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Jun 16, 2025
A Numbers Game | June 16, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | June 16, 2025 | Hour 1
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story. They always do. One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Monday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. This is Kelly Bidlin, everybody. Long time. Hey. Hello.
0:22
How you doing, man? I'm doing great, man. How you doing? I'm great. It is, uh, it is the middle of June, and there is too much to talk about. That's right. Too much. Savor it. [laughs] Uh, you're absolutely right.
0:33
[laughs] It's three weeks from now. Yeah, they're gonna be buddies. We roll in here like, "What are we talking about?" What are we doing? [laughs] Uh, on the show today, Matt Grissom talk college baseball with us.
0:42
We'll of course talk NBA finals as well. Uh, on the show with Raheem Palmer from The Ringer. Hey, Raheem's on the show today. Uh, Wes Reynolds, co-host of Long Shots. We'll talk U.S.
0:52
Open with him, his Indiana Pacers after they... Can I use the word gagged? Uh, they, they gagged the spread for sure. Mm. Uh, gagged the game too maybe. Uh, maybe that's harsh.
1:03
Anyway, maybe they gagged the whole thing, uh, on Friday night. We'll talk to Wes about the Pacers, and then Paul Spoor on baseball a little later on because obviously massive,
1:12
I don't wanna even say a massive trade, a, a heist in baseball took place. I- oh, and w- let's do a little sports talk radio at some point in this show and compare the basketball trade to the baseball trade yesterday.
1:24
Okay. Which was worse? That'll be the question. And which, and by the way, which of the two has betting implications?
1:30
I'm talking about Rafael Devers going, uh, d- Devers, Rafael Devers going to the, uh, to the Giants in baseball, which is massive for, uh, those of us who are Giants fans, uh, and then of course the Desmond Bane trade in the NBA.
1:42
We'll get to both of those, but we gotta start with golf, where J.J. Spaun, we, we pick up where we left off on Friday.
1:48
When we were on air Friday mo- uh, excuse me, it was Thursday morning when it first started, I guess, but J.J. Spaun was in the lead both of those mornings. Uh, he hadn't teed off yet on Friday.
1:58
He was at four under at the time. Um, then of course a rollercoaster of a weekend, including then starting yesterday where Spaun bog- uh, excuse me, hi- he has a five
2:09
on the first five holes of the t- of the, uh, round yesterday at Oakmont.
2:14
He bogeys five of the first six holes to fall at that point to two over par, and it looked like, when, you know, when you have that run of holes, uh, five or six in a row there at the beginning of the, of the round, you figure that's, I mean, you can't, you can bounce back from that.
2:28
And the answer is yes, he does, and he wins the United States Open as a pre-flop anywhere, depending on where you got this, if you are one of the human beings who got this. I don't know how many did.
2:39
But pre-flop, anywhere from between 120 to one to 150 to one to win this tournament. He wins his first major. He does so, uh, by being the only person under par in the end, one under.
2:50
You know how, uh, that went on the 18th hole.
2:52
It took a 64 and a half foot putt to get under par, but he does so, two-stroke lead over Robert McIntyre, uh, who finished one over, and then a three-stroke lead over Viktor Hovland, who sort of didn't have himself a day yesterday, sort of, um, was choppy throughout his day.
3:07
It was a, it was a fourth round, a final round that was interrupted by a monsoon, uh, at Oakmont.
3:13
But really the, the greatness for Spaun began on the 12th hole, where he sunk a 40-foot birdie putt to get to, uh, one over par and one back. Then he had a great tee shot on 13. He had to settle for par there.
3:26
Uh, but at 14, while, and by the way, while this is going on, Sam Burns, no one was affected more by the, uh, by the weather than Sam Burns was. Burns lipped a par putt at 12.
3:37
Um, then at 14, Spaun sinks a birdie putt to take the lead at even, but at 15 he drived it into the, uh, the slop, hit a horrible second shot. He ended up bogging 14.
3:49
But he then, uh, he then, uh, you know, comes back, or excuse me, was that n- at 14 did he end up? Yeah, he ends up bogging 14, and then he, uh, birdies 15.
3:57
He ends up birding 17, which is really the, the, the moment of the, um, of the tournament was when McIntyre got to one over par at 17. He ends up parring 18 to finish one over. Leader in the clubhouse, if you will.
4:12
But at 17, there he is, J.J. Spaun on the tee, needing the drive of his life, and boy did he get it.
4:19
He drives the green, has an eagle putt, misses that, but makes the short birdie putt, and then at 18, of course, the 64-foot, five-inch putt, where he really, he needed a two putt, right? Mm. To win the tournament.
4:32
That was the situation. He needed a two putt to win the tournament because McIntyre's in the clubhouse waiting one over. Hatton had already, you know, hacked up the 18th hole, so he wasn't gonna get there.
4:42
But instead of getting the two putt, he makes the putt. And you could almost see it, Kelly, on the face of, well, you could almost see it. You, you saw them in action.
4:49
Uh, Hatton being interviewed at the moment, who was upset with himself after what he did on 18, uh, down the stretch. He goes un- unbelievable, uh, watching that.
4:58
And then, uh, McIntyre's waiting for him in the clubhouse to see if we're gonna have a playoff tomorrow, uh, today, meaning tomorrow, yesterday. Um, just has to clap when he sinks the putt, when J.J.
5:07
Spaun sinks the putt. And what a, what an absolutely spectacular final round of the U.S. Open. You did not have J.J., I, I assume. Oh, no, I did not. Yeah.
5:15
I, I'm still waiting for that first text message or tweet too with anybody with an outright ticket- Yeah... on J.J. Spaun. [laughs] You know, we talked about it though on Friday.
5:22
It was the, uh, the, the, the differences between J.J. Spaun and some of those other no-names at the top of the leaderboard. Good for Spaun. He's a good player. He's been on the PGA Tour for a little while now.
5:32
Um, he's had some good finishes this year, and this is the, by far his best, and one that'll, uh, live on in his memory forever, that's for sure. For sure. Um, Wes Reynolds will have more to say about this.
5:42
Let me just ask you this, 'cause, uh, my buddy Tommy, uh, in DC texted this, and he's a, he's a casual golf fan. Um, we talked about, and I've talked about many times, I love the U.S. Open.
5:52
I love carnage on a golf course. That is what the U.S. Open is supposed to be. Because golf is the increase of tournaments where someone wins 20 under par or better has increased over the years. Yeah. Right?
6:03
Like it, it's definitely, like, a thing now that's not a anomaly. So I love, I wait for the U.S. Open.
6:09
And this one, obviously Um, with the weather, you know, it, it didn't, the, the rain didn't make it any easier on guys. You had, you know, Burns was like, "Do I have to shoot this?
6:20
If you're gonna stop play, I don't wanna sh- I don't wanna hit this ball." Uh, and it really affected him.
6:24
Scheffler had a moment where he's like, "If you're gonna stop play, I don't wanna hit this ball," and it really affected guys.
6:27
By the way, I do think that if it went to a fifth round or a sixth round, if golf was a five-round or six-round event, Scottie Scheffler would've won this at four over par. Everybody would've fallen back to him.
6:37
Yeah, Scheffler and Rahm sitting right there. Yeah, for sure. I mean, Rahm was hot on Sunday as well. Scheffler and Rahm, four over T7. You won't see that very often. Yeah. Same with my pick in the beginning.
6:48
But, uh, my buddy To- my buddy Tommy, yeah, he said, he goes, "Have you ever seen more golfers mad at the course in one round of golf?" And I think his implication was like, "Is this good?"
7:00
And my thing was, I get it, but I still love it.
7:02
So it's, it's really tough, 'cause I think, uh, first of all, VSiN.com, I thought the, I was chuckling this morning reading the, uh, uh, post-tournament thoughts that were up there from Matt Humans and Matt Brown, 'cause I [laughs]
7:14
like, from a betting standpoint, I think it's very, very difficult when you get a tournament that's, that's set up like this.
7:19
And it is just s- the course is so difficult that it, it starts to feel like you're throwing darts a- at what g- what golfers are gonna survive, um, through all this. I completely felt that way.
7:31
Now, now, I, I, it is very hard for me to sit here, though, Gil, 'cause we've talked about this a lot. You know how I feel about all the birdie fest too. There's too many of them.
7:39
So it, uh, is a little hypocritical of me and some of us to sit here and say, "Well, we can't have this, but I don't want this either."
7:45
So I mean, I think overall the g- PGA Tour and golf and the majors need to just get closer to the middle. I don't really wanna watch that a- a- for a US Open.
7:54
I know we like the tough tests of the US Open, but there's, you can have tough tests at US Opens where you have more than one guy under par. You know what I mean?
8:02
We can have a winning score at five, six, seven under in a more playable course that doesn't require so much, I think, luck out of some of these guys. Um, there's that, but it's, it, it is what it is.
8:14
Look, it, it was not a winning tournament for, for me. Um, I think it was a, a tournament I'm a bit upset with myself about. And look, I actually got bailed out. I thought it was gonna be a really ugly tournament.
8:24
Rahm sneaking into the back door and a top 10 finish for me- [laughs]... and Xander finishing at Top 20 were huge for me. Yeah.
8:30
Um, still a small losing tournament this week, but I, you know, every week when I, when I go handicap golf, what I try to do afterwards is make notes, right?
8:38
For, about the courses, about the tournaments, for when I circle back in years, years later, in the n- especially the next year. Is there anything I'm forgetting, right?
8:46
In the majors, outside of the Masters, it's tough to do too much of that with because you have a rotation of courses. Now, with the US Open, though, the one I'm mad at myself with is the, the US Open has become this now.
8:56
It's become pure carnage. We want pure carnage. That's what they give us every time that they're, that we play this basically every year now.
9:04
And it's, like, I think I didn't emphasize enough last week on Long Shots we're on this show, dial back your betting size.
9:09
It's fine to have bets going, but you need to dial back on what you're betting, because it is just becomes chaos almost every year at this point. It's gonna be the same thing next year, uh, as well. I think that's big.
9:20
I bet one miss the cut parlay. Should've bet more of those. Like, this is- Yeah... the tournament that you bet these at because of the, because of the tough conditions. And I only bet one.
9:28
I should've bet d- you know, different iterations of two, three, four. Um, so I'm a little upset with myself. Was not the best ha- a best bet tournament of the year for me.
9:36
I think the handicapping was funny, 'cause I think, I don't think there's much you can take away from this going forward. We have a signature event- Agree... this week with the Travelers Championship, and guess what?
9:45
The, the oddsmakers aren't taking much away from this tournament because the od- top of the odds boards sure looks a whole lot like it's looked like in the, in weeks past before this tournament.
9:53
So- A, a tournament where Rory McIlroy shot seven over and gets a T20. Yeah, yeah. I mean [laughs] It's amazing.
10:00
No, I, I do think within what you were saying there is the finest point of all of this, which is this was, from a betting standpoint, right, all, all the, uh, you know, happiness for JJ Spaun and anybody who might have had him, uh, i- in the world just from a, from a fan standpoint, good for him.
10:15
Uh, he wins his first major. Um, but from a betting standpoint, this was an exercise, distilled. This was an exercise in discipline. Yeah.
10:24
This was, this is the biggest event on a day where there was no NBA and there was no NHL and baseball was just doing its normal thing on any given day, besides the trade, obviously.
10:34
Um, this was front and center the only thing going pretty much, right? Besides baseball, uh, and WNBA. But you get the idea. And so your, uh, your whole thing was, okay, I mean, I have to make a bet on this, right?
10:47
But if you were really truthful with yourself, was there any way to have any conviction on any one of these guys over, over the rest of the field? No, 'cause even- No... e- even the final round, Gil. Yes.
10:59
Even, even the final, like I, admittedly, and like I didn't bet these guys. I bet Viktor Hovland live top 10 after the first round. We talked about that on Friday.
11:06
The, um, I mean, like Sam Burns was a, was a top 10 rated guy in my model this week. I, I stayed away from him. Okay, Burns would've made sense. Viktor Hovland, top 15 in my model this week.
11:17
Okay, maybe would've made sense if those two got home. But in the end, no, it's JJ Spaun, and it's, [laughs] it's just- Yeah... it's not an outright ticket that I would've ever considered.
11:25
Eh, I did not bet, and I have not seen many people, uh, make, making victory laps this morning about it. Was still awesome to watch, though. It was awesome to watch, though. Yeah. It was awesome to watch. Yeah.
11:33
And I was a lot happier when I did my final calculations this morning, [laughs] Gil, that I didn't lose as much as I thought I did. I can't believe they played through at one point. I can't believe we got done. Yeah.
11:41
I can't believe we're sitting here today- Yeah... not talking about golf still g- being played today. Uh, let's compare a trade, NBA versus MLB, and the betting implications of them, if there are, for both, next.
11:58
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12:38
Always appreciate the, uh, the feedback from everybody. Uh, let's see here. Do, do, do, do, do. Uh, Brian Schaefer, "Tomato, tomato, Devers, Devers, the Giants stole that trade."
12:48
Yes, we'll get to this, [laughs] we'll get to this momentarily. Uh, let's see. Devers was, uh, wasn't, uh, Ronald Reagan had a, a cabinet member with the last name Devers. That's where that came from, by the way. Hmm.
12:58
Um, you remember that. That's where [laughs] You remember that, Kelly. That's where that came from. Were you thinking about that a lot [laughs] over the week? No, but they spell the same way.
13:04
Uh, Michael Mish, "Does U- does ULU CA have a prayer tonight? Please ask Matt Grissom." I will, absolutely will.
13:11
Tim Bowers, I believe it's pronounced that way, he says, "Even when you guys don't make official picks, you are still informative, such as Friday, when you were discussing J.J. Spaun being in the lead.
13:19
When Kelly said," or we talked about this yesterday, Kelly, "When Kelly said that golf hardos knew he was a capable player, I decided to bet him at 9/1 to win." Good. Good for you. Nice.
13:29
Uh, that was, uh, you compared him to, at the time, it was Spaun and Lawrence- Yeah... at the top of the leaderboard, and you were saying Spaun's actually legit, Lawrence is not. Yeah. Right.
13:40
And it was the expect to, guys that could hang around [laughs] versus guys there's no way in hell hang around. And actually, uh, typically Captain Lawrence, he hung around for a lot longer than I thought he was going to.
13:50
Uh- But can I go just from this vsin.com article? Please. Yeah, this is re- for everybody out there that wants to say we don't talk about our lose, our losing weeks, right? Yeah. Or our losers. That's right.
14:00
I had a losing week, okay? Matt Youmans, worst career betting performance in a golf major, and there's no close second, okay? [laughs] That's great. It's Matt Brown. Yeah. Uh, da, da, da, da, da.
14:12
My biggest losing tournament in three years, okay? This is how tough it was for golf bettors out there. So it w- it was, it was rough. This was hard as hell to handicap.
14:21
Well, and it, and it makes sense 'cause the, it was, the golf was taken out of it, if you will. Yes. Right? Yeah. Just to a large degree.
14:26
And I'm just looking at my, like, log, 'cause I did a log starting at, like, the 12th hole, and it's just so funny, the c- the carnage of every... I mean, just the one highlight.
14:33
At 15, Burns tries to get [laughs] an official to give him relief. Denied. He then tries to get more re- That was carnage... more relief. Denied again.
14:40
He then hooks it into the rough and duffs another one two feet in front of him. What, what do you have a, hit it out of a puddle? Like- What, like, what was, what do we do? It's just so bad.
14:47
Then chips past the hole, eventually double bogeys. F- he, at that point, he was five over since the restart. God, he, him and Scott just, they could not handle that.
14:55
I was wondering, I texted you this, I was wondering if the rain was gonna slow down these lightning-fast greens, and I was wondering if that was gonna help the guys' score at the end, but it really didn't.
15:04
And Burns was the most affected by it. Burns, one of the best putters on the PGA Tour. It was, it was pretty clear that that th... the, the rain-logged course threw him off his game.
15:14
Uh, Jonathan Call, "Is Kelly Bidlin a long lost brother of Tyrrell Hatton?" Unbelievable. [laughs] I have heard that one before. [laughs] Such a great reaction. I love Tyrrell Hatton. It's okay.
15:23
Remember, there's a big difference, Gil, between the Jordan Spieths of the world and the Tyrrell Hatton and Brooks Koepkas. If you get furious at golf, I love that because that, we can all relate to that.
15:33
Whiny, complainy Jordan Spieth on the other hand, though, I can't. I just want him to shut up. When Spi- Spieth was scolding his putter on 18, I thought you were gonna run out onto the green and tackle him.
15:43
I really, I'm really afraid of ever being near him at a live PGA Tour event. Let me just read this one. This is from Kyle Portearns, who says, "J.J.
15:49
Spaun said he started today going to the CVS at 3:00 AM because his daughter was throwing up. Ended up winning the US Open on Father's Day. Maybe the most dad life Sunday of all time." How cool of a story is that?
16:00
That's awesome. That's a great- It's awesome. Um, okay, two huge, two huge trades yesterday, and I wanna ask the sports talk radio question of which was worse.
16:09
I have my answer, but I'm, but I just think because they both happened on the same day. 'Cause I, 'cause for some people, when they first were reported, you were like, "This can't be real."
16:18
The first one was the NBA trade that happened in the morning, where the Grizzlies traded Desmond Bane to the Orlando Magic for Mantavious Caldwell-Pope, Cole Anthony, four unprotected first round picks, and one first round pick swap.
16:32
Now, I get it from the Magic standpoint. If you believe Desmond Bane added to Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Jalen Suggs puts you in a true Eastern Conference, top of conference conversation.
16:46
Like, if you believe that, okay, I get it. However, when did Desmond Bane become Kevin Durant? Or pick your NBA superstar. Let me just say this again.
16:56
Um, Desmond Bane for, forget KCP and Cole Anthony, four unprotected first round picks, one first round pick swap Sunday. And you can sit there and say, "Well, maybe th- those picks won't be that high.
17:07
They won't be lottery picks." I, I don't care. Still, unless you think this is catapulting you to the top of the conference, what in the world was that? That's the first thing. That's p- that's trade number one.
17:17
But trade number two, which I think is the winner, but I think I do have to ask the question of which is worse.
17:22
The Giants acquire Rafael Devers from the Boston Red Sox, who of course was available, not because of anything on the field, but because, uh, when they acquired, when the Red Sox acquired Alex Bregman, uh, Devers was like, "Wait a minute, you signed me to be the third base.
17:36
I'm not leaving third base." And they're like, "You, you probably should leave third base." And finally he, he acquiesced. He, he relented. He's like, "All right, fine. I'll be a DH.
17:43
I don't wanna be a DH, but I'll be a DH." And then when they had injuries at first base, they're like, "Oh, you, you gotta play first base for us." He's like, "Wait a minute. Now you told me not to have my glove anymore.
17:49
I don't wanna play first base." Anyway, the, the, and, and then, uh, the, the owner- Oh, man... went to see him in Kansas City, and apparently Devers didn't respond to him.
17:58
Um, so it was a whole thing, and they, they finally, this was in the works for a while now, we found out, but the Giants acquire Rafael Devers, um, for Jordan Hicks, Kyle Harrison, and then, uh, also James Tibbs and Jose Báez.
18:11
But, but Hicks and Harrison, literally, if you look at the Giants' stats for pitchers- The bottom two ERAs are Harrison and Hicks.
18:20
Harrison, who I never loved as a Giants fan, and Hicks, who, he could never really find his place as either a starter or a closer, you know, or anything in the bullpen for the Giants.
18:28
I had high hopes for Hicks, but it never really worked out, um, with them. And so it was just really for the, they acquired Devers for a poo-poo platter is what it ends up being.
18:37
And so you get an elite offensive player in Devers in a sport, Kelly, where offense is so down that the scarcity of elite offensive players is such that you have to make this deal.
18:49
This is Buster Posey's first great deal here. So the, the, you know, the, the Giants now, they get themselves the elite offensive player. They give up nothing for him.
18:58
I love that the Giants, who were only one game behind the Dodgers going into yesterday, going into Sunday night baseball last night, now are two games behind.
19:05
I love that they didn't think to themselves, "Oh, look, we're so good already." They've been trying to acquire a big bat, a big free agent bat for many years now.
19:14
Obviously, Shohei and Judge being the two biggest names on that. But they haven't had a player like this, um, since maybe, you know, the Barry Lamar Bonds days.
19:24
Uh, Devers, three-time All-Star, 15 home run of the season hit yesterday. San Francisco's left-handed hitters combined this year have a grand total of 14 homers. That's it. He's got 15 by himself. Wow.
19:36
Uh, he's slashing 272/401/504 this is year, this year. 272/401/504, which doesn't sound like much if this was a different era of baseball, but is spectacular in this era of baseball.
19:47
Um, and they, they add that to an offense that entered play Sunday ranked 14th in runs per game and 21st in home runs. It's an absolute heist from that standpoint.
19:56
The only, the only counterarguments you could make, right? Oh, well, the Giants have to take on the rest of his salary t- you know, nine years, 266 and a half million.
20:04
That's actually not that big of a negative given the Giants', uh, situation salary cap-wise and, and how it relates to the luxury tax. And then the only other thing is there is a, there might be a ballpark issue.
20:15
I will concede that, right? Devers hits a lot off that monster, um, which would turn into outs in San Francisco. So there is that. I will concede this point, but generally speaking, it's a complete heist.
20:27
So Kelly, I think the Red Sox, I think the, the Red Sox trade is, is worse than the, uh, than the Memphis, excuse me, than the Orlando Magic giving up all those picks. But I think both are really eye-opening. Yeah.
20:40
Are they-- Can we really compare them though? 'Cause isn't this the Red Sox just kinda dumping Devers? Like, this is, you're a nightmare in the clubhouse, like, we gotta get rid of you. Right.
20:49
But it's the, it's what did you get back for it? You got nothing back for him. Yeah, yeah. So yes, I do think you can. Okay. I mean, from two different standpoints.
20:57
I'm obviously- Well, then that one's, that one's way worse... I'm obviously forcing this into a, a discussion. Yeah, yeah. Right, right, right. Right?
21:01
But I'm just saying the, I get it from a Magic perspective, but you gotta think that getting Bain, and by the way, I get it, the Magic were the worst team three-point percentage.
21:10
Bain's really great from three, especially stop and shoot threes that were the worst. He's really good at that. Yes. I think it's, like, 42%. I see how they think it fits, but you're the basketball guy.
21:20
I mean, right now, where would you put Orlando with that trade [laughs] in, in the East? Oh, uh, okay. So I, I got a lot to say about this actually on both sides.
21:28
Orlando, for a team that does nothing in free agency or trades, a g- a team that has thrived off of, "Okay, we're gonna do whatever we do in the draft. We're not a big market NBA team.
21:39
We're not gonna attract some of these big stars. We are what we are." That's basically what their ownership has been for years. For them to go out and make a move like this,
21:47
I think if you're a Magic fan or an NBA fan, okay, sure, i- it's, hey, I gotta, I got respect. You're gonna try to make a legit run at winning the Eastern Conference next year.
21:55
And we saw how much this team has grown up, uh, this past year. I, I mean, it, it was, when Suggs got hurt, their season really got derailed.
22:03
If everybody remembers how good that team was before Suggs was, w- uh, got injured. With him, Franz, Paolo Banchero, they're great.
22:12
Desmond Bane, okay, so he's a good fit from the sense that, like you said, gr- good three-point shooter. He's a good defensive player. So he still doesn't take away from the team identity that is the Magic.
22:22
I just don't know if you were gonna add somebody else, he's not a true creator or ball handler, and then you kinda add that on to already Franz and Paolo that are okay. They kinda have to be played through.
22:35
I just don't know. I, I don't know if it's a perfect fit, but I respect, I res- It, it also doesn't induce a single bet for you on the Magic, I would imagine. No, no. And by the way, Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr.
22:45
reportedly they're not going anywhere. That was the other part of it. Giants, maybe there is a bet next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:56
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23:16
Download Profit X today with code VSiN and earn up to 200 in profit cash over your first month. Profit X, check it out. You'll thank me later. Um, Skill Alexander. We get tweets at Beating The Book.
23:29
Um, "Fairway Fred had Ortiz and Cameron Young T5 and Henley T10." Wow. "By the way, I lived south of San Francisco, uh, '69 to '92. Gil, what years were you there? Raiders, Niners, Warriors, A's, all world champs.
23:43
Great time to live in The Bay." I was there, uh, between '95 and 2016. '95 to 20... actually 2017. Um, numbers guys. I made we... and by the way, I still go there every weekend if I can. Uh, numbers guys.
23:56
I made one bet pre f- uh, that's the one I just read. No, no. Here's one. I made one bet, uh, pre-flop.
24:02
Scotty, the numbers guy says, "But JJ at 22/1 on Thursday afternoon wire to wire, there's still value just getting in as the tourney moves on, right?"
24:09
Well, yes, if you happen to pick the right guy in this one, but our point was, or at least my point was, how could you really discern at this tournament who was the guy to beat here?
24:18
Bet of the week, he said, "Scotty -190 Sunday morning to make top 10 ties win." Yeah, that's a good bet. Uh, Topher Barron. "It wasn't much, but during the rain delay I decided to grab some spawn at 16/1.
24:28
Helped lessen the blow of the week." Good for you. And Wet Willy Colon I can't wait for Kevin Durant to get traded for one first round pick later this week while the Magic gave up four for Bane. My point exactly.
24:39
Um, and then NCI95 gambler, "The true question about the Devers trade to San Francisco is some of us have the Giants most wins in June thanks to you, Gil, when you broke it down for the month.
24:48
You made a great argument other than the offense not being great. Any thoughts?"
24:51
Um, yeah, I'm doing it again, and by I'm doing it again, meaning I'm picking like the di- I break it down to like four or five teams, and then I end up picking the one that's not the-- I end up betting the one that's not gonna get there, but the others are all in it.
25:03
Right now the Houston Astros are at the top of the June most wins update. They're 10 and three. Then there is a complete scrum at nine. By the way, the, uh, Tigers have eight, eight and six.
25:14
But I had in that group of nine, I had the Diamondbacks and Giants as live. I still think the Diamondbacks with that really easy nine out of last 10 games finish might be the team to beat here.
25:24
Remember, it was the Astros June of last year that won it for us at 25 to one and 17 to one. Um, so there are the Giants. I don't know how that relates to June.
25:33
Obviously it's a small sample size here with 13 games left for the Giants. Um, but absolutely over the long term. And that's the point of, you know, what we were talking about with those two trades is
25:43
timing-wise, the Giants Red Sox trade. So for the Giants, great. You didn't rest on your laurels of your good performance here early in the year. Your wins are already banked, right?
25:53
Right now with this trade, the Giants are World Series title 22 to one. This is at DraftKings. Uh, National League Pennant 12 to one, NL West seven to one, uh, to make the playoffs minus 170, to win 90 games even money.
26:11
And to win 90 games, by the way, 40 to one best record if you're interested in that.
26:16
Uh, to win 90 games, the Giants, who are 41 and 31 right now with a 569 win percentage, will have to go 49 and 41 the rest of the way, which is a 544 win percentage.
26:28
So not even as good of a pace as they've gotten to this point. Strength of schedule 23rd, only 490 if you're into that kind of thing. I'm really not.
26:37
10 more games against the Dodgers, I should point out within that, even though it's an easy-ish compared to other teams' remaining strength of schedule.
26:44
Um, if you ask me which of those one bets, if I was forced to make one of them, and I'm not forced to, I may actually make it. The one bet I would make there above all, and I just gave you
26:55
six different odds for six different markets, 12 to one to win the NL Pennant would be the one I would choose.
27:02
Because I don't think I wanna live through the balance of the season having them trying to overtake the Dodgers. And oh, by the way, the Padres and Diamondbacks are also in the mix.
27:13
But over a 162 game haul and 90 plus games left, or 90 exactly for the Giants, I don't wanna live through a, to win the division and only get seven to one on that.
27:24
I would rather them have extra opportunity to make the playoffs with wild cards.
27:29
And by the way, this trade hurts teams like the Brewers, and Cardinals, and the Mets, and the Phillies, and the Reds, and everybody who's competing with the Giants for a wild card.
27:38
12 to one, because once you get into the postseason in baseball, then it is the crapshoot that Billy Beane always hated. So that's the one I would play. 12 to one, Giants to win the Pennant.
27:48
Good luck on June there, uh, to anybody who has them. Uh, let's talk some college baseball. Matt Grissom is still in Omaha. He joins us courtesy of the Progressive guest line. You can follow him on Twitter @GrissomOnX.
27:59
Chilling at the Hilton in Omaha. What are you paying per night there, uh, Matt? Just curious. It's an asinine amount of money. [laughs] Uh, it's like 900 to 1,100 per night. Wow. Oh, man. Price gouging at- Yeah...
28:15
its finest. If the College World Series isn't going on, how much do you think that room is? Just curiosity. $130. [laughs] I was just gonna say 150 bucks. Like- Fantastic... no more than that. [laughs] Good job, Omaha.
28:28
It is, it is... Yeah, it is like a average Hilton Garden Inn from 2004. Hilton Garden Inn. So- Which I think is like third tier Hilton, if I'm not mistaken. That's third tier. S- I think so...
28:41
solid, uh, continental breakfast in the morning at least? No. No? They got the like- No... cereal machines? No. They're not... Nope. Well, Matt, good for you. They're not even doing that.
28:49
Uh, how, how has this been going so far for you? And let me, for those who have missed, 'cause our whole network was over there at Omaha, everybody having a great old time.
28:57
Uh, what has happened so far, and we're still, we're still playing baseball here into tonight. But bracket one, Coastal Carolina right now in the driver's seat.
29:06
Coastal Carolina beat Arizona, then they beat Oregon State, so they have moved on in the bracket, if you will.
29:12
Uh, Arizona is gone because then in the double elimination, they lost to Louisville, who had lost to Oregon State. So you have now a situation where Coastal Carolina has advanced.
29:23
Um, Oregon State is gonna play Louisville to find out who plays Coastal Carolina. In bracket number two, where we're not quite as far along, UCLA beat Murray State, LSU beat Arkansas.
29:34
So Arkansas goes to the loser's bracket, if you will, to take on Murray State. That game is today. And as is, by the way, the UCLA LSU game. So let's... First of all, how have you done so far with these?
29:47
I was pretty good start, two and one, two and one, I think the first two days. And then, uh, yesterday was the O for. Um, just really thought Oregon State was gonna be able to keep it tight.
30:00
Coastal Carolina has kind of proved that they are the best team on that side of the bracket. The, the pitching performance by Jacob Morrison to get to 12 and 0, to get the Sh- Chanticleers team,
30:11
uh, their 25th straight win was just absolutely amazing. Uh, talked in the post game and, and Kevin Schnall's just a, a fired up guy that you wanna play for.
30:22
Uh, he, he even got on the media for pronouncing-- Everybody was saying Chanticleers, and he said, "Say it with me. It's Chanticleers." So it's time to start putting respect on this team.
30:33
You know, they're, they're RPI number one now. They're not just the mid-major darling
30:38
I think they're here and, and they're a real threat to win it all Yeah, they were the one team of the eight, now seven, that I had actually considered betting a future on and didn't. So of course they're gonna win it.
30:50
Uh, right now it's LSU plus 120 to win the College World Series, followed by the Chanticleers of Coastal Carolina at- Yes... plus 195.
30:58
Everybody else six to one or longer, and a lot of that has to do with based on where teams are in the brackets currently. Again, Coastal has moved along. So as far as the two games today, let's start with those.
31:07
Do you have a play on either Oregon State Louisville or in bracket number two, UCLA LSU? Uh, UCLA LSU is going to be one. I'll probably just lay it with, with LSU.
31:22
Um, you've also got Arkansas Murray State today at 1:00, and then that's another one where the line is just so out of this world. I think Arkansas is minus 500. Mm-hmm. It's been a great run for Dan Skurka's team.
31:35
I think they're gonna show up. You know, they plated four runs there at the end of the UCLA game to try to fight back. That ended up covering the two and a half run line.
31:44
I still think Murray State can score runs, but I think Arkansas really struggling against Cade Anderson.
31:50
They're, they're gonna play a lot more loose against this Murray State team and, and a, a pitcher that's gonna go for them. Isaac Silva has a 4.07 Sierra, uh, and a high five ERA.
32:01
So I, I think the Razorbacks will be able to hit the ball around, but again, I think the Racers will too. I like this game to go over. I think the last time I saw it, it was about 10 and a half.
32:12
Uh, we've had two overs cash, albeit they both came to late game blowups by the bullpen. But, um, uh, I think both teams are gonna be able to get runs here this morning. Yeah.
32:24
Murray State, Arkansas, uh, the first one today, that is an elimination game. Uh, and then it is UCLA, uh, LSU, by the way. I misspoke. Yeah, Oregon State Louisville is in bracket one. That's tomorrow.
32:34
But then UCLA LSU, we actually, actually had a tweet about this. What do you think about this game? I, we make it minus two and a half for LSU. That's where the score projections sit.
32:46
I think that's what the run line is too. If, if I had to choose one, I would probably back LSU.
32:52
I, I think, you know, Jay Johnson in the press conference said they did just enough to beat Arkansas and, and the, that was a very good pitching team. Uh, Jared Jones went O for five at the plate with five strikeouts.
33:05
He stayed after practice and was taking some extra BP. So I don't think you get that type of performance out of him. I still think this LSU team is very good.
33:14
You know, coming into this, I had Arkansas LSU as the one-two. I actually think Arkansas is in a favorable position if you don't have a futures ticket yet to go ahead and back them.
33:25
Their pitching depth is good enough to get there, but they're gonna have to beat LSU two times in a row. So, uh, I, I think they can do it, but I also think LSU wins in a dominant fashion today against UCLA. Okay.
33:39
There you go. And he even, even slipped- So I would play the run line... even slipped in Arkansas on a future. Thank you, Matt. NBA next with Raheem Palmer. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:55
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34:06
Use promo code VSiN200 to claim a 20% rebate for your first 60 days, up to $200. Head to firstbet.com today. Gil Alexander and Kelly Bidlin alongside as well. Uh, can I repeat Matt Grissom's, uh, bets for everybody?
34:18
Mm-hmm. Since I know you are, are faithfully, uh, putting them down, uh, for vsin.com/picks, every host, every guest.
34:24
We'll recap these at the end of the show too, but for today's game, he's on the over in the Murray State Arkansas game.
34:31
Then he is on tonight's game, LSU minus two and a half runs against UCLA, and he threw in a little future there on Arkansas at six to one. So there you go from Matt Grissom. We get tweets at beatingthebook.
34:43
Always appreciate the feedback. Y'all are the best. Real Nicks, "Isn't Chapman a Gold Glove third baseman?
34:48
I know he's hurt, but when he comes back, Devers is right back in the same situation, and I totally agree with you that there's a ton of hits in Fenway that are outs in San Francisco."
34:56
Yeah, it's the only real counterargument from the, from the Giants' standpoint of them just thinking it's a complete heist, is that a lot of those shots to left will turn into outs.
35:07
Um, but as far as Chapman being a Gold Glove third baseman, yes. But remember, Devers' whole thing with the, with the Red Sox was, "Well, you signed me. You signed me to this 10-year deal for me to be a third baseman."
35:19
The Giants ain't doing that, so he doesn't have that argument to fall back on here. Uh, by the way, I wanna shout out Andrew from Pennsylvania and Mike from, where did Mike say he was from?
35:29
Who were, who were outside the studio before Andrew has just posted a picture of him and Dave Ross, who he caught outside. Oh, nice. Couldn't have been nicer, the both of them, uh, hanging out outside the studio.
35:38
Nathan Mallinson, "Gil, if you had to compare Terry McLaurin to another wide receiver in the NFL, who would it be?" I don't know. He's incomparable. [laughs] I love that tweet. Uh, and then, uh, this is, let's see. Yeah.
35:48
William saying thanks to you, 'cause he had J.J. Spaun at, uh, plus 1180. G- I'm, I'm glad. This makes me feel better. You know? Like, honestly. It was not a good tournament.
35:57
I'm glad that some people- And all you said was, "Spaun is legit, Lawrence is not." [laughs] That's all I said. That's all you said. I, I didn't bet it. [laughs] So good on you guys.
36:05
Uh, Brian M., "My cousin spent a year at Coastal Carolina. She said they had a whole intro thing on how to say the team name and had some hand movements that went along with it."
36:12
And, um- Oh, I've definitely been saying it wrong for two years. I have too. Mike Zills, Duke 90, "The most important part of the Giants' Magic trade is it makes Yankees fans happy."
36:21
Uh, can I, uh, put some numbers to that, what he's talking about right here?
36:24
Devers against the Yankees career, career against the Yankees, let me get this, uh, 31 homers in 119 career games, including 18 and 64 at Yankee Stadium. Hit a homer against them yesterday.
36:40
Red Sox have won eight of 10, and they're like, "We're gonna trade Devers now." By the way, if you're a Red Sox fan, you've won eight of 10, they trade Devers. Remember, of course, they traded Mookie Betts.
36:50
They lost Xander Bogaerts in free agency. You've just gotta be-- If you're a Gi- if you're a Red Sox fan, you've just gotta pee beside yourself The Mookie one still, ugh Ev- even though you have this great future, right?
36:59
Your roster looks like it'll be great in the future, but you've just gotta be bent. Yeah, the, you're, you're right. The Mookie one is worse than all of them. Uh, and then finally, the last one here, Sam Ginsberg.
37:07
"Sons of friends of mine go to Coastal Carolina, and they also would correct us on how to pronounce the nickname, since it basically translates to Big Roosters. It's hard to feel too bad if you mispronounce the name."
37:15
Uh, no mispronouncing this gentleman's name. Raheem Palmer joining us now from The Ringer, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Uh, you can follow Raheem at one of the great Twitter handles of all time.
37:24
Let me, uh, get it correct here. I am Rahstradamus. That's R-A-H-S tradamus. How you doing, Raheem? Good to see you. [laughs] I'm good. Life is good. We live out here in Vegas.
37:35
It's nice and cool early in the morning before the heat wave pops off, so life is good. I can't complain. All right. So, uh, well, hold on now. You, you used to live in Vegas, then you went away.
37:43
You're back in Vegas now permanently. All right. So what it was, was I came out here for a fight, and I ended up living in the Cosmopolitan for, like, seven months straight. Um- Wow...
37:53
I, I'm from Philadelphia, born and raised, but I was, like, probably on one of the greatest gambling runs of all time, and I just didn't wanna go home.
37:59
[laughs] And then I loved it out here so much that I decided to move out here. Good for you. Well, all right. Yeah. Well, we hope to see you soon then. So let's get- Well, we'll get him in studio at some point- Yeah...
38:09
'cause aren't you like two miles down the road now, right, Raheem? You're, like, right here. Yeah, give us your address. I'm literally, I'm literally around the corner from y'all.
38:15
[laughs] I live, like, I live in between the Arts District and Fremont. Give us your address and social security number, Raheem, while you're here. Um, okay. [laughs] Uh, game five tonight, NBA Finals.
38:26
We literally, because of golf and the trades, we l- have not talked even about this finals yet. We've, uh, 50 minutes into the show, so shame on us. But, um, here's the deal.
38:35
Thunder s- Thunder are favored by nine and a half. Games one and two back in OKC was a little more than that. The total's a little down, too. It's at 224.
38:44
This, of course, coming after a game four in which the Pacers were up 10 late in the third quarter, had plenty of opportunities. That's the part of the game that was kind of overlooked. Mm.
38:57
Late third quarter, they had plenty of opportunities to increase that lead. Couldn't, and we know the rest of it, and we'll get into the play-by-play of Matherin, uh, down the stretch in a bit. But here we are now.
39:09
It's a de facto best of three. What are we doing with the nine-and-a-half spread and the 224 total tonight? All right. So I, like, I've been telling people this, but I, I think this series is just so goofy.
39:19
[laughs] Like, I mean, you had the Thunder win a, a, a game in which they shot three for 16 from three. Um, and then you had the Pacers win a game in which they had 24 turnovers.
39:32
So, I mean, this is a very, very tough series, and I think, you know, the biggest thing is that Oklahoma City, they have the better defense, but Indiana has the better offense. So, um, this one is tough for me.
39:42
If I'm looking at full season numbers, I'm at Thunder minus 10 and a half. But I don't think you can use full season numbers for this.
39:50
If I look at my, just my postseason number, my post All-Star break numbers, I'm at, like, Indiana plus eight and a half or so.
39:57
So I think if this gets to 10, you kinda gotta pull it on Indiana, but I think there's some real blowout potential here. I think the biggest thing with Oklahoma City is we know that they're a juggernaut at home.
40:08
You're nine and two straight up at home, eight and three against the spread. I think if Oklahoma City wins this, I think you need to be playing Oklahoma City alternates.
40:16
I mean, I'm thinking, you know, 14 and a half, 15 and a half.
40:19
I think if they win, it's probably gonna be in a blowout fashion, but I think, you know, if this is a close game, Indiana, I mean, they have the offense to pull it off.
40:26
They didn't pull it off the other night, but, I mean, I think ultimately a closer game favors Indiana. So I think it's a, it's a very extreme likely of outcomes.
40:35
You're absolutely right about the, uh, the OKC three-point shooting. Three of 16, 18.8%, and they still find a way to win it, let alone [laughs] cover- let alone covering it on top of that.
40:48
Um, do you feel like the, the ending of that game, and specifically, l- let's put it this, let me ask it the, more simply. Mm-hmm.
40:56
Do you feel like the, the controversy about not calling the travel on SGA, a lot of push-offs by the Thunder going uncalled in that game, do you think that was overblown in game four?
41:10
Yeah, I definitely think it's overblown. At the end of the day, Indiana, they went O for A from three in the fourth quarter. If they, if they go three for A from three, they win that game, you know?
41:19
It was right there, and I think Oklahoma City stole that game. Ultimately, you know, the two-game game, the two-man game between J Dub and SGA, it worked out. SGA stole that game.
41:31
So at the end of the day, it just, you know, you look at the defense. Dort, the Dort- the defense that Dort had on Halliburton was tremendous.
41:38
Even though he was, you know, pulling and pushing and everything like that, at the end of the day, you can't call everything. This is the NBA Finals, so things are gonna get physical.
41:46
So, um, I think Oklahoma City, they just out-physical Indiana. And I think Indiana, they have a Miles Turner problem. I mean, he's doing his best, um, [smacks lips] Harrison Barnes in the 2016 finals.
41:57
I mean, right now you're looking at a guy who's four for 20 from three. Like, he's gotta make some open looks. So, um, you know, ultimately, you know, Oklahoma City stole that.
42:06
I don't wanna give too much credit to the refs, 'cause I don't think it's all on the, the refs.
42:10
When you're up four, you know, with three minutes to go, and you don't, I mean, you really don't score again, you can't blame the refs. All right. So your strategy tonight is some, some alternate spreads on OKC?
42:21
Like, you think the blowout potential is such that- Um, it... I'm not gonna personally play it. I'm just, I mean, me personally, I think, I think there's two ways to play this.
42:29
If you like Oklahoma City, I think you play alternates. But I think if this gets to 10 and a half, I'm gonna be on Indiana just because I, I think my model has this at 8.6. That's how I'm gonna approach it.
42:40
But me personally, I think the most consistent thing in this series is Pascal Siakam. I think they still haven't priced his props, you know, high enough.
42:48
I mean, he's, he's, he's probably, you know, one of the most volume scorers for Indiana. I'm playing his, his over 19 and a half points.
42:56
I've been playing his over for this entire series, uh, and it's been getting there, so I'm gonna continue to play it. Raheem, any thoughts on this total tonight? I, I, it, it's open low, now it keeps rising up.
43:06
We've seen a lot of unders come through. I, the lack of three-point shooting, I... Man, there's got a lot of questions. I'm leaning towards the under tonight. Wanna, wanna hear what you gotta say about that, though.
43:16
So my model's at 222 and a half. So I would be looking under. Actually, I just see it just went up to 225 in some places, so [laughs] um, it just seems like the public is all over the over.
43:27
But with the way that Oklahoma s- City, they're not shooting a ton of threes. I mean, if you look at, you know, game one and two, they shot 30 and 36 threes. But since then, you're looking at 22 threes and 16 threes.
43:39
And, you know, Indiana's doing a good job at limiting Oklahoma City Thunder's, you know, three-point frequency. Um, you know, and that's another case for the Indiana cover.
43:48
If they're not getting up threes, how can they cover a big margin, um, outside of Indiana turnovers? So, um, I'd be looking under here. I, I just think, you know, this is getting pushed up a, a little bit too high for...
43:59
I mean, the pace isn't even that fast. You're looking at, like, 99 possessions for, you know, m- much of these games. Raheem, really appreciate it. Uh, let's all enjoy game five tonight.
44:08
And, and what, again, what I will say is if somehow the Pacers can pull this off, and I know game four was a real setback towards that, but if they can, to me, it's the greatest run of any team in any postseason in North America, uh, that we've ever seen.
44:20
Raheem, appreciate it, man. Don't be a stranger. Oh, I mean, b- oh, definitely, definitely. One thing I wanna say, I think this series is going seven. Uh, like I, I truly do.
44:27
I think you could almost blindly play the team who loses tonight to win the series. Okay. Um, I think you'll get a good price if this, this goes seven.
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