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Jun 16, 2025
A Numbers Game | June 16, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | June 16, 2025 | Hour 2
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44:35
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. So all those idiots who believe in analytics- This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:08
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin. What a busy ides of June.
0:22
I know it's the day after the ides of June. It's the 16th. But what a busy mid-June kind of day this is, with the US Open, uh, having taken place, obviously the final round yesterday, a, a tremendous win by JJ Spaun.
0:33
Obviously the NBA finals tonight, the NHL Stanley Cup finals going to game six with Florida up three to two and having the ball on their racket, the puck on their racket. Mixing metaphors. Eh.
0:43
Uh, for game six, Edmonton with just this complete meh performance in game five. Yeah. Uh, and then we talked about the two trades, right? In, in football and baseball.
0:52
Wes Reynolds standing by to talk with us about golf and the NBA, and of course, uh, Paul Sporer on Major League Baseball coming up. Uh, Steve Fezzik has, uh, texted in. We get texts and tweets.
1:01
Fezzik saying, um, and I love this, he said, uh, this... Oh, no, this is Fezzik talking about the Giants, where he says, [lip smacks] uh, "Giants pre-flop season win total was 79 and a half," the San Francisco Giants.
1:11
"If there's one team in the markets that have consistently been undervalued [clears throat] over the past few years, it's the Giants magic team." Yes, it is. The Steelers of Major League Baseball.
1:21
That's the other thing that you have to factor in when you're considering all those Giants bets, is Giants magic. You really do have to factor that in. Yeah, you really do. Um- You really do...
1:29
Sam Ginsburg, "Sons of friends of mine," oh, that's the Coastal Carolina one. We already talked about that. Chris Heath, "What's the catch with this free money for gas app? Don't trust it.
1:36
I'll just be late for the concert."
1:37
[laughs] This is related to one of our many, often, how can I put this, frequently run commercials where the girl goes to the other girl, she goes, "Girl, you gonna be late for the concert 'cause you getting, trying to get f- cheaper gas?"
1:49
It's a great commercial. [laughs] Uh, ScottyB726, who has to be, uh, with apologies to Wes Reynolds, has to be the biggest Pacers fan in the world, or at least he's the angriest Pacers fan in the world.
1:59
Uh- S- sounds like... he says, "The OKC win is tarnished. Raheem saying the Pacers missing threes is an excuse doesn't change the Foster effect. But everybody that likes OKC I guess is automatically right."
2:08
Um- Scott Foster was Scott Foster, though. Like, I'm not gonna say, like, he- The extender... l- like, he had an impact, but it was like, it was all over the place.
2:17
Scott Foster drives me nuts because what do we always say about refs? Just be consistent. There was nothing consistent in that game- No... from a refereeing standpoint. It was, [groans] "Let's stop the game.
2:29
I want some attention. Let me, let me go to the monitor and figure this one out," and then, like, he'd call something that you, like, you were like, "Wait, what? How, how's that a flagrant? How's that not a flagrant?"
2:37
[laughs] "What are we talking about?" Uh, last one here. Jesse Welch, "Don't worry about us Red Sox fans, Gil.
2:42
We're still holding onto those great memories of that two-year stretch of Alex Verdugo, because that's legitimately all we ended up getting from Mookie Betts."
2:48
[snorts] [laughs] Uh, let- let's bring in Wes Reynolds, 'cause there's tons to talk about here. Uh, Wes joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, part of the glue that holds this entire operation together.
2:56
Wes Reynolds One, that's the number one, that's where you can follow him on Twitter. Wes, wearing the old Pacers shirt. How you doing, man? Good morning. I'm doing well, Gil.
3:06
Uh, eagerly anticipating, uh, game number five. Uh, you were talking about ScottyB there on the Twitter.
3:12
Uh, ScottyB sounded like about 18,000 other people that, uh, exited Gainbridge Fieldhouse, uh, with, on, uh, Friday night, uh, who were, uh, not very happy with Scott Foster. Not very happy with Scott Foster.
3:23
I mean, there was, there was possessions where, like, the, the OKC was pushing off, like, three different times. I'm like, "How is this going uncalled?" Obviously the SGA travel that was uncalled.
3:32
But I just wanna, for, for those of us who had the Pacers plus the points, can I just go through the last part of this? And Wes, you can react to it. Oh, God, yeah. It's 86-76, late in the third quarter.
3:40
Mc- McConnell misses a 15-footer. Toppin misses two free throws. Siakam misses a 16-footer. Siakam misses a 20-footer. OKC scores, Siakam makes one of two, and OKC scores.
3:50
So it's only a seven-point lead at the end of the third quarter. It should've been, like, 14. That's the first thing. Then the fourth quarter, right? OKC finally ties it up at 89 apiece.
3:59
Then they take the lead, 104-103 with 2:21 left. First lead since it was 55-53 after Shai scored seven in a row. Then Dort steals it from Thunder, from, uh, Dor- Dort steals it from Turner, pardon me.
4:11
At 105-103 with under two minutes, Haliburton misses a three, Williams misses a three, Nembhard misses a 21-footer. Nesmith fouls Shai with 44 second left, s- 44 seconds left. He makes both. 107-103.
4:23
Remember, the spread is six or six and a half. Turner misses a three with 28 seconds left, but they get the rebound. Holmgren fouls Mathurin. He misses two free throws. OKC rebound, timeout.
4:32
Mathurin fouls before the inbounds. [laughs] Oh, God. SGA hits the, uh, the free throw because it's before the inbounds pass. They get the ball. They're up 108-103. Haliburton steals it from Caruso.
4:43
Math- So you're like, "Oh, wait. Maybe they will cover." Mathurin fouled by Williams, who makes one of two to make it 108-104. Mathurin fouls before the inbounds.
4:51
SGA makes both free throws, one on, uh, makes a f- makes the free throw. 109-104. Then Nembhard fouls him, 111-104, 'cause he makes both. And then Haliburton chucks up the 39-footer.
5:01
Man, just one of the, uh- Oh, my God... wor- For those of you guys with the Pacers tickets, that was- That's me... that was brutal. That was brutal.
5:08
And Ma- Benedict Mathurin, Wes, I, I, I already know that, like, in two years from now when you're like, "Hey, Kelly, who are s- your top five, uh, favorite NBA players?"
5:15
I know Benedict Mathurin's gonna be in there because he's quickly becoming, like, the old JR Smith of the NBA. Like, g- he's either the GOAT or the goat, right?
5:23
Like, he's either, like, amazing or does that stuff at the end of the game. Well, so Wes, the question is, really stupid of him or you kind of understand it 'cause they did need a steal?
5:36
I think it was kind of like right there in the moment and, and you're just reacting. You're like, "Okay, now the sense of urgency has kicked in now that we're down for may- almost the first time in the game."
5:45
So yeah, just maybe, maybe a brain cramp. But what, what we were saying about the Foster calls, you gotta also tie that in to the fact that the Pacers got stagnant offensively.
5:55
And part of that is what Oklahoma City did defensively in terms of the fact that, that they took that, that, you know, that double, like, stacked screen that they like to run- Mm-hmm... for Halliburton.
6:04
They took that away. They switched everything. And the Pacers I think got caught in that two-man game, that little two-man pick and roll game with Halliburton and Myles Turner.
6:14
And My- Myles has not had a very good series, at least from an offensive standpoint. And Pascal Siakam is just right there in the corner still waiting for the ball.
6:23
And, and it's gotta be Pascal because that's where, that's where they were so effective in game three I think offensively, is they have Nesmith in one corner, Pascal Siakam in the other corner.
6:33
So they're in what are called the dunker spots 'cause they're there for those backdoor cuts, and they were getting those all night long in game number three because Halliburton and Nembhard, TJ McConnell as well in, in the second unit minutes, they were driving the paint and getting to the rim.
6:49
So that leaves that open for Toppin and Siakam and, and, uh, Nesmith to have those backdoor cuts and get those buckets in the paint.
6:56
I think they scored 60 points in the paint in game number three, and I think the Pacers got a little bit away from that in the final few minutes in, in the fourth quarter. And, uh, that's really what did them in.
7:06
Are we gonna look back at that whole sequence I just talked about from end of third quarter to end of game as the difference in this as to who wins the NBA championship?
7:15
The, the, look, the market certainly thinks so, but I, I, I mean, I, I'm not, I'm not sure about that. I just think you have adjustments in these series, you know?
7:25
What you did one game before, you don't, you aren't as effective in, in the next game because you have two very good coaches I think with Mark Daniel and Rick Carlisle.
7:33
So they're gonna be smart and look at this film and, and make these, and make these adjustments.
7:37
And I thought the Thunder did a very good job of, of taking things away, and there's, weren't able to have the mismatches that they had in game number three 'cause the guy that has the most mismatches I think in this series is Pascal Siakam because there's sometimes he gets on Shai, who is smaller than Pascal Siakam, so that's a mismatch.
7:56
And then where Pascal gets a bigger guy like Hartenstein, that's a mismatch in the Pacers' favor. So you know, they, they just weren't able... They, they got that taken away, and there was just a lot of dribbling.
8:08
Uh, you know, I hate to be kind of rudimentary in the analysis here, but it wa- it just felt like the Pacers were dribble, dribble, dribble forever and not drive to the basket and not quick and decisive.
8:18
And quick and decisive is how Indiana wins games in this series. It's not an accident that they've won 14 games in the NBA playoffs, uh, uh, this postseason.
8:27
So that could be, Gil, but I think the Pacers got a little bit more fight in them. I know the conventional wisdom in the mainstream media, not that they're ever wrong- [laughs]... is that- What?
8:38
What are you talking about?... this series is a wrap. This is over. It's all over. This series is a wrap. Uh, you know, the, the Pacers, uh, you know, they just blew it.
8:45
Maybe, maybe that'll turn out to be true, but I don't think so. I think the Pacers got a couple punches left in them. What do you do with tonight's game?
8:51
They're catching nine and a half are the Pacers, and it's 224 and a half now consensus. This total is a little muted from what it was in previous games. Yeah, it is. You're right, Gil. It is.
9:03
Uh, I, and I'm trying to figure out how to play this because I do think you're getting the discount now because these, these, these games have gone un- these games have gone under.
9:13
But we know two-two in game five historically is a really good situation for an under because it is the pivotal game at the Risen Center. And like Magic Johnson with his tweets, "This is the pivotal game of the series."
9:25
[laughs] Well, you don't say. It's two to two in, in, in game, in game number five. Uh- Thanks, Magic. [laughs] So, uh, yeah, e- exactly, on the cutting edge of, uh, of, uh, great basketball analysis.
9:35
But so I don't know what I'm gonna do with the total. What I think on the side is I'm gonna do a little bit of a split here. I'll take the first half with the Pacers.
9:43
That is now up to six, and I think even six and a half- Wow... at one national store- Oh, man... uh, where you got, you take juice on the Pacers' side, and then nine and a half.
9:51
So I'll probably go half and half on the side here with the Pacers because I'm not willing to count them out.
9:56
I think going back to the three days in between actually helps a team that had a devastating loss, that feels like they had one, had one get away.
10:05
So, uh, you know, it certainly h- certainly helped the Thunder in game number two when that happened, and maybe that helps the Pacers tonight in game number five.
10:12
Yeah, game six is Thursday back in Indiana, game seven if necessary back in OKC on Sunday, correct? Sunday would be the game? Yep. Yeah. Thursday, Sunday, yep. Uh, are we going to seven, Wes? I believe we are, Gil.
10:26
Uh, I, I think, uh, the Pacers, if they don't win tonight, I think that they're gonna get game six, uh, on, on Thursday. I just, th- this team consistently gets discounted.
10:36
I, I think that, "Oh, these guys are over," and look, they don't have the best player, and the team that has the best player in the series more often than not wins the series.
10:44
So I do think that they are going to take this, uh, seven. Un- unfortunately, I can't make it back for game six on Thursday, so, uh, I said goodbye to Indianapolis last night saying, "I'll see you for the parade." Right.
10:55
There you go. So I'm trying to be positive about my team. And of course I'm getting flack for that. It's like, "No, I'm just gonna be n- uh, negative about them and say, 'Eh, they're gonna lose.'"
11:03
Cut to a shot of Wes on a float dur- in the middle of the parade- Yeah... in India- in Indiana. Indianapolis, pardon me.
11:09
Uh, win or lose in this NBA finals, power rank the Pacers pre-flop next year Eastern Conference, obviously pre-draft as well. Yeah. Yeah, I think that they're, they're, they...
11:22
You know, with, with the Tatum injury, you certainly have to have them ahead of Boston. Uh, I would probably have them second, but we'll see. Herb Simon, you know, is 90 years old, and they're gonna go for it.
11:32
I think they're gonna beat the tax, uh, this off season. Just, just clarifying. Second to Cleveland? Yes. Back into Cleveland. Okay. Uh, let's talk some golf. US Open yesterday, Wes has thoughts abounding.
11:46
Coming up, Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
Don't forget to check out the Sharp Plays, unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, and alerts directly from the pros. sharpplays.com. Check 'em out.
12:13
Gil Alexander, Kelly Billin alongside, producer number nine, so much more than a producer. What's up? Uh, Wes Reynolds kind enough to join us for a, a second consecutive segment. Wes, I wanna bring you in for this.
12:22
By the way, Wes, uh, co-host of Long Shots, of course, uh, as well, with Kelly and Matt Brown. Greatest golf betting podcast there ever was. Shout out to, uh, our buddy Brady Cannon as well for, uh, Long Shots history.
12:34
Uh, but this awful announcing tweet, this has nothing to do with anything, but I, but Todd just put this out in the group text. The awful announcing twick, uh, tweet.
12:41
Think about all the things we've talked about this morning, right? US Open, NBA finals, uh, the two trades, obviously in baseball and basketball. We even touched on hockey a little bit.
12:49
He, uh, awful announcing, he goes, "Let's check in on ESPN." [laughs] And you know, do you know what the s- what the chyron at the bottom says?
12:56
Uh, "When is Dak Pre- [laughs] when is Dak Prescott's legacy ri- " Uh, what does it say? "What is Dak Prescott's legacy right now?" Man. Really? You couldn't wait till tomorrow to talk about that?
13:07
I hope the producers and graphic operators there just kinda save so- like bookmark some of these graphics, 'cause like you don't need to rebuild that. You're gonna use it seven times this year. Wes, what are they doing?
13:16
Come on. Can't talk about Dak another day? It's ridiculous. I know. I know. I, they, they, they played the hits, Gil. [laughs] They played the hits. Yeah, play the hits. Yep. They play the hits. They play the hits.
13:26
We gotta play Sexual Healing by Marvin Gaye once an hour. We gotta do it. Uh, all right, uh, I wanna ask you about this before we get into the, uh, details of the US Open final round yesterday.
13:34
But this is a tweet from James Kogan, @JamesKogan26, some big golf news.
13:39
"Three sources tell me the PGA Tour is expected to, quote, sunset, unquote, Jay Monahan as commissioner after a transition period with new CEO Brian Rolapp.
13:49
Monahan could leave his post as soon as the end of this year and as late as the end of next," sources said. Big golf news, Wes? Yeah, probably.
13:59
It's probably bigger than maybe we see what meets the eye right now, because we gotta, you know, see how this is gonna shake out.
14:05
Of course, uh, you know, what's gonna continue, if anything, with, uh, any type of détente or even negotiations for one with, with, uh, PGA Tour and LIV.
14:17
Uh, you know, certainly this guy has been with the NFL, so he was a, he was a whale in that league too, so he's dealt with some very powerful people.
14:26
Uh, and uh, look, I think the people that are behind LIV, by the way, they don't wanna stop with golf.
14:32
Look, they wanna eventually get into team ownership here in the United States, you know, the NFL being the Holy Grail. But they wanna own an NBA team.
14:39
They wanna own a Major League Baseball team, a NASCAR team, what have you. So it just, you know, m- more, more business news and then, uh, more, more, uh, rich, rich people, uh, getting richer- Yeah...
14:50
and, uh, sometimes the fans take the short end of the stick on that.
14:54
Yeah, We- Wes, I don't know where you're at with this whole merger happening, but man, it, it feels like this is getting further and further away from ever happening, and I don't know that either side cares anymore.
15:06
Like this is... I, I mean, like, they just took away the guy that's supposed to be the heir apparent to Roger Goodell in the NFL. Like that is a big, that's a big hire for the PGA Tour, and I...
15:15
You know, you're talk- you hear from some of these players at LIV, some of the big names talking about, you know, missing the PGA Tour set up and everything. I, I don't-- where do you think we're at in two years?
15:24
[sighs] I, probably not any closer together.
15:29
I, I would, uh, I, you know, I, there was a thought a cou- a- about a year and a half ago that maybe, maybe they were right there, but I, I, I j- I just don't see it at this point. Especially...
15:39
And, and TV money determines all of this. Mm-hmm.
15:41
And if you get a TV partner and, and, and LIV has been on the Fox networks, uh, often not on, on m- on big Fox, often on FS1 on like a taped delay 'cause they've had so many international events to start the year.
15:54
But LIV has a different strategy. They say that they're Formula 1 of golf and that PGA Tour is NASCAR. I don't know if I exactly agree with that analogy from Mr. O'Neill, the CEO of LIV.
16:06
But, you know, it does seem like it's getting further and further apart. All right, Wes, to the US Open yesterday. Uh, J.J. Spaun wins his first major.
16:15
Uh, he does so in dramatic fashion with a 64-foot, five-inch putt to win it outright in a way that neither Robert McIntyre or T- Tyrrell Hatton could've gotten too upset about afterwards, uh, because they're like, "Well, if he's gonna sink that, we had no chance anyway."
16:29
Uh, along with it, the $4.3 million, uh, first prize purse that comes with that for J.J., so congratulations to him and his family.
16:36
Uh, usually after a golf tournament, especially a major, I'll come to you and I'll say, "Hey, you know, what are your big takeaways from this?" This is a little different.
16:44
Are there any takeaways to be had from the nature of this golf tournament, and did you enjoy it the way the carnage ensued?
16:51
Well, and, and when I, and, and I think when we watch these majors, and a lot of our discussions on this program and other mediums have been about the dominant players winning, the Scottie Schefflers and the Rory McIlroys and, and, uh, the Bryson DeChambeus, the top-end guys, Jon Rahm as well, always winning these majors.
17:09
There are times where you get outliers winning major championships. We saw it with Brian Harman a couple years ago. We saw it with Wyndham Clark at the US Open at LA Country Club. Maybe we have this here.
17:20
And I, and I don't know long term what the ceiling is gonna be for J.J.
17:23
Spaun, so I don't wanna say, "Oh, the guy can never win a major again," but we have had Hall of Famers in the game of golf that only have one major championship in their career: Jim Furyk, Fred Couples, Davis Love, Mark O'Meara, with what, and others.
17:40
Wi- with what Scottie and Rory and these guys are doing We take that for granted, I think, that it's hard to win a major. It is so hard.
17:48
It's hard to, not only for a player, it's hard for bettors to hit these, uh, these, uh, golf tournaments. Uh, my nearest pursuer was Viktor Hovland. So J.J.
17:56
Spaun has been a good player for a while, especially over the last two years. Just has the one win on, on to his mantle, now has two, but that happens. So credit to J.J. Spaun.
18:06
He putted the best of anybody in the tournament. I think he was second in strokes he gained putting, was third in scrambling, and around the green, pay, played the most difference like we kind of thought that it would.
18:16
We just didn't land on this guy. But to your second question of did I enjoy it, I actually did.
18:21
And man, I'm looking like I'm in the minority scrolling social media this morning, because they didn't like that it played too hard. You can never, like, make people happy. You can't. Like, it's gonna play too easy.
18:30
You can't, man. Or it's going to play too hard. It's the US Open. It's supposed to be hard. Yeah. I like the fact that one under par was the winning score.
18:38
Now, it got maybe borderline unplayable with the weather yesterday, where I thought, "Okay, maybe they're gonna call it," but they didn't wanna call it that late with only, like, four or five holes to go.
18:47
But Sam Burns just took that rotten break, which, which ended up costing him the tournament, basically hitting out of a puddle. Just a terrible break. But I thought J.J. Spaun was a deserved champion.
18:59
When you, when you make the putts, and it wasn't just the one on the 18th hole and then the 17th to go birdie-birdie to finish the US Open. Last guy to do that was Rahm at Torrey Pines.
19:09
He did it pretty much all week, and that's why he's now the US Open champion. Yeah, and, and by the way, speaking of adversity, right? We talked about how he, he sh- he had a five on the first five holes, right?
19:18
He went first five holes, five, five, five, five, five. Uh, he bogeyed five out of the first six, and one of those, the ultimate adversity, he hits the pin, right? And it bounces, what, 50 yards backwards. Um- Mm-hmm...
19:31
imagine his state of mind at that point, thinking, "Well, this is, I got all the way, three great rounds. You know, I was in the driver's seat here. Well, this is all going to crap."
19:40
And he was able to, uh, you know, I compare it to tennis, like, just steely of mind to just be able to stay in it, and he persevered. So he absolutely, uh, did so.
19:49
Now, that said, from a betting standpoint, he's playing this week. You fade him, right? Is that what we're doing? Uh, probably.
19:54
Uh, probably so here in, in, in the, uh, Travelers, because we've even seen one of the greats of all time, Rory McIlroy, struggle after winning a career achievement like the career Grand Slam at the Masters.
20:06
So sometimes these guys, when you accomplish something, there's just that, "Oh my God," now, now you're busy, too, 'cause you're doing media, and you're going on all the talk shows, primetime and late night, and all of a sudden you're a bigger celebrity than you were, you know, 24, 48 hours ago.
20:23
So, so that, that does change things, absolutely. But, uh, uh, but credit to him because not only the putts, but just the tough course, the rough, everything was just so tough at Oakmont. But that's what the US Open is.
20:35
It was a typical US Open, and the guy that grinds the best is the one that's gonna win.
20:40
The other thing you said in there, which I don't wanna l- g- let gloss by, but it has nothing to do with betting, but I'm, I'm into this kind of stuff.
20:45
You were saying, like, you know, so many of these golfers get into the Hall of Fame with just one major. Like, when you said Mark O'Meara- Mm-hmm... I was like, "Mark O'Meara's in the Golf Hall of Fame?"
20:54
I loved Adam Scott's attitude, where he's like, "I've won one major," right? "I won the Masters so many years ago. I should not be in the Hall of Fame unless I win a second."
21:04
And that's what his whole, you know, raison d'être is moving forward in golf. He's all about that. I think that's such a great attitude. I think it is, too.
21:14
And, and, and to those other guys that I named, they had other wins and other significant accomplishments in the game. This is just J.J. Spaun's second career PGA Tour win.
21:23
He, he, you know, he had been kind of knocking on the door over the last year to 18 months. Uh, had a, a couple thirds and a couple seconds. But yeah, look, you, you get these sometimes.
21:34
You mentioned, I think, uh, last week with Miguel about Andy North. Yeah. Where he won the two US Opens and I think one other PGA Tour event in his entire career.
21:44
That's, that's the, the anomalies that you get in big-time professional golf, where some of these guys, it's like, wow, this guy's a four-time major champion, but never won anything else, and then you have other guys like the Furyks and the like that won like 20, 25 times on the PGA Tour that only have one major.
22:00
Yeah. And when I asked you about that for a modern-day comp, didn't you say Adam Scott? Am I correct in that? I, I did not say Adam Scott. I said Matt Fitzpatrick. Matt Fitzpatrick. That's it.
22:08
Who, by the way, he was the only guy- Yeah... that putted better than J.J. Spaun in the putting stats, but he finished down in the, uh, low 30s. Yeah. Wes, it was awesome.
22:17
Um, we'll obviously be listening to Long Shots with you and Kelly and Matt Brown. Long Shots each and every week, uh, available where you get all your podcasts. @wesreynolds1 for Wes, and good luck with the Pacers, man.
22:28
We're rooting for you. You bet, fellas. Thank you very much for having me. Thank you. Wes Reynolds, everybody. We gotta get Wes in studio also. Yes, we do.
22:36
We get Raheem in here, we'll get Wes in here, get everybody together in here. Another big golf tournament this week, the final signature event of the year, Gil. Well, what are we doing? It's- No idea... it's June.
22:46
Coming back, baseball with Paul Spohrer. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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23:32
If you mention Kelly Bidlin, it's still a three-month free trial. Yeah. Yeah. Um, again, that's xcutta.com, X-C-U-T-T-A. Futures wagering just got a serious upgrade.
23:44
Gil Alexander, by the way, Trip Tepper, thank you on Twitter, pointing out that Mark O'Meara actually won two majors. Won a Master, a Masters and a British Open, as we used to call it, not the Open Championship.
23:54
We used to call it the British Open. You say the British Open over there, they go crazy. Like, "What?" Yeah, but we ain't over there, so you can say either way here.
24:00
His pro career was very solid, and he was an elite amateur player as well, Trip adds. So yes, Mark O'Meara with two majors to his name. Uh, let's talk some baseball.
24:08
Paul Spoor joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. He joins us from Austin, Texas. You can follow him on Twitter @Spoor. And of course, he's got the Sleeper and the Bust podcast. He's at FanGraphs.
24:18
He does it all. A baseball life. How you doing, Paul? Guys, I'm doing well. I mentioned, uh, Kelly on X Cutter, and they, they banned my account. [laughs] So. Yeah. That was, uh- So maybe don't use it. Yeah.
24:30
That's right. Right. Men- mention VSIN to get a three-month promo code, but if you mention Kelly, nothing extra. It's interesting. Yeah. No respect. All right, you know where I'm gonna start here, Paul. Yes.
24:39
Yesterday, blockbuster trade. Boston Red Sox, the franchise that traded Mookie Betts and
24:47
lost Xander Bogaerts in free agency, and now a disgruntled and a apparently un-, um, reconcilable, irreconcilable issue with Devers where he didn't want to play, you know, he didn't want to leave third base, then he didn't want to DH, but he said, "All right, fine, I'll leave third base.
25:03
I'll DH." Then he didn't want to play first base when they asked him to. "You told me I wasn't gonna use my glove this year. I don't want to play first base." Right.
25:09
And then John Henry, the owner, tried to meet him in Kansas City to talk about it all. That didn't go well. Some reports that he didn't, uh, Devers didn't respond to texts or didn't, the meeting didn't go well.
25:19
Whatever it was, it didn't go well. Um, but the Red Sox had won eight of 10. They were looking good. They swept the Yankees, and didn't matter. Goodbye, Devers. He goes to the Giants.
25:28
The interesting part, of course, is that they didn't get anything for him. Uh, if you consider Kyle Harrison and, uh, Jordan Hicks to be nothing, which I kind of do as a Giants guy, plus two prospects as well.
25:40
Um- Sure... my question to you is, where does this rank in the all-time heists?
25:47
Well, it, it actually doesn't really come close to, to the Mookie one, 'cause I, you know, I'd venture to say that they did get something here, given that you're also, you have to account for the money, too, right?
25:58
The fact that the Giants are taking the money really brings down the bar of what you're gonna get with it. Because the real benefit here is getting out from under a long-term contract like that.
26:08
So that takes the burden off the team acquiring him, the Giants in this case, in terms of what they have to give back. But they get back, you know, a really compelling arm with Harrison. I'm not a huge Hicks guy.
26:17
I'm really, uh, I'm really a Hicks, uh, as a bullpen guy, and, and bullpen only.
26:23
One thing I will say, Boston's pitching development is, you know, among the higher, uh, ends on the team, and so m- or, uh, among the league, excuse me.
26:32
So maybe they have something in mind that they can kind of get the best out of Hicks. But I think Harrison is the potential gem here, and a couple prospects.
26:40
Jose Bello and James Tibbs III, uh, neither a, a blockbuster prospect. But, you know, they got something here.
26:48
They didn't just get out from under the money, which is what they did with the Betts deal, because they included David Price with it.
26:53
You know, Verdugo was a known name, and maybe that's why that one felt better for some folks, is because people knew Verdugo. But nah, they got way worse in the Betts deal, especially when you consider the talent.
27:04
Um, I think Boston actually did okay here. And then I like it for San Francisco 'cause it's just, like, another free agent signing, and they've been trying to make moves recent years. And they, you know...
27:15
I w- I don't want to say they've come up short, but obviously they didn't get Judge. They didn't, they haven't been getting the top, top dog. And I know Adames hasn't been good, but I still like him long term.
27:23
They got Chapman, and now they bring in Devers. Obviously, if Devers was against first base and DH, though, this isn't the best spot for him, because he's playing first base all the way here. Uh, or, or DH. Yeah.
27:35
Like, so he's gonna have to get used to that. Clearly, the well was poisoned in Boston, though. And it was, like you said, irreconcilable, which I'm surprised at. I, I didn't necessarily think it was.
27:45
I thought there was some bluster early on. I thought they d- had smoothed things out. He, uh, Devers was playing well, so I thought that was good to go.
27:53
But no, here we are, and we get this massive deal in mid-June, which you don't usually see in baseball. Um, I mentioned the money earlier. So you're right.
28:02
The Giants do now take on the full extent of the remaining nine years and- Mm-hmm... 266 and a half million left on Devers' original deal, which was 10 years, 313. So that's all the Giants.
28:15
The other thing I'd point out, and this is, this is the part that you don't hear in the mainstream, right, as much. And I, you know, I mentioned this.
28:21
So the last time a big player exchanged between Boston and San Francisco, uh, Pablo Sandoval, three-time World Series champ- Yeah... went over to Boston.
28:29
And I remember at the time saying, I was like, "This is bad for Boston," because they clearly don't understand ballpark factor. Sandoval sprays. Right. It's not gonna work at Fenway. And it didn't, by the way.
28:41
It did not work. This is, that I concede this point as a Giants guy, right? I concede this point. This is all right for as, as well as Devers does, a lot of his shots are oppo, right?
28:51
Oppo power that go off the Monster, right? Those are gonna turn into a lot of outs in San Francisco as well. So there is a scenario where this is not quite as awesome as we're making it out to be. You would agree?
29:04
Yeah, I do think getting a left-hander is something that Giants fans, uh, you want to temper your expectations just in general.
29:12
There's a reason that the two big free agents that they signed were right-handers with Adames and Chapman, and the other mega free agent that they went after in recent years was a right-hander in Aaron Judge.
29:22
Because it is tougher for lefties. Of course, we think about splash hits and how great those are, you know, obviously. But those are still pretty rare. And I know Devers is somebody who can do them.
29:32
Don't be surprised if he pops a few, uh, you know, uh, water shots this year in San Francisco.
29:37
But the bottom line is the home run park factor for lefties in San Francisco the last three years is second worst in the league- Mm-hmm... behind only Kauffman Stadium. So, you know, can he transition?
29:49
Can he, can he lean more into some of the batting average aspects that we've seen from him?
29:53
Like you pointed out with Devers, though, that's come from beating, uh, you know, the, the Green Monster and ripping doubles and singles off of there.
30:01
And now those are lazy fly outs if they don't reach the wall in right field in San Francisco. So it's gonna be an interesting dynamic. Does he become more of, like, a 260 low 20s home run hitter?
30:14
That's not as special as two 70s and 30 bombs. So it does remain to be seen what they have here with Devers. Interesting move for the Giants. I don't hate it, but I, I...
30:25
It does remain to be seen how well it's gonna go given the park. All right, you must make, let's play you must make one of these bets. Ready for this? Okay. All right, you must make one of these bets.
30:34
All of these are, I'm gonna give you six Giants potential bets and one Red Sox bets.
30:38
Giants to win the World Series, 22/1, to win the Pennant, 12/1, to win the division, 7/1, to make the playoffs, -170, to win 90 games, even money, 40/1 best record in baseball. Red Sox, +170 to make the playoffs.
30:56
You must make one of these bets. What do you make? Okay. If I must make one, I, I think I'm gonna take the Sox to make the playoffs. Sox, +170. 'Cause they're, they're in that- Yeah...
31:08
yeah, they're in that jumbled mess, and obviously he is a loss.
31:11
I'm not gonna sit here and pretend that Devers isn't a loss for them, 'cause remember, he started off slow and everyone's like, "It's all the off-season stuff carrying over. This is gonna be a nightmare year."
31:19
And then he was, like, the dialed in best hitter in baseball for a while, and he's smoothed out to be, like, very good. He has a 148 WRC plus right now with 15 bombs, does Devers.
31:28
So it's a loss for them, but I do think it's replaceable. I think they're gonna continue. And now they can kind of use this as a way to say, uh, "Let's go out and get more talent because we got this money off the books."
31:39
They can go out and make a bigger trade for an offensive piece that they're more comfortable with. And I think that their pitching is obviously helped by getting Harrison and Hicks. So yeah, I'm gonna go Red Sox there.
31:49
I still believe in this team. They've got enough talent here, even though they've lost some guys due to injury and now the Devers trade. I think they can get there.
31:56
Yeah, Red Sox, by the way, big dogs tonight, uh, in Major League Baseball at, uh, Seattle. Are they tonight? Yes, I believe they're at Seattle. Yes, yes. Um, what about DFS today? What would you...
32:07
Plus 162 dogs, by the way, at Seattle. Uh, what would you do- Boy... DFS-wise today? I, I'm, I'm a little surprised that they're that big of dogs.
32:14
I know Giolito hasn't been amazing, but when he's been good, he's been really good, and Logan Gilbert's coming off the IL. So that's, that's an interesting setup there for me with, uh, with regards to, uh, Boston.
32:24
But as far as DFS today, uh, pitching is light, so I think it's gonna be wide open slate.
32:29
I think some people are even gonna try to get cute and go with Dylan Cease against the Dodgers, 'cause he dominated them last time out. I like Clarke Schmidt, Zach Eflin, and Ryan Pepiot at the top end.
32:38
I wanna pick on Carson Palmquist of the, uh, Rockies, of course. José Soriano going to Yankee Stadium is very scary, even though he's coming off of a great start. And J.P.
32:47
Sears, uh, with your Houston Astros is another guy I wanna pick on. So kind of a haves, have-nots type of board today. Should be wide open, though, because there are no definitively obvious starters to go with.
32:58
Uh, last thing. Cleveland Guardians under was my favorite season win total before the season started. They have finally fallen to 500 now. Uh, I have them under 82 and a half, I believe it was.
33:09
They've finally fallen to 500 as their, as their record starts to finally match their run differential. What do you think about that club moving forward? Are they gonna finish above or below 500?
33:19
I, I think it is gonna be below. I worried about the bullpen repeating, and I thought they would have enough starting pitching to make up for it this year. I've become concerned about that.
33:27
It's really gonna hinge on Ortiz, Saccone, and Logan Allen. Yeah. That's what I think. Paul, always great to talk to you. Appreciate it, man. Thank you. Hey, thanks y'all. Take care. Paul Sporer, @Sporer on Twitter.
33:40
Check it out. We'll come back. We'll recap all the bets. It's the Numbers Game right here at VSiN. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:55
Back on the Numbers Game live at Circa Resort Casino, Downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander. It's my little buddy Kelly Bilow, everybody, otherwise known as the two guys that didn't go to Omaha.
34:04
[laughs] And mad, and mad humans. And there was others. [laughs] And mad humans. [laughs] That's right. Uh, before we recap our bets, we get tweets that beat of the book. Chance Copper Pot, "So are the ladies..."
34:13
[laughs] This is, everybody wants to know about these commercials. "So the ladies are going out of the way for cheaper gas, but what concert are they late to? Some summer jam, for sure."
34:21
It's a great point, Chance Copper Pot. We don't know what concert they were late for in that commercial. That is, that is a good point because there are- It's an excellent point...
34:26
there are some concerts it's more okay to be late for than others. Right, and you can't be late for this. Who was the opener? What's that? What's the opener? The op- what's the opener?
34:34
[laughs] If it's a summer jam, which groups are you missing? Which artists are you missing?
34:37
Sup- uh, Scuba Scott, "When I got word of the Devers trade yesterday, my brain immediately defaulted back to the infamous Nolan Ryan for Jim Fregosi trade." Kelly was just saying the same thing off air. Oh, man.
34:48
I can't stop comparing. He was like, "This reminds me of that Jim Fregosi trade with Nolan Ryan back in the day." Uh- Oh, man... Scuba, we, it, I like that we all have our own memories of a, of a comp to this.
34:58
Chris Heath, "You were out that week, but what was the Boston season win total, which Fezzik gave out under?" Oh, yeah, he, it was in the high 70s, I believe, right?
35:08
It, but, uh, the reason, his reas- Whatever their highest point was, for sure. [laughs] Yeah.
35:14
It, it was based on the fact that Bregman was out, and Bregman, by the way, now might come back right before the All-Star break for the Red Sox, but that was, that was that. Um,
35:25
Mark Brashear, I shouldn't have said this out loud, but he says, "The Circa commercial for Millions and Survivors says enter in Vegas, play from anywhere.
35:31
Does this mean a proxy is no longer needed for out-of-state players?" That is not what that means. I th- I think it means the exact opposite.
35:37
Yeah, that is not- Play from anywhere as in sign up for a proxy service Yeah, you must, you must have a proxy service. Uh, let's recap all the bets. Uh, I got one here.
35:43
I'm playing the Pacers, plus nine f- plus nine and a half points tonight. By the way, this is all brought to you by G Bank, the official bank of VSiN.
35:49
Every show, every host, every guest, every sport recapped by, uh, G Bank, courtesy of G Bank at the end of every show. I've got the Pacers plus the points tonight. Um, I think you were just saying this off air, too.
36:01
It's like, I get it. You, you like Oklahoma City, but are you really laying those points? Nah. I can't do that. Not at all. No.
36:07
And in tr- full transparency, I di- I pl- I took the nine and a half in the Killer Sports contest. Yes.
36:13
Um- Oh, which by the way- I'm not betting it, but- Which by the way, we must say, Steve Fezzik has clinched the title. Mm. Steve Fezzik is your VSiN Killer Sports Challenge winner.
36:21
Za- I, I think I was texting you this on Fr- Friday. Zach Cohen is even keeled as it comes, right? Oh. Like, nicest guy, calm. Let me guess, he had the Pacers plus the points. And I, I- Yeah...
36:32
for the first time, I could, I could hear the emotion in his text messages- Oh, it's brutal... of l- of losing this thing to Steve. He had never, he had never mentioned it once on air with us. Never.
36:42
That, hey, it was just, you know, it's classic Zach. Just happy to be here, you know, gonna play along.
36:47
But it, it's typical Fezzik because of, you know, look, he won the contest, so he deserves it, but of course he wins by luck box. [laughs] Of course he wins by luck box. He is b- That's a brutal beat, man...
36:57
he is a great bettor, but he is the luckiest dude I've ever met in my life on this stuff. So Zach loses by that, by losing on the Pacers. Zach still has not clinched second.
37:06
There is one other m- monetary prize, $500 for second. Steve wins $3,000 for first. He has pledged to give that $3,000 to Circa room attendants.
37:16
So now how Circa's gonna divide that amongst the room attendants is a whole nother story, but that's what he's doing. Yeah, how does that work? What does everybody get? I have no idea.
37:23
Everybody gets $2.50 [laughs] Everybody- There's a lot of them [laughs]... enjoy. Uh, but that was nice of Steve to do anyway. Who's in third right now? It's the thought that counts. I'm in third, but no, but I'm done.
37:33
So Doug Kazerian can either finish second- Oh... third, or fourth. He can either finish below me, above me, or above Zach for second place. He's got two bullets left in the holster. Okay.
37:45
So Doug rebounded a bit here recently too. Doug rebounded a bit. So the, the four of us, Steve, Zach, me, and Doug, we were the only ones really alive in this last round, and so that's how that's shaking out.
37:54
So Steve, uh, I think Alex Christiansen was fifth. Uh, we were all sort of on death's door anyway. Right, yeah. Steve just needed, his magic number was one.
38:02
Zach was the only one with a real chance, and then the Pacers, you know what happened there. I still have the Tigers 16 to 1 most wins in June. They have eight wins. Astros have 10 currently. Not good. [laughs] Not good.
38:15
Um, Tigers blew a game to the Reds yesterday. And I still have Leon Draisaitl nine to one to win Conn Smythe. And of course, if the Oilers don't win, that's toast.
38:24
But he does, he is a little shorter than, uh, Connor McDavid in the Oilers market. So if somehow the Oilers can win game six and seven, and after all it is hockey, anything can happen, Draisaitl is still very much live.
38:35
But Oilers, what was that in game five? Uh, no-show. Good God. Um, that was a, y- we talked about the s- the sphincteritis we've talked about before. That felt that way too. Yeah. Yeah, I agree.
38:45
They, they seemed super nervous. Matt Grissom was on to talk college baseball with us. Uh, he's got day game over tonight between Arkansas and Murray State, over 10 and a half in the, uh, in the College World Series.
38:56
Remember, that is a, uh, that is a game in bracket number two. That is an elimination game. Elimination game. The loser is dunzo.
39:04
Over 10 and a half in the afternoon game, and then tonight he's got LSU minus two and a half runs versus UCLA for a chance to advance in bracket number two. Do you have anything? I got nada, man. Nada? I got nada. Okay.
39:19
I'll, I'll hit on my NBA thoughts after we get through Wes. All right, let's do that. After we, uh, after we talk about, oh, Wes, I'm sorry.
39:25
Wes Reynolds with me, Pacers plus nine and a half, and even more than that, he likes Pacers plus six first half. I may join Wes on that too. I would. Yeah. I, I, I think if you're looking at Pacers tonight, I would.
39:36
Yeah, why not? GBank, all of it courtesy of GBank, the official bank of VSiN. And by the way, once again, GBank with the old, with the old trifecta. And you know what I'm gonna do, Kelly, before we go ahead?
39:47
I'm gonna go back to a previous day to find the GBank read. That's what I'm gonna do, and then I'm gonna tell you that the G- That means Kelly didn't send it to him [laughs] The GBank trifecta.
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40:35
That was some quality behind the scenes communication there between me and Gil. It was the first, "I'll give my thoughts after Wes' plays," because I needed Gil to look up and see Wes' plays on the graphic.
40:44
And then, uh, that little- Yes... subtle drop from Gil meant Gil, uh, Kelly did not send Gil the, uh, script for this this morning. It is a dance that we do. [laughs] All right, you do have, you do have thoughts.
40:53
Um, so yeah, fi- finals, I'll be watching this total. I, I'm interested in the under. This pace has come down between these two teams.
41:00
The, look, this Thunder defense is, no matter what we wanna talk about with, with, with each one of these teams, this Thunder defense I think is one of the better defenses we've seen in the NBA in quite some time, and they are making everything tough on the Pacers.
41:12
And meanwhile, like I'll, I'll go the complete other side on the Thunder offense. What, what, they don't... The, it was an impressive win in game four in Indy, right? SGA saved them in the final quarter.
41:26
This team still, I, I think there's major confusion, concern still with the OKC offense.
41:32
They, they went back to the double big starting lineup in game four, which I was glad they did, Gil, but I also thought, I thought they would start the series with that and eventually go small.
41:43
I think Dags is saying, "You gotta mix it up." Guess what? The double big lineup didn't really all work, work all that well. Yeah. I believe it was minus 13 with those two on the court.
41:50
So they ended up going away from it. The offense has become stagnant.
41:54
Um, they, I think they found something in that fourth quarter with the Jalen Williams, SGA two-man game with the screens, but you're not getting, it, it's more than you're not making threes.
42:04
You're not even able to get up threes. And one of the most impressive things in this playoff run about the Pacers is how much better their defense has gotten. This was still- Oh...
42:13
I mean, we could talk about how good this team was from January 1st on. I know everybody's heard those stats. There's a, there's a whole story game three, for sure. I mean, they were- Yeah...
42:21
they were still middle-of-the-road defensive team for mo- much of the NBA season. What they have done throughout this playoffs has been incredible. So with all that stuff, I understand you brought it up.
42:30
The total's lower than what it's been in any other game so far. I'm still only looking one way, and it would be under. And if people wanna bet this up all day, fine, I might be in on it by game time.
42:40
And then when we talk about the side Look, I like the Thunder to win tonight. I think this probably goes seven. There's no way I'm laying nine and a half points with this Thunder team right now though. No.
42:49
I don't know what you could see in this offense the past couple games. They ma- uh, it makes you think they've got everything figured out, that they're clicking on both sides of the ball.
42:57
They are definitely clicking on defense. Offensively, it's a bit of a nightmare still. So, um, the way they've been able to mess things up for Indiana a bit.
43:05
I think Indiana, you're gonna see a shorter bench tonight as well. I, I, I think this is a tighter game and I think it's lower scoring. Where would you, same question that I asked of Wes earlier, where would you rank?
43:15
W- Pacers win or lose this NBA finals, where do you power rank them?
43:18
Given the trade with Orlando, give me, uh, between Orlando and Memphis yesterday, power rank the Eastern Conference's teams, Tatum hurt, heading into next season.
43:26
I mean, I'll go exactly what Wes said, but I mean, the one, the one pushback is, is, you know, Indi- Indiana [laughs] got further than Cleveland did this year, right? Like, that's- Yep...
43:36
I mean, I, if you wanna say they're number one to me right now, I really can't argue with you. But, you know, there's a regular season where you play- Yeah... over 82 games, and then there's the post-season.
43:44
That's what we talk about with basketball especially. True of all sports, but basketball especially, it's a very different game.
43:49
So I, I mean, Cle- Which has been a big deal for the Cleveland Cavaliers the past few seasons. Yes. Yeah. So you'd say Cleveland one, you'd say Indiana two.
43:56
Yeah, but I think there's a lot that's gonna happen this off-season- Okay... that's gonna play out. I, I guess Orlando would probably be... I don't know if I'm gonna go them third right now.
44:04
I mean, like, where's Giannis going? You know, I, it could- Yeah. I think he's the second-best player in the NBA to me. Two or three. Like, it matters way too much of where he lands. Can, you cannot project a winner yet?
44:13
Cannot, no. Okay. I have a confession to make as we leave. Orlando's top five though, for sure. [laughs] Top five, good. I have a confession to make as we leave. You did send me the G Bank read, I just didn't see it. Oh.
44:26
Ellie Midlan, he had one job and he c- and he did complete it. Money Moves is next with Stormy and JBT. Enjoy from VSiN, the Sports Betting Network.
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