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Jun 17, 2024
A Numbers Game | June 17, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | June 17, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. We don't care which way you're taking us in, we just appreciate that you are.
0:19
Either way, it's Gil Alexander. It's producer number nine, Kelly Bidlin. So much more than a producer. How you doing, man? You good? What are you, what are you furiously working on over there?
0:29
Uh, d- no, just a couple things for the show, you know? Oh, sorry, man. Tim, Tim Lawson may be checking in on, on my, uh- Sorry to pry... I'm sorrys. Uh, have I, have I dropped that many during the show today?
0:39
I need, like, one of those, like, r- Well, we got, we got a couple things here by tweet. I'm like, "What did I, when did I say that?" I don't know, yeah. Yeah.
0:44
I, I need, like, a rubber band on the wrist situation, you know? Isn't that how, like, uh, OCD people, like, handle, ha- handle stuff like that? Snap themselves. We get tweets of many of the both. Oh, yeah.
0:54
We'll talk about it. The numbers guys. Oh, DraftKings, you broke my heart. Sent me a notification saying Grace Kim won the m- won the, uh, the LPGA Tour. She did not. Lost in a playoff. Hurtful.
1:08
This was, this was the play that- Oh, no. That was- This was the play that Jason Weingarten gave out on the show on Friday. She had a five-stroke lead headed into the final round.
1:19
It was tied by the turn, and she loses in a playoff. Ugh. Nevada Azer, he's got the nationals, uh, to have the most wins in June at 200 to one. Ooh. [laughs] You're live. That's awesome.
1:32
By the way, the, uh, Grace Kim ticket would've paid 20 to one for numbers guys. Oh. Rat City, uh, said, uh, "You should let me know that the hockey game is tomorrow." Did I misspeak? It's tomorrow. I've said it.
1:40
I, I know I said it, the NBA game is tonight and the hockey game is tomorrow, but then maybe I fudged it later. Sorry. Apologies. I know he double-checked with me. All fair.
1:48
[laughs] Phil Weiss says, "Uh, just curious, Gil, is there anyone in your world that's not the greatest of all time?" Who did I call the greatest of all time today? I don't know.
1:58
Maybe he's just randomly saying, "Hey, but Barry Lamar Bonds is the greatest of all time, and Igus FiatTech will be." [laughs] What's, what's your problem? It's a different show, though. It wasn't today. Uh, let's see.
2:07
And this is from the Better Life, Tim Lawson, he does these. Kelly Bidlin's I'm sorry is better than Steven A's however. Oh, he's... 'Cause I said Carl Sack.
2:15
I didn't call him the greatest of all time, just the greatest in my world. Best NBA better that I know. Um, it's not hyperbole, that's just the truth. Oh, okay. Just record-wise.
2:23
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, before we get to Carl Sack, I am, uh, thrilled to have this young man on the show. Uh, he has a great Twitter handle.
2:30
Um, it goes by Brooks Gate, which has to do with his dog being a jinx, and his friends used to call it, uh...
2:36
His dog's name was Brooks, and whenever Brooks would show up, the, they would lose their bets, so it became a Watergate type of situation. So Brooks Gate is the name of his, uh, Twitter handle.
2:45
Great baseball stats that I think are super insightful for those considering, uh, futures bets, because it, it lets you look at baseball through a different lens.
2:54
It's Jordan Harrison joining us this morning, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Jordan? What's up, guys? Thanks for having me on. Appreciate you being on. Uh, how did this... What is your background?
3:04
How did starting a Twitter, uh, feed like this, um, h- how did it begin? W- are you a baseball guy growing up? And you have nothing to do with the old Brooksby Baseball, right? This is just about your dog, Brooks Gate.
3:18
Yeah, no, I've gotten that. Uh, I don't know Brooksby, uh, Baseball. I don't know if I'm too young or what it is- Yeah... but I don't, I don't know him. But yeah, uh, just graduated college.
3:27
I'm working on a remote job, so I got a lot of time on my hands. Huge baseball fan, so. Yeah, you got- Putting up stats left and right... clearly you gotta be a huge baseball fan.
3:37
We were citing a bunch of yours last week. Um, let's just go through a few of these, and I'm curious- Yes, sir... like, do you come up with them on your own? Do you take, like, uh, suggestions from readers? Here's one.
3:48
Do you want to start with this one that's on screen here, Kelly? Uh, each team's... I love this one. I think this was a suggestion from a listener. Uh- Yeah... or a follower.
3:57
Each team's top three starting pitchers by innings pitched, ranked by their combined ERA. Great idea because of the postseason, right? Right.
4:07
Yeah, that was the, I think the prompt, like, looking at postseason, uh, rotations. So you look at the Phillies, I mean, clearly probably been the best rotation in baseball so far.
4:17
Uh, kind of an underrated one people aren't talking about as much, the Tigers, uh, really good top three. Yankees obviously have been really strong. Um, so yeah, it's a good look at postseason rotations. Uh- Yeah...
4:32
really good look at it, yeah.
4:33
Yeah, a really good look at it in terms of, again, these are the collective ERAs of top three starting pitchers of either of these team, because the theory being, if you get, if you can get into the postseason, then you have the killer rotation and the best of threes or the best of fives, uh, specifically.
4:48
C- uh, Philadelphia, no surprise, number one. Detroit was perhaps the surprise to people. Of course, they gotta get in. They're number four.
4:55
The one that was, uh, by the way, Colorado, for those wondering, the worst, no surprise, at 4.71. Might surprise people that Arizona is second worst at 4.69.
5:04
The interesting one, though, is obviously the Dodgers, who, uh, not only had a Mookie Betts injury yesterday, breaking his hand- Yeah...
5:10
but also, but also have a, uh, a situation where now on the IL is Yoshinobu Yamamoto. So that's huge in terms of a, uh... Well, we'll see.
5:22
You know, obviously it'll, he could come back before the postseason, but at least for the short term, that's gonna be a big deal, 'cause the Dodgers got a big boost here.
5:29
Let's go to the next one here, 'cause these are, again, just different ways to look at baseball and to, and to think about it, again, at Brooks Gate.
5:35
How many games each team has played against the White Sox, Marlins, and Rockies, three worst teams in baseball, uh, and their record in those games.
5:44
And this, this is a, this is a great idea too, because we don't often process it this way. But I knew this to be the case, Jordan, because Cleveland, by the way, what are they?
5:54
What's their record in 13 games against those three teams? Yeah, here we go. So under 500 against those three teams is pretty impressive with how good they've been.
6:04
Uh, the Phillies have been getting a ton of flack for a light schedule, but they've been beating up on good teams too. So, uh, kind of an interesting look that the White Sox are obviously kind of a joke this year. And-
6:18
Marlins and Rockies are two teams you want to face as well. Yeah, so Guardian's six and seven against those three teams, and don't I know it, 'cause they went two and five in June against the- [laughs]...
6:29
White Sox and the Rockies, and that cost us our 16 to 1 for most wins in June.
6:34
And then as you point out, the Phillies, yes, they've played an easy schedule, epically easy, but at least they're beating those teams nine and three in their 12 games. Let's go to the next one here.
6:43
I want to get through a bunch of these, 'cause these are all... They, they help, they help shape our view of these teams. Um, what is this one right here? This is team def- oh, I love this.
6:54
'Cause we often, uh, we quantify stuff on offense and we quantify pitching, but team defense is not something we think about. So this is team defense this year @Brooks_Gate, by the way, is the exact Twitter handle.
7:06
Team defense, uh, and their, and the player that has added or cost the team most on defense. The Diamondbacks, number one at plus 19. Uh, they're the best. Th- they have helped themselves the most defensively.
7:20
Is this something you were just, like, inspired, like, how can I, how can I find something that will add value to people's handicapping here?
7:28
Yeah, I mean, uh, look, I'm a terrible sports bettor, so I don't know if this, any of this helps you, uh, with your handicapping or anything. But, uh, this is in- there's a ton of defensive stats.
7:40
No one really knows which one's best. Outs above average seems to be the one that people like the most. Um, but this is an interesting look, yeah. Uh, Diamondbacks, really strong defense.
7:51
Blue Jays, basically their whole goal this off season was to revamp their defense. Hasn't translated to wins, but, uh, it's, it's working out on that front at least.
8:00
I think the fascinating part about that exchange right there is that Jordan is not a, not a sports bettor, right?
8:06
But some of the stuff that you're putting out, yeah, I'm telling you from a, from a season long standpoint, especially. Yeah.
8:13
Like, you know, 'cause some people might look at that Cleveland record and think, well, Cleveland is actually better than they are, worse than they are. Some people might look at the Phillies.
8:22
Let's go to the next one here, 'cause there's a bunch of this stuff. The three starting pitchers thing is great. Uh, let's go to the next one here, guys.
8:27
This is, again, all @Brooks_Gate, Jordan Harrison, our guest courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Games where the opposing starting pitcher pitched six plus innings and allowed zero runs.
8:37
This was pretty surprising to me. A lot of these reveal, uh, surprising, uh, results. Games where the opposing starting pitcher pitched six plus innings and allowed zero runs.
8:47
13 times at the top, Tampa Bay Rays, Oakland Athletics. So you're saying that those are the teams where the opposing team went six innings and gave up zero runs? Yeah, basically how many times does the- Ah, gotcha.
9:02
Okay... the opposing starting pitcher shut you down. And then the Phillies zero times. Never has happened. Yes. Which is- Right... look at that chart where no one's close to them. All right, let's go to the next one.
9:12
That one I, uh, that one I read wrong on this one. Um, I misinterpreted that one. Okay, the next one. This is the Phillies. Okay, and this is about for Phillies backers.
9:21
The Phillies have still only played, this is from a few ga- a few days ago, have still only played 10 games.
9:26
This changed with their last series, but the Phillies have still only played 10 games against teams currently over 500. In other words, um, and by the way, we already mentioned they're eight and two in those games.
9:36
This is before their last series. That is just a reminder about strength of schedule and how, yes, while the Phillies have exploited those games, um, boy, their schedule is going to be nothing but tough moving forward.
9:47
Do you feel like with all your baseball stuff, you think the Braves can get back into that division race or not at all?
9:53
The division, I don't know, but going into the playoffs, I mean, I think the Braves are as talented as anyone. We know they're gonna make moves at the deadline. They always do.
10:02
Uh, I think the Braves, they're, they've looked terrible lately, but I, I still think they're as talented as anyone. Good for you on this Twitter feed, man. You, you, you definitely have some things there.
10:11
This one has nothing to do with betting, but I love th- I love this one, Jordan. The player with the most walk-off hits for every team since 2010. I love this one. Freddie Freeman for the Braves is still the leader.
10:25
Freddie Freeman, when he played on the Braves, still the leader. Most walk-off hits, uh, since 2010, 13. The... I'm looking down the list. You have to. Matt Kemp still has nine with the Dodgers on there.
10:37
[laughs] That's amazing. Um, I'm trying to see where the... I think Sal Perez for the Royals is still the only current match or the highest current match at eight, I think.
10:47
Yeah, I think there's only three guys on here that are still on their team. Yeah. Uh, someone commented, so.
10:53
And I think Yankees fans might be shocked that their leaders in this category are, it's a tie at seven walk-off hits since 2010 between Gleyber Torres and Brett Gardner.
11:06
Brett, but Kelly, in my whole baseball betting life, the player that killed me the most, like I knew if I was fading them, I'm like, "Oh, please don't be Brett Gardner." [laughs] He would destroy me every time.
11:15
I've heard you say it before. Yeah. I'm laughing at the Marlins at the bottom. Stanton and Yelich. [laughs] Stanton and Yelich. Stanton's on there. Uh, Jordan, listen, we could go through a bunch of these.
11:24
Uh, team ranking in offensive product- production by spot in the batting order from one to 30. We'll, we'll show that later. Yeah. Really appreciate it. Congratulations on the Twitter feed. I think it's awesome.
11:35
Brooks_Gate, and, uh, I'll continue to monitor it, I'll continue to talk about it, and I hope your followers increase dramatically, sir. [laughs] Thanks, uh, thanks for having me on, guys. Jordan Harrison, everybody.
11:48
Brooks_Gate. Carl Zack next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Hey, check out our website if you have not yet. It's the new...
12:04
Can we still call it the new vsin.com, or is it not new anymore, Kelly? Kelly [laughs] I can't look over at Kelly. He's like, "I don't know." Hey, we got a website.
12:12
Best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state, betting tools, betting guides. About those picks, by the way, I have two tennis picks today- Whoa... uh, that have still not, uh, started. We, we did...
12:22
So grass season started out poorly. We did have a winner this morning on Daria Kasatkina overnight, uh, beating Marta Kostyuk. Uh, we have two more today, but the lines aren't there anymore. Oh. So I don't know.
12:35
That's why we wait an hour and 15 minutes. Yeah, well, let me tell you what they are. But anyway, the website, vsin.com, every host, every guest, every sport for subscribers, but there's so much there that is free.
12:46
Uh, front and center, Zach Cohen's tennis picks, uh, Zach Cohen on the NBA, Michael Lombardi on the NFL interim coach dilemma. Huh, that's a dilemma with the interim coaches. Uh, can the Chiefs threepeat?
12:57
It's all there at vsin.com. About the tennis matches, by the way, uh, they will start right after the show, but I gave out, on that website, I had Galia, uh, Victoria Golubic in her match against Camila Osorio.
13:10
I have Golubic at plus 137, but she's, like, short plus money now, so you can't bet that anymore. In the case of Siniakova, I got her at plus 105 against Emma Navarro.
13:20
She's now a slight favorite at minus 114, nor would I recommend it there. So that's why, again, CLV. Berlin? What could go wrong, Kelly? Or Birmingham? Uh, those are both... See, now you, now see what you did?
13:35
I'm trying to help people out, man. [laughs] Oh, for God sakes. This is the thing, spelling is not enough. Now you have to be, you have to... This is, these, these two are both in, uh, Siniakova is in Berlin. Okay.
13:48
And then the other one, I'm just trying to see if they moved it. They did not yet, I don't think, right? And then the other one is in Birmingham. The Golubic one is in, is Birmingham. Got you. So, okay.
13:59
Golubic, Golubic, I don't know how you pronounce it. Um, but there you go. Those are the two. So again, I can't recommend, but those are the numbers.
14:05
Ladies and gentlemen, uh, he and I met when we both used to work with Dr. Bob. He did basketball. I did baseball.
14:11
Uh, he is, and again, Phil Weiss gave me, uh, gave me some crap for this, but he is simply the best basketball bettor that I've ever been around, period. It's Carl Sack, everybody. Works at Killer Sports now.
14:21
Uh, you may know him as the NBA guru from years past, courtesy of the Progressive guest line. How you doing, Carl? I'm doing great. How are you, Kel? I'm doing great, man. Um, can we just shout out Dr. Bob?
14:32
'Cause, 'cause we had this conversation the other day that you and I are forever grateful. I don't wanna speak for you, but I will say forever grateful for our association with him. Oh, he's, and he's fantastic.
14:43
I've learned so much from him, and I'm, I'm definitely, uh, definitely fortunate to have, uh, crossed paths with, with Bob. Yeah. For sure.
14:54
And, and taught us in so many different ways, and, and it was a great guy, and humble about it [laughs] in his own way, and not so humble in other things, but very humble about it in terms of his influence on, on us, for sure.
15:06
Uh, okay. You and I, we hung out before game four. You were here in Vegas. You were doing some stuff. First of all, Killer Sports, explain to folks what that is. Um, so it's basically a database, um,
15:21
a database that allows people to do research, both fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Um,
15:30
it- it's been vital to my handicapping, and, and I think, uh, you know, that's, that's kind of what Bob and I, uh, passed along with, with us, to us as well, is, is that if you wanna be able to quantify things, and model, model sports properly, um, you- you've gotta have the underlying data, and, and, um, you know, be able to slice it and dice it how you wanna be able to see it.
15:57
And what, what's the- So- Yeah... Killer Sports is basically a, a database, uh, that's open to the public that allows people to do that.
16:05
Um, currently we just have the major NBA, uh, the major professional sports, um, hockey, baseball, basketball, football, um, and some college.
16:16
But we, um, we need to get into, uh, certainly need to get into tennis, um, golf, uh, I think probably WNBA here soon too. I love it.
16:25
And what Bob used to talk about, again, we've talked about with him directly, is he does his modeling of sports with his own proprietary model, but then what he calls the technical side are the trends, which a lot of people immediately when they hear that word, they go nuts on.
16:37
But y- you're not getting the full picture unless you have a database that you can see historical lines of, and how they performed given certain situations.
16:49
And some trends, yeah, there's a lot of people who do data mine and give you meaningless stuff. But there are some really informative nuggets that even if it doesn't trigger a bet, will help take you off bets sometimes.
16:59
And so that's just the, the whole pie of things, if you will.
17:02
So game four, we, we, before game four, you, you had the same opinion, I think, that most of us did, which was, "Yeah, it's a little too squirrely, game four." You just don't know where people's heads are at.
17:12
Uh, the unquantifiable is never higher than in that situation, a game four where another team is up three to nothing. But there are some interesting situations heading into a game five. Explain to us if you would, sir.
17:25
Um, well, uh, as you and I were texting a few days ago after that, [laughs] uh, after that crazy game four, um, there was, uh... I mean, I think it was the third largest margin of victory in a finals game ever. Um,
17:43
and, um, the worst, worst Celtics franchise loss in finals history. Um, certainly a, a, a very different game from the first three. Um, the...
18:03
I- What is- Historically, if you start to look at, at, at, at this, the, this type of a situation where a team really gets embarrassed- Um, the way that Boston did, and there's multiple reasons for that if you, you know, c- c- that you can delve into.
18:18
But historically, when you start to d- d- delve into it, um, there's a strong tendency for teams to bounce back. Um, I think they're, they're gonna make adjustments, um,
18:30
certainly on the defensive side, and I think on the offensive side. If you, if you watched game four, you saw that, uh, they were, they were settling for jumpers. They were not driving. They were not passing.
18:45
Um, it, it, it looked as though they just were content with winning game three and felt like the series was over or something. Um,
18:54
so I, I expect their, their offense to be, uh, to, to not just fall into that, "Okay, settle for a jumper, one-on-one," whatever, but, you know, move the ball, drive and kick, that stuff.
19:07
What is, what is the historical number on that? So give... So if we could quantify that. So, um, when a team gets, gets bounced by, by a certain amount by the spread, like w- they, they came nowhere near covering, right?
19:20
So what are the historical numbers on that? Yeah, I mean, there's, there's a lot of different ways you can slice it and dice it and look at it. Um, uh, I'll give you a few. Uh, dogs,
19:33
so dogs that are fi- dogs of five or more that just won their last game by 35, which would be Dallas, um, they're 19 and 40 against the spread in their next game, um, over the last 22 years.
19:50
That's like 32%.
19:53
Um, looking at things from more so the Celtics point of view, um, home favorites of four and a half or more coming off a double, just simply a double-digit loss, uh, 61% on 180 plays going back the last 22 years.
20:11
Um, yeah, I mean, you- You gave, you gave me one here, NBA playoff favorites coming off a game where they failed to cover by 20 or more, 60 and 42 ATS, 58.8% as well?
20:24
Yeah, and actually, that, if, if, that's, that's for favorites that, uh, failed to cover by 20 or more. If you look at favorites of
20:34
four points or more, as the Celtics are six and a half tonight, and, and kind of zoom in on those teams that you know are, um,
20:46
th- are believed to be the better team to begin with, um, hence the spread being more than four in a, in a home spot like this, it goes up to 64%. Um, so yeah, I mean,
21:00
w- w- this is definitely the type of situation where you would expect, uh, expect a team like the Celtics to bounce back. Okay. Well, I think I know where this is going, but it's time to give your, uh, your play then.
21:12
I think, I think you just suggested what it might be, but let's find out. What is it for game five? Well, so, um, to be fully transparent, um, I have bet, um, I bet Boston wire to wire. I bet them first quarter.
21:28
I bet them first half. I bet them, um, for the full game. I bet all of those money lines as well. Um, I, I do expect them to, uh, to do well tonight. I think, um, it, it...
21:44
I think the best place to go, if I had to pick one, would be the first half. Um, I expect Boston to come out and make some, make some adjustments.
21:55
There were some interesting quotes from Bo- uh, Al Horford after game four, um, talking about how they really hadn't made any adjustments all series, um, which is, which is really odd for a playoff team.
22:07
Um, they were just kinda doing what they were doing.
22:10
And, um, yeah, I expect them to, to show some new sets and, and, and give Dallas some things that they haven't seen yet, and, and it'll take them, it'll take Dallas a little time to digest it and get into halftime and make their own adjustments.
22:24
And so, um- All right... if I had to pick anywhere to go, it's first half. Carl, I gotta run. Is that your, so that's your official play, Celtics first half? Celtics first half, yeah. I think it's like three and a half.
22:34
Three and a half. Yeah. Celtics minus three and a half, first half, game five. Carl's official play. Thank you, sir. Appreciate it. Thanks for having me on. Thank you. Carl Sack, everybody.
22:44
We'll come back with Mike Somich on the other side, all his plays. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:55
Next week, we're releasing our VSiN NFL Betting Guide.
22:58
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23:05
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23:16
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23:25
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23:36
Promo code ANG, as in A Numbers Game. That is vsin.com/subscribe now, and use promo code ANG. Uh, taking a look here to see if this line has moved. The juice has moved on the three and a half upwards.
23:50
We haven't got a tick to four yet. Mm-hmm. So if Carl Sack moved, the juice has moved. Minus three and a half, uh, now about minus 18 I'm seeing.
23:59
There's, uh, there, there's been some movement, I would say more, more on the far away places. Yeah. Which is probably not a surprise. Which is not a surprise given the Carl Sack audience. [laughs] Exactly.
24:06
That's kinda what I was thinking. That's correct. Yes. Yes. Uh, we- I do see, uh, Boyd went to four and a half, though. Boyd went to four and a half? Yeah.
24:14
Yeah, I think some fours here That's the highest I see I think fours are gonna pop up everywhere now. Uh, we get tweets at Beating The Book, Trip Tepper. Oh, this is great, I'm glad he brought this up.
24:22
So back to golf for a second. We'll bring in Samich here. By the way, Mike Samich joins us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line at Samobom18 on the Twitter machine.
24:31
He's of course the co-host of The Handle, which he does with Matt Brown, Saturdays and Sundays, 12:00 noon Eastern. What's happening, Samobomby? What's happening, man? You good? I'm good. I'm doing well.
24:40
It was a fun little day on the golf course yesterday. Brutal for anyone who was backing Rory there and kind of how that, uh, that finished off, but the turn from DeChambeau, just phenomenal. Everyone loves him now.
24:49
Who knew? He was, uh, he was one- Yeah... of the most hated golfers a couple years ago, and now he's a fan favorite. He's warm and cuddly. Um- I'm totally on board with it, too. I am that guy.
24:57
I, I, I talked a lot of trash a couple years ago about him. Yeah. I, uh, I, I don't want to say I take it back, 'cause I don't take it back, but Bryson, you f- y- you also might just be the fakest dude on the planet.
25:06
Maybe. And we just all don't know. Maybe. Like, he, he gets called that a lot. We don't really know.
25:09
'Cause, yeah, 'cause some people were, some people were like, "Eh," the whole SMU story and Payne Stewart is a little fudged by him. It's not exactly chronological how it happened.
25:16
I mean, we were talking Brooks and Bryson earlier, like, Brooks is exactly what you get. Like, whether you like him or hate him, he is exactly what you get every time. Yeah, I don't like him.
25:25
[laughs] Um, I like, I like him when I'm betting on him and he's on fire, though, I'll tell you that much. So our buddy Rufus Peabody.
25:31
Uh, Rufus came on the, on a Numbers game when we were back at the South Point, and I was asking you off-air, which tournament was that? It was Mito Pereira. Was it the PGA you said? Yeah, PGA two y- two years ago? Yeah.
25:41
So Rufus had, I wanna say it was, like, 300K that he was gonna win on Mito, and he didn't hedge, and Mito lost, right? Yeah. Mito Pereira lost i- in dramatic fashion at the PGA.
25:54
And so Rufus was on basically explaining, "Yeah, I didn't hedge because I didn't feel like, uh,
26:00
there was, there was a reason to," and this is, it gets into a whole hedging conversation, right, where, like, you know, nine...
26:06
I don't want to give a percentage to listeners, but there's a, there's a huge percentage that is like, "How could he possibly not? It's 300K." Okay. Well, he's Rufus. He's our buddy Rufus Peabody.
26:15
Rufus is one of the most successful bettors, and this is why I always say hedging is, you know, it's, it's not for everybody.
26:21
Some people, you know, o- one person's hedge is another person's, "No, I'm going for it," and this is how I view it, and, and the way that he viewed golf and the way that he views sports betting is all through probabilities, and for him, that was not a situation.
26:32
So again now yesterday, and Trip Tepper, thank you for bringing this up, he says, "Next time you get Rufus on A&G, it would be fun to hear his perspective on this US Open hedging scramble.
26:42
Uh, the peek behind the curtain here is fascinating." Rufus put up, uh, some of his texts with his brother, I believe this is, about should they, should they not.
26:52
I think ultimately he did not on Bryson, on, on, uh, excuse me, on, uh, Rory, I think he had. I, again, read through the texts doing a show.
27:01
But essentially I think he lost again not, and he didn't hedge, and he didn't have Bryson. I think it was he stood to lose a lot if Bryson won. Um, so, uh, maybe this was even a loss. Maybe this was even a hedge.
27:11
I have to get the details. Um, how often w- none, none of us are necessarily talking about 300K on the line or, or whatever number he had.
27:19
But how often do you find yourself, and is there any consistency with how you do it? You've got a guy coming down the back nine. He's got the lead. There's people in the rear view mirror, Mike. What do you typically do?
27:36
Or is there a typical?
27:37
I'm j- I'm, I'm gener- generally team no hedge, and when, when I'm talking about hedging, I, I think it's important to put it in unit perspective versus dollar perspective because everyone's dollar amount is different on what, what makes a difference to them, right?
27:50
And so if, if, you know, Peabody has 300,000, that might be five units for him, 10 units for him, which isn't a huge swing over the long run, right?
27:57
It's obviously nice to win that amount, but not a massive swing from a unit perspective. So for me, I, whenever anyone asks me, "Hey, do you think I should hedge this?" the question is, "Hey, how many units is it?"
28:06
'Cause if it's 100 units, yeah, get a, get something back from that, right? Because that is a big swing over a year term.
28:11
If it's five to 10 units, I don't think it's a, a huge idea from a hedging perspective, and because of the way I bet futures, I, there are very few circumstances where I'm sitting there with 100 unit swing, right, a 50 unit swing.
28:22
Generally, I'm betting, uh, you know, two-tenths of a un- or I'm sorry, 10, uh, 20% of a unit on a 10 to one, 12 to one, right? And so I'm looking at five unit, six unit type win.
28:32
I'm not gonna hedge that unless I have a situation where I think there is a positive expected value bet I hedge it with, right? I, I hate the idea of people hedging b- betting bets that they would never make.
28:43
They're just doing it simply to hedge, right? Yes. Because a lot of times if you have a bet that you liked, you probably still like that bet.
28:50
You probably still think you're on the right side, so why are you then betting something that you think has a negative expected value just to guarantee you're going to make money?
28:58
That's gonna cost you money in the long run.
28:59
Now, like I said, if you find a positive expected value bet that also profitably hedges you, that is a different conversation, but the majority of the time people are hedging to reduce risk when they were correct to get themselves in a point which is a positive probability.
29:14
So I, I'm generally team no hedge.
29:17
Mike, uh, if people have, people have been key listeners to this show and, and the Beating The Book podcast and the Dork- and the Betting Dork podcast before that, I, they know that I have, am right there with you.
29:26
I just feel like for all the reasons you state, did, did something change? Did someone get hurt? Right. Right? Why did you make the bet in the first place?
29:34
And I just feel like there has become this cottage industry on Twitter particularly, right, of default to hedge.
29:43
You've gotta lock in money, and there's gonna be people on this network and on other networks who are like, "You must always lock in money," right? And that is not, uh, y- it's not universally true, right?
29:53
It's not a black-and-white answer, and, uh, I don't know, uh, I'm just glancing while we're doing this show. Rufus stood to lose over a half a million if Bryson lost. That was at the beginning of the day.
30:05
I don't know what he ended up doing. I'd have to read through his stuff. But those are the kinds of decisions he's making, and a lot of times when he doesn't, you know, g- guard against that, people go crazy.
30:16
So it's a, it's a fascinating conversation. What did you, uh, did you end up having a winning tournament? Who did you have? Who were you rooting for down the stretch yesterday? I, I didn't make a ton of bets.
30:25
I, I wasn't really sure where to go with this tournament, so I had an Oberg 22/1 ticket, uh, and so I, I had to sweat after two days, and I just kind of let that ride.
30:32
So I ended up losing that ticket, but didn't go crazy on this U.S. Open, just because I- Pinehurst I thought was a really difficult course to handicap with how it was playing.
30:40
You could hit a great shot and end up tripling. A- and that makes it very hard from a handicapping perspective in my mind.
30:46
Um, so I, I ended up just with losing the Oberg ticket, and that was it, so lost t- two- or 20% of a unit, and, uh, moved along. [laughs] Good for you. Um, let's see.
30:56
Fezzik: "You don't need to find a positive expectation bet to hedge. As long as it's a break-even bet or very, very, very close to it, it's actually mathematically correct to hedge under Kelly criterion." There you go.
31:09
Steve Fezzik has chimed in. [laughs] Um, Rufus would disagree. That's all I'll say. Rufus would disagree. Yeah, I'm not- Yeah. I, I wouldn't, I wouldn't argue with Fez on the math.
31:17
He's exceptional from a math perspective. Yeah. I just, I just hate chopping away some of my winnings when the hedge loses and my original bet won. And you gotta k- kind of take into account- Mm-hmm...
31:26
if you're playing these shots that are 20/1, 30/1, 40/1, and you cost yourself, let's say, 30% of the bet, well, then, your 20/1 all of a sudden is really 14/1, right?
31:36
And so you have to then say, "Was it worth it at 14/1? Would I have made the bet at 14/1, and am I sure that, that taking that, that 6/1 out of it is worthwhile just to make sure I break even or make a profit?"
31:47
And so a lot of it, you know, the, the, the, the way that you hedge, I think, makes a big difference, right?
31:52
If you can hedge back and you can get plus money, and y- you know, yeah, let's say it's a break-even bet in the long term, okay, let's, let's talk about it.
31:58
But, you know, people who hedge out and it's a minus 360 that they're laying, and they have to lay an exceptional amount, to me, it just doesn't make sense if you like the bet in the original spot.
32:06
Yeah, and I wasn't suggesting Fez was wrong mathematically. I just think there's more... That, that the human brain is often more complex and pollutes that.
32:13
Now, Fezzik, it might be among the group that can be robotic about it in terms of that decision-making and say, "Well, this is mathematically correct, and this must be... If it's mathematically correct,"
32:22
I, I don't know what he's... If he's saying therefore you ought to do it or not. Um, but I just think that there's more, there's more in the mix typically on these, and, uh, Rufus tends to view it in a different way.
32:34
Um, okay. Before we, before we get to the break here, I just wanna ask you about... You, you don't have any... I know you don't, you're not, you're not in the College World Series sweepstakes at all, Mike?
32:44
You're not doing anything there? No, no, I didn't, uh, I didn't get down on the College World Series this year. Love the event. Phenomenal to go to Omaha and watch it, but did not bet it. Okay.
32:53
Uh, Doncic tonight, what's your play? I took over eight and a half rebounds. This has been an interesting b- bet for me. I bet it in game one over nine and a half plus 105. That got home.
33:02
I didn't bet it in game two or game three 'cause the juice adjusted pretty drastically. We saw over nine and a half plus 100 game four. I did bet it there. It was ended up being a loser.
33:09
Now we're at eight and a half minus 125 on the juice. I like the over on the Doncic rebounds. I think this sets up well for him to go over. And to baseball today for you? To baseball, yes.
33:19
Uh, we're going under in the first five, uh, with, uh, the, the, in the Braves game, under four and a half, and then we're taking the Brewers team total over one and a half first five as well. Okay.
33:29
Mike, usually have you for two. We're thankful for one today. Thank you so much. Mike Somich, everybody, from The Handle. Thank you, Mike. Have a good one, guys. Somobomb18 on the Twitter machine.
33:40
Kelly and I coming back on the other side next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. We are this close to crowning an NBA champ, with the action heating up on the court.
33:56
It's even hotter at DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NBA. Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app now.
34:02
Use code VSiN, that's code V-S-I-N, for new customers to get 150 in bonus bets when you bet just five bucks, only on DraftKings. The crown is yours. Gil Alexander, we get tweets @BeatingTheBook.
34:14
Always appreciate the, uh, the feedback. This is from Jimmy Lopez: "I think that guy," he's referring to Phil Weiss.
34:21
He goes, "I think that guy means a numbers game, has the greatest listeners of all time, and the greatest tweeters." I think, I think you're right about that. That's what he, that's what he meant.
34:29
Tom Collins: "Enjoyed, uh, Jordan Harrison on Beating The Book. Uh, thank you for sharing your, uh, your hard work." Enjoyed him on a numbers game here this morning, talking about, uh, Jordan Harrison from Brooks_Gate.
34:42
Honestly, some great baseball stats from him. Mike Zills, Duke [laughs] 90, mocking me with the Brett Gardner stuff.
34:48
Honestly, Brett Gardner and Joey Votto, like if I had to go back in the thousands of baseball games I've bet, just anecdotally, who is the batter on the other side, if I was fading them, that I feared the most with bets, that I was like, "Please don't let it be his time in the order," and Joey Votto and Brett Gardner destroyed me.
35:06
I, I will say it's, it's, it's been a... This is, uh, I th- I don't know why I find this funny. It's definitely been a while since I've heard you say this. Yeah.
35:14
But if someone randomly came up to me and was like, "Hey, what baseball player has cost Gil the most amount of money?" [laughs] I would be able to answer Brett Gardner. Brett Gardner.
35:21
I'm like, you, you have brought this up enough times that I remember this. He was so clutch at all the wrong moments for me. Yeah.
35:27
[laughs] Uh, Brian Schaefer: "Gil, I, uh, I hate how everybody worries about the Phillies only beat up on under 500 teams." I think he's a Phillies fan, by the way, he goes. "But this is a numbers game show.
35:37
Here are the numbers. The teams the Phillies beat that are under 500 are the Giants, Rangers, and Nationals, who are under 500 because they played the Phillies."
35:44
I've made that point before, that I agree with that, actually. It's like, yeah, they're a tick below 500 because they happen to play the Phillies. It's a good point. Otherwise, they'd be above it.
35:51
Uh, Teasers and Parlays: "As a casual baseball follower, that was a great segment with, uh, Brooks_Gate. Uh, Matt freaking Kemp, that is amazing."
36:00
Like, the, he's still, uh, like, what, fourth was he on the list or like- Yeah... Freddie Freeman with Atlanta had 13 game-winning hits since 2010. Like, that one doesn't surprise me.
36:10
Him with the Dodgers at nine is still up on the list. The Marlins are just so pathetic.
36:15
Like, uh, that was the greatest example of any great player we ever get, we ship off immediately, uh, and they did, they did just well enough- [laughs]... to be on that type of list, but then, uh, send them away.
36:27
We will trade you, and he will become the MVP. Exactly, yes.
36:29
[laughs] John Massey: "Would be fascinating to see, uh, Brooks_Gate, me and Jordan Harrison with Gil and-" Oh, and Borchard in the quarterly derivative stats and, uh, projective podcast.
36:41
Yeah, our derivatives baseball pods that we do quarterly, which Q2, by the way, is right around the corner. It's amazing. I feel like we just did Q1.
36:47
Here's the last one that we didn't get to with Jordan Harrison, Brooks_Gable. There's the one with the, uh, with Freddie Freeman and the Braves.
36:54
This is, again, the player attached with the team that has the most game-winning hits since 2010. This one's fascinating, too. So he basically did...
37:01
This is-- I think it's WRC+ is really the catch-all stat that he did this by. So this is all nine spots in the batting order where teams rank in WRC+. And if you look at the Dodgers at the top,
37:15
they're in second place from the one hole, second place from the two, third from three, second from the fourth, first from the fifth. Now, Mookie Betts' absence is gonna change this, right? Betts, fifth.
37:24
But that's how dominant they are, one through five at the top of their order. Like, they're no worse than third best in the majors.
37:34
Now, it is also interesting that when you get to the bottom half of their order, it is below average at, you know, seven and nine and right in the middle at eight. So it does drop off considerably.
37:44
Um, I think the Yankees one is particularly interesting. So San Diego, by the way, is second, right? That,
37:50
you know, who's got the-- what's the average rank of WRC+ of batters one through nine or positions in the batting order one through nine? San Diego is second to the Dodgers in terms of the aggregate.
38:02
They're kind of soft in the middle, but at the beginning and end, they're really good. The Yankees are third, and here's what's interesting about the Yankees, because remember, they bat Soto second and Judge third.
38:13
So they're first and first, second and third, and then they have Verdugo [laughs] usually in the, in the cleanup spot. They're 27th in terms of WRC+.
38:22
I, I was one-- I actually almost- By the way, they're 23rd at the, at the leadoff also. I actually almost texted you about that last night.
38:28
I was-- I ended up watching way more of that game, and I was like, "Do they really, they really stack their lineup like this?" Yeah, they do. Yeah. That's why they're one and one at two and three.
38:35
The one that's interesting, I just pulled up, uh, the Dodgers one. So it's u- it's usually, so it's Hernandez or Paez that is usually in that five spot. Paez. And they rotate those around. Paez is Weingarten's boy.
38:46
So that's actually pretty impressive, right? Yeah, you're not even talking about a steady guy there who's fifth, uh, fifth for them. They're m- mixing that up. Oh, they got the Hall of Famers one, two, three. Yeah.
38:55
Um, you know, Cleveland, the Guardians, who we had the March, April, and then the May bet, they're, you know, kind of middling in the middle. That's no surprise.
39:04
Um, I don't know, just fa- again, these are just fascinating things to look at, a different way to look at baseball that you don't often see either at all or at least graphically placed like this.
39:16
Again, I can't speak, uh, highly enough of Brooks_Gabe. And Jordan, he said to us, uh, he doesn't even, like, he, he said he's not a good sports bettor. I don't even think he knows how good his stuff is, right? Mm-hmm.
39:28
So, 'cause some of this stuff, now, you, what's the, the betting application of, oh, the three starting pitchers. Like, that's a great thing to glance at, right? For if they, if they can s- creep into the postseason.
39:38
Obviously, there's more than ERA that we look into, but all of these things are just great lenses through which to look at baseball. I mean, a lot of this you can connect to, can connect to something. I mean, this is...
39:48
Okay, if you want to talk about first inning betting, fine. Where do, where, where, where does the top of the lineup, uh, rank, right?
39:54
Like, that is something you have to take into account as long, uh, as well as the starting pitcher if you're talking about first pi- uh, first inning. Right, like at Milwaukee, for instance, right?
40:01
Milwaukee Brewers, who, you know, are atop the NL Central, right? The Angels look like a good team to go against in the first inning. [laughs] That's right. Where's the... Oh, yeah, they're not, not so good.
40:11
Twenty, twenty-sixth, twenty-seventh. Twenty-six. Yeah. Twenty-seven again at five. But, but the Brewers, right? The Brewers lead the NL Central. Imagine if they were anything but suckitude at five and six, right?
40:24
Twenty-ninth and twenty-seventh at five and si- uh, fifth and sixth in the order. In terms of WRC+, weighted runs creating plus, which is a great catch-all stat for, you know, it's better than OBP.
40:35
It's better than anything else. It really shows you your run production in the, in the whole calculus of things. Um, great catch-all stat.
40:43
So these are fascinating, and these are some other ones now here from some other teams. Anyway, graphically. Anyway, Brooks_Gabe, can't give him enough credit. Some of these are funny.
40:51
[laughs] Look how, look at, um, at Colorado at the top. Good in nothing. Terrible in nothing either, because they play at Coors, right? But good in nothing either. And then you get to, like, Washington.
41:03
How is Washington doing this, right? Right, right, right.
41:06
Washington is, is in the l- we were just talking about the best win numbers in the month of June, and they're actually, like, if you looked at the playoff picture right now, they're tied for the third wild card.
41:16
Look at the, their WRC+ second, 30th, dead last. That, then their number two spot, 30th. Number three, 26th. Number four, the cleanup spot, 27th. Number seventh, dead last. Like, [laughs] and they're, it's all pitching.
41:30
Like, they're just so soft in the middle of the lineup. This is Seattle a little bit the same, right? I mean, you're talking two- And, and Seattle's leading the AL West...
41:37
second, 27th, third, 26th, fourth, fi- 16th, fifth, 28th. Pretty incredible. And they, and they're leading the AL We- AL West.
41:44
So it's, I mean, there's, it's just so interesting to look at this, uh, to look at this stuff. Well, way to go middle of the lineup for the White Sox. You're the only part that's not absolutely atrocious, apparently.
41:54
Be atrocious these next three games, though. You're average. All right, final thoughts on game five. Uh, by the way, quick update on the, uh, Carl Sack thing. Did it move? Uh, not really.
42:03
I mean, the juice moved on the first half bet. I was wondering how much this was gonna move regardless. Just, just 'cause it is. It's still a finals game five. There's so much, so much betting and money involved, right?
42:13
Like- Yeah. Um- He'll move it, though. Like, he, he typically will. Well, I'm just saying if it was a regular season game or something like that, it's not, it's, you can't compare it.
42:21
This is so calibrated, you're saying, that it's, yeah, it's not gonna move. Yeah, yeah. I, I mean, that, I was, I was curious. I, I wasn't necessarily saying that, but I was curious to see what happened.
42:29
I mean, I, look, I think I completely agree with everything Carl said, though. Like, this is... And even him talking about- You, you feel this is a run-out. You feel your Mavericks futures ticket dies tonight.
42:38
Probably, yes. Yeah. Yeah, it's gonna be a fascinating game, though, 'cause if it doesn't, I, I mean, we still really haven't seen a tight game late in the fourth, right?
42:47
Where it's we th- where Luka Doncic is on the court.
42:50
You know, where we think that's, where we said at the beginning of the series, does the Dallas Stars, or the, the, or the Dallas Star players able to [laughs] overwhelm the Celtics in that moment. I was about to say.
43:01
Like, that's still something I... Man, if this gets tight, I, I mean, I think it's advantage Dallas at the end.
43:07
Still in the end game, I still give them, uh, the advantage there, and if, man, if you win this one, we're talking about, I think this, uh, this becomes a whole new series if they win this one tonight.
43:14
But yeah, man, I, I just don't think, I don't think you should be taking too much from what you saw in game four. I agree with Carl. If anything, first half I'd, is probably better than laying six and a half full game.
43:24
You'd ex- expect Boston to geth- get it together and get, uh, get it together quick, uh, back together tonight for them. So yeah, I think three and a half's fair. Uh, I, I think that's a good, good number for first half.
43:34
I wouldn't mind full game. I wouldn't mind... I mean, what did he say? He said he bet f- first quarter, first half, full game. I would even, I mean, I c- I, I could suggest even sprinkling in some alts.
43:44
I, I mean, how many times has th- these games really been this close to the spread, too? Like, if Celtics win, uh, uh, they hit some threes, they could win big tonight. Fezzik is angry tweeting me.
43:54
He says, "I'd be very surprised if Rufus disagreed. I think he thought the price in hedge was negative EV." Yes, e- exactly, but that's my point. It's
44:01
Fezzik and Rufus represent two people who can quantify things more precisely than 99% of people, right? Mm-hmm. So they can accurately say if something is a negative EV hedge or not.
44:12
What I'm referring to is the cottage industry of people who just defaults to hedging for no particular reason, right? And I challenge that group. It's something- Hey, bank, bankrolls all, all matter, too.
44:25
Bankrolls matter. It matters where you're at in your betting career. All of it matters. All of it matters. We've done all we can do. GoJoe and Goalie next on the radio side. Enjoy from VSIN, the sports betting network.
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