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Jun 17, 2025
A Numbers Game | June 17, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | June 17, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. This is Kelly Biddle, everybody. Yeah. Producer number nine.
0:22
So much more than a producer. Uh, how you doing? You good? I'm good, man. How you doing? Oh, I'm very well. You, you recovering okay? I'm good, man. I'm good. All right. I'm just making sure.
0:32
All right, we won't get into it. [laughs] Kelly's doing okay.
0:35
Uh, on the show today, Drew Dincic will join us from both the Deep Dive and Bet The Edge podcasts at NBC Sports Talk NBA finals with him of course, and to see if he has any grass court tennis, uh, in multiple venues today, both on the men's and ladies' side.
0:48
I will be returning to tennis here later this week. I g- I've stayed out long enough. What did I stay out for? A week and a half? We're, we're at Nottingham. We're in London on the men's side. And H- Hal- Halle? Hall?
1:00
Halle. Halle. [laughs] Halle. Um, we'll do that with Drew a little later on the show. Jake Hahn, Stanley Cup Final Game 6 tonight.
1:09
We are at the reckoning, the day of reckoning, uh, perhaps in both hockey and National Basketball Association. Mark Borchert from an undisclosed location in the desert on Major League Baseball.
1:19
Also, uh, where will Kevin Durant play next? Where will Giannis play next? There are markets that you can bet on.
1:26
I don't know my, how, how much you can get down on these markets, but nonetheless you can put a couple, uh, couple shekels on it. Yes? I, I think Durant, this happens this week, Gil.
1:36
I think this happens in the next few days. It's down to three teams, right? It's heating up. It's heating up, yeah. Oh, pun, no pun intended. No pun intended, no. Why would he go to the Heat, by the way?
1:45
I don't think he will. Yeah. We'll get to it next segment. All right, I'm sorry. But I, I think there are, uh- Jumped the gun. Yeah, we're narrowing down the list though- Yeah... that's for sure.
1:51
Uh, NBA MVP, NBA Finals MVP talk as well here, uh, on the show because we gotta get into that here with one or two games left. Is it, i- is there now some doubt as to who could win this given which team wins?
2:06
And I'm talking about OKC and Jalen Williams, I'm talking about what the Indiana side of it, what does that mean to your betting? Uh, we'll get into that a little bit later on.
2:13
As far as the game last night, game number five of the NBA finals, the Oklahoma City Thunder take a three to two lead as they take down the Pacers.
2:23
And in a Plinko finish, a complete Plinko finish, I know the last game, I know game four came down to the last possession, but I w- I, I would argue that was not Plinko.
2:32
That was just Indiana, uh, losing the money for folks who bet on them in just the most ridiculous fashion. I would say that's the bad beat. Yeah. Last night was complete Plinko to me.
2:42
I, you had no idea where this was gonna land. It was up and down. It ends up with the Pacers having the ball down 11. The close was nine or nine and a half, whatever you got the number at, right?
2:54
Uh, and then the, uh, the Pacers, they threw the ball away.
2:57
I love that you're start- [laughs] I love that you're starting right there 'cause it, we talk about, like, y- you frame it so well with the monthly wins of, like, these teams have no idea. Yes. You know what I mean?
3:05
No clue. That people are cheering things on. We're in back-to-back games now where Benedikt Mathur has been- Yeah... like the spread guy. The villain. Yeah, the spread villain if you bet on the Pacers.
3:16
And, like, I don't know about you, like, I didn't bet it, but I played it in the contest, played it in the contest for a killer sports contest. Yeah.
3:21
So it's nine and a half there when I w- it audit and I'm like, "Here it is, Mathur with the ball, with the chance," and just drives it into nothingness and- Nothing... turns it over and you're like- Turns it over...
3:29
"All right. Thanks, Benedikt." And then the, uh, the Thunder dribble the ball out.
3:33
If, if you missed this game last night, I mean, it did get interesting f- first of all, uh, Thunder took a, at the, at most an 18-point lead, 56 to 38 with 2:29 left in the second quarter.
3:45
Uh, the Pacers had a TJ McConnell quarter for the ages. He had a great game three of course, did McConnell. Uh, we call that the TJ McConnell game, but then last night he was brilliant again.
3:55
Scored, scored or assisted on 18 of the Pacers 34 third quarter points, and the Pacers chopped away at the lead. Chip, chip, chip, chip. You chip or chop? Eh, they did both. You understand.
4:07
And, uh, it got down all the way. Once the fourth quarter started then, uh, they chopped it down to th- a two-point margin from 18 to two, 95-93 Thunder with 8:30 left. Here we go.
4:19
So you chip away and then it w- it got chopped from 18 to two. You chip away- Yeah, yeah, yeah... then it got chopped. Yeah. Just clarifying. I don't know.
4:26
[laughs] Anyway, from 95-93, again two to two series at this point, a two-point game, 8:30 left.
4:34
Well, that was it because after that it was a five to nothing OKC run punctuated by a terrible turnover [clears throat] where Wallace stole the ball from Nemhardt, breakaway jam. That made it 100 to 93 in a blink.
4:46
Uh, then at 103-97 OKC goes on another run to bust it open, a seven to nothing run to make, ac- actually a 10 to nothing run when all was said and done. Four consecutive turnovers by the Pacers.
4:58
The Pacers end this game with 22 turnovers.
5:03
I'm not sure if you're aware of this, Kelly, but if you're turning the ball over 22 times, uh, and the other team is only doing half of that, you're probably not gonna win many basketball games. No, you're not.
5:11
You know what the bigger number is within those turnovers? 15 of them were steals. 15 were steals. Oklahoma City grabbing 15 o- right out of your hands.
5:19
And as great as Siakam was, and he really is, I mean, if the Pacers are to win this, he's probably your MVP. Yeah. He did have six turnovers last night. Mm-hmm.
5:26
Uh, the story down the stretch though, 'cause it, 'cause once it got, by the way, once that 10 to nothing run happened and it got to 113 to 97, I mean, think about that.
5:34
From 18 points down to two and then in a blink back up to 16. They basically traded buckets from there which led to that last possession where the spread was determined.
5:43
And so here we are, Jay Wi- Jace- Jalen Williams, a 40-point performance, 46 and four, SGA 31, 10 and four blocks. Uh, third straight game by the way for Williams with 26 or more. 26, 27 and 40 now.
5:58
The fifth player, only the fifth player over the last 40 seasons- To score tw-- I was pr-- a little surprised by this.
6:05
Only the fifth player over the last 40 seasons to score 25 or more points in three straight NBA finals games before the age of 25. Joining, you ready for this? Kyrie, KD, D. Wade, and Shaq.
6:17
You don't even have to say their names. Yeah. So that's the list. Um, anyway, as far as this goes, the, the big, the big thing moving forward-- Oh, here's one, by the way.
6:25
Uh, scored, scoring 40-plus points in a finals game, uh, the following players have never done that: Larry Bird never did it, The Dream never did it, The Mailman never did it, Kawhi never did it, and Dirk never did it.
6:38
Never scored 40 in a g- in an NBA finals game. What's the most surprising name on that list to you for this?
6:43
Uh, my initial reaction was Larry Joe Bird, but I'm gonna say A- Hakeem, that Hakeem never got 40 in any of those Rockets finals. Okay. Any of the two.
6:52
'Cause I ki- I kinda lean to the two later names, but I don't-- I guess Kawhi hasn't played in that many finals games. I'll tell you what the least surprising name was, Karl Malone. [laughs] Yeah.
7:01
That was the easier answer. [laughs] 'Cause I was like, I don't, I don't really think he ever got 40.
7:04
Um, so the-- moving forward, so by the way, now game six, obviously potential closeout, potential championship game for OKC. They are four-and-a-half point favorites now at Indiana, game six Thursday night.
7:16
Uh, four-and-a-half point favorites is where it stands right now. Could it go down? Will the markets-- They were showing five here. Uh, I see some four-and-a-halves.
7:24
Could it go down further where everybody says, "Well, you know, it's the old must w- proverbial must-win of all must-win situations"? But here's the problem: Tyrese Haliburton last night.
7:33
I mean, the big headline of the game besides the actual score, Tyrese didn't score his first points until a pair of free throws with 7:07 remaining in the third quarter yesterday. Yep. Uh, he finished with four points
7:45
in 34 minutes, finished oh for six from the field, took just one attempt after halftime.
7:50
His status moving forward will be a significant storyline because all four points were from the free throw line, this because of what Shams Charania, uh, reported at halftime, calf tightness.
8:00
Had to leave the game, kept coming back. By the way, McConnell, 18 points, four boards, four assists, two steals in 22 minutes. Haliburton, four points in 34 minutes last night.
8:10
Um, Siakam, by the way, 28, 6, 5, 3 steals, 2 blocks in addition to those six turnovers, so he was great. But anyway, Haliburton's the biggest story here moving forward. What, what can the Pacers get out of him?
8:23
What do you expect to get out of him? And do you feel like if, if the market moves this shorter, they're like, "Well, the Pacers have-- I mean, it's the ultimate must-win, right?" By the way, total 224 and a half.
8:33
Then do you jump on OKC? I will tell you this as a guy who has made l- good money on the Pacers up until the last two games, I'm kinda out of this the rest of the way. Yeah, this is, um...
8:43
Well, I, look, I think the Haliburton stuff's really tough to, to figure out, right? This is... It, it's how injured is he, right? I, I think there is something that he, he's clearly playing through.
8:53
Um, I believe we have sound from Haliburton. Actually, we could play this. He, he discussed it after the game last night, kind of where he, where he's at and what he's feeling like right now. Or not.
9:04
I mean, it's the NBA Finals. It's the Finals, man. Uh, I've worked my whole life to be here, and, uh, I wanna be out there to compete. Um, you know, help my teammates any way I can.
9:13
Um, you know, I was not great tonight by any means, but, uh, you know, it's not really a thought of mine to, to, to not play here. You know, if I, if I can, uh, you know, walk, then, then I wanna play.
9:26
So, um, you know, they understand that, and, uh, you know, it is what it is, and, uh, you know, gotta be ready to go for game six.
9:33
And i- and imagine being Rick Carlisle in this situation where you're like, "Okay, what, where, how are we better off a hampered, to the extent that he's hampered- Right...
9:40
Haliburton, even as a decoi-- uh, even a decoy." I mean, w- we're getting to the point where it's like that's not even...
9:45
It's like, can we get enough out of Haliburton that that's better than full-strength McConnell at this point?
9:50
Well, and that, and this is where it goes back to what we've talked about so many times during this playoffs where I think there, I, I think there is this...
9:55
Sorry if I get annoying with this, but I think there's this misconception of the type of player that Tyrese Haliburton is. I don't really know that he works as a decoy all that well. You know? Yeah.
10:02
He's-- We're not talking about a legendary three-point shooter or- No... something like that, that you can hide him in a corner. And when TJ McConnell's playing that well, I, it's something you kinda have to consider.
10:12
But at the same time, if you're Rick Carlisle, like, you gotta go down with the guy who brought you here, right? Like, you are not here if it is not for Tyrese Haliburton magic throughout the playoff.
10:22
So I, I mean, it is the big question heading into, h- heading into game six, Gil. Um, I mean, it, it's easy for me to say this now, but this is kinda what I thought going into game four, right?
10:32
We talked about betting the series prices or the game lines in game four, and that's where I said I was gonna make my last kinda final stand with the Thunder. I would bet them game four.
10:40
I thought they'd be able to come back and win game five, but I thought it was very likely that the Pacers could go on and win game six.
10:46
Kinda like you just said, though, I think I'm just on the sidelines re- the rest of the way because if this is... I'm not going to back the Pacers in game six when his status is so up in the air.
10:55
And I think both teams at this point, both teams for what it's worth, can say to themselves, "We should be outta here. We should've won this in five." Mm. OKC could say that 'cause they gacked game one.
11:05
Indiana can say that. They were up 10 late third quarter, you know, in game four with lots of chances to increase that lead. Gacked that game, forget about the f- the cover. And then last night down two, right? They...
11:16
Just still to eight minutes and 30 seconds. They're, "Well, if we just had a better eight minutes and 30 seconds, this would be over." Uh, it is where it is, right?
11:23
3-2 in favor of OKC, probably where it should be given all of that. But, uh, yeah, I, I've... Those last two losses betting the Pacers were enough of a take it on the chin thing. Yeah.
11:34
Last night being the ultimate point where I'm like, "Okay, cool." I, it would still- "I'm good"... be Pacers or nothing for me in game six. Yeah. But- But yeah... give it a couple days. Let's see. That's right.
11:42
Um, we'll talk about the MVP and how it relates to how your bets should fall a little later on. Let's talk some hockey, let's talk some baseball.
11:58
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Don't forget about our VSiN Pro early bird special. Look at that, a whole bunch.
12:07
NFL betting guide, daily best bets, exclusive betting splits, full access to the VSiN Watch app, deep analytics and betting tools. All of that at vsin.com/subscribe.
12:16
Full VSiN Pro access until the Super Bowl with all that, $175. How about that? Early bird special. How many times am I gonna say, "How about that?" Get in on it now. How about that? It's that Mel Allen line.
12:27
Limited supplies. Um, yes. But not really, 'cause it's digital. [laughs] That's correct.
12:33
[laughs] Um, by the way, the, uh, the, the website as well today, uh, Greg Peterson's MLB best bets, Jonathan Davis' NHL game six picks and props, Steve Macaron's power ratings and trends, all that on the website, vsin.com generally.
12:47
But that package right there, the early bird special, 175 United States dollars. It's Gil Alexander, uh, Kelly Billon alongside. Uh, the computer is on the Fritz, Kelly.
12:56
Are you having troubles with your computers as well? Your computer as well? No, my, uh, computer is not on the Taylor Fritz. Oh, nicely done. It's not on the Joe Sarala? No? It's not on the Joe Sarala. Okay.
13:05
Joe did text me a few weeks ago that he, uh, that, that some, some, some woman, uh, did mis- mistake him for Taylor Fritz. Really? While he was waiting to get his car fixed, apparently.
13:16
I, I s- doppelgangers, the two of them. He was, uh...
13:19
I mean, the funniest part, I forget what kind of car he has, but he was like, "Yeah, I'm in the Hyundai dealership and, uh, someone came up to me, and I think they realized pretty quickly I wasn't Taylor Fritz, uh, after a couple minutes."
13:29
[laughs] Didn't, uh, didn't quite have the height. [laughs] He, he didn't have... Joe, don't, don't feel bad. He didn't have the lack of personality that Taylor Fritz had. That's probably why. No, no, no. Yeah.
13:37
But more like the type of car he's driving, right? Yeah. Oh, I see. Taylor, Taylor Fritz probably, uh- I understand... rolling around in something nice.
13:42
Uh, let's talk about these, uh, these potential destinations for a couple NBA superstars. Um, we can still call KD a superstar and a difference maker. Do you... First of all, let's just start there.
13:52
Do you think that we are not overblowing that at his age? Um- 30, 36 years of age. Great question. Glad you asked, 'cause I feel like I've gotten a couple of those texts from, like, sort of NBA fans, right? Yeah.
14:03
They're like, "Hey, I'm hearing a lot of this Kevin Durant stuff. Like, he's 36. Like, what, you know, what are we talking about?" Yes and no. So it, like, there's a lot of team... Like, guess, guess what?
14:12
There's still the most valued things in the, thing in the NBA is someone who can go out there and score the basketball consistently, and Kevin Durant can do that, and there are teams that are in the NBA right now that are very much one p- that one piece away, um, I think from being realistic contenders if they just had a dude that could go out there and play 35 minutes a game and score for you.
14:33
And that is what Kevin Durant can still do and probably can still do for the next couple years. All right, let's go through these warm-up. First of all, uh, these are available at DraftKings, among other places.
14:43
Heat and Rockets, the short shots at plus 250 each. Spurs and T-Wolves, [clears throat] pardon me, right behind that at plus 350.
14:52
Uh, [clears throat] pardon me, Raptors five to one, and everybody else is a long shot, including staying with the Phoenix Suns at 15 to one.
14:59
So it's Heat, Rockets plus 250, Spurs and T- Timberwolves plus 350, Raptors five to one. Can I just start with the Heat? Yes. Let's just start with the Heat. Uh, one of the two co-, uh, co-short shots, if you will.
15:11
Is Kevin Durant added to Bam and Tyler Herro really a championship team, and would you be able to keep both Bam and Herro in this? Uh, probably w- you know, JVT, Zach, and I were kicking this around yesterday.
15:26
Zach, Zach had put together, you know, a package that was without those two. Okay. So it would be Wiggins. Like, he thought it would be Wiggins, Kyle Ware, who was the- Poor Wiggins. Wiggins goes everywhere.
15:36
Yeah, I know. Yeah. Well, well, the, uh, other thing to keep in mind, right? This, and this is for if you're betting any of this, Kevin Durant, still under contract for a year, right? You got a salary match.
15:46
You still, y- you're gonna come over on a year. So Wiggins' contract would be very important in something like that. Um, but yeah, I think you can get it done.
15:54
I think the question is that we've seen so many teams now in the NBA where, okay, you've got Bam, Herro, and Durant. What else you got on the roster? That doesn't- You know what I mean?
16:03
Doesn't feel very championshipy to me. I, I'm with you. I, I'm with you. I don't really n- I don't really think that one makes too much sense for either side. Yeah.
16:10
Um, Shams did report, this is over the weekend in case you missed it. This has been, there has been a ton of reports coming out about this over the pa- past few days.
16:17
That's why I think it does get done this week actually. Um, Dur- Durant's list, short list, is Spurs, Rockets, Heat. That's what his short list is. But r- remember, still under contract. Not his decision, right?
16:30
[laughs] Yeah. So the, the Suns have said, basically said, "Hey, we're willing to work with you," but we've seen this time and time again in sports.
16:36
It's even no matter how much we're willing to work with you, we can't pass up a much better deal.
16:41
Some of the reports that have been coming out are it's kind of Spurs, Timberwolves, Raptors with the best deals coming in right now. So take that for, uh, for what it is.
16:51
Um, before we get to the Spurs, Timberwolves, and Raptors, let's talk about the Rockets. This makes all the sense in the world, right? Rockets do not have... We saw this in the playoffs.
16:59
Crunch time, no one you can truly rely on to be a scorer. KD is at least that. He would, he would lap everybody else on that roster in that category.
17:09
Um, would what you'd have to give up here, uh, make sense still for the Rockets? Probably so. I think so. Yeah. And to me, this is...
17:17
Yeah, look, I could definitely sit here and make the argument that, hey, Rockets should s- stay the course, stay the path. They've got a lot of young assets.
17:24
They got a yacht- lot of young players that this team could grow and develop into something. But you, I mean, you just laid it out, Gil, for how good of a defensive team that Houston team was last year.
17:33
Still the mix of youth that they have and the assets that they can move. They can go get Kevin Durant, and they are... Y- you said it. We saw it all year. We saw it in the playoffs really on display.
17:43
They need someone that can go out there consistently and just score. They have enough other talent on the team to, to, to back up Durant in that fashion defensively on the glass.
17:53
He's not gonna be asked to drag an entire team. So I, to me, the Rockets by far are, are, are the best fit of any of these teams that are on here. Even more so than the Timberwolves? Yes.
18:04
'Cause the Timberwolves, obviously we've seen most recently here in the playoffs, that would be the most intriguing to me. It, it would. It would. It, it's gonna become another one of those roster things though, right?
18:13
What does the rest of the roster end up looking like after you make a deal for Kevin Durant? And it's Naz Reid is out the door. Um, it's probably a couple other pieces that are getting moved.
18:23
So it's Anthony Edwards and Kevin Durant and Rudy Gobert. How far can they take you? Probably pretty far. I mean, uh, this team made the Western Conference finals the last two years. Um,
18:33
it's sounding like the, the Wolves maybe aren't sending the best trade offers to- towards the Suns right now. But, you know, keep in mind, everything I'm saying, this is all media reports that are going around.
18:43
You have no idea what's- Yeah, who knows? Yeah, exactly. Who knows? What's true, what's smokescreens, what's not. Um, Spurs, Raptors. No, no.
18:51
Okay, so the Raptors, the Raptors I keep, I keep pushing back a bit with, with Zach and JVT. Probably main- I don't, I don't get the Raptors either... probably mainly Zach.
18:58
If you're Giannis or Kevin Durant- No, is the answer to your next question. No... are you really leaving a better- No... situation- No... for what the Raptors are gonna put around you? Yeah, I don't get that.
19:09
And maybe it is, but it's not by much. So I'm, I've not, I'm not really on board with the Raptors for either one of those guys. Let's do this in tandem with Giannis.
19:16
Again, this is first regular season minute played for which team. Yep. Right? That's what next team means. First regular season minute played for which team. The Bucks, Giannis staying with the Bucks is -500. Mm-hmm.
19:29
So it's a big favorite to just stay put where he is. Uh, if you did wanna bet another team, the Knicks are six to one. Where'd that come from? The Raptors are plus 850. Again, we just talked about them.
19:39
Then it's your dream of the Spurs at 12 to one. Kelly's dream of putting Giannis and Wemby together, and then the Rockets at 16 to one. Everybody else, 25 to one or longer. Is he staying now? I, I don't, I don't know.
19:52
I have no idea what's gonna happen with Giannis. But ju- just to finish up Durant real quick, I actually- Yeah. Oh, I'm sorry... I just, I, I, I would actually, if you're catching
20:01
two plus 250, three to one, I think Houston. I would actually throw a few bucks on it. I'm not saying that as a bet you should go crazy on it. Like you said, [laughs] you're not, you can't bet that much on these anyways.
20:11
Um, I'd probably make that bet. I think it just makes too much sense for both sides. Giannis, Gil, I have no idea.
20:17
A- and the big, and the biggest thing with it is I, I can't imagine being in that Bucks front office and looking at any trade offer and saying, "This is good enough for Giannis Antetokounmpo." It's just- Right.
20:28
You'll never get fr- fair value... you're never gonna get fair value back. Yeah. So you've gotta be okay with that and know that before you move on from him.
20:34
And yeah, I don't, I still, I think there's still a good chance he goes back to Milwaukee.
20:39
The KD thing, though, like for me, I, the T-Wolves would be the most fascinating 'cause you, you would trade Gobert for sure, right? Are you really winning a championship with Rudy Gobert in any scenario?
20:50
I, I, I think not. Rudy Gobert, Donte DiVincenzo, some combo of youth, right? Draft capital for Durant. I think that's a pretty fascinating one to me. And listen, I, he, he, he wants to win a championship, right?
21:05
This is his thing. He won it in Golden State. Believe me, uh, in Golden State, the opinion is, "Well, we won one before, we won one after. It wasn't you." But they certainly were fantastic.
21:15
Peak, peak KD with the Warriors. There was nothing quite like that. Um, but I don't know that we, that he can catch that kind of lightning in a bottle again.
21:22
But if he can, Minnesota would seem to me as good of a place as any. Yeah.
21:26
A- I mean, the, so what, run report that came out yesterday is he has no interest in going there, but again, it's not his decision at the end of the day. It's not his decision. You know?
21:33
So it does sound, it sounds like what, what the Suns are gonna do mainly is, "Okay, we've got your shortlist.
21:40
We're gonna take the best offers, and then we're gonna go to your shortlist and say, 'Hey, can any of you guys match this?'" Right? Yeah. Um, I mean, look, it would be a fascinating team with Kevin Durant.
21:48
There's no- Of course... there's no doubt about that. Him and Anthony Edwards next to each other would be awesome to watch. Um, I, uh, I think the, the Spurs stuff is interesting to me.
21:57
Just the fact that he's even remotely... Like these, that's how attractive Victor Wembanyama is already at this point in his career, that these guys wanna go play with him in San Antonio. Oh, yeah.
22:07
Like, it's, it's, it's wild, man. I, I think that would be fun to watch as well. Not nearly as fun as Giannis and Wemby together, but, uh, that would be fun to watch.
22:15
You could have a little bit of a bridge veteran player, right, with Wemby through, through the next couple years as Wemby continues to develop and grow, um, by the time Durant's out of there.
22:24
I don't, I think Spurs and Rockets are most likely for Kevin Durant.
22:27
I have such a sou- Like, if I lo- th- think of Kevin Durant's career now, I do not think the headline to me anymore is, "Oh, yeah, he won a couple championships with Golden State."
22:36
To me, it's just this peripatetic guy who was constantly trying to be part of a big three or something else. Mercenary. And he just has a terrible s- thin-skinned attitude about... Anyway. Yeah.
22:47
I don't think he moves the betting needle. I really don't. Hockey next with Jake Hahn. Let's do it. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:56
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23:04
Sign up today at edgeboost.bet with promo code ANG. Deposit $25, and Edge Boost will match the deposit. What was that promo code, Kelly? ANG as in A Numbers Game. That's edgeboost.bet. That's Gil Alexander.
23:18
That's Kelly Bidlin. Uh, let's bring in Mark Borcher from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert. You can follow him on Twitter @basewinner, basewinner.com. He joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line.
23:28
How you doing, Mark? Gil, I'm doing great, man. Can't- c- how can you complain? We're gonna be talking about June wins in MLB baseball and how they- [laughs]... pertain to our bets. That's right.
23:38
I mean, this is real, these, these are real, uh, complex first world problems, right? [laughs] There's, there's nothing else going on in the world, Mark, that, that we know of. [laughs] Let's, let's focus on this stuff.
23:47
Um- Well, I- you know, if there is, I don't wanna know about it. Yeah. I'm with you, Gil. That's a good attitude right there. It's, it's not, but it is. Uh, MLB June most wins.
23:55
Let's update that here as we are, uh, at June 17th, obviously, in a 30-day month. The Rays are your new leader in the clubhouse. Uh, they are 10 and four, as are the Astros and Red Sox, by the way.
24:07
Red Sox winning, uh, post Rafael Devers trade. Uh, all three of those teams, Rays, Astros, with their loss yesterday, and the Red Sox, all are 10 and four, but the Rays have the slight advantage in run differential.
24:19
Then you have the Diamondbacks at nine and four, and the Mets, Orioles, and Giants, black and orange, black and orange, all nine and five.
24:28
Now, I have said repeatedly here, uh, I have the Tigers, by the way, who are eight and six.
24:33
I've said repeatedly here right now, if I was betting this currently, the Diamondbacks, to me, are the most interesting team because nine of their last 10 games in the month of June are cake against the, uh, the poo-poo platter of Major League Baseball teams.
24:47
I believe it's the Marlins, the White Sox, and the Rockies, if I'm not mistaken. I'll check on that. But it's, it's, it's really an easy schedule, so they really have this on their racket.
24:56
But you and I were just talking off air about something, which is they're playing the Blue Jays right now, and the Diamondbacks are currently seven games out of the lead in the National League West.
25:07
They're obviously, they obviously have the Giants and Padres in between them and the Dodgers at the top of that division.
25:13
Uh, they're obviously, you know, only one game above 500 at 36 and 35 when it comes to wildcard possibilities. Again, just shy of halfway through the season.
25:21
Um, you know, you gotta add the Brewers in there, the Cardinals in the mix, the Reds, uh, the Phillies. You know, it's, it's a scrum of teams. And so there's this looming specter of are they going to be sellers? So
25:37
you might be able to win June, but you're saying this series right now could determine their decision-making at the deadline.
25:43
Well, I think so because GM's getting a bunch of calls from other teams, and so if, if they, let's say they get swept by the Blue Jays, they might just throw in the towel with the arms, the arm problems they've had.
25:54
So they lost Burns. They lost Justin Martinez, and they lost, I think A.J. Puck's out for the year, too.
26:00
So I think from an organizational standpoint, they could chalk the season up to, "Well, this is just, this is just an injury season. We got, pardon the pun, snake bit by injuries," and become sellers.
26:10
And so I don't think that they should, though. I think this team's really good. You mentioned the June. I, you know, I ran the simulations this morning. I knew we were gonna be talking about this. And, and they do.
26:19
They play the Rockies as well. You're right about that. Uh, 40% chance ba- uh, for me to, to have the best record in June, and that's, a lot of that's schedule, a lot of that's my numbers.
26:29
I've got this team the best hitting team in baseball, and that's, that's not just BS, you know, made up base winner fantasy stats. Right.
26:37
This is, like, OPS adjusted for park factor, last 500 plate appearances aggregated. You look at a guy like Marte, he's above Ohtani. He goes, he's between Judge. Judge, number one on my ratings.
26:48
Uh, Marte, uh, Kettle Mar- Ketel Marte, second. Third, Ohtani. Fourth, Corbin Carroll. These guys- Wow... and Suarez is right there.
26:56
But so if they become sellers, uh, it, it becomes challenging, not, not just in June, but also in the futures markets as well. And they could... The one guy that, that, that...
27:06
There's two, there's three guys they could give up. Uh, Gallen, they, no, they might deal him anyway.
27:11
Uh, but I don't think, I don't think Gallen's the guy who was kind of like a perennial all-star right there, you know, in the, in the Cy Young discussions, if you will. But Kelly's pitched really well.
27:20
He, he could be trade bait. Uh, and then Naylor and Suarez, too, are two of the other big names that are probably, like, you know, 10% better from a run production standpoint. So they've got some big names here.
27:31
But it's interesting, and if, if you can, if you can handicap it, you're a better man than me.
27:35
Uh, I just, I'm just hoping that they can, they can, uh, get, get past the Blue Jays here, get two out of three here, and, and then, and then go to Colorado.
27:43
Yeah, so just to clarify, we're talking about two different things here.
27:45
So the June most wins, yes, after this Toronto series, it's at Colorado for three, at the White Sox for three, and then home against the Marlins for three before they close out with one game against the Giants this month.
27:55
The MLB trade deadline is at the end of July, July 31st, post All-Star break.
28:00
But what we're saying here is this series against the Blue Jays, if it goes bad, their brains could really shift very quickly into, uh, into sellers mode.
28:09
And that's the thing about the MLB trade deadline for anybody considering futures on any team in Major League Baseball that's sort of on the bubble, if you will, either just on the good side or the bad side of the bubble, or right on top of it, which is sometimes these things come down to the last week and even the last series.
28:27
Like, that's how, how, you know, s- I, I guess, up in the air some of this is for front offices. They don't even know themselves until then, right?
28:38
Well, that's such a good point, Gil, and I remember the Cubs, I think it was two years back, and, and it, it's not just the team, it's how it, how it affects the other teams within the division, within the league, and, and what they're gonna do.
28:51
Uh, plus, if you're talking about futures markets and stuff, some of these guys, if they switch leagues, they're gonna lose the Cy Young- Right... or the MVP, whatever it is.
28:58
A- and, uh, uh, but I remember that the c- the Cubs, and you made a really good point about, well, that sometimes the front office doesn't even know. And, uh, they didn't know.
29:07
I, I, I, I was convinced two years ago that the Cubs didn't know what the hell they were gonna do. Right, and sometimes the fan base never sees it coming, right?
29:15
I remember an Oakland A's team that was doing quite well at the All-Star break, but Billy Beane was like, "This, [laughs] this is all a mirage.
29:22
We're selling everything," right, given our, our financial c- circumstance as well. And that fan base was like, "What are you, what are you doing?
29:29
We're right in it Anyway, that's what makes the baseball and baseball handicapping by, uh, proxy, uh, that much more j- uh, sort of challenging. Well, yeah, you know, you make, you make a really good point.
29:39
Like, I remember the Mariners, like, it was Cliff Lee, and they, like, they traded him, this is years back, and they traded [laughs] like it m- it might've been May, Gil. Yeah.
29:47
And everybody was like, "What the hell with it? The season's just started." And they're like, "Oh, we're gonna get something for this guy." Uh, what did you land on today, Mark?
29:55
Well, speaking of the Diamondbacks, I think they should be favored here, and they're underdogs. Uh, I've got them priced at, on this, uh, on this particular game at minus 120.
30:04
Uh, again, it goes back to the, to the offense. Number one in baseball by my, by my ratings. Uh, and of course you have to navigate with that bullpen.
30:12
It's 25th in baseball, but that goes into the, into the calculus here. It might be better, like looking at this, talking through this, to, to play at first five. Uh, but I'll say for, for purposes of the official, uh,
30:27
a numbers game record, Gil, I'll give it a full game and go, uh, Arizona plus 124 is what, what I had last night. I think it's probably gone down a little bit. Is it still a play at plus 108?
30:37
That's what we're showing right now. Eh, plus 108 sounds good. Actually, they should be favored mi- minus 120. Wrong team favorite. Even with that, that bullpen that's, uh, like at what? 25th in baseball right now, Gil.
30:47
25th in baseball, but they've held up okay at least recently. Um, boy, there was a stretch where they were just brutal. Um, but 25th in baseball nonetheless, still a play on the Diamondbacks.
30:56
Wrong team favorite according to, uh, Mark Borchardt. I, uh, I dare I ask, 'cause I don't wanna ever prompt a parlay, but it seems to me that's your signature. Do we have one today?
31:06
Well, I don't know why you guys are so down on the parlay. I mean, it's, it's had a p- I've, I've, b- basically on the MLB show, all I do is give out parlays, and I've won for three straight years on the show.
31:16
Well, I'm not down on it then. So like, I mean, how can we be so down on the show?
31:19
But I tell you what, if you guys are, are into like s- are really against not being sharp and being a square bettor, this is the squarest of square parlays. [laughs] Dodger, Dodgers Yankees. Yeah. Man.
31:31
Risk one, and you, and risk one to get even money on it. [laughs] And, uh, I, but I just, I, this Randy Vasquez is awful.
31:39
You'll, in fact, in that Dodger game, I wouldn't be opposed to people playing the Dodgers over, uh, if you can do it, and, and you can at some, some sports books.
31:47
Uh, first five Dodgers, first five over parlay, uh, that sort of thing in that Dodger game.
31:52
But I, I just think that, you know, you look at a, at, at the Angels versus the Yankees, yeah, it's minus 260, but I think it should be minus 300. Uh, Hendricks is one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball.
32:03
We talked about the 25th bullpen. Well, the Angels have the 27th bullpen.
32:07
And then you, you look at the Dodgers team and, and, uh, number two in baseball offensively, but the bullpen's really kind of coming around seventh in baseball right now versus, and if it...
32:16
I don't think it's gonna come down to this 'cause Vasquez is so bad, but if it comes down to it, it's the seventh bullpen versus the 16th bullpen, so you have that going for you.
32:24
I just haven't been too impressed, Gil, with the, uh, the Padres, especially on the road. I know we talked about this on the show.
32:30
It seems like there's a different en- energy, uh, when San Diego plays at home versus when they play on the road, and it goes, it translates into the numbers.
32:38
If you look at the offensive numbers, uh, for San Diego, [smacks lips] uh, at home versus on the road, um, there's a stark contrast there. So, uh, it's interesting that, that you see that when you watch the game.
32:47
Sometimes you see stuff and it's just complete mirage, but in that, in that case, uh, it's backed up by the stats. So, so yeah, Dodgers, uh, uh, Yankees.
32:55
And, and sometimes it's get even money, but make a parlay, win the bet, get even money, Gil. My man. Comes on the show, he's like, "Dodgers Yankees parlay." I love it. Hey, listen, proof is in the pudding.
33:05
The, the wins, the, it doesn't matter if you, you don't, there's no hero points here. If you win a Dodgers Yankees parlay, it, it spends the same, I understand.
33:14
Uh- Plus, Gil, handicapping should be about love, and I love the base winner parlay, and so maybe that's why it's winning. Universally great, right? Mark Borchardt, ladies and gentlemen.
33:24
Base winner, also gave us the Diamondbacks, uh, plus money this morning. Uh, interesting thoughts about the Diamondbacks. Mark, appreciate it very much. Thank you. Yo, thanks a lot. Enjoy the show. My man.
33:35
Uh, Mark Borchardt and I doing our, uh, quarterlies for MLB on the Beating the Book podcast side as well. That, uh, Q2 one is just around the corner. Hockey, this time I promise, next.
33:44
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:55
Unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, and alerts directly from the pros. Where's all that? At sharpplays.com. Invite you to check it out.
34:07
Have you checked it out yet, Kelly? I have. Yes. All right. Reminder that this show is powered by KI betting analysis. Not, not quite as good. KI betting analysis? Yeah, Kelly Intelligence. Oh, Kelly Intelligence.
34:18
That's right. It's not quite as good. No, not quite. [laughs] I don't know. You say things like, well, I do think so. Maybe it is, because you say things like, "JJ Spawn is legit.
34:28
Thurston Lawrence is not," and then people three day, four days later are like, "Thanks so much, Kelly." That's true. "You got us a winner." [laughs] That's true. I'm like, "Wow. You got all that from that?" Yeah.
34:38
Uh, let's talk some hockey. Game six of the Stanley Cup Final is tonight in Sunrise, Florida, where the Panthers have a chance to close out the Edmonton Oilers. Jake Hahn joins us now.
34:48
You can follow him on Twitter @jhan4. Of course, co-host of The Point and the Fantasy Hockey Show at SiriusXM. How you doing, Jake? I'm doing great, guys.
34:58
Always love when I, I can join you guys, especially on a game day. Obviously, huge game six Cup in the building. And, uh, Kelly's right, by the way.
35:05
JJ Spawn, I have to acknowledge, he is legit, especially with what he did over the weekend. Thurston Lawrence, I mean, he showed up at a couple majors randomly. Outside of that, totally not legit.
35:14
And I also have to start to, to acknowledge, I think Ben Griffin might be legit as well.
35:18
He doesn't look like he should be, but all of a sudden he's just popping on every leaderboard, uh, every time I turn on my TV on the weekend. So I, I gotta give him some props as well.
35:27
How did your US Open go betting-wise for you? N- not well. Kelly knows this because I was texting him, and I can't complain because I did hit Ryan Fox the week before.
35:36
So I, I don't wanna get greedy here, but hey, we do like to get greedy sometimes. I had Sam Burns, who was looking great all weekend- Cool...
35:42
uh, even on Sunday after a, a blip early, he still got the lead going to the back nine, and then, uh, he cau- he really did catch some bad breaks on that back nine, guys. A couple divots.
35:51
He l- lands into a, a water on the fairway, doesn't get his relief. So th- those are the breaks.
35:56
Uh, I guess I kinda felt bad for Burns that that's how it played out, but, uh, ultimately he got a taste of the smoke at a major on the back nine, maybe a learning experience for him. And happy for a guy like J.J.
36:06
Spaun, who's grinded on the, the PGA Tour for a long time. I never in a million years would have bet J.J. Spaun, so I, I certainly, it didn't feel like I missed out on anything there.
36:13
L- l- that positive Jake Canadian attitude. I love it. You know? Love it. Like, my, my remote would have been thrown through the sliding glass door probably- Yeah... if I was on Sam Burns at that point. Oh, man.
36:22
So cheery. Made a play out of the puddle, Jake. I- They made a play out of a puddle. I w- I wanna check who, who the, who was the rules official, like Tyrrell Hatton's dad or J.J. Spaun's dad or- [laughs]...
36:32
some- like Victor Hovland's dad. I'd- I've watched the whole thing play out.
36:35
I thought, "Okay, he's pr- he's gonna get some sort of relief here," and I saw the videos after, and I mean, it was a huge pa- We all, and we all saw how the ball reacted off his club, right?
36:42
And all the water that came up. I thought, "Really? They, they made him hit out of that?" Like, that's kinda silly. I, I would get it if you're in the rough. You don't wanna improve your lie, but you're in the...
36:50
You hit a fairway, so, uh, I don't know. D- not a great call unfortunately, but, uh, ultimately J.J. Spaun, uh, well-deserved down the stretch to, to rally from that tough start on Sunday. All right.
37:00
Speaking of Canada, I don't know if you know this, Jake, but Canada, no team from Canada, has won a Cup since 1993. What? When the Montreal Canadiens did it, yes. Also, Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season. What?
37:11
Yeah. Um, so I just wanna ask you before we get to tonight's game about game five. Uh, we were back at Edmonton. Edmonton, you know, it was a de facto best of three series.
37:21
Edmonton had games five and seven at home, and they come out and Florida takes a two to nothing lead in the first period. They end up winning it five to two.
37:29
Edmonton just didn't look good at all, and I'm being kind, I think. And my question to you is, listen, they, they were down three to nothing to the Panthers last year.
37:39
They won three games in a row until they lost game seven. If you, if we're putting this together, and maybe this is, maybe I'm, I'm reading into this, does Edmonton have a, a pressure problem?
37:50
Like, when they're, when they got nothing to lose, they play great. When there's pressure on the line, they play poorly. Or is this just hockey, that, that it's random like that?
37:58
I think this is, this is the Florida Panthers. This is a...
38:01
And we actually did a deep dive on this on our show on Monday, kind of 'cause it was our first time getting a chance to talk after that game five that you mentioned on Saturday.
38:08
And we went through all the results for this playoff run so far for the Florida Panthers.
38:12
And in my opinion, when they get to their A game, guys, when they play this, this ceiling game of the Florida Panthers, I'd never wanna call somebody unbeatable, but they are very, very difficult to beat when they play that A game.
38:23
And if you look through the results, not only do they beat teams when they play to that level, but they beat them quite comfortably, and these are good playoff teams that they're doing that to, winning by, you know, three, four.
38:32
W- we saw what they did to the Maple Leafs in that game seven, right? Just r- absolutely running them out of the building when they get to that A game level. Uh, and they just suffocate you.
38:40
They give you no space out there, and I, that's the first time I think we really saw them do that for 60 minutes to the Oilers in this series on Saturday.
38:47
Now, the, the funny thing with the Panthers is when they play their B and even C game, they still have a chance to win those games.
38:53
That's when you see Florida either win or lose by one goal, where okay, maybe you can get them a little bit and an opportunistic team like Edmonton can take advantage of it.
39:01
So I hate to say it, guys, uh, uh, at least from an Edmonton side, if Florida plays their A game again tonight, this series is probably over because it is so hard to beat them when they're taking away time and space the way that they did on Saturday.
39:12
That, that really was the perfect road game that the Panthers played on, on Saturday night in Edmonton. And do you see it going that way tonight? Do you see it being a, a closeout for Florida?
39:21
Well, again, it comes down to, to what kind of game the Panthers have. Now, obviously, they, they can draw back from the experience. You mentioned Edmonton, right?
39:27
Coming back from three-nothing last year, and this isn't three-nothing, but the Panthers know, okay, we, we don't wanna make, let this happen again. And at least last year they had the game seven in their own building.
39:37
This time the game seven would be in Edmonton, uh, which you could say would be a lot of pressure on the Oilers, and you know, the Panthers have been a great road team as they showed over the weekend.
39:46
I, I think the Panthers get it done tonight, guys. Not enough to make a bet on that money line, though. I, I think it's a little too steep getting close to that minus 150 range.
39:54
Uh, that being said, I did take Edmonton before the series.
39:57
It's just tough after what I watched on Saturday, and I just think the Panthers have that look in their eyes knowing we're, we're not gonna let this happen again.
40:04
We're not gonna let them back into this series and, and drag us back to Alberta and have to ask those questions again.
40:09
So if you're trying to make a case for Edmonton, they're in the exact same situation that the Toronto Maple Leafs were in in the second round. They needed to win a game six in Florida.
40:18
Toronto went in and they shut out the Panthers and they dragged them back for a game seven.
40:22
So your case for Edmonton is if the Leafs can do it, certainly the Oilers can do it, but the Stanley Cup Final might be a, a, a different beast, and I just think the Panthers, they wanna win this one in front of their, their home crowd tonight.
40:32
All right. Let's talk Conn Smythe for a second here. With, uh, one or two games left, uh, I'm curious if you still think that they're, that this is actionable.
40:40
Sam Bennett of the Panthers, obviously Panthers have three games to do.
40:43
Sam Bennett, um, leading the entire postseason in goals, minus 150, and Conn Smythe, of course, a full playoffs award as opposed to the NBA Finals MVP, which we're, we'll talk about later.
40:55
Uh, Sam Bennett minus 150, Brad Marchand plus 370, and then the two Oilers, obviously, Draisaitl seven to one and McDavid now plus 750. That, of course, dropping because the Oilers are down three games to two.
41:08
Um, nobody else but tho- Let's start with this. Nobody else but those four guys can win this at this point, right? No goaltender, nothing? I, I don't see it.
41:18
I, like it would ma- it would probably ta- I mean, Bobrovsky technically could only have one shutout 'cause if it came tonight, this, the series would be over. Yeah.
41:24
And I don't think that would be enough, uh, for him to get it done. And, and there's, we don't even know who's starting for the Oilers in net tonight. There's that debate.
41:30
I think it's gonna be Stuart Skinner, but they're kinda leaving that up in the air.
41:33
If you look at the odds in prop market, they're, they're posting Skinner, so I feel like the oddsmakers have a feeling it's, it's gonna be Stuart Skinner tonight.
41:40
But even if Skinner came back in, had a shutout in, in this game, shutout in game seven, I don't, I still don't think it would be enough to win it. So you're right, I think it's these four guys here.
41:48
I, I've said Sam Bennett all along throughout the course of this series, and I don't think he's done anything to, to loosen his grip on the Conn Smythe Trophy, but man, is Brad Marchand making a great case for himself.
41:58
And I, I've said this on my show a couple times, he's strangely become a bit of a media darling now this late part of his career. He used to kinda be the, the hated guy, the, one of the villains in the league.
42:08
You know, not a lot of fans liked him. Even media didn't like him. But I, I feel like he's, he's become likable all of a sudden, so that might play with voters a little bit.
42:15
If he can score another big goal tonight and help them win the game, m- it might be enough to push Marchand over the edge.
42:21
My vote's still going to Sam Bennett, but, uh, you have to give a lot of respect to, to Marchand, and it's still a, a pretty healthy number there around, around four to one for him. Let me just do the mathematics here.
42:30
If, uh, Edmonton is plus 280 on the series price, right? They gotta win two games. Uh, they're plus 280. Draisaitl seven to one, Connor McDavid plus 750.
42:38
Obviously shop around for the most fort- for the, for the best numbers. But if you put a unit on Draisaitl and a unit on McDavid, right? Um, that's still a better play than betting the Oilers on the series price. Yes?
42:53
I believe so. That's the way I would play it. Yeah. In my mind, that makes a lot of sense.
42:58
And even if, like if you were gonna make a one unit play on the Oilers to win the series from this position, I think even a half unit, like take your unit, split it in half, go, you know, half to Draisaitl, half to McDavid.
43:07
I think that's probably a better way to play it, because I don't see any universe that any other Oiler would win the Conn Smythe if the Oilers ultimately do come back and win two games this week.
43:16
So I like that way of playing it. My lean would still be towards Draisaitl, so maybe you wanna even give him a, you know, a little bit more- Yeah... uh, in terms of that unit share.
43:24
I, I s- I do like Leon, but man, when you see plus 750 behi- beside Connor McDavid, you think, "Can he put on that cape tonight and on Friday night and, and lead this team, uh, to, to a game seven Stanley Cup win?"
43:34
That, that could also be enough for him to get it done. Yeah, of course, but my scenario only works if the Oilers win it, right? Obviously, if they don't, then you've lost- Yeah...
43:41
two units in that scenario as opposed to one. [laughs] So that's the downside of it, so I, I am aware of that. Um, but this, this is what makes all this very interesting.
43:49
And again, just to stress, it is not a Stanley Cup Final award, it is the entire post-season where McDavid and Draisaitl, uh, neck and neck on points.
43:59
Draisaitl obviously has the edge on goals, despite Connor scoring the other night. Uh, McDavid has the edge in terms of assists. But Draisaitl with the four overtime game winners, which is a record.
44:10
Uh, e- an amazing career feat, let alone in one post-season. One would think, he says with his Draisaitl ticket, one would think that if the Oilers [laughs] won this, it would go to him, but it is Connor McJesus.
44:22
Uh, Jake, enjoy the game tonight. Hopefully we, uh, see a game seven. I do think we could see our first under tonight as well, guys. Ooh, okay. But I do hope we get a game seven. Let's, let's find out. My man. Thank you.
44:33
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