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Jun 17, 2025
A Numbers Game | June 17, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | June 17, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:08
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. Gil Alexander, Kelly Midland.
0:19
Still to come this hour, uh, Drew Dinsick standing by to talk with us, and, uh, we will do NBA Finals MVP talk. Should your money be in that market rather than on the series itself by proxy at this point?
0:31
Um, I think I know the answer to that question for at least one team. I thought it was a great point that caught Smythe talking about that last segment with Jake. Like I, I would, yeah. Yeah.
0:39
If you're looking at Oilers, I would just bet those two guys. Yeah. If, if you think it's the Oilers, right. But know that you will lose double though, obviously, in that strategy.
0:45
We get tweets at Beating The Book, Cowboys_Cubs1, "Prime time, yo. Hey man, looking forward to you having true Americans Mike Palm and Dave Ross join you for a roundtable discussion regarding Dak's legacy. Huge ratings.
0:57
[laughs] Also, you lived in San Francisco, don't believe you ever mentioned that." That must be from yesterday that I mentioned that. I don't think I've mentioned it today. Hey, all our shows are in podcast form.
1:05
That's right. So you can catch them whenever you want. That's true.
1:08
Um, and the Cowboys thing is because with all that was going on yesterday, post-US Open and NF- uh, Major League Baseball trade, NBA trade, ESPN, what was it, First Take was, was talking about Dak's legacy.
1:20
That's what that was from. Yeah. Um- I mi- I might've seen today s- uh, top sports movies that make you cry. Wow. By the way, I have an answer for that. Save those bullets.
1:29
Like it's- I, I have an answer for that question... it's June 17th. We'll, we'll be, we'll be kicking around this stuff a month, five weeks from now. Sp- top sports movie that made me cry, Brian's Song.
1:38
That was one of, that was one of them. Absolutely, that when I was a kid.
1:41
Bruce Dobingen, "Brad Marchand is the sports equivalent of Joe Pesci, of the Joe Pesci character, always just a step away from a trip to the cornfield, but still raking it in."
1:49
Uh, your, your guy, ScottyB726 from San Antonio, "We don't want KD." I don't... He's, he's, he's very angry. I thought he was a Pacers fan. Now he's, now he's talking about from San Antonio.
1:58
Chris Heath, "All I know is ever since I took Boston under 80 and a half wins," the Red Sox, "all they've done is win." That's very true. Nine of 11 for the Sox.
2:09
Real Nicks, "Maybe this is more for Kelly, but as a loyal viewer and someone who spent 23 years as a TV director, I feel qualified to suggest something.
2:16
It would be great to see today's pitching matchups on the head to head game graphics. It helps the lines make more sense." Eh. Taken to it. The man was a TV director. Kelly is taking it under advisement.
2:27
Arrel, "Hey, uh, Gil, stop hating on the base winner parlay. Let my guy cook." And the String Fellow Hawk says, "Don't poo-poo the parlays, Gil." I wasn't poo-pooing the parlays.
2:35
That was Steve Fezzik who was, who was the first guy, uh, for those who missed it. Somebody hit a nerve with Mark. Yes. [laughs] That's for sure. He was very upset about it.
2:42
Uh, Steve Fezzik was the guy who goes, "I really like Mark Borchert. He's so intelligent, and then at the end of every segment, he gives us a parlay." Steve is anti-parlay, so Mark is sensitive about that.
2:50
But Mark's winning. There's no, there's no, there's no countering winning. Yeah, don't apologize for anything when you're winning. That's right. Uh, this gentleman joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
3:00
He is the co-host of not one, but two podcasts, of course, The Deep Dive with Andy Molator, Dinsick Classic, and NBC Sports Bet The Edge. It's Drew Dinsick, which he does with Jake Craftcher, by the way.
3:09
How you doing, Drew? I'm doing well. Um, great, uh, intro banter as always. Uh, got me thinking what was the last sports movie I was, I cried. Um, I have a recent sports documentary where I shed tears of joy.
3:26
Ooh, which one? Um, it was, uh, 100 Foot Wave. It's an HBO production which, uh, kind of chronicles big wave surfing.
3:36
Uh, and, uh, they had back to back just absolute spectacular episodes in season three, uh, episodes three and four.
3:44
Episodes three, these guys go out to the Cortez Banks off the coast of San Diego, shwup, m- multiple hour boating drive to get out to, uh, this mythical wave in the middle of the ocean. What?
3:55
Uh, and then it was, you know, just absolutely spectacular seeing, uh, you know, the, the m- the k- kind of the modern technology and the drone footage showing these guys surfing, uh, you know, 50, 100 foot surf out in the middle of the ocean.
4:08
Uh, and, uh, you know, that kind of, you know, that, that being sort of a mid-season episode really gets you g- you know, get, gets your, gets you excited for what's next.
4:16
And then the next one was, um, a, uh, uh, a breakdown of the 2022 Eddie Aikau Classic, which of course takes place in Waimea Bay, as you guys know. Um- Sure...
4:27
the big wave surfing contest that, uh, is only called on when the waves are right. Ooh. And it had been a 10-year wait for the next iteration of the Eddie Aikau.
4:38
Uh, they run it in, uh, in 2020, I think it was either 2022 or 2023.
4:42
And, um, a, uh, the, the, first of all, the, the, the way that they, I, I, spoiler alert if you haven't already seen it, but, uh, you know, the, the storytelling around these guys going out to, to ride these waves and the meaning behind the contest, uh, you know, the legacy of Eddie Aikau, all of it was just absolutely, um, you know, pulling on the heartstrings.
5:04
And then- [laughs] Wait, there's more... this guy who is a lifeguard. Yes. This guy who's a lifeguard at the beach in Waimea Bay, on his lunch break, goes out and rides and wins the contest. Wow.
5:17
And is literally just like, "Oh, my," you know, has tears of joy streaming when he finds out that he won. And, uh, it was, uh, it was pretty f- fantastic.
5:25
Best episode of television I've watched all season, episode, episode four of, uh, season three of 100 Foot Wave. That- That is the greatest promo that docuseries could ever have gotten. Oh, for real. Yeah.
5:34
All I got in response to is I recently saw the surfing film Chasing Mavericks with Gerard Butler from 2012. That was pretty good actually. That was indeed. It was pretty good. It was pretty good.
5:41
That, that didn't make you weep, though? No, not make me cry. No. Did not make me cry. Do you find, Drew, that you cry more often now than you used to? I, c- Chasing Mavericks made me cry, man. Yeah. Jay Moriarty. Yeah.
5:51
D- uh, he, he's, he's a, he's a, uh, he's a figure.
5:55
Uh, he, you know, he, he actually was relatively well known and famous in, uh, in anyone who cared about surfing circles in the 2000s because of his epic wipeout at Mavericks.
6:06
I'm, I mean, we're talking like somebody got the perfect photo of the, maybe the worst wipeout of the decade. Uh, and everyone's like, "Whoa, who was that?" [laughs] Oh, that's Jay Moriarty.
6:16
Uh, and, uh, he survived it, uh, but then ultimately, uh, did lose his life. So it was, uh, quite a sad story.
6:22
Do you, you have, you have come on this show, we've talked about obviously football and basketball above all, but you have come on this show and you've made a, a bit of a cottage industry on, on some random sports.
6:32
Do we have a, uh- [laughs] Do we have a cycling- Tour de France coming up, right? Yeah... tip or tour, Tour de France coming up that you can share with folks? I work, man, it's, this year's gonna be an epic there, man.
6:41
Um, speaking of amazing documentaries, uh, if you haven't watched any of the, uh, the Tour de France Netflix, [laughs] um, I wanna say it's something about the chain.
6:50
Uh, but, uh, yeah, those, those behind the scenes looks, uh, of the Tour de France are just outstanding. And I, but yeah, you're hitting on something which is correct, which is I am a niche sports-aholic. Yes.
7:01
Niche sports-aholic. We had to come up with a word for that. Do you have, you have given us winners in the past. Do you have some, some tips for us on that, on the tour? For the French Open?
7:10
Well, I don't, I, I don't know. It was the Tour de France is coming up, right? Oh, sorry, sorry, the Tour de France. My bad. Yeah. Yeah. Tour de France? Yes. Uh, the, um, of course.
7:17
The, uh, the favorite is Tadej Pogačar. He's probably in the 75-ish percent chance to win. Uh, and then 24-ish percent chance to win is Jonas Vingegaard.
7:27
Uh, and then I would leave 1% for, uh, Remco Evenepoel, uh, as, uh, as the likely winner there. And they probably finish in that order, uh, barring a crash or injury.
7:39
Pogačar first, uh, Vingegaard second, and Evenepoel third. Pogačar. Uh- Minus 245 over at DraftKings, and Vingegaard plus 200. Minus 245 represents value- That's a pretty good plus... Drew? Represents value?
7:54
Uh, I'd say, uh, a hair, yeah. A hair of value. Yeah. Okay. All right. Uh, how did your US Open golf tournament go? I mean, it was entertaining.
8:04
[sighs] Um, I was staring at a complete windfall if Sam Burns holds on, uh, heading into that, uh, weather delay. Um, and then watched, uh, that windfall dwindle from five figures to $500.
8:22
[laughs] And it was like, "Oh, fun." Uh, so it was, ultimately it was a, it was a positive, um, overall outcome, and there were folks in the pool that I play in that had hellacious Sundays. [laughs] The, uh- Yeah...
8:37
the massive ejection by Adam Scott being kind of the most, um, clear and obvious.
8:42
That was a, uh, that was a six-figure swing from, uh, where he was tied first till not landing in the paying, paying portion of the pool, uh, which is, uh, insane.
8:51
Um- I, I like your use of the word- So, yeah, it was- I like your use of the word ejection... it was crazy.
8:54
I've, I've seen you do that with multiple sports now, when someone just gaks it, like in a, in a disastrous kind of way. I like the, uh, you're, you're gonna use it- Out of here. Yeah. Total out of here thing. Yeah.
9:04
Yeah. Um, let, let's talk because we'll, we'll get to basketball on the other side, but we obviously have two grass court tournaments going on on the men's side, two on the ladies' side. Mm-hmm.
9:11
Do you have anything left today in either, uh, Halle, London, Berlin, or Nottingham? I do not. I am watching for entertainment purposes this battle of Jannik versus Yannick. Jannik with a J versus Yannick with a Y.
9:25
Uh, Sinner versus Hofmann. Mm-hmm. Um, really a competitive match. Hofmann's a very tall man, uh, a very good server. Uh, so he is difficult to defeat on grass as you would expect.
9:37
Um, but Sinner is, uh, your most likely winner in Halle.
9:41
Uh, and then, um, yeah, watching some, uh, going back and forth between that and Alcaraz, just trying to get a sense of how these guys are, um, you know, tuning up for, uh, grass season.
9:51
Both of them kind of working their way into form as opposed to really kind of having their best stuff now, which is completely understandable.
9:57
So, um, yeah, we got, uh, um, mostly data collection going on right now as grass season is notoriously short. Um, this may be the only time we see some of these players on grass.
10:08
I will say that kind of reflecting on last week's results, um, pay attention to what Taylor Fritz is doing.
10:14
He obviously did not care at all about clay and did not put in any effort or any preparation or really kind of try to sharpen his performance whatsoever. Um, but he was awesome in Stuttgart.
10:23
Uh, his performances kind of backed up what I was kind of suspecting, which was he was gonna be a el- you know, a, a second half of the season kind of a guy. Um, so keep a very close eye on where he lands in the draw.
10:36
He would be, you know, assuming he avoids a Sinner and Alcaraz quarter, um, he would be a, a pretty good shot to win his quarter, uh, at Wimbledon.
10:46
Uh, and, uh, I think has probably a realistic chance here to, uh, challenge Alcaraz for the, uh, the Queen's title, uh, in London Town.
10:55
Um, and then on the women's side, um, mostly just interested to see what in the world is going on with Ons Jabeur. Um, not sure you saw this, but she did not qualify for Berlin. Mm-hmm.
11:05
She first of all had to come through qualifying, which was like a, "What is she doing in the q- Oh my God, where is her ranking?" Like, "Wait, how bad have her, have her results been this year? Wow."
11:15
Like it is shocking, shocking, shocking stuff. And she did not ultimately win her spot through to the Berlin field via qualifying. She lost, uh, but she was pulled into the draw as a lucky loser, uh, and won yesterday.
11:29
And now she, uh, um, she has a fascinating match-up tomorrow against Jasmine Paolini.
11:34
And at face value with the numbers she's put up this year, you wouldn't think she would be anywhere close in terms of odds, but, uh, she's plus 120, you know, plus 125, which seems crazy.
11:43
So, um, fascinated to see if she can build some form into Wimbledon and maybe have a chance. Ons Jabeur, who has been to two Wimbledon finals. NBA next
11:57
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network Want to bet smarter? Start with smarter insights.
12:02
Right now you can check out Greg Peterson's MLB best bets, Jonathan Davis' NHL game six picks and props, and Steve Macaten's power ratings and trends.
12:10
And later today, you can check out NBA game six analysis and picks, Zach Cohen's tennis best bets for Wednesday, and JVT's MLB picks and props.
12:18
Right now, you can sign up for as little as $9.99 to get full access to all VSiN articles. Just head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today. Uh, we're talking about, uh, random sports off air.
12:31
Uh, also not quite a sport, but a sport nonetheless in its own way.
12:35
I put up the-- I, I reposted that, uh, clip that you and I had from two and a half years ago when Oz the Mentalist, Oz Pearlman, came on a numbers game and read me silly. Called out the eight of clubs out of the pack.
12:50
He was not even with us. He was not even in studio. He was remote. Yeah, just on Skype. Called out the eight of clubs, then randomly knew what athlete ran- random athlete I was thinking of.
13:01
You gotta watch the clip again after the show of beating the book. Um, can we try to get him back on, do you think? I, I have, I have emailed management team. Okay. The management team. All right. Let's get Oz back on.
13:10
They, they have not responded yet. Is we're still, still in terms of [laughs] they have not responded. I don't think-- He's too big now for us. Oh, we, we caught him right as- Yes...
13:18
like, like he had been on like one thing. Yeah. Like you had seen him on like one national sports show. Yeah, that was- And we were like, "Oh, that might be fun." Yeah.
13:25
And then like after that, he's been on, I mean, like I think I saw something from Off On [laughs] Out a few weeks ago kind of killing everybody, every network for continuing- Doing... to put him on- Yeah...
13:34
'cause it's the, I mean, it's the same thing every time, right? Yeah, but I, I just wanna say, it's still one of the freakiest things that's ever happened to me.
13:41
I still have no explanation for any of it, and as I watch other clips of him doing other things, I still can't figure any of it out. Couldn't get- Maybe I'm just a dummy... couldn't get in the steel trap.
13:51
Couldn't get in the Kelly Bidlin steel trap. That, that's the only way- So... I think we're gonna get him back on is I'm just gonna keep reminding him that- Keep smack talking him... he's O for one against me, so.
13:59
You can't read me, Oz How impressive can you be? No. Uh, Drew Ditzick joins us once again, uh, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, @whale_capper, uh, on the old Tw- on the old Twitter machine.
14:10
You ever had a Oz Pearlman read you, Drew? No. No. Yeah. But I, I'm with, I'm with Kelly. Yeah. Mine's a steel trap. Yeah. He's not getting me. I th- I thought mine was, too. Apparently, I am open as a- [laughs]...
14:21
open as the openest book you'll ever find in the world. That was scary as hell. That was like, I didn't think his, his thing was gonna work over Skype at all.
14:28
I totally figured that had to be an in-person thing, and yeah, he-- That was incredible. I d- I don't know. I'm also- On Gil's Twitter...
14:35
I'm also one of these people, though, I will tell you this, uh, and I shouldn't relate the two. But you know, like magic tricks, basic magic tricks, I'm like, "What?" Right?
14:43
But when he does it to you in that fashion- Yeah, it freaks you out... it's beyond a magic trick. It's an incredible thing. Anyway. Don't play poker with that guy. Don't play poker. Oz. Don't play poker. Yeah. Uh, okay.
14:52
Before we move on to the NBA, any-- So just the last thing about Wimbledon, have you made any pre-draw women's side? I'll, I'll, I'll worry about the men 'cause obviously the men are top-heavy with Sinner and Alcaraz.
15:04
But have you made any women's side long shot plays pre-draw? I, uh, one of, uh, friends who matches outrights with me some, from time to time took Sabalenka against me. Um, so I'm against Sabalenka. Uh, I laid,
15:21
I laid, uh, 265. Um, I don't think that's fair at all. I think Sabalenka is being wildly overpriced for this tournament at this point.
15:30
I think, um, although you see performances from the Andreevas of the world recently, and you're like, "Well, maybe, maybe it's a smaller mix than I thought."
15:39
Um, ultimately, if I had to take one horse right now, it'd probably be Rybakina. I like the way she, I like the way she played in, in, uh, um, Paris.
15:47
And I think, uh, just having h- you know, having the, the title, uh, on her resume and the fact that, you know, we now have enough space from, you know, the, the nonsense that was going on with her coach, um, is all a positive thing for her to have, uh, you know, a pretty, um, a pretty solid run here.
16:06
Uh, I think she's your Berlin winner, um, personally, and, uh, I think that she rides that momentum into a solid performance at Wimbledon.
16:13
So against Sabalenka and on Rybakina, um, but, uh, o- the only bet I have is against Sabalenka. Okay. Uh, to the NBA.
16:22
Oklahoma City taking the three to two lead last night, a game that they were up 18, then they were only up two, 92 to 90, with eight minutes and 30 seconds left in the game, and then they run out the Indiana Pacers, who have a Tyrese Haliburton injury problem and just a general problem of trying to defeat the Oklahoma City Thunder defense specifically, uh, which has just been absolutely phenomenal in this series.
16:46
It is a Thursday night game in Indiana. The Pacers are four and a half point dogs as they try to stay alive and force a game seven, which would be Sunday at OKC.
16:56
Any play, by the way, a 224 and a half number, uh, posted, uh, for the total in game six. Any play side or total here, Drew? Yeah. I think you shop for an alt spread on the Thunder. I don't understand why this is five.
17:10
Uh, Haliburton is pretty obviously not 100%, and if he's not 100-- I mean, uh, g- oh, oh, what, what do we need Haliburton for when you have TJ McCollum, am I right? [laughs] I mean, like, o- okay, congrat- Same play...
17:22
like that was, that was a spirited little moment there in the third quarter.
17:25
But, like, I, I'm, I am in no way, shape, or form interested in a Pacers as an extending, um, extending play here with Haliburton limited the way he is. Um, this injury is non-trivial.
17:38
Uh, it's been kind of speculated that it's Achilles related, uh, you know, C- Achilles tendonitis, calf, uh, related.
17:45
And I think that there's, this is, this is pretty clearly the worst possible matchup to have that s- level of injury, uh, considering they have wave after wave of defender that can get very physical, uh, and ma- really make life difficult for him in this one.
17:59
So, um, Pacers to me are in, in n- at a really, really just Uh, atrocious spot here.
18:06
Um, they're gonna need every bit of, you know, the supporting cast to have their best games of the, you know, their best game of the playoffs, I think, to keep this one competitive.
18:16
And, um, while there are pretty clearly signs with the Thunder that are concerning, like Sa- Shay- Shay looks very, very tired.
18:23
Um, the, but that cuts both ways because a lot of what the Pacers are doing to kind of make him tired is now affecting them, um, through the me- you know, through the, the, um, full court press, through the super aggressive defense they're playing.
18:37
And, um, yeah, I'm, I'm not thinking that, uh, there is much of a, a glimmer of hope here that the Pacers can put up a fighting chance. And I think the, um, um...
18:49
I would lay up to about nine and a half here, uh, and feel pretty comfortable that this is the closeout spot for the Thunder. Yeah. Ju- just to clarify, it sounded like Drew might have said alt under.
18:57
He said alt Thunder, uh, just to be clear on that. Alt Thunder. Alt Thunder. Alt Thunder. Yes. Don't want that get- that could be misconstrued.
19:04
I don't hate Pacers team total alt under if you can find that, but that's- No... a real niche market. Um, let me ask you about a, let me ask you about a trade, uh, that took place- Sure...
19:15
on Sunday, the Desmond Bane trade to the Magic, where the Magic just gave up a, what, what seemed to me to be a ridiculous amount, four first-round draft picks. Um, we went through the details yesterday.
19:26
Um, I get it if you think, if the Magic thinks that Desmond Bane puts up, puts themselves in, puts the Magic in a, in a real true blue conversation about winning the Eastern Conference.
19:38
Anything short of that, it seems like a haul that exceeds someone like Da- like Desmond Bane, uh, Desmond Bane's level of talent. And he's great. It makes sense going to the Magic.
19:48
I get it, the Magic are a terrible three-point shooting team. He is great at that. He's great at the stop and shoot as well. They are specifically bad at that.
19:56
Uh, but KCP and, and, uh, Cole Anthony go over there, plus a slew of picks. Uh, and Memphis is now also saying that they're keeping Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr., which doesn't make a lot of sense.
20:06
How do you read that trade? Does it move the gambling needle for you at all in terms of the Magic side of things? Uh, y- yeah, a little bit. Not, uh, not running to make a bet off of it.
20:18
I think the Southeast goes through Orlando now pretty obviously. Even if KD does end up in Miami, I still think that the team to beat in the Southeast is Orlando. Um, and I would say that
20:30
at face value, that's the type of package that you give up for a top 30 player, and Desmond Bane is not a top 30 player. Uh, he's more like 45-ish neutrally in the NBA right now.
20:42
Um, that's, and that's, this, this isn't even including, like, the compensation part of it. But, um, just from a efficiency standpoint, what is he? He's, he's in the, the top 45-ish. Um, the, the
20:55
kind of important part though is he's not top 40 on the Magic. He's a humongous upgrade over what they were getting at the shooting guard position from last year. KCP going to Memphis is addition by subtraction.
21:10
Uh, and then Bane coming in is kind of the perfect player to fit that system and really help, uh, kind of open things up for Paolo and Franz and, and really help those guys continue to develop.
21:20
So, um, this is sort of a bet on, uh, you know, the fact that you hit on your draft picks in Franz and Paolo and, uh, I completely understand why the Magic would do it.
21:30
Um, by the way, it's not like the Magic have necessarily utilized their mid-round, first-round picks well in the last couple of drafts anyway.
21:38
So, um, you know, it's, it, you, I think maybe they are looking at what is available, uh, at that point in the NBA drafts and deciding we're never gonna get a player of Desmond Bane's cal- caliber even if we get four swings at it.
21:50
So I, I think I, I understand the, uh, team building from the Magic side of things, and I think the fit is just absolutely as perfect as you could ever hope for.
21:59
Um, but, uh, it doesn't really move them clearly into the top four in the East, even with a limited Celtics team.
22:05
So, um, I think the, you know, the over under on Magic seeding for next year in the Eastern Conference is four and a half.
22:12
Um, if they, if things break well, they're near, they're in the top, they, they stay healthy, they're in the top four. Um, otherwise, they, they could be in sort of that five, six range again.
22:21
Um, but, uh, yeah, there, there's, you need a humongous leap still from Paolo, uh, to be, um, truly competitive and even in a weakened Eastern Conference.
22:31
Um, but Bane on the floor and the spacing that he provides and his, you know, his ability to be a second banana as far as a creator off the dribble and, uh, his, you know, his ability to, um, you know, to be a catch and shoot guy is, is huge for them.
22:45
So- Thank you, Drew... I think that was a win for the Magic. Appreciate it. Drew Dincic, everybody. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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23:38
Futures wagering just got a serious upgrade. Let's go, Alexander. A couple follow-ups on some... Oh, uh, we get tweets. Let me read some tweets. I haven't-- been neglecting the tweets, Kelly. What am I doing?
23:47
How dare you? Brian Morianan, uh, "ANG podcast form is great, but do we have video from when you guys were sitting in the right seats? Also, best surfing movie are Point Break and Blue Crush for very different reasons."
23:58
[laughs] I also threw back at him, uh, Surf Ninjas. That's a good one as well- Mm... with a r- with a young Rob Schneider.
24:04
Steven Kalick, uh, "The Champ with Jon Voight gets me every time talking about movies that, sports movies that make you cry." Yeah, I remember that one too. Very, uh, tear-jerking for sure.
24:15
You know what I can't stop crying on that has nothing to do with sports movies? Every time I'm reading like something about Ananda Lewis, MTV VJ. Hmm. Yeah. I cannot stop crying. What's going on?
24:25
Uh, Kelly did say Search Ninjas is a classic.
24:28
Ace DeCardano, I'm not sure what this is, uh, apropos of, but he says, "Remember, Gill and Kelly, fans don't boo nobodies, and well-run casinos don't give free trips and perks to people who beat them."
24:37
Thank you for that. Todd Hoyer, uh, "Next time Drew is on, we need him, we need his take on '80s, '90s niche sports movies. What an era. Movies about BMX, Rad, karate, many- Mm-hmm...
24:48
rollerblading, Airborne, gym-" Oh, that was a great movie. Underrated movie, Airborne. [laughs] Seth Green in it. It's the most ex- most exciting Kelly's gotten all day.
24:56
Gym- Brian, Brian Ortega's probably back there s- cussing me out right now. Gymnastics, American Anthem, cycling, Breaking Away, and skateboarding, Gleaming the Cube. I don't know that one. No?
25:06
Like, I know a lot of the skate movies. Wow. Todd Hoyer, good tweet. Got all that. A couple follow-ups on some stuff.
25:12
One, you know, we were saying earlier about the Pacers, that Rick Carlisle has to make some assessment on, okay, how badly hurt is Tyrese Haliburton? By the way, if it is Achilles related, right?
25:22
Remember Kevin Durant had the calf issues- Yeah... and then it popped. The last thing, the very last thing on earth you want to happen here, right, is for Haliburton to have some catastrophic injury.
25:33
So he does have to make... And it would, God, if it would be the last game of the season, right? You don't want that to happen. Um, meaning late June, right?
25:42
You know, the, that sets the timetable back all that much more. Um, you don't want it to happen in any circumstance, but that would be the worst of the worst.
25:48
So he's gotta make the assessment, you know, we were talking earlier about, okay, Haliburton, non-peak Haliburton versus T.J. McConnell. But Drew makes the point that I was gonna make earlier, which is T.J.
25:58
McConnell is one thing, but if you've ever played basketball at any level, and if you ever observed basketball at any level, a guy like McConnell, it's one thing to come on with a burst off the bench.
26:09
It is an entirely different thing to start the game and think you're gonna get that kind of production throughout. So that's, that's obviously the other f- the other part of that assessment.
26:18
And then so, you know, again, stuck behi- between a rock and a hard place if you're Rick Carlisle. And then two, the Desmond Bane thing we were just talking about. You wanted to add something to that? Yeah.
26:26
Well, we were talking yesterday about, like, is there, did I think there was any immediate tr- uh, you know, betting implications. Yes. And, and Drew brought up something interesting there, 'cause no, I would not.
26:35
There's nothing I would do with that right now. I think that the Magic are too short-priced.
26:38
And, and part of the reason, though, I to- I said I wouldn't really do anything right now, 'cause we don't know about Giannis and we don't know, don't know about Kevin Durant.
26:45
What Drew brought up there, though, is if the Heat are actually in play for Kevin Durant, the Magic would be a bet on for me in that division after the Durant trade.
26:55
'Cause they're probably going to-- The Heat will become favorites probably in that division- Yeah... and they should not be favorites, in my opinion. I, I think that's what Drew just said, too.
27:02
I would, I would agree with that, yeah. And I, I would bet Magic at a don price, uh, a- against the Heat. Yeah. I'll give you a chance to wear your Southeast Division hat. Oh, that's right. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
27:10
I gotta find that one. Yeah. You know, G- uh, y- you know, uh, uh, what was it? Buddhist man actually sent me the AFC hat. I actually have the AFC bucket hat at home- Yeah... which I could never wear.
27:20
I, there's no way I could ever wear it anywhere. [laughs] Uh, Touchdown Jesus ads. If I'm late tuning in this morning, it's because I'm getting gas a couple towns over.
27:28
It's a, uh, joke about our commercial that runs all the time. Uh, YoWorthy311, "Surf Ninjas, so underrated. So many great movie moments. Love this show."
27:35
You know, like I rewatched it, I rewatched it for the first time in like 20 years, Gil, 'cause it's like a mo- it is such a, it's a movie i- 15 years ago in Best Buy you would've seen in like the $5 bin.
27:47
At this point it's like you can't even find it on a streaming service or anything. It's got Ro- a young Rob Schneider, who's, who's r- a redhead.
27:55
So it always ma- Well, I, I rewatched it like a year ago, and I was like, "Is Rob Schneider like a redhead and we've just never seen him as a redhead since? Or what's going on?" You know? Hmm. No, he's not a redhead.
28:04
These are the things I think about. Uh, Brian's Song was the movie that I cr- that I could not stop crying on when I was a kid. I guess it was an early '70s movie. Um, so I, I guess I saw it some years later.
28:15
But Brian's Song, uh, about Brian Piccolo and his best friend Gale Sayers, or they were, they were put together as roommates in a time where, um, uh, where, you know, racial tensions were such that, that aren't today.
28:32
And, uh, they formed a friendship. And Brian Piccolo, played by James Caan, by the way, Billy Dee Williams played Gale Sayers. Brian Piccolo, uh, ended up, um, stricken with terminal cancer.
28:44
And, uh, when, uh, Gale Sayers, or I should say Billy Dee Williams as Gale Sayers, gave the locker room speech, I just remember being a faucet of tears as a little kid. And you know how it, I stopped crying?
28:56
When my mom said these terrible words to me, goes, "Gilly, you shouldn't cry. These aren't people you know. Why are you crying?" [laughs] And I look at my mom, I'm like, "I cannot believe this woman.
29:06
I ju- I am really emotionally bent by this, and she's telling me to stop crying." Anyway, um, odds- I should not be laughing at that. [laughs] You don't know these people. You don't know these people.
29:16
I'm like, "Well, they hurt my heart." Odds to win NBA Finals MVP. Remember, Conn Smythe is for the whole playoffs in the NHL. Odds to win NBA Finals MVP, Kelly.
29:25
And the point of this is to consider is there a bet to be made here by proxy if you wanna jump in, rather than in other markets in- including a series bet. So let's just take, obviously, Thunder up three games to two.
29:39
Shai, SGA is minus 550. Jalen Williams, despite everything we were just saying moments ago, plus 750.
29:48
So keep in mind, Jalen Williams f- you know, one of five players now under the age of 25 to have three consecutive games of 25 points or more in an NBA Finals. That's it. Uh, with 40 last night.
30:01
And so, you know, the Jalen Williams number has crashed, but crashed is in quotes, right? Because it's still at plus 750. It was, what, 40 to 1 two games ago? Yeah. Okay.
30:11
But if you look at the numbers, and again, this is a full playoff, you know, statistical thing, SGA 32.4 points against Williams is 25.8. Uh,
30:24
J- J Williams still has a, J- Jalen Williams still has an edge in assists, excuse me, rebounds, 5.6 to 4.6 per game. But SGA has the lead in assists, 5.0 to 4.2. SGA has the lead in steals, 2.4 to 0.8.
30:38
Has the lead in blocks, 1.8 to 0. Um, does have a little tick more of a turnover, 3 versus 2.2. Also has the best sh- better shooting percentage, 47.4% to 44.7%. I'm getting way too far into it.
30:52
It's really that scoring column that will matter the most, and again, that's 32.4 to 25.8.
30:57
So I think despite Jalen Williams' heroics, I do think betting him right now, unless he drops 50 in a, in a, in a winning game six, I, they're giving it to SGA if OKC wins this, I believe. I'll take it a step further.
31:11
I, I don't, I think, I think if you're, if you're, if you have a Jalen Williams bet, first of all, I would not bet it right now. No. I would not, I would not bet this right now.
31:18
I, it, it's, you just ran through all the numbers.
31:21
I mean, Shai is on a run of, and if you've been watching the games, they've been throwing up a bunch of these, throwing out these stats, throwing up a bunch of the graphics of where does he rank all time in their first NBA finals?
31:32
And it's, I mean, it is names, legendary names of the sport for what Shai's doing in this NBA finals. I don't, I don't really think J- I, I don't, I'm not gonna say Jalen Williams doesn't have a chance.
31:42
I think it's gotta go seven, though. I think you're talking about- Right... like, he's gotta put up, like, 40 in a game six and now 40 in a game seven. Agree. Agree. 'Cause also- That's the only way...
31:50
'cause also right now Shai's got the moment, right? The moment was fourth quarter of game four in Indiana. Yeah.
31:57
And it's, last night was amazing, but [laughs] then it's, I mean, it's, even when you go to build up last night for J-Dub, right? Oh, Shai had a 30-point double-double. Yeah. Okay. 30-point double-double.
32:08
And they're also putting him at the free throw line on jump balls now apparently as well. That was the most ridiculous point of that game yesterday. That was [laughs] Oh, jump ball? Oh, you fouled him, McConnell.
32:16
I know you can't jump high. McConnell then smacks it [laughs] away. I'm like, oh God, really? We're putting him at the line? Uh, I do think, though, that there is an implication here on the Pacer side.
32:23
If you do think that the Pacers come back and win this, right? This was simil- not quite the same thing as the Oilers, because the Oilers, again, it's a full playoff thing.
32:32
But I do think if you think the Pacers come back and win this, which is a massive if, by the way, I don't know if you think that or not, but if you do, I think you bet Siakam at 12 to 1 here at least.
32:40
And now you're not gonna be able to get as much down on this as you would a series price, so I do have that one caveat. But the series price on the Pacers is not quite as high as 12 to 1. Um, it's- Yeah, plus 950...
32:52
it's plus 950. So you, you should put some on Siakam at 12 to 1, because I don't think anybody else can win it on the Pacer side, unless Halliburton somehow just hit two game winners in six and seven.
33:04
That'd be the only possible way this could be a conversation. But Siakam, again, you know, 20.6 to 15 points, uh, versus Halliburton. 7.4 boards to 6.2.
33:15
Yes, he's, he trails him in assists, but everything else, blocks, steals, field goal percentage, it's all Siakam. It's not going to anybody else if the Pacers win this, I don't believe. Yeah.
33:26
I just, i- if the Pacers win, is Halliburton really not gonna be a part of the story? I don't know. In that one I guess I would just rather bet the series price. Hmm, interesting.
33:35
Well, I'm saying you, you still bet the series 'cause you get more down on it, but I would sprinkle a little on Siakam for, at 12 to 1. But that's a big if, of course.
33:42
Coming back, we'll recap all the bets and more, next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on our numbers game, live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas.
33:59
Un partido de numeros. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Dermer. We get tweets of beating the book.
34:03
Keith, KWagner625, "As someone about to turn 43, man, I remember my brother and I watching Gleaming the Cube and Rad on VHS countless times in the very early '90s.
34:14
Loved the extreme sports movies at age 10, LOL," he says. Uh, Dell-Mind-the-Gap Radio. I don't think I've ever seen that one. Gleaming the Cube, I'm gonna have to check that one out.
34:22
Every time someone says Gleaming the Cube I start thinking of, uh, what was that? Oh, Romancing the Stone comes up in my head. Christian Slater and Tony Hawk, there we go. There you go. Sign me up.
34:34
Um, Dell-Mind-the-Gap Radio, "Pride of the Yankees, Gary Cooper as Lou Gehrig." That made him cry. Chance Copper Pot, "I always ask my mom why she was crying during movies. I'd say, 'You don't know any of these people.'"
34:44
[laughs] If you're like, you're like my mom. "P.S. Gleaming the Cube was a huge flop in 1989 starring Christian Slater, where he had to rescue his kidnapped brother while riding his skateboard."
34:53
[laughs] I'm just reading the fir- I am reading the first line of Rotten Tomatoes right now.
34:58
Listen, if I have to- Uh, a California skateboarder, Christian Slater, solves and avenges the death of his adopted Vietnamese brother. Kelly, if, if you get kidnapped, I am totally trying to rescue you on a skateboard.
35:08
[laughs] It's the only, it's the only way. I got no shot. [laughs] I pledge to you that if you ever get kidnapped, that's how I'm gonna try to rescue you. All right. On a skateboard. How long are you gonna try for?
35:18
Oh, man. Till I get the hang of it. Till you fall out a brigade hill. [laughs] Till I get the hang of it. I gotta, I gotta get the hang of this so I can rescue Kelly. That'd make for a good movie.
35:26
Uh, num- You have, like, a nice '80s montage of you getting better and better at skateboarding. [laughs] No, I don't. Numbers guys, need them tennis picks. All right, I'll get to them.
35:36
I think we may resume tonight on the grass. Uh, g- a week and a half is far too long. I, I get, I get it. We'll be back on the, uh, tennis soon.
35:43
I, remember I pledged, one of my New Year's resolutions was I'm not betting the grass season, but a week and a half is enough. I've made my point.
35:50
I gotta stop, g- I, is Gleaming the Cube this big of, like, a, a cult hit? Apparently so, 'cause- I'm, I'm scrolling down. I, like, I am looking at the funniest image right now.
35:58
It is, it, it is a where to wa- where to stream Gl- uh, Gleaming the Cube, and the picture next to it is just an old school Pizza Hut standalone restaurant.
36:07
[laughs] As soon as I get the hang of it, you're gonna be in another country by then on the skateboard. Uh, let's recap all the bets courtesy of G-BAKE, the official bank of VSiN.
36:16
Um, I only put these up still because you can get as good-ish or better of a price on these. Uh, Leon Draisaitl, I have nine to one to win Conn Smythe. A lot of folks have a lot of, a lot better number than I do on that.
36:28
He's still plus 700. He's still seven to one He would be the short shot if you are by a tick over Connor McDavid if the Oilers come back and win this seven to one, two...
36:38
I mean, how often do you get a, a bet at seven to one with two games right in front of you that you're, it's pretty much a coin flip between him and, and McDavid if you can win those two games? Yeah.
36:51
So it's still, it's still a bet to me. I, I agree with Jake, and I'm sure you do too, right? You would go a little heavier on Draisaitl than McDavid? I would. Yeah. Me too.
36:58
How can, how, if you're a voter, he won four games in this post-season in overtime. It's never been done before.
37:04
How can it be- And of course all it's gonna take is one awesome Connor McDavid goal in game seven, and they'll be like, "Oh." But it's Connor Right. Yeah, yeah, I know.
37:12
Uh, I have- I mean, that's what's tough with the Stars, right? It goes back to us talking about Shea. Yeah. Finals MVP. It's just, I know we want, we want those long shots- Yeah... but, like, to take down- No...
37:21
a big name is tough. No. Ti- uh, Tigers, I have 16 to one most wins. They're only two games back in the win column, but they're th- and they're 30 to one now.
37:30
30 to one at DraftKings for most wins in June, and guess what? I can't recommend it. I just can't.
37:37
I couldn't tell you to put bad money after, after bad because even though they're only two games back, they, they're really working with one fewer game than most of the others.
37:46
And again, the Diamondbacks are the team with the easiest schedule, and they are one of the teams with 10 wins. Tigers have eight wins. Um, Diamondbacks are priced less than five to one.
37:59
Recommended them the other day when they were higher, so I hope you jumped on that. Uh, Mark Borchardt jumped on the Diamondbacks tonight. Diamondbacks plus 108.
38:06
He thinks wrong team favorite in the Diamondbacks-Blue Jays interleague game, so he's on the Diamondbacks. Uh, and then he's got a Dodgers-Yankees parlay. Don't poo-poo the parlays. Don't hate on the parlays, he says.
38:18
So he goes Dodgers-Yankees parlay at even money, and then he's got, uh- This is also a parlay. This is the- Oh... first five one he discussed.
38:24
So the Dodgers on the money line and the Dodgers-Padres over in the first five. Dodgers money line, Dodgers-Padres first five over, parlay plus 120. Shohei yesterday, by the way, uh, one inning of work.
38:38
It was not an efficient inning. Gave up two hits and one run, but that's the old, uh, that's, this is gonna be a pitch count ramp-up of, uh, epic proportions, a crescendo.
38:49
They're not gonna take any risk with, uh, Shohei. Still was good from the plate, still got himself two RBI, uh, in the Dodgers victory yesterday.
38:55
So, uh, Shohei's first return to the mound after 22 months was to much fanfare, but it was only one inning worth of, uh, of pitching from Shohei. Uh, and then Jay Kahn. Jay Kahn with the hockey.
39:07
He's on the under tonight. Oilers-Panthers under six and a half. Boy, that's a, you gotta take a big gulp when you, uh, play these unders in these hockey games. Oilers-Panthers under six and a half.
39:19
A potential closeout tonight in Sunrise. The Panthers looking to win back-to-back Stanley Cups. Both final, both finals will have been against the Oilers if they do that.
39:31
And remember, this is their third consecutive appearance in the Stanley Cup final. So the Panthers essentially, although in reverse order, will have done what the Tampa Bay Lightning just did.
39:41
Tampa Bay won back-to-back Stanley Cups, then they lost the third. Uh, Panthers trying to, uh, lose the first, if you will, and then win back-to-back titles in years two and three of the, of their three-year span.
39:53
Oh, Drew, by the way, Thunder. Laying the, he's laying the alt price. Yeah, I used nine and a half 'cause that's the one he said, but he said look at alts. When- Look at alts on the Thunder game six Thursday night.
40:03
Uh, Kelly, the one he, Kelly put up is Thunder minus nine and a half at plus 164. Which I, I can't... I mean, Gil, I think you and I are just gonna be on the sidelines it sounds like.
40:12
But if you feel like you've got a good read on the Halliburton situation and it is really gonna hold him back once again in game six, I can't knock that bet.
40:21
I think there's a lot of people like me that probably ma- that probably were pushing it with the Pacers, made a lot of money this playoffs, played them in the disaster game four, couldn't believe we lost that plus the points, and then last night was just Plinko.
40:34
I'm sure Crack's gonna have something to say about Plinko on, uh, Thursday when he's in. Man, it is. It, it's crazy they even got that close last night.
40:41
Like, you, you fi- like the, like that Thunder offense was finally clicking last night, the defense was grabbing f- uh, 15 steals, and still it was a two-point game, one point in four quarters. Two points. Awesome.
40:51
8:30 left, yeah. Uh, all of that bet brought to you by All of It Bets, that is.
40:54
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41:30
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41:40
I think I said, uh, value, just like Lionel Richie did in the Commodores hit, "Just to Be Close to You." You know that one, Kelly. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Um- Can I, can I attach some... Oh, I'm sorry.
41:49
You wanna say something? No, no, no. It's o- It's o- I was gonna update some NBA stats, but go ahead. Oh, I was gonna update... That's funny. You're gonna update some- Ooh...
41:54
some, I was gonna do just some, some numbers to the Desmond Bane thing- Okay... real quick before you do yours, um, just to attach some numbers to it.
42:00
Desmond Bane, uh, in that trade to the Magic, one of three NBA players with 800 made three-pointers and 40% three-point shooting since entering the league in 2020, and he has shot 43.2% on catch and shoot threes in the past five seasons, third-best rate among players with at least 1,000 attempts.
42:18
That's according to ESPN Research. The Magic ranked last in three-point field goal percentage this season, 31.8%, last in catch and shoot threes. That's so bad.
42:28
In fact, the Magic had the worst three-point field goal percentage in a season since the Lakers in 2015, '16.
42:34
So it is the, quote-unquote, "perfect fit" for a guy who averaged 19.2 points, 6.1 boards, and 5.3 assists in 69 games this season, um, and is only 26 years old, contract running through the 2028, '29 season.
42:49
My only point about it is, oh my God, how much did you give up? Like, in other words, y- it was, it was the two players, KCP and Cole Anthony, and then the four, [laughs] the four draft picks.
42:59
I- if you had just offered three of those draft picks, couldn't you have got a g- I mean, who are you competing against, I guess, is what I'm saying. Yeah, no, that, I mean, that- Yeah...
43:06
that's always what was most curious about it to me, was just more the timing. Yeah. 'Cause it, it was w- were you really c- were you competing with other people here? I have no idea.
43:13
Or, or did you just want to send an over, kind of an over-the-top proposal right away to get this done? I don't really know. I think a, I think there's a lot of this timing. Uh, the timing's interesting.
43:24
I, I don't, I'm not necessarily saying the teams are involved, but I'm wondering if it's somehow around what's gonna happen with Kevin Durant, and they just wanted to get the, get this out of the way first. I don't know.
43:33
I'm interested to see the fit. I think it still relies on what Drew talked a little bit about, of Franz or Paolo need to take that step forward of, like, "Hey, I'm the guy with the ball at all times." Yeah, yep.
43:45
And I don't know that they're all fully comfortable there. There's just a real quick, if you bet any of the series leader props, like I have, um, Shai leader in points, no big surprise, uh, there.
43:54
For threes, I have a Lou Dort bet here for th- lead in threes. He is tied with Aaron Nesmith, 14 apiece. So that will be, uh, coming down to the wire, and then rebounds, Chet's running away with.
44:04
Assists, I'm gonna lose my Shai bet. I think Haliburton 36 to Shai's 25. Do you remember what you wanted to end yesterday's show with and you never got around to? Thank you to Tims.
44:14
I met two Tims at, uh, Green Valley Ranch, one with Vegas Matt, who works with Vegas Matt. He does a bunch of the casino content you see on Instagram. Great guy.
44:21
And then Tim who bou- another Tim who bought me dinner and then left the bartender a $500 tip. Good job, Tim. Tim- Well done... winning all around. The Tims, thank you. Money Moves with Stormy and JBT next.
44:31
Enjoy from VSiN, the sports betting network.
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