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Jun 18, 2025
A Numbers Game | June 18, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | June 18, 2025 | Hour 1
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0:53
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
1:04
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, visa.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. Gil Alexander. This, ladies and gentlemen, is Kelly Bidlin- Hey, man...
1:16
lo- alongside. How you doing? Hey, y'all. Hey, y'all. We'll start with hey, y'all. Um, you having a good day? Good morning? Yeah. Good, good day yesterday? Sure, great day. Uh, we got a lot today.
1:25
Will Hill will join us, all of his bets, NBA, MLB, full day of Major League Baseball action. Uh, you'll talk some, uh, country clubbing with Travelers Championship this week.
1:35
It's, it's, it's, it's, that's my best, uh, country clubbing, uh, yeah. No. Well, that's pretty good. Yeah, Travelers, let's go. [laughs] Time to win money betting golf this week. We're gonna try that for a change.
1:44
As opposed to last week with- Yes [laughs]... that whole US Open debacle. JBT, our, uh, senior NBA analyst and of course, co-host of, uh, VSiN's Money Moves, talking NBA finals with us, and Steve Fezzik.
1:55
I have saved perhaps the headliner for last. Steve Fezzik, who's usually on with us on Fridays, a little summer schedule happening. Mm-hmm.
2:03
Uh, he'll be here Wednesday to talk about all kinds of things, including, I'm sure, his victory in the VSiN Killer Sports NBA challenge. Three large. Don't worry, Steve. Got that graphic ready just for you, buddy.
2:15
And you know, I think I have an answer to the question of how, 'cause now Steve has pledged, kindly pledged his winnings. He did this from the outset.
2:21
He said if he wins, he's giving his money to the, uh, to the Circa room attendants.
2:26
See, I was so tripped up by that wording at first that I never once thought about, like, how's he gonna spread out the money to everybody, but you're about to clarify that.
2:33
So I, uh, maybe I shouldn't say this out loud, but I'm too far into it now. I can't stop. Uh, they're gonna somehow pick their 10 all-star room attendants and give 300 to each. That's how they're, that's how they did it.
2:44
Wow, no pressure on the Circa managers now. Wow. [laughs] That's what they're gonna do. You're, you're forced to play favorites. By the way, I'm just gonna turn down my battery pack here behind me- [laughs]...
2:53
because it's so loud in my ear. My God. Uh, okay. Uh, congratulations to anybody who had the Florida Panthers.
2:59
Oh, by the way, the other thing we're about to do here is, uh, the tried and true numbers game annual segment that we do, where we talk Major League Baseball, American League, and National League Cy Young Awards.
3:11
Those markets, where we go into the Tom Tango numbers and try to reveal where the value is. This is a tried and true method. It's, it's kind of akin to the old, uh...
3:23
It's not really akin, 'cause the college basketball formula's like six criteria that we do that always comes up with the, uh, the national champion or the, or the small group from which the national champion can come.
3:33
This is an actual, very simple formula that has given us, you ready for this? 32 of the last 38 Cy Young Award winners correctly. Yeah, that's pretty good. All right, we'll get to that momentarily.
3:46
Congratulations to anybody who had the Florida Panthers winning it at any point, either before this series, either at any point during the playoffs, or perhaps regular season, maybe even pre-flop.
3:56
Panthers back-to-back winners of the Cup, back-to-back winners over the Oilers, five to one win yesterday, and, uh, congratulations to anybody who had Sam Bennett to win, uh, Conn Smythe. Good for you.
4:07
Uh, for those of us who, uh, had some dry sidle tickets, specifically on the other side, well, that's just how the cookie crumbles. Panth- Panthers win it five to one. Um, what can you say?
4:18
This is, this is the Tampa Bay Lightning, uh, three-year stretch in reverse. Tampa Bay won a couple Stanley Cups, then they lost the third try at it.
4:26
Panthers lost the first time they got to the finals, beat the Oilers back-to-back here to win a couple Stanley Cups, and Canada still with a drought since 1993. Oh, Canada, I'm sorry.
4:40
I think that's how the anthem starts. Oh, Canada. [laughs] Oh, Canada, I'm sorry. Yeah.
4:43
The, uh, and especially when it's, y- you just, uh, you just compare it to the Florida Panthers winning it, and, uh, Gil, Gil, I'll, I'll, I'll let you in on something.
4:52
The, uh, there are some hardcore Florida Panthers fans down there in South Florida. Are there?
4:56
I'm not, I'm not gonna say they don't exist, but there's also people waking up this morning having no idea this game occurred [laughs] Yeah... or that they won another Stanley Cup. Oh. Uh, so yeah.
5:06
Yeah, Hockeytown USA, Sunrise, Florida. That's, that's right [laughs]. Sunrise, Florida, Hockeytown USA. Yeah. Just a, just a football's throw away from the Everglades right over there.
5:15
Uh, by the way, next year's, uh, Stanley Cup champs, Oilers plus 650, Panthers seven to one. Yeah, apparently, I think it's, uh, different books, different favorite, but yeah- Yeah...
5:25
over at DraftKings, it is Oilers the short shot plus 650. Uh, did you g- did you catch this? You know me, I'm not the, uh, craziest hockey guy. How about Corey Perry?
5:32
[laughs] Now lost his fifth Stanley Cup Final the last six years. [laughs] Last six years, he's had to go that far. Shout out to great associate producer Wyatt Tomchek for first delivering the stat to me.
5:43
How about, how about Evander Kane not showing up for the, for the, uh, the congratulatory line after the game? Yeah, that seems less surprising to me. Got a penalty late, and he was like, "Yeah, I'm, I'm outta here."
5:52
Classless, they're calling him. Anyway, congratulations to all who had either. Um, to the NBA, where the Tyrese Haliburton injury now has gotten To the point where he is a game time decision tomorrow night.
6:06
Game time decision tomorrow night, and this line has now, I won't use the word ballooned, but it's moving on up. Uh, now the Thunder, we're showing six and a half, but I've seen higher than this now.
6:16
I've seen sevens out there on the Thunder. You've seen sevens? I have, yes. So six and a half is the consensus right now.
6:22
Thunder, six and a half point favorites on the road against the Pacers tomorrow night for game six, which could be the closeout, and the championship game winner for the Thunder.
6:31
Halliburton again with that calf injury, a game time decision. It sure feels like, and you know what they say about feels and, you know, assuming stuff. But I don't know, it feels like it's trending to no, but we'll see.
6:44
Game time decision is a game time decision. Trending to no what? I think- That he doesn't play? It feels that way to me. I could be wrong. Oh, I, I guess I feel the complete opposite. Okay. I, I think he's going.
6:54
I, I'm actually, I'm a little shocked this moved as much as it did. It- you're right, it hit DraftKings yesterday. It hit Circ- Circa hit seven yesterday. DraftKings hit seven yesterday. I didn't catch that.
7:03
I thought six and a half was as high as we got. I was- Well, that's what I'm here for, catching things. I was a little surprised it, we moved this much. It's just, just 'cause I don't...
7:10
Was anybody that surprised at that news update yesterday? Like, okay, he has a calf strain. Like, you, you kinda could see that in the game, uh, in game five, and we've kinda heard reports about that already.
7:21
Okay, you're gonna go get an MRI. You always do that precautionary anyways. [laughs] And, uh, I, I don't, I just didn't think there was that much that had changed to, to, to justify this big of a move.
7:31
Now, if, if he gets ruled out, it's gonna move even much further- Oh, yes... than even this. Oh, yeah. We'll see eights. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, we will. But I...
7:37
You know, if you're interested in the Pacers, I mean, ob- obviously realize you're dealing with a hobbled Tyrese Haliburton, but, uh, he goes, I think this line's gonna come back down a little bit too.
7:46
That's the, that's the other sort of headline of the, uh, of the NBA playoffs is the, i- if this happens, if he does not play, let's say, and who knows what that spread gets to, eight, nine, who knows?
7:57
That would be the other head- the other headline where as great as the NBA playoffs, for, for as many unbelievably dramatic comebacks as we've had, also that injuries stain the playoffs. It's every single year.
8:08
It's every single year. You gotta be, you've gotta be one of the best and the healthiest team. Yep. And that's who wins the NBA finals every single year. Like, that is, uh, uh, that's, that's just what happens.
8:18
It's, um, yeah, I, I don't know. It would be a shame, though.
8:20
It would be a shame for how incredible this Pacers run has been and how incredible especially Tyrese Haliburton has been if, if this, they don't even get a shot with him.
8:29
I, I totally believe if this was, uh, I think there were some reports of this going around yester- if this was regular season or first round of the playoffs, I don't think we're seeing Tyrese Haliburton at all. Oh, no.
8:36
There's no way he's playing. But finals on the line, I, I, I as- I'm guessing he does try to go out there tomorrow. And, and you know what else an MRI doesn't reveal, by the way? That your Achilles might pop. Right.
8:46
[laughs] So that, that's- Right... I mean, that's the other consideration they have to have. Yeah. It's like the worst possible thing that could happen here is they lose this and something terrible happens.
8:53
'Cause Ach- Achilles' actually a real, I mean, that is, it's the calf strain, but it is the s- continuous straining on the calf that can then lead to that, right?
9:01
I mean, that's the ca- that's how the KD thing seemed- Yeah... to have happened, right? Okay. It's a very strange injury, but you never know. Anyway, that's where that stands.
9:07
So Tyrese's, uh, his availability pretty much in doubt for, for an extra 24 hours. By the way, I w- I meant to squeeze this in, and maybe I, uh, maybe I already missed my chance here. I, no, still go.
9:19
I, so I returned to tennis on the overnight. Uh, the grass court season has begun for me. I, I didn't sit out the entire grass court season, but I sat out a week and a half, so I'm proud of myself.
9:29
It's about 40% of the grass court season. Um, played two dogs. We split 'em. R- Roberto Bautista Agut hit this morning as a plus 177 dog. Uh, lost on Zizou Bergs. So we're up. I only have one more play.
9:44
It's about to start if people wanna play this, and your number's a lot better than the one that I got last night. I'm on Francesca Jones. I got her at plus 189 against Linda Noskova. Uh, this is at the, in Nottingham.
9:57
Oh, you love Nottingham. Uh, Francesca Jones plus 189 is where I got her. She's about plus 223 right now, so if you want a little, uh, action during the show, there you go.
10:05
I'm just, uh, just keeping it honest, whenever we talk about soccer, tennis, any time I hear Nottingham, like, I, I just think Robin Hood. Like- Oh, I thought you were gonna say Hugh Grant or something like that.
10:14
Does that make me a terrible, like, just American? No. No. I, I just think Robin Hood immediately. I don't know. Uh, the other thing- Or Sheriff Forest...
10:20
uh, other things, because I wanna get to the Cy Young stuff, but the other thing's, uh, obviously college baseball yesterday. The situation has cleared up tremendously.
10:27
We had, uh, we had a couple games yesterday where, well, we had two and a half games yesterday, right? Because LSU closed out UCLA in the rain-suspended game, so LSU moved along.
10:39
That knocked out, uh, that knocked out, or didn't knock out, but put UCLA then in the loser bracket, if you will, with Arkansas. Arkansas, which has just come off that amazing pitching performance from- Oh, God...
10:49
from Gage. Um, a, a hit by pitch shy of a perfect game, he ends up with a no-hitter, uh, did Arkansas against, uh, Murray State. So- And 18 strikeouts? Is that what it was? Was, I think it was 19, wasn't it? Geez.
11:02
It was something up there, yeah. I might be wrong. Might be wrong. Um, but then Arkansas played UCLA, so UCLA had to play a second game yesterday, um, and they lose to Arkansas.
11:11
And so now LSU, which beat UCLA, LSU and Arkansas, the two SEC teams that came to Omaha, LSU won the first game. They play again today. If LSU beats Arkansas, Arkansas's done.
11:25
If Arkansas beats LSU, they gotta play a third game to determine who gets to the best of three finals. And that's bracket two.
11:31
Bracket one, Louisville beat Oregon State yesterday, so Coastal Carolina's taking on Louisville today.
11:37
If Coastal wins that game, Louisville is out, but if Louisville wins, Coastal and Louisville have to play a rubber match game as well. Both of those would be tomorrow, right? Yeah.
11:47
The rubber, the rubber match games, if necessary, tomorrow. Okay. Yeah. Yeah, I was trying to line that up for, uh, when we'd be talking college baseball this week.
11:54
Um, the only other thing of, of note besides, uh, baseball, which we'll get to here momentarily, um, did you see the Caitlin Clark thing yesterday? Yeah. [laughs] I did.
12:03
Poke, poked in the eye, shoved by, uh, Jaycee, forgetting her last name now, and then, uh, shoved by Marina Mabrey to the ground. They don't throw out Mabrey, and so later in the game, Sophie Cunningham
12:19
decides to play, "I'm gonna, I'm gonna protect my girl," and she throws Mabrey down to the court, and the announcers correctly- All over it, yeah...
12:26
Debbie Antinelli all over it, just saying, "I blame this squarely on the referees." Yep. On the officials. That was- Gotta set the tone early, right? Good job, WNBA. Some more good press for you. We'll come back.
12:38
Cy Young, Tom Tango, AL Cy, NL Cy. Formula, tried and true, next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:56
So Kelly, when you upset me later, if you upset me, I'm gonna poke you in the eye like they do in the WNBA. Oh, sorry, are we on air? Wanna bet smarter? Start with smarter insights.
13:03
Right now you can check out Greg Peterson's MLB best bets, Zach Cohen's NBA game six analysis and best bets, and Wes Reynolds', the Travelers Championship picks.
13:11
And later today you can check out NBA game six player props, Zachary Cohen's tennis best bets, and JVT's MLB picks and props. Right now you can sign up for as little as $9.99 to get full access to all VSiN articles.
13:22
Just head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today. I say that only 'cause didn't, like, Dijonai Carrington, didn't she poke or scratch Caitlin in the eye last year? Oh, I can't keep up with all of these.
13:34
Oh, it's a big, big in poking of the eye history. Ah, we're, we're just saying off the air.
13:37
Like, the, the, I'm sure it's, it's not as covered as in much detail, but, like, th- this is why the refs, it, it is so important for you to keep the game under control. Yes, 100%.
13:47
Because of course you're gonna be pissed off when Caitlin Clark comes in her second year and she's already better than 99.8% of the players in the league. Like- Why, of course... she's gonna get fouled hard.
13:57
Well, she's gonna get fouled hard, but she's not gonna get poked in the eye. No, she's not, but, like, these people get embarrassed and stuff gets outta control. People are the worst.
14:05
Do you see, but did you see that game- Where's Wishnebs? What are the-... over the weekend when she just went logo three- Yeah... three times in a row? It was like, "Screw you guys, I'm better.
14:10
Screw you guys, I'm better. Screw you guys, I'm better." Yeah, but Brianna Stewart handled it correctly, just laughing about it and stuff, right? Okay. Yeah, 'cause she's also really good. [laughs] Well, okay.
14:17
And they get... W- what's the Wishnebs line? Human beings, worst invention ever. [laughs] Uh, all right. Tom Tango's Cy Young formula. Tom, Tom Tango, for those who don't know, uh, is a sabermetrician.
14:28
And what we love about this is we hear from Tom himself after we do this every year. Mm-hmm. Uh, Tom is a sabermetrician.
14:33
Um, for those who nerd out on baseball, among other things, he invented fielding independent pitching, FIP, which I used so many years ago, uh, when, when betting on baseball. Now everybody uses it, uh, in handicapping.
14:47
And he also invented the run expectancy matrix.
14:50
So again, Kelly, runners on first and third, bottom of the sixth, you know, two outs, whatever it is, a run expectancy matrix, especially doesn't have to anything to do with the inning.
14:57
But anyway, what you should expect run-wise based on situation. Hmm. Um, so he's a, he's just a tremendous, tremendous guy when it comes to, um, sabermetrics in baseball.
15:08
And one of the other things that he sort of identified was how we can sort of predict what voters like when it comes to the Cy Young, what they tend to emphasize when voting on Cy Young.
15:24
So let's not, you know, 'cause every year we get a little, we get, we get one or two people are like, "You don't understand what this does." Let's be clear again, okay? 'Cause most people get this.
15:33
Tango is not telling you who he believes should be Cy Young. He's not telling you who you should bet on to be Cy Young, or who should be the Cy Young, or anything like that.
15:42
He is simply telling you, this is a formula that has matched what voters ended up voting for for the eventual Cy Young winner, what he has at the end of the baseball season, right?
15:53
So right now we're obviously not quite to the halfway mark, but it is a worthwhile exercise to look at what he has the rankings as right now, um, just to see where your bets might fall, you know, juxtaposed against what odds are currently.
16:07
So let me just give you his street cred again on this. The last 19 years, so that's 38 Cy Youngs, Kelly, American League and National League. He has nailed 32 of those 38. 32 of those 38. What's that?
16:20
Boop, boop, boop, boop, boop. Was that 84%? 84.21% is what it... Okay. And if you look at this, this, this graphic right here, who's that dude on the left by the way?
16:29
If you look at this graphic, the only times that he has missed out on this, the six times in the last 19 years, so six out of 38, five of those six he had as his second place Cy Young, [laughs] eventual award winner.
16:45
The only time he, he finished anything more, you know, less than first or second, Corbin Burns in 2021, he had as the fourth choice in the National League. Corbin Burns ends up winning the, uh, NL Cy Young.
16:56
He had him as fourth. Gosh, I remember us discussing that. Doesn't feel that long ago. [laughs] Um, here's his very simple formula.
17:04
Innings pitch divided by two, minus earned runs, plus strikeouts divided by 10, plus wins. Now, you don't have to commit that to memory, right? I'm sorry I didn't warn you there was gonna be math on the show today.
17:17
Uh, a little algebra. But that's all you n- that's all.
17:21
So when I, two years ago, let me just point at myself, prattled on about all of Spencer Strider's amazing advanced stats and how he should win the Cy Young, now, that was before he had a few blowups that, you know, completely, um, ejected him from that, from that discussion.
17:36
Um, it doesn't really matter. All the things that we tend to, as baseball hardos, K percentage and, uh, fielding independent, Tom's, Tom's sabermetric, none of that stuff really seems to matter to voters.
17:50
Proof is in the pudding. So what does that mean for this year at this moment? Again, these 32 out of 38 is what he has at the end of the season.
17:59
But we can shine some light on where value is now by looking at what his points currently stack up as vis-a-vis the betting market. So let's go to the American League, shall we? Let's do the American League first.
18:12
Right now- In the betting market, Tarek Skubal, minus 260. Tarek Skubal of the Detroit Tigers is minus 260 to win the American League Cy Young.
18:22
Um, after that, you have Hunter Brown of the Astros at eight to one, Max Freed of the Yankees at nine to one, Garrett Crochet of the Red Sox 10 to one.
18:30
Then you have Jacob deGrom at 13 to one, followed by the Royals' Kris Bubic at 40 to one. According to Tango's current rankings, though,
18:40
Freed with 45.5 points, don't worry about the point system, but it's based on that formula I just gave. Freed is first at 45.5.
18:48
Hunter Brown is second, followed by Skubal just outside of Brown in third, Crochet fourth, Bubic fifth. So
18:57
yes, the, you know, besides deGrom, the five or six top guy right there, not quite the s- same five guys at the top of Tango's at the top of the betting market in the AL, 'cause, 'cause deGrom pollutes it a little bit.
19:11
But the value at this moment is on Max Freed or Hunter Brown, according to these numbers. And now here's where your handicapping comes in. Do you feel the Yankees end up winning the division?
19:23
Do you think they, you know, do you think Freed continues to be a great pitcher the rest of the year? Do you think that the Tigers slough off? Do you think Skubal's performance slub- sloughs off, right?
19:33
So again, what we're pointing out here is, or I'm not telling you who to bet, but what I'm saying is based on this formula and the fact that he has nailed 84.2% of the eventual winners at the end of the season.
19:45
Remember, these points will change between now and s- you know, the end of September, the end of the regular season. But right now, that's where the value appears to be. And by the way, Crochet has a little bit too.
19:57
Mm-hmm. Yeah, I was just gonna ask you, eh, but, uh, the, you talk about Freed and how the Yankees finish. Got the Astros on top of their, their division right now.
20:06
Uh, Bo- Boston, are they, is, is the, is the season too much of a concern right now to hop in on Crochet? Yeah, look, Cy Young doesn't necessarily correlate.
20:15
Like, you could-- Listen, there's the, the, uh, Major League Baseball is riddled with history of pitchers who are great on terrible teams that end up getting the Cy Young. So it's not necessarily an eliminator.
20:26
Most famous, perhaps Steve Carlton winning 27 games for, what was it? The 60-win Phillies in the late '60s, I believe that was. Don't hold me to the year. Um,
20:37
so it's not a, it's not a, uh, it doesn't completely take you out of the, uh, the mix. But all I'm saying here is, at this point,
20:45
Freed and Brown look pretty juicy in the American League, even though, like Skubal for in-- By the way, the three guys at the bottom there, Skubal, Crochet, and Bubic, all in action today.
20:54
And listen, Skubal could just destroy the Bucs. Skubal could respond to this whole thing by throwing a no-no today for all we know. Mm-hmm. Right? And that will obviously change things too.
21:03
But right now, you get the idea. Freed and Brown show some betting value. This will only matter at the end of the year. National League, let's go through the exercise. Paul Skenes is minus 360.
21:13
National League's a little more straightforward. Tango also has Skenes way ahead. Skenes is at 42.7, uh, in, in, uh, Tango's point system. He's minus 360 in the betting market.
21:25
After that in the National League, it's not quite as, uh, clean as it was in the American League in terms of betting market versus Tango. Because after that in the National League, it drops to 11 to one, Zach Wheeler.
21:37
Then you've got, uh, Yamamoto, Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Dodgers at 15 to one, Chris Sale's 17 to one, Logan Webb of the Giants 20 to one, Christopher Sanchez of the, uh, of the Phillies, and Mackenzie Gore of the Nationals, both at 35 to one, and then Robbie Ray of the Giants at 40 to one, not to mention, uh, Kodai Senga of the Mets at 60 to one.
21:57
Well, according to Tango, after Skenes, it's Senga at 60 to one in the betting market second, Logan Webb third, Zach Wheeler fourth, and then the Giants' Robbie Ray fifth.
22:10
So two Giants, by the way, in the, in the top five.
22:13
But the point being that Skenes, according to Tango even now, looks like, you know, he's gonna-- He would have to do terrible things between now and, uh, the end of the season for this to change. Long way to go, right?
22:27
Still.
22:28
But Skenes, way more congruent with the betting market per Tango than what we see in the American League, where legitimately, I think right now, for me as I look at this, that would induce a bet for me on Freed or Brown.
22:42
Yeah, I get-- My, my follow-up right away, and I, I mean, I guess this is a great layout 'cause I, I think it does show that Skenes is may, is maybe worth that number.
22:49
But I, I mean, we've been asking this about some of the MVP markets all season, right? It's just, it, it s- still feels a little, little early to be killed for some of these, this big a heavy favorites. Well, yes.
23:00
I mean, look, both Judge and Shohei are completely justified at their numbers and, and I believe. But yes, I, I mean, God forbid there's an injury to either and then it sort of opens up obviously to, to others.
23:12
We, we don't wish that to happen. But Cy Young is way more interesting to talk about right now. Right. In this, in this, a very clear, clean MVP discussion.
23:22
I will say this, Mark Borchardt did have that note yesterday, though. You know, let's say Shohei doesn't turn out to have a good pitching season. It's El Marte at 80 to one on the, in the National League.
23:33
Borchardt was talking to him yesterday. He just doesn't have the at-bats to show up in leaderboards right now, but it's a heck of a price for a guy like that. Coming back with Will Hill next.
23:43
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Unmatched transparency with records updated daily. That's the Sharp Plays. Check 'em out.
23:55
AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, and alerts directly from the pros. We do invite you to check 'em out at sharpplays.com. Gil Alexander, we get tweets at Beating the Book.
24:04
Always appreciate the, uh, feedback. Jesse Welch: "Gil, I'd love your thoughts. The live June most wins market, I feel that the Astros are a false favorite.
24:12
Yes, they have 11 wins now, but they have a tougher schedule than most, only have 10 games left, and DK is a dead heat market, so I think there's value here."
24:18
I think they have a little more than 10 games left, but as I have said, uh, numerous times on this, and me with a, a Tigers pre-flop ticket, I do think the Diamondbacks, despite their loss to the Blue Jays yesterday, I think they're the team in the driver's seat with 10 wins.
24:31
Just because again, 10 out, nine out of their last 10 against the Rockies, the Marlins, and the White Sox. Uh, let's see here. This is from, uh, oh, Brad Sports, our discussion yesterday.
24:41
He said, "Hey, Gil and Kelly, text, uh, Tuesday includes sports movies causing crying. Here's one for sure. Something for Joey, the John Cappelletti story. If you haven't seen it, I cannot recommend it enough.
24:50
Take care, and lots of love from Canada." Um, thank you. By the way, here are the June MLB most wins update. Thank you for that, Brad Sports. I've heard much about that movie. I've never seen it.
24:59
I've never seen it either, yeah. Astros 11 and four after yesterday. Rays, O's, and Sox 10 and five each, and then you have a scrum at nine wins.
25:08
There are our Tigers right there at the bottom in 11th place, nine and six. Yeah. Let's go, Tigres. Let's go. Pick it up. Los Tigres.
25:15
Although I guess it could be worse when I see a minus one next to the run differential.
25:19
Well, te- I mean, they got two more games against the Buccos, and Scuba's going today, so they, they don't, you know, again, they've got to win those two, and then, then it gets a little more difficult.
25:27
Uh, this is from, oh, Norman Vegas. Did we, we increase sports betting taxes in, uh, Louisiana? Is that what we did also? Oh, boy. That's for another day. Um,
25:37
J-Rod, "Day late, but guessing a lot of us '80s kids had seen Gleaming The Cube countless times." Somehow we got into a discussion of, uh, obscure sports movies as well yesterday.
25:46
Derby Dayday, uh, "Big props to Samobom, Mike Somich for calling his shot on the Conn Smythe before the series. Sam Bennett 38 to one. #PaysToListen."
25:57
Yeah, what if Bennett had 10 goals going into the, uh, the Stanley Cup Final, and he got five to get to 15. Good on Samobom.
26:05
Uh, by the way, also, uh, also a shout-out to, uh, Jonathan Davis from, let's see, 'cause Jonathan Davis also had apparently, uh, some Sam Bennett. Yeah, thanks to, uh, Sam Bennett from Uncle Bush.
26:17
He says, "I nailed a 30 to one on Sam Bennett. The only issue is I wish there was a podcast that expresses regret in regards to the amount wagered, and in retrospect should have staked a larger amount."
26:26
[laughs] If only we had the host of that podcast, and we do right now. It's Will Hill, everybody, the, uh, host of the Shoulda Bet More podcast, available where you get all your podcasts.
26:35
Of course, part of the Bear Bets empire over there, Bear Bets podcast with Chris Olekhnik at Fox Sports, and the Megapod, courtesy of the Progressive guest line. How you doing, Will? Gilley, what's going on?
26:45
Very, uh, what, what do you say? The best listeners in the game. Very cleverly worded tweet. I, I appreciated that one. Witty listeners left and right. Yes. Uh, did you, uh, you didn't have Conn Smythe, did you?
26:54
Anything there? No, I was listening, and I, I listen all the time. I heard the Somich one.
27:00
I, you know, I, man, I, I think I was listening to you maybe a few days before that, and you were making the point or somebody wrote in and made the point that if Florida wins, it's wide open.
27:09
So I took a shot on Verhaeghe. And look, I know, I know Bear, like March on 15, you know, you just want, you don't want to get in this mode, 'cause I took a couple guys before the playoffs.
27:17
So you don't want to get in this mode where you just, you got everybody in your bo- betting five, six, seven different guys. Yeah. Sort of like a, you know, a golf outright. So I didn't take Bennett.
27:25
Uh, yes, there's some regret.
27:26
I, if you, if you rewind to, uh, you know, when you were reading the tweet about Somich and giving him credit, you could probably see me au- like visibly wince a little bit, because- [laughs]...
27:35
I remember where I was in my car when he said it, 30 to one. I remember your reaction saying, "Hey, 30 to one, you're gonna get some people interested in that."
27:41
I thought about it, and of course, looking back, it's always easy to, uh, you know, past post yourself and say, "Man, why, why didn't I bet it? And if you bet it, why didn't I bet more?" But, uh, I did not bet it.
27:49
Long-winded, long-winded answer of saying, "No, I'm an idiot." Will, I've imagined me. I'm a bigger idiot. The words actually came out of my mouth, and I didn't bet it, you know? So- Yeah... a dry sidle. Um, okay.
28:00
To the NBA Finals, game six. Um, yeah, for-forg- I'll even ask if you're doing anything, but, but generally speaking, can anyone do anything with this at this point for game six with Haliburton's injury?
28:13
It would be Pacers or nothing for me. I just, I, I'm so spooked by the Pacers.
28:17
Uh, I've compared them to the, uh, the Heat from a couple years ago, and I thought they were gonna do it again last night when they cut it, or, or Monday when they cut it from 18 to two. I said, "Oh, my goodness.
28:24
Here we go again with this team." I just have a hard time laying six and a half, and, and I saw some sevens pop up yesterday I think very briefly.
28:31
I just have a hard time laying that many points against that team in that building. Um, that being said, uh, you know, I, I think OKC probably wins the title, uh, tomorrow night.
28:41
I, I thought, you know, Friday night, game four, the Pacers being up 10 in the fourth quarter, that last 3:20 when they can only score a point, and I'm still trying to figure out how they didn't cover that spread.
28:50
I, I thought that was really the series. I thought they blew their opportunity then to, uh, to win it, 'cause they, I thought, had to be up three games to one.
28:57
And, uh, you just, y- you, when you're the lesser team, you can't blow a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter at home. You can't let a game like that get away. So I think OKC wins this. It'd be fun to have a game seven.
29:06
I just, I'm skeptical that we get that. That being said, six and a half is a little too rich for me. OKC's not played well on the road. They haven't shot well on the road.
29:15
Remember the last time i- in that game four, they played on the road and miraculously covered 3 of 17 from three. So their offense has been a mess.
29:21
That old saying, the old cliché of role players play better at home, they play worse on the road, it's, it's a cliché for a reason. It's true.
29:28
The Wiggins, the, uh, the Isaiah Joe, I know Joe's fallen out of the rotation, but the, the Wiggins of the world, uh, I mean, he's made, he's had games at home where he makes four threes, five threes, and he's basically a no-show.
29:37
He does- doesn't do anything on the road, and that just, uh, exemplifies it, where these, uh, these fringe guys just aren't, aren't the same on the road. So if I had to take it or lay it, I would take it.
29:46
Not sure I'm going to.
29:47
I, I've noticed in the NBA in doing these live shows a lot, man, boy, he, he just, okay, you can get six and a half before the game, but at some point you're probably gonna be able to get eight and a half, nine and a half, 10 and a half.
29:57
I mean, there's just such wild swings in these numbers- Mm-hmm... where you probably can get a better number live. But again, if I had to take it or lay it, I would take it here with the Pacers.
30:04
Pre-flop, uh, total down to 222 and a half, lowest we've seen, uh, uh, obviously in this, uh, in this finals. By the way, you just mentioned you do live betting shows.
30:12
Tell us all the betting shows you do here at VSiN, Will. VSiN Prime Time, Thursdays and Fridays, 7:00 to 11:00 Eastern. Then, uh, on the weekends, tw- uh, what, what time is it?
30:22
4:00 to 7:00 Eastern, Saturdays and Sundays. So 11:00, uh, 7:00 to 11:00 Thursday and Friday, and then 4:00 to 7:00 Friday and Saturday, all Eastern.
30:29
By the way, this has nothing to do with betting, but I'm always interested in this. So I don't have the game five NBA finals ratings, but I do have the Friday night game four. Uh- Bad?...
30:40
9.41 million people, which is the most watched game of this series, however, still the lowest rated Game Four in the history of the NBA finals. Wow. [laughs] That's brutal.
30:51
I was more interested- Outside of, outside of the COVID year. I was more interested comparing it to this series, though, 'cause we, we've just- Best of this series... I, I go crazy about Friday night games.
30:57
I think it's so dumb. Just by point of comparison, uh, Caitlin Clark's return on Saturday, where she dropped the 32 points, 2.2 million. Wow. So, like, relatively not that far behind to an NBA finals Game Four.
31:11
Uh- They, they can thank their broadcast partner. ESPN does a horrible job promoting these games- [laughs]... discussing it. It's all, I mean, we, we joke about it with- in the group chat.
31:19
Every time it's, it's halftime, you say it all the time, "Whoever's losing needs to step up. Whoever winning is doing great." Oh, it's so bad.
31:24
It's so mindless, and that, that has a trickle-down effect, where it just, the games aren't produced well, they're not marketed well. OKC, that's a great story to tell. They came from nothing.
31:33
They, uh, you know, were down and out, losing Durant and Westbrook and then, and, and, uh, Harden, and they g- got everything back, and they made all these great moves. I mean, they're a good story.
31:41
Haliburton's a good story. SGA, there, there's a lot of good stories. They just, man, they, they try to appeal to the lowest common denominator. Their coverage is really about as bad as it's ever been.
31:48
Well- All right, Will, they started announcing the starting lineups, okay? That, that, that- That's better. It's a start. It's a start... they did. That was all going around the other day, and I'm, like, texting JVT.
31:56
I'm like, "Wait, were people really, like, freaking out about this?" First time since- I had no idea it was a thing... first time since 2013 they've done that, apparently. Yeah, I, I didn't lose any sleep over it.
32:03
What was the Perk line at halftime the other night when they, when Haliburton got hurt and, uh [laughs]- He's scared or something... yeah. [laughs] Then Perk goes, "He's scared." [laughs] It's like, oh, God. Always.
32:13
This, this has gone from bad to worse. All right. Full day. Major league baseball. Let's go. What do you got? I think the Mets are too high. Uh, plus 155 or so. Again, shop around.
32:24
But Sale against Blackburn, uh, obviously a big pitching advantage for the, uh, for the Braves. But in, in, if you're the Mets, you don't wanna let the Braves off the mat. That, that was a bad loss last night.
32:32
It's been a house of horrors for them. You don't wanna let the Braves back in this. But B- Blackburn, uh, two starts. His ERA's close to seven, but his expected ERA is lower, closer to three, in the low threes.
32:41
And his two starts are against the Dodgers and the At Coors, uh, At Coors Field, so his numbers, I think, uh, are, are a little bit underrated here. I think he'll pitch okay. He had a bad relief outing.
32:51
But plus 153 plus a run and a half, those are both plays for me. And, uh, I know we're running up against it a little bit. I did see, and this may or may not interest you, Gilly.
33:00
The Giants are 15 to one at FanDuel to win the West. Mm-hmm. They're only three back in the loss. I, I, you could tell me the Dodgers are the favorite. You could tell me the Dodgers are the best team. All of that's true.
33:09
The Dodgers are still vulnerable. They are, they are not here i- just impervious to, uh, losing this division. Their starting pitching day to day is really shaky. Every time you look up, they're losing a pitcher.
33:19
I think Devers, and I'm still shocked by that trade, that's a perfect fit. They need a left-handed bat. They need a left-handed presence. Uh, you get Chapman back here.
33:28
15 to one to win the West, 40 to one to be the one seed. I don't think those are bad bets. I really don't.
33:33
I, I said the other day that if I was forced to bet one of the Giants ones, it would actually be to win the NL, 'cause I, I, over 162 games, it is just really hard to beat a team like the Dodgers with all that talent.
33:45
Um, but I'm with you, man. I, I love the, I love the spirit on it. Yesterday, Devers in his, uh, Giants debut, RBI double.
33:51
A single as well in the Giants' 3-2 loss to the Guardians because they made a mess of the base paths, uh, with runners on first- Ugh... and second and nobody out in the, in the eighth yesterday. Brutal. Brutal.
34:03
All those uniforms, though. You gotta clean up those u- the Giants have classic uniforms. What were... Those, those were some c- some weird uniforms they had on yesterday. They have so many uniforms.
34:10
They, they play on o- with orange jerseys on Friday nights. Yes. Yeah. I kinda like that, I kinda like that black one, though. I'm gonna go with it. Devers looked great in the uniform. That's all I care about yesterday.
34:20
Uh, Will, thank you. @NotTheWillHill, by the way, on Twitter. Shoulda Bet More is the actual name of his podcast, even though he wanted to name it something else. Thank you, Will. All right. See you guys. Thanks.
34:31
Will Hill. Always, always ubiquitous. You can see him everywhere, all the time on the network. Coming back.
34:39
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Take your betting to the whole another level with First Bet. Sign up now at firstbet.com. That's the number one S-T bet.com.
34:55
Use promo code VSiN200 to score 20% rebate on all your wagers for the first 60 days, up to $200. Don't miss out. Bet smarter today at firstbet.com. Uh, we got tweets at Betting The Book.
35:08
Always appreciate the, uh, feedback from the best listeners in the game. Best listeners in the game, Kelly. I will not be, uh, I will not be debated on this subject 'cause I will win. Uh, let's see.
35:19
Uh, Dell Mind the Gap Radio, "Bridge jumper beware. Yankees minus 219 with the Arboro." So he does not like the Yankees today.
35:25
Master of Puppets, talking about the WNBA, says, "If the WNBA is not careful, it's gonna have a Rudy T incident real soon. They should and need to protect their players, and even more so, the league's best players."
35:36
Mm-hmm.
35:36
I believe what he is referring to, for those of us of a certain age, um, while this generation focuses on things like the Malice in the Palace, there was an awful fight in the NBA when Rudy Tomjanovich played for the, the Rockets.
35:49
It was at Kermit Washington, I believe, of the Lakers, punched him during a game, and Rudy T was just messed up for the longest time. So that's what he's, uh, that's what he's referring to right there.
35:59
By the way, Chris Heath, [laughs] r- he, all he did was send an image of Tom Tango's formula written, handwritten on a whiteboard. [laughs] I just love this. Beautiful mind, Chris Heath. Well done.
36:10
Uh, Eric Pinnell has a different take on it. He says, "I love the physical play in the WNBA. Everybody's talking about it no matter what side you're on. It's getting eyes on the games." And he says, hashtag HTTR.
36:20
[laughs] So he's all forgiven for that take. No, I mean, you might be right. Maybe, maybe that is the story. Uh, Eric, you're right. I wouldn't...
36:27
Would we be talking about the WNBA otherwise, besides Caitlin scoring points? No.
36:32
But, you know, if Caitlin Clark goes down with an injury and misses a year, then nobody's gonna be talking about the, uh, WNBA for a year Correct. Correct. That was, is exactly right. Is exactly right.
36:42
Well said, Kelay Bidelon. Chris Heath also adds, "Senga not even listed for Cy Young at, at BetOnline."
36:47
Well, the reason for that is, is because Senga, and I probably should've noted this, uh, hurt his hamstring, so he's out. So they're gonna reevaluate in a couple weeks, I think in, like, 10 days from now. So that's why.
36:58
There's, there's no rush to bet Senga at 60 to 1 if that was what you, uh, you were thinking, uh, listening to that segment, the Tango Cy Young segment. Mr. Rothstein, "I just got down on Freed Cy Young.
37:08
Thanks so much for the info. Who do I see for a refund when it loses?" [laughs] Kelly. Kelly's the guy you see for a refund. Yeah, that's right. That's me. Yeah. That's Kelly. Uh, this is from, uh, Off in the Dark.
37:17
"Yes, I did catch you using Drews ejected this morning." I sure did. Guilty as charged. [laughs] That rang a bell in my ear, too. Jack and a Prius 2.0, it's a good word to stick in there. Works.
37:26
Jack and a Prius 2.0, yo, cashing tickets today. "Panthers play perfect hockey and will keep winning Cups unless the roster gets shaken up. Zito best GM in hockey. He got the Panthers at 10 to 1." Nice.
37:37
Bet, when'd you bet this? October 7th of last year, he bet it. 10 to 1, Panthers.
37:43
Uh, Matt, Matt F, Sports Bettor X, he says, "Jay Cohn," and this is, thank you for doing this, because Kelly and I will often forget how many of our guests actually say this on air.
37:53
He said, "Jay Cohn also recommended Bennett on May 21st. He was 75 to 1 at that point." Okay. Yeah, the, uh, I'm actually glad that got tweeted in, 'cause I, I didn't wanna, I di- I didn't wanna say anything.
38:04
I would never say anything negative about Mike Somich, just I, I didn't remember his, but I remember Jay Cohn saying it.
38:10
[laughs] Uh, New Y- New Jersey, New York GV, I'm gonna Ron Burgundy through these, says, uh, "Regarding your Giants to win the NL lean, as has been said before, if you think a team is going to make the postseason and the pennant odds are north of double digit, it doesn't hurt to play pennant odds at this point, because the wildcard format, uh, makes this thing a relative crapshoot."
38:28
GV, that is my entire point with that. Y- 162-game schedule, 90 left, let's say r- roughly. As much as I, I like the Giants team and, and I like the Devers acquisition,
38:39
the, the Dodgers are built for the long haul, and you're exactly right.
38:42
The reason that I'm not betting that, but I would bet the pennant is because with Logan Webb, with Robbie Ray, with Birdsong at the top of that rotation, if you get into the playoffs, regardless, as a wildcard, that to me is a better bet than trying to beat the Dodgers over 162.
39:00
Uh, Cheap Prop Bets, "The ESPN pregame has become more about Stephen A. and not the game itself. Impossible to watch." Um, every [laughs] that's what Will was referring to, and I keep saying it in the group chat.
39:10
Every time a team is down in any NBA game for the ESPN, here's my imitation of the entire ESPN halftime show. Malika throws it over to Stephen A. Team that is down, fill in name, team that is down, gotta step it up.
39:25
Thank you, that's my imitation. Uh, PGHPLS, "Cash Bennett paired with Scheffler at the Memorial for a cool 94 to 1 payout." Dang. "Thanks, a numbers game." You're most welcome. There you go.
39:39
Speaking of golf, ladies and gentlemen, it's time to go country clubbing. Let's do it. [upbeat country music] Ben Wilson and his family.
39:55
Matt Brown said that one day on the show now, that's all I think about. Ben Wilson's family. Ben Wilson's family. [laughs] It's such a great- Outside Dory Pine, partying it up... such an inside VSiN joke.
40:06
[laughs] Certainly is. Look, it's Ben Wilson's family. I don't really know that Matt was all that impressed by the Open at all, except for that party he sees Don. That was the biggest part. Oh, wait, hold on.
40:15
Gi- can we give Stormy a shout-out before you launch into your golf too? 'Cause as long as we're talking about Sam Bennett. For sure.
40:19
William Wager says, "I believe the first time I heard Bennett to win Consmith was from Stormy. Got him at 39 to 1." Beautiful. All right. Well done by Money Moves. All right. What we got, uh, what we got golf-wise here?
40:30
Moving money, moving money. What do we got, Gil? We've got the final signature event of the year. [snorts] Crossing- Oh, so it must be, uh, November, right? [laughs] Right. It must be the end of the golf season. Yeah.
40:41
No, not at all. Actually, I had very entertaining long shots yesterday, uh, for those interested in golf. There were, uh, there were some disagreements about Oakmont, uh, whether we liked it, whether we hated it.
40:51
I was very down the middle, uh, as I usually am. I loved your take, which is, "I am so," [laughs] it's Kelly Bidlin on text during the weekend, "I am so sick of, of old Oakmont stories."
41:02
[laughs] It's like that's what was bothering you. I forgot about that. I'm like, every time, like, they showed a highlight for, like, Johnny Miller at Oakmont, I'm like, "Look, Kelly, Johnny Miller."
41:10
I just think there was probably a couple times this weekend where I'm like, "All right," like, "I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna leave for, like, 15 minutes to run an errand," but, like, Sirius does such a great job with their golf coverage.
41:20
Oh, yeah. And, like, I jump in and I'm like, "Wait, what, what? Why am I in the middle of a 1912 Oakmont story? Like, get back to live coverage. What are we doing?"
41:29
Uh, anyways, okay, so final signature event of the year. We are in Connecticut. I'm sure Will Hill and Chris Falica will be in attendance this weekend. I know they have in the past. Sure.
41:38
Uh, TPC River Highlands, we're looking at for the course. This is a tough short course, seventh s- uh, shortest course on the PGA Tour. Um, sorry, third shortest, seventh toughest, uh, when you miss the fairway.
41:51
This is another fairway finder course we're looking at this week, Gil. 30 ya- uh, yard wide fairways. They're gonna be tight. This is a short course.
41:58
Length off the tee not much of a factor, uh, this week, and you gotta keep it in the fairways.
42:03
Four plus inch rough is what these guys will be dealing with, much, uh, I don't wanna say much like last week, but sort of like last week. Keep it in the fairway or else you're gonna be in a lotta trouble.
42:13
We do have some water back involved this week. This is a heavy wedge course.
42:17
You got 70% of your approach shots, uh, from the past five years have come within 175 yards, so you have a lotta short iron play and wedge play being the differences, uh, this week.
42:28
Hitting into f- uh, into small greens, um, they're around the green, and scrambling will be important this week as well if you're doing handicapping at home.
42:36
This is the second toughest course to gain strokes on around the green. They've got some shaved runoffs areas, tighter chips that you're gonna have to make this week over at TPC River Highlands. Always a great event.
42:47
Um, not one that I've done incredibly well betting in the past, but, huh, you know, things can't be, uh- Uh, as bad as they were last week Is, is there a tournament or tournament that y- that you historically do great on or poorly on?
42:58
There, there are, there are a couple that I've done better on, but that I have absolutely no explanation for. Okay.
43:05
Like, it's not like there's something where I'm like, [laughs] "Well, eh, I know this that nobody else does," right? Yeah. Like, it's just, it- it's just randomly you've hit a few outright.
43:13
So, um, look, Scottie Scheffler, this l- uh, this is a signature event. Basically all the, all the big names are playing this week that you would expect to be playing. Scheffler three to one, he is the favorite.
43:23
Uh, don- I don't mind if you wanna go single bullet on Scottie Scheffler this week. I don't think it's a bad approach, uh, to this event. Rory McIlroy 12 to 1 over at DraftKings. Xander Schauffele 16 to 1.
43:33
Collin Morikawa 18 to 1. Everybody else 22 to 1 or longer. Uh, as far as me, going back to some of the losers from last week, I thought this was an interesting discussion on Long Shots this week. Gil,
43:45
how, what would you do with golfers who played in the US Open, and how would you approach them? And I didn't necessarily target this.
43:54
I'm kind of just throwing out results from the US Open, 'cause that course is so brutally tough. Yeah. I'm not gonna penalize guys. Um, and I'm not really gonna reward guys for performances there either.
44:03
I do think there's a slight advantage, though, that if you missed the cut at the US Open, that you didn't have to play through all that on the weekend, have to d- get distracted by all that.
44:12
So there's a couple guys I played last week that missed the cut that I'm right back on this week. Number one on that list, Sepp Straka, 35 to 1.
44:19
Uh, look, this is, you're looking for fairway finders, quality approach players, quality guys, um, arou- uh, on the putting green and around the green. Sepp Straka checks all those boxes. So I'm on him 35 to 1.
44:30
Russell Henley I really like this week, 40 to 1. Was longer earlier in the week. I'm mad I missed out on that number. Um, 40 to 1, I know Wes is on him as well. Uh, and then Nick Taylor.
44:40
Nick Taylor, who's had a heck of a three-week stretch here. Uh, T-23 last week, T-13 at the Canadian Open, and fourth at the Memorial. Playing some great golf, and this guy does win from time to time.
44:51
So 100 to 1 in the outright market. And then top 20s, I love Tommy Fleetwood back this week. He was a guy that missed the cut last week. You're getting him plus money in a 71-player event in the top 20 market. Love that.
45:01
Straka, Henley I played top 20s on as well. Like Si Woo Kim this week, top 20 on him, and then a few matchups there. Everything up at VSiN.com.
45:10
You wouldn't be surprised if Scheffler won this, though, despite y- going back to your US Open- No, not, no. Yeah. I almost went single bullet on Scheffler for the outrights. And I, by the way, I didn't know this.
45:17
I knew he had a bad putting performance at the US Open, but I heard Wes Reynolds on with, uh, with Dave and Jensen, By The Books, before this. The single worst putting performance of his entire career. Scheffler? Yeah.
45:27
Yep. [upbeat music]
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