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Jun 19, 2024
A Numbers Game | June 19, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | June 19, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:34
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. You know the drill. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin. Numbers Game, live from Bar Canada here at the D.
0:21
You good? How you doing, man? Good morning to you, sir. I'm good. How are you? How are you? I'm doing very well. Doing very well. Uh, got a packed show here today.
0:28
JVT joins us momentarily, uh, put a bow on the NBA season, and, uh, talk some baseball with him as well. Will Hill, Jason Weingarten with all their plays.
0:37
I'm j- I'm sure Jason Weingarten has a Ro-Shang play this week, I'm guessing. Um, Sia Najad on the Travelers. I'd imagine he might have a Scottie Scheffler spike bet this week. We'll see. Packed field with Travelers.
0:51
Uh, then Paul Carr on Euro Cup 2024 in full swing. Um, so much to get to. We gotta talk, uh, gotta update the College World Series. We gotta bring up Willie Mays.
1:03
Um, we start though, however, with a couple things that were, uh, burning for us yesterday. Obviously, the NHL, let's start there, which is burning for everybody.
1:11
Game five of the Stanley Cup Final, and we have a situation. The Edmonton Oilers will not go away.
1:19
They beat the Panthers five to three, and after being down three-nothing in this best of seven final, they are t- they, uh, got it to three to two and a six-hour flight back to Edmonton, Alberta.
1:30
We gotta get Andy McNeil on the show. He's an Edmonton native. I gotta get his opinion on this, or just the feel of what's going on at Edmonton.
1:38
The Oilers are trying to become-- Now, remember in the NBA, it's O and 156 lifetime in the history of the NBA for teams trying to come back from a three to nothing deficit.
1:48
Only four have forced a game seven, but O and 156 for those trying to pull off that miraculous comeback. In the NHL, uh, Kelly, it has happened four times, uh, in the history of the NHL.
2:00
Still a rarity, not a O for like the NBA.
2:03
Uh, the only time it happened in the finals was in the, uh, in the finals was the 1942 Stanley Cup Finals when the Toronto Maple Leafs, uh, came back to beat the Detroit Red Wings after being down three to nothing.
2:13
Uh, then since then, these are not finals, uh, 1975 Stanley Cup quarters, the Islanders did so against the Pittsburgh Penguins. Uh, some old hats might, uh, remember that.
2:23
They won eight games, uh, that year in the post-season while facing elimination, the Islanders did. Didn't end up winning, uh, the cup. The Flyers did that year. But, uh, the Islanders did it against the Penguins.
2:34
Uh, 2010, folks will remember the Eastern Conference semifinals when the Flyers did it to the Bruins. Uh, also overcame a three to nothing deficit in game seven of that series.
2:44
So not only did they come back from three to nothing, but then when they got to the game seven, they trailed three to nothing and did it.
2:49
And then the 24, the most recent occurrence, the fourth of the four times it's happened, the 2014 Western Conference first round when the LA Kings, uh, did it against the San Jose Sharks.
2:59
LA went on to win the Stanley Cup. They won three game sevens that year.
3:02
They hold the record for the most elimination games won in a single playoff year eight times-- excuse me, pardon me, seven times they did it as a eventual Stanley Cup champion.
3:11
Um, so the Oilers are trying to become the fifth and the second when it comes to the finals. Connor McDavid, two goals, two assists last night.
3:20
For the second consecutive night, the Oilers started things with a short-handed goal.
3:25
Uh, they're the, uh, they're only the fourth team in the last 30 Stanley Cup Finals to actually have multiple short-handed goals in the course of a finals. And now we have this unbelievable situation.
3:35
Not only are they chasing that history, but Conn Smythe becomes this chase of history as well because Conn Smythe started in 1965. They started giving out that award in 1965. There have only been, um,
3:51
four, pardon me, five other instances, five instances, well, we'll say other 'cause it hasn't happened yet. But there's only been five instances since 1965 where a player on a losing team won the Conn Smythe.
4:03
1966, Detroit Red Wings, Roger Crozier. Glenn Hall in 1968 with the Blues. Reggie Leach with the Flyers in '76. Ron Hextall in goal for the Flyers in 1987.
4:14
And then folks will remember 2003, Jean-Sebastien Giguere for the Mighty Ducks of Anaheim in 2003. So Connor McDavid now positioned, and I'm not even sure they have to win anymore.
4:27
Win or lose, he is your favorite right now, minus 150 at DraftKings. So he has gone-- Remember before this game, I said, "I bet Sergei Bobrovsky plus 131. All he's gotta do is come out, have a great game in game five.
4:41
No one's gonna remember his bad performance in game four. He's gonna win this. How possibly could he be plus money?" Uh, that didn't happen. He has been a sieve since late in game three.
4:52
And right now, and by the way, Barkov hasn't distinguished himself since, so even if the Panthers win, obviously the Oilers win, remember our take was, you can't-- If the Oilers are gonna win, if you believe in the Oilers, bet them at seven to one rather than McDavid at plus 650.
5:05
But that proved to be perhaps horrible advice also because if the Panthers win this in six or seven, but particularly seven, Connor McDavid, like who else, who else is gonna get this? Who else is gonna get this?
5:21
Connor McDavid could be the fifth, excuse me, the sixth player- Yeah... on a losing team to take this, and right now he went from a plus 650 dog to minus 150 in the course of one hockey game. Yeah, it is.
5:32
I, I mean, he, it, it, I mean, it looks like he's definitely going to win it if the Oilers win, but you're right. Oh, for sure, that.
5:37
Like, it's, it's kind of up in the air a little bit, uh, when you start talking about if Florida wins it. The, uh, I mean, what, the great line from him before the game, [laughs] "We're gonna drag them back to Alberta."
5:47
[laughs] This is- They dragged them, all right... I actually like how you're hearing these guys complain about the travel a little bit.
5:53
Like, it is a brutal, it is a brutal trip to go from South Florida to Edmonton, that's for sure. Six hours. It's wild, man. Six hours. It's wild.
6:01
Uh, but, uh, yeah, we appreciate the Oilers for the content, uh, extension here, but, um, I, I'm ready to get my Panthers ticket home. Oh, no. Any, anytime that was You, you have a Panthers ticket too.
6:11
Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Didn't you bet it? No? The Panthers? Yeah. Never. Oh, okay. Yeah, I got a series ticket on that. Never. I, I have no, I have no future. Yeah, I'm ready for that one.
6:19
I had Bobrovsky before this last game, thinking I'm clever. I guess who's not clever. Sergei looking l- looking a whole lot more like a Stuart recently than a Sergei. [laughs] Stuart Skille. Pick it up, Bob.
6:29
Um, so g- good on hockey, 'cause they're providing drama that the NBA did not.
6:34
The other thing that happened, which, uh, is important to bettors yesterday, and certainly to us, because how many times have we talked about NFL Comeback Player of the Year? How many times? A million? A billion?
6:45
This week, this month. [laughs] Uh, tw- 2024, last season, what? We had Aaron Schatz, the founder of Football Outsiders, the creator of DVOA, now he works at FTN. Um, he, we had him on during Super Bowl week.
7:00
And during Super Bowl week, we, on The Numbers Game, we, we broke a lot of news. Like, we had Meryl Hodge on, he was saying Caleb Williams is nothing special, remember.
7:08
And Aaron Schatz himself came on and said, uh, "You know all those MVP votes? I was the guy who didn't vote for Lamar Jackson, um, first."
7:16
We were at dinner with him the night before, and he was just devastated that he was the one, and he took so much incoming.
7:22
The other thing he shared with us, uh, unfairly, by the way, uh, the other thing he shared with us was that when it came to Comeback Player of the Year, he said, "Get ready for it. There's gonna be a change." I just...
7:34
He said, "Well, it's already happening." Well, it came out yesterday publicly, the spir- This was a, a, uh, report, right? Not a report, but this is a statement from the NFL.
7:42
"The spirit of the AP Comeback Player of the Year award is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming," ready for this, Kelly?
7:51
"Illness, physical injury, or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season. The decision to provide this guidance was made last December," that's how Schatzie knew. Mm-hmm.
8:02
"But could not be implemented for the 2023 awards because the season was almost completed." Translation, DeMar Hamlin should have won this thing, but, uh, we didn't get the fine print in in time, so sorry about that.
8:15
[laughs] And, uh, maybe we're a little embarrassed that Joe Flacco won this. So for all of us who had DeMar Hamlin, we're screaming about it. He almost died on the field. How can you not give it to him?
8:24
Uh, there's the NFL's mea culpa, too late. Uh, and now what this means is, for betting this moving forward, this is much more defined. Remember, this was our whole thing, like how do you even speculate- Right, yes...
8:37
about this? 'Cause we don't know how voters are going to go with this, 'cause there's no real solid definition. Well, now we have one. And so if you look at the Comeback Player of the Year odds heading into next season,
8:49
um, you can throw out guys who are coming back from sucking, as I always said, right? Mm-hmm. Gino Smith, Comeback Player of the Year. Why? What's he coming back from? Sucking.
8:58
Well, how about, I don't know, Russell Wilson jumps off the page there at 12 to 1? That's the biggest one. Right? Yeah, that's the biggest one. Uh, Sam Darnold, uh, 20 to 1.
9:07
Uh, throw the- These are throwouts, as they say in the horse racing biz. They're all throwouts. Um, but who does it- Bryce Young was 40 to 1. Bryce Young.
9:15
He's a little bit longer, uh, a little off this graphic, but he's 40 to 1. I mean, Deshaun Watson should never be in this category, ever. They'll never give it to him.
9:22
[laughs] Yeah, I don't think he's getting it regardless. That has nothing to do with the fine print. [laughs] Um, but who is in play? Uh, Aaron Rodgers is in play. Joe Burrow is in play.
9:32
Um, certainly Nick Chubb is in play at 15 to 1.
9:36
Nick Chubb, um, for those who, uh, forget the, the sort of history with Nick Chubb, not only did he have the knee injury in September, this past September, but in that same knee, he tore three ligaments, uh, in college in a game against Tennessee.
9:50
So that's a pretty compelling story, uh, for sure. Um, a little further down the board, Tank Dell, you remember from the Houston Texans- Yeah... broke his fibula, uh, in a game in December of last year.
10:04
Broke his fibula, and, uh, then went ahead and, uh, doubled down on that this off-season last month, which kind of went under the radar. Uh, he was an innocent bystander at a club and he got shot. Mm-hmm.
10:17
Not a big, not, not an injury that he can't recover from. Uh, thankfully no one else hurt seriously in that incident.
10:23
But if you're looking for Comeback Player of the Year narratives, uh, those are the types of things, the Chubb and the Dell stories, that now ought to, based on this definition, trump the comeback from sucking guys.
10:37
It is actually, it, I mean, now that we're looking at this market with- through a fresh lens, right? Yes. Like, you get to actually- It's a brand new world, everybody. Yeah. Right? Yeah.
10:44
Like, you don't have to worry about a surprise guy coming off the couch really and beating you. It, I mean, it does feel like you can narrow down this list a little bit more.
10:52
Like, I don't know about you, but if it was a toss-up, let's say Aaron Rodgers and Joe Burrow do, like, like, the same thing this year, I, I don't really understand why there's that big of a separation between Rodgers and Burrow in the odds.
11:02
Like, I, I think that they would be running to give it to Joe Burrow if he had a great season this year. Um, Anthony Richardson, like, these ones are always tough. Like, I love Anthony Richardson as much as anybody.
11:13
He, he, he missed some games in his rookie year. Like, are we r- we're gonna go hand an award to a guy that we've seen- He di- he di- and he didn't play enough games in his rookie year, right? Right.
11:21
Yeah, I mean, how many was it? Yeah. Like, seven? Did he even get to that? No. Like, are we gonna go give an award to a guy in his second year after he played seven games the year before?
11:28
Anyway, I think this is, for, for bettors in this, in this market, that's big news, and really ought to induce a couple long shot bets right out of the gate, I think. Uh, maybe the ones I mentioned. Uh, we'll come back.
11:39
JBT joins us. His thoughts on the Celtics in terms of their historical legacy, Jayson Tatum's horrible post-game inauthenticity. That's next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:50
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12:05
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12:32
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12:43
I hit the wrong button this time, sir. I see. Yeah. ANG as in a nice gift. How about that? Oh, nice. That is VSiN.com/subscribe now and use promo code ANG. Um, I hope he got a nice gift for his, uh, Father's Day.
12:54
It's our senior NBA analyst, and of course, the co-host of VSiN Prime Time with, uh, Tim Murray weekdays here at the network. It's Jonathan Vontobel, everybody, courtesy of the progressive guest line, @meJBT on Twitter.
13:06
Uh, have you warmed to Father's Days now? You are a father now, but it's, it's almost old hat for you at this point, right? Yeah. This is what? So this would be, like, my fifth, I guess, Father's Day.
13:16
Uh, yeah, my son's five. He's gonna turn six this year. So yeah, I guess so. I mean, I don't think it's really too special. Um, I think it's just, "Hey, look, man, you get a quiet day."
13:24
I did, I will say this, um, I told Tim this yesterday. I did the ultimate old man thing on Sunday, which was awesome, Gil.
13:31
I dozed off on the couch while watching golf, and then my son went to change the channel, and I woke up and said, "Hey, I'm watching that." [laughs] It was awesome. It was- [laughs]
13:41
I was like, if- already falling asleep on the couch was already old man, but that is- Oh, yeah... you're right, that is Hall of Fame level. [laughs] That, that is, uh...
13:49
My father pulled that move on me roughly 172 times in my childhood. Oh. Yeah. Such taboo. I was like, "What are you talking about?" You've been asleep for two hours.
13:57
[laughs] Well, uh, I, I hope your, your future Father's Days go that, go that way as well. Um, let's- I mean, ultimately it's the perfect Father's Day, right? I mean, that's the way it's supposed to go. Oh.
14:06
[laughs] That's so great. Uh, okay, let me, uh, ask you this. Let's, before we move on to other sports, put a bow on the NBA season for us, if you will. Uh, your opinion on where the Celtics sort of
14:19
come up in your recent history pantheon, if you will, and then heading into next year, a team of value. So I, I think that Boston should be remembered as one of the better teams we've seen win an NBA championship.
14:30
Look, we can do the whole ranking thing and where you put them, blah, blah, blah. At the end of the day, that's one of the best collections of talent we've seen win an NBA title. The team was deep.
14:38
It was, um, extremely well put together. They had five guys on the floor at any one time that were a threat from deep, but they were all plus defenders in their respective positions. They had depth.
14:48
That was a master class in team building, I thought, by the Boston Celtics, by Brad Stevens, and everybody else who put that squad together, and I think it should be remembered as such, and the statistics w- would bore that out, too, Gil.
14:58
So I think as we look back, we'll remember that team as one of the better ones that lifted Larry O'Brien, and who knows? I mean, look, they're plus 280, 290 to win a title next year.
15:06
We could see them do it again and repeat for the first time, uh, in a while.
15:09
As far as next year is concerned, for me, I actually did, I did make one bet, and I, I do think that a team like the Memphis Grizzlies is worth considering at this point, uh, so far out because Memphis, first off, right, was not a team that failed last season.
15:22
It was a team that was just ravaged by injuries at every single position, and we know that this team, when it was constructed and put together, was one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.
15:31
In fact, was still last year one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and finished as the top three seed of the Western Conference when they played a full season together.
15:38
Taylor Jenkins is one of the best head coaches in the NBA.
15:41
I think that that's at the very least the team, Gil, where you're looking for, "Let's take some of these shots," because we know, [clears throat] excuse me, we know that their odds are going to improve as we get closer to the season and as we get into the season.
15:53
They're gonna win a lot of games. So I think Memphis is worth investing in at about 45 to 1 to win the NBA Finals. Wow. Okay. Calling your shot there. Uh, do we...
16:00
Uh, I already said yesterday, I'm like, uh, there's only- the only person I'm betting on in any awards for the NBA next year is Wembanyama- Yeah... uh, every which way, MVP, Defensive Player of the Year.
16:11
Should everybody go ahead and do that at this point? Uh, I mean, I, I think yes. [clears throat] Excuse me. I don't know what's happening here.
16:17
Um, I would say yes only because, like, I think that he's going to have the narrative behind him, especially when it comes to Defensive Player of the Year, right?
16:24
Like, there are probably some old hat guards who are sitting there going, "No, I'm not gonna vote him for Defensive Player of the Year because he's a rookie," whatever it is.
16:30
Now that he's, you know, cut his teeth, I can vote for him. So I think you're gonna have that.
16:34
MVP, I did sprinkle a little some because our Harvard Handicappers podcast, our, our group chat decided there was a friendship play. Um, so I wanted to be there in spirit.
16:42
I do think it's a little bit harder for him to win it as a second-year player, considering the great players that are going to be in contention for that award.
16:48
Luka Dončić coming off of this year, Nikola Jokić, we can go down the list.
16:52
But I do think for sure for Defensive Player of the Year, you should probably have him in your portfolio and have him now because similar to what we're talking about for Memphis, those odds are only gonna get shorter for him as the season goes along.
17:00
Yeah, and all those excuses all those voters used to vote against him last year will magically disappear even if the Spurs are, are terrible. Um- In the account already. Let's go, Wemby. There we go. Yeah. Let's go.
17:09
Come on, what's your number? 35. MVP? MVP. Wow, it's already down that. 25, I'm seeing 25s too. It's amazing. Uh- Oh, it's...
17:16
Yeah, I think we opened at 50 at DraftKings, uh, down to 40, and they still have the best number in the country. Uh, you feeling better about Donovan Clingan going number one, worse, or just the same, you have no idea?
17:27
Uh, I feel, I feel actually pretty good. I feel good now that we know, I don't know if you guys saw the report yesterday, the Hawks GM came out and said they're keeping the pick, right?
17:33
And so if, if everything we're hearing is true in that they do like Clingan, that there's people in that building that like Donovan Clingan, he fits what they need, I think, in a really big way, and who knows what's gonna happen with Clint Capela here in the off-season.
17:45
Do they move him? Whatever's gonna happen. Uh, but he fills a, a role that Capela doesn't, right? He is a Rudy Gobert-esque type player that you can put back there, defend the rim.
17:54
He's gonna be able to contest shots, working on his three-point jumper, so even then maybe he could actually space the floor for you on offense if need be and if wide open.
18:00
I, I think he has some real value for Atlanta, so the fact that there was reported the other day that they're gonna keep the pick, Gil, actually makes me feel a little bit better that they are, they're gonna go after Clingan.
18:08
'Cause in a draft like this, look, if you like your guy, just go get him because there's no need to trade down. There's no real burgeoning talent that is head and shoulders above the rest.
18:17
So I do think I feel a little bit better, uh, at Donovan Clingan, especially where I'm at, right? I got 12 and 11 to 1. He's sitting around 6 or plus 550.
18:24
Uh, I think that I'm in a pretty good spot that they're go- gonna go ahead and select him All right. Uh, you are multi-sport talented, though, not just basketball. We don't want to pigeonhole you.
18:33
You're wearing your, uh, California Angels, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Anaheim Angels hat, and you're a fan of theirs. But you also write on the website, I think regularly, every week, on first five stuff, correct?
18:47
Yes. Uh, Tuesdays and Thursdays are the first five articles that are up on the site, uh, so you can check those out. I have a lot of fun with those, 'cause I don't have to deal with the nonsense of bullpens.
18:54
That's, uh, the way I like to attack baseball. Any, any insights for us on that, that, uh, you think, uh, would be noteworthy for baseball bets?
19:01
Yeah, I mean, I, I don't think I do anything groundbreaking, and, you know, I know you talked about this before.
19:05
But from my whole process, Gil, is I like to find these pitchers that have these differentials in their ERA, their fielding independence, sift through their data to find some reason why to back or, or support them, you know, and, and really kind of jump on those statistics.
19:18
For example, you know, yesterday, uh, it's not groundbreaking to say that Roderic Munoz, uh, has been a guy that, who has given up hard contact like crazy. He's got a live fastball.
19:26
He can strike some, get some swings and misses. But for the most part, when opposing hitters can get him, they get him, and they get him hard.
19:32
And then yesterday, of course, you know, one of the plays in the article was a team total over two and a half for the St. Louis Cardinals in the first five innings, and they got there with relative ease.
19:39
They had two in the first inning, and they got to it, I think, in the s- second or third inning with a two-run shot to get them over, and it was a high-scoring, ridiculous affair. But I, I just l- I prefer first fives.
19:48
It's exclusively how I bet baseball, because I, the nonsense of bullpens gets you all the time. You don't know when these guys are gonna come in. You don't know what situation they're gonna come into.
19:57
You don't know what's gonna end up happening. In fact, in that series just the other day, it was on Monday, Gil, Sonny Gray leaves the game at the bottom of the eighth inning 4-1.
20:04
That ends up 7-6 in the 12th inning [laughs], right? Like, the game was absolutely nuts.
20:09
I, I prefer to really just shrink down the sample size and handicap the starting pitchers, because for me, I think it leaves a lot of that noise and that variance out of the equation, and you can feel really comfortable with what you're doing when, from a wagering standpoint.
20:21
Yeah, I think the, the counter would, you know, the obvious counter to that is the straddle for first fives is wider than the full games. Yes.
20:27
But I think regular baseball bettors would immediately counter that counter by saying, "Oh, trust me, I've lost way more g- [laughs]...
20:33
you know, betting the f- the full games than overcome that difference," uh, so they stick with the first five. Any plays today for you in baseball?
20:42
So I haven't dug into it yet, 'cause I'm actually wr- finishing up, uh, the, uh, NFL guide write-ups that I've got.
20:46
I got the AFC East, and I've got another article up in the, uh, the guide today, too, so ones that, today's our first deadline.
20:51
So I haven't dove into baseball, but I've got plenty of AFC East knowledge at the top of my brain if you want anything. Oh, yes, I do.
20:56
Do you have any, uh, sort of out of, you know, normal conventional takes on the AFC East?
21:02
Well, last year, I, I actually came out with you and said my conventional, uh, my out-of-left-field take is that the Patriots might be kind of good, and I was wrong. Yeah.
21:09
Um, so hopefully I'm right here, in that I actually think Miami is the team in the AFC East. Their schedule is one of the easier ones in the, uh, in the AFC East.
21:17
I think they're sixth easiest in terms of opponent win total, uh, for next season. You look at what they have on offense, the addition of Beckham Jr. as your third wide receiver.
21:25
The running back stable is absolutely brilliant, and Tua Tagovailoa looks extremely comfortable in this offense.
21:30
I think when you put all of those together, combined with the thought of, hey, the Bills in certain key positions have declined and have lost some guys.
21:37
A- and of course, with the New York Jets, we don't know exactly yet what Aaron Rodgers is gonna be, but still they're gonna be a very competent team.
21:42
But for me, the differentiator there is the fact that the Dolphins do have one of the easier schedules, and that offense is a game changer.
21:48
I think that they're gonna be competing for a top seed in the AFC, potentially number one overall, and gonna win that division. I'm really all in on, on the Dolphins this year. I love what they bring to the table. Yeah.
21:57
Um, by the way, for those who saw the in-season Hard Knocks last year with the Dolphins, uh, it was just, Mike McDaniel was so, uh, likable, and that whole team was so likable.
22:07
But there is that thing I was mentioning last year on the show, I remember. If things go wrong for them, the whole Mike McDaniel sort of approach gets really tired really quickly. Yeah. One of the things. Right.
22:20
'Cause the NFL world will tr, "Oh, he's just another geek like, uh," what was my man, Brandon Staley, with the chart? Like, they'll immediately turn on him.
22:26
So I hope it works out for him, 'cause he seems like a really, uh, great dude and, and a, a guy who approaches things differently. JBT, thank you, sir. Happy Father's Day, belatedly, sir. Thank you, guys. Appreciate it.
22:37
Jonathan Montelb, everybody. @ma- @meJBT. That it's the ultimate old man thing. "Hey, I turn that back. I was watching that." [laughs] That's so great. Will Hill with all his plays on the other side.
22:47
This is the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. For goodness sakes, check out our website, vsin.com.
22:57
Best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state. That's always interesting. Betting tools, betting guides. Today, looking at the front page here, Mike Somich, alternative ways to find value in MLB betting.
23:08
Lou Finicaro on UFC Fight Night. Uh, Tyler Shoemaker on the WNBA. You name it, we got it at vsin.com. By the way, I have a tennis match coming up, uh, that I bet.
23:20
Um, after that debacle on Heather Watson yesterday, where we had a plus 180 play on her, and she was up 5-2 in the third, and then she gacked it, uh, I've got Victoria Golubic again, uh, as a big dog.
23:33
We won on her as a big dog the other day. Uh, this is even bigger. This is plus 225. I got her at plus 223 last night, uh, on the website vsin.com/picks. That's for subscribers.
23:45
Every host, every guest, every sport where we have a pick, that is at vsin.com/picks on the website. So I have, uh, Victoria Golubic against our, my, my girl Leila Fernandes.
23:56
But, uh, Golubic is really good on grass, and at plus 223, that is a play. Should start here momentarily in England. Uh, we get tweets at Beating the Book. Always appreciate the, uh, the feedback from everybody.
24:09
This is from Roger Jones. Well, let me re- let me read the, uh, yeah, okay. "I think you are short-changing Darnold on Comeback Player of the Year. Haunting doesn't count? I see ghosts out there.
24:21
Can't wait for Weingarten to push the narrative [laughs] in October. Uh, RJ, can someone let JBT know that he still has the sticker on his hat?" I think he's just being cool with the sticker on his hat, right?
24:29
It's what the cool kids do, yeah. [laughs] Yeah, it's what the cool kids do, man. Uh, lot of response to the Rufus Peabody, uh, interview yesterday. The numbers guy, such a great interview. Thanks for that, Gil.
24:38
For a moment there at the beginning, it felt like Rufus had made a plea bargain. Fascinating. Um, Wharton Moneyball, uh, from the Wharton School, checking in.
24:47
Great look, uh, at our friend Rufus Speedbody, and some eye-opening details about the golf betting world. Appreciate that. This is from, uh... Oh, Byron Lindacue checked in. He said, "Awesome insights, fellas," on that.
24:57
It's all Rufus. I really appreciate him coming on from London yesterday. This is from Rideco, who said, uh... Oh, he sent a couple. This is from late last night.
25:06
He said, "Please be a sports talk radio guy tomorrow," meaning this morning. "It's expected from you." So I asked him, I said, "Are y- are you speaking of Willie Mays?" He goes, "Yes."
25:16
So we will, I will, uh, mention, you know, Willie Mays coming up. Um, obviously,
25:21
for some, the greatest player of all time, passing away at the age of 93, and a fixture at, uh, Giants games for so many of these years where I was there. And this one, and we'll lead into Will Hill with this.
25:30
This is from Justifolo Vison. He says, "So Flacco publicly didn't want the award," talking about Comeback Player of the Year, "and now the NFL defined it as something he wouldn't have gotten in the future.
25:42
What an awkward waste of an award. Great job, voters." We bring in Will Hill, everybody, @NotTheWillHill.
25:48
He is the host of the Shoulda Bet More podcast, and of course part of Chris Falica's Best Bets pod, courtesy of the Progressive guest line. Will, you have something to share about Comeback Player of the Year with us?
25:58
Yeah, just wrote yesterday a, uh, a piece on Comeback Player of the Year. I was just looking for futures, just kinda combing through everything. The MVP numbers aren't that great.
26:06
Stumbled upon Comeback Player of the Year, and Darnold at 20 to 1 I thought was, uh, one that jumped out to me. I wrote about it just because I think he's in a good position. I, I...
26:14
A lot of my handicap was, hey, there's no criteria for this stuff. Geno Smith, we saw- [laughs]...
26:19
kind of went under a similar, I don't know, path, where he was a Jets quarterback, a bust, and then he ends up in a good situation, plays well, then he wins the award.
26:26
Darnold, I, I'm not even a fan of Darnold, but he's in a great situation with Jefferson and Addison, and a defense that played well last year. You add Aaron Jones.
26:34
So I mean, he's minus 270 to be the week one starter for the Vikings. The things out of camp for McCarthy haven't been great.
26:39
So if Darnold gets the job, wins the job, and leads them to the playoffs, there's gonna be a narrative. And people like to dunk on the Jets anyway, and, and just say, "Hey, it was the Jets that ruined him."
26:47
Everyone li- you know, thinks he's talented, it's not his fault.
26:50
So if he ever went, I don't know, 10 and 7, 11 and 6, and led them to the playoffs, I think he fits the fact that hey, there's no criteria, and he, he's got as good a case as anybody. Rodgers is, like, even money.
27:00
You can't bet that. But now that there's this criteria where basically, I don't know how you guys perceive it, I, I caught some of your, uh, your discussion of it. You basically have to be coming off an injury.
27:08
You have to have missed games- Yeah... but missed games for a reason. It's a little clearer. So that would, uh, kinda, kinda debunk a, a lot of what I wrote. [laughs] Not all of it. The NFL was waiting.
27:16
They were like, "Has Will Hill's article dropped yet? Has it yet? Yet? Not yet. Okay. Now it has? Okay, we'll give the announcement." They still, they still left themselves a little bit of wiggle room- They did...
27:25
in the language. This is the AP. It is the AP award, right? So it's AP redefining what this is. But overcoming illness, physical injury, or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season.
27:39
Uh, they don't put that out without it, uh, without being really intentional about why they're putting that out. No, I, I, I think you're right.
27:44
But I, I also don't, I also don't blame them for leaving themself [laughs] wiggle room in case some crazy, something crazy happens. I will say this.
27:51
So- If some- if someone ever wins this again, having, coming back, hav- having come back from sucking and not meeting that criteria, we should all just riot the building. That's the thing.
28:01
Like, we're deep diving into these rules, the different clauses, but are the writers... Like, the writers don't... I mean, how much do they pay attention to this?
28:08
Do they just fill out the ballot, "Hey, Darnold was a good story. I'll vote for him"? Are they really gonna be talked off it? I don't know. It, it's interesting. It is funny, the timing of it. So- Yeah... I don't know.
28:16
So- It, it definitely put, uh, it, it definitely hurts the bet, but who knows? Sorry about your piece. Dead on arrival.
28:22
I think I've also decided in the past 15 minutes that there's, like, a 98% chance it's Rodgers, Burrow, or Cousins winning this. [laughs] That's, that's right.
28:29
Like, for the amount of time we spent talking about this last year- Bets... or not at all this year. Well, we didn't even mention that the first time, or I didn't. You're right.
28:36
And, like, Rodgers, Burrow, or Cousins, it may just be that simple. Right at the top. Who- Yeah. I, like, whoe- whoever, whoever can make it through the season and a- Yeah... you know, get to the playoffs.
28:46
Will, what do you got in baseball today? Uh, played under. There's a four-and-a-half first five Guardians and, uh, and Mariners, Wu against Bibee, two pitchers I really like. Bibee h- has really good numbers.
28:57
If you look at Wu, Wu's one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball.
28:59
188 expected batting average, uh, a, a 188, I think, expected ERA, I mean, he's in the top one or two percentile in a- in all these categories when you look at that.
29:09
I mean, he's really, uh, throwing the ball incredibly well, and Bibee's a guy I like. So four and a half is juice. I think it's minus 135 at DraftKings, minus 132 some other spots. But I like getting that hook.
29:18
I like if, hey, if it's three one or two two after five, you win instead of push. I think that hook is key, so I did play the under there. I, I wanna play the Giants somehow.
29:27
Uh, I don't know if you've heard of this baseball team by the bay called the San Francisco Giants, Gilie. Oh, interesting. But they're facing Hendricks. Hendricks has been awful.
29:34
Uh, 317 expected batting average, 563 expected ERA. He's just gotten hammered. He basically throws the ball, you know, 85, 86 miles an hour. So I, I don't know, Giants team total first five is, like, two and a half.
29:44
It's juice. But they should be able to hit Hendricks. It's... I, I don't know if you saw this.
29:48
This is one of the, uh, the higher totals you'll see in baseball now with all the pitching and, you know, it's hard to score 11. So my guess is, I haven't looked at it, my guess is the wind is blowing out in Wrigley.
29:58
So that, that's about as high a total non-course as you'll see. But I don't know, I'll probably play Giants first five or over team total two and a half in the first five, maybe split my bet between those two.
30:08
I think Cole's a little overvalued here for the Yanks. I just, I never like taking pitchers their first start back off the IL. I feel like they could be a little bit rusty, just not sharp. Um, he's laying a good number.
30:19
I think minus 175, so you get a good, uh, a good number o- on the comeback on Baltimore. I, I wonder if they're gonna throw at Henderson, because I mean, Judge got hit and left the game. Torres got hit.
30:29
I, I wonder, you know, is there some prop angle where, hey, Henderson gets hit early and you play under his hits because first of all, if he gets hit, he loses in at bat and, you know, who knows if, uh...
30:39
It's not really the nature of the game anymore, but hey, if two of my guys got hit, J- you knock Judge out of the game, then you hit Torres, whether it's intentional or not, I, I gotta come back and, you know, throw at your best player.
30:47
That's just old school baseball. So, uh, I do think the Orioles are a little undervalued. Yeah, I'm looking at, uh, the, the Yankees stats here.
30:54
This is, I mean, a huge day for you with G- Garrett Cole and this, uh, three-game set with the Orioles, and Garrett Cole making his debut.
31:00
Uh, Yankees not only the best record in baseball, but I'm looking at, uh, first five stats for bettors, the most profitable team, first five, without Garrett Cole.
31:10
The New York Yankees thus far this year, you'd be up 13 and a half units. That thing you mentioned about Kyle Hendricks, though, I cannot, you know...
31:17
I, I, I must have at least 20 times over the course of the years with Kyle Hendricks, when talking about a game in which he was starting, say, um, he throws, you know, the 85 mile per hour pitch.
31:29
His margin of error is so thin. Right. I don't know how this guy does it. So these, this moment in his career was always going to happen, right? Like, it just was inevitable, and here we are.
31:40
Yeah, and that was, I mean, he used to have 88, 89. He could really get it up to, like, 91. Yeah. That's livable.
31:45
That's, you still have the margin for error, but he's at the, that margin where, you know, you lose a mile or two, it's just all the difference in the world, where now, I mean, you're not getting fooled on the changeup.
31:53
You're just, you're, uh, you're really gonna get hit hard. So I, I gotta figure out a way to play the Giants somehow here. Uh, I started betting some NBA draft stuff.
32:02
I don't know, [laughs] boy, if, if it weren't for betting the draft, it, th- this draft would be rough, 'cause, uh, nobody's ever heard of any of these guys.
32:08
But I guess, I, I think it was Jonathan Wasserman tweeted out that Cody Williams could be a sleeper for top five. So I bet him third, fourth, and fifth, all, like, you know, 12 to one, 25 to one, 30 to one.
32:18
And then he tweeted out some guy Bouvis could be a top five. I went to bet it, and then I just said, "You know what? I'm not doing this. I'm not doing this." [laughs] I don't know who this person is.
32:25
I'm not gonna sit here with 100 bets on 100 bets I've never heard of.
32:28
I got my little action in on Cody Williams, who could be a sleeper, who's one of the few guys I've actually heard of, the kid from Colorado who I think has a chance to be a decent player.
32:35
But, uh, this, uh, this draft'll be interesting, what they wanna book, what they hang, because nobody knows any of these players. Nobody's heard of any of these players. It's gonna be interesting.
32:42
It's a week from tonight, the NBA draft. Week from tonight. Amazing, right? Uh, any other, before we go, any other random macro sports take that you have or a bet that you've got that others do not?
32:52
I had Jason Weingarten on the pod. I think, uh, I don't know if he's coming up with you, so I'll be interested- He is... to listen. But we were going through NL MVP. I feel like there's a bet there.
32:59
It's almost like Where's Waldo, where you're star- You know Waldo's on the page somewhere. I just can't find it, because Harper and Ohtani are short. Everyone else is double digits, and you just go through the numbers.
33:09
I know there's somebody there at double digit long odds that has a shot. I just can't seem to figure out who it is. So it's definitely a market I'll be keeping my eye on with BetTor. All right.
33:17
I'll be sure to ask him about it as well, um, among other things. Will, appreciate it, and, uh, like the, uh, like the dark blazer, man. Nice job on the article. Thank you, guys.
33:26
Nice job on the comeback player of the year article, by the way. Good job there. Appreciate it. Thanks for having me. Yeah.
33:30
[laughs] That's a, that's a tough one, where you submit and then the NFL's like, "We're changing the rules." That sucks. Dead on Arrival. We'll come back near s- uh, near s- pardon me, seeing Najat talking golf next.
33:50
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game, live from Bar Canana, The Barrage, here at downtown Las Vegas at the D. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Pittman.
34:01
Uh, I just wanna read this one tweet, Kelly, 'cause I think you appreciate this. Chris Hartman, our old buddy from, uh, primetime action days.
34:06
He says, uh, "Gil, new Matt Brown challenge, um, combining golf and football." He says, "Can he hit a golf ball from under one upright through the opposite upright on a football field? 100 yards, five swings, with a PW."
34:23
What is a PW in this case? Pitching wedge. Pitching wedge. With a pitching wedge? Okay. Uh, yeah, 100 yards. "How many go through? This is a very bettable event. Thanks." It is a very bettable event.
34:33
However, knowing our buddy Matt Brown, if we suggest this to him- It's pretty good... he's gonna need the perfect weather conditions. The barometer has to be exact to where it needs to be as well. Correct.
34:43
Barometer reading. W- we couldn't go to our same old football field, because that was turf of some kind. He would need grass to hit that off of. He would need grass. That's right. He would have to- It was turf, right?
34:51
I remember that. No, it was grass. It's grass? Well, I don't remember. You hurt yourself, you tell me. Had to have been turf, 'cause I went down. That's right.
34:57
[laughs] The Turf Monster got me, so it had to have been turf. That's right. Um, well- Oh, Sean s- tells me turf, yes. Turf. It was turf. At the great All Star Park or whatever. Haven't been back since. Something.
35:06
Great park, though. Well, caused your most c- catastrophic injury ever. Remember how nice, how nice that was? It's beautiful. We're all like, "Why is there nobody here? This is beautiful out here." It's incredible.
35:15
It's incredible. Uh, before we get to Siya and talk, uh, travelers, Monty Williams. Yeah. What the what? I have no idea.
35:23
Uh, Pistons have, uh, fired Monty Williams one year after paying him a whole lot of money to come over to Detroit and kind of rebuild their, uh, whole organization there.
35:31
So, uh, not really, I've heard a couple stories about stuff going on behind the scenes. I don't know if there's kind of more to this, uh- There has to be more to this... yeah, more to this.
35:40
And, and his wife was sick too, so I don't know if that's involved. I don't wanna jump to anything here, but they are parting ways at least, uh, with Monty Williams. Um- After a 14 and 68 season. Yeah.
35:51
It should be noted. But it was, I mean, it's five years, $65 million left that they have to pay him out. Um, and then also real quick, Pascal Siakam and the Pacers seem to, uh, have agreed to an extension.
36:05
Max, uh, contract for him coming as soon as free agency opens and he can sign. Did you say Monty Williams' wife was sick? Yes, I believe so. You know his wife, his previous wife, died in a car accident in, like in 2016.
36:20
So I mean, if that's the case, geez. If that's related to this. Um, the other thing I wanna mention to you is we have the first tropical storm of the season, Kelly. Yeah, we do. It's, uh, headed to Texas.
36:32
Heading towards Texas. Um, heading- Where are you going, where are you going this weekend? I'm heading to Texas, heading to Austin to meet [laughs]... This is the best part.
36:37
Heading to Austin to meet up with friends that w- all of us from back in South Florida days. Oh.
36:42
So I'm getting all the texts right now of like, "Are we really all gonna fly to Austin, Texas and get hit by a tropical storm?"
36:48
Um, not, not being, I'm not trying to be flippant here with you, but you really should actually determine when that storm is hitting, because that would be a really stupid idea
36:56
And even though you're halfway into the state, it's still is gonna affect the weather. Probably. I mean, things are already paid for, though. Like, what are you supposed to do? [laughs] Brutal.
37:06
Sia Nejad joins us, everybody. It's tomorrow night. From, from the, uh... Oh, it's tomorrow night? From the, uh- Oop. Oh, well, enjoy. Uh, host and analyst at the Monumental Sports Network.
37:15
You can follow him on Twitter @sianejad, S-I-A N-E-J-A-D, talking Travelers with us. How you doing, Sia? What's happening?
37:22
I'm doing well, although I'm a little upset that Kelly didn't invite me to the festivities given that I was in South Florida for 17 years. Yes, I missed Kelly. Wow.
37:30
He went out to Vegas, but still, uh, I'd, I'd like an invite next time. Thank you. Hey, we got an Airbnb. You're welcome to come, Sia. All right. Uh, well, we, we got a couch for you.
37:38
Sounds like a snub to me, Sia, is what it sounds like. Um- It's a snub... all right, Travelers, great field.
37:45
I'm really curious to see how you're gonna bet this, espe- well, before we do that, your thoughts on what just transpired at the US Open. How did you do on that? Well, I didn't do great.
37:54
I, I, I didn't have any out- the only outright that I had that was in contention was Hideki Matsuyama, and, and I don't know if you're referring to the, just the Rory McIlroy debacle.
38:02
I actually did have a live bet on Rory, probably after the fourth hole. Going into the par five, I had him at plus 200 to win, which, you know, wasn't some huge bet or anything.
38:11
Uh, the fact that he lost that tournament, though, I mean, gr- credit to Bryson and all that, but y- you can't miss two putts within four feet, one within three feet o- on two of the last three holes.
38:21
It's just, you know, we, we always overuse the word choke, uh, but in this case, it was, like, the perfect illustration of, of a choke job, so. Yeah. Uh, but I will say this, it was great for golf that Bryson won.
38:32
It still would've been great if Rory won as well. I think everybody has made the determination that this LIV PGA Tour needs to get back together sooner rather than later.
38:40
They had already made that determination, but it was punctuated by Bryson DeChambeau this last week. Well said. All right. What are we doing at the Travelers this week? Again, a great field, including Scottie Scheffler.
38:50
Are we making any Scottie Scheffler, uh, angry bets this week? Probably not, and honestly, the, like, most of the last four to eight weeks, I would say I've been betting the without Scottie Scheffler market.
39:03
In other words, I've taken him out of the mix and taken shorter odds. I choose not to do that this week. Um, I, I think Scottie could absolutely win it. He's been a, a monster at these signature events.
39:12
He's been a monster at majors with the exception of last week.
39:15
Uh, but I don't know that this course really takes advantage of all of Scottie's strengths, so much so that I wanna take the without Scottie Scheffler market.
39:23
So the two that I've taken so far, and I think I'm gonna add one, but Ludvig Åberg, uh, at plus 1400, I really like him.
39:30
A- and anybody who follows golf, like, I don't know that I need to sit here and sing the praises of Ludvig, because he's been so incredibly good, kind of machine-like.
39:38
He got off track a little bit last week at the US Open 'cause of the around the green play, but this is a much different around the green test, and frankly, I, I'm not emphasizing aro- around the green play like I would have last week.
39:50
The ball striking is there. The ability to get hot with the putter and pile up the birdies at what will likely be a birdie fest. I mean, plus 1400 isn't the greatest number.
39:58
Um, you, you'd opened at plus 1700, then plus 1600, then Rory withdrew, it got down to plus 1400. I still think it's a good enough number to bet. The other one that I'm betting is a guy I faded last week.
40:08
Uh, he was specifically a fade for me because of the around the green play, and that was Viktor Hovland. I'm not even saying I'm in love with Viktor Hovland this week, although I love his ball striking.
40:17
I love his ability to get hot with the putter. All of those things, he checks a lot of the boxes, but he's 20 to 1.
40:23
A- and at, at a certain point, the odds fall far enough where it just creates value on a guy that I know is one of the best players in the world, uh, in my opinion, top five, top seven player in the world.
40:33
So Viktor Hovland at a very good course fit, um, at plus 2000. He's, he's... Uh, it's gonna be a short card for me. It's gonna be Ludvig at plus 1400, Viktor at plus 2000.
40:43
I may throw in, like, a Sahith Theegala at plus three, 3300, or a Sepp Straka, Corey Conners. I haven't really decided what I'm doing there, but those are my two main outrights.
40:52
Yeah, probably should mention Scottie Scheffler, plus 360 is the short shot here. Xander Schauffele, plus 750. Morikawa's 12 to 1. The usual suspects, if you will, uh, at the top of the leaderboard. Mm-hmm.
41:03
So you mentioned your outrights. Of course, it is a Sia Nejad segment. That means officially it is not won until we talk first round leaders, because that is your thing, whether you like it or not, Sia.
41:13
[laughs] Uh, your success means that it is. What did you bet here for first round leader? So I mentioned Sahith Theegala at 33 to 1. I really like his game. I like how his game is trending.
41:22
He can be a little erratic off the tee, but he's really kind of honed that in a little bit, and for the record, he was second here two years ago. So he knows how to play this course.
41:31
He knows how to attack this course, k- get it in the fairway, get dialed in, uh, with the approach play. And again, he's another guy that can pile up the birdies.
41:39
You really want guys who can get hot with the flat stick, uh, and who hopefully have good ball striking numbers as well. A- and Sahith Theegala checks all those boxes.
41:47
As a first round leader, I think he's kind of like a perfect candidate.
41:49
Another perfect candidate at 40 to 1, Sepp Straka, who honestly, if Sepp Straka had, like, long, flowing hair a- and, and like Tommy Fleetwood and, and just, like, looked the part like some of these other guys, his odds would be dramatically shorter week to week.
42:04
But for whatever reason, Sepp Straka doesn't really get the, the recognition for whatever reason, and he's long.
42:11
He's, he's long on the outright board, and it's, it's starting to correct now, because he's piling up top 10s and top 20s. But the long and short of it is Sepp Straka can get red hot.
42:19
He's been good at this course before. He's 40 to 1. He's a guy that can absolutely fill it up with the putter when he's on, and the ball striking's been great. So I like him at 40 to 1.
42:27
And then Taylor Pendrith, this is kind of a wild card. The, the last first round leader I hit, it was, like, four or five weeks ago with Akshay Bhatia at this same number, 65, 66 to 1.
42:36
This is a guy that I don't think can survive all four rounds, but Taylor Pendrith is playing really, really good golf, perhaps the best golf he's played in his entire career so far.
42:44
He's shaken off an injury from, like, a year or two ago, and now the ball striking is there. A little erratic off the tee, but the putter. I just mentioned you gotta have guys that fill it up with the putter.
42:53
He has been unbelievable with the putter over the last six or seven tournaments. If he gets hot for 18 holes, look out, because 65, 66 to 1 could cash in with Taylor.
43:02
I will be honest, I did not expect the golf betting market lack of flowing hair discount theory on the show today. Oh, it's- But here we are. Gil, it's, it's, it's name recognition.
43:13
Like, if you have a cool-sounding name, you're gonna be, like, 10 points shorter than, than a guy who, like Tom Hoge, who has, like, a boring-sounding name, or, like, Zach Blair or something.
43:22
And if you're Sepp Straka, even though that rolls off the tongue, i- i- he needs to add, like, long hair or, like, a cool beard or goatee or something, and all of a sudden, these 40, 50 to 1s will drop to, like, 28 to 1.
43:32
Okay. It's just math. Hmm. Yeah, it's just m- [laughs] It's just math. It's obvious. Fade the better-looking guy. Simple arithmetic. That's what it is. Got it.
43:39
[laughs] All right, and then in the category of most random first round matchup you can possibly find, what do you got here?
43:45
Yeah, this one goes off tomorrow morning, and, like, it's, I think, the one of the first groups that are out. Robert McIntyre over Jake Knapp. It's minus 130.
43:52
Uh, McIntyre and Knapp off the tee a little shaky, but what Knapp is really shaky about is really everything lately. He's been bad with the putter, been bad with the approach play.
44:00
As erratic as Robert McIntyre might be off the tee, he makes up for it with the approach game, especially lately, and with the short game. I like this minus 130, round one two ball, McIntyre over Knapp.
44:11
Monumental Sports Networks and the DMVs, Sia Nejad. Thank you, Sia, appreciate it. Thanks, fellas, appreciate you. Travelers, Kelly will talk more Travelers a little later on in the show.
44:21
I got more on chubby Sepp Straka coming up. He's got things to say. Uh, Paul Carr joins us, not only Euro Cup 2024, uh, but also the Copa America. That's next. [upbeat music]
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