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Jun 19, 2024
A Numbers Game | June 19, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | June 19, 2024 | Hour 2
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44:04
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. So, one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. We shout 'em all out. We appreciate you, uh, taking us in from any one of those spots.
0:20
We are grateful. Kelly Bidlin alongside. It's Gil Alexander, and, uh, well, still to come this hour, Jason Weingarten with all his bets. Again, I'm anticipating a Rose Zhang bet. This is happening.
0:31
Well, that's, uh, probably a pretty safe bet. Yeah. Kelly's got, uh, his thoughts on the Travelers as well. Our, uh, tennis play, uh, off to a good start.
0:40
Victoria Golubic is a, uh, plus 225 dog up a break on our girl, Leylah Fernandez. Not our girl today, though. By the way, College World Series, gotta point this out as well. FSU, the Seminoles- Let's go. Come on...
0:53
stave off elimination again for the second straight time. What do we need, three more? Uh, they knocked out Virginia, they knocked out North Carolina, now they're in the double elimination with Tennessee. Right.
1:02
So they gotta beat 'em two times in a row to advance to the actual best of three championship. That's fine. They beat 'em once already. Yeah, that's true, and they didn't call the check swing.
1:12
[laughs] I mean, they called the check swing and they shouldn't have.
1:14
But here's the, the, the story today is, first of all, there's three games today in c- in the College World Series, and the Kentucky-Florida elimination game from last night got postponed due to rain.
1:25
So whoever advances, so whoever loses that game is out, Kentucky-Florida, to start the day, and it's already starting now. Yeah, it's like right now, right?
1:32
When whoever wins that game has to play tonight against Texas A&M in that double elimination. Really? Yes.
1:41
'Cause I w- even watching the Florida State game yesterday, I was surprised they made that call as early as they did. They made it so early. Yeah. In middle of the Florida State game.
1:49
Also, also, like Florida State game, the longest baseball game I've like- Oh my God... seen in five years. Forever. I don't know.
1:54
I checked, [laughs] I checked the time at one point, I was like, "Wait, when did this start?" But it ended well, nine to five, and so Tennessee and Florida State is the second game.
2:02
In between those games today, uh, if Tennessee wins, we're done. But Jamie Arnold is available for either today or tomorrow, and I'm not sure yet which he's pitching in.
2:12
Maybe somebody can help me out, 'cause when I looked before the show, it was still a mystery.
2:15
Uh, Florida State's ace, Jamie Arnold, who, uh, was shaky in that first game, but he had some in- he had some cut from the celebration from the super regionals, so he should be back to, uh, his full strength.
2:26
So that's exciting in the College World Series as we, uh, try to root our future home. Paul Carr joins us now from Topeka, Kansas.
2:33
He's the host of the Expected Value podcast, works at True Media Networks, joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Paulie, it's your time of year, man.
2:41
Your time of, uh, I said not only the year, but the year where all the good tournaments happen or, or some of the good tournaments happen. I know. Euros are running, Copa America starts tomorrow, Friday? Yeah.
2:53
I don't even know what day it is. Uh, and usually they're staggered a little bit more, but we're gonna get, I mean, a whole day of soccer.
2:58
There's, you know, six games a day once we get going in about a week, and one group stage is ending, the other one's going, and yeah, it's gonna be nuts by Friday.
3:05
And that, and that's why before, uh, we ask you about any of that, Kelly, uh, had a great point on the, on the break. Talk to us about this turf war between Kansas and Missouri about the Chiefs.
3:14
[laughs] What is that all about? Oh, I mean, it's just a, it's an eternal rivalry in some ways.
3:20
You know, I mean, there was a similar smaller scale war when Sporting Kansas City was building a stadium about, what, 15 years ago or so.
3:27
I mean, it's, it carries over to sports betting, where Kansas passed sports betting a couple years ago, and Missouri's legislature is a disaster and can't do it, and there's definitely a, a Kansas, you know, we're gonna pass this 'cause you can't mindset in some ways.
3:39
And it's sort of the same thing. It's politicians and, and rich people fighting over money. Uh, you know, the Chiefs want more money because being a billionaire, can't pay for your own stadium, of course.
3:48
And the voters in Missouri, uh, voted against a, a pretty terrible bill, or terribly organized bill at least, earlier this year.
3:56
And so now Kansas is jumping in, trying to figure out what kind of tax breaks to entice the Chiefs over- Mm... to Kansas, which would be quite the coup. Would the average fan care?
4:05
'Cause I know like, you know, with the Skins, if it's DC versus Maryland or Virginia, we care.
4:10
'Cause again, the joke for those of us who grew up in, in, spent most of our time in DC and Maryland, having a stadium in Virginia, it's like a foreign land. Like, as soon as we go over the Potomac River- Yeah...
4:18
we have no idea where we are, right? And, and especially if they go deep into Virginia. Um, and there's also, you know, if you're out in suburban Maryland versus DC proper where RFK was. Is it the same with...
4:28
I mean, literally you can stretch your hand across, right? And you're in Kansas. Yeah. I mean, not really. I don't, people wouldn't really care. It would definitely be a point of pride- Yeah...
4:38
where, you know, Kansas would rib Missouri about it. Um, like selfishly, I would care just that if the Chiefs come to Kansas, that saves me like half an hour or so getting to a game in all likelihood.
4:48
So there's the practical side of it. Yeah. But from a I'm not gonna root for this team 'cause I don't feel like they're in my town anymore, I don't think it's gonna matter at all. Yeah, I don't think it's gonna matter.
4:55
Okay.
4:56
Let's talk first, before we get to Copa America, let's talk Euros 2024, and the first thing I wanna say to you is, uh, Kelly and I, we, we get outta here at 9:00 AM Pacific, which is exactly when the anthem started.
5:08
And my old producer, producer number three, Jorge Mendaca, used to do his great handicapping thing, who is singing the anthem more passionately? And that's who he would end up betting on.
5:17
Um, but we immediately were talking about stuff after the show, and then Lukaku, uh R- Ugh... Romelu Lukaku has a point blank range shot.
5:25
Uh, he misses it, and then scores twice, and they both get called back, one by, uh, offside, one by handball, right? Unbelievable. Brutal. Brutal. Brutal.
5:37
The only good thing is nobody scored more than one goal in the first set of group games, so, like the golden boot bet for Lukaku is not dead. Not dead. Yeah, he could add two or three- Oh, brutal...
5:45
and Belgium is still Belgiuming just like the World Cup, so very frustrating from a betting standpoint. You said Belgium is Belgiuming. Is that what you said? That is correct. Yes. [laughs] It's a verb. It's a verb.
5:54
Okay. Uh, generally, have you learned much from this so far, this tournament? I don't think so.
5:59
I mean, Belgium was the big upset, but they still, you know, created plenty of chances, and I still kind of like them to win that group Uh, plus 250 or so. So I feel like haven't learned a ton.
6:09
It was, you know, the good teams were generally good, even if the results didn't go their way. Uh, so yeah. Y- you can see the title odds haven't shifted very much early on, as you would expect from one group game.
6:19
So it's been kind of status quo through the first set of group games for me. All right. We have three games today, correct? Three? We do. One just finished. Croatia, Albania just drew 2-2. Yeah.
6:29
Uh, Albania with the- Oh, I was gonna-... late equalizer I literally, I was like, "That is live, right?" Like, I was looking at that. That, that's a bit of a, uh, upset for the draw, right, for Albania, right?
6:37
Absolutely. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, it's their first ever, uh, Euros point, I think. They may have gotten a point a couple tournaments ago.
6:43
But big result against a Croatia team that's aging, but still, you know, pretty good and capable of making a run. So yeah, that was a pretty big moment for Albania there, scoring the late equalizer. All right.
6:53
Um, you, uh, famously love Germany, but you do not have a pick on Germany-Hungary, correct? No. No. No.
6:59
The only pick I have that's related to today's games, this is a, I mean, technically a future, uh, Scotland to finish last in Group A. Okay. At minus 115. Still love it.
7:08
You know, they have, they're probably gonna lose to Switzerland today, and then they'd have to beat Hungary in all likelihood to not finish last. So I don't like their chances of that.
7:17
They got a, they got smoked by Germany. The goal difference is bad if it comes to that, which it probably won't.
7:22
But yeah, Scotland's the worst team in the group, I think, by a pretty fair margin, so still being able to get minus 115 on them finishing last is pretty good. What are we doing with France and the Netherlands tomorrow?
7:30
That's a good game. Yeah. This is a little, uh, so the question here is Kylian Mbappé. He broke his nose in the opener, and we think he's gonna play with a mask, but we're not totally sure.
7:42
So I think because of that, you can get plus 125 on a France win, uh, which I like. I mean, I think they're a better team even without Mbappé. They're very deep up top. They've got plenty of attacking options.
7:51
And their defense is really, really good. And Netherlands, you know, they don't have their best playmaker. Frankie de Jong's out for the tournament with an injury.
7:58
So I, again, this is take the better team at a pretty decent plus money price. France plus 125 against Netherlands. Yeah.
8:05
France, Kelly, gonna o- have to overcome not only the Netherlands, but also Holland and the Dutch at the same time. It's pretty amazing. Wow. [laughs] Yeah. Uh, and the- And the Dutch.
8:13
[laughs] And the D- if there's two things I can't stand. [laughs] Uh, that's one of the great lines ever. All right, and just to clarify about Belgium, you still like them to win their group? I do.
8:22
You can get, at plus 250, I do. You know, they're still the best team by a fair margin there. Like I said, they created plenty of chances.
8:28
Finished some of them, even though, you know, there was a graze of a handball and barely offside. So they, again, they may Belgium. That may be how it goes. But they're still significantly the better team here.
8:39
If they win their last two games, they're almost certain to win the group. All right. While most of the world is focused on Euro 2024, there's also Copa America. Let's go through this rapid fire. Format is what?
8:49
16 teams, four groups of four. Top two advance to the quarterfinals. Pretty straightforward here. Straightforward. Okay. And Argentina is the big favorite. Why? Big favorite. Well, two reasons.
9:01
One, they're the best team. Plus 175 is the price on them, which I don't think is worth it. But two, they have a really nice draw. Hmm.
9:06
You could argue the four or five best other teams are all on the other half of the bracket, uh, because the way it'll set up for them.
9:12
So, you know, they won't have to play Brazil or Colombia or Uruguay or even the US before the final. So yeah, best team, best draw. They're the favorite by a, a wide shot here.
9:21
And your prognosis on the good old US of A would be? So weird. Like, if they don't advance, the tournament's a failure.
9:28
But they're, they're expected to advance and then lose in the quarters to maybe Brazil or Colombia, which is the, that's, like, precisely meeting expectations. Sounds about right. So if you- Yeah. Yeah.
9:36
Kind of like the World Cup, you know? They got out of the group as you hoped and thought they should. Then they lost to the Dutch. So it's, if they get to the semis for the US, huge success. What was that one?
9:46
In- oh, two things I can't stand: intolerance of other cultures- [laughs] Dot, dot, dot... people who are intolerant of other people's cultures. And the Dutch.
9:52
[laughs] That's j- that's from Austin Powers, by the way, for those wondering. Uh, okay. Your, you have a, you have a bevy. You got a handful of plays here in Copa America.
10:00
Um, first of all, to win the title, what do you got here? Yeah, this price, not sure it's still around everywhere, but I have Colombia to win at plus 1400. Uh, they're arguably the third-best team at the tournament.
10:10
If you want to get weird, you could argue they're even better than Brazil. Uh, not sure I'd go that far, but really solid defense, couple good attackers. Uh, Luis Diaz from Liverpool, for example.
10:19
So plus 1400, uh, take a shot there. I like that. All right. And then Canada, you see them advancing. Yeah, so they're in Argentina's group. So Argentina's gonna advance.
10:28
So it likely comes down to Chile or Canada for that second spot. Both teams have new managers. You know, we're a little uncertain what we're gonna get there.
10:36
I think Chile is the better team, but Chile is minus 140 to advance, and Canada is plus 200. So they've got plenty of high-end talent, like Alphonso Davies of Bayern Munich. So again, it's plus 200 for a reason.
10:46
But at that price, I like them to get out of Group A. All right, that's Group A. Group B, you have a play to advance. Ecuador plus 160 to win the group outright. Uh, this is a fade of Mexico. Oh, to win it. Yeah, okay.
10:57
Sorry. Mexico's been kind of a mess for the last couple years. I think Ecuador is just the better team. And Mexico actually has a shorter price, but I like Ecuador plus 160. Really solid in the back half.
11:07
A little questioned about where their goals are coming from, but I think they're better than Mexico, so give me that price to win the group. First, second in Group C. Uruguay, USA are the two best teams by far.
11:17
Uh, the biggest discrepancy in any group. Uruguay is better than the US. US is way better than Panama and Bolivia. Plus 125 for the, basically the exacta to advance. The exacta of Uruguay and the USA.
11:26
And then Group D to have zero points, you have a play. Costa Rica is just terrible. Their golden generation is gone. They're way worse than any of these other teams. I'd be shocked if they get a point.
11:35
So plus 275 at zero points is really good. Wow, very anti-Costa Rica. Very interesting. Sorry. All right. Thank you, Paul. Enjoy all of it. I will. Thank you.
11:44
He's got a million things to write for Fox Sports in the next few days, so he's got to get to it. We'll come back, NBA MVP next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
Back on a numbers game, live from Bar Canada, the D. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, thanks so much for, uh, allowing us to be part of your morning each and every morning.
12:09
We get tweets at Beating the Book primetime, Cowboys_Cubs1.
12:13
Uh-I'm sorry, the NFL's Comeback, uh, excuse me, Comeback Player of the Year Award's new language of, quote, other circumstances, unquote, leaves ample room for the greatest reason of all, spite.
12:23
Russell Wilson's benching by Gilly's favorite coach, Super Bowl winner Sean Payton, due to Wilson's contract was beautiful spite. So he's, uh, he's not 100% convinced on that. JasonH11, uh, let's see.
12:35
I'm 50 years old, he says. Minus 250 odds Matt does the, uh, pitching wedge challenge before my 75th birthday. [laughs] And then, uh, Corbin, morning guys. Curious if you can't get Andy...
12:46
If you cannot get Andy McNeil on the show, that I'd be willing to be the replacement and go to Edmonton for a real interview. No? Uh, didn't think so.
12:53
He said also, uh, thoughts on Raonic being a slight dog to, uh, Fritz today. Like him after the last performance. He's, he's accurately priced as a slight dog.
13:02
I mean, again, if he's a serve bot and you just can't return it, that's one thing. But Taylor Fritz himself has a great serve, and all he has to do is figure out a way to, uh, break him once in each of those.
13:14
So they, Taylor Fritz is the better tennis player overall. It's just that Raonic has the, uh, the secret hack of if he has 47 aces again, you can Katie bar the door. Um, but, uh, that's properly priced, I think.
13:26
Rick Ollier, in honor of the NFL's clarification, perhaps the MLB can follow suit. Uh, Major League Baseball can follow suit.
13:32
Something along the lines of Cy Young should be given to any pitcher that has demonstrably better stats than Blake Snell, as long as they do not show up against the Pi- uh, excuse me, do not blow up, pardon me, against the Pirates, uh, late in the season.
13:45
Yeah, I know. I know. Uh, before we get to the NBA MVP, um, did wanna mention the passing of Willie Mays, of course, and this is on the heels of Jerry West passing away.
13:57
So two greats in two of our most beloved sports, um, in such a short period of time. Willie Mays passing away at the age of 93. By those, by, by most of those who saw him play, the greatest player of all time.
14:11
Um, Kelly, you and I are both too young to have ever watched, uh, Willie Mays play baseball, but the, uh, the breadth of the, of the stats is just unbelievable for the Say Hey Kid. Obviously, 660 home runs.
14:25
Finished when he retired as the third most home runs in the history of baseball. Obviously, Hank Aaron and Babe Ruth, those, uh, two above him. Uh, now sixth on that list.
14:36
Um, but so many, uh, so many other just amazing things. Uh, MVP twice, 1954 and 1965. 24 times an All-Star. 24. In 22 seasons. I learned that this morning.
14:49
They used to p- uh, apparently back in the day, they had, uh, seasons where there were two All-Star games in a year. Oh, is that right? Yeah. Oh, wow. So 24 All-Star Game appearances in 22 years.
14:59
He also, I mean, he was MVP in 1954, had to miss the 1953 season because of the Korean War, so imagine that. Uh, could've been even greater stats. 12 times Gold Glove. Twice the MVP, as I've mentioned.
15:11
Uh, Rookie of the Year in 1951. Won the 1954 World Series with the New- then New York Giants. Uh, and was inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1979, so think about that.
15:21
He has been a living member of the Hall of Fame for, had, had been for 45 years- That's incredible... uh, before his passing.
15:29
In 1954, of course, the iconic moment of Willie Mays' career, the game one of the World Series, uh, for the Giants.
15:35
He makes the over-the-shoulder catch on Vic Wertz's fly ball into center field, and then he throws the ball back, keeps the runners at first and second.
15:43
It was a two to two game, which the Giants ended up winning in extra innings and went on to win the, uh, the World Series. He was a, uh, a permanent fixture at Giants games.
15:52
For those of us who spent time, uh, so much time in San Francisco, not only is there a statue of Willie Mays outside the ballpark in San Francisco that everyone has taken a picture of with, uh, but he would be there at all the games.
16:03
Uh, and he would be there, sadly, for many of these past years in a wheelchair. Um, and you know, it was real sad to see that, uh,
16:12
that Major League Baseball's tribute to the Negro Leagues event at Rickwood Field in Birmingham was going to take place, or is going to take place tomorrow.
16:20
And this was, you know, this was where Willie Mays began his baseball journey at the age of 17, playing for the Birmingham Black Barons, and he announced a few days ago that he wasn't gonna be able to make it.
16:31
That might've been sort of our, uh, our, our note that, you know, maybe things were, were going south for Willie Mays in terms of his health, 'cause that would've been just unbelievably special.
16:43
Um, and then, you know, this is sort of the thing that you look at, you look back at just some of these other things that we can't possibly comprehend, Kelly, not having been there in those years.
16:54
But first of all, let me just say this stat. You know how many double plays he hit into in 24 years? The ultimate five- How many? The ultimate five-tool player, right? Just defense. Uh, he just... It, but speed also.
17:08
Grand total of 45 double plays in 24 years. That's incredible. It's just incredible. That's all he hit into in 24 years of baseball. Um, but it's, it's interesting just l- going back.
17:18
1947, Jackie Robinson, uh, broke the so-called color barrier, uh, in Major League Baseball.
17:24
Integration happened, and when we think of Jackie Robinson, not when we think of him, but what we're told by history, and accurately so, is that his career was obviously marred by a lot, you know, complete, um, hatred in many respects.
17:40
And, you know, he, he couldn't have been more dignified on the baseball field. Mm-hmm.
17:43
But we know that part and parcel with his career, and Branch Rickey knowing that Jackie Robinson was the guy to do this, was that, uh, ultimately because of Jackie Robinson's unbelievable dignified nature, he would be able to endure this.
17:57
Uh, it's un- it's... We can't imagine what that must have been like and the hatred that he took. But four years later, when Willie Mays made his Major League Baseball debut,
18:10
do you know how, you know how many, you know what, uh, number Of, uh, you know how many n- uh, African American baseball players had been in baseball? So Jackie Robinson, the first in 1947.
18:20
Willie Mays in 1951 was only the 10th- It's incredible. Jeez... was only the 10th African American player in Major League Baseball, and none of that which is, was associated, the, the, some of the, the horrible,
18:35
um, you know, nature of Jackie Robinson's integration into Major League Baseball, none of that do we associate with Willie Mays four months late, uh, four years later, which is o- obviously a, a good thing.
18:47
Um, and part and parcel with that, the, the, you know, you, when you watch the retrospectives is he was just such a... First of all, the world had moved on four years. That's first and foremost, but
19:00
he was just as lovable as a player.
19:02
The way he played the game, it, it was, you couldn't possibly, you couldn't possibly treat this man, um, with any kind of just horrible behavior that you had been treating Jackie Robinson with four years later.
19:18
Um, because the talent and the joy with which he played the game and the, and the, the just absolute tribute that he play- that he paid to the game of baseball on a daily basis, it was just, um, you know, look, for those of us who grew up, now we have our sense of...
19:31
You were, we were talking about this off air. Who, who do you think was the greatest ballplayer of all time? Is it Ken Griffey Jr.? Is it Barry Bonds? You know, that's who we grew up on.
19:39
But for, for the old-timers, there is no debating that it was Willie Mays. Willie Mays passing away at the age of 93. Ch- uh, forever giant, as we say in San Francisco, for the great Willie Mays. Um,
19:53
no artful transition to this, but the NBA MVP from a betting standpoint, which we had, uh, teased in the past segment, uh, Nikola Jokic wins his third in four years.
20:04
And as you look down, remember now, they didn't give it to him three years in a row, Kelly.
20:08
The only people, the only, the only players to have won NBA MVP three years in a row, Bill Russell '61, '62 and '63, Wilt Chamberlain in 1966, '67, and '68, and Larry Joe Bird in '84, '85 and '86.
20:22
Three in four years, that has been done by a few others, including LeBron James, for instance, uh, including Magic Johnson. They have won three MVPs in four years. So Nikola Jokic at least joins that list.
20:37
Can he do four in five? He is the short shot to do so at plus 350. Luka Dončić is plus 370, just a tick longer than Jokic. Joel Embiid plus 550, Shai is six to one, and Giannis is plus 650.
20:52
Everybody else, starting with Anthony Edwards, is at 12 to one. What do you think? Wemby. Wemby. [laughs] 40 to one- I'm just di-... at DraftKings I mean, I think me and you are on the same pa- Yep... page here.
21:02
I'm not missing out on this ever. Yeah. But I, whenever this happens, 'cause it will eventually happen, I'm not missing out on it. Um, and yes, I think even in year two it is time to, uh,
21:13
uh, start nibbling away at these. And, and look, we, as we always say with, uh, awards bets like this, the NBA season's very long.
21:19
[laughs] It just ended, uh, what, two days ago, and we're talking about MVP for next season that won't be announced for 11 months. I'm okay having this bet in my account, though. I don't think this number, uh, uh, I...
21:31
This off-season, it's not gonna get any longer. And if you look around at books right now, I mean dra- from what I saw yesterday, DraftKings has by far the best number up.
21:39
Um, I mean, there was, it was mainly around 20s, the couple books in, here, here in Vegas that had it up.
21:44
Um, so I, I mean, I think if you got availability to s- uh, Wemby anything in the 30s, 40s right now, I think, uh, it's a good one to sna- uh, to grab. The other, these other numbers are interesting.
21:55
I mean, I think Jokic deserves to be the short shot.
21:58
Um, Luka, that much shorter than Embiid's a little interesting to me, but if you, you could just say, hey, injury concerns, and yeah, I understand, um, that probably that, that separation should be built in.
22:09
My boy Giannis is probably, I don't wanna say he's too long. I don't think there should be four guys ahead of him, I, I'll put it that way, including Shai. Um, and like there's, the...
22:21
Feel however you wanna feel about Anthony Edwards, I can't get there yet on him making that huge next leap at, at 12 to one. Tatum,
22:28
like, I don't mean to dunk on the guy for just winning a championship, but didn't we just see this play out last year where like- They wouldn't even give him the NBA Finals MVP Like, I'm not be- I'm not betting him at 16 to one in this market.
22:37
I like Wemby young at that number. Get your Wemby bets in. Yeah. Only two players to win MVP in the NBA four out of five years, which is what Jokic is trying to do, Bill Russell and LeBron James. Wow.
22:47
Jason Weingart next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Next week we're releasing our VSiN NFL betting guide.
22:57
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23:06
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23:13
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23:25
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23:37
That is vsin.com/subscribe. Get there now. Use promo code ANG. It's Gil Alexander, it is Kelly Bidlin. Um, we get tweets @BeatingTheBook. Always appreciate the, uh, tweets. Actually, you know what?
23:51
I wanna save this for Jason, because this goes right into a question for Jason. I wanna, before we get to Jason, I wanna give a, uh, you know how we usually give documentary recommendations here, Kelly?
23:59
I'd like to give you a documentary recommendation to not watch a documentary. How about that? Wait, did you watch more of this yesterday? No, no. I, yes. Okay. I ended up watching the whole thing. Oh my God.
24:08
[laughs] Yes. It's- You said yesterday it was terrible. I know, but I had to finish it. [laughs] I have a problem Um, God, is it on- I don't these days, by the way.
24:17
E- if I put on a movie or something and I'm like, "This sucks," like- Well-... 30 minutes into it, I immediately bail... you're better than me, 'cause I, I, I started watching it Sunday night.
24:26
Sunday night was the night where there was no NBA and there was no NHL, right? And baseball does this stupid thing where they, like, lock into just one Sunday night game.
24:34
It's like, could we have a West Coast game too, for God's sake? Mm-hmm. Um, so I'm like, okay, let me see what's on, and I stumbled on Hulu. The first thing that came up was the Brat Pack documentary.
24:45
Are you familiar with the Brat Pack? The '80s- Yep...
24:47
when, uh, for those of us who grew up in that time, when, uh, you know, Hollywood shifted to youth culture and like, oh my God, we're gonna do movies all around the you- and, uh, the, uh, the youths.
24:58
Um, and so you had this, uh, what was referred to in a New York... Was it a New York Times or whatever?
25:03
I can't remember the magazine, but somebody wrote an article, um, calling, you know, the group of actors that were super successful at that time, young actors, the Emilio Estevez, Rob Lowe, Demi Moore, Andrew McCarthy group of actors, uh, Molly Ringwald, as the Brat Pack, play on the old Rat Pack of, uh, of, uh, Frank Sinatra and Sammy Davis fame.
25:24
And this was a documentary made by Andrew McCarthy, one of the Brat Pack members, talking about how his kind of career was ruined by this article and how it affected him for the rest of his life.
25:41
And I was just like, okay, the premise is a little, uh... Was the Brat- the Brat Pack was huge. Don't get me wrong. Were they this huge to have a documentary on? Maybe. Okay. But then, like, you could see- Well-...
25:52
when he talked to, he was, like, talking to Demi Moore- Yeah... he was talking to Rob Lowe present day, and then he actually talks to the, uh, to the guy who wrote the article. But he, but it- They did just fine...
25:59
but essentially Demi Moore and Rob Lowe, without telling him, were like, "Yeah, you know, it affected me for a little while, but we're cool." Right.
26:04
[laughs] 'Cause their careers were a- and- I mean, like, d- was his whole point that he felt like he had become typecasted, like that sort of thing? That's, yes, and the big- And couldn't break out of that?
26:12
The biggest thing was that he was offended that this article, by calling them the Brat Pack, reduced how serious they were about their craft, and that therefore directors like Scorsese, for instance, would never have considered him for a role kind of thing.
26:29
Gotcha. Don't watch it. That's all you had to hear. I was like, "Emilio." Jason Weingarten joins us from under a cloud of smoke somewhere in Southern California. He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive guest line.
26:38
How you doing, Jason? Pretty good. How's it going? Doing very well. You wanna take a listener question here from Twitter? Sure. Please say yes. Uh, Forrest Leamon. Imagine if he was like, "No, I don't, Gil."
26:48
[laughs] Nah, I'm good. "I just wanna hear questions." Uh, Forrest Leamon, "Please, pretty please, with sugar on top, uh, please mention Marcel Ozuna's name with Jason.
26:58
I have him 160 to 1 on MVP, on an MVP ticket on the man who, after Saturday's action, was Triple Crown leader. Zero love for his stellar season. Bring it home. What do you think about Marcel Ozuna of the Braves?"
27:13
Good question. Um, I actually looked at him. That's a better number than I even saw. I looked at him, he was 120 to 1 a couple weeks ago before he broke out, I guess, whatever.
27:25
And I was like, wow, 120 to 1, I should, I should really bet that. But it's Marcel Ozuna, he's not gonna win. I'm not gonna throw money away, so I skipped it.
27:33
Here he is now, actually a legitimate contender, and I don't have a ticket on him, so I'm kind of annoyed by that. But end of the day, I don't think he's gonna win, short of actually maybe winning the Triple Crown.
27:48
Um, you have the whole domestic violence thing, you know. I- I was just gonna bring it up. Yep.
27:52
I was gonna say, like, like, it's just that when you get voting awards, stuff like that definitely makes an impact at, at the end of the day. Um, it just does, you know? There's nothing else you can say about it.
28:03
It's a voting award. And then it's just sort of a matter of fact he's a DH.
28:08
If they're not gonna win the division, then you still have a hard time convincing me that he's that much better than Bryce Harper, and you still have, you, you know, a hard time convincing me he's better than Shohei Ohtani, um, even when you put the stats in front of me.
28:20
So, um, good number, good process. Uh, don't think you're gonna get a winner, though. Yeah, 20 homers, 63 RBI, and, uh, 320 batting average. Those are the leaders. But- Yeah... he is a contender.
28:34
I mean, at this point you can't knock that he is a legitimate contender and things, you know, things have broken that way.
28:39
But also, uh, real quick, speaking of the Braves, remember we were talking about the make/miss the playoff number? Yes.
28:46
FanDuel has the Braves no playoffs at 11 to 1, so they're actually saying it's higher now, even with all the injuries and Acuna and no Strider. They're, they're telling me I can come back and bet it at 11 to 1 now.
29:00
Well, they do have a, I mean, when you look at the loss column, they have a nice cushion still. So they still do have a cushion, but yeah, now Michael Harris on the IL as well, so.
29:09
Um, the Ozuna thing, let me just wrap it up with this. I- is it as simple as saying, we've, we've done this with other award bets in the, in the past,
29:19
that anything short of a Triple Crown, no chance given the off-the-field stuff. But if he wins the Triple Crown, does that somehow trump that in voters' minds, would you think? Uh, some, yes.
29:34
It's still just a matter of fact that having a, a guy who, who has a domestic violence conviction win MVP just is, is bad for business, as I say. Yeah. Yeah.
29:44
Um- Even as I say it, like, I'm thinking about a new listener who drops on this show for the first time. They're like, "Wow, how callous are these people?"
29:49
We talk through a betting lens, and so we're just talking about, like, the minds of award voters. Would that just, would, would that be the line that causes them to lose that, um, that moral compass, if you will?
30:05
Yeah, but I mean, it's also a Triple Crown. I mean, you, you... If, if it's not a Triple Crown, you can just put the stats from Ohtani up next to him. Yeah.
30:11
Be like, well, Shohei Ohtani did this and this and this, and then Shohei Ohtani, you know, give him the MVP, whatever. Um, if it's Triple Crown, you at least have to have some think piece articles about the-
30:24
You know, the, the questionable morality of voting for Marcel Ozuna Well said. You at least have to have the think piece articles about it. Um, you bet anything in baseball today, by the way? Uh, not yet actually.
30:36
Still, uh, still looking for something to bet. It's, uh, it's a bummer 'cause we got a whole bunch of day games, but, uh, I do not have anything other, other than a couple totals that already moved overnight.
30:45
By the way, Florida just with a gl- a grand slam against Kentucky, seven to one, Gators, after trailing one to nothing here early in this ball game. [laughs] Uh, but, uh, is this still the first inning, Kelly?
30:57
Yeah, first inning. Bottom of the first, one-up Seven to one, Florida, in an elimination game at the College World Series. You don't bet College World Series at all, do you, Jason? Rarely.
31:05
Um, I've never, ever had a lot of success with college baseball, and I don't enjoy the, you know, the, the scoring going up as the game gets towards the end.
31:16
And, you know, it's not like the better pitchers are coming in later. It's, it's just the, the, the randomness. It's, it's fun to watch, terrible to bet on. Uh, do we have a Rose Zhang bet on the horizon, sir?
31:28
Uh, I mean, just a normal bet. Like, I'd always make a bet on her. I'd rather have a bet on her than not have a bet on her, but, uh, don't, don't have any clear insight into, to the event this week.
31:38
Uh, maybe not having a golfer with a lead is gonna be the way to go this week. Oh, can you walk us through that? [laughs] Can you walk us through the Grace Kim saga? No, not... I mean, I can't really walk you through it.
31:49
She just didn't, she had a five-shot lead going into the final round, and she didn't close. It was the largest lead going into a final round on the, the LPGA all season. Um, but it's just kinda like a horse.
32:01
You know, women love being compared to horses, but, uh, you know, it's just the horse gets too far out in the race, too far ahead, you know it's not gonna win.
32:10
Like, it just, just, you know, like, had it two weeks in a row now. Yeah. So- Oh... maybe, maybe not get out to those big, big leads.
32:18
Was, uh, Grace Kim hanging out with Heather Watson by any chance, uh, yesterday, my tennis player? It's just the, ugh, the br- I forgot last weekend, Jason. I, I remember I, I knew you had Grace Kim.
32:28
I forgot about Soderberg the week before already. Oh my gosh, that is a- Wait, what was the week before again? I mean, I've, I've forgotten about it. He had an eight-shot lead, and- Oh my God. Yeah.
32:37
Even, even worse really. I mean, that was a, that- That's one of the worst bad beats, like, I've ever seen in golf... Jason, what's going on in your personal life that all this is happening to you?
32:44
What are you doing wrong? What's going on? W- w- wish I knew, man. Everything, everything else going good. Got the claw machine up and getting that up and running.
32:52
Oh, [laughs] that's the- Make, gonna make some money off that. Got some- Still got the claw machine. Yeah. Where's it going, Jason? Have we found a, a place to rent it out to yet or anything?
32:59
I'm involving myself in this conversation. Working on that. We're, we're, we're getting there. It's getting, we're getting all the, the specifics, you know, worked out, but it's, uh, it's gonna be a money maker.
33:06
I'm real excited about it. Okay. Thank you for that. I'll come back. Kelly on the Travelers on the other side. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:13
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on our Numbers Game, live from Bar Canada at the D, downtown Las Vegas, Nevada.
33:29
It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Billingsley. Kelly is, uh, going on a vacation to Austin, Texas, heading into the tropical storm. How long are you gonna be there for? I'll be there for five days. Wow.
33:39
You and your buddies. Right in the middle of bad weather. They're all freaking out, texting me. [laughs] I'd be freaking... I mean, I'd be freaking out just the nature of do we really wanna do this kind of,
33:49
kind of conversation. I, I mean, it's... I, well, well, you know, we're, you're also dealing with, uh, you know, veterans here is when it comes to trop- tropical storms, so I don't think- Oh, South Florida guys?
33:59
Yeah, yeah. Oh, yeah. It's nothing for you guys, right? So we're kind, I mean, we're kind of laughing about that, but the, like, the, I mean, the flights.
34:04
Like, I think this thing's supposed to, it's supposed to hit, like, tomorrow. Like, we're all flying in tomorrow. [laughs] I don't know how it's gonna screw up flights. And what a boondoggle of a trip if that's...
34:12
I mean, for, the, all- Yeah, yeah... the, what, you know, danger aside, right? Right. That's obviously the first thing for people there. Yes, obviously it is.
34:19
But for your trip, it's like, that's half, the half of your trip- Everything's booked... half of your trip could suck. It's like air- I mean, Airbnb and flights are paid for and everything.
34:27
Like, what are you doing, you know? Yeah, but what's the line where you're like, "Well, let's change this"? 'Cause part of it's refundable, right? Or changeable anyway. Yeah, I'd have to look. Yeah.
34:36
I mean, flights are worse. You're not changing it. I mean, fli- You guys are going. It's already, it's too much work, I can tell already. Yeah, a little bit. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. Okay. Who's it?
34:43
I don't really know how that stuff works though with, like, Airbnb and stuff. I bet, I bet you once you've paid there, I bet- Oh, Airbnb? Yeah, probably, so. Yeah. Who's it, Wyatt's in next week? Wyatt's in next week.
34:52
Dus- And? Dustin will be here on Friday. Friday, Dustin Sweetolson. Oh my God, once again, the college campuses will be erupt in protest as Dustin and I do a show together. Is that allowed?
35:02
[laughs] Um, by the way, also on Friday on the show, tomorrow Crack, obviously, unscripted, Friday on the show on the desk with me and Dustin, Steve Fezzik for a few, uh, segments.
35:14
One of the things I will ask Fezzik about, he posted a picture of his first trip to Vegas back in the '80s. Uh, young Steve Fezzik, so I guess that's what that- No way. Oh, yeah. On Twitter? Yeah. I gotta check this out.
35:23
Sure did. All right, travel- I i- I imagine his hair is exactly the same way. Yes. The, he has not lost one strand of hair. Great, great head of hair. That head of hair was made for TV. Needs to be on more.
35:36
Could you imagine if they had Twitter then, how angry he would've been on Twitter if he was a young guy doing this stuff? I don't know. Would he? Oh my God, he'd probably be worse if he were younger, right?
35:46
I feel like, I feel like- Or you think he's got older... we needed the times to, to, to move on for us all to get so angry, and then have an outlet. Maybe. And then that just anger us more. Maybe. Maybe.
35:56
Uh, we'll talk to him about that, see what, uh, uh, his thoughts are on his first trip and beyond. Of course, all the, uh, the hedging stuff that we talked about with Rufus yesterday. Get Steve's thoughts on that.
36:04
Obviously Steve, uh, has been no stranger to laying big numbers on certain bets as well, and, uh, some have not gone his way. So we'll get his thoughts on that. Um, you, sir, have thoughts on the Travelers this week.
36:17
Yeah, Travelers. Uh, third elevated field in a, in a week. Um, they're gonna have to redo the schedule. I know the Memorial's already, uh, complained. I, I like the, I like the elevated event leading into the major.
36:30
The week after the major just feels like everybody should get a week off, you know? [laughs] Like, fans, players, bettors, everybody. I, that's, but that's an interesting question. Do you think they considered that?
36:40
I, y- oh, I think they did because, uh, the way the elevated events are arranged this year. Yeah...
36:44
um, I think every major's had one, yeah, e- every major's had one either leading into it, leading out of it, or the US Open's had one on both sides of it. Um- Right, but I think you're right about the leading out of it.
36:56
Like, it is- Yeah... a little, like, a l- bit of a letdown sort of thing.
36:58
I mean, they, after the Masters, they went to, I think that was RBC Heritage, so th- and then PGA, they had the one before, which I kind of like that 'cause it's kind of like the undercard. Yeah. Right?
37:07
It's like, kind of like- Right... a big undercard fight leading to the next week where you get a major. But this feels almost forced, in a way. I, that's where I agree.
37:14
I mean, Travelers is a, so th- we get a limited field. This is one of the few- 60... where it is 71, uh, guys, no cut. 6,835 yards. Short, right? Yeah, short course. Yeah. Short course.
37:24
Uh, this is, uh, one of the most popular tournaments on tour. You get a lot of people that fr- you know, from New York go up into Connecticut, uh, for this.
37:31
This is, I, I, I believe it is the second, uh, highest attendance on tour outside of the Waste Management Phoenix Open every year. So this is big-time tournament. They turned it into an elevated one.
37:42
They don't have a player like Tiger attached to it, so there is no cut. 71 players you're gonna get, so just keep that in mind for everything when you're looking at, you know, odds overall.
37:52
Yes, odds are going to look shorter to you because there is a smaller field. Um, keep it in mind for match-ups, you know, top 10s, top 20s.
38:01
Uh, you know, if you're getting those match-ups home by getting a guy through the cut line and another guy getting cut, uh, that stuff all moves around, uh, when you get these elevated events.
38:09
I tend to bet less tournament match-ups because of that and will focus more kind of top 20, top 10 markets. Um, Gil. Yes, sir. This was a tough tou- this was a tough tournament to handicap.
38:21
I'm gonna start with some bets that I like my, my placement, uh, finishing position markets. Top 10, going right back to Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa. I'm not gonna stop.
38:32
Morikawa just missed out on the top 10 last week, but you're t- but this is a field that doesn't have Bryson DeChambeau, does not have Rory McIlroy. I l- I love him.
38:41
Three straight courses in a row, too, by the way, were premium off accuracy off the tee over distance, in my opinion, although if you look at that leaderboard after last week, you could probably argue back with me that distance did matter a little bit more.
38:53
Um, I love Schauffele and Morikawa this week. Morikawa's on an absolute roll right now. Schauffele has cashed in, uh, 10 of thir- [laughs] 10 top 10s this year and 13 times teeing it up. Going right back to that one.
39:05
Ones I really like this week in the top 20 market, Russell Henley, Corey Conners, and then there is Sepp Straka. I'm on him, uh, as well.
39:12
To- Conners top 20 in last four of five events, rated out really high for me this week. Actually came up, like, third in a couple models that I ran. Great iron play, great tee to green, um, in his last five starts.
39:23
T9 here last year as well. Uh, Sepp Straka, man, he's had, if you take away the US Open and you take away the PGA, he's had five top 20 fi- finishes dating back to the Masters.
39:33
[laughs] But he's had some miscuts in there as well. He's had an odd, an odd season. You too with Sepp Straka. Yeah, so I'm- Yeah... on him as well. I mean, the, the accuracy off the tee has been incredible.
39:41
He's to- one of the top guys in the field in that category, and then the approach play, uh, very, very solid. So I am on a top 20 bet. I do like him this week, um, there.
39:50
And then Russell Henley, I, I, I, Russell Henley I've got a tou- tough time betting, but I am on him this week. Just feels like one of those guys I never get right sort of thing. Uh, top 20 this week, though.
40:00
Hasn't been gaining a ton off the tee, but again, you don't really have to be so long here, just gotta be accurate. T- uh, last two times at the course, did finish T19 in both of those starts as well.
40:11
Um, so four top 20 finishes in his last seven events, all of them elevated events or majors that he was playing in, so like him in the top 20 market.
40:19
Um, and then real quick, tournament match-ups, Corey Conners over Fittipaldi, Sepp Straka over Shane Lowry.
40:24
Um, and then I played a couple four balls too, but kind of a- uh, isolating these guys I had pl- uh, finishing position bets on.
40:31
Now, if we get to the outright market, I, I, usually what I do is kind of look at everything at once, Gil.
40:36
I had to look at the outright market multiple times and separate it from what I was gonna do with match-ups and finishing positions because the Scottie Scheffler number, I can't get beyond this.
40:46
It's, he, it's, he is right. This is a course that you're, you know, distance isn't exactly at a premium, so that takes away one, you know, one aspect of the, his game that he's great at.
40:56
But, you know, he's still great everywhere else. But, uh- What do you make of his US Open performance? Probably we shouldn't just, like, glance over- Sure... you know, gloss over that. It was, I mean, it wasn't great.
41:04
He was clearly frustrated, but he was frustrated by those greens. He still finished top 10 in the field tee to green. It was just the putter action again. Yeah.
41:11
So you're telling me a week later we're going back, we're, we're going [laughs] back to the well with him at a, at a course where he's played well before. The field is smaller.
41:22
There's no Bryson DeChambeau or Rory McIlroy, and I'm getting a long m- a longer number than I got at the US Open, longer number than we've seen in a few weeks on him.
41:31
And over four to one, I couldn't, I, it messed with my head yesterday. I didn't really plan on betting Scottie Scheffler this week, but at that number, I, I think it's a bet f- or it is a bet for me.
41:41
Uh, plus 415 here at Circa, but there's four to one around the country at MGM. Uh, bet him. Keegan won this p- w- won this last year. I bet on him three weeks in a row. [laughs] I'm not getting off him now.
41:51
Uh, Matsuyama, same sort of thing. He continues to ra- rate out high for me. Think he could have a good week, so bet him as well. And then Brian Harman was the one that, man, he's another guy just I don't get right.
42:02
Either I bet on him and he's terrible, or I bet against him and he plays really well.
42:06
But this number for a guy that's had a lot of really good finishes at this event, uh, man, this is a long number for, uh, for a guy that obviously won the Open, uh, Open last year, 45 to one, played there.
42:18
So all kind of smaller outright plays on those longer shots for me, and then Sc- Scheffler at over four to one. Uh, but really, as usual, most of my money tied up top 10s, top 20s. I'm gonna have a Scheffler bet.
42:28
I just know I am. I, I, I, it's, uh, it was a c- it was a principle bet for me this week. [laughs] Like, I don't, I don't get this number compared to what we saw last week.
42:37
Travelers Championship, TPC River Highlands in Cromwell, Connecticut, uh, beginning tomorrow. Uh, hope you, uh, played Victoria Golubic at, uh, plus 225. She is up a set. They are on serve in the second set.
42:51
Kelly, what could possibly go wrong? For you, nothing. [laughs] That's right. For me, pssh, nothing.
42:56
I can't believe, I, like, bravo to Jason for having such a good attitude about those couple, the golf beats he took two weeks in a row, 'cause that is- Listen, this is what I was, I was allu- Those are the bad beats that people don't shut up about...
43:08
I was alluding to this with Rufus yesterday. I alluded to it after the March, April way we lost all the guardians.
43:15
If you've been doing this long enough, it is amazing the, the w- the term I used yesterday was the scar tissue you build up. Mm-hmm.
43:23
And I actually told some folks a- after that, I was like, I was amazed at how well I took that loss, just like Jason is taking those two, just how Rufus was taking this one.
43:35
But it's because we've been doing this for our- Yeah... entire adult lives. And I do worry about some folks who are just in it for the, for the first time now who experience these things. It, it takes a while to build.
43:49
It takes a while. Yep, yep. 'Cause it, it, they never get easy, but you do develop a sort of numbness to it. One of the few things I s- I say poker background helps with sports betting. Yeah. We've done all we can do.
44:00
Enjoy from VSA, the Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music]
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