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Jun 20, 2024
A Numbers Game | June 20, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | June 20, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:34
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story, they always do. One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:11
It is the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. Buttoning up his shirt. Pardon me, pardon me.
0:21
A brief, brief button-up, Kelly. Alexander- Kelly Bidlin... I was having shirt struggles this morning too. Where? See, like, the col- the collar's a little weird today. I don't know.
0:29
The issue is where the laptop hits the television screen and- Yeah, you always have the same issue. Yeah. I got dry cleaner issues. [laughs] What's wrong with the dry cleaner?
0:37
I don't know, like stuff comes back from the dry cleaner and I'm like, "Why is this, like, collar, like, pressed differently?" Or something like that. It's just weird. Oh, man.
0:45
Um, I hope you get through, I, I hope you get through it. Yeah, I'll try. I'll try. Okay. I'll try. Kelly's- It's, like, beyond first world problems, right now.
0:51
[laughs] Kelly's, uh, last day before he goes on a little vacation here, uh, on the show today. Zackin Crack, Zach Cohen on the, uh, on the tennis world and all his picks. NBA draft, six days away.
1:03
He's got thoughts, he's got bets on that. Matt Grissom will be here to talk College World Series with us. And of course, uh, Crack himself, unscripted with Crack Man Bill Krackenberg.
1:12
Speaking of the College World Series, Kelly, um, this might be a good moment in time because the theme of this, I don't know, not, not the sole theme, but one of the themes of this show, uh, it seems like over the course of this week was, we talked with Rufus about the scar tissue of bettors, and I often talk about overcoming negative variance in your betting.
1:35
Um, FSU goes down. They lose to Tennessee. Our futures go down. Boo. Uh, I had FSU at 35 to one. They were terrible yesterday, by the way. They had base running errors, left it wide- That was awful...
1:45
they were, they were just terrible. Um, but that check swing that wasn't called back in the previous part of this bracket- What, that makes a difference, Gil?
1:56
Maybe the complete difference in the entire thing, 'cause if they win that game, right, even if they have that terrible game yesterday, they got Jamie Arnold on the hill today, their ace going up against Tennessee for a chance to get to the, uh, College World Series final, best of three, which ends up being Tennessee versus Texas A&M.
2:13
Uh, so congratulations to those who have those, uh, tickets still there. But you know, that check swing is just one of those things where you just have to eat it as a bettor, right?
2:23
You're just like, "Well, it happened," and that's that and we'll never know. Doesn't guarantee they would've gotten to the finals- Right, of course, yeah... but we'll never know.
2:30
They were set up beautifully, let's put it that way.
2:32
And so it got me to thinking because that juxtaposed with a relentless stretch of women's tennis here in the last three days, where we're on the cusp of hitting at least two big dogs, if not three, and they all go by the wayside.
2:46
It just occurred to me, why don't we do a little... 'Cause I don't, it, we don't often do this, but when you get in a stretch like this and when you talk about overcoming negative variance, we're all human.
2:55
I wanna just, uh, uh, put my money where my mouth is on this. Remember Drew Dinsick, our, you know, our, our buddy Drew, who's, he, he hit Jannik Sinner in the Australian Open and he hit the Celtics in the NBA finals.
3:07
But remember, everything in between he was getting destroyed, and he was in this awful rut, and I just felt bad for Drew as he was doing it.
3:14
So we just decided, uh, or I decided l- last night, this morning, I'm like, "Let me, let me try to think off the top of the dome," like, some of the stuff that we've lost here in the last year or so.
3:25
Now this is, we can go back, right? If you're just landing on this show in the last year or two, like, you, you won't remember Tank-A-Palooza or Swiatek in the French Open or the Washington Nationals or even 2022.
3:37
Let's go to '20- let's go as far back as a year and a half to two and a half years ago. 2022, what, what is, uh, what is Trump's line? "We're gonna do so much winning, you're gonna get sick of it."
3:46
[laughs] 2022 was that for us. Um- [laughs] And that was still when, like, let's just get to tennis, we'll start there, right? Swiatek was still, like, plus 750. She was plus 750 in the, uh, in Indian Wells.
3:58
Hit that four times, plus 480, we hit all those. God, that seems so long ago now. It's just, it's just two years ago. Yeah, I know. Swiatek in the Miami Open the next week, plus 450, hit that four times.
4:07
Hit plus 350 two times. So we're just h- 200, plus 180, uh, literally the only one in minus money at minus 107, hit all those. NFL draft, 1370, uh, 13.77 units.
4:18
Remember Derek Stingley going third was the big linchpin there. Um, first quarterback selected and third overall pick. Uh, back when NFL draft, uh, draft betting was prime. Was wonderful.
4:27
[laughs] The French Open that year, right? Swiatek, the most dominant thing in life is her at the French Open. She was plus 450, we hit that three times. NBA title, Warriors plus 550. This is all in 2022.
4:38
NBA draft number one pick, Bunkero, seven to one and six to one. College World Series, Ole Miss, 100 to one. US Open, Swiatek, she won it, seven to one.
4:48
And then the Atlanta Braves, people remember when they were behind the Mets down the stretch of that pennant race in the NL East, hit them at plus money 17 different times.
4:57
2022 was a complete windfall, and the gam- Was that, was that 2022 or last summer? That was 2022. All of that that I just mentioned was 2022, so not last year, the year before. Man, time flies. Okay.
5:09
So it's as if the gambling gods, and this is again, if you're going to be, and I wanna say it while I'm in the moment because, again, I gotta practice this just like anybody else, even if I've been doing it for s- for since the dawn of time.
5:24
You get in these ruts, though. Mm-hmm. And sometimes they stretch, where you're like, "Uh, we, you're not gonna let that happen again, ever, gambling gods?" So no, we've had our wins, right?
5:33
Carolina last winless 15 to one, Iga every which way. We just hit the Iga-Alcaraz, uh, C- you know, Ken yell at the French Open.
5:40
But just- Re- real quick, what's your biggest, what was your biggest single tournament that you won the most on Iga? Like, all time. 2020 French Open. 2020 French Open.
5:47
Even with the one s- spot sh- you know, just absolutely not paying out, it was still the biggest- Right, okay... one thing, yeah. [laughs] Um, I'm sorry, why, did that come up organically?
5:58
[laughs] Uh, so now here are the l- you, you did it, not me. So- It took me a second to. [laughs] It's like, "Where are you going with this?" I was like, "What? What?" Kelly's, like, laying up the softball. Um, okay.
6:07
So, but, but here are, here are, this is the stretch, uh, since then of some of the stuff. Let me go back to one in 2021. Juan Soto NL MVP 150 to one odds in 2021.
6:21
He loses to Bryce Harper in the vote 348 to 274. That's a 151. Yeah, I remember that one. All right, but let's go s- let's go since that 2022 year. Uh, Max Duggan, Heisman, 100 to one.
6:34
He loses, and he should've lost, to Caleb Williams. Uh, the final vote, 2031 to 1420 in terms of the whole vote. [laughs] Okay.
6:41
Spencer Strider, by the way, you remember that last year, he didn't even get to the finals, so we can't even mention that. What a, what a bet on Duggan, though.
6:45
Like, that is one of the-- Like, who would've ever thought he would've been there?
6:48
I'm just telling you, the theme of the last year and a half generally, we've had our wins, but generally is great bets that just don't get there, right? Um, Brock Purdy. Remember Brock Purdy for MVP?
7:03
Got to as m- he got to, people forget, minus 250 before that Baltimore game, and then [laughs] in one fell swoop, done.
7:09
I'm not even saying he deserved to win it, but I'm just saying these were bets that at, at long odds- Mm-hmm... had their moment. Puka Nacua, 25 to one, Offensive Rookie of the Year. We'll never forget that.
7:18
Um, he probably should have lost to C.J. Stroud, 'cause Stroud, any other year, right? 246 to 154- Yeah, I was-... in the vote. That was-- I, I'll almost always say quarterback's gonna have a leg up. Yeah.
7:29
But, but, but- But I'm just, I'm just talking about- No, like Stroud was that good. Yeah. Like, almost any other year, Puka's winning that award.
7:35
I'm just talking about these are like, you have to be able to just endure these, right? Victor Wembanyama, let's get more recent. Victor Wembanyama, uh, 18 to one.
7:42
People had him at way longer than I did, for Defensive Player of the Year. Uh, he loses to Gobert 433 to 245. And I think the entire world, including those that voted for Gobert, have admitted, "Yeah, we got that wrong."
7:53
[laughs] By the way, uh, uh, Damar Hamlin, they're already changing the rules on that, too. Yeah, right. Uh, Guardians, 65 to one, most wins. March, April, famously, one out away. We didn't get there.
8:05
I would argue Guardians in May at 16 to one was even a worse beat, 'cause they went two and five against the White Sox and the Rockies. You're sensing a theme here, right? Uh, FSU 35 to one.
8:14
Check swing might have changed the entire destiny of FSU. Um, and then just, I just want to take the last three days in women's tennis. Can we just do that? The most recent of all, most recent.
8:25
Heather Watson two days ago, uh, plus 180, up five to two in the third set, gacks it. Victoria Golubic yesterday, plus 225, up six-four, five-four on a racket, gacks it.
8:39
Ekaterina Alexandrova this morning, up six-three in the first set tiebreaker against Coco, loses the next five points.
8:46
So I'm just saying, like, at certain points in your sports betting life, if you do this long enough, this is going, maybe not to this degree with all of these plus money bets, that are really long shot bets but are, like, cl- clearly were great by the number but just didn't get there.
9:05
You have to endure it, and you will go through moments where you're like, "I can't take this anymore." Yeah. "I can't take this anymore." It ha- But that's where we are right now.
9:13
I think it happens to me every single NBA season, pretty much.
9:16
[laughs] Like, like, at, at one point in the NBA season, I'm like, "All right, I'm re-" Like, I always hit a hot streak for a co- like, a couple weeks, few weeks. I mean, sometimes it's long.
9:24
Or, or there-- But there's always, like, a two, three-week stretch where you're like, "I'm just getting my face kicked in right now." I, I don't, like...
9:31
And here's the thing, and, uh, we're not mining coal here, so let me, let me just say that up, up front, right? We're sitting at a shield at a corner bar on the second floor of a downtown hotel.
9:39
My grandfather mined coal. [laughs] That's right. Oh, did he? He did. He did. Did he? Yes, he did. He did. Your grandfather mined coal? Yes, in the great mountains of Pennsylvania.
9:46
Uh, my grandfather had it a little more difficult than that, but that's a different story. So anyway, the, uh, the point is, is that-- Where was I going with this? Oh, I don't think our bosses, right?
9:57
I'm not casting dispersions here, but I don't think they get that you in golf, me in tennis, right? We are handicapping this thing daily, right? And then if, if you win, awesome.
10:09
But you're gonna lose, and if you lose in a relentlessly horrific fashion like these. Again, these aren't Purdue at minus 4,500. These are plus money bets that you're- Yeah, yeah...
10:19
you know, you know are long shots, but they're good bets either. I don't think, you know, they get the compartmentalization that has to happen. Then we come in here and, and still, and still knock it out.
10:28
But I'm just saying, because we were talking about, uh, scar tissue with Rufus, um, and I was talking about him versus his brother, and we were talking about, you know, B- Dr.
10:37
Bob, if you ask him, "What's the key to being a successful bettor long term?" He says, "Overcoming negative variance."
10:42
And, um, I don't, you know, it-- The counter to this would be, "Oh, well, those women's tennis matches, you shouldn't, like, you should realize that those girls are all gonna gack it at the end." Well, no, you shouldn't.
10:51
[laughs] You shouldn't, you shouldn't realize that. Like, eventually those are supposed to get home.
10:56
Um, but these are- Like, sure, every one of those matches you could take a small piece of the other side live at plus money, but, like, what's- You could... what are you doing in the long run, like?
11:03
Unless you, unless you're doing a show or, or you're- Or, or that... or you're s- you're, you're- But that's not something you would normally do anyway. No, no, absolutely not. Like, what are we talking about?
11:09
Yeah, yeah. And you wouldn't in those positions either. No. Yeah. Um, anyway, that's our-- I, I, I'm sensitive to the fact, 'cause Wishnev does this every night when he loses a WNBA bet. Yeah.
11:18
But I was just trying to do it over the course of a year, all those long shots that we got so close to.
11:22
I think it's, I think it's a great topic, and it's something that, like, the, the mental side of it you have to be aware of.
11:27
And, like, I, I mean, seriously, this is-- I, I can't remember ever seeing Druish shook as he was- Oh, Druish shook... like, at points this year. Yeah.
11:33
And then, like, Jason yesterday, tell it-- I mean, those back-to-back golf weeks that he had. Brutal. Those are, tho- those singularly are losses bad enough to, like, make you take the rest of the season.
11:43
[upbeat music] And we, uh, we're, we're the ones with the scar tissue. Imagine if you don't have them. We'll come back. Zach Cohen on tennis next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
Next week, we're releasing our NFL betting guide. This guide is your ultimate resource for the football season. That's the football season.
12:07
Packed with detailed team, division, and conference analyses, and of course, best bets for the upcoming NFL season. To get the guide, you gotta be a VSiN Pro subscriber, though.
12:14
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12:23
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12:29
Don't miss your chance to sign up and save ahead of the NFL season. Visit vsin.com/subscribe right now and use promo code ANG to claim your discount and bonus month. ANG like a numbers game?
12:39
A new gift That is vsen.com/subscribe now and use promo code ANG. Gil Alexander, we get tweets at Beating the Book. Brian Moranian. Moriannan. Sorry, Brian. Brian Moriannan.
12:51
Uh, he says, "If Kelly's grandfather went a little further south and mined a certain green clay- [laughs]... he would own the D." [laughs] I could be rich as hell. What the heck? How's your grandfather doing?
13:03
Master of Puppets, great segment right now. Uh, but you did hit Ole Miss at 100 to one. Oh, we mentioned that, for 2022. Chris Heath, Kelly so much more than a producer today.
13:12
The West Gate scandal, Gil's grandfather, it's all in there. Kelly just serving it up. Just serving it up.
13:17
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he's part of the Zack and Crack, uh, duo that rivals Hall and Oates for, uh, top, top 10 smashes over the years.
13:25
Uh, Zach Cohen, VSen senior writer, who joins us, uh, bettingonx is his Twitter handle courtesy of the progressive guest line. How you doing, Zach? Doing well. How about you guys?
13:33
Well, you know, besides cacking tennis matches of plus 180 and plus 225 and plus 160, I can't think of anything else. How about you? How are you doing? Doing well.
13:44
I've been having some fun with this, uh, grass season so far.
13:47
I mean, I do have an Alcaraz parlay in right now, and it looks like he's about to lose to Draper, but at the same time, right after the French Open, I wrote up a Wimbledon preview and I gave out Draper at 100 to one.
13:56
I think now he's down to 40 to one. Do you think he's live to win? In other words, I got a question from, uh, I think it was Felika yesterday. Yes.
14:03
He was like, "You think Draper, y- do, do you think Draper can make a run?" I said, "Yes." He said, "Do you think he can win it?" I said, "Mm, I don't know." Uh, you do. That's kind of a- Yeah...
14:13
that's ex- that's exactly what I wrote in my thing.
14:15
Like, I don't know for sure that he can win, but I think he has the potential to make a very deep run, and at that point, you're looking at probably some really good prices to hedge.
14:23
Or if you see, you know, you get a little bit of luck elsewhere in the draw, maybe he can win.
14:27
I do think that Wimbledon, of all the majors, is going to be the one that's most open as we go into the Alcaraz and Sinner era. Yeah.
14:33
I w- I, I would say that on the women's side, I guess, is kind of an open in quotes, meaning we could get any number of, uh, of ladies winning this.
14:42
Y- yeah, but I also took Iga for this one too, because I feel like it's kind of gone a little, like, unnoticed, but- Me too... you know, Iga's, Iga's holds percentage is way up this year.
14:51
Uh, all of her numbers across the board are honestly more impressive this season than they've ever been, which is scary for a player that has dominated the women's game in general.
14:58
But also, you know, she's spoken a lot about the way she's tailored her game for faster surfaces. You know, she's really worked on her serve. She's sped up her forehand.
15:05
I think that she's trying to do, you know, make a dent in these quicker surfaces. So I think Wimbledon, US Open, I think she's gonna be really locked in.
15:12
I bet her yesterday after saying that I might not, and but then she came out and she made those comments. She's like, "Look, me transitioning to clay is super easy," meaning in this case, the Olympics right afterwards.
15:24
And when she said that, I kind of nodded. I was like, "Oh, yeah." So she is going to be full throttle at Wimbledon. She's never won a grass tournament, uh, on the main tour ever, uh, in all of her 22.
15:33
None of them are on grass. Uh, but it, would it shock anyone to see her win this? It wouldn't me. So I bet her yesterday. What number did you get? I think it was, like, plus 360.
15:43
I'm, I'm not sure if I remember that cor- cor- correctly. Plus 378 is what I got off, o- off- Okay. Yeah. So that's probably what I got... four way place. Yes. Um, so yeah, I took a flyer on it, too.
15:52
Now, would I be shocked if a Rybakina or a Sabalenka won on this surface? I would not either. What, how many players total do you think could possibly win on the women's side? Did I just name the three or are there more?
16:04
I think that there's a bunch, honestly. Like, I think that any of the big servers can kind of get hot and potentially win this tournament. Like, I put Osaka in as a player to watch.
16:11
I mean, that hasn't really looked great to start the grass season. She hasn't looked, you know, like she's built any momentum off of that French Open performance against Iga.
16:18
But I do think this is a tournament that she can win, and I guess there are, I mean, a few others I'm trying to... I'm kind of blanking right now.
16:24
I mean, I would have said, like, a, a Caroline Garcia in a different year, not this year. Maybe, like, a Madison Keys goes deep in the tournament.
16:30
But I think a player with a lot of power can get hot on the right day and win any match. Would you ra- on the men's side, would you rather have Draper or would you rather have a serve bot like a Milos Raonic?
16:40
I'd rather have Draper, but I did also in that same column, I put in, uh, Hubie Hurkacz and Taylor Fritz, two guys that I think can- Yeah...
16:46
potentially make deep runs, and I have Fritz to win Queen's Club, so- There you go... yeah, hopefully for the best there. There you go. Okay. Anything else in tennis today that you have? Any bets?
16:55
I have Brandon Nakashima to beat Lorenzo Musetti, and I also have, uh, Jean-Leonard Struff to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas. I just think that, you know, Musetti's a player that I really like.
17:04
I back him all the time, honestly, probably a little too much, but I think there's a little too much flash in his game. Nakashima plays a much more straightforward style.
17:12
He has a little bit of a better serve, a more sturdy baseline game. I like his two-handed backhand. And then with Struff, I mean, I just haven't been impressed with Tsitsipas lately.
17:20
I thought that that match against Squier in the first round was really, you know, kind of concerning.
17:24
I thought that he, he should be able to break serve against a player like that, and if he's struggling to do so in that type of match, I don't see him breaking against Struff.
17:32
So I think that's a match that we probably see a tiebreaker or two, but I trust Struff to get the job done on this surface. He's a really good, uh, quick court player as well.
17:38
Yeah, I have Jan-Lennard Struff today as well. That was my second pick on, uh, vsen.com/picks.
17:44
Again, Zach's tennis picks, all of his picks, every host, every guest on the network, every sport for VSen subscribers at vsen.com/picks.
17:51
I, too, am on Struff, which means in the current pocket that I'm in, uh, Zach, we'll get it to one game within a victory, and then God knows what could happen at that point. [laughs] Um, all right.
18:00
Here's the, uh [laughs] here's the NBA draft pick. Um, the Atlanta Hawks, uh, remember they won the number one overall pick despite having the 10th best odds.
18:08
Uh, you came on this show some time ago and said you are taking, uh, you're gonna take a flyer on Clingan, Donovan Clingan, to go number one.
18:16
Uh, now their early target was by all reports, uh, Alexander Sarr, but it seems like, uh, he's not trying to work out with them despite the Hawks' attempts to bring him in.
18:28
And so what you have now in the market is, uh, Zachary Risacher and Clingan. They have moved up. They're shorter. This is according to, uh, Jonathan Givony. You're feeling good about this, I would imagine.
18:41
Clin- so it's Sarr at minus 115. This is to go number one. Zachary Risacher, both the French players at plus 110. Flip. Flip. Flip now? Yeah. Ri- Risacher is the favorite as of this morning at minus 115. Okay. Bad music.
18:53
Sorry. Sorry. So Risacher, the slight favorite, Sarr the slight dog, and then Clingan at plus 370. This gonna happen for you? I hope so. Yeah, I gave out Clingan at plus t- 1100, then plus 1200.
19:04
Uh, now it's looking like it's Rui Hachimura or Clingan. I think if the problem with the Hawks is they have a lot of voices in their front office, and you kind of don't know who's going to get to make the pick.
19:13
And so I kind of the whole time said, if Quin Snyder, the head coach, has any say in this pick, I think he's gonna go Clingan, because I don't think he wants to go through a long rebuild.
19:21
I think he wants somebody that can anchor that defense, and really, you know, kind of make up for Trae Young's inability to guard the perimeter. Clingan can do that.
19:28
I think Clingan is a player that's a lot like, you know, a Rudy Gobert, maybe more like a Marcus Saul, just a guy that can really just be a massive body in the paint, contests every shot.
19:38
But then offensively, he's a really good passer. Apparently he's shooting the three ball really well in workouts, I mean, which is not that surprising if you just look at the way he shoots the ball.
19:46
Like, he has really nice form.
19:48
So I think if he's a guy that is making shots consistently, and you're comfortable with it in the way he's shooting the ball in workouts, like, it makes a lot of sense to grab him at one in a weak draft, because I do think he has all defense upside, and whatever he can do on offense is just gravy.
20:00
Uh, what are you seeing in terms of the breadth of the menu here for the draft itself?
20:06
I like this draft [laughs] a little bit better than most people do, but I think that because I write about the draft, I just kind of like fall in love with players that maybe other people wouldn't.
20:14
But I do think that there's going to be a lot of value to be had later in the draft, and I do think that we're going to get, you know, a few all-stars in this draft.
20:21
I just kind of think that it's inevitable that some players in a draft will turn into an all-star.
20:26
This one is one where there are players with all types of upside, maybe have some concerns with shooting or something like that, but, you know, most of these teams can figure something like that out.
20:35
Yeah, I think- DraftKings has a ton post. DraftKings is insane. It's, it, they keep putting more and more stuff up. It's really impressive. Uh, the, uh...
20:41
And, yeah, to that point, Zach, I mean, hey, we all thought the Anthony Edwards draft was gonna be terrible, and, uh, he's looking pretty good right now. I think we can sense it. Yeah.
20:48
This is, it's just not top-heavy, right? But there are a lot of good players in this draft, just doesn't have the, uh, the superstar here.
20:54
By the way, when Nevada gets legalized sports betting, I'm sure we're gonna have at least one- [laughs]... um, uh, NF- NBA draft prep. Uh, where do you fall on Bronny? I like Bronny, uh, a little bit.
21:06
I think he's going to be, you know, potentially a solid rotation player. Like, I don't think he should go 17 to the Lakers. I don't think the Suns should take him at 22.
21:13
But I think in the second round he's a decent value.
21:16
Like, I think that people ignore about Bronny is that he was, like, a, the 20th ranked player in his high school class, and, you know, was above players, like, right in the range of a player like Reed Shepherd, who's now projected to go top five in this draft.
21:29
I think that Bronny is a talented player that had a really tough go in college.
21:33
I think that people ignore kind of the fact that he went into cardiac arrest, you know, i- in the summer, got off to a slow start where he really wasn't able to ramp up for training camp.
21:41
They played him, you know, small, short minutes when he started the season out, and he was playing for a USC team that had a bunch of ball dominant guards.
21:47
So I don't think that, you know, getting him good looks for the three was, you know, a priority for the USC offense. I think that Bronny's a player that can defend on the perimeter, can hit the three.
21:56
Uh, I kind of think he's like a Deuce McBride type, where you're gonna like him coming off the bench. Do you have any bets on him? You, Kelly, either? Either of you guys? No, nothing.
22:03
I took the under on that 38 and a half. Okay. Uh, I don't know how good I feel about it right now [laughs] because, you know, yesterday Rich Paul came out and said that he's not going at 17 and he's not going at 22.
22:12
So that was kind of my theory is that he had a draft promise somewhere in the first round. But at the same time, he kind of threw out there that the Raptors are interested. They have a pick in the 30s.
22:21
So I still kind of see him going, you know, 38 or, or c- or earlier. All right, Zach, uh, good luck with Clingan. Good luck with tennis. Um, Wimbledon draw, what do we think, the 29th of June?
22:31
Like, I think it might be a weekend, right? I think so, yeah. Yeah. I'm looking forward to doing that pod with you. Yeah. That's gonna be a tough pre-draw pod, as though is what it's gonna be. Thank you, Zach.
22:40
I look forward to that. Enjoy, man. Thanks, guys. Zach Cohen, everybody. Betting on X, Progressive guest line. We'll come back with Matt Grissom on college baseball on the other side.
22:51
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on the numbers game live from Bar Canada the D, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin. Bar Canada, the barrage. We get tweets of beating the book.
23:03
Uh, best listeners in the game, Martel J, "Gil's grandpa, one. Kelly's grandpa, zero." I'll leave it at that. [laughs] Jesus. [laughs] It's the sc- sc- it's just, it's the stupidest thing getting traction.
23:14
Uh, Colin Murphy, "Great segment.
23:16
Everyone goes through their ups and downs, but when it comes to the tennis bets, wouldn't it make sense to put a half unit or a little more on the spread and half unit on the money line to mitigate the negative variance on some of these?"
23:25
Some of these, yes, Colin. But the issue with tennis is the mental aspect of it. Let's take this morning's.
23:32
Uh, Katarina, pardon me, Katarina Alexandrova up six to three in the tiebreaker, first set tiebreaker against Coco on her serve, right? So she get up two mini breaks. So she ends up losing at 8-6,
23:46
and then you know if you've, you know, been betting this long enough or you're watching as you know very well, that the mental aspect of this just crumbles someone, who that happens to.
23:55
So of course she then, you know at that moment not only is she losing [laughs] the match, but it's not gonna be competitive, and so she ends up losing that second set 6-2, so she doesn't cover the game spread either.
24:04
So there's, there's a lot of that in tennis, too, so it's not quite as simple as you're making it out to...
24:10
Uh, not that you're making it out to be, but I think you're right that in some cases, I guess what I'm saying is it will work out, but in others it just, it doesn't.
24:17
And so I've had success just playing the money line on the dog. Um, this is from Brandon Kyles: "Uh, the super long shots not getting home are one thing, but the robberies particularly sting.
24:25
Hamlin, comeback player of the year." He says, "Jokic 2023 MVP. Oh, well, such is life when betting on subjective markets." Yes, and we know that about awards markets specifically. Yeah.
24:35
I was gonna say overall, great point, but I think that's even... It's like long shots are in a category, and we need to start separating awards- Awards... into a separate category as well. 100%. 100%.
24:44
'Cause that, it, like, it is... I mean, how, we, we talk about them a lot. We understand it's par- partially for the content, partially 'cause we think there's interesting betting angles.
24:51
But there is how many times where you think you've got it dead on, and it just doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. It matters what 11 people voting at the end of a game think.
25:00
And, uh, Phil Weiss continues to hate listen to us every day, every single word. Finds, finds, finds bad in only the good. Obsessed with this picture from John Balducci.
25:09
Again, uh- Okay, and then John Balducci, oh my God, 'cause we talked about Rufus yesterday- Yeah... the other day. The ultimate picture out of the plane. From a middle seat, he said.
25:16
Rufus flying into London, you know, leans over whoever poor soul was in the window seat- Yeah, seriously, who does that? [laughs]...
25:21
goes bang, and he gets this big, this beautiful picture of, of, of the river and London Bridge, I believe. I'm, maybe I'm exaggerating. The River Thames? The River Thames, right, and London Bridge.
25:33
Could've been any river in London. Also the London Eye. I don't know if he got the Eye in there. I'm, I'm, I'm actually hyping up his picture a little more than it was. [laughs] But then John Balducci just took one.
25:40
He goes, "Ask what" [laughs] he goes, "Ask what kills big ego it was. Too soon, man. Too soon." And he goes, "Also per last week, uh, rate my landing picture." So he is land- This is from a plane over DC.
25:51
Gave it an 8.7 out of 10. I'm gonna tell you about the... We gotta show this picture. We gotta- Yeah... we'll put this up next segment. But he's got the Lincoln Memorial in the foreground, right?
26:00
Then he's got the, uh, the basin between the Lincoln Memorial and the Washington Monument. No building in DC can be higher than the Washington Monument. And then- I didn't know that...
26:08
then that stretch to the Capitol, the United States Capitol, and then deep, deep, deep in the background behind the United States Capitol, this is where only the, the educated DCI will be able to pick this up,
26:20
RFK Stadium. Oh. Theater of Thrills, home of the three-time Super Bowl champion Washington Redskins. Great job, John Balducci. You're in first place with your picture.
26:29
Is that, though, is that the big, like, white thing past it? No, that's that, like, thing in the... You see way past the Capitol there? Yeah, yeah, yeah. I know. That's what I'm talking about. All right. We'll show it.
26:36
Uh, so I looked up, I looked up, there is, there... I was asking, I was like, "What's this construction going on in this picture?" At the Lincoln Memorial? There is construction going on at the Lincoln Memorial. Yeah.
26:44
Fixing it up. I just Googled it. The Undercroft, apparently. There's an Undercroft at the Lincoln Memorial that is being, uh, renovated. Define Undercroft. I don't know. I, I have no idea.
26:53
Underneath the Lincoln Me- underneath a memorial of some kind. We gotta get that picture up, and you know what else pi- what other picture we have to get up? Roxy sent me a picture of him in a top hat.
27:01
Remember I was questioning Rufus? Yeah. Rufus was like, "Yeah, Roxy's in a top hat at, uh, you know, the horse races in England." I'm like, "I gotta get it." So Roxy sent me one, so we gotta show him outside.
27:09
Baller move. You pull that off. Uh, Max Gris- Max Grissom. Matt Grissom joins us right now. He never wears a top hat. Uh, he joins us from Arkansas, collegebaseballinsiders.com, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line.
27:22
How you doing, Matt? I'm doing well. Had a, had a little trip out to Omaha, saw some really good baseball. I can't complain. Oh, you went. I missed that somehow. Yeah, I went for the first time.
27:35
I was there until, I guess, Tuesday. I ran into Derek Stevens and the crew from Circa out there. Yeah. And, uh, we, we saw a lot of great baseball. I have always wanted to go. You finally hit that bucket list item.
27:49
Where does it rank for you in terms of sporting events attended? Uh, I think it's number one. I mean, and I, I love college baseball, but that just, that was an experience unlike any other.
28:01
Getting to sit there with all these different fan bases and, you know, I'm a diehard Razorback fan, so with them not even being there and having this much fun, I can't wait until the f- the Hogs finally make it back, 'cause that's just gonna exemplify it even more.
28:18
But it w- it was a great experience. I like your College Baseball Insiders hat. Looks just like an LA Raiders hat. Was that by intention? Uh, I'm a big fan of Tideless, the golf brand. Oh, okay. There you go.
28:30
The script idea, yeah. Same font. But old school. Um, that, so did you, w- w- do you go and you... The College Baseball World Series, for those who don't know, in Omaha.
28:40
So it is, it is eight teams, and it is just absolutely great. Yesterday, I mean, I know, I know you weren't there yesterday, but yesterday was just this awesome day of three games 'cause of a rain out the night before.
28:51
Uh, do you think Florida, let's, before we get into your thoughts ab- about Tennessee and Texas A&M here in the College World Series final best of three, do you think that rain out really was fair ultimately to...
29:03
I mean, I guess they couldn't have played it anyway, but they, they called it so early in the day, right? The, uh, the FSU North Carolina game was going on, and they're like, "Yeah, we're done."
29:12
So Florida, if you're going to get to the finals, you're gonna have to win twice in one day. Was that fair? Could they have done anything about it? Probably not, I'm guessing, but I'm getting your thoughts on that.
29:24
And then Florida going up seven to one yesterday in the early game, did they mismanage anything, having lost ultimately in the second game? I don't think so. I mean, the weather's always an issue in Omaha.
29:36
We, we saw them play in that super late game that didn't start till, I think, 11:30 Eastern. Uh, we didn't leave the ballpark that night. They lost to A&M three to two.
29:45
We didn't leave the ballpark until about 1:30 in the morning. So Florida kind of got the brunt of it as far as playing, uh, Texas A&M. That just kind of goes to show the benefit of going up through the winner's bracket.
29:58
You know, them and Tennessee, they're both sitting there at 3-0. They never had to throw off their typical rotation. So I think Florida, they were put, you know, in the back seat once they lost that first game to A&M.
30:10
And, uh, same could be said for Florida State after the controversial loss to Tennessee in that game one. Yeah. Blake Ert did go around.
30:19
That was not just a check swing, but, uh, it is what it is, and, and now you've got the two best teams in the field facing off.
30:26
But yeah, to go back for Florida, I, I don't think there's anything you could have done differently. Some, some teams really like playing a double header.
30:35
You're out there, you're loose, especially when you turn it on against Kentucky, you know, and the bats really get going.
30:42
So I, I liked Florida headed into that game, but you could tell pretty early on that it was A&M's to lose, and I chickened out of my Florida plus one and a half bet, jumped on A&M live.
30:54
I just, I didn't feel like Florida had the pin to sit there and, and be able to contend with A&M Yeah. Well, FSU didn't have the pen to contend with Tennessee either, but for sure that check swing
31:07
could have changed history because they would've had Jamie Arnold on the hill today against Tennessee, and we will never know. We will never know the outcome.
31:15
So the Knolls and those of us who had tickets on it, um, we're just left with that. As far as the best of three finals, Tennessee is the rightful favorite.
31:24
They are trying to be the first number one overall, man, to get to the promised land, to win the College World Series since Texas in 2010. We have not seen that since then. Uh, Tennessee's lineup just absolutely stacked.
31:37
They're a minus 210 series favorite. Again, best of three. This starts on Saturday with game one. Texas A&M plus 170 on the series.
31:46
And as far as game one is concerned, Tennessee minus 154, Texas A&M plus 120 on the comeback. How do you see either game or series? You know, I'm rooting for Tennessee.
31:57
I wrote up in the VSEN College Baseball preview that I thought these would be the last two teams left. And if you believed in the curse of the number one overall seed, you should back Texas A&M. I've-- I just don't know.
32:09
I think the, the blow of losing Braden Montgomery and Shane Sedal, I think that's gonna come back to haunt them. Granted, it didn't hurt them at all through the first, uh, week of college ba- the College World Series.
32:22
I think AJ Cazzy, Chris Stamos, the, the opener, you know, full, full, uh, slate guy for Tennessee, kind of their ace that doesn't start, versus Ryan Prager is gonna tell us a lot in game one.
32:36
If you like A&M to win this, I feel like your best shot is with Prager on the mound, so maybe just take the plus 120 in game one. But for Tennessee, this is a stacked team.
32:46
We've seen guys run through walls for Tony Vitello, literally. Uh, this, this team is just playing out of their minds right now. They've got the, the pitching depth. Uh, their lineup is, is so stacked.
32:59
And while A&M's scores didn't jump off the page kinda like, uh, Tennessee's did, A&M rightfully deserve to be here, and, and they're gonna give it all they've got.
33:10
But, uh, Ryan Prager, then Justin Lampkin, if he can repeat his success that he had in, in the first week of the College World Series, we'll see if-- They're gonna need it.
33:21
But I think this is Tennessee's to lose at this point. I think you're right, and I think FSU is the only team that could have beaten them. I really do. Uh, we shall see. This should be fun. Matt, have appreciated you.
33:31
Uh, both of us have the whole way through. Uh, thanks for making the time again. Absolutely, guys. Thanks for having me. Matt Grissom, collegebaseballinsiders.com, analytics college baseball.
33:42
We'll talk AL and NL MVP next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back at Bar Canada at the D, downtown Las Vegas, Gil Alexander, Kelly Midlan.
33:58
Producer number nine, so much more than a producer. Can we show these, uh, these pictures? This is a picture from a plane, John Balduzzi. This is, uh, this beats Rufus's, I believe.
34:07
Because there it is, Lincoln Memorial foreground, Washington Monument. Then you'll see the Capitol. And if you really use a magnifying glass behind the Capitol, Robert F. Kennedy Memorial Stadium.
34:20
Really small in the background. So that, the RFK Stadium, puts it over the top. You think this is better than Rufus's over the River Thames? Ooh, I don't know. Great. Rufus is- They're, they're very close. Yeah.
34:30
I'm biased because of the stadium. I think I'm gonna go, still go with Rufus. Wow. Okay. But it's, but it's, uh, it's tight. It's very tight. John, one to one. Th- that's the stadium, right?
34:38
I would say the little the, the, the little white speck past the Capitol Building, right? It's not a white speck. It's a- Well- It's a, like a curved thing in the background. Right. Yeah, but it's white, right?
34:49
The white curve. Yeah, let me get a better- Yeah, the white curve. Exactly. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. It's not, it's not a speck though. It's like bigger, way bigger than the Capitol is to the right. No, it is, you're right.
34:57
Correct. Yeah. Yes, it is. Call it a speck. You know how many Super Bowls were won in that thing? Not actually in that stadium, but- Oh, I know. I, I know. I mean, this angle's interesting. Yeah.
35:06
I did not know it was that close though. Well, he's, he's taking it from a phone, from a, from a plane. Right. [laughs] What do you-- You did not know what was that close? The stadium. Oh, yeah.
35:13
I mean, it's-- I mean, DC's small. Um, this is northw- this is northwest Washington, DC. Um, so that's c- you know, where all the monuments are. And then right at sort of the edge is RFK Stadium. DC, everybody.
35:26
Little shout out right here. We'll get Roxy's top hat picture to you, uh, next. That's very exciting. AL and NL MVP. You put this in the rundown, which is good job by you.
35:35
Um, but here's the thing with both of these, and we touched on this a little yesterday. I feel like, and this is nicely juxtaposed against our initial conversation on the show today about, you know, these awards markets.
35:48
I feel like in both the American League and the National League, we have situations where unless an injury happens, we kinda know which way this is going. Let's start with the AL. Aaron Judge is minus 125.
36:03
Um, could you make a case for someone else? For instance, Jason Weingarten came on the show and was talking about how Juan Soto, at that time at plus 550, Aaron Judge's teammate, now at five to one.
36:14
He was saying Soto's better than Judge, and that he doesn't think that there should be that big of a spread between those two players.
36:19
He might be right about that in terms of a spread, but Aaron Judge right now, 26 homers, right? Leads the major leagues, uh, with 26 home runs. RBI, tied with Jose Ramirez, who's 64 RBI.
36:35
And then if you go to the third, we'll just start with the Triple Crown stats to, just to make it easy. Um, you know, what is he? Uh,.302 batting average, which is, I'll count, second, third, fourth.
36:47
He's fifth in batting average in the American League. So you have a guy who On batting average is, is the only thing keeping him from being in the Triple Crown category right now. Uh, Bobby Witt Jr.
36:58
of the Royals 323, so Judge has a ways to go there if he were to get the Triple Crown.
37:02
But every other stat, like Aaron Ju- uh, you'll see Aaron Judge stats on Twitter, and the name Barry Lamar Ma- uh, Barry Lamar Bonds will be invoked in terms of the last player to do this well, and you name the advanced stat, Barry Bonds in whatever year, right?
37:17
So if you're, if you're in a sentence with that guy, minus 125. Now, he got hit in the hand with a pitch the other day. Does he have any concern about that? Uh, he seems to be okay.
37:27
I mean, they, they're saying it was negative. Didn't play last night. Didn't play last night. Um, you know. But the tests were negative. Gunnar Henderson got beaned for that, uh, atrocity to Aaron Judge. Oh, did he?
37:35
Yeah, he got late in the game. I bet with Barber yesterday that he would- He got hit later in the game. Late inning... that he would. I, I took the Will Hill bet. Not in his first at bat, though.
37:41
Will, I think Will took first at bat, right? Or did he take a general? I don't know. Okay. Well, anyway, Aaron Judge, I just think unless there's an injury, you can make your case.
37:50
Like, remember my case was José Ramírez. I was like 25-1 before the season. Oh, I was so s- I was so mad that I didn't make the José Ramírez 25-1 bet.
37:58
And then deep in the season, as the Guardians are almost winning most wins in March, April, almost winning most wins in May,
38:06
I'm like, José Ramírez is, is now proving he's every bit of the ballplayer that I thought he was, or that w- everybody who knows him and loves him thought he was with the 25-1. Guess what he is now? He's 30 to 1.
38:17
Because I can sit here and make a case for him, but is he really gonna beat Aaron Judge in a vote if they both play this well the rest of the season and neither gets hurt? He's not.
38:28
He's just not, even though you can make a case for it. The way that these voters go. And yes, is there a Yankee bias? Of course there is.
38:36
So for me, it's Aaron Judge or bust right now, and I can't really sit here and say, "Oh, you should go bet José Ramírez," because I don't in my heart of hearts, I'm not betting it, and I don't think, all things being equal the rest of the way, he could win it.
38:49
Um, Soto, back to him for a second. Yeah. I mean, we-- this market, what? A week and a half, two weeks ago, it was Judge, like, plus 120 and Soto just behind him. Five to one? Like, there's any in- interest on that?
39:04
Well, that's what Jason was saying. He's-- Jason was making the point that he thinks Juan Soto's a better overall ballplayer than Aaron Judge, and that he probably shouldn't be five to one.
39:12
And I'm not saying like- I think Jason was talking about that one before Soto got hurt, though. He w- well, no, he was talking about it when Soto was plus 550 last week. Okay.
39:19
So I'm, but I'm just saying, I understand that sentiment. I just don't agree with-- At, at this point, I don't know. I think Juan Soto's a better alt in my mind's eye. Because of Aaron Judge. Yeah.
39:28
Do I think Juan Soto is a better player than Aaron Judge overall? Probably, but if I put numbers to it this year, you can't really make that case. Well, and there's, like, there's the popularity factor, right?
39:37
Like, the bigg- he's still-- like, Aaron Judge is still a bigger, the bigger name on the Yankees than Juan Soto. And AL MVP, and we talked about this yesterday, so if you missed it, I'll sort of rehash it.
39:47
But, uh, the question came out about Marcell Ozuna. Mm-hmm. Of the Atlanta Braves, and this has to do, let's go back to Triple Crown numbers.
39:54
Marcell Ozuna is closer to a Triple Crown right now, here we are on June 20th in the National League, than even Aaron Judge is in the American League.
40:02
Marcell Ozuna right now, uh, leads the National League in home runs with 20. Actually, he's tied now with Shohei Ohtani, 20 home runs, uh, in the National League. He does lead the NL in RBI, uh, with 63, 63 RBIs.
40:18
And then in terms of average, batting average, only Luis Arias, of course, at 319, and Shohei at 317, trump Marcell Ozuna's 316. So the question becomes, wow, he's still 10 to one. Would you bet on him at 10 to one?
40:35
Uh, and we brought up the biggest thing about him. He has off the field issues. Mm-hmm. Domestic battery. It's not like a light weighted off the field thing.
40:47
So do you really think-- Now, if he wins the Triple Crown, remember 2012, there hadn't been a Triple Crown winner in the American League or the National League since 1967. Right.
40:58
Carl Yastrzemski won it in 1967, uh, with the Boston Red Sox. So it would've been 45 years. Do I have that right? Yes. 45 years, and Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers won the Triple Crown.
41:10
There was a bunch of advanced stat heads who were like, "Oh, you gotta give it to Trout. Look at all the advanced stats."
41:14
But I was like, you can't talk about something like a Triple Crown, no matter how manufactured- Mm-hmm. Yep... that term is or that we've come up with that as a catch-all in baseball.
41:22
You can't talk about something for 45 years, and then when it finally happens, look the other way and cite other stats. And so they gave it to Miguel Cabrera in 2012. Does that still have the same cachet?
41:33
Like, if Marcell Ozuna- Yes... won the Triple Crown in 2024, would that--
41:40
would, would, would voters vote for him if Shohei and/or Bryce Harper, another beloved player with a big name, if they had awesome seasons that were just a tick below that?
41:51
Would they really vote for Marcell Ozuna, domestic battery situation, even though he gets the Triple Crown? I think they would. You think they would? I think they would.
42:00
I think you and Jason, uh, summed it up well yesterday, but I, I just, it, it's- And even if he's one RBI shy, they won't? Ri- Is that what you're saying? Yeah, that is what I'm saying. Yes.
42:08
That is exactly what I'm saying. That was the point I was trying to make yesterday. Is that the, is that the line in the sand with him? Yeah, and I don't-- like, you can feel however you wanna feel about that.
42:15
[laughs] Like, I, that just, it's, that's what I think would happen. If that's how it ended up, yes. I think a Triple Crown is still that big of a deal. Like, it, it, it's gonna end up mattering more.
42:24
The one, the one I always keep going back to is Shohei in this market. It's just the-- it's the, it's kind of like the Nikola Jokic thing, right? Like, is this the year
42:33
just where they, w- with him not pitching, that, that the, the writers are gonna be like, "Ah, well, we're gonna give it to him, like, every year going forward.
42:40
Let's l- let's look at someone else to try to get this award to, if it's, uh, if it's remotely close." That, that's just like, that's in the back of my head this entire season.
42:49
But heading into the season, this whole season with Shohei. Yeah. By the way, just to, to clarify, Atlanta Braves star Marcell Ozuna arrested and accused of domestic violence, uh, back in February.
42:59
Um, arrested in September, originally charged with felony domestic violence after an incident with his wife in the parking lot at the stadium. So what does all that mean?
43:08
I don't-- It, it's one of those where usually you come out and you're like, you know, when we talk about Wimbledon or we talk about these other bets that we've made, we have a long shot thought.
43:15
I don't believe I have one because I think that Aaron Judge with the Yankee bias and quite frankly, Shohei with the Dodger bias are so in-- are so worthy of it, first of all, on their play on the field and their numbers, that to sit here and give you a, a long shot play is just kind of, "I'm not betting it, so I'm not gonna tell you to bet it."
43:37
I, I just-- Mookie got hurt, right? I was gonna say, get Mookie off the board. What do we, what do we-- he's out for eight weeks, right? Six to eight weeks? Come on. There's no shot he has at winning this, right?
43:47
No, not, not at currently, no way. I mean, not at 35 to one. Like, you should be be- I mean, that should be triple digits. I mean, Red's gotta do better.
43:54
The Reds have kind of co- have fallen in a funk for Elly De La Cruz to, uh, really pop up in this conversations, conversation. I mean, same thing with Fernando Tatis Jr., where wins matter in these categories.
44:05
Um, and names matter. So I just think that's the way it shakes out right now in both of these categories. Wish it was a sexier conversation, but sometimes that's how the cookie crumbles.
44:14
We'll come back unscripted with the Crack Man Bill Krackenberger. No telling where this goes. Exclusively on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
44:23
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