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Jun 21, 2024
A Numbers Game | June 21, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | June 21, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:33
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it.
0:17
It is Gil Alexander, and it is Dustin Swedelson sitting in for the vacationing Kelly Bidlin, who, uh, in a, uh, minus EV move flew right into Austin, Texan where- uh, Austin, Texas, where there's a tropical storm.
0:29
What's happening, man? Well, I mean, the audience is now going through something all of our bosses go through. Uh, I don't know if you know this, Gil, but Kelly and I look alike. It's just different- I know...
0:37
colors on the hair. Oh, that's true, actually. And there are- Never really thought about that.
0:41
Yeah, there are many days where I receive an email meant for Kelly, and I have to reply back to John Goulet and Brian Rogers, Len Mead, Bill AD, and I have to say, "Hey, wrong fat guy with a beard." Mm.
0:53
I s- [laughs] I see.
0:54
Well, speaking of that, for those who don't know, Dustin is the co-host and producer of Sharp Money, which he does with Patrick Maher, weekdays here, 6:00 PM Eastern, 3:00 PM Pacific, uh, right after the Lombardi Line.
1:04
You called yourself fat, but let's be clear, you, for those who, uh, just trying to, uh, sort of relate to this audience because I think they will know you most from your weight loss bet with Jonathan Von Tobel.
1:18
Please explain the parameters of that and how that's going. Yeah, so, uh, we are in a very long battle to lose a lot of weight, the ultimate fatness competition, we're calling it.
1:28
[laughs] And it basically started in February going all the way until week one of the NFL season. And whoever- Oh, that's when it ends... whoever loses the most body fat percentage wins the contest. Body fat percentage.
1:40
You're not talking strictly, but you're talking about- Weight... weight. Weight. Weight. Yeah, weight percentage. Yeah. Okay. Wherever from, from the starting point that we, we began at.
1:47
We have a couple weigh-ins along the way. I won the first weigh-in. I have a feeling JVT is gonna win the second weigh-in, which comes up in a few weeks here. He's very determined. Yeah. Well, he, he slow played things.
1:57
[laughs] He waited for me to shoot my best shot. Yeah. I came out of the gates hot, and he's sitting back in the weeds now. So if you're live betting this at home, I think there is value on my competitor at the moment.
2:08
However, I think in the end I'll find a way to win this, 'cause we have until the, the Chiefs kick off on Thursday Night Football to start the season. What weights did you start at? I started at 376.1. Come on. Oh, yeah.
2:20
Oh, yeah, we got out of control. How tall are you? About 5'11". Okay. Oh, okay. You, yeah- Yeah... this is good then. So I, I did a body mass composition thing. Yeah. To get into the weeds here for a moment.
2:29
I have 124 pounds of, of muscle on my body. See? See what he did there? So- [laughs] So 376. Well, what was JVT? JVT was, uh, like 301, I think. Okay. But it's percentage, so. Yeah, he lost 18 pounds the first shot.
2:45
I lost, I wanna say it was, like, 36. Oh, you were definitely the winner there. Yeah, so I won- Okay... the first round. It's slowed up a lot. Okay.
2:53
Also, sometimes that affirmation, the positive affirmation of winning that first one, kind of, you lose, you lose your edge a bit as a competitor. And no... Oh, [laughs] you get complacent? Yeah, no, Kelly...
3:03
I know what you're gonna ask now. You're in a letdown spot? Kelly was ineligible because we said no PEDs. Right. No, that was what I was, exactly what I was gonna ask. You read my mind. So no PEDs, and Kelly was PED.
3:11
Yeah, yeah. Okay. Ke- Kelly- Okay... Ke- Kelly's using that BALCO stuff. All right, so the second weigh-in might be a letdown spot or was a letdown spot. Yeah, I, well, it's gonna be J- Yeah...
3:18
uh, the second weigh-in is July 15th, and I, I, I think he's gonna kill me. Okay. Good for the both of you. Honor system on the PEDs, not like you guys, you know, check by analysis of any kind.
3:30
Um, did you happen to catch any of the Negro League tribute game at Rickwood Field in Birmingham, Alabama yesterday? I saw, I, I caught parts and chunks of it.
3:41
I enjoyed what I saw, but I will add that I host a baseball podcast. Baseball is my favorite sport. I didn't know this event was happening until Monday when Adam Burke brought it up on Double Play, a baseball podcast.
3:53
Are you suggesting that Major League Baseball and Rob Manfred are not good marketers? Uh, well, Rob Manfred's good at a lot of things. Yeah.
3:59
It's just all of it involves making the owners happy and not anything to do with making baseball fans happy. I, I have to say about this, and I know this is... We'll get to the sports betting part of June.
4:08
Uh, we'll update June most wins, and Dustin has a thought about July as well, I believe, in, in most wins already. But I have to say, the,
4:16
the lead up to this game, the game itself was whatever, Cardinals beat the Giants six to five. Um, but the lead up was unbelievable. This was not just Negro League baseball history. This was American history.
4:29
And having Reggie Jackson there before the game on the desk at Fox, he went on, you know, he went on for two minutes. I-- It was amazing.
4:39
I was, I put on, as, as you might do, because we do this for a living, I put on my Kevin Burkhardt hat, like I put myself in his position, and I was like, "God, I wonder if someone's in his ear saying the segment has to end or whatever, and how awkward that would be.
4:51
Please let this go." And to Fox's credit, they did.
4:55
Uh, and Reggie Jackson, for two minutes, talked about the horrible discrimination he endured, uh, there in Birmingham, and, uh, when, when his career, you know, had him there.
5:07
And, uh, with, uh, and, and you can imagine, with restaurants and hotels. But it is a, it's, you know, it's a blight on American history, but it was just so,
5:17
so fascinating, and I, I thought just something that folks need to hear after so much time again, lest we forget. And I just thought it was, it was so poignant. It was so, uh, unbelievable to listen to.
5:29
And by the way, uh, Barry Lamar Bonds, you know, uh, Willie Mays' godson, Willie Mays, who of course started at this ballpark, uh, at Rickwood Field when he was 17 years old, Willie Mays did, um, playing, playing for the Birmingham Black Barons.
5:42
Barry, Barry Bonds became Willie Mays' godson at the age of five, and he was super emotional.
5:48
And I thought for him, a guy who is usually testy with media, probably the most charming he's ever been, and I think we have some sound from Barry. Well, we will in a moment. Oh, oh, we don't. I'm so sorry. Sorry. Sorry.
5:58
See what I did? Getting it set up. Uh, yeah, but Barry Bonds, you know him well obviously from your time in San Francisco. Yeah.
6:04
And very curmudgeonly, very angry, but also aggressive ahead of a question normally Let's put it this way.
6:12
I walked by him one time on Union Street in San Francisco, and the, what he exuded was, "Do not talk to me if you intend to." Right? You felt it. You're like, "Okay, there's not gonna be any contact here." Yeah.
6:24
Look- A lot of that... also, if we're being fair, uh, everyone talks about asterisk with Barry Bonds. Babe Ruth deserves an asterisk more than Barry Bonds. For, for, for obvious reasons. Yeah. That's right.
6:34
And so, I, I mean, look, I just thought that this was such a, a great broadcast, and it was, i- if anybody can, particularly the Reggie Jackson part, if people can take time to, to watch that, it, it is well worth it.
6:46
It was just, uh, two minutes of awesome television. And again, credit to Fox for letting that happen. Um, as far as the, uh... Do you wanna, do you wanna do the Re- We'll, we- we'll go to the Ju- June wins here. Yeah.
6:59
Um, March, April wins. May wins. You know that, uh, credit to Circa, credit to DraftKings, credit to William Hill Caesars in March, April for putting up most wins in Major League Baseball that we could bet on those.
7:11
Um, you remember the Guardians being one out away at 65 to one. We don't have to rehash that.
7:16
In May, uh, DraftKings didn't do it, but Circa and William Hill Caesars did that market as well, where the Guardians at 60 to one, they went two and five against the White Sox and the Rockies.
7:27
Probably even worse outcome, to be quite honest with you, because they should have won that. Uh, but even if they had gone, let's say, five and two or four and three, the outcome might have been different.
7:37
As far as the June update, we have the Astros, at least I do here, and those who have tailed. I know others have other things. I'm not sure if you're involved here, Dustin.
7:45
Uh, but right now, the Orioles, as we sit here on June 21st, with 10 days left in the month, you'll see the number of games left for each of the teams on the far right of your screen.
7:55
The Orioles are in the lead, 13 and 6. 13 wins for the Orioles. 13 and 6 after they destroyed Luis Hill. Luis Hill with the very predictable regression game yesterday for the Yankees.
8:07
13 and 6 for the, uh, Orioles, plus 54 on the run differential. Now, remember here at Circa, the tiebreakers are fewest losses, then run differential. William Hill Caesars is a dead heat.
8:17
Mariners and Diamondbacks right behind them at 12 and 6. Mets, Red Sox, Dodge- uh, excuse me, Mets 11 and 5, Red Sox 11 and 6, then you have the Dodgers and Yankees at 11 and 7, and then a bevy of teams at 10 and 7.
8:29
That's where the Astros are. They're in ninth place at the current moment with a huge set against the Orioles now. Yeah. This is massive, right? Yeah. This weekend's massive. You've got the Astros.
8:38
They're starting a guy they brought up from double A today. Yes. Guy they drafted, what, uh, last year, I wanna say, 2023. And then you also have the Guardians after this.
8:47
The Guardians, who are all of a sudden mashing the ball for Baltimore, and then they wrap up the month with four against Texas. And look, Texas is underachieving.
8:56
But if they could play to their potential against a team challenging them, right? Yeah. To, to do what they did a year ago. This is Baltimore's schedule we're talking about. Yeah, Baltimore. Yeah.
9:03
So I mean, we're talking three against Houston, three against Cleveland, four against Texas. You're still live here with the Astros if the Astros can win this series. The on- if, if they can win the series.
9:12
You, I think you hit it. They, if you don't win two of three, you're done. No, you're done. But I said that about the White Sox series that they just had, that they had to sweep it. They went two and one.
9:21
The game they lost, they gave up two hits. Framber was awesome. It's just, it's brutal. So, yeah. Uh, the, the A- but this is, this is emblematic of the Astros right now, trying situations to buy in on them.
9:35
Gil, the, the, they're not hitting all of a sudden, and they're pitching- [laughs]... but they have no pitching, but the pitching's been better. It's a frustrating team.
9:42
It's not like, like when you, when I was on the Guardians in those two months, I could really count on them showing up, and then they were super gritty and end game, and they were resilient.
9:50
The Astros, you're like, "Oh, th- they're just, like, lying dogs in some of these." I don't know what it is, and the Guardians are another team that have flipped the script.
9:57
They've gone from a team that won by pitching in low-scoring games to now they're crushing the baseball and the pitching hasn't been as great.
10:04
So I, [laughs] I don't know what to do with some of these teams year to year, how much they flip-flop. You said that you already... Now, the, the markets are not up yet- No...
10:11
for July, but you said you already did a little schedule peek? Yeah, look, I think the Mets, when we look at the run they've been on, and I'm a Mets fan, I should point out, and I hate them. Disclaimer. I hate them.
10:22
I just, they've ruined my-- Being a Mets fan has made my life worse. [laughs] You are, it's like a, "Did Jeff Pearl just show up again?" [laughs] He's the exact same way. Yeah.
10:29
It, it, I can trace a lot of my decisions in life being bad, starting with being a Mets fan. Like, that decision started a train wreck of events down the road.
10:40
[laughs] Like, the butterfy, fly effect of me being a Yankee fan- Yeah... I wanna know what that life looks like, but I know it's better. Oh. You should, uh, I'm, I'm on texts with Felika and Will Hill.
10:50
They're Yankees fans. It's disgusting. Yeah, no, it's- You don't wanna be those guys either... it's obnoxious. It's annoying. Yeah, yeah. But they have fun watching baseball. They sure do. Uh, here's what I'd say.
10:57
The Mets had a very brutal open to the year schedule-wise. They faced a lot of good teams.
11:02
It's about to lighten up, and right before the All-Star Break, if you're looking at July when that market comes up, they have seven games against Washington before the All-Star Break, four against Pittsburgh, three against Colorado in New York.
11:14
You could get off to a very good start if the Mets continue to play the way, the way they've been playing recently. Yeah. We'll see what their number is, of course. Yes. Number dependent.
11:22
Uh, the Mets, remember we did that analysis before June. The Mets had the fewest scheduled games in the month of June. Only 24 games scheduled, and yet, here they are at 11 and 5.
11:34
Uh, de facto fourth place really, 'cause not, you know, has tiebreakers involved, but actually they're right in fourth place by themselves at 11 and 5, so that has not hampered them to this moment anyway.
11:45
We'll see how it ends. We'll come back. A little football strategy talk and some tennis picks. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:00
And don't forget to check out our website, vsin.com. Uh, looking beautiful at the top. College World Series thoughts with Aaron Moore. Josh Applebaum with all of his, uh MLB picks. Got some WNBA from Tyler Shoemaker.
12:14
College football recruiting rankings from Steve Makinen. And Zachary Cohen's got some tennis picks. It's all there. That and so much more, including NBA draft stuff.
12:23
Vsin.com, best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, and more. Check it out. It's Gil Alexander. Dustin Sweetolson in for Kelly Bidlin. Uh, I really hope our dear friend Kelly is safe, uh, down in Texas.
12:34
He's, uh, hanging out with his buddies for, uh, several days, and then he's going to LA, I believe. Dustin, kind enough to do the double header today.
12:40
He's doing a numbers game with me this morning, and then of course his, uh, normal spot on Sharp Money with Patrick, Patrick Maher, later today, about three hours after this show.
12:48
And you said you're going to, uh, fall asleep in your car in between shows.
12:50
I think the goal is take a nap in the car, which is ironic 'cause we are at a hotel right now where maybe I could have asked for a hookup for a room just to sleep in for a few hours. [laughs] Probably. Probably.
13:00
That probably would've been the smarter decision. Dustin and I, by the way, for those of you, uh, who are keen observers, uh, we are setting a bit of Vsin history this morning.
13:06
If you're wondering why, uh, colleges are, are breaking out in protest this morning, uh, you can figure it out from there.
13:12
By the way, Dustin texted me earlier, uh, that, uh, we'll be ranking Haftarah portions later in the show as well. Yeah. [laughs] Yeah.
13:17
Which is a great joke for a very small portion of the audience, but, uh, [laughs] appreciate that. We're gonna sing them. No we're not. Kidding, we're not gonna do it.
13:23
Uh, speaking of tennis, which Zach has picks on, uh, on the website, uh, I have three more ti- four, again, all of our picks at vsin.com/picks, every host, every guest, every sport on the network.
13:35
So I do my tennis the night before. Uh, one match is, one match of the four has started. We're up a break in the third set with Jessie Pegula this morning. It got suspended, rain. Um, up a break in the third.
13:48
What could go wrong? Uh, and three more coming, and in all three cases
13:54
it's not as quite as good of a price as what I gave out on the website, but I will tell you what the plays are, uh, nonetheless here, and you can decide for yourself if you want to, uh, to play them.
14:06
For, uh, on the w- on the ladies' side, I do have Ons Jabeur. I got her at plus 155 against Coco. She is now plus 145, so still playable.
14:15
Uh, that is in Berlin, but again, that's the same spot that Jessie Pegula's match is suspended, so who knows when that will get played. But just to let you know, uh, Jabeur is one of the plays.
14:24
On the men's side, where there is no weather, and these should get off, um, let me give the first one chronologically, 'cause I think this, yeah, that's the second one.
14:32
The first one is going to be i- at the Queen's Club, and this should start here relatively soon.
14:39
I took Tommy Paul against the red hot Jack Draper, um, who Zach and I were talking about yesterday as a possible, uh, you know, long shot play at Wimbledon.
14:48
But I got Tommy Paul last night at plus 161, and right here right now he's not quite that long. But I would say still playable at, well, let's see what it is, plus 142.
15:02
I wouldn't go any lower, quite frankly, than plus 140 on that. So s- please set the parameter there.
15:08
And then Chris Eubanks, who I got at, uh, plus 108 last night, he's at minus 104 now in his match against Zhang Zhizhen. Still playable, but don't let him become a favorite.
15:19
I wouldn't o- I would only play him as the dog here. So those are the plays coming up. Ons Jabeur, Tommy Paul, Christopher Eubanks. Not quite as good as the price if you are a Vsin subscriber at vsin.com/picks.
15:29
By the way, one other tennis note. I don't know how much you're into tennis at all. Do you follow it at all? No, no, G- Gil, I'm a fan of real sports. Oh my God, did that just get said?
15:38
Anyway, tennis, ladies and gentlemen, the finest combination of physical and mental prowess there is in sports. But anyway, uh, one thing about Wimbledon before we get to the football thought.
15:46
Uh, Elena Rybakina pulled out of the Berlin tournament today. So as we look ahead to Wimbledon, which the draw is a week from today. We're gonna do the podcast, the Beauty of the Book podcast a week from today.
15:57
Uh, Elena Rybakina pulled out of her fourth tournament of the year today in her match against Victoria Azarenka. They only played four games, then she left the court.
16:06
She was sort of sitting on the bench, and then she, uh, and then she ran into the locker room and she withdrew. But she has this year withdrawn from Berlin now, Rome, clay court tournament two tournaments ago.
16:18
Remember she lost in the quarters to Paolini in, uh, Paris. She also withdrew from Indian Wells on hard courts with a gastrointestinal problem, and the week before that in Dubai with a gastrointestinal problem.
16:31
So that's four. Now, when she has played she has been great. She's won Brisbane, she won in Abu Dhabi, she won in Stuttgart.
16:37
So she's won three times, which is a lot of tournaments to win, but you c- the question becomes can you count on her? Can you make a futures bet on her at Wimbledon? And the answer to me at this point is a resounding no.
16:50
Uh, she is one of the three favorites, along with, of course, Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka at Wimbledon. But I just, the, the three short shots, if you will. But I just don't think a- at this point you can trust that.
17:01
Now, can she show up and win the whole thing? She could, but I'm not betting someone who's withdrawn from four tournaments and two of her last three. So keep that in mind about Elena Rybakina.
17:12
You texted me something about, uh, football and betting the NFL that you wanted to discuss. Yeah.
17:17
Look, I, I, I think when we're at this time of year and we're getting our strategies together for the season, and there's a couple teams that I love, one that I think I wanna go all in on, meaning I wanna have Super Bowl bets.
17:30
I wanna have most regular season wins, win their division, MVP. I want offensive player of the year.
17:37
I think there's, like, an opportunity to go all in on a team, and is that a savvy move if you're a bettor, or would you rather spread out some of your opportunities here in all these different markets?
17:48
It's a great question. First of all, what team is it? It's the Philadelphia Eagles. As you were talking, I was like, "Is he talking about the Bengals?" Um, it's the Eagles.
17:56
It's a great question because it is very, first of all, it's very Feaster family. Yes. Right? Obviously. Matt Brown does this, uh, Matt Brown, his co-host, The Handle, he famously does this week to week in the NFL.
18:06
Like, he will He will tie almost everything in with one team. So his weekly results, I don't wanna speak for it, but his weekly results often tend to be feast or famine.
18:16
Uh, but you're saying from a year-long standpoint, you're thinking obviously, and I'll, I'll let you s- I'll let you put it in your words.
18:22
But you just think that they are so dominant in the NFC and that the other teams are down. I think the numbers are off on them. Yeah. I just think there's been an overreaction to what went on down the stretch last year.
18:32
And I mean, the obvious issue wasn't talent, the issues were immaturity. And a little bit of that is Nick Sirianni, who's still there.
18:39
However, I think they've mitigated a lot of that by making two mature hires at coordinator in Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio. Those are adults.
18:48
Those are guys who've been through the grind before, guys who've won a lot of football games in the league. And I think you bring that into that locker room to kind of reassess where they're at.
18:57
I look at the opportunities to get younger with Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox gone. As good as those guys were, I think you have a lot of young, hungry, super talented guys with more opportunity to play with upside.
19:08
We kind of knew who those other guys were who left. And I see a buy low opportunity on Jalen Hurts, who isn't an accurate passer, but you can scheme him up to have a good completion percentage.
19:20
And I think the addition of Saquon Barkley creates the greatest combination of talent we've ever seen to run that RPO system in the history of the NFL.
19:28
So just to clarify, Hurts would be your MVP and Barkley would be your offensive player of the year? Offensive player of the year.
19:34
Well, to answer your question, I do not typically go crazy like every which way with one team.
19:39
That's not to say that you can't make it work, but I guess part and parcel with what you're talking about is that you must not feel that the Cowboys in that division- [laughs]...
19:49
or the Niners in that conference, or Green Bay or anybody else- Sure... you're not too, uh, apparently you're not that worried- Well, no... based on the price. Because the price- Right.
19:59
And I- Well, what numbers are we talking here? And I get... I, I believe they're 14 to 1 to win the Super Bowl.
20:04
Uh, but based on the numbers, you can get a good number, and if I'm right about how good I think they are, we get into situations later in the year where you just, you make money on the ticket.
20:15
14 to 1, good but not great. Not great. Right. And nothing about the Eagles' performance last year causes you concern? Like, uh, Jalen Hurts just didn't look like the same player, right?
20:26
He looked like he was not only a step behind, he looked like he was a step and a half slower than he was before. 17 to 1. 17 to 1. Okay. A little better. No, I, I, I, I, I get what you're saying.
20:36
I, I have issues with Jalen Hurts where, like I said, I don't think he's accurate. But I do think you can scheme him up right in the right system.
20:43
And you look at what Barkley comes, the element of him with the short passes to make him look good.
20:47
Remember, Saquon Barkley stayed healthy and he carried Daniel Jones to the playoffs and got Daniel Jones paid a massive deal. Uh, I do believe with the players they have in place around Hurts, they can scheme him up.
20:59
You also have him at the goal line, the way he scores so many touchdowns for a quarterback. I just think statistically speaking, there's an opportunity for him to have a massive stat year.
21:11
Whether or not I like all the details of his game, that's another conversation.
21:16
But I do think in a results-oriented league, results-oriented voting system, he will look at the end of the year like a top-tier quarterback this year. I... Listen, to... I, I mean, I don't hate it 'cause I kinda like...
21:27
If you have conviction, you know, knock yourself out. I don't, I don't have that conviction on Philadelphia. And by the way, Dustin does not seem worried at all about the Washington Commanders.
21:35
[laughs] I just do not understand that. But the... What I would suggest in these sort of things too is, again, it's the, it's the, the frequent PSA for alternate season win totals.
21:46
Like, to me, that's also a market that is...
21:49
I think if we talk about what's mis- what is possibly mispriced throughout the sports betting landscape, um, from sport to sport, year to year, I do think that that market, that the notion that that market would be properly priced is probably a, a bit of a fallacy.
22:05
So I think there's... If you think they're gonna be that good, maybe there's some plus money prices and something like that. But I hear what you're saying. You just wanna put tentacles out there for everything.
22:12
Yeah, over 12 and a half at DraftKings plus 320 right now. Is there another team besides the Eagles that one could do that with? Or is that just the one you have the most conviction on?
22:21
That's the one that I really think the market's off on. I respect your game. I don't do it necessarily, but I respect your game on that.
22:30
I hope you crash and burn 'cause I'm a Skins guy, but I, but I respect your game on that. Uh, interesting. So you will do this?
22:36
No, I'm, I'm still questioning whether, but I know I will have Saquon Barkley Offensive Player of the Year. That much you'll do. Right. Which... And what's the number on that? We don't know yet. 16. 16.
22:44
Oh, that's not bad. Falik on the other side. Soccer, golf, and more next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Next week we're releasing our VSiN NFL betting guide.
22:57
This guide is your ultimate resource for the football season, packed with detailed team, division, and conference analyses, and of course, best bets for the upcoming NFL season.
23:05
To get the guide, you must be a VSiN Pro subscriber. Right now, you can sign up for a VSiN Pro annual subscription for just $199. That's down from the regular price of $240.
23:13
Plus, we're throwing in an extra month absolutely free.
23:16
And with a VSiN Pro subscription, you'll get exclusive access to premium analysis, expert picks, and advanced betting tools that'll give you the upper hand all year long.
23:22
Do not miss your chance to sign up and stay ahead of the NFL season. Visit vsin.com/subscribe right now. Use promo code ANG to claim your discount and bonus month. That's ANG, A Numbers Game, as Kelly would say.
23:35
It's vsin.com/subscribe now, and use promo code ANG. It's Gil Alexander, Dustin Swidelson in for Kelly Bidlin. Dustin, uh, we're borrowing from Sharp Money for the day, though you're gonna be on Sharp Money. Yeah, yeah.
23:46
Are- It's a two-for-one special. [laughs] It is a two-for-one special. It's like, uh, it's like when they give, uh... McDonald's gives a couple of those as a two-for-one. Yeah. Unfortunately, I know those all too well.
23:57
Yeah. No, sorry to bring that up. Um, is the lack of ambient noise tripping you out at this hour of the morning? Yeah, it's very odd. Um, obviously, I have a little PTSD walking in when the...
24:08
it's still dark out here as I did this morning from when I used to produce Follow the Money. Yeah. If you send me a email in all capitals, like, capital letters- [laughs]... like Paulie Howard, I'll have real PTSD.
24:16
[laughs] Um- He hasn't found that button yet... but it is weird being here this time of day for sure. Yeah. Yeah. I, it's, it's super loud when you're here Oh, yeah, in Sigma Derby there's people yelling the entire show.
24:27
Oh, we got that too. Yeah, the entire show. Yeah, we got that this afternoon. It's coming. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, courtesy of the Progressive guest line, you may know him as The Bear.
24:34
We know him as Chris Fallica from Fox Sports. He joins us from lovely Los Angeles. What's happening, man? So, so, so it's like the day-night double header for, uh, for Dustin there.
24:44
I know they'll remember the old baseball, like, used to get like the day-night, stay there, like, be a game like at, like at 2:00 in the afternoon, and then there'd be one at 7:00. Yeah.
24:53
So that, that's what we got for Dustin there, the early and the late. Yeah. No, we're, we're doing, we're doing good. Yeah, you'd be very happy of what, what I did yesterday. What'd you do?
25:03
I took a field trip to Arizona. Oh, wow. I, I, I had s- I had some, I had some, uh, some bets courtesy of DraftKings that I needed to use or else I was gonna lose 'em.
25:15
So I just hopped on a, a quick little flight to Phoenix, literally spent four hours in the Delta Sky Club at Phoenix Airport, and threw, threw in some, uh, some stuff on DraftKings, and then flew back to, uh, flew back to LA.
25:27
That is impressive. I was gonna say, you drove? No, got on a plane. No, no. [laughs] I was gonna say- Exactly...
25:33
Chris was here one time and he's like, "Hey," w- we went to dinner, uh, at the Aria, and so it's like, I don't know, 9:00, and he's like, "Hey, can I borrow your car? I need to go to Arizona." I thought he was joking.
25:42
I'm like, "Yeah, funny." He goes... And then the next day I was like, "Are you serious?" He was like, "Yes, I was." I was like, "Oh, sorry." So these bets were just placed in the airport? You flew to Arizona? Oh, yeah.
25:51
Yeah. In the airport, fly back? I flew to Phoenix. Yeah. Mm-hmm. I love this. Yes. Bro, that is... Can I tell you something? Like, the more this is sinking in, that is such a player move right there that you just made.
26:01
That is, that's the extra mile with the, with the plane. Getting on a flight- [laughs]... hanging out in the airport. What was the, what was the, uh, time you spent in the airport before you, you s- headed back?
26:11
Four, four and a half hours. This dude. Good for you. Okay. Well, you have a bunch of picks here, and I wanna get to these. I do. Sorry. Starting, starting with the Stanley Cup Finals, game six tonight.
26:21
The Edmonton Oilers trying to make history, and by history I mean trying to be the fifth team ever in the NHL playoffs to come back from a three to nothing deficit to win a best of seven series, and trying to be the second team ever to do so in a Stanley Cup Finals.
26:35
The Toronto Maple Leafs in 1942. Man, 82 years ago, the only other team, uh, that could have pulled off this feat. Do I have that right, 82? Yes. All right. You, however, do not think this is going to happen.
26:48
You are anti-history. Well, no, no, well, I'm anti-history 'cause I do have a big Panthers, uh, position here to w- to win the series.
26:57
I'm, I'm curious to get, to hear what Eddie McNeil would, would s- get the, the vibe up there, uh, in Edmonton prior to game six then and knowing that he lives up there. Uh, but I like Florida tonight. I think they win.
27:08
I, I think this has kind of gone a complete 180 from where we were, uh, when the Panthers took the three-nothing series lead.
27:15
Uh, I, I think the fact that they're back in Edmonton, I think most people are kind of in the s- in the thought like, "Oh my God, they're gonna, they're gonna do this now, and Connor McDavid's gonna win the Conn Smythe."
27:23
And I think he is gonna win the Conn Smythe, but i- if you look at what happened in the previous game, Florida completely dominated basically the last
27:32
35 minutes or so o- of that game, and were extremely unfortunate to not tie that up.
27:38
Um, I, I think you're looking at Edmonton with another short-handed goal, goal off the one of the, like, the keyster of the player in front of the net. Keyster.
27:45
Uh, they, they were, th- they, they were fortunate, I, I think, to win that game, so I took Florida tonight, uh, plus, like, what are, what are we, what are we looking at right now? Like 105, 110, something like that?
27:56
I'm seeing, yeah- I think at the game two... even money on our screen, yeah. Yeah. Yeah, so I, I took 'em 105, plus 105, uh, so not, not as good of a price right now, but not, not bad.
28:06
But, uh, I have them to win the series already, and I, I, I doubled down tonight. I think the series ends tonight. Okay. Um, strong conviction. We shall see.
28:13
Uh, thank God for hockey, 'cause basketball certainly didn't, uh, extend. [laughs] All right, we're, we're gonna cr- we're gonna crescendo to, uh, to baseball and football, but let's get these others out of the way.
28:23
Mm-hmm. LPGA, Nelly Korda, where do you stand with her? She's one shot back. Uh, she's one shot back and she, she made everything on the greens yesterday. Uh, Lexi Thompson leads right now.
28:34
She, she's at mi- and, uh, Nelly's at minus three. I played her at three to one live t- to win this tournament. She was as high as 10 to one returning, and I, I messaged you and, uh,
28:44
and, uh, Will, like, I'm not playing her at 10 to one. It's a, it's kind of an off-market price, uh, I thought at that time. So I have her to p- again, double down.
28:52
Played her 10 to one pre-tournament, and I think, still think three to one, one shot behind Lexi after... W- with the way she putted yesterday a- and the course kind of fits where she is.
29:00
Look, I know she missed the cut in the previous major, but, like, she basically had, like, a bad half hour i- in, like, the previous two events, so it was, like, basically a hole or two.
29:09
And outside of that she played really well. So I, I think, I think she's gonna wind up winning this week, so three to one I think is a good number there. That's a good way, that's a good way to put it, a bad half hour.
29:17
Uh, okay, you are, by the way, and then let me just also respond to the Eddie McNeil comment.
29:21
I texted, pull back the curtain, I texted Eddie McNeil 'cause I wanted his on the spot or, or down on, boots on the ground Edmonton report, and, uh, he, uh, he lost my number apparently. Oh, that's disappointing.
29:32
It's very disappointing. Uh, let's go to soccer for a second. You are in LA, obviously, with Fox to cover not only Euro Cup 2024, but also Copa America, and you have a play in both.
29:42
Yeah, I, I played under two and a half in France, Netherlands. I know, uh, it looks like Mbappe is going to play.
29:48
But the, the way the French play, especially in the group stage, um, they just sit, sit, sit, sit, and wait, and counter.
29:55
A- and I think that kind of style here with Virgil van Dijk and Ake a- and the back line that the Dutch have, uh, I, I don't know if they're necessarily gonna get a ton of chances.
30:05
Uh, Netherlands looked some- somewhat dangerous, uh, i- in the first game where they, where they did get the comeback win, uh, over Poland.
30:13
But, but I do think at the same time, uh, the, the fact that both teams are sitting on three points,
30:19
I don't think either would be disappointed to come out of here with a, uh, with a point and be sitting on four going into the final group stage match. So I played under two and a half. We could have a pretty, uh-
30:30
It's hard to say a, a match with Kylian Mbappé and, and all the stars on that French side could be kind of a, a snoozer, but I, I, I don't think this is gonna be a thrilling match.
30:39
I think this is gonna be a very technical, strategical match, so I played under two and a half. And then in the n- in the, uh, in the Copa game tonight I, I took Chile plus 115 against Peru. Uh, Peru i- is a team kind of
30:52
in between, like, really old or really young. Uh, they're, they're one of the w- I think they are the lowest ranked team in, uh, football right now. So they, they, they... I, I... They don't have any stars really.
31:04
It's nowhere near the same team that they had, uh, roughly about eight years ago or so.
31:09
At, at least Chile still have, uh, Alexis Sánchez and Pulgar and Vargas in goal, like, s- players who can get it done, uh, at this level of competition. So I took Chile plus 115, uh, to win today against Peru.
31:21
All right, we got a couple really long shots here. Mm-hmm. One is for AL MVP. What is your thought? I, I... W- look, I, I... It's a dart throw, but in...
31:31
Put yourself in a, in a, in a mindset here where maybe Aaron Judge gets hurt, maybe the Orioles wind up winning the AL East, and the Minnesota Twins maybe make a comeback, uh, in, in, in the Central.
31:43
And that all coincides with Roy Lu- Royce Lewis coming back.
31:47
Uh, he tore his hamstring, I think it was, uh, g- first game of the year, and since coming back I think he's got, what, nine homers in 53 at bats or something like that. He's hitting close to 380.
31:59
So, like, what, what happens if the Twins wind up winning this division, and it coincides with Lewis coming back, and the Yankees maybe not winning, uh, that the Mariners really don't have an MVP candidate.
32:10
I played him yesterday at 200 to one to win AL MVP.
32:13
Now, I, I've certainly made worse stupider bets in my life, but I don't wanna say I think this really has a chance, but, uh, I, I'd be surprised if Lewis's price didn't get super short, uh, by, by the end of the year, especially, uh, i- if the Yankees wind up not winning that AL East.
32:29
Royce Lewis slashline right now 377, 452, 925. Pretty, pretty good. And then of course, your bread and butter is college football. You have a cagey Heisman bet.
32:40
Yeah, I, look, I don't think people expect anything other than Will Howard to be the Ohio State quarterback this year, uh, especially being that they, they went after him in the AL, and they brought him in 'cause they were kind of uncertain.
32:54
I can see a scenario where Howard starts the year at quarterback, however they don't play anybody early on, and we see Julian Sayin get a good bit of time, uh, to develop throughout the year.
33:06
Uh, Sayin is a du- He originally committed to Alabama, and wind up transferring to Ohio State. He is a dual threat guy who, uh, w- was the n- number one quarterback in the country.
33:16
I played him at 100 to one to win the Heisman, 'cause I think there's a scenario that by the time the big money games for Ohio State, Oregon, and Michigan, uh, at the end of the year happen, Sayin's the starting quarterback, and I'd like to be holding 100 to one on a team that's gonna be one, number one or number two in the country this year.
33:31
That is an outstanding Chris Felica segment right there. Thank you, Chris. Enjoy LA. Appreciate you guys. Man got on a plane, made a bet in Arizona, flew right back. Good for him.
33:41
We're coming back with Jason Weingart next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on the numbers game live from Bar Canada at the D, downtown Las Vegas.
33:56
Bar Canada, the barrage, if you're, uh, listening in Spanish. It's Gil Alexander, Dustin Swedelson in for the vacationing. Kelly Bidlon, is that how you pronounce that?
34:05
Um, Kelly will be back not next week, but the week after. Wyatt Tomchek in for Kelly Bidlon next week. How about that? We got tweets that beat in the book. Uh, Mike Alvarez. Um, [laughs] he's imitating my mom.
34:16
"Gilly, why you, uh, no go to sleep yet? You better don't give trouble to get up for school in the morning." I guess I was up late tweeting something. Uh, this is from, uh, BTMSFMPP, at BT underscore financial.
34:27
He said, "Reggie Jackson, straight talk, no chaser. Uh, #negroleague. Raw and honest reflection. The diamond is our civil rights laboratory." Uh, it w- we'll play that audio later.
34:37
It was, it was just absolutely, um, an amazing two minutes of television. This is from, oh, Dad Doesn't Chase.
34:44
May have found the morning that the Supreme Court ruled pass but unconstitutional, and me or Jorge Mondaca when I... Thank you, Dad Doesn't Chase, if that's the case. Manny Davison.
34:55
Wow, Dad Doesn't Chase, that is a find. Manny Davison, "I'm going to love this dynamic between Dustin and Gil this morning. Two of my VSiN favorites." Thank you. That's very kind of you. L'chaim.
35:05
We got some l- [laughs] L'chaim is right. It's absolutely right. Uh, let's see. Uh, this is Jeff Row Records. "I have a ton of Mets fans," reacting to your comment about being a defeatist Mets fan that you are. Oh, yeah.
35:16
He says, "I have a ton of Mets fans in my life. No one hates the Mets more than Mets fans. It's hilarious." It's really true. It, it ruined...
35:22
The trajectory of my life would be t- I would not be sitting here talking to you, no offense to you, but I would be way more successful if I just chose to not be a Mets fan.
35:30
You truly believe that if you, if you were a fan of another baseball team, you would have had untold millions by now. Did you ever go to a game and have to watch Tim Bogar and Chico Walker up the middle? 'Cause I did.
35:41
I did not. Changes your whole mindset for life. Charles in Connecticut. "My feed has been filled with Reggie. I didn't want it, I didn't watch it despite the pleas to take two minutes to watch.
35:50
Just watched after your mention, 'cause I know if you say it's worth my time, it is." Oh, thank you, Charles. He goes, "Disturbing, moving, sadly not overly surprising, uh, even in the '70s and '80s." Thank you.
36:00
Uh, James Sott. "I almost spit out my coffee when you said Pagula up a break in the third. What can, what can go wrong?" [laughs] And then Trip Tepper reacting to, uh, Chris Felike.
36:08
He said, "The proper nomenclature for a numbers game isn't keister, it's tuchus." That's correct. Uh, "Fun segment, and love the hardcore betting airport run to fire bets in Arizona." Yes, we can't let that slide by.
36:19
Chris Felike got on a plane yesterday. He woke up in LA, he's like, "Eh, what am I gonna do today?" 'Cause I'm not thinking Felike is a beach dude.
36:25
So he gets on a plane, he's like, "I'm going to ph- I'm going to Arizona. I'm gonna make a bet in the airport and then I'm gonna fly back." And that's what he did. What did you say? He's about that life.
36:33
Yeah, you're either about it or you're not. Going on a plane Flying to Arizona, not seeing the Hoover Dam, not seeing the Grand Canyon, unless you have a window seat- [laughs]...
36:44
placing a bet in the airport, never leaving the airport, and flying back, that is about that life. [laughs] It's... He, he got thug life tattooed on his, on his abdomen earlier today.
36:53
Um, yes, the Hoover Dam thing is the best. "Oh, sir, are you here to see one of America's great engineering wonders?" "I am not. I am here to make a wager." "Thank you. Appreciate you wondering, though."
37:02
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, this guy would get on, on a, on a plane to, uh, make a bet in another state, I'm sure of it.
37:08
It's Jason Weingart from Under a Cloud of Smoke in Southern California courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. @spreadapedia is where you can follow him on Twitter. What's happening, Jason? Good morning.
37:18
I don't know if I'd get on a plane like that to make a bet. I'd probably just invest in technology that allowed me not to have to go anywhere. Ah. Much more clever, much more clever.
37:27
That's what the real- But if I couldn't- Yeah... if I couldn't, I would get on a plane and do it. Just, uh, for those in the know, that's what the real people about the life do.
37:34
Get a little tech- Not that I, not that I do that. Allegedly.
37:37
No, I don't even have a- [laughs] No, I don't even have accounts with most of these places 'cause gam- [laughs] I'm, I'm waiting for gambling to become legal in California so I can scoop all the bonus money.
37:46
Jason just heard that this happens, right, for people. Oh, I've seen, I've seen it. Y- I've seen it. Yeah. Not, not heard. I've seen it. That's right. Listen, uh, uh, I hope you're doing okay this morning.
37:55
What, what are you betting on in baseball so far? Anything today? I'm actually about to go look through the, uh, the futures market, run through some futures today. I see Luis Gil finally had his, uh- Yeah...
38:08
his bad, bad game yesterday. I hope we can, uh, that, that, that national nightmare is over, is him being the- Yes [laughs]... the favorite in the, the rook, the Rookie of the Year market.
38:18
But, uh, yeah, I'm still, I'm still looking through the, the games today.
38:22
I didn't actually see any edges overnight, which is interesting because one of the differences between this year and previous years past is I would rarely have full days where I have no bets in, in baseball.
38:37
But this year, you know, it's, it's common. I'd say, like, maybe once a week I just look at stuff and I'm like, "There's nothing to bet tomorrow," which is, you know, challenging when you're trying to do content.
38:47
But, you know, it is. Why do you think that is, Jason? Is there a reason for that, do you think? Has the game changed- Mar-... in a way? No. I mean, markets just get sharper.
38:55
It's, you know, there's so much, there's so much stuff in sides and totals where people are like, "Oh, it's this umpire, you know, and he's 13 and 3 to the over." Like, none of this stuff is factored in already.
39:07
Um, I think a lot of the stuff that we think, you know, is, is an edge is already factored in, honestly. You know, I wanna...
39:15
I don't wanna gloss over the Luis Gil comment because there's gonna be some people listening who are like, uh, there's gonna be one of two... There's gonna be one of three responses.
39:23
One is gonna be like, "Oh, wait, tell me more." One is gonna be like, "Oh, how'd these guys know he was gonna regress?" And the third is probably like, um, you know, "Ooh, w- why, why would you think such a thing?"
39:33
Um, the reason that the Luis Gil regression was predictable, and this we do for starting pitchers, um, if you are immersed, if you're betting baseball and you're not immersed in a page like, in, in a site like FanGraphs, these are the ki- L- Luis Gil is a great example of someone in a small sample size.
39:50
Remember, we're just in the middle of June. We're not even at the All-Star break, where... And this is after he got tagged yesterday by the Orioles.
39:57
By the way, Juan Soto didn't help things with his first miscue on the, in that game. But Gil has a 222 BABIP. This is after yesterday.
40:06
222 BABIP, 7.1% home run to fly ball rate, uh, and not to mention a, a strand rate that now is still teetering next to ei- close to 80%. What all that means is...
40:18
And by the way, a really high walk rate, too, like, over four and a half walks a game. The, the BABIP is that is what the pitcher is not in control of.
40:27
So once the ball hits the ba- batting average on balls in play, the league average was always, like, 298. Um, I think it dipped to, like, 290 one of these past years. But it's always right cozied up to 300.
40:39
When you are at 222, which he is now, and he was even lower than that before yesterday, you are just being really f- you're just getting really fortunate, where the batters are only hitting for an average of, of that on, uh, balls in play.
40:53
Home run to fly ball rate, when it's as low as his, that means you're getting a lot of, you know, wall scrapers that are getting caught that aren't going over the fence. And when you're...
41:01
And, and the strand rate combined with that high walk rate, this is what Blake Snell overcame for an entire year last year. But mere mortals like Luis Gil, you keep putting guys on base,
41:11
eventually you're not gonna strand them, right? The left on base rate. So that, that I just wanted to clarify on the Luis Gil. Uh, do you have, uh, women's golf? Are you on, uh, anybody in this tournament here?
41:21
I have some money on Lexi Thompson, actually. She was one of the three ladies in the three-way playoff I lost last week. She shot minus four and is the first round leader, uh, this week.
41:31
My, my reasoning for betting her, though, is kind of stupid. Um, I can't, I can't say it's the sharpest thing I've ever done.
41:37
But this, uh, this guy I follow on Twitter, I honestly couldn't tell you anything about him or if he's sharp or not, but this guy I follow on Twitter was talking about using the, uh, the new AI models, you know, uh, ChatGPT and whatnot, to predict golf winners.
41:52
Mm. And he said he asked, he asked ChatGPT who was gonna win the, uh, US Open last week, and it said Rory was gonna win. And honestly, Rory did almost win.
42:02
I mean, how often are you gonna miss three-foot putts like that to really blow it? And he said, so he tried it again this week, and the, the, the model or the AI model, whatever, told him Lexi Thompson was gonna win.
42:13
So I said, "All right, fine, I'm just gonna try it and see what happens." Um, so let's see what, uh, AI can do with golf betting this week. Well, Lexi Thompson, one stroke lead heading into round three.
42:23
I'll say it again. Yeah. What could go wrong? No, round two. Round two. Oh, heading into round two. Pardon me. Yes, you are correct. Heading into round two. So still, still got a, still got a long way to go. Yeah.
42:30
But, uh, yeah. That's always good when, when it at least backs up whatever your- Yeah... you know? It's- Whatever stu- stupid angle you had. It's funny, the AI thing is interesting, right? 'Cause I'm sure you were...
42:41
That, that's why you were drawn to it, right? Where it's sort of like even AI doesn't know that Rory's gonna gack a couple putts, you know, within four feet.
42:51
Um, and I'm curious to what ex- Like, is this your first kind of foray into this at all? Very much so. I mean, I'm very limited on AI, and emerging tech is not always my thing.
43:02
But, I mean, I honestly do believe it's here to stay. It's, it's gonna take a lot of our jobs. It's, it's gonna change the sports betting industry, for better or worse, you know?
43:10
It's, it's coming, and it's coming, it's coming for our jobs, you know? Oh, uh- It's, it's here.
43:16
I mean, if we really wanted to get into this conversation, 100 years from now, who knows what the world will look like, right? Like hundred- 100, two. Hundred, yeah, two. Maybe a generation from now, right? Not even.
43:24
You're saying two years. But I, what I'm saying is it'll change absolutely in so many ways in the short term. But what I'm talking about is, like, a world that you and I wouldn't even recognize down the road.
43:37
Like, it just- Oh, I think it's, it's quicker. It's gonna be here much sooner than you realize. Oh, I'm, I'm, I'm aware of all of the, the predictions of it. I think, again, what I'm referring to is, is this earth?
43:50
[laughs] That kind of thing. Oh. Yeah. Yeah. I don't know about... Yeah. But, um, what I do know about, I just wanna talk about Jackson Merrill for a minute. Please. He's been on fire for the last week or two.
44:01
And when I look at the National League Rookie of the Year market, I wanted to point out Paul Skenes isn't gonna win. He's not gonna pitch enough innings. If he's not gonna win, then the, the winner's behind him.
44:11
I think Jackson Merrill's still a good price if you can get over 10 to 1. Justin nodding furiously. Do you like that? I agree. Paul Skenes is getting shut down. It's someone else. Yep. Okay. Thank you, Jason.
44:21
Appreciate it. Pleasure. I'll talk to you guys later. Jason Weingart. Nice talking to you. Yeah. You guys met for the first time. Yeah. Paul Carr on Euro 2024 on the other side. Next.
A Numbers Game
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