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Jun 21, 2024
A Numbers Game | June 21, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | June 21, 2024 | Hour 2
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44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. So, on those idiots who believe in analytics- This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
0:12
VSiN.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. It's all proudly brought to you by DraftKings here at Bar Canada at the D. It's Gil Alexander, Dustin Sweetelson, kind enough to do double duty today. Two for one.
0:23
Not only is he, uh, filling in for Kelly Bidlin this morning on a numbers game, but also filling his typical role as, uh, Patrick Maher's co-host and producer on Sharp Money, 6:00 PM Eastern, 3:00 PM weekdays, including today.
0:36
And you, you started the show by saying you are, you are a doppelganger for Kelly, just different coloring.
0:39
Yeah, I think there's a, a section of the audience waking up right now who is, like, color adjusting their TV set, 'cause they're like, "Wait, Kelly's hair is darker." [laughs] I'm not sure what's going on here.
0:48
No, it's just another fat guy with a beard. That's all we have going on here. Also, Gil, I love the way you're like, "Oh, he's kind enough to come here," as if they gave me a choice. [laughs] I was trying to hook you up.
0:57
[laughs] I was trying to, I was trying to make it seem like you were like, "You know, I'd like to do that show." No. I'd like to work twice in one day. Oh. Who doesn't want to do that? Bro, I did it for two years.
1:05
[laughs] Yeah, that's crazy talk. Yeah, I don't know what I was doing. Um, we get tweets, we get texts.
1:10
Michael Montesano, who was the, uh, Circa Booby prize winner in, uh, the first Circa Millions, he says, "I have Jackson Merrill 50 to one. Let's go." Also have Skeens 25 to one, he says.
1:20
Uh, this is from [laughs] Richard Palma. Richard Palma said, uh, "Shabbat Shalom. Dude, triple tribesman Friday." L'chaim, as Dustin said.
1:29
And then, uh, Fezzik, who's gonna be joining us, Steve Fezzik is gonna join us for, uh, for three segments here, uh, momentarily, who you are, you and Patrick are super familiar with, 'cause y'all have him on all the time.
1:38
The only back-to-back winner of the, uh, Hilton Super Contest back in the day.
1:40
He was commenting on our talk about, uh, you know, the monthly season wins in baseball, and, um, I wanna get his exact quote, but I don't have it. We'll have him here momentarily.
1:50
But basically he was saying, "Think about how difficult it is to win that, and then think about how difficult it is to win some other season long stuff." Did you get that text as well? Yeah. Uh- Yeah...
1:59
also, uh, he, he doesn't know this, but we're gonna see if, uh, something I'm doing lately that is currently three and two this week, this new strategy I have- Oh, he's gonna kill you...
2:08
if I'm gonna make his head explode- Oh, his-... when he tells me it's not positive EV, you're an idiot. Du- Dustin sent me something that we wanna talk about.
2:15
I'm like, "Save that for Fezzik," just 'cause I wanna see Dustin just get destru- [laughs] just get screamed at by Steve Fezzik. Uh, here's what his comment.
2:22
He goes, "MLB best records June shows how damn hard it is to hit 70% for a year in a contest. You've got teams that are playing 600 ball and none of them," um,
2:32
uh, it's, he, he messes up with the type 'cause he voices it. "None of them are you been able to hit 700 ball for a 20 game small trial." What he's, what he's saying is, it's just,
2:41
yes, there's always someb- some team, I believe, that catches fire, is what he's trying to say there. Well, we'll get him. It's, it's as if we don't have him. We'll have him on. We'll talk to him.
2:48
Vo- voice to text, by the way, that is an age thing. He's, he's, he's old. He's old. He doesn't, he doesn't have the strength to use his fingers to actually text us something.
2:57
Uh, Paul Carr joins us from Topeka, Kansas, everybody, from the Heartland, uh, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line to talk some soccer with us. Um, but also, uh, a little bit of, uh, Willie Mays as well.
3:08
Before we, uh, before we get to you, Paul, thank you for, for joining us. Let us play a little Barry Lamar Bonds. This is, uh- [laughs]...
3:14
Willie Mays' godson, uh, before the game yesterday on Fox, uh, talking about the event itself. This is on the Fox desk yesterday. Facing Satchel Paige. Facing Satchel Paige.
3:27
Set up, but we had a conversation earlier, and we were talking about the players that you would want to play with that played against the Negro Leagues.
3:34
Now, playing against both of you, you two were probably two of the most confident players I ever played against. Tell me right now on the spot, what would you do against Satchel Paige? Me? Yeah, you. Gone.
3:47
[laughs] You done lost your mind, Jeter. Gone. [laughs] Simple, gone. Read about it on ESPN, Fox. [laughs] What else you wanna talk about? Yes. Yes. You gotta believe in yourself.
4:02
If I don't believe in me, who gonna believe in me? That's right. I'm a drag button. Derek, you said- I'm a drag button. [laughs] I'm gonna take all those people off the board. We gonna draft first. Satchel Paige gone.
4:12
You done lost your mind, Jeter. Not lacking for confidence, Barry Bonds. Um, who, by the way, I'm sure the Fox people were thrilled when he threw out ESPN in the middle of that. I'm sure they were thrilled. Oh, yeah.
4:21
Yeah. Good job. Paul, you have, you have a Willie Mays story, yes? Well, yeah.
4:25
So my sister lives out in the Bay Area, and a few years ago she's out and about, and they're at a bookstore, and there's this line for something. She's not really sure what. And she sees it's...
4:36
She sees this, you know, the, the placard that's up is like, "Willie Mays signing autographs." My sister is not a sports fan.
4:42
She knows who Willie Mays is, so just saying something to his, you know, legacy and fame, especially out in the Bay Area. So she got in line, got a autograph.
4:51
I got a autographed Willie Mays baseball for Christmas a few years ago. Wow. Which is pretty cool. That's awesome. Yeah. Yeah. You can't... Like, his signature's not obvious. I, I opened up.
4:59
I generally didn't know who it was, but, you know, a little bit of Googling and doing the math on where my sister would've gotten something and eventually figured it out.
5:05
[laughs] Beloved by, uh, by everyone, but certainly, uh, by everyone in the Bay Area for sure.
5:11
Permanent fixture at Giants games throughout these years that I've been, that I was living there, and oftentimes in a wheelchair in the later years, of course. But, uh, just a fixture there.
5:20
And, uh, 93 years old, of course. Yes. And, uh, just a shame that he wasn't able to quite experience the game yesterday, but he did write about it a few days earlier.
5:31
Uh, okay, Paul, we have, we have soccer every which way. Um, where do you wanna start here? Uh, we'll look at Euros. Let's look at today. How about France and Netherlands today? Want, wanna start there? Let's do it.
5:42
'Cause you mentioned this game yesterday, or the day before. Sure. Yeah. Yeah. We don't have a ton more clarity on whether Kylian Mbappe would play. I think it's leaning toward that he will in some capacity.
5:52
Again, he broke his nose in the last game, uh, will likely have to wear a mask in this contest. So, but we think he's gonna play. And honestly, uh- Look, he's maybe the best player in the world.
6:01
It obviously matters who he plays. But France is deep enough that I think they can handle Netherlands without him. So I have France to win at plus 125 in this one. Again, the depth is there.
6:10
They may look a little different in how they defend and attack, but they still have plenty of options.
6:15
And the Dutch, I just, their midfield's not quite the same without Frankie de Jong, the Barcelona star who's not here because of injury. So again, going with the better team here. I like France to win at 125.
6:24
The old Paul Carr going with the better team handicap on that. Yep. Um, what about Turkey and Portugal? This is tomorrow. Yeah, this one has the, the potential to get a little nuts.
6:35
Uh, so Portugal is just loaded with attackers.
6:37
And even if you, you, you're not dialed into the European club game, just, I can just tell you they have a guy from Man City and Manchester United and AC Milan and all these different clubs, and PSG, and I can keep going.
6:49
Uh, just in, like, their front five or six. So they have, they're just loaded up top. And that's what they do. Roberto Martinez is their head coach. He's an offense first kind of guy.
6:58
And Turkey is kind of a poor man's version of that. They don't have quite as many stars, but they still tend to go for broke. So I think I like the over in this one, over three and a half plus 190.
7:08
Uh, just, it's got the potential to be open. They also both won their first games, so, you know, they're a little bit loose in this one. You know, it's not like they have to tighten up and get a point or, or three.
7:17
They can go for it a little bit more, and I think that sets up for a lot of goals here. All right, since we don't have the opportunity to talk to you during the, uh, the weekend, let's go to Sunday.
7:26
Germany is playing Switzerland. Uh- Yeah... I sent you a text. Before you, before you get into your thoughts on this. [laughs] Ger- who was Germany playing in the first game? Who did they play? Scotland. Okay.
7:37
So we're watching it, Kelly and I, right? It's on the screen behind us. I think it was right after the show, 'cause the game starts right, right after we get off.
7:44
And, uh, Germany, one of, one of their, uh, they're in the, they're in the Scotland penalty box, and one of their players just pushes one of the Scotland defenders to the ground, right?
7:55
And it sets up a goal opportunity and they score the goal. And so I text you, but I also texted Felika, who, who was on the set there, and I go, "Let me get this straight. In soccer- [laughs]...
8:05
in soccer if a defender in the penalty box so much as, like, coughs on you, right? They're like, "Oh, PK. Here. Take it." Which is essentially, right, a free goal. Like, the, the percentage on PKs is very high.
8:18
It's like, and, and a, and a one nothing, a one-nil, pardon me, one-nil lead in a soccer game is like- It is... it's like a 14 to nothing, 17 to nothing lead in a, in an American football game for God's sakes.
8:27
But an offensive player apparently can just shove a defender down and, "Oh, that's fine. Yeah, go ahead. That's, you know, that, that's okay."
8:34
And so I, I texted Felika that, and I, and he said he showed it to, uh, Alexi Lalas. And Alexi [laughs] and Alexi Lalas was like, "That is the greatest explanation of soccer I've ever heard."
8:43
Like, it's just, it's ridiculous, right? What am I missing here? I mean, nothing. I think you have a, a pretty much perfect grasp on the realities of the situation. So I, I commend you for your soccer knowledge.
8:52
It's, but, but what kind of sport are we... How is that fair? Uh, here, here's the equivalent to me is in the NFL
8:59
there's offensive pass, pass interference, I'd say almost as often as defensive pass interference, and it never gets called.
9:05
You know, the receiver just shoves the DB out of the way and makes the catch, and that's fine, 'cause, you know, we wanna see touchdowns or something. Right. But w- And, and- Right. But you don't-...
9:12
the defender pulls on his towel- Right. But it doesn't-... and they get 25 yards... it, it's huge, but it's not quite as huge as a penalty- Yes... kick, right? Correct. Like, yeah. I hear you, though.
9:21
And- Anyway, I'm sorry... there's almost nothing as impactful as a penita- penalty call. And yeah, I, I wish there was some way to, to change it. You know, there's all kinds of crazy theories out there.
9:31
Change the size of the box or, you know- Yeah... take the penalties from further away if the foul is further away from goal.
9:38
Um, my one thing I would tweak is I would just have, if you draw the penalty, you have to take the penalty. But you don't get, you know, Lionel Messi to come take all your penalties for you if you draw a foul.
9:46
[laughs] That, that's true, right. The, the Harry Kane- Yeah... axiom. I know you loved it- Right... though, 'cause you're on Germany. What do you feel about this particular match, though?
9:55
So it's important, it's, uh, to note that again, we are into the third day, or this is, Switzerland, Germany on Sunday is the first day of the third set of group games.
10:04
So you gotta know your scenarios and what's going on here. Germany has already advanced.
10:08
By game time, Switzerland may have already advanced because third place teams go through, so you gotta let the other group games play out- True... today and tomorrow. Yeah. So Germany has little incentive.
10:19
Switzerland may have little incentive. So I like under two and a half at plus 105 here, uh, because especially on the Switzerland side.
10:26
If they, you know, rest a few people or, or don't go for it in the same way because four points already gets them through, then this could be kind of a, you know, a training exercise.
10:34
They're kicking the ball around a little bit. Uh, so I don't anticipate either team having the urgency.
10:39
Uh, it's always a little scary to bet an under when Germany is involved, but getting plus money, plus 105, I'll take under two and a half for this one. Okay. Those are the three picks, uh, from Paul Carr.
10:49
Once again, um, France to win it versus the Netherlands today. Turkey, Portugal over three and a half goals at big plus money tomorrow.
10:57
And then Switz- Switzerland, Germany with the under, uh, two and a half goals for the explanation, uh, uh, because of the explanation just given. Before you go, 30 seconds, uh, you live in Kansas.
11:06
We were just talking about the game at Rickwood Field yesterday. Uh, you are close- Yeah... to the Negro League Museum. You say it's worth every moment of it there. Yep. Yeah.
11:14
I've been a handful of times, several times, and you just wander through. And if you read every single thing on there, I mean, you could be there for hours.
11:21
But there's just so much cool memorabilia, pictures, pennants, placards, whatever it is, that it's just a, a great experience for any baseball or historian fan. Okay. I love that. Paul, thank you.
11:31
Good luck with all the bets, man. You're welcome. Have a good weekend. Paul Carr, @paulcarr, the host of the Expected Value Podcast, and of course, uh, works at True Media Networks, spreading analytics around.
11:42
It's what he do. Steve Fezzik on the shield here with me and Dustin. That is next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
Don't forget to check out our website, vsin.com. Best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state, betting tools, betting guides.
12:08
If you go to the vsin.com homepage today, uh, Aaron Moore on handicapping the College World Series, Tennessee and Texas A&M. Best of three finals begins tomorrow. Aaron Moore all over that.
12:18
Uh, Steve Makinen on college football recruiting rankings. Adam Burke doing his thing every single day, including he's got Thistletown picks, the Ohio Derby. He's doing horses as well? Good gracious.
12:29
That man does it all. Vsin.com, check it out. Uh, Dustin and I decided, uh, before the, uh, last segment, we're like, "Should we let some Gentiles on the show?" And he was like, "Okay."
12:37
We decided, okay, we'll let ladies and gentlemen, he's the only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest.
12:43
Uh, you may know him as the guy who, uh, famously bet Purdue also, uh, when they were a one seed against Fairleigh Dickinson.
12:50
That sort of has been his, uh, most famous moment in sports betting over the last couple years. It's Steve Fezzik, everybody, live here at Bar Canada. How you doing, Stevie?
12:59
You know, I checked and last, uh, [smacks lips] I checked, 30 and 0 documented laying minus 2,000 or more in games not involving Fairleigh Dickinson. Oh, since then? No. Oh.
13:11
In- including that, but not involving Fairleigh Dickinson. I see. [laughs] Yeah, the last three years. I see. Yeah. Okay. Uh, wait, I have a lot of things to ask. We, we both...
13:20
By the way, you've, you, you, you and Dustin go way back as well. Oh, way back. Uh, Steve's the first person to teach me about betting. That is, that is a pretty, pretty darn good place to start.
13:32
Well, I mean, you know how dumb I was. 2016, meet Patrick Maher. First day he goes, "All I care about is that Steve Fezzik and Scott Spritzer are on the show as much as possible. We're doing sports betting every night."
13:41
I said, "You're insane. Nobody cares." Now it's my entire existence. [laughs] Yeah. What year was that where you said that? 2016. Oh, bruh, come on. No. You know, I've- Care deeply...
13:51
I'm going back, like how long I've been in the industry, you know, and I'm thinking back, I just sent a box score from 1992 to my buddy. We had a big weekend- Yeah...
13:59
in October of 1992, and I'm like, "Boy, I'm getting old." But it's really, it's... Okay, we, we do this professionally, but it's, it's really like, I'm sure you have this. Well, maybe you don't.
14:08
When I was a kid, right, I've said this many times before, I was the guy that started the football pool. I, uh, in school, who was like, didn't wanna get suspended for doing it.
14:16
And then, uh, you know, three years into it, finally I got caught, and the teacher was like, "How do I..." He got an accent. He was like, "How do I get in on this, Gil?"
14:22
[laughs] And I was like, "Oh, maybe this is something. Let's do this." And I was, you know, and then, uh, "I'll, I'll take Georgetown. You guys get the field. I'll give you five to one." Nobody taught me that. Mm-hmm.
14:31
But somehow it was in my brain that that was the proper way to do this. So I don't really know if you had those experiences or if you just came to it later.
14:40
You know, I, I would say the one thing that came to me right away was the idea of closing line value, and that if I could get a number- Oh, wow... that was better than what the market was, I was going to win.
14:50
And so, you know, no secret, like starting right about 1993, I discovered parlay cards, and everyone in Vegas and Nevada had said, "These are the biggest sucker bets of all time," you know. "Avoid those."
15:04
And the truth is, the exact opposite was true. It was like one of the greatest advantage plays you will ever see, and I got in trouble in a few places because I, you know, I was so successful with that.
15:15
But look, but literally, there was no reason for me to ever bet a game off the board. Why would I do that? I c- I can get Northwestern plus 21 and a half against Illinois, the line's 17 and a half. Yeah.
15:23
You know, by playing it on the card. But that's a fascinating thing to get. Uh, so I, you know, and again, I'll go back to how we...
15:29
Anybody who tells you they knew all this stuff when, you know, out of the womb or whatever is lying to you. So I, my rearing on that was Pinnacle used to put out a Pinnacle newsletter.
15:38
It, the, the writer was Simon Noble. Noble, right. This is in the '90s. Elihu Feustel told me many years later that he used to ghostwrite it, so it could've been Elihu. Mm-hmm.
15:47
Who, by the way, I think is just the, the smartest guy, uh, in the world and, and certainly in this industry. And by the way, sports betting might not be enough to contain him here, uh, later in life.
15:56
That's how smart he is. But, but that, the, that notion of closing line value came to me from him in the '90s. That's interesting that you, that was the first thing you latched onto.
16:06
Um, couple things that we, I wanna r- tie a bow around or wrap a bow. What's, what's the expression? Put, tie a bow? Yeah, whatever it is.
16:13
Um, before we move on to some of the stuff you want to talk about, one, Dustin and I were talking about the MLB wins in the month of June earlier, and you said...
16:20
Yeah, the, it shows how hard it is to hit 70%, because think about this. You don't have one team right now- Yeah... in the whole league that is hitting at a 70% clip.
16:30
You got the Yankees, y- you got the Dodgers, you got the Phillies. These teams are gonna win six out of 10 games, all right? So they're, they're a 60% clip team.
16:39
None of them have managed, in a small sample, 20 games, to hit 70%. So think about how hard it is to win a football contest, where you gotta make 85 or 90 picks for the year, and you gotta hit 70%. It's incredible.
16:53
It's absolutely incredible. Uh, the, the other thing is Rufus was on, Rufus Peabody was on a numbers game earlier this week.
16:59
Uh, Rufus and his, uh, team, uh, stood to lose over $500,000 on the US Open if Bryson DeChambeau won. This was what they stood to lose prior to round three. He was able to, um, mitigate that loss, about 40% of that loss.
17:16
Uh, so I think he ended up losing, he and his team ended up losing $300,000, which again, is a lot of money, but in Rufus's world, not quite as much as for you and I.
17:24
Um, and you, you wanted to say something about that conversation or, or just about hedging in general.
17:29
Yeah, so in general, hedging, most people would be better off just not hedging at all, because usually you're making a negative expectation bet and you're gonna wind up- Um, losing money doing it over your betting career.
17:40
However, there hits a point with bankroll management that if you've got a decision that's so great, like Rufus had, so if he's got a $5 million bankroll, but he's about to have a $500,000 event, he probably should be looking to protect it.
17:53
And well, one thing I wanted you...
17:55
I, I would like you to ask Rufus is he said, you know, he hedged and he bet on DeShambo on day three, even though it was a negative expectation because he had such a big position and, and it was crumbling, you know, that certainly DeShambo could win.
18:08
But then day four, Rufus, I believe, said this is a positive expectation now. Now he, he bet like $24 to win a dollar, like I did with Purdue- Yes... yeah, on DeShambo not to win.
18:19
And now crazily, he's betting even money basically on DeShambo yes to win. So he has this horrible portfolio, but you know what?
18:26
At that point, go ahead and lock in the loss be- if you think that if your numbers say DeShambo's gonna win 56% of the time, and you can play minus 110, y- just, just put all your chips in there.
18:38
Just surrender basically- Yeah... and say, "All right. I'm gonna lose whatever it is, 238,000," and just lock in the loss. You and I have talked about this before.
18:45
The thing that gets not, not lost in the conversation, but the thing that needs to be sort of stopped in the middle of the conversation and pointed out though is Rufus laying 2,400 on Bryson, you laying 4,500, uh, minus 4,500 on Purdue.
18:58
Um, you, you're very math oriented. Rufus is doing things by model. It's very precise where, uh, he has confidence in his numbers. The average bettor is not like you two, right?
19:09
He's just flying by the seat of his pants, and he's- That's right... and he's like, "This is, this cannot happen." And I'll use an example. These tails, these outliers are greater than you think.
19:18
So I'm not a hockey guy, but I'm watching game five, and I see this open net goal, and it's gonna be an open net goal, and there's some, some poor Florida Panthers Tkachuk, I think. Tkachuk, yeah.
19:29
Is, and there's not a chance. What a play by the way. There's not a chance. They can play it 1,000 times- [laughs]... and that puck, as sure as the sun's coming up on summer solstice to, you know, in the morning.
19:39
I couldn't believe he got to it, yeah. And, and, and then the laws of physics cease to apply. [laughs] That's right.
19:44
Somehow this Tkachuk's like, like c- managed to just swing his stick wildly and knock the puck, and it doesn't go in. And I, if at freeze it, I would've laid minus 4,000. That's a goal. Yeah, right.
19:56
Like one second before that. Mm-hmm. I, I agree completely. I, I think that's the, th- that's the point. What, what is the overall thing?
20:03
So what would you say is an overarching point to the average bettor, okay, who's, who's trying... Like Rufus, the thing is the Rufus case study is a fascinating one, but it's not like the...
20:14
And it's, and I'm so grateful for him to come on and share, and he's super transparent on hi- on his Twitter. But like for the average bettor who is facing, let, let's do a, let's just give a case study.
20:24
If they've hit s- I know you hate parlays. By the way, Dustin has a conversation that he'd love to have with you here momentarily.
20:30
Um, but let's say they've hit, you, 'cause you know they're parlaying- I've made a lot of money playing parlays. Okay [laughs]. Parlay cards. Then why are you so angry at people when they do them? We'll get to that.
20:37
Because you know. Okay. We'll get to that. Uh, so let's say someone's hit four legs of their five leg. Or by the way, sometimes it's like six of seven or whatever it is with some folks.
20:45
And w- what's the, what's the overarching advice you give them at that point? Is there a blanket bit of advice? Sure.
20:52
So if you can make a positive expectation bet on the opposite side of the seventh leg, go ahead and do it. Example, let's say you laid two and a half on a parlay card, right?
21:01
And that line was three all week for your s- last leg, and it's Monday Night Football. Then a three and a half pops up over at the Golden Nugget. Well, of course play the plus three and a half bet.
21:09
Take, take the whole position. Let's say you're about to win 20,000, bet 10,000 on the plus three and a half because now you've got a very positive expectation hedge. But let's say it's paying a three everywhere. Yeah.
21:19
Now you're losing money when you bet the plus three.
21:22
Now maybe you could find a reduced vig and lay plus three minus 105, and you're losing money, but then you say to yourself, "But nor- my normal, uh, normally I bet 200 to win, 220 to win 200, and now I'm all of a sudden about to win $20,000."
21:34
It's too big of a difference with a bankroll. Like, if you have a $20,000 bankroll, you gotta lock in a couple thousand.
21:40
E- even l- even as you said that though, like I'm thinking like, "Oh, there's a plus three half, a plus three and a half at the Golden Nugget."
21:45
I'm sure like most people are like, "Well, you know, even if there was, I gotta drive across town." And like th- a lot of people are like that, right? Sure. Even if they're here.
21:52
Um, but you also, you do concede, uh, that there are moments where making a negative, knowing that you're making a negative one sometimes has justification.
22:02
Exactly, especially if it doesn't cost you much, even if it's a negative expectation bet. Look at the hockey game tonight. So let's say you've got Florida, let's say you got Edmonton, all right? Yeah.
22:10
They're dealing dime lines on this game, like Circa's like the minus 111, plus 101, so it's a very small spread. They, the house edge on that's like, like, you know, 2.5%.
22:19
It's not costing you much money to bet either side to lock in a nice profit. Just to lock it in.
22:24
Or I, I was telling if you, if you have a great bet for a, for a tournament, and you have a chance to play the opponent in the final, just so that you don't lose money in the esta- Like, the, just to have that emotional thing.
22:35
Don't have to hedge the whole way. That's right. Just put something down. Right. Right. Uh, Dustin would like to, uh, ask Steve about a parlay situation, and Stevie has a game of the year in the NFL to provide.
22:46
That is next on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Next week we're releasing our VSiN NFL betting guide.
22:57
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23:03
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23:13
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23:23
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23:33
That's vsin.com/subscribe now, and use promo code ANG. Football right around the corner. How far away is the Hall of Fame game? Less than six weeks or six weeks, something like that? Exactly six weeks. Ooh. Yeah, man.
23:45
Is that possible? I gotta do a podcast during the game. I think everyone, you're gonna have a captive audience, and it's gonna be boring, right?
23:51
[laughs] Um, before we get to your game of the year, 'cause you've already... We, we were talking about this off air, uh, Dustin texted me yesterday. He's like, "Hey, I got some ideas.
24:01
What are you guys talking about on the show?" And, uh, so we kicked it back and forth. And one of the things he said, I was like, "Oh, you gotta save that for, for Fezzik." Uh, the floor is yours, sir.
24:09
What would you, what would you like to ask Steve about? Look, Steve, uh, I know how this is gonna go, but- Oh, dear...
24:14
uh, I'm doing a bit of an experiment right now, looking for these different angles with all these different baseball markets that have been up.
24:20
And I started to realize for a major league pitcher to record a win, a lot needs to go right. They need to pitch five innings.
24:29
They're, they need to le- leave the game with the lead, and their bullpen needs to hold said lead. So there's a lot of factors that need to go right.
24:38
So I started looking when I can go and bet on the no to record a win prop on pitchers who are big dogs, and I hate the matchup, and I don't see a way where any of those three things happen for them to, to record a win.
24:53
Started parlaying them together on Sunday. I did four legs, plus 110 winner. Monday, p- four legs, plus 121 winner. Tuesday, four legs, plus 143 loser. Wednesday, plus 125 loser.
25:08
Readjusted just three legs at minus 128 yesterday, winner. So I'm thinking- Up a unit. We're up about, yeah, 109. Yeah. So my strategy here is to continue find those. I'm gonna stop with the fours.
25:22
We're gonna just go down to three, and today went over at DraftKings, and I went Trevor Rogers, Miami with Joe Eades, Oakland, and Patrick Sandoval, Angels, three bad teams against bad match-ups, and I combine them, and the parlay on to not record a win is minus 102.
25:40
So I think what's going on here is I, I know Mark Borchin, uh, base winner's in on this too.
25:45
[laughs] So everyone is, like, at the Italian American Club the night before, and they're all, like, talking about- [laughs] Here he goes... how can we make Fez, Stevie's brain explode?
25:53
That's what I- Because- That's what I said to him. [laughs] We know he hates parlays. Yeah. So we can have a great conver- Actually, I love the whole concept. All right? Um, so, so lay the minus 380.
26:03
I don't care what it is. If it, if, if value is value, hey, I lay minus 4,500. [laughs] So I'm fine with laying minus 380, but why is it that someone's like, "The, our brains are programmed.
26:14
Well, I don't wanna bet 400 to win 100." That's ex- "So I'll put it into a three-team parlay, and then magically I'm not laying minus 400," but you know what?
26:22
Now you're laying even more because now you can't even shop for the best number in all three. And here's another thing, your bet sizing goes kaput because what happens, you get your three-teamer, right?
26:32
And so let's say you win the first two games. Well, now you're betting more on the Angel pitcher to not get that win. But if one of those goes down, now you're betting zero on that last leg.
26:41
So it makes no sense from a bet sizing perspective.
26:43
You, Kelly Criterion, if they're all equivalent plays, just, you know, risk your, your $200 normal bet size and lay the minus 450 if those are good bets and do it that way.
26:52
Dustin is nodding, but give me the, give me the possibility that you're actually gonna follow that advice. No, no, because what- Yeah... Steve doesn't f- 'cause he doesn't like fun, and- [laughs] You've noticed.
27:02
It's not about fun for Steve. Yeah. This is about fun. Well, to be fair- 'Cause the minus 102 makes it feel fun. Well, and it makes it feel square- Yes... which is good. So to, to,
27:14
it actually could have a place in your portfolio because if you wanna preserve your accounts- Oh, that's a good session...
27:19
and you play bets like this, I mean, i- if you were gonna make all three bets anyways and you're getting the same mathematical price, you look like a square ball, and you're much less likely to get backed off.
27:29
So it has that big advantage when you throw things into parlays like this. Trust me, they've seen how my baseball season's going so far. They know who I am.
27:36
[laughs] So if you're already down a couple thousand dollars, there's no... You, and you don't need any cover when they think you're a dummy.
27:43
So, so just to clarify for those who missed it, so what Steve is saying, the one, the, the way that that is actually a valuable one is to give the impression to the book that you are a square ball.
27:55
And so in that respect, you would endorse it. But in, in, in the general conversation of what you two are talking about, you do not from a mathematical standpoint.
28:03
And you touched on something that I, that I, I wanna seize on, which is the average bettor,
28:09
you, you, you called it, something about that minus 380, let's go minus 400, whatever it is, let alone the minus 4,500 for God's sakes. But the average bettor just doesn't want to bet that. Why do...
28:22
Isn't the biggest reason, isn't it as simple as their bankrolls are not big enough to sustain that loss?
28:30
And when I say that, the reason is, is because they're not doing it at a percentage that they ought to based on their bankroll, right? Yeah.
28:38
No one who has, I don't know, a limited amount of money in, in one of their accounts is going to size it properly to win such a negligible amount of money. That's what's at play. Well said. Exactly. Yes.
28:49
And I'm, I'm a firm believer, every game, a good rule of thumb, if it's, if, if, if it's play you like, make your swing be consistent.
28:57
So if you normally bet 220 to win 200, you're either gonna win 200 or lose 220, $420 swing. So if you're gonna bet a minus 320 favorite, well, now you can go ahead and lay minus 320 to win 100, $420 swing.
29:09
Nothing has changed. It's a normal type of swing. I will say, this is not just recreational bettors.
29:14
I would say the average smarter than the average bear, pretty good bettor, decent host, I, I've, I've heard this, uh, uh, like dozens of times, "Boy, I really like this MMA fighter who's minus...
29:26
You know, he just steamed from minus 220 to minus 280, so, um, I guess now we gotta put him into parlays." And it just, it just drives me crazy. [laughs] Your head, your head explodes. Yeah.
29:34
So, so to Steve's point, because I initially look at it and my thought is, "I'm not laying $4. I'm just, I'm not gonna do that." But I just did the math. Let's say I am right, all three do hit. Right? I am up today $77.
29:50
Now, if I parlay them, all three have to hit, and I'm up $98, but if one loses, I'm done. If one of them loses, I can still theoretically have an okay day.
30:00
Now, there are some people listening that are gonna chime in with ROI, and they're gonna say- Sure...
30:04
if you have a positive ROI and you put it into parlays, you have a higher ROI putting in a parlay, and they're absolutely correct. This is complicated stuff.
30:12
Rufus or Elle who can come on and explain it all, but the problem is under Kelly criterion and optimal bet sizing, when you play parlays, they are i- inherently more dan- more dangerous to have long losing streaks, so you have to scale back how much you're wagering on that parlay so you don't bankroll growth as fast doing the parlays.
30:29
So there's a lot, lot to chew on, but in general, I would just say unless you've got...
30:34
unless you're doing it for cover, unless you have a correlation, uh, unless you're circumventing limits, there really is no reason to be ever parlaying anything.
30:42
Cover, uh, excuse me, uh, uh, cover as in, you know, showing the book that you are square- Right... or trying to show them that you're square, correlated or circumventing limits. Those are the three things.
30:53
You also point out inherently that when you are parlaying, uh, and by inherently, I mean at the same book, that you are more than likely not getting the best number on each of the legs. That's very valid.
31:06
Um, one of the things that I know someone of, of your ilk will, will, will not necessarily recognize is that the, when the average bettor parlays, in s- in some respects, they are...
31:18
it's a bit of loss prevention in, in certain circumstances. Yes. 'Cause if they, let's say they start a Saturday morning and they have a five-leg MLB parlay, and they hit the first two,
31:30
there is oftentimes a hidden safeguard for those folks that they're not even acknowledging, which is they would be betting more otherwise and losing more, but as long as that parlay's alive, they kind of just live on, like, like someone milking a drink at a, at a video poker table.
31:45
Like, there's just a, there's a milk factor there which prevents them from greater losses. It, it's same with a poker player playing in a tournament. Yeah. You're playing an $80 tournament, how much can I lose today?
31:54
$80. You know? Yeah. It's like, like if I go O and five, and I put them all on a parlay, I'm brilliant. You know? I, I do so much better.
32:01
The one thing that does drive me crazy is the people that will play, like, a five-teamer, and then they get the first three legs in, and then they hedge the fourth leg, and then they hedge the fifth leg.
32:09
I'm like, "Well, why didn't you just play the three-teamer?" Yeah. Yeah. Why, why are you... And, and they're like, "Oh, I'm, I'm, I'm getting this great middle." No, you're, you're getting middled.
32:16
You're getting squeezed on the vig on the fourth and fifth, um, um, uh, legs of the parlay.
32:21
I'm curious, 'cause we make a joke of it, but Borchardt, Mark Borchardt, who has great numbers in baseball, but we joke every time he comes on the show, all this smart, smart stuff, and then at the end he's like, "Here's my parlay [laughs] here's my two-leg parlay of the day."
32:33
What does he say when you challenge him on that? He, he agrees with me, but he's actually right. All right? He, he is correct because he is not betting this himself. He is giving this to his clients.
32:44
His clients want to play the parlay. They don't want to play the Phillies minus 200.
32:49
So he is basically just providing his clients good plays and let, and, and suggesting they bet it like they want to bet it, so he's providing a good service to his clients that they can stomach more. So it makes sense.
33:04
Interesting. I did not know that that was his answer. Okay. Well, I believe- Yeah... that's his answer. Let's go with that's his answer. That's a logical- Yeah... you know, conclusion to everything. Yes. All right.
33:14
Steve does have, uh, praise for a certain sportsbook in town where he has made a, uh, play of the year in the NFL. Week 8, is that where it is? This one's Week 8, yeah. Week 8.
33:23
Uh, we will do that on the s- on the other side. He was asking Dustin and me, uh, what we thought the number would be, and then he was trying to, uh, you know, bet us, and he was moving the goalpost.
33:32
It was a whole thing. We'll get to that. Steve's play of the year, one of them anyway, this morning coming up on a Numbers Game with Feats and the Sports Betting Network.
33:39
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the Sports Betting Network.
33:53
Back on The Numbers Game, live here from Bar Canada at the D, it's Gil Alexander and Dustin Sweetolsen, uh, in for Kelly Bidlin. Thank you for doing this, Dustin.
34:01
I know Dustin says he's being held hostage and he has to do it, but I appreciate you doing it nonetheless. You will be on Sharp Money, uh, coming up at, uh, 6:00 PM Eastern, 3:00 PM Pacific. 3:00 PM Eastern.
34:11
Oh, 3:00 PM E- oh, I keep saying the wrong thing. 3:00 PM Eastern. Well- 12 noon Pacific... like, when you choose this career- Yes...
34:17
no one ever tells you how much time zones will play a role- Oh, this is, this is hard... in your day-to-day- Yeah... and how often you will just accidentally get them wrong, 'cause- Yeah...
34:25
as the producer texting people in multiple time zones, I try to know what time zone they're in and convert to mine, and then some of them are traveling to other time zones, and we never know what time people are on.
34:34
3:00 PM Eastern, 12 noon Pacific, 1:00 PM Mountain. There it goes. Just gotta get Mountain in there. Uh, we get tweets at Betting the Book. This is from NH Bettor, "Love the double dose of, uh, Dustin Sweetolsen today.
34:47
Worried he wouldn't be on Sharp Money." Oh, no, no, he'll be on there. Paper Mike, "Are you sure you're not filling in for Kelly because he had shin surgery?" [laughs] Well, that, so that's my bit.
34:56
I do it with Adam Burke. Yes. I did it with Kelly. I do it with Ben Wilson.
35:00
Whenever they're not on a show that I work with them on, I tell everyone to wish them well 'cause they had complications from calf replacement surgery.
35:07
Well, you know, in the case of Kelly, he actually did get injured when, when Matt, me, and him did this, uh, bet, this field goal bet. It looked bad. No. Yeah. Oh, I saw it. Kelly- Yeah...
35:16
yeah, Kelly was like, uh, we're just throwing the pa- we're just acting stupid, and we're just throwing passes, and Kelly, like, went out for a pass, and he, like, completely- I sent it to Dr. Chow.
35:25
He said he, he's gonna be out four to six weeks. [laughs] Yeah. Ugh. You and Kelly also went to an athletic thing, and you guys were, like, wearing jeans and button-downs, and Matt Brown was dressed up in Spandex.
35:34
Well, 'cause... yeah, because Matt was the one who was on, on the line there. Yeah, we weren't doing anything. Uh, Bruce Dobigan, "Watching the touching Willie Mays ceremony in Birmingham, Alabama.
35:42
What's sad is that the sports media who eat up this stuff never report- Oh, this is not true, Bruce. He says, he said, "Black America has abandoned baseball. 7% of MLB players, 12% black American population."
35:54
Bruce, that's not, th- that's not true. They've not abandoned. There is not a conscious abandonment of Major League Baseball.
36:00
There's a lot of factors that are involved in that, including facilities that are available, and equipment that is available, and there's a... It's, it's, it's much more complicated than what you're making it out to be.
36:10
Uh, Travis Sweet, "I saw Steve crossing..." This is for you, Stevie. "I saw Steve crossing the strip in front of the Cromwell earlier this week and shook his hand." This is from Travis Sweet.
36:19
He said, "He had a big smile and gave me a big hello. Super nice guy." Travis, he is. In real life, he's a super nice guy. Why is he not on Twitter, Steve? [laughs] That... There's a movie called Gung Ho! Yeah.
36:33
Where, like, the, a child is really misbehaving. Yeah. And, and so the, uh, the, the guy's boss is there, and you see...
36:40
A- and, and the Japanese child comes in and says, says, "GI Joe, GI Joe," and he's shooting a machine gun, fake one. And the, um, and the, the gung ho, um, the Japanese engineer says, "That's neighbor's child.
36:50
[laughs] That's not me." [laughs] That's not me. Uh, okay. I, I've teased this a couple times. You would like to give a shout-out to the Westgate, first of all. Yeah, so spot on with the Westgate Games of the Year.
37:02
I've got my little packet here. So we got every game, including week 18. Nobody does this. I mean, people, they, there's so much uncertainty. The squirreliest week of them all. Oh, are t- Right.
37:12
Is Buffalo gonna be playing their starters? That's right. What's going on with Kansas City and the like? And not only are they dealing every side, they're dealing every total. Wow.
37:22
And they're dealing it, here's the key, at minus 110. Not this minus 115, which is plaguing our industry, and we're seeing it even with team totals.
37:31
On week one, people are posting team totals routinely at minus 115, and one book just put up minus 120 in town on their Games of the Year. So, um- Who did that? Uh, I don't wanna say. Okay.
37:42
[laughs] So good job, Westgate. I'm t- I'm, I'm running out of places to play in the town, so I'm tr- I'm, like, mental note, let's try... Let's, let's just focus, let's focus, people, on the positives.
37:54
So Jay Kornegay, um, and his c- crack staff, great job with, you know, doing this. And so you reviewed, 'cause you want...
38:02
You're the type of guy that when you find out this stuff is coming out, you are very keen on, oh, this is actually something special. You, you recognize that immediately.
38:11
So you dive into it, and, uh, something caught your eye here. Yeah. So I, I already bet a whole bunch of these. Yeah. So I, I don't have a Game of the Year, Game of the Year, um, because I bet, like, 20 of them.
38:21
But I was just looking through the schedule and I was thinking, "Oh, this one's good." So, um- A goy. A goy, as we say on this show. I'm gonna give out a week eight play, Right Angle Sports style right now. Oh. Yes.
38:31
Are we gonna move some lines? We are gonna sell. You're gonna go week eight, go to the Westgate. Their app's open. Go to the Westgate.
38:36
If you, if you're doing it Right Angle Sports style, you have to give a, a dummy play first, and everybody has to put in their bets like- I'm gonna give the play, and it's, I'm either gonna say go- Yes, sir...
38:44
I'm gonna say cancel- That's-... or I'm gonna say opposite, oppo. [laughs] One of those three. So any of you people out there jumping the gun- That's right...
38:53
trying to take your little fat thumb and press, press enter before everyone else, no, no, no. I might go, I... This might well be an opposite play. I'm warning everyone, so don't play it. Oh, don't confuse people.
39:03
All right. Let's just do the go. Okay, we're gonna go to eight... Well, that just gave it away. [laughs] Oh, well, okay. All right, week eight, Game 80297. You see, you know I like giving rotations.
39:12
You love rotation numbers. Set up the Green Bay Packers plus one at the Jacksonville Jaguars. I can't pronounce that. Set up the Packers plus one at the Jaguars. That's week eight at the Westgate. Go. Go.
39:26
We are betting- It's, is live... we are betting the Packers plus one. My handicap is very simplistic here. When this game is actually played- Yeah... the Packers will be laying two and a half or three, I predict.
39:39
Oh, wow. Yes.
39:40
Okay, 'cause you asked, just to pull back the curtain here, you asked me and Dustin r- uh, during the, during a break, a couple breaks ago, you said, "Without looking," and we didn't, "what would you make a week eight line between the Packers at the Jaguars?"
39:53
I said, "Jaguars minus two and a half." Justin then said, "Jaguars minus two," you said? Okay. Two. And you reacted. You're like... What was your reaction to that? So we weren't, we weren't far off at all. Right.
40:04
W- well, I, I would make the case that, that the Jaguars are like the eight of clubs when... They're the most nondescript card in the deck. Yeah.
40:11
They have, like, almost no home field advantage, and they're just an average team- Yeah... with a very overpaid quarterback. Whereas the Packers are a little bit over-hyped.
40:19
They're a little bit, like, you know, g- you know, getting, you know, Super Bowl c- uh, contender, um, consideration.
40:25
But the bottom line is the Packers are, like, a, they are a clear-cut playoff team, and Jacksonville is an average team.
40:31
And so a clear playoff contender i- they gotta be laying two, at least, at the Jaguars, where I don't, I don't consider the home field to be worth more than a point.
40:40
You, you think the way, and the way that the NFL season will go, that they, Packers will end up being a road favorite there. Interesting. Yes.
40:47
So that's a go, Packers plus one from Stevie, uh, week number eight, if you have access to Games of the Year.
40:52
Did you hear, by the way, since you bring up Trevor Lawrence and this, uh, again, I've talked about it ad nauseam here, where it's, you know, absolutely this, this cruel moment in NFL franchises' arcs where they've gotta make a decision on a quarterback that they're like, "Yeah, he's good, but I don't know if he's gonna win us a Super Bowl.
41:08
But what's the alternative? Here's $250 million guaranteed." Um, did you see this proposal now where the, the NFL, a couple few, or a few NFL owners are ch- are starting to
41:19
bring up this issue where they want to give quarterbacks, we'll see if this gains steam, they want to make the quarterback position a separate category under the salary cap?
41:29
So I al- I always say the, you, you win a Super Bowl with a Hall of Fame quarterback or a quarterback who's overperforming on a rookie salary, and then you can pay everybody else.
41:38
What's happening is this very thing that I'm talking about, this cruel moment in NFL franchises' arc where they have to, "All right.
41:44
Well, I guess we're gonna have to give, you know, Kirk Cousins the whole farm," or, or, or Matt Ryan when he was in Atlanta. Drew B- You know, Drew Brees is a different example 'cause he actually won a Super Bowl.
41:54
But some of these, you understand, this, this level of quarterback, Dak, where you just don't know if they're gonna win you a Super Bowl or not.
41:59
And so the NFL owners are starting to say, a few, it's gaining steam, "Let's just give the quarterbacks their own cap." Because it's getting out of hand for that position.
42:11
Now, we'll see what the NFL Players Association has to say about that, 'cause they protect all positions. Just like NBA, they g- give them a max deal.
42:19
They, you can't, you can't give a quarterback more than 47 million a year or something. Right. Well, it, it's gonna be interesting because the, uh, the NFLPA represents all players, including quarterbacks.
42:29
So they may say, "Yeah, no, sorry, you can't do that 'cause w- we have to protect quarterbacks." Or they may say, "Well, we're protecting all these other players, too.
42:36
Maybe there'll be a trickle-down effect and the other players will get paid- Mm-hmm... more as a result of this cap." It's a separate cap where it wouldn't- Yeah...
42:41
affect the reg- the regular cap would be the rest of the roster, and then there'd be a quarterback cap for just quarterbacks. I like the way it is, because now if you wanna overpay for a quarterback- I do, too...
42:49
then you gotta pay the piper and have a bunch of crappy special teams players. I, I'm with you. It makes it more interesting. Yes. What did you determine? Well, we got a 90 seconds left.
42:56
What did, what did you determine about, have you made a determination about the new kickoff rules? Has it, has it- Yeah, I s- You have to see it first, though, don't you? Y- yeah. To, so to summarize... I'll go quickly.
43:06
Yeah. So, so you got a, your, your, your kicker is kicking off from, um, the 35, and, and, but everyone else is gonna be on the other side of the field, the receiving side of the field.
43:14
So the people covering the kicker are gonna be on the 40, and the people blocking on the 30 to 35, and there's gonna be two dudes that are returning the kick.
43:21
And I forecast the average field position's gonna be the 29-yard line. So the better field position means more scoring. I think, to answer your question, scoring will go up by about one point. The optimal kick- Hmm...
43:33
to kick- Hmm... is to k- ideally, you get a kicking specialist that can kick the most ugly corkscrewing, left-footed, if possible, hard-to-catch ball that's coming down. You'll, you'll appreciate this, Gilly.
43:44
Close to what I'll call the baseline, right there where the end zone is. Yes. Because if it goes into the baseline on, in, in the end zone on fly, you get the ball on the 20.
43:53
So if you're returning the kick, it's like, it's like when you and I play tennis, you're like, "Oh, that's a phallic duck that's gonna land close to the, the base. [laughs] Do I hit it? Do I, do I, do I let it bounce?"
44:02
Yeah. It's very difficult. You want to gi- make a tough decision for the kick returner. Wow, one point. That is your assessment so far. Yes. Subject to change- Y-... I guess. We'll see what happens. No, I'm pretty- No?
44:12
I'm, it's clear-cut to me. Wow. It's clear-cut. Not subject to change. Just under a point,.85 points. It's like this guy's confident in the stuff he says, Dustin. Dustin, round of applause for Dustin.
44:22
He'll be on, uh, Sharp Money here in a few hours. Thank you, sir. Dustin, a pleasure. Good yontif. As the college campuses protests continue. Uh, come back. Visa, the sports betting network. Enjoy.
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