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Jun 23, 2025
A Numbers Game | June 23, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | June 23, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:49
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Transcript
0:00
[static crackles] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:10
Good Monday morning to you, it is the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. It is Kelly Midland.
0:22
Good morning, sir. Hey, how we doing out there? I know you're doing good. Great Monday morning. Beautiful Monday morning. I believe doing well is the proper way of saying it in English, but doing good too.
0:33
Um, congratulations to Kelly, everybody, on a couple wins. We'll get into not only basketball, but golf as well. Uh, and thank you for listening this morning. Lots to talk about.
0:42
Obviously, OKC, your NBA champions, we'll get into that momentarily. Uh, we will talk about the golf tournament yesterday, the Travelers. Uh, we'll look ahead to Paul Spohr on baseball.
0:53
Wes Reynolds, Pacers fan, will join us. He won on Keegan too. And he won on Keegan too. So, so we, we, we, we did have the nice che- text exchange after golf pre-basketball where it was like, "Hey, that was nice.
1:06
Now we will not text to each- text each other again for the rest of the evening." Yeah. We'll get, we'll get Wes' state, uh, Wes' state of mind. And then a little later on, NBA draft.
1:14
Now that the NBA season is behind us, NBA draft in two nights, Wednesday night. Rafael Barlow from the NBA big board will, uh, will join us to talk about his thoughts on the NBA draft.
1:25
Ra- Rafael is not a bettor necessarily, but he is a draftnick. I am. I, I'm pumped to talk to him. He's heading to New York tomorrow.
1:33
Uh, I know this was his last chance for us to get him on video, but he did offer to do it on the phone from New York, uh, at the draft.
1:39
But yeah, this is, i-i- as I was talking to you, this [laughs] Rafael's not the biggest bettor. He, he doesn't even know, I don't, I don't even know how much, uh, how much of the NBA playoffs he might have watched.
1:48
He focuses on the draft all year round. That's what he does. So we got great, some draft betting questions for the man, that's for sure. Okay. All right, so we'll get into that.
1:56
Uh, obviously we start with the, uh, Oklahoma City Thunder.
1:59
Congratulations to anybody who had Oklahoma City any which way, whether you had them, uh, sometime during the season to win the NBA title, whether you had them before this series, uh, whether you had them against the spread yesterday.
2:10
If you had them against the spread yesterday, maybe, maybe tamper down the chirping on that one. Uh- Man, we closed six-and-a-half. Wow. Closed six-and-a-half on this.
2:17
OKC ends up winning by 12 in a game that, um, listen, while I congratulate everybody who has OKC, if, by the way, if you had SGA winning MVP, SGA becomes only the fourth player ever to win regular season MVP, NBA finals MVP and become an NBA champion along with, uh, these are the three names he's with now.
2:35
You ready for this? Michael Jordan, Shaq, and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Pretty good company right there. Yep. Uh, for SGA.
2:42
Uh, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, also the first player since LeBron, by the way, in 2013, just to win both regular season MVP and finals MVP.
2:49
But obviously, while we congratulate OKC, we can hold two thoughts in our heads at the same time, which is, it also kind of sucks.
2:58
'Cause obviously the game marred by Tyrese Haliburton at the 4:55 mark of the first quarter, 4:55 left in the first. With OKC up 18 to 16, he falls and pops his Achilles tendon.
3:12
Kelly, I didn't have the, uh, broadcast audio on. Did they not mention the word Achilles again? Uh, not for a while. Like Voldemort. Not for a while. Yeah. Yes. Like Voldemort, not, not for a while.
3:22
Uh, I think- I don't, I don't-... Richard Jefferson was the first person I heard to br- uh, heard bring it up. I don't know why these, why they've decided that that's like, [whispers] "Y'all can't say the word.
3:30
Can't say it." It's so clear that that's what it was. And it just- Ah, yeah. By the way, I got a lot of tweets yesterday when it happened where a lot of people were like, "You called it." I didn't call it.
3:38
What I said was, before game six, what I said was the Pacers are in this awful situation, which is now they've got to worry about the worst case scenario, which is
3:49
not only may they not l- you know, might they not win the NBA championship, but God forbid Haliburton pops his Achilles. He had the calf injury, right?
3:57
And if that's the case, you literally do it, you know, midway, past midway point of June, and so then you're absolutely out for next season, and it happened. Didn't call it.
4:08
I also, by the way, I also didn't call, c- you know, in addition to that, Kelly, I also didn't call the fact that I was calling for him not to play. It's game six- Correct. Yeah, you did. Yeah...
4:15
it's game six and game seven of the NBA finals. If he, being the athlete that he is, and the highly competitive top pro that he is, if he wants to play and he feels he can play, you gotta let him play. Yeah.
4:26
You're not gonna tell him no. The, the only thing you and I were kind of split on was heading into game six, whether we thought he would or wouldn't go, not whether he should or shouldn't go. Right. Correct.
4:36
That, that, that's for sure. The, uh, I- the one thing I guess that, that I want to ask you about this, 'cause you are the Achilles master, um, man, it's just...
4:45
W- I feel like we're seeing more of the lower leg calf tightness and then it goes. Like, e- they've been battling through this- Yeah... and then it goes. When this used to feel like more of a freak injury out of nowhere.
4:57
That's how it was for me twice. That's how it was for you too? A total freak. No warning. But, like, do you feel like that? I mean, after Duran, after this- Yeah... that it's just we're seeing more of that now.
5:05
Like, you see calf strain, and I'm like, "Oh, boy," like... I... Listen, there's a lot of doctors that have theories on this. I don't know. I don't know what the story is.
5:13
The one thing that I did hear that I absolutely disagree with is that the NBA, which is al- which is already, you know, the load management league, I, I don't wanna hear people say, "Oh, they need more load management now."
5:24
No, it's the opposite with Achilles. Like, I really do think that. Uh, I don't think it's wear and tear. Um, if anything, uh, you know, I f- I, I don't, I don't think that's the solution, but I'm not a doctor.
5:36
I've just had a couple pop. And so I don't know what the theory is, but we've had now Dame Lillard, uh, Jayson Tatum, and Tyrese Haliburton, all who wear the number zero, by the way- Oh, good call...
5:47
pop their Achilles in this post-season. And that's not to mention other injuries that we've had, obviously, right? Uh, Garland, Mobley, and Hunter with the Cavs who, uh, missed games. Garland missed multiple games.
5:58
Mobley and Hunter missed at least one for the Cavs against the Pacers. Curry's hamstring against the Rockets, uh, which effectively ended that series.
6:07
So it, I mean, that has, that's the other thing about this NBA playoffs- Marred by just carnage. I- I- I- It's another thing that feels like it's becoming...
6:15
I, I, y- first of all, I think w- there's really, back to, back to the Achilles real quick.
6:18
I think whether we talk about in the NFL too, it's ju- I think a large part of this stuff is just these guys are getting bigger, faster, stronger every single year, every single decade, and that leads to so many of these weird injuries, and I think that's part of it.
6:32
Uh, but it, it, it's become such a thing in the NBA, like not just this year, of like, you have to be good and you have to, you have to be the one of the few healthy teams that makes it to the finish line, uh, because so many teams every year have a, run into some horrible injury problem in the NBA playoffs.
6:49
Yeah. I mean, listen, uh, Oklahoma City, again, 84 wins. Tied for the third most regular season and postseason in the history of the NBA. Uh, they also put together...
6:59
Do we have Ben Fox's tweet up here by the way, our old buddy Ben Fox? Also against the spread. What an epic season, uh, for OKC. They end up winning 64 of those 84 games, Kelly, by 10 plus points.
7:13
64 of the 84 by double digits they end up winning, including last night, by the way. Uh, OKC, 66, 35 and 4 against the spread, playoffs and regular season. Um, my goodness. 65.3% cover rate.
7:29
And then there's Indiana, and again, one of the big what ifs. What if Haliburton had played? We'll never know. We'll never know. We could speculate, but we'll never know. Maybe OKC still wins going away.
7:39
Maybe they only win by a bucket at the end. Maybe Indiana wins it. Mm-hmm. We'll never know.
7:43
But Indiana, uh, five games this post-season in which they had comebacks of 15 points or more, and obviously the four games, one each series, where they did so with a, uh, right around a 2% win probability.
7:57
Um, so what could have been had they just closed it out, but then the, the Haliburton injury in the, uh, first quarter yesterday, and, and we will never know.
8:05
By the way, here underdog NBA most wins in a single season NBA history, what I was just alluding to, Thunder's 84. Only the 73 win Warriors and the 72 win Bulls had more wins.
8:18
Regular season totals, obviously, what I was just referring to. So it's just epic in any way. And again, the other thing about the game yesterday, it was still competitive, right? [laughs] 56-56 into the third quarter.
8:31
56-56. Um, oh, here's another one. Players in NBA history who won a scoring title and championship in the same season. Uh, Shay, Shaq, Jordan, Jabbar and, and George Mikan add to that list.
8:42
I mentioned it with a, uh, with an NBA finals MVP. Take Mikan off that list, and that's the list. Jordan six times. Yeah, it's, it- That's cr- He was pretty good. I don't know if you ever- [laughs] Pretty good.
8:51
He was pretty good... I don't know if you had a chance to, to watch him play or anything. Six times. By the way, in Jordan's day, he played 82 games basically every year. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
8:57
There were no such catastrophic injuries, right? Um, where was I getting at with this? I can't remember. Oh, it was 56-56 into the third quarter. That's when the nine to nothing run happened for OKC.
9:09
Three straight three-pointers, um, from Shay, from Holmgren, from Williams. That was the turnover fest that started it.
9:16
Indiana went over a quarter's length of time, and this is probably all you need to know besides the injury. From 8:32 of the third quarter to 7:29 of the fourth quarter, 7:29 left. So that's what?
9:30
A quarter and over a minute. One quarter, so 13 minutes and two seconds. Only TJ McConnell scored for the Pacers. It's incredible. It's incredible. Pa- Pacers got it as close as 10.
9:43
Uh, by the way, biggest lead of the game was 22, 90 to 68. The Pacers got it as close to 10, so the spread was in jeopardy for a spell there, but OKC wins it 103 to 91, and there you go.
9:55
Th- there was a, uh, just going back to one of my, one of my personal betting themes of this, uh, NBA finals, 'cause it only makes me laugh and I have a feeling he's gonna end up being one of my, like, favorite players in the league.
10:06
Uh, I, didn't, did you feel the slight Bennedict Mathurin vibes at the end of, like, he's gonna get this within the, within the number? Yeah. At least within our eight and a half. Yeah, I did.
10:14
Like, like, th- he's right there. I knew. Yeah. And as soon as he did that drive to the basket right away, what he, like, there was nobody quitting scoring out there like Bennedict Mathurin.
10:22
He was not gonna go down without firing some shots. I thought, I thought for a brief second he might us, get, get us within that eight and a half. Yeah. I feel like he'll have a, a, a pretty fascinating NBA career.
10:32
Oh, he's got, he's got JR, early JR Smith written all over him. [laughs] I didn't want to say. I was like, great moments interspersed with, uh, other things. [laughs] Exactly. I love those type of players.
10:41
Give me something exciting to watch, man. Uh- Uh, what a game. Y- I mean, you, you put it perfectly. The, the, uh, it's just, it sucked. I mean, even someone with Thunder tickets, right? You see Haliburton go down.
10:52
It's just, we talk about this being, uh, how many NBA finals have gone to c- gone to seven games? How many was the- That was only the 20th... it was only the 20th. We've had 20 of those. Yeah.
11:01
And you, and you get to that, and that happens. It, it stinks. Even with someone with Thunder money, it's not like, it, it's not the way that I wanted to see that game go down.
11:10
And I, and I, I, I mean, and honestly though, Gilf, it was, I was texting multiple people at halftime. I'm like, "I, I am t- I'm still terrified that this is not over." Like, this is, this Pacers team.
11:20
Felt like OKC almost had, like, a human letdown after the injury for a spell also. Yeah. Yeah. Um, anyway, again, congratulations to, uh, OKC fans, OKC bettors, and, uh, what's that?
11:33
Since 2018 now, we've had a different NBA champion every year. Mm-hmm. 2017, I believe. Yep. So we'll get into the odds for next year. What does this mean for the Bucs with all these injuries in the East?
11:45
Gonna keep you honest now. And a big trade in the NBA yesterday. We'll break it down. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:50
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:07
It's our VSiN Pro Early Bird Special. Don't forget, full VSiN Pro access until the Super Bowl. 175 United States dollars. Hell of a deal. NFL betting guide, which drops, what's that now? In, uh- Eight days. July the 1st.
12:22
Kelly, I got some homework to do. When's the deadline? Oh, you still do? Come on, Gil. When is it, tomorrow? Tomorrow. Yeah. All right.
12:28
Uh, daily best bets, exclusive betting splits, full access to the VSiN Watch app, deep analytics and betting tools. Check it all out. VSiN.com/subscribe. Full VSiN Pro access until the Super Bowl for just $175.
12:40
We- I'm pumped. I'm pumped. I, I took, like, five hours out of my Saturday and did some serious NFL, uh, diggin' and divin' and, uh, and, and maybe fired on some bets, wrote 'em up for the guide.
12:50
Ready to, ready to talk about 'em, man. Uh, these, these, these are some sample tweets from yesterday that we got here. Um, PhillyBoy, uh, LV says, "We know it every time. We've been saying it for years.
13:00
Once you've had it happen, you can tell instantly," talking about people who have had their Achilles pop. Uh, Plush Revolution, "Gil, you explicitly warned against..." [laughs] Write this out.
13:07
[laughs] This is like your JJ Spa- Right. [laughs] It's like your JJ Spawn. JJ Spawn is legit. Thurston Lawrence is not. And then we got, like, five tweets the next Monday, "Thanks for JJ Spawn."
13:16
[laughs] Uh, Kev Wil- Kev William, "When Gil says Achilles, you listen." Uh, so- God, you could see it. The replay was so gross. Oh, everybody could see it. Like I, I, uh- I, you know what? I didn't even need to see it.
13:26
I just saw him when he pounded the floor. When he was laying down and they were running the ball up court, I immediately s- I'm like, "Oh no."
13:33
I, I, so I thought it then, then they showed the slow-mo and you were like, "Oh God, I can see it." Like I had to w- I had to get off the couch and walk around for a while. It's gross.
13:41
De- Derek, you called it the other day. Topher Barrett, did you not call this? Unbelievable. Anyway, on and on and on and, and on. The, let's get to the good stuff. We'll get to golf here momentarily.
13:50
Teasers and parlays. Shout out to Kelly with the outright call on Keegan Bradley. Now that was a call. Between game seven and Kelly's outright, ANG is going to be off the hook. Um- It was a good Sunday.
14:01
But you know, you know, like, uh, Gil, we had the, uh, we had a odd conversation outside the studio probably, like, two months ago about the betting gods and how they giveth and taketh. Yeah.
14:09
Of course I got my butt kicked at the casino on Saturday night. Of course you did. But, you know, I mean- Of course you did... then so Sunday, Sunday you, you winning some back, you know?
14:15
James Sade, "I knew Kelly's gonna be super hyped to talk about his girl Marketa Vondrousova winning-" Yeah... winning Berlin yesterday and won't even comment on the NBA finals at all."
14:23
[laughs] Marketa Vondrousova has found her grass game again. Uh-oh. Uh-oh.
14:30
She won Wimbledon a couple years ago after only having won two matches on grass her entire life, then she wins a slam, and she wins a grass court tournament in Berlin. My girl with the tats. He likes the tats girl.
14:41
Tats with an A. [laughs] John Balducci, "I had Kings," uh, Keegs, that's how we call Keegan Bradley, by the way. Keegs. Ke- Keegs winner without.
14:48
I also had OKC first quarter minus three and a half, landed three via missed free throw, and SGA plus 30 points, landed 29. Sports betting, what are we doing? Um, and then there's more, which I'll read.
15:00
S- s- super jerk, not an NBA fan. Eric Biggio not an NBA fan, we're learning today via tweets. Um, okay. Ne- I gu- I guess that means they've been checking out for a lot of segments over the past couple months.
15:11
I guess so. Next year, regular season MVP. Shai, your reigning MVP. Jokic two to one, Shai plus 250, Giannis seven to one, Luka eight to one, Ant 10 to one. Wow. Wembanyama 18 to one. Um, okay.
15:28
I- I would have been there... I had not even looked at these yet. No, there's some of them out there. Or you can comment on this. Hmm. Champion. How about NBA champion? Oklahoma City plus 230.
15:37
The Houston Roquet, which we'll get to momentarily. Houston Rockets plus 750. Cleveland eight to one. Or is that plus 850? Plus 850, pardon me. Knicks plus 850. Everybody else double digits.
15:50
So Thunder, Rockets, Cavs, and Knicks. Fascinating. Here's the, here's the story- Yeah... uh, yesterday. Uh, the Kevin Durant trade. Yeah. Let, let's hit that, then we can talk odds here. Yeah. Yeah.
16:01
So the reason the Rockets are where they are is the, is the Kevin Durant trade. Here's the Kevin Durant trade. It finally happened.
16:05
Rockets get KD, a 36-year-old who will be 37 when next season begins, and the Suns receive Jalen Green, their leading scorer, the Rockets leading scorer this past year with 21 points a game, young Jalen Green.
16:20
Dillon Brooks, prickly Dillon Brooks in the deal as well.
16:24
And then the 10th overall pick in this year's draft, the 59th overall pick in this year's draft, and then four second rounders in future years, beginning with two next year. Okay.
16:36
It was interesting hearing the speculation after this trade yesterday. And what I mean by speculation is the Twitter, the Twitter opinions. Because if you, if you searched
16:47
Rockets fleeced and then Suns fleeced- [laughs]... you pretty much got a torrent of things from both sides. So, you know, I think there's, there, uh, what I'm, um, what I'm interested in here is
16:59
the Suns side of it is, is not the interesting part to me because Mat Ishbia gives me Daniel Snyder vibes, meaning that they are a wayward ship. Oh, he, he's the worst. Right.
17:08
So the, uh, by the way, they both have, like, sort of they, they earn their billions in sort of a scammy fashion also. Uh- Oh, ch- check out that Pablo Torre, uh- That's right... uh, episode if you haven't.
17:18
So anyway, the point is, is that, uh, uh, the Suns, you know, people are like, "Oh, the Suns should have gotten way more." What did you think they were getting? Uh, Dream Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler?
17:27
Like, what did you think they were getting? Did you think they were getting Sengun also here? You're, you're trading for a guy who's gonna be 37. You're not gonna...
17:34
I mean, the fact that you got Jalen Green, who again, even if you were a, like, a Jalen Green detractor,
17:41
he's still a young guy who could be a fringe all-star for some years, maybe even a legitil- like, we don't know, right, is the point.
17:49
So, and you get the 10th pick in the draft, which I know is not, like, the highest lottery pick, but still. So I'm, from what I'm... The Suns side is not as interesting to me as the Rockets side. Which is, okay,
18:01
d- here's what the Rockets did last year. They were the number two seed in the West, the packed Western Conference, and they ended up in the conference semifinals.
18:11
Yes, Curry got hurt in the, in the opening round, but who knows, maybe they get by the Warriors. Anyway, they ended up in the conference semis.
18:17
Um, so the question for me is this: If you're the Rockets, in trading a young asset like Jalen Green
18:26
Did you s- did you make it, d- did you make it so that you will also be either at, you know, uh, either get to the number two seat again this year or better?
18:37
Did you make it so that you will absolutely get to the conference finals, in other words, exceed what you did this past year?
18:44
And did you put yourself in the very small group of teams in a conversation of winning an NBA championship in the next two seasons? Because again, remember, after that, Durant's 40.
18:54
So what are we really talking about here? And my answer to that question, Kelly, is will you be a number two seed or better? Maybe. Will you get to the conference finals? Maybe.
19:04
Will you win a championship in the next two years? Doubt- doubtful, you know, still. So to me, everybody's saying who, like, the Suns got fleeced. I kind of in the end go with the opinion that this is about right.
19:17
It's about right. The Suns got just enough to make it worth their while, and the Rockets needed to make a move. They had to make a move to get a scorer, 'cause obviously that was their thing.
19:29
They needed a reliable- Mm-hmm... scorer. Yes. Which Green at his age was not. Jalen Green is not. That, that is important to establish. Yep.
19:36
So, so I get it, but, like, I think the people who are saying, "Oh, one side destroyed the other," like, I think that is just not true. So I... It was funny because it, this all goes down, I get a million text messages.
19:47
Yeah. So like you said, I could not believe the divide on this. Amazing. And then, and then, like, I, th- this, this is me. This was me with Oakmont last week. This is me, like, whenever politics come up too.
19:57
I'm like, eh, somehow I'm down the middle. I was like, I saw this come across, I'm like, "Eh, that sounds about right. Sounds about right to me."
20:02
I mean, this was, first of all, if you'd have- You're the, you're the only politics person in this country that- [laughs]... has that reaction. [laughs] Yeah. The- Kelly's like, "Yeah, that sounds about a good reaction."
20:11
Sounds about right. Sounds about right. Um, the, I think what's tough, like, okay, first of all, if you're the Suns, I could sit here and me and you could argue about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
20:21
I was very excited about him come, uh, coming out. He is still very young. He's shown glimpses of the quality scorer and quality player that he can be.
20:31
But I'm very glad you brought it up because I think last year was his real s- his real time to say, "Hey, if you're gonna be a big-time player in this league, you're surrounded by great players on this Rockets team, time for you to take a big step forward," and he didn't really, and the lack of consistency is troublesome when they relied on him so much to be a scorer.
20:49
However- But you would concede he's young enough that you don't know. However, coming back- Yeah... to, to, for the Phoenix side- Yeah... you would gladly take that because he's young enough- Of course...
20:57
that you don't know what he could turn into. Of course.
20:59
And my God, if you saw what some of the reports were for the other trade offers that were on the ta- I mean, first of all, it sounds like it was down between the Rockets and the Heat, and that's where they got to.
21:10
I saw, I saw d- reports yesterday of the Heat, what they were not willing to offer, and it was like, well, what, what are the Suns getting? Andrew Wiggins and, like, a couple second round picks? Yeah.
21:20
Like, it was, it was gross compared to what the s- uh, what the Suns ended up getting from the Rockets.
21:25
So I, like, I know it might be tough as a Suns fan out there, Zach Cohen, [laughs] to know that, like, you're losing Kevin Durant. I think this was about as best as you were going to get back. Yeah. Yeah.
21:37
Now, to switch to the Rockets side of the conversation, there's one other thing I kept thinking about all day yesterday.
21:44
I agree with you, this doesn't put them in a, this doesn't put them in a tier by themselves above everyone else. No. Right? And Kevin Durant is, is older. But this team is still s- based around such young quality pieces.
21:55
Alperen Sengun and Ben Thompson are the future of this team. What they saw with now was with the ability to go get a Kevin Durant to put them in that mix of win now. And-
22:05
Do, how many teams do you think were watching the NBA finals and said, "You know what? That team that looked unstoppable during the regular season, we can beat them. The Pacers can take them to seven games.
22:16
We can beat them if we have the right pieces"? I'm wondering how much that factored into some thinking over, over this time. Yeah. I, I'll still take the Thunder and Nuggets over the Rockets in the, uh, in the West.
22:27
I also think if KD was really serious about winning a championship, he just would've gone back to Golden State. I really do. Be like, "Well, Steph, let's go out together. Let's make a run."
22:35
Well, that, that's almost more curious thing, right? What else, what else happened with Durant around the All-Star- No... break trade, or around the trade deadline?
22:42
Anyway, that's why Houston is your second shot to win the title based on that trade yesterday, which I do not agree with. Golf. Kelly takes a victory lap next. What a tournament this turned out to be.
22:54
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23:37
Uh, it's Gil Alexander, Kelly Bilin alongside here, Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network, live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas.
23:43
Uh, before we move on to golf, uh, you wanted to say one other thing about, uh, Durant and Toronto. Kinda what, yeah, I kinda wanna say something about ProfitX too. Oh, please. The, uh, it's great.
23:53
You have to check it out no matter what state you live in that you have access to this.
23:56
But however, Gil, especially, especially in these states where there are limited outs, like, you have to take advantage of this stuff.
24:04
I know some of the e- exchange, the s- uh, and, and, and some of the lottery format stuff might be confusing at first to people and might not be the first thing you... But you have to have more than one out or two outs.
24:16
Like, you cannot be betting at one or two places. That's right. Um- It's nice. What, what's also nice about Profit is that it, it looks like a sports book too. Yes. So it will not be unfamiliar to you. Yeah, yeah.
24:25
I think there's some people struggling with that with, like, with Kalshi and some of, like- Yeah... the Brit and some of that stuff right now.
24:30
[laughs] Um, yeah, I think the other important thing about Durant, right, still one year left on the contract.
24:34
So, like, there was, uh, JVT, Zach, and I were kicking around, [laughs] like, what are the Toronto reported offers of this? And it was like, it was pretty dang light.
24:43
But he w- basically Durant had told Toronto, "I'm not re-signing with you guys." So- I, there's all that that's in the air too. I, I don't, I haven't seen any reports with that as far as the Rockets.
24:53
I would assume since he was on their shortlist that he would be willing to re-sign. But even if you're given a year to try to court the guy, right?
25:01
It, it, that's very different than s- than Durant flat out telling your team, "No, I'm not re-signing after next year." So it also kind of limits some of the teams from, from that standpoint as well.
25:11
Back to the injuries, by the way. Bucks gotta do everything to keep Giannis now, right? It's a great point.
25:15
I hadn't really thought about that last night, uh, d- until you just said it, where you're like, "Yeah, man," like, it, it's so, it's so sad to say it that way, but, like, the Bucks with Giannis are way more alive than they were a few months ago.
25:25
'Cause what Cleveland and New York are now your, your top dogs in the East- Yeah... with the injuries, the Tatum and Haliburton. The Tatum and Haliburton injuries are going to- Yeah...
25:33
severely affect that top of that Eastern Conference.
25:35
It's also, uh, I mean, not that they could have seen it coming, but I, I thought one of the teams that had gotten mentioned a little bit more towards the end with the Durant sweepstakes, the Detroit Pistons. Mm-hmm.
25:48
Like, they're right there, and how much do the... How much does Detroit basketball, would they love to be right back in the top of things? And they are, they're just, like, one mo- one move like that away.
25:58
And they have the ammunition to make a move like that. What a chasm between conferences next year. Oh, it's wild. It is, it is insane. Uh, to golf, the Travelers. Congratulations to Kelly Billing.
26:08
Congratulations Dave Ross. By the books, everybody who had Keegan Bradley pre-flop, what number did you get him at? 38 to 1. 38 to 1 here at Circa.
26:15
38 to 1, Keegan Bradley with a one-stroke victory over Tommy Fleetwood and Russell Henley, which we'll get to momentarily. Uh, for those who missed it, Keegan bogeys 14. Uh, he had an easy approach shot. He botched it.
26:31
Uh, Fleetwood had a six-footer for birdie on 14, could have put Keegan away. Instead, he missed it on the low side. So he's up three after 14. Four holes to play. Could have put him away. He's up three still.
26:43
Up three still. What could go wrong? 15th hole, uh, Fleetwood, despite a bad drive, he saves par. Keegan sinks a 36-footer, so he's down two. Uh, 16th hole, par three. Keegan pars. Fleetwood bogeys.
26:56
Fleetwood's only up one. 17th, they both par. They go to 18, both drives in the fairway. Again, Keegan down one here. Fleetwood goes first, leaving his approach short and left.
27:07
Bradley follows with the, uh, the gut punch approach shot to five feet.
27:12
And what happens is that, uh, Fleetwood not only came up six feet short with his birdie effort then, he left it just short of Bradley's mark, eventually showing him the line. [laughs] It was just double jeopardy.
27:26
Yeah, for real. Yeah. Fleet- Fleetwood misses, suddenly putting his chances of just forcing a playoff in danger. Bradley ends any hope of that with a middle-of-the-cup birdie conversion.
27:34
Picks up his eighth career PGA Tour victory. And now Tommy Fleetwood, ladies and gentlemen, who has won multiple times in Europe, becomes the guy with the most... He, he still is now, he just increases this.
27:48
He has the most top 10 finishes in the US without a win on the PGA Tour. 42 top 10 finishes without a win. That's cra- 42. 42. 42, where you're doing something two through 10. Oh my God. Um, and so congratulations.
28:05
Fleetwood gags it, and Keegan Bradley in front of a, uh, a, a Northeastern crowd, which is where he's from, generally speaking, um, they acted like it was a Ryder Cup.
28:16
I don't know how that broke out in the middle of this. He's chest bumping his caddy. I'm like, "What is going on?"
28:21
Uh, the other part of this- Well, you have the captain and one of the, one of the best European players seemingly going head-to-head at the end, right?
28:26
Well, so this, this is interesting because now Keegan Bradley, who has never competed in a Ryder Cup, just want... He's the captain this year. He just wanted to be captain. Mm-hmm. Now he has to consider playing now.
28:38
It is be- I, I make fun of Dave Ross all the time because he can talk Ryder Cup every single day of the year- Uh, yeah... for, uh, uh, for two years in between. Yeah.
28:45
It, this is gonna become a fascinating conversation da- because after that win, he, first of all, he's right up there in the rankings to be considered anyways as a captain, a captain's pick.
28:56
I have a feeling the top guys on that team are gonna make him pick himself.
28:58
Like, he doesn't, he wants to stay out of that, I think, unless he played his way in, but he's right on the doorstep, and I think as a captain's pick that the rest of the team's gonna make him pick him, pick himself.
29:09
The other, the other person here I mentioned, Russell Henley, finished one stroke back. That would've been a lot nicer, by the way.
29:14
I really hate to complain about an outright winner, but Henley getting home would've been a lot nicer. He was- What would Henley have been for you?
29:19
Uh, he was 40 to 1, but I had almost double the money on that than I had on Keegan. I was very, very bullish on Russell Henley last week. Eighth hole on F- uh, eighth hole Friday.
29:30
Eighth hole Friday, uh, Henley calls a stroke penalty on himself. Yeah. No one was watching. Nope. Was there any cameras on it, Gill? His playing partner wasn't right. There was no cameras on it.
29:42
His son saw it though, apparently. And so Russell Henley calls a stroke penalty on himself because he says on his approach shot to the green, the ball, he was in the rough, the ball moved what he called by a dimple.
29:56
Ball moved a dimple on his backswing, and he still hits it. And he hit, by the way, hits it on the green three feet away from the pin. But he calls a stroke penalty on himself. What was your comment at that point, Kelly?
30:06
What did you say? Oh, I'm sure that one won't come back to matter. [laughs] Fast-forward to the 18th, to the 18th hole on Sunday, and Henley chips in for b- for birdie.
30:20
And so there was a point there where it looked like Russell Henley could get into a playoff. Didn't happen.
30:25
But with that call, well, he, he had a third round 61, by the way, in between, should be pointed out, which got him up into this position.
30:31
He was in a tie for second with, uh, Bradley, uh, behind Fleetwood after three rounds. But anyway, so he, he ends up one stroke back. This ends up c- look, this ends up costing him.
30:43
So the runner-up, if you were the runner-up outright, you would've made 2.16. Because he's T2 He makes 1.76, so that's, so he already cost himself $400,000. By the way, I'm just using the phrase cost himself.
30:55
We'll get to the other part. Um, but four, he, he makes $400,000 less, and if it had gone to a playoff and he had won, he would've cost himself 1.84 million in the wash. Yeah.
31:12
It is, uh- So I'd, but I'd- honor, Kelly, honor has a place in this sport. Good for him, right? Right? Yeah, yeah. [laughs] I mean, it's a, it's how the game's supposed to be played, right?
31:22
It's, it's if, it, it's if- Self-policing...
31:25
it's if tennis had to be played without any officials out there and they had to call whether the ball's in and ball's out, like, it's- Oh my God, it happens all the time where they're arguing about calls. Right. Yeah.
31:34
Yeah. I mean, it, uh, look, it's, it's painful. As a bettor, it's painful. And of course, that was my, it's my, it's my classic free throw, missed field goal line, right?
31:42
I'm sure that one won't come back to matter in the end, but, like,
31:45
I gotta, uh, but, but the thing I gotta give him credit for the most, Gil, when he was asked about it, I think it was on Saturday when I f- I first heard him speak about it, it was no hesitation answer from him. No.
31:56
He's like, "It, this was," he's like, "This is how the game's played." Yep. "And my, my son got to see it." Well, it was his- "And it was a learning lesson for my son."
32:04
And I- If his son wasn't there, it probably doesn't happen- [laughs]... but his son was there. May- maybe. [laughs] Yeah. Son was there. That was, that was his snap answer, and I was like- Yeah...
32:12
"Well, it's hard not to respect that answer," uh, when he thinks he's gonna, I, it's, he's gonna make his son a better man for doing something like that. Yep, he will. And he probably will. Yeah.
32:22
But oh, boy, Russ, just let, let it go next time, man. Just let it go. Sure, there's a lot of sympathetic bettors who had a ticket on Russell Henley who feel a little differently about it.
32:32
Which, which you al- the other, the other part of the if his son wasn't there, also how much is in his mind i- I didn't see it. I didn't see it by wa- again, there was no ca- cameras on this. No. So I didn't see this.
32:42
No, you were just going on his word. But how, how- He has a dimple... how much in his mind too is like, "There might be a camera on me, so I gotta call it," right? Mm-hmm.
32:48
Like, like, like, do you think he was angry afterward [laughs] when he figured out that there was no cameras or video footage of this at all? I, listen, good for him. Good for him. Good for him. Good for him.
32:57
Good for him. The, uh, the other one that's the, I, like, I hate to complain about winter, sorry, this was one of my better golf tournaments of the year. It was great to get back on track.
33:05
Uh, it was, I mean, top fives on Henley get home, on Keegan get home. Bet those. Had big, biggest bet of the tournament I had was a top 20 on To- Tommy Fleetwood. Uh, those all get home. It was a great tournament.
33:15
We had some, we had some bad ones go the other way. Sepp Straka, see I might need a break for a while. Um, Tommy Fleetwood, though, I had in my one, a one-and-done pool. Like, I have a pretty big one-and-done pool. Oh.
33:27
That- That's brutal... I had four outright winners in already, and I, with him winning yesterday, I would've been top 10 in, like, real money online. So that would hurt, that would hurt me [laughs]
33:39
, but whatever, he'll take, I'll take it. It's never all good, is it? It's never all good. [laughs] Uh, we'll come back. Baseball. Paul Spohn on the other side. And oh, how about that college baseball final too?
33:49
Coming back. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:51
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:10
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34:20
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34:32
Pick 10, you ready for this? East opening up for the Sixers 12 to 1 on FanDuel. Don't do it, Pick 10. I'm begging you, please don't do it. But I get it. It's certainly opening. I agree with that statement.
34:47
No, I mean, there's, I think- Whether you can walk through it is a different story. I think there's eight, nine teams in the East you can make an argument for. [laughs] Let's go, Wizards. [laughs] Okay, maybe not you.
34:56
Not one of the eight, nine. [laughs] May- maybe not you. Table Max, "Friendly PSA. Keep the cocktails to a minimum when line, minimum when line shopping.
35:04
A month ago, I found a good number on OKC to win it all this year, only to open my app this morning and find out that I got a crap number for them to win next year." Oh, oh. Oh my [laughs] God, that's, that's...
35:18
Now, who amongst us hasn't been there before? I did not think that's where that tweet was going. Oh, man.
35:24
Not, not, maybe not for a season long, but there have been other things where I, I've been like, "Oh, that was for tomorrow. Oh, sorry." [sighs] But that's a brutal one. Oh, I am sorry, man. C.
35:33
Spackler, not a fan of the NBA. When is the pickleball segment, he said. Sometimes if a line looks too good [laughs] to be true, it's probably too good to be true. Uh, let's see. Uh, oh, ScottyB726.
35:45
He was a Pa- he's a Pacers fan, and I think he's finally gotten through it. He's come to terms. He said, "When will s- when will we see the Rockets' inflated season win total? Suns did great.
35:54
What's KD's over-under for games played this coming year?" Wow. Uh, Cowboys_Cubs1 Primetime, "Yo." Hey, man.
36:02
When Halliburton went down, it was obvious what had happened, and there was only one thing on the minds of a Numbers Game listeners. "You're not gonna need those tennis balls in your pocket, are you?"
36:10
[laughs] Todd Wishnev's famous sympathetic words to me after he carried me off the court with Mike Balm. "Hey," uh, I had tennis balls in my pocket. He goes, "Hey, can I get those tennis balls?"
36:20
[laughs] Uh, Steve The Proxy, "Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the victory lap hour with Kelly Bidlin. Looks like the M Resort cut back their donation jar a bit too early. Cheers to Kelly." Absolutely.
36:30
Kelly Bidlin, everybody. [clapping] Let's go. Round of applause. Let's go. Good job, Thunder. Did you wa- Golf season's going well... did you wanna repeat what you said off-air about the golf tournament?
36:39
I owned that thing, Gil. I owned, I had that leaderboard circled. It was one of the most gorgeous golf tournaments of the year of my life. I didn't wanna be that guy on air, but fine, I'll be that guy Good for you.
36:50
By the way, it was so, again, the Haliburton injury put a damper on that on the NBA finals game seven yesterday. And, uh, obviously the golf tournament was nuts. Uh, you see the College World Series? Yeah.
37:00
LSU, congratulations if you had LSU winning it. They win it two games to none over Coastal Carolina, which had previously won 26 games in a row. They win it on a one to nothing gem on Saturday.
37:10
And then yesterday, that game was marred when their, when their manager, uh, Coastal Carolina's manager, or head coach as they call it, Kevin Schnall, tossed, along with assistant Matt Schilling, by Angel Campos, the umpire, in the first inning.
37:25
He's like, "Yeah, you gotta go. You're cursing and you're arguing balls and strikes." Like, what are we doing?
37:29
It's, you're robbing this guy of this thing for the rest of his life, that he's not gonna be present, 'cause he cursed a little? You sure make it about you, umpire. Let's talk some MLB.
37:39
Paul Sporer joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line from Austin, Texas. You can follow him on Twitter @Sporer.
37:44
And of course, uh, he's at FanGraphs, Sleeper and the Bus podcast, wearing always some interesting garb. What do you got on the, what's the sweatshirt, Paul? Good morning to you. Good morning.
37:56
This is for the Alamo Drafthouse, which, uh, is Texas-based but has spread across the country a bit.
38:02
It's basically just those fancier, uh, theaters where they serve food and- Good- It's j- it's just a better experience as far as I'm concerned. Do you watch- No peasants in the, uh, in the theater And alcohol?
38:14
Do they serve alcohol, Paul? Yes. Yeah. Food and al- I don't drink, but yeah, food and alcohol. It's just a, a, it's like an upscale-ish theater. All right. Mm-hmm.
38:21
I kind of don't go to a movie theater anymore that I can't get a drink at. Once I saw, once I fir- uh, uh, experienced that for the first time ever, ever, I was like, wow. Yeah. Th- this ruined every other movie theater.
38:31
An alcoholic beverage- Me and my-... while watching a motion picture? Yeah. Okay. Uh, Paul, do you watch the College World Series or are you strictly an MLB guy? Yeah. No, no, no. I, I, I like College World Series.
38:40
You know, I don't have a ton of bandwidth to, like, know all the great college players, um, that are gonna get drafted or anything. I u- kind of use the College World Series to catch up on some of the prospects.
38:49
My bandwidth doesn't quite go that deep. But I definitely enjoy it. You know, my Longhorns had a rough one this year. But, uh, LSU obviously a, a force.
38:58
And Coastal Carolina's really come on as a program these last several years to where, like, people might not know, you know, who the hell are Coastal Carolina, the Chanticleers, what's that?
39:07
They're, they're a real program in baseball. Real program. First of all, Paul, it's Chanticleers. [laughs] Let's get that straight. Chanticleers. Yes. My bad. As we, as we've all learned.
39:15
Yeah, I mean- I was gonna make a joke as, if the, was that why the coach got kicked out yesterday? [laughs] Going to the wrong game. We're the Chanticleers. [laughs] How dare you?
39:23
Uh, P- Paul, let me ask you, uh, sustain, which, which is the most sustainable or which is the least sustainable of this as we go to June most wins?
39:32
We have either six or seven games left in the month of June for these ball clubs. The Houston Astros, who won June last year, by the way. Mm-hmm.
39:41
14 and 6, the leader here down the stretch, followed by the Rays at 13 and 7. Then you have the Brewers, Diamondbacks, and Red Sox all at 12 and 7.
39:50
By the way, the Diamondbacks' schedule, again, is the easiest of the bunch, but they lost a tough one yesterday when they gacked the lead. Um- Yeah.
39:59
And so, and then you have, by the way, the Orioles and Giants and Dodgers also have 12 wins, but with more losses. Our Tigers, who, uh, uh, Kelly and I both have pre-flop, are in the 11 group.
40:08
They lost two of three to the Jays, effectively putting them behind the eight ball, uh, so to speak. Rays. But yes. For June. So you're saying there's a chance. [laughs] Yeah, not much of one.
40:17
Um, but let me ask you, Astros, Rays, Brewers, those top three teams, um, which is the mo- which is the realest moving forward past June?
40:29
Like, of those three clubs, 'cause, uh, the Astros, I guess we had some sense of because of the division they're in that they were gonna be successful in some way. Sure. The Rays and Brewers a little more nebulous.
40:38
Which of those three teams is the most sustainable beyond this month? I'm a little torn o- o- on this, this trio here, because they all kind of have their own thing that gives me a little bit of pause.
40:52
We don't know how things are gonna go with Tampa Bay with their, their big road trip, right? Like, th- their schedule is mapped out to avoid some of the rain and this of Florida.
41:01
My Tigers just played them in, uh, i- i- in, i- in their park there, and the rain, you know, the heavens will open up, but for, like, 20 minutes.
41:10
In fact, I think yesterday with the nine, ninth inning rain delay when it was an eight to one game, quite literally by the time they got the tarp finished as far as rolling it out, the sun broke and they had to go take it off immediately.
41:23
So, like, how's that gonna go when they start playing all these road games for Tampa Bay?
41:27
Um, some of their pitchers could actually get better, because they got some home run issues on that rotation outside of Drew Rasmussen. All the other four guys have, like, a one and a half homer nine or higher.
41:37
Well, they're gonna get out of Tampa Bay. So I wasn't sur- I'm not surprised that they've gone on a run here in June, and I think they could keep it up. I, I like this Rays team.
41:45
The one I'm really intrigued by, though, is Houston. Is this pitching real? Because they have, you know, they, they've got an ace at the top in Framber, uh, a- a- and Brown.
41:54
They have a one-two punch of, of righty lefty aces. But then it's a ragtag group. But guys that have shown some real talent. Colton Gordon, Brandon Walter, and Ryan Gusto.
42:05
If there's something there, I have a hard time quitting this Houston team. Remember last year we had so much consternation early on about are they finally collapsing? Is this the beginning of the end? And it wasn't.
42:16
You mentioned their June surge last year. They didn't start as slow this year, but they started slow again, and they turned it on. Houston is a team I have a hard time quitting.
42:23
And then with the Brewers, you know what I learned recently, Gil, that I had not been paying attention to? I've been treating their park, just from history, as a bit of a hitter's park. Yes. Because it generally can be.
42:34
Uh, I can't remember if it's roof closed or roof open, but one of them completely changes the park, and I'm gonna guess it's the roof closed, 'cause I think it's the roof closed more often than not.
42:43
This is a very big time pitcher's park, and if you're wondering why the Brewers are able to get so many quality talent, uh, quality innings out of medium talents with their pitching, I'm starting to think that the ballpark factor paired with the great defense is the combo that they're working with there.
42:57
So I have a hard time quitting them. So to answer the question after talking about all three, I think the Astros are my number one, but then the Rays and Brewers are, like, right there.
43:04
I have a hard time really separating this trio. I think all three should be in the playoff mix this year. I think all three should be buyers at the deadline as well. Okay. NL Rookie of the Year, speaking of the Brewers.
43:16
Jakub Mizerowski, uh- Mm-hmm... lost the bid for a perfect game in the seventh inning against the Twins Friday night. Before that, he had five innings of no-hit ball. He's already two to one in that market.
43:27
Um, and then you have the debut pitch unseen so far from Chase Burns, who's gonna be called up- Mm-hmm... by the Reds to take on the Yankees tomorrow night.
43:35
Chase Burns has gone from 100 to 1 to 20 to 1 without even throwing a pitch. Um, should we be betting him 20 to 1? Um, it, it, Burns more so than, than Mizerowski.
43:47
I think, I think it's done on Mizerowski already at that, at that price point. You know I'm not gonna jump on these favorites this early in things.
43:53
And generally I, I, I'm reluctant to get on the favorites, you know, a- at any point really, but especially this early with Jakub Mizerowski. He's awesome.
44:01
I don't wanna be the wet blanket guy here, but he is your prototypical no command or control guy. Like, when it's on, he's electric, he's awesome. He's a lanky son of a gun like myself, 6'7", 197.
44:14
[laughs] I'm not quite that tall, but you know, I, I, I see how it works with Mizerowski, but I see how it doesn't. So I'm not gonna jump on that at two to one. That's crazy. Burns at 20 to 1 already, I don't know.
44:25
Like, I'm, I'm better on that, but I'm still probably looking down the board. I still think somebody like Dylan Crews could come back and pop off. He's fallen down to 35 to 1. I'm probably still looking elsewhere.
44:37
I don't think that jumping on these June favorites in Rookie of the Year stuff makes a lot of sense. Paul, lanky as you are, we appreciate it. Thank you so much. Thanks. Take care, guys.
44:47
Wes Reynolds on the other side, next.
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