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Jun 24, 2024
A Numbers Game | June 24, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | June 24, 2024 | Hour 1
00:00
44:09
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Monday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:19
It is Wyatt Tomchek in for the vacationing Kelly Bidlin. How you doing, man? I'm great. Wait, Kelly's vacationing? I think he's home. He just told me to, to save his seat for like, uh, five minutes.
0:29
Uh, no, it's gonna be five days. You missed that, you missed that word. I m- m- missed that, but I'm glad to be with you. I haven't seen you in a while. I know, man, 'cause you've been away. I have.
0:36
I'm gonna blame it on you. What, are you at Circa most of the time?
0:39
Yes, when producer Britton Hess, uh, unfortunately left us to go move to LA, still writing for us for, uh, all his UFC content, uh, was filling in for prime time, so I get to sleep in a little bit.
0:50
You were just with your family and you, would you like to share what you do as part of that trip with your family? Yeah, uh, so most of my family on my dad's side, they live in, uh, Wisconsin. Uh, so I go up every year.
1:00
Now, my uncle owns two Ace Hardwares there, and since I was, like, 10 years old, I've always worked there, and it's just kind of like a little fun thing.
1:07
So you like helping people find the proper light bulbs and the- Yeah... proper paint shade and all that? Yeah. You know, well, don't ask me specific questions 'cause then I'm gonna be like, "I'm gonna get somebody more."
1:15
[laughs] Or I gotta give the life story of when they get a little agitated with me. I'm like, "Look, I'm, I'm from Vegas. I'm the owner's nephew. I- I'm just, you know, helping out." You do that thing.
1:23
Well, I'm glad you could be producer number whatever here, the little interim producer on the show. Uh, we appreciate it. By the way, you're destroyed by mosquitoes.
1:30
People should know Wyatt starts, uh, scratching himself. Uh, it's not anything else, it's just mosquitoes. It's happening to him. I got like 20 of them. Yeah. Uh, this is for a show in the middle of June.
1:40
Can we call it the middle of June? Whatever. Uh, towards the middle end of June, if you will, one of the sneakiest, best kind of days of the sports calendar. It is that good.
1:50
NHL Game 7 Stanley Cup Final tonight between the Edmonton Oilers, I'll do this again now, it's driving me crazy, Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers, and Edmonton trying to create all kinds of history.
2:02
All kinds of history, not only being the first Canadian team to win since 1993, but of course, coming back from a three to nothing deficit, which has only been done four other times in the history of the NHL playoffs, and only once before in the history of the Stanley Cup Finals.
2:16
That is what they're trying to do. Jake Hohn will be here later. We'll break it down. It is essentially a coin flip tonight.
2:22
Panthers were showing with a couple cents in their favorite minus 112, but in reality, this is a coin flip tonight for all the marbles. Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals, doesn't get better than that.
2:33
Actually, it kind of does, 'cause we have the College World Series deciding game tonight as well. Sucks that they're at the same time between Tennessee and Texas A&M.
2:43
Uh, Matt Grissom will be here to talk about that game tonight.
2:46
Um, and then it's the NBA draft on Wednesday, so we have Vegas Refund, Luke Swain on the show today for not one, but two segments, breaking down the whole NBA draft, give us his picks, the way he approaches the NBA draft, all of that later on the show with, uh, the great Luke Swain, who as you know, has been on this show many times, and, uh, primarily for the NFL draft, where he's done great historically.
3:09
But this time, obviously, for the NBA draft, which is only two nights away on Wednesday night. Mark Borchardt on baseball. We got an update, oh, we got a update. Major League Baseball wins in the month of June.
3:18
It's getting interesting for the third straight month. Oh. How much do you enjoy this market? 'Cause this is the really the first time I've seen you really discuss this. I love this market.
3:27
Because Wyatt, I was, I was a baseball, five years ago- Mm-hmm... 10 years ago, 15 years ago, if you asked me what my favorite sport to bet on was, it was baseball, and everything else was a distant second.
3:37
The game changed. Starting pitchers got taken out of games earlier. My ability to wrap my arms around bullpens, not as good. And so I sort of, day-to-day baseball betting sort of went by the wayside.
3:49
I think that was a proper way to transition out. But, um, I still think some of my best bets are in baseball, and this month-long sort of parameter is perfect.
4:02
And also with the Guardians in March, April, with the Guardians in May, and now the Astros in June, I essentially just bet the team brain dead every day, 'cause I've already sort of done the month-long handicap.
4:13
And while that doesn't sound like the most heady way to do things, it has proven to be awesome. So, um, we'll update that coming up on the show.
4:21
Wimbledon as well, 'cause, uh, Drew Dinsick, Zach Cohen, I believe, will join us as well on Thursday to do a Wimbledon podcast on the Beating the Book side on Thursday.
4:29
Uh, we'll talk men's side a little on the show today, um, 'cause I, I ran through the numbers on some of the players. I hadn't gotten to the women's side yet, but we'll run through the men's.
4:37
Uh, let's start, though, with [laughs] I mean, that's- is that enough? All of that going on, uh, here in the... And that's not even to mention soccer and all the s- your international soccer tournaments.
4:47
Paul Carr will join us tomorrow. Let's talk about Scottie Scheffler, because we gotta make time for him first, just from a historical standpoint.
4:54
Scottie Scheffler wins the Travelers yesterday in Connecticut, uh, in a playoff against Tom Kim. 18th hole interrupted by protesters. What were they protesting, by the way? I didn't even catch that.
5:04
It was, I think it was the stop the oil- Some kind of something... protest. I don't know. I was just enjoying Kelly live tweeting, uh- Oh, was he?...
5:11
on the plane, 'cause he was trying to see the result before it even took off. [laughs] He didn't know. He was very frustrated.
5:16
I- in any protest, when you're interrupting sporting events or anything that anyone enjoys, uh, you may wanna consider that, uh, your protest is probably gonna have the opposite effect.
5:25
Just wanna point that out to protesters. I do enjoy when people get tackled. There are some amazing- Oh, it's fantastic... tackles out there.
5:30
Greatest tackle in protest history, uh, Mike Curtis of the Baltimore Colts, before you and I can even remember just decking a fan. I might have to look this one up. Back in the day. Um, okay.
5:39
So Scottie Scheffler, uh, 18th hole, protesters, it gets delayed there, and so when they come back, uh, Scheffler misses a birdie putt, barely settles for par, and then Tom Kim, to force a playoff, hits a clutch birdie putt.
5:54
We're going to a playoff at the Travelers, and Scheffler, uh, sticks his approach shot on the green. Kim goes into the bunker.
6:03
His, uh, chip out was nowhere close, and Scheffler ends up, uh, parring out to win the Travelers. It is his sixth- Sixth PGA win in his last 10 starts. Sixth PGA win in his last 10 starts.
6:19
Two years ago, again, when Brady Cannon and I were on air, I said to him, I go, I think we need to be Benny Scottie Scheffler every tournament. Like, he's built different.
6:25
It took a while to manifest, but here we are with Scottie Scheffler. Sixth event of the year, not only in his last 10, but it's also, of course, the sixth of the year. And this is before July.
6:35
Justin Ray with all of his great tweets. This is the first time a golfer has won six before July, six tournaments before July since Arnold Palmer did it in 1962. It's only the third time that happened.
6:50
I believe Arnold Palmer was a time before that as well. The all-time record, by the way, is nine in a year, in a calendar year. Scheffler already at six. And so
7:02
just looking at history, Tiger Woods won seven times in 2007. Tiger won eight times in 1999 and 2006. And Tiger won nine times in 2000.
7:11
By the way, Arnold Palmer in 1962 and 1960, the only two other times that someone has won six by July. In fact, in 1962, he won six by the middle of May. But that's the record.
7:24
Vijay Singh also won nine times in 2004, by the way. But Tiger in 2009 is the record. But along those six wins, remember, it's just not rando tournaments, right? He won the Masters for the second time.
7:38
He won the TPC, the Players Championship. He's also won 27.7 million Scheffler this year, roughly 15 million more than the next best competitor, Xander Schauffele.
7:50
And his caddy, I believe, is just outside the top 10 in winning, in money earned or right inside the top 10. That's how unbelievable Scheffler's season has been.
8:00
And so you get to thinking, because I get to thinking a lot. It's a problem of mine when I start thinking. Six wins in 10 starts. Where does this rank?
8:10
Like, in terms of the stretches of great golf that we have seen in our lifetime, where does this rank? Now, Greg Norman had a stretch between June of 1995 and April of 1997 where he was number one in the world
8:27
for the entire stretch. At that point, he had been, like, number one in the world 300-plus times. But for that stretch of two years, he was number one the whole way through.
8:35
And in those two years, largely considered to be one of the top five stretches in the history of golf, two years we're talking, he won four times on the PGA Tour and then three times in the PGA Tour in Australia.
8:47
So four here domestically, three in his native Australia for seven in a two-year span. Well, that's not as good as what Scheffler is doing now. And that's considered maybe the third greatest stretch of all time.
8:59
So the only two stretches of golf that are clearly better than this, because I'm going to make the case that this stretch we're seeing from Scottie Scheffler is firmly the third best stretch of golf in the history, at least modern history of golf.
9:15
The two best, and we'll do it number two to number one, the two best are both Tiger Woods, who's just on a different level than anyone historically.
9:22
Eldrick Tiger Woods, his second best stretch, Tiger's, from June of 2005 to October of 2010, just to give this Scheffler stretch some context. Tiger spent 281 weeks as the top ranked golfer in the world.
9:36
He won 29 times in that five-year stretch, including five majors. It's just incredible. His best stretch, even better than that,
9:48
August of 1999 to November of 2004, a stretch of golf that will probably never be matched, although Scottie's off to a start, I guess.
9:57
31 wins on tour, including seven majors, 261 straight weeks as the top ranked golfer in the world. That's the greatest of all time.
10:09
To finish 99, just to shorten it because we have Scheffler six out of 10, to finish 99 alone in that five-year stretch, Woods won six of seven straight tournaments he entered.
10:19
And for a period of time from the end of 99 through the middle of 2001, he won five of six straight majors. That's so great.
10:27
So Scheffler, as amazing as this is, not quite the two greatest stretches of Tiger Woods' career.
10:33
And by the way, Joe Peta, who wrote the 2019 tour guide for the Masters, also uncovered a unbelievable stretch within one of those. I can't remember which one of those Tiger Woods stretches this was involved in.
10:44
Of, I want to say it was 82 or 86 rounds of golf in a row where Tiger was strokes gained plus, which is just, you know, head exploding. Tiger didn't even know he probably had that streak going.
11:00
So Scheffler, what he's doing is, if you take Tiger aside, it might be the greatest stretch of golf.
11:06
He is a short shot to win the Open Championship, the final major of the year, at four to one odds, plus 450 actually we're showing.
11:13
But keep in mind, he's only won the two majors of which are the Masters, not only, but only in quotes, just to sort of give it perspective.
11:19
Most people don't think a links course tailors to him, but nonetheless, installed, because you can't bet it unless it's installed, as a plus 450 short shot at the Open Championship, the final major of the year.
11:30
He will not be participating in the Rocket Mortgage Classic this week, though Tom Kim, who had just beat a playoff, is the short shot this week at Rocket Mortgage. Scottie Scheffler, man, tip of the cap. We'll come back.
11:42
Baseball with Mark Borchard, that's on the other side. Hockey, College World Series, NBA Draft is all on a numbers game at Feast in the Sports Betting Network.
11:54
By DraftKings live from Bar Canada at The D, downtown Las Vegas, with our NFL betting guide dropping this Thursday. Three days away. There's never been a better time to become a VSiN Pro subscriber.
12:04
Our all-new NFL betting guide is your secret weapon for the upcoming season, with in-depth profiles of every team, advanced stats, proven betting systems, betting trends.
12:11
You'll have all the tools you need to bet this season smart. Plus, our experts share their top bets on season win totals, futures, and props, giving you the insights you need to get ahead of the action.
12:19
To get the guide, you gotta be a VSiN Pro subscriber, though. For a limited time, get an annual subscription to VSiN Pro at an unbeatable price, normally $240 a year.
12:27
You can subscribe now for just one hundred ninety-nine, uh, that's $199, pardon me, with promo code ANG. Plus, we'll throw in an extra month for free.
12:34
That's 13 months of VSiN Pro access to everything we do, including our daily best bets, 24/7 video, premium analysis, exclusive betting splits data, and all our special edition betting guides to keep you betting smarter all year long.
12:45
Do not miss out on our all-new NFL betting guide and this incredible offer. Visit vsin.com/subscribe right now. Use promo code ANG to get 13 months of VSiN, uh, VSiN Pro for just $199. That is A-N-G, Gil. A-N-G.
12:59
I have an acronym. I'll use it next, uh, segment for that. Reserve your copy of our all-new NFL betting guide. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe.
13:06
And to celebrate our, uh, VSiN football betting guide, our NFL betting guide, Thursday, heavy network-wide National Football League betting talk. Yes. I'm excited for it. Very excite. It's that time of the year.
13:18
Oh, yeah. You know why I like the NFL s- It's not quite that time of the year I know. But you know why I like the NFL season? Is because then the temperature starts to cool down.
13:24
'Cause, boy, I tell you what, I hate these 115-degree days. We get... Oh, dude, it's already- Oh. It's already an oven outside. Ugh. It's 7:00. It's 7:15 AM. It's almost 90 degrees. Uh, we get tweets at Betting the Book.
13:37
Raquette Morton, "Middle of June? One week from today is July 1st." I do believe I corrected myself, right? Didn't I? Yeah, I think so. You kind of.
13:45
I, my favorite thing is when you correct yourself and they still wanna tweet you at you like this. Uh, let's see. Hoops by Hoots, "My favorite Scottie tweet I saw yesterday.
13:52
Rickie Fowler in 12-year career, six PGA wins, one Players, zero majors. Scottie in last 100 days, six PGA wins, one Players, one major."
14:02
That is such a great way to contextualize it, too, because think about how desperately over the course of his career people wanted to make Rickie Fowler into this massive thing, and how Scheffler's numbers just there just absolutely dwarf it.
14:18
Trip Tepper, "In 2001, Tiger held the title." This was the stretch we were talking about. "In 2001," he said, "another way to put it, Tiger held the title for all four majors and The Players, the unofficial fifth major.
14:28
Unlikely to be duplicated again." It really is unbelievable. Uh, third-best stretch of golf I would, uh, argue in our lifetime.
14:35
Mark Borchert joined us from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert to talk some baseball with us @BaseWinner, basewinner.com, and of course he, uh, does the, uh, Bet US podcast.
14:45
Comes to us courtesy of the Progressive guest line. And when I say undisclosed location, it's undisclosed for me. Where are you? What- I'm laid back. Got my mind on my money and my money on my mind.
14:54
[laughs] Cracked, yo, it looks like I'm in the Mi- it's like I'm in the Maricopa County Jail, but I'm, I'm really not. Um, I,
15:01
I, I'm, I'm going through a remodel of my home, which I think somebody else on this show is doing- Hmm... as well. So, like, I, I've gotta kinda scramble to, to go to different places.
15:10
But that, that remodel, that's, that's sure fun, isn't it? A remodel is fun. The smell of paint is fun.
15:17
Um, and there is this thing that people don't tell you, that you can play, you know, two hours of tennis out in 100-degree weather here in Vegas, and you will not be as tired or as sore, uh, your body won't be as sore as you will be moving boxes around your place or shredding paper.
15:36
It is the weirdest thing in the world, and I haven't really solved that. It's because of the weight. You're not used to twisting your body in certain ways. We have no idea.
15:45
I just, I, I never, never thought there'd be so many, uh, different variations of the color gray, though. I mean, it's just amazing. [laughs] It's like there are a lot of variations of gray, that's for sure.
15:56
Um, all right. Not at the Maricopa County Jail. We've established that. Good, 'cause I wouldn't have, would've had to ask you what you're in for. Let's start with your picks first. We usually wait till the end.
16:05
What do you got today? Well, I'm gonna go, and I, I, I've been kind of, uh, bearish all year on Cleveland, but I really like this Bybee. He's, he's seventh in about a hundred and I think there's 147 guys today.
16:17
I'm gonna go first five Cleveland. He's going against not Maury Povich, but Cade Povich, and I've got the first five price about minus 138.
16:25
I still think you can get in the market about a pick 'em, so gonna go with that first five.
16:29
And then, you know, Gil, when we were younger, uh, somebody told us, uh, on the radio, and you, you're probably familiar with this since you were a DJ, that you don't fool around with the funky cold Medina.
16:39
But, uh, today I'm going to fool- [laughs] Today I'm gonna fool around with Medina versus Canning. They're both horrible pitchers. I think Medina's, uh, base winner ERA is, like, a 6.13, and the price is set at 8.5.
16:55
I understand that the, uh, both teams' offenses aren't very good, but this is... You know, they always talk about good pitching versus good hitting, what happens.
17:03
Well, this is what happens when, what happens when bad hitting goes up against bad pitching. What I'm gonna do here is play the over eight and a half. I think that's priced affordably.
17:10
I think it's about minus, minus 115 right now. And then this is, this is an interesting one, Gil. Uh, I, I, you know, I have the White Sox, and the White Sox for me are the...
17:21
I really want them to have the worst record, uh, in baseball, 'cause I have them at six to one. But today I'm gonna play against the best team in baseball, arguably. I'm gonna play the White Sox on the first five.
17:33
I really like this Crochet, and, and he's actually has a base winner ERA of 2.21. It's pretty amazing that on such a crappy team you can have such a good pitcher.
17:43
And he's going up against Paxton, it was kind of conversely, on such a good team, you have such a crappy pitcher.
17:49
And Paxton's, uh, base winner ERA, now this is, uh, this is strikeout percentage, walk percentage, ground ball percentage, and I think that there's no argument there that this is something the pitcher can control.
17:59
Uh, and so anyway, Paxton's, uh, base winner ERA 5.89. I think we have a huge, uh, advantage pitching with the White Sox, and I understand their, their, uh, their offense isn't good.
18:09
I've got them 29th in baseball, uh, versus the fourth best, uh, offense, uh, in this respective split with the Dodgers. Uh, but all, all that being said, I think that, uh, a pick and price for the White Sox is a steal.
18:21
I think it should be about -200, and so that's controversial, but based on a 2.21 ERA versus a s- uh, 5.89, uh, it makes sense from a math standpoint, Gil.
18:30
Sco-, I mean, we, the All-Star break is coming up in a c- in a few weeks here. Um, always a nice time.
18:36
By the way, uh, Q2 derivatives pod, me and you next week, if you can, if you can hack it, 'cause we're about to round the bend. That's... Yeah, let's do it. I, I'll get out of, I'll be out of jail by then, I think.
18:46
I hope so. I hope so. I, what was a, uh, misdemeanor. Um, and so here's the thing. I just wanna get a, a sort of heat check on some of these teams in each, each league to deter- to sort of get your thoughts on what is...
19:00
Y- we kind of have a good sense. I mean, there's not a lot of good races. Obviously, the AL East, uh, one and a half games b- uh, separate the Yankees and the Orioles, but you have to...
19:10
I mean, the only other one that's, that is remotely close, I guess the closest of the bunch, is the Brewers are only five games up on the Cardinals. So you don't really have a, a lot of connectivity at the top.
19:23
But in terms of the wild card, let's start with the American League. The National League is just a scrum.
19:27
But the American League right now, if the playoffs were to begin today, and this just in, they're not, but if they were, Baltimore, Minnesota, and Boston inhabit the one, two, and three wild card positions.
19:36
Kansas City is a half game out. Everybody else, including Tampa Bay and Houston, four games out or more. Ultimately, what do your numbers say will be a wild card team?
19:49
Because we can not only bet m- miss and make playoffs, but there's also some books that have exact seeding. So I'm curious what your numbers say in the AL. Well, I'm really bearish on the Royals.
20:00
In fact, I put that out, I think I got plus 160-ish, uh, o- on Friday, and I only have them with a 10% chance to make the playoffs based on my Monte Carlo simulation skill. And, and so, uh, well, so who's gonna make it?
20:16
Who's got the, who's got the opportunity to get in there? I like Houston, Gil. I know you're- Yeah... you're in, you're in Houston.
20:24
I've got them with a 61% chance of making the playoffs, and you can get them at DraftKings, I'm just looking now, plus 120. I think that's a pretty good opportunity in the American League, Gil. I do, too.
20:35
Um, not as sexy a number as you could have gotten.
20:37
It's certainly not as sexy a number before the month of June in terms of most wins, but yes, the Astros still four out of the wild card, and obviously they would have their sights set on a division as well.
20:46
National League right now, the three wild cards would be Atlanta, St. Louis, and San Diego. But when I say St. L- Atlanta's got a little bit of a cushion, but St. Louis and San Diego in the two and three holes.
20:59
Um, you have to go seven teams down from San Diego, and everybody's within three games. Washington, Arizona, the Mets, the Pirates, the Cubs, the Reds, and the Giants. Who's in ultimately and who's out, according to you?
21:17
Well, there's some really good opportunity for me, based on my numbers in the futures market, for the Padres to make the playoffs. Yes, I've got them a 70% chance, and you can still get them, I think, Gil.
21:29
I mean, this looks like a typo, but you can get them at plus money, plus 140- Oh... for the Padres to get in there. And then there's the other team, I put this team out too on Friday, uh, the Mets.
21:38
And, uh, the Mets, 40% chance to get in. They're priced, uh, right now at plus 250, and, and that's based on the lineup they have right now. I think they'll probably get aggressive. I mean, they're right there, Gil.
21:49
So those are two really good plays, in my opinion, uh, in the National League, Gil. And you, you always have to assess who's gonna be a buyer, who's gonna be a seller here at the, uh, trade deadline coming up as well.
21:58
And then last thing, only 30 seconds, of all the teams we mentioned, which is the one, either American League or National League, that if they get in the postseason, the way that their starting pitching is set up, they could actually be a thing in advance?
22:11
Well, who have we mentioned? We've, we've mentioned Houston. Uh, I did mention, uh, Balt- Baltimore winning the, uh, winning that division is a steal, but, uh- Really? Okay... I, I don't know. I don't, I don't...
22:23
I think it's gonna be tough. I think it's gonna be tough for all those teams, because the other teams are better. They have better pitching, Gil. Okay, but I heard Baltimore's gonna win the AL East. You said that?
22:31
I love that. I love that. I think that's a steal, Gil. Okay. Appreciate it. We'll come back. Uh, Wimbledon talk, and of course, the Stanley Cup Finals, game seven on the other side. Thank you, Mark.
22:39
It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. Betting tools and betting guides. How often do you check odds by state, Wyatt? Are you like, "I want to see what Tennessee's numbers are today"?
22:48
It won't, won't allow me on this computer. Oh. Well, try another computer. Uh, uh, you gotta install something special. Uh, vsin.com, check it on the front page. NBA draft with JVT. The NBA draft is Wednesday night.
22:59
Zachary Cohen, uh, Zach Cohen also has NBA draft thoughts. Steve Mackinnon with college football recruiting rankings. Matt Humans on college basketball futures.
23:07
And of course, a whole bunch of Stanley Cup game seven and College World Series, the decider tonight, game three of the College World Series finals, all at vsin.com.
23:16
And on this show, in the next 90 minutes, uh, we got nothing but College World Series, NHL, NBA draft. We're doing all that. Oh, by the way, I have a couple, uh, man, I forgot to give these out, a couple tennis plays.
23:29
Did this start already? Let me see. All right, we, we have three today. Magda Linette was a winner overnight. Uh, okay, we do, we, I'm glad. Got there in time.
23:39
So the other, the last two tennis picks of the day, for those who are interested in, uh, having some action here this morning, I am on Uh, Juncheng Shang.
23:46
I believe you say that Shang Juncheng, pardon me, Shang Juncheng on, uh, this is in Eastbourne. This is a, uh, tune-up tournament to Wimbledon.
23:55
Uh, Shang Juncheng, that's S-H-A-N-G, as we see it as the last name, which is actually the first, and J-U-N-C-H-E-N-G, or J-U-N-S-H-E-N-G, over, maybe you'll know this better by the, the opponent, over Tomás Martín Etcheverry.
24:13
Um, I have Shang, and the number I got, again, all of our plays, speaking of the website, every host, every guest, every sport, all of our plays at vsyn.com/picks.
24:25
Uh, I got Shang last night at minus 122, and as I look right now, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, I wanna see that it's, uh, not out of whack here for you. Maybe you'll have better, maybe you'll have worse.
24:36
We're doing this in real time, and, uh, right now you can get him at, oh no, it's out. It's minus 154. I did that whole buildup, and now it's minus 154. Okay, there is th- so I wouldn't play it at minus 154.
24:47
So again, a bunch of CLV. We'll see where that goes. The other one I do have, I'm sure that you will be able to play this one. Uh, I have, um, and again, this is at vsyn.com/picks.
24:58
I wanna get, this is also in Eastbourne on the, on the ladies' side. I have Barbora Krejčíková. Oh, Barbora Krejčíková. This is absolutely playable.
25:05
Uh, she is at plus 111 right now, and, uh, I got her at plus 114, so it really hasn't moved that much. So Krejčíková on the ladies' side over, uh, cutie pie, Leylah Fernandez, the Canadian. So we're taking Krejčíková.
25:17
Hopefully, her lifetime grass numbers manifest in that one as a slight dog. Those are the two remaining tennis plays of the day for those who are interested. Speaking of tennis, you got Wimbledon fever, Wyatt? Be honest.
25:29
Excited for you. I'm excited for you. Excited for me. [laughs] Hey, can I, can I ask a quick question? Sure, but Dustin was here on Friday- Uh-huh... and he, he was like, "Dustin, are you into tennis?"
25:37
He goes, "No, I only like real sports, Gil." [laughs] That's what he said to me. Wow. Brutal. Oh, wow. Brutality. I'm guessing Dustin is not, uh, well, is not gonna be invited back on the show for a little bit.
25:45
Want it done, Sweetilson. [laughs] No, I lo- I loved hanging out with Dustin. But I was gonna ask, you know, out of the four majors, where does, is Wimbledon, like, the prestigious tournament? Yes.
25:54
Kinda like the Masters for golf? I think so. I think that if, e-even to this day, that if someone asked, "What's the most," to use your word, I, I think you have to use that word, though, right? Hmm. Prestigious.
26:05
It's still Wimbledon because it's
26:08
the, uh, the all whites on the grass, breakfast at Wimbledon, the fortnight, all the tradition that goes with, you know, the r- r- absolute r- you know, royalty sitting in the box in their royal regalia.
26:21
[laughs] However you wanna say that. Um, yeah, so I think it's the most prestigious. Is it the most, you know, valued in terms of, like, does it have more, you know, do...
26:32
Like, I think the Masters in, in, in addition to being the most, more pres- most prestigious, I think the Masters to a lot of people still is, is a leg up on the others in terms of which is the most meaningful of all of them.
26:46
Maybe, maybe not. Maybe some people think it's the US Open. Maybe some people overseas think it's the Open Championship. Um, I do, I don't think Wimbledon holds it in that way, if I'm making sense.
26:55
Prestigious, yes, but, like, I don't know, you go to the US Open, that raucous crowd, winning that is pretty spectacular. The French is its own thing on clay, so it's a little different in tennis.
27:05
Which, which, which one would be kinda your bucket list to go to? Oh, yeah, I, I hit it, but I didn't have, like, good enough seats. I went to the US Open
27:13
about nine, 10, 11 years ago, I can't remember exactly what year it was, at night. Night matches- Hmm... at the US Open because you're allowed to emote, you're allowed to go crazy.
27:24
Um, and I saw a Sloane Stephens, Ana Ivanovic match, which I think Ivanovic won, but I also attended, just randomly, a Mardy Fish, Gilles Simon match, and you're like, "Who cares if you saw a Mardy Fish, Gilles Simon?"
27:40
But there's a documentary on Netflix, one of these untold, I don't know what it's called. I think it's Untold or an, a series of strange sports documentaries.
27:49
Mardy Fish had a mental breakdown during that match, and I had no idea, and there's a whole documentary about the one match, one of two, that I attended in my whole life at US Open.
27:58
But I would love to go with actual, like, great seats on top of it. Indian Wells is the, is the best experience I've had in terms of, like, having great seats for something, which is, uh, tennis is de facto fifth major.
28:09
But yeah, US Open bucket list. But I wanna go to all of them, man. I wanna go to Wimbledon. I wanna go to the French. We should all be zilling it. Matt Brown just went to the French. Did he? Yeah, man.
28:17
Matt Brown is styling and profiling at the French. Oh, man. I need to, I need to become friends with him. He was maxing and relaxing. You name it, he was doing it. Um, is that good '90s, uh, cliches that I'm using?
28:27
I like it. All right. Uh, Wimbledon, I didn't get a chance to, to delve into the numbers on the women's side, but I did on the men's side a little bit last night, and just know that this is about grass.
28:36
There's hard courts. There's a gradation of hard courts. There's clay. There's a gradation of clay in terms of faster or slower. Grasping the, grass is the fastest of all of them.
28:45
And, but grass season, the, the sort of trouble with handicapping grass season is there's the least amount of data. The entire grass season lasts five weeks.
28:55
There's literally three tune-up tournaments on the men's and women's side, and then it's Wimbledon, and then we're done.
29:00
And this year we're done, we're, you know, some are headed to the Olympics to play on clay, uh, like Iga is on the ladies' side, and then some are just gonna go straight into hard courts, hard courts for the rest of the season, rest of the calendar year.
29:11
So grass, because it's only five weeks every year, the data isn't as meaningful as it is for hard courts, which is the most robust, or clay. So you try to make the most of it, and on the men's side,
29:24
the first thing you have to know is Novak Djokovic has not made an official announcement.
29:30
Remember, he, uh, tore the meniscus in his knee in the French Open, and he had to withdraw, you remember, after, I believe it was advance to the semifinals.
29:37
He has still not fully decided if he's playing at Wimbledon or not, so that's the very first thing you know. So he's still listed in the odds. He's the third shot behind Carlitos.
29:46
Carlos Alcaraz is plus 150, Jannik Sinner is plus 175. They are the future of men's tennis. Those two should be winning majors left and right. Uh, for the, for the, you know, near future and far future.
29:58
But Novak, uh, looking for that, uh, looking for that record, you know, another... Any, any major he wins is another record breaker. He's at plus 350, so he's, he's been training.
30:09
He looks actually much better on his knee than you would otherwise think he would have this close to his injury. So we don't know if he's playing or not. That's the first thing.
30:16
Second thing is, when you go into this stuff, you usually care about the draw.
30:22
At Wimbledon, I would argue the draw means sort of the least, 'cause again, we don't have as much to go on, so we're not really sure, well, if this player plays this player.
30:32
We have a much better sense of that on hard courts and draw, uh, draws in not only the majors, but all tournaments.
30:37
As far as though looking at the numbers we do have and the performances we have seen here in the recent weeks on grass, well, let me just go through a few of those.
30:48
Um, on the men's side, what we have seen so far leading up to, leading up to Wimbledon, uh, is some names popping up, in some cases a couple times.
30:59
So Stuttgart, which was a 250, there are 250s, there's 500s, and there's 1000s, and then there's the majors. 250s is the, the lowest. There's 125s, but we don't worry about that.
31:07
250 in Stuttgart, Jack Draper beat Matteo Berrettini in the finals. Musetti and Nakashima got to the semis. Uh, in the Netherlands, also a 250, de Minaur beat Korda. Humbert and Griekspoor got to the semis.
31:20
And then the two 500s in London, Tommy Paul just beat Musetti. Musetti's come up twice now. Korda and Thompson got to the semis. Korda has come up twice now. And then in Halle, uh, just on a 500, Sinner beat Orcas.
31:32
Uh, Zhang Zhizhen and, and Sasha Zverev got to the semifinals. Now, that may sound like a word salad, but what it means is, okay, um, Draper, Berrettini, Musetti, Korda, what are their numbers?
31:46
When you look at the outrights, do you think any of them can win at all? I would argue no. But for individ- individual matches, I think those are names to think about.
31:55
Uh, as far as looking at the data and say, okay, whose data is shockingly great on grass, not only this year, but also in past years? The answer to that question would be Grigor Dimitrov.
32:08
Grigor Dimitrov actually has better raw grass numbers than anyone on tour, and what are we seeing him at to win this tournament? I think 40 to one-ish, in that range. Might you take a flyer on him?
32:20
It would be an interesting one to have, and then you could earn on it if he advances deep, deep into the tournament. So that's, if you're looking for a clever play, I think it's Dimitrov.
32:30
I think Matteo Berrettini, who has had great success here in the past and has, and is a bit of a serve bot, at 20 to 1 is an interesting one to have. And then Milos Raonic, if you wanted some crazy long shot at 100 to 1.
32:41
He is the serve bot of all serve bots. If he somehow got on this two-week serve streak that no one could return, um, again, same thing with him and Berrettini. If they got far enough, you could earn on it.
32:54
So do I think any of those three, Dimitrov, Berrettini, or Raonic end up winning the tournament? I do not. But they might be interesting futures to have in your pocket
33:05
in the hopes that one of them gets very deep into it. Ultimately, though, I think it's Carlitos, Jannik, or Novak Djokovic, and I'd be lying to you if I thought anybody else.
33:13
Humbert or Kotz, if you said that, I wouldn't go nuts on you either, uh, as a bit of a serve bot himself. We'll come back. Stanley Cup game seven tonight. Jake Hahn next. NFL training camp starting in less than a month.
33:30
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33:45
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34:20
Sorry, Gil, I was just focusing about the two greatest thing, two greatest words in sports, game seven. Game seven. Before we get to game seven, Jake Hahn, by the way, joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
34:31
Uh, you can follow him on Twitter at jhahn4. That's H-A-H-N and the number four. He is, uh, the co-host of The Point and the Fantasy Hockey Show on SiriusXM NHL. Jake, how you doing?
34:41
And before we talk game seven, you had Tom Kim pre-flop at the Travelers.
34:47
Yeah, like, like you guys said, no better words than game seven, and we s- we'll certainly get into that, and I think, uh, the whole sports world, especially the hockey world, excited for the game tonight.
34:56
But, uh, I am mourning the loss of my Tom Kim outright ticket, Gil. [laughs] It was, it was tough.
35:00
And, uh, to, to be the leader after the first round, the second round, the third round, uh, but not the round that ultimately matters in the outright market, that's, that's as frustrating as it gets when it comes down to it.
35:11
But hey, when you lose to the best golfer in the world, uh, you just gotta tip your cap and, and say, "Uh, I, I made a, a decent bet. It just didn't end up, uh, cashing." Yeah, man.
35:19
So we'll go back to the drawing board for the, uh, the Rocket Mortgage this week. Yeah, that fourth and final round can be pretty pesky sometimes. I understand. All right, game seven.
35:26
We have, uh, behind Wyatt, we have a bunch of screens, and a lot of them are tuned into the NHL network here at the D. And the graphic said, "Most anticipated game of this century."
35:36
Like, this is what we're talking about here. Uh, I get it, we're only, uh, less than a quarter of the way through the century, but you get the idea.
35:42
Um, so let's go through all the things first, and then we'll get your opinion on a whole bunch of stuff.
35:46
Edmonton, uh, trying to become, as we said, not only the fifth team to come back from a three to nothing deficit in a best of seven in the history of the NHL playoffs...
35:56
uh, of an NHL playoff series, but also trying to be the second team to do so in a Stanley Cup Final.
36:02
They have already become only the third team in history to force a game seven in the Stanley Cup Finals after trailing three to nothing.
36:11
The '42 Maple Leafs, which actually pulled off the ultimate comeback in the finals, and the '45 Red Wings that didn't, being the others.
36:19
They're also trying to be the first Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup since 1993, when the Canadiens did it.
36:25
Um, and this is just the 18th time in the history of the NHL where a game seven will determine the Stanley Cup Finals. Wait, Jake, there's more.
36:35
Um, but before we get to, to the more of that, I just wanna get your thoughts here on a couple things. One, what do you think changed? Let's stop there.
36:46
Besides the obvious one, which is Sergei Bobrovsky, who has allowed 14 of 64 goals for a save percentage of 748, oh my God, in the last, uh, 10 periods. Beyond that little detail, what's fundamentally changed?
37:02
H- Has Florida, is Florida gassed? Well, I do think you hit on the obvious one, right? Sergei Bobrovsky, maybe a flip in the goaltending between the two goaltenders.
37:11
You gotta give some credit to Stuart Skinner on the other end as well, who a lot of people doubted going into the series, myself included, saying, you know, Florida would have the edge.
37:18
There's a lot of areas where both teams are equal, but I feel like the one that felt obvious was the edge between the pipes, because Bobrovsky had the experience. He, he was in a Cup Final last year.
37:28
Stuart Skinner, unfamiliar territory, and early in the series, that, that experience was showing for Bobrovsky, and I think that that has now flipped the other direction, and Stuart Skinner's actually making the big saves.
37:38
Uh, but o- other than that, I, I think Edmonton just sticking with what they were doing.
37:41
I know they were down three-nothing in this series, guys, but there was elements of their game that they w- they were still playing well, and obviously Bobrovsky was great and kinda stifling them a little bit, but they stuck with it, and I, I really do think it come, came down to that game five, right?
37:54
They blow out Florida, uh, uh, in Edmonton in game four to kind of extend the series, and that game five, to me, was a, a total hinge game.
38:02
It was either Florida wraps it up in five, or Edmonton wins, carries it back to Edmonton, and I felt like we were always gonna go seven.
38:08
So, um, I, I think at the end of the day, Edmonton's played a, a great series, uh, even from the get-go, even when they lost a couple of those early games.
38:16
And, and just sticking with what they were doing, trusting in what they've done all season long i- is the reason why they've been able to, to push this to a game seven.
38:22
But just to be clear, nobody, including yourself, nobody saw it after game three, right? Like, there was nobody saying this could happen. I don't think so. I- Yeah...
38:30
I'm sure there's some pickets out there for some am- ambitious bettors- [laughs]... and good luck to those bettors tonight- Yep... if you got a decent number. I certainly wasn't one of those people, uh, Gil.
38:38
I, I felt like Florida was gonna win it, uh, on home ice in, in five. And I do think the pressure of playing on home ice can get to teams sometimes, and I think that's something to look out for tonight.
38:46
If we think there was a lot of pressure on Florida in game five- Ooh... knowing, "Okay, we need to wrap this up.
38:51
We don't wanna go back to Edmonton," imagine the pressure on that Panthers team tonight in a game seven, having three chances already to win a Stanley Cup, with the Cup in the building, now having to do it on home ice.
39:01
It almost feels like that's even more difficult than, than doing it on the road. Yeah, by the way, I misspoke earlier. I think Bobrovsky, uh, the last 64 shots on goal, he's allowed 14 for 748.
39:11
What I meant over the last 10 periods was the Oilers have outscored the Panthers 20 to five. 20 goals in the last, obviously some were empty netters, but 20 to five over the last 10 periods. Um,
39:22
you like Edmonton tonight? Is that what I'm hearing? I, I do, Gil, and I've, I've been pro, uh, Florida this entire series. And, and look, I, I hope this is a close game. I hope we get a classic.
39:32
Overtime would be amazing, just from a, a pure drama perspective. Imagine the, the pressure- O-... on both teams. Um- Only been two overtimes in game seven Stanley Cup Finals history. Yeah. 1954, 1950, both by Detroit.
39:44
Both won by Detroit. And, and we haven't even had many game sevens at all lately, uh, in recent memory in the Stanley Cup Final, right? Actually, Boston's been involved, uh, in the most recent two.
39:53
They, they, uh, faced Vancouver in game seven over 10 years ago, won that, and then they lost to the Blues in game seven recently.
40:00
We've actually had a lot of boring Cup Finals, to be completely honest, uh, lately, where one team is just either clearly better than the other team, like we saw with Tampa Bay and Montreal a few years ago, or, you know, you have a team that just gets gassed out or injured, like we saw what happened to the Panthers last year against the Vegas Golden Knights.
40:17
So, it's nice that we have a classic. I, you know, I'm rooting for a close game here, guys, but it, it's hard not to side with Edmonton, the way that they're playing right now. I backed Edmonton on Friday night.
40:25
Obviously, now they go out on the road. Uh, but you can say that, you know, that might actually be a little bit easier for a team to play on the road and maybe not have quite as much pressure.
40:33
Now, now, I talk about pressure on Florida, and there's obviously tons when you ha- you're this close to blowing a, a three-nothing lead, but there is now pressure on Edmonton as well.
40:42
You don't come all this way back from three-oh down and not have any pressure on you with the Cup in the building. So, uh, pressure on both sides tonight, and I, I'm looking forward to, to seeing who steps up.
40:51
Where would this, why I'd ask this off-air, so I wanna ask it on-air. Where, where would this rank in all-time gags for you? Not only hockey, but sports. Well, uh, it's, it's tough, guys.
41:01
Like, I, I know, um, and maybe you could speak to some of the other sports a little bit better. I- the, the Falcons-Patriots Super Bowl comes to mind- For sure... as one where I'm just like, oh man.
41:10
I think we all kinda remember, uh, that one. And, you know, you can look at, uh, a lot of different comebacks. You look at the Red Sox coming back against the Yankees in series like that that kinda jump out.
41:19
But I think in a, in a Cup Final, uh, like this, if, I mean, if Florida loses with a three-nothing lead- Ooh... this might go down as the all-time gag, at least in NHL history.
41:28
There, I'm sure if we dig deep enough, we can find something in pro sports. And, uh, uh, Gil, I, you know, we're both golf guys here, uh, as well.
41:35
I'm sure there's been, uh, plenty of gags, uh, in golf history as well down the stretch. But in terms of a, of a team sport, this one might, uh, might be number one.
41:43
Yeah, Greg Norman, six-shot lead at the Masters, I think it was 1990. Yeah. But I, uh, the Red Sox-Yankees 2004 AL Championship Series is what leaps to mind for me. Uh, just a few more things here.
41:52
I was wondering, okay, scoring first means so much. What's the history of game sevens?
41:57
Uh, the team that scores first has won 12 of the previous 17 g- Situations where it's a team coming back from a three to nothing deficit. The team that scores first has won 12 of 17.
42:11
Um, that falls in line kinda with how this series has gone, right? Because the team that has opened has scored, uh, the team that scored first has won five of six games in this series.
42:19
Only Florida's win in game two bucking that. Uh, home team, 12 and five in these game sevens where a team has come back from a three to nothing deficit. But, uh, the last three times it's happened, the road team has won.
42:31
So you gotta, you know, for whatever that's worth. Uh, the team that won game six to extend the series has only gone eight and nine in game seven, so Edmonton is not a proverbial lock by that trend.
42:41
We're not really a trend show, but, uh, so keep all those numbers in mind. The scoring first thing is interesting. 12 out of 17. Last thing here,
42:48
Connor McGregor, 18 to one to win the Conn Smythe when the Oilers were down three to nothing, plus 650 when they were down three to one. Now he's minus 2,500 or, like, minus 3,000.
43:00
What would hap- have to happen, win or lose? Give, give me a scenario where he does not win this.
43:09
That's a, it's a great question, and it's hard to find that scenario because I do think no matter what happens tonight, Connor McDavid is getting that, that Conn Smythe Trophy.
43:16
It'll be a little awkward if they lose, uh, because we just haven't seen this in a very long time, since Jay Bouwmeester in, uh, 2003.
43:24
So we're going way back to find the last time a, a losing player won a Conn Smythe Trophy. But I think he has it locked up, guys.
43:29
I've talked to a few people that, that do have votes on this award as well, and it does feel like everybody's in agreement that it should go to Connor McDavid for the playoffs that he's had.
43:37
If I'm building a case, I'd say a Bobrovsky, you know, mar- 40 save shutout, something like that, to win the cup, or maybe a Barkov hat trick.
43:45
Some- something of, of that would have to happen, and I even think with that it might not be enough to, uh, to usurp Connor McDavid. Connor McDavid, two own goals. That's the o- [laughs] that's the only way. Yeah.
43:55
Just put it in his own net by accident. There we go. Uh, try to be the sixth player of all time to win the Conn Smythe on a losing team. But win or lose, it looks like it's his. Jake Enjoy, this is gonna be awesome.
44:04
Thank you. Yeah. Enjoy the game tonight, guys. Take care. [upbeat music]
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