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Jun 25, 2024
A Numbers Game | June 25, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | June 25, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:17
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube, TV, however you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:18
It is Wyatt Tomchek, day number two in for the vacationing Kelly Bitlan. How you doing, man? Good, good. I was able to still wake up pretty nice today.
0:27
It wasn't a struggle, but, uh, wake- talk to me on Thursday or Friday. Oh, four little days of this, and it'll, might, might be the end for you on the, uh, waking up early. I'm not a mor- I'm not a morning person.
0:36
[laughs] I've never been. By the way, uh, we've tracked Kelly like we track Santa Claus. Uh, Kelly is back- [laughs]... from Austin. Uh, it went okay. He is in Vegas now. He is, uh, headed to Los Angeles.
0:45
So again, the, the Kelly Bitlan lojack in full effect. He's all over the place. Oh, yeah, those, uh- Have a good time, though... frequent flyer miles are being used very well.
0:53
Uh, 7:00 AM, weather check here, Pacific Time, in, uh, in Las Vegas. Temperature, 95 degrees Fahrenheit. Is that healthy at 7:00 AM?
1:01
Oh, so, so I saw a tweet yesterday, and I was thinking about you, and also I was crying about it.
1:05
So the National Weather Service in Las Vegas said it was the first 23 days, uh, we were on par to have the hottest June ever. Compared to last year, 11 degrees hotter. I, I feel every degree of it.
1:17
Like, I walk out, I'm like, "I have to blast the AC in my car full in the morning." 95 degrees. Weather in San Francisco right now, 58 degrees, just as a contrast. Hottest and, and, uh, and coldest in the country.
1:27
We have a show today, a good one. Drew Didsick joins us momentarily to talk NBA draft with us as our continuing coverage of the NBA draft, uh, which, of course, commences tomorrow night, is happening.
1:38
Drew's thoughts on that and beyond, tennis, Olympics, who knows what else he's dealing with. Uh, John Lagasse, Instant Offense, and some baseball. Paul Spohrer will be here to talk baseball.
1:46
Paul Carr's got a bunch of Euro thoughts as well. Euros 2024, a whole bunch of soccer plays today. So we'll get into all of that. But first, Wyatt, Stanley Cup Final Game 7. Congratulations to the Florida Panthers.
2:02
Congratulations to everybody who had Florida Panthers tickets. They get her done as a tick of a favorite last night, minus 112.
2:10
They win it two to one, beating the Edmonton Oilers, so Canada still on the drought since 1993.
2:17
And the Oilers do not make history for the fifth time in NHL history, or what would've been the fifth time in NHL history, coming back from a three to nothing deficit to win a best of seven series.
2:27
By the way, the, uh, the complete stats on that from sport to sport now in terms of teams down three to nothing trying to win a best of seven series, uh, famously in the NBA, 0 and 157 in attempting to do that, 1 in 39 in Major League Baseball, only the Red Sox doing it against the Yankees in the 2004 American League Championship Series, the only one to accomplish that feat.
2:50
And it remains now stuck on four and 207 now, four and 207 in the history of the NHL. Um, but the Panthers did it. It was a frenetic first period that was pretty awesome, uh, in both directions.
3:06
The first, the first salvo of this game coming from Carter Verhaeghe, really on the, uh, redirect.
3:12
It was an Evan Rodrigues shot that, uh, Verhaeghe looked like it was gonna be about th- three feet wide in the net, and Verhaeghe, Verhaeghe, uh, redirected it past Stuart Skinner.
3:21
Panthers up one-nothing, and a little more than two minutes later, then the Panthers out, just out of position on defense. Great pass by Cody Ceci down the ice, uh, all the way to, um, Matias Janmark, tied it up.
3:37
That would be the score in the first intermission. Second period, I think what proved to be the game winner, uh, as, uh, again, just defense that sort of, uh, should've picked up Sam Reinhart at the blue line.
3:49
They backed up. Reinhart got himself some space, and it got by Skinner, and that would prove to be all the scoring. That would hold the rest of the way. Panthers win it two to one as the game falls comfortably under.
4:03
And the big... Oh, yes, you were gonna say. Well, I was gonna say also, like after that first period, it felt like the over was gonna hit easily- Sure did... the way, the way both those teams are playing.
4:11
But that, that game-winning goal, if you remember, about like 20 seconds earlier, it was a loose puck in front of the net. Yes. Somebody ju- It, it's amazing hockey. It's like, it's right there.
4:19
Somebody's just gotta tap it in, and, and just the heads-up play by Florida.
4:24
Next thing you know, and it was kind of, uh, they were saying on the broadcast, kind of a soft goal that Skinner gave up, but like you said, also that the defense kind of just let the guy walk up and- Got space...
4:32
they put one in. Yeah. Things happen. No, you're so right. Basically, what ha- hockey happened, right? A near miss on one end, and then, uh, what proved to be the game-winner on the other.
4:41
It, so at the, at the first intermission, after the first period, I text Felika and Will Hill, and I go, "Isn't this gonna be great when, uh, when Connor McDavid wins the Conn Smythe without doing anything in Game 7?"
4:53
He hadn't done anything in Game 6 either. That proved to be the case, uh, which we'll get to here, because this was, this was my sort of timeline as this game was going on.
5:03
Now, let me just preface this again, Wyatt, 'cause this should serve more than anything. The topic sentence here is this should serve as a PSA to betters.
5:10
Just another reminder that awards markets are not actual markets, right? These are not algorithms. These are not, uh, you know, a team is trailing in a baseball game four to two. It's the bottom of the seventh.
5:24
They're two out, but there's a runner at first and third. It's not mechanical like that. It's not even football. A team is down nine points early fourth quarter, third and 13 at their own 12-yard line, right?
5:37
There's an alg- there's an algorithmic, um, output for all of those things. Awards markets are just awards markets.
5:46
Uh, they're the bookmaker's own best reflection of what they think the market ought to be based on bets that they're getting, based on what the general market beyond them is getting.
5:58
So remember now, Connor McDavid headed into this Game 7, was a cartoonish minus 2,500. Uh, cartoonish minus 2,500 going into this game to win the Conn Smythe.
6:10
Now, I did a-- I had a tweet yesterday where I was going through this. Um, at the end of the first period, again, when I had texted Will and Felipe, I was like, he's, he hadn't done anything.
6:19
He was minus 800 at that point, at the end of the first period. By the time the third period started, he was down to minus 260, Connor McDavid.
6:27
Uh, Barkov was actually the next short shot at plus 380, and Sergei Bobrovsky was plus 450. With 16:37 left in the final frame, Bobrovsky and Barkov had flipped in the market.
6:40
McDavid was minus 240, Bobrovsky was plus 350. These numbers are at DraftKings. Barkov was plus 450.
6:47
Uh, a little more than, actually a little less than two minutes later, 14:41 left, McDavid minus 250, Bobrovsky plus 250, Barkov plus 550 at DraftKings.
6:57
And then about a minute and a half later, at 12:52 left in this one, McDavid's minus 200, Bobrovsky down to plus 180. Barkov now drifting minus 750, no need to mention his number anymore.
7:09
With 7:51 left, DraftKings took that market down. So we went over to, uh, I did, I went over to Advocate Skirmish, as they call it. They still had theirs up. 7:02 left.
7:22
This is right after, you may remember this sequence, there were two shots on goals from Evan Bouchard. There was one from Zach Hyman. It was just frenetic.
7:29
McDavid now was down to minus 175, and Bobrovsky, with those saves, plus 120. This was the low mark for Sergei Bobrovsky in the betting markets to win [laughs] the Conn Smythe, which is a full postseason award, mind you.
7:44
Uh, but nonetheless, it was plus 120. Um, Barkov 11 to one, it was not even worth mentioning. And then Advocate Skirmish took it down with just over two minutes left.
7:54
Um, with Bobrovsky under siege, it actually ticked a little bit in the other direction. McDavid was minus 260, and Bobrovsky was plus 190. Of course, the winner ends up being, as we all know, Connor McDavid nonetheless.
8:07
Didn't do anything, didn't, didn't score a point in game seven, didn't in game six. And I get it, the breadth of his playoffs was unbelievable.
8:14
Uh, only Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux had, uh, more points in postseasons than did Connor McDavid. Gretzky had 47 in the '84-'85 playoffs, Lemieux 44 for the Penguins in the '90-'91 playoffs.
8:26
Oh, I remember that one well. Caps went down. Gretzky 43, uh, in the '87-'88 postseason, and here Connor McDavid 42 in the 2023-'24 playoffs.
8:37
Uh, of course, McDavid did not-- By the way, here it is, eight goals, 34 assists, the 42 points I mentioned, 25 takeaways. Um,
8:43
he did not come out to accept the award, Gary Bettman, uh, under a siege of boos when he, when he mentioned that it was an offensive player, and the crowd immediately knew.
8:51
Uh, we were joking how, like, oh, really couldn't get him out with his, like, locker room slippers [laughs] too, how awkward that would be. Thanks, appreciate the award. See you later. How awkward is that?
8:58
It's like, oh, hey, you're, you're the playoff MVP. [laughs] Like, thank goodness he didn't come out, because that'd have been- No, it would've been awful...
9:02
'cause then the, the, like you said, the fans are just gonna, are booing him and whatnot.
9:06
But the main point that I wanna sort of suggest here is, once again, it's a, it's a PSA for all of us, and this applies to football when we're talking football awards, when we talk about baseball awards, which we do a lot, uh, people love them, not only on this show, but network-wide, um, that awards markets are just
9:24
nebulous and are just like this, what we think, I always say we're too close to the sun. The example I use, again, we never, ever mentioned Brandon Crawford in the 2021 NL MVP race, I believe it was.
9:36
No, it may have been 2022. Um, 2021 it was. And Brandon Crawford, I went to San Francisco, my buddy was like, "Hey, Brandon Crawford's winning MVP." And I'm like, "What is he talking about?
9:44
Like, we're, we're better as we know he's not even close to winning MVP." He ended up fourth, right? So, like, we are often way too, um, way too mesmerized by the numbers that are in front of us.
9:55
Here is the actual voting, just to put a bow on this. These are, it is a grand total of 17 voters for the Conn Smythe. Uh, Greg Wyshynski put this out, uh, today.
10:07
Um, 17 voters, this is across the ESPNs of the world, um, and, uh, the Associated Presses of the world and other publications. Connor McDavid, first place on 16 of these 17 ballots.
10:24
I'm gonna just go to the phone here so I can see it, uh, more accurately. 16 of 17, Wyatt, uh, first place votes. Sergei Bobrovsky gets the first place vote in the 17th. Ryan S.
10:36
Clark from ESPN, not that Ryan Clark, but a different Ryan Clark, votes him number one. You know how, and it's first, second, and third.
10:43
Bobrovsky gets no second place votes on any of the 17 ballots, and only two third place votes on third place. In other words, Bobrovsky wasn't even anywhere close to winning this thing. Like, it's not even close.
10:57
McDavid won it in a landslide, uh, with, uh, with Barkov having f- was it 15 of the 17 second place votes. One ballot, it should be noted, and I wanna name a name here, Daniel Nugent-Bowman of The Athletic...
11:13
No, no, that's not correct. Pardon me, Daniel Nugent, uh, Bowman, for bringing your name up on this. Jim Matheson of Postmedia, you're familiar with Postmedia, aren't you? No?
11:21
Uh, McDavid, Hyman, Bouchard, he had three Oilers, one, two, three. Wha- wha- what? What are we doing? We're betting on this stuff.
11:33
It's ridiculous that we're betting on this stuff is the point, and the, whatever the market is doing, oftentimes, and this is a great example, has no bearing whatsoever on anything. It's just there and means nothing.
11:48
Drew Dinsick on the other side. Numbers Game, VSiN, the eSports betting network. With our NFL betting guide dropping this Thursday, there has never been a better time to become a VSiN Pro subscriber.
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13:10
We'll get this right. That was a long read. It was long. It was long. You know, I'm focusing. I'm getting ready for Drew Dincic. Yes. I'm so excited. I got to text him for the first time.
13:16
I was like, "I, I made it in this world." You got to text Drew Dincic for the first- Yes. Did he respond to you? He did. He did. Wow. In a timely manner, and I appreciate that. Wow.
13:24
That is a-- It's like, it's like we're talking about a, a girl that you liked in, uh, at your senior year in high school.
13:28
[laughs] Drew Dincic, everybody, joins us from his, uh, lair in the LBC, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter at whale underscore capper.
13:35
And of course, he's got not one, but two podcasts, The Deep Dive with Andy Molitor, uh, and of course, NBC Sports Bet The Edge, which he does with Jay Croucher.
13:43
And Jay is awesome because he has an accent as well, an Australian accent. Drew, how you doing, man? I am very well. Uh, great time of year, uh, NBA Draft week, uh- Yes...
13:54
NBA, uh, Olympic trials wrapping up for swimming. I got my handicap all done for the, uh, the swimming event. So, uh, yeah, we are, we're cooking. Uh, Tour de France starts this week.
14:05
Uh, really can't complain about the, the, uh, the, the sports world right now. No, not at all.
14:10
I, I said yesterday, sneaky great time of year, and I know you love it, especially when Dr- when you do this thing with your hands where you're like, "Oh, I've got a-" [laughs] "... I've got a secret way to do this."
14:21
Uh, okay, let's talk NBA Draft first. We just passed, was it the two-year anniversary of Paolo Banchero? I can't even keep up anymore. [laughs] Yeah, that was two years ago. Time flies.
14:30
Uh- Can you give us a, can you give us a brief oral history on that, on that week or day? Like, keep it to, like, a minute, like, for those who missed what happened that year. Sure.
14:39
I mean, it is deja vu all over again in that it was a draft class where there was not certainty at the top. I mean, this is a really-- It's, it's, it's, uh, it's...
14:46
The NBA draft in general is just, uh, it's a different beast than the NFL because, uh, there's, like, a two-week turnaround here [laughs] and, uh, you know, the combine and the, the opportunity for these teams to figure out between knowing when they're picking in the lottery and then actually making the pick is such a compressed schedule that you get this situation where you have years like that year with the Magic and this year with the Hawks, where there's huge amount of uncertainty as to who ultimately is going to be the pick at number one.
15:14
And if there's uncertainty at pick number one, that means there's uncertainty everywhere.
15:18
And, uh, I think in general, the, um, you know, the people that were responsible for creating, um, content around the NBA draft that year, uh, that'd be, uh, like, all of them, uh, you know, kind of looked at talent and need and Magic at the top and decided Jabari Smith.
15:36
And then [laughs] you'd, like, he-- that got entrenched to where he was bet out to minus 700 to go first overall.
15:44
Uh, and the weekend before, um, you know, that, the, the, the, what would've been, like, a Saturday, Sunday, uh, this past weekend before the draft, um, you know, you, you're, we, you get...
15:56
You know, there, there are a lot of, um, you know, kind of AAU friends and college program people that have access to these athletes, uh, who come through the, uh, uh, the US system.
16:08
And everyone who was connected to Jabari Smith was like, "Yeah, he had a really bad interview with the Magic." [laughs] And it was like, "Wait a minute." Wait a minute.
16:16
Like, how can he be 700, minus 700 to go first overall if his camp is like, "Yeah, we don't have a promise." The interview went poorly. Uh, and it was like, well, okay, let's start digging a little bit.
16:27
And there was all kinds of s- questions swirling about Chet Holmgren's health, and his team was specifically trying to direct him to the Thunder second.
16:35
Uh, and so you're like, "Okay, well, if the first guy didn't interview well, and the second guy doesn't wanna go there, and the third guy is 20 to one, this doesn't make sense at all."
16:45
Uh, and so got every dime I could on, uh, Banchero to go first overall, and then it broke that way.
16:52
And, uh, you know, the day of the draft, um, uh, Wojnarowski, right before we went live talking about it, uh, uh, said, you know, "It is increasingly likely that Jabari Smith will go first overall."
17:05
And then the market, which had steamed heavily towards Banchero, largely because of, you know, a handful of bettors who were getting Banchero liquidity in, uh, you know, just because it was uncertain, um, you know, that, that forced another correction where you had a, uh, additional opportunity to get money down on Banchero, and, and that's rare, 'cause, you know, this is a low liquidity pool.
17:26
Um, betting the draft is kind of, it's a, it's a- You know, it's not a produ- professional endeavor.
17:31
You only get a couple of bites at the apple in a given year, um, and, uh, you know, liquidity makes it such that, you know, you, if, if, unless you have the nuts and you have an absurd price, you're not gonna get rich doing this.
17:42
So, uh, yeah, it's, it's a, it's a funny, uh, it's a funny marketplace. It's a funny market. And, uh, you know what I mean?
17:48
Like, I don't know that ultimately there's gonna be a huge amount of uncertainty at the top this year, but, uh, you know, you're getting a lot of those same vibes certainly.
17:56
I mean, we had a situation where one week ago Alexander Saar was the heavy favorite to go first overall, and now he's minus 800 to go second overall. So I guess that's decided. Uh, okay. Sure.
18:07
Uh, and, you know, Risache, uh, is, you know, your presumptive first overall pick right now, uh, at least according to the offshore marketplace. And I, I don't know. I guess so.
18:16
[laughs] Like he, uh, maybe he's a, you know, clear top two talent, but maybe not. I mean, this is a really, really weak draft.
18:24
Um, and the team picking first overall, number one, was not expecting to be in this situation 'cause the, uh, lottery was a surprise, and number two is just generally weak themselves.
18:34
Like, they have a weak GM, uh, you know, a guy who's not deeply entrenched in, in terms of the decision-making there, and I think there are probably somewhere between five and 10 voices in the room with different opinions about what the Hawks should do with the first overall pick.
18:47
And, um, and I don't think that there is or should necessarily be strong consensus about what to do as far as the future of the franchise because you have Trae Young and Deonte, De- uh, Dejounte Murray who don't fit well, don't play well together, uh, Trae Young, who I don't know that you're building a championship team around.
19:05
And those guys still have value in terms of bringing in assets if you wanted to move them and start over with this biz- you know, this first overall pick as sort of the anchor of the future of the franchise.
19:15
And, uh, you know, it seems more likely to me there, at least from what I've heard, that, uh, you know, the Hawks are trying to figure out if they have a, a, you know, a trade partner for Trae Young more than they are really even deciding who to take with this pick.
19:27
So, uh, all of this happening, you know, two days before the draft is, is wild. So if I say to you, "What's your instinct? One, two, three," what is your instinct at this moment?
19:37
Well, I mean, I think the most likely is probably Ris- Risache one, Saar two, and the only reason I say that is because Saar's team is, you know, sort of this is the same, same team that, uh, steered Chet Holmgren to Oklahoma City, uh, one of the most, if not the most, powerful rookie agent in the NBA in Bill Duffy, who, uh, you know, sees Washington as a better landing spot for Saar in terms of immediate opportunity, uh, you know, particularly on the offensive side of things.
20:04
And, you know, I, so it's, it, to me at least, Saar kind of stiffing the Hawks in the, in the evaluation process, which is the, you know, the story going around. Mm-hmm.
20:13
Uh, checks out, uh, and that they're pointing him to number two checks out, uh, which means number one and sort of the reports that it's, you know, the Hawks are deciding between Risache and, and Klingon.
20:24
Okay, you read that at face value, fine, fine. No, no, no strong disagreement with that.
20:30
But I will also say that that's seems presumptive on the idea that they're not gonna trade one of the guards, uh, and that there's probably still a door open for a guy like Stephon Castle, who I know they have had in to do a workout and whose team is weirdly quiet.
20:44
Uh, and, uh, you know, I, I've taken some shots on Castle at just some absurd prices, uh, just in case, uh, we have a repeat of history here, where, uh, you know, a guy who, you know, is, is an elite point of attack defender and, uh, you know, is, is kind of has a lot of the fingerprints of a Jalen Brown who just won your finals MVP, uh, you know, is coming into this process and, and being a little bit underrated.
21:07
He's enormous, by the way. He's six-seven. As far as a point guard goes, that's, like, absolutely ideal f- size-wise for today's style of, uh, a defense in the NBA.
21:16
And, uh, I think in general, I'm, I'm fine taking on a project like that as far as trying to get him to be a better shooter and contributor offensively.
21:24
So, uh, we'll see if ultimately there's any, any legs there, but, uh, that's the only kind of weird, absurd shot I've taken in that market.
21:31
Yeah, not to interrupt, but as we, as we approach the wall here, so when you say you've taken some weird shots on Castle, am I to have interpreted it, interpreted that as you took him number one, you took him at other numbers, too, early?
21:44
Oh, I took him... No, I only took him first overall at 100 to one. Okay. 100 to one, number one. Okay. Wow. All right.
21:50
Well, given the Trae Young swirl that you're talking about, any other bet that you still like that's out there that you would say, "Yeah, bet this"?
21:58
Uh, I've heard a lot of rumbling that, um, Dalton Knecht is gonna go in the top seven. Uh, so I played his under pretty heavily.
22:05
That's actually gonna decide my draft night one way or the other, at least as it stands right now. Okay.
22:10
Dalton Knecht, who, uh, I know before the tournament I was thinking we were gonna have a Danny Manning and the Miracles kind of run for, uh, Dalton Knecht out of Tennessee. Um, under,
22:21
you know, Drew says un- in the top seven, so heavily on the under on Dalton Knecht. Uh, as the draft approaches tomorrow night, uh, we'll put a bow on that on the other side.
22:29
We'll also talk about the things that Drew just mentioned. Tour de France, he'll give us a name. We won't know who it is, but we'll just listen to him.
22:35
And then Olympics, 'cause I know he is, uh, just entrenched in that, swimming and beyond. It's a numbers game at VSiN. Drew coming back. V Sports Betting Network.
22:43
With NFL training camp starting in less than a month, the VSiN experts have been hard at work to get you ready for the upcoming NFL season.
22:48
Our all-new VSiN NFL betting guide drops Thursday, packed with everything you need to dominate the NFL season, in-depth profiles of every team, advanced stats, proven betting systems, proprietary betting trends that you will not find anywhere else.
23:00
But that's not all. Our experts have weighed in with their best bets on season win totals, futures, and props. I was putting in my, uh, division.
23:08
Everybody, uh, all, all the VSiN personalities putting in their division and conference at the Super Bowl, champion thoughts, wild cards already on the grid. That'll be in there as well.
23:16
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23:21
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23:25
Tune in this Thursday for expert analysis, insider tips, and all the NFL insight you need to start the season strong.
23:30
Remember, the only way to get our all-new betting guide for the NFL is to become a VSiN pro subscriber, so visit vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today. We get tweets at Beat the Book.
23:41
I'm really looking forward to the football. I was reading, uh- I was reading not our betting guide, which I wanna get into starting on Thursday with all of our, you know, everyone who contributed to it.
23:51
But, uh, um, and Drew, this might have been you who posted this. Mike Tenere from our buddy- Uh-huh... Aaron Shots's FTN operation. He was do- Yeah... he had an NFC East write-up, which you lit- So good.
24:02
[laughs] You literally couldn't get half a sentence in without laughing or remarking how clever it was. You know? [laughs] Yeah. It was just incredible. Yeah.
24:11
Did you- No, that's, that's, that's well said, and I'm glad we're giving him some flowers because- Yeah...
24:15
uh, yeah, defining good, entertaining NFL writing this time of year is hard, and he cr- he was, he crushed it, man. That, that, uh, blog was just absolutely- Yeah. Well-... tone perfect.
24:25
And, uh, yeah, I loved his takes as well. I tru- I trust our NFL betting guide will do the same on Thursday.
24:29
First thing I'm gonna look at, I'm gonna see what you picked for the NFC North, see if you, uh, you went with my Green Bay Packers. We'll see. We'll see how this Thursday will be, Gil. Yeah. It'll either be good or bad.
24:38
What do you think I did? What do you think I did? Look at my eyes. I don't know. I- What do you think I did? I feel like you t- you're, you're still upset- You think I'm Larry David?... about the Lions, I think.
24:44
[laughs] I don't know. I don't know. Might be a spite bet. We get texts and we get tweets. Michael Montesano, Circa survivor, uh, booby prize winner the first year.
24:51
He says, "Speaking of a- awards," He's like, "I believe Nick Sirianni," and then the chicaneries of that market, "market," in quotes.
24:58
"I believe Nick Sirianni was the betting favorite to win Coach of the Year in 2022, and he wasn't even a finalist."
25:03
Um, maybe he was a finalist, can't remember, or maybe he didn't finish top three in votes or something like that, but it was Daboll first, Shanahan second, Peterson third, oh, McDermott fourth, and Sirianni finished fifth.
25:13
That's right. Just an example of that. So again, we're talking about, like, our, our normal handicapping of games and futures with teams.
25:20
Um, then we're talking awards markets, which again, "markets" in quotes, which, you know, there's no algorithm for that. Now, with, with Drew, we're talking about draft, which is a, a puzzle to solve with Googling.
25:32
Uh, who's the best Googler out there? [laughs] Uh, we got, we got tweets and we, and we have some questions for you actually, Drew. Well, one of them is from last week. One of them said, "What is in Drew's fish tank?"
25:40
Where there's a bet. He and his buddy were betting what fish you had in your fish tank. Oh. Oh, yeah. Oh, it's, it's, uh, so they're South American, Central American cichlids. Uh, very- [laughs] They're aggressive fish.
25:51
It's a freshwater tank. Uh, it's a planted aquarium. They're real plants and they're real fish. Uh, and, uh, they're named after our, uh, our, our big three. I got a Roger, I got a Rafa, and I got a Joker. Come on.
26:02
No, I'm serious. I love that. [laughs] I like... Well- That's awesome. May I ask, what makes it an aggressive fish? Yeah, what do they do? Are they, like, coming up to the window, kind of like threatening?
26:10
Uh, oh, they, they're, they just, they, they don't, they're not the kind that just float around all day like goldfish. They are active as hell. Oh.
26:17
And, uh, they, yes, they, uh, they, they, they don't eat each other, but they like to fight each other and, and, uh, and have some fun. Uh, so, you know. I don't think- Just like the big, like the big three.
26:28
Like the big three. I don't think either of these guys won their bet, by the way. That's, [laughs] that's why I was laughing. Oh, okay. Uh, okay. This is, uh, uh, Sean saying at, uh, Sean's box play.
26:37
He says, "The movement has started. Resse Shea has gone, uh, is getting longer in price. Klingon, it's now minus 250, plus 250." Um, oh, Michael Burns, "Now do Wemby Defensive Player of the Year vote.
26:49
I'm still angry," he says. Uh, numbers guys, this question for Drew,
26:53
and this actually dovetails nicely into what I was gonna ask you, like, what's the thing that's most uncertain about this draft and this market and the NBA draft tomorrow? Mm-hmm.
27:01
He specifically asks, "Question for Drew, is Dalton Connect at number three, specifically at number three at 100 to 1, a play you might recommend?" Uh, absolutely. Yes, 100%.
27:13
The, of the market, like, number one is wrong just because I think it's flatter than the market implies, right? But the worst price I think is, is number three.
27:22
Um, I don't get the sense that there's strong tie between Houston and, and Reed Shepherd at all.
27:29
I think, in fact, if he, if he goes three, I would be, I would guess he probably goes to some, you know, either Houston's taking him and then trading him, or somebody has traded into that pick because from what I understand, Houston, in terms of where they view themselves as a franchise, they're not really interested in draft and develop at this point.
27:46
Like, they've got their guys. [laughs] They're actually, they have a very, you know, their depth chart is actually kind of deep.
27:52
Um, and, uh, if anything, they'd like to move younger players to get established vets, the Marcus Smart's of the world, uh, uh, to try to, you know, make a run this year with the talent that they've got.
28:02
So, um, I would not be surprised at all if ultimately that goes to, uh, you know, and, and, you know, again, like the teams that I've heard connected to Connect are teams with lots of draft capital, but, you know, the Thunders of the world, the, um, you know, the, the, um, uh, teams that win and teams in general that wanna try to get ahead of Portland because apparently the secret is out that Portland would take Connect at seven if he is there.
28:26
So, uh, I think kind of that f- you know, that three, five, uh, six spots in terms of trade opportunities, uh, for a lot of these teams would be, uh, you know, kind of going up there and getting Connect ahead of Portland.
28:39
Uh, and Houston may just take Connect third overall. It would not shock me at all. So 100 to 1 for that is a, is a great bet.
28:45
And in general, like, if you're making a bet on this year's NBA draft, if it has three numbers in it- Go for it... [laughs] congratulations, you made a good bet, even if it never cashes.
28:54
Like, this is a hugely uncertain, uh, overall system this year in particular. And, uh, yeah, I, I have no, um, you know, no reservations whatsoever taking some shots.
29:05
It really is a, uh, it's a, a cousin of that famous clip from The Office. If somebody gives you 10,000 to 1 on anything, this is- [laughs] If somebody gives you 100 to 1 on anything, take it for this NBA draft.
29:16
Uh, all right, real quick, 'cause we only got four minutes. Tour de France, give us the 90-second synopsis. What do we need to know? Yeah, so last four years you've had two champions. It was Pogačar, Pogačar. Sure.
29:28
Vingegaard, Vingegaard. Sure. Uh, and, uh, Vingegaard last year won because he was in the best shape of the tour.
29:34
Pogačar came in injured, or he had, you know, he had gotten injured in the, uh, preparation, so he was a little bit out of shape, and, and Vingegaard just put him in the hurt box in week two.
29:43
Um, and, uh, this year it's a little bit of the shoe's on the other foot. Uh, Vingegaard got hurt in, uh, April at the, uh, Basque, Tour of Basque Country. Of course, you're very familiar with Basque Country.
29:51
Absolutely, I am. Um, yeah, he, uh, he had a bad wreck there. Uh, broke, you know, fractured his collarbone, so he, he missed a ton of training time. Meanwhile, Pogačar is riding like an absolute man possessed.
30:01
So, uh, to make things, uh, worse for Vingegaard, he's lost his number one lieutenant, Sepp Kuss, uh, who helps pull him up hills. He will not be in the Tour for team, uh, Visma.
30:11
Uh, and I think in general, uh, Pogačar's UAE team is much stronger this year than they have been in years past, and I think, uh, he could, uh, he could run away with this thing, so.
30:21
Uh, the Slovenian Tadej Pogačar for me for the, uh, Tour de France. Maillot jaune, that is, uh, of course, the, uh, the yellow jersey. Drew could be telling us anything- [laughs]... and I'd just be like, "Yes." Pogačar.
30:34
Pogačar is the bet. That's what I'm hearing. Let me- Pogačar... let me just say, I'm just so glad I didn't have to type any of this out for graphics. You're not putting this on the thebeaston.com/picks page?
30:42
Oh, yes, you-- no, I'm sorry. I don't know. I don't know how we do it. I, I don't know where to begin. I don't know how we do it. I don't even know how to... [laughs] All right.
30:48
And then you have been at, uh, I got the Roku on, and every day I think of you- Oh, sure... because up there I've got, you know, your standard sports, and then there's the, there's these trials.
30:56
Name your sport, there's always a trials, and I'm like, "Drew's watching that right now." What do you got for us? Oh, next question. Uh, so I'm done with my swimming projections.
31:03
Uh, US gold projections are down, uh, relative to, um, a normal year for us. Usually we're scooping 11, 12, 15 golds in swimming.
31:12
Uh, but the world has caught up to us, and we only have four that, four events that I think are likely, that is to say over 90% chance to win gold, uh, at the Olympics this year in swimming.
31:22
Katie Ledecky in the 1500 freestyle. Uh, Gretchen Walsh in the 100 fly. Uh, the women's 4x100 medley I think we are pretty likely to win, and the men's 4x100 medley I think we are likely to win.
31:33
That is, uh, that is, that is low. Usually we're, like, six or seven liklies. We're only at four. Uh, our big kind of chunk is 50 to 90%, I would say. Uh, and I'll call these could happen. Uh, Ledecky in the 800 free.
31:47
She's gotta beat Summer McIntosh. That's gonna be one of the best races of the entire Olympics. Uh, women's 200 IM, Katie Douglas is gonna go up against a, a really stacked field.
31:56
That's gonna be an incredible race, but she should win, could win. Uh, fingers crossed. Same for Katie Douglas in the women's 200 breaststroke.
32:03
Uh, Regan Smith in the women's 100 and 200 back is basically a coin flip in both of those races up against Australia's Kaylee McKeown.
32:11
Uh, and then Ryan Murphy in the men's 100 and 200 back in, in some super talented fields. Those are both coin flips. Uh, Matt Fallon, uh, men's 200 breaststroke, a coin flip.
32:20
And Caeleb Dressel, uh, men's 100 fly is a coin flip. And, um, you know, so if we take half of those, that gets us into s- the, uh, the eight golds kind of, uh, range.
32:31
Uh, and then we have a, you know, a handful of maybes. Uh, Lilly King in the 100 breast. Gretchen Walsh in the 50 free. Caeleb Dressel in the 50 free. Jack Alexy in the 100 free. Uh, Nick Fink in the 100 breast.
32:43
Uh, and, uh, uh, and then long shot chances are 1500 free, Katie Ledecky in the 400 free. Uh, Regan Smith in the 200 fly. Foster in the, uh, men's 200 IM and 400 IM. Fink in the 100 free for the 8- 800 free.
32:58
Uh, and then a bunch where we have absolutely no chance, including the women's 400 IM, th- which is gonna go to Summer McIntosh. The 200 free, which is gonna go to Ariarne Titmus.
33:08
And then the Australians are gonna win gold in the women's 4x200 free and the 4x100 free relay. Wow. Well, I think I speak for everyone when I say I'm gonna have to listen to that back. [laughs] Uh, that's a lot.
33:20
Thank you, Drew. Appreciate it, and more Olympics next week with you. Of course. I'll send you my cliff notes. Wimbledon on Thursday, yes? Podcast. Let's do it. Coming back with John Legersa next.
33:38
Back on a numbers game. Un partido de numeros, if you're doing this in Spanish, for those listening in Spanish. It's Gil Alexander. It's Wyatt Tomchek in for Kelly Bidlin, who is, uh, you know, just taking a week off.
33:50
Doing his thing. You know, w- Whatever his thing might be... well-deserved vacation for Kelly. People say that, you know? They're always like, "Well-deserved." And I always push back. I'm like, "Is it?"
33:59
You know, that kind of thing. As a guy who- Sorry, I'm sorry, Kelly... who likes- I'm sorry... no, no, no, for Kelly it is. [laughs] But I'm like, in general, people are like, "Well-deserved vacation." Um, I don't know.
34:06
We just default to that? Sometimes I don't know. Sometimes it's not well-deserved. Maybe you just don't like the person. Uh. You're like, "It's well-deserved."
34:11
Yeah, maybe Ke- You know, I take as much as you, uh- Maybe Kelly's like, "I'm sick of Gil. I'm going away for a while." I won't reveal our texts. I'm just kidding. [laughs] It could be. I'm just kidding.
34:18
It could very well be that. [laughs] Uh, we get, uh, tweets at Beat the Book. I always appreciate the feedback. Uh, as far as Drew's, uh, fish are concerned, Bruce Dobek, and is the fishy, goes, "I'm the fish guy.
34:28
Cichlids. Thought if they weren't AI, they were Jack Dempsey's. Damn, Roger, Rafa, and Joker. Sublime," he says. Cichlids from Drew does it. When he said aggressive fish, I thought the same thing you did.
34:38
I was like, "Oh, no. Is he talking about fighting each other?" I think like, I like, the only aggressive fish I can think of is like a piranha or like, [laughs] you know, something like that. Mike Stacks.
34:46
This is a great tweet. "Gil, based on the 17 voters you just showed us, don't you think the books would have someone inside to know how the votes are leaning?
34:55
So when they offer, uh, these crazy prices, they're just collecting free money on everyone except for the McDavid bettors. Looks that way to me."
35:06
So what you're suggesting is they know h- which way the voters are, uh, uh, are going. Either they've submitted their ballots or they haven't. They know that, and then
35:16
to induce bets on others, like Bobrovsky, they have this massive m- movement Uh, to quote Kevin Garnett, anything is possible. Which I believe is exactly what Kevin Garnett meant when he said it. It wasn't Jayson Tatum?
35:31
Oh, [laughs] Jay- Jayson Tatum still with the... I don't, not enough was made of that, right? We didn't make enough of that.
35:36
The corniest post-game let me s- desperately search for a meme by he, by what they gonna say now? What they... Like he, he, he was f- he was workshopping like four, four different things the whole time afterwards.
35:49
[laughs] Dropped the mic at one of the, uh, post-game things. Anyway, that's a, that's a pretty interesting, uh, tweet from, uh, Mike Stacks. Um, anything is possible. Could, could a book know that? Yes.
36:00
Um, do I think they know it every time? I don't, but it's an interesting thought nonetheless. Um, absolutely possible. John Leganza joins us now, instant office. He's the microwave, he's the Vinnie Johnson of this show.
36:14
Uh, he joins us courtesy of the Progressive guest line to talk some baseball with us. He's, uh, the host of the Cork Stats podcast, MLB and NFL writer for The Athletic, and you can follow him on Twitter at John Leganza.
36:24
That's L-A-G-H-E-Z-Z-A, Laghezza. What's happening? Ding. Gil, what's going on, man? Spike it, let's go, man. I could not be more ready. How's your baseball season going, man? You know, it's been up and down.
36:38
Luckily yesterday we t- had a massive sweep. You know, sometimes turning a cruise ship around takes a long time.
36:44
But we're playing right around flat, which, you know, for a lot of people that actually model and then try and do picks, you know, this is stuff you and I have talked about off air.
36:52
It's difficult enough to model, but then to try and, you know, challenge the general market as prices are moving, and do content creation, very difficult. So, you know, we're right around flat, I'm pretty happy.
37:02
I'm actually looking to close out strong, 'cause I think we're starting to see the warm weather impact the offense a little bit, and things are starting to pick up just a touch.
37:13
I'm gonna throw this out at you right here, Wyatt, so I apologize for doing this, but, uh, updated the, uh, the June wins total last night.
37:19
The Boston Red Sox with their come from behind win over the Toronto Blue Jays yesterday. They were down four, they were down six to two. They come back, they tie it in the eighth, they win it in the ninth.
37:29
They are 14 and 7 now in the month of June, headed into the final six days of the month of June. They have a one win advantage over a bevy of teams, including our 25 to 1 Houston Astros at 13 to 7.
37:45
And you have a play on the Astros today, sir, and I was, uh... I smiled when I saw it. What do you got? Yeah, Wyatt was pretty thrilled. Give me the Astros today. So they're at home hosting the Rockies.
37:56
Let's not bury the lead, we like them by a million, so we're gonna take the run line cover. This one was even money early on this morning.
38:03
As my model tends to do, sometimes we put our weight, our thumb on the scale of the market. I think I saw it at minus 125, which is still really viable and all within the model stuff.
38:12
So you, the Rockies are throwing Austin Gomber. It's been really brutal for, it's been really brutal for him. You know, the expected ERA is north of five, he doesn't strike anybody out.
38:21
Single digit KBB, single digit swinging strike. He falls behind and then misses the zone, a lot of the stuff we're looking for.
38:27
Plus he's struggled with home runs, 355 expected warb on the year, and you can't even blame it on course. He has not been good. He has a five ERA on the road anyway. So he's gonna face your Astros and Hunter Brown.
38:40
One of the... I think it's funny, you asked me how the season was going.
38:43
I think one of the reasons that I usually do so well, I don't wanna put the horns on it, is, you know, we always have our eye in the market and we're watching the kind of trends change. Hunter Brown's a perfect example.
38:54
He had a 10 ERA through six starts. So Gil, if you're using year to date stats, it takes a long time to correct it. Again, to turn the cruise ship takes a long time. They dunk the fastball.
39:05
I'm usually not a big sinker fan, but in his case it's worked, 'cause it's helping him work lower in the zone, and Brown's been fantastic lately and kind of living up to all the pedigree hype that we thought we got.
39:16
So when these young men really hit that stride, you gotta take that first clump in the beginning and maybe just amputate it. He's got a 3.4 expected ERA in the season.
39:25
Now, all the, even the season stats are starting to come up. We love the ground ball rate. I think we have an edge all the way around.
39:31
Houston offense has not been great without Tucker, but they are, you know, at least an order of magnitude better than the Rockies on the road. And then you go into the bullpen, where we really look at a butter or bread.
39:42
All year I've been picking on the Rockies bullpen. They kind of remind me of the A's last year, meaning the...
39:48
Yes, the team as constructed and on a day-to-day basis is not good, but the bullpen is so historically bad that it really moves the entire market and even the general perception.
40:01
So the Rockies bullpen has an eight and a quarter ERA over the last 45 innings, a two whip, 325 batting average allowed.
40:07
So if we don't get the two runs early, Gil, have some patience, 'cause I think we're gonna stick it to him.
40:12
Between Beaks and Kinley, they just don't have anybody to get critical outs, and last I checked, Jordan Alvarez is really good. So I really like the Astros minus 125 to cover it.
40:23
I think this one closes probably closer to 150, minus 150 I mean. By the way, uh, worst record in the month of June for those who care, uh, tied between the White Sox, Athletics and Rockies. All are 6 and 16. Yeah.
40:35
The Rockies have the second worst run differential in all of the month of June, a minus 52 in this month alone. Only the Marlins at 6 and 14 with a minus 55 run differential worse in that department.
40:48
And so for me in this bet of June at Circa, 'cause I have double the action at, uh, at William Hill Caesars, but I do have a bet here at Circa too, that is determined the tiebreaker is fewest wins and best run differential.
41:01
So I would love for the Astros to just run it up today and tomorrow against the Rockies. Well, they're looking really good. Yeah. Again, it's the pendulum.
41:08
If baseball and the season as a macro is about the little pendulum swings within, then I'm really... I really like the direction, the trajectory that the Astros were on.
41:18
Just really quick to expand on the point that you mentioned. Those really bad teams, yes, they're really bad. I probably shouldn't be doing air quotes. Those are the worst bullpens in the league. Yeah.
41:27
In particular with the White Sox and even the, even the A's now, they're actually very profitable F5 teams, 'cause they roll out cromulent starters for the White Sox.
41:37
Listen, Erik Fedde and Garrett Crochet are very profitable F5 pitchers. Then the bullpen blows the game, they wake up the next day, and you know, the White Sox are underdogs again.
41:47
But that F5 is still money in your pocket. So when we think about these bad teams, people, I think the good lesson is, m- think of them in terms of an F5 team and a full game team.
41:57
The Rockies with Quantrill and Gamber, that's a little bit different. We don't wanna touch them at all, but you know, the A's with Estes, Hogan, Sears, and then, like I said, Crochet and Fedde for the White Sox.
42:08
There are, you know, nice spots to take your shots in and out race to 15 outs. You have another play, and this is about a team, the Washington Nationals, which in the month of June are two games above 500.
42:18
For the season, they're two games below 500. They're only one and a half games out of a playoff spot in the National League. You like them today in a first five bet.
42:28
Look at us, Stockton to Malone, perfect setup and a segue, they call that in the business. You know, looking at the Nationals today, another one of those teams that they carry a certain narrative.
42:38
They're not a great team 'cause they don't hit for power. But pound for pound basis, Mackenzie Gore is excellent. You know, 3.5 ERA, the 1.4 WHIP's a little high, but it's on a 377 BABIP, which you're correct.
42:49
21 KBB, 15 swinging strike. This is all really strong. Three quarters of a homer nine, 291 expected WAR on the season.
42:56
Adam Easor, or Ma- Masur, excuse me, on the bump for the Padres, so that's why we like the F5, 'cause the Nats bullpen's been a bit sketchy. Padres offense also not quite the same without Fernando Tatis.
43:06
I could not believe Gore was listed even money. Masur has a seven and a quarter ERA, a 2 WHIP and 830 OPS expected ERA, north of five and a quarter. Yeah, I just love this one.
43:16
I think the Nats should kind of bully the Padres, who have struggled against lefties in the first place. Give me all the swing and miss stuff, maybe a ground ball, double play or two.
43:24
I think the Nats get this one two to one, three to one through five even money. I am looking at, uh, first five stats up to the minute. Uh, up to the minute first five, the most profitable team's first five this year.
43:38
I'm just trying to see where the Nats... The Nats are the seventh most profitable first five team in all of baseball this year. Um, by the way, number- Jake Irvin... number one, any guesses?
43:48
'Cause Jake Irvin comes in at an underdog. Yeah, you know what I mean? Any guesses who number one is? First five most profitable.
43:52
Again, if you bet this team- I feel like it would be the White Sox, but, uh, maybe it's the Guardians. The White Sox are sixth, which is an amazing thing. Okay. Philly. Who's one? Philadelphia Phillies, number one.
44:02
Oh, well, yeah, they never lose, dog. They never lose. Makes sense with their starters. It helps to not lose. [laughs] It, it helps to not lose. Thank you, John. Appreciate it. Put it on my tombstone. Love you, Dale.
44:11
Have a great weekend, everybody. You too, man. Little Wimbledon talk on the other side. It's a numbers game at Visa, the sports betting network.
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