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Jun 25, 2024
A Numbers Game | June 25, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | June 25, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:20
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:10
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. How are you taking us in? We appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:18
It is Wyatt Tomcheck in for Kelly Bidlin, live from Bar Canada here at the D, downtown Las Vegas, proudly brought to you by DraftKings. What's happening? Why are you staring me down? I was, I was waiting, I was waiting.
0:29
Oh, okay. [laughs] I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm entrenched on what you're saying. Oh, it's riveting what I w- what I had to say.
0:33
Uh, still to come this hour, by the way, Wyatt, uh, Paul Carr on the Euros, Euro Cup 2024, and, uh, Paul Spohrer on a whole bunch of season-long baseball thoughts that he has as we approach the All-Star break.
0:44
We're about, uh, two and a half weeks, almost three weeks, somewhere in that pocket away from the All-Star break. So it's the end of not next week, but the end of the following week begins the All-Star break.
0:54
Um, let's clean up some stuff from previous segments. One, one, you had a, uh, you had that fact that I think Will McDonough laid out, or was it Will McDonough who s- who said it? Not Will McDonough, probably.
1:02
Uh, Sean McDonough. Sean McDonough. Yeah. His son, Sean McDonough, said it on the broadcast last night. By the way, Sean McDonough, very emotional at the end of the broadcast yesterday. I liked it.
1:09
You know, it's, it's the, it's the end of the s- you know, the season. It's the first championship for the Panthers. Obviously, it's a momentous occasion. I like, I like the emotion in a broadcaster.
1:18
But he had been, he had been sick earlier in the series. Yes. I think it was, it was either game three or game four. You can clearly tell. Yeah. People are like, "Man, this guy has, like, no energy."
1:27
I'm like- Well, people, and people were giving him some incoming, and I, I felt it from him. Well, so Sean McDonough, uh, is one of those, he's a very high energy. Yeah.
1:37
And I always love wa- uh, listening to him call games. So he, uh, for people to think that he has no energy, nah. He said, "Made this 62-year-old's dream come true," uh, doing that series.
1:46
Um, but, uh, where were we going with that? Oh, uh, you, you had a fact that he, he said. It was a funny thing.
1:51
So Evan Rodrigues, off the, uh, the Florida Panthers, who scored, uh, uh, I think he had the most goals for the Panthers that series. I'm gonna have to double-check on that.
1:58
But he's the first Evan in Stanley Cup history. I heard him say that. It, it'll be the first Evan on the Stanley Cup trophy. Such a random fact, like, that they, that- Yeah... first of all, that someone knew that.
2:09
I wonder if there's a Wyatt that's ever won a Stanley. I, I was trying to look. Oh. Wyatt Johnson, you know, what, he's been a heck of a player. I don't want to see the Dallas Stars win it.
2:15
Maybe you can go to the Golden Knights or the, uh, Detroit Red Wings. But, um, yeah, I, I wanna know who the, who the person was that was scrolling through the Stanley Cup to find Evan.
2:25
Jeff Staples on Twitter, he says, uh, "Can't you just hear Emily Kaplan asking one of her fellow Conn Smythe voters, 'You just voted for Connor McDavid. How does that make you feel?'" [laughs] That's such a great tweet.
2:36
Emily Kaplan's post, uh, post-game interview's not as, not always insightful, is what I think, uh, I think what Jeff Staples is getting at right there. Um, [laughs] okay. Uh, so I wanna clean up some stuff.
2:47
Drew, he, he rifled through literally, um, I'll count them for you, like close to 20 swimming bets for the Olympics, Drew did. Um, and I know they were super fast, and I know it was impossible to get all of them.
3:02
He did text them, them to us. Uh, and he had them under the category of likely, meaning 90% or greater than 90%, could happen, maybe, small shot, no chance.
3:13
From an American standpoint, um, I'll just give you the likelies, the ones that are above 90% he says are happening. Uh, Katie Ledecky in the women's 1500 free, Gretchen Walsh in the women's 100 fly,
3:27
and then both our women's and men's 4 by 100 medleys. That's what MED stands for. So those are the four that he says are likely to happen from an American standpoint in swimming.
3:39
The other thing before we get to tennis, College World Series, congratulations to everybody who had Tennessee to win the College World Series. They were the short shot. They were the number one overall seed.
3:47
They are the first overall number one seed to win the College World Series in 25 years, since the 1999 Miami Hurricanes. So congratulations to all. Um, that was going on at the same time as the hockey game was going on.
4:00
So, uh, you had one eye on hockey, maybe you had one and a half eyes on hockey, but the baseball game was going on.
4:06
It was, it was three to one Tennessee, then it was six to one, but then a rally from A&M got it six to three. And then in the, and you may have missed this, and Todd Wright was, uh, texting me about this.
4:17
Texas A&M got it to six to five. That was the eventual final score of this. And Todd Wright was pointing out the total was 10 and a half.
4:27
And for those, and, and at the Hard Rock, at least where he lives in Florida, they offered a run line on Tennessee at minus one and a half.
4:33
And he said the final sequence of this, where the, it, it, the over cashed and the run line on Tennessee anyway failed. He said, uh, the Ten- the Tennessee pitcher
4:44
single-handedly, he said, giving A&M a fifth run with two outs in the ninth. The runner on first went to second without being held on fir- on the first pitch.
4:51
Then he balked him to third before throwing the next pitch by attempting to throw to first, where no one was, and then sent him home on an 0-2 wild pitch to the backstop.
5:02
That made it six to five with nobody on base, and he struck out the final batter on the next pitch. Um, he s- he said he, he goes, he flipped both single-handedly with two outs in the ninth.
5:11
He said that the, the strange throw, like fake to first, or he throw to first, whatever it was, he says, like even his teammates, according to Todd Wright, were like, "What is he doing?"
5:21
So it was a very interesting ending to that game. He threw it to fir- where was the guy? Was the guy on- The guy, the guy was on third. [laughs] According to Todd.
5:26
I, I didn't see the final sequence, but that is, so it was like shenanigans, weird, weird stuff happening at the end of the game. What's, what's, what's the old, uh, thing on, uh, Major League?
5:32
Just a bit outside on that throw. [laughs] So- You know... I don't know if he threw it or he faked it. It w- nothing happened on that, but then he wild pitched, uh, on the wild pitch he won it.
5:40
But it was just a bizarro ending. Uh, but congratulations again to Tennessee and those who had Tennessee. Uh, we'll always wonder what would have happened if that was not ruled a check swing against FSU.
5:50
I will just say that in, in conclusion. Uh, okay, tennis. Yesterday, in case you missed it, I, we're doing Drew, Drew, Drew, by the way, said yes to that, uh, question at the end of his segment, but his mic was cut off.
6:00
Um- We're doing a podcast on Thursday. Zach Cohen, uh, should be joining us as well. I should probably let Zach know that it's gonna be Thursday at nine thirty. Um, so we're doing a Wimbledon podcast.
6:09
Grass, as I was talking about yesterday, it's the shortest of all the tennis surface seasons, right?
6:13
Hard court is, uh, the most data because you're playing it early in the calendar year, you're playing it late in the calendar year. So it's, it's the most robust.
6:22
It al- also happens to be the best surface, um, for me, and there's no, there's no s- secret to why that is, because the data is the most robust. Clay, fairly good as well. Grass is five weeks a year, man.
6:34
There just isn't. Man, call me, man. Five is just... Five weeks of grass, and it, it's-- there's not as much to say about it.
6:41
Um, the draw less important than in other-- than on other surfaces in Slams also because you just don't know as much. But that doesn't mean you still can't go into the raw data of serve percentage and return percentage.
6:54
And I was mentioning when I did the men's side yesterday that, yes, the, the big headline is Djokovic. We don't know if Djokovic is playing yet or not. We still haven't determined that. Sinner and Alcaraz
7:05
are the second and third best, Djokovic fourth best, when it comes to raw one-year grass numbers. One year, we're talking, like, weeks, right? It's not really a year of tennis.
7:14
We're just talking about a small sample size of weeks. But the one person who has better grass numbers than those great players, Sinner, Alcaraz-- Actually, yeah, in order, Sinner, Alcaraz, Djokovic.
7:25
Grigor Dimitrov I mentioned, right? So Grigor Dimitrov, I said if you, if you want, if you were interested in a flyer on the men's side, Dimitrov at twenty to one, not knowing the draw, right? Uh, I don't know.
7:35
Dimitrov is what? He's forty to one? Forty to one, pardon me, not knowing the draw. Um, if you, if you took a flyer on him hoping that he would get deep into it, then you could earn on that.
7:45
Um, that would not be something I would hate because of his raw numbers. And then the long shots are the serve bots, other long shots. Matteo Berrettini, twenty-two to one.
7:54
Uh, he has good grass numbers historically, as he has pretty solid grass numbers, very good. Um, he's gone deep in this tournament once or twice.
8:01
And then, uh, Milos Raonic is the real long shot, a hundred to one, 'cause he's a serve bot, and if he just serves you after, after, you know, match after match, if he just gets on a streak, um, then he could go deep.
8:11
But those are all long shots, and those would be the ones that I would, uh, sort of endorse taking a flyer on, hoping one of them gets deep because of their raw numbers and because of their serve prowess in the case of the last two.
8:23
Women's side, I did the numbers yesterday, and we always talk about, uh, the world number one, Iga Świątek, and how, uh, I believe she's going to be the greatest of all time when all is said and done.
8:32
And much of that will be because she won a ton of tournaments, a ton of French Opens specifically on, um, on clay because she is Rafa Nadal. Um, she's the female Rafa Nadal on that surface.
8:43
Well, when I went through the grass numbers, again, these are one-year grass numbers. They are not nearly as robust.
8:48
I'm not suggesting they are as the other surfaces, hard court in all its gradations or clay in all its gradations. But guess who's got the best data for the last year in grass?
8:58
Iga Świątek, which was a bit of a surprise to me, I have to tell you. Um,
9:05
it's about two point-- Um, and when I'm aggregating the numbers of, of serve and return serve, and, um, essentially the way that I do it is if you're at a hundred, you're an average tennis player if you add those two things together.
9:18
Uh, if you're below a hundred, you're below average on that service. You're above a hundred, you're better than average.
9:23
And if you get to like a hundred and ten, which the Djokoviches of the world do on multiple services, and Iga does now on multiple services. Iga's one thirteen point six on grass, just to give you a number to it.
9:36
Um, the other, Sabalenka and Rybakina are at one oh eights. Again, it's a very small sample size, right? It's only weeks' worth of grass tennis. So we're, we're talking, you know, matches that you can count easily.
9:49
But Iga still has the best numbers. And so, Wyatt, I, I bet Iga at four to one. I was mentioning this when Zach was on the other day. I bet her at four to one to win this [chuckles], and I like in the French Open.
10:00
And finally, the Alcaraz-Świątek, uh, parlay hit, as you recall, in the French Open at plus four fifty, we hit that. I actually parlayed her with only two players, with Sinner and with Alcaraz, and we show those.
10:12
Those are actually really good numbers because Iga's not the short shot, right? Alcaraz-Świątek pays seven to one. Sinner-Świątek plays-- uh, pays plus eight fifty on this.
10:21
So those are my, those are my Wimbledon bets to this moment. I did not play the, the long shots, uh, that I, that I was just talking about.
10:30
I'm just saying I could see why one would on Dimitrov, on, uh, Raonic, or on Berrettini. On the ladies' side, in between Świątek and Sabalenka and Rybakina, Maddie Keys, Madison Keys, who has been to one Slam final.
10:48
Remember when she lost to Sloane Stephens back in the day in the US Open? She's at one ten. Jessie Pegula, sneaky freaky brother sneaking in from the rear.
10:57
Jessie Pegula, one oh nine point four, and, uh, she is an interesting case as well.
11:02
So I think there's a couple American players here at Wimbledon that are kind of live, and as far as, like, the sort of, "Hey, if you must take a long shot," they're actually two interesting candidates.
11:15
I know a lot of people are gonna talk about Coco and Naomi Osaka. I actually don't see it. Ons Jabeur at thirteen to one is a better play than those two, in my opinion.
11:23
Uh, Jessie Pegula is twenty-two to one, and we don't even see Madison Keys on the board. Is she, is she, uh, in this tournament? I believe she is. Um, but let's see where she ends up in the draw.
11:32
These are all pre-draw thoughts. But in terms of raw data, those are the names that I would just sort of throw out there. But my bets, again, Iga to win it, and then Iga-Sinner and Iga-Alcaraz in terms of the parlays.
11:44
We'll come back. Paul Carr, big day in soccer. He's got a bunch of picks. Euro twenty twenty-four on the other side. Numbers game. Visa, the esports betting network.
11:58
So let's see, we've talked, uh, Tour de France, swimming, tennis, College World Series, hockey on the show today. When's football coming? How about Thursday? Two days from now. Our NFL betting guide drops on Thursday.
12:10
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12:27
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12:33
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12:53
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13:04
But yeah, 13 months of VSiN Pro for just $199, reserved a copy of our all-new NFL betting guide. That's vsin.com/subscribe. Although none of them are in my name, so, eh. None in your name? Nope. Oh, okay.
13:17
Well, uh- Maybe, maybe. Maybe we'll have to revisit that one. Uh, by the way, a couple things. One, also, we, we went back and we, I let you know the, uh, the four likely swimming plays that Drew had, just in case
13:29
rapid fire passed you by and you were interested in those. Also, the cyclist, again, for the Tour de France that he mentioned, which I know [laughs] people are hanging on for. Uh, his name again, Tadej Pogacar.
13:43
Tadej Pogacar. His name is spelled P-O-G-A-C-A-R. Pogacar, for those who missed that.
13:51
By the way, vsin.com/picks, uh, we have, uh, every host, every guest, every sport, every pick is there for subscribers at vsin.com/picks. I had two tennis picks heading into today. Uh, Sebastian Ofner over, uh, Darderi.
14:06
He is up a set and he is serving for the match right now, up 5-4 in the second. What could go wrong? Um, but we have one more today, in case you're interested, and that is on, uh, Katarina Siniakova.
14:20
Or is it Siniakova, I believe. Uh, she's in playing in Hamburg, Bad Hamburg, uh, against Ludmila Samsonova. She is a +115 dog on the website. Again, for our subscribers last night, I got her at +126.
14:33
I would still play her at +115. I would not let it get below +110. So Siniakova, Katarina Siniakova, the only remaining play in tennis today. Which brings us to soccer, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
14:45
It's our buddy Paul Carr who joins us on Twitter, @paulcarr, C-A-R-R, is where you can find him. He, of course, is the host of the Expected Value podcast and works at True Media Networks. He is a hardworking man.
14:55
He's the hardest working man in show biz. Paul, explain to the people, I don't know why I got Cosby there all of a sudden, but explain to the people what you do. Like, what are you in the midst of working on?
15:04
Yeah, this is probably my busiest mo- month of the year. We, True Media, I and my guys Steve and Blake, do game notes for Fox for the major tournaments. So World Cups, in this case they have COPA and Euros.
15:16
So we're writing four to six pages of notes for all 83 games that they have in these tournaments over this month. So we are just past the halfway point. I think 48 out of 83 down. Jeez. Wow.
15:29
And that is- That's, that's a lot... how long, what, how long does one take to do? Uh, the first one's always the longest, because you're assembling everything for the first time. Once you get going, I mean, it's
15:40
two to four hours for one. You know, a lot of it's just updating, but then you also, you know, look at the last game, find some trends. This guy's hurt, what does that mean? Trying to stay up on those sorts of things.
15:49
So yeah. And there's a big prep process of, you know, we can do head-to-heads for the group match-ups in advance because we know what those match-ups are six months out, things like that. Yeah. Yeah. But it's a lot.
15:58
It's just so many, you know, a lot of these teams you can do off the top of your head just about. Yeah. Obviously, your, your US's, your England's, your Germany's.
16:05
But, you know, you get down in the Georgia's, like, can't say I know a lot about Georgia outside of their couple of key players and, and things like that. Well, you know what?
16:12
They- So it's, it's a lot of prep work, so it makes it easier during the tournament. It's funny you bring up Georgia.
16:16
Kelly and I had the, the screens on, uh, at the end of one of our Numbers Game shows and, and Turkey was playing Georgia, and we could identify the Turkey flag, and then I, somehow I pulled Georgia, but I was like, we couldn't recognize it immediately, the Georgian flag.
16:28
Right. Um, okay, well, it's not mining coal. It's a labor of love. People should know he's not complaining. Nope. It's just, I just wanted to point out how hardworking he is.
16:35
And Ofner, of course, gets broken with a chance to win the match. Just wanna point that out as it's happening. Oh. Um, what could go wrong? Well, that went wrong. Uh, okay, big day today.
16:43
First of all, all of your pre-flop bets are still active, every one of them? I think so. I mean, I got, let's see, Poland last in the group has cashed. Uh, Hungary could still advance as the third place team.
16:55
Slovenia could advance today. France-Austria dual forecast is in play, Germany title. And I will insist that the Lukaku golden boot is still in play.
17:04
Oh, he will in- Even though he hasn't scored yet [laughs] He will insist. All right, insist away.
17:08
All right, and then the others- 'Cause the leader, leader only has two goals so far, so I don't know if he's going to play in their next... Oh, he'll play in their next games. They need a result at least.
17:16
So if he gets a couple there, he's right there, and then he's got one, maybe two, three knockout games. So who knows? Okay, before we get to your picks then, explain to us, like, this is, this is the quirky part, right?
17:26
So you don't have a play in this game, I don't believe, but Slovakia-Romania is an example of a game- Yeah... where they both advance with a draw, you were saying. Hmm. Yeah, this is, it's, this is a bad format.
17:38
24 team tournaments where some of the third place teams advance because Slovakia-Romania, for example, play later after some groups are already done, so they have more information about what they need to do.
17:48
So we know both of them will advance if they draw today. And so the draw price is around even money right now. [laughs] Which is, you know, you almost never see anything below +200- Yeah...
17:59
in, you know, normal situations. So it's, it's even money.
18:02
This happened a couple years ago, or three years ago at Euros also, where it was about this and- Austria ended up winning, but by that point Ukraine knew a one goal loss was fine, and they just kind of putzed it around, which, you know, could happen here.
18:14
But it's just wild to see some of these prices because teams know what they need to do or don't need to do in some situations. Yeah, I'm not saying go play it, but it's just absurd to look at the odds.
18:24
Like, and you think that, like, your screen's broken or whatever because you're seeing even money on a draw. It's amazing for this specific kind of, uh, format. Uh- Right...
18:33
obviously motivation's abound here for different teams that are already in. Some teams are already out. Uh, and then we have England and Slovenia today. Uh, England has not looked great, but they're through, right?
18:46
Correct. They have advanced. We don't know in what position they'll advance. They want to win the group to get the most favorable round of 16 draw. So they're through, but we don't know where yet.
18:55
What are you doing with this match with England and Slovenia? Our second Slovenia reference of the segment. Right. So I'll start. I got a couple plays on this. One, I like the draw.
19:04
I played this at plus 400, and I saw some plus 450s this morning, so bad job by me getting a good price on that. Uh, here's the thing, England hasn't looked good. They're a low scoring team.
19:13
Slovenia needs a draw to advance, so yeah, they're gonna be motivated obviously in that sense. Uh, England is through. They would like to win.
19:24
In all likelihood, in order to win the group, it depends on the Denmark Serbia game as well. But England's just been so dire offensively, which makes no sense given all the attacking talent that they have.
19:34
And their last five Euro games have all been low scoring, two goals or fewer. So they're not gonna blow Slovenia out, I don't think.
19:41
And Slovenia is likely not gonna open up because even a one goal loss could get them through. So everyone's gonna try to keep this tight. So I like the draw at plus 400 or plus 450 you can get even better.
19:50
And you're also taking the under then? Yeah, same sort of reasoning. England doesn't know what to do with all its attacking talent. None of their last five Euro group games have had more than two goals.
20:01
A one goal win, like a one-nil England win isn't the worst thing for Slovenia. They'd be kind of bubblicious depending on what, uh, the other two groups do the next couple days.
20:11
But, you know, they definitely don't want to lose by two, so it's hard to imagine Slovenia ever really opening up unless they get down by a whole bunch of goals, in which case we're out anyway.
20:18
So yeah, I like the under two and a half at minus 110. Excellent use of bubblicious, by the way, applied- Thank you... to a bubble at a sporting event. Uh, were you a Bubblicious or a Bubble Yum kind of guy as a kid?
20:29
Uh, I was an Extra- Oh... guy. Extra. My parents had the sugar free, so Extra was the one in my house. Really? Your parents were sugar free for you? My God, it's child abuse for God's sakes. Not, not on the whole.
20:38
Ju- just for gum. Oh, just for gum. Just for gum. Just to be clear, not everything. I didn't want to get your parents in trouble. Uh, okay, and then nothing else today, right? We go to tomorrow. Right.
20:45
Portugal and Georgia. Yeah. Yeah, so this is... So Portugal has already won the group and clinched, so they don't have anything to play for in that sense.
20:54
But even Portugal's like second string, third string of attackers are way better than Georgia. Two goals better, I think. Uh, and Portugal just doesn't have an off switch.
21:03
You know, they can bring in like Diogo Jota, who started half the Premier League games for Liverpool, uh, this season.
21:08
So they've got plenty of talent, and they outscored opponents 36 to two in qualifying, so they're not afraid to run up the score, uh, if need be.
21:15
So I just think they kind of roll through Georgia doing what Portugal does. Again, they don't have a reason to win, which is why you can get a plus 110 on Portugal laying a goal and a half.
21:24
So there's that they're running against. And Georgia is still alive, but Portugal's just a lot better. They've got so much offensive talent that I like getting plus money on laying the goal and a half.
21:34
Who's winning this thing? I mean, Germany d- Germany's obviously the pick, I'm gonna say. They, they didn't look great. I feel like it's very wide open.
21:43
I kind of like Portugal, but also trusting in them and a Roberto Martinez team that, you know, has some questions defensively because they're an offense first. It's a little dangerous.
21:51
I feel like Portugal's looked the best. Uh, some people like Spain a lot. Uh, if I... And the problem is all three of those are gonna be on the same half of the bracket in all likelihood. Yeah.
22:00
So- The, the England Slovenia thing though, today, I understand your reasoning, but like shouldn't England try to win to avoid Germany in the next round? Yes. Is that part of it? Yeah. Yeah.
22:08
If they get the one seed, they will have a much better round of 16, a really whole path all the way to the final, uh, in theory than they would. They'd have France in at some point beforehand in all likelihood.
22:17
But- And the Y- and the US- They want to stay on that half... US and Copa America is exactly what you thought it is. We'll get to the quarters and then we'll get bounced. Do you still think that? What it looks like.
22:25
I mean, it was a very do what you have to do in the first game. They won two-nil, which like precisely met expectations, so they should beat Panama, uh, Thursday and then you'll get through and run into a better teams.
22:35
But, but you never know how it's gonna fall. They got a shot. Don't be anti-American, Paulie. Don't be that. Right. Oh, Paul Carr, everybody. Thank you, Paul. Appreciate it. Offner breaks back. Let's go.
22:45
Coming back, baseball next. Don't forget to check out our website, vsin.com. Best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state, betting tools, betting guides. It's all there on the front page today.
22:57
Oh, this is good. Steve Makinen on, uh, the MLB bullpen betting system that he's got. Update, uh, he's got an MLB bullpen betting system update yielding a massive week it says.
23:08
I will, I'll actually, uh, dive into that after the show. Uh, tennis predictions from our buddy Zach Cohen, who will join Drew and I for the, uh, the Beating the Book Tennis Pod on Thursday.
23:18
By the way, Sebastian Offner gets it done. If we can get Siniakava home, that would be great. Uh, also on the website, though, a whole bunch of football stuff. Matt Humans on college hoops.
23:28
And, uh, Zach actually looks ahead to the NBA championship odds next year. All of that at vsin.com. Check it out. So Wyatt Tom check in for Kelly Bitland. You doing okay, man? We haven't heard enough of you.
23:39
You know, just what was I on? Uh, you, you got me, you caught me, caught me, uh, not ready. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. Listen, uh, Wyatt was working at his family's hardware store this past week. Yes. In, uh- Wisconsin.
23:51
So- In Wisconsin. Yeah, I- Where in Wisconsin? Uh, Waukesha, Wisconsin, which is about, uh, 20 minutes to the west of Milwaukee. Okay.
23:59
And then he has another one in Delavan, which is like on the, um, Wisconsin Illinois border. Where did you grow up? Right here in Vegas. Oh, you grew up here? Oh, yeah. Born and raised. That's right. So you are a UNLV...
24:09
Wyatt, by the way, is not just some, uh, random guy that we, uh, picked up off the street. Wyatt does UNLV women's basketball play-by-play, right? Yep.
24:17
That, that is the, that is the big one, along with softball, volleyball, and men's and women's soccer. You do it all. I try to do it all. Try to stay busy. Dude, so your aspiration is to be a big time play-by-play guy?
24:26
Oh, yeah. Try to do it, you know, full time. You know, it, uh... I just enjoy it. I, I, I enjoy telling a story, uh, no matter where it is. And it's, it's, this has been a lot of fun.
24:36
You know, Gil, what- the thing that I really enjoy the most is when parents come up to me and go, "Hey, I'm so-and-so's daughter, son. I really enjoy listening to the games you guys m- you make it so much fun for us."
24:46
Oh, that's awesome. I just love it. Like, at, at that level, I, I know my audience is, it, it, it's very specific. People are tuning in for a reason.
24:53
Do you have a secret rivalry with Ben Wilson that we should know about? Never. Well, he's a fellow Wisconsin- That's curious...
24:57
well, I'm not a Wisconsinite, but he's a fellow Packer fan and Bucs fan, so we have a lot of love for each other. Okay, let's just try to, let's try to sow rivalry there. Uh, Ben, nicest guy in the world.
25:06
You, nicest guy in the world. May the both of you be spectacularly successful. And thanks for slumming with me this morning. I appreciate it. Hey, you know. Yeah.
25:13
Paul Spohrer has been, uh, doing that for the better part of a decade, more than a decade with me, both in, uh, radio and podcast form. Um, I've known him since he was, uh, I don't know, what, nine years old?
25:24
It's Paul Spohrer, everybody, @Spohrer on Twitter, works at FanGraphs. Um, Sleeper At The Bus is the name of the podcast, comes to us courtesy of Progressive Gaslight. How you doing, Paulie? I'm doing very well, Gil.
25:34
Thanks for having me on. Let's do this, uh, reverse. Let's, let's start with DFS. Can I throw you that curve ball? Have you, have you taken a look? No. No, haven't done any DFS? No. Why did you do that to me? I'm sorry.
25:43
[laughs] You give me all these little ones to run down. No, I really haven't looked at the board. I was focused on, uh, on all the ones that we're gonna run down today, so. Season long. Okay, let's do season long.
25:51
So Paul has, has grabbed the DraftKings app, and he has, he's grabbed it with both of his hands and he's like, "Oh, there's stuff here." Uh, how many bets do you think you would recommend on today's show, Paul?
26:02
What's coming up here in the next couple segments? I mean, I've got, I've got a lot. Okay. I've got a lot of interest here on different things, and of varying levels.
26:10
You know, I'm always down to point out, like, "Hey, this one isn't, uh, crazy hot. Uh, this is more of a, a smaller, smaller move I would make." Other words, I'm gonna be more aggressive on.
26:20
So, and there's gonna be a through line on a particular team that- Ooh... I've just had a tough time quitting, and now they're starting to show some signs. Okay.
26:27
Well, let's, uh, see he's taking a swig from his thermos, so he's ready to go. I don't know what's in there. He won't tell us. Water. Water. Oh. It's just water. Sure, water. Sure.
26:36
Uh, all right, start where you'd like to and we'll go from there. What, what's your first one? We'll, we'll go in the order that you listed them. Okay.
26:40
That's the order I went in there, starting with the team futures there. And on the World Series, you know, there's a few teams I do like. Um, in general, these are not my favorites to get that far ahead of it.
26:52
Um, I, I just, I'm gonna always be careful with this. But when I'm looking at it, you know, there's some teams that jump out. On the favorites end, I, I still think Baltimore's a bit underpriced at, at plus 850.
27:02
You know, they're, they're fifth on the board. I think they're better than the fifth best team. I think they're, um, probably around the second.
27:10
I, I don't know that I have any team definitively, unquestionably better than Baltimore either. I also believe that they're firmly going to make a, a strong move for pitching. They just have too much talent.
27:20
Uh, not too much. You never have too much talent. But they have so much overflowing talent that they can make a move similar to the Burns one, where it doesn't even really dent them.
27:29
And that's not to say that DL Hall and Joey Ortiz are not two nice pieces that Milwaukee got, and we've seen what Milwaukee's doing with Ortiz. Hall's hurt right now.
27:37
But I think the Orioles will make another big move, plus 850, they're fifth on the board there. Then you start to get in a little bit of, uh, you know, the, the deeper cuts there, and I'm gonna go with a Texas two-step.
27:47
And I'm, I'm not a homer. I do live in Texas, but I'm a Tigers fan for those that don't know. But I like both Texas ball clubs right now, Houston at plus 2200 and the Rangers at plus 7500.
27:57
Both teams have gone through some stuff this year and had some issues, and neither is, you know, fir- on firm ground right now. They're both sub 500. But I really like both those clubs.
28:08
Only the Mariners recently kind of ran away from them a little bit, but none of the other teams, obviously the Angels and the A's, they're not gonna do anything about it, take advantage of it.
28:16
But even the rest of the American League didn't really take full advantage and bury these two ball clubs, and I really like where they stand, and I think both will be aggressive at the deadline as well.
28:23
So Houston plus 2200, Texas plus 7500. I'm surprised they haven't changed. They've been hot of late, and that's the team that I'm gonna be going with throughout.
28:31
I like them for the league, uh, for the American League plus 3500, and for the division plus 750. I, I'm, I'm on Texas all the way.
28:39
What they had to do was survive to about this point, and now they're adding pieces almost weekly, right? We just saw Scherzer come back.
28:47
Um, you know, they, they'll be adding pieces just from their injuries, let alone if they go out and make moves, which I would believe that they will as the defending champs. They want to solidify that team.
28:57
So even though they haven't looked great this year, I've had a hard time ever really quitting Texas. So that's where I'm at on that. Do you wanna react to any of that or keep going? Um, just making sure we understand.
29:06
So for Texas, you're doing it throughout. You're doing division- All the way... league and World Series. Correct. But for the Astros and the Orioles, you sticking only to World Series as good plays, you think?
29:17
And I like, I like World Series for both of them. And then I also, I don't mind the league on Houston. Now, they're plus 1100 to Texas's plus 3500.
29:24
So it's obviously much better to go on Texas there from a, from a, uh, numbers standpoint of what you're getting. But I do like this Houston club, too. I like both Texas teams.
29:32
I understand if you don't wanna stack on both there and, you know, you're gonna have conflicting bets at some point.
29:37
But if you don't have a dead lean to one or the other and you kind of wanna spread it out a little bit, I think both clubs, they're just not ready to...
29:45
I mean, Houston's not ready to be buried the way people want them to be buried. Yeah. And Texas, of course, is just kind of getting going.
29:51
So I think that they sputtered a little bit out of the gate, which could have been expected with the injuries that they were suffering.
29:56
And now as they add these pieces back, plus any moves they make, plus Wyatt Langford maybe starting to turn a corner. We'll see if they can get Evan Carter back healthy and going well.
30:05
I like that Texas ball club quite a bit. Yeah, I don't know if you know this, Paul, but I got Houston 25 to 1 most wins in June. I'm pumped. They're alive. I, I love it. They're live. I love it. I th- Let's get there.
30:14
They're absolutely playing some good ball right now. Then as we continue on, so nothing else on the World Series. League in the NL None of them jump out, 'cause a lot of them, those favorites are up there.
30:24
They make sense. I get it. Those are probably the, the plays that you really wanna focus on.
30:28
But if I wanna get a little bit wild with it, you know that dating back, what now, three, four years at this point, I can't quit this Padres team. They're such a talented bunch.
30:38
They're frustrating as can be, and I know Tatis just got hurt, but they're playing better of late. I think Darvish is back today. Uh, they're also a team that has shown that they're not going to let this window close.
30:48
You know, they got five, six more trades in the barrel with the White Sox, I'm sure of it. They can figure out a few more things to pillage from that ball club. Um, I'm only partially joking.
30:56
I wouldn't be surprised if they went back to them to try to get Erick Fedde and/or Garrett Crochet. So I like that Padres team as a, a live underdog in the NL. And then for divisions, KC is interesting in the AL Central.
31:09
I know that they've fallen on some hard times recently. I think they're out of the playoff picture for the first time since, like, April 5th or something, something around there. It's been a while.
31:16
But they're still 42 and 37. They're a good ball club. Plus 750, I think that's just gonna be a really hard fought division. I respect what the Guardians are doing.
31:23
I'm not off of them completely, but I think the Royals are gonna push. [coughs] Excuse me. And then the Pirates, uh, they're a big-time dog, plus 3,000 right now, but they have two aces, Gil.
31:32
And I know Jared Jones isn't pitching at his best right now, but I think that's more of just kind of rookie settling than him being figured out. In fact, he bounced back with a big gem against the Rockies recently.
31:42
And I don't... Or excuse me, against the Rays after getting hit by the Rockies in Colorado, which even though the Rockies stink this year, I'm never gonna hold it too hard against the guy that gets beat up in Colorado.
31:51
So they've got two aces. If they can figure out any hitting in Pittsburgh, I don't see any reason that they can't storm the castle and take down this Brewers club.
31:59
A Brewers club I like, too, so again, this isn't anti-Brewers so much as it is pro-Pirates. So that's where I'm at on the teams there.
32:07
Um, like I said, add the Padres to the league with the two Texas teams, and then the division teams of interest are the Rangers, Royals, and then the Pirates as a super long shot.
32:17
All right, the Pirates to win the AL, s- excuse me, to win the NL Central. Um, did they just take that down? No, there it is. Pirates to win the NL Central. Keep in mind, the Pirates are eight and a half back.
32:27
They're four games below 500. Yeah. They are 30 to 1 right now to win that division. Um, and then some of your other bets we were talking about with the Rangers, we, uh, we pointed out with the Rangers every which way.
32:40
Uh, Rangers to win the American League West are plus 750. Astros, by the way, are, are an anemic plus 240, so you're not getting much of a number there. But with the Rangers- No, th- th- they've been adjusted to.
32:51
I'm surprised the Rangers haven't really been yet- Yeah... with their recent play. Rangers, uh, to win the, the American League 35 to 1, and to win the whole dillio, to be back-to-back champs, the Rangers are 75 to 1.
33:04
Some of the numbers that we're talking about. That Pirates one is a very interesting call in what is a very fluid NL Central with the Cardinals having a great month of baseball. Absolutely.
33:14
And the team that I thought was gonna be really good, the Cubs, kind of floundering, kind of just meh at this point. Mm-hmm. Uh, Paul's got a lot more season-long baseball thoughts beyond the markets we just discussed.
33:25
That's on the other side. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:28
[upbeat rock music] Back at MarcaDada, The Barrage, in Spanish, right here at the D, downtown Las Vegas.
33:46
Gil Alexander and Wyatt Tomcheck. Don't forget, release day, NFL guide release day, Thursday. Sign up now, vsin.com/subscribe. We're pumped. We're pumped for this.
33:55
Uh, we are, uh, I don't know, what would you say this is, 20 feet away, 25 feet away from a, uh, Sigma Derby machine here at the D.
34:01
And, uh, there are five people gathered around, and this one lady was just going ballistic, hoping number three would get there.
34:07
And, uh, we were waiting, Wyatt and I, for the result of this, and the only way, 'cause we had our headphones on, we didn't know what happened, but the only way we know is that she went...
34:13
[clicks tongue] [laughs] So I guess she lost. Doggone it. Have you ever played it before? Hell no. No? Okay. You? No. I mean... It's fun for the whole family, I'm told. You know?
34:26
We, uh, Kelly has a story that when he, he saw them cleaning the insides, the innards- Uh-huh...
34:31
of the, uh, Sigma Derby machine, and Kelly wanted to take a photo of it, and the guy who was cleaning it was like, "Oh, no, you can't take a photo." Oh, really? Oh, yeah, it's like a big thing. Wow.
34:42
'Cause that's- Yeah... w- the story is that this is the only one left in the state of Nevada, right? I think the only of the originals. Of the originals? Okay, yeah. Yes.
34:48
There's a whole bunch of, you know, knock-off- The, yeah... later generation ones, but of the originals, I think that's the only one.
34:54
Oh, I wanna say Fortenbaugh, Joe Fortenbaugh might have purchased one of the originals and has it as his [laughs] I think. I don't know if it's true. I have to ask him. Does he have one at his house?
35:02
Like, I'm sure his wife is like, "Joe, can you move the Sigma Derby machine out of here? [laughs] We have kids." Oh, I would love to come over to the house. "What are you doing?" "Oh, playing Sigma Derby."
35:10
Just playing Sigma Derby. Paul Sporc kind enough to join us for a second segment. Um, okay, good flavor there for all of your team bets, again, uh, courtesy of the Progressive guest line he comes to us.
35:20
You liked a lot of the, uh, player stuff as well. Yeah, I got, I got some player stuff that is, uh, uh, of note, and you know, I love doing this.
35:28
We talk about these every year really that we've been doing stuff, and the evolution of the awards over the season is always fascinating, right?
35:36
We start talking about MVP and Cy Young in April, which, let's be honest, is kind of stupid. Yeah. But it's fun, right? It's why, it's why we, it's why we enjoy sports.
35:43
Like, "Oh my God, what if this guy with this hot April ends up being the guy?" And we know a lot of it's narrative driven, too. Uh, maybe it shouldn't be as much.
35:51
Like, you know, some of the April, May stuff can be forgotten for a great story down the stretch. But I got some guys of, of note here, and we'll start with the MVP, and I like a couple of the, the longer shot guys here.
36:01
And one of my favorites is, is on the O's, uh, with Adley Rutschman. And you know, that's a guy that, like, is team leader through and through. Calling him a switch hitting Posey since he's come up.
36:13
Like, the, the second, h- honestly, even before that. At Oregon State, I was like, "Oh, this guy is just like switch-hitting Posey."
36:19
Has everything and doesn't have a super, super st- standout skill when it comes to his offense, like one thing that carries him. Just does everything very well. Great catcher, team leader. The narrative is there.
36:29
The Orioles, they're on the rise. The s- the stats are there too. You need the stats to go with it, but everything's going well for Adley Rutschman. I think he could have a huge summer, put himself in that MVP candidacy.
36:40
Uh, I like him at 80, 80 to 1. Uh, similarly though, Jordan Alvarez. You know, another great player. Now, it's a little bit tougher for him as essentially a DH, but he is such an amazing hitter.
36:51
I mean, this guy has, you know, 15 homers in his back pocket any given month, right? When he's, when he's dialed in- Yep... you're not gonna be surprised if he's dropping double digit homers.
37:00
So I think, uh, Alvarez at 80 to 1 as well is interesting for the MVP. Paul- So those are my two MVPs. Again, do you want me to go through them all or stop anytime? Paul, yeah.
37:07
You know, I was just gonna say, Paul said, uh, Yor- he meant Yordan Alvarez. It sort of sounded like Jordan Alvarez. Some people are gonna be like- I said Jordan. Yeah, yeah. I'm sorry.
37:14
That is actually how it's pronounced, but- Yeah... I know everyone calls him Yordan- I just didn't want-... so I will go with that... I just didn't want people to be confused. You know? Yeah. That's fair. Yeah.
37:21
That's fair. But his actual name is Jordan. Just, just so we're clear, but- Okay... he let, he let everyone call him Yordan.
37:28
But anyway, that is who I'm talking about, and they're both at 80 to 1 there, Adley and, uh, Alvarez. Actually it is... I'm not seeing Adley on the board that's being listed there. But what I, what I saw, he was- Yeah.
37:37
Adley, Adley's eight, 80 to 1. He's right there. Okay. Two below Yordan. Yep. Oh, yeah. Right, right that, right that. Yeah. Sorry. Okay. So now going to the Cy Young, I got a, a few candidates I like.
37:44
Two in the NL, one in the American League. And again, I think this is even more wide open than the MVP stuff.
37:48
You can, you can really turn your M- your Cy Young candidacy with like an amazing month because it can be so high impact with five, six starts. Um, and it can really, uh, kind of pivot you.
37:59
And I think one team that you kind of casually mentioned coming out of the, uh, or going into the break last time was the Cardinals. Their ace is back and looking amazing.
38:08
Sonny Gray missed some time at the beginning of the year, but he has not missed a beat since returning. 2.81 ERA, 0.95 whip. Just an excellent pitcher. Um, you know, reached 32 starts last year.
38:18
Might f- will fall a bit short of that this year 'cause of some of the time missed, but we know that you don't have to be putting up big 200 plus inning type seasons anymore.
38:25
If you've got the skills, in 180 something innings, that can get it done. Uh, he's interesting at 16 to 1. A little bit deeper though, Aaron Nola, 35 to 1.
38:35
I know Zach Wheeler gets the, uh, gets more of the headlines over there, and I totally get it. He is the true ace and, uh, you know, Nola is kind of his Robin.
38:43
But sometimes Robin gets a Cy Young, and I wouldn't be surprised if he goes on a run. Now, we know he can have these blowup starts.
38:49
What Nola's gonna have to do over the summer is avoid those dotted, you know, six earned runs, seven earned run disasters that seem to always mix in, uh, uh, over the course of his seasons.
39:00
Once every 10 starts, but it can erase three or four goodies. He just got clobbered in Boston recently for eight earnings.
39:06
That's gotta be the last one of those for Nola to do it, but he's got the skills, he's got the talent, he's got the, uh, reputation of being a great starter as well.
39:14
And then in the American League, my guy, uh, was the guy I picked coming into the year. I'm sticking with him. It's another Seattle guy. I was on the Luis Castillo train last year.
39:22
This year I've pivoted to George Kirby, and I realize that he's a bit behind Logan Gilbert right now.
39:27
Uh, and I think they're both very similar, but I'm just gonna take the guy at a better price because I, I think Kirby's every bit as good as Gilbert.
39:33
I love Gilbert as well, but I think Kirby's best pitching could be ahead of him, and he can make a big run, especially if Seattle ends up winning that AL West.
39:39
So those are my Cy Youngs, Sonny Gray, Aaron Nola, and, uh, George Kirby at 50 to 1. Paul, I have a question for you. Obviously the most fa- Yes... fascinating pitcher in all of baseball is Paul Skeens. Correct.
39:50
Is there a chance that he can win the NL Cy Young, or you think that they're just gonna give him the NL Rookie of the Year?
39:56
They will probably give him the Rookie of the Year to kind of satiate, uh, you know, g- giving him the, uh, Cy Young. But there is a world where he just kind of deserves it.
40:04
And, and if they really don't put any major restrictions on him, and I'm not sure that they should.
40:09
If they're contending, if they can actually get themselves back into full contention, where pushing Paul Skeens out there six, seven innings past maybe a deadl- uh, uh, a limit that they had originally wanted in the sake of chasing playoffs would make sense, then yes, I think he could push all the way into it.
40:25
It will be tough, and they will have the Rookie of the Year to kind of give him something, and we've seen that before, but I don't rule it out, and he is interesting.
40:32
He's too short of a shot for Rookie of the Year, but if you really wanna get in on some Skeens action, I think that's where you would go is, is jump into the, uh, Cy Young pool and see if you, you can get a little, uh, decent number there and just hope that they don't shut him down at all.
40:45
Also, check on, uh, whether Robin from Batman and Robin ever won a Cy Young, 'cause I'm pretty sure Paul said he did. I'm pretty sure that's what happened. I think he did. Yeah. I think he did.
40:52
Uh, was that it for the awards, or was there anything else you wanted to... That's it? No, I got more. How much time I got? I can go quick if I need to. You got, you got three minutes. You got time. Go ahead. All right.
40:58
So Rookie of the Year, um, you know, I mentioned Paul Skeens. So you're going super long shots the rest of the way here.
41:04
But there is a world where they shut him down, you know, overly quick and they play it too, too tight on him, or they just completely fall out of contention, so they want to shut him down and open up the door.
41:14
It's possible. Again, Skeens is the favorite. We're going quarter unit, half unit type stuff here. But I like Mason Wynn a little bit more. St. Louis love here, uh, with some awards. Mason Wynn is awesome.
41:27
True legit shortstop, meaning he can pick it, play the defense brilliantly. Some of his throws are unbelievable. But also having a good hitting season so far. 298, 341, 433 on the slash line. Four homers, eight steals.
41:38
So, you know, throw, throws in some of the fantasy categories, if you will, which do play in MVP votes.
41:43
So if he can put up a nice double double, which is at least 10 homers and steals with a great 300, uh, 300 or so batting average and a ton of war from defense and base running, if Skeens opens the door, I think somebody like Mason Wynn could sneak in.
41:56
But then the American League as more of a legitimate bet as opposed to a long shot bet- I like David Hamilton. Now, a little bit of bias. He's a Longhorn. I'm a, I'm a Longhorn myself. Um, and I love Luis Hill.
42:08
He too would have to kind of open the door, so I guess it is a little bit more long shotty than, than I originally said there. But I love what David Hamilton's doing. And, you know, the Red Sox are in this right now.
42:17
They're 42 and 36. David Hamilton could be a big part of any sort of playoff run that they might make. He's playing some decent enough defense to stick at short.
42:25
He's been a stolen base god with 21 on 22 attempts, hitting 282, and has a little bit of punch. Already five homers in 54 games. So David Hamilton at 25 to one for the AL Rookie of the Year is very interesting.
42:36
Do you have any thoughts on those two, uh, rookies of the year? Well, no, I'm just gonna say Mason Wynn also 25 to one, uh, and David Hamilton 25 to one in their respective, uh, award categories. Uh- Yes... 90 seconds.
42:46
You got more. All right. Juan Soto over 35 and a half homers. I just love Juan Soto. He's a god. Luis Hill over 172, uh, point five strikeouts. They said that they're not gonna limit him.
42:57
And so if they're not gonna limit him and let him pitch all year, there's a great shot for him to get that. Now, that is the short shot to bet the over, but I do like him and I, I, I love everything Luis Hill is doing.
43:05
Uh, home run leader long shot, Juan Soto 80 to one. Again, I just love Juan Soto. I think he's a god. Number one seed, Baltimore Orioles plus their, uh, what is it? Plus, like, three 10 or something.
43:15
It's not a great number, but it, it... I'm looking for something of a long shot there o- outside of, like, the Dodgers and, uh, I forget who the, who the AL, uh, top dog w- uh, the Yankees obviously.
43:25
And then, uh, World Series division winner, AL West. Uh, I, I just, I like the two Texas teams and Seattle. If they can get at least two teams in, I like my chances there. Orioles plus 310 to be the number one seed.
43:39
Correct. By the way, DraftKings only has the number one seed listed right now, but oftentimes they will pop up different seeds like two through six. Oftentimes four, five, six can provide a lot of great betting value.
43:50
That would be more fun. Yes. Yeah, that would be much more fun.
43:52
It can also get you messed up, 'cause I know Will Hill and I were talking about the Mets the other day, and he was like, "Should I take the Mets number six seed?"
43:57
And I was like, "Eh, just take them to make the playoffs," 'cause if they end up four or five, you'll get, like, super- You'll be so upset... upset at yourself. Yeah. So, but, but they are interesting markets as well.
44:05
Paul, well done. Two solid segments of bets. My man, appreciate it. Thanks. Paul- Thank you so much for having me on. I'll talk to y'all next week. You too. Paul Spohrer @spohrer on Twitter. We've done all we can do.
44:17
Enjoy, from Visa and the Sports Betting Network.
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