Search
Login
Sign Up
Jun 26, 2024
A Numbers Game | June 26, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | June 26, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:49
1×
Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. So one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSIN.
0:08
Hour number two of a numbers game at VSIN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV.
0:14
However you're taking us in, we are grateful to you for allowing us, uh, allowing us to be part of your morning. Uh, never take that for granted. It's Gil Alexander. It's Wyatt Tomchek in for Kelly Bidlin.
0:24
Uh, Wyatt hanging out with us all week here on the show, and doing a damn fine job of it, I should say. That, that compliment only cost me 20 bucks. That's right, 20 United States dollars. Uh, still to come this hour.
0:35
[laughs] I was gonna say, we need Matt Brown for the, uh, conversion. Joe Sheehan on baseball. Joe Sheehan joining us today. Always look, uh, forward to talking to Joe. Uh, Jason Weingart will be here.
0:44
Uh, we'll go through the core four. Uh, Luke Swain calls them the core four NBA mock drafters. We will go through their final mock drafts, those four guys, uh, and then I will tell you what I bet.
0:56
One of the, uh, and, and it's a long... One of them is a long shot based on one of these mock drafts, uh, partially as well. So, uh, we'll get into that. First, we get tweets. I haven't read any tweets today, have I?
1:06
I maybe did earlier. Uh, we- Second segment. Second segment. We get tweets at Beginning of Book.
1:10
This is from, uh, SoCal Fantasy, "I'm literally reading JBT's article on VSIN, and he has," he said ZR, but then he changed himself to Sar number one with a bet. Did he just change it on air?
1:21
Well, I think his m- uh, I don't, I'm not sure what you're saying, but I think his mock, what are his... Who does he have on his mock, his last mock? His mock he had, uh- Reese Shane number one, right? Yes. Yeah.
1:30
That doesn't mean he bet that. He bet Clingan number one- Yeah... some time ago. I, I hope that helps. Maybe it doesn't.
1:36
Manny Davis, "Any books even thinking about offering NHL draft bets out there Friday night at The Sphere?" By the way, how about that? At The Sphere, the NHL draft.
1:46
Um, I don't know, but I would follow Luke Swain at Vegas Refund because he is an NHL draft guy as well, so wherever it is, he'll be able to point you to it.
1:56
Uh, Larry Fresh, "Man, oh man, Will Hill with the Wire reference. RIP to both Prop Joe and Omar." Yeah, man, both, both of them. Greatest show ever? To me, greatest show ever.
2:06
That was my, that was my COVID binge, uh, uh, during that time. It- I think I watched The Wire within, like, a month. I was hooked on it. It's fantastic.
2:15
You, what did you say your favorite season wa- I remember we had a conversation about it with season four. Season one and season four. Season, yep. Season four is really, I, I really enjoyed.
2:21
Season four, which is in the schools. Yeah. You forget you're watching a television show. You're like, "Oh my, oh my God. This is great." Uh, The Numbers Guys, "Now, was Prop Joe from Balmer or Baltimore?
2:33
I can never keep straight who's from which." [laughs] He's from Balmer, just in case you were wondering. Uh, he's, he's from Maryland is what you really should know, for those of us who grew up there.
2:42
Uh, Touchdown Jesus, "Waited overnight for your tennis pick to complete a three-leg parlay. Thank you, as always." Oh, Jay, Siniakova you're talking about. That was the one, yes- yesterday we went two and O in tennis.
2:51
Sadly, this morning, not so much. O and two in tennis. There is one more pick to come, and it is a big dog. Uh, again, vsin.com/picks. Every host, every guest, every sport for subscribers.
3:06
Uh, I took Yue Yue, uh, Yuan Yue, which is written reverse for us, Yue Yuan. That's Y-U-E Y-U-A-N. I took her at plus 193 against Daria Kasatkina. Um, plus 193 was the number last night.
3:22
Gonna check right now for you to see if that number is still available to us, or maybe you'll even have it at a, uh, at a better number than I got it at, and the answer to that question is, sorry, I wasn't prepared for that, for that question.
3:35
Uh, yes, she's plus 195, two pennies even better. So Yuan Yue is the, uh, last pick of the day, in case you're interested there.
3:42
And, uh, finally, this is from, doo-boo-doo-boo-doo, oh, Mike Boreal, and I don't know the answer to this question, Mike. He says, "Quick question, I have a winning ticket placed at the Borgata in Atlantic City.
3:52
Can I cash this ticket at an MGM book in Vegas? Don't wanna risk mailing it in. Thanks, and love listening to you on VSIN." Um, oh, he's asking Crack this.
4:04
Well, Crack is not here today, so maybe Crack would know the answer. I know you can MGM to MGM property here in Vegas, but I don't know that you can jurisdiction to jurisdiction. I'll try to get the answer for you.
4:13
Siya Najad, kind enough to join us for a second segment, this time to talk some NFL. He's a host at the Monumental Sports Network.
4:19
You can follow him on Twitter again at Siya Najad, S-I-A N-E-J-A-D, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
4:24
Siya, um, give me your most, what you would consider to be your most outlying NFL opinion heading into next year, one that is not a conventional thought by many. Okay, uh, I've got a few actually.
4:39
Uh, but before I get there, can I just say I'm a little embarrassed. I watch a lot of these television series.
4:44
For some reason, I've never gotten around to watching The Wire, and I understand how, like, that's a really bad thing. I've watched, like, all the other ones. I haven't gotten around to The Wire.
4:52
I will watch it, uh, especially ba- backed on your and Wyatt's, uh, endorsement. Okay, here are the outliers as you sit there in shock, gentlemen. First of all, we talked about the Eagles last segment.
5:03
I, I do like them at plus 105. I don't think I'm, I'm, you know, breaking any news there. I took the Jets at plus 240 to win the AFC East when it was plus 240, which is kind of when the division markets came out.
5:13
Uh, it's about plus 190, pretty much in that range everywhere. Uh, I think that's one. Falcons minus 115 to win the NFC South. I haven't bet that. I, I do kind of like it. I'll say this. Here's an outlier one.
5:26
Um, Browns to make the playoffs at plus 150. I, I think that's an outlier in the sense that, you know, you're getting plus money.
5:31
I do like the Browns, and I do like, uh, Deshaun Watson's ability to maybe continue to recover from what was an abnormal, uh, shoulder injury.
5:39
In the AFC South, I know we are saying it's the Texans, and I agree that the Texans are, are improved on both sides of the ball, an up-and-coming team.
5:49
I think the Colts are live to win that division at plus 310, and so that's something, that's not anything I've bet quite yet, but that's something I'm probably going to bet because I think that division is up for grabs a little bit more than people think, and I think the w- the style of play that the Colts are likely to pa- play with Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor, uh, could stymie, uh, the Texans a bit if they were, if they were to have to meet, uh, like the two times that they meet, if they were to have to meet and that decides the division, I like the Colts' chances.
6:17
I was saying earlier on the show in our VSIN betting guide, we have, uh, 21, uh- Folks here at VSiN and, uh, and, and VSiN adjacent, if you will, picking, um, you know, divisions, wild cards, conference, and Super Bowl, in addition to awards.
6:31
Um, one of the things with the wild cards, 63 then aggregate picks in the NFC and 63 in the AFC among those 21 people for the three wild cards.
6:41
In the AFC, the AFC, the American Football Conference, there are absolutely no surprises in that group of 63.
6:47
So, you know, if you had one team winning the division, the other one is just sort of defaulted to a, uh, to a wild card. So there's no real pick.
6:53
There's no real team that you're like, "Wow, I can't believe that person picked this." In the NFC though, there are. I was talking about this earlier.
6:58
There are four teams that sort of snuck their way in, that got a total of six of those 63 votes. Uh, one got two, another got two, and then the two others got one vote each.
7:10
I'm curious, and by the way, uh, you guessed one of them. Wyatt guessed that the Chicago Bears were one of those four, and he's right. Chicago got two wild card votes.
7:18
Uh, I'll let people see the, the other three in the guide. Do you have an NFC team that you feel could sneak into one of the three wild cards? Because after all, that conference is not nearly as top-heavy. Yeah.
7:30
I'm looking at the conference winners now. I mean, you know, it's funny. Like I, I wanna say Washington, because I do think they have a little bit more upside than people think.
7:37
I think Seattle is interesting, because I think most people are down on Seattle. I mean, I kind of am, too. Uh, but I do... Like coaching changes.
7:45
They, they, they did some stuff with the draft and in free agency, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. They've got a lot of talent, uh, on the offensive end still.
7:52
Geno Smith I still think is an, uh, uh, at least an average quarterback in the NFL.
7:57
I think the Seahawks would probably be my team to sneak in, 'cause as it stands now, it doesn't look like they're a team that would kinda slot in there.
8:04
Outside of that, I'd be willing to take a shot on Washington as, as a, you know, we're talking a sprinkle bet here, not a, not a- Yeah... huge conviction play.
8:11
Well, I should mention that one of those, one of those outliers was Washington. They got one vote. I wonder who that could've been. Um, here's, here's my take on Washington. I'm curious, 'cause you're right there.
8:23
Mm-hmm. Um, and I'm curious if, what your thought is, because I do believe of all those teams in that division, they have the, the widest variance of outcome. And I- Yes... I, I think they've made a lot of...
8:33
Like draft day was great. They, they did really well in the draft. But there's always a but with them. Um, I don't really know if they improved on their most... Like the secondary is still a little thin. Mm.
8:48
Left tackle is... Like I just don't know if they did enough. I'm curious what your prognosis is on this team.
8:56
Well, it's interesting, because you previously said, you know, a lot of patchwork in the, in the coaching- Yeah... department, you know, with this team. But there's also a lot of patchwork in, on both sides of the ball.
9:05
I mean, guys like Austin Ekeler or Bobby Wagner. And, and I, I, I...
9:08
While patchwork does have a negative connotation, I do think for a year, or potentially two years, those guys, not just in the locker room, but on the field, could be like a huge presence for this team.
9:18
But the reason, part of the reason they have such variance outside of just coaching and executive changes is Jayden Daniels. I mean, we- Yeah... th- th- this is just one of those things. Like how good is Jayden Daniels?
9:27
I've said it on this show before. I think he was the best, uh, college quarterback in the draft, ahead of Caleb Williams. I was saying that when he was at LSU, like during the season. I just really like Jayden Daniels.
9:38
And if he is the guy that I think he is, he makes all of these receivers better. He makes this offensive line better. He makes the running backs better. And, and I think it's, it, it could be a very competitive offense.
9:48
The defense has holes, but again, to your point, the NFC isn't super strong once you get past basically four teams, which is why it's Green Bay Packers, of course the San Francisco 49ers, the Detroit Lions, maybe the Philadelphia Eagles.
10:01
After that, it becomes a conversation for pretty much everybody else. We can talk about Atlanta, we can talk about some of those teams.
10:06
But you put Washington basically, th- like there's one group of teams that I just mentioned, the four. Then there's a group of like four or five that like are solid teams that should maybe make the playoffs.
10:16
I'm talking about the Rams, you know, teams like that. And then there's Washington. So I mean, we know in the NFL how this works.
10:22
Some teams really surprise, and we have the wild card because we have a guy at the quarterback position that can change the franchise. The question is, does he change it in year one?
10:30
Probably not, but that doesn't mean that definitely not. You know what I mean? Like this is a guy who can change fortunes for sure. Yeah.
10:36
And all the early returns are that he's great in, uh, in camp, um, what they've, what they've had of him. Uh, I, again, I just hope they don't get him killed. I really do. Like they- Yeah...
10:46
I, I already have RG3 nightmares in my head. Me too. Right? Like, you know, it's like, okay, just protect the guy. Um, but uh, all the early returns are great. So bottom line then, uh, who's in your Super Bowl, Si?
10:57
I know it's a question we, we're too cool to ask on this, uh, uh, these days, but I'd like to ask it of you. Yeah. I think Kansas City on the AFC side. And I, I might even do some exactas here just for fun.
11:08
Uh, there's three teams I'm thinking of. San Francisco, but I, the thing about San Francisco is they could've very easily lost to Detroit and Green Bay. Um, I like a Kansas City, Green Bay Super Bowl.
11:18
I like a Kansas City, Detroit Super Bowl.
11:20
I think that's where like if, like if you're, if you're talking about maybe a slightly longer odds, whether it's an exacta or just picking an NFC team, those are the two teams I'd be focused upon.
11:28
Wyatt, I think he said Green Bay. Pretty sure he just said that. We need to have Si on more often. Wow. There's a guest right there. Thank you, Si. Uh, appreciate it. Great seeing you. Good luck. Thanks, gentlemen.
11:37
Si Najaadi, everybody- Appreciate it... with his, uh, golf and NFL thoughts. @SiNajaadi once again on Twitter. We'll come back. Joe Sheehan joins us to, uh, discuss the baseball season. That's next.
11:48
Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:50
[upbeat rock music] A numbers- VSiN, the sports betting network VSiN's NFL betting guide comes out tomorrow, so there's never been a better time to become a VSiN Pro subscriber.
12:10
I keep telling you. Our all new NFL betting guide is your secret weapon for the upcoming season, with in-depth profiles of every team, advanced stats, proven betting systems, betting trends.
12:18
You'll have all the tools you need to bet this season smarter. Plus, our experts share their top bets on season win totals, futures, and props, giving you the insights you need to get ahead of the action.
12:26
And to get the guide, you gotta be a VSiN Pro subscriber. For a limited time, get an annual subscription to VSiN Pro at an unbeatable price.
12:32
Normally $240 a year, you can subscribe now for just $199 with promo code ANG, plus we'll throw in an extra month for free.
12:40
That's 13 months of VSiN Pro access to everything we do, including our daily best bets, 24/7 video, premium analysis, exclusive betting splits, data, and all our special edition betting guides to keep you betting smarter all year long.
12:50
Do not miss out on our all-new NFL betting guide tomorrow, and this incredible offer. Visit vsin.com/subscribe right now. Use promo code ANG. That is ANG, the show with the most expensive desk in all America.
13:04
ANG, to get 13 months of VSiN Pro for just $199. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. You're referring to the, uh, shield that we work with- Yes... here at the D.
13:14
I was trying to think of the, um, the, you know, shape for this, but I was kind of like, "Eh, you know, we're just gonna go with desk." Uh, they're showing Super Bowl VI, uh, behind you on the TV screen, uh, Wyatt.
13:25
Um, I'll tell you what, I will take the Cow- it's 10 to nothing right now. Um, I will take the Cowboys, uh, on the live line.
13:32
I like how both you asked, you, you were telling both me and Will Hill about it, and it was like, and we're like, "Oh, this is the one where the Cowboys lost, but they got the, uh, Super Bowl MVP." Nope. Nope.
13:41
That is Super Bowl V. That is Super Bowl V, yeah. That's the one the Colts won with a last second field goal.
13:45
These are all before our time, by the way, but I, if for, for those who grew up, like, in Super Bowl lore, Colts won that, uh, Baltimore Colts won that at the buzzer, if you will, and Chuck Howley got the MVP for that.
13:55
That w- yeah, that was the, the previous year. Um- You think you'll ever see that again? Like, you know, like we were talking about with Connor McDavid.
14:02
Do you think you could ever see anybody in the NFL win the MVP on a losing team?
14:06
Uh, you never want to say never, but man, I think we all get that it would have to take a unbelievable set of circumstances for that to happen. But it's happened recently. Like, it's happened a few times. Mm-hmm.
14:16
So it's not that crazy for it to happen in one game. Um, we've seen it a few times in our lifetime, you know, in the last 25 years. So it can, it can happen in a one-game situation, for sure.
14:27
Uh, Joe Sheehan is kind enough to join us right now, and it's been a while since we got to talk to him. He is the author of the Joe Sheehan Newsletter.
14:33
You can follow him on Twitter at joe_sheehan, also at joesheehan.com. It's Joe Sheehan, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive guest line. How you doing, Joe? Good, Joe. What's going on, man? Man, I'm good.
14:45
I have so enjoyed this baseball season. Uh, Bill Adair, our c- our COO and founder of VSiN, he, uh, he was sending out a poll of folks yesterday, like, "What are you, what's everybody watching tonight?"
14:55
'Cause it was a night where there was no more hockey, no more basketball, and I was like, "Dude, I'm watching every baseball," because I got a, I got a Houston Astros most wins in June bet.
15:02
I'm following them and every team they're chasing. I, I think this has been a great baseball season thus far. You? I, I think the injuries have, uh, certainly taken some of the pep out of it.
15:11
A lot of the stars from last year have been hurt, uh, particularly on the pitching side. Cole, Strider, guys like that. Uh, we just lost Mookie Betts the other day.
15:19
But at the same time, you have this influx of new young talent. Talk about the pitchers on the Pirates like Gerrit Jones and Paul Skenes getting fans in fairly new places excited about the game.
15:28
So I think it's a mixed bag. The, the races for a while looked like they weren't going to be very impressive.
15:33
We've seen some of the gaps get closed here in the last week, so hopefully we'll get some good divisional races to go with what looked like fairly chaotic wild card races. Yeah. What about Gerrit Cole? You bring him up.
15:43
Yesterday, he was absolutely shelled by the New York Mets, and of course, the Yankees, uh, for most of this season were saying, "Look how good we are, and Gerrit Cole is about to, uh, to show up."
15:52
But yesterday, uh, four innings against the Metropolitans, gave up six earned runs on seven hits, uh, including a series of home runs. Should the Yankees be worried, or is this just a blip?
16:04
Yeah, I think Mark Vientos just hit another one. [laughs] Uh,
16:08
I, I- concern in the sense that you'd obviously rather see him go out there and, you know, throw five, six shut out innings the way Scherzer did his, uh, return the other day.
16:15
I will say that for Cole, everything has been pushed back a few months, so him showing up and only really topping out at 94, kind of sitting 92, 93, that could be the things that pitchers go through in spring training.
16:27
A dead arm, the velocity's just not there. So I'm not concerned yet, but after two so-so start...
16:35
Well, one so-so start and one bad one, they really do need to see him go out there and, results aside, get that velocity back up to 95, 96, 97. They need to see him be Gerrit Cole for a bit.
16:45
I will say that the Yankees have the luxury of playing the long game here. They're going to make the post season.
16:50
Uh, obviously, it's a seeding exercise between them and the Orioles, and I think that'll be a, a, an interesting race.
16:54
But they want Cole to make five starts in October, and the quality of his starts in July just won't matter all that much.
17:02
The Cleveland Guardians have the best record in baseball, and I still don't feel like, this is anecdotal to some degree, but I still feel like most people don't think that's sustainable. You know, could we- Yeah...
17:15
possibly be living in a world where it is? Let's put it that way.
17:18
We c- we could, but in kind of thinking about what you might want to talk about today, I went looking, and you can get the Guardians to miss the playoffs at 12 to 1, and I like that bet. Mm.
17:29
Uh, you can get the Twins to win the division, I think right now still at about five to one. I like that bet, because I just don't trust the Guardians' pitching. Now, the bullpen's been fantastic.
17:37
Steven Vogt's done a, a really good job in his rookie year. He looks like he's going to be manage- AL manager of the year.
17:42
But I look at that rotation and, you know, Tanner Bibee in his second full season, okay, maybe he's set to go 30 and 190.
17:49
Um, they're getting Gavin Williams back soon, so hopefully that, you know, kind of bolsters the rotation.
17:53
But, you know, Shane Bieber, they've been getting by with Logan Allen and, and Ta- who got knocked around yesterday, and Ben Lively, who's basically waiver bait.
18:01
Tristan McKenzie has been pitching through an elbow injury all year. So I just don't trust the pitching staff. And, you know, they won a game 10-8 yesterday. Uh, the offense has been the real surprise here.
18:10
Some of that is a park effect Progressive Field is no longer playing like a pitcher's park. They did some construction to, to the right field grandstand that has turned it into a hitter's park year over year.
18:21
But I still don't know how much I can trust particularly the bottom of that lineup. So if I had to pick one division leader right now, possibly fall out of the playoffs, it would be the Guardians.
18:29
That is interesting, 'cause the Guardians are 11 and 1 each way. They're 11 and 1 to win the World Series. They're 11 and 1 to miss the playoffs. So Joe advocating the latter there.
18:37
And I can't disagree with anything you've said. The starting pitching is, is absolutely, you know, uh, suboptimal. So, and I think it's below average.
18:45
But man, when they get a lead, that bullpen just locks it down, with the exception of April 30th, everybody, as we know too well. That was terrible. Yeah. Um- That was a monthly... Have you ever seen that online?
18:55
That was a wins for the month bet or something. Wins for the month. One out away, 65 to 1 odds, Joe. Yeah. Man, what a- It was the only bad outing Klaassen's had, Klaassen's had this year. [laughs] It was... Who was it?
19:07
Uh, was it, uh, G- oh, I forgot the name of the pitcher who gave up the homer, but it was just awful. Uh, okay. Um, let me ask you a different question.
19:16
So we have obviously the wildcard position right now, three wildcards, uh, uh, in each division. Right now Baltimore, Minnesota, and Boston inhabit the positions in the American League.
19:26
Uh, Kansas City's a half game out, and then you have a, a few teams, well, Tampa Bay and Houston, three and three and a half games out respectively. Obviously Houston trying to win that division as well.
19:35
In the National League, it is a scrum. Atlanta, St. Louis, and San Diego right now, but behind San Diego, within three and a half, four games, is the entire league except for the Marlins and the Rockies.
19:49
Is there a team that you feel has underperformed to the extent that you think they are live at their current odds to get to the postseason?
19:58
All the way down to 13th in that list, you'll find the Cubs, who lost a couple games in San Francisco this week. They had a terrible bullpen collapse on Monday. They're still just four games out of a playoff spot. Now,
20:11
there's some preseason bias baked into this. I had the Cubs winning 96 games. I thought they would be one of the two best teams in the league, and they've disappointed.
20:18
You look at the bullpen's been an absolute disaster. Bringing in Craig Counsell, I figured, hey, Counsell's gonna get the most out of his relievers. That hasn't happened. So that's been a real problem for them.
20:26
The offense hasn't been good, and a defense that was one of the best defenses in baseball last year has, collapse is a strong word, but it hasn't been nearly as good as it was last year.
20:35
So nothing's really gone right for them. But I look at the baseline talent level compared to the teams that are in this scrum, as you say, and I look at the likelihood that the Cubs will improve at the trade deadline.
20:46
They have significant, uh, pro- prospects that they can trade to get better. And you know, this team they have on the field right now, this is who they are. They're not building towards a future.
20:55
You look at Bellinger, you look at Suzuki, you look at, you know, Jason Tayon, they're, they're peaking now. So they're not going to want to take a year off.
21:03
All of that put together, I, I want to say I saw the Cubs, I think they're 11 and 1 to win the division, and they're still four to one, five to one to make the playoffs. I love taking them in this, in this spot. Wow.
21:13
Yeah, and I, I hope you're right because I, that was my favorite season win total of the entire off-season. Well, my favorite one was the Padres over. Thank you.
21:20
But the Cubs over was my second one, and you're right, I have been, like you, I have been disappointed, so I hope you are right about the turnaround here.
21:26
Uh, last thing, 'cause we only have 60 seconds, if not the Cubs, and maybe the Cubs are the answer, but if I had to, if I said, uh, give me a second team, what has been the most surprising first half of the season for you?
21:38
From what team? Either to the good or bad. I would say the Astros have been pretty disappointing. Um, I thought they'd continue extending this run of theirs, and over the last week they've played better.
21:47
They've gone from five to one, two to one to win the West. Uh, but you know, the injuries, they could say, "Okay, we're g- we're gonna get, uh, Urquidy back. We're gonna get Kristin Javier back."
21:55
They're both out for the season. They're waiting on Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers. I think they'll get better, but they did not have the depth to sustain all of the injuries that they suffered so far this year.
22:06
So they're still under 500, but I still like them in the second half, but definitely one of, probably the biggest disappointment for me out- outside of the Cubs. Joe, thank you so much.
22:13
I know, uh, you were saying off air you had to be out of the house, uh, for, for reasons, but we appreciate you making the time. Thanks, Gil. Take care, man. Joe Sheehan, everybody. The Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter.
22:22
You can follow him @Joe_Sheehan, joesheehan.com. That's S-H-E-E-H-A-N. Apologies for the audio there, but he has a remodel going on, so he was displaced momentarily from his home. Um,
22:36
getting back to that Bill 80 question, I am obsessed with this bet. Like, obsessed with it every night. It's so close again for the third straight month. Come on, Astros.
22:46
Gotta start with a win in your final four games against the Rockies this afternoon. Then a three-game set with the Mets. Jason Weingarten next.
22:53
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. I've said it once, I'll say it again. Check out our website, vsin.com.
23:09
Best bets, articles that are exclusive, odds by state, betting guides. It's all there on the website for free. On the front page, of course, was Zach Cohen on the NBA draft today.
23:21
Uh, Caitlin Clark versus Angel Reese, NBA Rookie of the Year, MVP odds update from Tyler Shoemaker. Uh, that's on there as well. Johnny Lazarus talking about 2025 NHL Stanley Cup Futures best bets. How about that?
23:33
You ready to make your futures bets for the Stanley Cup next year, Wyatt? Golden Knights, let's go. You gonna bet them? That was my, uh, that was my bet, uh, during, uh, last year, uh, last season.
23:43
I think I'd made it in, uh, January. Golden Knights. I was, I was looking really good those first two games and then it crashed there in game seven, and, uh, the pain of, of a season-long bet. Oh, yes.
23:55
Your, your such, your painful six-year history here in Las Vegas where you've won a cup and failed in the finals the second time. Seven years. Seven years, sorry. Exactly. Oh, that's really painful. Um, okay.
24:07
Jason Wi- [laughs] Jason Weingarten joins us. The Vegas sports fan is the most spoiled fan with that franchise.
24:13
Jason Weingarten joins us courtesy of the Progressive guest line at Spreadapedia from under a cloud of smoke somewhere in Southern Cali. What's happening, Jason? Good morning. How's it going? Doing very well.
24:23
You are not betting the NBA draft? Nothing to bet there, huh? I would bet, uh, the LeBron Jr over prop. That's about it, I, I think. I don't think anyone's gonna draft him.
24:34
Have, have you guys spoken about this at length yet? Oh, oh, the draft? Yes, and we're gonna speak about it more in the next segment. Yes, absolutely. I, I mean the, the LeBron Jr- Yeah... specifically. No.
24:44
Has this been a huge topic of conversation? It has been a huge topic generally speaking, but the guests that we've had, like Luke Swain, Vegas Refund, wanted no part of, of Bronny.
24:53
Um, and J- You can't make a real case for him, right? You can't make a real case for drafting him. It's gotta be over. Well, it, it, JVT said this morning, it's pretty much gonna be 55 with the Lakers.
25:05
Like, like it's hard to imagine him being drafted elsewhere. So the Lakers have the 55th pack, uh, 55th pick, so you would, you would imagine he would go there. If he- Totally not unreasonable. Yeah At that, no, yeah.
25:16
Totally not unreasonable. But like, uh, any talk of, I don't know, there were some murmurings early, "How can he slip in the first r- first round?" Come on, stop it with the first round.
25:24
Um, that was, uh, you know, just here and there.
25:27
But yeah, no, generally speaking, it is, uh, I was saying earlier on the show, like we have a couple shops here that offered NBA draft props, and I'm gonna tell the story tomorrow about what absolute hell it was trying to get a bet down.
25:40
You're almost better off not even offering it if you're gonna do what they did.
25:44
So it's, uh, you know, not the greatest environment here in Nevada either, so maybe you're better off there in California not having done so.
25:50
I will ask you this generally, 'cause you bet a lot of baseball awards and football awards.
25:54
Uh, we just had that Conn Smythe thing, and the point I was making yesterday and was so obvious was the, the live line for Conn Smythe during game seven, uh, the number was crashing on Connor McDavid, and Sergei Bobrovsky at one point was plus 120.
26:12
And I know you're not a hockey guy, but the bigger point of it was in the end, all of this was just nonsense because Bobrovsky only appeared on three of 17 ballots, um, and only one was a first place vote, two were third place votes.
26:27
He wasn't even close to winning. And so I'm just curious, as, as we've talked about these through the years, does that ever, does that ever temper your bets?
26:37
Do you ever say to yourself, um, you know, in awards markets, not exactly live betting markets, but that I compare it to, but, but in both cases there is no real algorithm involved and it's just sort of a perception thing with voters in both cases, and that's the nebulous part of it.
26:54
Does it ever temper it for you? Or were they taking, you know, were they moving based off taking a $500 bet on a, you know, on the underdog every- Maybe not even... 10 minutes or, you know? Maybe not even, yeah.
27:07
Whatever, what, were they moving off taking action, or were they just moving, you know, was, was somebody just changing their mind?
27:15
I, I, I tend to think they were probably moving off taking bets, um, but the people making the bets were probably not really, uh, you know, doing anything valuable with that money. I'm tryin'...
27:29
I don't know a better way to say it, but you're just kind of taking a shot, and it turns out, like you said, when, when you see the voting, you were nowhere close ever to, you know, having a, a live chance.
27:39
It was McDavid. It was always McDavid, essentially. But you, but- Yeah... but the question for you is, you don't think that will ever sort of prevent you from firing?
27:48
No, 'cause by then I can't really bet into that market, game seven live, you know, to, to change my position. So I'm already, you know, I'm in.
27:57
I'm, I've, I've found that it's better just to sit on, on what you like and see what happens. So no, it won't, it won't change anything for me. Yeah.
28:05
There's, there's not enough Damar Hamlins not winning to make you stop [laughs] I guess is, is the other way of putting this. What are you, what did you bet in baseball today? Let's start there.
28:14
Twins minus 116 is, uh, my only side so far today. I'm a little interested in the Dodgers, maybe Dodgers minus one and a half. Uh, I just don't like the White Sox. I'm gonna keep betting against them.
28:27
I probably lay, I'd probably lay the minus 172 here, but, uh, I have not bet that yet. I just really will see what I feel like later in the day. Um, have you been following the Euro at all?
28:40
I know that happens in the morning sometimes, so I know it's a big thing to talk about. Are you betting that? Uh, I'm gonna watch this, uh, Romania-Slovakia game.
28:48
I saw the, the total drop two to one and a half, so it's kinda interesting. I always like these games when there's potential shenanigans and stuff, so I will have my eye on that.
28:58
Motivation always a, uh, always a massive thing in, uh, in these particular games. And Romanian Slovakia, isn't that a special case, right? Romanian Slovakia. Are you aware of the motivations there? Somewhat.
29:10
I'm not, not completely aware, but I know, I mean, I, I'm just aware that the market is, you know, moving- So you-... under. So they both advance with a draw, essentially. They, so that's it.
29:19
So they both advance with a draw. Normally, you see a draw priced at, like, $2, right? Plus 200. This draw price is, like, even money almost, right? Like, it's right there. So- Yeah, I see 110- Yeah... on the three-way.
29:32
Yeah. So that's, that's the quirk with this particular game, and that's what makes this format so, you know, strange where a third place team can advance. So that's the quirk here on this game.
29:43
But it's not like, it's not like the market doesn't know that, obviously. No, definitely. Definitely priced in at, at this point. Yeah, for sure. Um, okay, what beyond are you, what beyond baseball are you betting then?
29:55
What's in the account? Um, honestly, mostly baseball right now. Just getting, uh, kind of circling around awards and seeing, seeing what I can find. You know, we're almost halfway through the season. Yeah.
30:06
It's, uh, sneaking up on us fast, but there's some guys, like I'll tell you, Wyatt Langford, he's, he's still 10 to one.
30:14
Like, I think that's a much better, uh, much better bet at this point than, uh, anything else out there. Kinda lost the window on, uh, Jason Dominguez. He'd be up right now.
30:24
You know, I, I, I think I played that correctly unfortunately, but he, uh, he got injured- Um, and then the Paul Skenes thing, you got the, he's out to minus 220, by the way, at FanDuel.
30:34
I saw that today, um, for, for, for, uh, Rookie of The Year. I think that's crazy. Uh,
30:40
I have to look it up, but I'm, I'm pretty confident in saying that if he wins Rookie of The Year, it would be historically the least amount of innings for a, a rookie pitcher.
30:50
So, um, I, I really think that number is incorrect. And, uh, Jackson Merrill, I mentioned him last week, his number's come down. I see Andy Paz is still 180 to one. He's batting cleanup for the Dodgers.
31:01
He's 180 to one on FanDuel. I think that's a little crazy. Uh, but I think there's gonna be a lot of movement, and especially in these Rookie of The Year markets.
31:08
I, I don't think Skenes or Louise Hill, uh, stay favorites much longer.
31:14
This is, this is bad form, 'cause I usually don't ask one guest to give an opinion on what another guest said, but Joe Sheehan was just on, and I found it fascinating.
31:23
'Cause I asked him, I was like, "Hey, the Guardians have..." [laughs] I don't know why I said, "Hey." I didn't say, "Hey." Uh, "Guardians have the best record in all of baseball. Um, they've just been spectacular.
31:33
W- d- could we actually be living in a world where they ultimately can sustain this?" And his response was to the opposite.
31:40
He said, actually, he, because of the, you know, he doesn't have any confidence in the starting pitching, and I totally get that viewpoint, he believes that 11 to one for them to miss the playoffs is actually a good bet.
31:53
Would you concur with that? 11 to one's a big number. I mean, that's basically the same number you can get right now on, uh, on the Braves. I would say probably slightly more likely to see, uh, the Guardians fall off.
32:06
And, you know, it's, it's a slightly more competitive division, and it's a competitive wild card race. So 11 to one, I think, you know, there are, there are scenarios where they do fall out of, uh, of the wild card.
32:18
So yeah, I'm not opposed to that. What's the betting team that has given you the most problem this year?
32:23
Just sort of, I don't know if you have it on a spreadsheet, but at least anecdotally, the one that you've gotten wrong the most. Let's see. Team that I've gotten wrong the most.
32:32
Probably, probably the Marlins again, in the sense that I was right about them and I was early, and, and now they've just kind of entered this free fall, and I haven't really taken advantage of it.
32:43
Other than that, I think the Nationals have played slightly better than I expected. Um, that's it. I, I really haven't had problems with a lot of teams this year. Um, it's been a pretty decent season.
32:56
I really can't complain that much. Yeah. No, not at all. Um, okay. Uh, Jason, any golf to c- close out here? Anything you got this weekend? I'm, uh, I'm out on golf so far this week. Nothing in the Rocket Mortgage.
33:09
I haven't found a place to bet the, uh, women's golf yet, and I haven't, I haven't done the Chris Feliko where I'm gonna hop on a plane to- [laughs]... a different state this week to make the bets.
33:19
I'm calling that the Feliko now. That was pretty impressive- You know, when you do that... wasn't it? That was pretty impressive. It is. That was the most im- It's- Yeah. Very. It's a thing. It's a thing.
33:27
The Feliko, we'll call it. Getting on a plane. Not a car, not a car ride to another state to make a bet, but getting on a flight. We learned that from Chris. He did that last week. Uh,
33:37
tremendous, from California to Arizona. Thank you, Jason. Um, the baseball plays again real quick are? Twins. Twins minus 116. Twins minus 116. Maybe the, maybe the Dodgers. Maybe the Dodgers.
33:48
Depending on how I feel later. Thank you, Jason. My NBA draft plays next.
33:51
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:09
We talked about it all show today, but our all new VSiN NFL betting guide drops tomorrow, and is packed with everything you need to dominate this NFL season.
34:16
We got in-depth profiles of every team, advanced stats, proven betting systems, from proprietary betting trends that you will not find anywhere else. Cannot wait for this tomorrow.
34:24
Whole bunch of football on the network all day long tomorrow. Uh, that's not all about the guide, though. Our experts have weighed in with their best bets on season win totals, futures, and props.
34:32
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just getting started, our NFL betting guide's your ticket to smarter, more informed bets.
34:36
And once again, to celebrate tomorrow, special coverage all day tomorrow with expert analysis, insider tips, and all the NFL insight you need to start the season strong.
34:44
Remember, the only way to get our all new NFL betting guide is to become a VSiN pro subscriber though, so visit vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today. Who do we got on the show to talk football with us tomorrow?
34:55
Adam Burke? Zachary Cohen. Zach Cohen. I think you said you wanted to get, uh, Crack's thoughts on some, uh, NFL thoughts. Uh- Wilson Hill... Wilson Hill. That's right. We'll get him on there.
35:05
A whole bunch of football tomorrow. Can't wait. There is, I, I agree with, uh, what, what Sia was saying. Once you start talking football, everything else is sort of secondary. There's no question about that.
35:15
'Cause this time of the year, everybody thinks that they are Super Bowl contenders as a fan, you know? Well, I don't wanna say everybody. Yeah, I love that play. But everyone feels just so confident about their team.
35:24
It, it, it's kind of the best time of the year. The optimism is so high, and I love it. I mean, there's ceilings. My optimism is could they sneak in, you know, could Washington sneak into a wild card?
35:33
I'm not gonna- Well, that was like last year-... even go beyond that... that was like last year for me with Green Bay, you know, with the transition from Rogers to Love.
35:39
It was like, okay, first you wanna see if J- if Jordan Love is, you know, the future for Green Bay, and can they kinda find a way to sneak into the playoffs?
35:47
And I thought them getting in as the final seed, I thought perfect season.
35:51
Perfect season for Green Bay, and just whatever, w- you know, eliminating the Cowboys and almost beating the Niners, it was kinda like icing on the cake. That's why I, I- You gotta be thrilled as a Packers fan, man.
35:59
Jordan Love. Again, you hold the clipboard for as long as he did, same continuity of an offense, you know, learning from a Hall of Fame quarterback, you often turn out good. And, and like- He certainly has...
36:10
and like you said, I think the most important thing for a young quarterback coming into the league, they've gotta have a decent offensive line. Oh, dude.
36:17
Who- 'Cause, you know, like you said, uh, who was, uh, not, uh, David Carr with the Texans back in the day. [laughs] Oh, the, the poster child.
36:24
I mean, he was, he was on his back every play, 'cause his offensive line just, just stunk. So it, it just kinda kills the confidence, and I think that was a big thing for, you know, Jordan Love.
36:33
I know he wasn't, you know, a- Confidence throwing the ball, but he had ti- he wasn't on his back a lot. Yeah. And I thought the offensive line really helped him out.
36:40
I was saying earlier, I was like, "Boy, I just keep thinking about RG III when I'm, w- I'm worried about Jayden Daniels."
36:44
And Lou, Lou Finaccaro, texts in and he goes, "Gil, RG III's a middle linebacker in the '60s compared [chuckles] to the frailty of Jayden Daniels. Daniels will never make it through an NFL season.
36:54
I'm sorry to be so candid." Well, I kinda piggybacking what I was saying, you know. Uh, this is on Twitter. We get tweets that beat in the book. Nick with a, uh, Omar Baltimore Orioles logo jersey.
37:05
I like that right there. Brian Schaefer, "Hey Gil, I saw you at your favorite sushi place yesterday. That place named so-and-so is awesome," he didn't say. "Sorry guys, I will not reveal Gil's sushi spot.
37:14
Go Astros, since my Mariners bet in June is in the toilet," or in the trash can, he says. Uh, there was no sushi last night. He's joking.
37:20
Rick Olier, "Since we've reached the doldrums of summer, here are a few of my wire NFL team power rankings. Stringer Bell is the Chiefs, uh, Marlowe and, uh, Avon are the Bengals, Ziggy, last place, the Raiders.
37:31
[laughs] And I can't explain this any better, but to say that McNuttie would be the Cowboys." That's good. Brian M, "Is there anywhere that offers a Super Bowl division matchup? I don't think I've seen that on DK."
37:43
What do you mean by... Oh, division in the s- you're talking about the Super Bowl division, uh, versus division. "I also don't ever recall seeing division to win a conference."
37:51
Uh, division to win a conference, probably not. Division to win a Super Bowl, yes. Uh, Justafollowvisan, "I had a handful of $50 draft bets that didn't work out for the NBA draft, and I was limited.
38:01
Oh, I can't wait to tell my story tomorrow." That's all I'll say. Justafollowvisan, I, I completely see what you're talking about. Johnny Vegas, "Who's this Joe Sheehan?
38:11
He's talking about the team with the best record in baseball not making the playoffs. Let's see his ticket. City likes him to miss the playoffs at 12 to 1. Guess where he's from? Wait for it. Freaking New York."
38:20
Johnny Vegas, not happy. He's a Guardians guy. Not happy with Joe Sheehan. It's an interesting take. It's an interesting take. Um, okay.
38:27
Before we leaved here, uh, before we leave here today, uh, wanted to go through the Core Four.
38:33
Uh, Luke Swain, Vegas Refund, who is a draft expert, NFL, NBA, and even NHL, uh, has historically done spectacularly well betting the NFL and NBA drafts.
38:43
He was here earlier in the week and he talked about the Core Four mockers. Mockers is what we call them, mock drafters, uh, that he follows.
38:51
And, uh, these are those four guys, it's actually two in one case, at their four respective, uh, four respective publications and, and, uh, media entities.
39:02
These are their final mock drafts heading into tonight's NBA draft. Sam Vecenie over at The Athletic, one of the Core Four.
39:10
Uh, he's got Zachary Risacher as number one, Saar second, Reed Shepard third, Stephon Castle fourth, and Klingon fifth. Uh, by the way, Dalton Connect, number six on his list. Uh, the top of that is pretty consensus.
39:22
Risacher, Saar, Shepard, Castle, one, two, three, four. That's Sam Vecenie from The Athletic. Uh, that's how his final mock draft is going.
39:29
Next of the Core Four as we move along, we're crescendoing to a fourth one that will be surprising. But the second one, uh, is from Jonathan Givony. He also does his with Jeremy Wu at ESPN.
39:43
Uh, Luke was mentioning they both work together now. They are-- we're gonna consider them one entity.
39:48
They have Zachary Risacher number one, Alex Saar number two, Reed Shepard number three, and Stephon Castle number four. Same consensus four. They do have, uh, Matas Buzelis at five, and Connect once again at six.
40:00
Um, so that's some consensus there at the top. Let's see number three of the Core Four mock drafters to see what he has. Uh, this is from Jonathan Wasserman at Bleacher Report.
40:14
He has Risacher number one to the Hawks, Saar number two to the Wiz, Shepard number three to the Rockets, Castle number four as well, and then, uh, Matas Buzelis at number five. Klingon, by the way, six.
40:27
He doesn't have Connect going until number eight. By the way, he has Zach Edie at 13, among others. But the top, once again, of the Core Four, very consensus the morning of the draft, Risacher, Saar, Shepard, and Castle.
40:39
All three of the Core Four that we've just talked about had those four in order. Number four, and the final one of the Core Four, here's where it gets a little interesting, boys and girls.
40:48
This is from Kevin O'Connor at The Ringer. Kevin O'Connor has, as the number one pick in the draft tonight, to the Hawks, Reed Shepard. Reed Shepard.
41:00
He has Klingon going two to the Wizards, Castle going third to the Rockets, Buzelis going fourth. He doesn't have Saar going until sixth. Connect at seven, by the way. Zach Edie 14 to the Blazers.
41:16
So Kevin O'Connor is the one of the Core Four that is an outlier. Interesting, with Reed Shepard going to the Hawks. Now, uh, I have only made three bets.
41:26
I completely believe and agree with everybody who said this is the draft to just take a flyer. This is the draft to just go crazy. These represent the bets that I actually was able to make.
41:36
Tomorrow, again, I will talk about the ones that I was not able to make. Uh, but I took, at some point... Th- this is one of these things where I don't even remember when I bet this, but it's in my account.
41:46
I bet Klingon to go five exactly. I think it was Drew who was on who got me thinking about this. Klingon at five, I got him at plus 737. I don't expect this to hit, but I have him at number five specifically overall.
41:56
Donovan Klingon at plus 737. I do have Zach Edie. I'm with Will Hill. I believe Zach Edie's gonna be a top 10 pick tonight. Got him at plus 155. Uh, the two-time Wooden Award winner, the back-to-back Wooden Award winner.
42:09
Had not been a back-to-back Wooden Award winner since Ralph Sampson did it with the Wahoos of the University of Virginia in the early '80s. Uh, I think cooler heads will prevail here, and Zach Edie will be a top 10 pick.
42:21
Got him at plus 155. And then, very much part of that Kevin O'Connor Ringer-induced mock draft, um, that was part of this. I ended up taking Reed Shepard to go number one tonight in tonight's NBA draft.
42:38
Do I think it's a lock to happen? I do not But at 75 to one, sure, I'll take a shot at that.
42:46
By the way, I bet him a couple other times at lower numbers, but at 75 to one, I'll take a little flyer on Reed Shepard, um, to go number one to the Hawks.
42:54
I really do believe this is a situation, um, where the Hawks, quite frankly, you know, they were a long shot to win the lottery. The longest shot to win the lottery. Um, they end up getting number one.
43:08
Not the longest, but I think the second longest shot to win the lottery. They end up getting number one.
43:12
I really don't think they thought about it beforehand, and so they've had this period to think it through in a draft that is, that does not have a prize anywhere near the level of a Wembanyama, just to give the, the greatest example.
43:24
But really doesn't have a prize, a, a singular prize at the top. And so there are inevitably going to be disagreements within front offices about who to play.
43:34
So I think if you're ever gonna take a shot, and we've talked about this all week leading up to tonight's draft, I think this is a draft to do so, and why not do it at number one, where they obviously have a lot of human things to think about, as we talked about earlier, um, with JVT, which is, okay, do I take the safe pick so that I can tell the owner of the team that he can buy into it, um, that they can buy into it 'cause the Hawks are a multi, multi-person owned team, um, and it's job preservation if that pick fails?
44:07
Or do I go crazy with one of these French players and they turn out to be an absolute bust, and that fails, then I'll really be on the hot seat.
44:15
So I think the, uh, the freshman guard from Kentucky, Reed Shepard, 75 to one, and Kevin O'Connor, uh, pushed it along. Yep, that's my play. We'll all find out together. Might not win. Might be Risacher.
44:28
Might be very boring, just like everybody thinks. But this is the time to take a flyer. If someone ever offers you 10,000 to one on anything, this is the NBA draft equivalent of that. We've done all we can do.
44:40
GoJoe and Golick are next on the radio side. Wyatt and I will be back tomorrow. NFL talk. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
A Numbers Game
Listen on
Apple Podcasts
Apple Podcasts
Pocket Casts
Pocket Casts
Castro
Castro
Recent episodes
A Numbers Game | September 17, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 17, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
