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Jun 27, 2024
A Numbers Game | June 27, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | June 27, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:48
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:11
It is the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you take this in, we appreciate it.
0:18
It's Gil Alexander, Wyatt Tomchek in for the vacationing, uh, Kelly Bidlin, live from Bar Canada. BD, what's happening? Yeah. Good to be back, good to be back.
0:27
A little bit, little bit sluggish getting out of bed today, but, uh, I've, I still made it here by, like, 6:00, so I'm proud of myself. But, uh, good to be with you here on a Thursday. It's NFL Guide Day. I'm excited.
0:38
NFL Guide Day. Uh, VSIN.com/guide if you are not a, uh, Pro subscriber. VSIN.com/pro to sign up to be a Pro subscriber. Only subscribers, only Pro subscribers get the guide.
0:51
Um, but this is a labor of love for those that, uh, work on this. Uh, we will have Adam Burke on momentarily.
0:57
He, uh, maybe more than anybody is, uh, responsible for this, but it's a, it's a collective effort from Matt Humans and crew. They do such a, a wonderful job on, on all of our betting guides.
1:07
But the NFL, uh, I think everybody might agree, is the one that people just get into the most. Previews of all 32 teams. So we'll have Adam Burke. We'll talk his favorite awards bets coming up.
1:18
He happened to do the NFC North and the AFC North, and we'll talk about that. His was actually an outlying pick in the NFC West. 20 people took the Niners.
1:28
The 21st and last, not A- Adam Burke did not take the Niners to win the NFC West, so we'll talk to him about that. Uh, Zach Cohen will join us thereafter, uh, to talk about the NFC East. Oh.
1:38
[laughs] That's in my wheelhouse. I might have to give some pushback to Zach on something if, if he goes a certain direction. We'll talk about the NFC East, which I feel is, top to bottom,
1:49
maybe the division with the most question marks. I think we...
1:51
I, I don't think we have a question mark about the Giants, but I think the other three teams we have massive question marks about, including the Eagles at the top, which we'll get to.
1:58
Will Hill will talk football with us, and it's Thursday, so, uh, we don't change Unscripted with the Crack Man, Bill Krackomberger.
2:03
He will be here as well, and that is when I will tell Wyatt my, uh, NBA draft story, my inability – by the way, would've lost, right? Would've lost, and I knew that as I was, I was trying to make the bet.
2:16
I was like, "This is likely to lose." This is what makes this so ridiculous. But my inability, the comedy and the horror, and I mean the horror part, like, seriously, what sports betting has,
2:28
has become in certain respects here in the state of Nevada, maybe beyond, the inability to get down a draft bet, it is both comedy and just an awful story. We'll get to it. It, it involves more than one sportsbook.
2:41
We'll name names on the sportsbooks, too. Um, and we'll talk to Crack about that. As far as the draft, Wyatt, um, I don't know how, how you enjoyed the draft.
2:49
But I will say that our buddy Luke Swain, who we had on earlier in the week, uh, did very, very well.
2:54
Not only did he hit the top four, which, which most people did consensus-wise, um, which of course was, uh, Resse Shay, Saar, Shepard, Castle, in that order. Then it got crazy at five with Holland.
3:07
Nobody saw that coming, uh, at number five with Ron Holland go, uh, from the G League Unite going, uh, Ignite, pardon me, going to the Detroit Pistons, and then it got a little wacky after that.
3:16
Um, but, uh, Luke at Vegas Refund, Luke Swain, he also got, you know, he, he hit Donovan Clinglan, Donovan Clingan, pardon me, at number seven exactly. That was a big play for him. Did get Zach Edy in the top 10.
3:30
Zach Edy in the top 10 saved me in my little bitty three plays that I made. Um, he hit a lot. He had Tyler Smith going late and not even in the first round. He'll be in the second round. He called that correctly.
3:40
He was right about Nikola Topic over 10 and a half. He ends up going 12. Um, so there, and there was other stuff, too, that he, that he got right as well, uh, including Carrington being a top 20 pick.
3:55
By the way, I just let, you know, people go on, on selected media now, and they tell, "Oh, winners and losers in the NBA draft."
4:01
I think that's always a fool's errand, um, particularly in the NBA, and particularly an NBA draft, where most of us watching are like, "Well, I've never seen that guy play." Right?
4:10
So it's, I just think that that exercise is, uh, oftentimes one fraught with all kinds of pitfalls.
4:16
But I will say this, 'cause I have a bias on Deni Avdija, I think Portland did well, 'cause Portland does get Donovan Clingan at seven. Um, and they trade before the draft for Deni Avdija from the Wizards.
4:29
They traded a haul for him, by the way, which was incredible, including the 14th pick, which, uh, the Wiz turned into Carrington.
4:35
But, um, I just feel like, uh, I don't know, when I went on vacation after the Super Bowl, if people, keen numbers games listeners, numbers game listeners will remember the very first thing I said when I got back from the Super Bowl vacation was the greatest thing that happened in sports was Deni Avdija dropping 43 in a game.
4:52
I think it was like 43 and 15 in a game that he played against New Orleans.
4:55
He over, uh, he absolutely set career highs in points, in rebounds, three-point percentage this year, so that's a great pickup for the Blazers, and along with Clingan. Good for them.
5:05
Um, but that's obviously a personal bias for me on Avdija.
5:08
Uh, the one, the one value play I think that everybody does agree on, because at least we've laid eyes on this player, uh, Dalton Connect dropping all the way to 17 and going to the Los Angeles Lakers, who by the way, the Lakers, of course, are the only thing that matters to most people today on center stage for the second round of the NBA draft, which, oh, get this, uh, I don't know how many people you would think would watch it even if it was in prime time.
5:32
The a- second round of the NBA draft is at 4:00 PM Eastern, 1:00 PM Pacific. It's in the afternoon here. I just learned that. Yeah. I, I for sure thought it was gonna be- Oh, no... prime time.
5:41
It's in the middle of the day. Oh. So it's, you know, the, the Tyler Koligs of the world will go early, but everybody's wanting to know if, uh, Bronny will go 55 to the Lakers or elsewhere.
5:49
Um, but Dalton Connect falling to 17.
5:52
Like, if we, if we had stopped time during the SEC, uh, the SEC championship series, and during the NCAA tournament, and we had whispered to, if, if you whispered to somebody, "Hey, by the way, you see Dalton Connect?
6:05
He's gonna drop to 17 in a, what is considered a horrible draft." You would be like, what? There's no chance of that happening.
6:12
And I thought that ESPN did a very subpar job, and I'm being kind, of highlighting the fact that he was dropping, uh, to 17. And even in the interview, uh, he was not asked, "How do you feel about that?"
6:27
Or anything like that. So anyway, I thought the, uh, the broadcast missed the boat on that as well.
6:30
But that's, that's the only th- that's the only value play, that's the only interesting part that I think everybody agrees on, that him going to 17 was, was probably the surprise of the draft.
6:38
I, I like that pick for the Lakers. You know, they're ta- wh- wh- what does Los Angeles need? Obviously, I think they need shooting, and Dalton Knecht was a, was a walking bucket last year for, uh, Tennessee.
6:49
And a good story too, Gil. Didn't get a D1 offer, played at Northern Colorado, and really his one year in prime time, he was the best player, arguably almost, almost the best player in college basketball.
6:59
Well, we'll see how round two goes. We'll see where Bronny goes. Good luck with all your bets on that.
7:03
Uh, by the way, that story that I will tell with Crack has to do with me trying to get down on Reed Shepard to go number one, which did not happen.
7:11
But the intel that was flying around, b- usually with the same people that had Bonaccuro at number one a couple years back, and that manifested. This was not as strong an intel. This was like, it's 50/50.
7:23
It's 50/50 between, uh, Zachary Risacher and Reed Shepard to go number one to the Hawks. That the Hawks were shocked, obviously, by the lottery. They had very small odds to win the lottery. They did.
7:36
Then they had to figure out, well, okay, like, who do we really want here? Um, and they tried with the Trae Young trade stuff, and all, it, it was a whole bunch swirling.
7:44
And ultimately, they were torn inside the front office. And if you... It was kind of Con Smythe light yesterday. If you looked at the live lines, Reed Shepard to go number one actually got as short as plus 750.
7:57
Remember, I got him at 75 to one. Didn't get there in the end, but I'll tell the whole story about how I could not get down a bet in Vegas on it, and it was ridiculous.
8:06
We'll tell that, that story with Crack a little later on. Um- You didn't wanna pull a Felika? What's that? You didn't wanna pull a Felika? Oh, and fly to another state? Yeah. Yeah, no [laughs].
8:14
We call that pulling a Felika in the business. Uh, real quick, 'cause we wanna talk football with Adam Burke here. Uh, the Houston Astros win again. They, uh, beat the Rockies.
8:23
Um, no huge achievement in doing that again, but they do it 7 to 1 yesterday. It is their seventh straight win.
8:29
And so now, with three games left, and a lot of people were hitting me on Twitter yesterday at Beating the Book who are on this bet with me. With three games left in the month of June,
8:39
here's what the standings look like. The New York Metropolitans, this is for most wins in the month of June. Uh, I got the Astros at 25 to one at William Hill Caesars. I have them at 17 to one here at Circa.
8:51
Um, the A- the, the New York Mets are at 15 and six after they crushed the Yankees by 10 runs yesterday. Uh, Mets 15 and six. The Astros are 15 and seven. The Dodgers are 15 and eight.
9:04
Now, the real news that happened with our bet yesterday was not only the Astros winning, but every other team that controlled destiny over the Astros lost.
9:15
And so for the first time, as we sit here on June 27th, with four days left in the month, three games left, h- the Houston Astros control their own destiny for the first time.
9:26
At Circa, if Houston goes three and O, and remember, they're playing the Mets this weekend at Citi Field. If Houston goes three and O, and that's a big if, I get it. It might not happen.
9:36
For goodness sakes, they could fall on their face.
9:37
But if they go three and O, the Houston Astros win most wins in the month of June at Circa, because they will win, um, all tiebreakers even if the Dodgers went three and O.
9:47
Uh, or if the, or if the Diamondbacks go four and O down the stretch, or if the Cardinals go four and O down the stretch.
9:56
The Astros would win all tiebreakers here at Circa because the Turk- uh, the Circa tiebreakers are, again, fewest wins followed by run differential. They would win it on fewest wins.
10:06
So control their own destiny out right here at Circa. At William Hill Caesars for the first time, the Houston Astros now control their own destiny for the most won, uh, most wins in the month of June.
10:16
They control their own destiny as far as a dead heat is concerned. In other words, the worst they can do if they go three and O is dead heat with the teams that I just mentioned.
10:26
The Dodgers, the Diamondbacks, who have four games left and have 14 wins, and the Cardinals, who have four games left and have 14 wins.
10:33
Oh, and one more team, the Orioles could also dead heat them at William Hill Caesars. They're at 14 wins and have four games left as well.
10:41
So they're, the dead heat could get ugly still at William Hill Caesars, but at least the Astros now control their own destiny for that at the worst.
10:48
And if you're looking at the matchup, again, between the Astros and the Mets, by the way, people who have the Mets, I don't know if anybody does, but if you had the Mets, who came into the...
10:56
It's amazing, again, the Mets and the Astros had the fewest scheduled games in all of the month of June. Astros had 25 scheduled, Mets had 24.
11:04
Remember, the Orioles had 29, but as I pointed out in the handicap, that was not enough to dissuade me, and here we are.
11:11
As far as this pitching matchup is concerned, what's scheduled right now between the Astros and the Mets, the Astros have the best of it on Friday and Saturday.
11:19
Ronel Blanco going on Friday, Framber Valdez scheduled for Saturday. The Mets will get the best of it probably on Sunday with Luis Severino. There is one other horrible factor that could take place.
11:30
Rain is in the forecast on Saturday and Sunday. If we lose that way, oh my God. Hopefully we can dodge the raindrops. Anyway, that's where we stand. We'll do the whole scenario again, uh, tomorrow.
11:42
We'll put it up on social. I don't know, maybe we'll just put that one up on social, on social. Uh, we'll talk football. Our NFL betting guide is out. Adam Burke next on a Numbers Game at VS, the Sports Betting Network.
11:52
[upbeat music]A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network VSiN's NFL betting guide was released today, and there's never been a better time to become a VSiN Pro subscriber.
12:10
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12:18
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12:26
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12:40
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12:44
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12:55
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13:08
Gil Alexander, Wyatt Tomchek here at Bar Canada at the D, numbers game at VSiN, and we are thrilled to have one of the key cogs of not only the NFL betting guide, but all of our betting guides. It's Adam Burke.
13:19
I always call him the glue that holds this operation together. Uh, technically he's the VSiN managing editor and co-host of the Double Play podcast as well. You can follow him on Twitter @skatingtripods.
13:28
Adam joins us to talk about the guide right now from his place here in Vegas. How you doing, Adam? I'm good.
13:36
I think the, uh, I think all the excitement, all the work in the guide kinda wore me down a little bit, and maybe, I don't know, maybe it's the wildfire smoke, but good to be with you guys here.
13:43
Well, can we, can we dig- well, I hope the wildfire smoke, I hope you can dodge that, first of all.
13:47
But how, how long would you say this guide takes to do from the moment you put pen down or, or type your first letter, uh, to do this, and the collective effort, like, how many collective man-hours does this take?
14:04
Yeah, it's a, it's a fair question.
14:05
I mean, I, I handed out assignments a little over a month ago, you know, on this guide, just making sure that everybody kinda knew what was expected of them and, you know, also give our guide editor, Matt Devine, time to put this thing together.
14:15
So we had staggered deadlines for it. I think the first piece came in June 13th, uh, and then we kinda built out from there.
14:21
So, you know, it's definitely a, uh, it's a work in progress, at least over that, you know, three-week period. But look, I mean, I've got a phenomenal team here at VSiN.
14:30
My senior editor, Zach Cohen, who I know you're gonna have on the program here, I believe next- Next, yep...
14:35
um, you know, not, not only, not only does he cover tennis and NBA for us over at the website, but he's a tremendous help to me with any of these big projects that we do, so he was a big help.
14:44
Everybody's been a big help, honestly, from everyone promoting it on air, the people making graphics to help promote it, to the producers making sure that it's weaved into the rundown for the show.
14:54
Everybody has a hand in this thing. Everybody is, you know, part of the reason why we h- we are so successful with these guides.
15:00
So makes my job a little bit easier to have the team that I have around me, that's for sure.
15:05
Well, that's very, that's very modest of you, but, uh, you are a key cog in all of it at all times, and, uh, we wanna acknowledge that. Again, vsin.com/guide. Gotta be a Pro subscriber, vsin.com/pro for everybody.
15:17
Uh, I wanna get to the NFC North and the AFC North, which you wrote yourself. I wanna get to your awards plays.
15:21
But before we do any of that, the grid that is featured in this guide, I went over it a little yesterday to start the show.
15:27
Uh, 21 VSiN personalities talking about their, you know, division picks, conference picks, Super Bowl picks. Uh, the NFC West, sir, 20 of the 21 folks picked the Niners to win the NFC West. You were the one outlier.
15:41
Who did you pick and why? Yeah, so I, I think the Rams have a real shot to win this thing this year. I really like some of the additions that they made on the defensive side.
15:49
Offensively, I mean, this was a good team last year, you know? This was a top 10 offense.
15:53
You've got maybe the best wide receiver tandem in the NFL in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, and you got Kyren Williams, who's a really, really good running back.
16:00
Matthew Stafford may be getting a little bit long in the tooth, but I still think he's able to get the job done here, and I also really like the addition of Jonah Jackson on the offensive line.
16:09
But defensively, this was a below average unit by EPA per play last year, and they brought in Tre'Davious White. We'll see if he can stay healthy.
16:17
They brought in Darius Williams, so I think they did a really good job of adding some talent at the corner position.
16:23
Also, you bring in a pass rusher like Jared Verse, that's never going to hurt, and I don't think people really realize this.
16:28
And honestly, from a production and stats standpoint, my vote for the Defensive Rookie of the Year last year would've gone to Kobe Turner, who's the guy who's kinda gonna replace Aaron Donald in this defense.
16:40
That's what he did last year. You know, he kinda rotated in when Donald came off the field, but you can move him around as a down lineman, little bit of a rusher. I think he is a budding superstar in the NFL.
16:50
So I think the Rams are really, really talented. I think they're kinda being slept on a little bit because the 49ers have been so good and so consistent. I, I, you know what?
16:59
I honestly think it's, it's worth a shot to take a Rams future to win the NFC West here. Plus 330 for the Rams at DraftKings right now to win the NFC West. All right, you wrote about the NFC and AFC North.
17:10
Let's start in the NFC. Wyatt is wrapped with attention 'cause he's a Packers fan here. Uh, NFC North odds, Lions are the short shot, Adam, at plus 150, as you know. Wyatt's Packers plus 210.
17:21
The Bears plus 265 with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams cozied up to the Lions and the Packers in the betting market. And then the Vikings, one of these things is not like the other. They're 10 to one.
17:33
Um, wow, that's a big gap. W- how did you come down on this division in its entirety?
17:39
Yeah, well, I'll go ahead and throw out one of the awards picks that I had to kind of, you know, grease the wheels here in the NFC North, which is I heard Matt Brown.
17:47
One time I was coming in for a segment on The Handle, and I heard Matt Brown talking about Jared Goff 40 to one to win the MVP, and I thought, "Okay, this is really interesting. He's making a strong case for it.
17:56
I don't know that I can bet it, but I think that he's making a pretty strong case for it." Then the NFL schedule came out on May 15th- And Jared Goff plays 14 of his 17 games indoors this season.
18:07
He only has three games that are outside, only one of them pretty much guaranteed to be in bad weather. That's in late December in Chicago at Soldier Field. So the weather won't be good there, we know that.
18:17
There's no question about that. Other than that, his two outdoor road games, early November at Lambeau Field, and then late December out in Santa Clara against the 49ers.
18:27
I like Jared Goff 40 to one to win the MVP as well, and it was the schedule that gave me the push to kinda go over this one.
18:34
So if I expect Goff to be an MVP level candidate, certainly I expect the Lions to be the top team here in the NFC North. They got a ton of weapons. The offense is good.
18:43
Dan Campbell went from being the butt of all jokes to being one of the better coaches in the NFL.
18:48
I think that, you know, this is a team that's really building nicely, and they can run it back on offense again with Ben Johnson, who didn't get a head coaching job.
18:55
So for me, it is the Lions that I think are the top dog here in the NFC North. AFC North, Ravens plus 130. By the way, I love the Jared Goff play. Uh, AFC North, Ravens plus 130, Bengals plus 145.
19:08
I already bet the Bengals some months ago at plus 175. Uh, it's top-heavy there. Then your Browns at six to one, and the Pittsburgh Steelers, uh, at plus 850 bringing up the rear. Best division in football?
19:22
Uh, I, yeah, I guess I would say best. I would certainly say deepest. You know, I, I don't know if maybe it's the best.
19:27
I, I wonder if maybe the NFC North, you know, is a little bit stronger top to bottom, but I do think that this is the deepest division and the most difficult one to play in.
19:35
I mean, these AFC North games are wars year in and year out. And I think it's gonna be really fascinating to see how things play out here.
19:41
It turns out I'm a little bit lower on the Bengals than, than most of us here at the network. I mean, when you look at the division winner picks, 10 picked the Ravens, 10 picked the Bengals.
19:50
So even across the board, one very brave soul took the Browns.
19:54
But I, you know, I just don't know that there's a guarantee that Joe Burrow's gonna come back off of this weird wrist injury that, you know, we've never really seen in the NFL all that often.
20:05
And Burrow has kind of admitted, like, you know, "Hey, this is gonna be a thing where we're gonna have to monitor it for a while, because we don't know exactly how my body's going to respond to it."
20:13
Says he's fine, says he's doing all of his things to prep for the season, but I'm a little bit concerned here. Also, you know, does the offense maybe take a little bit of a step back with Brian Callahan gone?
20:23
The defense, we all talk up Lou Anarumo, but they really weren't that good last year. They struggled badly against the run, 25th in rush EPA, 24th in drop back EPA.
20:33
They gotta get a lot better on that side of the ball, I think.
20:36
And for Cleveland, I mean, look, th- this might be the best roster in the AFC outside of the quarterback position, and the problem is the quarterback position is the most important position in sports.
20:48
So we saw it last year. I mean, the Browns, Kevin Stefanski wins coach of the year. They're a playoff team with five different quarterbacks.
20:54
Watson had a good win-loss record as the starter, but his stats weren't really good.
20:58
Um, you know, the defense got exposed a little bit by a downfield passing game of the Texans that they hadn't really seen a whole lot, and Jim Schwartz didn't really account for it, but that's a rarity in today's NFL.
21:09
So I still think the Browns have a really high s- really high floor, potentially high ceiling if Watson's any good. I still think Baltimore wins the division, though. Adam, give us one more awards market.
21:19
You had said Goff to win MVP, Jared Goff to win MVP 40 to one earlier. Give us one more awards play you like.
21:25
Yeah, so this one, I mean, look, you know, when you look at the coach of the year markets, a lot of times it's a first-year guy, maybe a second-year guy who has a really big, you know, win upgrade with his team, right?
21:35
Maybe they win four, five, six more games, something like that, and he winds up winning coach of the year.
21:40
I think Nick Sirianni at 40 to one actually has a shot to do this, though, because, yeah, the Eagles were great last year, but they completely fell apart, and that's the only thing that people remember. They fell apart.
21:50
They got blown out by a very mediocre Tampa Bay team in the playoffs. I think the Eagles are 14 and three or better kinda good this year.
21:57
So I think Sirianni, if they are the number one seed, this feels to me like when John Harbaugh won coach of the year a few years ago, because the first-year coaches outside of Matt LaFleur didn't do all that well.
22:09
So I think Sirianni at 40 to one with maybe the best team in the NFL in terms of a win-loss standpoint, I don't think it's as crazy as it sounds, even though you look at this award historically, it typically goes to younger coaches.
22:20
Adam's AFC North and NFC North write-ups, uh, including the, uh, two awards picks he just gave. He also has an offensive rookie of the year play in the guide and a defensive rookie of the year play guide.
22:31
Uh, both of those are, uh, 25 to one and 35 to one respectively currently, so check it out again at vsin.com/guide, the VSiN Pro Football, the VSiN NFL Betting Guide. Adam, thank you so much, man.
22:44
Thanks for making the time. Thanks, guys. Have a good one. Adam Burke, everybody, VSiN managing editor, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. We'll come back, Zach Cohen on the NFL next.
22:52
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Our all-new VSiN NFL Betting Guide is out now. Have you heard this one?
23:09
It's out now, and it's packed with everything you need to dominate this NFL season.
23:12
We got in-depth profiles of every team, advanced stats, proven betting systems, and proprietary betting trends that you won't find anywhere else, but that is not all.
23:19
Our experts have weighed in with their best bets on season win totals, futures, and props. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just getting started, our NFL Betting Guide is your ticket to smarter, more informed bets.
23:27
And to celebrate the release of the guide, VSiN is going all out today with expert NFL analysis, insider tips, and insight to help you start the season strong.
23:34
Visit vsin.com/guide to get your copy of our all-new NFL Betting Guide today. That's V-S-I-N.com slash guide. Gil Alexander, Wyatt Tomcheck in for Kelly Bidlin here at Bar Canada at the D.
23:48
Uh, thrilled to have Zach Cohen join us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Uh, Zach, a VSiN writer and editor. You can follow him on Twitter at bettingonx.
23:56
Zach, I'm pumped because you, you had the NFC East beat, and I always love talking NFC East, so we'll get into that momentarily. Uh, but can we crescendo?
24:05
Can we start with, 'cause I'm looking at our grid here, and you've got some, uh, you've got some interesting thoughts on the Chicago Bears. What's your favorite bet there? Let's start there.
24:16
Yeah, so I took Caleb Williams to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, which I got at about plus 200. I think it's down to plus 140 or so now. Uh, I'd still take it. I know it's a really short number.
24:25
You don't really wanna have your money tied up in a long-term bet like that without getting a really good payout.
24:30
But at the same time, like, I think that Williams is entering the league in a better position than any quarterback we've seen in recent memory.
24:36
I just can't think of a team that's been as loaded as Chicago is on the offensive side of the ball for a quarterback that we're touting as, you know, one of the best prospects we've seen in years.
24:45
So I think that Williams is entering a situation where you have DJ Moore, you have Keenan Allen, you have Rome Odunze, who they picked at number nine, and then Nicole Clement is a really good tight end as well.
24:53
I think that this is going to be a really good pass-catching weapons team, and I think that they're gonna do a really good job of making Williams comfortable in his first year in the league.
25:00
So I know that there's some tough games at the end of the year, but I actually like that he's going to have, you know, an earlier start to the season that's going to be a little bit easier.
25:08
It's going to allow him to ease into the year, and I just would be really surprised if he doesn't win. That's why I was willing to take that at a small number. It, it's a, it's amazing the expectations on Caleb Williams.
25:18
Uh, but as you point out, maybe as good a situation as you can possibly expect for a guy getting drafted number one, uh, the one that Caleb Williams is entering.
25:27
And then you like the Bears as a, as a whole to make the playoffs. Yeah, I'm taking a shot on them to make the playoffs. I mean, I think that the defense last season was amazing once they got Montez Sweat.
25:36
They were top five in the league in EPA per play allowed from the time on that they got Sweat.
25:41
The pass rush just needed a little bit of life, and he gave that to 'em, and actually changed the entire way that they played defense. They became a much better pass-defending team once they got Sweat.
25:49
I think that that defense is only going to be better with another year with Sweat in the system. I think that Matt Eberflus is a really good defensive coach.
25:56
And then like I said, like, I think that this offense is going to be able to hit the ground running, even if Williams is, like, 75% of what we think he's going to be and not the full thing.
26:04
Like, I think that this offense is good enough to really do some special things.
26:07
Yeah, I was mentioning yesterday in the, uh, grid, the 21 VSiN experts, again, with divisions, conference, and, uh, Super Bowl plays, that, uh, in the AFC, three wild card teams, 21 teams, so 63 picks tire- entirely.
26:20
There were no surprises for AFC wild card from anyone. But in the NFC, there were two Bears wild cards. You were one of them, I believe, as we just, uh, learned right here.
26:30
And, uh, then there was one Cardinals and there was one Commanders. I am the Commanders guy, and for those who would snicker at that because I grew up loving this team, I'm the guy who always bets against them.
26:40
So for me to actually like them, um, I would, I would actually think that that should carry a little more weight. Let's talk NFC East, because I do feel like it is...
26:51
And by the way, I don't think the Commanders are gonna be great. I think it's a weak conference where they have a wide variety of outcomes. And so I think that's a possibility because of that.
27:01
But I also think the rest of the division is in complete chaos. How do you view the division at wh- as a whole, and then, uh, that can segue into an MVP bet that you have?
27:11
Well, I will, I will say I have the Commanders over six and a half.
27:14
I honestly, I took everybody, every team in the East to go over, because like you, I am down on the overall NFC, and I think that the NFC East is going to have some competitive football teams.
27:23
Two years ago, in 2022, all of these teams would have gone over this year's win total. So it's, you know, it's tough to say that they're all gonna do it again.
27:30
I don't think that's going to happen, but I do think that you're getting plus money odds on a lot of the overs in the NFC East. So if, you know, two or three of 'em hit, you'll end up profiting a little bit.
27:39
But I do think the Commanders are in a pretty good position to surprise some people. I just think that Dan Quinn is such a good defensive coordinator that he's going to fix a lot of the problems that they had last year.
27:48
He's going to play... You know, they, they're gonna make less mistakes over the top of the defense, which has, uh, been a big problem for them is the secondary over the last couple years.
27:56
So I do think that he's going to fix that quite a bit. And then Bobby Wagner, they just added in the middle, I think he's one of the best linebackers in football still, even at an older age.
28:04
I think that he's going to change the locker room quite a bit. And I also think that obviously Jayden Daniels is every bit as talented as Caleb Williams, in my opinion.
28:11
I think that he's entering an offense that also has a pretty good amount of weapons.
28:15
It's not quite as good as Chicago, but I do think it's a team that can surprise some people, because I think the defense will be better, and I think the offense has a lot of potential if Daniels hits.
28:24
We gonna have a back-to-back winner in this division for the first time in over 20 years? I don't think so. I mean, I think that the Eagles are going to win the division.
28:32
I, I, I took both of these teams to go over 10 and a half. Uh, I don't feel great.
28:35
I feel better about the Eagles making a long run in the NFC than I do about them winning the division, but I'm really high on Philadelphia this year.
28:42
I just think that the coordinator changes they made in the off-season were massive.
28:46
I think Vic Fangio is going to stabilize that defense after a really down year, and I think that Kellen Moore is just gonna keep things a little bit more simple on offense.
28:53
I think Brian Johnson was the reason that a lot of those drives stalled out for the Eagles last year, and I think Barkley, you know, it's not a huge upgrade over Swift.
29:01
It's, it's a weird situation where people wanna hype up a big name coming in. Swift did a good job for them, but it's a small upgrade.
29:07
I do think it'll help the offense a bit, but I think mostly the most important thing for Philadelphia will be that Jalen Hurts will be healthy this year after being banged up visibly for most of last season.
29:16
Can I, can I play devil's advocate? Can I give the, the case against the Eagles, just to have a- Go ahead... a debate about this? Um, so they lose six of their last seven, including the playoff game last year.
29:27
They were a no-show against the Bucs. But remember, they got destroyed by, uh, Dallas and San Francisco. They lost to the Cardinals and the Giants down the stretch.
29:38
I think the, I think the, the, uh, point differential was -82 in those last regular season games, and then they lose to Tampa in the playoffs. Tampa Bay was nine and eight. Uh, as you point out, new coordinators.
29:49
So they fire Brian Johnson on offense. Sean Desai [chuckles], Sean Desai gave way to Matt Patricia, which ends up being Vic Fangio. So that's a good thing in the long term, one would think.
30:00
But there is a transitional period, right? And so I worry about that, because Jalen Hurts, this is one of the things that, you know, tried and true NFL thing is continuity.
30:10
Continuity matters more than we ever say that it does. And so I'm going through the... These are the coordinators, offensive coordinators for Jalen Hurts.
30:21
Not to mention, by the way, in college he was, he, he had to transfer right from Alabama to Oklahoma, so he's getting different systems there too. But it's Kellen Moore this year. Before that it was Brian Johnson.
30:30
Shane Steichen two years before that. Press Taylor before that. So that's four, what's that? Four coordinators in five years now as a pro, not to mention his college days.
30:40
And so I just wonder if some- if someone like Hurts can acclimate that quickly. Like, every year things are changing up. Um, and then I think about their defense, right? And, uh, we gave the s- them so much credit.
30:55
This is why, you know, I was saying with the NBA draft earlier, this is why you can't really analyze a draft the next day and say, "Oh, winners and losers," 'cause we were all like, "Oh, the Eagles, they're mimicking the Georgia defense."
31:05
Well, Jalen Carter didn't finish strong last year. Jordan Davis, they say he's in better shape, but he's still 350 pounds. Nakobe Dean is a backup. Um, Nolan Smith couldn't even get on the field.
31:16
Then you have Barkley's wear and tear. The schedule isn't easy. Um, the D-line depth is probably, you know, not something we bring up enough. So I guess, I, I guess what I'm saying is you throw all of that in.
31:28
And by the way, Sirianni seems like now he's one of these coaches where if things go bad early, he could be the scapegoat. All of that in the mix, my feeling about the Eagles, you might be right.
31:39
They might win this division, but what's the political term that they use at political conventions? It might be by acclamation, 'cause everybody else sucks. That's possible. Yeah.
31:48
I mean, I'm putting a lot of faith in Hurts this season. I think that last season what we saw was a bit of a fluke. Like I said, I think he was a little bit banged up. He looked uncomfortable for most of the year.
31:56
I think he threw more picks than we're going to see him throw this season. I think that he's not a player that's going to make a lot of mistakes in the passing game. I think that last year was a bit of a fluke, honestly.
32:05
His completion percentage over expected last season was higher than it was the year before. So I think we can trust him to bounce back and be an accurate passer again. And I think that Moore is going to come in.
32:15
I don't think he's going to change the offense drastically. I think it's just going to be some small changes here and there where there are gonna be some play calls that make a little bit more sense.
32:22
I think that Johnson threw a lot of QB draws in there in times that did not make sense, which, you know, were bad plays to begin with, but also put Hurts at harm's way.
32:30
So I think that the offense is going to be a little bit more simple.
32:32
I think that adding Paris Campbell is going to help as an underneath option to just kind of make things a little easier on Hurts with a short target in the passing game.
32:40
And then defensively, yeah, there are some major concerns.
32:42
Like, you're gonna need Carter to play a lot better than he did towards the end of last season, but I'm a big believer in his talent, and I'm a big believer in the line talent.
32:49
Like, the defensive line I think is going to be a strength there, even if, even though, despite what we saw towards the end of last season. Yeah. I didn't even mention Jason Kelce is retired also.
32:57
That's obviously in the mix. Yeah. That's a big one also. In the mix as well. Yeah.
33:00
But, you know, at the same time, that's why the NFC East I think is so fascinating this year because I could also see a scenario where Dallas, right, 'cause Jerry's not paying anybody.
33:09
If things go bad for them, I could see, like, a complete revolt in terms of their play on the field, 'cause they'll be like, "Ah, he's not paying us either. This is terrible."
33:17
So I d- I do think the Eagles still might be the best team in this division despite all the warts, but it should be fascinating because new coordinators, Sirianni just sort of overseeing it.
33:28
Uh, Zach Cohen on the NFC East and all of his plays, again, in the VSiN NFL betting guide, vsin.com/guide. Zach, appreciate it very much, man. Always great to talk to you. Thanks, guys. The great Zach Cohen.
33:42
Betting on X on the Twitter machine. We'll come back. Football, the global game, with Paul Carr next.
33:50
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:08
Don't forget to check out our website, vsin.com. Best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state, betting tools, betting guides.
34:16
Just 'cause we're doing the NFL betting guide today doesn't mean our website shuts down. It is full, in full effect. It's in full effect mode wide, is what it is. The Great Al B. Sure!
34:25
Uh, NHL draft predict- uh, predictions from Johnny Lazarus. How about that? On the heels of the NBA draft first round and the second round today, NHL draft taking place this weekend. Johnny Lazarus with his plays.
34:36
Uh, JBT does attempt a winners and losers from the first round of the NBA draft. Um, and then we got some, man, Adam Burke. You think, you think he's got it all covered?
34:46
How about the, uh, the Ally 400 NASCAR betting odds and predictions from Adam? And Lou Finaccaro on UFC 303, big UFC card this weekend as well. Adam d- Adam did NASCAR?
34:55
[laughs] He's got- Oh, I'm gonna have to text him about who he likes. He's doing it right here. It's amazing. Steve Macaden with bullpen betting systems. This is all at vsin.com. Check it out.
35:04
We get tweets at Beating The Book. Uh, this is from GillsGuys15284, 'cause 15283 was taken. Uh, "Is there any value on Naomi Osaka at Wimbledon?"
35:12
He says, "Chic," [laughs] that's how you refer to her, "Chic took Queen Iga the distance, was very impressive." Talking about the French Open. Yes, Iga scared at the French Open.
35:20
Uh, I am not betting Osaka at Wimbledon, just to be honest. Um, but I don't hate it. Uh, I think there's, I think she's always with a flyer. We don't know the draw yet.
35:28
By the way, uh, Drew Dincic, Zach Cohen, and I, the, uh, the same gentleman who was just on the air with us, we are doing a Wimbledon podcast after the show today. This is from SnicklefritzPicks.
35:40
"I know a World Series prediction is a dart throw, but would you be enticed by a 30 to 1 Phillies over Guardians or Phillies over Orioles?" Um, I don't hate them, but I'd need more than 30 to 1, SnickerPicks.
35:52
Uh, Jesse Welch, "I cannot believe Connect fell so far. That decapitated my whole draft. Under nine and a half, eight and a half, and seven and a half. Dang.
36:01
Just to follow VSiN, I'm thinking draft numbers must not be installed on the board. Maybe taped up from behind facade. That's why I couldn't, that's why we couldn't bet them, even though the books put them up.
36:09
Mine would've been losers, too. Lol." I will tell that draft story coming up with Crack momentarily.
36:14
And then, uh, Dusty, dustyNoel7- Uh, when going through this two and a half month long journey, almost three months now with baseball month-long picks, you said you bet the teams blindly day to day.
36:24
What's your factor or price to betting minus one and a half compared to straight ML? Good question. Um, there's, there's no science to it other than, like, the t- uh, two days ago, I money lined...
36:35
Excuse me, I run lined the Astros against the Rockies at a prohibitive price. Yesterday I, um, also run lined them because the price was too high in both cases. I w- didn't feel comfortable money lining them.
36:48
But there is no... To be honest with you, it's so brain-dead for me in these, but thank God for these handicaps in baseball, 'cause they are saving me from other bad bets in other sports.
36:57
So it's been great with- without question, but there is no tried and true, um, rule for me on that. Um, it is a value, whatever the value dictates. Uh, Paul Carr joins us now to talk about the global football.
37:10
He comes to us from Topeka, Kansas, @PaulCarr on Twitter, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
37:15
And of course, Paul is the host of the Expected Value podcast and works at True Media Networks, spreading analytics throughout the world. It's Paul Carr, everybody. How you doing, Paul?
37:26
Well, there's no Euro games today during the day or at all, so I'm a little bit confused that I'm not gonna have soccer on- Oh... this afternoon. I have just the thing for you. You got something to do.
37:35
I have just the thing for you. What do you got? I, this afternoon, 'cause it's an afternoon thing, you're in Central Time? So 3- I am...
37:42
3:00 PM, sit down and just enjoy the pageantry of the second round of the NBA draft. How about that? No? Nothing? Nothing? Don't wanna do that? Is, uh, is Danny Manning going number one this year?
37:53
I can't- Uh, does, uh- I'm keeping up. I don't know. I don't think he's available. No. Oh, okay. Uh, okay. Let me, let me ask you, before we get to the Euros, let's talk about, uh, Copa America, where we had an upset.
38:01
Yeah. Right? Venezuela beat, uh- Yeah... beat Mexico, and the US plays tomorrow? They play tonight. They play tonight. Yeah, tonight. Oh, okay. They got a g- Pardon me... they got Panama tonight.
38:11
Panama's kind of been a bogey team a little bit for the US. They play them pretty tough. They knocked them out in the Gold Cup semis last year on penalties. Um, I mean, the US should win this.
38:19
They're minus, I forget, two something to, uh, win this game. I'm not really gonna end up touching this one either way. I do think, you know, I, I kind of hate saying this, like, you get decent prices on Panama.
38:30
I think there's, you know, US is obviously the home team, and you get some favorable lines in that sense. So I kind of would lean that way if I had to play something, but I'm staying away from this game on the whole.
38:38
Well, what I got out of that was you hate America, Paul. That's what I got out of that. Is that j- Yeah, that's pretty much it. That's, uh- Yeah, sure... Falika's rubbing off on me. What can I say? [laughs] Falika.
38:46
Wait, you tell the Falika story real quick? What was it again, in South Africa? 2010 World Cup. Yeah. Brandon Donovan goal against Algeria just, you know, put the US through.
38:53
It's one of the great moments in US soccer history. I'm in the studio. Falika's in the newsroom in Johannesburg. [laughs] I get back from the studio after that, you know, I'm on this high.
39:00
Like, "Ah, this is great," whatever. Falika just kind of looks at me, shakes his head. He's like, "I had Algeria plus half a goal." [laughs] That's great. Of course he did. Of course he did. Of course he did.
39:10
That's our kind of guy. Okay. Um, so to the Euros. Yeah. England, we spoke about it briefly the other day. You have an NFL comp for their struggles. Yeah.
39:22
So they're, England was the pre-tournament favorite or co-favorite with France, depending on your book. But, I mean, they've been really bad offensively.
39:30
They have all this offensive talent that, you know, in the Premier League, you've got Ha- well, Harry Kane's in the Bundesliga now, but Harry Kane, and Phil Foden was the player of the year in the Premier League, and Bukayo Saka is Arsenal's best, best attacker, and there's a whole lot more.
39:43
And they have two goals in three games this tournament, and it's looked worse than that.
39:46
So I keep thinking of, remember early last NFL season, the 49ers hit that three-game losing streak, and I'm not sure they scored 20 points at all, and they lost to, it was, like, the Browns, and I don't re- you know, they just looked bad.
39:59
Yeah. Even though they had McCaffrey and Deebo and Aiyuk and all these weapons. So I kind of feel like England is like that. The difference is, I think we all kind of thought Shanahan would figure things out.
40:11
I don't, not sure people think that Gareth Southgate, England's manager, knows how to figure this out, because it was a problem three years ago at Euros.
40:17
It was pretty much a problem at the World Cup a year and a half ago, and it's still an issue here. Just hasn't figured out how to use all this attacking talent to its maximum ability.
40:26
So a 49ers comparison, but not really, is what you're saying. Yeah, to a point. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Just the, the lull reminds me of that.
40:32
I'm just not so sure there's the upside, at least the way, you know, with the current English coaching setup. All right.
40:37
So you point out something about the bracket right now as we go into the knockout stage that is probably the headline about this tournament. Yeah.
40:44
Which is pre-flop numbers and the bracket, it ain't exactly, uh, balanced. Yeah. And we knew this going in.
40:52
This is, you know, part of the reason the prices were on some of the title favorites, but you have four of the five favorites are in, I'll call it the top half of the bracket.
40:59
You have Spain, Germany, Portugal, France, and sometimes this happens because, you know, a team stumbles and they're runner-up instead of they winning the group.
41:06
This was really the draw itself, 'cause Spain, Germany, Portugal, France all won their groups. So they're all, you know, where they quote "should be." Uh, but that just so happens to be the top half of the bracket.
41:16
So the bottom has England. This is the, I think I said it before, like, England make the semis and not be very good at all, and part of it was because they have a relatively easy draw.
41:26
Now, they could get Italy or even Switzerland in the quarters, which is not a cake, but they don't have any of those other four of the five favorites in their half of the bracket.
41:33
So things look good for England, even though they haven't been very good at all. Okay. You have a couple plays in individual games here. Uh, one to m- uh, excuse me, one on Saturday, one on Sunday.
41:43
So let's start with Saturday. Yeah. So I'll give the standard disclaimer first. These are knockout games, so most of your bets are going to be 90-minute bets, meaning just through regulation.
41:54
So if you're playing a team plus half a goal, that's 90 minutes. You get to extra time and it's tied, you've won regardless of what happens. Uh, these two picks I have, though, are to advance.
42:02
So this means it doesn't matter if they win outright, if they win in extra time, if they advance on penalties. That's gonna cash the bet either way.
42:11
So, uh, I have Switzerland to advance against Italy on Saturday at, at plus 120. Uh, Italy also hasn't looked very good.
42:18
They don't really have a reliable number nine to score goals up top, and Switzerland is not a High ceiling team, but they always, they've made six straight major tournament knockout rounds, either at Euros or the World Cup.
42:30
So they always kind of get here, and maybe they'll win a game and that's about it. But they just kind of know who they are.
42:35
They're kind of that reliable, uh, I don't know, mid-major or lower, you know, major conference team that you, you know what they are, they know what they are, and they can execute it fairly well, even if they don't have the high ceiling of, of the top five, six teams.
42:49
Uh, so yeah, Italy's struggling. Switzerland, you know, a very competent team, which kind of feels right for Switzerland in general. I, I just like them to advance at plus 120.
42:58
So this is, again, the disclaimer at the front is if you're betting sides or if you're betting on the three-way, it's a 90-minute bet, but to advance is you win any which way. Correct. Yeah. Okay.
43:07
Yeah, so the prices will look a little bit different. So if you hear one thing, someone says something, but you just gotta make sure you got the right bet.
43:14
Because if you wanted Switzerland to win the game outright, you're gonna get like plus 240 or something like that- Right... to win in 90 minutes, but to advance at plus 120, because it can go any way you want.
43:23
All right, and your advance on, uh, your to advance bet on Sunday is? I have Slovakia to advance over England. Wow. Now, this is price-based.
43:32
I will say there are a lot, I've seen from like plus 350 to plus 490 out there this morning. So obviously I took the plus 490. That's the one you wanna find. Uh, again, this is the price.
43:43
So it's like, you know, one out of six, a little better than that times. Is Slovakia gonna get past England? I think so. This is a fate of England. Again, two goals in three games.
43:52
You can choose your bad offensive metric. They had the fifth fewest shots in the group stage, the third fewest expected goals. They only outshot their opponents by three.
44:01
Yeah, England's going to want to grind out in all likelihood like a one-nil type of win, and then you're trying to do that, your margin for error is obviously slim.
44:08
So this is kind of the same logic as taking the England-Slovenia draw earlier in the week. It's gonna be close.
44:15
This is a, you know, average-ish European team they're playing, but England hasn't proven to be a lot better than that so far. All right. So Switzerland to advance versus Italy, plus 120 on Saturday.
44:24
Slovakia to advance, Paul's number's plus 490. Try to get the best number you can here, versus England on Sunday. And the other thing, of course, is he hates America. He likes the value on Panama. Ah. Yeah. Yeah.
44:35
Needs to wear a flag shirt next time or something. [laughs] That's right. Gotta prove it to us, Paul. Thank you, Paul. Appreciate it as always, man. You bet. Have a good weekend. Paul Carr.
44:44
My NBA draft story next with Crack. [upbeat music]
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