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Jun 28, 2024
A Numbers Game | June 28, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | June 28, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:47
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it this morning. It is Gil Alexander.
0:19
It is Wyatt Tomchek in for the vacationing Kelly Billings for one more day. You made it, man. I made it. It's been a, it's been a fun week, challenging week, but we overcame it. Oh, it wasn't challenging for me.
0:30
You were great. It was challenging for you? No. Yeah. I'm just, I just like to- Okay... you know, overstate it a little bit. [laughs] That's all right. It's gonna happen. It's been a lot of fun.
0:36
It's been a lot of fun this week. Was it that bad, Wyatt? Was it that bad? No. No. You know what? Um- Like you said- Yeah... it was a very underrated sports week.
0:43
It was, and continues to be, because, uh, momentarily, uh, I'm gonna go over the Wimbledon draw. The Wimbledon draw came out in the middle of the night, 2:00 AM Pacific, 5:00 AM Eastern.
0:53
I don't see quarter odds anywhere yet, but I will give you my reaction to the four quarters on both the men's and the women's side momentarily. S- uh, we will have Tim Murray on to talk NFL with us here momentarily.
1:07
Chris Falica will join us to talk, uh, all things soccer, including the Americans. Oh, boy. USA not eliminated by Panama, but their backs are against the proverbial wall. Gotta beat Uruguay out right now.
1:20
Uh, we'll talk to Chris about that, and college football. He's got college football thoughts.
1:23
Jordan Sherwood on UFC 303, Jason Weingarten, and Luke Swain, first time ever on a numbers game, um, not Luke Swain, but Luke Swain talking about, you ready for this? The NHL draft. Not making that up.
1:36
Luke did so well in the NBA, always does well in the NBA, but he's also an NHL guy, and if you're at DraftKings, there are an abundance of NHL props that you could bet. So we'll talk to him later on the show.
1:45
And of course, we will update the Houston Astros most June wins scenarios. That's coming up on the show as well. Can't wait for that. Uh, okay, let's start with, uh, Wimbledon. Can we start with Wimbledon? Wimbledon.
1:59
Uh, Fortnite at Wimbledon. Still the most prestigious, I would say, of all tennis' majors. Um,
2:05
you know, I don't know if the players would say that's the one they want the most, but if you're talking about prestige, that is. The only one on grass, of course, a third of the year.
2:13
And the way that they do the, the draw at Wimbledon, it is sort of well known that at least historically on the men's side, 'cause this is, this is where the sort of funny part is, and by funny, I mean not funny at all.
2:28
Um, they're the only tournament in the world which adopts a unique method to determine the seeds. It's not an arbitrary method. Um, it is actually by mathematical formula.
2:39
I won't bore you for too long with that, but essentially it's, uh, ATP points on the men's side accumulated by a player until right before the tournament, and then, uh, up until, I guess the, basically right before the Monday of the tournament, and then it's that plus total grass points specifically accumulated by a player the preceding year, plus 75% of grass court points in the grass court event where a player had achieved his best result.
3:03
It's, it's a whole thing. I won't bore you any longer. Anyway, that's how the men did it, have done it for, since the beginning of time.
3:09
The women, at least until the last decade, they were very open about the fact that they didn't do the women's draw that way.
3:16
It was way more arbit- [laughs] way more arbitrary, which, you know, of our 2024 sensibilities is like, uh, for real? I thought you guys, like, did it differently? So anyway, that's the history of the Wimbledon seed.
3:27
But so they came out tonight again. Um, it was early morning London time, 5:00 AM, uh, Eastern, 2:00 AM Pacific here.
3:35
So the only thing I see so far is, besides the outrights, is in some spots, Advocate Skirmish has odds to make the final. But we're looking for a quarter odds.
3:45
And so I just wanna go through the four quarters on the men's side and then the women's side and give you my reaction to where I think your bets ought to be considered in each of those.
3:54
Let's do it with hypothetical without the odds, 'cause we're doing this too early Friday morning. Um, and I got Jrod on the case, our, our buddy Jrod. As soon as they come out anywhere, w- uh, he will let me know.
4:04
So on the men's side, Q1, which is Jannik Sinner's quarter. Jannik Sinner's the number one overall seed here. And by the way, Novak Djokovic is a go.
4:12
Um, for all intents and purposes, I guess there's still time for him to pull out, but it looks like he's playing. Um, and he has a thumbs up to it, so he's playing. But Q1 is Jannik Sinner's, uh, quarter.
4:23
Nobody's beating Jannik Sinner.
4:24
I would say that Grigor Dimitrov will go far in that quarter, maybe even meet him, um, in the, in the actual qu- in the actual quarter finals themselves, but I don't think he's getting by Sinner.
4:36
So Sinner will win that quarter, uh, but there's no bet there because he is, uh, not worth it. It's not worth a bet there in terms of how short he is.
4:44
Um, the second quarter, Q2, which is Carlos Alcaraz's quarter, uh, he is the number three overall seed, I believe. Uh, but that's his quarter. Q2 is Carlos Alcaraz's quarter. There, there actually might be a bet. Um,
5:03
if you want a long shot there, well, a long, long shot would be Alexander Bublik by the numbers, but the real play in Q2 is Tommy Paul, the American. I think Carlos Alcaraz could be vulnerable. Um,
5:19
Tommy Paul, men's Q2, let's wait for that number. That could be a favorable draw for Tommy Paul. When Carlos Alcaraz is not as his, at the top of his game, he is not quite the player that he was last year.
5:31
So Tommy Paul in Q2, I think is worth a look. Uh, Q3 is Alexander Zverev's quarter, Sasha Zverev's quarter. He's the fourth overall seed. I think there's a possible play on Jack Draper.
5:43
Talking about grass numbers here and grass performance here in the short grass season. So Jack Draper, and this is the problem with grass, there's not nearly as robust data.
5:51
You know, when you're talking about year-long data, you're only talking about five, seven weeks of tennis. Um, but Tommy Paul, Q2, Jack Draper worth a look at Q3 in the Sasha Zverev quarter.
6:03
And then Q4, which is Novak Djokovic's quarter, the number two overall, I do think, and we talked about this on the podcast with Drew Dinsick yesterday and with Zachary Cohen, um, Hubert Hurkacz 13 to 1 and Alex de Minaur at 17 to 1 are both live
6:18
So four plays total on the men's side, none in Q1. Tommy Paul in Q2, Jack Draper in Q3, Hubert Hurkacz and Alex de Minaur in Q4.
6:29
Now, I can't say they're official yet because I have to see the numbers on them, but those are the four players that I think we ought to be looking at based on the way the draw landed on the men's side, which as I mentioned, is more mathematical historically than it is on the women's side.
6:42
Now, the women's side is much more of a jumble. Remember, this is not clay, where Iga reigns supreme, where she is the Rafael Nadal of, uh, women's tennis. This is grass, where she's never won a tournament.
6:54
She's won 22 tournaments at-- by-- and she just turned 23 years old, none of them on grass.
6:59
Um, but this is an interesting year because this precedes the Olympics, which is back at Philippe-Chatrier at the, at the, uh, fr- uh, where's, where the French Open was played, um, at Roland-Garros.
7:11
So she will be a massive favorite to win the Olympics. This is this little transitional thing now in this particular year because of that quirk. And so she plays sort of with house money.
7:22
Does that mean she's gonna be loose and play with no pressure on her and play great, or does that mean that she's going to be like, "Eh, whatever, if I lose, I lose"?
7:30
Uh, she's in Q1, Iga Swiatek, the world number one, but that quarter is loaded. She did not get a favorable quarter, and I wouldn't be surprised.
7:38
I haven't looked, but I, I would imagine her outrights drifted a bit on this. Um, she's got Siniakova in her quarter. Uh, she has the winner of Tomljanovic-Ostapenko. Oh, Jelena Ostapenko.
7:50
So if Iga got to the, what is this? To the rou- the round of, uh, is this the quarters themselves or the round of, uh, 16, I believe? She would have to play Ostapenko.
7:58
Yeah, the fourth round, she would have to play Ostapenko. Good God. Freaking Collins is in her quarter. Beatriz Haddad Maia, who's a clay court specialist, but also has great ga- uh, grass numbers, is in her quarter.
8:09
So is the defending champion, Marketa Vondrousova. In all of those folks are in Q1. Marketa Vondrousova, who won Wimbledon out of nowhere last year. Um, that is a tough quarter. By the way, trivia question.
8:24
Uh, Iga Swiatek is 500 or better against every player on the women's tour except one, and against that player, she is O and four lifetime. Who is that player? Uh, you could get 50 guesses. Serena Williams. [laughs] No.
8:39
No. Uh, uh, that would be Jelena Ostapenko, who's in this quarter, and is always, it just seems like almost every tournament she has to play Jelena Ostapenko in the round of 16 or might possibly here as well.
8:49
So that's a tough draw for Iga, uh, even though I have an outright on her. Q2, I believe there-- So, so no real opportunity in Q1. It's too vague for me. Just like Q1 is, is sinners on the men's side, can't bet there.
9:01
But Q2, I do think there is a bet. That is Elena Rybakina's, uh, quarter, and I think Rybakina's very vulnerable.
9:09
She has pulled out of four different tournaments already this year, including a couple for gastrointestinal issues. She pulled out of the last tournament she was in. Uh, could she make a run?
9:18
She's a Wimbledon champion from a few years back. Could she make a run? Of course. But I think Jessie Pegula, the American, is worth a look in Q2 when those numbers come out later this morning.
9:30
Jessie Pegula, who has great, uh, grass numbers as well, the world number five. I think she's worth a look for Q2. Uh, if you wanted a long shot, Katie Boulter, but I would stick to Pegula.
9:41
Uh, ladies Q3, which is Sabalenka's quarter, I don't really think there's anyone there I would bet. Mirra Andreeva is tempting. Um, Emma Raducanu's playing well.
9:51
But man, Emma Raducanu's got a tough first round match against Alexandrova. That's no gimme.
9:56
And then I think the other bet, besides Pegula in Q2, I think the real, the real is the headline on the women's side for me right now in terms of how the draw worked out. And I talked about this on the podcast yesterday.
10:07
Zach and I are aligned on this. Q4, which is Coco Gauff's quarter, that's where Madison Keys is. I think Madison Keys is g- phenomenal grass numbers. I think she's live for a quarter.
10:19
I think she's live to get to a final. But I would say quarter price on Madison Keys. So just in review, men's side, Q2, let's look for a price on Tommy Paul. Q3, let's look for a price on, a price on Jack Draper.
10:30
Q4, we'll look for a price on both Hurkacz and de Minaur. Then on the ladies' side, Q2, looking for a price on Jessie Pegula, and Q4, looking for a price on Madison Keys.
10:40
That's the pre-- That's the post-draw pre-odds update on Wimbledon, if you will. So that's a, a right moment in time. Wish we could do this later, but oh well, that's where we are. You gonna bet any of these? Nothing?
10:54
No? No? I'll follow you. Okay. Thank you very much. I appreciate that. When does, uh, when does this start again? Uh- This start-- Oh, good question. I should have mentioned. Yeah.
11:01
This starts on Monday, England time, so it will be Sunday in the middle of the night for us. Gotcha. Do you-- Which one's more difficult for you to watch, Australian Open or- Oh, the Australian Open is. Okay.
11:13
In terms, in terms of, like, your sleep schedule? Yeah. Oh, it's the Australian Open. Okay. Your entire life is, you know, 180 degrees turned around. So there you go. We'll come back.
11:22
Uh, we will talk to Tim Murray, his football thoughts on the heels of the, our VSiN NFL betting guide being out, released just yesterday, in case you missed it, vsin.com/guide.
11:33
Gotta be a VSiN Pro subscriber at vsin.com/pro. He'll give his football thoughts, his NFL thoughts on the other side. Numbers game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:42
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13:00
To get 13 months of VSiN Pro for just $199, get instant access to our all-new NFL betting guide. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Gil Alexander, Wyatt Tomchek here from the D, uh, bar counter that is.
13:13
Uh, we get tweets at Beating The Book, "Ray Pierce, do you dare talk election odds? Uh, Biden was, uh, two to one, Newsom 29 to one this time yesterday. Now it's plus 480 and plus 880.
13:24
Trump's odds stayed about the same." "I can't stand any of the three," Ray Pierce says. "I just find it an interesting move." Yeah, we, we discuss, uh, pl- uh, elections here on this show historically.
13:33
Apolitically speaking, I find all of this movement fascinating.
13:37
And, uh, Dave Mason over at an offshore, uh, you know that offshore, um, wagering on the internet, wager on the internet, he, uh, he, he tweeted out that, and I wanna get this right as well, that in terms of the move, uh, Democratic side, Biden from plus 225 to plus 250, Newsom from 11 to one and nine to one, and for the- now you, uh, get a different one that says
14:04
Biden min- let's see what's here. Yeah, that from minus, okay, Biden minus 150, Newsom plus 275, Harris plus 575, Whitmer 20 to one, Clinton 28 to one.
14:13
It's gonna be fascinating to see what the Democrats do after, how could I say it, uh, kindly, an uneven performance by the president last night. Uh, we'll track it as it goes deeper into the season.
14:25
Um, this is from, one second here, this is also from doop, doop, doop doot, Tyler Kreenik, "Gil, first time, long time. What's the best way to bet baseball? Immerse yourself in the culture. What's the second-best way?
14:37
Tail Gil's most wins for the month bet. Riding with you on Houston this month, uh, at William Hill Caesars. Are there hedge opportunities at this point, or let it ride?"
14:45
Um, we're gonna get into that after, uh, we talk to Tim here. I wouldn't hedge yet, even if you want to at all, but I certainly wouldn't do it right now. We'll get into all the scenarios.
14:54
And then teasers and parlays, "Sorry I was late to this, but listening to the pod from yesterday of a numbers game, your story with Crack, uh, reminded me of what happened with James Salinas." Yes, at a book in Colorado.
15:03
That was a Barstool book. Uh, "The number moving situation seemed identical. I remember him coming on the show and discussing." You're absolutely right. That was very similar.
15:12
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he is the co-host of VSiN Prime Time. He does it with JBT every night. He's from the DMV. That's extra points. It's Tim Murray, everybody. How you doing, Timmy? What's up, Gil?
15:24
Uh, I'm fired up, man. I'm with you on Houston. Uh, so we have a big series this weekend, huh? Oh. Houston versus the Metropolitans, baby. Are you on Houston? Are, for most wins in the month? Most wins in the month.
15:37
I also took a little Dodgers. So Dodgers have 15 wins, the Mets have 15 wins, and the Astros have 15 wins, so I have two of the three. Well, I guess the Orioles I think have 15 wins too, but, uh- They do.
15:49
They do indeed, yep... but they have 11 losses, right? And depending on what house, I bet it at Circa, and I think their tiebreaker is least losses. Uh, so yeah, it's gonna be a, gonna be a fun weekend.
16:00
What, uh, what number did you get at Circa? Uh, Houston 11 to one. Oh, you didn't bet it at the top, did you? Oh, you must have bet it after me then, 'cause I, uh, I got s- Yeah...
16:08
I got 17 to one at Houston and then 25 to one at, uh, William Hill Caesars. We'll get into it next. I got all the scenarios coming up. But that's- Mets were, Mets were, like, 300 to one, Gil. [laughs] Were they?
16:18
Oh, I didn't know that. 300 to one? Yeah, 'cause they were playing so poorly. Yeah, that was at least their opener. I don't know where it closed. Oh, man.
16:23
But I, I went back and I looked up, uh, the initial post from Circa, and I think the Mets were 300 to one to have the best record in June. Wow. That I did not remember. That's unbelievable.
16:35
[laughs] I'm telling you, Grimace is gonna get a statue at Citi Field. The Grimets, baby. [laughs] Stop it. Stop it. Three-game set at Citi Field. We'll get into the match-ups coming up as well.
16:44
All right, uh, Tim, you are, uh, I don't know, you're most associated with college sports, I guess. Yep.
16:49
Before we get into your couple picks from the NFL betting guide, 'cause I wanna get into a division pick you have and also a Rookie of the Year play, can you give us your more, your mo- your most outlying college football opinion, at least as you see it in June?
17:03
Um, from just a, from a standpoint, I, I w- I won't go too crazy on this, but I, I think people are, are failing to recognize what's going to happen in December, where coming into this year, Gil, the four highest power rated teams in pretty much everyone's power ratings in some order is Ohio State, Georgia, Oregon, and Texas, and
17:25
two of those teams at minimum are going to be playing the first weekend in, or the third weekend in December, right? In order to get a bye- You have to win your conference championship, and Texas is now in the SEC. Yeah.
17:38
Oregon's now in the Big 10. So I, I think people are kinda overlooking that factor, uh, that- Tim, you know- You know- Tim, even as you say it, I'm, like, shaking my head. I'm like, "Oh, yeah. Okay." Yeah?
17:48
"Say that again. Yeah." Right? Yeah. So, like, you know, because, once again, full disclosure, and many people on VSiN are gonna roll their eyes and, and shake their heads like, "I know, Tim.
17:58
I'm a Notre Dame guy," right? And everyone saying, "Oh, how could Notre Dame agree to this? They're not going to be able to get a bye." Well, neither is Oregon or Ohio State.
18:08
One of those teams, mathematically, Gil, cannot get a bye. Yeah. Same goes for Georgia and Texas. So it, it's gonna be really interesting. And the winner of all of this, to be honest, is the Big 12, in my opinion.
18:20
The Big 12 is a conference where their best team is probably Utah, in, like, the 15 to 20 range.
18:27
The winner of the Big 12 is going to get a bye to the quarterfinals, because you have to, once again, be a conference champion. So it's gonna be really interesting.
18:37
I think it's just a matter of time before the SEC and the Big 10 step in and say, "Yeah, whoa, whoa, whoa. I, I don't agree with this," and, you know, make some tweaks. But to me, I think that's really interesting.
18:45
And I'm gonna do a deep dive on the podcast, uh, this weekend, Gil, because I think this also opens up the Heisman race.
18:52
You know, with more teams making the playoff, I think now there's more quarterbacks that are gonna be in contention for the playoff, big time games, and I think that's where it gets a little interesting from a, from a Heisman standpoint, where you could look at a, you know, Tennessee Nico quarterback, Emilien, uh, at around 18 to 1 at DraftKings.
19:11
Uh, you know, so I, I think from a Heisman standpoint it gets a little more interesting, especially this year where there is not a, you know, Caleb Williams coming back from a year removed of winning the Heisman Trophy.
19:22
I mean, Carson Beck is, is your favorite, but he's around 8 to 9 to 1.
19:27
So I, I think the Heisman race is a, is an interesting one, and I think you could take some, you know, decent cracks out there and have a legit shot of, of having someone who's gonna be in New York City in December.
19:37
All right. Let's go to the National Football League. You, uh- Yeah... had some plays in the NFL betting guide. Again, available at vsin.com/guide, vsin.com/pro to become a pro subscriber.
19:46
Um, I promise everybody this is not why we had Tim on the show, but please, sir, take it away for offensive rookie of the year. Come on, baby. This is 2012 all over again, Gil. [laughs] You gotta be fired up. Let's go.
19:58
Uh, I, I, I, yeah, when I wrote it up, uh, I didn't anticipate going in on Jayden Daniels, but I just looked at the price at DraftKings at plus 550. I said, "You know what?
20:10
It's pretty tasty for a guy that's gonna be the day one starter in Washington," even though they haven't announced it.
20:15
You've got a offensive coordinator that was brought in specifically to work with him in Kliff Kingsbury. Would I like the offensive line to be better? Sure. Is this team very good? Not really.
20:26
[laughs] But you look at Terry McLaurin. I would like to see more from Jahan Dotson. Uh, they went out and got, you know, Ben Sinnett from Kansas State in the second round. They wanna put weapons around Jayden Daniels.
20:39
Uh, they brought in Austin Ekeler, who I think will be a really nice piece coming out of the backfield there to pair with Brian Robinson.
20:45
So when we're talking about offensive rookie of the year and a guy that is, has been as ele- electrifying, to use a word that was talked about RG III back in 2012, as Jayden Daniels was, I thought a f- plus 550, it was a, it was a f- more than fair price.
21:00
Look, I know that- I agree... you know, Matt Brown and Femi made the case for Bo Nix, and J.J. McCarthy is, is an interesting one.
21:06
But I think Jayden Daniels, the skill set, what they're putting around him there in Washington at plus 550 is a, is a very intriguing price for offensive rookie of the year.
21:15
I'm 100% with you, to no one's surprise, on Jayden Daniels. I, I, I d- [laughs] I, I've said that, uh, Skins have the l- the biggest volatility of outcomes this year. It could go really well. It could be a wild card.
21:27
It could go really bad if they get the kid beat up. Um, I love where you're like, "Do they have a great offensive line? They do not. Are they, are they really good? They are not."
21:34
Um, but that should be fascinating to follow. Uh, okay, this one, and by the way, it's the incomparable Terry McLaurin, just a, like, one correction on that.
21:42
Uh, okay, so it's, this is not as sexy a play from you, but nonetheless- Correct... you made a play in the NFC South. Easiest schedule in the NFL, Gil. They're gonna be a favorite, I believe, in 14 of their 17 games.
21:55
Weeks two and three they'll be an underdog, so you could maybe wait to play this. The Atlanta Falcons are winning the NFC South, and I know last year it was the Buccaneers.
22:05
This team is good enough and should win this division. And, in Kirk Cousins I trust. I know he's coming off of the Achilles tear.
22:14
I would have absolutely rather them select someone who was going to play in, in the eighth overall selection than a backup quarterback. But I look at the weapons down there.
22:23
I look at the new offensive scheme with Zach Robinson coming in from LA. Give me the Falcons to win the NFC South minus 115, uh, at DraftKings. Okay. Tim, thank you. Appreciate it.
22:35
VSiN Prime Time, weekdays 6:00 PM with JBT and Tim. And you can follow Tim at 1TimMurray on Twitter. That's the number 1, Tim Murray. Let's go, Tim. Let's get it done this year. Come on. See ya, Gil.
22:46
[laughs] Tim Murray, everybody, from the DMV. We'll come back. All those Astros scenarios and the pitching matchups this weekend next. [upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:04
Don't forget to check out our website, vsin.com, all the best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles. It's all there. Betting guide information, all there at vsin.com.
23:13
If you look at the homepage, Zach Cohen on Wimbledon predictions. Is it worth betting on Novak Djokovic? is the headline for his article. Uh, Adam Burke, horse racing, NASCAR. Adam Burke all over the place.
23:23
Lou Ficicaro on UFC 303. Uh, Johnny Lazarus on Stanley Cup futures for 2025. Tyler Shoemaker on the WNBA. It's all there at vsin.com. Wow, how many sports did I just mention right there off the top?
23:36
It is a, it's a sneaky good time of the year sports-wise early All I, all I heard was NASCAR. All you heard was NASCAR? All I heard was NASCAR. You're a big NASCAR guy? I do.
23:42
I, d- and something that me and my dad kinda bonded over- Oh, nice... when I was, when I was younger, so, uh, I don't have a favorite driver. Dale Earnhardt Jr. was my guy. I used to have, like, all the, all the stuff.
23:52
My walls were painted, uh- With his car. I used to wear the Budweiser stuff to elementary school and get in trouble for wearing the Budweiser stuff at school, but- Wow... it, it is a lot of fun. Okay. I enjoy it.
24:02
Um, by the way, uh, Wyatt, there's a, uh, there's a game on behind you. It's a Colts-Jets game. Um, it, it's live. Uh, don't, don't be det- d- don't be mistaken by the old school looking graphics.
24:13
They're just trying something. Uh, the Jets are big underdogs. Uh, they got this quarterback, Joe Namath. I'm gonna take the Jets on the money line. You take the other side of that? No? Uh, I don't know. Nothing on it?
24:21
Okay. I mean, you know, I, I, I think that Joe Namath is... You know, he's, he's from Alabama. He's got that winning culture. I, I like what he, he can produce out there. Damn, couldn't get it by him.
24:30
Uh, okay, what are you looking most forward to on the show here? Um, Astros scenarios or Luke Swain later, who, let's face it, Luke's picks were fantastic, and that's all we care about.
24:41
But Luke's ability to pronounce some of those basketball names was not there. How is he going to do with the hockey names? Gosh, the hock- If, if there's any spelling mistakes, my apologies.
24:50
I tried my b- [laughs] I, like, triple checked this. These are some tough, tough names. What were you saying it reminded you of on Saturday Night Live? What was it?
24:55
Oh, the, there's a Chance the Rapper skit where he's, he's- [laughs]... usually the basketball sideline reporter. Yes.
25:00
But they ask him to do the NHL game, and there's one s- he, he looks at the guy's name, he goes, "Ah, that's a lot of vowels. I'm not gonna attempt that."
25:06
[laughs] We'll get that with Luke Swain later when we talk NHL draft. All right, for those who have tailed the Astros bet, and by the way, judging by Twitter, it's a lot more than I thought this month.
25:14
It was tons and tons of folks in March, April, probably a little less in May, but we, we have a bunch here in June, um, for the Astros. 25 to 1 is the number I got 'em at at William Hill Caesars, 17 to 1 at Circa.
25:27
Um, so let's go. This is, again, right now, the current standings going into the final three days of the month, the final weekend. Everybody in baseball's got three games left. Um, this, these are the current standings.
25:39
The Mets are 15 and 6, the Astros are 15 and 7. Our Astros, 15 and 7. Remember, the Mets had the fewest games scheduled in the month of June at 24, and the Astros had the second fewest at 25.
25:52
Think about that when betting these. Dodgers, 15 and 8. They're in third. And the Orioles, with a win yesterday, uh, they are 15 and 11. Those are the four teams with 15 wins. Remember, this is most wins.
26:05
Um, which one do you wanna do first? Do you wanna do Circa first, or you wanna do William Hill Caesars first? You texted me William Hill Caesars, so yeah, I'm gonna- Let's do William Hill Caesars first.
26:11
Okay, so this is the one where we have the 25 to 1. Now, this is a dead heat shop. If you bet it at William Hill Caesars, dead- there are no tiebreakers. It'll just dead heat. We hate a dead heat, by the way.
26:22
That's not something we enjoy. Um, but here's the deal. Here's the scenario. Um, the Astros have a three-game set at the Mets.
26:31
The Mets will not be part of any of these scenarios because the matchup this weekend essentially takes care of itself.
26:38
I'm gonna talk Astros here from the Astros' perspective, 'cause that's our bet, but really all of this could apply to the Mets as well. Okay, so that said, on the, in the dead heat shop, let's just start with this.
26:50
If the Astros get swept by the Mets or if they lose the series two to one, we're out. That's the first thing we need to know.
26:59
So at the very least, at the very least here, we gotta win the series, either go two and one or three and O.
27:05
If at William Hill Caesars, at this particular, uh, with these particular dead heat rules, if we go, uh, three and O, and I wanna g- I wanna get this, uh, right in terms of from, uh, from shop to shop here.
27:19
But if we go three and O, then the only thing that could happen is we get dead heated. If the Dodgers and/or Orioles also go three and O, then we dead heat with either the Dodgers and/or the Orioles.
27:34
So those dead heat rules would apply. If, if the Astros sweep the Mets, but the Dodgers also sweep the Giants at San Francisco and/or Baltimore sweeps Texas at home, then we would dead heat.
27:46
But if we go three and O, we being Houston here, and Dodgers and Orioles don't, win outright. The Astros would win it outright. Okay. Where it gets quirky, so we got the one and two and O and three we lose.
27:58
If we go three and O, the worst we can do is dead heat at William Hill Caesars. Where it gets quirky is if the Astros win the series against the Mets two to one.
28:05
If that happens, we would also lose if either the Dodgers or Orioles go three and O, 'cause they would have more wins despite all their losses, right? Doesn't matter. They'd have more wins.
28:16
And then the biggest dead heat scenario of them all would be if the Astros go two and one, two and one, win the series, but don't sweep at City Field, and then we have the possibility, we being the Astros, then we'd have the possibility with our bet of dead heating up to, are you ready for this, seven different teams.
28:37
Uh, if the Dodgers went two and one, if Baltimore went two and one, but not only that, we'd have to go back to the teams that won 14 games.
28:45
If Boston swept the Padres at home, if Seattle swept the Twins at home three to nothing, if Milwaukee swept the Cubs at home three to nothing, if Arizona swept the Athletics at Arizona, possible, three and O, and if St.
29:01
Louis swept the Reds, I think that series already started, three and O, right? Also, Baltimore, Texas also started as well, so we'll be completing the sweep, if you will. St.
29:09
Louis's case, it would not be a sweep, but if they win the next three, all of those teams, if the Astros go two and one,
29:16
Baltimore, Dodgers two and one, and the rest of those teams I just mentioned go three and O, it's a scrum of a dead heat. So again, one and two and O and three we lose. Three and O, the worst we can do is dead heat.
29:25
Only the Dodgers and Baltimore can tie us with similar three and O performances over the weekend. Two and one is where it gets dicey, and it's a massive scrum of a possible dead heat.
29:34
That's William Hill Caesars where dead heat rules apply. At Circa, where I have them at 17 to 1, the rules are much more precise.
29:43
Fewest wins is the number one tiebreaker, and best run differential is the number two tiebreaker.
29:49
Now, similarly, if Houston gets swept by the Mets or loses the series two to one, meaning they go one and two, we lose no matter what. So one and two, O and three, we're done, both William Hill, Caesars, and Circa.
30:03
If we go three and O- At Circa, we win. We don't even have to watch the scoreboard because we would win on tiebreaker one, fewest wins. If the Astros sweep the Mets, Circa is a winner on the Astros.
30:18
Again, where it gets quirky, not quite as quirky, but is if the Astros win the series against the Mets, they go two and one against the Mets, but they don't sweep. Then we also win if the Dodgers go two and one at best
30:34
and Baltimore goes two and one at best. Then Houston would still win the tiebreaker, same scenario, for fewest losses.
30:42
Obviously, we'd lose though, right, if Baltimore or the Dodgers went three and O and Houston only went two and one.
30:49
The, the other, one other quirk to this that is probably a little less obvious, if Houston goes two and one, Dodgers and Orioles don't go better than two and one either,
31:00
uh, and then the Red Sox go three and O, the Red Sox are the 114 win team that has, um, the ability to catch the, the Astros in the loss column. If they went three and O against San Diego at Fenway,
31:17
Boston could conceivably catch the Astros if their net run differential over the last three games, here's where it gets deep, uh, would exceed eight plus 18.
31:29
They're 18 runs down behind the Astros in the run differential tiebreaker number two. So it's very unlikely, but who knows? It's Fenway, you never know.
31:38
The Red Sox go crazy in a sweep, and if Houston goes two and one, then we would have to contend with the Red Sox as well. That would really suck to lose it on, uh, on run differential. Um, let me just say this though.
31:49
If anybody out there has the Red Sox, the Red Sox are the unlucky team here. The Red Sox had a game scuttled on Thursday. Thursday? No, on Wednesday against the Blue Jays.
31:58
That game had started, but rain swept it away, and they're only making it up in August.
32:04
So we would've had to have contend with the Red Sox in a much more serious fashion, but because of that, they lost a game they couldn't get a win in in this month. So those are all the scenarios. I hope that makes sense.
32:14
Really, what we're rooting for is three and O to really put the strangleh- stranglehold on this. Two and one, we're gonna need a little help elsewhere. One and two, O and three, we lose.
32:24
Now, as far as the match-ups are concerned this weekend, Houston has Ronel Blanco going tonight, uh, in their match up against, uh, Jose Quintana, and that is a Houston minus 115.
32:35
Houston is a slight favorite in this ballgame. You're like, "Well, w- I, Ronel Blanco, he's, he's, seems like he's gonna throw a no-hitter every time out." 2.34 ERA. Here's the one trouble with Ronel Blanco.
32:46
He has the lowest BABIP in all of baseball, batting average on balls in play. He is by far, has by far been the luckiest pitcher in all of baseball when it comes to that.
32:58
So while I'm very optimistic about Ronel Blanco, I just hope the gr- the regression doesn't come tonight. Let's put it that way. You can regress all you want after tonight, Ronel Blanco, but give me one more,
33:11
and Houston ought to get it done if that is staved off, that regression is staved off for one more night. Uh, Saturday, also in favor of Houston, Framber Valdez going up against Tyler McGill. That's a Houston advantage.
33:22
Sunday, where rain is forecast. Uh-oh. Gonna have to get through rain on... Rain is pushing back, but it's still on Sunday, and we haven't pushed it through the whole weekend yet.
33:32
Luis Severino's gonna go for the Mets, so the Mets would have the starting pitching advantage on Sunday, assuming the rain doesn't destroy us. By the way, if we lose on a rain out, oh my God.
33:45
Anyway, we'll be back here Monday either very happy or sad. We look forward to that. Chris Fallica on the other side. The Bear, college football, soccer next.
33:53
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:08
Back on A Numbers Game right here from Bar Canada at the D, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Wyatt Tomchek. Um, do not forget, once again, we talked about it all day yesterday.
34:18
We were all footballed out yesterday, but our NFL betting guide is out. Uh, make this NFL season your best ever with our all new VSiN NFL betting guide packed with everything you need to bet the NFL smarter.
34:28
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34:42
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34:52
That's vsin.com/guide. Gil Alexander, we get tweets at Beating The Book. Always appreciate the, uh, feedback. This is from do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do. This is from Rydako.
35:03
He says, "I hear y'all on Keys, but she looked poor in set three today. Does that have you, uh, reconsidering?"
35:09
No, because when you get to these, these tune-up tournaments right before a major, this is also kind of true in golf, but really in tennis it's true 'cause of the physical exertion.
35:19
If you're down a break in the third, i- i- i- in your head, you, there's probably a lot of players who are like, "Uh, why don't I just pack it in at this point and prep my body for, uh, for the grind of Wimbledon?"
35:30
So I, I'm not too worried about that. Trip Tepper, um, "Oh, there is a book. Uh, Advocate Skirmish," he says, "uh, does have Wim- Wimbledon odds for quarters." He said, "Pagoul is plus 180." Eh, it's not so sexy.
35:41
Uh, the book is a competitor that, uh, yeah, okay. Advocate Skirmish, yeah. So they have quarter odds up. I don't love plus 180 on Pagoul. I would need longer than that.
35:49
Uh, 3JackH3131, uh, Gil, uh, Gil Caesars has most wins in July up already. So who you got? I haven't looked yet. Let me get through June first. Let's get our, ourselves a win.
36:01
Uh, Scott Barnhart had a $72 bonus bet, plus 130 on a three-way golfer bet. My golfer tied, putting this into a dead heat with one other golfer. Where is my math incorrect? 72 at plus 130 equals 9360, divided by two.
36:17
Book in question says my payout is 1080. Well, you said you tied with two other goal- uh, oh, no, oh, 'cause it's a three-way and then you have to reduce your stake. It's a whole thing.
36:27
It's not as clean math as you're making it out to be. Just wanna point that out. I know, dead heats suck. I'm not trying to be the bearer of bad tidings. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he is the bearer. He's at Fox Sports.
36:37
You can follow him on Twitter @ChrisFallica, F-A-L-L-I-C-A. Coincidentally, it's Chris Fallica, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive guest line. What's happening, man?
36:46
I, I, I feel like the anti-crack here, like you were running crack off at the end of the segment yesterday- [laughs]...
36:52
to, to push him out the door, and here you have me just kind of sitting around, hanging, waiting in limbo, so. But i- it's amazing how you, how well you treat your guests. By the way- I, I see what you did there...
37:00
have you, have you apologized to Paul Carr yet? Oh, you're right. Let's... Y- I have not, and you, you are absolutely right, I should. Please, explain. Yeah, you d- you, yes, you should. Yes.
37:10
Uh, but, but, but Gil- [laughs]...
37:11
was giving Paul a hard time yesterday because Paul suggested that the, the, the price on, on, on Panama against the US, either the, the, the draw or Panama on the, on the line was, uh, a little wonky given Panama's success against the US in recent years.
37:27
And, a- and Gil then just blasted him and accused him of, of hating America. [laughs] And what wound up happening yesterday? Panama cashes in a nice number. Yeah. Paul giving the...
37:38
Paul, finally, someone on this show- [laughs]... uh, i- i- is giving the listener a winner. A- a- and you're d- chastising him out the door.
37:46
Hey, uh- So Paul- Did, did Paul have- Paul, on be- on behalf of, on behalf of Gil- Wow... Paul, I'm apologizing for Gil. Wow. Wow. Listen, the problem- Did Paul, did Paul, did Paul have... Wait a minute.
37:56
Did Paul have an American player just, uh, hitting somebody on the head in the 18th minute and get a red card and having to go 10, uh, 10 against 11 the rest of the way? I, I missed that part. Yeah.
38:05
It, it, yeah, it's ki- kind of, kind of hard to chase, uh, down a man for 70 minutes. Yeah. So- Well- Uh, yeah, that w- was, uh...
38:11
But that, that create, that creates some int- interesting scenarios now for, uh, for Monday night where the U- where the US are gonna have to get a result against, uh, the side that has been the best team in the, in the tournament so far in Uruguay.
38:21
So, uh, we'll, we'll, we'll see if the US' Gold Cup is going to, or Copa América rather, is going to end, uh, rather abruptly. Yeah. They, they gotta beat Uruguay. Gotta beat, they gotta win outright to advance. Or- Oh.
38:33
Yeah... or there's a scenario they can get through with a draw. Yeah. I- I- if, so. Back, backs- If Bolivia happened to them, so yeah... backs against the wall either way. That was not a good result.
38:43
Um, let me, let me just ask you this. You are in LA covering this- Mm-hmm... for Fox Sports, this and the Euros. Um, since you were giving me a hard time, I'll give you a hard time.
38:52
[laughs] Do you think, do you think your bosses, just me and you talking, nobody's listening, if you... Yeah, exactly. Do you think your, do you think your bosses are like, "Oh, no," from that result yesterday?
39:04
Oh, they are, they... Oh, absolutely. No, I mean, it, it's clear. I mean, they, they, I mean, everyone wants the US to go as far as possible because that's gonna keep the, the casual fan alive, the, the US is alive.
39:16
Okay, we're gonna, we're gonna watch, we're gonna tune in. Uh, of course, uh, they, they, every- everyone wants the US to go as far as possible.
39:24
It was the same scenario with the, uh, the women's World Cup down in Australia when the US got bounced early.
39:28
Everybody was kind of disappointed because you lose, uh, the, the, the casual viewer who was rooting, rooting for the United States and the national team, and, uh, you want to see the US win.
39:38
So yeah, that, uh, ab- absolutely, they will, uh, they're, they're hoping [laughs] the be- the best for the US somehow to, uh, to get through on Monday night. What, what- And no, uh- What's-... no reason it can't...
39:49
what's your thought on, on Copa América? Who do you think wins it all? Well, U- Uruguay has been the best team so far. Uh, they, um, they, they were ruthless last night dis- disposing o- o- of, of Bolivia.
40:05
They've got a n- a, a number of attacking options. Uh, they have been the best team.
40:09
However, the way the draw breaks out for them, uh, they're going to have to play either Colombia or Brazil in the semifinal, whereas Argentina, even without Messi, they're on the weaker side of the draw.
40:22
So Argentina's going to be in the final e- even if Messi does not come back.
40:27
And, uh, his injury, I guess, is more serious than people have let on, uh, if you, if you believe the reports coming out of the Argentine media. Uh, so even without him, they'll get to the final. Uh,
40:39
I, I think Uruguay's been the best team, but just to have to beat, uh, Colombia a- a- and Brazil to, to get there, uh, that, that could be very difficult for them.
40:48
So I, I still think the best bet is, is Argentina to get to the final, and then we can, we can see what happens there. Okay, let's go to the Euros 2024. By the way, Chris has, uh, horse racing picks coming up for us.
40:59
He's got a horse racing future- Yeah... coming up for us. [clears throat] And some college football thoughts as well. But, uh, let's get the soccer out of the way. Euros 2024, which you're also covering for Fox.
41:09
Um, what do you make of this so far? Like, what's your biggest takeaway, and what do you think moving forward?
41:17
Uh, the big- biggest takeaway is just how on the one side of the draw, uh, you're, you're gonna have a team either completely rando team reach the final or, or a team completely out of form. Like, whether it's the...
41:34
Oh, I think we lost Chris. I think [audio glitching] I think we might have lost him. Let's try to, let's try to reconnect with Chris. Yeah, let's try to reconnect. Yeah. Chris, we're gonna try to reconnect with you.
41:43
I don't know if he hears me, but we'll try to c- reconnect with Chris 'cause we have a lot to talk about, not just his Euro thoughts, but, uh, again, horse racing and horse racing future coming up, as well as college football thoughts, um, which of course is his bread and butter.
41:57
Um, so we'll work on that. How much, uh, can I ask you how much do you bet college football? Or is it... How, how difficult is it with college football, NFL kind of back to back?
42:06
Um, I mean, I bet my share of college football- Yeah... for sure, but much more NFL. Yeah. College football, I pick my spots. Chris Fallica's back, by the way. He doesn't pick his spots in college football.
42:14
He's all over it, uh, courtesy of the Progressive, the Progressive guest line once again. Um, finish the thought on the Euros, if you would.
42:22
Yeah, I, I, I was, I was talking about the, the one side of the bracket where everyone just kind of assumes that England are gonna find their form and get through. It, it... Yeah, I, I don't necessarily feel that way.
42:33
I, I think there's a bet to be made on that other side of the draw with the Netherlands. Uh, they're plus 350 to reach the final. And, and I know they haven't looked great.
42:42
They did play well, uh, a- against France where they were kind of unlucky and could have won that match. Uh, however, uh, I, I think if you look at, they get Romania i- in- in the round of 16, who they should beat.
42:54
Uh, then you get the winner of Austria-Turkey. And Austria-Netherlands is probably the match of the tournament so far. Uh, I think they can easily get the, a, a result there and, and move on.
43:05
And then you're looking at maybe playing England who, who's out of form, and Italy, who's, uh, hasn't been what they've been, uh, in, in the past in the semifinals.
43:13
So I, I think, I think the Dutch at plus 350 to reach the final, and you can kind of get the name the finalists type bet. Uh, you can get, uh, Netherlands-Spain at 14 to one, Netherlands-France at 18 to one.
43:25
I, I, I think, look, I, I was higher on the Dutch coming into the tournament th- than most people, and they've really been hit or miss.
43:32
But, but I think they're gonna make some lineup changes, and, uh, Joey Veerman did not play well, uh, in, in that last match, so I, I think you'll probably see a little bit less of him.
43:41
I think they'll sure up some, uh, defensive, rare defensive problems that they had in that match against Austria.
43:47
So, uh, the, the Dutch at plus 350 to reach the final, and maybe playing around with some big numbers to, uh, name the finalist on the other side might be worth a bet, just 'cause I, I think that bracket's out of whack 'cause everybody is just thinking England are gonna somehow get there now.
44:01
Do you end up betting soccer or the Olympics as well? Soccer at the Olympics I ha- I have not bet yet. Um, I bet tennis at the Olympics. I, I- Yeah...
44:09
I have a nice bet on Iga, Iga to, to, to win at the, uh, at Roland Garros, but I have not bet soccer or the Olympics. What number did, what number did you get on Iga? Minus 140. Oh my God. Max, good God. Yeah. Yeah.
44:23
Yeah, it, it k- kind of moved after that. [laughs] I was gonna say. By the way, she's minus 175 to win the French next year. That's, it's unbelievable. Okay. Yeah. Um, we'll get to the horse racing.
44:33
We'll get to the college football on the other side. Chris Palica, I don't know if he deserves to come back, but we'll have him on next segment. I don't know.
44:39
Coming back on The Numbers Game right here at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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