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Jun 28, 2024
A Numbers Game | June 28, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | June 28, 2024 | Hour 2
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44:17
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it.
0:16
Gil Alexander, Wyatt Tomchek in for the vacation, and Kelly Bidlin. Uh, that was quite an hour. Uh, Wimbledon draw, um, Houston Astros June scenarios, and then, uh, you know, rando stuff with the, uh, with soccer.
0:30
Eh, it's not for every- a quirky hour. Quirky hour of, uh, Numbers Game. We like to call it the month of June. That's [laughs] otherwise known as the month of June. You thought that was quirky? Wait for this.
0:39
We have NHL draft coming up on the, uh, this hour. We've never done that before on the show. NHL draft with, uh, Vegas refund Luke Swain, and, uh, we also will talk UFC 303 with Jordan Sherwood.
0:51
Jason Weingarten, uh, will join us from under a cloud of smoke as well. Chris Falica, The Bear, kind enough to, uh, join us for a second segment here. Um, let's get the horse racing.
0:59
You, you're, you know, again, 11 sports you and I have talked on this show. We counted them one time. Horse racing is at the top of the heap.
1:05
You have some, you have some individual horse racing for today, and then you have a horse racing future. What you got? Yeah, I, I do.
1:11
First, I'm just ex- I'm, I'm loving the, uh, the 50 to 1, uh, hurt cash future from, uh, from, from May 2nd here. So it's, and now that the bet price is coming up. Yeah, horse- You got that, you got that at DraftKings?
1:22
For instance- At DraftKings? I did. At Dra- DraftKings early May, exactly. So, uh- Good for you... with, with, with that draw we, we kind of, we kind of, we kind of like that.
1:29
So, uh, but, but today, um, couple of races at Belmont era, uh, Act- Belmont at Aqueduct.
1:35
They're, they're racing, holding the Belmont meet at Aqueduct that I went through and looked, uh, just 'cause I wanted to give you a completely random Friday. Uh, fourth race- [laughs] Uh, fourth race.
1:45
I, I wanted to give you bets because I, I didn't have anything that jumped off the page in college football that I had bets, so I felt like I wanted to give you something other than soccer.
1:53
Um, uh, nu- number two horse in the fourth race at, uh, at Belmont, Andy Cant is the name of the horse.
2:01
Uh, the horse is, uh, dropping back into, uh, con- conditioned claimers, non-winners at two out of a, uh, $50,000 allowance race for a very, uh, high percentage trainer, Rob Aitris.
2:11
So I, I think, uh, th- this horse in his third start against winners here back where, back where he belongs at, at price- Chris, Chris, give that name again. Give that name again for that horse. What is it?
2:20
[clears throat] Andy, Andy Cant. As Andy, as in Andy McNeil. Okay. Uh, Andy Cant is the name of the horse. [laughs] As in Andy McNeil. Um- Okay...
2:22
the, the, the, the, the, another, the number two horse in, in the fourth race at, uh, at Aqueduct, a five to two morning line will probably be around nine to five or so at post.
2:22
Uh, then we're gonna move on to the, the, the sixth race. I realize I'm, I'm going quick here. Uh, the number 10 horse, Stage Presence, uh, in the, uh, in the sixth at Aqueduct.
2:22
The horse, uh, last race out in hi- in her debut, kind of had poor start, just kind of figured it out late.
2:22
Um, and, and I think the fact that this horse now gets a, an outside post at a nice sprint distance on the turf for Christophe Clement, who's a very good turf trainer, uh, draws outside.
2:22
The way the horse finished up last time makes me think that this horse is a pretty good runner. And, uh, five to one on the 10 horse, Stage Presence, uh, in the sixth at, at Aqueduct.
2:22
And then we're gonna go to the seventh race and, and I'm gonna go with the, um... Where is the horse here? It was the seventh race or the eighth race? Let me, uh... I mi- I mighta, I mighta, I might be lying here.
2:22
Don't lie. I might- Remember it... I mi- I might, I mi- I might be, I might be lying here. Where am... I'm li- I, I am ly- I'm just holding... I, I, this is just great radio here right now.
2:22
[laughs] It's gre- I just looked at this morning. I was just like, "That's exactly what I was thinking." It, it w- It, it, it w- it was, it was the seventh race, uh, uh- Okay... I promise.
2:22
It is the, uh, it's the number nine horse, Generous Lover. Uh, this is a, a horse that's dropping, a New York State breds, uh, dropping down into maiden claiming races.
2:22
Um, horse kind of went at a route the first time around tired. Second race, sprint distance, but at a higher level, kinda, kinda speed and fade. And, and I think now, uh, this, this is a move that I love.
2:22
The horse is dropping, and the horse is coming out of a sprint, going, uh, a route of ground on the turf.
2:22
A- and I think it's an opportunity against cheaper horses that this horse might get the lead a- a- and just get brave on the lead and keep going.
2:22
So Generous Lover, the nine horse, is [clears throat] Andy, Andy Cant, as Andy, as in Andy McNeil. Okay. Uh, Andy Cant is the name of the horse. [laughs] As in Andy McNeil. Um- Okay...
2:29
the, the, the, the, the, another, the number two horse in, in the fourth race at, uh, at Aqueduct, a five to two morning line will probably be around nine to five or so at post.
2:37
Uh, then we're gonna move on to the, the, the sixth race. I realize I'm, I'm going quick here. Uh, the number 10 horse, Stage Presence, uh, in the, uh, in the sixth at Aqueduct.
2:47
The horse, uh, last race out in hi- in her debut, kind of had poor start, just kind of figured it out late.
2:56
Um, and, and I think the fact that this horse now gets a, an outside post at a nice sprint distance on the turf for Christophe Clement, who's a very good turf trainer, uh, draws outside.
3:06
The way the horse finished up last time makes me think that this horse is a pretty good runner. And, uh, five to one on the 10 horse, Stage Presence, uh, in the sixth at, at Aqueduct.
3:17
And then we're gonna go to the seventh race and, and I'm gonna go with the, um... Where is the horse here? It was the seventh race or the eighth race? Let me, uh... I mi- I mighta, I mighta, I might be lying here.
3:28
Don't lie. I might- Remember it... I mi- I might, I mi- I might be, I might be lying here. Where am... I'm li- I, I am ly- I'm just holding... I, I, this is just great radio here right now.
3:40
[laughs] It's gre- I just looked at this morning. I was just like, "That's exactly what I was thinking." It, it w- It, it, it w- it was, it was the seventh race, uh, uh- Okay... I promise.
3:47
It is the, uh, it's the number nine horse, Generous Lover. Uh, this is a, a horse that's dropping, a New York State breds, uh, dropping down into maiden claiming races.
3:59
Um, horse kind of went at a route the first time around tired. Second race, sprint distance, but at a higher level, kinda, kinda speed and fade. And, and I think now, uh, this, this is a move that I love.
4:13
The horse is dropping, and the horse is coming out of a sprint, going, uh, a route of ground on the turf.
4:20
A- and I think it's an opportunity against cheaper horses, that this horse might get the lead a- a- and just get brave on the lead and keep going.
4:28
So Generous Lover, the nine horse, is certainly, to the Aqueduct, at, uh, six to one. A nice six to one price in the morning line, and we might get something pretty close to that.
4:36
So there are three spot plays for you today, uh, at Aqueduct. And then the future I have is, uh, the Breeders' Cup Classic.
4:44
Again, it, it, it's a, it's a dart throw whether these horses are actually going to, to get there. We, we're looking at a race that's, uh, three, three, four, three, four months away.
4:54
However, the, the, the, the classic distance, uh, grouping right now, the, the, the older horses, the field is basically i, I don't wanna say shambles, but there really are no standouts.
5:06
And, and I think you have to bet this before tomorrow because the horse's name is First Mission, who's going in the Stephen Foster tomorrow at Go- at Churchill Downs.
5:15
The horse should win the race, a- and I think if, if, when the, if the horse does win, uh, Brad Cox's horse for Godolphin, I think if First Mission does win that race, the price is gonna drop.
5:26
I've seen him anywhere from 15 to 20 to one to win the Breeders' Cup Classic. Again, that's a scenario where we guarantee the horse is gonna win. Uh, the horse does win the Stephen Foster.
5:39
Uh, the, the price will go down. You're probably gonna get w- two starts, I would think, before the Breeders' Cup Classic out of him based on how I think Brad Cox will handle the horse.
5:47
Uh, I would suggest betting First Mission to win the Breeders' Cup Classic before the Stephen Foster tomorrow, if you can find somewhere between 15 to 20 to 1. All right.
5:55
First Mission, bet today before the horse runs tomorrow. Bet First Mission to win the Breeders' Cup Classic.
6:03
[clears throat] And then real quick, the three, just give us the three names of the horses that you are betting today real quick for those who missed it again.
6:10
Andy Kant, to, to, to the word, the, the first name, Andy Kant, uh, number two horse in the fourth at Aqueduct.
6:17
Uh, Stage Presence, uh, two words, the number 10 horse in the sixth race at Aqueduct, and the number nine horse in the seventh race at Aqueduct, Generous Luva. It's L-U-V-A is how they spell- Beautiful... Luva there.
6:29
Luva. Okay, beautiful. We got that clear now. Okay. Um, in our last attempt to get through the la- [laughs] last five minutes here- [laughs]... 'cause I know, 'cause I know your audio's a little janky. I'm sorry here.
6:39
No. This ho- the, the hotel wireless here is really, really bad. I've had problems- But, um-... off and on, that's why I, I apologize. We're toughing it out. We're getting through it.
6:46
So I, I asked this of Tim Murray earlier, I'll ask you the same question. What is your most outlying college football opinion right now that sort of is against conventional wisdom? Uh. Or I'll reph- I'll rephrase it.
7:03
What's the opinion you hear the most that causes you to wince the most? You're like, "I can't buy that." Okay. Uh, a- a- a- it's, it's a little close to home here, ju- just because it involves my alma mater.
7:17
Uh, I, I think it's this assumption that Miami, because of the transfer portal and bringing in Cam Ward and bringing in some other guys, that this is a team that automatically, uh, is just going to go 10 and two or whatever and win the ACC.
7:31
Uh, this is a team that's won 10 games once in the last 20 years or so. Um, and, and we've seen that number in the opening game at Florida. Uh, they're like a few...
7:44
Th- that number's gone, I think, from like pick or one, uh, two, two and a half. I think it touched three now in Gainesville, the season opener.
7:51
Like I, I, I will absolutely be taking Florida plus a field goal in the season opener if, if that number stays at three, uh, against Miami. But again, I, I admit as alumni pessimism, I need to see them go out and do it.
8:04
We, we've heard this conversation about Miami before. Uh, I'm optimistic and hopeful, and I wanna see my alma mater win.
8:12
But, uh, the, the belief and this, the assumption that they're gonna automatically just run through a, a weakened ACC, uh, with Florida State losing so much and Clemson being kind of in flux.
8:25
Uh, the, the assumption that auto- they're automatically gonna be in the ACC championship game now, I think- All right. Thank you...
8:33
plus they brought in probably the fourth best transfer, I've got, I've, I've gotta see it. Okay. Um, all right. Um, [laughs] okay. Just about when I was c- cut off, when it, it re- reestablishes.
8:45
Okay, and then Alabama in the post Nick Saban era, how, how far do they fall just in one off season to you? Um, I, I don't think they're a national championship contender.
9:00
Uh, I, I think the b- the players that they lost, I, I think i- is a problem. Now look, it's nothing against Kalen DeBoer, it, it's just I just wonder, uh, I would not make a bet on Jalen Milroe to win the Heisman.
9:12
I think he's ridiculously priced way too short. Uh, but, but I, I do not think this is a national championship team. I mean, I think the depth of the SEC, like, will they...
9:21
I think they're probably a fringe playoff team. I think you're looking at, uh, Georgia being certainly better in the SEC, Texas certainly being better in the SEC. LSU could potentially be better in the SEC.
9:32
Tennessee could potentially... Like, like the SEC at the top is really, really deep. Like I, I'm curious if, uh, I'm sure the markets exist. I, I would love to see like yes no price on Alabama to make the playoff.
9:43
How many teams legitimately do you feel could win the national championship? How deep of a, of a list is that?
9:50
I, I think it's Ohio State and Georgia for sure are the two teams that like the, the percentage chance that one of those two teams win is very, very good, and then it probably takes a dip to like Oregon, Texas right below it.
10:04
Other than that, I mean, you're, you're talking about a team having, having to w- win four games and they'd probably have to beat, beat Ohio State and Georgia to get... Like I, I can't see that. So like, like if...
10:16
Like it, it's a long season and anything can happen, but I think if you can get nice plus prices at Georgia and Ohio State and just kind of hold those [laughs] tickets against each other, pretty good position to be in heading into the, uh, the playoff.
10:30
All right. And I don't know if I asked you this at any point, but I will conclude with this. Okay.
10:33
Uh, from your viewing of college football, and no one watches more college football than you, of all the quarterbacks that were drafted, obviously it matters where they ended up, Caleb Williams in Washington, Jayden Williams, uh, excuse me, Jayden Daniels in Washington, uh, Caleb Williams in Chicago I said, uh, Bo Nix in Denver, so on and so forth.
10:51
Who's the one that you feel, based on how you viewed them in college football and where they ended up, is going to have the best situation, who's gonna have the worst?
11:03
I, I, I think Caleb's in the best situation ju- just because of the, the weapons that he has, uh, a- around him. The... I, I think he is.
11:14
I mean, e- even Jayden Daniels has, I, I think J- I think Jayden Daniels probably has the best situation early j- just because of the division that they're in with the Giants, but, but I, I think Caleb has a chance long term to be, to be really good.
11:29
I'm not sold on Drake May, just where he is and just the total absolute rebuilding that went with Oak. I, I would say Jayden one, Caleb two right there at the top, and I'm not sold on Drake May- Okay.
11:41
Jayden one, Caleb two... in the playoff spot. Chris, thank you for toughing it out. Sorry to everybody for the tech problems, but we got, we got the information we wanted out there. UFC 303 next with Jordan Sherwood.
11:56
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12:59
Get instant access to our all-new NFL betting guide. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. I didn't even know I was on camera when I was reading that promo. What happened there? That's interesting. How you doing, guys?
13:08
Well, you, you know- Yeah... I wanna put the beauty on the camera. [laughs] Um, all right. I hope you buy me a McGriddle for that compliment. [laughs] Wyatt Tomcheck, who has a McGriddle ev- McGriddle every weekend.
13:18
I don't know if you know that about him. Um- Wants me to buy him a McGriddle. I'll buy you a McGriddle, Wyatt. Geez. God, he's here a week, he wants a McGriddle. It's Gil Alexander.
13:26
Kelly Billings, uh, in, uh, in on Monday. Wyatt did a great job this week. Thank you, sir. Appreciate it, if I don't get a chance to tell you before the end of the show. Thank you. It's been a lot of fun.
13:35
You've been great. Uh, let's talk some UFC. UFC 303 this weekend. Uh, we always have him on to discuss UFC. He joins us now once again, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
13:43
It's Jordan Sherwood, co-host of the Unnamed MMA podcast. You can find him on Twitter at woodonespn1000. What's happening, Jordan? Dale, Wyatt, pleasure to be with you.
13:53
And yeah, let's, uh, win some McGriddles, uh, so we could enjoy this weekend, uh, after, uh, tomorrow night, UFC 303. Uh, absolutely. And let's, l- Can we start with the main event? Can we do it that way- Sure...
14:03
and then we'll work down? Uh, this is, um, I don't know how you feel about this, but Alex Pereira, Jiri, uh, Jiri Prochazka. Um- Yeah... this is Pereira 10 and two, Prochazka 34 and one. Light heavyweight main event.
14:20
Uh, you have a thought here. You are, uh, in, I'm, I'm trying to see right here. You are... Oh, this is interesting. So you have a, a, not a side here, but you've got a prop bet on this. Yeah, I, I do.
14:32
And look, this is a short-notice fight. Uh, both of these guys fought each other in November.
14:37
But when Conor McGregor, uh, was injured and unable to compete on this card, Dana White had to scramble, put together a good card, uh, to, you know, curry favor with people that were either gonna be in attendance or, or watch on pay-per-view, and I think he's done it.
14:50
Uh, Alex Pereira is a special talent. I mean, he's only had eight fights in the UFC, and half of them have been in title fights.
14:58
He's an absolute killer on the feet, a precision striker that carries great power in rounds one through round five, and we saw that on display when he knocked out Jiri Prochazka, uh, you know, the last time that they met back in that November, uh, meeting.
15:13
And look, I think we're gonna get the same result. Jiri Prochazka, the way that he fights is very unorthodox, uh, but his defensive mechanism [laughs] is kind of to lead with his chin up in the air.
15:25
Uh, and he, look, he prides himself on his toughness. It's just that Pereira has just s- just this unique power that we haven't seen really ever, uh, in the UFC.
15:36
He's growing as a fighter too, is Pereira, with his grappling under the tutelage, uh, of Glover Teixeira, the former light heavyweight champion of the world, and I think we're gonna get the same result, uh, which was a knockout victory for Alex Pereira.
15:48
So if you're not confident that just on the money line at a dollar 45, you wanna get a little bit, you know, more juice on it, um, for him to win by TKO is plus money, and I like that.
15:59
That's how Pereira wins fights, uh, and I expect him to do the same. So w- we'll, we'll see Pereira getting, uh, his hand raised and still the light heavyweight champion of the world, uh, tomorrow night.
16:09
All right, Pereira via TKO versus Prochazka. Okay, a few, a few fights before that, we have a women's bantamweight fight. Mayra Bueno Silva against Macy S- uh, Macy Chiasson. This, this had a lot of steam.
16:22
Can you explain what's going on with this? Yeah, I mean, you know, Silva came out, uh, you know, kinda as a, as a heavy favorite. Uh, but she looked lackluster in her last fight, which was a title bid.
16:32
She lost, uh, y- you know, to try and win the, uh, championship against Rocky Pennington. So she was humbled a little bit because she was on a meteoric rise.
16:40
She was finishing people left and right, and unable to do that. So now Macy Chiasson, who's, who's looked good in, in her three f- you know, previous fights.
16:48
Won two, lost one, uh, on a weird upkick, so she was winning that fight till she wasn't. Um, but look, I, I think Bueno Silva's the play here. I think she's better everywhere. She's a finisher.
16:59
Uh, I think she learned a lot from that fight against Rocky, uh, Pennington.
17:04
And Macy Chiasson, even though she's a very good grappler and, and well-versed to the ground, she tends to lead on those takedowns, those double legs with, with her, with her head, and I think Bueno Silva's gonna be able to lock on a, a guillotine.
17:15
That's one of her, uh, submissions that she hunts for in her fights a- and I think that she's gonna not only win the fight, so I love her just strictly on the money line, uh, 'cause I think she's better in the stand up.
17:27
Uh, but I think her via submission is a really good opportunity.
17:30
It's nearly three to one, because Chiasson, look, hasn't been submitted, only been submitted once in her mixed martial arts career, but I just think because of the way that she approaches takedowns and the way that she hunts for it, uh, Bueno Silva's gonna be looking for it.
17:45
And look, with an impressive victory, uh, for either individual, but in particular for Bueno Silva, who was in that title picture just a fight ago, I think she's right back in the mix, uh, to challenge for the championship once again.
17:57
'Cause she just lost that fight against Rocky Pennington by, you know, three rounds to two, so she was in that fight, just got humbled a little bit.
18:03
So I like Bueno Silva on the money line, Dale, and I like her via submission to add a little bit of prop value, uh, to that play. I like that. Juicy, uh, via submission price, plus 310 is what we're showing.
18:12
That in addition to the money line on Bueno Silva against Chiasson.
18:15
Now, right after that, before the co-main, uh, Anthony Smith, who's coming off a big upset against Vitor Petrino, I believe, uh, taking on Roman Dolidze, and you are all about Smith here as well.
18:27
Yeah, I mean, look, I'm glad you mentioned Petrino because I joined you, uh, you know, last time- Yes... that you fought, and I said Petrino was gonna win the fight and Petrino was gonna knock him out.
18:35
But Anthony Smith surprised me. Look, he's just a, a, a superbly talented fighter, surprising. He's still doing what he's doing with as many fights as he's had in a mixed martial arts career, but he's very well-rounded.
18:46
And as long as he doesn't fight dumb, he doesn't put himself into positions where he's gonna lose, uh, he wins fights. And look, this is a short-notice fight for both guys. Both of these guys were not a part of the card.
18:58
Uh, Anthony Smith actually was gonna step in first. Now he gets a new, new opponent, and here's the reason why I like Anthony Smith. One, Roman Dolidze's moving up in weight. He normally competes at 185.
19:10
This fight's contested at 205. Anthony Smith is a natural light heavyweight, and I think Roman Dolidze's only path to victory is, like, in a unique submission, and that's, like, via a heel hook.
19:21
So not only a- are we saying, like, grapple versus grapple, but, like, he's gotta do it in a unique way. I think Anthony Smith pieces him up on the feet a- and if it goes to the ground, Anthony Smith is going to be fine.
19:34
The only reason why you would pick Roman Dolidze, uh, is because of the unorthodox that he brings in and that submission game that he might have. But I think Anthony Smith is, is clearly better everywhere.
19:46
This Smith, or this line is, is, is, is off in, in my opinion, so just grabbing Anthony Smith, The Lionheart, uh, on the money line at plus 124. You see there on screen. I think it's a perfect play. Easy.
19:57
Rest assured, he's gonna get his hand raised. The Lionheart. He owes us one, by the way, Jordan. He owes us one.
20:02
Uh, and so just to clarify, uh, also on the main card, you got nothing on the Ortega, uh, Ortega-Lopez, uh, co-main, and nothing on Ian Ma- Ian Machado Garry and Michael Page. Nothing on those two.
20:12
Uh, I mean, w- here's, here's what I'd recommend. I, I, I think the, the, the first matchup of the, of the main card, Garry versus Page, uh, two great strikers. They're gonna try and figure each other out.
20:23
Uh, I, I think Garry probably wins the fight. That's the safer play. But I think the over, uh, at two and a half, I think this is going to the judges' scorecards.
20:31
Uh, it's gonna be a striking battle, and then it's gonna be bonkers. That co-main event is nuts. Ortega, Lopez. Lope- Lopez, mediocre rise right now. Three straight finishes.
20:40
How does he look if this fight goes into round two? Ortega is renowned for his toughness, his ability to weather storms, and then get fights to the ground, but Lopez is very well-versed on the ground as well.
20:52
And al- and also, storyline, Ortega has said he's moving up to lightweight. He took this fight on short notice. This fight's at featherweight. Where's his head at?
21:00
How is he gonna look at the scale earlier, uh, later today? So that's why I don't have an official play. I wanna see what he looks like at the scale, but my f- my, my thought and my heart says Lopez wins the fight.
21:08
He's striking at the right time. Slight favorite, -130 on Diego Lopez in the co-main featherweight bout. All right, give us one in closing here, uh, Jordan, give us one, uh, rando prelim or early prelim for us.
21:19
Yeah, the, the, look, I lo- the old man, Andrei Arlovski, 45 years of age. It's crazy he's still competing, uh, at this level. He's g- he's fighting Martin Boudet, who, who, who's, who's like an iceberg.
21:30
Like, he just, like, falls into, like, methodically, you know, moving around the cage very slow, and I think Arlovski's gonna use footwork, play from the outside, avoid the big strike, and outpoint Martin Boudet.
21:42
I'm surprised by the performances we've seen from Boudet that Andrei Arlovski is as big an underdog as he is. Look, he's been chinny, but not lately. [laughs] So I think it's a perfect play. Give me Arlovski.
21:55
Give me the former champion, the future Hall of Famer, uh, at plus money, or if you even wanna get more creative, to him, to win via decision is, is even higher numbers. So I love Arlovski. Wow.
22:05
Put some money in your poc- put some McGriddles in your pocket early in the night, uh, with Andrei Arlovski straight up on the money line.
22:12
I love, I love that you say he's been chinny, though not lately, he sort of says- That's right... with a question mark. [laughs] Jordan, appreciate it. Uh, I'm gonna tail a couple of those dogs.
22:21
Arlovski again, plus 240, um, even, even longer if you get frisky with it, with a, with a prop bet, but plus 240 on the money line, and then, uh, earlier we had the, uh, the Bueno Silva via submission also north of $3, in addition to the other bets.
22:36
Thank you, Jordan. Appreciate it. All right, fellas. Thank you. Jordan Sherwood, everybody, right here, courtesy of the Progressive guest line. Jason Weingarten on the other side.
22:45
To check out our website, it's in full effect, vsin.com. And again, the, the breadth of sports, just looking at the homepage is unbelievable.
22:53
Adam Burke with the more conventional baseball best bets, but he's also on horse racing. He's also on NASCAR. Lou on UFC.
23:03
Um, Johnny Lazarus on the NHL Draft, and we're gonna talk to, uh, Luke Swain, Vegas Refund, momentarily on that. Tyler Shoemaker on the WNBA. Zach Cohen on Wimbledon. It's all there at vsin.com.
23:14
Best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles. Check it out. Let's go Alexander White, top checking for, uh, Kelly Bidlin. We get tweets at Beating the Book.
23:21
We got a bevy, am I allowed to use that word, bevy of tweets, uh, regarding one of Felika's picks. Apparently, uh, race seven at Aqueduct, the number nine, Generous Lover, has been scratched.
23:33
[laughs] So we went through, we went through a lot of that, and apparently Generous Lover was scratched. Sorry about that, guys.
23:38
That, uh, according to Novak, Paul Nelson, the numbers guys, O'Dale, everybody's on that, uh, says that that is no longer the case. Ch- Chris Heath chimes in.
23:47
He says, "Felika's connection makes that information that he gave us that much more valuable." [laughs] That's so great. Uh, and then Jason, "I'm not in Vegas. What online site has the MLB win totals for the month?"
24:01
Um, you're not in Vegas on... You're talking online. I can only tell you what's happening here in N- in Nevada. Uh, season win totals on a monthly basis, March, April,
24:12
uh, DraftKings was part of that, but they were not part of that in May or in June. So I'm not sure where you are or if you're in a DraftKings jurisdiction, so I'm not sure.
24:20
If they're not in May or June, I don't know that they would be in July either. As far as what's here in Vegas, William Hill Caesars usually puts that out. I'm being told it's out now. I haven't looked yet.
24:31
They usually are the first to put it out a few days before the upcoming month. Circa last month, I didn't think they were gonna participate, but 24 hours before June started, they put out their season win total.
24:42
So I would imagine it's going to work the same way heading into the month of July, which again, once again, um, has an all-star break in it.
24:50
So the only issue with July is there's gonna be fewer games entirely, which I don't know, on the, your first instinct would be, oh, well that you'll be able to more easily wrap your arms around it.
25:00
The other part of that though is that the numbers probably won't be as juicy. Um, so I don't know. I'll take a look at it.
25:07
I, I wanna get, I want, I want the June win first and then I'll really dive in, but I haven't looked at it yet, quite frankly.
25:12
Jason Weingarten joins us from under a cloud of smoke in Southern California, uh, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. @spreadapedia is where you can find Jason.
25:20
Jason, how come you have not gotten involved in any of these monthly bets? Uh, I just don't really have access to them. I never really went through and thought about it. Yeah. What are you, what are you betting for July?
25:32
What's your conclusions? I have nothing in July yet. I haven't looked, uh, but I had the- Oh, you haven't looked? Yeah, Guardians, Guardians, and, uh, Astros.
25:38
It's been, it has been three months of awesomeness, even though we, we were an out shy of a 65 to one in March, April, and then probably coulda won in May.
25:49
I'm not gonna say we should've, but we could've won in May, got to the last day. Um, and then here we are on the cusp. Astros, Astros sweep. We're winning this. Astros go two and one. What's- We got a shot...
26:00
what are the, uh, what were the odds with the Astros? 25 to one at William Hill Caesars, 17 to one at Circa. That's a very good number to- Oh, yeah... to have the two at, two and one down the stretch, that's, uh- Yeah...
26:10
not bad at all. Yeah. You can only set it up. They gotta get home for us. Looking forward to the weekend. That's, that's true. Yeah. Um, all right, what do you have in baseball today? Uh, let's see. I have the
26:22
Guardians under 10. If you could still get 10 at minus 115 or something, that'd be good. I see some nine and a half. I wouldn't play nine and a half, but, uh, yeah, I got 10 there. I bet the Twins again, Twins plus 115.
26:36
I won on the Twins last time I was on the show. That was a nice game. Um, so I'm back on the Twins again today, and I'm on the Yankees, Yankees plus 103, getting, uh, getting the Yankees as a dog here.
26:48
Uh, let me ask you this question in general without, without getting specific or political with it. Do you believe that political betting will be bigger this year than ever before, or maybe not bad? What do you think?
27:05
Probably. I mean, just the way the, the markets tend to go. They, they tend to always be growing, not, uh, going down. So I would assume this is gonna be the most bet election ever.
27:18
La- the last election certainly did numbers, so I would expect this one to, uh, be similar. Pre- pre-flop or night of or both? Both. I mean, it's, it's just an opportunity.
27:29
If you're, if you're dealing lines on it and you have customers, you're gonna have people betting on it, especially if it's on credit. If, if it's on credit.
27:38
It's, it's one of the m- uh, I will just say this, in the arc of this show, it is one of the more fascinating things that we've covered, um, both times, right?
27:47
It, Trump's victory in 2016 and then Trump's loss to Biden in 2020 was perhaps even more interesting, the way that sports bettors in 2020, who are really, really good sports bettors, right, in 2020,
28:02
threw money into Trump the night of thinking that it was going to go the exact same way as 2016. And it, it, to me, it was a fascinating thing because you can be really good in one discipline, right?
28:13
You can be a really good sports bettor, but when it, when you think you can transfer that, like, it, it's like they lost all knowledge of the electoral college.
28:20
We, I liken that often to poker players trying to bet sports, sports, uh, bettors trying to play poker.
28:25
It's an interesting thing and, and it's one that we have, you and I, have had an interesting time following through the years.
28:31
So I, I kinda look forward to it, and this will be a fascinating, uh, run-up to that election in November. I do.
28:37
I do have to say, though, for the record, I see everybody last night tweeting out stuff about Gavin Newsom and, and all their bets.
28:44
"Oh, I got Gavin Newsom 40 to one," or, "Gavin Newsom's down to eight to one or 10 to one." I have him 150 to one, so- Okay... I'm way ahead there.
28:52
I don't think he, I don't think he's jumping in, but, um, I'm silently way ahead of the market there. Yeah. Not so silently now. Yeah, someone, someone would have to convince the President.
29:01
I don't know if that's his wife. I don't know if that's somebody else. But we, we will see if that happens, um, here in June, still pre-convention, some four and a half months before the actual, uh, general election.
29:13
All right, what else you betting this weekend? Uh, mostly golf. I got a little bit of basketball. I was telling you, uh- Oh, yes... one of my favorite- Can you bring this up?... favorite times of the- Please...
29:22
favorite times of the year for basketball betting is 'cause you get a lot of these random small international tournaments, and we're getting Olympic basketball, so we have, like, friendlies and stuff before the Olympics right now, which is great, for, for example.
29:38
And a lot of this stuff isn't necessarily something you need to have a model or know too much about. But, uh, like the Bahamas national team, I'm trying to actually even see where they are in the rankings.
29:49
Um, you know, I have to Control-F find Bahamas here real quick. Okay, they're 57th in the FIBA rankings.
29:55
Uh, they lost to Montenegro two days ago, who were 17th in the FIBA ran- rankings, and then they had a back-to-back against Greece the next day. Like, I don't know anybody on the Bahama team.
30:07
I'm pretty sure they're not gonna do well playing back-to-back against two top 20 teams. It's, it's an easy spot to lay. Uh, Greece yesterday, I think Greece won by 20 or 30 points.
30:16
Um, so I'll do some stuff like that 'cause it's, it's early in the day. Uh, it doesn't require too much knowing about anything. Um, you can Google the teams and come up with everything you really need.
30:27
Um, and it keeps me busy while I'm waiting for other stuff to bet on. So, uh, you know, a couple nice spots like that. I think, uh, Spain is playing the Dominican Republic today.
30:38
I didn't, I didn't lay, uh, I didn't lay the points of Spain, but I did use, I did use the money line.
30:43
Like I, I, I used it to parlay some totals that I liked that I thought I had a little bit of an edge on to get A slightly bigger, uh, edge on. And look, if Spain loses, uh, whatever. I don't, I'm not even watching.
30:55
I don't care Um, you texted me about some really, like a small country tournament that you were betting on. Do you remember this? Like, I don't even, I don't even know what the name of the tournament is. It's Andorra.
31:07
Um- [laughs] I'm assuming Lux- Luxembourg is there. Luxembourg, yeah... Mal- Malta, uh, San Marino. Is that... I'm pretty sure that's how you say it, San Marino.
31:17
And, uh, what's the other real tiny, tiny one that, that's not even real?
31:21
Um, I don't even remember, but all these little tiny countries with like 300 people that are basically tax havens are playing each other, um- Not the Va- It's like the tax haven tournament Not the Vatican, Jason.
31:32
Don't say the Vatican by the... That's actually what I guess- No, no, it's not the Vatican... yes It's one of the other ones on the border of Spain and, uh, France. Not Monaco. I'm totally blanking on the name.
31:41
Uh, Liechtenstein maybe. Liechtenstein's in there, yeah But all these little, all these little tiny countries that you're like, "They have 300 people that live there. How are they fielding teams?"
31:50
I'm like, "Yeah, I'm gonna bet on that. Of course I'm gonna bet on that." Um [laughs] Of course you are. Do you get pretty- Andorra- Yeah, go ahead...
31:56
Andorra upset Malta in overtime yesterday, I think Oh, big upset, Jason. Everybody knows that's an upset. [laughs] Sure. Um- There's like 300 people in Andorra.
32:04
I don't even know where it is Well, well this is what, Andorra is right between, Andorra is right between Spain and France. It's literally like this little thing right ensconced in the border of Spain and France.
32:15
Yeah, I know it's Spain and France, but I don't know where. I don't, can't tell you anything about it. Oh. I have a history degree. I can't tell you anything about it. [laughs] Okay.
32:21
Uh, and do you get heavily involved in the Olympics? Like, what sports do you end up betting in the Olympics? Oh, I love the Olympics.
32:27
Uh, last, last Olympics I would stay up in the middle of the night all night betting on it, 'cause it's just, it's such great value. It comes around every four years. There's so many sports.
32:37
I know people who crush, you know, swimming- Yeah... track and field. The oddsmakers, you know, they just have to throw up numbers on this stuff. A lot of the times it's, it's nonsense. Um, it's very fun.
32:48
I love the Olympics. I'm, I'm volunteering to be the, uh, VSiN Olympic correspondent- Okay... in fact. Well, you'll have to stand behind Drew.
32:54
[laughs] You, Drew Dincic is all about this, the swimming, and he dives deep into that. But you and him can be our, our Olympic correspondents. Jason, appreciate it as always, man.
33:04
Uh, good luck on the small, uh, country basketball tournament and whatever else you're betting. Appreciate it. Thank you. Have a good week. I'll talk to you guys later.
33:10
Couple baseball picks from Jason as well at Spreadapedia from under a cloud of smoke. We'll come back. Uh, we're gonna do something on the show that we have never done before, talk NHL draft.
33:19
Well, Luke Swain will anyway, Vegas Refund. Uh, we'll have the screens up so that his pronunciations can be translated for those of us who speak the English language. We look forward to that. It's next.
33:28
Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music] NFL season your best ever with our all-new VSiN NFL betting guide.
33:42
The guide's packed with everything you need to bet the NFL smarter, including in-depth previews of all 32 teams with win total projections for every team, new quarterback and head coach breakdowns, Super Bowl predictions, a prop betting guide, plus best futures bets from the VSiN experts, including MVP, Rookie of the Year, and Coach of the Year awards.
33:57
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just getting started, our NFL betting guide is your ticket to smarter, more informed bets. Visit vsin.com/guide to get your copy of our all-new NFL betting guide today.
34:08
That's V-S-I-N.com/G-U-I-D-E. Gil Alexander, Wyatt Tomcheck in for, uh, the vacationing, uh, Kelly Tilghman. You know the, first of all, let me just say this, uh, Wyatt.
34:19
It's not j- I'm not saying it's your fault at all, it's just how the cookie crumbles sometimes. Uh, not every show can win the Pulitzer, and today's was a quirky show.
34:26
And the underrated part that I will remember about this show is that we had not one, but two different occasions where guests took time live on air to search for their bets.
34:35
[laughs] That was the best part, where- That's it, yeah... it's like, "Hey, let me go- "Hey, let me go search for this"... I'm gonna let Wy garden. He's like, "Now let me hit Command+F here, 'cause I can't find it."
34:42
[laughs] I think our, I think our guests are getting a little too casual with us. I think it might be my fault. [laughs] Uh, all right, we get texts, we get tweets. Let me read one text.
34:48
This is from, uh, uh, Felika Willhill, say, uh, "Past post fine to Jason for the 150 to one on Gavin Newsom, um, to win the nomination."
34:56
And Frank Doyle lets us know, thank you for this, Frank, uh, "If this helps, only books I have found in Colorado with C- with, uh, month win totals in baseball, Caesars and Circa." Caesars and Circa.
35:11
ZFree adds, "Looks like, uh, Luka's playing today for Slovenia against Brazil," for those who are interested in that.
35:16
Uh, Luke Swain joined us earlier this week at Vegas Refund to talk NBA draft, and he had himself a draft. He's here today to talk NHL draft. Luke joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, man?
35:29
Good, good. Never had two drafts in one week. No. Fantastic. No, it, uh, what, what do you attribute that to? Why, why did it happen this year that way? Uh, I don't know.
35:40
I feel like the NBA date stayed the same, and I'm guessing they moved the NHL date up bec- for, like, it being in the sphere. I bet it had to do with- Oh, prob-... whatever date You're right...
35:51
but- Probably had to do with the sphere scheduling, yeah. [laughs] Um, no, that's true. Um, so let's just wrap, let's put a bow on the NBA draft. How did you end up doing? You, you hit a bunch.
36:01
I know you got Clingan at seven, Edy under, uh, you got Tyler Smith over. You had a bunch that hit. Yeah, I, I did pretty well.
36:09
I think on my, like, I guess quote-unquote "official over-unders," I went, uh, nine and four.
36:15
But the, with shout out to Kristen Peak, who had a tweet I wanna say a couple of hours prior to the draft saying, it was, like, in the watch context of her, like they're targeting a player, but she said, uh, so "The Hornets are targeting Salon at six," which I had her on, like, tweet notifications, and I saw it and couldn't have gone to MGM quicker to hit that, which at the moment it was 30 to one, and it quickly, like, just got destroyed, but that was a huge hit.
36:47
Shout out to Kristen Peak. Wow. She's officially, um, goated for that one, but- Salon six, Klinger seven, then Edy nine were, were fantastic plays. But- Hey, uh- Holland going five was kind of the landmine...
37:02
Holland going five was the landmine. I think that was the line m- the landmine for everybody.
37:06
Hey, uh, just out of curiosity, just asking for a friend, uh, did MGM let you put a good amount on that bet, or was it kind of limited? I'm just curious.
37:13
It wa- it wasn't, it, I think I put, like, 50 bucks on it, which at 30 to one was great. But for- Yeah... the quick thinking, um, which DraftKings would not have let me put anything at all, so. Um, okay.
37:30
Now we go to the NHL draft. The NHL draft. Is this something you have bet before? Yeah, so last year was my first year really getting into it, and it's a totally different beast. How so?
37:49
So with, like, NFL and NBA, they're drafting players, and these guys are playing the next year, which with the NHL, and it's kind of similar to the MLB, like you're really, like, drafting, drafting for the right.
38:01
So these guys are 17, 18 years old, and after you draft them, they're going to play for whatever league they're currently in still. So if they're
38:13
playing in NCAA, they're still gonna go to BC, play a couple of years, then come to the NHL. And really the biggest, I want to say, um, issue that makes
38:23
it kind of murky are the Russian players, which there are a bunch of Russian players, and they might not ever come. So you're kind of drafting
38:33
players based off of, like, who they are that if they were USA guys, they'd probably go number one, but just because of the Russian aspect to it, like you see them going a lot later than probably, um, their skill set merits.
38:48
And it, it's just a, a totally different beast because these guys are so young and you're dra- you're drafting them based off of, like, h- almost hope that...
38:59
It's a five-year investment down the road, I guess you could say. I got you. So you, but it's still information gathering, and if the NFL has- Yeah...
39:05
the most sources and then the NBA has a small percentage of that, does the NHL then have a small percentage of NBA sources?
39:14
Um, I'm actually been pretty impressed the past two years with the NHL info that's been out there, like mock drafts, which The Athletic just does a fantastic job for every draft.
39:24
Like Corey Pronman from The Athletic is probably the number one guy to go to for mock drafts and info. And then you got Chris Peters, who's on Flow Hockey.
39:33
Um, there's just a bunch of websites that I have never been to- Okay... and never will go to outside of the draft. [laughs] Okay. Um, but they're, they're, I have been su- surprisingly happy about how much information
39:48
there has been in terms- Okay... of streams. Well, shout out to DraftKings because they put up a bunch of NHL draft props. So let, what should we be betting, Luke? And we'll spell them for you.
39:56
Where the pronunciations fail, we'll spell it for everybody. [laughs] Yeah, so shout out to DraftKings and
40:03
power to them because none of these guys I've ever heard of, ever seen, and that's probably why they put up so many, because they know how little people know about them.
40:12
But I would say in terms of, like, the over-unders right now, I mean, they have over-unders all the way up to 59. I think Konsta Helenius, which his over-under is 12 and a half, and I think it's minus
40:23
150, maybe a little bit higher. I like that under. Um, to me, he is a guy that has kind of been getting hit, like his stock's been dropping based off of like mocks that you've read. And
40:38
Bob McKenzie, who's out of TSN, he's kind of the Daniel Jeremiah of the NHL draft, where what he thinks in terms of his rankings are prob- are the closest thing we have to what teams are thinking.
40:52
I mean, he had Konsta Helenius in the top 10, where everyone else had him probably in the f- 15 range, uh, which that would be the first piece of the puzzle.
41:01
And he's just a guy I think teams are higher on as a center than probably the public perception.
41:06
At under 12 and a half, it opened at 11 and a half, so it's up one slot, and I really do think the Flyers at 12 are his backstop, and he could go as high as nine to the Flames.
41:17
Um- Okay, let me spell, let me spell that for everybody. Konsta, first name. Okay. K-O-N-S-T-A. Last name- Yep, and then-... Helenius, H-E-L-E-N-I-U-S, under 12 and a half. Konsta Helenius. Okay, next. Yep.
41:32
And then, and another, a couple others I have are I think Zeev Buim, I think playing, like, an exact on him to go third or fifth would be a, a pretty good bet.
41:46
His odds have really gotten hit today, um, but I do still think they're worth a couple darts where Ivan Demidov has been the trendy guy in the top five that is Russian, that for that factor he might be falling,
42:02
and the Ducks at three have always been a huge wild card. No one ever knows what they're doing, and they're notorious for totally going off the wall. And Zeev Buim, who's out of, I want to say Denver
42:16
University, um, his stock, number one defenseman or maybe number two, I can see him going three, and I can also see him going five, which Corey Pronman had him at five, who's
42:28
the GOAT mock drafter in his final mock today, which anything better than, like, three to one, four to one, five to one, I think are great bets. Okay. Uh, first name Z-E-E-V, last name B-U-I-U-M, B-U-I-U-M. Yep.
42:43
16 to one at number three at DraftKings, and 12 to one at DraftKings to go number five. Anything else? Fantastic. Anything else? [laughs] I think that pretty good. I think-
42:58
We don't have to for- we don't have to force it... Sam Dickinson- Yeah.
43:00
No, Sam Dickinson over I think is a, a decent look where Beckett Sennecke, he's trending in the top six or seven right now, which his over-under opened at 11 and a half, and now it's all the way down to six and a half.
43:15
And I think if he goes in the top six or seven, there's just not
43:19
enough slots for Sam Dickinson to go under, which his over-under's at seven and a half, and I think that would be a good over, um, which I think that might even be plus money, which, um, he's, uh, he's Canadian, but he has, I guess, an American technically name, so we don't have to spell it out.
43:34
Yeah, I don't have to spell that one. But that's what Yeah. Um. Sam Dickinson. I'd do, yeah. Yeah. Yep. Over on Sam Dickinson. Okay. Good, good job there, Luke. Four plays. [laughs] Um, that is Food for Thought again.
43:45
Again, shout out to DraftKings because they have all these up, NHL draft props, which begins when? Tomorrow? Tonight. Tonight. NHL draft tonight. In the Sphere. Get your bets in live from the Sphere here in Las Vegas.
43:57
Luke Swain at Vegas Refund. Thank you, Luke, and on the Action Network as well. Thanks, man. Thank you. Vegas Refund, check him out on Twitter. All his stuff, all that he offers there on his Twitter.
44:08
We've done all we can do. Thank you, Wyatt. Nice job, man. Gojo and Golig next on the radio side. Enjoy from VSiN, the sports betting network.
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