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Jun 29, 2026
A Numbers Game | June 29, 2026 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | June 29, 2026 | Hour 1
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46:34
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Transcript
0:00
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0:29
[upbeat rock music] This is VSiN, the sports betting network. The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:48
Good Monday morning to you. It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander from sunny San Francisco.
1:01
Kelly Bittle in back at the mothership, back for vacation in Las Vegas. Kelly, first things first, good morning to you, sir. Glad to have you back. Good morning. Good to see you.
1:11
Gil, this is gonna be the ANG kind of summer setup here. I like it, man. You're in San Francisco loving life. I love it. You know what the problem is? We, we never tested precisely at seven in the morning.
1:21
[laughs] And so we have the strange sunlight. This'll go away, I promise you, uh, here in time. Um, first of all, Shep- It's great natural light, but that's what happens sometimes with natural light, yeah.
1:31
[laughs] Go away, sun. Um, first of all, uh, thanks to Dustin Sweetelsen in your absence. First of all, Wyatt Tomchek last Monday, then Dustin Sweetelsen the rest of the week. Did a great job, uh, in your absence.
1:45
How was your vacation? You had a good time? I hope you didn't have Scottie Scheffler at the Travelers. Oh, no, it was, uh, thank God, j- only at the US Open, Gil.
1:53
So yes, I did not go back to Scottie, uh, at the Travelers, which I was regretting, uh, for a lot of the d- uh, weekend, uh, not having done that.
2:00
But that works out well, as he does lose in a playoff to Viktor Hovland here this morning. But yeah, no, great vacation.
2:05
Was able to get down to the Florida Keys, spend some time down there, one of my favorite places in the world. And, uh, you know, and then hang out in Vegas here for the past few days.
2:11
Uh, do a little pool, little pool activities, a little gambling. It was a good time, Gil. Good time. Yeah, Kelly with, Kelly with a, uh, very early return from the Florida Keys. We were, uh, scolding him for that.
2:22
Um, before we get to anything else, by the way, Greg Peterson on the show today, Adam Burke on the show today, uh, our regulars, Wes Reynolds on the show today as well.
2:31
Uh, we will do MLB most July wins here coming up in about 10 minutes, even less than 10 minutes. Uh, we're gonna get into it. Circa doesn't have them up. William Hill Caesars does.
2:41
We'll to- we'll take a look at where June is, where the Miami Marlins magic number is one. At least at Circa it's at one.
2:50
Uh, a little different in the dead heat rules at William Hill Caesars, but, uh, just a remarkable, remarkable month for the Miami Marlins. By the way, Kelly, zero people had the Marlins in June at Circa.
3:02
[laughs] I have to get the word from Eric Biggio over at William Hill Caesars. Nobody bet the Marlins. No. The book swept it all. That's incredible. So we'll get into J- oh, dude, we'll get into in July.
3:12
I think they were 80 to 1 pre-flop, I wanna say, 75 to 1 at one of the shops, 80 to 1 at, at, uh, at the other. Uh, before we do anything else, let me, uh, vomit out the Wimbledon picks for today.
3:21
Wimbledon has, uh, begun over there in, uh, in London Town. One of the six picks, six, by the way, six picks this morning for subscribers, visa.com/picks. Um, one of them has started, only one of them.
3:35
That's the Ali Tarvit. Ali Tarvit is an English player. He's already started against Artur Rinderknech. That, uh, that one has begun. He's a plus 122 dog. The rest have not.
3:46
Two on the men's side, Marin Cilic is a big dog, plus 223, uh, plus 223, pardon me, versus Daniil Medvedev. Hugo Gaston, plus 190 versus Stefanos Tsitsipas, and then three on the ladies' side.
3:59
Kateryna Siniakova, minus 142 versus Zhang Shuai. Uh, I will skip the, uh, the big one and save it for last. Lalanah Tararudi, a Thai player, plus 125 versus Lily Tagger.
4:11
And then the big one, Hungarian Panna Udvardy, plus 355 versus Ekaterina Alexandrova. Those are the Wimbledon plays that remain today. Just started over there in London.
4:24
Uh, by the way, just to clarify on the, uh, Travelers, case you missed it, Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland went to a playoff this morning. They both have great approach shots, birdie opportunities.
4:34
Hovland sticks what was nearly a seven-footer, and then Scottie misses the two-and-a-half footer. You've said it many times, Kelly. If that dude could putt, my God. Yeah.
4:45
The, uh, the putting number's much better th- uh, this year and, and actually over the past couple years, but yeah, it was [sighs]
4:52
I think watching some of that yesterday, I mean, look, he, he had a, he had a, he had a couple rounds of really great putting this weekend.
4:58
But yeah, watching some missed putts yesterday that, ah, just coulda gotten him over, coulda gotten him over the finish line, and then, yeah, this morning it comes back to bite him.
5:06
And, uh, tip of the cap to Viktor, Viktor Hovland getting the W, and, uh, h- he's starting to round back into form.
5:11
I think we have hit an exciting por- point in the golf season where early in the year it was so top-heavy it felt like, uh, with four, five, six guys, and now you've got some of these other names that are getting back into the mix.
5:23
And then I-- Gil, just an awesome atmosphere. I really wasn't expecting to say that after the Travelers Championship, but these Norwegian fans have taken over the United States and World Cup, and it's just amazing.
5:35
It's so much fun to watch. Yeah, we'll get to the World Cup too, where, uh, Canada has kicked off the, uh, round of 32 with a 92nd-minute goal, uh, to advance to the round of 16 yesterday against South Africa.
5:48
South Africa. So, uh- We will start talking the World Cup. We have a triple header at the World Cup today as well.
5:54
Before we get into, uh, MLB July wins and everything else on the show we wanna talk about, I wanna do a little, uh, this is great for your return because it's right in your wheelhouse, but you didn't get a chance 'cause you weren't here last week to chime in on what the Charlotte Hornets are doing.
6:09
The Charlotte Hornets, Minnesota Timberwolves trade, the big one late last week where the Hornets sent LaMelo Ball to the Timberwolves. They sent Naz Reid, among others, among picks back.
6:20
Um, so the span of a week, the T'wolves traded Julius Randle, they traded Naz Reid, and then, uh, case anybody missed it, yesterday the Hornets trade Miles Bridges, who I know you love, uh, a 2029 first-round pick and a 2027 second-rounder to the Phoenix Suns for Grayson Allen, Royce O'Neale, and a 2033 first-round pick.
6:41
I mean, we are way out there now, uh, with these picks.
6:44
But the Hornets and the Timberwolves, Kelly, have just absolutely decided to change their entire identities, and I was curious how you feel, first of all, about the, the Reid and LaMelo Ball trade, the biggest of the bunch, but really what both teams are doing.
7:00
Yeah, yeah.
7:01
I, I mean, I thought, Gil, one of the more fascinating trades that I, I feel like I've seen in a long time bec- I, I think it completely, it completely depends on at what, how, how you value L- uh, LaMelo Ball.
7:13
And I thought, I thought that was made very clear that there was still some belief in him on the Minnesota side.
7:19
And despite a 50-plus game sample size of one of the best teams in the NBA down the stretch of the regular season, the Hornets, uh, making the decision to move on.
7:28
And, and it really, I think it really gave off the vibes of, "Hey, we've been trying to get out of the La- LaMelo Ball business for years now.
7:36
Um, this one stretch of a great run is, it raised his value enough for it to, for a trade to make it worth it for us, and to hit the reset button and move, move forward with this younger crop."
7:49
And I know you and I were texting a bit about it yesterday. I, sure- surely it tells you that, that, that Hornets front office and ownership did not believe in what they saw towards the end.
7:58
And I, I think it's, uh, it's even tougher for, for me to stomach, Gil.
8:02
I think for a lot of people that know, uh, how much I did believe in that team down the stretch and wanted to see, was interested to see them running it back, I thought they were, they were priced pretty long odds-wise.
8:12
I, I think this continues even for... For Minnesota, I think it's a little bit different story. It's le- it's less head-scratching to me on the Minnesota side.
8:19
I think what you've done is you've, you've revamped this roster now and you've moved out a lot of these bigs that you knew you could rely on that I think raised your floor during the regular season and during, I think during the, the entire season.
8:31
But you saw in the playoffs that they needed that secondary ball handl- uh, handling and scoring that they could rely on. I think that's where LaMelo Ball could come into play.
8:40
I think it could r- raise their ceiling, and I think there's a lot of the teams that are just desperate out west. You and I have been talking about it all year, right?
8:46
It's, it's the Thunder and the Spurs, and you gotta figure out a way to somehow combat that. And I think Minnesota, for as good as they are, were looking at their roster and saying, "This isn't good enough." Yeah.
8:58
It's interesting because I, I... For me, again, and time will tell, right? Mm-hmm. Right. I could be wildly wrong about this. To me, it was a lose-lose because I don't understand.
9:08
In other words, both teams basically said... Now, you might be right, right? Most teams, both teams might have made the assessment, "This is great. We're never gonna win a championship with this."
9:18
And so then it all makes sense, because in the moment what it appears to me is that both teams who looked like they were on the up and up, you know, they sold their souls, they sold their identities.
9:29
So my question to you, and this is what I, I, what I really wanna get at, is you, Drew, Zach, I think all the NBA hardos, right, loved the Hornets last year. Yeah. JVT. It was a big deal for everybody.
9:42
What was it that the Hornets saw differently in the end where they, like, 'cause you said they wanna get out of the LaMelo Ball business.
9:49
Zach's comment really, [laughs] really, for sort of flippantly, was, "Wow, they must really hate LaMelo Ball," right? And, uh, Drew's comment about the Timberwolves was, "Wow, are they trying to get Chris Finch to quit?"
10:01
Um, so even they were a little perplexed. What it wa- Why did they so desperately wanna get out of, as you say, the LaMelo Ball business? Complete culture change i- in Charlotte.
10:10
I think we've heard a ta- couple people talk about it. I know Tim McMahon was talking about it over at ESPN this morning. Obviously, Miles Bridges get traded yesterday to the Phoenix Suns.
10:19
Uh, Bridges with his own off-court issues that he's had in the past. LaMelo Ball i- is, you know, reportedly been a pain in-house.
10:26
And besides being injured a ton, this is a guy that's dealt with massive ankle injuries and missed a lot of time throughout his career. I, I think the Hornets just saw it as, "You know what? We had this good run.
10:35
We could sell high on these guys. Let's reset this culture around Khenunnipho and Brandon Miller and move forward."
10:41
A- I, I think the, what, the, what's tough for me to stomach, Gil, and we can, we can spin this ahead to some of these other NBA conversations as free agency gets started this week.
10:50
It, it's, it, it's tough for me to, to think of the Hornets justifying that move after what you saw they were able to do down the stretch. When you look at the rest of the Eastern Conference, yes, the Knicks are good.
11:01
Uh, yes, the Pacers are going to be better. Yes, the Heat just landed Giannis Antetokounmpo.
11:06
I, I think it's very, very, very open with what we're seeing in the Eastern Conference, and I think maybe the most mind-blowing part of all of this in the East is this Jaylen Brown story that won't go away.
11:17
It, it, it, it made sense to me when they were talking about Jaylen Bra- Brown for Giannis Antetokounmpo. Why are we still talking about trading Jaylen Brown?
11:25
Because they're still talking about it, and there are reports coming down the past couple days about, uh, offers being made on both sides. I'm a little confused by that.
11:35
It looks like there are a potential that the Celtics wanna hit the reset button a little bit, and it's, man, I, I would be looking at this as an opportunity in the East w- with, I don't think that many dominant teams standing in the way
11:48
Yeah. Well, I think in the Celtics case, it's simply because the Jaylen Brown news got out there, right? And now it's-- their, their hand is sort of forced. They must make a move.
11:57
I think if it was all in a vacuum and nobody knew about Jaylen Brown being dangled out of there, I'm not sure they'd want a different identity.
12:03
And a, and an interesting point was made last week as well, is no one saying that it's Brown over Tatum? Like, it's-- there's no consideration that Tatum should be the one dealt and not Brown?
12:13
This'll all be fascinating moving forward in the National Basketball Association. Let's get to the good stuff. MLB most July wins. We break it down, my third, second,
12:24
and first selection, the one I actually made a bet on, on the other side. It's a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners.
12:34
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12:45
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13:09
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13:17
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13:27
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. There is no shortage of betting opportunities this summer from daily MLB and World Cup soccer to Wimbledon and the countdown to football season.
13:44
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14:08
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14:20
Uh, Kelly, before we get to MLB July wins, a couple other NBA notes real quick. Yeah, I'll roll through a few here as we've got some, uh, some coming down.
14:27
Vince Goodwill over at ESPN talking about just going back to Jaylen Brown, reporting, uh, this morning Clippers, Blazers, and Nuggets amongst the teams that have shown interest and have talked to the Celtics about Jaylen Brown, so continues to amaze there.
14:41
And just to finish up kind of that last point on the Eastern Conference, Gil, I, I'll shout out to the Toronto Raptors, who seem to be in the mix for Kawhi Leonard.
14:49
Now, I don't really know if Kawhi Leonard can be traded right now.
14:52
There doesn't seem to be a whole lot of clarity on that with still the, uh, issue holding o-o-oh, hanging over to him, them and the franchise, him and the franchise moving forward. Um, we'll see what happens there.
15:02
But then, yeah, a lot coming down this morning. Zach LaVine, he does ex-exercise his player option, will stay with the Kings. Shocker there. Nobody was gonna pay him.
15:10
Uh, and then we have Draymond Green, this is the biggest, bigger news coming down this morning, declining his $27 million do-d-uh, million dollar player option, will enter free agency, uh, for the first time in his career.
15:23
So Draymond Green, and then- Who's, who's signing him, Kelly? I, I would- Who's signing that guy? I would hope a-- I, I would only think, Gil, a championship-level team that believes they are just a Draymond Green away.
15:34
[laughs] I don't really know. I think you could tell people better than most. And then more gambling news, unfortunately, in the NBA.
15:41
Malik Beasley, uh, indicted on federal charges for gambling related to a sports betting scheme such as point shaving and prop bets. That all coming down from Shams right now. Oh, man.
15:52
We'll, uh, we'll keep an eye on that for sure. Yeah. Uh, okay.
15:56
You know, for those who have listened to a Numbers Game for, uh, for the long haul, you know we've been doing these monthly MLB win markets since their inception couple seasons ago. What does that mean?
16:07
That means we've gone through, uh, two and a half seasons of this. We've hit it once on the Houston Astros in June of 2024, 17 to one at one book, 25 to one at the other.
16:18
We've come so close on a couple others, the most famous of which was the 65 to one that we were one out away from winning, one strike away from winning. Actually, one out, not one strike, I don't think.
16:30
Um, but anyway, a lot of times we're a game out, a win out, that is. Uh, this year we were a win out in March, April with the Cincinnati Reds. We fell one win shy of, uh, getting into a dead heat.
16:42
Last month, the Mariners were never in it. They only ended up finishing four wins back. Uh, wasn't the worst effort on our part. And this month, again, like the Mariners, the Cubs never had a shot at this.
16:53
But Kelly, you look up at the June most win standings and look who's on the board. The Cubs, they're in sixth.
17:00
Still got no shot, never had a shot, because the Miami Marlins are 18 and six, and at a, uh, at a, uh, tiebreaker shop like Circa, their magic number is one here.
17:12
Every- By the way, all those teams on the graphic that you see there, all seven, with the Marlins at the top at 18 and 6 all the way down to the Rangers at 14 and 11, all these teams have two games left today and tomorrow.
17:22
Uh, so there's no discrepancy in terms of games left.
17:25
But in the end, the Marlins at Circa, one win for them, one loss by the Phillies, they take the Circa book, uh, the whole, the whole absolute pool of it, and as I mentioned, it's Circa that takes it all 'cause not a single person had a bet on the Miami Marlins.
17:40
Uh, I'm waiting to, uh, hear from Eric Biggio about William Hill Caesars, how many people, if any, had a bet on the Marlins there.
17:45
The dead heat, uh, puts a little bit of a, uh, difference into the, uh, magic number, but the Marlins are in the driver's seat here with two days left. Who would've thunk it? Which brings us to July.
17:58
Uh, July, which obviously begins the day after tomorrow, it is the most interesting of all the months, Kelly, because there is a All-Star break in the middle of it.
18:06
So in- instead of having 31 days of opportunity, it's actually the shortest of all the months.
18:13
And you would think with it being the shortest of all the months because of the All-Star break, you'd have the least difference between number of games played, in other words, number of win opportunities. Mm-hmm.
18:23
Instead, it's the opposite. Look at this. The St.
18:26
Louis Cardinals play 28 games, or are scheduled to play 28 games in the month of July because there's some makeup games in there from previous rain outs as well, all the way down to 23 games for Baltimore, Houston, and the Angels.
18:42
Now again, at Circa, sometimes having fewer chances to lose ain't the worst thing in the world, but at a dead heat shop like William Hill Caesars, you absolutely want as many opportunities to win as possible.
18:54
Doesn't matter, uh, in the end who gets to the, uh, most wins based on number of games you won. You'd much rather have more games to play.
19:02
So it's really interesting that the Cardinals play five more games than those three clubs. Here's what I landed on, though, in the end. So I'm doing the [laughs] I'm doing the schedule analysis, and I'm getting into it.
19:14
I'm like, "Oh my God, these two teams are absolutely the teams you have to bet." The Atlanta Braves, uh, was the first one I looked at. I'm like, "Wow, look at this schedule."
19:26
What you're seeing here with the Braves, just to sort of, uh, decipher the graphic, the teams they play in the month of July, those teams' records right next to them, and then what you will see on the right side of the screen is the Pythagorean theorem and base runs record.
19:42
So essentially, what their record ought to be based on runs scored, runs prevented by Pythag, and then sequencing essentially what their record ought to be based on that.
19:53
Some teams get super fortunate with sequencing of events during a half an inning. Some people get super unfortunate both offensively and defensively.
20:01
What you will see with the Braves is they're basically playing teams that are all in the 500 range based on what they ought to be. That's what I'm more concerned with. So they were the first consideration.
20:12
I go, I look at the numbers over there at William Hill Caesars, not up yet at Circa, by the way, and I was sort of, like, bummed to see.
20:18
I'm like, "Oh, man, even though the Braves are playing poorly, you're only getting plus 550 on them," so that ends up being my third consideration. I don't make a bet 'cause it's plot...
20:28
plus 550, and no matter how easy the schedule or how much it might line up for you, I'm not betting it at that short of a number.
20:35
That was the same thing, and this I kind of expected, with my second choice, the Milwaukee Brewers.
20:40
Milwaukee Brewers, arguably the best team in baseball, certainly the handful of best teams in baseball, their schedule was even easier than that of the Braves as we head towards July, and I'm thinking, "Well, I'm probably not gonna get a good number on them," and I didn't.
20:53
They're the short shot. They're five to one. Again, same story. There's their schedule, their actual schedule on the left with actual records.
20:59
There's what their opponents' records ought to be, basically based on runs produced, runs prevented, and sequencing. So really a 500-ish schedule.
21:10
You saw their opponents are hovering right around 500, give or take a few games to either side. The arrow just simply denotes, oh, this team is actually f- better than they ought to be.
21:19
This team is actually worse than they ought to be. This team is actually around what they ought to be, uh, in terms of their actual record. The team that I decided to go with, Kelly, isn't plus 550 or five to one.
21:30
The team that I decided to go with is a massive long shot. It is the Boston Red Sox, who I got at 80 to 1. 80 to 1. I think they're knocked down to 60 to 1. Still would be a play, uh, after I bet it.
21:47
Team records on the left side of the screen of who they are playing, uh, in the month of July.
21:53
What those records really ought to be, with the exception of the Dodgers, which is only one game at the very end of that schedule, it is a sub 500 group of opponents that they're playing.
22:05
The Red Sox coming off a four-game sweep of the New York Yankees at Fenway. Sonny Gray almost pitching a no-hitter. At least got a no-hitter into the eighth yesterday.
22:14
But this is really a complete odds play where it's like, listen, I'm not suggesting that the Boston Red Sox are anywhere near as good as the Atlanta Braves, let alone anywhere near as good as the Milwaukee Brewers, but the number here dictates, hey, look, we didn't think the Marlins were gonna win June, did we?
22:30
None of us did. I think that the Boston Red Sox are going to actually realize some of a lot of folks', uh, prognostications on them pre-flop on the season in this month.
22:40
I think they c- they take the momentum of what just happened against the Yankees. Their initial schedule is against Washington, the Angels, the White Sox, and the Mets.
22:51
Tampa Bay, as you can see on the right side of the screen, not nearly as, uh, good as their schedule indicates.
22:58
Then it's a other two division opponents, Baltimore and Toronto, followed by the Athletics, again, the one game against the Dodgers at the end being the exception.
23:05
The Boston Red Sox at 80 to 1 is the play for the month of July. What say you about that? I like it. I like it. It looks like a easy-ish schedule.
23:16
I am a little, I'm a little shocked you're getting that long a number on them. What's the...
23:20
Y- uh, Gil, can you remember what, what's the biggest difference we've seen in number of games in a single month from most to least? This has gotta be it. Okay.
23:29
This has gotta be it, 'cause I, I don't remember this many makeup games being shoved into one month. I could be wrong about this. Mm. But this is our, I guess this is, what, our 16th month doing this? 16th month? Mm-hmm.
23:42
And again, the month with the fewest amount of games because of the All-Star break jammed into the middle of it, 28 games for the Cardinals cascading all the way down to 23, that's an insane...
23:53
And, and that's why when you handicap these months, that's the very first layer that you should look at with all of this. Yeah. Because you just have to know about the opportunities to begin with.
24:00
By the way, the Red Sox, I believe 26 games, if I'm not mistaken. 25. 25 games this month, pardon me, 25 games this month. So they're right kind of in the middle of all of that. Mm-hmm. Um, place your bets.
24:13
Again, available at William Hill Caesars, not quite yet at Circa, but I'm sure they'll have them up either today or tomorrow.
24:19
Uh, we'll come back, a little World Cup talk, and then Greg Peterson's gonna join us with his MLB Fab Five. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
24:26
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
24:37
Hey, don't forget about the Sharp Plays, unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, alerts directly from the pros. sharpplays.com.
24:48
You can scan the QR code on your screen for more information. We get tweets @beatofthebook. Always appreciate the, uh, feedback from everybody. This is from Reid Wilson. Wow, I didn't even see this this morning.
25:00
Uh, I knew, uh, in case anybody, all the tennis hardos missed it, uh, everybody knew about Emma Raducanu pulling out of Wimbledon yesterday. That was the big news on the ladies' side.
25:12
Uh, she was looking forward to playing on the ladies' side.
25:13
Well, James Gray reporting that Jack Draper is out of Wimbledon with a recurrence of his arm injury, was due to play Taylor Fritz tomorrow on center court, which was the best of all the first round match-ups on paper, and Jack Draper gone from Wimbledon before the tournament even begins.
25:32
I loved him in that quarter, um, but he doesn't even make it. This is two English players, by the way, Raducanu- Yeah... and Draper. I mean, that's a huge deal for, uh, for the natives there.
25:43
Both of their hopes on both sides don't even start their tournament. Uh, Jesse Welch, "All right, boys, I'm back after a week off down on Cape Cod, and I'm ready to go all in on the World Cup.
25:53
Did I [laughs] did I miss anything? Giannis is obviously onto my Celtics now, right?" [laughs] Uh, yeah. Chris Heath, "Thanks for bringing the good weather, Gill."
26:02
Yeah, I mean, Chris Heath, we were just talking about this last week, it's been June gloom here in San Francisco, so the fact that the sunshine is, uh, rearing its head was not, uh, expected.
26:12
Brian Point Shafer, "Remember when Wimbledon was aired on HBO? I believe it was 1979 to 1999." Yeah. Uh, Tronsky, "Hey, Gill, gotta love the beginning of Wimbledon in tandem with World Cup knockout stage.
26:24
I took a flyer on Giacomo over Osaka at plus 550 after her retirement in last week's final. Also took her for a set at plus 175 money back, uh, if Osaka retires. Thoughts? Also a subscriber."
26:36
Well, thank you for being a subscriber, Tronsky, by the way. Vsin.com/picks for all the tennis picks. Every show, every host, every guest, every sport, all their picks at vsin.com/picks for subscribers.
26:48
Um, it- I wouldn't read too much into retirements the week before a major, quite honestly.
26:53
Um, players just sort of tank those last matches for all kinds of reasons, and by tank, what I mean is, "Oh, you know, this is kind of bothering me. Maybe I should just head on over to Wimbledon already.
27:04
I don't really wanna play this match." So I don't know which r- which injuries are real and which are not. Worth a flyer? Sure. Um, but I wouldn't read too much into those pullouts.
27:14
Paulie68, "Wouldn't Detroit, wouldn't the Detroit Pistons maybe be a fit for Draymond Green? Trade a tough guy Stew, and Green is a Michigan State native, might be a decent fit." As good as any, I suppose. Sure.
27:26
Uh, for Dray- for Draymond, yeah. Or the Phoenix Suns- Um-... who just like to acquire anybody who went to Michigan State. That's, uh, that's Matt Ishbia's thing. [laughs] That's- So he, he did that yesterday...
27:34
that's their thing. So yeah, that's their thing. He, he could be on that list, too. Yeah, I, I will- I will r- I will say, Gill, I do want- Go ahead...
27:40
you know we were talking about it during the breaks, I think part of the reports, right, are the Warriors are gonna make this, this play for LeBron James and Anthony Davis perhaps.
27:48
Uh, Calci Odds, "LeBron James next team, even money the Golden State Warriors as of right now." Even money. The rumors are that the Warriors are going after LeBron and Anthony Davis. We'll see.
28:02
Will the Steph Curry, LeBron pairing happen finally after years and years of this, uh, you know, being sort of desired here in the Bay?
28:10
The, you know, the, the interesting thing about the Draymond thing, well, not the interesting thing, but I'll repeat what I always say about Draymond, which is I don't know what the equivalent is for him in any other sport, which is he was absolutely so key to the Warriors' four championships, four championships that could've very easily been six championships.
28:29
The Warriors dynasty, we throw that word around. That was actually a dynasty. They couldn't have done it without Draymond. They couldn't have. But I don't know a player that is so key to multiple championship teams.
28:41
I don't know what his value is to anyone else. He's such a specific player, and when in tandem with spreading the court with a guy like Steph and Klay for so many years, that's a huge deal.
28:53
I don't know if it's equivalent anywhere else. We'll see. Um, Draymond Green now a free agent for those who are wondering what we're talking about.
29:00
Kevin Downs, brother from another, that's what he calls me, "Did you see 60 Minutes about the military officer who made 300,000 off Polymarket for predicting Madur- the Maduro raid? Arrested for insider info."
29:12
Yeah, um, at the time we talked about it a little bit. I did not see the 60 Minutes piece, but I'm looking forward to seeing that, Kevin. Uh, Eric Biggio from William Hill Caesars, "Here's our answer, Kelly."
29:22
Apparently I didn't go to my DMs, um, this morning. Uh, he said, "Hey, Gill, sent you a chat message. Guess it didn't go through. As always, thank b- thank both of you guys for promoting the monthly wins.
29:32
Always a fun market." At William Hill Caesars, you ready for this? Nobody had the Marlins- Wow... in June at 75 to 1, although a bunch of people- [laughs]... uh, are taking a shot with them in July.
29:45
Yeah, you're gonna be a month too late, fellas, I think. Oh, man. Uh, so they were 75 to 1 at William Hill Caesars. They were 80 to 1 at Circa. Not a single human being had a ticket on them.
29:54
Well, you're, uh, you welcome Caesars and Circa, right, Gill? Yeah. When, when, when do we get our checks for this? When do we get our checks cut for, uh, promoting this market? That's right. Making this business.
30:03
That's absolutely right. [laughs] Uh, David Chalifour, "Yo, love the show. Always trailing you guys on country clubbing, golf, tennis, but when I hear monthly MLB bets, it's yacht rock time, baby. Happy summer."
30:13
You know, like the, uh, monthly wins apparently. Scott C, See Scotty Books: "Let's go. Welcome to Red Sox Nation for July, Gil. You can break out the Sox posters that adorned your dorm room [laughs] in college." No.
30:25
[laughs] No, no, they didn't. No, they didn't. Ah, it's a good call. Um, this is Insanity at, uh, Matteo3537: "Welcome back, Kelly. Like it. Took Sox, too. Threw in the Cubbies and Blue Jays as well. Good luck."
30:37
And then Chris Heath: "Dave Clark and Gil Alexander holding it down at the news desk in the Bay today." Uh, Dave Clark, I don't know who that is referenced. Maybe I should know who that is. Um, maybe a Bay Area news guy.
30:48
Kelly, uh, World Cup, the knockout stage is here. Yesterday it began, as I mentioned earlier. Canada, in, for, for those of us who had the draw in very gut-wrenching fashion- Oh, no...
30:59
score in the 90s- yeah, score in the nine- well, uh, I've hit so many of these, man. It's like, okay, it had to happen again. One other g- you know, one bad beat at, uh, or a second one during this tournament.
31:10
Uh, Canada scores in the 92nd minute, so they advance, uh, to the round of 16. They're the first, uh, country to do so. Um, they will play the winner of the third game today.
31:23
It's a triple header today beginning at 1:00 PM Eastern, second game at 4:30 PM Eastern, third at 9:00 PM Eastern. The winner of the 9:00 PM Eastern game plays Canada in the round of 16.
31:34
That's the Netherlands and Morocco. That's a great matchup in Guadalajara, um, where the draw is at plus 215 for those who have been playing draws randomly, as I have. And not just randomly, almost blanket nature.
31:48
Uh, first game today, Brazil-Japan in Houston. Winner of that will play the winner of Ivory Coast and Norway tomorrow in the round of 16.
31:56
And the game in between, the middle game today, Germany and Paraguay, uh, with Germany a, uh, large favorite in that one, a minus 295 favorite on the three-way. That's in Foxborough.
32:07
Winner of that game will play the winner of France and Sweden tomorrow. So, uh, we go from this group stage, which had its shenanigans, as group stages are want to do, and now it's simple knockout.
32:20
Any, uh, any bets added for you, by the way?
32:24
Yeah, I, I actually have added a couple here, Gil, and I think it's a good time to remind people, too, if we, we are getting out of this group stage, getting into the knockout stage, you're gonna see different markets listed for these soccer games, too, if you're not famil- as familiar with betting soccer.
32:36
I- Gil's gonna keep talking about the draws.
32:38
They even become more attractive to me now in that three-way line, because you can go into, you're gonna go into added time here, uh, if we have a tie at the end of 90 minutes. So just keep that in mind.
32:50
The three-way line will account for, for those 90-minute lines. Uh, you can hit that draw, and then it's gonna be completed afterwards.
32:57
So check out, if you wanna just bet to advance, that's always an option, uh, now in a two-way line for these games that you're gonna get g- moving forward.
33:04
So just wanted to remind everybody of the kind of change in rules that we get now we get, now that we're into the knockout stages. Uh, the one I did add, so for today, I'm interested in this Brazil-Japan over.
33:17
Haven't bet it yet, Gil, but that was a, those were two teams that kind of was look, I was looking at during the group stages scoring goals. Over two and a half, the under money keeps coming in. You get it at minus 105.
33:28
That one starts here in just a, just a couple hours. That's what I was looking at this morning.
33:32
The one future I added, though, and I do really like this with kind of how now that we have a bracket and we can kind of see how paths play out, I know this is one Drew was all over at the beginning of the World Cup.
33:43
I did add Argentina to make the semifinals at minus 125. Hmm. It's a pretty easy path for them to get to the semis on that side of the bracket. So I liked that. Shop around.
33:57
I saw that as high as, like, minus 180 last night. I was able to get a minus 125 on that number. So I liked that one. Is there anything else you added, uh, futures-wise or for bets today?
34:06
No, no futures-wise, but I will be betting the draw in the first and the third game.
34:11
In other words, not the Germany game, but in the Brazil-Japan match and in the Netherlands-Morocco match, I will be betting the pre-flop draw on both.
34:17
And let me just say this, uh, doing these shows from California this week and next week, um, I get to now bet on Kelsi again, and I get to bet on Profit X again.
34:30
Profit X, when it was a sweepstakes model, you used to be able to bet it, then it didn't work in California. Now it's back, uh, you know, sanctioned by the commodities exchange. Kelsi in full effect here as always.
34:42
And I just wanna say this, it is just, it opens your world to so much, and just from a, from, again, a, an interface, a user-friendly interface. Kelsi's so much more confusing and less intuitive than Profit X is.
34:56
Profit X is like every sports bettor that will jump on Profit X will immediately grasp what they're looking at, whereas Kelsi, you have all kinds of questions. "Wait, did I make that bet?" Yeah. "What's my odds?
35:07
I don't really get it." Um, Profit X is really intuitive, and it's almost as fun to ask for a price and get it filled as it is to win the bet yourself.
35:18
It's just a fascinating thing to, uh, be out in the open, out of Nevada, to be able to do this stuff again. Greg Peterson, baseball next. It's a num-
35:27
Want to play Circus Football Contest this season, but wa- [rock music]
35:51
A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on A Numbers Game live from San Francisco today and the rest of this week and next week as well. Gil Alexander, Kelly Midley back in, uh, Las Vegas.
36:05
Kelly Bidlin, of course. You can follow Kelly on Twitter @keleidielawn. Kelly back from vacation. Uh, Kelly, later this week, uh, you will be able to sit in with Crack- Yes... on Thursday.
36:15
That's gonna be a new experience. Love it. And then Steve, Steve Fezzik, though, on Friday, has told us on the group chat yesterday that, he's like, "Is this week July 4th?"
36:25
I'm like, "Well, yeah, it's Saturday, I think, right? July 4th is Saturday. Am I right about that?" Yeah. Four, yep. And he's like, "Yeah, I don't, I don't work July 4th week."
36:32
I'm like, "Wait, you need 36 hours to prepare for the excitement that is fireworks? You like fireworks that much?" And he- he's like, "Yeah, yeah, I can't do it." Oh. So Steve Fezzik, not coming in Friday. You know what?
36:42
You will not have that pleasure. You know what, Gil? Uh, at this point, it's just on us. I, I, I know it continu- Yeah...
36:47
it continuously surprises us, uh, wh- when Fezzik makes his request for his holidays off, but yeah, I- it's been like, it's been like four years now of like e- [laughs] When...
36:56
It's Thanksgiving, Christmas, 4th of July, right? I should know that. I should know that by now. He, he needs 36 hours to get in the right mindset for the glory, the wonder that is our 250th. By the way, 250. 250.
37:09
It's amazing. I mean, this... Well, this is a guy who looks forward to fireworks every single Friday, so imagine what July 4th is like, okay? Yeah. Happy birthday, America, by the way. 250.
37:19
I'm old enough to remember 200, Kelly. I remember 200. [laughs] I was single digits back then. Uh, Greg Peterson barely remembers 225, I'll tell you that much, but he knows what the slate is in Major League Baseball.
37:32
He joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Uh, you can follow him on Twitter at gunit_80. He joins us now with his beautiful background, as always, fully clothed. Greg Peterson. How you doing, Greg?
37:45
I'm doing great. And yeah, you guys were talking about it a little bit off air, the fact that the Miami Marlins had the best- Oh... record in all of June. They have locked that down.
37:55
Not something I saw coming, personally. Well, you know what? I, I, I thought I was gonna read this tweet, and somehow I skipped it, but someone mentioned that someone on our show, let me see if I can find it.
38:07
They thought that somebody said they came on and, and talked about the Marlins, but I believe what they're referring to is Joe Sheehan in May loved the Marlins, and bet the Marlins in May.
38:18
So he gets the added sort of kick in the rear, uh, with the Marlins doing this. By the way, it's not over yet. Marlins still have to get home. Their magic number at Circa is one.
38:28
Um, William Hill Caesars, there's still a dead heat possibility, but the M- but the Marlins are in the driver's seat, one win better than the Phillies, 18 and 6 to 17 and 8.
38:37
Um, and let me just repeat for everybody, Circa, not a single person bet on the Marlins at 80 to 1.
38:45
William Hill Caesars, a far vaster shop in terms of how many different brick-and-mortar outlets they have, uh, the number of states they're in, not one person had them at William Hill Caesars, and that probably doesn't surprise any of us, huh, Greg?
39:00
Yeah, that does not surprise me very much because, I mean, for the Miami Marlins, it's not even like this team is at full strength right now.
39:08
They've been throwing out there someone like a Ryan Gusto once every five days, and any team that's throwing out their Ryan Gusto once every five days, I'm probably not gonna have very high expectations for one of the lowest teams in terms of home runs on a per FP basis.
39:22
And their leader in home runs, Liam Hicks, is currently on the injured list. So that shows you how the Marlins are doing it.
39:29
I've sort of been calling them the Southeast version of the Milwaukee Brewers, the way that they've generated runs, they've gotten pitching out of random places. Good on them. Yeah.
39:39
Uh, by the way, I should, I should amend what I just said. I'm not surprised at Circa that nobody had them.
39:44
But the vast nature of William Hill Caesars, you just think by math alone, somebody, right, somebody, a Marlins fan maybe, is gonna randomly have picked the Marlins at that number, 75 to 1, 80 to 1 to win the month.
39:57
But there it is. Nobody is. Uh, nobody has, and we'll see if the, uh, Marlins actually get home. Let's talk about your picks today. Uh, the White Sox are taking on the Orioles.
40:06
The nice thing about having you on is that, uh, Mark Borchardt and I just did our Q2 derivatives show late last week. We are all rounding the bend now. We are at the halfway mark.
40:14
I know the All-Star break is a couple weeks away, but this is the halfway point of the Major League Baseball season.
40:19
So in all of these matchups, you can sort of think about how you felt about these teams at the beginning of the season and where they are now.
40:25
The White Sox, Greg, uh, in a virtual tie, percentage points ahead of the Cleveland Guardians, four games above 500 in the AL Central. By any measure, it has been a fantastic first half of the season for the White Sox.
40:39
And then there's the Orioles, right? The Orioles had... Uh, we had a lot of people saying they will win the division in the AL East. They're 39 and 46. They're 11 games out of the AL East lead.
40:48
Obviously, they have other designs on a, uh, wildcard position, but it's the White Sox and the Orioles today at Camden Yards, the ninth oldest park in baseball now. Heard that stat yesterday. I cannot believe that.
40:59
I remember when it was built. Ninth oldest ballpark in baseball. Orioles are a slight favorite. Who do you got here? I'm gonna be taking a shot here on the White Sox.
41:08
Yes, they have certainly been one of the biggest surprises for me all season long, and Sean Burke has been a big reason why. 371 ERA.
41:15
He's given up a little bit over a home run per nine innings with nine strikeouts per nine inn- He's been at his best away from home. That goes down to a 3.06 ERA away from home.
41:25
I trust in the White Sox lineup a little bit more. They've got the lower bullpen ERA. And for Shane Baz, he's been able to keep the ball in the yard. He's giving up less than one home run per nine innings.
41:34
But for Shane Baz as well, the command has been a little bit all over the place, three and a half walks per nine innings, getting fewer than eight strikeouts per nine innings.
41:41
And again, with that Orioles bullpen, Ryan Elsley since coming off the injured list, he's been a little bit of a mess for this team.
41:47
White Sox, I recognize that their bullpen can sometimes be a little bit less than trustworthy, but feels like they've found some good pieces in the back half of it.
41:55
Now, if you don't get Sean Burke and you see someone like Grant Taylor or something like that, they oftentimes do throw an opener for Sean Burke. You'll still be getting a mere, but do like the White Sox.
42:03
They have plus money on the money line. Tigers and Yankees today, Greg, with the Yankees just coming off the four-game sweep at the hands of the Red Sox at Fenway.
42:13
The Yankees find themselves now a game behind the Rays in the AL East, and the Tigers are in that proverbial, "Well, we're six and a half games out of a wildcard position.
42:24
Do we sell come trade deadline," which is August 3rd, which seems like still an eternity away. Uh, what do you have today in the Bronx?
42:33
Yeah, and I mean, pretty much every team in the American League is still alive for a playoff spot. I, I'm personally gonna eliminate the LA Angels. If the LA Angels make the playoffs, I'll just eat my hat and move on.
42:43
But that said, with the Tigers, I like them in this spot, because for the Yankees, you mentioned it, they lose on Sunday Night Baseball, they have to go to extra innings on Sunday Night Baseball.
42:52
After that late game, now they have to travel back home for this as well. And Casey Mize has been great for the Tigers.
42:58
2.95 ERA, 0.6 home runs, 2.2 walks allowed per nine innings, and Ryan Weathers is just giving up all sorts of hard contact right now. Giving up about 1.7 home runs per nine innings. His ERA has gone up to a 3.95.
43:11
For the Yankees, they were able to get a really nice start out of Carlos Rodón, but with the game going to extra innings, had to use up a little bit more of that bullpen than they were thinking as well.
43:20
And for the Yankees, going into Sunday Night Baseball, they had scored just 24 runs over the last 10 games. I believe they scored four runs yesterday, so that means last 11 games, they have scored 20 runs.
43:31
They're now really starting to miss Aaron Judge. So I took an under at eight. Right now, this is up to seven and a half in some spots.
43:37
Wouldn't be able to get there on a seven and a half under, but eight plus in on the under and the Tigers money line. Reds and Brewers today.
43:44
The good news for the Reds is they're the best last place team in all of baseball at 39 and 43. The bad news is, uh, none of their, uh, underlying numbers suggest that they should be quite that good at 39 and 43.
43:58
They're taking on the Brewers, who are every bit as good as their 50 and 31 record. How are you playing this today? I do like the over here. For Robert Gasser, he's struggled a little bit at the big league level.
44:09
Does seem like he's turning around into form a little bit. Has always been just an absolute menace at the triple A level.
44:14
But Nico Loaisiga, well, he needs to try to get his ERA on the low-low, because it has been above 4.50- [laughs]... all season long, and he's given up a lot of hard contact.
44:23
He's given up darn near two home runs per nine innings. And for the Brewers, they don't hit a lot of homers.
44:27
They're a bottom 16 in terms of home runs on a per at bat basis, and yet here they are averaging over 5.2 runs per game. They just small ball you to death. And for the Reds, they get back Elio De La Cruz.
44:38
Does look like that offense is able to fortify itself a little bit, and that Reds bullpen is not good. They're currently in the bottom eight in terms of ERA. So do think that you're gonna get some nice scoring here.
44:47
Like that nine to the over. Padres and Cubs. Man, Cubs, what could have been in the month of June. The total is set at 12 at Wrigley. I know you're playing that one way or the other.
44:59
Yes, and we're seeing it go down a little bit. I'm starting to see some 11, 11 and a halfs. But even at an 11, 11 and a half, I like the under.
45:06
The wind is gonna be blowing out, and it's gonna be blowing out relatively hard. But for the San Diego Padres, you should have Griffin Canning either start this game or be, like, some sort of a bulk pitcher for them.
45:15
It has not been good for him. But that said, the Chicago Cubs have your top two players in terms of men left on base in all of baseball, Ian Happ, along with Alex Bregman.
45:23
And Padres, they themselves, dead last in terms of run creation here in baseball, but a top three team in terms of bullpen area. Shohei Minaga had a really nice start to the season, really weighing.
45:32
Do think they get around to do a little bit of better form here. Just feel like that total's a little bit too high, so I took a shot on the under. All right.
45:39
We've been talking about the Marlins trying to clinch June, so we have to do a Marlins play here. Marlins Rockies, Greg. Do you think that the Marlins clinch circa June?
45:49
I do, and this opened up in some places as low as a minus 122. Now seeing this more around about a minus 135, minus 140. Still love it here. Sandy Alcantara, maybe he's on peak form, but not hurting himself.
46:00
One home run, 2.2 walks allowed per nine innings. And for the Rockies, they're sh- throwing out their Sean Sullivan. At a 560 ERA at the minor league level, here at the big league level, it's gone up to an 825.
46:11
Marlins doing a great job. Just give you some small ball, stealing some bags, be able to generate runs. Really good bullpen as well. So I like the Marlins here on the money line.
46:20
I'm certain the Marlins are very well aware of this title they're about to win, and we'll pop the champagne if that in fact happens, Greg. Greg Peterson, Greg, thank you so much. Appreciate it. Thank you.
46:30
Coming back, country club in Wimbledon, and the John Deere in golf
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