Search
Login
Sign Up
Jun 2, 2026
A Numbers Game | June 2, 2026 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | June 2, 2026 | Hour 2
00:00
45:13
1×
Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM channel 158. Gil Alexander. That's Kelly Bidlin. Oh. Hello, buddy.
0:20
Uh, hanging out, Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Drew Dincic will join us here momentarily, Mark Borcherd on baseball, and later Paul Carr, groups A, B, C, D, E, and F.
0:31
We'll save the other five groups for later in the week. Gi- Just breaking it down. Yeah, we're gonna have- For the World Cup... we're gonna split up groups, half today, half Friday with him.
0:40
Chris Fallica on the show on Friday. Ah, yes. We'll get all his World Cup thoughts. Okay. Belmont thoughts. [laughs] The Belmonts. And I did, uh- That's right, Belmont...
0:48
I did, we haven't really, we, you have, haven't exactly talked about this yet, but w- I did leave a little wiggle room at 9:30 if we need to keep Paul for a second one. Yes.
0:55
'Cause I don't know that we're gonna get through all those groups. It's well done. It's well done. By the way, uh, Jay Kahn was earlier. That's why I was, I was worried about that earlier.
1:01
Jay Kahn, I did a whole segment with Jay Kahn, he didn't, I don't think he said this out loud, but he is on Carter Hart over 28 and a half saves tonight. Well- In game one of the Stanley Cup Final...
1:11
you know, it'd be better if, uh, if Kelly Bidlin just asked him hockey question- questions instead of trying to make NBA parallels series. Oh, we have a tweet about that. Everything's gonna come... Oh, do we? Yes, we do.
1:21
John Massey, yeah, JT Massey 79, he says, "The slight pushback on that Spurs Knicks comparison for Cup Final is that Vegas beat the best team, the Avalanche, and is a dog in the Stanley Cup Final, as opposed to the Spurs beating the Thunder and being shorter than they should be favorite."
1:35
That is correct. That would be the difference. Yeah. Okay. Yeah, yeah. DJ Jams. Jams. I, I kinda wanna push back a little bit. I'm just gonna keep digging myself into a hole, though.
1:45
It'd be like the Spurs beat the Thunder, right? Like, wouldn't, wouldn't we say they were- No, you did well... very good team? He's poi- he j- he said it's a very slight pushback, he said. Okay. Uh, DJ Jams. Oh, DJ Jams.
1:55
I, I cautioned against this yesterday, but he, he said, he goes, "If Chet is still on OKC next year," in parentheses then he said, "which I doubt," Are we really, we're really shuttling him from the team already?
2:06
You, you and I never had this conversation yesterday. Well, I brought it up. Yeah, yeah. I said some people are, some people are saying this and it's kind of out of control.
2:12
But he says, "If Chet is still on OKC next year," he said, "he should ask out of his contract and go team up with, with Wemby in San Antonio. KD had it figured out years ago, if you can't beat them, join them."
2:22
I mean, look, he sucked. He sucked for basically the entire series. Yeah. If you're an OKC backer, you could not be happy about if you're an OKC fan. However, when we look toward the future, Gil- Of course, of course...
2:34
right? He's still very young, s- a lot of game to develop, and I know everybody wants to...
2:39
The, the answer, right, or the big question for years to come is how, is gonna be how do you slow down Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs? I, is there an obvious answer out there?
2:49
That like everybody's like, "Oh, well, trade Chet, let's move Chet." Who are you going to get? Who's the guy? It's the ultimate, uh, too quick of a reaction. R- yeah. Overreaction.
2:57
There's, there's not a guy, and then guess what? If you c- if you, if you check out the games not against the San Antonio Spurs that Chet Holmgren's played in his career, he's pretty dang good.
3:07
Also, maybe he'll- He's got a Wemby problem... also, maybe for the rest of his career, maybe he'll eat a sandwich or two. Y- maybe, maybe.
3:12
Chance Copperpot, "If Rafa Hodar has a small head and large body, does that mean Kelly has a small body and a large head?" Wow. He p- maybe, probably. I believe Mike Somich said that a couple weeks ago about me. So yeah.
3:25
And then Dallin Oaks, "Being that 60% plus of Super Bowl winners come from the 6/1 to 12/1 odds pre-season to win range, would you take the Rams at 6/1 at this point after the Miles Garrett trade?"
3:39
Um, I didn't make the bet, just to be honest with you yet, but I, uh, I understand the move from 8/1 to 6/1.
3:45
Of all these topics, by the way, minus the Hodar head size one, talking about, uh, Chet in the NBA, the Rams in the NFL, and of course, tennis.
3:56
Well, right in the wheelhouse of Drew Dincic, who joins us now- Yeah, yeah... courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter, whale_capper.
4:02
He's the co-host of the, well, two podcasts, Dincic Classic, which of course is the deep dive with Andy Molator, and then of course NBC Sports Bet the Edge, which he does with Jay Croucher.
4:12
He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Drewski, how you doing, man? Good. Uh, they're still playing tennis and basketball? [laughs] Sorry, man.
4:20
I thought we were solving, I thought we were onto the World Cup, guys. Yeah, where was that? And we're solving the World Cup. Let's go France. Yeah. Oh.
4:26
Yeah, we, we just got, you know, you know, just, uh, looking at my book for the month of May, it's not good. [laughs] Yeah.
4:31
The month of May 2026 will go down as the worst betting month I've had going back to September of 2024. Uh, don't ask me why I keep track month by month, but, uh, I do.
4:41
Um, we turn the page to June, and, uh, I got a big hole to fill, so I guess I gotta solve soccer. That should be easy, right? [laughs] It should be. Well, you came to the right place.
4:49
It s- sounds like something you should tackle. [laughs] Yes, a trio of experts here. That's right. I'm sure we can figure out this puzzle.
4:55
Paul Carr later on the show, though, for if you want to, uh, want to listen to that. Ooh, okay. Um, let's start- I keep hearing it's coming home, but I'm not sure if I believe that yet. We'll see.
5:03
C- can you give me- We'll see... can you give me 90 seconds to two minutes on the Belmont Stakes? Can we start with that and we'll crescendo? Of course.
5:10
Yeah, the Belmont Stakes looks awesome, like, like, am- like amazingly good. Um, it's being contested at Saratoga now for the third year while they continue to rebuild Belmont Park.
5:21
Um, next year it will be back at Belmont Park, as will be the Breeder's Cup next year, uh, in a, uh, uh, in a setting that if you haven't already seen the art, my goodness gracious, they built something pretty...
5:32
ridiculous, like cool looking, but like doesn't look like a racetrack. Um, anyway, the, uh, Saratoga is kind of one of the quintessential coolest places to watch a horse race on Earth.
5:44
Uh, and they will host the Belmont Stakes on Saturday in a, what is a super competitive field.
5:49
Um, if you take the highest quality horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby and you put them now in a smaller field and you rerun the race, same distance, uh, it would, uh, set up to be a much more fun and c- you know, like less chaotic experience.
6:04
Um, your draw was very neutral. Um, the favorite is Renegade. He, of course, would've been, uh, the heavy favorite in the Kentucky Derby if he had not drawn the rail.
6:14
Uh, he drew the four, which is a perfect draw for him. He is a closer. I think he wants to run off the pace and then make one consistent concerted run, uh, ridden by Irad Ortiz, who is the best jockey in North America.
6:26
Uh, he, uh, is the rightful favorite at two to one.
6:29
Uh, big question, though, is, you know, is, does he have enough of a closing kick to catch up to, uh, you know, some really high quality course, horses that will be closer to the pace, namely, uh, Chief Wallby and Commandment?
6:40
Um, I think those three horses are your best three horses in this field, and I think there's a gap after that. Uh, I have not mentioned the Kentucky Derby winner, Golden Tempo.
6:49
I would put him fourth in this field, uh, with a gap again between Commandment, Chief Wallby.
6:54
And, uh, and when you get to Golden Tempo, I think he was effectively extremely-- He had the perfect trip for his running style in the Kentucky Derby.
7:03
Uh, I don't think there's much a likelihood of a pace meltdown here that would kind of open the door for him to have that same type of trip in the Belmont. So he's a bet against that price.
7:11
Um, I think this really just comes down to can Renegade reel in Wallby and Commandment, or is this a, uh, kind of another, uh, chapter in the rivalry between Wallby and Commandment? I lean, uh, towards the latter.
7:23
I think, uh, I think Wallby's the better horse. I th- I love Belmont, obviously, and I think he wins the Belmont here on the way to, uh, just a spectacular summer and fall for his three-year-old campaign.
7:33
Uh, and I'll take, uh, Wallby over Commandment over Renegade. Okay. Wallby over Commandment over Renegade this weekend's, this Saturday's Belmont Stakes. Um, okay, to tennis.
7:44
Do you have any tennis left today, or did you make any bets for tomorrow? [sighs] [laughs] The French Open has been a disaster. [laughs] I'm sorry. I'm sorry, Drew. I'm sorry, man.
7:56
Can I, I- Wanna move on to something else? I hate, I hate to do this. We can move on. I hate to do this as this, uh, as the match is going on with Zverev here, but, like, Zverev over FAA is how this goes.
8:07
Um, and Zverev will have won a Slam finally, uh, but it will be a path that rivals a moderate 250.
8:17
Which is to say, like, I think you could go back through his career and find like a title he won in like Munich at some point- [laughs] At a 250 back then... where he faced a more difficult path- Wow...
8:26
to get to the title than he will have faced here. Even Hodare and Fonseca? Like this is absolutely ridiculous. Even that he'd have to go through Hodare and, and we assume Fonseca. I shouldn't assume that maybe.
8:35
Well- Yeah... Hodare's first ever French Open, man. [laughs] Yeah, I know. Like the fact that he got this far is, uh, is- No, and he-... it's a positive for the long term. And he- You know? Yeah.
8:43
But I agree with you with the Hodare part in terms of- Yeah... the court time logged is just ridiculous heading into this match. Yeah, he's, yeah. So this was, this was not really a match because of that.
8:51
This was not a fair fight. Yeah, this was not a fair fight. This was not a fair fight. Uh, Fonseca's not gonna be a fair fight either. Same kind of problem. Like Fonseca- It is true...
8:58
has been on court for- That's right... for like 10 years it feels like the last two to two weeks, so. So in that respect- Um, yeah, I mean... I'll give it to you. Yeah. Based on court time, yeah.
9:04
Yeah, I, I, I think Fonseca comes through tonight 3-1. Um, I don't know that, uh, um, the market is-- The market looked very, very sharp when I, uh, uh, when I pulled up on the Open.
9:16
Um, I don't even really have high confidence in, uh, in the other side of the draw either. I was kind of glibly saying FAA- Could be Berrettini, man... uh, comes through. Yeah.
9:27
Um, Berrettini, Jenson Berrettini, that's huge. That's, that's, that's really fun. Uh, he's playing well.
9:32
Uh, but yeah, hilarious that there's, that there are three Italians, uh, in, in the final four on the top half, no Sinner, uh, which is- And, and no Musetti... yeah, just like you drew it up. Yeah. No Sinner, no Musetti.
9:43
No Musetti. Yeah. We haven't really, we, we haven't really, um, uh, debriefed or done an autopsy on the Sinner loss, which was one of the most ridiculous things that's happened in t- tennis in my entire time watching it.
9:55
Um, never, never seen another, never seen a meltdown that severe, never seen, uh, a kind of a mismanagement of a player by a team at a professional level of the world number one that we did there.
10:08
Uh, I'm still stunned, uh, that they put him on court under the direct sun and expected anything other than what happened. I'm still stunned.
10:16
Uh, and if you don't know what I'm referring to, like they had the th- the world number one has, has not opened Philippe-Chatrier, uh, in, uh, in the last 25 years.
10:25
If you are under the direct sun, the midday sun there, it is not a good experience for any player.
10:30
They were so confident they were gonna beat Juan Manuel Cerundolo that they st- elected to have that slot of the daytime slots, which was just criminal malpractice knowing what you know about your player.
10:42
Um, and then to not have a plan in place for what to do if things went sideways, which was clearly what happened. Like, you know, they, they did, they didn't know what to do.
10:50
It was like they were, they were like shocked and stunned. "Wait, wait, wait. This, this guy has a problem with the heat? What?"
10:55
[laughs] Like it w- it was, it was really, really bizarre how unprepared they were for that.
11:00
And, you know, he doesn't go into the, uh, air conditioning to try to regroup before set five was another malpractice question mark I didn't understand.
11:07
Um, firing bullets in set four when he just needed to save it up for set five, not really trying to put any mileage or any damage into Cerundolo, uh, in set four or five was a question mark.
11:17
It was just a wild, weird meltdown from him, and I'm very, very disappointed. So, um, yeah, sad state of affairs of men's tennis right now that Zverev finally gets a ship.
11:25
But, uh, I don't think anyone's stopping him between now and the Center Slam. So much pressure on him. I mean, if not now, when? It's gotta be there Is there, though? There's nobody good left.
11:35
Well- [laughs] Everybody left is damaged or terrible... they're good, but as we said, they, they- It's crazy... logged so much more in.
11:41
Here's another one where he's getting off the court, like he's double parked outside. More with Drew on the other side. It's crazy. NFL, NBA, and he breaks down every group stage in the we- in the World Cup coming up.
11:52
You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home.
11:58
Pros win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline, and now so can you. VSiN Pro gives you access to the same real-time insights the sharps use.
12:06
No secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with VSiN Pro.
12:15
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Championship season is here, and VSiN Pro can help you bet it smarter.
12:32
For a limited time, lock in early bird pricing on our football season special for just $175. The sooner you sign up, the more value you get with full access to everything we do across every sport through the Super Bowl.
12:43
That means coverage for the NBA finals, Stanley Cup final, Belmont Stakes, MLB right now, plus early access to our 2026-'27 NFL betting guide coming June 22nd.
12:52
Wow, earlier than ever before to help you attack futures, win totals, division races in the upcoming season.
12:57
You also get daily best bets, real-time betting splits from DraftKings and Circa, AI-powered prop projections, 24/7 video on the VSiN Watch app, and season previews for college football, NHL, NBA, and more.
13:06
Head to vsin.com/subscribe now. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Sasha Zverev makes quick work of Rafa Nadal, the 19-year-old 7'6", 6'1", 6'3". Uh, he is on to the semis.
13:20
He wins his quarter, and as, uh, we've talked about many times, if not now, when? No Carlitos, no sinner. He's come close on several occasions, on a few occasions before in slam finals.
13:32
Had it on his racket at the US Open against, uh, Dominic Thiem to win it, and the one where, uh, Djokovic hit the, uh, the linesperson with the tennis ball and got disqualified.
13:42
Lost on a bad call, a lot, a lot on the strength of a bad call against Carlitos at the French. Um, this is it, two more matches. We'll see what happens with Sasha Zverev as he makes quick work of Rafa Nadal.
13:54
Again, the court time logged, such a huge issue in this matchup today. Um, back to Drew Dincic, who joins us now kind enough for a second segment.
14:02
Um, the big thing that happened yesterday, besides Serena's return in tennis, was the NFL, and Myles Garrett being traded from the Browns to the Rams for Jared Verse, a first, a second, and a third in subsequent seasons.
14:18
And I'm just curious, 'cause I wanna get to the NBA, but I wanna get your thoughts on this as we have our first football discussion with Drew this off-season.
14:27
Does this justify, the Myles Garrett acquisition, does it justify, in your opinion, the Rams now becoming the clear short shot to win the Super Bowl, NFC, division, all of the above? Uh, absolutely. Yeah, no question.
14:43
Um, they... It's a tough, it's a, s- this is, this is actually so fun to talk about, and I'm not just saying that 'cause it's football.
14:51
The Rams are one of the funner teams to price because, um, before this trade, it was a little... It wasn't like, uh, it wasn't a,
15:00
they'll take, but Rams were gonna be the number one power-rated team by almost anyone who put together numbers heading into the season. Um, now they're like number one with a bullet, right? Yeah.
15:10
This is a huge, huge, huge, uh, opportunity for them, obviously, to, to win a Super Bowl, second Super Bowl in LA, which would be hilarious. Um, the, um, the, uh,
15:23
the neutral power rating for me for the Rams before this move was just a sh- just a hair under six. Now with Garrett, it's a seven, threatening seven and a half.
15:33
Like this is rare air as far as a team on paper heading into a season. Um, I don't think I've ever gone into a season with a team this highly rated- Hmm... uh, going back to probably like,
15:46
I don't know, some of Colts, you know, Manning Colts, Brady Patriots type of teams- Wow... from back in the day when they just had so many, just absolute, like, like no question marks on paper.
15:56
Um, but the key point here is on paper. If this, if th- if every, if every team remains healthy all season, which we know will not happen, my fair price for the Rams to win the Super Bowl is five, plus 525 right now.
16:09
So if you even see six to one, I would say that's value.
16:12
Um, I very rarely, if ever, am playing the top of the board in June in football because there's just a humongous, you know, kind of cost of time, uh, of locking in that, uh, capital, you know, and not knowing what you're gonna get in terms of, um, you know, just surprises in the NFL, which happen every year.
16:33
Um, the... I don't even know the last time we had like wire-to-wire favorite preseason ended up winning. It was probably one of the Mahomes Chiefs teams.
16:40
But, um, even that was, you know, there was probably some, some of those years where you could've gotten them at a much better price in-season than the preseason price.
16:49
But, um, you know, I'd, I'd, I'd be, I will be surprised if the Rams go wire to wire because they are one of the more fragile teams that we have seen with this type of rare air pricing.
17:01
Um, Matthew Stafford 10 months ago, 10 months ago in August of 2025 was a question mark- Remember that?... to play again- Yep... in the NFL. [laughs] He is 38. He's coming off the best season of his, of his entire life.
17:16
Like, uh, okay, maybe he, maybe he, uh, fixed something in his, uh, in his training regimen [clears throat] that, uh, you know, kind of finally s- you know, kind of got him to where he could be, uh, you know, be a, a reliable, you know, week-in, week-out type of MVP performer, and that's gonna happen again this year.
17:34
Hey, Drew, I think you, I think you had something stuck in your throat, by the way. Maybe not. [laughs] Yeah.
17:40
I don't know what in the world that rejuvenation tank thing was, but, uh, you know, may- maybe medical, uh, medical drug science hasn't caught up to whatever they were ultimately doing in that thing.
17:51
Um, I'm just, I'm speculating here. But the, the fact of the matter is, in August of 2025, by, you know, people who were closely connected to the team were like- Yeah...
18:00
hmm, little bit of concern in the building that the Rams, that, that Stafford might just walk away from the sport. And now we're saying, like, well, he is...
18:07
We're so sure he is going to be available for 17 games and all of our playoff games that we are kind of putting all of our chips on the table to win this season. Um, I can't fault them for doing this.
18:18
Um, the, the, the top of the NFL right now is very flat. It is very, very not, you know, uninspiring right now.
18:25
Like, all of the best quarterbacks in the NFL are on teams that have huge question marks on other parts of their roster, um, and/or bad coaching [laughs] and/or, uh, new coaching, right?
18:36
Like, like, e- ev- everybody is, um, you know, has kind of demerits across the entire NFL right now.
18:43
Your chief rivals in division in the Seahawks took a step backwards with some of their personnel losses and their offensive coordinator leaving. So now is the perfect time to do this type of a move. Um, but, uh, the...
18:54
When you're, when you're putting together a price for an NFL team o- over the balance of the season and you're p- putting together a futures book, um, you want to...
19:01
Y- it's not a matter of how correct you are about the middle, right? It's not a matter of how correct you are about the average or median price for that team. It's about how correct you are about the bands, right?
19:13
Did you get the upside right? Did you get the downside right? And with the Rams, the upside is very narrow. And with the Rams, the downside is monumental.
19:24
We could wake up on October 1st and the br- and the thing you asked me about is, "So now that, uh, Stafford is done for the season- [laughs] "... and, uh, they hand the ball to Ty Simpson- Yeah...
19:34
are the Rams still the favorite?" [laughs] It's all it, it's all it takes.
19:36
Like, that is, that is very, very much in the, you know, the, um, you know, kind of d- you know, domain of outcomes here, which is to say putting 600, you know, you know, putting anything down at 600 to 1, even if it's small value now, um, has huge amount of, uh, downside to it.
19:53
So ultimately, do the Rams likely win the Super Bowl? I would say so.
19:57
I don't think that there's any other teams that to me look like they are coming out of the clouds and are gonna challenge them as far as we're the best team in the NFL.
20:04
Um, but, uh, you know, big losers in this were the Seahawks and the Niners in my opinion. Um, I think people are understating the, the impact Garrett is going to have on this team.
20:14
Um, a lot of people kind of feeling like, "Oh, I don't know. R- Reverse was a good player.
20:20
You know, Myles Garrett, I mean, he's the best defensive player in football, but, you know, how big was the margin between those two players?" [laughs] It was big. It's very big.
20:27
And, like, the fact that he is now on a defensive line that similarly to last year had a number of other players you had to account for, uh, so that you can't just, like, double, triple team Garrett and expect to, uh, you know, get away scot-free.
20:40
Like, he's, he is going to have another very successful season in my opinion rushing the passer, and I think overall the defense to me looks very complete as far as a roster build goes.
20:49
Which is to say the Rams now have a really high floor defense. So we're looking at a team with a high floor defense and a fragile offense and to, like...
20:59
Okay, that, that sounds like a lot of other teams in the NFL right now. Whereas, like, uh, you know, I, you can squint and see something similar with the Vikings.
21:08
Like, the Vikings are a high floor team on defense and kind of a question mark on offense with Kyler Murray now under center. Like, the, you can see something similar with the Texans.
21:18
The Texans have a humongously awesome defense that is high floor, a much softer division, and, uh, some question marks on offense, right? And, like, if...
21:28
You know, there are other teams that could very clearly, like, solve some things, come up with some answers on offense across the NFL paired with a high floor defense and be not that different than the Rams.
21:38
And so I don't think that this is a clear runaway that they're just gonna stomp, you know, all over the NFL this season and we're gonna, you know, regret not getting down at six to one in June of 2026.
21:48
But, uh, yeah, it's, it's, uh, it's fun to have a, uh, it's fun to have a team that's number one with a bullet. Uh, and- It is. It is...
21:54
it's fun that, uh, you have a team pushing their chips in, and, uh, I'm excited to see it play out.
21:58
Um, I only cut you off here because we only have a minute and I wanna, I do wanna get 60 seconds [laughs] of your NBA finals thoughts. Spurs and Knicks.
22:05
I think it's just Thu- You know, and I- The Thunder are just gonna win, guys. [laughs] Guys, the Thunder are just gonna win. Let's not overthink it.
22:10
Drew, I don't know if you, I don't know if you're aware of this, but, uh, Spurs- I was traveling this weekend and I missed, uh, the, uh, Western Conference Finals. The Thunder are, Thunder are, like, what?
22:18
Four, four, four, five, minus 500 against the Knicks I see. I watch a funny thing happened, Drew. Funny thing happened. [laughs] I mean, what do you think? Spurs in what?
22:27
I, I am so, I am so tempted to just shove Spurs right now. This, this minus four and a half price is not right. Spurs are six, six to six and a half points better than the Knicks at home.
22:39
Um, this is a huge, huge discount on the Spurs because of fatigue disadvantage and then how people are pricing that I assume. Um, I don't think the Spurs close at minus four and a half. I think that goes up.
22:50
Uh, and [clears throat] I may ultimately change my tune and try to try to find some time in the series to back the Knicks because they're a fun challenger but, uh, um, I don't know, man.
23:01
This feels like fire sale on the Spurs bet. Drew, I appreciate the thorough answer to the, uh, to the Myles Garrett stuff because you just got my football juices flowing, man. Yeah. [laughs] That's just, cannot wait.
23:11
Cannot wait. Thank you, Drew. Appreciate it. All right. Best of luck, guys. @whale_capper for Drew on Twitter. Mark Borchardt on baseball next on A Numbers Game.
23:19
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on A Numbers Game.
23:30
Don't forget about the sharp plays, unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting info, and alerts directly from the pros. Scan that QR code for more. Sharpplays.com.
23:42
We get tweets, beat in the book, always appreciated I do mean that. Oh, yeah, I say it every time, but I really am truly grateful for the best listeners in the game. Jesse Welch, listener on listener permission.
23:52
He says, "I'm giving the go-ahead to Brendan to hammer the Canes." You're welcome, Brendan. Good luck. There you go. There you go, Brendan, hammer them. Jesse's got- Rules for Society.
24:01
Rules for Society, "So glad Hodor lost. Hopefully I can stop thinking about Game of Thrones now." Hodor. I never watched that show. Yeah. I try- I tried to make that joke early on with Hodor. Uh, Dalen- God...
24:14
wire-to-wire winners all-time NFL. He says, "All time since 1977," not sure why he picked that year, 'cause we went to 16 games maybe, "only six of 49 Super Bowl champions, just 12%." What do you mean by wire-to-wire?
24:27
Yeah, it was my question. I'm not really sure what you mean. They, they never, they, they started out 1 and 0, they never trailed in their division kind of thing?
24:33
Since 2000, the preseason Super Bowl favorite has won just three times. Since 2009, he says, this happened only twice, Chiefs in 2019, the Patriots in 2018. I thought that was a fantastic breakdown from Jerky this year.
24:45
Oh, I do too. I do too. Like, just amazing. Yep. Everything about it was great. Uh, uh, just the, the, the, yes, best team in football. Did they get better? They got better. Yeah, it's football.
24:57
One injury and some things can go real south.
24:59
He, you and, you and me had the discussion in the very first segment or the second segment, I can't remember where we, and I, and it came down to, do you think it's a justifiable betting odds move? I said yes.
25:09
You were a little more- Mm... lukewarm on it. He gushed about the yes. Mm-hmm. But then he also points out, he goes, "The downside is horrific for them." Yeah. Yeah. Uh, let's talk some baseball.
25:19
Fantastic breakdown, 'cause he kind of agreed with both Gil and me, I guess. [laughs] Yeah. Mark Bor- Mark Borcherd joins us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. He's a base winner at Base Winner, basewinner.com.
25:28
Bet us, uh, bet us, Bet US, I should say, baseball betting show. He joins us now from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert, where he wants to talk some divisions with us. How you doing, Mark?
25:40
Gil, I'm doing good. Um, uh, I can barely hear you, but I, but I did- Oh...
25:43
hear you say, "I wanna talk about the division," and I, I definitely want to talk about the divisions, 'cause there's a lot of, like, really, I, for me at least, really good value. All right. Well, the floor is yours.
25:54
What do you got? We may jump on these things. Well, I'll, you know what? I, I'll just go down division by, by division 'cause there's a lot of good ones. So the first one's the, the Yankees, and they're minus...
26:03
I almost said the Jankees, but the- [laughs]... the Yankees, they're, [laughs] they're minus 220. I, I have them with an 82% chance to win that division.
26:12
Uh, the other one I like is the, uh, I, I like a lot of these teams. The, the Mariners are minus 170. I think that they, they're about 72% to win that division.
26:21
Um, and then the Brewers, that might be my favorite one, Gil. The Brewers I have winning that division 82% of the time. They're minus 165. So those are really good ones.
26:32
And then there, like, there's a, there's a market that's kind of fun, and if you model this stuff, uh, you can, you can model what the number one seeds are.
26:42
And so for the National League, the Brewers are plus 900 to be the number one seed, and, but based on my simulations, I think they should be plus 400. Uh, but the one that I thought was- Ooh, I like that...
26:54
was, was really interesting was, uh, was Philly. Philly is 40 to 1, and I think they should be, like, more like 13 to 1. Yeah. So there's, there's a bunch of plays out there.
27:04
I, I don't remember seeing this much value, uh, in, in the, in the division markets.
27:09
And then, uh, you know, if you go in and then the, then the Brewers one is, like, if you go in and the Cubs are five and a half back, they're kind of, like, their main competition.
27:17
All the components lead to the, except for the offense. Now, the Cob- Cubs are, like, fifth offense, and the Brewers are, like, nine, but the pitching is really, I mean, starkly favoring the Brewers.
27:27
So I, that's probably my favorite play of, of all of those plays I just gave out is the Brewers to win that division.
27:32
I'm gonna guess that the three and a half minutes that Mark Borcherd just had right there, or the three minutes, probably produced more bets in as many different directions right there as any three minutes you'll s- you'll hear today.
27:45
That's, that's awesome. All of them, I, I kind of like all of them. I like the Yankees. I like the Mariners. I like the Brewers to win that division, though I do like the Cubs this month.
27:52
Um, and the Brewers' number one seed, again, the Dodgers loom, but remember the Brewers had the best record last year, right, over the Dodgers. So I mean, uh, you don't have to look far to, to see that it can happen.
28:08
9 to 1. Mark has it at 4 to 1. Ab- about, by the way, did you model the month of June by any chance? I did. I did. My, my teams were, uh, Believe-land, your favorite, uh, but that wasn't my number one though.
28:20
Philly is probably my number one team, uh, and then Cleveland and then the Yankees. They all showed value on the sims. Yeah. Those are the three teams that showed the value. I had the Yankees as my two. Yeah.
28:30
I had the Yankees as my two.
28:31
Uh, did you, have you a model, I'm gonna put you on the spot here, because a bet that I am thinking of making, I alluded to this yes- alluded to this yesterday, is worst record in Major League Baseball.
28:42
Um, right now, if you look at the standings, it is a log jam at the bottom of the Major League, uh, standings. You have at, I'll get these, uh, right here. I'll just call it up.
28:52
This is, right now you have the Colorado Rockies 23 and 38, the LA Angels 23 and 38, the Detroit Tigers 23 and 38, and then a half game better, the Kansas City Royals 23 and 37, and the San Francisco Giants 23 and 37.
29:09
You know what I'm thinking about? The Giants are the third shot at a distant 14 to 1. Colorado and the Angels are the short shots. Who do you see value on there?
29:21
I can give you top five percentages, 'cause that'll put the Giants there, but it's really, it's really heavily weighted to those really crappy teams.
29:29
So I got 46% Rockies have the worst record, uh, 21% Angels, 11% Royals, uh, 10.55%, so another 11% Tigers, and then you could say the Giants are 6%.
29:42
So whatever that comes out to, uh, on, on the, on the money line, which I don't think it's, is good for your bet. But- Well-... that, those are the probabilities I have.
29:49
But let me ask you about that market, unlike the other ones which, you know, clear path to what you're talking about. In this one- There's is, there's the trade deadline, right?
29:58
And there's the notion of buyers and sellers. Your model doesn't factor that in, I'm guessing. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. I'm glad you brought that up because this, I, it, I can't. I can't predict the future- Right...
30:09
on what these teams are gonna do.
30:10
I mean, you could guess a little bit, but then you're, you're gonna be guessing, and I, I'd rather have it like, "Hey, this is what, based on the, these, these components of the team, how they're set up right now," and then you can take a look at those, those probabilities and say, well, like what you're doing, you're like, "Well, hey, the Giants are gonna unload.
30:27
They're not gonna have-" Yeah... their three best hitters," or whatever they're doing, and that, that makes a huge difference in it. So if it's close, then it would put it over the...
30:32
And I think it is pretty close from a probability standpoint, so. Yeah, 'cause I would- So I would agree with you on that, yeah.
30:36
Yeah, 'cause I would a- if the, if all rosters stayed the same throughout a season, I would agree with your numbers, but they are g- they are, they have to unload all of these players.
30:45
And I mean before the draft, not even the trade deadline. So, 'cause I think that- Who do you think they're gonna get rid of? I hate to put you on the spot, but who do you- Oh...
30:52
do you think they're gonna get rid of Webb and, and, and Devers? I don't know about Webb, but I, I think, first of all, Adames, first taker. Adames, see you later. Uh, Chapman is on the block.
31:02
I think if Devers, if they got a good enough offer for Devers, I think he'd go. I don't want them to get rid of Arias or, uh, or, uh, Lee, but you know what? Everybody's available.
31:12
Everybody's available for the right price. It, it's a complete fire sale. It's a complete dis- again, we were just talking with Drew about football.
31:19
There's a, you know, a, a h- if everything goes g- right, you know, right for you, if everything goes bad. I always say this about baseball.
31:24
In 162 games, there is a season that breaks everything your wa- right, everything your way. It's a g- g- best part of the spectrum.
31:31
Then there's a season where everything goes against you, and there's everything in between. The Giants are absolutely that. Everything they've touched, what's the opposite of gold? Whatever your word is, right?
31:42
That's what's happened with them. And so they just... By the way, Buster Posey, [laughs] he has not gotten criticism yet. Oh, it's coming if this continues, right?
31:51
Like, they've gotta really revamp and start from scratch. So that's, to me- Yeah, I think they g- I think they get a, a, a, a
31:57
p- a, some kinda cushion, maybe like a year or two cushion, and then they'll, then they'll get on it.
32:00
But I guess so, I guess my number's 6%, so that's like, uh, 15 to one, and then, but y- but if you put that in there, that'll, yeah, that'll go, that should give you value on that play.
32:09
That's, that's a decent i- that's a decent look, Gil. Okay. What'd you end up with today? Well, today, speaking of the Brewers and the Yankees, I'm gonna put them in a parlay, Gil, your favorite, the base winner parlay.
32:19
[laughs] But you know, it's fitting because you got base winner B-A-S-S before me, and then you got base winner, so you have your own version of a base winner parlay. But, uh, I, [laughs] I've got the Yankees just...
32:31
God, the, the components of this team are so good. Best hitting, uh, team in baseball. And then this is controversial, 'cause I know you don't like the Yankees' bullpen. I, I don't hate it.
32:40
I mean, I don't love them, but they're 11th in baseball. And, uh, then Schlitter's just been tremendous. The, all the granular l- numbers are on his side.
32:47
And you wanna talk about granular, granular numbers, Gil, uh, Kyle Harrison, the same thing.
32:53
And then, uh, one of the things that we have going, the Brewers and the Giants, is we have a big bullpen edge as well in that game.
32:59
So I think that parlaying those two, getting even money, I think that's a, that's a good look on that. Brewers, Yankees, even money parlay. Anything, uh, straightforward side you wanna share with us?
33:10
Yeah, I'm gonna go with the Diamondbacks here. And, and, uh, s- speaking of Diamondbacks, they're good to, to make the playoffs. They have about 54%, and you're still getting plus money in there.
33:19
But, uh, specifically today, you know the Dodgers, if you were to bet against the Dodgers on the road, just blanket betting, we always love to blanket bet, Gil.
33:27
[laughs] If you were just to bet the Dodgers on the road starting in 2025- Yeah... you'd be up 3.5%, which is decent in, in the, in the betting world. But today I've got the game priced at minus 141.
33:38
Uh, I, I like this, uh, this D-backs offense versus left-handed pitching. In fact, I like 'em so much they're rated number two in my ratings versus left-handed pitching, and that starts off with Marte and Carroll there.
33:51
You know, I've got them in a, in a side bet of to each get a hit, uh, and that's minus 140, and it should be, like, minus 186. So there's a lot of bets here, Gil. It's, uh, [laughs] Wow.
34:01
I've got Kelly, Kelly writing down fastly, but, uh- Yeah... uh, yeah, so that's, those are my plays. That's fantastic. Mark Borchardt, everybody. I don't even know if I said his name.
34:08
I just said base winner the whole time. Mark Borchardt. I like when he catches himself. He goes, "We all like blanket bets, Gil." That was great. That was a great line. [laughs] Thank you, Mark. Appreciate it.
34:16
My pleasure, Gil. Coming back on A Numbers Game. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:34
Back on A Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. That Mark Borchardt segment was great.
34:40
Oh, back-to-back bangers from Dizick and- Drew with, Drew with a, uh, soliloquy of analysis, followed by Borchardt just banging out bets. Mm-hmm. On Twitter, "Willie B Bettin.
34:53
Been a Tiafoe fan since I started tailing Gil's picks back in 2020 when I was still DGen Southern Jet." Oh, Willie B Bettin is DGen Southern Jet. I didn't know that. Whoa. What are you doing?
35:03
You gotta send out, like, a press release or something to the show- Seriously... when you're gonna switch Twitter names like that. Knowing his volatility, I wasn't surprised to see him lose a big lead.
35:09
The whole time, though, couldn't help but think Kelly mushed me. Wow. Well, that is your fault. That's fair. That's fair. That's fair. [laughs] I do, I do like me some Frances Tiafoe.
35:19
Chance Copperpot- I was disappointed yesterday... oh, two points away. Up five-two in the fourth and up five-four at 30 love, and we lose. Chance Copperpot, "I love the Brewers division winner, Mark.
35:29
Gonna pair that with the Hurricanes plus one and a half series spread. That makes a plus 116. Let's go." [laughs] Who was it?
35:38
Was it Chance was, was Chance the guy who did the, uh, Aubrey, Brandon Aubrey this drive ends- I think so, yeah... ends in a field goal attempt and the Spurs to win the championship. Good for him. Yeah.
35:51
Uh, waiting on the, uh, Joao Fonseca, Joao Fonseca- Joao... Jakub Mensik quarterfinal match. Any lean on that one? Um, I- They both have logged a ridiculous amount of time.
36:06
Their clay numbers are actually very comparable, but I just trust Fonseca a little more.
36:12
Wanna bet Men- it's, it's, you know, Hodari, you wanna bet him but you can't because of the, the time logged difference with him and Zverev. This one I just, I... You can't fade Fonseca right now.
36:22
Mensik is, is just, he was dead on the court two, two mat- two, three matches ago. Fonseca just appears to be able to make every shot on the court right now.
36:29
I, I really should not ever be commenting on anybody's fashion choices, but who is dressing John Isner during this, uh, during this tournament? Isner looks like a, a professor. Or- T- today he looks like, uh, man,
36:43
like, like a, a big university professor. He just couldn't hack it at the Ivy League level. [laughs] And then, like yesterday and the day before he was wearing like weird green suits. Did you like see?
36:55
It was like, it was like forest green. Sloane is wearing a hat. You went to- Sloane's got a hat on, yeah. You went to Isner? I went to Isner first 'cause he's had multiple violations in my opinion. Okay.
37:04
A- and, and I think I'm, I'm more capable of commenting on men's fashion. Sloane, that's, that's a choice with the hat. Good for you, though. Let's go country clubbing for real. Let's do it. At the club. At the club.
37:16
Yeah. [upbeat music] It's like Danny at the bar on Saturday night. Did I make that same joke during this yesterday? I think you did. I did, right? Yeah, same joke. Let's keep saying it. I couldn't remember what it was.
37:29
It's like- I can't get that out of my head for some reason. Do you wanna do an imitation of Danny Higgins at the bar? There was a little bit of this.
37:34
It was like this little shimmy, but he would, he would do it every like... He'd stop, right? He'd stop, have a sip. He'd talk to a couple people, and then I'd look over and he'd just be like for, for 30 seconds.
37:44
Ladies can't resist it. Right now, odd- It's cracking me up... right now odds to win the French Open, uh, as we're halfway through the quarterfinals with both Marta Kostyuk, our girl, and Mirra Andreeva advancing.
37:57
We got two matches more in the quarters tomorrow, Sabalenka versus Schneider, Kalinskaya versus Sviatelina. Those matches are tomorrow. Um, right now to win
38:08
the French Open women's side, Aryna Sabalenka, world number one, minus 145. Our girl Marta Kostyuk at 3 to 1, ever plus 405. Then it's Andreeva at plus 390. Keep in mind, Kostyuk and Andreeva are already through.
38:20
Then the drop-off, right? With one more match to play than those two. Schneider is gonna be a big dog against Sabalenka, 30 to 1. Kalinskaya, Sviatelina, coin flippy. Kalinskaya 35 to 1 to win the tournament. Sviatelina,
38:36
40 to 1. Kostyuk is our girl. That's all I gotta say. Still bettable at this number? What'd you get, plus 450? Plus 405. 405? I think 5 to 1s were available yesterday, though. But you're, you're what?
38:49
She's one win past the number you bet her at? Three to one is probably st- you'd probably still like that, right? I mean, I think she, I think she beats Andreeva. I think she wins the final. Again, best clay numbers.
39:00
Better than Iga's. This has never happened in the Iga era, right? Where someone had better clay numbers than her. She hasn't lo- Like in the past five years? Yeah. Wow. Since, since 2020, right?
39:10
She hasn't, she hasn't lost a clay match. She gets it done against Elina Svitolina in three sets today. So now again, that's my play.
39:21
I will have, already looking at the matches tomorrow, I will have a play on one of the women's matches tomorrow. That is for sure. That is for sure. Zverev out to minus 140 on the men's side now after that win.
39:32
After getting through, thus the tick up. Mm-hmm. Yeah. I don't know. I mean, that it's... With all these upsets, we knew somebody on one half of the bracket, right, is gonna be somebody who nobody expected.
39:46
FAA, Berrettini, someone of that ilk. I like the word ilk. And then there's Sascha Zverev and then Joao Fonseca who, again, if Joao can get by Mensik here, that is the, that's the semifinal clash that's in front of us.
39:59
Well, I'll, should let Joao get past Mensik first before we make that a thing.
40:02
But the, again, the l- you know, I get back to the logged time, just to give you some context 'cause we ta- talked about Hodara had over 17 hours before this match logged.
40:12
Fonseca has over 18 hours before this match logged. When Rafa Nadal was winning his 14 French Opens [laughs]... By the way, the Nadal docuseries on Netflix is phenomenal. Yeah? Oh my God, it's so good.
40:28
I'd add it to the list, but I'm so far behind already. It's so good. You... We had no idea. We knew he was, his body was always banged up. Mm-hmm. We had no idea. Oh, yeah.
40:37
He basically pla- he basically played tennis thinking it could end any day because he had a chronic foot thing. Because he's Rafa Nadal, and he was just meshugana about playing as much as he did as a kid- Mm-hmm...
40:49
he developed a rare sort of foot issue, and it just, he just never knew when it would end his career. So he just played as if this was, you know, he never knew when the end was coming. Too much sliding on the clay.
41:00
He just got that down to a- Well, he would just, he would hit... To- Toni Nadal, his, his uncle, would just, him and, they would just work and work and work and, and he had the personality where he wanted to be pushed.
41:11
Right. So he just never stopped. N- I... Nadal was awesome. I always wonder that about, like, the, you know, you do have, you have the athletes that get docuseries, do- Yeah... documentaries made out of them, right?
41:19
The, ooh, the guys you never hear any of that about after their career, and you just, you're left to wonder, you know?
41:25
Anyway, the context that I'm trying to get at is when he would w- some of those French Opens he won, his total logged time through seven matches was 12 hours. Geez. And these guys, before the quarters, are at 17 and 18.
41:41
Yeah. Yeah, it's amazing. Uh, Trip Tepper, "The biggest reason Tiafoe plays a lot of four-plus hour matches is WTA level serve speeds. [laughs] He can't win easy points on his serve, so his matches have a ton of rallies.
41:53
Also, he's the rare home road split of tennis players. He just plays better on American soil." Yeah. La- last check, there's not a ton of big time tournaments in the US. On the hard court. Yeah.
42:05
Um, to the Memorial- Yeah... this week in golf. Again, uh, not the tournament before the US Open, but the tournament before the tournament, before the US Open. Long Shots recorded last night.
42:15
Wyatt Tomchek editing it right now, I believe, so it'll be out a little bit earlier, uh, this week. And it is the, uh, Scottie Scheffler Invitational once again, Gil. [smacks lips] Uh, 72 players in the field.
42:26
Well, we say that, but he's not winning. No, I know. We say, we say it, but he's not winning. So 72 players. We talked about this yesterday. I think he was plus 270 when we looked at this yesterday.
42:35
Out to 310, which I think makes sense. A- as Gil's brought up several times, you're not, he's not winning.
42:42
He's getting so close, but he's not winning, even though the stat profile looks much like it has the past couple years.
42:47
Those win- Making, making 700K to a million every week [laughs] Those wins aren't getting home, so this price is drifting a bit. Uh, I thought it was a very interesting conversation on Long Shots yesterday.
42:57
I think all three of us kind of saw the top of the board slightly different. Scheffler's won this event, though, the past two years.
43:04
There is, got this nugget from Rick Gamin, with at least five starts at a tournament, there is no better golfer on any course than Scottie Scheffler at the Memorial, uh- Wow... at Muirfield Village here. Wow.
43:17
So yeah, it's, it is Scottie Scheffler's best course, [laughs] and Scottie Scheffler is playing good golf right now in a- I did not know that... yeah, in a field- That's his best course... of only 72.
43:28
And it is, we talk about this often. When you, when I look, look to bet, Scheffler is at tougher events. This is a tough event.
43:35
Outside of majors, this is the third toughest course that these guys have seen, uh, over the past five years. Annually, one of the toughest. Talk about this. I'll go through my full card tomorrow.
43:45
The way I'm attacking outrights, though, Scheffler is very much in mind. You might remember before the PGA, Gil, I bet the winner without market of Scheffler, Rory, Fitzpatrick, and Cameron Young.
43:58
It's kind of how I'm viewing this th- this week.
44:01
Scheffler's really good, but I don't think we can forget about some of the names that are right below him that have been very, very good here re- uh, recently and over the past couple months.
44:10
Cameron Young, multiple wins. Matt Fitzpatrick, multiple wins. Rory McIlroy, a win at the Masters. Ludvig playing great golf, just not getting over the finish line.
44:19
Uh, so look, I, I played, I had no intention of playing Matt Fitzpatrick in the outright market. I did this week. His numbers read out very good, well for me. I think you could find him in mid-20s places.
44:30
I think at 22 to 1, 23 to 1, he's a good bet. Uh, and then I went long. We brought him up yesterday. It was the first name Wes mentioned yesterday.
44:37
He was the first name that I looked at after, uh, the conclusion of last week's event, Justin Thomas. You can find him in the 30s. I was able to get him at 40 to 1. He is being heavily bet, though.
44:47
His game really coming together here over the past few weeks. I think looking for those guys with high upside, Hideki Matsuyama even, I think there's some good options here a little bit longer.
44:57
All right, when we come back, NBA Finals props, total points, three-pointers made, rebounds, assists, and then Paul Carr, six of the 12 groups A through F. We will break it down in the World Cup.
45:10
It's a numbers game at Visa, the Sports Betting Network.
A Numbers Game
Listen on
Apple Podcasts
Apple Podcasts
Pocket Casts
Pocket Casts
Castro
Castro
Recent episodes
A Numbers Game | September 17, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 17, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
