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Jun 30, 2025
A Numbers Game | June 30, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | June 30, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. So, all those idiots who believe in analytics- This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin, everybody. Heyo.
0:19
Producer number nine, so much more than a producer. Uh, Wes Reynolds standing by to, uh, chat us up here momentarily.
0:26
Um, and I just wanna let you know, uh, Joe C, by the way, we should thank Joe C, one of our, uh, one of our listeners, who has come bearing gifts once again.
0:36
Uh, Carlitos', uh, signed tennis ball, and I guess a Novak one as well, or authenticated tennis balls. I'm not sure what they are here. They, we haven't looked- Yeah, we-... in detail...
0:44
we didn't get a g- good look at 'em yet. But just wanna thank him very much for that. Um, going to the, uh, Dodgers-Giants game at Oracle in a couple weekends, and I, I found out that it's Barry Bonds bobblehead day.
0:56
So immediately I dive into the research. The first 20,000 fans get a Barry Bonds bobblehead, and then the next question is, when do the doors open? It opens two hours before game time.
1:09
So Deborah Song, fashion stylist, says to me, she goes, "You really wanna go to a game two hours beforehand?" And I'm like, [laughs] "Yeah." Barry Bonds bobblehead. Yeah. Yeah.
1:18
[laughs] It's like, I've never felt more like a child. Like, yeah, I do. I w- we really need another knick-knack in the apartment. [laughs] That one. [laughs] That one's a very- It's very adult...
1:27
you can probably order one online really quick too, but [laughs] Yeah, that's true. That's, and then she pointed that out. She of course went to eBay. She's like, "It's, costs nothing." I'm like, "Oh, okay, never mind."
1:35
That's a fair response. Did, did I ever tell you my Barry Bonds story? Might have to wait for another time. Wes is, Wes is on the line. You have a Barry Bonds story? Eh, like sort of. It's kind of a long story though.
1:43
It was at a Marlins game. Oh. Oh, all right. Did he look at you, like, and y- and you got the vibe of don't- I, I would've. I can tell it really quick. Yeah. Okay, it's a Marlins game in the dead of summer.
1:51
There's nobody there, okay? They're trying to get, like, it's a seventh inning stretch. They're going around the s- I'm probably, like, 13, okay?
1:57
They're going around the stadium trying to get kids to go out on the field for, like, a dizzy bat contest that they're gonna do during the seventh inning stretch.
2:04
There weren't enough kids, like, in the stands, Gil, that I got selected. I was way too old. It was, like, me and a bunch of, like, six, seven-year-olds. I was, like, 13 at the time, okay? Yeah.
2:13
G- I'm the only reason I'm at the game is 'cause they're playing the Giants. Barry Bonds is playing, right? So right down, uh, third baseline, we're doing this dizzy bat contest.
2:21
Of course, I kill all these kids, even, you know, I'm, like, eight years older than them. Um, and then Barry Bonds is running out to t- uh, take his position.
2:28
I just go up and kinda dap him up real quick, and he was laughing. He was laughing as in- He, he, he-... he was laughing at the idea of me participating in this dizzy bat contest. [laughs] He dapped him up.
2:35
Yeah, yeah, it was cool. It was really awesome. Uh, Wes Reynolds joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @WesReynolds1.
2:42
That's the number one part of the glue that holds this whole operation together. How you doing, Wes? I'm well, Gil. So, uh, Kelly was dominating those kids like, uh, Kramer in the, uh, taekwondo class.
2:52
[laughs] It was exactly that, Wes. So I wasn't worried. [laughs] You're, you're beating up children? I'm dominating. Yes. I'm dominating. It was exactly that, Wes. [laughs] It's exactly what it was.
3:02
Uh, let me ask you about this Malik Beasley story.
3:06
Uh, for those who missed it, Malise- Malik Beasley, who had a, just a sensational year for the Detroit Pistons, uh, this past year, one three-pointer made shy of Ant Edwards leading the league in three-pointers made, uh, this past, this past year.
3:22
Um, being investigated, federal investigation for, um, irregular gambling activity that we don't really know any of the details beyond that.
3:32
The one detail that showed up in an ESPN piece, and, and some other pieces now have carried it, is there was a game this year where his rebounding prop was at two and a half.
3:42
The under got steamed, and he ended up with six rebounds. So just based on that detail alone, you're kinda like, "Wait, what? That doesn't sound like he's doing anything wrong."
3:52
Um, or, I mean, unless it was a fake-out on a prop, which doesn't seem like a, you know, you could be so liquid to do a, a fake-out on a prop.
4:01
Uh, but there were some other videos that appeared, I don't know if you saw these, the guys, where then you do start to sort of be like, "Well, I don't know. Was that a thing right there?"
4:10
'Cause w- w- we'll learn more details on this stuff. Um, but r- he's in the middle of negotiating a three-year, $42 million deal with the Pistons. That is now on pause, uh, because of this.
4:23
Uh, the games in question, there was a game in 2024 where they, you know, th- there were videos on Twitter of this, of, of Tyrese Haliburton just blowing by him with just over six minutes left down seven. Hmm.
4:35
Maybe the more incriminating ones, February 9th, 2021, this Clippers game. Nick- Nicolas Batum at the line gave the Clippers a 119 to 110 lead with six, excuse me, with five seconds left.
4:47
Then Beasley sprints coast to coast, sprints down nine, and has a layup to cut it to seven with 0.4 seconds left.
4:58
The spread that morning, based on my research, was 10 and a half, which wouldn't have played in, but the stories I'm hearing is that it maybe it moved to eight and a half, and it did matter.
5:08
And then the last one is the more recent one, May 1st, first round NBA playoffs this year, game six, the clincher at Detroit, Knicks favored by either one and a half or two and a half.
5:16
Knicks up three, 116-113, less than two seconds left. Cade Cunningham passes it. You may recall this. Ball bounces right off- Whoops... Beasley out of bounds. Yeah. Wes, where there's smoke, there's fire, you think?
5:28
Or wait to hear the details on this from the feds? Yeah. I, I, I think there could be, Gil. I mean, you, you mentioned that one game where he r- he quote unquote ran the cover play- Yes...
5:37
as, uh, Stanford Steve would, uh, would often say. And, um, you know, sometimes we like it when the guys run the cover play for us late.
5:44
But, you know, I was perusing, uh, through social media, and I saw a picture, and I never know if these are authentic or not, but, uh, that, uh, Malik Beasley on the Gram was following a FanDuel sportsbook.
5:56
Uh, so, you know, I, I don't know if, uh, if somebody could have maybe faked that photo, but there's certainly some curious, uh, things that have happened here, including the stories that you mentioned.
6:06
And, you know, I've been getting m- more involved in NBA player props o- over the last couple years and found that I'd done better in them than maybe, uh, pre-game sides and totals with the NBA.
6:16
And, you know, I probably have had a couple Malik Beasley bets because he's a chucker. He's an absolute chucker when he, when he gets in there. He's not gonna be bashful about getting his shots, okay?
6:27
He's not gonna just be, "Oh, I'm within the confines of the offense." No, if he's got a little space, he's firing it up. And a lot of times that's what you want certain guys, those three and D type players to do.
6:38
But it doesn't necessarily surprise me. Obviously, you know, innocent until proven guilty. Yes. I, I still think we abide by that in this country. I don't know.
6:46
But, uh, nevertheless, uh, you know, they, they have to look into it obviously, and they have to do their due diligence and their investigation.
6:54
But, uh, uh, y- there's certainly at least something, something something there. This- Yeah. Go ahead. I'm sorry. No, I, I, I think this is fascinating. I'm going to be very...
7:05
I think we're jumping to, to, we, we see these stories pop up- I-... and we want to jump to conclusions I agree with this.
7:11
There is a massive, massive difference in the lack of evidence at least that's being reported- Yes... in this story compared to what we saw with a Jontay Porter. Well, this is the distinction I- And it's not even close.
7:22
The, the other distinction I wanted to make was exactly with, so Jontay Porter, a guy who is not making millions upon millions of dollars, Jontay Porter, the younger brother of Michael Porter Jr., banned for life from the NBA, uh, discovered that he was involved in some, uh, prop play, if you will.
7:41
That's one thing. Terry Rozier, who also is being investigated to this day, but has never been charged with anything, and Malik Beasley fall into a different category of player who make millions of dollars, right?
7:56
And so it does beg the question of why on earth would either of those two guys do anything like this beyond just sheer stupidity? Uh, excuse my French, right?
8:07
Because that's a totally different thing and, and is harder, is much harder to believe. So we'll see. I think you're right, Kelly. It's, it's a, we, we do tend to jump to the conclusion.
8:19
We may find out, you're right, based on what's being reported thus far, 'cause that rebounding prop- That, that-... doesn't, doesn't drive this home at all.
8:25
And Gil, that is the one, that is the one instance that in the multiple reports that I've pulled up, that's the only one that's being, going into specifics. The only one. That's right.
8:33
So what, the under gets steamed and he goes over? On a prop? Like a fake out on a prop? Really? Like- Like for, for those of us that understand betting- Yeah... like that doesn't make sense. Yeah.
8:42
[laughs] Walters is pulling the head fake on NBA props now, right Gil? Yeah, exactly. Bill- [laughs] Stay tuned for 60 Minutes this week where we find that out.
8:51
For, for the, uh, $200, for the $200 they'll let him get down. Yeah. Right. Yeah. Look, I'm not saying this is not possibly something here.
8:58
I was just surprised with some of the reporting I saw yesterday of like, okay, this feels a little light. Yeah.
9:03
The, the one that I talked about, the sprint to the bucket with five seconds left, like that one if the spread is in fact in favor, 'cause again, I saw 10 and a half, uh, from what I researched on that, which wouldn't have played, but, but other reports say it was eight and a half by game time.
9:16
That would be a fake out that maybe would've mattered. Yeah. That would've been a different story. Yeah. So we'll see if that's part of it. Um, anyway, did you have,
9:25
did you have Griessman this past weekend, or did you have the ultimate winner? I had Michael Chorvatskin, who was one out of the playoff.
9:34
Uh, did not have to go through the playoff pain unfortunately that our mate Kelly did with, uh, Max Griessman. But it was Aldrich Potgieter who I had in the playoff earlier this year when he lost in Mexico.
9:46
Remember when he was, uh- Yes... playing the jour- the journeyman Brian Campbell in the playoff who hits one of the worst tee shots you'll ever see, off the tree, back into the fairway, and Campbell wins the playoff.
9:56
And you know, I'm watching this yesterday 'cause I'm obviously pulling for Kelly to get home, and, and I have, I don't have anything on Potgieter. I'm like, now Potgieter putts this great in the playoff.
10:06
He certainly didn't in the Mexico Open, uh, when I had him. But this is a young 20-year-old South African kid that hits it a mile. He is number one in driving distance, even hits it farther than Rory.
10:17
He's out there with Bryson in terms of driving distance, and that's what you do at Detroit. There's no hazards.
10:23
You just grip it and rip it off the tee, and you've got these short wedges, and that's right in Potgieter's wheelhouse. Yeah. W- Wes is- 20 years old. Amazing. It's wild. Yeah. Yeah.
10:32
You went to the playoff yesterday, it was 20, w- 20-year-old, a 30-year-old, and a 40-year-old all in the playoff.
10:37
Uh, Wes, is he someone we've gotta start looking at where I, like, I mean, I'm not gonna say he's put together a b- a bunch of great consistent finishes this year, but on the tracks that we can know that we need bombers at, is he someone we kinda need to be looking at no matter how he's been, been in recent form now?
10:54
Probably so, Kelly. And he's got amateur pedigree too. Like, this is a guy that won the amateur championship, which is essentially the British Amateur.
11:02
So he was thought to have some expectations, like, okay, this guy's gonna be somebody you wanna watch out for.
11:08
You need to see more consistency because even though this course fit him, reason why I didn't play him, you see all these missed cuts and all these, you know, 68th and tied for 70th and all this stuff.
11:19
So I'm like, eh, he's not right there to contend. He just doesn't fit the form, but certainly did fit the course. So yeah, I think we are gonna have to be looking out for him on these, you know, bomber type tracks.
11:30
If, if João Fonseca is the guy, like, coming up behind Alcaraz in center and tennis, who's the guy in golf that's the buzz name? Oh gosh, there, there's a bunch, but I would say a bunch before Potgieter, right Wes?
11:40
That's why I'm asking. Yeah. Yes. Yes. All right. We'll get into some of those names on the other side, and more with Wes Reynolds. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:48
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
Don't forget to check out sharpplays.com, unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, and alerts directly from the pros. We invite you to
12:12
take a look at the sharp plays at sharpplays.com. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bilin, um, that Jalen Ramsey trade, my question was, well, what'd they trade for Jalen Ramsey?
12:22
The answer is Minkah Fitzpatrick goes back to the Dolphins. Wow. Excuse me. Uh, yeah, back to the Dolphins from the Steelers.
12:29
So had a really nice career with the, uh, with the Dolphins beforehand before becoming a Pittsburgh Steeler.
12:35
Um- And so Ramsey is now a Steeler, Fitzpatrick is a Dolphin, and now we are learning that Jonnu Smith is also going from the Dolphins to the Steelers? Yeah, [laughs] Jonnu Smith also.
12:47
But we don't, we don't know if it's the same trade or not. I, I believe it's a separate one.
12:51
Uh, in a move that will see the two teams swap late round picks, Smith is also getting a one-year, $12 million contract extension according to his agent. Okay. There you go. Um, let's bring in Wes Reynolds once again.
13:04
WesReynolds1, uh, is where you can find him on Twitter, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line here with us, and of course co-host of Long Shots.
13:11
Before we get into football, 'cause I wanna get your reaction to the Finks- uh, to the Fitzpatrick-Ramsey trade, and then, uh, have at least one of your props from the NFL betting guide.
13:19
But just to wrap up the golf question from before, if t- if the tennis world feels like Joao Fonseca is the next guy coming up after Sinner and Alcaraz as, as the great, the next great thing, golf you said it's not necessarily Potgieter.
13:34
Who is it? Potgieter, who we were talking about l- at the end of last segment, he had made five of 14 cuts this year, but two of those appearances are a win and a runner-up in a playoff.
13:46
So, uh, you know, does have some win equity. But I don't think there's like one guy, Gil. I think there's a few guys.
13:51
It, it's, it's tough to say like, you know, "Hey, watch out for Ludvig Aubert," because he has one already and he's number 10 in the world golf rankings. But, you know, that's a guy that I think people point to.
14:02
It seems like there's a new guy every year. Kelly mentioned a couple. Yeah. You know, Luke Clanton, who got on the tour from PGA Tour U, which Ludvig did, uh, uh, the year before.
14:12
So there's a lot of young guys out there, and, and, b- b- but the thing is, you're very slow to, I think, crown these guys. Because for every single one that hits, there's a Ty Tryon, if you remember that name. Mm-hmm.
14:25
Remember the young prodigy Ty Tryon from many years ago, who never was able to stick and neighbor a- able to live up to, I think, those lofty expectations that, that he had.
14:35
So there's several of those, uh, of those guys, I think, out there around the world.
14:39
Trystan Lawrence, another young South African who's been in contention in a couple majors, including a couple weeks ago at Oakmont, is certainly somebody that I think has high profile as a young player.
14:50
Rasmus Nørgaard Pedersen, the Dane, uh, uh, who plays mainly on the DP World Tour. But there's so many of these guys, Gil, uh, around the world. And it's a shame we don't have more on one tour in the game of golf. Yeah.
15:02
That's what the real shame of this whole thing is. But yeah, there's always new guys that are coming along the pike. Yeah. I mean, I would br- I would throw out the Hoagard brothers, too, right?
15:11
Rasmus and Nicolai probably in that group. But yeah, I think it is, it is tough. You know, W- Wes, 'cause you said, like I think Ludvig is where you'd start that answer at.
15:19
But is it, I don't know, is he too qualified already? And I think Luke Clanton's probably on the other end, where he hasn't done anything yet. But you know what's the best indicator to answer this question?
15:29
Is how the sports books react. Yeah. 'Cause it, it is... I, I mean you're not seeing Luke Clanton at 200 to 1, right, Wes? Like we're seeing a- Yeah.
15:36
He's playing John Deere Classic this week upstairs at 30 to 1 on him right now. The kid hasn't done anything on the PGA Tour yet. Well, I also feel like in golf, whether- Yeah...
15:43
whether like the Zalatorises of the world- Yeah... like they, they get to a ceiling, and then they bang their head against the ceiling and can't quite get to the Scheffler.
15:49
Or, or bang their back multiple times against the ceiling, yeah. [laughs] Or, or that. Yeah, or can't get to the Scheffler, to McIlroy, uh, status of that. Um, okay, what about the Fitzpatrick-Ramsey trade?
15:59
Your reaction to that, Wes. Well, uh, you know, it is interesting, because we thought it was just gonna be player for player, but then apparently Jonnu Smith is, uh, thrown in here.
16:09
Jonnu Smith, by the way, was with Arthur Smith, the Steelers' offensive coordinator in Tennessee, was also with him in Atlanta.
16:16
So that move like makes sense from that standpoint, because sometimes players, you know, get attached with the coach and, you know, tend to, tend to flourish more under, uh, that particular coach.
16:25
But yeah, you usually don't see star corner that's a little bit older, like Ramsey, with Minkah Fitzpatrick, uh, you know, now [laughs] going back to Miami.
16:35
So, you know, Steelers, I guess, you know, they think that the, they think that they're right there, Gil. Yeah.
16:40
And, you know, I'm not sure necessarily that they are, but based on the moves that they're making, you know, a- acquiring Ramsey, acquiring D.K. Metcalf, acquiring Darius Slay, let alone Aaron Rodgers.
16:53
So the Steelers must think that they're right there.
16:56
Uh, uh, you know, I think the Ravens are clearly the team to beat in that, in that AFC North, and I think Cincinnati is certainly due for a bounce back year, uh, after the, the injuries they had. They were disappointing.
17:07
I think that they're a strong candidate to be a bounce back. But, you know, the, the, the Steelers, they, they find ways somehow to get in the playoffs, you know.
17:15
Whether it's, you know, by accident or by defense, I think it's gonna be mainly by defense if they get back. Because that defense, you look up and down with T.J. Watt and, and, and company, that's a very good defense.
17:27
Uh, offensively, I don't know if that quarterback, how much more he has left in him, though. Well, let's just, before we move on, let me just ask this question, because I think it does need to be asked.
17:36
People like me, right, are dismissive of Aaron Rodgers. Like, "Oh my God, why do we think he's even good? It's been so long. He had the Achilles. I mean, why, why do we think he can return to glory?"
17:45
But would it be all that outrageous if he had one more good campaign in him? I guess it wouldn't be a shock. Now, you don't expect that he's gonna put up, uh, you know, Mahomes or Burrow type numbers.
18:01
But, you know, could certainly be efficient, and, and especially they're gonna probably try to rely on that running game. Uh, they've certainly tried to work to rebuild that offensive line there in Pittsburgh.
18:10
So I don't know if it would be just a total shocker. Like it would be shocker if he's one of the top five passing leaders in the league- Yeah... or has one of the top five QBRs. I think that would be the shocker.
18:23
Not necessarily if they win games, if he's just like, eh, he's kinda okay, solid. But, you know, the running game and the defense and the special teams is why they win. Okay. Uh, NFL betting guide.
18:34
The VSiN NFL betting guide is coming out tomorrow. Um, give us a sense, 'cause all of us did some prop bets in there or gave out our, uh, the bets that we've made this off season.
18:44
Give us a sense of, uh, maybe your favorite of the bunch that you have. Uh, in terms of a win total, Gil? Uh, it c- whichever way you wanna go. Win total or a prop bet- Well, okay... whatev- whichever way. Okay.
18:54
Well, well, one division that I did play was the AFC South, and Houston is the favorite. Uh, we know Tennessee's rebuilding. The Colts may be going with Daniel Jones. This is a transition.
19:07
Of course, uh, you know, new ownership with, uh, the late Jim Irsay's daughters taking over the reins.
19:11
But I think the Jacksonville Jaguars, at about a little over $3, are a team you wanna watch in this division because I like the coaching that they have now. They get Liam Cohen from Tampa Bay.
19:23
Remember Liam Cohen several years ago was on that Sean McVay staff for about a year with the Rams, was also in college. He was the offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay last year.
19:33
And w- one thing I got wrong was Tampa Bay last year because I thought, "Okay, Dave Canales has gone to Carolina, right?
19:39
So Baker Mayfield, who was off his career year, he's gonna go into n- not, not necessarily a downward spiral, but he's certainly gonna decline."
19:47
Well, in comes Liam Cohen, and Baker Mayfield has his career year yet again for the second year in a row. So he's now coming to Jacksonville with a guy that's at a crossroads in his career, and that's Trevor Lawrence.
19:57
'Cause we've seen really good things out of Trevor Lawrence, and then we've seen him be really mediocre. So they are bringing, uh, him in as the head coach.
20:05
Also, uh, uh, someone, uh, the name escapes me right now, but from the Vikings staff who was part of Sam Darnold's career year last year and his resurgence. So I think that offense is gonna, is gonna be much better.
20:18
You obviously add Travis Hunter to that mix, De'Brian Thomas, who was the best rookie receiver, even more so, uh, than Maserati Marve down in Arizona. Brian Thomas had the better numbers.
20:28
So I think this Jacksonville offense is gonna cook. Now defensively, they're gonna be a little shaky.
20:34
This is a team you're probably gonna be betting a lot of overs week to week if you're betting totals on the NFL, because they're gonna be in some shootouts.
20:41
But I think the Jacksonville Jaguars are somebody to watch here. Houston, the obvious favorite, and C.J. Stroud, look, he's gonna just keep getting better.
20:49
But I don't think that Houston should be priced at near even money, almost odds on to win this division. So I went with Jacksonville a little bit over three to one.
20:58
In the seemingly never-ending off-season debate of who the worst team is in the NFL heading into the season, who you got? Saints, Giants, or Browns? Oof. And that, that, that's a toughie. That's a pick your poison.
21:12
Uh, you know, the, the, the Saints to me, I have no idea who their quarterback i- is, is going to be.
21:18
I just, you know, the fact that Derek Carr retired very late in the spring, and not that Derek was, you know, at the peak of his career necessarily, but I, I, I'm, I'm still a little bit, you know, weary of the s- or leery of the Saints.
21:33
Uh, Kellen Moore, by the way, takes over as the head coach from Philadelphia. Philadelphia is a team I lean to their under wins just because that schedule they have is brutal, and they're at 11 and a half.
21:43
I think that I wrote that up for the betting guide. I think they're going under 11 because the entire offensive staff from Philadelphia, by the way, goes to New Orleans.
21:51
But not a lot of personnel to work with for the Saints right now. All right, Wes, um, we leave you with this. Walter Scott of The Whispers has passed away. Your favorite Whispers song of all time was?
22:01
Uh, I'm gonna say "It's a Love Thing," but they d- "Rock Steady" was a strong comeback in 1987. L.A. Reid and Babyface of course wrote and produced that. But, uh, man, Walter Scott, Yarbrough from Yarbrough and Peoples.
22:14
Yep. Uh, uh, the hits sadly, uh, keep on going away, Gil. Wes Reynolds, the greatest. Can y- Y- You can throw anything at him and he knows, he knows the answer to it. Gil, you're a, you're a Babyface fan, right?
22:24
Oh my God, yes. Are you kidding me? Yes, yes I am kidding. [laughs] He lives here in Las Vegas, Kelly. Yeah. And play- and plays a lot at the Pub. This he does. He- I almost got Gil tickets once.
22:35
"It's a Love Thing," great, great, uh, choice there. Thank you, Wes, appreciate it. Wes Reynolds, everybody, @wesreynolds1 on Twitter. We'll come back. Uh, so much to get to.
22:44
We'll update the tennis scores and what is left to play of my picks at Wimbledon. Coming up. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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and mention VSiN. Xcutta.com, the future of future wagering. It's Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin alongside. We, uh,
23:44
we got, we got on the board at Wimbledon, so we lost on Bautista Agut, um, those who followed, and, uh, won on Danilovic. So those split, I guess we lose five cents of juice there, uh, between those two.
23:56
So basically we're starting with the, uh, the remaining five. Fearnley is the one that has started, and that is in the third set. He's down two sets to n- to none.
24:06
Fearnley's a big dog in that one, so that's the third match that's going on. We have seven total.
24:10
The ones that have not started, uh, once again on this, in case you're, uh, interested in getting in on the, uh, the Wimbledon action this morning, if you're interested in tailing the plays anyway, four still have not started.
24:21
They are as follows: uh, Yanina Wickmayer, plus 131 against Renata Zarazua. Uh, Katarina Siniakova, plus 141 against Zheng Qinwen. The big dog, the really big dog, Talia Gibson, plus 536 against Naomi Osaka.
24:38
And oh, Jan-Lennard Struff has started as well on the men's side. So there's three left that have not started. Pardon me.
24:43
And Jan-Lennard Struff, um, in the first set here up 3-1 and is about to go up a second break against Misolic.
24:51
So good start to that one So, uh, a little choppy, good and bad here in the early going of Wimbledon What, uh, what time do they play matches till, like, Pacific time? Um, midday, like a- actually a little beyond midday.
25:05
Like this first week, I guess? Yeah. Like, like 2:00 PM-ish here, I guess. Okay. 'Cause I know the second week it feels like it falls off a cliff, right?
25:11
'Cause the- The first two days of Wimbledon, like I said, like, I have to start handicapping Saturday for the Sunday night beginning. Mm.
25:21
'Cause otherwise I'll get, you know, like, there's so many matches to get to, so that's why we had seven today. Who knows how many there will be available. And this is all, you know, depends on the cookie crumbles.
25:29
Maybe there won't be seven, maybe there'll be more than seven. I don't know what will be tomorrow. Um, but- So then you're usually doing, like, early evening, like, handicapping on the, for the next day?
25:37
Well, it usually becomes early evening as the tournament goes on and there's fewer matches, but when, to get ahead of all of these matches the first two days, it's more than a day in advance where I'm doing it.
25:47
So yesterday my picks were out early in the morning yesterday. Gotcha. Which I don't usually have the, them out that quickly. 'Cause like, 'cause then you gotta get around and do day two, which is just as many matches.
25:57
But obviously I'm gonna be a little b- more behind than I was over the weekend today, but we'll get them out there. And again, with the website, vsan.com/picksforsubscribers,
26:07
hit my name, hit tennis, hit the page where they're in real time, all seven of them are actually there. Sorry, it's not, it wasn't necessarily all in one place. Uh, we get tweets @BeatingTheBook.
26:18
Always appreciate the feedback from everybody. This is from, uh, Justin D.: "I reached out to DraftKings." He said, "They will have July most wins up today." Thank you, Justin D. How about that? Oh, nice.
26:29
You reached out to DraftKings. You pick up the phone, you're like, "Hello, DraftKings. Do you have, uh, more- [laughs] Yeah... most wins for us?" I'm surprised they, uh, got back to you that quick.
26:35
RDW about, uh, Joey Chestnut. He said, "2023 Nathans had a rain/lightning delay. Joey and others ate less 'cause they said it threw off their routine." That makes sense.
26:46
Michael Burns letting us know that both, uh, at Wimbledon, that both Carlitos, and he's right about this, and Madison Keys, that both of them are in a tussle.
26:57
Maddie Keys just knotted up her match against Elena Gabriela Rouse one set a piece, so she's in a tussle, but at least she evened it out. Carlitos right now, are you ready for this?
27:09
Split the first two sets with Fabio Fognini, and it's about to be 5-5 in set number three. Oh, man. Fabio Fognini. This is not quite Corey Pavin territory, but Fabio Fognini's 38 years old, Kelly.
27:23
He was the number nine player in the world in 2019, pre-pandemic. I was gonna say, I feel like I remember him from about 10 years ago. He's n- I guess a little, little later than that...
27:33
he's never gotten past a fourth round in any slam except for he got to the quarters in the French once. At Wimbledon he's never gotten past the third round, and here he is giving Carlitos all he can handle.
27:42
We, we've got it up top there, but y- yeah, just be careful- Ooh... staring into the sun. A little glary up there. Yeah. You're not gonna be able to see the score, that's for sure.
27:48
Maybe I'll just watch this while you do the rest of the show. [laughs] Um, yeah, but he is in a tussle, so thank you for, uh, alerting us to that as well. We're focused in on, on the picks that I had.
27:57
Uh, Joe C., who we mentioned, brought in our gifts. He goes, "Wow, first time at Circus Sports. Absolutely amazing. Need to come here more." Um, let's see. This is from, uh, Jesse Welch.
28:07
"If I'm not mistaken, I think DraftKings waited until June 1st to put up the June market, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them do that with July." Well, we got word that it will be up today.
28:15
Uh, Nunya, Nunya, bud delivery guy, says, "When Beasley was in Minnesota," talking to Malik Beasley here, "when he was in Minnesota, he was a regular at Canterbury Park.
28:23
Blackjack, private table, max betting a couple hands. Canterbury's max bet $300 per hand, so he definitely likes to gamble." Well, you know, he's allowed to do that. Just can't bet on NBA games.
28:33
Um, and then, uh, Chris Heath about Wes's pick on The Whispers, "'It's a Love Thing' is a slapper." I agree. "I saw The Whispers at our school auction in the Oakland Rotunda Building.
28:42
Also the first time I ever rented a tuxedo." How about that? All right, and on and on with the tweets. Always appreciate that. I wanted to ask you, Kelly Bidlin, before we go today, what's this LeBron stuff?
28:51
So LeBron is open to a trade? What am, what am I hearing about this? Uh, it's interesting. I wanna say in the long run it's nothing. In the long run it's nothing. This is just a buncha, a buncha smoke.
29:04
I don't even really get what the point is, Rich, Rich Paul.
29:06
Hey, look, there's a, there's series of things that happened that are just a bit curious 'cause LeBron has gotten into a very, uh, automatic how he's gonna handle every off season and every contract, and basically he has a, what, two, two or three-year deal.
29:21
I think it's two-year deals he usually has with a player option for the second year.
29:25
Usually what he always does is gets to the end of the, e- end of the year, Gil, and instead of opting into his player option, they just sign a new contract.
29:34
This is what's been going on with LeBron for I, I think the last eight times or something like that he's had the player option up. He's just thrown it out and b- and signed a new contract to begin with.
29:44
So LeBron James opted in, used his player option, uh, yesterday, and opted into his contract. So okay, whatever, no big deal. One year left with the Lakers. Who knows what happens after that.
29:56
Um, but then they, like Rich Paul came out with a statement and, you know, LeBron wants to compete for a championship. He knows the Lakers are building for a future.
30:04
He understands that, but he values a realistic chance of winning it all. We are very appreciative for, uh, appreciative for the partnership. Uh, yada, yada, yada. These are some of the quotes from the statement.
30:13
You can read his whole statement.
30:14
So a lot of people after that were like, "Well, that sounds like he kinda wants m- possibly wants to be somewhere else, but why would you opt into your deal when you coulda just opted out, and you coulda been a free agent- Right...
30:24
and gone and played anywhere?" Right. Um, I guess my,
30:29
my take on that would be, okay, still with his son with the franchise, maybe he would act- if he wanted to go somewhere else, maybe he'd actually opt in and wanna do a trade so the Lakers get something back, and he doesn't leave that franchise really with nothing.
30:41
In the end, I think it's a bunch of nothingness, Gil. But w- the other way I read this is he opts in because he doesn't really know how much longer he's really gonna be playing for, uh, uh, in basketball period.
30:52
A- and B, this message is just a message to the Lakers organization of like, "Hey- I was surprised by the Luka trade, right? Like it was, that, that, they didn't really involve LeBron in that.
31:04
Ownership just changed, so what is my new status in this Lakers world that I live in, right?
31:11
So maybe let me sh- let me fire off [laughs] kind of a statement through Rich Paul of like, "Hey, let's keep in mind I'm still here- Yeah... and we need to be building towards a championship while I'm still here."
31:20
That's what it sounds like. That's what I'm reading into it. Yeah. But it's a bunch of curious little moves that you just don't really see.
31:27
Like, the other part of this was, I was listening to Brian Windhorst talk about this. Like, the Lakers didn't announce it.
31:32
And like, mo- most teams, whe- whether you're a nobody or a star, just th- th- they'll announce w- through their Twitter account or whatever if a player, you know, re-signs, opts in, opts out, whatever.
31:44
That stuff's usually announced. Lakers didn't announce any of that. But- Just k- it's kind of a bunch of weird things... by the way, people like to bash on ESPN. Uh, it's become fashionable, sometimes justifiable.
31:53
I'm not saying it's not always not. Um, but Brian Windhorst, every time he, every time he says something I'm, I'm all ears. Uh, Windhorst, Bontemps- He's fantastic... McManamon are awesome. Like th- the- Yeah...
32:02
yeah, the, the Hoop Collective guys are extremely knowledgeable. Um- The other thing I wanna, oh, Deandre Ayton also going to the Lakers. I, so I think, I think that, that's one.
32:10
Deandre Ayton getting bought out of his deal in Portland, that makes more sense with what we saw on draft night with Portl- uh, with Portland adding more bigs, uh, to, to, uh, them already having a ton of centers.
32:20
Deandre Ayton, man, I think he, yes, I, I think he will be a Laker. It kind of makes too much sense.
32:25
The, the, the one thing that it might be boring, but if you are building for the future in LA, like you know exactly what to do.
32:32
This is again why w- why it was so weird the Mavericks trading Luka Doncic to begin with because the blueprint they finally figured out of, of roster construction with Luka, and it's, hey, you need a lob threat at center, and that was Derek Lively [laughs] when they brought in, and a guy that can ideally play some defense too.
32:50
But the pick and roll and the lob threat is what Luka loves, and otherwise he needs everybody spread out, three and D guys. So Deandre Ayton will probably end up a Laker.
32:59
[laughs] He's not gonna bring the defense, but he at least can be a center for Luka to play with. 2018 Tankathon prize, Deandre Ayton.
33:04
And the other thing, Giannis' odds to stay with the Bucks has crashed a little bit to minus 200. Yeah. Yeah, and I don't, I don't know that there's a reason here. Thing or not a thing?
33:14
I'm, I'm gonna, I'm gonna go with not a thing. That's what I'm guessing. But free agency underway. We'll see how this ends up shaping the market. I could... Look, we did this a couple weeks ago.
33:24
We can talk a little bit about on the other side. There's a bunch of these teams I think have no chance. I think there are a couple teams that are interesting though. Wyatt Tomchek and Nick Whalen. Yeah.
33:32
Little, little scared by that move perhaps. Uh, we'll come back. We'll, uh, revisit this, and we'll recap all the bets on the other side. It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:41
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:56
Back on our Numbers Game, live from Circa Resort Casino downtown Las Vegas, where apparently they're showing the, uh, Love Island season finale live at the pool at Stadium Swim July the 14th.
34:06
By the way, are we getting tickets for the Cooper Flagg debut at Summer League? Ooh. I didn't even think. Well, I had thought about Summer League, but I did not think about the Cooper Flagg factor.
34:16
I think, I think he's the first game. Okay. I think. All right. We've gotta figure that one out. All right. Summer League starts July 10th here, by the way. I gotta figure out if I can, uh,
34:24
get a, uh, get a credential first. That would be nicer, 'cause I'll hang out there all day. You know, can I just pull back the curtain? Yeah. I don't even bother asking anymore. I know.
34:34
Where last year it didn't work out at all, so. Yeah. No, don't bother anymore. I, I'm thinking this year I'll try to be JVT's intern. [laughs] Think, I think that's the, the route I'm gonna try to pull this year. Yeah.
34:43
Yeah. Yeah, yeah. Uh, let's- 'Cause he's always got a way. He's always got a way. JVT's gotten in. Uh, let's recap all the bets. Again, tennis, uh, seven plays in tennis.
34:51
I know we're, we're only listing the six because Bautista Agut started before the show started. That lost. The Danilovic m- match won, and now we are up, up in the Struff match, and we are down in the Fearnley match.
35:05
So there's a three left. Um, Wikmayer, Gibson, and Si- Siniakova. Wikmayer actually just started, so Wikmayer no longer, uh, pre-flop at plus 131.
35:15
The two dogs that have not, the two matches are both dogs that have not started. Siniakova against Zheng Qinwen, plus 141, and then Talia Gibson, plus 536. That's right, plus 536 against Naomi Osaka.
35:33
I love you, Naomi, but just not today. I'm just gonna parlay 'em all. [laughs] That should work.
35:39
Um- I'm just gonna s- I'm gonna start saying things out, uh, sta- saying things, Gil, that I know five people just said out loud in their car right now.
35:45
My favorite Kelly Bidlin-ism is when you say something completely not designed to trigger a bet, and then people come back three days later and like- [laughs] Good call, Kelly... "You totally called it, Kelly."
35:56
Yeah, that's pretty good. [laughs] It is. Uh, what was it? Uh, J.J. Spaun is legit. Thurston Lawrence is not. [laughs] Five days later, "Thanks, Kelly, for the winner." Yeah, we gotta be careful of that stuff.
36:06
[laughs] Uh, also have Iga to win Wimbledon at 9 to 1. Remember my proclamation, uh, I said this way back in the day that she will win double-digit majors and that she will be the GOAT. Iga 9 to 1 to win Wimbledon.
36:18
Maddie Keys up a break in the third set now against Elena Gabriela Rousset, 18 to 1 to win Wimbledon, have her as well. And then, uh, most wins in July. We started that today. Uh, now it's up at both
36:32
Caesars, William Hill, and Circa. DraftKings yet to post, but they said they will. Uh, thank you again to those that, uh, made the inquiries. Mariners 20 to 1 most wins in July. Went through my reasoning.
36:43
We'll probably post that clip here a little later. Mariners 20 to 1 at both shops that are up right now. Those are mine. Kelly Bidlin, ladies and gentlemen. Yeah, a couple comments real quick. Okay.
36:51
F- uh, uh, Hawks 55 to win the Eastern Conference. I'll, I'll get rid of that one, sorry. Uh, this is, I, that, I, I bet that as soon as, uh, Porzingis, uh, was on the move to Atlanta. Uh, it's a bit shorter, number two.
37:02
We, we'll get back to those Giannis odds, but, uh, maybe Atlanta in play there too. We don't know, Gilly. We don't know. Uh, Gills most regular season wins plus 450.
37:10
You're gonna hear me say that a lot this summer as we- You said Bills or Gills? Bill's right. Gills. Oh, okay. Was wondering. Bills. Yeah, yeah. Okay. Um, I was checking out a couple odds. Yep A couple odds?
37:18
Couple odds, wow. [laughs] Wow. Good thing it's the last segment. Yeah. Uh, Talaya Gibson, only four to one over at DraftKings now, so. Oh. Ooh. Then I do- That's a little, that's a little- Then I do that.
37:29
And then, uh- Not that it takes a lot to move it at those numbers, but yeah... S- Sini- Siniakova? Or some say Siniakova. Siniakova, yeah. How do you say her opponent's name, though? I always mess that one up.
37:39
How do I say what? Her opponent's name. Zhang Shuai. Yeah, I always mess that one up. Yeah. She's only minus 200 against her? Man. Yeah, 'cause Siniakova's got good grass numbers- Okay...
37:46
and this is not Zhang's favorite surface. Okay. Yeah. Zhang Shuai, that is. Uh, okay. By the way, all that brought you by G-Bank, the official bank of VSiN, introducing the $500 trifecta from G-Bank, First Bet, and VSiN.
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38:37
Um, you wanted to say something else about Giannis and the teams that are, are no-go on this? Well, the, uh, you pointed out the most interesting thing, is that we've seen... What did, when did we talk about this?
38:46
A week and a half ago? And really there's been nothing that's changed, uh, with Giannis as far as thinking he's going to go.
38:53
If anything, you would think he's more likely back to Milwaukee, and we saw that move from minus 400 all the way down to minus 200. So, uh, that a little curious to me, but then
39:03
if, if you were gonna bet this and you were looking at another team besides the Bucks to go after, um, like there's a lot I think you can cross off the list, uh, when you, when you pull those up.
39:14
And the Hawks are the next one, which are interesting to me. Don't, don't get me wrong. I think they, they, uh, should be the second shot on there, six to one out there on Atlanta.
39:23
They have pieces to make that work, and you start thinking about a Trae Young, Giannis, Kristaps Porzingis trio, man, that's, that's pretty interesting. But I think there are teams you could cross off. Raptors
39:36
will, should be in play for this. We've had the Raptors conversation a bunch, though. It's just i- i- if you're Giannis, do you really wanna...
39:44
I- is Toronto that much better of a situation than Milwaukee for, for you to bail on Milwaukee? And that one I just don't really believe in. At eight to one I sure wouldn't be, uh, sure wouldn't be betting it.
39:55
But, like, okay, Knicks, Rockets are next on that list. Uh, Knicks aren't making this move. As much as, as much as everybody wants the Knicks, uh, to make that move, I don't think it's happening.
40:05
Uh, it would be a complete, a, a complete roster turnover, basically, of what they'd have to do there in New York. Um, the Rockets. The Rockets are next on this. The Rockets just got their guy. It's Kevin Durant.
40:15
Like, th- that's who they got already. They- they're, they're not gonna be going after Giannis. Um, Spurs I think are interesting still.
40:22
The Nets, I, I don't really know that the Nets are in play anymore after what we saw on draft night, where it's just- They drafted their starting five already...
40:29
they drafted their start- Like, like, Gil, they bas- basically telegraphed to us that night that they are tanking again next season.
40:35
Like, there was no o- If they were serious [laughs] about doing something this year, they would've packaged some of those together and actually gone after a player, or gone, uh, gone after a Giannis, right?
40:44
Saraph, Wolf, catch the fever. [laughs] That's right.
40:47
My point is, if you're gonna go bet this, I think there's a lot of teams that you could kinda cross off that shouldn't even be, uh, that shouldn't be up there on the board. Yeah, makes sense. Makes sense.
40:58
And I, and I do, uh, the thing about, we should also say again to new bettors, when a prop like that, quote-unquote, crashes, right? It takes very little- Yes... to move that kind of market.
41:09
So it may mean absolutely nothing, and Giannis may very well, uh, be staying put on that. Um, do you have any, by the way, I didn't mention this, the Open Championship is the only remaining golf major.
41:21
You're waiting for week of? Do you have someone in mind that is off the radar? No, I haven't bet anything yet. Um, i- if, I probably won't have anything in advance.
41:31
Uh, look, I think, there, I think there's gonna be a lot of Rory love, so I'll let that- [laughs]... aff- affect the odds [laughs] if he- I bring, I bring it up 'cause we're only two and a half weeks away. Yeah.
41:41
No, yeah. Yeah. I'll let that, uh, I'm gonna see where tho- that number moves. He's plu- plus 650 right now over at DraftKings.
41:48
I, i- if you're gonna put sh- if, if you're gonna go shorter on Rory, uh, just because we're at Royal Po- uh, Portrush, and I can get a longer number, uh, you know, on some of these other guys, then I'll be interested in that.
42:00
It's, it's, like, it's gonna be the same line about the Open for me as I've used for every major, though.
42:05
I, I really think we're, we're at a short number of guys that could win the thing or should be able to win the thing.
42:11
It is, the, the top of the board right now in golf is just, uh, so talented and, and in my opinion, chews up so much of the w- w- win equity. So look, Rahm's on my radar once again.
42:20
I think I'd be interested to get back on him, uh, for the Open. 14 to one ro- though right a- right now at DraftKings, that's not all that interesting to me, so I'll probably wait in a couple weeks.
42:29
I haven't made any bets yet. Um, I haven't given away all of my props on the, uh, that are in the betting guide tomorrow. I hesitate, should I give away my last one, or should I, uh, not? We've done everything.
42:39
No, we're gonna, we're gonna do more in the next couple days. We'll do more in a couple days. Yeah, yeah. Okay, I won't do that. Yeah.
42:42
Did you, uh, wanna give one more of yours away, or you want, you wanna save that as well? Yeah, well, uh, we'll keep saving them. We'll keep saving them. Keep saving them. Okay.
42:49
Um, I didn't have, uh, what I did notice, and by the way, there's a grid of all the VSiN hosts. Um, are you on the grid as well? Mm-hmm. You on that? Okay.
42:57
Um, I noticed, uh, Commanders not in favor by most when in terms of in picking divisions and wild cards. Didn't notice a lot of Commanders love. I think there's, I think somewhat justifiably, right?
43:10
But I, I noticed that there was a, uh, definitely a push back to the fact that they won so many games by one possession last year, and, and so many of th- By the way, there's a lot of teams that won games by, uh, eight plus games by more than one possession, right?
43:24
There's a bunch of teams that did that. Um, among them, the Eagles, the aforementioned Commanders, the Chiefs, the Colts, the Rams, the Vikings, I believe, all won eight plus games by one possession.
43:39
But for some reason, it's the Commanders having done it so many times in dramatic fashion that seems to have stuck with people, at least just an ani- just a, a glance at that grid.
43:50
The, uh, I have the Commanders in the playoffs. I couldn't remember if I had them making it or not. They are, they are in the playoffs. They're a wild card team for me. No. People watch the Detroit game in the playoffs?
43:59
They, do they watch that? They forget about that game? Hey, man, you got them as a wild card, too. I'm looking at yours. Yeah, but I'm saying a lot of people didn't have them at all. Eh, yeah. Interesting.
44:09
49ers, Commanders, Lions, my wild card teams. Who do I got wild card? Yours, Commanders, Packers, Rams. Yeah. Yep. Interesting. Anyway, every VSiN host with all of their plays in the guide as well.
44:23
Uh, divisions, wild cards, who advances to the Super Bowl, who wins the Super Bowl? Guide out tomorrow. Money Moves next with Stormy and JBT. Enjoy from VSiN, the sports betting network.
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