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Jun 3, 2025
A Numbers Game | June 3, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | June 3, 2025 | Hour 1
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:08
[upbeat music] Tuesday edition of a Numbers Game here on VSiN, the eSports betting network. Matt Brown in for Gil Alexander again here on a Tuesday. Sorry, everybody. Sorry. Sorry. You get the two of us.
0:22
I'm here for two more days as well, so that's, you know, sorry if you didn't like what you saw yesterday. Kelly Bidlin, of course, on the desk with me as always.
0:30
We'll have Mark Borcherd join us a little bit later, talk some baseball. Jake Hahn gonna come. I haven't seen Jake Hahn in a while. I'm glad to have Jake Hahn here on our show. Big week for Jake. Yeah.
0:39
Stanley Cup Final, we got the RBC- He gets to shine. Oh, he gets to shine. Yeah. He e- he even asked me, he was like, "Oh, we could talk a little golf too if you want."
0:47
I was like, "Jake, why do you think I'm hitting you up?" Yeah, buddy. Canadian Open, all you. You know what? He's probably played the course or something- He probably has... you know?
0:53
So we're gonna get some inside info from Jake Hahn. Drew Dincic gonna join us as well. We'll talk a little tennis, we'll talk a little NBA. Who knows what else we're gonna talk with Drew Dincic.
1:03
He can talk about just, about anything, and we'll hit on some NFL awards markets that are going on out there as well.
1:11
I know it's not Gil on the desk, but if you guys wanna tweet us, uh, it is @MattBrownM2, it is @KellyBidlin, that is the EY version of Kelly. So let us know what's on your mind for sure.
1:20
As we found out yesterday, there were some people out there defending, defending the Android. That's what we got. I got some even after we went off air. Oh, really? Oh, yeah. Nah, there's always the die-hards.
1:32
You're gonna get that. Yeah, you're gonna get that from anybody. I mean, it's the, it's the full-on, like, "I'm not giving in to your propaganda- Yeah, they all try... trying to get people to switch to Apple."
1:41
They know exactly what they're doing. They love being that guy. And for, for every, every group of friends, family, people, whatever, there's always one a- and, and they like it. They, they, they like being that guy.
1:51
We'll get into what we saw last night, but first, guys, something that does affect each and every one of us even though it's not a bet that we're going to be making today, it is a bet that you're gonna be making in the future.
2:01
And lawmakers in the middle of the night go and pass a bill, and it's gonna be heading to Governor JB Pritzker's desk, which he is expected to actually sign this bill in which it is going to add a 25 cent tax to every single sports bet made in the state of Illinois up to $20 million in wagers.
2:20
And then when you go beyond that threshold of $20 million, it is going to be a 50 cent tax on every wager after that. And what does that mean to you, and me, and to everybody out there?
2:32
Well, if you're a low roller, which by the way, that is 99.9% of the bettors out there. I know we like to talk about all of the four figure, five figure, six figure bets that are out there.
2:43
The majority of bettors are 10, 20, $30 bettors out there. And what that means to you is fewer promotions, fewer boosts.
2:52
Maybe those odds that we look at the same game parlays that we know don't pay out exactly at true odds are gonna get a little bit worse in all of that. All of this is going to get passed along to us, the consumer.
3:04
For you high rollers out there, what does that mean? Well, probably the odds are going to get worse. The hold is going to get bigger.
3:09
All of the different things that we don't like as sports bettors, it's going to come down, and trickle down to all of us.
3:18
And the thing is in all of this, is the reason that we have been advocating for a long time, and by the way, I host a business podcast on the business of sports betting in, in the casino industry in general, and I have for several years.
3:30
And we've been championing taking this out of the offshore, taking this out of the bookies' hands, getting this out of the black market, and getting it into a regulated and legalized form of betting.
3:41
And the thing is, Kelly, is what we're doing now is just pushing people back offshore with all of these things that don't make any sense whatsoever. They didn't do the math.
3:51
Sports betting is a very slim margin business as it is. These guys, not only are they operating on small margins, you've gotta remember you're paying licensing fees to g- Hmm... even get a license in these states.
4:03
You are then paying taxes on all of the stuff that goes along with all of that.
4:08
There are a ton of expenses that these businesses have to endure that you do not have to for the offshores and of course for the bookies who are doing this and all of that. And so
4:18
keep writing letters, keep sending emails, keep calling, leave voicemails, send stuff on social media. It does matter.
4:25
And if you live outside of Illinois, don't think that this doesn't affect you either, because we have seen this in states, copycat stuff go on. We see states pass a bill, the tax rate is X.
4:38
They revisit that a year later. They raise the taxes. Well, guess what state X, Y, and Z does? They revisit it, and they start talking about raising the taxes as well.
4:46
And so if you don't think that we're gonna be listening to other states talk about putting a tax on every single wager that you and I make moving forward in the state that you live in, you're crazy, because that is what happens in all of this.
4:58
And so I know it feels like it's a futile effort, that you don't go in a- and that no one listens to you, and they don't respond to you, and you know what? It doesn't matter.
5:06
Keep calling, keep writing, send stuff on social media, do whatever you can because we cannot cripple this industry while it is still trying to get going here, Kelly. Yeah.
5:15
And that's the thing, like, I know it feels like we've been doing this for a long time. We're still in the infancy- Mm-hmm...
5:20
of this industry right now, and if we start putting all of these ridiculous tax burdens on these casinos and sportsbooks, they're not going to be able to function, and we're going to see less competition.
5:29
We're going to see businesses go out of bus- and you're not going to get the people where you have a t- you guys out there that have 12 different books,
5:37
if this goes nationwide, if this happens, we're, you're gonna be betting on three books again. Like it's, it, there's gonna be consolidation. People are gonna figure that it's not worth their time.
5:44
And for us as a consumer, this is only bad for us.
5:48
Yeah, a- and, and from the, you know, sportsbook's perspective there, there's only so much they can do until the price c- starts getting passed down to the customer, right? Yeah.
5:55
You're gonna start paying it, uh, you know, in every, every game that you bet, then every future, every same game parlay, uh, that you end up betting.
6:03
And it, it, it's, I, I think you, you hit on well with the we're still in the infancy.
6:07
Everybody's still trying to figure out how to handle this state to state, and the different problems that have arisen, uh, throughout the early stages I think were surprising to some, not as surprising to others.
6:17
But- This has been maybe the most concerning one to me, Matt, is if we start, yeah, you see one state having to hike up prices, and then everybody, like you said, a bunch of other states are gonna say, "Well, if I can make that much more money, what, what, with copying the way these, these guys are doing it, why aren't we doing that?"
6:34
If you do that, and you, it, it starts elevating the price for the customer to get involved in legalized sports betting, it's just gonna continue to force people w- to look other places to bet, and then we're right back to square one, right?
6:46
You're right back to people betting offshore, betting with bo- bookies. This is the whole purpose of why we legalized sports betting in the United States in the first place.
6:53
So it's, uh, look, it has not been, none of it's been perfect- No...
6:57
out of the gates, but the, these are, these- These laws that get put in that make no rhyme or reason, they didn't think through, that they don't understand how bad it is for their constituents- Yeah...
7:06
how bad it is for their state, how bad it is for the consumer, this is what drives me crazy. But the thing is, Kelly, we cannot take it for granted. It's going to happen. Like, it will be brought up, I promise you.
7:15
Like, we will be talking about this in a few months of it get- it getting brought up in another state, and getting brought up in another state, and someone's gonna write a bill, and someone's gonna back that bill.
7:23
It's going to happen, and so we have to be vocal. I know it seems like they don't listen to us. Mm-hmm. Trust me, I have a very strong take- Mm-hmm... on daylight savings time.
7:31
[laughs] I wrote a letter, I wrote a letter to every single one of our state senators- Yeah, you did... about this. I've not gotten one response.
7:37
But I mean, the point is, is I at least wrote the letter, I at least made the voice known. Someone read something somewhere along the way.
7:42
It might've been an intern, it might've been whatever, but at least the voice was... So social media, calls, voicemails, emails, letters, physical letters, all the stuff you can do.
7:52
But make sure that this doesn't happen across the rest of the states, and hopefully some pressure on Pritzker and he doesn't end up signing this thing if you guys continue in Illinois to make your voices heard out there.
8:01
Yep, I like it. I like it. Well said. Well said. All right, guys, so getting into the actual sports that we did see. Yeah. That does affect, this is spor- this is a huge in- No, it's huge, yeah...
8:09
huge, huge in the sports betting industry in general. We've- Everything's minus 115 both sides these days. Yeah. Like, that stuff's just gonna continue- Yeah...
8:16
uh, if, if, if these types of things continue state to state. So we did see, uh, some, some of the national seeds advance last night. A scare for LSU, who went in- Whoo... as minus, as high as minus 2500 you found? Yeah.
8:29
[laughs] You found minus 2500 in that? Yeah, yeah. They were trailing early, well into the middle of that game, actually.
8:34
Do end up winning 10 to 6 there in Baton Rouge, so they will advance and move on to a super regional.
8:41
We did lose, by the way, good call on our, uh, Benny Wilson that was on yesterday, as not only did Murray State cover, they eliminated Ole Miss. They won outright in that game, Kelly Bidlin. So Ole Miss headed packing.
8:55
Southern Miss, another national seed, not advancing as well.
8:58
If you look on your screen, if you are a VSiN Pro subscriber or watching this on YouTube TV, you can see we do have North Carolina, and Auburn, and Arkansas, and LSU, and Oregon State all national seeds that do advance.
9:09
Uh, uh, UCLA and Tennessee as well, Florida State sitting there at the number nine. But UW Louisville, Miami came in both unseeded. Arizona a- a- advances.
9:18
You see West Virginia's gonna take on LSU down there in Baton Rouge, Duke, and Murray State, UTSA, and UCLA. So there are some familiar names on there, Kelly.
9:27
But hey, look, we got a couple of little Cinderella stories perhaps.
9:30
Yeah, I don't know why my nose had to draw Oregon State, who's, uh, uh, by, by my rough, uh, history and collection, uh, Matt, uh, Oregon State's been in the College World Series, uh, roughly 19 out of the past 20 years.
9:41
So, uh- [laughs]... yeah, I, I, I don't, we, yeah, Florida State had to draw Oregon State. That's going to be o- one of the tougher match-ups in the super regionals.
9:47
But yeah, there's some, uh, there's some fun, uh, fun teams here that could ma- make it to Omaha, and I know we got a bunch of shows going out there next week.
9:54
Uh, it shou- should be, it could be some fun, fun, uh, match-ups down there in Omaha. Yeah, baseball news from yesterday, and if we're gonna talk injury news and stuff that could affect things moving forward.
10:05
So Devin Williams had lost the closer role. Luke Weaver had taken over the closer role there for the Yankees. He had been lights out. I'm talking absolutely fantastic, unhittable for the Yankees.
10:16
Well, they're going to have to find and see if Devin Williams can be unhittable yet again like he was for several seasons before he got into the Bronx, because Luke Weaver gonna miss four to six weeks with a hamstring injury, likely to put Devin Williams back in that high leverage role there, Kelly.
10:31
Again, one that he lost early on in the season because he was absolutely getting shelled. Mm-hmm. Yeah, interested to see. I, I know that was a popular selection too, uh, with the Yankees for most wins in June.
10:43
Yeah, that was one that I was kinda- Mm-hmm... circling in on. Didn't, I'm glad I didn't end up betting it. But yeah, uh, this is the, this is the type of stuff that impacts that right away, right?
10:51
You get a little bit longer. You make these month-long bets.
10:54
They're fun for short term, but the Yankees get to look at this a little bit of, "Oh, well, we have a little bit of time long term to figure out this situation."
11:01
[laughs] But if you've got bets on 'em for a month, not ideal. Yeah, Mike Trout, welcome back from the IL. He's been absolutely destroying the ball since he got back from the IL.
11:08
It's never been whether Mike Trout can hit or not. It's always just been whether he can stay on the field. Yep. He does hit his 10th home run last night, and with that, I might add, moves halfway.
11:18
I, you know, I got 20 and a half home runs on, on Trout preseason? Oh, I bet it too, but I bet it at, like, 23 and a half- Yeah... I think is where it, where it was.
11:25
It's, it's a lock as long as he can just stay on the field. As long as he can stay on the field. Yeah, yeah. Yep. It's a absolute lock. It almost felt like it was free money for us.
11:33
We'll talk some NBA when we come back, see what we think about some of these other markets out there.
11:38
And I got a few baseball bets as well, see if we can talk you into maybe wanting to tail and get those into the account. One for one yesterday. There you go.
11:46
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:03
Numbers Game here on Tuesday. Matt Brown in for Gil Alexander as we roll through some of the sports news. Of course, Sovereignty, Kelly, is gonna be going. We know that, um, and Journalism gonna be going as well.
12:17
So we're seeing a two to one morning line on Sovereignty, a eight to five morning line on Journalism. So a fun...
12:24
Uh, even though we don't have a Triple Crown race, uh, a Triple Crown threat here, we do have two horses that have won the first two races going at it, so that-... adds a little bit, right? Should, should be f- Intrigue?
12:35
Yeah, should be fun.
12:35
I'm, uh, I'm actually looking forward to, uh, to hearing what Drew has to say about it later, 'cause I think he, with how short those prices were with those top two, is actually looking at someone down the board.
12:46
So let's talk to him about that one. Yeah. Yeah. I put in a future bet that I was, I'll just say, you know, was, was not mine. [laughs] Um, one, one, one Mike Somich did say, like, "Hey, listen, there's a chance that..."
13:00
And I forget which horse he said, "Well, what isn't gonna run, this thing might only be, like, six horses." Yeah. If that's the case, Caesars is putting up fixed odds futures prices. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
13:10
Yeah, yeah. And he was like, "So if you, if you bet this now and this, this field is only six horses, it's gonna be far worse of a number. I gotta figure out which horse I bet." Was it, was it Ba- Baeza? Yes. Yes. Yes.
13:20
Yes. Okay. I, yeah, Mike was telling us that la- that last week as well. So- I think that was a common- Are you looking at the lines right now? I'm looking at... But yeah, and it's four- Where is, where-...
13:27
and it's four to one right now, so he's right. Okay. So I, yeah, I have four, five- He's getting six to one? I have 550 I think. Okay.
13:33
Yeah, well, he brought it up with us last week, and I think Drew brought up something similar on one of his own po- uh, own pods. Same thing, getting in front of, uh, the move on Baeza.
13:42
Yeah, so I have, I have 550 I think it is with, with all of that. Of course, uh, you know, we talk a ton of golf. Yesterday an interesting day in golf as there's a bunch of people that were not qualified for the US Open.
13:53
Big name pros that went out there and tried to get it done. Some did. Cam Young, Emiliano Grillo, Marc Leishman, Bud Cauley, they all go and win qualifiers across the country.
14:03
Two that did not were Rickie Fowler and Max Homa. Then you get this weird story that Max Homa carried his bag for 36 holes- Yeah, it was awkward... because him and his caddy had a break-up.
14:13
And I'm like, hold on, you're a multimillionaire. You could just Happy Gilmore that and go to someone in the crowd and be like, "Hey, man, you want to make 200 bucks?"
14:21
[laughs] Like, you get, like 200 bucks, they come and they at least car- They're not gonna give you advice, but at least you don't have to lug your clubs. You know what I'm saying? Yeah.
14:28
Like, just, just give somebody a couple binges and then, like, you know, focus on trying to qualify for the US Open. Look, man, we, we all like Max Homa.
14:34
You and I have made some money betting on him, uh, when he f- Quirky guy. I, you know, so whatever. Yeah, yeah, yeah. You know? Yeah. But, you know, we made some money betting on him on his rise up, man.
14:42
There's, uh, there's a lot going on in that head right now, that's for sure.
14:44
I mean, I, I, I saw a couple of the quotes even from him where it was like it made it, made it sound like he was, I don't wanna say punishing himself, but, like, wanted him to be by himself and left alone while he was concentrating through that.
14:56
So he, he's battling some things right now, man. And it, it stinks 'cause he's one of the better personalities I think that we have on the PGA Tour. PGA Tour could, always needs star players to play well.
15:05
Uh, he's just not there right now. Sabalenko and Iga Swiatek both advance to the semis in straight sets, so they both move on here this morning. Of course, we have Paul and Alcaraz still yet to come.
15:18
We'll talk to Drew about that one as well. I don't think that one gets... I think that one we still have a few hours until that one, uh, goes. So. Yeah.
15:23
Yeah, that is, uh, I'm seeing, you know, scheduled time 11:15 AM Pacific time, so 2:15 Eastern, and then Musetti and Tiafoe in action right now. Musetti up a set. He's took the first set 6-2, just started the second.
15:36
Oh, that is good for me. I have an under 38 and a half games in that one. Oh, okay. Okay. So that's good start. The 6-2 is a good start for me on the under 38 and a half games.
15:46
Uh, all right, Kelly, let's talk some, some NBA here, and let's see if there's anything that you have thought about overnight that maybe leads you to want to bet any of these other markets.
15:56
Guys, of course, we know massive, massive favorite out there in the Oklahoma City Thunder. Rightfully so, in my opinion, in my humble opinion here. Uh, still sitting at minus 700 over at DraftKings.
16:08
Pacers still at plus 500 over at DraftKings as well. But there are other markets we could look at. Yeah, totally. Um, I mean, I'll just circle back. I still think if [laughs]...
16:16
I mean, if you have the bankroll, I still think the series pr- I think it's g- I, it's a little cheap. Anything under se- uh, minus 700, I think you're getting a little, uh, a little bit of a discount on the Thunder.
16:24
Keep in mind they were around the same price, uh, when they played the Denver Nuggets. So, uh, really d- depends on how you compare Pacers to the Nuggets, uh, with that series price. I did go in...
16:35
I, I laid nine in game one. I, I, I'm wondering where this is gonna bounce around between the next couple days, but nine was good enough for me.
16:42
I, I, it's not gonna be any huge betting for me throughout this series 'cause they do have some futures tickets on the Thunder I'm hoping to get home. Uh, but did lay nine game one. We talked about it yesterday.
16:51
I, I still think, and I was looking at the board out here at Circa before the show- Mm... uh, Matt. I, I think if you're looking at...
16:57
Other ways I'd recommend betting this if you're looking for the series, we talked about the game one and the series, uh, be- betting that double result yesterday.
17:05
I think under th- under, uh, minus 300, I think that's a good bet to get involved. And then shop around. I'm thinking, guess, I think Circa has a little bit better price on this than most books out there.
17:14
But the minus one and a half games, you're looking about the same price on that too. I'd be a little bit more leery of laying two and a half.
17:21
I know you're get- you're seeing that about minus 130, but you can lay a game and a half and get around that same minus 275-ish price. I think that's a way you could go too if you're looking, uh, at this series.
17:32
But yes, I laid nine game one. Uh, I have them also 4.1, 4.1 result. Again, if you have DraftKings available to you, that plus 250 is by far the best price I've seen out there.
17:42
The best price in Vegas on that is plus 215, uh, that I've s- I've seen so far. So played that. Uh, but if you're looking for other ways to attack the series, that's the way I'd go about it.
17:52
[laughs] The, you know, they have all these, like, exotic markets out there. Yeah.
17:56
You start, like, looking around, and I know, I know people are gonna bet them, but it's just a little bit different I think whenever you look at, at this series in general.
18:04
We saw some big comeback wins, Kelly, obviously, uh, throughout the course of the playoffs so far. So they're allowing you to bet these comeback win markets, which are
18:14
does any team come back from a 20-point deficit, a 25-point deficit, or a 30-point deficit? [laughs] Okay. At 420, plus 425, 10 to 1, and then 22 to 1. Like, here's the thing.
18:27
Oklahoma City plays too good of a defense to ever get down 30. Unless they just wave the white flag. Right, yeah. Like, unless they just Un- unless they just pull everyone.
18:37
But then at that point they're not coming back from being down 30. So like, you know what I'm saying?
18:40
Like- I mean, I actually, I, I'd, I'd hate to say it, I actually think there's a better chance of, of the Pacers pulling off one of those comebacks just because we've ki- at least kinda seen it out of them already- Yeah...
18:49
this playoffs. A- and, and we've seen their, some of their shooters just get nuclear white hot. So, uh, yeah, but no, but at those prices, no. No interest whatsoever. The other interesting thing, market that I guess...
19:01
You know, I should've known that these markets exist, but it's just you start, you start thumbing around and you're like, "Oh, okay, that's a, that market makes sense." Is...
19:09
Have you seen these correct score after game X markets? Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I- Those are actually pretty cool... I got close on a couple of them. Those are pretty cool. Yeah, those are pretty cool.
19:16
You know, like, okay, so for example, so they played three games, right? You can guess the exact score of the series after game three. So you could say that the Thunder are gonna be up two to one.
19:27
You actually get plus 120 on that. You could say that the Thunder are gonna be up three-nothing. You get plus 155 on that. Do you think the Pacers could actually be up two-one after game three? Plus 425.
19:36
And holy mackerel, if the Pacers are up three-oh after three games, Kelly, 28 to 1. Yeah. That, yeah, that, that's not gonna happen. [laughs] Save your money.
19:46
I, I, I did, I did look at those because I think there is a... I'm slightly interested in the Thunder two-one. There's oth- other shops I... And I can't remember- Mm... uh, who's got what posted.
19:56
But there's also, like, there was the after four games, Thunder three-one. That was kinda interesting to me. The th- the three, after three games, Thunder two-one, that's where I'd go, if anything.
20:07
I think if the Pacers take a game it's probably in that game three, maybe game four when they come back home. Um, but they, yeah, I, I would, I wouldn't hate to bet on those. Wouldn't hate to bet on those.
20:17
The other interesting one is, and, and, and, you know, again, you could sit there and try to figure out all different ways that this series plays out, and it could play into your narrative, right?
20:27
So there's also the undefeated at home. Yeah. Yeah. And so if you think the Thunder are so good at home, right?
20:35
The Thunder are so good at home, maybe they drop one on the road, like you said, Kelly, but, like, they are not going to lose at home. It takes that minus 700 all the way down to minus 120. Mm-hmm.
20:47
So the Thunder undefeated at home goes all the way down to minus 120. Yeah, I like that one too. The, the, these are all ones, like I was, I was going through all this stuff too. Just, just ways to get exposure- Yeah.
20:57
Yeah... to the Thunder if you don't wanna lay the minus 700. 'Cause again, I, you know, on a text chain with buddies back home, we were like, "I really like the Thunder, but there's just no...
21:05
I mean, like, I don't have a bankroll to bet $700 to 100, you know?" Yeah, no, I, I th- I think you've picked, uh, you've picked a couple of the ones that, like you said- Yeah...
21:14
as I was just kinda scanning through stuff, I'm like, "That's not bad. That's not bad." Yeah. I think the, the after three two-one, or yes, the Thunder, uh, undefeated at home only minus 120, that's pretty good.
21:24
It, 'cause- I mean, remember, this is a, we talked a lot about yesterday, but what this... Hey, this Thunder team's been incredible.
21:30
They've been incredible at home all season long, but specifically what they're doing in the playoffs, they are clearly much more comfortable at home. Eight and one, uh, through the course of the playoffs.
21:40
Uh, and the net rating those nine games is 24.7. That is an absurd, uh, net rating the, in those nine games that they're doing at home. So they, they are look- looking like a much different team home versus, versus away.
21:52
So just another thing. I, I, I mean, look, I think this Thunder team is too much for the Pacers overall in general, but just another reason if you are looking at a bet like that to push you in that direction.
22:01
I know you guys start your morning over at vsin.com as it is anyway, but if you are driving along and you did not head to vsin.com today, well, head on over there.
22:09
What you can find is Greg Peterson's Major League Baseball bets today. You'll see Steve Makinen's bullpen systems update. You can see what we're talking about with this Pacers and Thunder series.
22:17
Everybody's got their opinion there on that one. Samich comes in and talks some Belmont with you over there. Zach Cohen on the French Open. Wes Reynolds will be having his Canadian Open preview up as well.
22:29
If you're not a VSiN Pro subscriber, vsin.com/subscribe, you can dip your toe in for as little as 9.99 for the first month. So give it a whirl over there at vsin.com and take in all the great work that everyone's doing.
22:41
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:00
Numbers Game here on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:03
Thank you for being with us here on this fine Tuesday morning, be it Channel 158 over on SiriusXM, YouTube TV, our very own VSiN Watch app, or terrestrial stations across this great country of ours.
23:13
Matt Brown and Kelly Bidlin here on the desk at the world's largest sportsbook in Las Vegas, and which, you know, it's always interesting to me- Plenty of seats available...
23:21
this time of morning when you do see, though, there are the couple of s- couple of people who are just kinda out there like, "You know what?" Oh, I love it. Are you kidding me? Yeah, yeah.
23:27
I'll just, I'll take in whatever is on the screen. I don't even care. You got the couple guys with their laptops and coffee, and they're getting to work on their card for the day. I respect it. I respect it.
23:36
Get a little, uh, you got a good tennis match going on. Get all that. Yeah, they're just like, "You know what? I have nothing better to do." That's right.
23:42
I'm gonna walk, get me a, get me a coffee at the jackpots and come and sit down and, uh, see what's, see what action's happening out here at the sportsbook.
23:49
Speaking of action, let's get to the Major League Baseball side of things here on the program. Pro bettor Mark Borcherd now joining us @basewinner over on the Twitter machine. Mark, how you doing, buddy? I'm doing good.
24:03
You know, that's like really good lead in, Matt, 'cause just this card is, like, pretty b- a big card for me today. Mm. Uh, I love the Tuesday card. I love Tuesdays and Fridays in Major League Baseball.
24:15
It's my fav- those were, those are my favorite days of the week, Matt. Well, happy, uh, Paul Skenes Day to you, uh, if you celebrate. I don't know if you do celebrate.
24:22
But, uh, Paul Skenes going up against Lance McCullers in our first first pitch of the day in which the Pirates find themselves.
24:30
This is like, anytime Skenes is on the mound there, Mario, he's s- the Pirates find themselves minus 162 at least over at DraftKings, plus 136 for McCullers there, and the Astros seven and a half the total.
24:41
Uh, M- McCullers finding at least a little bit of success here as he's come off of the IL for f- what seems like, you know, [laughs] forever now.
24:49
Uh, and you know, listen, he's- Career low, I think, from a Velo standpoint with all of that, but he's talked about how he's just pitching a little bit more than he used to in the past.
24:57
That said, a tough matchup going up against Skeens. It doesn't really matter, uh, how good you pitch sometimes going up against Skeens, as we've seen a couple different times this season. Yeah, you know, it's...
25:08
That's another good lead-in, and now we didn't even talk before the show, Matt. You're, you're on fire. [laughs] I don't know. The voice of sports betting, he may, he may need to get his ass back into the studio.
25:17
You're gonna- [laughs]... you're gonna take over for him. But speaking, speaking of Pittsburgh, so this is... I, I played this game on the first five. Hmm. And I think that this is relevant.
25:25
I've got the, the full game priced at minus 191, but the first five priced at, like, minus 250, and I think that makes sense.
25:34
I tell you, for me, it, it makes a, a lot of sense that I don't, don't have to endure the last part of the, the, the Pittsburgh bullpen- Mm... watching them play. Uh, and I d- I also did a, a prop parlay.
25:45
Skeens with, uh... Oh, who's the other guy that I put in there? Uh, Dollander from Colorado. Hmm. Dollander, and I, and I bought down the strikeout.
25:54
So I went Dollander three and a half Ks, over three and a half Ks, with Skeens over five and a half Ks. So those are s- those are actually two plays from one game, uh, that you can get involved with.
26:04
But, uh, yeah, I, you know, I, I played this, uh, full game Skeens at home two weeks ago, and it was the worst experience, uh, dealing with this Pittsburgh bullpen. Uh- Did, did you get Bednard? I- is that what happened?
26:17
No, I didn't. You know, they won. They ended up winning in extra innings. Hmm. And, and but I, I mean, by the grace of God, because, you know, they've got...
26:24
Their fifth, their number five batter, his name is Canario, and I've never seen a guy hold a bat like this. Uh, he, he puts it out in front, like, splits his eyes with the handle- [laughs]...
26:34
and puts it out like a lightsaber, like, like he's Obi-Wan Kenobi. [laughs] So I call him Obi-Wan Canario. And, uh, anyway, I, I just c- I can't, I can't deal with it. Hopefully, you know, Skeens can shut this team down.
26:45
This could be a, a, an advantage push. It could be, uh, zero to zero- Mm-hmm... after first five. So, uh, you know, I... You can't, you can't ignore how good Skeens is. Uh, he's, he's my base winner number two.
26:58
Uh, so I, I played him first five. Yeah, I... It's, it's one of those things, I think people were wondering if he was gonna be able to replicate this year what he was, what he was doing last year, and you kinda see.
27:07
I mean, he's, he's gonna be just, it seems like, a mid two's, high two's ERA type guy with a very low whip, and, and seems like they've not figured out how to get to Paul Skeens.
27:17
One of the games you are looking at as well is this Dodgers and Mets game. We'll roll down here to this evening. That's gonna be 10:10 Eastern, 7:10 Pacific. Tyler McGill versus Clayton Kershaw.
27:30
Minus 142 Dodgers at home, plus 120 Mets on the road as dogs. A flat nine is our total. How are you looking at this one? Yeah, I, I think the wrong team's favored here.
27:40
I, I mean, Kershaw just really hasn't shown much since he's returned. You know, on, on my site, I have a starting pitcher base winner ERA, and it's a fancy name.
27:49
It ki- it, it uses a little bit different than, than xBit, but it's pretty much similar. Uh, strikeout percentage, walk percentage, ground ball percentage.
27:58
And using those metrics, uh, Kershaw's base winner ERA, and he's pitched 11, 11 innings, so there's a sample size thing there, but it's 6.35.
28:07
And then if you look at Tyler McGill, uh, his base winner ERA, a lot more innings, 53.2 innings, is 3.54, so that's close to three runs on the starting pitchers.
28:18
Uh, I do think that the Dodgers offense is a little bit better than the Mets.
28:22
I've got the Dodgers offense b- best in baseball, uh, 25% better than an average, uh, lineup, but the Mets are, are fi- are fifth in baseball, 12% better than an average lineup. So I, I, I think that they can compete.
28:34
I think the bullpen for the Mets is a little bit better, uh, than the Dodgers. So I played a full game Mets plus, uh, I got 138 yesterday. I think it's gone down a little bit, Matt.
28:44
Talking to Mark Borchardt, and we got another game here, 7:10 Eastern, Brewers and the Reds. This is Freddy Peralta and Hunter Green.
28:52
You can get the Reds at home with behind Green at minus 130 favorites, somewhere in that realm, plus 110-ish on the Brewers on the road as dogs. Eight and a half are total. What you looking at in this one?
29:03
Yeah, I like Cincinnati here. I, I really think that, uh... Well, I, it, it's gone up. It was s- uh, minus 116 yesterday on the overnights, but it's e- even at minus 130, it's a good price.
29:13
I think it should be closer to minus 200. And you say, "Why, base winner?" Well, if you look at the base winner ERA for Green, uh, it's 2.94 versus Peralta, and a lot of people like Peralta. I'm not one of them.
29:27
He's actually a little bit worse than average from a, a, a projected ERA standpoint, 4.17. And, uh, I, I think that this, this Reds team, [clicks tongue]
29:40
uh, has a little bit better offense than the Brewers by my numbers. They're about mid-pack by my numbers. Uh, and, and the Brewers, I, I don't have rated very good versus right-handed pitchers, Matt.
29:51
The one game, you said I could ask you about a game that I am looking at, and I shouldn't say looking at, it's already in the account.
29:56
Just curious as to, uh, what you think about this Diamondbacks and Braves game with Zach Gallen and Spencer Strider. It's sitting at eight and a half. I played the over on eight and a half.
30:06
I think we are getting maybe this price a little bit to what Gallen and Strider used to be, as opposed to what Gallen and Strider are maybe present day.
30:14
You talk about the expecteds that you saw with some of these other guys.
30:17
Gallen is, you know, even though his surface stats have him as, you know, a five-plus ERA guy, it's still, like, mid-fours on the expecteds as it is anyway. Strider, down in velocity and just a two-pitch guy.
30:28
And so when you're down in velocity and you're only a two-pitch guy, you've seen what's happened to him so far. So I actually think there could be some runs here in this one. Tell me that I am off base here.
30:39
No, I think that that's a really good way to handicap, and it kind of brings up a good handicapping philosophy. Are you looking at the last... What, how many games are you looking at? Hmm.
30:47
If you're looking at Just this year's data, you're, you're, you're absolutely correct. They're both worse than average. Uh, Gallen, uh, far worse than average. And so, uh, you got that going for, for you with the over.
30:59
And then plus, you know, this Diamondbacks team, I'm, I'm still high on their offense. I've got them... You talked about the Dodgers being first in baseball. I've got the Diamondbacks offense second in baseball.
31:10
And, uh, I've got the Braves eighth in baseball from an offensive standpoint, and there's really not much to like. I'm not that high on either bullpen.
31:18
And I think you can get some runs late in that game too, Matt, so I think that's a, I think that's a really good way to handicap that.
31:23
Uh, you might be taking advantage of people's thoughts o- on how the pitcher is, rather than how, what they've displayed so far, uh, from a talent basis.
31:32
Yeah, Mark, I knew you were high on this Diamondbacks team heading into the season. Corbin Burnes exited the o- other day.
31:37
Where, where are you, where are you at right now with the Diamondbacks going forward, and then anybody else in the NL West that you think could make some noise? Yeah, it's a real...
31:45
That was a really tough thing that happened to, to Corbin the other day, and they're still kinda waiting to see what's going on with him. I, I don't... He had an MRI yesterday.
31:56
Uh, so that's a big deal and, and I think that was a really good get for the Diamondbacks, uh, prior to the season.
32:02
But assuming that he's gonna pitch, oh, let's say he'll be out a month, I still think the Diamondbacks have maybe a 12% chance to, to, to win that division, believe it or not.
32:13
Uh, and the Dodgers, I think for me, probably closer to 75%. So for, for me, it's, it's always been, uh, based on my numbers between these two teams. Uh, the Corbin Burnes thing, it'll be a huge loss.
32:26
I, I really hope he's okay. He's a great guy and a great pitcher and, uh, gosh, I, I'm kinda waiting with bated breath, Kelly, to see what happens with that MRI.
32:36
He is Mark Borchard, Pro Baseball Better, @basewinner over on the Twitter machine. Mark, thanks for the time and good luck today. Thanks, Matt. Appreciate it.
32:45
Always fun to at least get a little bit of a thumbs up there on the, uh, on the bet that you have in your account. Oh, yes. [laughs] You know? It's always good to have that, yeah.
32:51
Little, little bit of a thumbs up there on that one. Guys, EdgeBoost, first ever bank account built for bettors. It ensures all gambling transactions are approved, no usage fees, no minimums.
33:01
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33:09
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33:24
When we come back, we'll check in on... There is some live action here early morning, 'cause we're playing over at Roland-Garros, and look at some baseball of my betting acumen here, Kelly.
33:35
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:00
Numbers game here on VSiN, the sports betting network. Matt Brown in for Gil Alexander. I got the thumbs up on a baseball bet that I had from a professional Major League Baseball bettor, Kelly Bidlin.
34:11
So, uh- That's right. We, we ran out of time... rock and rolling, rocking and rolling there. And I know, there was, there was more to talk about, Nick. Hey, I know.
34:17
You'll have to get in on, uh, his Cy Young thoughts at another time. I scr- I screwed up. Next week we'll have to, uh, go, go a little bit deeper with Mark on, uh, Cy Young.
34:24
When we, when we kicked it over to you, you were supposed to go Cy Young, and instead you just followed up on the Diamondbacks thing. Well, oh, he's been very high on the- Yeah...
34:30
Diamondbacks all year, so I wanted to follow that up- I'm just-... and then we just ran out of time...
34:33
I'm just peeling the curtain back for all the people that like to listen on a daily basis in here, and then when Kelly does something that he's not supposed to do, like- Kelly screwed up once again.
34:40
Yeah, like that's what- What else is new?... that's what we're gonna do. We were, we had written do- I have it written down right here. I could have steered him towards Cy Young.
34:46
Instead we flip it over to Kelly, "Hey, I'm gonna s- steer him towards Cy. Instead, d- talk Diamondbacks through the end of the segment." Yeah. That's fine. Yeah. It is what it is. It is what...
34:55
We got more nuggets about the Diamondbacks- That's right... with all of that. That being said, the Burns news is bad. The bullpen situation for them is at least a little bit interesting as well.
35:07
I mean, they were going with Shelby Miller for a while now. They, they... These bullpens, by the way, it is crazy now how quick...
35:14
If you don't have one of the super elite closers, and actually in the Yankees case even if you do, you, you have like three bad outings and everyone starts screaming for the next guy in line.
35:25
Like, I mean, it is, it is no joke. Like, they want you out of the closer role instantly if you give up, like, a run. It's like college baseball. Like, there's- Get him out right away. Yeah. Oh, my g... So
35:36
watching that game last night, just real quick, I went to LSU, y'all know that already. Um- Pitched at LSU... so we're watching this and, uh- You never saw him pitch... sitting there.
35:45
The, the, so, uh, the screaming, 'cause I told you, 11 walks the night before. Yeah. Start walking people again, you know, in this game, and I, like, I'm screaming. I'm just like, "Just throw it over the plate.
35:55
Like, make them... See if they can even hit. Like, you don't e- you're not even seeing if they can hit the ball." So I, I watched the beginning. You- I c- I couldn't text you because I was watching all of that. Yeah.
36:06
I was like, "Oh, God." I mean, what, and what are you ta- it was like one or two big hits that basically brought in every run- Yeah. Yeah... because of all the walks.
36:14
And all right, it was the, it was the 5-1 [laughs] I was like, I'm sitting there kinda giggling to myself like- Yeah... "Oh, boy, this is, this is gonna be rough."
36:20
Well, you start to see, and granted NIL has, has something to do with this as well, where kids will stay in school now 'cause they can make money instead of just going straight to the, to the bigs.
36:28
But, like, you look at LSU's pitching staff, and you wonder, like, how do you have all these dudes throwing, like, mid to high 90s- Yeah... and they're not in the pros? Yeah.
36:35
Like, why didn't they go straight from high school? That's why. Yeah. Mm. They can't throw it over the plate. That's why. Like, I mean, granted, sure, they're probably
36:44
racking up some dough anyway, and so it's just like they took a little less money to go to college and then up their stock and then maybe make more money or something.
36:51
But it's just crazy that you're sitting there and it's like you're one th- you're, you're in college, and if you throw... gas like that. You throw 96, 97, 98 in college,
37:03
by and large, th- yeah, the really good hitters are gonna get to you, but if you can throw it over the plate, like, you're probably gonna have some pretty good success. Right. Right. Right.
37:11
And they just can't throw it over the plate. They just can't. They just can't get it over the plate. They cannot do it. They just cannot, they just can't do it. Do, do you think we're gonna see...
37:17
I, I, I would assume yes, but I think one of the big stories, at least up until this point, until we... A- and let's see what happens in- Mm...
37:23
the Super Regionals, but are some of the success, right, of these underdogs, mid-majors- Mm... that type of story.
37:29
We, but we, we just spent all of this college basketball, uh, in NCAA tournament talking about how all of these bigger conference teams are just going with NIL deals, just going to absorb all of the talent from those mid-major ranks.
37:41
You think the same thing's gonna end up b- Yeah... happening in college baseball? What already...
37:44
I mean, like, LSU's transfer cl- Like, so if you go in and you look, and, like, the reason this team is what it is, 'cause they lost a lot of dudes over the last two years. But a lot of issues with transfers.
37:53
Just reloading. Yeah, there's transfers. Yeah. They're, they're transferring in. They wanna play at a bigger s- school. They wanna play at a bigger program. They wanna be on TV more often, or at all. Yeah.
38:01
'Cause some of these kids, like, literally they're never on TV, 'cause college baseball is rarely on TV as it is anyway, unless you are on the ACC network or SEC network or whatever, something like that.
38:08
So yeah, I mean, it's, it's all sports, especially in the South where baseball is big. They actually do spend NIL money. Mm-hmm. Like, down at LSU- Mm...
38:17
and, you know, Ole Miss and Alabamas and stuff and things of the world, Texas and stuff like that. Like, they're, they- Yeah, it's gonna be interesting to watch, 'cause this, uh...
38:23
May, may be a, a watch, uh, watch this one a little extra longer this year, 'cause it might be [laughs] the last time we get some of these teams. [laughs] I mean, seriously, it very well could be.
38:32
Guys, we're talking about the Belmont that is coming up.
38:34
If you wanna bet along with our experts here at the network, and of course all the guests that we'll have on between now and when this thing goes on Saturday, you can do that over at First Bet, 1stbet.com.
38:46
Go in, use the promo code VSIN200, and when you do, you will get up to a $200 sign-up bonus. So firstbet.com/VSIN, 1stbet.com/VSIN for, uh, for, /VSIN, VSIN200 your promo code for up to $200.
39:02
Kelly, you can make the bets in the app, and then you can actually watch the races right there in the app as well. So instant gratification for you over at First Bet. Which is, like, a really cool fut- uh, f- Yeah...
39:13
uh, feature. I know, I know we have that on some of the sportsbook, uh, apps, but in my experience- But you don't wanna watch a game on a little tiny thing. Exactly that.
39:21
But when the horse races are- It's over in a two, two minutes or whatever. Well, well, two things. That, and they're harder to find. Yeah. Right? For most people, if you're- Yeah...
39:28
at home, out and about or whatever, it's just harder to find a feed of that. So- You don't wanna watch three hours on a tiny little screen like that or whatever.
39:35
And don't get me wrong, hey, sports books, it's innovate, fine. No, yeah. Put, put the ads, great. Like, I mean- A- a- and I've seen people do it, so. [laughs] Yeah, yeah, yeah. Innovate, do all of that.
39:42
I'm not telling you not to do it. [laughs] But what I will say is it's, it's far easier for me to watch on a tiny screen when it's only two minutes long. It's like, "Okay."
39:48
And then you see whether you won or you lost, and then you move on. Yeah. No, it's, it's a good call. You know, you just, you just kind of go on.
39:52
Hey, great, great stuff on the Illinois and betting at the top of the show. We're getting a lot of positive reaction to that.
39:57
I'm not, I'm not gonna go into all of the WeGet tweets 'cause some of them are, uh, are quite political one side [laughs] or the other. [laughs] Is there cursing involved?
40:04
I saw a- But, uh, but no, it was a great, great, uh, great little, uh, bit by you at the top, and I think important information for all every bettor to know.
40:10
If you're betting, betting legally and betting legally in the United, legally in the United States, these are the things you need to be aware of, uh, in the political landscape.
40:17
Yeah, it's just stuff that kind of, kind of goes under the radar, and, you know, we have to amplify it. Mm-hmm. Because when we see it, we need to let, let everybody know.
40:26
As we mentioned, Sabalenka advances, Iga advances in straight sets over on the women's side. We're in the middle of Musetti and Tiafoe right now.
40:33
Musetti six-two in the first set, but they are battling here in the second set, four-three currently. Tiafoe looks like he's up a break if this, uh- If-... if this is correct. Yeah.
40:42
And then, uh, we have Paul Alcaraz a little bit later. We'll talk to Drew Dinsick and his thoughts on that one as well. So I said I had that bet baseball play in which I did bet the over there in Diamondbacks and Braves.
40:55
If you go in and look, and, like, Zach Gallen, I know Zach Gallen has had a lot of success in baseball, but I mean, it's just this year i- it's not happening so far. And that's not to say that he can't figure things out.
41:07
He, he's certainly a talented dude. But if you look at the surface stats, and they don't always tell the story,
41:13
554 ERA with a 14 whip, but then you go and you look at the expecteds, and it's up there in the fours, right?
41:19
He is, he's just a four ERA guy right now, and the other problem that's kind of working against Gallen in all of this is his walk rate is up two and a half percent from last year.
41:29
His K rate is down two and a half percent from last year, and his swinging strikes are down as well, and he's doing all of this and these numbers are coming up while he's actually running on the right side of variance because the babip against him right now, and that's batting average balls in play, is sitting at 280, where the league average is 300.
41:47
So all of these bad stats, Kelly- Mm-hmm... are actually coming when he's actually running kind of on the right side of variance- Yeah... in this. So- That's not good.
41:55
Yeah, so I think eight and a half runs is a little shot here on, on Strider. Again, Strider,
42:01
major injury, and maybe he picks it up over the course of the season as he works back into things and all of that, but it hasn't been pretty so far. His expecteds are high fours.
42:12
So we're talking like 482 XFIP, a, a 491 xERA. And the thing that we talked about, you know, with him is he was always a super high strikeout guy, which is how he got by on just kind of throwing the two pitches.
42:26
Well, 28.6% K rate last year before he get in- got injured. Before that, a ridiculously unsustainable 36% K rate the year before that, but down to 25% this year, swinging strikes down 4% off of his career average.
42:40
That's a lot, by the way. That is a ton. So just for me, I think some runs can get scored in this game off of both of these dudes who are just not pitching very well, uh, right now.
42:50
And this is just a weather play on the other one for me. Wind is blowing out, like, 13, 14 miles an hour in Sacramento. We've already seen that this is a hitter's park as it is anyway. Yeah.
42:58
And now the weather's warming up, and we get the wind blowing out 13, 14 miles an hour. I played the over nine and a half in that game versus the Twins.
43:06
As of this morning, they, the A's had still not even announced who they were gonna pitch in this thing- Oh, I s-... which is never great. Yeah, I... And, and you know what?
43:13
'Cause I was, I was digging into that a little bit, was, was thinking about tailing you on that one today. The...
43:18
Be careful because I think I saw one, [laughs] one shop with a pitcher listed, and then everybody else still said undecided, so. Yeah.
43:25
I don't know what you make of it when you see that, but when it was only one shop and not multiple, you know, there's not a second one to corroborate it, that always makes me a little nervous. Hey, if they don't want to
43:34
th- tell me who's pitching, that's great because that probably means it's someone that's not very good. So I'm, I'm okay with that one. I'm just betting the runs here. So, uh- Right... over there in that one.
43:44
Just some other notes as you are betting baseball throughout the course of the day. It's rainy in Tampa. Don't know if that could get postponed or not, but certainly might be delayed, so look at that.
43:53
Chicago has some weather situations that are going on out there. Maybe a little bit in St. Louis as well, but looks like that's gonna pass. Maybe they just start a little bit later there in St. Louis.
44:04
Wind's blowing out in that stadium actually, 14, 15 miles an hour as well. Warming up in St. Louis, so we could see some runs there at Busch.
44:12
So just keep that in mind as you are getting your card ready for today if you want to tail or if you want to fade, of course. We're okay with any of that.
44:20
When we come back, let's talk some hockey with the one, the only, Jake Hontz. [upbeat music]
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