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Jun 3, 2026
A Numbers Game | June 3, 2026 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | June 3, 2026 | Hour 1
00:00
46:08
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:11
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. That right there is Kelly Midlin. Heyo.
0:22
[laughs] W- what every- You know, you d- you don't expect late May, early June to have this much co- this much drama. Mm-hmm. But I don't even know where to start this morning. Good job, sports. Uh, good job, sports.
0:34
It's the best reality show there is. Oh, it's amazing. It really is. Yes, well said. I mean, c- maybe not as good as the Summer House reunion part one and two, but yeah, it's, it's up there.
0:42
NBA off-season's up there too, yep. Uh, Kyle Aikens will join us today. He's the only guy that has a shot at beating me in the, uh, VSiN Killer Sports, uh, NBA challenge. He will join us later on the show.
0:51
Toddy Wishnow to talk WNBA with us. Ooh. How about that? Let's go. He wants to talk about the W. The W. Will Hill, NBA finals thoughts, Major League Baseball, and more. Never sleep on more.
1:01
Paul Spora on baseball, Nick Whalen on the NBA finals. This just in, the NBA finals begins tonight. And we can't even open with that.
1:09
We'll have to wait a second before we get into the Spurs and the Knicks, because wh- where should I start? Hockey or tennis? Take your pick. Yeah, let's start with tennis. Just happened. Um- Sabs. This is now easily...
1:21
I, I was holding back on this superlative kind of comment, 'cause you don't wanna be prisoner of the moment, and you watched b- you know, tens of thousands of tennis matches- Mm-hmm...
1:28
and thousands of tennis tournaments in your life. This is easily now the most chaotic slam that I ever remember. I, it's y- definitely been up there for me. Don't remember anything crazier than this.
1:39
You are going to have an Italian man in the men's semis and a Polish lady in the women's semis, and their names are not Sinner and Swiatek. [laughs] Well done. I don't know. That's awesome.
1:52
First of all, first of all, here's, here's the, uh, f- in terms of the matches today and tomorrow in terms of our bets for VSiN subscribers, let's get that out of the way first, vsin.com/picks.
2:00
I had Maya Walenska for the third time in this tournament. Had her as a short dog against Anna Kalinskaya. She is on her way. The Pole is on her way- Wow... to the women's semis [laughs] where she, you'd, you'd think.
2:13
By the way, Flavio Cobolli is about to start against Felix Auger-Aliassime. I'm on Cobolli, or I believe it's pronounced Cobolli, versus FAA. So I am on Cobolli as my only other play today.
2:24
That's about to start tomorrow. I'm already on Marta Kostyuk. Subscribers already got that. Marta Kostyuk versus Mirra Andreeva in one of the women's semis.
2:31
Now, we thought, right, that Maya Walenska would, would play [laughs] Aryna Sabalenka in the semis. Nope. Sabalenka up one set and 5-3 against Diana Schneider,
2:47
and Aryna Sabalenka proceeds to lose the next 10 games. She gets broken. Jeez, man. She loses that second set 7-5, and then, uh, down one, uh, one love in the third set.
3:01
In a really tightly contested second game, she gets broken, and a mental collapse the likes of which you're not likely to see for the rest of, I don't know, maybe the day in this tournament. [laughs] For the day. Yeah.
3:12
Maybe not even. Ugh. Sh- the world number one goes down, and we have, again, a, we have a women's f- a women's semifinal set. Uh, who on earth had this? Maya Walenska against Diana Schneider. Totally.
3:28
Now, here's the thing. I... W- Walenska, as I mentioned, w- well, l- here's the backstory on Walenska. She's Polish. You know what her claim to fame is before this tournament? She's Iga- Uh, the Polish Open...
3:41
she's Iga Swiatek's best friend. They've been friends since they were 10 years old. The difference, though, is that while Iga was going, you know, Iga, this incredible athletic, just athleticism.
3:55
She rises to number one in the world. She wins six slams. Right. Meanwhile, her best friend, Maya, who's five foot five, right, is completely different physical stature. Mm-hmm.
4:05
Is, is grinding it out on the Challenger tours and stuff. Is grinding it out on, like, 125s and Challengers. Oof. Now, I don't bet those, but I'm aware of her, and I'm aware of her clay numbers.
4:16
Uh, she also had a mental health break from the sport. I mean, it's been, it's been janky for her, even, even playing on the lower tours. Mm-hmm.
4:22
But I s- but her clay numbers on those lower tours remind one of what Iga's were when she rose, before she rose to the, to the main tour. The problem is that, again, she's five foot five.
4:35
She's not gonna s- she's not gonna out- she's not gonna serve you to death. She's not gonna overpower you. Her game is just completely crafty. So sh- her first round match was against Zheng Qinwen. Mm-hmm.
4:44
I don't know if you remember this. Yep. I did, I did this on air. My numbers said, "Well, Gil, your numbers, they say Walenska." I didn't have the onions to bet it. Mm-hmm.
4:53
'Cause I'm like, "Well, this is a step up in competition. Let me s- let me show some humility in the numbers." And she beats Zheng Qinwen, and I hate myself for it, right?
5:01
'Cause I'm like, I'm like, "I'm not letting that happen again." I do remember this, yep. So three out of the next four matches now, I have bet Walenska, including a big dog against Elise Mertens.
5:11
Uh, can't remember who I had her as, like, a minus 140 favorite, and now as a plus 102, uh, winner against Alan Con- Anna Kalinskaya. This tournament is bananas. Yeah. Just bananas.
5:21
Lookin', lookin' at a couple tweets here, Gil. We've got, so what the in-game number on Sabalenka had gotten up to minus 10,000 for her to close out. Yeah. And then this- It was on her serve at 5-4...
5:32
seeing this from ESPN with another number one loss, uh, by Sabalenka today. There will be no former champion left in both the women's or wom- men's or women's semifinal.
5:42
The last major win that happened was the 1977 French Open. Well, there you go. There you go. Puts what you're saying into context. Yeah. It's incredible. I don't remember 1977 slams. Sorry. But that's, that is the story.
5:54
We are gonna get a, we're gonna get a new slam winner on the women's side. We're gonna get a new slam winner on the men's side.
5:58
And this, of course, this women's, uh, is coming after, of course, the entire men- Men's side meshugas, where Medvedev, where, you know, Carl- Carlitos didn't even come to play. Right. He had a wrist injury.
6:09
Medvedev lost in the first round, you know. And then I think Shelton lost, and then Sinner, of course, has the heat stroke. Mm-hmm. 5-1, up two sets, loses to Juan Manuel Cerundolo.
6:21
Then after that, complete chaos with Tommy Paul, with Alex de Minaur, with Djokovic, of course. Anyway, the men's, the men's side collapsed even before the women's side. This is incredible.
6:31
I- is this the, is this the surface, Gil, that you are most likely or least likely to get crazy results out of? That's a great question, and I would say least. Yeah, okay. Because you ge- you genuinely...
6:43
Well, you can look at it two- 'Cause we get clay specialists, right? You can look at it two ways. I mean, the serve bots do get mitigated. Get... You're right.
6:48
But the f- this French Open is an anomaly, because typically, you would get favorites getting through on French Opens more than the other Slams at, at a higher rate. Mm-hmm. So this is a complete just, what is going on?
7:01
Yeah, it's fascinating. And, and, and by the way, I talked about how I had Walinska three times. I'd never had Schneider. In fact, I faded her in the last round, right? Mm-hmm.
7:08
I, I just, 'cause her clay numbers on the main tour, just very kind of good-ish, a little above average, but they're nothing spectacular. And here we are.
7:18
Kobrli, the next play for us, uh, right now after the, uh, Walinska win earlier this morning. We'll see if we can get that home against FAA. Hey, good job with the spelling. Yeah, nicely done.
7:28
And tomorrow, by the way, I have Kostyuk against Andreva. Did I mention that? I think I did. We have Kostyuk to win it all, and that Kostyuk becomes the short shot to win the ladies side.
7:36
But b- the way this tournament's going, man, hey, let's take it o- let's take it one match at a time. And then there was hockey last night. Now, with tennis, as you know, multiple bets every day.
7:46
Really, out of 365 days a year, with the exception of grass season, I mean, it's over 300 days easily. Mm-hmm. 320 days easily of betting tennis.
7:54
Hockey, Kelly and I, we were just sort of g- we were sort of laughing before the show. It's like, it's unbelievable. And we just, w- we, it's not a, it's not for us to bet. But what a hockey game- Yeah...
8:05
last night to start off the Stanley Cup Final between the Golden Knights and the Hurricanes. Wow. You know what we said after game one of the, uh, Thunder-Spurs series?
8:13
Man, if we get a series like this every night, it'll be incredible. We didn't get that in the Spurs-Thunder series. I'm okay with it, as long as the Spurs won the series. But this was a classic to begin.
8:24
First of all, Nikolai Ehlers scores 25 seconds into it for the Hurricanes, the third fastest Stanley Cup Final goal of all time. Dude. Okay, I know I am, I know I'm not the biggest hockey guy or historian. Yeah.
8:37
Were you not shocked when that little nugget came up, and I was like, "This is the third"? There have been two faster than this. Yeah, yeah. I- Like, it was right away. It was incredible.
8:46
Well, they played a lot of finals, so it makes, makes sense. [laughs] They played a lot, but still surprising. It's, it's one to nothing Hurricanes immediately, and then Ehlers scores again in the first period.
8:53
It's two to nothing, and, and immediately my brain goes to, yeah, it's the, it's the 12 and 1 Hurricanes- Mm-hmm... who are chasing this 1988 16 and 2 Oilers record that I've been bringing up. A- and two sick shots.
9:06
You know what I mean? L- and, like, let me give credit to those shots, Gil, before we get to the Golden Knights' first goal. Oh, fantastic. It's like a pinball machine. I mean, pfft.
9:15
So then, now here's, I, kind of the key to the game, right? It's two to nothing. I mean, Go- the Golden Knights look out of sorts completely. Yeah.
9:22
But they get a, uh, they get a one-timer from Shea Theodore, Golden Knights lifer, to cut it to two to one, still in the first period, and they hold that one-goal deficit into the first intermission, which was kind of key because the Golden Knights really hadn't found their game at that point.
9:37
Come out second period, 30 seconds in- [laughs]... Barbashev, uh, when the, uh, Hurricanes fail to clear the puck, ties it up two to two, and then the Knights take the lead.
9:49
William Karlsson, another Vegas Golden Knight lifer, one of the three of them, along with Shea Theodore and Brayden McNabb, he plants himself in front of the goal. Mitch Marner with just this unbelievable pass- Mm-hmm...
10:00
from behind the net. Three to two Golden Knights. But here's, I mean, here's where it just became a classic. Hurricanes tie it up before the end of the second period on a Jordan Stall goal, three to three.
10:10
We go into the fourth period. Less than 90 seconds in, Brett Howden tips in a slapper. Can always handicap those tips, those, uh- Oh, hell yeah... deflected shots. Hell yeah. Four to three Golden Knights.
10:23
We're more than halfway through the fourth period like, "Okay, Golden Knight's gonna take this, right?" Nope. Um, Shane Gottesber
10:31
with a, Gottes- uh, uh, Gottesber with a, you know, after a face-off where the puck sort of trickles out, he gr- he immediately seizes on it, puts it past the, uh, the netminder, and it's four to four.
10:48
And so it's four to four with less than five minutes left, and then, then just the goal, gorgeous goal. We used to call it in basketball, we used to call it the give and go.
10:54
Why don't they ever say give and go in basketball anymore? That used to be, like, a '70s, '80s term. Ah, well, you just, you frankly just don't see it as much. Uh, Tomas Hertl- True give and goes...
11:03
who, uh, he missed, I, I, I didn't get the license plate on the, uh, Golden Knight teammate that he missed on a pass. It would've been a breakaway. But he stays with the, with the play. He, uh, corrals the puck.
11:12
He gets it to Colton Sissons, who then just flips it back, fig- figures Hertl will be there, flips it back to Hertl, who puts it past Anderson at the Golden...
11:23
And then, of course, the thing that has been the staple of the Golden Knights' playoff run, and then they lock it down. Mm-hmm.
11:28
With three and a half minutes left, up 5-4, not only do the Hurricanes not score and the, and the Knights win, but they barely get a good shot off.
11:37
And the Golden Knights take home ice with a five to four win, a one to nothing lead in the best of seven Stanley Cup Final. What a game. And congratulations to all our fellow Knights fans out here. Coming back, NBA next.
11:52
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12:07
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12:22
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12:46
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13:07
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13:19
Uh, this is from, let me start with last night, 'cause, uh, Jim Campbell was asking-- or actually, Sam Fichette, first of all, "Megapod coming for World Cup?"
13:27
We are going to-- we ma-made an executive decision yesterday, 'cause Paul Carr was so thorough for two segments yesterday, I don't wanna have to make him run it back in the pod.
13:35
We are going to do a combilat- a compilation of A and G segments for the World Cup podcast, which will be out by the end of this week.
13:44
Also, if you are mark, were marking your calendars, Paul Carr back on tomorrow to finish off, uh, the groups- Oh, tomorrow now... with us instead of Friday, yes. Okay. So we have- He had to move.
13:52
He had some s- travel on Friday... so Paul group by group, all of his bets, Chris Vleka, all of his bets- Mm-hmm... on the, uh, Megapod, which will, uh, be out by Friday. Thank you for the question, Sam.
14:02
Had a couple of those on the, uh, World Cup pod. Jim Campbell: "I heard Fezzik last Friday saying that people should follow Todd Wisniew's Discord channel. I tried searching for his name, but nothing came up.
14:10
Do either of you have the link to share? Thanks." Uh, we'll talk to Todd about that when he comes on.
14:15
He's got to, uh, I think he's maxed out on his Discord channel, so he can't let anybody else in, but we'll get an update on that from him.
14:21
Also, I appreciate you trusting, uh, Gil and I, though, to be able to share a Discord link, 'cause I don't even know where to start on that. [laughs] That's right. Gordon Dye: "Did Sabalenka just pull off a Sinner?
14:32
Good grief." Roman Dago: "In shock at the collapse those last 10 games." Danny Bremet: "LOL, Sabalenka just got bageled." Um, Willie B.
14:41
Betten, formerly DGen Southern Gent, says, "Schneider served back-to-back third set bagels to Grand Slam champs.
14:46
In the words of the great urban laureate TI, she, quote, 'made her opponents scramble like eggs and breakfast.' Also, I made a meme to commemorate [laughs] Walynsky's amazing run. Please don't hate me, Gil."
14:57
You know that one where the guy is with a girl and then he looks back at the other girl? Yeah. Yeah, he's got him with Iga, then looking back at Walynsky now. Uh, John A.
15:04
Cornell Jr.: "Evert and Billie Jean wouldn't even qualify with these women today."
15:10
Uh, Kings C- oh, here's what, [laughs] here's what, here's, uh, uh, JD in Florida: "Never bet a tennis tourney where I just gave up trying to handicap it. Wild doesn't begin to explain it."
15:20
Paulie 68: "Can I point out possibly the most craziest factoid that was continued last night in game one of the Stanley Cup Finals?" Oh yeah, I heard about this one. "For the 46th year in a row,
15:31
a teammate of Jaromir Jagr is playing in the [laughs] finals." Yes, 40- What?... 46 years in a row. Is that, is that true? I didn't hear 46. Is that right? Who is it this year?
15:42
Uh, this year it is, um, uh, J- no, is it Jordan Staal? I thought it was one of the Knights. I also co- Yeah... I also couldn't tell you the last year that, uh, he played in.
15:53
I mean, what- Oh, it's been a while [laughs] It's been a while. But that, the, what it is, is a reflection of the span of his career and how many of these generations that he, uh- That's incredible... that he spanned.
16:04
Rick Olea: "Hey, guys, so I watched my first episode of Love Island last night, so, uh, are they all this awkward? Is this a Scandoval show? Is football back yet?" Okay, it's not the Scandoval show.
16:15
Love Island is disgusting. I watched it with Gracie. It's just, there's too much. And if- It's too much... i- if you want real love, just go to Greg Peterson's Twitter feed. That's right. That's right.
16:25
By the way- That's where the real reality show is... by the way, I wanna give Greg a hug. I really do. Hey. We gotta talk about that.
16:31
Nick, Real Nicks: "We've all been caught up in how amazing the New York Knicks' run through the playoffs has been, but is VGK's run equal to or even better than that?"
16:40
I mean, you had 11 teams in hockey that had a higher point total than the Golden Knights. Mm-hmm. 11. It's incredible. It's like they, the playoffs started, they're just like, "Watch us, watch us now."
16:51
Third Stanley Cup Final in nine years of existence, going for their second cup. Incredible. Absolutely incredible. We got more tweets to read, but I wanna talk, uh, NBA final.
17:01
You wanna, you wanna do-- You look like you're pensive about Greg still. You wanna say something? No, I, it's, uh- Okay... it's very interesting to track on Twitter. Mm. It is, but- You say you wanna give him a hug.
17:10
I wanna give him a hug, too, but he keeps tweeting, so, like, I, I, it's, it's- That's true... n- not feeling bad for the guy or anything right now. [laughs] He keeps tweeting. I, he, you know why I, I bring it up?
17:18
'Cause he's such a nice guy. We love Greg. Just, like, uh, maybe stop tweeting. That's what I would do. That's probably good brotherly advice right there. Yeah. Yeah, okay. Uh, Knicks and Spurs begins tonight.
17:29
Spurs favored by four and a half. This, uh, this series price has kind of gone down a little bit. Dude, there was one drop to minus 180 at Westgate this morning before getting hit back.
17:40
It's back to 185 right now, but still, man. Yeah. This is getting out of control. It is. I, I mean, this is where, we were, where we would have-- This is why I keep bringing it up. It's, it's fascinating to me.
17:52
I don't have the answers.
17:53
I'm not sitting here and saying that this is gonna be for sure a Spurs runaway, but if we just pull up what regular season kind of market ratings would have this at, Drew brought this up a little bit yesterday This game one line is a point and a half, two points off.
18:09
You take it, you take into account where the total would be. The total would be higher in the regular season. It is lower.
18:14
But still, you're probably about a point and a half, two points off where a regular season line would be.
18:18
So how much of an 11 game span where they rip off 11 wins, cover 10 of them, New York Knicks look incredible, win by over 20 points per game in each one of those, how much do you adjus- i- is a proper adjustment for a power rating?
18:32
I, and I, I find it interesting. I'm really not arguing either side, Gil. Yeah. I find it interesting. You and I are both kind of heavier Spurs guys. Yes. So this is...
18:41
Look, game one, I, I, I find this tough tonight because I think there is something about the qui- the turnaround for San Antonio. I don't want to say quick. You've brought it up multiple times.
18:51
It's f- there's four days off here. Mm-hmm. Plenty of time to take off. But man, Wemby even talked about it yesterday.
18:57
Like Wemby saying into a microphone that, "I don't know if my, our team's heads are where they need to be at," is [laughs] is definitely concerning. And I don't know why you would say that, but- Yeah... okay.
19:07
Um, so I'm a little con- Why would you really? Yeah... I'm a little concerned on the side. I did play the... I think this is the Knicks.
19:13
If you are a Knicks believer, I think this is the Knicks' best, best shot of winning a game in San Antonio is tonight. Uh, World Cup final, which we attended, Knicks beat- N- NBA Cup. NBA Cup. What'd I say?
19:26
I was like, "Man," I was like, "Man, Gil got off the NBA finals quick. Wow." [laughs] Oh, I'm sorry. N- NBA Cup, whatever they're calling it, right? December 16th, which we attended.
19:34
124-113 Knicks, but as you mentioned, that was Wembanyama coming off the bench. Right. Right? Load management. Later that month, on, uh, New Year's Eve- Another limited game for Wemby...
19:45
another limited game for Wemby, Spurs won 134 to 132, uh, in a game where Champagnie scored 36. Sure. Wembanyama scored 31 in 23 minutes. It's incredible. Oh, my God.
20:02
Um, and then the, uh, the final game, the rubber match, if you will, you know, if you're counting that cup game because remember, the game happened, but the stats didn't- Mm-hmm... by NBA rules.
20:14
Uh, the final one was, what was that, in March? Yeah, beginning of March- Yeah... where the Knicks beat the Spurs 114 to 89. Um, Wembanyama had 25 in 34 minutes in that game.
20:27
What was the, what was the story in that game? Um, oh, the, uh, Spurs couldn't hit a three to save their lives. Mm-hmm. Um, and the, but the Knicks out-rebounded them 54 to 41 and 18 to 10 on the offensive glass.
20:40
Which is- And the Spurs committed 22 turnovers in that game. So to whatever extent previous matchups should fa- should, you know, enter your handicapping, there you go. I, I, I think that's...
20:50
I love that you, you brought that up 'cause there's not a ton that I think you can take away from regular season matchups just because of player availability and how much the Knicks specifically have changed how they're playing.
21:02
But I think the one that you kind of can take over is that the Knicks have beat up on the Spurs on the, on the glass, which I find interesting 'cause I think that's what, it makes Mitchell Robinson's availability in this series that much more important.
21:16
And, and it's, it's, it's funny to talk about a backup, [laughs] backup in any sport, right, at any level being so important, but it's just a massive trickle-down effect.
21:25
If he can't play or is limited or re-injures this hand and misses games, the importance that Karl-Anthony Towns on both sides of the ball and mainly to stay out of foul trouble becomes massive.
21:37
And yes, we expect to see OG Anunoby guarding Wemby a lot with some of that help, uh, from Karl-Anthony Towns, but it affects all these matchups.
21:45
A- and on the other side of the ball, one th- one bet I did make tonight, I went over two and a half threes and over three and a half threes, uh, for Josh Hart.
21:52
I've heard a couple people bring this up, but we've seen the Spurs play this defense a lot during the playoffs and the regular season, and we've seen other teams play this defense against the Knicks, where they s- they will put their big on Hart, let him sag off into the paint.
22:06
It leaves Wemby that i- in roaming mode, and it should allow Josh Hart some more open looks from three. So I'm betting overs on him. Maybe San Antonio, i- this is all, this is what I love about playoff basketball, right?
22:18
Maybe we don't see that from San Antonio right away. They show that a little bit more later. But I think at some point in this series you're gonna see Josh Hart get some open looks from three. So play tonight or no?
22:29
Staying, steering clear. Playing on the props. I'm over- Playing on props. But steering-... over two and a half, over three and a half. What I bet, I bet small. I brought this up yesterday. I bet this small.
22:36
Knicks game one, Spurs to win the series is close to, like, five to one at MGM. I got it plus 490, I think is where I got it at. That's the only thing I have tonight.
22:45
But Gil, it's the, I think this is the best chance for the Knicks to win one. If the Knicks win th- this one, I already think the series price is low. 24 hours from now, the narrative is, is, it's so stark, right? Right.
22:57
It's, well, if the Knicks win, maybe that's the only one they get, as we talked about. On the other hand, if the Spurs win, oh, God. And, and the nature of the win is gonna matter big. The nature of the win. I agree.
23:07
The nature of the win is large. Oh, boy. If, if Knicks win, this is gonna be a hammer Spurs series price for me after. [laughs] Can't wait. Nick Whelan with hi- with his thoughts on the NBA finals on the other side.
23:18
It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Don't forget, with football season coming, so are the contests that follow.
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Schedule your appointment now at winnerscircleproxy.com. We got tweets. Speed of the book, Abe Brown, down in Jungle Land, "O's high school athletic trainer checking in.
24:02
Uh, heatstroke is a life-threatening situation when body temp regulating system fails and core temp rises over 104. When you hear about a football player dying due to heatstroke, that's heatstroke.
24:10
Or due to heat, that's heatstroke. Sinner more likely had heat exhaustion." Pardon me? I appreciate the clarification Get it together, Dr.
24:18
Alexander Jesse Welch, "Has there ever, has there been a single time in sports betting history," oh, this is a great tweet.
24:24
"Has there been a single documented time in sports betting history when the pundits all like a bet directionally and it actually comes through? I heard no less than 25 people," [laughs] that's his count. Hmm.
24:35
"25 people say under goals in the hockey game last night, and of course there's 50 goals in it." Ah. I think his stats might be a little, uh, off, but I get the point. Yeah, it was, uh...
24:47
I mean, it was, it was done all... It was done quick. Yeah. First goal in 25 seconds, three goals in the first period, and then it was six goals in by the end of the second. Poke Therapy.
24:57
JCon did not have a play on the, uh, total last night, but he should be pointed out.
25:00
Poke Therapy, "Someone needs to ask Todd what he saw in three and a half minutes of hockey to bet the Knights goal total under two and a half. I have a bet for Todd.
25:08
Knights plus," uh, excuse me, "Knights minus one and a half games, plus 130, and Knights in four plus 650 talking a week." I assume he's talking about Wishnev in the Discord? Uh, Bruce Dobigan, "Enjoying as always.
25:21
My grandfather called them net minders in hockey, except the term now is goalie. Interesting side note, basketball was invented by a Canadian who decided no goalies in his sport."
25:30
Man, see what Bruce Dobigan did right there? Brought it all together for us. Well, Wemby disagrees.
25:34
Brendan, who, uh, yesterday asked us, "I need the go-ahead to hammer the Hurricanes," today he says, "I need the go-ahead to hammer the Spurs, boys." Go ahead. Go ahead. Hammer away.
25:44
[laughs] That's gonna be our answer to all those. JD in Florida, "Fezzik channeling his, his Chuck Woolery to help G-Unit with dating. I sense a Dating Game segment this summer may be needed with Steve hosting.
25:55
Back in two and two." Fezzik hasn't chimed- Ooh... in on it yet, has he? Are you telling me that he's already chimed in on it? I don't know. I kind of like this idea, though. Hmm.
26:02
Friday, we t- we just, we pop out of here a half hour early, go enjoy a nice breakfast, leave Steve and Greg to solve all the world's problems. Actually, we wouldn't have a show when we came back on Monday. Never mind.
26:11
Patrick Kelly, "For Vsan++ there should be outtakes of Kelly facials, uh, Kelly's facial contortions when not realizing he's on camera. They're great though. I love Greg, and he does need a hug and some Kelly magic."
26:20
We have these little lights on the cameras. I'm very aware when I'm on camera. I... Darnell was- [laughs]... was really enjoying putting me up on camera though.
26:26
We haven't told Kelly yet that when the light is on that the cameras are... We haven't told him yet. [laughs] Paulie68, "Let me assist." Oh, I was right.
26:32
And first off, Vegas' Rasmus, uh, Rasmus Andersen keeps it going for Ja- for Jaromir Jagr. Uh, Jagr himself debuted in the NHL in 1990 with those great Penguins teams. It's ridiculous.
26:42
But the streak is made possible because he played alongside or against older legends and newer stars whose careers have spanned from the 1980s to today. Jaromir Jagr retired at the age of 45 in 2017-ish, I want to say.
26:54
I just pulled up a picture of the guy. He doesn't look a day over 38. And then Jack Olquire. Did, did we say something wrong here?
26:59
He said, "Gill and Kelly, I hate to break you the news that hockey has only three periods, unless you guys discovered a different setup for Stanley Cup Finals." What, what is he referring to?
27:06
Did, did I say a quarter or something? You might've said... [laughs] What'd you say, a quarter? Did they change it while I was- Stanley and check it. Did we say quarter? [laughs] As we were... Did, did Kelly say quarter?
27:14
Somebody? Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he joins us now courtesy of the Progressive guest line.
27:17
He is the co-host of Prop Points, which follows us each and every day Monday through Friday, which he does alongside, uh, Jeff Erickson, of course. It's Nick Whelan, everybody.
27:26
At Twitter, uh, we'll just substitute the, uh, L with the number one. Still workshopping. How you doing, Nick? Doing well, guys.
27:34
Uh, you know, these last two days without basketball I've had to, I've had to get out some baseball bets on our show. Uh, getting into some, some uncomfortable territory there.
27:42
I, I did not watch any hockey last night, but thank goodness our, our national nightmare is over. Basketball is back. Finals start tonight. I'm fired up. All right.
27:51
The total 218 and a half in game one between the Knicks and the Spurs. What are you doing with that? So I, I'm looking at the under to begin this series, guys.
28:00
And I know two of the three meetings in the, the regular season and the NBA Cup, the NBA World Cup, as some are calling it- [laughs]... uh, ended up sailing over this number.
28:09
But I, I do think for the Knicks specifically, this is a huge step up in class in terms of the caliber of defense that they'll be facing. Obviously, the Knicks have been on this incredible run.
28:19
They're putting up historic offensive numbers. And you know, I found myself wondering, can that continue series to series? And it continued against the, the Sixers in round two.
28:27
It certainly continued against the Cavs for the most part in the East Finals.
28:30
But you know, the Sixers and the Cavs were two teams that after the All-Star break were, I think, 15th and 18th respectively in defensive rating. Mm-hmm. The Spurs are just a completely different ball game.
28:40
The amount of bodies that they could throw at Jalen Brunson specifically. I mean, they have five or six guys who I think profile as really, really good match-ups for him. So I think we see maybe a slower paced game.
28:50
I think we see kind of a feel-out spot for both teams. And I would not be surprised, uh, i- if both sides, especially the New York Knicks, given the caliber of defense they're facing, do struggle a bit offensively.
29:00
So, uh, lean toward the under two- 218 and a half, excuse me, for game one. All right. Yeah, just, uh, just to add on to, to Nick's points there.
29:07
Really where Knicks have been getting it done t- uh, too, throughout the playoffs at, at the rim and in transition. And, uh, breaking news. Yes.
29:14
San Antonio Spurs, good rim protector and the second-best transition defense in the NBA, uh, over the course of the season. Brought this up to you off air, Gill. Uh, it was from Bet Labs.
29:23
Last four, uh, NBA Finals, 18 and 5 the unders have been hidden. Last four... Oh, all games in total. Yeah, yeah. 23 games, 18 and 5 to the under. And 5. Uh, you're not touching the, the spread.
29:36
You're not touching the side here, four and a half. No, no. And one more thing to add to Kelly's point, by the way.
29:42
The Knicks are taking the second-most field goals around the rim within five feet of any team in the playoffs. They're shooting 66% on those looks.
29:49
Uh, meanwhile, the Spurs are allowing an NBA best by far 52% field goal percentage to opponents within five feet. So something has to give there on the defensive end.
29:59
Uh, as far as the spread goes, no, not really touching it. I'm sure you guys have seen that, that trend going around where it's, what, like 63, three and three ATS as far as teams that win a game in the finals.
30:09
So [laughs] it almost feels like just, just kind of a pick a winner situation. I, I do lean toward San Antonio at home, but it, it's been pretty tough for me to just cast the Knicks aside.
30:18
You know, if you had asked me- Mm-hmm I would have said, you know, whoever wins the West Finals, you know, this is just kind of a coronation.
30:24
They'll walk their way, uh, to the NBA Finals, whether it's Cleveland or Detroit or New York or Philly, whoever it may be. But, uh, the Knicks have earned my respect, no question about it.
30:33
I think they'll make this very difficult on San Antonio.
30:35
But I, I do wonder, you know, much like we saw with the long break heading into game one of the East Finals, the Knicks were very, very lucky to escape that game with a win.
30:43
An all-time comeback over the final seven minutes. They did come out, I think they were 2 of 19 from three in the first half.
30:48
So, you know, it's a rest advantage for the Knicks, but you do wonder at some point, like is, is too much rest a bad thing? Yeah. Where that, that E turns to a U and you got some rest. That's how it works.
30:58
Let's talk some props tonight. Let's start with Karl-Anthony Towns. How are you playing him? Mm-hmm. So I'm looking at the under PRA for, for Karl-Anthony Towns.
31:08
This was 34 and a half earlier in the week, now it's down to 33 and a half, even some 32 and a halves out there at, at some books.
31:15
But, you know, KAT really didn't come close to this number in any of the three match-ups against the Spurs in the regular season or in the NBA Cup. He's averaging under this number for the post season.
31:25
Uh, like I said, just a, a much tougher defensive match-up, not only for Brunson, but for this entire Knicks team. Now, KAT has obviously upped his assist rate, his overall assist numbers in the playoffs.
31:35
We'll see if that continues. The rebounds have been pretty bankable. The scoring has been fine.
31:39
But, uh, again, I don't know if we can just assume that Karl-Anthony Towns is going to continue to operate as the distributor that he was earlier in the post season. You always worry about foul trouble with KAT as well.
31:50
Even if he's not the primary match-up on Victor Wembanyama, there are going to be situations where he's challenging him at the rim. He's always good for one or two offensive fouls at the worst possible time.
31:58
So, uh, I'm, I'm happy to fade KAT to begin the series. If he has a huge game one, I'll live with that. Under 33 and a half PRA, points, rebounds, assists for Karl-Anthony Towns. All right. Josh Hart.
32:08
You made a bet on Josh Hart on Sunday. It has moved. Mm-hmm. Explain. Yeah, I, I played the over one and a half threes. It was -125 at FanDuel at the time when I was on with Scott Seidenberg on, on Sunday night.
32:23
Uh, that, that number has since moved. I think it was like -158 now at DraftKings, like -184 at FanDuel. The, the default number is basically two and a half, uh, which you're getting at, at reasonable plus money.
32:34
And I, I think people are starting to realize that there's a pretty good chance the Spurs are just going to leave Josh Hart open, as we saw at times, uh, to begin that Cavaliers series as well.
32:43
It's just kind of a matter of where is his confidence level? Is he going to be willing to fire away eight, nine, 10 times if they're leaving him wide open? I think he will. I, I think he will.
32:52
I think that has to be a part of the offensive attack for the Knicks. If they're giving him those looks, he at least has to take them.
32:57
He hasn't shot it that well in the playoffs, especially compared to the regular season. But, you know, I think it was game two or game three against Cleveland, he had 11 attempts.
33:05
Uh, I was on his over threes in that game, and I believe he started oh for five, but just kept firing away, and eventually ended up hitting the over early in the third quarter.
33:13
So, uh, you know, good to lock this one in at one and a half. I don't mind going up to the two and a half, because again, I think the volume has to be there for Hart if that's the way the Spurs are gonna play him.
33:22
All right. And then lastly, Dylan Harper's assist total is set at two and a half. Which way are you going with that? Mm-hmm. Yeah, this is one where, you know, I would encourage you to shop around.
33:33
Uh, I found this as as good as -105 yesterday. I believe it was BetMGM. There were some numbers closer to like -125, -130 at some other books.
33:42
You know, Harper is not putting up huge assist numbers in the playoffs, but he has multiple assists now in nine consecutive games.
33:49
I, I think this is a spot, even with De'Aaron Fox back, where he's still playing 25 to 29 minutes off the bench.
33:55
He, he looked a lot better to me in game six and seven of the Western Conference Finals than he did when he initially came back. So I continue to be really impressed with Dylan Harper.
34:03
I think he continues to play with confidence to begin game one. Nick, appreciate it. Enjoy the game. Basketball is back, and we'll, uh, we'll all watch you on Prop Points today. Appreciate it. All right.
34:12
Appreciate it, guys. Prop Points, 1:00 PM Pacific, 10:00 AM Eastern. Do I have that correct? Mm-hmm. I believe I do. All right, coming back.
34:20
[upbeat rock music] [cash register rings] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:35
Back on The Numbers Game live from Circle Resort Casino, Downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Fidlin in the hizzy. Ed Layne on Twitter, Fast Layne Ed Layne, said, "There's tennis and then there's tennis on crack.
34:46
Roll on Garros. Tennis on crack," he says. No doubt. And Jack O'Laquire says that I said it twice during the recap. Apparently in my haste to go through the goals- Well, we didn't say quarter. No, no one said quarter.
34:59
You said fourth period apparently. But apparently I said fourth- Yeah... and I said it twice apparently. And I didn't do a good job 'cause I didn't hear it.
35:06
[sighs] Listen, if, if, if I'm doing something quick and then that comes out of my mouth and you're waiting around for, for an error like that, I guess there it is.
35:12
And, and the, the, trace the demise of Gil Alexander to this moment. [laughs] Remember that, remember that morning you said fourth period twice? [laughs] This is, uh- All right...
35:20
this is not gonna help anybody out there watching, but, uh- Oh, no... this is, no, no, no, no, no- No... this is a good thing. Yeah.
35:25
The World Cup, how much do, how much more the world cares about it than the U- United States? That would be the, the Brazilian team playing getting baptized apparently before leaving. Oh, man.
35:36
Yeah, I would say that most, most every other country cares more about it than we do. Yeah. But, but if there's money to be made betting it- That's right... here we are. Um, okay.
35:46
So you know how we have the, uh, bet on the, uh, Chicago Cubs most wins month of June, how we do all the monthly, uh, markets? Mm-hmm.
35:53
By the way, Cubs start the month with a one run loss to the Athletics, two to one, had runners on first and second in the ninth, nobody out, and they couldn't get anybody home. Mm. So there's other markets.
36:04
Danny Higgins, shout out for, uh, scouring. Mm-hmm. There's the race... So there's a few. There's the race to 10 wins. Love this one. There's the race to 10 wins. There is the last undefeated,
36:17
which DraftKings has to work on their wording with that one. Because they put last team to lose Hey, hey, hey, I had to send you a text while I was in the car yesterday before you spiraled out of control.
36:27
I'm like, last team to lose? [laughs] You mean on June 30th, the last team to lose? They mean last undefeated. Uh, and then what's the third one? Oh, yes, uh, division, by division.
36:37
So basically the whole month, but instead of all 30 teams, just betting it by division against four other teams. Um, okay. So let's start with the race to 10 wins. That's the, uh, that's the cleanest one.
36:48
Right now, um, after two days in the month of June, we have seven 2-0 teams, um, that lead the fray for the race to 10 wins. Seven 2-0 teams. These are the only two, these are the only teams with two wins so far.
37:04
Some teams haven't even played two games. And by the way, I just, I transposed it from my normal standing, so you see run differential and one run outcomes as well. The Brewers are the bet here to me because
37:17
they got two more against the Giants, who they feasted on in games one and two, as you can tell by the run differential. Then it's three at Coors, and then it's three in Sactown, the Bay Area and back down. Hell yeah.
37:28
I mean, what are we doing? It's gotta be the Brewers, right? What's the Brewers' price on the race to 10 wins? I'm also liking the other teams, 2-0. Tigers, Marlins- Well-... Rockies, Twins...
37:38
well, let, well, let's just do it this way. Tigers and Rockies are... Let's go back to that graphic if we could, guys. Tigers and, Tigers and Rockies are dogs today. This is the race to 10 wins.
37:48
Uh, Marlins are kind of coin flippy. Mariners, Twins, Rangers I believe are favorites today. I just think the Brew... You just look at that schedule. You don't even have to, you don't have to look further.
37:58
I mean, you can, just 'cause I did the work and show you the next three series.
38:01
But the race to 10 wins, as long as you're playing the Giants, the Rockies, and the Athletics, apologies to those three clubs, the Brewers are the play. What is, what's the number on this, on the race to 10 wins?
38:10
Uh, 5 to 1 on the Brewers. 5 to 1. They are the short shot. The Mariners, by the way, plus 650. As we see on the screen now, the Dodgers 7 to 1, the Twinkies plus 850. Remember I had the, uh- Hmm...
38:23
I considered the Twins at 150 to 1 for the month? Mm-hmm. Yeah. They're off to a 2-0 start. Wish I would've taken a piece of that. We did point out the, the ease of the early schedule for them in the month.
38:33
Brewers 5 to 1 for me, race to 10. I, I don't think you have to overcomplicate it. And, and usually you're like, "Well, shouldn't you go for a long..." 5 to 1 is not negligible. Right.
38:42
You're talking about eight more wins. They could get eight of those... Here's the thing about the n- those eight remaining games that I s- you know, it's not the eight remaining games, but the next eight games.
38:51
In that eight game span that I just showed, which is their first 10 of the, of the month, obviously you might not get it in 10, but just in those remaining eight games to fill out the first 10, is two more Miz games and one more Kyle Harrison game.
39:07
So you got th- three of those eight are your aces as well against the Giants, Rockies, and Athletics. To me, I wouldn't overcomplicate it. Brewers 5 to 1. That's my play.
39:15
Now, MLB last team to lose a game in June, it's also the Brewers to me. Interesting the, interestingly though in this one, the Rangers and Mariners are shorter shots. Hmm. At plus 550, the Brewers are plus 750.
39:31
I, I'd still take the Brewers at plus 750. I real- I, I just don't, I, you know. What were the Rangers and Mariners, who are they playing right now s- series-wise? Rangers and Mariners next games. Um,
39:46
Rangers are one more at St. Louis, three at home versus the Guardians, three at Kansas City. Mariners one versus the Mets, three at Detroit, four at Baltimore. I'm, I'm sorry. And? I, I... Listen, I'll say it again.
39:59
The Brewers have two versus San Francisco, three at Colorado, and three at the Athletics. It's the Brewers race to 10, it's the Brewers last undefeated. Yeah.
40:05
I, I, I guess I would think you mean when you're going from race to 10, and then okay, adjusting odds for last undefeated, right?
40:11
You're taking into account more the series they're involved in right now, and then the next one, right? 'Cause they're just the next games matter now.
40:17
Well, you're also taking into account pitchers even more granularly, right? Yeah. Yeah, right. So- Good call. Good call... yeah. So the, the, the last undefeated is obviously the most volatile. All it takes is one loss.
40:27
Right. Right? You could lose that easily even if you're... I'm, I'm, I would bet the Brewers plus 750 knowing that, hey, look, all that takes is one loss, that, you know, you're just doing your best there.
40:36
The race to 10, though, that I'll take that schedule- Mm-hmm... any day at plus f- what was it? Plus 550, was it? Plus 500. 5 to 1. 5 to 1. Okay.
40:46
Now, division by division, by the way, here's the race to 10 aga- the odds again. You see the Brewers are 5 to 1, but in the, uh, last undefeated, they're plus 750. I'll take the Brewers in both.
40:57
I don't, this- Did you see that-... this just in. The Giants are terrible. Did I see what? Um, that tweet I sent you this morning about Miz and, uh, Harrison? Yeah. Uh. Oh, yeah.
41:09
The only two pitchers with a sub two ERA this, i- in June, in the month of June- And, and 11 plus, uh, K's per nine... and 11 plus K's per nine since? Uh, s- no, none. Since ever.
41:26
Oh, I thought it was the early 1900s date. Okay. Ever. Am I screwing this up? No. No other MLB team- Jacob Mierkowski and Kyle Harrison, who crushed the Giants.
41:35
And again, the just sort of, you just- Well, we have the since ERA became official in both leagues. Okay. Thank you very much. Kyle Harrison, who crushed the Giants yesterday.
41:43
Y- again, you just have to understand, Kyle Harrison pitched for the Giants for a few years, and it was always this, "Okay, any day now. Any day now." And after a while you're just like, "He's terrible." Right?
41:54
These, we as, as fans, as bettors, as pundits, as announcers or whatever, who's, who has ever in the baseball sphere, we have no patience, right? Right.
42:05
So a lot of these players, particularly in baseball, it just takes them a while. Takes a while, yeah. And in the case of Kyle Harrison, not to say there aren't some underlying stats.
42:13
I don't know how much of it's sustainable with him. A lot of it is, but, but some of it's not. He's good. He's not this good. Those lines for both those guys, so Harrison, 1.57 ERA, 11.46 K's per nine. Yeah.
42:26
Miz, 1.65 ERA 13.69 Ks per nine. Yeah. That's crazy. Yeah, we went through this when we did the, uh, when we did the blind resume- Mm-hmm... last week. Although Kyle Harrison didn't show up in the blind resume. Mm-hmm.
42:41
But, um... Well, 'cause what, we took the top six guys on the odds board, right? Right. The idiot, he wasn't even on the top six in the odds- That's right... 'cause that's how ridiculous of a race it is.
42:50
But, but- Meanwhile, Danny's still eating something back there... Harrison- It's like his third cheese stick I'm looking at. Okay, my turn now. [laughs] Harrison, 32.2% K rate when we did the blind resume
43:01
couple starts ago. And then Mizejewski was over 40% K rate. That's crazy. It's just, just insane. Now, again, Mizejewski's strand rate is probably unsustainable, but you know. Let's go Brewers. Division by division.
43:17
You ready for it real quick? Here are my plays division by division. This is for the month now. So remember, the Cubbies were my overall at 12 to 1. But division by division. AL Central, I talked about the Twins.
43:29
Twins' schedule, they're already 2 and 0. I like them at two to one odds, plus 200. They're already the co-short shot with the Tigers of the AL Central for most wins in June by division here in the AL Central.
43:40
The Twins are my play in the AL Central. The Yankees at plus 180. Again, the short shot are my play in the AL East.
43:45
I went all over this when I went through, you know, some of the teams that I considered, almost played, but didn't. Mm-hmm. AL West, actually my play is a little longer shot here. The Astros at six to one.
43:59
That schedule is crazy easy. Oh, wow. Okay. It's gonna require the Astros to actually, you know, play good baseball. They're 0 and 1 to start the month. No disaster there.
44:08
Six to one on the Astros is actually my play there. National League, most wins in June by division. Um, Cubs, as I mentioned, plus 250 in the Central specifically. 12 to 1 overall.
44:21
Over 30 Major League Ba- over 29 other Major League Baseball teams, but plus 250 in the NL Central. Now, you haven't had these available to bet, like the full monthly ones. No. But have- Yeah...
44:30
I always find this process interesting when I'm looking at, like, different golf markets. Have you looked at these yet? 'Cause we've only done them, what, this year? I think this year we've done them a couple months.
44:39
Have you looked at any of the divisions and been like, "Man, I'd much rather bet them here-" What do you mean? "... than, like, the full month"? No. Okay. NL East, my pick is the Braves at plus 255.
44:49
I actually don't re- I do understand the Phillies have, like, a really easy schedule, but the Braves is almost just as easy. Um, actually I like the Braves at plus 255 in the NL East.
44:59
And then the NL West, Diamondbacks plus 260, as I mentioned as one of my considerations- Mm-hmm... before the month started. Dig it.
45:06
For what it's worth, all these sub-markets, shout out to, uh, DraftKings and other shops that have those. Coming back on the Numbers Game. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
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