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Jun 3, 2026
A Numbers Game | June 3, 2026 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | June 3, 2026 | Hour 2
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45:13
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com. Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, Sirius XM Channel 158. Gil Alexander. Kelly Midland. Heyo.
0:19
Did I say fourth period that last segment, or did I get- did I steer clear? Uh, it was the bottom of the ninth quarter. I think I said the bottom of the... Yeah. [laughs] And then in the bottom of the 10th.
0:30
Uh, on the, uh, show still to come, Will Hill will join us, uh, to discuss all his bets, NBA finals and beyond. NBA finals tipping off tonight. Let's go. Toddy Wishnev on the WNBA a little later on the show as well.
0:44
Um, we kinda raced through all those, but, um, I'd like to, uh, in the recap, we should probably go through those again. I haven't bet any of those, but those would be my recommendations.
0:53
Or we can, or we can track back on those. Mm-hmm. By the way, one note about the, uh, the Stanley Cup Final, too. If you're into, uh, some trends after that, uh, win by Vegas last night, historic.
1:06
Entering last night, road teams were 0 and 55 when down multiple goals at any point in a Stanley Cup Final game one. Make it 1 and 55 after the Knights were down two to nothing yesterday. Golden Knights.
1:20
And then teams that win game one of a best of seven Stanley Cup Final series go on to win that series 75.6% of the time. 65 and 21. Doesn't that feel- That feels like a crazy stat to me. Right?
1:33
Hockey's random, but apparently not in the Stanley Cup Final when you win game one. Let's talk some more baseball. Paul Sporer joins us now from an undisclosed location, uh, somewhere in Austin, Texas.
1:44
We don't know exactly where, but he of course writes at FanGraphs. He is the co-host of the Sleeper and the Bust podcast, and, which I don't always, uh, highlight, content designer for Out of the Park Baseball.
1:54
You can follow him on Twitter @Sporer. He joins us now, S-P-O-R-E-or, uh, E-R. E-or, I said. [laughs] How you doing, Paulie? I'm doing very well. How you guys doing?
2:03
Could you get- could we get the update on, on what you do once again? Uh, when you say content designer- Yeah... for Out of the Park Baseball, I'm always, I always trip out on this. Yeah.
2:11
So Out of the Park Baseball is a baseball simulator in which you can play different modes of, and there's one mode called Perfect Team where you play against other people.
2:18
We, we collect virtual cards of players throughout all of history, basically from the beginning of baseball to now. And I create all those cards that people collect.
2:28
So I'm trying to figure out, um, when to bring out all the players across baseball history, how they fit in the various tiers that we have, and how they will play in the various games that we have.
2:39
Tournaments, league, all sorts of different stuff. So it's called Perfect Team for Out of the Park Baseball. It's a ton of fun, and I've learned so much more about baseball history with this job than I could even fathom.
2:50
I watch Ken Burns' Baseball every year just as a, a kind of a winter ritual, and every year I know more and more of the names that they're talking about, and it just, it really tickles me to no end.
3:00
In the first, second, third innings, you know, when they're talking 1800s, early 1900s, I'm like, "Oh, I know that guy.
3:05
I know that guy," [laughs] "because I deep dove them making virtual cards for them on Out of the Park Baseball."
3:10
I love that also because as sort of an old-schooler, like one of the, one of the get me, get off my lawn things, for anything, not just sports, is that, uh, well, you hear Michael Wilbon scream about this all the time, where he's like, "This, it existed before you were born," right?
3:24
That kind of thing. [laughs] We have somebody here on staff- Right... he doesn't care about movies before he was born. That's right. Right?
3:28
So I love that you're like, "No, I, there is no limit to the amount of baseball history I wanna soak in," and you even do it vocationally. Truthfully. Yeah. Francis Longleg Charity. I was gonna keep going, but I, I c-
3:41
e- exactly. Uh, finding the crazy nicknames. Like, I can do an hour with you guys talking about this. I don't wanna derail us. I love it. I love it. But it is so fun.
3:48
And the, the game of baseball, the history is so unbelievably rich, and it is also one of those things that, you know, that, the, the classic phrase of like how history repeats itself.
3:57
Like, these player types, obviously the game has evolved, it's changed greatly, but you can find similar player types that have existed throughout the entire game. The slappy speedster, the power guy.
4:07
And even when the power meant, you know, 11 home runs- Mm-hmm... was leading the league, but they were still the power guys. So I find baseball history endlessly fascinating.
4:15
I've bought so many books just to read more about these guys since I've gotten, gotten this job four years ago. Love it. And Sleeper and the Bust comes out how many times a week? Thrice.
4:24
Well, uh, thrice that I'm on, and then fourth, a, a fourth on Sundays often with, uh, Jason Collett and Justin Mason. Wow. The man said thrice, Kelly. Yeah, that was pretty bad-ass. What, we just, we just go home now.
4:34
You should kick me off for that. That was douchey. Nah, it's fantastic. Um, let me just ask you, we had Mark Borchardt on, base winner, on the show yesterday. Mm-hmm.
4:41
And he told us he, he likes, for his numbers, he likes in all three American League divisions, he says there's still value on the Yankees even north of $2. There's, he says there's value on the Guardians north of $2,
4:53
and there's value on the Mariners to win the West. Do you agree with all three of those? Yeah, I, I think that's fine, 'cause I think they're, they're open enough that you can still get some good value there, right?
5:03
It's like I always have the problem with jumping on a super favorite, right?
5:07
Even if it feels so locked, jumping on any sort of super favorite, whether it's a division or an award in June, that always feels like a, a bad chase for me. But these, these are close, right?
5:17
So you can still get pretty decent numbers. You shop around. I mean, the Yankees aren't even leading the division right now. The other two are, but not by such margins that you can't get down good numbers.
5:26
And I find I can make the case for all three of those teams to be very strong. I like the Yankees and Mariners more, but discount the Guardians at our own peril.
5:34
You know, we've been doing it for years, and they just keep punching tickets to the playoffs every year despite doing things that, you know, you would think would keep them kind of more in the middle.
5:42
But no, they just, they keep plugging away, and obviously my beloved Tigers aren't gonna do a damn thing about stopping them from the Central. We know that.
5:49
Well, b- brief side note on that, 'cause I've been, I've been workshopping the Giants' worst record for the entire season- Mm-hmm... at 14 to 1.
5:56
Haven't pulled the [laughs] haven't pulled the trigger on it, but, like, I'm like, "Ah, someone talk me out of this." Uh, and my, my whole Giants thing is, oh, they're gonna get rid of everybody, before the draft even.
6:05
Sure. Forget about the deadline. Obviously, there's the Tarik Skubal matter with your Tigers. Are your Tigers gonna be worse than the Giants when all is said and done? I don't think so. I don't either.
6:15
Because let, let, let's, let's be rosy for a moment, 'cause it has been such a rotten season.
6:21
Let's say this nano-needle situation, this procedure that Skubal got works well, he's back soon, he's able to put down enough work that everyone's ready to go for the big trade deadline.
6:30
They're gonna get a haul that's probably gonna help them right away, that might even make their team, bottom line, better, especially if they get multiple players who are playing in the majors, right?
6:39
I don't think this is gonna be a pack of 18-year-olds that are gonna be coming. The Tigers aren't trying to strip down.
6:44
They're moving Skubal because they're, they were never gonna sign him, uh, which is, uh, its own problem. But, you know, that's the reason to trade him, not to rebuild.
6:51
Like, you're talking about the Giants finally burning it to the ground- Yep... which we've been talking about for, like, a decade.
6:56
The aforementioned Justin Mason, my podcast cohost, is a huge Giants fan, and he's hated what y'all have done for the last several years, 'cause it's one foot in, one foot out. That's right.
7:04
And it's really hard to be successful there, especially against the Dodgers. If you're doing a one foot in, one foot out in, in either Central these last few years, I get it. We just talked about the Guardians.
7:14
They kind of always seem to be like that. They got a pack of youngsters that are coming up, and they got a few veterans. So they're competing for playoff spots, but they're still building. You can't do that in the West.
7:23
Uh, you just simply cannot do that with the Dodgers and the Padres as your biggest foes, and the Giants have refused to tear down. So yeah, between the two, I'm not just being a homer here.
7:32
I would go out on the Giants for the worst record 10 times over I would go for the Tigers even once. I, I just think they're gonna be... Tigers are gonna be regular bad, and I think the Giants are bad bad. I love it.
7:43
It, it... Because I agree with your podcast cohost. I, I... It's, it's time to just completely tear it down. And Buster Posey, uh, he deserves some incoming on this. But you're b- finishing the thought though on this.
7:53
Your instinct is that either the Rockies or Angels or someone else is going to be even worse than the Giants in the end? That's my concern is the, always the Rockies. Yeah. Just always, right?
8:03
Jeff Erickson of, of Rotoworld calls them the Paste Eaters for a reason. That name has stuck in the fantasy community. Now- What does he call them? Even to his, uh, the Paste Eaters.
8:11
You know, they're sitting in the corner- Oh. [laughs]... eating paste. That's right. [laughs] And he's been correct. But even he admits that Paul DePodesta being there is an elevation unto its...
8:20
Like, just, they're al- they're at a baseline that they've never been at. They have a guy who knows what the hell is going on there. So they are better than they've ever been.
8:27
I don't know that, uh, from a front office standpoint, I don't know that that's a reason to really get too hyped on them. I still think the Rockies are in the mix there.
8:34
I think it's between those two teams though, because they con- constantly get pummeled by the other teams in the West.
8:39
And even though the schedules aren't as unbalanced as they used to be, you still play more in your division, and I just don't think either of those teams have enough pitching, uh, to really...
8:47
And of course, the Rockies have to contend with their home park, which at least they're gonna start playing into. You can't turn everything around in one year, but I like a lot of what DePodesta's done. I, [laughs]
8:55
I'm fearful that if Buster doesn't tear it down, that the Rockies could pass y'all here in the next couple years. Uh, best record, Dodgers are minus 160, Braves are plus 265, Yankees are plus 650.
9:07
Brewers are eight to one. Mm-hmm. Remember, the Brewers ended up with the best record last year. Tell me why I shouldn't bet them again. I, I, I can't. I really can't give you a good reason for that, you know?
9:17
I just talked about the Guardians, what they do in the Central.
9:19
The Brewers are a better version of that in the NL Central, where they are, you know, kind of always bringing up the backfill but also continuing to compete. Now, we haven't necessarily seen it work in the playoffs.
9:28
I don't know that it can't work in the playoffs. I think there's been some discussion there that they think, you know, they, they play a 162 type version of ball where all the little things add up.
9:37
I think they can still succeed in the playoffs. Winning in the playoffs is just difficult. Look what it took the Dodgers to do for years before they become the powerhouse now.
9:44
Um, so yeah, I think the Brewers are still the, among the class. I mean, I was gonna say the class. Then, you know, I stopped myself short 'cause the Dodgers are still there.
9:51
The only thing that makes them more difficult this year though is how tough that division is. You know, the hat I'm wearing right now, the Cardinals and the Pirates, they're up.
9:59
So you're not getting those easier wins that they got last year. That said, they still have a 638 win percentage, one percentage point, uh, behind the Dodgers. So I think they're every bit as good there.
10:09
Uh, o- of the candidates that you listed, I would still go for the Brewers over the Dodgers and the Yankees there for the best win record, just because of the number you're getting plus the team that you have behind you.
10:19
For make miss playoffs people, give you right now- Mm-hmm... June 2nd, Paul Sporer's six AL playoff teams, six NL playoff teams. All right. AL, Rays, Guards, M's.
10:32
I'm gonna take all three division winners that they're gonna hold. Yankees. God, this gets so hard after that. Do- Do they, do they get six teams? Yes, you do. Can they get two extra NL teams in? [laughs] Golly. Okay.
10:46
[laughs] Texas, I think because they're an older team- I do too... they're gonna push a bit. Yeah.
10:52
So I think that they're gonna, you know, they're gonna try to stabilize their team at the deadline and really push the chips in. So I'll go with Texas.
10:58
And then for the last one, it's gonna be a collection of the garbage team. No, I'm kidding. Um- [laughs] You know what? I'll go with the upstart White Sox. I think of- Okay...
11:04
it's a year ahead of schedule for them, but I think they, they can do it. They have enough offensive juice. I don't quite believe in the pitching.
11:11
I'm really sketchy on that sixth one there, but I love so much of what they're doing. Hopefully, the Mirakami injury isn't too bad. But check out what Sean Burke and Davis Martin are doing.
11:19
They have two pretty solid pitchers right now. You need more than two, of course, though. So I'm a little bit skeptical on that one. For the NL, a lot easier. Braves, Brewers, Dodgers at the top.
11:29
Padres, Phillies, and I had Pirates at the beginning of the season, so I'm sticking with that because I've, I've been riding with them from the jump. So that one's a little bit easier.
11:36
I'm just taking the top two teams from each division right now. Paul, always a pleasure. Thank you so much. Thank you. Paul Sporer, everybody. Have a good one, y'all. Solid segment. S- Mm-hmm... @Sporer, S-P-O-R-E-R.
11:47
Coming back with Will Hill and more on the Numbers Game right here at VSiN. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners, but let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home.
11:58
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12:06
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12:21
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12:36
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13:04
That's when the World Cup starts, eight days from now. Do not wait. Head to splashsports.com/vsin and use code VSin. Must be 21 and over. Available in select states only. Awesome contest.
13:14
Wish I, I kind of wish I could play in it. Kinda. Totally. We- I'm down for any World Cup contest here.
13:20
I- if, A, if anybody out there wants my advice on picks, I can promise you one thing, they will likely be contrarian. [laughs] 'Cause I don't really know anything. That's awesome. That's awesome.
13:31
We get Tweetsby the book, Bentley, @TheBentley. He points out a good, "Probably doesn't change the handicap, but the Brewers are playing the A's in Vegas next week." Yes, not in Sac Town. You are correct. Really?
13:40
In Vegas. Where are they going, Aviators Stadium? You have to, you have to understand, this is a special senile edition of a numbers game this morning.
13:46
[laughs] I fi- I finally have wi- it's finally too much overnight tennis watching in Paris. It's finally caught up to us. It's finally caught up to you. Yeah, that makes sense. And I'm using that as an excuse.
13:54
You know what? You, you, uh, you would think Gil brings this up more off air. He never complains about that. I would be complaining- No... about it all the time. I... Sleep-deprived. Are you kidding me?
14:04
I'll be complaining tomorrow morning about how late the NBA finals game one went. Not a complainer. Not on those kinds of things. Patrick Kelly, uh, "Last team to lose.
14:12
What do you think you'd get from DraftKings that lists the World Cup group wagers A, B, C, D, E, F in a severely tossed spelling salad?"
14:19
Yeah, d- so there's a, the, you do, well, some of the wording, 'cause I just w- I was just joking about that, but some of the wording on some of these markets, right? So the MLB last team to lose in June. All right.
14:32
You know what I love? Last team to lose. Uh, uh, the last team to lose on June 30th? No, you mean last undefeated. So say last undefeated. Then the other one was- Yeah, yeah...
14:39
the other one was, we keep showing it when we show an NBA graphic. Yeah. We show exact score. Mm-hmm. No. Uh, uh, no, we show a correct score. Correct score. No, it's exact result of the series, 4-2, 4-3, 4-1.
14:53
What do you mean correct score? We are lo- Go ask DraftKings... we are l- yeah, it's, it, it's, that one I, I agree with has become interesting because I see, I, feels like about 50/50 that I see it those two ways.
15:04
Correct score's so stupid. I would be like, oh, 106 to 98 is correct score. Hon- honestly, I ag- I agree with you more on that one than the, the last, last to lose. Yeah, no, that last one was funny. That wa- Yeah...
15:13
th- th- that one's, the, what's, what's so great, this is the, I love the Gil, the- [laughs]... the b- behind the scenes of Gil Alexander's mind. Because the, it, the way where Gil has turned these words, it makes sense.
15:25
Like, it ma- your, you- So-... the way you're reading into it- La-... completely makes sense, but I'm like, who would ever think that's the bet is? In June 30th. That's what I mean.
15:32
I was like, wow, who, who got together at DraftKings offices and came up with last to lose in the month? So I got a handicap June 30th time last team to lose. [laughs] I was dying laughing in the car.
15:42
I'm like, I gotta text him immediately before his mind explodes. Yeah. No emu, Doug. Too much French Open in the middle of the night.
15:48
If, if you do not require a helmet during the game, must be one of those foreign sports. Us 'mericans like our contact and non-contact sports. See NBA for reference.
15:56
Oh, he's talking about how do, does the United States care the least about the World Cup? Mm-hmm. Uh, Buddhist man, of course, on the job.
16:03
[laughs] When I said you could trace the demise of Gil Alexander to this moment, he's already got a whole Prevagen ad for me with me post, with me, uh, in there.
16:12
Uh, this is, uh, Xavier82, "Julian Champagnie had a 36-point game versus the Next, versus the, uh, Knicks this season, and the Sixers let him go for a guy to compete in the dunk competition?
16:23
I can hear Michael Lombardi grumbling already," he says. That was, uh, yeah. Of all the, there's been a lot of dunking on the 76ers and Daryl Morey, but that was, uh, may- that's maybe the funniest one.
16:34
[laughs] You remember Mac McClung going off in those dunk contests? Mac McClung, yes. They had to, they had to find him a roster spot. War- Julian Champagnie was the re- result of that.
16:42
Max McClung, Warriors great, as we like to call him. Legend. What an athlete. Two, two dunk contests, right? He won two, right? I believe, yeah.
16:50
Buddhist man c- continues and says, "June 3rd, 2026, a day that will live in infamy." [laughs] Uh, Marco Romanel, "Obviously the person you referenced who likes the Yankees at minus 220 knows his stuff.
17:03
However, I think the O's and Blue Jays are in play to win the AL East. Great value on them. I'm no doctor, shocking I know, but I don't see how Judge doesn't miss some time." Oh, by the way, he writes five paragraphs.
17:13
I can't read the whole thing. But the, the, he's, he's justifying the O's and the Blue Jays. He's got some reasons for it. Thank you, Marco Romanel. I, listen, I appreciate that.
17:22
Um, once again, French Open, uh, I'm down a set here. Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-4 in the first set against Flavio Cobolli. Um, so that's not a great start. Uh, they're on to the second set here to begin.
17:35
Uh, I put the, I put the match here on the TV next to us so that Kelly would fall asleep looking into Cobolli's eyes. Oh, that's my guy with the deep blue eyes? Yeah. Yeah.
17:44
I thought you were gonna say something about my excellent, perfect spelling of Auger-Aliassime always. You really want me to compliment you. Well done again, Kelly. Well done. Eh, z- y- you, I was doubted.
17:54
[laughs] I was doubted. And for those who missed it, world number one Aryna Sabalenka up a set and 5-3 against Diana Shnaider, proceeds to lose the next 10 games.
18:07
Loses that set 7-5, bageld in the second set, I mean, the third set, or the fourth period as we're calling it this morning. [laughs] Uh, when, when are people gonna start- And she's gone...
18:18
when are people gonna start showing up for the French Open? Like, I feel like every one of these matches I see a lot, there's, there's too many empty seats. I don't wanna say a lot, but there's too many
18:27
Well, 'cause you gotta dress up. That's probably what it is Dude, the eyes That's why you wouldn't go. You don't wanna dress up The eyes, man. The eyes. You're right, I just saw a close-up. Let's go country clubbing.
18:36
[air horn] [upbeat music] Aw, yeah. Boom, boom, boom, boom. Danny in 50 years. Ben Wilson finally show up the other night? No? I never saw him. Oh. Allegedly he did- Allegedly... but I never saw him. Okay.
18:52
Uh, by the way, last thing about tennis again, uh, hit on, uh, Maya Walinsk- Walinska this morning. Have Kobeli in this match. We have a women's semi now that is Diana Schneider versus Maya [laughs] Walinska.
19:07
It is the m- this, this French Open, men's and women's, the most chaotic tournament I've ever seen. Schneider minus 170, Walinska plus 150 opening odds I'm seeing. You know who I'll be on.
19:21
How about it's a memorial tournament where, uh, Jack Nicklaus waits- Dude, freaking do it... Jack Nicklaus waits on the green, correct me if I'm wrong- Mm-hmm... on the final day. Hangs out, yeah. Hangs out there- I-...
19:30
and, and, and shakes your hand on your way off the course. It's a great question slash statement, Gil, 'cause yes, he'll be there on the final day. I, I- Maybe it's every day...
19:38
I assume he hangs out more than that, but I don't really know. You're gonna hear a lot about milkshakes being delicious this week over there. Mm.
19:44
It's, like, the only other tournament besides the Masters where people talk about the food, you know? Like, the prices at the Masters. A great tournament, though. This is one of my favorites every year.
19:52
It is a absolute grind. Every, every club in the bag will be tested. You are not gonna see crazy low scores. This is a signature event, 72 in the field.
20:03
They do have a cut, top 50 and tie, so keep in mind if you are betting into those markets. A big boy golf course, par 72, 7,500 yards, over that, 32 and a half yards wide on the fairways.
20:16
You do not want to miss the fairways 'cause you are dealing with major conditions, uh, with the rough. Four inches is where it's gonna start off. It is gonna be a brute getting out of there.
20:25
You will have 12 holes where water danger comes into play, and a whole lot of sand traps around the green, 68 bunkers in total, and very small greens. Bent grass, only 5,000 square feet.
20:37
This is a tough task of being accurate. This is something we talked about a little bit last week, actually, being accurate off the tee and then being accurate into small greens.
20:47
Around the green play and scrambling comes in very, very heavily at this tournament. It's actually more important, uh, in recent years here since they did the update at this course five years ago.
20:58
Around the green play more important than what you're doing off of the tee, so if you're doing your own handicapping at home, heavy, heavy approach week. You need to look at around the green and scrambling stats.
21:08
Off the tee is important. This is one of these greens, then, we talk about, Gil, where I'm not looking much at putting this week because there's two, there's kind of two scenarios where you do that.
21:18
The greens are so easy that it levels the field, or the greens are so tough that it kind of levels the field. This is kind of that latter. The greens are so tough, they're so small.
21:27
Uh, you are gonna be kind of level field as far as p- uh, putting goes, so de-emphasizing putting stats this week. As far as where I ended up on, uh, got to score the par fives, too, if you're doing that.
21:38
Four par fives, par 72, they're the only holes on the golf course that play under par.
21:43
Uh, Scottie Scheffler, we brought this up yesterday, I believe I told you this, with at least five starts there is no better golfer at one i- one single golf course than Scottie Scheffler at Muirfield Village.
21:53
So I'm being very light in the outright market this week. Going for the three-peat here. Going for the three-peat. Yeah. Has won the last two, uh, here.
21:59
So I'm going light in the outright market, a lot of other bets in placements and match-ups. I went with Matt Fitzpatrick, who you guys have heard me bet a lot this year.
22:07
Really had no intention of betting him this week, but rated out very highly for me. All those kind of key categories I brought up, uh, he, he was rated out very highly.
22:15
So 26 to 1, I think he's, like, in the low 20s, still like that for an outright bet.
22:19
And then the only other one I bet, I think it was w- it was Wes's first thought on Monday, it was my first thought after the tournament, too.
22:25
Really, Justin Thomas really rounded into form here, uh, playing some quality golf. Lost with a little bit with the putter last week, but it has been better, be- uh, better results here from him s- seemingly every week.
22:37
T13 last week, two other top 20 finishes in the last two tournaments. Those were my only two outright plays. A ton of placement bets, then. Top 10s on Fitz and Thomas to cover those up.
22:48
This is a course Patrick Cantlay has played very well at, multiple wins for him. You're gonna hear him be very popular this week. He's rounding into form as well, uh, alongside of that tournament history.
22:59
Really like Cantlay this week. Bet him top 10 and top 20. Kurt Kitayama, not good results here in the past. Good form, though, recently. Four to one for a top 10. I'll get to my others on the other side.
23:12
Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. More to come from Kelly Vendler, [laughs] who ran into the wall. More golf and Will Hill next on The Numbers Game right here at VSiN.
23:20
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Don't forget about our recent pro early bird special, the Oily Boy.
23:34
Full VSiN Pro access until the Super Bowl, $175. That's it. That's it, $175. Not even two Benjamin.
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Daily best bets, betting splits data, AI-powered prop projections, 24/7 video access, and the NFL betting guide, which comes out at a record early June 22nd.
23:53
Man, 19 days from now we got an NFL betting guide 1.0, as Adam Burke calls it. Vsin.com/subscribe for all of that. We get tweets, beat of the book, always appreciate it.
24:03
Doug Knutson Sports, "Hey Gil, you had a listener today ask was there ever a game everybody was on and that team actually won?" Yes. Game four, Knicks and Cavaliers.
24:13
Knicks won wire to wire, covered by 35 points, and every square inch sharp we heard were on the Knicks. You know what, Doug? That was the one where I hated myself afterwards for not playing.
24:22
And playing and playing again. Rob L, this is a great point from Rob. He says, "As an all-around Survivor enthusiast, Gil, how are you not taking up World Cup Survivor or talking up World Cup Survivor?"
24:35
Kelly, we need an ANG World Cup survivor entry. Will be great content. He's right about that.
24:39
And even though, the reason that we, we, we said that, don't misunderstand please, Rob L, is we can't enter the Splash Sports one by law. Mm-hmm. But I'd love to be in another one. It would be great content.
24:50
Let's, let's work on that. Dell Mind the Gap Radio. Since I've been on, uh, Follow the Money in studio and on tape on Sharp Money, if anyone needs a break, I'll be in town in August. [laughs] There you go.
25:01
Listeners just just learned something. Oh, there you go. He's, he's- Dell, Dell... Dell the Mind the Gap Radio. Ready to go. He, he, you, uh, did he, uh, did he wanna, he wanted to host that Fezzik Greg s- segment.
25:11
That's what it was. Speaking of which, and we will segue into Will Hill with this, but apparently Fezzik did chime in on the, uh, on the Greg Peterson dating stuff.
25:19
And he says, "As Judge Judy always says," and then Fezzik goes capital letters, "YOU PICK THEM." And then he says, "In all seriousness, and not to be Mr.
25:27
Fix It, but why not have a stable, good judge of character friend advise you going forward?" And you know who he suggests? [clears throat] Not you, not me, Kelly. Adam B or Steve M or someone like that.
25:41
So is he referring to Adam Burke or Steve Makinen there? I don't know. Or is he just randomly had an Adam B and a Steve M? I, I don't know. That was my question, too. I can, I, I, I'm assuming- He said don't do-...
25:50
Burke and Makinen, but maybe not... he said, "Don't do anything without getting their advice." I didn't know that Adam Burke and Steve Makinen had this expertise, but there you go.
25:57
I, I don't do anything in my life without getting Steve Makinen's advice first. [laughs] Like, what are the trends?
26:01
What- Steve Fezzik approaching the Greg Peterson dating matter as if it's a pedantic sports betting mathematical question. Yeah, that sounds about right. Will Hill joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
26:11
You can follow him on Twitter at not The Will Hill, two Es on the the. He's the host of the Shoulda Bet More podcast, coming to you three times a week. He comes to us from the state of Connecticut. How you doing, Willie?
26:24
Gilley, what's going on? I think as usual, Fezz has, uh, sold himself short. Why couldn't Fezz just help out Greg? And boy, um, w- imagine the numbers, imagine the ratings that would do. Greg Peterson- Oh, man...
26:34
with Fezz in his ear like the pitching coach coming out to the mound to give him little chats. [laughs] Uh, advising him on his dating life. Man, it's, where do we start? Where do we sign up?
26:42
What's the, uh, Cyrano de Bergerac? Is that who he was talking to the girl and he was getting fed lines in his ear? Yeah. Where, where's this reality show? Why- we gotta stop talking about this on air.
26:51
We could all be making money off this. Absolutely. Absolutely. What are we doing? Greg, let's consider it. Um, Will, let's start with the NBA finals. Game one tonight between the Spurs and the Knicks.
27:02
Spurs favored by four and a half, total 218 and a half. What are we doing with this? Yeah, I can't wait. What a great finals this is. Knicks haven't been here in forever.
27:10
You get Wembanyama, you get the Thunder out of there, people sick of their flopping and the, the foul, you know, the, the, the foul calls and is this a foul, is it not with the SGA. So I, I love this final.
27:19
A lot of juice, a lot of excitement. Uh, I think ultimately, I don't have a great feel for game one. I, I think ultimately Spurs win a long series. I have Spurs in six, plus 550. I think that's a good bet.
27:29
Uh, correct series score, exact score, whatever, uh, whatever the wording is. I, I, I enjoyed your, uh, your bit on that earlier. I totally agree. I just think the Knicks- Thank you...
27:37
their success against the Spurs earlier in the season, I, I think you can't really dismiss it. Those teams, I know Wemby was on a minutes limit, but there's always caveats with these regular season games.
27:46
I think that does translate to some success in this series. I do think they win a couple games. Uh, I just think a couple things. I think the Knicks a little too trendy.
27:53
Reminds me a little bit of Mavs and Celtics a couple years ago where people looked at Luka, the plus price. Hey, I got the best player in the series. And a lot of people picked Dallas, and they got destroyed.
28:03
And you remember these series, Gil, where Cleveland would go into Golden State- Mm-hmm...
28:07
and the West was just so much better than the East, and Cleveland would just get destroyed the first couple games just because there was such a gap between the teams the Cavs a- and LeBron were playing and the teams they were stepping up to.
28:18
Now, this Spurs team is not the Warriors. I'm not saying they are. But those two things are in my head a little bit. Uh, so I, I'm going Spurs in six. I think the Knicks win some games here.
28:28
The stat I keep coming back to, over this 11 game stretch, and it's an impressive 11 game stretch, obviously haven't lost a game since the first night of the NFL draft back in April. Knicks are shooting 43% from three.
28:39
Their opponents are shooting 29% from three. League average is 35%, so you gotta figure the Knicks cool off a little bit, their opponents start to hit some threes, and this Knicks team looks a little different.
28:49
But, uh, I'm not gonna completely dismiss what the Knicks have done. They've been impressive. Uh, they've dismantled these teams.
28:54
Granted, it's the beat up Sixers, it's the tired Cavs, it's the Hawks, and it's amazing to look back and think s- think the Hawks were up 2-1 on this team. So Spurs, Spurs in six is the way I'm going.
29:05
Uh, and the last thing on this, if I was going to look for a long shot, and after Caruso I don't have the appetite to get my heart broken again. [laughs] So sorry.
29:10
If I was going to think outside the box for a long shot MVP, Anunoby probably on a guard, Wemby. Uh, you get that whole angle of Iguodala from years ago, the whole handicap with Caruso.
29:21
And maybe Anunoby hits a bunch of threes, does a good job on Wemby. Brunson's relatively quiet, and then Anunoby around 70 to 1 can steal it.
29:28
That would be the one sleeper, but other than that I'm, uh, I, I'm pretty much staying away. What'd you say about your Caruso, uh, Western Conference MVP finals ticket?
29:35
You're like, add it to the pile of great bets that- Yeah, it's a big-... just didn't, didn't get home. Yeah. Um, let me ask this about- It's frustrating, what are you gonna do? What are you gonna do?
29:44
Uh, I like the thought process. Mm-hmm. There was a path, just didn't work out. And, uh, Thunder had to win to even get in the discussion. About the Spurs-Knicks before we, before we move on to baseball.
29:53
So okay, you have the Spurs in six. Um, there are those that think the Knicks win the series. There are those th- that think, okay, it'll be really close. Spurs could win in seven, Spurs could win in six.
30:03
Let me ask it this way. If the Spurs, if the, if the Knicks- Yeah... pardon me, if the Knicks are to win two games or more, two, three, or four, isn't game one, doesn't game one have to be one of those?
30:17
In other words, if they lose game one tonight- I've heard that, yeah... is there any chance they win two? Um, I mean, there's always a chance, but I get your sentiment. I get your thinking.
30:29
This idea that, hey, this is the chance to steal one if you're the Knicks. The Spurs are off this seven-game war, maybe a little tired, maybe a little mentally tired. This is your chance to steal one.
30:38
If that's your approach to the series, I completely agree. Feels like it's always easy to st- st- easier to steal one in game one on the road than the rest of the series. I mean, look at San Antonio.
30:47
They went in, they took one off OKC right away, and, uh, that obviously was, uh, you know, was big in the end. So I would agree with that line of thinking, yes. Yeah, I...
30:54
and, and to some extent, you know, somebody's gonna listen and say, "Oh, well, can't you say that about every series?" You could. Mm.
30:59
But this one specifically because of this talent gap, because of Wemby, because okay, you're catching the Spurs on the, on the much less rest, right? This just feels like that's more pronounced than anything.
31:10
So the Spurs win this, especially if they win it big. Like, our narrative tomorrow in heading into game two, I don't, I don't wonder what that line will be.
31:18
Like, if the Spurs win this by 15 tonight, I wonder what the game two line adjusts to as well. Yeah. And then, and then will anybody give the Spurs a chance, excuse me, the Knicks a chance at that point?
31:28
Should be interesting. Game one tonight in San Antonio.
31:31
We'll see if we can, uh, if they can match the, uh, 78 to 77 or 80 to 67 scores that we highlighted yesterday in their 1999 series against each other, which is just amazing to look back at. Um, let's go to baseball.
31:45
You have some plays today. Let's start with, uh, the first one, which is a Giants... [laughs] Oh, God, this is a Willie special. The Giants, who I'm, I'm flirting, I'm thinking about betting them for the worst record.
31:56
You have the Giants plus a half run first five today? Yeah, Webb on the mound, and I was f- it's funny, I was thinking about that worst record bet.
32:03
I know our buddy The Bear, Chris Felica, has given that out, has bet that. I don't believe that is in any of the accounts.
32:09
I, I'm gonna have to add that if nothing else for, uh, you know, the, the FOMO, for, for the fear of missing out on that one because that one seems to be very live, and I think they w- have a worse record now than the Rockies, but- What did he get at?
32:19
Good sp- good spot for Webb. Some of the numbers for Webb suggest that, you know what, uh, there's some positive regression coming. Really struggled to, uh, you know, to, to strand base runners.
32:27
I know in the past he struggled on the road, but this year he seems to be correcting that a little bit. You second start back from the injury.
32:33
I don't like backing these start, th- these guys their first start back from the injury, but this is the second one back. I think, you know what, one, one, two, two after five.
32:39
I think this may be a good buy low spot here for, uh, for the Gigantes. What does, uh, what does Chris have? I, first of all, I didn't realize that he had this.
32:45
What is his b- what is his number on the Giants' worst record? That I'm not sure. 30, 40 to 1 at least. Wow, okay. Uh, he, he's been on this for a bit.
32:54
I know he took a shot on a few different teams, but I believe the Giants were one of them, and that's, uh, that's, that's looking like a pretty good shot. I don't know what the, the updated number is, but- 14...
33:01
that's one that, that seems to be live here. 14 to 1. I should totally wait till it goes into single digits, right, before I play it. Um- It's usually what I do. [laughs] Yeah.
33:08
See, see, it sounds like a dumb strategy, but that's, that's how I'm lollygagging with it. Um, okay, how about the Braves and the Blue Jays today? What are you doing with this one?
33:17
Give me the Braves team total over four and a half. I know it's the home team here, so you might not get the ninth at bat. Thought about laying it with the Braves.
33:23
It's a little expensive in the dollar 45, dollar 50 range, but I wanna look to Fade Corbin. Uh, the ERA is respectable, but a lot of the advanced stuff, the hard contact, is not as respectable.
33:35
Figure the Braves, who, uh, who've got some guys back in that line-up there, they can get their five, six-plus runs here against Corbin. So I will go Braves team total over four and a half.
33:44
I wanna bet on that offense against Patrick Corbin. Okay. Uh, Will kind enough to join us for two segments. We will, uh, hang out with him for one more.
33:51
He has one more baseball play, and I will try to, uh, pick his brain about preliminary outlying Will Hill NFL thoughts as we are months away from the NFL season, but on the, uh, heels of the Miles Garrett trade.
34:04
Maybe he's, uh, got the juices flowing on that. That's next. Will Hill right here on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:11
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:34
Back on the Numbers Game live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Boy, this, uh, show's really getting in the way of this tennis match, uh, for me here. And there we go. There we go.
34:44
Oj Aliassime won the, uh, first set, and then, uh, our guy, f- uh, Flavio Cobolli, was down a break in the second set and it's looking bad, 3-1. He breaks back, he breaks again.
34:55
The set is on Cobolli's racket now to try to even this up. He just scared- Let's-... FAA with a piercing look with those blue eyes. That's all it takes. Yeah. Just looks across.
35:05
Will Hill is kind enough to join us for a second segment here. Uh, you can follow him again at Not The Will Hill on Twitter. He's the host of the Shoulda Bet More podcast.
35:12
He joins us now, once again, courtesy of the Progressive guest line. Will, your, uh, your most recent guest on Shoulda Bet More is who? Chris Masero, uh, breaking down Belmont, NBA finals, NHL finals.
35:26
Uh, en- enjoyed talking to Chris. He does a good job. He... If you look at some of these contests over recent years, Chris is a, a mainstay- Yes, he is... of winning some of these circuit contests.
35:33
So, uh, e- excited to, uh, to, to have Chris on, and Chris always does a good job.
35:37
Uh, there, by the way, if you want more of Shoulda Bet More podcast, you wanna download and subscribe, just scan the QR code, as Will gets the neon green branding. So you can't miss it there on the screen.
35:48
Um, last baseball play. You gave us two already. You have a third. What is it today? A Red Sox team total over four and a half. I...
35:56
Another situation similar to the Braves where I thought about laying it with the Red Sox, dollar 45, dollar 50.
36:02
Eh, I mean, uh, not opposed to laying it, but maybe just the better angle here, and I, I think the better angle is to just take the team total over.
36:08
Bassett has seen better days here at the end of his career, probably in the last year of his career, I would imagine. Uh, the command's not there. The velocity's not there.
36:16
He's gotten hit hard, and you throw him in that small ballpark.
36:18
I know the Red Sox, not exactly an offensive juggernaut here, but you throw him in that small ballpark in Fenway, uh, I think it'll be a rough night here for Bassett.
36:26
So Red Sox team total over four and a half, despite the fact they're not getting the ninth at bat. I think they should be able to get some runs here off Bassett. All right, I know it's only June 3rd.
36:34
We do have our, uh, NFL betting guide coming out, though, in 19 days, June 22nd. NFL betting guide 1.0. There's always amendments as the summer goes on.
36:43
Miles Garrett traded from the Browns to the Rams for Jared Verse and a few draft picks. Uh, obviously A.J. Brown goes from the Eagles to the Patriots finally. Um, that has happened. What about your Minnesota Vikings?
36:56
Let's start there. In a bunched up NFC North- Ooh... where do you have your Vikings finishing this season? Boy, it's a good question. I think they're worth a shot as a sleeper.
37:08
It reminds me a little bit of the team two years ago. They're just flying under the radar a little bit. You can get them, like, plus 160 to make the playoffs.
37:14
The roster's good, the coaching staff is good, and I feel like we say this every year about the Vikings. As long as they can get B-minus, C-plus play from the quarterback, the rest of the team is pretty damn good.
37:25
Now, the problem is the rest of the division's pretty damn good- Yeah... because Detroit, uh, you know, the Bears seem to have their stuff together, and the Packers are always pretty good here.
37:33
So it's not like some of these other divisions where, you know what, get to 10 or 10 wins and you win that division or you go to the playoffs. You can have a really good team, I mean, not...
37:41
All, all four [laughs] probably can't make it, uh, and I know a couple years ago three made it with, uh, you know, real- really nice win re- win-loss records. So I think they're live.
37:50
I think they're worth, uh, a flyer here, but I understand that it's a really, really tough division here. But I'll, I'll call them a playoff team. I'll be a little bit of a homer here. I'll say they get in the playoffs.
37:58
With that coaching staff, you know, maybe the Bears take a step back with Caleb Williams and some of the ba- the ball doesn't bounce their way as much in the close games, but, uh, that's a really, really tough NFC North.
38:07
A make playoffs call- I might-... from Will... I might get there too, man. I'm right back, I'm right back on this Vikings team with you too again th- uh, this year, Will. It's, uh...
38:18
Nick brought this up too, Nick Whalen, I think last week with us. I, like, I don't even think...
38:23
I think it's incredibly insulting to Kyler Murray, who we all like to joke about, but that, that there's even a, even a discussion about, like, him and J.J. McCarthy being on the same level.
38:32
I, I, I think it is a, a huge improvement to have Kyler Murray back there. So yeah, with all the other things that Minnesota brings to the table, I'm, I'm with you, Will. Vikings quarter- I'm live...
38:41
Vikings quarterback depth chart, Kyler Murray, J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer. But why, how is Brosmer even on a roster still? How's Carson Wentz still on a roster though? I know. Um, okay.
38:52
What's the, what's the prevailing opinion, either through betting markets or just anecdotally that you've soaked in from whatever football handicapping you've, you've soaked in thus far, that you are, that you can't get behind, that you're hearing and you're like, "I don't know if I'd buy that"?
39:10
It's a great question, and if it's one that I ask guests, uh, later in the summer and I forget to give you credit, I will give you the credit right now. [laughs] I love when you ask this question.
39:19
I just think it's too early. I don't think there's enough opinions out there to choose from where I go, "Oh, that one I don't agree with," or, "This one I don't agree with."
39:27
I just don't know that there's enough out there. I think we're too early in the process for me to have anything to disagree with. I- Let's, let's re- The, the one that- Let's reshape that. Go ahead.
39:35
What's, what's an outlying opinion of yours then that you think is sort of outlying? Yeah, I mean, I don't know that this is outlying. I, I, I'll put it... I'll, I'll, I'll answer my own question, I guess.
39:45
T- to me, the best bet I think out there right now is either some form of Patriots under wins, Patriots to miss the playoffs, or Bills to win the division. Yep.
39:53
I just don't know with all of the Vrabel stuff, with the contrast and the schedule they had last year to the schedule they have this year, and it's a...
40:00
I- it went from as soft a schedule as you can have, as we, you know, we talked about many times last year, to a very difficult schedule this year.
40:06
And, uh, I, I just think that, the Vrabel stuff, I think all of that to me adds up for a big step back. Now, it's priced in.
40:13
It's baked in somewhat here for the Patriots, but everyone was on the Bills last year to win the division, even at big prices. So you know what? Throw it in a parlay.
40:20
It's a free spot on a bingo card, and that ended up not being the case. I think the Bills to win the division's a pretty good bet this year.
40:27
Do you feel the Rams' move in the futures markets is justified after the Miles Garrett trade? From 8/1 to 6/1 to win it all, 3/1 to win the NFC East, even money or thereabouts to win the division. I think it's justified.
40:40
I don't know that I would play it after. That's one where if you're quick to the switch, you add it and you're happy you have it.
40:45
If you're late to the party with it, you know what, maybe they lose a couple games early and you jump on it.
40:50
Injury's obviously such a big factor in the NFL, and if you lost Stafford for a couple games, or if you lost Garrett for a couple games, maybe you get a better number. But I do think it's justified.
40:58
And I don't know, I'm getting the sense this Aaron Donald talk is real, where he says, "You know what? I can't rule it out. We get the home game, uh, for the Super Bowl here."
41:07
Uh, there, there's, uh, there seems to be some smoke there. Oh, oh man. I mean, if they add Aaron Donald to what they already have, good luck trying to block them, so, uh, I do think it's justified.
41:16
I, uh, on the other hand of it, like I... it doesn't really affect the betting aspect of it. I thought it was a good trade for Cleveland. I mean, what are you doing with Garrett? You're not going anywhere. Yeah.
41:23
Uh, turn that chip into other chips and just kinda rebuild. Maybe you get, find a quarterback along the way. You get a player, not of Garrett's ilk, but versus a really good player, a young player. You add some picks.
41:35
You get some cap relief, all of those things, and I, I, I thought the trade made sense for both teams. I do think it is worth a pause, right?
41:42
Like we've, we've been doing this since the dawn of time, around the sports betting calendar, every sport, and we can remember, right, off-season moves.
41:51
I, I think about the Philadelphia Phillies when they had, right, Halladay and, uh, Hamels. Yeah. Um, uh, Oswalt. I'm forgetting a fourth in that rotation.
42:00
Anyway, that, this is one of these things where off-season's like, oh my- Cliff Lee maybe. Well, who was it? Yeah, Cliff Lee. Cliff Lee, exactly. Cliff Lee. Cliff Lee. Yeah.
42:06
And remember it was also, "Oh my God, this isn't fair. This team is clearly gonna win the World Series," right?
42:10
So there's, there's been any number of these kinds of things through the years, and it is worth a moment to pause, and I'm glad we had this discussion with Drew yesterday, to sort of say, "Okay, nothing's as easy as it seems in the moment when acquisitions happen."
42:26
'Cause all it takes, right, with the Rams is one injury, right, to the wrong person, Stafford leaps to mind, right? And then it all just goes kaput.
42:32
So I'm just saying from just a broad sports betting perspective, it's not even a question here, but it is worth pausing and saying, "We've seen these kinds of things before.
42:41
Not only do they not always manifest, they rarely manifest," I guess. Yeah, and, uh, when you said Philadelphia, I thought you were gonna bring up from around the same time period.
42:50
Remember the Eagles, they talked about Vince Young was on, it was the Dream Team, because he was the backup quarterback. Yes. They brought in Nnamdi Asomugha.
42:56
And, uh, you know, to your point, and it's a good one, when you win the off-season, very rarely does that translate into winning, uh, you know, i- in the regular season or winning the whole thing.
43:05
So i- i- it's a good point, and I remember, too, this is before that, this is the early 2000s, and I don't know if it was on this level, but I'm sure you remember the, the Redskins stocked up on, like- Yep...
43:15
Deion Sanders and- Mm-hmm... uh, Bruce Smith and all these guys. They were huge names, but it didn't add up, 'cause they were all way past their prime, and it just, it didn't even come close to manifesting.
43:24
Thanks for reminding me, Will. Yes, it was a very dark period of time in the early 2000s when Bruce Smith, Deion Sanders. Remember, there's more. There's Sean Gilbert and Albert Haynesworth and Dana Stubblefield.
43:37
Yeah, there was a lot. I mean, it was just [laughs], it was all these, you know, has beens that just collapsed as soon as they got in a Skins uniform. Um, I asked this of Sporer, I'll ask this of you on the way out.
43:47
June 2nd, give me your six MLB- Oh... AL teams in the playoffs. Give me your six NLs. All right. Uh, Yankees, Guardians, Mariners, Rays, White Sox. I'll go with the... Boy, I'm, I'm torn between the A's and the Rangers.
44:05
I think we did this last week and I went with A's. I want to say Rangers, but I'll stick with the A's. Okay. But if you gave me True Serum, I might say the Rangers.
44:11
So Yankees, Rays, Guardians, Mariners, uh, White Sox, and A's. National League. Dodgers, Braves, uh, let's see. Dodgers, Braves, one, uh, Brewers, and then I'll go Phillies. Uh, let's see.
44:28
Phillies and let's see, what do I need, two more? Yes. I'll go with the Pirates, and I will go with the Padres. Wow. You guys were 11 of 12 matching. The only difference, the A's and the Rangers. That's it.
44:45
Pirates match for both of you guys. Wow, I didn't know that was... Mm-hmm. That would be the, uh- Let's get them in. That would be the, Pirates- It'd be fun... Pirates and White Sox match for both of you guys.
44:53
That would be the upsets there. Thank you, Will. Appreciate it. Shoulda Bet More, available while you get, where you get all your podcasts. Appreciate it, man. See you guys. Thanks for having me.
45:02
Will Hill, everybody, @NotTheWillHill. Two E's on the the. Coming back on The Numbers Game, Todd Wisniew and more next. [upbeat rock music]
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