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Jun 4, 2024
A Numbers Game | June 4, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | June 4, 2024 | Hour 1
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. The Tuesday edition of A Numbers Game is live, presented by Zanis.
0:13
We're back from downtown Las Vegas. It is Bar Canada at the D. Big show for you today as I'm Ben Wilson, in again for Gil Alexander for the next couple of days.
0:22
Drew Dincic, our pal from NBC Sports and the Bet The Edge podcast. He will join us in 15 minutes talking all things French Open and the NBA finals. We'll also get Paul Spohrer, our pal from FanGraphs on at 11:30 Eastern.
0:34
And Kelly Bidlin is here. Who says, Kelly, you need NBA, NHL playoff action every day to have some fun watching sports?
0:41
Or, or at the very least to get, uh, frustrated watching and betting sports as I was as my, uh, Oklahoma baseball regional goes down in flames last night. It is fun this time of year. It is nice to be able to- Yeah...
0:50
uh, to fill the space with, uh, some French Open and some college baseball.
0:56
Especially, I, I was saying before the show, lo- love it out here on the West Coast 'cause you get the French Open action through the morning, you know, early afternoon. It's awesome. It did- We had late yesterday. Yeah.
1:04
Uh, y- I mean, the Alexander Zverev, Holger Rune match finished at almost 5:00 PM Pacific last night, which as somebody who grew up b- pre lights and night matches at the French Open, it's just such, such a bizarre feeling to be sitting there and I'm watching a Bruce Phillies game on one TV and a live French Open match on the other.
1:21
It was just the trippiest thing ever. But I did, we did get there.
1:24
It, it was a sweat and a half there as Zverev wins in five sets, uh, over Holger Rune, uh, to cash out, uh, the second leg there of a money line parlay we, uh, we gave out yesterday.
1:32
The bigger news though out of the French Open, which we'll dive deeper into with Drew Dincic here in a few minutes, Novak Djokovic. Man, this guy does it again, Kelly.
1:40
It is amazing how he just, he feeds off of tension, and he passes Roger Federer. Most Grand Slam single match wins all time. Ooh. Passes Fed yesterday with a win over Francisco Cerundolo.
1:51
Back to back, four and a half plus hour matches [laughs] for Djokovic. He didn't finish at 3:07 AM this time. Uh, but
1:58
he, uh, re-aggravates his right knee in the process, which was giving him trouble anyway coming into the French Open. And now he says he's not sure if he'll suit up tomorrow.
2:04
Quarterfinals against Casper Ruud, who he's, has faced before in this tournament on the clay in the French Open final in years past.
2:12
And Ruud is as about as good as anybody non, you know, really non big three over the last five, six years on clay. So we wonder now, A, what's the likelihood that Djokovic even plays, and B, if he does,
2:25
you have to think Ruud will be, uh, will be very, very live in that match. But that was the big story coming out of yesterday and, uh, it was amazing to watch Djokovic.
2:31
His level has clearly fallen off, yet he still just finds ways against these players with lesser mental fortitude- Right... to just grind it out, and it is something... It's a sight to behold. He did the...
2:40
You see the hydroplane yesterday, Kelly- Oh, yeah... where he ends up on his stomach? It was, it was nuts. Um, [laughs] I saw that.
2:45
I saw, may- maybe this happens more at French Open and Wimbledon than, than I've realized, but, uh, yeah, I know these g- I know these guys, and especially Djokovic, uh, wi- with some of the bigger egos.
2:55
Like in the NBA, they, they'll, they'll, they'll mouth off, right, at the, uh, umpires a- and, uh, and people.
3:00
I don't know if I've ever seen someone working at the f- like the facilities managers get called out like Novak was going off yesterday. [laughs] It was truly wild.
3:08
He's out he- I thought he was yelling at poor Fred back in the tunnel- Yeah... about how crappy the w- the clay was c- uh, raked, right? I was just cracking up.
3:15
Jim Courier on, you know, on commentary for, for the tennis channel was going like, you know, Jim Courier, great tennis player, and he's going audibly asking on the broadcast like, what is he asking them to do?
3:26
[laughs] Right. Like, this makes no sense. Like, what, what is sweeping the court g- like it's the French Open. It's center court. Like the, it's in pristine shape. Like, what is he talking about?
3:34
Well, it, it- It's all just a show. It wasn't his point, too. Like, it, it's not like it's changed throughout the match. No. Right? You know, like [laughs] it's the same thing from at the beginning.
3:42
So, uh, that was pretty crazy. But like you said, Djokovic, it, it is still so impressive to watch. Uh, a- and yeah, yeah, you summed it up well, man.
3:49
The mental, just mental fortitude, like I, it's, th- these guy- these younger guys just don't stand a chance in those moments when he, when he's like that. Uh, Ruud, minus 130. That's what's wild.
3:59
Djokovic plus 105- Yeah... up at DraftKings right now for that match. Djokovic out to six to one in the futures, uh, i- uh, in the futures market.
4:07
Um, I still haven't bet, bet on him, but, uh, I'm not betting against him, Ben. I don't care how bad his knee is. You're still not betting against him? [laughs] Still not betting against the dude, no.
4:16
Ruud, so Ruud goes from 11 to one to seven to one in the futures market, and you talk about that top half of the draw.
4:21
Not only is Ruud now favorite against Djokovic, and I would say the one, depending on the book, some books it just needs to go a set for action, but the one worry you would have of l- you know, not only are you laying a price against Djokovic, which is the ultimate bottom of his market if you are Casper Ruud and wanting to bet on him, but, you know, the odds of this match doesn't finish, Kelly.
4:40
I mean, who's to say? There's, you know, there's a re-aggravation there. I mean, I'm sure, you know, Djokovic will be taking the good stuff, uh, if he, if he, if he is gonna try to suit up.
4:47
But there's also a very real possibility that that match doesn't even finish, and you might not even be able to, to capitalize on that ticket or, or- Well, that's a great call...
4:54
or sort of, uh, in, you know, in match betting, so to speak. So you look at the top half of the draw. You have Ruud at seven to one. Alexander Zverev is over a $2 favorite tomorrow, who barely got there yesterday.
5:06
Uh, he's facing Alex de Minaur, and Zverev has played back-to-back five setters on his own, Kelly. I mean, this is over eight matches of on-court time.
5:14
So Ruud from just a pure, and Ruud wins in four sets over Taylor Fritz, the American, yesterday. Now Ruud's had a couple of four setters, but none that have gone the distance.
5:21
So just purely, if you're talking odds standpoint based on who is the immediate path, quarterfinals against a guy who is less than 100% health, who's been on court for over nine hours each of the last, uh, two matches combined.
5:34
And then your opponent in the semifinals potentially, if the, if the favorite result holds, is a guy in Alexander Zverev, who has also had back-to-back five set matches and has clearly struggled with his own form at times, uh, as big, big favorites who has had to go the distance in those.
5:48
Casper Ruud, now this is probably the last chance, I would say, at seven to one where it makes sense to get a future on him, since you avoid seeing the two favorites, Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner.
5:58
Those are two on the bottom half of the draw. Those are also two players who have dealt with their own injury, uh, issues and have been less than 100% coming into this tournament.
6:06
So I would say if you haven't done so already, this would be the time here, uh, for Ruud.
6:11
Uh- Personally, Zverev was my pick this top half of the draw, and with each match I'm g- [laughs] you grow less and less confident.
6:17
He's found a way to get through him, Kelly, but he just drives you crazy with some of the unforced errors and, and which has really in turn led him to playing a lot more tennis than he should, should have had to have played at this point.
6:27
Yeah, it's, uh, I, I, great points all around on, on, on, on that, on the top half there. And the, and the Ruud, the pricing is just interesting when you talk match ver- match versus futures book, right?
6:37
Because you've got Ruud's the favorite in the match, longer on the futures, on the futures board, uh, than Novak.
6:43
I understand the history is there and the win equity if you want, if you wanna go there with Novak Djokovic as far as just winning Grand Slams, but, you know, I, I think that's a great point.
6:53
You're already getting longer odds in the futures market, and if there's, if there is a chance that that match doesn't finish and your match bet gets burnt- Is voided, yeah... yeah, it get, it gets voided.
7:04
So yeah, I think maybe if you are looking at that match, at least be sp- at least be sp- uh, sprinkling here in the f- in the futures market, if not just disregarding the match, uh, bet altogether. No question.
7:14
Today we are in the first of the two quarterfinals on the bottom half of the draw. Jannik Sinner is in complete command right now.
7:19
He was a $4 favorite against Grigor Dimitrov, who finally made his first French Open quarter, a guy who's had so ma- so many injuries throughout his career.
7:26
Sinner is already up a set and a break there, so well on his way. Stefanos Tsitsipas, Carlos Alcaraz. Alcaraz over a $4 favorite. Uh, that's set to get underway just after 2:00 PM Eastern Time.
7:36
On the women's side, it was, it was hilarious, Kelly, our, after, uh, after the show, we were getting, our guy J-Rod was tweeting, uh, that I was using, that I was using propaganda yesterday.
7:45
I love some of the words that were coming out of yesterday. Uh, propaganda, slander. I like, I like twisting your words. You, you do like twisting my words. That's what's so fun, yeah.
7:52
Um, so Iga Swia- the Iga Swiatek- Man blasted Iga Swiatek yesterday on the air. That's right... I basically said she was never gonna win another match- [laughs]... is what I said yesterday.
7:59
She beats Marketa Vondrousova, 0 and 2. So if you're keeping score at home, that is a f- the last f- two matches Iga has won, uh, four sets to none, losing a combined two games. Not bad. And Coco Gauff rallied today.
8:11
Ons Jabeur, who suddenly found some form in this tournament, uh, Kelly, she, I mean, Jabeur was just unbettable the better part of four months, but, uh, has really found something, and she pushed Jabe- she pushed, uh, Coco Gauff there, uh, really, really hard.
8:23
Gauff comes from a set down to win that match, so it sets up a Coco Gauff, Iga Swiatek, uh, semifinals, which will, uh, go up later, uh, later on in the week.
8:32
And the early pricing on that, just checking my odds screen here, uh, for the update there, I'm seeing Swiatek, uh, at least offshore about -735. So that gives you an idea.
8:41
As good as Coco Gauff is, I would, you know, you would be stunned even to see her take a set, uh, off of Swiatek. Yeah, -800 at DK. DK up to -800, yeah. Swiatek -215 now to, uh, win the French.
8:52
We tomorrow will have the other two quarterfinals there, uh, Jasmine Paolini, Elena Rybakina. Rybakina a big favorite. Mirra Andreeva and Aryna Sabalenka, uh, Sabalenka over, uh, a $4 favorite there.
9:02
So yes, Swiatek does in fact make me eat my words of her never winning a match, uh, ever again as she wins 0 and 2 today. That's right. [laughs] That was, that was fun stuff. Uh, that's our, our tennis update.
9:13
We'll dive into it deeper with Drew Dincic in a little bit, but I, I do think we did kind of identify, Kelly, uh, the bet to make here if you are, you know, if, depending on your portfolio, if you still believe that you wanna get involved to your futures market, because this is honestly the first French Open men's side in two decades where you could make a compelling case for five different players- Yeah...
9:30
winning the tournament. Even at this stage, we're inside the round of 16 now, down to the some of the quarterfinal matchups, uh, and that's what we have going on right now.
9:38
Uh, the, uh, the other thing too, so there was college baseball last night. The Super Regionals are set.
9:43
Unfortunately, this is where it gets into, you know, we live in this little, our own, our own sports betting bubbles, it matters a lot to us. Might not matter to as many people as far as total handle, rest of country.
9:53
So DraftKings has not posted anything.
9:55
There is, I see one book that has posted, uh, some Super Regional futures, Kelly, but they are very slow to trickle out, and the, the books that are posting are, uh, are not making it very favorable, at least on the, the straddle that they're taking.
10:07
So- Yeah... be patient, I would say, if you're a college baseball bettor. But we can give some initial thoughts because we did, uh, we did wrap up all the regionals last night.
10:14
There was that, did you see any of that North Carolina-LSU game? That was nuts. Did watch a little bit of that. Wow. I watched a little bit of Oklahoma State-Florida 'cause my Oklahoma State ticket went down. Ah, yeah.
10:23
Uh, that was pretty wild too. What was it? Like three straight games where they had, uh, fan interference basically for, for home runs in that game [laughs] or that series? Like, that was nuts.
10:32
You see some weird stuff in, uh, in, in college baseball. Yeah, yeah, I mean, credit to UConn, who, I mean, blitzed through a, a, that was a really good region. Oklahoma, Duke, UConn comes out of it as the three seed.
10:42
We had, uh, the other one, Evansville- Evansville, yep... the four seed, massive upset over East Carolina.
10:47
So yeah, I mean, it, it, uh, it can tend to be a chalkier sport, but if anything, this last weekend plus yesterday, Kelly, it proved y- you won't, you aren't gonna get by just totally betting the favorites every single, every single time, every single year in this with college baseball.
11:01
You can have upsets galore, and, uh, man, did we have some over the weekend here. Now it makes for a re- a Super Regional where
11:08
I don't know how much, how attractive the pricing's gonna be 'cause you still have the behemoths who are there, the Tennessees, the Texas A&Ms of the world.
11:14
They're now just laying ginormous prices against some of these, these teams that made the, the dream run. Like Tennessee-Evansville is gonna be impossible to bet. [laughs] It just is. Uh, that was, that's funny.
11:23
You wanna lay $7 on Tennessee in a best two of three series? Nah, I'm good. I mean, go for it. Yeah, I'm good. [laughs] It's hard. Can't do it. Tennessee, uh, the number one seed still, still in.
11:33
They will get Evansville, the one four seed who made it out of regionals. We'll talk more college baseball later. On the other side, Drew Dincic on the French Open, on the NBA finals.
11:43
A lot still to come here on the Tuesday edition of The Numbers Game. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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12:36
Just getting started here on the Tuesday edition of The Numbers Game with Kelly Bidlin. I'm Ben Wilson. We did discover, Kelly, another book that is offering, uh, college baseball super regional prices. So that's good.
12:46
Now we just have to- He'll be slowly coming up this morning... slowly coming up. I get-- We get impatient here, you know? We just- [laughs] We very- Give us the odds We do. It doesn't matter what the sport is.
12:54
And of course- When is stuff gonna get posted? Do it now... and of course, there's, there's one underdog that I, that I really want to bet here for supers, and I'm just like, "Come on, give me a fair price.
13:01
Give me a, give me a representative price," not this, not this minus 175, plus 135 stuff, but whatever. We'll, we'll figure it out.
13:09
Uh, as we wait for the college baseball futures to come out, we go out to our progressive guest line where Drew Dincic, he's been up for several hours watching French Open tennis, talking some, uh, French Open.
13:17
We'll talk some, uh, NBA in a little bit as well with, with Drew. You see him on NBC Sports, uh, Edge and the Deep Dive podcast. Drew joining us right now here. Uh, all right, Drew.
13:27
I [laughs] it's wh- it's, it's fair to say, right?
13:29
It's been about two decades since you could make a compelling case for five different players winning a French Open, I mean, really since Nadal came onto the scene in the mid-2000s.
13:39
Uh, and yet, uh, one of the guys here at the top, Novak Djokovic, has the reaggravation of the knee injury yesterday. We're not even sure if he'll go tomorrow against Casper Ruud.
13:47
A, how likely do you see Djokovic playing, and B, is it a fair market price now to see Ruud adjusted to the favorite, uh, in that match betting-wise?
13:57
Well, uh, as we stand here today recording, um, Dimitrov looks likely out, so we're down to seven.
14:02
And if we were to do a draft of, uh, who do you think is the most likely to win, and we went back and forth, Djokovic is probably the last pick right now. Yeah.
14:10
And it is because the injury, and even if he were healthy, like this is a really tough road for him. He's gonna have, um... He's gonna have to go through Ruud and then potentially, uh, uh, Alexander Zverev.
14:21
I mean, if Zverev even beats de Minaur. Zverev has played a lot of tennis as well.
14:25
But, um, it's crazy that the, uh, you know, the only guy here with pedigree, the only guy here who has won the French Open before, the defending champion, would be the last choice of those remaining.
14:36
Um, and it really kind of comes down to the fact that he did not come into this clay season with purpose, with fitness, and kind of, you know, missed his opportunities to put together a sustained run on clay in preparation for this event.
14:50
And because of that, he's been a little bit lacking some of the sharpness that you expect from Grand Slam Novak Djokovic.
14:57
And what that did, that opened the door for L- Lorenzo Musetti in the night match on Saturday to take the second and third sets and make that a five-setter. Uh, that match ended at 3:15 in the morning local time.
15:08
It is by far the latest finish that we have ever had for a French Open match in history.
15:13
Back in the day, they didn't use to have a roof or lights on the main court at the French Open, and so, uh, you know, it would get to be, um, 9:30.
15:21
It was, like, sunset-ish, and it would, there would, there'd be a curfew. [laughs] "Sun- sunset, guys. Pack it up." You know, it's like [laughs] "This is a break point, a deciding set. What do you mean pack it?"
15:32
"Oh, sunset, guys. I, I don't know what to tell you. Uh, wish there was something we could do about this." But, uh, now they have lights, and they, they have kind of leaned into the other direction, which is- Yeah...
15:41
we will make these guys play till infinity.
15:43
Uh, and while that was amazing for those of us who wanted to watch tennis in, you know, prime time on the West Coast [laughs] you know, that was taking place in Europe, uh, it was not great for the players.
15:53
And, uh, Djokovic was pretty clearly physically ailing when he came back out for his match against Cerundolo yesterday.
15:59
And, um, you know, watching the start of that match, I was pulling my hair out, like, "Cerundolo, like, c- like, dude, like, you have an injured animal here." Yeah. It's a no-show for a set. Like just- Yeah...
16:08
yeah, just g- no, no showing in the first set and, like, you know, just kinda not really playing with purpose or focus or...
16:14
You know, it was very, very frustrating to watch, and then he finally started to dial it up in the second set. He takes the third. He had Djokovic absolutely dead to rights in the fourth.
16:23
He was probably two or three points away from, uh, a, a win there.
16:27
If, if he holds, uh, and then, you know, kind of puts Djokovic on defense, um, uh, to stay in the match, uh, at the end of the fourth set, it's probably over. Uh, Djokovic breaks back. He gets the crowd behind him.
16:39
The meds kick in or whatever he was taking- [laughs]... to try to absolve the knee pain. And the rest is history. He wins in five.
16:45
But, um, the damage done by spending as much time on court as he has in his last two rounds is not something that you can solve by, uh, treatment. It's not something you can solve by recovery.
16:56
Um, and, uh, and, you know, just, oh, by FYI, if you didn't know, Djokovic's entire team, his nutritionist, his strength and conditioning coaches, his tactical coach, all of them have been, uh, kind of dispatched this year in 2024.
17:10
So, um, he, you know, ho- if he, if he found the miracle new team that could get him right for, uh, this quarterfinal match, then, you know, maybe we have a match on our hands.
17:18
The market was extremely unimpressed by what they saw from Djokovic, uh, yesterday, and, you know, was a s- was a quick bet against in the, uh, opening money line against Casper Ruud in the quarterfinal.
17:30
And, um, and then today the news has been sort of swirling that he's had now initial checks on his knee after the match. He's had an MRI today. Uh, I doubt that there's any structural damage, but this is all sort of
17:44
kind of evidence that he w- you know, not evidence, but just, like, the, the, the, um, you know, laying the groundwork for, uh, a walk, a walkover, a withdrawal here. Sure. Which, uh, wouldn't be crazy. Like, he's, he...
17:55
You know, I think if you gave him priorities and you're like You know, hey, do you wanna risk, um, the next two months of your, you know, kind of, you know, the twilight of your career here?
18:04
Do you wanna waste those new next two months, um, recovering from a more significant knee injury, or do you wanna be right for a Wimbledon crown ta- chance, and the Olympics, right?
18:14
Like, there are two massive events coming up this summer that I think he has priority over winning this championship.
18:20
And, like, look, if everybody else had crashed and burned and there was, like, "I just gotta beat a couple of every, you know, some, some journeyman here to get to a title," then that would be one thing.
18:30
But he's gonna have to go through the best defender that we've seen to this point in the tournament in Casper Ruud.
18:35
He's gonna have to go through the best service that we've seen in this tournament in Alexander Zverev, and then he's gonna have to play an absolute blue-chip player, the likes of, uh, Sinner most likely, Alcaraz second most likely, Tsitsipas third most likely, to actually win the title.
18:48
And that is, that right there is a, is a gauntlet, uh, ta- setting aside what he's already done. Um, so I think, uh, expecting a walkover is, is at least 50/50, if not more.
18:58
Uh, and, uh- It was seven to one, uh, in match, yeah, yesterday. Yeah. Seven to one. Yeah, it was... Yeah. [laughs] And I looked at it and I said- Dead to rights...
19:05
I looked at it, I watched it, and I'm like, "Nah, [laughs] I'm good." And, uh, yeah, he came back and won. Yeah. But, uh, you know, it, it, uh, yeah, I, I, I think realistically, this title is still very wide open.
19:16
Um, you know, you, you s- I wouldn't, I would not give, even though he spent the fewest amount of minutes on court or played the fewest amount of games in this tournament, I do not give Alex de Minaur a realistic chance to win.
19:28
Um, but everybody else in that mix right there in the top six is, is, uh, you know, has a shot. A top five in particular, as you excuse Djokovic, I think are the most interesting. Um, my future price is on Ruud.
19:39
It's not gained as much equity as it ought to have. Um, but, uh, you know, my, I, I think dream setup for me is Ruud comes through, uh, in a walkover.
19:49
He gets d- de Minaur in a semifinal where de Minaur is just wildly overmatched. Uh, and then the bottom half just turns into absolute war. Like, I think Tsitsipas, I bet Tsitsipas to beat Alcaraz outright today.
20:01
I think Tsitsipas plus six is also a good bet today against Alcaraz. And, and I, I, you know, for me at least, Tsitsipas versus Sinner would be a very physical, very long match.
20:10
Uh, and, uh, hopeful that, uh, you know, Tsitsipas could do a little bit of damage on Sinner. Uh, otherwise Sinner's winning this thing. Drew Dinsick with us here on a Numbers Game.
20:18
Uh, Jannik Sinner we're watching in studio right now. Drew, just took the second set, so he's up after, uh, six-two, six-four there on Grigor Dimitrov, well on his way.
20:26
And so yeah, so it's funny, 'cause you say, all right, Sinner one, Alcaraz two, Tsitsipas three, where the odds certainly don't reflect that with Alcaraz.
20:33
You, you know, as a, as a popular guy who's been priced through the moon here, plus 125, uh, on the, the futures board.
20:38
What have you seen, even though Alcaraz has not been test- really tested yet, still had some injury concerns coming in, Drew, and how much of that are you, uh, leading into being a potential cause for upset today with Tsitsipas?
20:50
Yeah, so I've watched every minute of Alcaraz playing in this tournament. I've been wildly unimpressed by his opponents. Uh, outside of Jesper De Jong- [laughs]...
20:58
who did show up and played very, very competitively, and, uh, that was kind of the match to key on for me, because s- the Alcaraz injury is a forearm injury.
21:06
It's, I think, technically an elbow, but they're being very cautious about what they're calling it, and they're calling it a forearm. Uh, it is impacting the way he uses his forearm.
21:15
His forearm is his most dangerous weapon, and it's not close.
21:18
He has a whipping f- like, a, just a violent whipping motion with his forearm that generates power and speed and spin, uh, in ways that are very difficult to handle, even on clay, where you have, you know, a relatively slow surface.
21:31
We haven't seen that at all in 2024. Uh, we saw flashes of it at Indian Wells. I have not seen it once on clay. Uh, he has lost matches on clay that he otherwise should've easily won.
21:42
Uh, and, uh, to me, it's because he has not really had that part of his arsenal. Um, I haven't seen it at this tournament, and I am...
21:50
He's going to need it to beat Tsitsipas, because Tsitsipas, at least for what has been a very weird clay season, has the best numbers overall, uh, in terms of his production.
21:58
So he's playing the best, I think, overall tennis right now on clay, and I think he's gonna get the better of Alcaraz today. But, uh, mostly I'm just kind of appalled at that price.
22:07
The market is basically saying- Yeah... this is 80/20, which is nonsense. Like, there's, this is a, this is gonna be a very close match.
22:14
And I mean, if, if peak Alcaraz from last summer shows up, uh, where he was minus 450-ish, I think, against Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals and handled him comfortably, then I will be blown out of my chair.
22:26
But, uh, it's possible. Sure. Alcaraz minus, uh, as high as minus 460 there in the market. Drew, we're gonna keep you another segment, if that's all right. NBA finals talk next as the, the...
22:35
We can always talk so much tennis. Uh, great discussion here with a whole lot of carnage going on in Paris. We'll talk NBA finals with Drew as we, uh, keep him on next. We continue right here on a Numbers Game.
22:45
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23:49
Continuing on a numbers game as we're back from downtown Las Vegas. Bar Canada at the D.
23:54
We had so much fun talking French Open with Drew Dinsick in our last segment, Kelly, that, uh, we didn't even get to the NBA Finals. That's right. We didn't even get to the women's side.
24:01
We didn't even get to the women's side. [laughs] But alas, here we, here we are. Yes, we did not get to the women's side. Where Iga Swiatek wins, uh, big today. Ons Jabeur wins in three over Coco Gauff.
24:10
Uh, we're talking NBA Finals now with Drew Dinsick. Again, you can follow him @whale_capper. Back on our Progressive guest line, analyst for NBC Sports and the Deep Dive podcast.
24:19
As far as the, uh, series price here, Drew, just to start things off with Boston and, uh, Dallas here. Boston over a $2 favorite here. Dallas in the plus 185 range.
24:27
So how fair of a price do you have that as we get set for game one Thursday night? Well, uh, you know, again, no shade to the women at the, at, at the French Open, but it's a foregone conclusion that Iga's gonna win.
24:39
But, uh, even at the outright price of minus 215, I make the Celtics- [laughs]... more likely champions than Iga Swiatek at the French Open. Um, yeah, I mean, I, I...
24:50
You wanna start with, uh, the kind of the series market, which looks broken to me. That's kind of an interesting discussion.
24:56
You wanna start with the game market, which I think is not mature yet because we're waiting on confirmation that, uh, Porziņģis plays.
25:02
Um, but, uh, the, uh, I think the series prices may be more fascinating because, um, the game market right now is six and a half. The game money line implies, uh, 69% chance that the Celtics win game one.
25:15
You would expect that carries over to game two with no ex- you know, major injuries if Porziņģis is ruled in for game one, and then available for game two, maybe that's 71, 72%.
25:25
Um, it doesn't take a math genius to know that games three and game four, if games one and two are priced this way, three and four are gonna be about a pick 'em, guys, which means you can carry through 71%, 71%, 50%, 50%, and kind of get a very clear picture of what fair price is for the series for the Celtics.
25:44
And guess what? It's not in the minus two hundreds. This is not-- This is a very, very weird and difficult, um, series market to square with the, uh, game markets that we currently are looking at.
25:58
And I am, uh, I'm, I'm kind of... I've been obsessing about this for a couple of days because I'm holding lots of Celtics equity at much better prices than minus 210. Um, and, you know, we
26:10
d- d- you know, we've known for a while that this was gonna be, uh, you know, that the finals was gonna be Celtics versus either Mavericks or Timberwolves, probably Mavericks.
26:19
And so we've had lots of time to, you know, everybody's had lots of time to get exp- Celtics exposure they wanted to at prices that didn't make sense, and here we are, and sure enough, this still ha- is not making sense.
26:29
Nobody is correcting this as clear and obvious, uh, error in the series price market considering what the game number is. And I, it's, I, it's, find it pretty fascinating.
26:39
So if you have kind of any type of math model where you're using, um, [lips smack] you know, any type of simulation to come up with what a series fair ought to be, it is telling you to bet the Celtics at minus 210.
26:50
But you're series, you're booking, you already have it, so you're not betting it.
26:53
And if you have any type of I'm betting with my gut, I, I want the best player in the series, uh, uh, you know, I want, uh, you know, I, I think Dallas has got, got their number or, you know, P- You could even have a math model that is up-weighting Dallas' results since the trade deadline when they've been a very different team, and you could say that the market has really still not caught up with how good the Mavericks are.
27:14
Uh, all of these are plausible explanations, but you know what you're gonna do if you have all of those opinions? You're gonna bet Mavericks plus six. You're not gonna bet plus 175. Yeah. Right?
27:23
And so I, I think, like, if you're, if I'm, if I'm a ticket writer, you know, if I'm running a book and I'm, I'm writing series bets, you're getting one-way donkey action on Mavericks series right now, I think.
27:35
And I think you're pretty happy to write all the plus one 75s, all the plus 180s you wanna write, uh, because fair is kind of more in the plus, I don't know, plus three.
27:44
Uh, well, we'll say, like, like, fundamentally it's more in, like, the high threes. My fair for the series is minus 420 Celtics plus 420 Mavericks.
27:51
And I think, um, ultimately that, you know, this being an 80/20 type of split here is kind of just speaks to the fact that the Celtics are, uh, you know, they, they, they are kind of being slept on largely because they have played no one and because they haven't e- we haven't even really seen them have to go to playoff rotation minutes to this point in the playoffs, which is crazy.
28:10
Uh, and so I think, you know, we don't really know what the ceiling is for this team and, uh, and I think they match up especially well offense versus Mavericks defense, but that's, uh, maybe, like, a little bit of a deeper discussion here.
28:21
Um, as far as the kind of game one market goes,
28:24
I think there are people still on the sidelines waiting for best number on Mavericks who f- you know, again, feel strongly that the Mavericks are, you know, somewhat similar strength team based on all the data that they've collected since the trade deadline.
28:35
Um, but again, with the Porziņģis news kind of looming and kind of one last adjustment coming, uh, I think they're waiting for sevens, maybe seven and a halves. Um, my fair for game one would be Dallas, uh, plus seven.
28:48
Uh, uh, Boston minus seven obviously is, uh, you know, is, is worth a look at minus six and a half before we get confirmation there.
28:55
And I'm only projecting 20 minutes for Porziņģis, by the way, when I'm coming up with all my fairs here.
28:59
So if he ends up being more, you know, healthy and, and more able to contribute than, uh, you know, than 20 minutes would suggest, then this could be even, you know, more favorable for Boston.
29:08
But, um, you know, for me, the, the key standout number as I look at what I'm projecting for a given game in the Garden versus, uh, what the market is telling us is that, uh, there is a, uh, there is a lot more respect for the Dallas defense, um, than I have, uh, currently in my, in my market for this matchup.
29:27
Um, and, uh, you know, expecting that the Celtics are gonna come in around 111 points, I don't think is giving them especially fair credit for how good that offense is compared to, you know, uh, the, it's, you know, pretty clear and obvious mismatches that they have going up against the Mavericks defense.
29:42
So, um, Mavericks defense I think benefited a lot in the last series going up against a tired T'Wolves team and, and really just a kind of an out of gas, uh, Anthony Edwards.
29:51
Um, now you have a much fresher and kind of two-headed attack, uh, that is, you know, similarly capable of getting, uh, you know, getting to the rim and creating opportunities for their outside shooters.
30:01
The Mavericks tend to let you shoot from three, and the Celtics obviously love to do that. Um, they shoot well at home.
30:08
Uh, I mean, this, this could be just a, you know, bury them by threes, uh, early and often in this series.
30:14
And, um, as I kind of look at the exotic markets, uh, again, like, you know, the appetite to lay minus 210 isn't really there for me, even though again, my f- series fair is, uh, you know, minus 420.
30:25
Um, I'm, I'm into Boston minus two and a half games I think them protecting home court in game one and two, and then splitting in Dallas is very realistic.
30:34
Uh, and then my most likely series outcome at 25, it's a little over 25%, 27.4%, uh, is the Celtics win this 4-1. Um, and, uh, I have about a 16% chance that the Celtics sweep.
30:49
So between those two, I'm, I'm perfectly happy to lay a Boston minus two and a half games here, uh, in the plus money price you're getting.
30:56
Um, and I think, uh, this could be a, uh, this could be a, a pretty, uh, impressive performance that we're, you know, that we get to see here from the Celtics.
31:05
So, um, you know, excited to kind of, uh, check in with you guys- Sure... next week and, and we can decide what to do when the Celtics are down 0-2. [laughs] That's right. That's right.
31:14
Drew, I wanna go back to that real quick with the game series betting though, 'cause that, I thought it was a great conversation. Bet the Edge is the podcast, you and Jay Croucher on there.
31:22
I thought it was a great conversation. I caught it on the w- on the ride in this morning, talking about the game and series pricing. So I- I'm gonna spin it this way.
31:28
If you're looking to bet the Mavericks, I'm, I'm still not running to bet now, because I'm with you. I think we're gonna see se- a seven, maybe even a seven and a half pop once we get Porziņģis ruled unofficially.
31:38
Shams what? I just got a notification on my phone. Expected to play in game one, but I think that- Ah... we already kind of knew that already. So we'll- I would say so...
31:45
yeah, we'll s- uh, I don't know if that's really news there. And Celtics series price though, if there are people that are looking at that, do you expect a late wave of money coming in here?
31:54
Because it's only been movement towards Dallas so far. So I'm wondering how many, how many real sharp guys are sitting on the sidelines just waiting to get a better number? Yeah.
32:04
There's, there definitely, that definitely could be.
32:06
Um, but, uh, you know, a- a- and I, I guess there's, the, as far, as far as I can tell you, the, the sharp, [laughs] the sharp guys, the high liquid, the high, the highly liquid guys who are playing into, uh, the NBA markets, um, you know, if, at this point if you have an edge on a team,
32:24
I, I think you're attacking the game market more than you're attacking the series market, 'cause the liquidity pool is deeper.
32:30
Um, and I also think that you maybe have stacked enough equity on the Celtics over the balance of the last two months that you're just happy with your position and you're not betting anymore. But, um, maybe I'm crazy.
32:41
Uh, you know, I think, uh, uh, I, I, I don't think this is like bet of a lifetime type of stuff like Mayweather-McGregor or anything even close, right?
32:49
Like, this is still, there are still a lot of unknowns about this series, this match up. Celtics play with their food, Mavericks play with their food.
32:55
Like, they're, these could all come down to very, very close call games, and Celtics have not been covering lately.
33:00
You could very much make an argument that, well, you know, did we see the peak of this team during the regular season and now they're not quite as sharp, not quite as good, a little bit tired, guards playing, you know, play very, very, you know, hard defense last series.
33:13
Like, are those guys running out of gas? Like, there are certainly uncertainties here that make, uh- Sure thing... the door still open. But, uh, for me, it's Celtics to pass. He is Drew Dincic.
33:21
Give him a follow at whale_capper. Drew, always good, man, to, uh, see you enjoy the, hopefully the, hopefully Dimitrov can push Sinner a little bit here in this third set. But, uh, thanks as always for the time.
33:31
Best of luck, guys. On serve there in the third set, Kelly. Yeah. One all. As we come back, reset, talk some Major League Baseball, a couple bets I like for the action tonight.
33:39
We'll discuss it next here on A Numbers Game. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. We are so close to crowning an NBA champion.
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34:18
Big thanks to Drew Dincic for giving us not one, but two segments here on A Numbers Game. Grigor Dimitrov and, uh, Jannik Sinner on serve right now in the third set.
34:25
Sinner up two sets to love there, and we do have a few more, uh, few more tweets today, Kelly.
34:30
Most of them, uh, as you would expect in the, uh, talking about the French Open and Iga Świątek and my utter hate for her apparently.
34:36
Uh, this is good from my- Mike Silva says, "Alex the Minotaur actually an actual Minotaur? Is he a fake one like the one A-Rod had commissioned for his living room painting with his head and torso?" [laughs] Oh, my God.
34:48
[laughs] I don't even know what, that's so funny. Is that, wait, is that a real thing? Yeah, have you not, uh, seen that? Did I already forget about this? I mean, I- Oh, it's amazing. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, I do remember.
34:58
That's, that's really, really good. It's amazing, yeah. That is really, really good. Of course, the other one that pops up is that, uh, the strange, uh, what was it?
35:04
Whatever magazine shoot he did where he was, like, staring at himself in the mirror and stuff. A-Rod. Never change, A-Rod.
35:10
Uh, from Brian, "I think we need to credit my denigration," this is, that's a great word, "denigration of Iga for the dominant win, uh, this morning."
35:18
[laughs] Den- we've had, uh, yes, we have denigration, slander, uh, we've had, we've had, we've had some good words, uh, these- For those just tuning in today, I'm pretty sure all, all that Ben said was, uh- Propaganda, another one...
35:29
that, uh, Sabalenka wasn't that much fur, uh, far away from, uh, Iga. Yeah. On, on, on non-clay surfaces too. I said on non-clay. [laughs] But, uh, this is good.
35:36
Prime Time, "After my explo- [laughs] after my expletive-filled rant describing his utter hate for Iga, perhaps a visit from a crafty situational saxophone player could help soften things between he and, uh, A Numbers Game listeners."
35:48
Yes, uh, Prime Time knows that I was in the, uh, the, the jazz band in high school playing, uh, alto sax, so, uh- Alto sax... and I, and, and I was also a crafty left-hander, uh, situational lefty.
35:57
Uh, we, we, we shared that story yesterday of my, uh... The situational lefty, if you're a high school baseball pitcher, equates to you're not very good, but. Man, you had a lot to carry to school every day.
36:07
You had to bring a saxophone, bring, bring your baseball bag. What else? Uh, te- uh, my tennis, the giant tennis bag. Giant tennis bag. Man, you got a lot to carry.
36:16
The, the classic thing was if you weren't very good at tennis, you would just, like, the worse you were at tennis in high school, the bigger the bag you would get to just help overcome your, your insecurities.
36:24
[laughs] That's great. So I had the giant, the, you know, like, the giant backpack that went down, like, below my tailbone. Um- Hey, you put like four rackets in there and always blame it on the racket. Oh.
36:31
Yeah, yeah, of course. Something's wrong with this one. Hey, you put- There you go... you put all your stuff. So of course, the one thing I wouldn't bring was my actual backpack for, like, school.
36:37
[laughs] And I'm like, "Yeah, who cares? I got other stuff going on." I wanna be a sports bracket Those pads, yeah Why, why do we have to go to chemistry class?
36:44
Like, it doesn't matter Those pads you have when you see these kids that are about to topple over carrying 17 different bags like that in school And what's hilarious is I remember my first ever high school match, the guy had an even bigger bag than I did, and I was like- Oh, I'm in trouble.
36:56
[laughs] And then I, and then it was... I, I did, that was my, the double bagel. I was like, and then the guy, yeah, should not have had a big bag anyway. Anyway, we get tweets, we appreciate it as always.
37:04
Best, uh, best listeners on the, and, and viewers on the network, uh, here at Numbers Game.
37:08
All right, Kelly, we will talk some college baseball a little bit later now that we are getting some regional prices slowly trickling out, super regional prices I sh- should say, slowly trickling out.
37:17
But, uh, how about some Major League Baseball here for today? I do have a, have a couple plays while we're kind of, uh, in, [laughs] in this, uh, limbo time, right? Waiting for supers.
37:25
And, uh, yesterday, I don't know if you saw any of that, the Phillies-Brewers game. That was kind of the big series here, the two divisional leaders going at it. And, uh, Rhys Hoskins got a great... It was a cool moment.
37:33
He got a great welcome there to Milwaukee. Ends up hitting a home run in his return to Philadelphia, where he hit almost 200 homers, uh, there in his, uh, in his time in Philly.
37:41
But, uh, the Phils get the win there, uh, as, as big favorites because the Brewers were throwing a bullpen game, uh, which sounds like will be the same thing here today. So at least it was impressive for Philly.
37:51
Man, it is, it seems like the market though is at the, uh, the absolute peak there for the Phils, as they are... You know, you're laying almost $2 against a fellow [laughs] division favorite right now.
37:59
Uh, their lead continues to increase there in the NL East, but that was awfully impressive yesterday. Yeah, they're looking, they're looking good.
38:03
And those, uh, those division odds, man, they just keep skyrocketing- Yeah... Philly way. Let me talk ab- about, though, the team that is chasing them, that is the Atlanta Braves and Max Fried.
38:12
So Fried and the Red Sox start a, uh, start a series today. So that's now up to seven games, the lead here for Philadelphia. Uh, Atlanta idle yesterday. Uh, but you do have Fried who goes today, uh, taking on, uh...
38:24
He goes, just updating my odds screen now, Fried is a $1.66 favorite at DraftKings, $1.65 consensus against Cutter Crawford there, uh, going to Fenway Park and taking on the Red Sox.
38:35
Uh, look, Fried has, has been so consistent, and has really bounced back after a slow start. I don't know what it is about March and April, Kelly, but Fried is...
38:43
It's, it's this weird thing that's actually kind of a weird betting vehicle for us because he always gets off to slow starts. The numbers get skewed as a result, but he is really, really good.
38:52
He's on pace for his third straight sub-three ERA season despite getting shelled in his first couple of starts. I've noticed some big regression things, too, on Boston, specifically against lefties.
39:02
They have the number one BAB, batting average on balls in play. They're over 330, specifically against lefties, yet are just 20th in WRC+, 21st in hard hit rate.
39:13
Essentially what that's saying is Boston is, is really not making quality contact whatsoever. They're not putting together quality ABs against lefties.
39:20
But they have had an inordinate amount of soft base hits drop to the degree you would expect it to come back.
39:26
And while not all regression is created equal, this is the perfect time for it to come back to earth when you have a pitcher as elite as Max Fried, as a southpaw who's putting up great, great numbers.
39:36
Would be even better if you took out his first couple of starts going back to late March, early April. Uh, Max Fried, as a result, I will play on him today. I'm going under five and a half hits allowed for Fried today.
39:46
That was a... Updating my screen here, that was a minus, uh, 119 price, averaging about four and a half hits allowed per start. And I like the negative regression here factor with the Red Sox against lefties. I like it.
39:57
I like it. A couple for you today. Two, we do have two. We [laughs]... Hey, it's the, uh, the Florida man special today. They...
40:02
[laughs] Remember when they played this, remember when they played this series at, uh, Disney World? Yeah. [laughs] Yeah. Rays-Marlins, they would play at Disney World. Yeah. And they would do all the...
40:08
It was, it was a whole handicapping thing of like, well, the Rays are, you know, 8-1 in their last nine Disney World Games. [laughs] It was... And you would get scores like 12-10, and it just looked so, so bizarre.
40:18
Uh, Rays at the Marlins. This is not at Disney World. It is at the Loan Depot Park there in, uh, Miami. I am looking to... Uh, this is, uh, this is a full game handicap for me.
40:26
Rays, I bet this overnight -113, which you can still find a couple of books. Consensus price a minus 120 for Ryan Pepiot against Jesus Luzardo.
40:36
Uh, Tampa Bay, I'm looking at some positive regression for them also against lefties. That's kind of the theme today.
40:41
Tampa Bay actually 10th best hard hit rate against lefties this season, yet they just have not gotten rewarded for it whatsoever, and are facing a lefty in Jesus Luzardo, whose barrel rate allowed, which is the hardest of the hard hit balls, is over 10%.
40:56
It's the fifth worst record in Major League Baseball. On the flip side, you get a really good starter in Ryan Pepiot, who is expecting to also have some positive regression here, 3.88 ERA versus an expected ERA of 2.99.
41:08
His third start back after a short IL stint. I really like Pepiot coming over from the Dodgers in the Tyler Glasnow trade.
41:14
Young arm, very, very live, and has the ability, even though they haven't let him go super deep in games, but with the right matchup, can really eat up some innings. Miami has struggled all season. Tied for 24th in WRC+.
41:26
That's just my favorite metric here for measuring overall production, and that's, uh, tied for 24th in WRC+ specifically against righties. Rays to me, I'm, I'm not giving up yet, Kelly.
41:36
It's a good, uh, buy low team in the right situation. I like them today basically as a pick and price on the road against the Marlins there at -113. Yeah, I like it.
41:44
Not like the, not like the Marlins have been, uh, setting the world on fire- They, uh, they have not... like that, so. Nah. They have not. Did you ever go to any of those games at, uh, Disney World? No. No, no. No?
41:55
You didn't? No, I, I, when, when... I think I made two at the new Marlins stadium. Oh, you've been to the new Marlins stadium? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. How is that? Uh, it was really nice. It looks...
42:03
I would describe it as cavernous, but that's mostly 'cause there's nobody there. Yeah, well, right. [laughs] Right. Right. So. So I was there, what, I think it was both games I went to were the first season it was open.
42:12
So, uh, a- and I mean, I did, I moved out here not much longer after, uh, after that. But, uh, they were nice. But y- you know what's...
42:20
See, you know what's great about Marlins games, though, and some of these teams, Ben, is you can really spread out, bring an iPad- Yeah... with you.
42:26
I think I was watching, like, NBA or something on my iPad while, uh, while the Marlins were playing, so. You lay down across like four seats. Right.
42:32
[laughs] It's like, it's like when you're on an international flight and they get the whole, like- Right, exactly... back rows and stuff, yeah. It's like, it's like how nice is a flight when it's empty? Yeah.
42:38
Uh, it's just... It, it's sad if you're a fan of the franchise. [laughs] But when you go to a game, I, it's nice to have a little breathing room around you.
42:45
You ever go to games at the, when they played at, what, I, me, I refer to as Joe Robbie Stadium? Like, the baseball one. Oh, yeah.
42:50
You, you would see those home run balls, and then it would take at least like 10 minutes for the nearest fan to get to the home run ball in the crowd. Oh, that was me.
42:56
That was at one, one of the greatest summers I would say of my, uh, uh, of my life. During college, I was doing an internship down in that, uh, that area.
43:04
Group, uh, me and a c- few friends, we all decided to get season tickets for the Fish Tank is what they used to call that- Oh, nice...
43:10
uh, Ben, that little, the, the section out, out in right field, 'cause left was a little, a little higher. Um, and we'd go, man, we'd go after work like almost every single night. Again, sit out there.
43:20
Nobody else is around. That's so cool. Enjoy your bre- enjoy... Uh, we'd pro- we'd bring our own beers. Uh- Why not?... it was very easy to sneak them in.
43:26
Uh, we'd sit out there and, uh, we'd chat it up with, uh, whoever was in right field basically all night long for both teams. So good. I mean, you could, you could have a conversation- Not jealous...
43:33
without ba- basically, you don't even have to yell. There's nobody out there, like you're talking about. [laughs] Yeah. It, it...
43:38
Yes, it got to the point where there were home runs hit where we'd be like, "All right, whose turn is it to like try to run-" Yeah, yeah, yeah... "for that thing?" Like, that's- They come back an inning and a half later.
43:46
Right. [laughs] All right, I got the base- Nobody's getting... [laughs] I need a beer. I got the, I got the baseball. What's my reward? Um, anyway, that's, uh, it, Rays-Marlins tonight. Marlins baseball.
43:52
Great, Marlins baseball. That's the thing. Great stuff. The fun fact for today, Brewers are starting, uh, Jared Laney for the second straight game, Kelly. When's the last time you saw that happen? Wow.
44:00
How- He's an, he's an opener. He's an opener, okay. And he's already done it. How often does that happen, though? Uh, I can tell you. It was about two weeks ago [laughs] when Jared Laney- Wow...
44:06
he started two straight games for the Brewers. Before that, I have no idea. [laughs] Okay.
44:10
Hey, Brewers are, they're, they're inventive, uh, those, those, uh, those Milwaukee Brewers, uh, as they are taking on, uh, uh, Christopher Sanchez there at the Philadelphia Phillies today.
44:19
That's our number one in the books for us here on a Numbers Game. We will reset, get some NBA finals game one thoughts on the other side. [upbeat music]
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A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
