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Jun 4, 2024
A Numbers Game | June 4, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | June 4, 2024 | Hour 2
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44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of On Numbers Game, presented by ZYN Nicotine Pouches, live from downtown Las Vegas. Bar Canada at the D. I'm Ben Wilson in for Gil next couple of days.
0:18
Kelly Bidlin next to me, and we have some breaking news, Kelly, to hit the top of this hour here. We do. Something we talked about in hour number one. The thought was this could potentially happen, and it now has.
0:28
Novak Djokovic, the top seed, not the favorite, but the top seed at the French Open, officially pulls out after a knee injury that was re-aggravated yesterday, late night, in a match against Francisco Cerundolo.
0:41
Djokovic, who if you had opened up your odds screen this morning on the East Coast before this happened, was six to one, the fourth favorite, but was an underdog to Casper Ruud, who was even longer than him on the odds board, in tomorrow's top quarterfinal.
0:53
Djokovic is now out. He just announced that a couple minutes ago.
0:57
Ruud, as a result, is through to the semifinals, and all the futures have been, if you're looking to jump on this, as we, we attempted to during the break, or just at least to see, Kelly, uh, all futures now.
1:08
Most books have them down. Maybe a couple have already repriced these, if anything. But that's your big breaking news.
1:13
Novak Djokovic, who just passed Roger Federer for the all-time Grand Slam single matches won title yesterday, he is now out. Yeah, this is, uh...
1:21
We scrambled, uh, to look and check and possibly make a bet, uh- [laughs] Credit to the book sitting out there... if you're sitting at home right now. Uh, I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna say you still shouldn't do the same.
1:30
It, maybe you think there's a shop that still might have it up, but, uh, that's up to you. A lot of places has re- have repriced. We're seeing about plus 350 on Ruud now, uh, uh, uh, through to the semis.
1:39
That probably makes a fair amount of sense. Interested to hear,
1:43
uh, what, what news comes out of this with, with Novak, because as Drew talked about, I, I think there was, there was more testing going on, at least with that knee, than I was aware of, uh, after yesterday.
1:54
So, uh, that'll be interesting to see, and obviously a big time summer coming up for him as, as we talked about- Yes... with, with Wimbledon and, uh, and the Olympics.
2:02
And Drew Dinsick, who we had on in hour number one, he, he made the point on, uh, Gil's pod, the Beginning of the Book podcast, leading into the French Open that for, for guys especially like a Djokovic, who was already banged up and who was struggling coming into this tournament, is that something like the Olympics, which is like the last thing on his ledger to cross off, was something, this is, you know, gonna be his last Olymp- uh, last chance at an Olympics since it's every four years, that that might take precedent were a re-aggravation to happen.
2:27
And sure enough, you re-injure yourself. He also, not only that, Kelly, won back-to-back five set matches that each took four and a half hours or so.
2:34
Uh, so it's not like he was just, you know, he was, he was, uh, full of energy and hadn't been on the court all that long and just happened to tweak a knee.
2:41
No, this was like serious, [laughs] serious on-court labor- Right... that was happening over the last couple matches. Yeah, and I, Drew, Drew's, I think Drew's point was interesting then.
2:49
It's even more interesting now of it would've... I, I would've... You know, first we gotta see what, what actually came out. Maybe there was something that came out of those tests.
2:57
I don't wanna say it's, it's, it's not, you know, not something serious, and we don't know.
3:01
Um, but you know, if the rest of this field was a bu- [laughs] was a bunch of lower level players, is it something he might try to effort his way through?
3:09
If that's kind of the situation, yeah, I, I kind of think he probably would've, but, uh, we will never know that. We, we never will.
3:16
At least we likely will, will never, uh, know based on how tennis works as a, [laughs] as an individual sport. At le- we at least- It would be awesome, though, if Djokovic came out and said that. Right.
3:24
He was like, "Oh, these guys are too good." Right. Like, "Give me a bunch of scrubs. I would've played my way through, no problem." Yeah. You know?
3:29
That would've been quite, uh, quite funny, uh, for, for Djokovic to, uh, do that.
3:32
Hey, at least for us, I mean, that's kinda why we opened the show saying, if you wanna bet Casper Ruud, A, this is probably the last chance to get a good futures number on him at 7-1 this morning.
3:40
B, don't bet the, the match price because if there is either a in-match withdrawal or a withdrawal pre-match, well, all of a sudden that bet is voided, and you, you won't get anything to show for potentially fading, uh, an obviously injured Djokovic.
3:53
But that's the big news of the day here.
3:55
Jannik Sinner in the meantime is serving for the match as we speak, up two sets to none on Grigor Dimitrov, looking to be the first to punch his ticket to the semifinals there on the bottom half of the draw.
4:05
Uh, Carlos Alcaraz, Stefanos Tsitsipas coming up later today, set for about a 2:15 PM Eastern, uh, first serve there at Roland Garros. Uh, that was our big news of the day.
4:14
We also now, Kelly, are coming up on 48 hours until game one of the NBA finals. Feels like we've been waiting a while, and we still have 48, uh, plus hours to go here.
4:22
But, uh, the report this morning from Shams Charania, which, uh, I think you and I would both argue is not really news, [laughs] was just essentially that Kristaps Porziņģis of Boston is, uh, now expected to go in game one Thursday.
4:33
I think anybody, uh, regardless of random gym, empty gym videos we saw, would've expected Porziņģis to go.
4:40
Now the question is at what point, and if, if there is any point, do we see this game one number adjusted all since early money came in on Boston. Yeah. Bet up from five and a half to six and a half.
4:49
For people like you and I, I think, who are each interested in Dallas, especially game one, to me seven is a, a buy point. That's a buy point. Will it get there, now that to me is the question.
5:00
Yeah, I, I think you'll see it. Uh, it might be one of those that, you know, it doesn't last long, though, for whatever book puts it up.
5:06
We don't often talk, uh, talk about key numbers, uh, in basketball, but, um, you know, five through eight. Uh, five through eight you get about 23% of games land in that range, I believe is what the number is.
5:17
So you're kind of always... We, we, we never really talk about it, 'cause you don't really wanna be buying points ever in the NBA. It's never worth it to be buying half points or anything like that.
5:26
But if you look around for where ranges, you know, those type of ranges, you know where you kind of wanna bet if you're taking a dog price or what you wanna lay if you're, uh, betting the favorite.
5:35
Now, we bring up seven, though. You think about it, just possessions. We see, you know, three obviously so important. That's only a one possession game.
5:42
Five we bring up often because that's the three plus the free throws, right? Yep. If you ma- you miss, you're gonna be fouling the center of the team. A free throw, seven's the next level beyond that.
5:51
So seven I'll probably be in lightly, uh, on the Dallas side. If it gets there, I guess I'm not convinced. Ben, you're right. We've already seen this, you know, move a point from the, from the opener.
6:01
But I think there will be... I, I, I think there'll be people laying that with Po- when Porziņģis is officially ruled in.
6:07
Um, I guess to me that Shams report is a little bit more newsworthy today than most, just 'cause I was still really on the fence of- Yeah Like, not trusting we were gonna see Porziņģis till we saw Porziņģis.
6:18
Um, Drew brought up earlier he was factoring kind of 20 minutes a game for, for his series, uh, uh, projections. I, I think that's probably a fair number.
6:27
Again, even w- if he, if he does play, I mean he still hasn't officially been ruled in, so as- assuming r- he does play here, um, assuming he does play here in game one, I, I would still...
6:38
I, I, I don't th- I think that minutes range is probably right where Drew's at. 20 minutes, I think you're still gonna see them ease him into this.
6:44
I know that sounds silly from how much time he's missed and how much time has been between, um, you know, when game one of this is gonna start and when the Eastern Conference Finals ended, but it's still an injury you don't wanna mess around with, and we saw how good Porziņģis was, uh, for this team this year.
6:58
Yeah, you wanna make sure he's at least close to right once you bring him back in- Yeah... full, you know, for a full load.
7:03
And, and that's why I think the most, the newsworthiness of this from us as bettors now is going into the, uh, the player prop market, Kelly, where, you know, you go to his season-long numbers in the, in the regular season for Porziņģis, about a 30-minute-a-game guy, 20 points, seven rebounds, two assists.
7:18
So Porziņģis already for the series was set at 6.3 rebounds per game, but I'm, I'm more interested here in game one, 15 and a half on the points. Uh, and we, we have to kind of dig around here on the DraftKings menu.
7:27
That's why I'm, I'm looking down here to pull this up. Six and a half on the rebounds with pretty good juice to the under. So that's where I now go to.
7:35
And, and if you feel conviction on, all right, y- even if he is in now, game one feels like the, the best game to maybe attack this because- Yeah...
7:43
because of the unknown, and that's the more likelihood of a softer market in this case, do you go ahead and you make that, and you make that bet as things come out that he is going to play, and you at least feel like, well, he's gonna see the floor, just you don't know h- you have no idea how much, and you're willing to bank on just based on historical trends and, and the situation here that it'll, it'll be less than maybe some people think?
8:03
Y- yes. Um, I would say if, if I had to bet there, it would only be unders, right? Yeah. But, but I, I, y- I mean, you can throw my words right back in my face, right?
8:13
I really have no idea what to expect from Porziņģis, right? He's been out for so long, and you don't know, you don't know how, uh, how healthy he is or how, you know, how, how much he's still...
8:22
You know, what percentage is he, is he at? Or, I mean, maybe he's close to 100, Ben, and it was... They just didn't feel like they needed to roll him out against Indiana, right? I, I...
8:31
Maybe he was 80% then, and they're like, "Okay, well, we don't really need him right now." Um, you know, let's say they were up 2-0, 3-0 in that series when they were having this discussion. Uh, I...
8:40
You know, maybe he's had a, you know, a week, uh, here plus, and we'll have way more than a week, uh, to have rest up between then and now. Maybe he is closer to 100%. I, I would still...
8:50
Yeah, I think it's g- I think it's a great point to bring up though because it would still be only an under look for me.
8:54
What, what I would love to see, and he's not up right now on any of these, but DraftKings will post and other books do post the head-to-head prop markets. Yeah. So I would...
9:01
So I think the best way to look at that, because likely you're... You know, the juice is, is gonna be pretty big. It already is minus 125 in the under.
9:08
Let's just look, you know, comb through the rebound market right now. Derrick Lively, also six and a half rebounds, but that's juiced way over.
9:15
Were we to get, say, a Lively versus Porziņģis head-to-head rebounding prop, I would be fascinated as to what they would do on the pricing there. Yeah, me too. Um- Not out yet, um, but that is one I would...
9:26
I'm, I'm, I'm not sure if because of the injury concerns, Kelly, they'll even price Porziņģis that way, but that's the one I would wanna look for that I would see a potential edge. Yeah. It, it...
9:34
I mean, the other thing is d- we can talk the Mavericks' bigs too. I, I mean, you, you always gotta keep in mind they split time, so it's...
9:41
There's not necessarily one guy that's gonna get way more, way, way more time than the other. However, I would expect that Lively do- if p- especially if Porziņģis goes, Lively does see a little bit more action.
9:52
Gafford will still be in the starting lineup. I don't think they're gonna mess around with that starting unit and how well it's done, uh, for them. So Lively kind of one of those first guys off the bench.
10:01
Think he will see more extended minutes i- i- if P- you know, especially if Porziņģis is in there because he's just more athletic than Gafford. He can get out and close out on some of those, you know, three-point line.
10:11
That's where they're gonna drag all these Dallas centers out to. They don't want, they don't wanna let those guys live, live in the paint and protect the rim like they've been doing all series.
10:19
And how does Boston beat you offensively? It is with ball movement. It is with the three ball, and it's with having five guys, uh, out at that three-point line.
10:28
So Lively gives you a little bit more athleticism to go cover whoever might be out there, whether that's Al Horford or Kristaps Porziņģis. So I do think you'll see a little bit more of him.
10:36
But with how much those guys split time, uh, Ben, I, I, I don't know, and I know we're gonna talk, uh, who... You know, the rebounds leader for the series- Yeah... later, right? Do have a bet.
10:44
I just think all those bigs... I... Okay, Porziņģis plays a little bit further away from the basket already, plus if there's any kind of minutes restriction with him.
10:52
And then with Gafford and Lively splitting time, uh, rebounding numbers, I think I'd just be look, I'd be looking at six and a half, like, sounds pretty right to me. Yeah.
10:59
And it's a heavy juice over two, so it's not something I, not something I would wanna bet individually. That's where you look at, and Gafford is also five and a half. He's juiced over too.
11:07
That's where the match-ups would become a lot more fascinating, at least to me, and more enticing, uh, as to a bet.
11:13
The issue is they're not out right now, and maybe for game one, the game we want to potentially target those match-ups against the Porziņģis, not sure they will be because of the injury, uh, question marks.
11:22
Either way, we will continue the game one discussion next.
11:25
I wanna get Kelly's thoughts on the total here, and we'll also talk some of these series props as far as leaders for different categories: points, rebounds, assists. Where's the value at?
11:33
We'll discuss that next and also hit, uh, some of this other sports betting, uh, somewhat breaking news here.
11:37
The, uh, the Toukapeta Marcano news did, uh, just drop here within the last half hour, so we'll mention that as well, uh, since it does relate to our world of sports betting. We'll do that next here on The Numbers Game.
11:54
[upbeat rock music]A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Hour number two continues here on a numbers game from downtown Las Vegas, Bar Canada at the D.
12:06
Big thanks to our crew today behind the scenes, Matt, Larry, Sean, all helping out here. Kelly Bidlin is here.
12:11
We will talk to Paul Spore on Major League Baseball in 15 minutes, where we did get some baseball news that, uh, just dropped, and we're getting some more details about the, uh, the specific betting patterns of Tucupita Marcano.
12:21
If you weren't aware of this already, the, uh, Pittsburgh Pirates infielder, uh, was, uh, under, already under investigation.
12:28
Major League Baseball announces today he is banned for life for betting on baseball, and, uh, this is kind of wild, I mean, Kelly, some of the, uh, the details that come out of this report, placed 387 baseball bets, including 231 on MLB between October of 2022 and November of last year.
12:46
Over $150,000. 25 of those came on Pirate games while he was on the roster. He never played in any of those games because he was injured.
12:54
Uh, but what is wild is that th- those, those bets, all of the 25 bets involving the Pirates, it sounds like these are all parlay bets. They all lost. He hit 4.3% of his MLB related bets. So, I mean, yeah.
13:07
Just 'cause you're playing the game, you're not gonna m- uh, it doesn't translate to you being a great bettor, apparently. I remember Al Michaels in his book said that, uh, 'cause people would...
13:15
He was like, "I get asked all the time, do I bet on the games I'm calling?" And he said, "If I..."
13:19
He wrote, wrote in his book, "If I were to have bet on all the inside info I had gotten from talking to coaches and players, I would've gone bankrupt 30 years ago." [laughs] You know? That is so true, yeah.
13:28
And I mean, it's so, it's so true. Yeah. It is so true. Well- So Tucupita Marcano. There were other, a few other players here who got one-year bans as well. That's gonna go more under the radar.
13:36
Uh, there were three minor leaguers, uh, banned for one year, and then one big leaguer, A's pitcher Michael Kelly, uh, who was b- uh, for betting while he was in the minor league, so he gets a year, uh, ban on that.
13:48
But, uh- Yeah, a lifetime ban really- Yeah... 'cause he bet, he bet on games involving his own team. Right. Correct. Yeah. I mean, that's, that, that's really where that's coming.
13:54
I, I really wish I could sit here and say we're gonna stop s- seeing these types of stories, but- Probably not... I would-- Probably not. We've talked about it a lot.
14:01
There's, you know, w- w- with the legalization and with the sports books connected with these leagues, there's a, a lot more of these, a lot more of these s- situations that are being discovered by some of the monitoring services and brought up.
14:14
So it, it's...
14:15
I know everybody, I feel like the, the direct line, um, as more and more of these stories have come out, it's, it's, "Oh, these guys are betting," like, it, it, but it doesn't mean they weren't doing it before.
14:25
You just have people monitoring this stuff now and actually able to track it. So I, this, uh, unfortunately these stories are gonna keep coming out. No doubt. That's tough for, uh, 4.3% too.
14:34
You're like, don't bet the parlays. Come on. Yeah. Say, say, "Stop bet- The, the, the exotics... stop betting parlays." Stop, stop doing that too. Also, um, that, that's a- Entire nation, stop betting parlays...
14:44
I, I cannot recommend enough that, uh, the book, I think it's called, uh, You Can't Make This Stuff Up by Al Michaels. Great read, Kelly. Oh, I'm sure. Great read. Yeah, I'm sure. Uh, it's a- It's, it's a awesome book.
14:52
Yeah, the insider information. I always love one of Ma- Matt Brown's classic lines too, of the... 'Cause he worked in the UFC world for so long. Yeah.
14:59
It's not like you ever go to a UFC camp, uh, before they're warming up for a fight and you, you never hear a trainer say the guy's having a bad camp. Yeah. You know what I mean?
15:06
It's kind, kind of like the h- kind of like the horse races, right? [laughs] Where it's like, "Oh, the horse looks great." You never hearing the trainer be like, "Eh, he looked okay today. Eh- I know...
15:13
we don't know what to expect out of the derby." I know. It's, uh, yeah, exactly. The, the Michaels book too, he's got some great Howard Cosell stories in there- Oh, okay... which are just wild.
15:20
So yeah, I can- I cannot, uh, recommend that enough. Anyway, back [laughs] back to the NBA finals where we started the discussion on game one last segment. And we did not dive yet into the total here, Kelly.
15:29
As much as I think most people recognize the early spread movement here- Yeah...
15:33
from Boston minus five and a half out to six and a half, I thought a little bit more under the radar and interesting was the total movement here because you have a d- a Dallas team that was number one in the NBA final 15 games of the regular season in defensive rating, carried that over through the postseason, and Boston, who was top two to three in the regular season, the postseason, in all sort of defensive categories, and yet we saw money to the over here, 213 and a half it opened, 214 and a half now, uh, market wide.
15:59
What was your interpretation of the why, uh, behind it? 'Cause I'm trying to figure it out, honestly. I thought this number was, uh, it was pretty spot on. I think you see, uh, it, it didn't draw much interest from me.
16:09
I mean, you do, you do have two extremely efficient offenses going right now as well.
16:13
Um, you know, if Porziņģis get- gets back in there, well, Porziņģis, though, probably a net, uh, a net zero kind of what he brings offensively and defensively, maybe a little bit more offensive.
16:22
Um, it, not, not much, uh, attraction for me. I, I think I always get wrapped up with the totals, a- and this blinds me sometimes, so I just try to avoid it.
16:31
Sometimes these, these early games, I, I think you always look over later games in the series you're looking under. Um, it's, it's kind of the old, the old prizefighter, uh, uh, uh, metaphor, right?
16:42
You're figuring stuff out earl- early in the series, and some guy- some defenses are getting tripped up by what the offenses are throwing at them. Uh, defenses will catch up, pace will slow down, uh, later in the series.
16:53
And I, with Luka Dončić, uh, his usage rate being as high as it is, it's just the game's always gonna move a little bit slower.
17:00
So I, early, early on, Ben, I honestly, I would probably even, uh, this number I have no interest in betting in. I think unders later in the series are something I'll be looking at. Sure.
17:08
Bet that's a good way to, uh, to phrase it on that. Again, Celtics minus six and a half, 214 and a half is your prevailing side in total across the market.
17:16
Really no, uh, disparities there either with how m- with how heavily bet this series is going to be.
17:21
As far as some of the overall series, the, the, the leaders here, whether it's points, rebounds, assists, our Jonathan Vontobel at vsin.com, senior NBA analyst. He's got a big writeup on the full series.
17:31
Some of the prop markets to dive into. Kelly, you have made a bet here on the, uh, the rebounding market.
17:37
We briefly touched on it yesterday, but it's worth revisiting here since, uh, these are kind of the markets that with how heavily bet this stuff is in the NBA finals, Kelly, I feel like is where you get the most value, honestly, uh, with how the pricing can just be wildly variant across different books.
17:50
Yeah, that's the biggest thing.
17:51
I, I was really diving into these on Friday and Saturday, and it just, man, the differences in odds that you were finding, uh, uh, you know, on the series prop markets and, you know, the lead points, lead rebounds, uh, lead assists, there were, there were some wildly different odds from shop to shop.
18:05
So, um- I, uh, I would still obviously you gotta shop around with everything that you talk about. Um, but these are... I think there is some opportunity in some of these.
18:14
Jason Tatum to lead in the, uh, uh, the series in rebounds is a bet I made. Uh, I made it at minus 105. Again, at one, it was 105, uh, at MGM when I bet it. It's 150 at DraftKings.
18:24
I think that number is a little bit more appropriately priced. I... Re- really, Ben, he's just been the most efficient rebounder a- and consistent rebounder of everybody in this series. The next...
18:34
Really the only other guy I'm worried about is Luka Dončić.
18:36
I really, as we kind of talked about last se- uh, last segment, I don't think any of these centers or any of the bigs are gonna be active enough on the glass consistent with their minutes to a- to really factor into this.
18:48
Tatum and Dončić, with how many minutes they're going to play, um, how active they are in rebounding, I think it's really just those two that we're mainly talking about.
18:57
Um, and Tatum is, I, I, I mean, he is, he's been consistent, averaging over 10 rebounds throughout the, uh, throughout the playoffs. We really see that, see him active on the, uh, on the glass, uh, in these bigger games.
19:08
Uh, from JVT, a- as you said, great article up at vsin.com, tw- he grabbed, he's grabbed 24.1% of opponent misses this postseason. That's the highest rate, uh, for the Celtics.
19:18
It's also higher than where Dončić is at, is at 21%.
19:21
Um, so I, uh, with how active, athletic, the match-ups even that he's gonna have, I think lends to this a little bit more too, uh, Ben, where, uh, there's gonna be, uh, uh, bigger, bigger defenders, uh, uh, and some bigger guys on Dončić that could slow him down, uh, but picking up some rebounds, um, on that side of the ball.
19:40
So I really like Tatum here. This is, this is actually my biggest bet, uh, heading into the series. Biggest bet so far. Again, that's minus, up to now 150, minus 150 on Jason Tatum at DraftKings.
19:49
That is, uh, one of really the two markets where it is very, very tightly priced across the board.
19:54
The other one I think is worth diving into is the three-point, uh, three-pointers leader, especially just because you've seen Luka Dončić, who's the favorite at even money, uh, have his struggles.
20:03
There have been a couple games in this postseason run where he has just not had it at all. He, you know, one for eight stretches in, at times in the postseason.
20:10
Jason Tatum, it's been talked about so much, his general career postseason three-point struggles through his first 80 career postseason games, uh, was sitting in at, you know, 25% clip or so, and he's third on the odds board at five to one.
20:23
That's what makes this market, uh, kind of the most random to me of all these- Yeah... where you have Derrick White, plus 250. He's a sharp shooter for Boston. Usage is going to be the question there, and volume.
20:32
And then Kyrie Irving sitting at seven to one. Uh, four guys who you could, you know, depending on the, the combination of usage and effectiveness, you could talk yourself into all four of them, I would say.
20:40
I, I think this one's really fascinating. I... And I made a bet here as well. A- again, shopping around. I bet, I bet on Tatum here, but I found him at nine to one, uh, which is obviously very different- Yeah...
20:48
than five to one. Um, and, uh, so let, let's go through all the, all the ca- uh, Kyrie, I don't really think he's got much of a case.
20:55
I don't think he's gonna get up the number of, uh, the number of shots, the number, the number of shots that will compare to Luka or Tatum, right?
21:01
With how many threes they'll be getting up volume wise, and he's not gonna get the open looks that Derrick White is. So Derrick White, I'm not gonna say is m- is mispriced.
21:10
The vol- the number of threes that he gets up to compare to, compared to Tatum and Dončić is going to be way lower, but the assumption is Derrick White's gonna have far more open looks at these threes than the other two.
21:22
And if he's shooting above 40%, like he has during the playoffs, yeah, I think you could make an argument for that. I think, uh, I think Dustin Swedelson was in on the, uh, on him for this market.
21:31
Um, uh, I, I think Tatum's live, though. With how many he puts up, and, Ben, I can't...
21:36
This is one of those, I just can't get out of my mind, uh, over the past several years, how many big-time Celtics games, big-time Celtic series, when you want Tatum to attack, be a little bit more active, and he just settles for that, that, uh, for that three ball.
21:53
I've seen it so many times, and if he's putting up close to nine, 10, 11 attempts a game, li- like he has been in dur- during some of these big series, I'll, I'll roll the dice on that at nine to one.
22:02
I think there is a chance that he comes through with that. I think if you look f- uh, uh, b- like Kyrie Irving would be a complete toss-out for me. Porziņģis, where we're- Yeah, no way...
22:10
we're kind of unknown with him right now. I think you, the next guy I'd probably make an argument for is- PJ... uh, PJ Washington, right?
22:16
If, we kind of saw it during the Thunder series, if, if Luka's kind of able to collapse that defense on the interior a bit, like he could be similar to the same argument for Derrick White.
22:26
He might get a lot of open looks out there. Um, I'm not expecting as many, but that's where I'd probably be going is I'd probably be looking at, at...
22:33
I think you could look Tatum is, that's what I bet, or I think you could go further down the board here. And Washington is 25 to one in that market.
22:41
Still to come, we'll break down the college baseball super regionals, and up next, Major League Baseball with Paul Spohrer of FanGraphs when we come back.
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23:13
Wager on your favorite horses, then watch the races live right in the app. Download the DK Horse app right now. Back at the numbers game, final two segments for us with Kelly Bidlin. I'm Ben Wilson.
23:22
We're about to go out to the progressive guest line. Welcome in our guy Paul Spohrer from FanGraphs. We were just discussing our, uh, sorry, our general, uh, beverage strategies, Kelly.
23:30
And, um, I don't know, I- You, you non-caffeine people, I just don't know how you do it. Are, are us non-caffeine? I, I- I don't, I don't drink caffeine.
23:36
That was the big, uh, the, the breaking news of the last, uh, commercial break on... If you have a VSiN++ subscription and, and watch our, uh, our commercial breaks. That's right. You guys are superheroes. You're super.
23:46
I, I always remember, uh, I remember, uh, what you got hot, you got hot chocolate in there, right? Hot ch- That's what, that's what Amal Shah used to do as well.
23:50
This is, this is, uh, this is Swiss Miss with some, uh, half-and-a, with a lot of half-and-half. Ew. [laughs] Thank God. It's so good. I didn't realize there was half-and-half in the hot chocolate. Okay.
23:59
[laughs] Well, no, you add your own. You- Oh, okay. Okay. It's g- it's so good. It's so creamy, and it just, it's nice. I'm a 10-year-old, basically.
24:06
Um, I, I- That's what I would know Amal would say that he'd be like 10-hour poker sessions, and he'd be like, "I gotta mo- I gotta monitor how many cups of hot chocolate I have." And I'd be like- Yeah...
24:13
"Well, what are you talking about, kids? Is there's, is there too many?" There is apparently too many I'm also my spirit ani- animal on that Yeah.
24:19
I also, I pi- I picture Paul Spoor as a guy who's not afraid to just order, like, the fruitiest drink out, out to dinner and just own it. That's... I don't know. Paul, you can correct me if I'm wrong.
24:27
[laughs] That's what I, I- Like a umbrella drink guy?... I envision you as that sort of guy. Absolutely accurate. Why not? If it tastes great- Sweet...
24:34
I'm all, I'm all about it, especially because I don't really drink alcohol anyway. So if it's just gonna taste good, all, all the better. Thank you. Yeah, I'm, I'm all about that.
24:43
But I do respect your, your caffeine-free diet. Uh, I drink Red Bull by the gallon. It's, it's terrible, but I love it.
24:51
Well, look, Paul does have a whole Twitch audience to, uh, you know, uh, to, to, you know- Exactly... to acquiesce to. He's always...
24:57
I mean, I feel like you're up on live streaming on all, at all hours of the day, so I... you have a good excuse, uh, baked in for it. Anyway. I'm, I'm big on... I'm high on the, uh, Prime energy drinks. Prime. Okay.
25:07
Yes, yes. I heard those are fantastic. That, that's my new... I used to be a Red Bull guy myself, Paul. I'm a committed sugar-free Red Bull-er, but I've heard Prime is pretty tasty. It, it's good.
25:15
Well, I think the problem with a lot of energy drinks are, are the, are the horrible aftertaste like a lot of them have. Yeah. And, and Prime doesn't have that at all. Right.
25:22
Well, that's why, yeah, I, I'm a noted, uh, scarred from collegiate experiences on Red Bull guy. That's why, you know. Yeah. Under- Maybe mixed with some- Understandable there... mixed with some other stuff. Yeah.
25:30
[laughs] Um, anyway, uh, happy, uh, June, by the way, Paul. We've, we've gotten here a couple months now. Can't believe it.
25:35
Uh, it i- it is wild here, and, and just kind of looking at the, at the overall scene of, uh, of Major League Baseball as we always get that talk of, you know, regression, positive versus, uh, negative.
25:44
Who are kind of... Like, if you just look, because I know you do a lot of the fantasy, the DFS. Individually, who are kind of your leaders right now, both to the positive and the negative?
25:52
If we just look at this from a, a macro perspective, just the first couple names that pop into your head.
25:57
Well, I mean, somebody like Ranger Suárez is, you know, kind of pitching like the best pitcher in baseball right now. I don't quite think he's that. I'm never one to just invalidate a player's run as luck.
26:07
I think that's really easy for some dweeb, uh, who plays fantasy baseball to, to, you know, discount an amazing 74 inning run. Like, "Well, he's just lucky because of his BABIP being so low."
26:18
Like, he is doing things to influence that BABIP there. I don't think everything is just happening around Ranger Suárez. He's pitching some of his best baseball. We've seen it before.
26:27
The 106 inning run of, of 2021 was amazing as well, uh, where he took advantage of a, a light schedule and, and pitched some of his best baseball. So he's been great.
26:37
But 170 ERA, 080 whip, it's just not gonna hold at that level. It w- I would say the same for, uh, like a healthy Gerrit Cole or a Corbin Burnes. Most guys aren't gonna hold that level.
26:47
Those are your special seasons, your DeGroms, your Kershaw. Your top, top tier guys can have them. I don't think that, uh, Ranger Suárez is gonna necessarily have that.
26:56
I think on the other end, unless it comes out that he's hurt, which at this point I'm starting to think that he is, but unless he comes out as just completely hurt and trying to play through it, there's no world where Corbin Carroll's this bad.
27:07
I just... You know, sophomore slump, I get. That stuff happens. This is on another level, and I'm gonna go to the BABIP again. And I don't just only rely on that, but it's been... it's telling with both these players.
27:18
You know, Ranger Suárez running a really tight BABIP. With the way he's been pitching, you keep the bases clean, it's easier to do good work.
27:24
With Corbin Carroll, he's not able to flex the speed that he does have, even if the power is compromised, because the hits just aren't falling.
27:31
237 BABIP, almost 100 points lower than last year's 325, and he's the type of guy who can run something in the mid... uh, in, in kind of the lower to mid threes there when he's going hot.
27:42
So unless the shoulder is just completely destroyed and he is playing at, like, literally 75, 80%, you gotta think Corbin Carroll is gonna be better too.
27:51
So those are two guys, one on the high end, one on the low end, that, that jump out as me that have to change their performance as the season goes.
27:58
One, just natural regression on Suárez, and the other, a return of a star hopefully. Yeah. Two great names. Yeah, Carroll in Arizona, it's just been a, a struggle in general.
28:05
It's, it's like you take out Ketel Marte and you're like, "Where is the offense coming out here for the Diamondbacks?" Absolutely. Suárez.
28:10
It's funny too you bring up the NL Cy Young just because Suárez is third on that odds board right now at five to one.
28:15
Another guy with just sparkling numbers, you know, like with Shōhei Imanaga, you don't want to dismiss what he's doing because he's, he's- Exactly... a veteran.
28:21
He's pitched before overseas, comes to Chicago, and has been amazing so far. Uh, he's plus 350, your second favorite behind the Philly's Zach Wheeler, who was outstanding again last night at plus 225.
28:32
Imanaga's kind of in that same boat where, like, you watch the arsenal, right? Like, the stuff's there, and you, you, you can see where the success is coming. You can also acknowledge- Absolutely...
28:40
yeah, you know, sub one ERA, probably not likely for a full season. Exactly. I mean, what, what Imanaga's been doing has been fantastic.
28:47
He didn't quite get as much fanfare as Yamamoto coming over, and understandably too. That's nothing, uh, against Imanaga, but he's coming over at age 30 as more of a mid-rotation type guy.
28:56
Yamamoto's coming over to be an ace, so the expectation sets were different. Well, Imanaga's been pitching like an ace, and Yamamoto, since the blowup in Korea, has been quite fantastic himself.
29:07
With Imanaga, the biggest question was home runs, and we still haven't quite seen, you know, when Wrigley is at, at her worst and, and the wind's blowing out like crazy, how will he survive?
29:15
He has a 7% home run to fly ball, and again, that's a number that I don't believe is necessarily sustainable. But that doesn't mean that it's necessarily been lucky either, 'cause again, that dismisses the player a bit.
29:26
But I do wonder how well he can hold that, because he hasn't changed his fly ball profile. Imanaga still gives up 48% fly balls, which is a ton. Yeah.
29:34
The homers will eventually come, and that'll probably be the biggest regression for him, but I believe in the strikeouts and I believe in the control. So even Imanaga's regression should be pretty strong.
29:44
That said, guys like Suárez and Imanaga are not the types I go for in the Cy Young, because I'm trying to find the person that's gonna build that summer narrative.
29:52
Uh, if anything, a- as far as a, an award season goes, those two are probably peaking too early, because the narratives are a big part of it, whether they should be or not.
30:01
And you're, you're buying very, very high on that, on that price as well- Exactly... as Paul Spoor joins us @spoor, a writer for FanGraphs joining us here on A Numbers Game.
30:08
As we transition to the daily card, this also goes into sort of the regression talk.
30:12
I feel like us, uh, fantasy nerds for multiple years now, we just keep banging the Patrick Sandoval drum of, like, the stuff is so good. I know. When is the regression gonna turn?
30:20
Again this year, over five ERA, but all the underlying numbers suggest he should be so much better. How about this, Paul?
30:26
Tonight for the Angels, and I realize the Angels are just awful right now, but Sandoval is a home dog to somebody named Adam Mazur, who's making his Major League debut tonight for the Padres, who had a 711 ERA in triple A.
30:38
Like, is, is- Yes...
30:38
if this is not rock bottom for Sandoval with the, with the market value, I don't really know what is Yeah, and he, he's so frustrating, and he kind of reminds you of another lefty who they just sent down in Reed Detmers.
30:48
You can see no hit stuff on any given night, and then other nights where a demotion to triple A looks viable. Like, I understand why Detmers was sent out.
30:56
I think Sandoval's maybe put a, a few more innings on, on the, on his ledger to avoid that fate. But it's still so frustrating because I, I...
31:05
This is a guy I've believed in for years now, but I'm just starting to realize that is the price of the inconsistency of his control, right?
31:11
Is that he has tantalizing enough stuff to be a quality major leaguer, and in that, I mean, you know, like a fourth, fifth starter who can earn $12 million a year, eating up, you know, 150 innings. That's great.
31:22
But I don't believe that there's necessarily going to be a turn with Sandoval. I, I, I've been projecting it for years, but this is just where his command is.
31:29
Unless he links with somebody that really helps him up the level of where his command is, I think this is just gonna be kind of who he is.
31:36
That said, that means there's a lot of great starts, and I, I will be interested in trying to, like, pluck the, the interesting spots for him. You would think that he'd be a bigger dog against a...
31:46
Or a bigger favorite against a, somebody making their major league debut, but that speaks partly on him and partly on the Angels as a whole.
31:53
I, I don't mind messing with him, but just go in eyes wide open any time you go with Sandoval that a bomb out- No doubt... is very possible. No question on that. This is Paul Sporner joins us right now.
32:01
Any plays for you today, Paul? Anything that jumps out here on the card? No, I haven't, I haven't taken the full look at the card.
32:08
I was looking more on the DFS front today, and there are a lot of interesting, uh, top pitchers going, depending on which, which field you're playing. But, like, it's kind of a stud day. I love, you know...
32:18
I'm, I'm somebody who's down to pay for, like, the Tyler Glasnow's of the world. I don't mind paying for that premium pitching.
32:23
Obviously, it depends on the kind of contest that you're playing, but you got Glasnow, Burns, Kirby, the aforementioned Imanaga, Max Fried, Luis Hill, Carter Crawford, Jared Jones, and Jack Flaherty all pitching today.
32:33
All those guys have been fantastic. So I'm probably paying up for pitching.
32:36
If you are trying to pivot and get really cute with it, you might be looking at, like, a Mitch Spence against those, uh, Mariners that are striking out like crazy. David Peterson against a, a game Nats team.
32:46
They, they, they've been a frisky little bunch, but still not a team that I'm terribly afraid of. So David Peterson, Mitch Spence might be some guys I pivot to if I'm trying to get in- Nice...
32:54
cheap on pitching, or even Sandoval, 'cause he, he'll give you some upshot, but just know that he can give you a negative five as well. Yeah, that is always possible in, in the cards.
33:02
Ryan Pepiot is the other guy at least I had- Yes, love Pep... targeted for today. I, I, I, like, against Miami too on the road. Can't, uh, get enough of some Pepiot there in the race today.
33:10
Yeah, what an outstanding pitching matchup. Glasnow for the Dodgers, Jared Jones for the Pirates. Can't wait. That'll be a lot of fun. A total there of seven and a half or eight, depending on where you shop.
33:18
He's Paul Sporner. Follow him @Sporner. I always learn so much whenever we have you on, Paul, so appreciate the time as always, man. Be well. Thanks so much, guys. Take care. We have one more segment to get to, Kelly.
33:27
College baseball super regionals. Prices are now out for all eight supers matchups. We'll talk about our early thoughts on those as the market starts to mature and wrap up the show with our best bets right after this.
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34:03
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34:14
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34:23
I'm sort of distracted, Kelly, because I was going down this rabbit hole after a tweet we got from, uh, from Brian here. He, he goes- Okay...
34:27
I know a parlay is a dirty word, but barring injury, am I crazy for wanting a gold medal, uh, Olympic parlay of Djokovic to win the, the men's Olympics, Swiatek to win the, uh, women's Olympics, and then Scheffler and Korda in both the golf?
34:39
And I'm diving in now to the, uh [laughs]... I've just quickly- Trying to see what the price is on that? Well, I... No, no, not that.
34:43
I just quickly pull- I'm pulling up 2018 Ryder Cup because that was at, uh, Le Golf National, which is where they're gonna play the, uh, the Olympic golf. So I'm just...
34:51
I'm going back to, like, refreshing my memory here, some of the, uh, like when, like when McIlroy and Thorbjorn Olesen just pounded DJ and Ricky, uh, four and two. So where does that fall on the, on the PGA Tour scale?
35:04
Okay, now you're making me go down a rabbit hole. Yeah, I know. Um [laughs] I know. Interesting.
35:08
You know who led, you know who led the, uh, the US in points that 2018 Ryder Cup at the venue they'll play the, uh, the Olympic golf at? Who? Who went four and one in five matches, one Justin Thomas. Okay.
35:20
So- Yeah, I'm actually surprised at how many- And, uh-... questions I've gotten about, uh- Yeah. If you're wondering who led every... [laughs] You know, if, uh... This w- this would be a long shot.
35:27
If you, if you want to know who led every, all, uh, all Ryder Cup golfers that year in points, it was the, uh, great Francesco Molinari, went 5 and 0 that year. Oh, yeah. I actually do. Uh, yeah.
35:36
Fleetwood went four and one, uh, for four points, so that could be a pop- I, I'm sure that'd be a popular- So you have this Olympics will be two weeks after the Open that's playing, right? Uh, it is...
35:48
Yes, August 1st through the 4th. So the men's goes first, then the women's goes second. Oh, okay. The 7th through the 10th. Yeah. And it's the top 60. Uh, yeah, there's, I, there's, uh... I was just reading an article.
36:01
There's all this, this whole individual qualification patterns here. It's the top 60, and, uh, who knows now with, I mean, the, on the, especially on the men's side, the qualification process that goes in.
36:10
'Cause this is our first [laughs] Olympic golf. I mean, we've only had a couple Olympic golf events, uh, but the first one now, of course- What do we have, two now?... since the, uh... Yes, two.
36:17
What, did Justin Rose one, right, in, uh, in Brazil? With Schauffele, right? And then Schauffele in, uh, in Japan, yeah, in that cr- insane, like, nine-way playoff, which was awesome. Oh, my God.
36:27
I, it was ama- Uh- It, he got so little credit for that. Like, I- Yeah. I know it's not a major, and majors are always gonna be on their own, but it, it's just amazing. That was a really fun tournament. I know.
36:36
It was a really fun tournament. A fun course. Yeah. And it's amazing how, how much we've talked about Schauffele over the years, and to just, like, kind of dismiss that win as a win. We just forget in Olympics. Yeah.
36:44
Yeah. It's sort of like how, uh, yeah, I mean, we... It's the same deal with the tennis stuff, like the random, you know, the, the random winners, like Monica Puig winning an Olympics. Mm-hmm.
36:53
She pro- pfft, don't, she doesn't get any credit for that just 'cause it's an Olympics. It's not a, uh, a Grand Slam. But anyway, that's August 1st is when the men start there at, uh, Le Golf National.
37:01
That's a good, uh, question from Brian. I mean- That, that is g- I'm, I'm actually- Not that I would bet, but...
37:04
surprised how much interest there is, like, I've gotten a fair amount of questions about Olympics golf, but I think Ben just gave you a better breakdown than we...
37:10
We haven't touched down in really much at all on Long Shots. My 30 second, uh- Yeah, exactly. [laughs]... Wikipedia looking up the 2018 Ryder Cup. Yeah, but well, that's the, that's where you would start.
37:18
I mean, you were playing the same course. I di- Yeah... I think that is ex- extremely important to, uh, take a pe- uh, take a peek at that.
37:23
The, uh, on my bets to make a to-do list, uh, Ben, I will say Xander Schauffele top 10 this week is something I will be adding. Uh, we did get a couple shops that finally posted in town.
37:34
I think I gotta wait for a couple more 'cause these, uh, the prices have adjusted finally on Xander Schauffele top 10. Oh, they have adjusted.
37:40
Uh, I think it's only like -110 at, at DraftKings, but keep in mind that's a dead heat shop. Uh, here in town, the best I could find non-dead heat was- Oh, don't, don't say it... -145.
37:50
So I haven't, I haven't had to, I haven't had to, uh, go m- uh, past even money so far on him this year, so that was, uh, that might be tough, but I'll probably still be betting that.
37:59
And then how about a horse bet already for this weekend? We t- we did the read at the beginning. I bet, uh, Sierra Leone. You did bet Sierra Leone, like 95? Bet Sierra, the surf has just posted.
38:06
Uh, they, no, I got them two to one. Nice. Sierra Leone, final leg of the Triple Crown this weekend. I- Belmont Stakes from Saratoga... I'm gonna say first time ever in my life that I bet a horse on opening odds- Yeah...
38:17
at a fixed odds shops too. I mean, not that I bet- Seriously... anywhere else, but yeah. Right. I'm in already.
38:22
Also, I'm doing some, at least just looking at DraftKings, I don't see anything, uh, no Olympics odds up yet, so gotta wait, but. Oh, yeah. Good point. I'm gonna file that away.
38:30
JT, uh, J- if JT's form, uh, is a long shot. Man, he's been up and down this year. Yeah, he has been very, very up and down. It's like, ask me in a [laughs] basically ask us in six weeks- Right. Yeah. [laughs]...
38:40
where, where, uh, where JT is at, um. I mean, he, there have been times where he has looked great this year, and there are times he has looked absolutely, like, he's lost his game.
38:47
So I, I don't even know where to say- Yeah... he's at right now. Uh, as we close the show here, we have slowly, we're waiting from, for DraftKings to post these, but, uh, MGM has posted, a couple other shops have.
38:57
We are- We got futures up. We do have futures at DraftKings now for the final eight teams. We can show those. Tennessee is your favorite, and the reason why, they were already a top two power rated team coming in.
39:06
They host the, the one four seed who advanced to Super Regionals. So to refresh here, Super Regionals, it is best two of three now.
39:14
It is hosted by the, the higher seeds who have, who've gone through their own, uh, their own regional here. So Tennessee is the number one overall seed. They are three to one favorites to win it all.
39:23
They get Evansville, and I'm seeing Tennessee, I joked earlier that- Wait, how many teams left, Ben? Uh, eight teams. Or six, sorry, 16 teams. Six, six t- It's eight, eight Super Regionals. Right. Okay, okay. Yeah.
39:32
So 16- So down to the final eight supers, yeah, the elites... and then we'll be eight teams once we go to College World Series. Eight make it to Omaha. Okay. Yeah, for the College World Series.
39:39
I was joking with you earlier on, uh, you wanna lay seven, minus 750 with Tennessee to beat Evansville? And you're like, "No," and then I look at the odds. It's actually minus 1000.
39:46
[laughs] So it's even higher than I thought. Evansville plus 525. Texas A&M, your second choice right now at plus 310. Uh, they are a $5 favorite against Oregon, uh, who is plus 325.
39:56
Oregon was the three seed to come out of the Santa Barbara Regional. So we had a, we had a bunch of teams, uh, who came out that were, that were three seeds.
40:04
Uh, UConn is plus 260 against your Florida State Seminoles, who are the third betting favorite. That's right. Florida State, big favorites. They host minus 375.
40:12
So that's why Florida State, you know, Florida State, A&M, and Tennessee, they get, uh, they get all seeds who are third or lower in their respective regional now coming to their ballpark getting to host.
40:22
So that is part of why the odds are so short there. Oh, interesting. Okay. Um, j- I mean, they already- So relatively easy draw, though. Exactly. Of, of... Okay. They, they do get a pretty simple draw.
40:30
The one that stands out to me so far, and- Does this really shake things up, Ben? 'Cause I mean, you're talking, uh, add that on with the teams that have already been knocked out, right?
40:38
That you were expecting to make it this far. Yeah. Man, this, yeah, this futures board's really shifting. I mean, f- five of the top 10 preseason teams have already been knocked out.
40:47
I mean, Wake Forest was preseason number one. Arkansas goes down. Uh, they, they lose in their own regional. Vanderbilt was, uh, was two and out.
40:55
Bunch of teams that, uh, just did not show up at all in, uh, in regionals that are now done.
41:00
So the one that stands out, and we're again waiting for more odds to, to populate here, but they are going to be an underdog price.
41:06
I've seen them in the two books I've shopped here as high as plus one, just updating this, Kelly, plus 162, is the team that was the runner-up last year, the Florida Gators, who were by all accounts awful. Boo.
41:19
Gator boo. They were a- I know. I, I'm sorry. And they, they unfortunately, uh, knocked out Kelly's Oklahoma State Cowboys yesterday. Florida was awful. They were 28 and 27.
41:29
You could, I, you don't, we don't know, NCAA baseball does not do the whole last four in thing like the committee does- Right... for college basketball, but they were definitely in the last four in.
41:37
They might've been the last team in. You go 28 and 27 in baseball, you, in college baseball, you usually don't make the postseason, but they had the number one strength of schedule. You play in the SEC.
41:46
You have pedigree. You have arguably one of the m- the most dynamic two-way players in the sport right now in Jack Hagglon. And, and this is a group that limps their way into regionals.
41:56
They had a 628 team ERA, which was 58 out of the 64 teams that made the tournament.
42:01
Uh, shout out to our friends at College Baseball Insiders who put together all the advanced stats on this, our guy, uh, Matt Grissom and, uh- Awesome website. Matt will be on with us tomorrow...
42:08
and, and I think there's Matt on with us tomorrow. Uh, so Florida barely gets in, but then they, they win the regional, and now they're taking on Clemson here, uh, who has been very, very good.
42:17
They just snapped a 14-year drought getting to supers, but, like, two of their three wins were by a single run, and their leading pitcher here, who has been awesome, is a freshman in Aidan Knack.
42:28
And I just wonder in a super regional format against a super battle-tested team who is getting hot at the right time and whose bats have really started to heat up in Florida, how Knack is going to fare in a moment that is on another level than anything he's experienced so far, at least starting out this, uh, best, you f- you assume he'll start the, the first game of the two of three series here, uh, for Knack and Clemson.
42:49
The other element of this, so Florida, I mentioned how they had a really bad team ERA over six, but the, the advanced stats say they really should have had fared better than they actually did.
43:00
It was an expected fielding independent pitching of 481 compared to a 628 ERA. So there was always some positive regression here baked in for Florida.
43:08
We just didn't see it, and I get the, the guys who've watched college baseball, baseball all year are gonna say, "Look, this team is not any good. They have Cag Leone, and it's just a bunch of randos."
43:16
But- No, the guy who was batting in the three hole yesterday- Well-... had b- like, p- played in, like, three games this season. They, they, [laughs] yes, Florida, it's been a very random year.
43:23
They beat Oklahoma State yesterday with three relievers, like it was a bullpen game.
43:27
When I see that and I see pedigree, I naturally think back to teams in a, in a conference like the SEC, which is the best conference in college baseball, that have done this before.
43:36
I mean, it, it reminds me a lot of what, n- you know, not necessarily to the high degree, but what Ole Miss did a few years ago.
43:41
It was 100 to one coming into the postseason, arguably shouldn't have even gotten in, but they did. They had pedigree. They had talent. They made a deep run.
43:48
Florida has all those same, uh, metrics and, and at least benchmark type things they've done in the past. Great coach. Not that, that's not how much that matters. With the talent.
43:55
Uh, really good coach, Kevin O'Sullivan, a former Clemson assistant, by the way, going back to Clemson, where they go on the road there. They've made supers 10 of his 17 years now.
44:05
That is a dog, depending on price, I'm going to be very interested in. Again, the, the longest I see is plus 162, but Florida, to me, that's the one team, Kelly, I've identified here for the supers. Makes sense.
44:15
Bat's getting hot at the right time, right? Yeah. They are. I, that's, that's what it was very apparent the last couple games I watched. This has been a blast, Kelly, as always with you. We've done all we can do.
44:23
If you're listening on radio, GoJo and Golic is next. If you're watching here on VSAN, Best Best, Best Bets is next right after this. [upbeat music]
A Numbers Game
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