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Jun 5, 2024
A Numbers Game | June 5, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | June 5, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game right here on VSiN from downtown Las Vegas, and our, our setup here, it's Bar Canada at the D. I'm Ben Wilson. One more day in for Gil Alexander, who's off the rest of the week.
0:20
Kelly Bidlin, though, is here. We're watching live French Open. We have the Memorial starting tomorrow, which we're gonna break down in a second. Also tomorrow, NBA Finals gets underway.
0:28
College baseball super regionals will start later this week, so a lot for us to, uh, to get to here, and kind of build up to, Kelly, with, uh, with, with a couple of dead, uh, so to speak, sports betting days here with, uh, this hour.
0:38
Matt Grissom coming up in a half hour. He'll break down all the super regionals. I do have one bet I've made there on a dog in the supers for their series price. Jason Weingarten on Major League Baseball.
0:47
Uh, he has, uh, as we're, we're teasing this here, Kelly, he's got a AL Rookie of the Year bet, uh, that he, uh, has been talking about here for some time, that he will reveal to us in a little bit, see what he's betting on Major League Baseball as well today.
0:58
I did get one question here, uh, from Brian, Kelly, asking, "Is it a good bet, is it a good bet to make Luka Dončić to record a double-double every game of the NBA Finals? He's -205 Game 1.
1:08
DK is offering +550," which is an interesting thought, because you would figure Dončić will be an over $2 favorite in every game to record a double-double.
1:16
I just don't know that the math checks out, and even if you assume this only goes five games, and you put in -205 on a Moneyline parlay, you're getting, it's, like, +670, so. Yeah.
1:25
Uh, but you want a little more bang for your buck, and that's, uh, that's [laughs] only if the series goes five. If r- if it goes six, you're talking minus, or you're talking, like, +880, 9 to 1. Yeah.
1:34
So probably just roll that over, as much as we, uh, you know, as much as that's not sexy, but thought that's a good question, though.
1:39
Yeah, I know there's, uh, I know there were some shops out there, and I don't know if some of these are, like, parlayable, but, like, you could also play, uh...
1:46
Parlayable, I also don't know if that's a word, but I'm- I think that is... I, I've used it plenty of times before on the air. [laughs] Clark Kellogg, Clark Kellogg would be proud of you. [laughs] Parlayable.
1:53
Um, the, I know there's some shops where you could, you could do, like, series averages and stuff like that- Yeah...
1:58
and you can, like, ladder down on 'em, so you could, you know, maybe parlay, like, over four and a half assists in rebounds or something for the entirety of the series. Yeah, so.
2:08
And you're, you know, you know, you're gonna g- it's still gonna be, you know, minus two, d-, uh, minus 150 or minus $2- Right... or something like that. I don't even know what, what the odds are set at.
2:17
But I, I've heard a couple people discussing those. I think with Luka and Tatum, there are a couple of those you could, you could get a little frisky with if you wanted to. I think that makes sense, yeah.
2:26
I s- it just leads into my jealousy of the, where you're able to parlay- Yeah... these, like, wild things. Like, I was
2:32
tr- trying to find parlayable, uh, books for super regional prices, 'cause y- we have a lot of, there were a lot of, uh, Cinderellas that made it, combined with a lot of the, the heavyweights, so you've got some pretty, pretty tough-to-bet single series on their own.
2:45
You know, we joked about Tennessee yesterday being a minus 1,000 favorite, and I was looking to fi, you know, could I parlay, like, A&M in a series price, and none of the books here let you do it, so oh well.
2:53
Let's hit that real quick. Like, you, 'cause you do have a bet here. You, you do have a bet in college sports here. Yeah, uh, Florida. Pl- I found that +172, uh, Westgate with the best offering on that.
3:02
I, I believe there are other books. If you shop around, you can find as good as +162 in the market. DraftKings +135. I, I wouldn't play this anywhere, um, anywhere i- at that range.
3:11
It'd be, you know, plus 150 or, or better I would need to have to make that play where, and, uh, shout out to, uh, Trip Tepper, one of our, our loyal viewers, who, uh, who pa- has a Florida 70 to 1 ticket to win it all- Whew...
3:22
that he made right before the tournament got underway. So, uh, with how they, they advanced as a three seed, they were the, arguably the last team in, certainly one of the last four teams in.
3:32
Uh, but that is one I do like over Clemson. I thought Clems- Clemson really played with fire in their regional. They won two of the three games by a single run, and they were a team that really relied on the long ball.
3:42
Over 100 homers hit, which is 15th out of the 64 NCAA tournament teams, but they were just 32nd in WRC+. That's a, a stat we get courtesy of collegebaseballinsiders.com.
3:52
Matt Grissom, one of those contributors, will join us here in a little bit on the show.
3:55
But with the combination of that, the, all the close games they've played this season, it wasn't just the regional, this extended to the regular season.
4:03
Having a freshman as your number one pitcher, who's been awesome, Aiden Knack. I just wonder how he holds up in an environment like this now in a super regional, who has a 296 ERA, a very, very good freshman season.
4:13
But against now red hot Florida team, who you always beware, Kelly, the, the SEC team who had high preseason expectations that fell flat on their face through the regular season, limped in, and now is catching fire.
4:24
I still have arguably the most, the most exciting player to watch in college baseball, Jack Cagliano, is a, a two-way guy who's, uh, his numbers this year, 414 average, 30 homers- Yeah, that's not bad... for Cagliano.
4:34
It's not bad. And also, he's their Friday night starter. So, uh, it's a, also a situation where their head coach, Kevin Sullivan, back to where he was a former assistant at, at Clemson there.
4:44
Uh, 10 years in the supers out of 17 for O'Sullivan and Florida. Last year's College World Series runners-up. So Florida, uh, +172, the bet for me.
4:53
Uh, shop around, try to find that, uh, you can find that over +150 at a number of shops. Uh, it is, it is getting bet, though. It's down to +135 in some places. Yeah, I tried to, uh, wanted to set you up to talk to that.
5:03
I was trying to figure out if I could find anywhere where you could parlay these super regional series prices. Not the best of thing. I- I don't think so, though.
5:09
I, all the books that I just tried East Coast, uh, sorry, think you're S- I, well, we'll ask, uh, we'll ask Matt on that when he comes on, 'cause I know he parlayed, he did some parlays with regional winners. Oh, okay.
5:19
And he was able- Yeah... now Matt's, there's some few outs and he's in Arkansas, but, uh, we'll ask Matt on that, because I think he, he would know. Yeah, I just tried a few of the big ones.
5:26
I, uh, look, this is where, where betting manners and your friends have to come into play. I hope you win your bet, Ben, but I'm not gonna be that upset if, uh, the Gators lose. Well, shocking. You know?
5:35
It's Florid- Florida State, the noted Florida State alum, Ben Wilson. I, I, I'm rooting for you to win your bet first, though. We're rooting for that first. No, I know. I'm aware. I don't have money on the other side.
5:42
You shouldn't, you shouldn't ha- you shouldn't have to root for, you know, Florida to lose. Plus, like, it's never bad watching Clemson go down either, so yeah. Right. Right. There's also that too.
5:51
Yeah, you, you know, allegiances all over the place. Um, we'll talk more college baseball in a little bit. It is a good golf week though, the Memorial. Great golf week. Yeah. Great golf week.
5:59
Fresh episode of Long Shot's out right now for the deeper dive here, Kelly, with Wes Reynolds. Uh, as we will see, after last year, it was a, a playoff. Victor Hovland with a really exciting win in this.
6:09
We've had some great moments at the Memorial over the years, uh, Kelly, and, uh, now here we go. It's, uh, it's, it's a purse up to 4 million, and a very, very, um, highly touted event every single year.
6:20
Jack Nicklaus, uh, Jack Nicklaus' club, basically, at, uh, at, uh, Muirfield Village, where Jack's had so many great memories there.
6:26
So where did you start just, uh, from the, the, you know, the general handicapping perspective here this week on a tournament that has a whole lot of big names in it? Yeah, it, it does. Big time event.
6:34
We're an elevated field, so we are, last check, 73 players, uh, in this field. This will be, uh, we got one of... This is one of three this year with an interesting cut line. So it is, it's one of these elevated events.
6:45
There is a cut line, though. It is gonna be top 50 in ties, and then also if you're 10 shots within the lead. So [laughs] it could be top 50 tie. It could be the bulk of the field maybe get cut.
6:54
We've had, yeah, we've had that a couple times, right, where- Yeah, we've had it a couple ti- we've had it a couple times. Honestly, Ben, more guys have ended up getting cut than I think I expected.
7:01
Um, so it's always, it's always interesting trying to get a feel for that in the first year of them doing it. So I...
7:06
Ma- big, big thing, whether you're playing DFS betting this week, keep that in mind for sure, um, of what that cut line is at. Uh, we're at Muirfield Village. This is my, one of my favorite courses.
7:17
I, I was, we were talking about it yesterday, Ben. I actually think this might be, like, I love the players. This might be my f- my favorite tournament, like, of the non-majors to watch. Yeah.
7:27
There's always, so there's- It's just- And the thing about the drama we've had over the years- Yes... whether it was, remember where Rahm tests positive for COVID? It was crazy, yeah. At, with a huge lead in round three.
7:36
I want to bet because of that, yeah. Yeah, Cantlay wins as a result, or the- Had no business winning that ever. No business... the, and Cantlay wins in a playoff over Collin Morikawa.
7:42
[laughs] Uh, the, the playoff last year, Denny McCarthy has the great run, gets hot with the putter, and, uh, Victor Hovland ends up, uh, pulling it out in a playoff. Th- those are just some of the recent ones.
7:50
Tiger Woods with five championships at this, uh, this event all time. So yeah, you're right. It's one of un- one of the more underrated events as far as, uh, consistently great finishes.
7:58
Yeah, and if you're, uh, if you're handicapping on your own this week, this is what you're looking at.
8:01
Fifth longest course on tour, highest missed p- uh, fairway penalty on tour, fifth smallest green, four-inch rough is what these guys are gonna be dealing with.
8:09
[laughs] Um, one of the toughest short games, uh, tests i- in, uh, on the PGA Tour. Uh, second toughest course behind Augusta National to gain strokes around the green on. You've got 12 holes with water in play.
8:21
Uh, so basically, this is a really tough course to play at.
8:25
Right now, odds board, Scottie Scheffler plus 360, Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy nine to one, Morikawa 14 to one, Victor Hovland 16 to one, everybody else 25 to one or longer.
8:36
Uh, did big renovations here a few years ago. It has gotten much tougher since they did that. Um, I think a couple things that you need to keep in mind, par five scoring absolutely crucial here.
8:46
They, uh, the, basically the only, the four par fives basically the only holes on the course that play under par. So it was something that I really, really factored in heavily this week, um, was par five scoring.
8:56
Off the tee, uh, this is, we've added length, uh, almost every year here. Jack has, uh, just to kind of keep up with where the game, where the, where the current state of the game's at.
9:05
So really important strokes gained off the tee. I dialed back a little bit how much I was factoring in distance this year. Accuracy more important than distance. Distance matters here. It helps here.
9:14
G- uh, greens are all often firm and fast. Balls are gonna, uh, approach shots are gonna hit the green and run off a lot of times. Uh, but you gotta be hitting it playing from the fairway.
9:22
If you're playing it out of the rough consistently through the week, it is brutal. Um, so really look for those a- uh, accuracy off the tee, and then you gotta be great on approach.
9:31
This is a, a, a massive, massive second, uh, shot test course.
9:35
You've got over fif- about 50% of your approach shots coming from 175 yards or longer, so you can look for guys with g- good long irons or long off the tee to help set, set you up. You gotta be looking at one of those.
9:46
Uh, for me this week, the only problem with these, with these elevated events, Ben, you get the l- the shorter field. I think it's harder to find as many bets as you like.
9:55
Um, I'll start with my favorites, though, right... I went right back to Xander Schauffele, top 10. I, I don't think we, we haven't seen this guy get phased by losing in big moments.
10:04
I don't really think we're gonna see him get phased after coming off of a win. Uh, he's got great history here at the course. T24, T18, T9, T18, all his last four year, uh, four starts at this tournament.
10:15
I've got Scheffler and Schauffele as by far the two best players in this field. Rory McIlroy coming in third for me as kind of overall rankings. The, he's teed u- Xander's teed up 12 times.
10:24
He's got nine top 10s in those finishes. Collin Morikawa, I feel like the entire golf betting world is on Morikawa this week. I couldn't ignore where it, where he's at, though.
10:32
He feels like he's getting on, getting on a heater here right now, and this is the time to jump on with a guy who has played well here before. He won the Workday, uh, in 2020.
10:41
Remember when they played the back-to-back tournaments here ag- coming out of COVID? Uh, he's got an ideal kind of player profile.
10:47
He, last 12 rounds, eighth off the tee, uh, first in good drives gains, 24th on approach, 19th in par five scoring, fifth around the greens. Kinda, and the putting's been a lot better for him here recently.
10:57
So really like him this week. Uh, was fourth at Charles Schwab, fourth at PGA, has been really hot here recently. So I did play him in the outright market, and then I played him in a top 10.
11:07
His top 10s on Xander and Morikawa are my biggest bets, uh, by far. I like Si Woo Kim, and I like Keegan Bradley this week.
11:13
I'm running out of time, so I don't got time to break down fully, but Si Woo Kim has traditionally played this course very, very well. Um, and yes, these are a couple of, uh, the Kelly classic golfers, but- They are.
11:22
Yeah, [laughs] they are. I expect to have them every week. I love these two. Keegan's been playing a lot better recently. Those have great off-the-tee numbers.
11:29
Didn't, I only went with an outright with Justin Thomas, but I do think this is a week we could say, uh, see JT spike. Yeah, well, we'll recap your bets, uh, as well- Yeah... later on in the show.
11:37
Up next, we'll see if Jason Weingarten has any golf bets this week. We'll also dive deep into some of the futures markets and award markets in Major League Baseball up next on A Numbers Game.
11:45
[upbeat music][upbeat music] On VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
Back on The Numbers Game, hour number two as we roll on Wednesday morning from Bar Canada at the D with Kelly Bidlin. I'm Ben Wilson.
12:09
On serve early here in the, uh, last women's quarterfinal at the French Open, Mirra Andreeva and Aryna Sabalenka. 3-2, Sabalenka. Uh, early lead there.
12:16
We were noticing that, uh, th- doesn't seem to be a packed house at Philippe Chatrier, which I'm wondering why. It's like 5:00 PM on a- It's very bizarre... Wednesday in Paris. It's very bizarre. I don't, it...
12:24
Like, is this a thing every year? Maybe they knew Matt Brown was coming, and they just- [laughs] They were like, "Oh, the, uh, the American with the southern accent is here. Let's, let's get out."
12:31
Or maybe it's 'cause they cut off the booze. Like, uh, is that sort of a thing? They did cut... Yeah, that is a th- yeah, they did, uh, they did stop the l- the alcohol sales.
12:38
I'm surprised Matt still went, uh, as a result of that. Or did he even know? I don't know. All questions we're gonna have to ask Mateo when he comes back, uh, at some point next week, I think. Anyway, alas.
12:48
We go out to our progressive guest line right now, talk a little bit of Major League Baseball here with our guy Jason Weingarten, uh, who joins us at Spreadapedia, where you find Jason's work.
12:57
Jason joining us, uh, right now here. Big Major League Baseball today, uh, Jason, because it is a Paul Skenes day, specifically.
13:03
We'll get into him in a second, but, uh, the American League, the Rookie of the Year market's kinda been, uh, thrown, uh, thrown into sort of a new wave here with Luis Gil, how amazing he has been.
13:12
He moves to the favorite after another great start last night, 0.60 ERA in seven starts. What do you make of all the odds movement going on there in that, uh, Rookie of the Year race?
13:22
You know, I have to, uh, give it to Gil here. Gil, uh, Luis Gil, not, not Gil the, the host who's not here. [laughs] Right. Thank you. But I, I have to give it, I have to give it to Gil.
13:31
Uh, he, he deserves to be the favorite right now. I, I think it's a little overpriced. I see he's minus 105. That's, uh, that's a little aggressive. I mean, we're a third of the way through the season.
13:45
I've talked at length about how I don't think pitchers necessarily, um, you know, you know, th- they're not a good value at, at these low numbers.
13:55
And with so much time left, I would be looking for, for any other option in the AL race. I, I don't, I don't think he's gonna win. You know, he, he'd prove me wrong, but, it, it's a long way to go.
14:07
Still a long way to go.
14:08
As far as somebody now, because of the way the odds have shifted here, who's the next guy that really jumps off the, the page to you here, uh, in a, in a Rookie of the Year market where there are a couple of really intriguing players who are off to good starts?
14:21
Yeah, so, um, I, I went way down the list, uh, to a guy that was even unlisted some places this last week, and I, I teased it, but, uh, I, I'm looking at, uh, Gil's teammate, uh, Ja- Jason Dominguez to, uh, come back, and to come back sooner than later.
14:37
He was, he was just, uh, his rehab assignment coming off of Tommy John surgery last year. He, he just went from double-A to triple-A. Um, I know there's no spot to play him, but he's Jaso- Jason Dominguez. Jasson.
14:52
Um, he's, he's the Martian. He is... got $100,000 rookie card. Uh, th- you're giving him at 100 to 1 and 200 to 1, I had to take it. That just hits, uh- I think, I think that's the guy.
15:03
Jason Dominguez with two S's, Kelly. Mm-hmm. Make sure you, make sure you're, uh, you're aware, uh, aware of that, um. It took me a second to find him on here, yeah. He did, yeah. A DK- I think it's, it's Jasson- Yeah...
15:12
if I'm, if I'm pronouncing it. Jasson. Jasson. Okay. He is listed to DraftKings now, 60 to 1 on the, uh, the AL Rookie of the Year. Which is still, which is still a crazy price.
15:21
Again, he's probably at least a week or two away from, from coming up. Yep.
15:24
And then again, there has to be a spot to play him, but he's so much better than half of these guys on the list, you know, ahead of him that aren't gonna win.
15:34
Um, and, and, you know, more on that, uh, Jackson Holliday, 90 to 1, 100 to 1, that's a crazy number.
15:41
You know, especially when you consider before the season, and, and we're talking, you know, two months ago, he was, like, two to one, three to one. Yeah. You know, 100 to 1, there's still a lot of time left.
15:52
I would not write off, uh, Jackson Holliday at 100 to 1 odds either. 80 to 1 at, uh, DK right now. I figure a, a re-promotion is somewhat imminent for Holliday after he's s- sent to, sent down to triple-A. Im- imminent.
16:04
Absolutely imminent. Yeah. No, no doubt o- on that. The, the NL's also interesting because you showed Imanaga as the favorite. Now, he wasn't totally at fault for this last night. His defense was just terrible.
16:13
But the last two starts for Imanaga, eight and two-thirds innings, 12 runs. Now, only eight of those earned here, but he's given up three homers.
16:19
Given up more earned runs, uh, come, gave up more earned runs in one start than he did the entire season against Milwaukee last week, yet he's still the favorite.
16:26
Uh, and you also have, you know, a guy in Paul Skenes who we figure is going to be on a pretty significant innings cap, who's at plus 210.
16:33
Uh, naturally it just leads me to think this could be the perfect, the perfect sort of formula here for a guy a little bit deeper down the board.
16:39
There's been some buzz for a guy I love in Joey Ortiz, Brewers rookie, who's off to a great start this year. He's at seven to one, but anybody else you're looking at in that market?
16:48
Well, you brought up an important thing with Skenes. He's 22 innings into his, his career.
16:53
He's projected to throw approximately another 80 or 90 innings the rest of the season for Pittsburgh, barring, you know, them contending for a playoff race seriously or some, some crazy scenario.
17:03
We're looking at getting around 100 innings out of him. That's nowhere near the required workload to, to win a Rookie of the Year. I mean, those would have to be the most extraordinary 100 innings in rookie history.
17:17
Um, and like I've said so many times, like, you just look at Spencer Strider's rookie numbers. He didn't win, and he had 200 something strikeouts.
17:24
So even at, at this low number, I see Skenes here, it's gotta be dead money. Like, if you bet him early at 50 to 1, you know, good for you.
17:31
I did, I did recommend that a couple months ago, but, um, here at, at three to one, absolutely you have to look at him with dead money. Imanaga, same thing. Like, just slightly over, over even. I see plus 135 today.
17:44
Um, you know, I would not, not take him at that number. Ortiz, I've had a couple people ask me about. I think he's kind of interesting. Um, not, not a guy I'm gonna bet under 10 to 1.
17:54
Yamamoto, I mean, what else you want the guy to do? Like, you know, he was a superstar in Japan. He, he had one bad start in, in the Korea series start the year.
18:03
I, I think he might be the guy standing here at the end of the day, just because he's gonna have, you know, much larger numbers and a bigger contribution most likely than Skines and, uh, potentially a Menaga.
18:16
Um, but farther down the list, Mason Wynn, there's a guy who's, who's been putting up some big numbers that everyone should know about. Um, Andy Paez had an opportunity, but had, hasn't done anything.
18:27
Um, and similar to Jackson Holiday, uh, Jackson, uh, Trucco in, in, uh, in Milwaukee. You know, they're a first place team. He's back to 100 to one. I think that's kind of crazy.
18:38
Um, you know, give me Trucco and, uh, and Holiday here at the big numbers. You can come back on guys that were favorites, uh, before the season at, at extraordinary numbers with two thirds of the year left.
18:52
I'm, I'm much, you know, more excited to be focusing on those guys right now, and, uh, Dominguez obviously- Yep. Lots of good trading options... than the pitchers. Can't, can't do the pitchers here at the low numbers.
19:03
That's, that's what I'm trying to tell you. He is Jason Weingarten, joins us right now here on The Numbers Game. Follow him @spreadapedia, and it is a Paul Skines day as, as well.
19:11
We bring up Paul Skines as a plus 210 second favorite right now at DK in the NL Rookie of the Year market.
19:17
He goes against the Dodgers, who have, uh, had the offense really just quiet down last few games, shut out yesterday, one nothing win. Jared Jones was outstanding last night.
19:24
Uh, what are you doing here with Skines, who certainly, uh, needless to say, tough- tougher test than he has had so far in his Major League career to this point. I'm looking for a first inning yes score.
19:34
I haven't, haven't seen one posted at the places I was gonna bet it yet, so I don't have a number for you. But, uh, I- I'm looking- See, it minus 115, Jason. 115? I'm gonna need a better number than that to play it.
19:45
I'm, I'm hoping I'm, I'm gonna get closer to even. Um, but, but I'm, I'm looking at the first inning, yes. I'm not saying the Padre... Uh, sorry, Padres. Pirates are gonna win or lose.
19:55
Uh, I just think, you know, I was telling you guys right before we went on air, this, this is probably the best lineup he's ever faced in his life and, you know, I know he's been doing good things, but, but like I said, he has 22 Major League innings under his belt, and he gets to face Ohtani and Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts to start the game.
20:13
I'm, I'm very excited to watch that personally. You know, his, his Rookie of the Year, uh, campaign could take a huge jump or basically die in, in one inning today.
20:23
So, uh, you know, a lot on the line there, I guess, but really it's only one start in his career.
20:29
Um, wouldn't surprise me if he had a bad day, but it's very weird to see the Dodgers slightly an underdog to, to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Seriously. No, no doubt on that. One other game here.
20:38
This, the line, I was surprised that it was so short yesterday. I, I bet the Rays against Jesus Luzardo.
20:44
A lefty, Rays have been hitting much better against lefties here recently, and then, and they put up nine on Luzardo yesterday, get a nine five win, even though that was hairy.
20:51
Had, uh, bases loaded, nobody out bottom of the ninth, had to bring in, um, Pete Fairbanks to close that thing out, and they get the win. What do you make of the spot today?
20:58
Here is another lefty, Braxton Garrett, here for the Marlins going against Ca- Tampa as they send out Zach Eflin to the mound, seeing about a $1.25 favorite there across the board. Yeah, I got the Rays.
21:07
I bet them minus 120 about an hour ago. Um, I bet them yesterday too. The thing with the Marlins this year, like, like it's, it's a very unserious team. I, I don't know how else to explain it.
21:18
The, the, the, the players know that, that their best hope is to play well to get traded to a contender.
21:24
Um, you know, there's, there's probably not, not very many good things going on, and, uh, Schumacher knows he's on the way out. It's just a question of him getting fired now or at the end of the season.
21:34
So, um, I watched this team play a couple times, and I was just really shocked at how, um, apathetic they are for, for, you know, going into June.
21:43
You, you see this at the end of the year sometimes, but this is a bad team. Um, I'm fading them today. I'm probably fading them next couple weeks till they, they trade these guys off.
21:54
It's gonna, it's gonna be interesting to see what they do, 'cause this is clearly a team that just, just doesn't care anymore. It's, it's so early, too. I, I'm not used to seeing teams not care this early. Yeah.
22:03
Marlins baseball, it's a glorious thing. [laughs] Kelly Bithlen- Come to Miami to put on a resume tape for, uh, every other team in the league. Kelly Bithlen would know, probably. [laughs] Former Ma...
22:11
Yes, former, uh, Marlins attendee is how I like to describe Kelly Bithlen. Uh, Jason Weingarten giving us some time here, Wednesday edition of The Numbers Game. Always great to catch up, man. We'll, uh, we'll talk soon.
22:21
Thank you. Thanks for having me on. Always fun. Absolutely. Yes. Uh, that Tampa Miami series, it, it... I th- they should just pr- s- put it back at Disney World, Kelly. I'm with you. Come on.
22:31
It's also, it's also, like, that time of the year for, like, camp day, right? Like, get the kids out. Yeah. Like, fill the stadium. All the people in the bright orange T-shirts. Right, yeah.
22:38
Like, I don't know what the French Open's doing. They should be doing the same thing. They sh- [laughs] they should be, seriously. On that, Matt Grissom will join us up next. Great college baseball mind.
22:45
He joins the show right after this. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Act now and save big. For a limited time, get an annual subscription to VSiN Pro at an unbeatable price.
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23:29
As we're back on a Numbers Game, ready to talk some college baseball, because Super Regionals, not only have they been set, Kelly, for a couple days, but we finally got odds that populated the market, uh, right as we were going off air yesterday.
23:39
Finally started to hit everywhere, which is great, and, uh, now we have some bets we can fire on. We welcome in our guy, Matt Grissom, who joins us on our progressive guest line.
23:47
Does great work with the collegebaseballinsiders.com team. We've been citing their numbers a lot here over the last week or so, breaking down regionals and supers.
23:54
Matt right now somewhere in the, uh, Florida Panhandle, which I'm, I'm so glad we can have this conversation, Kelly, because as a proud University of Missouri graduate, I was always stupefied by the number of my friends who would make the nine-hour drive down and then, like, sit by a pool somewhere in the Florida Panhandle.
24:08
Matt has done the same exact thing, driving from Arkansas. So, uh, f- first off, great to see you, Matt. Please explain the logic- Yeah...
24:14
behind this, 'cause I'm, I've always been fascinated, and I'm glad we get to have the conversation again. I don't know. I think there's some allure of having the beach 25 yards away. But yeah, we're pool people.
24:27
I don't, I don't mind going to the beach. We took our boys crab hunting last night. But yeah, I would just rather sit by a pool and, and sip good drinks than sit down at the beach, get the sand all over you.
24:39
I don't- That's fair, man... uh, that may be bougie, but, uh, yeah, give me a pool. I think it always starts with the good intention of going to the beach.
24:47
But then you, if there's a pool nearby, you always end up at the pool. Right, yeah. 'Cause yeah, who needs to deal with all that sand and, and sludge and goo and pathog- You gotta walk past the pool to get to the beach.
24:55
I'm here. Let's plop down and- That is true... and waste eight hours. [laughs] Not waste, but, you know. Well, at least you were productive.
25:04
I know you were working on your, uh, super, super regional betting guide that is gonna be dropping soon, while you were working at the pool. So, uh, so props to you on that. Always. Uh, I...
25:12
It's fair to say, right, th- this regional is crazy as, from, from when you and I have been covering this stuff, we can remember all the upsets. You had bunch of three seeds advance, a four seed in Evansville.
25:21
And it's, it's so f- it's okay and fair to say, right, like, e- especially for me, I'm sure for you, made it very, very frustrating for us as bettors who are accustomed to not seeing this amount of total carnage and chaos.
25:32
I know for me, like Oklahoma was a great example. You get them past the, the big, bad, uh, potential, uh, potential sleeper team in Duke, and I'm like, "Sweet, we're through to the final. Just gotta beat-" Yeah... UConn.
25:42
And then as a $3 favorite, they get blown out. That was kind of my regional [laughs] weekend in a nutshell, as I went to 0 and 2 on my futures. Yeah.
25:49
I'm honestly not sur- more surprised by, you know, UConn than I am Evansville. Uh, Evansville, that could've been, you know, a sneaky four seed in that, especially after Wake got eliminated.
26:02
But let's talk [laughs] about the UConn Huskies. What? Like this team, they struggled all season long. They never really found their balance, and then all of a sudden going to Norman and come out of that.
26:13
I think that may have been one of the most shocking results of the weekend. And then you look at another, you, like you said, there's five three seeds that come through.
26:23
Florida goes into Stillwater and takes care of Oklahoma State, which was one of my best bets to make Omaha. And, and here we are, Florida Gators, 28-27, probably should have missed the field altogether.
26:35
But I said it all season long, all the talent was still there. They just could never put it together. And lo and behold, they figure it out in Stillwater, and now they're into the super regionals.
26:45
I am in on them, uh, now, Matt, plus 172. A book out here was posting that against Clemson. Do you share my, uh, my sentiment that, uh, now that the bats have woken up, this is a really, really dangerous Florida team?
26:57
Yeah, absolutely. And I'm not completely sold on Clemson. They're good, but when they get into a, a match where it's gonna be runs left and right, I feel like Florida's got the advantage in the pen.
27:08
So I, I like that, Florida plus money. And that was a bullpen game, too, Florida beating Oklahoma State, three relievers in that, uh, decider, four to two there in Stillwater. What's also tough, I...
27:18
We don't have the, the benefit of this in any of the books, uh, here in Nevada. Kelly was doing some shopping. Do you know of any books, Matt, that allow you to parlay some of these r- super regional, uh, or...
27:27
You know, we had it last week with the regionals, that parlay series prices, since we have six of the eight super regionals where the favorite is $2 or greater, uh, on the odds board. Yeah.
27:36
And this is where you kind of get into a situation where, yeah, you did have some upsets in the regionals, but I feel like it's gonna be a lot of chalk. Uh, I actually parlayed Tennessee, Florida State, and one more.
27:49
I can't- A- A&M? Texas A&M. Yep, A&M. Yes. Yeah, that was a parlay that I got on DraftKings. So there are some shops out there that are offering them. Nice. [laughs] And Kelly's Florida State Seminoles. Let's go.
28:01
There you go. Yeah, baby. Back in the saddle. They're number three in our Insider's Power Ratings now. Watch out for the 'Noles. 23 to 1. Let's ride.
28:10
I, I spent about 25 frustrated minutes just banging my head against the wall trying to figure out any book here that would let me parlay super regional, uh, series prices, Matt. I did not, uh, have any success.
28:18
Yeah, that network that y'all work for, they, uh, they'll let you do it. [laughs] That's a good place to start, yeah. [laughs] Okay. Good, good to know. Let's go through the...
28:25
So there's only two series here where it is viewed to be more of a toss-up. Uh, and you get, uh, Kentucky minus 135 at home against Oregon State, plus 115. A really good Beaver team out of the Pac-12.
28:35
Kentucky, uh, taking the, the SEC, they were pr- preseason fifth out of seven teams in the SEC East. Great season for the Wildcats. What do you make of that series? I've...
28:45
Listen, I have told everybody and their mother that I'm not buying this Kentucky Wildcats team. The stats don't back up the, the amount of success that they've had this season.
28:55
But I'm tired of losing money betting against them. For, for all intents and purposes, I'm gonna stay away from it. But I wouldn't be surprised if Oregon State comes in and wins.
29:05
Their probabilities are higher, uh, from our super regional guide. Sneak peek coming out, they like Oregon State.
29:12
But looking at this Kentucky team, they don't do anything great, but they do everything well, and they will punish Oregon State if they make a single mistake. And I think that's...
29:22
You know, when you get into the post-season, when you play clean, mistake-free baseball, that's typically gonna take you further than having a bunch of studs that can go out there and, and throw seven or eight innings and give you, you know, 14 strikeouts or have somebody hit three home runs a game.
29:38
So I... it's a coin flip for me. The numbers say Oregon State. My, my head says Kentucky. So I'm just gonna stay away from it. Yeah. Hey, I'm, I'm with you on that. I, I loved Indiana State in that regional. 3 to 1 shot.
29:51
Thought, uh, Kentucky was not, like a paper tiger, so to speak, but thought they were definitely beatable. And, uh, Indiana State could not get the job done in that regional.
29:58
The other one, very tightly priced here as we're talking college baseball super regionals with Matt Grissom from collegebaseballinsiders.com right now on ANG. It's the, uh, the Georgia NC State series.
30:07
This, at least on paper, would, would feel like you... the, the, just the craziest, the most competitive three-game series of all of them.
30:13
Georgia with one of the best, uh, offensive players in the country in Charlie Condon, minus 125. NC State battle-tested. They're plus 105. Outstanding ACC-SEC matchup here, Matt. Yeah, I, and I really like Georgia.
30:27
I gave them out, uh, Georgia to make the College World Series at 12 to one, and I've got a little bit of them to win it all.
30:34
But the pitching staff I don't think is gonna allow them to win it all, but they are going to be able to swing the bat with the best of them, and I think that that starts with NC State.
30:45
I think they take care of NC State. This has been a Jekyll and Hyde team all season long. You never really know what you're gonna get out of the Wolfpack. Georgia has kind of been steady Eddie here lately.
30:55
Uh, Charlie Condon, like you mentioned, he's been good on offense, we know that.
30:59
But, uh, Layton Finley, Jarvis, I can't think of his last name, they, uh, they're, they're been, they've been formidable in the bullpen for Georgia.
31:09
And like I said, that's always been the question mark for me, a- is can this Georgia pitching staff get to that next level to get them to the super regionals?
31:18
And they did it through the regionals and, and I think they'll do the same to get them to Omaha. Georgia is taking some money in the market for minus 125 when those were posted yesterday. Now out to minus 150.
31:28
There are two dogs that are, are getting some, uh, some good betting interest here, Matt, so far in kind of that, that next category of, you know, they're decently priced favorites in Virginia and North Carolina, but not overwhelming to the degree of a, you know, an A&M or, or a Florida State or a, or a Tennessee, who's your biggest favorite in the super regionals here.
31:45
Uh, Virginia minus, uh, now down to minus 230 against Kansas State, plus 185, who took, took the Arkansas regional, and then North Carolina here getting, uh, down to minus 220 against West Virginia plus 180.
31:56
Of those two, more likely upset in your opinion. I mean, West Virginia kind of came out of nowhere. That surprised me. Yeah. Kansas State started the season in the top 25.
32:07
We knew about Kaelin Culpepper, we knew about Owen Birema, uh, Tyson Nabors, the, the one of the best closers in the country.
32:15
They ran through that Fayetteville regional though, and I don't know if, if it's purple jerseys from the Big 12 that are r- the Razorbacks' kryptonite, but you had TCU come in there and do it last year and then Kansas State did it.
32:27
I will say Kansas State, while the win was impressive, they, they really just had to beat Arkansas one, I mean, one time. Yeah, they did it against Hagen Smith, but then you get SEMO and,
32:39
you know, I'm not gonna discount them going through that regional, 'cause what they did was impressive. But I think their, their run stops here.
32:47
West Virginia, if Derek Clark can pitch like he did, I think they could give North Carolina a run for their money. So taking it to your question, I would say West Virginia- Yeah...
32:55
is probably the more live dog with JJ Wetherholt and, uh, Derek Clark there against, against the, uh, Tar Heels.
33:02
UNC need, [laughs] what, minus 1000 against Long Island needed the six run ninth walk-off grand slam cardiac, uh, Carolina. Uh, you always worry about that. Hey, hats- Yeah... hats off to them for beating LSU.
33:14
That's wild. I didn't think they were gonna have it in them. That was a wild game. That's why I love college baseball. Four-three in the 10th. Had to score in the ninth to force extra innings. Yeah, that was awesome.
33:22
He is Matt Grissom. Check out, uh, follow him on, on Twitter @Gri- @GrissomOnX. The super regional betting guide is gonna be coming out soon here, so check that out, as well as collegebaseballinsiders.com.
33:31
Great to see you as all, Matt. Enjoy the vacay. Y'all too. Thank you. When we come back, we'll recap our best bets, wrap up the show here on The Numbers Game.
33:39
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34:15
Back here on The Numbers Game, I'm Ben Wilson with Kelly Billings. We'll recap our best bets. Get back to Kelly's golf bets here if you missed those from the Memorial. Talk about the baseball slate as well.
34:24
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34:35
Can anyone knock the Chiefs off the AFC pedestal? Hi, I'm Stormy Bonto-Toney with VSiN, V Sports Betting Network.
34:41
Let's get into it, because the back-to-back defending Super Bowl champs are plus 300 favorites to three-peat in the conference.
34:47
While KC stunned the then top seeded Ravens this past January at plus 475, Baltimore and two-time MVP Lamar Jackson could be back with a vengeance, adding former rushing leader Derrick Henry to the fold.
34:58
The Bills' odds lengthened to seven to one following the departure of Stefon Diggs to Houston.
35:02
Meanwhile, the Texans' odds shifted from 13 to one to plus 850 after adding Diggs and Danielle Hunter as part of a very active free agency.
35:09
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35:27
All right, thanks Stormy. We're back for our final segment here. A couple of, uh, of tweets, Kelly.
35:30
Finding out, uh, from Tom that you can parlay regionals at BetRivers in, uh, college baseball, so that is great to know for those of you out there in, uh, in BetRivers jurisdictions.
35:40
Uh, Brian asking Kelly, "Why are you not initiating me to the best, uh, food truck to be in, uh, in Arizona so that I can parlay super regionals?" [laughs] That's right. That's great. Yeah.
35:48
Go down to the food truck, man.
35:49
It's, it's, you know, it's funny 'cause well, I do arena football right now this time of year, and there are so many Arizona teams, and it's, I'm always just checking my schedule, like, when do I have an Arizona trip so I can align that with, you know, with the operators out there.
36:02
And this would be a gr- this would be a great week where if- Yeah... this would've been the perfect week to have an Arizona Rattler game. Sadly, I do not.
36:08
I have a Sioux Falls Storm game, which, uh, I will be in South Dakota this weekend, uh, which South Dakota is not Arizona. Hey, you're pumped.
36:14
I know there's a lot of people waiting for you to get out there and, uh, party with you and stuff, so. Sioux Falls? Yeah. Yeah. King of Sioux Falls over here. I, I have never been to, uh, Sioux Falls. I'm excited.
36:22
You haven't? No, I haven't been to South Dakota in general. I mean, I'm only surprised because of, because of the sports that you've called- Yeah... that you, you haven't ended up there at some point.
36:29
I think I have to check how... I think they'll be, like, my 39th state, I wanna say. Like, I'm, I'm, I'm not sure. Oh, you're checking a whole state off the list, too. Nice. I haven't been to South Dakota. Yeah.
36:38
Okay, nice. Um- I've never been there. Never been there. You've never been? [laughs] No, I've never been there Really Flor- oh, 35 states. I, I exaggerate, but it'll have to be 36 though.
36:46
So we're on, we're on our way Are you, do you have that noted on your phone somewhere? [laughs] I do have it noted on my phone. Do, do you have every state written down? Yeah. Can you run through them all, please?
36:55
I don't know why I find this, uh, entertaining, but I do. Um, yeah, I don't know why I have, like, a random note. Uh- Did you put it alphabetically? That feels like something Ben Wilson would do too... I would, yeah.
37:03
Alabama, Arizona- He, he really did. Oh my God...
37:05
Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Washington, and my home state, Wisconsin.
37:22
Wow, there you go. Yeah, you guys- I also listed, you know what's funny? Sorry, you guys have no idea what goes on in the mind of Ben Wilson. I- my mind works in really weird ways.
37:29
I listed, uh- I thought there was a good chance of you having them alphabetically ordered, but oh my gosh... I also listed countries for some reason, 16 countries. 16 countries? Pretty good. Wow.
37:37
You might have me beat there. Also one principality, Monaco. [laughs] Nice, nice, nice. I was gonna say, I think I've probably been at more countries in Europe than I have states in the United States, but- Yeah.
37:47
Yeah, I mean, you can, you can get to a lot very- Hopefully. Right... very, uh, easily. Speaking of Europe, Aryna Sabalenka was down to even money live. Uh, this was while we were at a break here.
37:56
She was down to even money live, uh, down a, down a break. Trainer comes out, she was down five through to Mirra Andreeva, has since broken back, and is now up 5-3 in a first set tie break.
38:05
But Mirra Andreeva, the teenager, is going to have a great career. She is, uh, playing really well against Sabalenka right now, and, uh, just hits a winner to get back on serve there in the tie break, so 5-4.
38:16
What was the, uh, closing odds? How big of a favorite? A minus 510 consensus. Oh, wow, okay. So they really did adjust straight from- And Sabalenka, yeah, well Sabal- the trainer came out-... the injury scare. Yeah...
38:23
Sabalenka was, yeah, looking, uh, yes, a little bit, uh, yeah, a little bit labored. And then is this the, is this the, the, the Bets Giving Andreeva? Is this the- No, no, no, no. No, okay.
38:34
That was- This is, this is the better one, as Gil would say. Yes. Okay. Yes, that was, yeah, there's ITF, uh, lowest level, in which Bets Giving, uh, when, uh, when Adam Burke and I were- That's not a fair start.
38:45
JVT had to make the desperation bet to try to catch. I was, I thought I had it won, which is funny 'cause I think Adam Burke also thought he had it won. Yeah. But I was, it's, it's unclear who was in the lead.
38:53
[laughs] It was either Adam Burke or I who was in the lead- It's unclear [laughs]... decent Bets Giving, and then JVT was on the air early and, uh, basically made a last-ditch tennis bet and beat all of us.
39:03
Uh, which I still was n- I still never saw the final standings, so I still don't really know what happened, but anyway. [laughs] It was very bizarre. It was, it was unclear. Uh, that's what's happening right now.
39:11
Set point here, Sabalenka up 6-4 in the first set breaker. Uh, Kelly, wanna let you recap here your golf bets for those who missed it, as we can run through the Memorial card. Very, very, uh, big name field- Yeah...
39:22
this week at the Memorial. Yeah, for sure. This is, uh, big boy golf this week. Great field. Uh, again, top, uh, 73-man field, you're gonna have top 50 in ties, plus anybody within 10 shots of the lead.
39:33
So keep that in mind if you're playing DFS or betting any of those markets this week. Um, long shots up, we, we ran through some of the, the, the preview of the tournament earlier in the show.
39:43
Long shots is up, though, with Wes and myself this week. Um, and then we will be back in studio for a special long shots edition next week for the US Open. Nice.
39:51
So quick rundown real quick, um, top 10s on Xander and Morikawa, those would be my favorite bets this week. Uh, Xander, it's just lock and load again. I don't really expect him to be too different coming off of a win.
40:04
We've seen him [laughs] we've seen these close losses from him before, and it really him not get affected, uh, bets.
40:09
I, I, I think that's something that could be in people's minds, uh, of how he's gonna play after a win, but I'm going right back to the well betting him top, top 10.
40:17
Him and Scheffler are kind of by far my highest rated golfers this week. Yep. Uh, R- Rory right behind him. I don't wanna take anything away from Rory. He is, he is third, but he is solidly third behind those two.
40:28
Um, and just real, real quick, I mean, recent results. I mean, won PGA, second at the Wells Fargo. He's got nine top 10s in 12 starts this season. Great history at this course, uh, here too.
40:37
Last four tournaments, uh, last four appearances at the Memorial, he's T24, T18, T9, T18. So has done really well here in tournaments that have had larger fields typically than what you are gonna see this week.
40:49
Always was an invitational though, so it was always a tough, tough field, and always had the best of the golfers around. Morikawa, outright, it's a little bit of a short price on the outright for, for him, Ben.
40:59
I do think he's peaking right at the right time. He's known, he's a very popular play this week. Um, I don't wanna miss out, so I am playing that, but my bigger bet is in the, is in the top 10 market at plus 130.
41:10
Um, this is a guy, he's just on heat right now. Fourth at the Charles Schwab, T4 at the PGA, T16 at the Wells Fargo, ninth at the RBC, T3 at the Masters.
41:19
We saw him struggling earlier in the year, um, especially with his irons, which was shocking 'cause he's one of the best iron players in the world. But everything's coming together a little bit better now.
41:29
He's, his putting's been r- a l- a lot better this, uh, this year overall, and now that the irons are starting to click, he's b- he's the most accurate guy pretty much in the field off the tee, which is really important this week.
41:40
Great with approach, 19th in par five scoring in the field, fifth around the green, really checks all the boxes for your, what you're gonna need this week. Um, JT I didn't really get to talk about much before.
41:50
I'm just playing an outright price on him. I did think that number had gotten a little too long on Justin Thomas. Um, and we've got different books in Nevada.
41:57
I think anything over at 30 to 1 or longer on JT is probably a fair play, um, this week. He's T, T8 at the PGA, T21 at Wells Fargo, T5 RBC Heritage, also has three missed cuts this year.
42:08
So it's been a little bit of an up and down, uh, season for JT. Feels like an all or nothing guy in general. Y- right, that's kind of where I'm just like, I, I wouldn't w- I wouldn't wanna play a top 20 on him this week.
42:18
Kind of just aiming high, and if he's got the game this week, he can contend. The putter's been just ice cold, and it's really holding him back.
42:24
He had some problems off the tee beginning of the season, that, he's kind of corrected that though. So if the ball striking's there with JT, and we talked about this on the podcast, I didn't bring it up earlier.
42:34
One of the parts, these are small, a little bit smaller greens, and they are very difficult greens. But when you talk about greens like that, Ben, it kind of levels out the putting skills, right?
42:43
It, it is w- the guys that are really good putters, guess what? They're still gonna struggle on really, on really tough greens. So it kind of helps bring everybody closer to the pack.
42:52
It's the, the Hideki Matsuyama theory from the Masters- Exactly, exactly... a couple years ago. Yes. Hey, we just saw a guy who'd been ice cold with the putter, Robert McIntyre- That's right... get hot and win last week.
43:00
So there is precedence. Yes, absolutely. Um, and then rounding out the card, top 20, Si Woo Kim and Keegan Bradley, and then yes, I did play a little long, uh, long price on Keegan Bradley to win this thing.
43:10
Si Woo had one of the most consistent years of his, of his career, but the past two, the past two outings have been ugly. Uh, did miss cut at the PGA, T56 at Charles Schwab.
43:20
Um, but man, strokes gain numbers, he's getting it done pretty much everywhere this year, and great history at this cour- uh, this tournament. Fourth, T13, T9, and T18 the last four years, so pretty incredible.
43:31
Uh, Keegan Bradley, man, he is, he's getting hot right now. Great putting week.
43:35
That's always the concern with him, will be again this week, uh, as well as his scrambling around the green play, but even that's been a little bit better lately, Ben.
43:41
And man, he is off the tee recently, just been incredible. So ball striking really great from Keegan Bradley. I think he could s- uh, he could spike this week on the leaderboard. Nice, plus 138, Don.
43:51
Little, uh, little T20 there for Kelly Bidlin. Uh, for me, just the, I just have the college baseball. Nothing stood out to me on the, uh, MLB card for today. No bets for me there.
43:58
Just Florida Super Regional, a plus 172 best number out there. See that number, I see that number coming down. It's already plus 135 at DK.
44:06
If you can find a plus 150 or better, I go ahead and bet that Florida in the Super Regional over Clemson. All right, Kelly, been a blast hanging out with you, man. Always fun, baby.
44:13
As always, I'll see you Sunday on Live Bet Sunday. That's right. Uh, Jared Smith in tomorrow and Friday for Gil. We've done all that we can do. If you're listening to us on Radio Gojo and Golic is next.
44:22
If you're watching right here on VSAN, stay tuned for Best Bets. [upbeat rock music]
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Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
