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Jun 5, 2026
A Numbers Game | June 5, 2026 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | June 5, 2026 | Hour 1
00:00
46:45
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Transcript
0:00
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From a great deal today to a great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places. I'm a pretty great multitasker.
1:02
I can wash dishes and do laundry. I can rollerskate while walking my dog. [dog barks] I can even order lunch while doing my homework. But I can't use my phone while driving.
1:14
A distracted driver is one of the leading causes of death in the United States. So when it comes to driving, please, don't be a multitasker. Don't drive distracted.
1:22
A message brought to you by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Project Yellow Light, and the Ad Council. [upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do.
1:33
He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
1:41
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. And SiriusXM channel 158. Gil Alexander, Kelly Midland. Let's go. Let us go. Wow.
1:54
This Stanley Cup Final is unbelievable. Pretty dang good. Pretty dang good.
1:58
We will, uh, we'll talk about it momentarily as the Carolina Hurricanes knot up their best of seven Stanley Cup Final against the Vegas Golden Knights in dramatic fashion.
2:07
Just as dramatically as Vegas came back to beat them in game one, Carolina does so in game two. We'll get to the details here momentarily. Matt Grissom will join us to talk college baseball super regionals. Let's go.
2:20
Uh, also, so- I need a new team. Hopefully Matt can talk me into something. [laughs] I know which, I know which team I want to bet. Ole Miss. Oh, do you? Oh, yeah. I want, I want to bet Ole Miss.
2:29
Let's see if he can talk me off of that. Uh, Chris Felica will join us. World Cup, Belmont Stakes. Special Numbers Game investigation reveals that the Belmont Stakes is tomorrow, Kelly. That's right.
2:41
We gonna do the Triple Crown ever again, people? You win the Derby, we gonna do this again? It's so, it, [sighs] it's so difficult. It's s- it's such an interesting topic to me, 'cause I, if I was an owner, I get it.
2:54
I so get it. I do, too. But, like, for the audience- But-... for the sport... but again, the casuals like myself, it's the only thing we care about. Mm-hmm.
3:00
It's the only thing we care about historically that latches into the sport. Anyway, the Belmont Stakes from a horse racing handicapper purist position is supposed to be awesome tomorrow, so Chris has thoughts on that.
3:11
Fezzik Fridays. S- uh, Crack is unscripted on Thursdays. Fezzik is, let's put it this way, he knows what he wants to talk about. It's a record today, Gil. There's a lot to get to, including, including
3:24
his thoughts on Greg Peterson's dating travails. That's right. Might save that for last. I don't know. I, I'd even kind of hate to say that I, I think I agreed with, like, 75% of what he sent over on that yesterday.
3:36
Yeah. Well, we've gotten to the point where Stevie Fezzik is your, uh, dating guru? Is that what we're doing? Uh, yeah, maybe. Okay. Maybe. Hey, r- uh, w- would you not agree this is a record this morning? Oh, yeah.
3:45
I mean- We often talk about what he t- what he texts us, like, an hour before the show starts- Yeah... but this is, this is a novel. There's a lot.
3:53
We'll get to it all, sports betting and beyond with, uh, Stevie Fezzik a little later on the show. Um, we'll have to take a look at American League MVP odds now that Aaron Judge is gonna be shelved. Oof.
4:05
Um, for at least four weeks, and we'll see after that. Mm-hmm. So that whole, uh, market is, uh, on the f- on the fritz, if you will.
4:14
I'll, and we gotta talk tennis, of course, where the men's semis are in action right now. Sascha Zverev up a set, up a break against Jakub Mensik. We don't have any play on this.
4:23
We don't have any play on the other game t- today as well, Flavio Cobolli, in what has been a solid French Open, and dare I say, when I hear what, how others have been getting crushed on it, I feel like it's a spectacular French Open by that, by that measure.
4:38
Uh, I do have a play [laughs] which we'll get to momentarily, which is just, what, what a run. We have to put it in historical perspective. Uh, okay, hockey last night. Let us begin there. What a, what a game.
4:51
I mean, game one was tremendous. Heart attack inducing. This one, the same. Carolina beats Vegas in overtime. Some might call overtime, Kelly, the fourth period. I wouldn't. [laughs] But some might. I mean, technically.
5:06
Yeah. Um- It was the fourth period of the game... it was two, I mean, two to nothing Vegas, uh, in this game after, uh, you know, this is als- I mean, you talk, talk about an anomaly with this.
5:21
Um, two to nothing when Brett Howden scored in the first period on a bit of a breakaway, then in the second period on a great stickwork goal. Uh, regular season this year for Brett Howden, he scored 12 total goals.
5:34
Post-season now, 13. Gil, how do, how do these hockey stats we've j- gone through the past two days make any sense? How, how do- Uh, they don't... how does that happen?
5:42
How does that Brayden McNabb as- assist stat happen that Stormy brought up yesterday? It's wild. It's incredible. The, the, the Golden Knights are incredible. It's two to, it's two to nothing Knights
5:52
halfway through the third period, and at that point, you're like, "I don't know how this team loses to anybody." Yeah, they're never losing again. They're never losing again.
6:00
This is, this is, uh, you start to think of them, the way that they're playing now, not in terms of the regular season record, but the way they're playing, you're like, "This, could they beat, like, all the Stanley Cup champs of recent memory?
6:10
Would they beat the Lightning? Would they beat, uh, the, the Panthers? All the great ones of, of recent past?" Well- Just as soon as you say that, Carolina then says, uh, "I don't know if you know about us."
6:22
They score three goals in a five-minute-and-five-second span. Logan Stankoven, uh, followed by, uh, Logan Stankoven, who just, uh, went around the net, sort of banged it off the, uh, the scrum right at the net, scored.
6:36
Then Marc Jankowski, t- those two goals, two minutes and 26 seconds apart.
6:41
Jankowski, they looked to see if it was offsides, it was not, fed by, uh, William Carrier, former Vegas Golden Knight, and all of a sudden it was 2-2, and then came the controversy.
6:51
Where I'd like to talk to hockey folks to really determine how big of a controversy they make it out to be. Uh, Director Matt Hicks gave a great breakdown for me and the crew, uh, before the show.
7:00
What was his conclusion? Uh, he's a, he's a, he was, he's a big, good hockey guy, right? Yeah. 'Cause I, I was watching it. I had a lot, I had it, I had it on mute at, at the time, right?
7:08
And I was kind of like, "All right, I get why they're replaying this and they're looking at this," and, uh, I'm like, I'm like, "It, there's not gonna be a goal here."
7:16
And, and sure enough, they go, they go to the faceoff, and I'm like, "Okay, yeah, like, makes sense." And I'm like, "Why is there a power play?" Oh, no, that's the penalty. Uh, th- that's the pen- No...
7:23
I didn't realize- A penalty-... that you would get penalized... a penalty for a, a, uh, non-granted challenge. Correct, yeah, which I, I didn't realize was a thing.
7:31
A two-minute power play, and that's where, by the way, um, Goddess Bear, Wrister, was tipped in by, uh, Captain Jordan Stall, and that's where Carolina took the lead 3-2.
7:41
But the, the controversy, again, and this was, the reason that it's interesting is because Marc Messier was going at it with the, uh, with the official consultant there on the broadcast.
7:50
Messier, who of course, Hall of Famer, right? Mm-hmm. He was j- he was just like, he, he didn't understand it. He couldn't really... He's like, "You're allowed to poke it out under the goaltender's, um, uh, body."
8:00
But essentially, what the Golden Knights were, were reviewing, the, the, the, the replay showed that the puck crossed the line, uh, and what would've been, right, it would be a go-ahead goal to make it three to two Knights.
8:11
But the refs ruled that the goaltender interference, that goaltender interference was enough to take back the goal.
8:17
And so Tortorella, John Tortorella, challenges it, a very risky challenge with five minutes left in a 2-2 hockey game. They fail to, uh, get that challenge their way, and then the power play goal by Stall.
8:29
Uh, 3-2 Hurricanes, and then, wow, in the final seconds, Marc Stone on the tip-in, um- Crazy... and it's 3-3. And if you're a Knights fan, you're just going ballistic- Mm-hmm... at this point.
8:42
You're just like, "This team refuses to lose." Uh, then we go to overtime, and it was the Seth Jarvis, um, one-timer, basically where Alex Ovechkin plants himself there on the left point. Yep. He's right there, bang.
8:54
Hurricanes four, Golden Knights three in a thriller of a hockey game, just as great as the first one. And both of these games have been spectacular. But we go back to, uh, Vegas, T-Mobile Arena, tomorrow night
9:07
for game number three, with the Golden Knights having rested home ice advantage. Any, I mean, you and I, we have the same philosophy, you and me. It, none of this induces a bet for us, none of it.
9:19
Yeah, I di- I did place Carolina small last night, and that's, uh, I, I mean, I, I do kind of look at it the same way, uh, you know, i- i- in similarly, I should say, to the NBA Finals, Gil, where I'm like, I kind of have a feeling if I end up on a bet at any point in this series, it's gonna be on the Carolina side, just 'cause I think there's a little bit more value baked in there.
9:37
But man, this, I, I was thinking the same thing t- you know, two and a half periods into that game last night. This Go- this Golden Knights team [laughs] is never losing. Like, they're never losing.
9:46
Never, they're never losing again. Oh, it's a- By the way, game three's a coin flip. Yeah. Coming back here, I don't think, I won't be doing anything game three, I don't think. Nope, nothing for me either.
9:55
What I, what I do have, uh, tomorrow, but that's back to the French Open. We'll get to the NBA Finals, which, uh, resumes tonight, game three. But back to the French Open for a sec.
10:03
What I do have is I am on Maya Wolinska again tomorrow. Uh, +310 was the consensus number that, uh, subscribers got last night, vsan.com/picks. I got a +350 rogue number here at Circa here just before the show.
10:18
But, uh, subscribers got +310 'cause the +350s are not abundant. Um, but essentially, again, this is, this is, you kind of have to put this in historical context.
10:28
Again, going all the way back, i- if she's able to pull this off against Mirra Andreeva tomorrow in the women's final,
10:36
this becomes one of the great sports stories of the decade, and maybe really you go back further than that. Uh, Steve Fezzik, who we were on the group chat last night, he said this is kind of like John Daly 1991.
10:50
And it was that crooked stick, was that in 1991 when John Daly, um, won the PGA Championship? And at that time, I'm trying to think, John Daly, let me l- let me look this u- look this up real quick.
11:04
John Daly at that- Yes, crooked stick... at that time was the 168th ranked golfer in the world when he won the PGA Championship in 1991. You don't have to go that far back, though, in tennis, right?
11:15
Obviously, the only qualifier to ever win a Slam, in other words, had to go through qualies to get to the main draw to actually then win the Slam.
11:24
You have to win 10 matches, in other words, three qualifiers and then seven matches. Emma Raducanu in 2021- Mm-hmm... at the US Open did it as a qualifier.
11:34
She went from 150th in the world to 23rd in the span of two weeks, winning 10 matches. Wolinska right now is trying to go from the 114th ranked player in the world. She also went through qualies.
11:49
She's won nine matches in a row. She's trying to get, if she wins tomorrow, she'll be the 21st ranked player in the world after being ranked- Hoo... 114 before this.
11:58
The difference between the two, though, Raducanu is, is your basic power baseliner. Wolinska, who's five foot four if she's standing on a brick, I think- Mmm. Right...
12:08
uh, she has to rely, I mean, she has to rely on spin and guile and drop shots and just a, an amazing, you know, point construction Right? Wearing down heavy hitters. She, with, with lobs, right?
12:22
With moon lobs to, to move her opponent around. It's just unbelievable what she's been able to do. Um, and just again, she, her entire career, right, her biggest claim to fame is that she's Iga Swiatek's best friend.
12:35
She's had to watch her friend go to number one in the world, win six Slams, while she battled depression, had to take a break from tennis, has only made in all of her life, I mean, she's 24 years old a- already.
12:47
She's only made, in her entire career, 800,000 total dollars until this week. She has now made 1.6 million already. If she wins tomorrow, that will be bumped up to 3.2 million. This is life-changing for her.
12:58
It's awesome. It's an incredible story. Um, she said, you know, people are like, "Why are you wearing a different outfit?" She goes, "I don't have a sponsor."
13:05
Usually these tennis players wear the same kit at all the whole tournament, so she's wears different outfit every game 'cause she has no sponsor. She doesn't get paid till the end of the tournament.
13:12
She was worried she couldn't pay for the hotel the rest of the, the tournament. So we're on Walynska yet again. Love it. Our fifth time in this tournament. Coming back on The Numbers Game.
13:22
You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home.
13:28
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13:36
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13:45
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
14:01
Now on vsin.com, the Daily Racing Form Acorn Stakes preview, Greg Peterson's MLB best bets, Zach Cohen's Knicks-Spurs game two prediction tonight from San Antone. The proverbial must-win situation for the Spurs.
14:17
No team has ever come back to win the NBA Finals down 0-2, having lost both of those games at home.
14:23
Coming up today on the website, Tyler Shoemaker's WNBA Best Bets, Belmont Stakes selections, VSiN and Daily Racing Form, and the UFC Vegas 118 Best Bets. Dave Ross, great seeing Dave in studio.
14:35
He's here in part because he's attending that. That's right. Looking forward to that. Football season special now through the Super Bowl, or to the Super Bowl, I should say. What's that, Super Bowl 59? Wow.
14:46
Just $175 dollars, vsin.com/subscribe. We're up to 59. Uh, we're- No, pardon me. Is that 59? Yes. No, what is that? Uh, 61. 61, pardon me. Yeah. 61, my bad.
14:58
Dave Ross and Rob Moreno in attendance tomorrow night, um, at U- at the UFC, at the Apex. So, uh, if you see them, I, they have promised that they will give crisp high fives, photographs, and autographs to anybody.
15:12
By request. Hmm. Uh, this is, uh, we get tweets at Bet the Book. This is from, uh, Jim DeAltorio. He says, "LOL on your June pick for most wins. As a Cubs fan, I was hoping you knew something I wasn't aware of."
15:24
And he shows me a video of, uh [sighs] the ball getting lost in the lights. Uh, that was brutal last night. But the Cubbies, if we are to win June, remember last night, Cubbies were down to the A's six to one.
15:39
Two-run Jimmy Jack to make it 6-3, and then in the ninth, six consecutive hits for the Cubbies to beat the A's. Cubbies have played three one-run games already. Hmm. They're one and two.
15:49
Here's the top of the June standings, by the way. Tigers, Marlins, Phillies 3 and 0. Royals 3 and 1. Those are the four teams with three wins, uh, so far. Here come those Tigers. Um, here [laughs] come those Tigers.
16:02
That's absolutely right. Uh, this is from, let's see, Brad Sports. "Gentlemen, in my humble opinion," oh, talking about crack hour yesterday, says, "you guys are the best hour of sports and sports betting on radio.
16:13
Each and every week I have learned so very much from you. Thank you and lots of love from Canada." Thank you, Brad Sports from north of the border. In Canada. Thank you, Canada. Appreciate that.
16:23
Uh, Ryan Hyatt, "Welcome to the Friday edition of The Numbers Game with Gil and Kelly. No around, uh, VSiN, uh, known around VSiN as the day we find out if the dump button still works. Have a day, boys."
16:32
[laughs] Looking forward to that. Hey, Ryan, we've had a pretty good run recently, okay? We have. Don't jinx it, all right? You work in the business, too, all right?
16:38
Shrek McFee, "The risk of injury, et cetera, is not worth attempting the Triple Crown if ownership and trainer do not realistically think they can do it.
16:45
Golden Tempo was a big dog in the Derby, so rather cash in on the stud fees. Only very special horses will attempt it now, sadly." Shrek, all that's correct. We're aware of all that.
16:54
I'm just saying, if you ever wanna get new fans, though, to your sport, Triple Crown's kind of a thing. Needs to be. I've often saw my- I've often, often saw myself, Gil, as a great horse owner, you know?
17:05
Like, I think, I think I would look real good out the Kentucky Derby. You, have you really often saw yourself as a horse owner? I, I've thought about it a couple times. Wow.
17:11
It just feels like it's a hard business to get into, you know what I mean? [laughs] JD in Florida, "So after this French Open, how does Wimbledon follow this? Can't wait for the Dana Game segment with Fezzik later."
17:20
[laughs] Yeah. No, it can't. It can't possibly follow this.
17:23
By the way, uh, Sasha Zverev up two sets to none against Jakub Menšík, who VSiN subscribers remember we were betting as a big dog all the way back in February 2024 in Doha, had some big wins on Jakub Menšík all the way back then.
17:35
Um, last thing on the tennis 'cause we gotta talk about basketball here is I, I, I said it's, it's been a really good tournament, great based on how I've heard others have done.
17:44
I've never been more confident in the numbers. Um, so, like, just from a handicapping standpoint, the way that you do golf, the way that I do tennis- Mm-hmm... they really manifested very well.
17:54
And Walynska, I wanna say this, while I didn't have her before the tournament, a la Iga back in 2020, only Kostyuk and Swiatek had better raw clay numbers. The problem was, could I trust it?
18:04
Did I have-- I had humility in my numbers. Sure. I'm like, I'm not gonna back it sacredly. So that first match against, again, Xinwen Zheng, or Zheng Xinwen, pardon me, Zheng Xinwen, she wins and I hate myself, right?
18:16
'Cause she's over a $2 dog. I don't play it. We've better Five times since. Four and O currently. Plus 173 versus Mertens, minus 140 versus Sakkari, which is the only set she's lost, by the way.
18:29
Raducanu never lost a set. Wellenska lost that one set. We did better versus Parry, plus 102 winner versus Collins Gaia, plus 155 winner yesterday versus Schneider. We'll see if the plus 310 can get home.
18:40
That was like the, you know, you and I were texting last week, I think it was like Friday or Saturday or something. I'm like, I could, I'm like just looking at the golf leaderboard.
18:46
It was one of those weeks where y- you know, you, you have to be careful with that. Yes.
18:49
You know, you, whether you are sticking just to your numbers or you're mixing some of that in, and it was one of those weeks where I'm like, "If I just bet everybody that was in the- Oh... top 20 of my- Yeah...
18:59
model this week," they're like, "That's 18 guys on the leaderboard right now." If you are be- Couldn't finish that one...
19:03
if you, if you are rigidating numbers and handicapping and you, it is always good to have some humility in the numbers- Mm-hmm... right?
19:09
But it is also good to then, once you see evidence of those numbers manifesting, pounce on it, and that's what's happened here. I had a fun one yesterday. How about this JJ Spahn first round leader 40 to one?
19:20
Uh, it's f- it's fun till it gets dead heated four ways. Ugh. But it was, it was, I can't even complain, Gil, 'cause it was, it was a crazy finish for four guys to finish at 500.
19:31
You had Ryan Gerard bogey 17 to come back to the pack, and then a couple of these guy- like JJ Spahn hits an approach shot on 18 down a stroke. Hits an approach shot, almost went in the cup.
19:43
Would've sent him to six under, would [laughs] would've clinched it overall, but it was such a good shot just to put him in the mix, so good. First round leader, VSiN.com, make sure you follow. Zigzag tonight. Yes.
19:52
Spurs six-point favorites host the New York Knicks, who won game one, of course, 105 to 95 to a rest home court advantage in the best of seven NBA finals.
20:02
The proverbial must-win situation for the Spurs totals at 215 and a half, few points less than it was in game one. You backin' the Spurs here? Yeah, I'm backin' the Spurs. I'm, uh- I think I am, too...
20:13
too confident about this. And, uh, I don't know. I, this is where you get to the, the NBA finals games, Gil, right, where you get, you get very confident about. It's the, and it's the finals.
20:23
You said at the beginning of the show, I, you, you lose this game tonight, like this series- Oh, boy... is probably over. Oh, boy.
20:28
So it's like you're, I'm way too confident i, in a team that's going up against another team who's won 12 games in a row. Did you see the Jalen Brun- this is nothing to do with anything, other than I...
20:39
Did you see the Jalen Brunson thing at the end of the game the other night? There was the guy who ran on the court, right? They got rid of him. Mm-hmm. Um, and then Jalen Brunson got into it with fans on the front row.
20:50
Oh, yeah. I, I, I, I did see this, what, yesterday quick. I don't know. Brunson was having himself a game though, 'cause that was every...
20:57
You know, when he was getting beat up in the first half, and then even when he was making shots in the fourth quarter, it was turn to Scott Foster and start yelling at him at, about something.
21:06
So I, he was, yeah, he was not a happy camper that whole game. Couldn't really tell what was going. I, you know, early on he got hit hard a couple times. Yeah.
21:13
You knew he was yelling about that then, but like the second half, he kept turning over to the refs to yell at them.
21:19
Uh, if you're the Spurs, ooh, first thing you do differently is keep Dylan Harper in the game for the fourth quarter. That is, that wa- that, that was mind-blowing. I, yeah, absolutely, Gil.
21:29
I would think since this is, we're game two of the NBA finals, you're down 0-1 to, I, I, I haven't, I haven't made any of these bets.
21:37
But I would think after seeing a couple weeks of what De'Aaron Fox looks like in, I mean, it, it, I don't wanna say clearly, but it looks to me like he's still not healthy on that.
21:46
I mean, it's a, it's a high sprained ankle. This would keep him out for a couple weeks if it, if it was the regular season. Um, high ankle sprain.
21:53
So, I mean, I would sure think it means a lot more Harper minutes tonight, even if that, even if that means less Fox minutes. But def- you gotta get Harper out there.
22:00
He was the, i- in my opinion, he was their best player through three quarters. He was, and you and I have said the whole, the whole playoff run, he's their second-best player, period. Yes, yes.
22:08
So I don't, that was my, that was, that was baffling to me. I, you know, Fox, Vassell, Castle, Harper combined to go three for 19 from three. I'm hoping there's a bounce back there.
22:16
It was not a great game from Wemby, although I- I'm a little concerned about that. I will say concerns here for me on the Spurs side is Wemby and the energy has not really looked the same since game one of OKC.
22:31
It's just, he was so amazing there, and it's like, man, every one of these games you're kinda like, does he look a little tired at points?
22:37
Like- Well, but w- uh, how much of that is just our, our human brains, uh, given a narrative to try to make sense? So when they, when San Antonio lost game six- Mm-hmm... did they lose game six? Yeah.
22:48
Was it game six they lost at home? No, no, no. No, no, game- One game six, one game seven, one game five... game five. Yeah. Lost game five.
22:52
When they lost game five, remember everybody was like, "Oh, Wemby looks tired," right? Mm-hmm. It's like, okay, did he in game six and game seven? He didn't look tired to me.
23:00
So I, I think, right, with game one, maybe he was, but let's give the Knicks credit, right? Yeah. Like Karl-Anthony- No, they did a great job... Karl-Anthony Towns was great on defense, and they've got length.
23:13
They got bodies to throw at him. And, and I think Zach said it yesterday, the one thing the Spurs learned from that yesterday is Knicks ain't ever giving up. You're up four...
23:21
I mean, that's the thing about these games, right? The Spurs are up 14. We, we showed the stat yesterday, teams that are, that were trailing 14 plus- Yeah, yeah. Near...
23:32
in, in the playoffs, the Knicks are six and six in those games. The entire rest of the NBA since, what, 2024 in the playoffs, 10 and 100. Mm-hmm. Yeah. So- That's what it is... so I mean, come on. Yeah.
23:44
It's- They, they, they're, they're great. They've been great all postseason long. I expect better, better out of the Spurs team, for sure. I do, too. This is, I l- I do, too...
23:51
I laid it full game, uh, five and a half full game. I laid the three and a half first half. We talked about this yesterday. I, Spurs been the best first half team in the NBA all season.
24:00
Updated numbers through the playoffs, 61 and 33. They're up 23 units. The Knicks 40 and 50 over that ti- uh, over that time.
24:08
So yeah, I like the Spurs to bounce back, man, but I mean, at this point, Gil, we're talking about, talking about go, go to the, go to the face of the N- the, uh, t- team that has not lost in 12 games at this point.
24:20
12 in a row. I mean, it's over a month's time. It's wild. Well, Golden Knights had their seven-game streak, uh, seven-game winning streak snapped yesterday.
24:28
Spurs gonna try to do the same to the Knicks, who have a 12-game winning streak. Not just a 12-game winning streak, mind you, the greatest- Yes, yes...
24:36
12-game stretch- In the history of the NBA regular season or postseason when it comes to aggregate winning margin. Mm-hmm. Just let that sink in. And once again, Wemby, biggest game of your life. Let's go Spurs.
24:48
Got a ticket on you. Coming back on The Numbers Game. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. 20 leagues, one mission.
25:02
Just Win Bets, baby, is your premier source of daily sports betting picks. They break down the data so you can bet with confidence across the entire sports calendar.
25:09
Scan the QR code or visit justwinbetsbaby.com today and start betting smarter with Just Win Bets, baby. The name says it all. How many times did I say Just Win Bets, baby in that read?
25:19
I don't know, but justwinbetsbaby.com. [laughs] Go check it out. Uh, we get tweets via the book Rules for Society.
25:26
"I love the Crack segments as much as anyone, but sometimes I love how you subtly educate him on how he can be wrong.
25:32
There's few people in this world that have," [laughs] oh, this is very nice, "intelligence, tact, and common sense working all together. You're elite at your job." Thank you. I don't think I was...
25:40
I think, oh, we were talking about the Matt- Wow... the Matt Kalish conversation I think from yesterday. I don't think c- I don't think Crack was wrong.
25:47
Crack was just making a point that he, that he thought Kalish had a couple good points at some point in the whole thing, and then I just laid into Kalish, I think. Kind of. [laughs] It's just kind of really...
26:00
I mean, I- I tried to say it nicely. Yeah. Yeah. Um, this is, uh, let's see. This is from, uh, let's see. Oh, this is also from Shrek.
26:08
"Knicks, Knicks fans thinking they won a title after game one is like the French media thinking Mbappe is sabotaging France World Cup after playing 45 minutes in a friendly against Ivory Coast last night. LOL."
26:18
Ooh, I saw that, us France ticket holders. They went down to the Ivory Coast in a friendly, Gil. Ugh. Colin Murphy, "I feel your pain, Kelly. I had Gerard first round leader." That's brutal 'cause he bogeyed 17.
26:30
He had a one-shot lead on the, the rest of that group.
26:33
Nemo, "Ryan's voice seeing all the sharps love the under five and a half goals in these first two games while the squares keep cashing the overtakes is a thing of beauty. Sound the horn." Yeah.
26:41
[laughs] That's the other, that's of course the other thing I left out of that whole hockey thing- Yeah... which is the under going to die in that game. Two to nothing halfway through the, uh, third period. Man.
26:52
Um, ladies and gentlemen, let's talk some college baseball. Let's do it. Matt Grissom joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
26:58
You can follow him on Twitter at, uh, this is his second iteration of his, uh, of his Twitter. This is now @mgrissom. Mgrissom. He of course is the proprietor over there at collegebaseballinsiders.com.
27:11
Matt, good morning. Happy Super Regionals. Good morning. How you doing, man? I'm doing well. Survived the carnage of last week. Have a few futures tickets still alive.
27:22
Uh, thank you to the one-word answer in Georgia as we get to sweat now- Yes... Mississippi State coming to Athens for a Super Regional. That's right.
27:31
I asked, uh, Matt as he was going out, as we were going out last time, I was like, "Okay, who's winning this all? One-word answer." And he goes, "Georgia Tech." And I said, "Uh, that's not one word."
27:40
And he goes- [laughs]... "Okay, Georgia." So we got out of that. By the, by the way, before we get into what you're playing today in the Super Regionals, which now is, is no longer double elimination, right?
27:47
The Super Regionals are a best of three, uh, for each of these series. What was the biggest? You kinda called UCLA losing. You, you were sort of lukewarm on them.
27:58
Was it them to you, or I guess maybe we already answered it. Maybe it was Georgia Tech was the biggest surprise to you?
28:04
I think Georgia Tech definitely was the biggest shocker because I didn't think Oklahoma had the pitching.
28:11
Even if they could figure out a way to, like, steal one, I didn't think they could get into a, a three-game series with them essentially and win it, and lo and behold, they did. Uh, the next
28:25
shocking one I guess you could say is Texas A&M. Kinda laid an egg. You know, they were preseason last year top one or two depending on the source. And then Mike Early kinda turned it on late.
28:38
They didn't look great down the stretch, but they still figured out a way to get into that regional hosting seat.
28:44
And then you've got Southern Cal who was I think 1-11 in Quad 1 wins, comes into, to College Station and, and beats you. So, uh, hats off to Southern Cal. They're, uh,
28:57
they're primed to make a run with this pitching staff. I'll just put, put it that way before I get into the rest of the stuff. All right. Well, let's get to some of the series odds. Uh, let's, we'll flash up again.
29:06
There's eight of these. We'll flash up, uh, the first four on the screen here. Cal Poly's a big dog against West Virginia. USC a plus 210 versus North Carolina. Little Rock plus 260 dog at Troy in the best of three.
29:19
And then Ole Miss, hotty toddy, plus 155 at Auburn at SEC battle. Uh, USC-Carolina is where your series bet is, yes? Yes. I do like the Trojans.
29:32
I think it's shocking to me that North Carolina's throwing Ryan Lynch today instead of their ace Jason DeCaro. You've got USC throwing Mason Edwards who's the strikeout leader in the league. He's got 164 strikeouts.
29:45
It's the best by about 20-plus strikeouts. So I think he's gonna bounce back. He kinda got roughed up against Lamar last weekend. Only went four and a third, and I think had four walks and five strikeouts or vice versa.
30:00
I think he bounces back. This kid just does nothing but throw strikes.
30:03
He's averaging 10 strikeouts a game when he starts, and, uh, I, I just think this North Carolina offense can be cooled down against really good pitching, something they haven't really seen this season in the ACC.
30:18
And you also then are taking USC plus one and a half in game one then tonight in addition to the series? Yes.
30:26
Based on Mason Edwards starting against Ryan Lynch, I think it's just gonna put the Trojans in a position to be able to take game one and be in the driver's seat to win that series.
30:36
And then sticking with the Trojans, we have three Trojans in the final 16 here. Yes, we do. Uh, so I'm gonna try to refer to their city name and not the Trojans. [laughs] Uh, Little Rock plus two and a half.
30:47
It, we saw Murray State last year come in as a four seed. Now you've got two in St. John's and Little Rock. And of the two, I think Little Rock looks like they can actually belong.
30:58
If you recall last year, they took LSU, the eventual national champs, to the wire In that Baton Rouge regional and Little Rock just kind of is playing with a fire in their eyes.
31:09
They're, they're better at pitching than Troy over their last 10 games, which after last weekend I've, I've gone fully on board with the whole pitching staff. It is important.
31:20
I said it, it might not matter until Omaha, but they're proving time and time again that when you get into these situations, deep pitching staff is really all you have to have to be able to push through.
31:34
We saw Arkansas unable to do it. They couldn't find anybody out of that bullpen. And Lawrence to, to really push Kansas even with a 5-0 lead early on.
31:44
Uh, so I'm, I'm gonna go back to the well here with, with just really good pitching staffs. And Little Rock, in my opinion, better than Troy right now and they have nothing to lose.
31:55
They're playing with house money as a four seed. So, uh, give me Little Rock plus two and a half there. Okay.
32:01
Uh, just to be thorough, let's just throw out the series prices for the other four super regional s- uh, match-ups. Mississippi State and Georgia, that is really tightly lined. The most tightly lined of all these.
32:11
Georgia's a minus 150 favorite in their best of three against Mississippi State. Kansas minus 170 against Oklahoma in that best of three series. Texas series price minus 330 versus Oregon.
32:22
And Alabama six dollar favorite versus baseball school St. John's. Uh, those look about right to you? Yeah. What worries me is I've, I've got a lot of liability on Georgia and they are 4-0 this season.
32:37
They took a weekend series in Starkville. They swept Mississippi State 3-0, then beat them in the SEC tournament. And you know what they say, they may not say it, but it's hard to beat a team six times in one season.
32:50
[laughs] Yeah. Um, I, that does worry me a little bit. Mississippi State's starting to figure it out offensively. Their pitching staff, getting Ryan McPherson back is, is a good addition for them.
33:01
Thomas Valinkas, which if you haven't paid attention to Mississippi State, you will find it very odd. There are two brothers on that team.
33:09
One is a, an outfielder, I believe, and the other is a starting pitcher, and they both pronounce their last name differently. Come on.
33:17
As someone who follows a lot of tennis and is familiar with odd last names, I bet you've never come across that. No. One is Thomas Valencias and one is Vetus Valinkas. And, and it- You can't do that... it's... I know.
33:32
It's not allowed. It feels illegal, but- Yeah... they'll talk about it no less than two dozen times on the broadcast. [laughs] So just get ready. Um- Yeah...
33:41
it, it's just kind of one of those things now they have to, they have to preach about it ad nauseam. But, uh, I think Texas, that's the, the next most compelling one.
33:51
It kind of depends on what Longhorn's offense shows up. Oregon looked really good in basically an all pitching battle in their regional and they got through it with, with ease going 3-0.
34:02
So I think if Oregon can pitch well, they've got the offense salty enough to push Texas. So the plus 240, I, you may throw a little pizza money on that just to have something to sweat out in the second set of games.
34:17
And also, I know you were trying to explain to listeners last week kind of about how this sets up. So all you have to know right now is if they play games starting today, they're gonna be bracket one in Omaha.
34:30
If they start tomorrow, they're bracket two. Bracket one and bracket two, the only times they could meet each other are in the championship final.
34:39
So if you have not gotten into the futures market and you want a ticket, I like to try to get a team from both sides of the bracket.
34:47
So I, right now to me it's, it's probably gonna be Auburn, Ole Miss winner versus Mississippi State, Georgia winner in the championship final. Wow. Uh, unfortunately they have to play each other- Yeah...
35:00
this weekend and it's gonna be a really good sweat down the stretch. But Ole Miss, I think 20 to 1 right now. Oh. That seems so mispriced because it's- Man... it's a coin flip.
35:13
Uh, and I, I know I told you a couple weeks back, like Arkansas was the Ole Miss price, but them and, them and Ole Miss were still the, the two that had the best odds. So- It's good. It's good enough for me...
35:26
here we go. Riding, riding Ole Miss again. I'ma do it again. Here we go. Ole Miss. Uh, real quick one word answer. Uh, French Open's the most chaotic tournament we've ever seen in tennis.
35:34
Is this, so far through the regionals, about as chaotic as it's ever been? Yes. Yeah. When the two short shots go down in the first weekend, absolutely. It's awesome. Love it. Thank you, Matt. Appreciate it.
35:46
Collegebaseballinsiders.com. Coming back. MVP and the Am- [upbeat rock music]
36:02
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on a numbers game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Midlin in the hizzy. Yeah.
36:12
Do you wanna read, do you wanna read that, uh, text that Steve Fezzik just sent us? Nah, I'll let him talk about it later. Okay. It's, it's, it's funny when Craig and Fezz have different philosophies on things.
36:21
We're gonna- 'Cause usually they see, see things the same way. We're gonna need a few more segments with Steve today, or you're gonna need a bigger boat. Ah, could just someone, someone leave a camera and a mic on.
36:29
Like, Darnell, you might need to hang out here for a while. Just leave a camera and a mic on. We'll let him go for like two days straight. [laughs] Steve c- Steve's got a lot.
36:37
Jason McKinney on Twitter at, uh, TRH Golfer, "I have to say I'm a little upset with the show today.
36:43
It may have been a little impromptu, but Gilly spoke on tennis and Kelly spoke about golf, and I didn't see glow sticks or hear the country clubbing theme." Eh, we're, we're sticking to m- stick and move today, you know?
36:52
We're moving around quick. Yeah. Moving around quick. That takes a little while. Everybody's being so nice on, on Twitter today. Dar- Darnell's gotta hand out glow sticks, get everybody organized to be on time.
37:02
That's right. It's probably a whole process back there. I don't know. Darnell win another employee of the week, uh, from me Yes, I think so. Yeah. I did award that to someone the other day. No, that was last week.
37:13
I think that was last week. I brought it back and I gave it to Darnell. How about, how about this tweet? You'd think I wrote it yourself. Definitely not Chris Foster this week. Listen to this, Kelly.
37:20
I'm about to make you just g- Real Nicks, "I'm usually working at home watching on YouTube TV, but today I'm listening in my car on XM. Wow, Gilly, you have an amazingly smooth radio voice. You sound awesome.
37:32
I would say you have a face for radio, too, but I'm confident enough to say you're a handsome man. LOL." How about these tweeters today? Wow. Oh, you guys- No, it was- It must be Friday... it wa- you know what?
37:41
I'm gonna give you a compliment, too. I was wondering where that was going. Hmm.
37:44
It is the w- uh, you'll often hear people say this whether they work in radio or not, but it's the w- when you hear back your own voice, right, it's like it's terrible at first, then you kind of get used to it or whatever.
37:55
What's weird is lis- I feel that way about you now when I re-listen to things. I'm like, "Gil doesn't sound like that when I'm doing shows with him." You s- you sound way better, uh, uh, like, actually on air. Oh, uh.
38:05
Than next to me right now. Uh, thank you. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's a compli- you would rather have it that way. I guess. Than you sound better, b- you sound great to me three feet away, but not good on air.
38:15
That would not be a good thing. Noemu Doug, "Thank you, Vsan, for college baseball. ESPN is showing clips of the '91 NBA Finals 15 minutes before first pitch on their channel.
38:26
Thank you, Gil, for college baseball coverage with real analysis." Let's thank Matt Grissom. Yes. But, but I hear you. The, I thought the- Yeah... I thought the game one pregame was pretty brutal.
38:37
I was like, I'll buy, I, I, I was- It's, you, the Ve- let's do a Venn diagram thing. The Venn diagram pe- uh, thing of, of, of one circle is people who listen to this show or listen to Vsan. Mm-hmm.
38:46
And then the other circle is people who watch NFL pregame shows or NBA pregame shows or NBA halftime shows. I don't know if those circles meet at all.
38:56
I don't think they really do either, except for I, I, I think, like, that, that's a good example of game one or, like, maybe these major sporting events, right?
39:02
Where I feel like I, I had exhausted listening to every NBA podcast that I normally do, listening to every, uh, Vsan show that I normally do for leading up to that game, and then finally like an hour and a half out, I was like, "All right.
39:15
[laughs] Like, I am good on all my betting content. Let's see what the pregame show looks like." And I'm like, "Oh, God. This, back to Vsan. Like, let's, do, get me out of here." Who annoys you the most? Most of them.
39:27
I don't, uh, there, like, there's not really- [laughs] Try to get Kelly... so it's hard to choose. Try to get Kelly to name names. I, the problem is there's people, like, I lo- I like Perk.
39:34
I think he's entertaining, but he's, he's gotten way into, like, the hot take game, where it's just every day he's gotta have one outlandish hot take. Yeah.
39:42
And it doesn't matter what he said the day before or two days before that. Uh- Mal- Malika's the best. You know that. Malika, best host out there. One of the best hosts out there. We love you, Malika. Yeah.
39:50
She's amazing. Come on the show anytime. She's amazing. Um, Aaron Judge.
39:54
The big news in baseball, Aaron Judge diagnosed, and, and this was sort of, I mean, they were sort of talking around this for a few days, but finally it came out yesterday.
40:04
Aaron Judge has been diagnosed with a stress fracture on the first rib on his right side. Oof. That does not sound fun. Yankees announced it yesterday.
40:12
He will be, [clears throat] pardon me, he will be re-imaged in approximately four to six weeks. That means it's four to six weeks minimum that he will be out of the lineup. Four to six weeks- Hey, Gil...
40:23
for those scoring at home, that is, uh, one sixth to one third. No, that, let me say that again. Hold on. Doop-a-doop-a-doop. No, that's, yeah, that's one sixth to about, you know, one quarter- Hmm...
40:39
of a Major League Baseball season. It's pretty significant. Yeah. Hey, real quick before we move on. Uh, what, uh, where's your first rib? Do we start on top- Oh, that's a great question... or down below?
40:47
You know what I'm saying? I'm gonna say we start on top. I think I'm gonna agree with you. I have no idea, though. I could be very wrong. I have no idea. Yeah. Um, so anyway, he is out, and take a look at this.
40:58
This is a great job by DK Insights. These, this is the odds movement now. Pre-Judge injury, the arrow, then going to what they, what those odds are now. Bobby Witt Jr.
41:08
of the Kansas City Royals becomes your short shot, but not by much. He goes from plus 290 to plus 140. Yordan Alvarez, who was right behind him before Judge's injury at plus 320, still very close behind. Bobby Witt Jr.
41:21
now at plus 155. Ben Rice, who, Will Hill has a massive ticket on Ben Rice at, like, I wanna say 150 to 1. Don't hold me to that, but it's triple digits for sure. It's something like that, yeah.
41:33
Uh, Ben Rice goes from 16 to 1, Judge's teammate, to 4 to 1, third position. Nick Kurtz, 14 to 1 to plus 950, and then Judge, the opposite direction, from plus 110 to 50 to 1. 'Cause again,
41:50
anywhere between one-third to one-fourth of a Major League Baseball season, and then you re-image. Also, there's, like, there's no, I feel like we have to say this every time.
41:58
Even if you love Aaron Judge and you think that number's gotten too long and you think he has enough time to make up for it, there's still no reason to put this bet in right now, 'cause that 50 to 1's not going anywhere.
42:07
You could wait three weeks and get an update, and you're probably gonna get a better number. So let's, so let's just sort of contextualize this American League versus National League.
42:13
So National League, we've, we've done multiple segments on this unbelievable NL Cy race. Right. Where it's Sanchez and Shohei and Miz and Harrison and Wheeler and on and on till the break of dawn.
42:27
There's like eight of these guys, right? And in the American League Cy, it's like, well, it's Schlittler at the top, but, like, who knows? Somebody's, somebody else could win it easily. Same thing with an MVP, right?
42:39
Shohei's always gonna be the favorite of the National League. He's seven to one. I don't know if you know this. He not only hits, he also pitches, Kelly. Not sure if you're aware of that. What? Yes.
42:48
And Kyle Schwarber is a distant 14 to 1. Everybody else is 30 to 1 or longer. You're not allowed to do that. [laughs] Let's check the rules. [laughs] American League MVP is similar to the, the contrast in Cy Youngs.
42:59
The American League MVP versus the National League MVP, it's very similar in the fact that the American League, it's like pick your poison here. I have no idea. C- can I ask you a, a very generic opening question here?
43:09
Yes. Like, okay, we've reset odds. Completely get it. We all know, know and love Aaron Judge. He's been awesome, has won this award before. Are we talking Bobby Witt Jr., Yordan Alvarez, Alvarez?
43:19
Those names have been up there on this board in the pa- in past seasons, for sure. Also, let me just, let me just before you- Mm-hmm... even continue the sentence, let's point out that Bobby Witt Jr.
43:26
and Yordan Alvarez play for really bad baseball teams. [laughs] That's kind of where I was going with this. Okay. Oh, I'm sorry. No, no, but you're fine. Combined with really bad baseball teams- Yeah...
43:35
just from what we've seen out of guys like them, I'll throw in José Ramírez, 'cause I've got a ticket on him now, thanks to, uh, thanks to our friend Joe Sheehan.
43:43
Um, e- uh, just compared to past seasons, are, are they having better seasons than they have over the past couple? Or are these kind of just, uh- No, they're not. That's kind of what... Okay.
43:55
Are these kind of like average Bobby Witt Jr., Yordan Alvarez seasons? Well, Yordan has had, has had way better, right? Like, I mean, Yordan, he's, he's playing really well. Don't get me wrong. But Yordan has had just...
44:05
Both Witt Jr. and Yordan Alvarez have had stretches in previous seasons where they were otherworldly. Yeah. What was that, the late July? Remember J- remember the Bobby Witt Jr.- Yeah, yeah...
44:14
stretch in, yeah, June, July last year or something? It was just insane. So they haven't done that quite yet. O- okay. So which is kind of leading to my question of, do you e- can you even consider guys like that?
44:23
Or should you just be looking at longer shots in this market right now? I mean, the Royals are 25 and 38. The Astros are 28 and 36. You know, could they turn it around? Of course. It's early June.
44:34
But right now they play for really bad teams. And MVP typically, right? Not always. Hmm. But typically you gotta... It usually correlates with- Right... your team being good, right? Best player, good team.
44:46
The question is Ben Rice. It's so funny hearing, uh, [laughs] hearing Will. Will's trying to talk it out of existence. He's trying to reverse jinx it. He's like, "Oh, there's no way he can win.
44:53
There's no way he can win." Because he needs to hit one of these long shots. He's had some great bets that didn't get home. Ben Rice at 4 to 1, well, a- as, as interesting a bet as any at this point.
45:03
I, listen, pre-season though, let's go back to March. Two really sort of popular names were Nick Kurtz- Mm-hmm... and Julio Rodriguez- Mm-hmm... who are, who are right after that.
45:14
And remember, Kurtz wasn't hitting home runs at all at the beginning of the season. Plus 950 now. Julio is, I think my guy in the MLB draft that we did here in Vegas, I think I have Julio 22 to 1. Um, remember Trout.
45:28
If Mike Trout were to do something between now and the end of time, I know their team sucks too. Ooh. Ooh. He would be sort of that, that retroactive, hey, what a great story- Right... this would be kind of thing.
45:39
But he's, uh, is... There's nothing there yet. Okay. You know? I know, but I think that's worth bringing up. Yeah.
45:44
Because if this is kind of what the field's looking like, you know, down to the, down to the, down the stretch here, and you're talking about a bunch of guys at the top of the board that are already on not good teams, then fine, Mike Trout being on a bad team shouldn't matter as much and we're just comparing stats.
45:58
I don't know. I mean, I don't have a bet. I, I just, you know, I'm pointing out the, uh, the movement in all of these. But if you're asking me for a bet, I just, I legitimately don't have one at the current moment.
46:08
Which is okay. You don't have to have one in every single market. But, like, a- American League MVP and American League Cy right now, I, I...
46:16
Uh, there's no particular logic I would have to betting any of th- any, any particular long shot, let's put it that way.
46:23
Yordan Alvarez, by the way, 21 homers on the season, two shy of Kyle Schwarber for the Major League League, but leads the American League, uh, with 21 dingers at this point.
46:34
Um, hell of a season for Yordan, if he continues that. Voters love the long ball. Coming back, Chris Fallica, multiple sports, including the Belmont next.
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