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Jun 6, 2024
A Numbers Game | June 6, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | June 6, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:33
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. All right, Thursday morning, downtown Las Vegas.
0:13
I am not Gil Alexander. I'm Jarret Smith, in for Gil the next few days. This is a numbers game, uh, powered by ZYN Nicotine. Um, I didn't, I didn't have any nicotine on my walk this morning, but Kelly Bidlin is here.
0:23
Kelly, were you, uh, dabbling? I, I... So I saw something unique this morning when I was walking across Fremont Street. [laughs] No way. 6:30- You saw something weird on Fremont Street at 6:00 in the morning?
0:33
[laughs] And I've done this, I've done this show a few times now, and I have not yet seen this. It was a, a, a lady walking her baby in a stroller at 6:30 in the morning down Fremont Street. Oh, gosh. Oh, gosh.
0:45
I've never seen that before. I've seen a lot of intriguing characters walking across the street. That's a good way to describe it.
0:50
You know, usually they're, they're setting up for their various shows or they're street performing things, or there's security or, you know, people just kind of grifting around.
0:57
But I've never seen [laughs] a mom, baby stroller, just cruising down Fremont Street at 6:30 in the morning. Yeah, that's a little terrifying.
1:06
The one that, the one that I had to stop for last week was when I saw a, a older couple, uh, I will say, kind of, kind of doing like the mall power walk on Fremont. Where- I guess it's a good place to get a workout in.
1:17
Well, I was like, "Okay." It's hot outside. I was like, "It c- This should make sense. This should make sense. This is just not what you see on Fremont Street at 6:30." [laughs] Yeah. No, it was unique.
1:26
But we'll, we'll get to more pressing matters in just a moment. We have a fun show planned. Kelly booked a great show. We're gonna have Zachary Cohen on bottom of the hour, talk a little NBA.
1:34
We had some big news come out of the NBA overnight, which we'll get to in just a moment. Stormy Bonatony's gonna come on in our 8:00 Pacific hour, talk some NHL, and she'll have some UFL as well, and some VSiN history.
1:45
So fun story, been working at this network now for two years. Besides Stormy's co-host on the Lombardi Line, Mike Lombardi, the only person I've yet to do an on-air segment with is Stormy and Mike Lombardi.
1:56
Ah, there we go. So you didn't know that before you booked the segment. History. But I was texting her yesterday. We're very excited. We're not gonna do anything special.
2:03
We're just gonna do what we normally do, which is talk about sports. But just, you know, it, it was fun. I've never... Two years, we're friends. There you go. Never had a chance to work with her.
2:11
Um- UFL Conference championship games- Yes... this weekend. That will change today. We're both on the Panthers. We'll tell you why coming up in our 8:00 hour. But the overnight stuff, I...
2:21
So I, I did get home relatively late last night. I was hanging out in New Y- at New York, New York. You know, there's no place like home, right? Um, doing, doing a little- I haven't been there in so long. [laughs] It...
2:31
You know, it's funny because it, it actually is one of the last, like, theme hotels in Vegas now. Mirage is about to shut down. You got Luxors is kind of kicking still, but Circus Circus. [laughs] I also appreciate...
2:41
I don't know, I appreciate the cheesy- Yeah. Oh, oh... the cheesy theme. You know what I mean? Like- Times Square hot dogs Yeah, yeah... like, that doesn't exist in real New York, by the way. Um- I appreciate that.
2:49
Like, the Venetian with, with the, the sky walk Venetian's still themed... like, I love that Venetian's- Like, I love that stuff... still themed. I guess technically Mandalay, but we don't consider those themes.
2:57
Eh, not really. Like, they're kind of just, like, tropical. Yeah, right. I guess Venetian is themed. I, I put- Venetian's the... Yeah... I put Venetian as themed.
3:03
But now that Mirage is going away, it's, it's, it's one of the last jewels. But, um, so I was out relatively, out relatively late last night. I didn't see this news until I woke up early this morning.
3:15
Um, but we thought the Lakers were going to bring in JJ Redick.
3:19
We, we, we saw all the reports and I guess more the, you know, brotherly love between him and LeBron when they were kind of doing their little, uh, behind the scenes video stuff.
3:29
And everyone just assumed based on the early reports that JJ Redick was gonna be the head coach of the Lakers. No one really gave it a second chance because I think we all thought, "Hey, that makes sense." Mm-hmm.
3:38
Like, the head coach isn't a huge deal anyways. LeBron likes JJ. Okay, that's fun. Um, yeah. Well, then Shams took it a step further yesterday when the, you know, really reporting those talks were heating up. Yeah. So.
3:49
And I kind of put it to bed. Like, in my mind, I'm like, "All right, that's kind of the way that story's gonna end, and let's move on with our life." Well, we got a curveball dropped into the market today. Yes, we did.
3:59
I didn't see it... I don't think it's gonna impact the market too much, but, uh, this is a big story. Dan Hurley, of course, back-to-back national champions with UConn, cashing in his chips, literally.
4:10
Um, he is going to sign, from what we're hearing, a lucrative, lucrative multi-year deal with the Lakers to be the next head coach. And I, I think this is a big story for two reasons. First of all,
4:24
what changed between the Redick news and all of a sud- I mean, it was a very short turnaround from us basically thinking JJ Redick was a done deal, and, and now it not being [laughs] the Lakers going in a completely different direction.
4:38
I think that's one part of the story. The other part of the story we talked about before we came on, the continuing theme of college coaches kind of bailing, frankly, or
4:51
swiftly moving away from the college game because of- Mm-hmm... maybe some things that are happening with college basketball, college sports, that is changing the metrics of kind of how coaches coach, recruit, et cetera.
5:01
Let's start with the first part of the story. Uh, what happened? Like, I, I mean, w- was it just a move by Hurley's agent to kind of get some more...
5:10
I, I, I don't know because that was a really quick shift from Redick to Hurley over the last 24 hours. It s- I mean, it sounds like there have been talks going on from Woj's reporting- Okay...
5:18
this morning between the two sides. I just think it, I think it really heated up here recently.
5:23
Um, I mean, Jarret, I, I w- I, I think just on the face of it, if I was to say, "Hey, you got a c- like, you got a game tomorrow with the Lakers. Who's a better coach?" [laughs] Hurley. "JJ Redick or Hurley?"
5:33
I think that's an easy answer, right? Not even close. We're, we're so- One of them's an... One of them seems to be really good at TV. Yeah, yeah. I bet ESPN's happy now they get to keep their analyst, right?
5:41
Yes, probably. Uh, I mean, this is far from done, right? Yeah. The report is the talks are, you know, the Lakers preparing a massive long-term offer to bring in UConn's Dan- Wow... Dan Hurley.
5:51
So far from done, but I, I mean, I think he is- He is the guy that I'm guessing, I'm guessing JJ Redick was always a part of the conversation, but probably knew exactly where he stood, uh, better than the rest of us of where, who else they were talking to.
6:06
Um, so I like Dan Hurley. I think it's really interesting. I think the college part's interesting. We- Yeah... we can get to that in a sec.
6:11
The, I mean, from an NBA perspective, would this really ma- I mean, I think it's, a- and you know, you're a college guy way more than me, but okay, it's, it's very hard to miss what Dan Hurley's impact has been on UConn's program and the type of coach he is.
6:25
He's selling as high as he could possibly sell. Exactly. And I think when you're bringing him into the Lakers, you are gonna be building that franchise more around him, when it's been a lot- Yeah... about what LeBron is.
6:37
And what this reminds me of a lot, Jared, it, it, it is, it's LeBron going to Miami and going into, you know, going into a system that- Culture... was not all about him, and a culture that's not- Yeah... all about him.
6:50
Now, what's different this time around is, well, we don't know how much lo- longer LeBron's gonna be around, right? I, where my initial reaction would be this sounds great off the top.
6:59
What's gonna be, what's it gonna be like after th- year three with LeBron and Dan Hurley? But I don't know that there's gonna be a year three.
7:05
I don't, I, I, if I took, if I would bet the under on two and a half years with LeBron- Me too... in, in, in the Lakers. I, I think
7:11
my initial r- like gut reaction is this is the next step po- this is the first building block post-LeBron. Agreed. And [laughs] maybe next year he won't be around, who knows?
7:24
I mean, have we not seen this with LeBron before? Um, I, how it's gonna impact the Lakers, they're obviously going to a more gritty culture. Yeah. They want culture.
7:35
When you bring in a guy like Dan Hurley, and the one thing I love about Dan, and I actually, it's funny, every now and again, I'll go through my drafts on Twitter, and I'll look through things that I wrote up and didn't send out.
7:48
One of the things recently, and this was like a week ago, I was doing this, I was scroll- and I, I save, like I, I, every time, I use my Twitter drafts as like my notepad. Like if I have a thought- That sounds dangerous.
8:00
[laughs] Yes. And I, I'm gonna do a game one day where if I get enough likes, I'll drop, like New Year's Eve, like before the ball drops, I'll drop all my drafts.
8:09
But one of the drafts I had saved recently, and this is just completely random that it happened to be a Dan Hurley thing, was Dan Hurley talking about like accountability and like how he builds a program. Yeah.
8:20
And I remember it was like a, if you want accountability, Dan Hurley's your guy. Like, and this is, I kind of think that there, a- and frankly, I think it's kind of the way the NBA needs to go.
8:31
The NBA needs more coaches that are strong voices that can control the narrative. What are we seeing in the league? The players have so much power, it's beyond belief.
8:44
Now, just because you hiring a guy like Dan Hurley doesn't mean he's gonna immediately take over power, but I think what this shows is a, is a mindset shift with the Lakers.
8:53
They've had a lot of figureheads in their head coaching job over the last decade, you know, few years that LeBron's been in town. It's been a lot of guys that are yes men to LeBron. This is not that.
9:04
This is the opposite. Now, again, we don't know if this is 100% confirmed yet, but it feels like this is the right move for the Lakers.
9:12
It does feel like this is a move that is kind of signifying the end of one era and the start of a new era.
9:19
The start of an era where the Lakers are trying to become a little more like those Phil Jackson teams, where they had gritty, heart, determination.
9:26
Now, they also had Shaq and Kobe, but it was a culture that I don't think the Lakers, frankly, any NBA team has, outside of maybe the Knicks. Like d- I, I'm trying to think, and you cover the NBA more. Miami.
9:38
It, it, Miami, sure. The, uh, there's not a lot of teams right now that kind of have that culture. But maybe the Lakers are trying to build something.
9:47
Speaking of culture, I think this actually, you know, the, the other part of the college sports news from yesterday that goes hand-in-hand with what we're seeing, um, was the college football playoff announcement. And
10:01
the reason why I tie this in is because college sports right now, college sports is like semi-pro. Like a- I, I think when you look at, so they dropped the college football playoff schedule yesterday.
10:14
My initial reaction was, "Whoa. Ho-ho." You get eight college football playoff games in a nine, I think nine or 10-day window between December 20th and New Year's Eve. So it's basically an 11-day window.
10:31
But you get eight college football playoff games in a, basically Christmas week. I mean, any argument against this thing expanding [laughs] has to die after seeing the schedule.
10:45
Like any response, Kelly, I have to the, "Uh, expansion's gonna ruin it." Did you see the schedule? It's gonna ruin it? Yeah. You're crazy.
10:54
I mean, I think the, for, for ca- for more casual guys like me with college football, I love this. Oh. Like this is great. Incredible. Like this is an incredible schedule.
11:02
I understand though, I, I, I, I, I, I do, I still go back to the, so why am I supposed to care about the regular season though? Like that, like that's gonna be a continued problem- Yeah... in college football.
11:11
I, I, I think that's, I think what it does is it takes away the extreme urgency. Mm. Where if you lose one game, you're out. I think now teams can drop a game and still be okay, but there's more than one game.
11:28
Like there's 11 more games after that. So if a team loses a game in the first week or two, well then the whole rest of the sea- Again, we'll get into it a little bit more on the other side. College sports is changing.
11:40
The news we heard yesterday blowing up the landscape. More of a numbers game after this.
11:45
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12:12
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12:20
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12:27
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12:50
I am not Gil Alexander. Um, he is off for the r- I don't know, is he back next week? He's back. He's back. He's back on Monday, yep. Gil is back on Monday. Um, I am in today and tomorrow. Kelly Bidlin here as well.
13:00
We're at the D in downtown Vegas, got a great show coming up, uh, in just a few minutes. On the other side of, uh, the next break, we'll have Zachary Cohen. We are talking about the NBA finals.
13:09
They do [laughs] finally, they st- the NBA finally- [laughs]... starts back up again tonight. Um, it feels like just a crazy long break because we were...
13:19
So we got kind of a taste of it and, and I, I always laugh at this time of year. I call it the doldrums, right? And that's just like a fancy word for just not a whole lot going on. Um, we are there right now.
13:31
I, I know we have exciting NBA and NHL games still to come, but this week was the appetizer of the doldrums. There was no NHL, no NBA the whole week. It's Thursday, we're finally getting our first game.
13:43
You're stuck with baseball. WNBA, which I- I enjoy- Yep... handicapping, it's not as sexy of a watch.
13:50
It's, it's a tough watch sometimes, but it is a fun league to bet because I do think there's value there, and any time there's value, it's, to me, that's dollar sign fun.
13:59
But we got the first taste of, well, if you don't like watching baseball, you ain't gonna be very happy. [laughs] Um, the, but more time on our hands to get errands done, right?
14:09
Go to, like, Bed Bath & Beyond, get your, you know- Oh, man... you know, get your stuff done.
14:13
[laughs] For me, it's been that, Jared, with, I mean, with the, I mean, we're talking, you're watching NBA games almost- All year... every single night- Yeah... since October.
14:22
And what was it last Wednesday where we had the first, like, night where there wasn't a game, right? Yeah, the night, the first night off- 'Cause they finished up... 'cause the staggered schedule... yeah.
14:28
And I remember then it's, I feel like it's been like this every day where I'm like, "Oh, okay, great," like, you're not, you're not rushing to get things done before games tip. Like, I can- Yeah...
14:35
take longer, go out to dinner. But then you sit down on the couch on the other night [laughs] and you're like, "All right, so what, wait, what am I supposed to watch now?"
14:41
[laughs] Yeah, I went out and, and I'm, I'm not a going out guy on the w- on school nights, especially when I have an early show. I actually went out. I l- I actually left my apartment last night because I got bored.
14:50
Monday through Tu- Monday and Tuesday, I was sitting around staring at the wall. You know, I do these first inning bets in baseball, which are awesome. They're so much fun, but it's not a very big time commitment.
14:59
It's like 15 minutes and it's over. So, um, more time on your hands, which means idle hands sometimes is the tool of the devil, so be sure you're not betting on stupid stuff. Yeah.
15:09
Um, like, I don't know- That's a great point... the overnight French Open lines.
15:12
[laughs] I remember when I used to live in New York and the Australian Open would be on at 2:00 in the morning in, like, January, and yeah, I've had some rough, rough live betting just firing off on...
15:25
So but that's what happens when you have idle hands- Yeah... is you bet on stupid stuff. Um, but we will get a full NBA finals, uh, preview coming up with Zachary Cohen on our next segment.
15:33
I, I guess we can just start, um, and kind of touch on what we expect in the series. I mean, I feel like it's the Super Bowl.
15:40
I've had my, I have had my opinions on this series widely documented over the last few days on various different shows. I'll just rehash them now.
15:47
Boston- Yeah, we haven't gotten a chance to talk about it, Jared We haven't gotten... That's, that's good. That's fair. Yeah. That's true. I have no idea where your head's at on this. Boston's really good.
15:53
[laughs] How's that? Uh, you're the first person to say it, Jared. Is that sound analysis? You're the first person.
15:58
I mean, I, I, I, I took a bath in the Pacer series 'cause I thought at one point Boston was gonna drop a game. Yeah.
16:04
They didn't, but I don't think I was wrong with the analysis, whereas Boston should have dropped at least a game. They didn't,
16:12
and now I, I don't wanna say false bravado because I think that's kind of how I've characterized the Celtics all year. They're more talented than everyone else. They know it. Mm-hmm.
16:23
It's like the hot girl that walks into the bar. They know they're gonna get, uh, all the guys that are gonna a- buy, ask them to buy them drinks. Yep.
16:28
The question is, are they gonna be able to strike up a conversation and actually talk to someone, or is it just gonna be push them aside? And what I mean by that, are the Mavericks a game suitor here?
16:39
I, I think they're the most game of all the suitors that have tried to wrangle in the Celtics during this playoff run, but there's warts there, especially when you get that depth issue that I think with Boston getting Porziņģis back adds a layer that we haven't seen in the playoffs yet.
16:55
I think, I think that's, I mean, that's part, uh, that, that's something we haven't really t- discussed a ton- No... on this show, but it's- 'Cause we don't know how much he's gonna play or what the impact is.
17:02
We haven't seen it. Well, it, well, wait, yeah, Porziņģis, I mean, I think he is the biggest factor in this series. Yes, agreed. Like, the biggest.
17:07
A- and, and that's not trying to minimalize anything o- on either side of the ball.
17:12
But if he is onl- if we're only seeing him for 20 minutes a game, uh, that is far different than a fully healthy Kristaps Porziņģis and what he brings both offensively and defensively to this team.
17:23
The depth stuff is interesting, Jared, 'cause I, I do... I, I don't actually know how... Uh, like, getting Porziņģis back is huge twofold because of that, right?
17:31
Like, I don't know that there's many guys off of Boston's bench that they're really willing to trust in this series not named Payton Pritchard and Al Horford. That's about as- Yeah... deep as they're gonna wanna go.
17:41
Um, a- and Dallas not much further either. We haven't even really seen Tim Hardaway being a- be able to get on the court much.
17:47
But I, I do think if we talk about that from that side, I do think Dallas has a little bit more depth. They've shown the willingness to play, uh, a few more of these guys. They very well. And you know what?
17:56
I, I think getting, uh, Lively a week off helps, right? He was r- I mean, he got abused in that Minnesota series. Well, and Luka, right? I mean, Luka and the knee. Oh, absolutely. Yeah. That goes without saying.
18:04
But I think Lively is a guy that- The one thing I think Boston lacks, and Indiana could not take advantage of this, they don't have a bruiser. Mm-mm. They don't have an enforcer.
18:14
And that's where I think, for example, and I'm sorry all the New York haters I'm going here, but if it was Knicks-Celtics and not Pacers, like, if the Knicks didn't just completely fall apart those last two games, get banged up, find a way to make it through that series and face the Celtics relatively healthy,
18:31
I, like, they have enforcers. You know, they have guys like Josh Hart and OG Anunoby who are willing to get dirty. Mm-hmm. And I didn't see that with the Pacers down the stretch.
18:41
It looked like they just kind of wilted- Yeah... under the pressure. They didn't have those guys that when the going got tough, the tough gets going, right? Whereas I think Dallas has a little bit more of that.
18:51
The size with Lively, I know he's a rookie, but they have a little bit more girth and a little bit more tenacity, I would use- Yeah... the word to them. Kyrie's a little more experienced.
19:02
The Pacers just didn't have the calm, cool, collected, tough-nosed guys down the stretch, the intangible guys, to get over the hump. Dallas, I don't think is, is overflowing with that.
19:15
Like, Dallas, I think, is still a talented team that has polish and needs to, you know, kind of sh- spread their wings and fly, but they're a little grittier than I think the Pacers are. Oh, y- yeah, yeah, I'd...
19:25
Yeah, 100%. And what we've... I mean, we've really seen that defense improve here through, I mean, c- through the- Yeah... end of the regular season and into the playoffs. It keeps getting better and better.
19:33
Now, I do think this is, this series is gonna be a much, a much bigger test for the Mavericks from that standpoint because the Celtics...
19:40
Celtics, w- one of the special, most special things about the Boston Celtics, especially with Kristaps Porziņģis, is you are five w- a 5 out, right? Yeah.
19:48
You've got five guys that can shoot from out- That can all shoot... outside, and that stre- that pulls away Lively and Gafford away from the rim- Yep...
19:54
where they have been so good a- this whole playoffs and haven't really had to do that in the Western Conference playoffs at all.
20:01
So that part of it's gonna be really fascinating to me, Jeremy, because they've been able to really kind of bunch up that defense and protect the rim.
20:08
And when you don't really have guys attacking it a- as often as Boston, uh, w- will not, they w- they'll be sticking out, sticking out on the perimeter so often, it, it's gonna be interesting to me.
20:18
I think that I g- I am in the camp that you're gonna see Gafford start these games. I wouldn't be shocked if he's not starting come game four, game five.
20:26
Regardless of him starting or not, I think Lively's gonna get way more minutes. Yeah. Where we've kind of seen them sort of even.
20:33
I think it's gonna be way more Lively this series because he has that athleticism to get out to the perimeter and cover- Yeah... guys like Porziņģis that I think is gonna be able to help, uh, big time.
20:43
The one, it, the one bet I did make for game one, and we can go over all the series stuff here- Sure... uh, here as well, but I, I did bet the over, um, yesterday. Okay. We ended up talking about that a little bit.
20:53
I, I bet over 214 and a half. I think even 215 and a half is still an overlook for me. I think we, we've seen these teams come out early, uh, i- in these series, and i- it's, it's, it...
21:03
I mean, I, the old mantra, look overs, look overs early, look unders later- Yep... in the series.
21:07
I think that- Do you think the r- the long layoff is gonna imp- like, I was thinking a first quarter under, but then live over. Well- That was, like, my- That could work, but we, we, we've seen-... gut instinct.
21:17
It, yeah. Oh, it could go the other way... we have seen Boston in these game ones, like, come out- Just explode... like, crazy in the first quarter. Yeah. Yeah. So I, I'm kind of interested to see...
21:25
I'm, I'm int- honestly interested to see how that shapes. 'Cause both teams kind of had the same layoff. Mm-hmm. Like, it wasn't... I think it was, like, one or two days.
21:31
Like, and once you get past, like, two days off, the difference- Yeah... between three and four is just, it's not a big de- I think both teams have had at least four days off, and I think Boston's had six. Yep.
21:42
So we'll see who comes out. The number hasn't moved. Six, six and a half. We saw Circo open six, went to six and a half. We saw some buyback. Um, the DraftKings splits on vsin.com right now are pretty heavy public dog.
21:55
Like, Dallas right now getting 70% of the bet, 64% of the handle on the, on the spread. Um, the money line is a little bit more even, but, um, Dallas is still getting...
22:04
Considering Boston has been dominant this entire postseason, what, they've dropped two games? I think it's fair to say public dog is, is pretty alarming tonight.
22:14
It makes me, uh, think that the Celtics might be the right side in game one. Um, and also the Celtics were what? Laying seven to Denver earlier this year at home? Se- I think seven and a half.
22:23
[laughs] Yeah, I think- Creeping out to, yeah... I think laying six to Dallas is probably a fair- I mean, I, look, I think that is the single most thing that is, that is troubling- Yeah...
22:32
that's tough for, for big NBA bettors in the books to figure out, is how to properly adjust the Dallas Mavericks- The Mavericks... power rating through the playoffs.
22:39
We'll, we'll ask Zachary Cohen, see if he has any thoughts on the other side. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:55
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23:43
Warning: this product contains nicotine. Nicotine is an addictive chemical. Thursday morning, downtown Las Vegas, Jarret Smith in for Gil Alexander on a Numbers Game. Kelly Bidlin here as well. We are live at the D.
23:56
And joining us now, he does fantastic work, VSiN senior editor, and we've got a lot to get to today. His name is Zachary Cohen. Follow him on social media on X at bettingonX.
24:06
Very, uh, uh, keen of you, Zach, to change your handle to bettingonX. Did you pre-up that before, uh, Elon made the switch there? No, I did it like the day of or the day after, I forget. Smart.
24:18
I didn't know it was gonna changing it to X, so yeah, I was just like, I didn't like my original handle.
24:22
I had an underscore in there that was always confusing, so yeah, I was just like, "Well, so let's change this right now. Let's capitalize." It's a smart move. I, I think I was with Zack.
24:30
I think we were doing a Hardwood Handicappers podcast- Yeah... when you... I'm pretty sure it was day of, Zack. You were all over it. Smart. The real question I have though now is do you regret it at all?
24:39
Because like I, I don't know about you guys, but I don't call it X. I don't, I don't- I barely know anybody who calls it X. Eh, Zack, what do you think? I don't regret it.
24:47
It, it just makes it sound like I'm betting on something either way, like X could be like- Yeah... you know, like in a math problem. So I was f- I was fine with that. Uh, yeah, I d- I don't regret it at all.
24:55
Yeah, the math nerds aren't gonna like it, but that's okay. [laughs] They rarely like anything. Um- Plus X gonna give it to you, right? X, I was exa- I was thinking exactly that.
25:03
[laughs] All right, um, I, I was pulling up your, uh, article right now. You can go to vsin.com. You can check out Zack's, uh, prop and, uh, series bets for, uh, game one of the NBA Finals, right?
25:14
We were talking about this pre-, uh, during the commercial break. Finals for the NBA, final for the Stanley Cup. I know the hockey people get really upset when you call it the finals. But it is the finals in the NBA.
25:25
Um, and I'll be honest, I was a little bit surprised because you not only like Dallas tonight, but you also think they can pull off the upset.
25:34
Yeah, I like Dallas on the spread tonight, and I like Dallas to win the series. I mean, I don't really think that, like, it's likely Dallas wins the series, but I've explained it, you know, on a few shows right now.
25:42
But I do think that the minus 225 odds on Boston is, like, an implied probability of something like 70%.
25:48
And I just don't think that you can go with that when there's a t- you know, a team that has a better player than your best player and a team that plays really good defense.
25:55
So I just think that these games are going to be close down the stretch, and I just kind of trust Luka Dončić, and I kind of trust Kyrie Irving more than I trust Jayson Tatum towards the end of games.
26:04
So that's really where I'm at with it. I think that we're gonna see a really close series. It wouldn't shock me if the Celtics win, but I think Dallas is worth a swing.
26:11
And at the same time, tonight, I think that 6.5 points is a little too many, just because I do think that the defensive nature of this series is going to make it pretty hard for either one of these teams to really run away with games.
26:22
I don't think we're gonna see many blowouts in this series, and I just think that we're gonna see spreads closer to 5, 5.5, uh, moving forward. Yeah, I thought it was interesting.
26:29
I thought the market was trying to tell you something when we talked about this right before we went to break earlier this year. And I know a lot's changed. The power ratings have changed.
26:37
It's not like Boston's gotten any worse, though. I mean, they just swe- [laughs] they've lost two games in the whole playoffs.
26:41
They've built like a, like a seven-game winning streak heading into the finals, one of the longer, uh, in recent memory.
26:47
Um, but Boston at home was laying 7.5 to Denver, the Nuggets, who I think were the number one power rated team for pretty much the entire year, and now we're seeing 6.5, game one of the finals.
26:59
Like, to me, there's two ways to look at it. You can say, oh, well, you're getting value on Boston because, you know, Denver, we think power rating-wise, is a little bit behind Dallas.
27:08
But then you also say, well, maybe Dallas has improved that much over the last couple of months that they've made this run, that we're not giving them enough credit, and it sounds like that's kind of the camp you're in.
27:20
Yeah, I think so. I think that Dallas has proven that they are very much a, a tier one team in the Western Conference. I mean, they're representing the West.
27:26
They're one of the only teams that would've had to have gone through the gauntlet that they did, beating Oklahoma City, beating Minnesota.
27:32
They didn't, you know, they didn't have a soft schedule to this point like you could say about the Celtics. They've beaten two very elite teams in the Western Conference.
27:38
And at the same time, it's like, you know, all the power ratings, all the advanced stats that I look at do say, you know, they tell a story about a Boston Celtics team that is almost historically good.
27:48
But at the same time, it's like, I, I have to trust my eyes at some point, and I just watched them really struggle with an Indiana Pacers team that is not [laughs] as good as this Dallas Mavericks team.
27:57
Uh, two games they played without Tyrese Haliburton, India- Indiana.
28:01
You know, a better team, a team with, with their best player on the floor, a floor general like a Luka Dončić, like a Kyrie Irving, isn't blowing those two games or even three of the four games that we saw g- in that series.
28:11
So I just think that I'm, I'm just not really buying Boston at this point because there's execution issues. I know that they're a great team on both ends of the floor. I know that they're really deep.
28:20
I love their backcourt. I love that Derrick White and Jrue Holiday are two guys that absolutely get after it on both ends.
28:25
But at the same time, there's just something missing in terms of, like, execution and key moments. It was nice that they came back to win those games in that series, but I don't know if I see it happening.
28:34
If they play with their food at all against Dallas, I think they're gonna be in trouble. Zachary Cohen, VSiN senior editor joining us now. Follow him on X, @bettingonX.
28:43
He's got an article up for game one of the NBA Finals that are tonight between the Boston Celtics and the Dallas Mavericks. So you like Dallas. You think they're a little undervalued in the series.
28:53
The prop market, obviously at this time of year, I think is the place to find the most value, and I love when you bet on props that are so low because you know me, I'm the first inning guy. One swing of the bat- Yeah...
29:04
I wanna win. In this prop with Maxi Kleber, one shot and you could be good. Yeah, this is a really weird one.
29:11
Like, you're, you're banking on a, an adjustment that probably needs to be made in the series at some point being made early enough in game one, which, hey, maybe it isn't.
29:18
But I do think that with Kristaps Porziņģis and Al Horford out there, this, you know, the Celtics are always going to have a floor spacing big on the floor, and that's going to present problems for a guy like Daniel Gafford, who's been playing big minutes for Dallas, but has a little bit, you know, he's, he's a little slow in the foot is what I wrote in the Kyle, uh, in the column.
29:34
[laughs] But Derrick Whiteley does not have that issue, and Maxi Kleber definitely does not have the issue.
29:39
I think that Kleber's actually the best perimeter defensive big that Dallas has, also their best floor spacing big themselves.
29:45
So if they wanna go five out, try to combat, you know, the math battle at the three-point line that the Celtics are playing, there's going to need to be minutes for Kleber, maybe 15 to 20, and like you said, he hits one and this play wins.
29:56
It's, uh, over 2.5 points is what it is. I, again, I, I think so typically when you go, and I had a hockey analyst say this to me that made a lot of sense.
30:06
When you go from series to series and when you go from home court to, you know, road, right, or home ice to road in between games two and three, there's a shift And a lot of times, the match-ups, the rotations, whatever, you know, you know, you're looking at, drastically change, and that's why the prop market to me is always intriguing.
30:26
We haven't heard about Maxi Kleber much over the last few mo- uh, couple weeks. He's been hurt. Even when he came back, he wasn't as effective.
30:33
When he was healthy, to your point, Zach, this is a guy that is incredibly versatile, incredibly dangerous, and the way that Boston plays five out, especially with Porziņģis back on the floor, it makes a ton of sense, especially getting a week off to hur- heal that shoulder.
30:47
I, I think you could see his point total double, uh, between now and later on in the series. So I, I think you made a ton of sense there. All right, Mavericks and Kleber on the NBA side.
30:57
We have tennis happening right now, and you are a champion not only of the tennis world, but also, uh, picking French Open selection.
31:04
So, uh, a- anything, I know that the time zones can be a little bit weird with when these, uh, matches start, but is there anything in the tennis world of note today at Roland Garros?
31:14
I have a small play on Jasmine Paolini to beat Mirra Andreeva. Uh, that was a really s- exciting day of women's tennis yesterday. You saw both players come away with huge upsets. Andreeva beat Aryna Sabalenka.
31:26
Uh, Paolini beat Elena Rybakina. Two monumental upsets, like they both were, I believe, -400 favorites or right around there. So it's a really exciting match today.
31:34
I think a lot of people are going to be on Andreeva, who is kind of the story of the tournament at this point, a 17-year-old into her first semifinals.
31:40
She's a player that a lot of people think will win majors someday, but at the same time, I think this is a really tough matchup for her because both of these players are like baseline grinders.
31:49
They don't have great serves. Uh, both of them just want to play long rallies and outlast the opponent.
31:54
But I think that Paolini is a little bit stronger, a little, has the ability to go bigger from her forehand side and end points. I'm not sure that Andreeva actually has that.
32:01
I also think, you know, I'm a big believer in like an emotional letdown spot. That win over Sabalenka for Andreeva has to feel like the biggest win of her career.
32:08
She got absolutely washed by Sabalenka when they played in Madrid, uh, about three weeks ago, uh, actually maybe a month now, ago.
32:15
But yeah, just destroyed by Sabalenka the last time they played, overcomes that challenge here. I wonder if she's able to get up the same way that she was yesterday.
32:23
Yeah, I wish that I had some analysis to add over the top of it, but- [laughs]... I'm just trying to say the, I'm just trying to say the tennis players' names correctly. That's really where I- We're, there you go, Jas...
32:32
where I have to start and end right there. Uh, Zachary Cohen, uh, always great to catch up with you, my friend. Good luck with the tennis and the NBA Finals wagers, which will begin tonight. Thanks, guys.
32:42
Thanks for having me on. Great stuff as always. Zachary Cohen, of course, you can find his work all, all over, um, thevsyn.com homepage. He's our senior editor, and you can follow him on Twitter @bettingonx. I,
32:54
l- I, maybe I'm scarred from what just happened to me in the Pacers series, but I just can't fade this Boston team right now.
33:01
And I'm sure that is the perfect elixir for them to drop this game tonight and, you know, all the good luck that they've had- Yeah... end of games to kind of come back and bite them tonight, but I don't know.
33:11
I just can't get there. Uh, they have been, i- it's a fascinating series. I have futures tickets on the Mavericks, so I hope they come out on top. Yes, you do.
33:19
Uh, Jared, but I, we are talking about a historically great regular season team, and when we talk about having to change a Dallas power rating, you don't really have to change anything from the Boston side from the regular season.
33:32
It's true. We'll get to some of, uh, Kelly's futures plays in the series wagers on the other side of Numbers Game.
33:38
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Well, sound the trumpet.
33:55
Doo, doo-doo-doo, doo, doo. Horse racing time. Um, saddle up. I've actually never done this read before, this exciting new read. Uh, "DK Horse, an official DraftKings affiliate. Right now, new customers who down..."
34:04
All right, now this looks a lot familiar. "DK Horse app, you can get 100% deposit bonus up to $250 when you use the promo code VSINHORSE." I love that promo code. It's all one word. "Just deposit 25 bucks or more.
34:15
Complete the play through requirement." The play through requirement is important, people. I've been burned on that before. "Wager on your favorite horses. Watch the races live right in the app.
34:23
Download the DK Horse app now." We do have the Belmont Stakes not at Belmont this week. I didn't know that until I, uh, was reading up on the race this week, um, that it's at Saratoga- Yes... this year.
34:36
Belmont at Saratoga. The Belmont at Saratoga. The f- the artist formerly known as the Belmont Stakes. I guess the Saratoga Stakes has a nice ring to it to get the alliteration. Yeah, it really does.
34:46
I, I, I- I'd just call it that... I've kinda, I've kinda been wondering that, but I guess you got the history of the Belmont that you have to carry over, so. I'll be honest.
34:53
So I, when I used to live in New York, I, I worked on Long Island for a number of years, and I, I, I was there for Ame- I, I covered the Triple Crown, American Pharoah. I was there.
35:02
I literally video phoned him crossing the finish line, like very close to where it was. Nice. Um, and then I remember the next year was not a Triple Crown race, [laughs] and it was like...
35:13
That's, uh, that's [laughs] People were still there, but it was the exact opposite feeling. But my point being, that race on Long Island is like, it, it's like a God weekend. Oh, yeah. It, big deal.
35:24
For them to lose that weekend is a huge deal- Yeah, I mean, it's only-... for the area of Belmont. Only this year. Yeah. Yes. Where, where they got renovations going on or something like that?
35:34
I thought it was two years, but maybe it's just this year. Oh, okay. I thought it was o- one year for sure, and, and let's be honest, I've seen how slow construction can be in New York City. Multi-year project.
35:43
You're right. I, I think this is a multi-year thing. Um, and the people from [laughs] around Belmont cannot be happy. Um, I guess they're happy that there's no Triple Crown.
35:52
I guess maybe they're rolling the dice and praying that they don't get a Triple Crown hopeful over these next multi, let's be honest, could be five years.
36:00
I wouldn't be shocked the way New York handles their construction. But, um, uh, long story short, we do have a race this weekend. Chris Felica on tomorrow with us too, guys.
36:07
Chris Felica will be here tomo- I've ne- On the call... crossing off another name off my never hung out with them on air bucket list- There you go... Chris Celica. That's pretty cool. Um, I did not know that going in.
36:17
Yeah, he, that's on Fox this weekend, so he will be all over the coverage as well. That's awesome. Very excited to get the Bear on tomorrow.
36:23
That is breaking news to me, but also, I'm sure Mike Somich will be hot and heavy- Oh, yeah... all over the airwaves- Oh, yeah... doing his thing. Um, my guess is we'll have him on Saturday.
36:32
Uh, I'll be back Saturday doing my usual slot over at Circa. Um, usually the race kind of starts right around the time we go on air. Sometimes it's later.
36:42
We'll figure it out, and I'm sure, again, go to vsi.com, you'll get all the info.
36:46
Um, but we wanna at least go through some of our bets from the NBA and the Major League Baseball world tonight before we get into our second hour.
36:54
Um, I'll give you the floor here, sir, because the series, you've had time.
36:59
You know, you've had time to think about this, mull it over, try to find some value, and you did make some wagers on the series, uh, uh, bets for the Mavericks-Celtics. Yeah, I have.
37:08
Uh, I mean, look, I've got futures tickets I'm rolling into, into this with, so it, it obviously makes things a little bit different for me than you have- It always does. Yeah, I- How did you approach at that?
37:16
You have Mavericks, so did you consider- So-... just coming back on Boston because you had so much exposure to get out? So we can hit that first, right?
37:21
Mavericks, I had 19 to one, and then I had them in an exact, uh, over Boston, uh, at 40 to one. So I did, yes, I played the Boston series price a bit. But, um, I t- I, I hit that as soon as it opened.
37:31
Jared wa- didn't know where it was gonna move. I came back, though, on, with, with some Dallas series bets. I do like, I think the Mavericks in six, and these are all, these are all price dependent, right?
37:40
This is all, it, it's still, even if you're doing it today, shop around, right? You're s- gonna see wildly different numbers from book to book. So Mavericks, I, Mavericks in six I thought was really good value.
37:50
I do think this is a series that goes long. I think if you're considering that five and a half games, over is definitely where I'd be leaning, regardless of what side you like.
37:59
I do think we're seeing a game six, at least, in this series. I think in all likelihood, if Mavericks win this series, it is in game six back at home.
38:06
Um, so at close to six to one when that number was up, that, that was a bet for me.
38:11
Um, and then same thing, I think if you're considering, if you're considering Dallas in this series, I, my advice would be go bet Luka Dončić finals MVP and then take it one game at, one game at a time.
38:21
That's, where, where Zach's on them tonight, where, where it sounds like me and him disagree a little bit on total tonight, I, the one thing you're getting tonight is you're getting this game one, Jared, priced as, uh, like Kristaps Porziņģis is there and good to go.
38:34
Sure. So if he is not 100% for whatever reason, I'm not saying I know anything that he isn't, but if he's not, uh, you know, close to 100%, then this number's at least a bit off. So- 100%, yeah, you're right...
38:46
I think game one, if you're looking at it, I'm not doing it. I did play the over game one. I'll probably be looking live Dallas.
38:52
I think if Boston gets off to a hot start like we've seen them do before, okay, if you spr- you push this spread out to eight and a half, nine, something like that, I might be jumping in, but would only be attacking live probably, uh, from sides in this series.
39:05
Couple series props I do really like. Um, Jason Tatum to lead the series in rebounds. Now, I got that at minus 105 on Opra. I think it's, I know it was always minus 150 at DraftKings.
39:14
I think most places are around that number now. That's far more appropriate to me. Uh, my, I do think he is the most likely guy to lead the series in rebounding.
39:22
I honestly think that Luka Dončić is the only guy he's really gonna be contending with, and why is that? Well, it's a style of play for Boston, right?
39:29
You br- you bring those five guys out, out, out, out on the perimeter. Porziņģis likely going to be limited at least a little bit in minutes. Yeah. He's not gonna rack up big rebound numbers.
39:39
And what do the bigs do on the Dallas side? Well, they split time, and you're talking about three of them likely splitting time throughout this series. So I don't really think any of those guys are in play.
39:47
I think this is- No... really a Da- a Tatum versus Dončić prop. So I'll take my, uh, Le- uh, Le- Lay minus 105 with that. Uh, another one, shop around. I think he's more like five to one most places.
39:57
I took a flyer on Tatum to lead the series in three-pointers at nine to one. I don't know about you, Jared. You know how many Boston games it feels like I, I've watched over the past- He takes 100 threes...
40:06
five years in big moments where Tatum just settles and launches three after three. So he hasn't been that great. Uh, he hasn't been that efficient from the three-point line this playoffs.
40:16
But, uh, if I know if I'm getting 10, 11, I'm getting the volume up with him, 10, 11 three-point attempts a game from him, I'll take a flyer at nine to one on that.
40:24
And then the one that I added yesterday, JVT came on, uh, and talked about this one, I think it's a great bet.
40:29
Uh, it might actually be my favorite one now at this point, is Jaylen Brown to have more rebounds, uh, over the course of the series- Interesting...
40:35
than Daniel Gafford, just because I think Daniel Gafford's minutes are going to go down, down, down through the course of the series. Yeah. So it's not really a bet on Jaylen Brown.
40:44
It's more of a fade of Daniel Gafford's, uh, minutes on the floor and how much he's out, gonna be out there.
40:49
I think, and again, the card is, is robust, and I can always count on you to give me lots of things to chew on here, because I think the two things that always stand out to me now that we're kind of really in an evolved marketplace with these, you know, series bets, is just how many options you have.
41:06
Oh, it's incredible. And how many ways you can attack a series.
41:09
You've had a whole week to think about this, and there's no right or wrong answer just because you don't like, you know, those, I'll call them derivative prop markets that are very specific, very micro.
41:21
It doesn't make you a good or a bad gambler. I just think there's a lot of different ways to skin the cat.
41:27
I think betting the, you know, the most, risking the most on the index markets is not the right bankroll management style.
41:35
But to bet a guy that's on the floor 40 minutes a game like Tatum to lead the series in three-point, like you're betting on variance. Like, you're hoping that Luka, Luka's gonna take a lot, but he- Yeah...
41:45
doesn't make as many, where again, to me, those markets are always intriguing ways to kind of come at the series from different angles and to kind of surround yourself in almost like a warm blanket at the end of the night.
41:56
Wrap yourself around all... The Jaylen Brown thing, that one I wasn't even thinking of, because in your mind, you don't think Jaylen Brown is a rebounder, but you made a really good point about Gafford.
42:05
We're expecting, uh- The books to decrease his props as the series goes on- Yeah... which now gives us value pre-flop on a bet that you wouldn't think has value.
42:15
Yeah, it is, it, I, I, I think Zach's, Zach's play tonight i, is really interesting too. Maxi Kleber over two and a half points. Oh, I'm definitely betting that. I like it. Um, I like it.
42:25
I am, look, I have the series bet on Jaylen Brown over Gafford. Yeah. This is what I think's gonna happen, right? Oh, of course. Jaylen, like this is- New information, new opinion, it could change tomorrow.
42:33
I am definitely the guy that approaches these series with, you know what?
42:37
I'm, I'm kinda, I, yes, I've bet some of these the way I think the most likely scenario is of how this is gonna play out, but when it comes to props like this stuff, give me a game or two to wa- to watch this first, and then I'll probably get more heavily involved.
42:50
I, the Maxi Kleber question is a, it's a big time question. How much are they gonna be forced to use him on, on defense? Whi- which, it, there's a very good chance they are. But man, I, I don't know.
43:01
He, he's coming off that injury. The, the shooting looked really ugly- It did... the, the limited time. He's had a whole week though. Yeah, he's, he had a whole week. That's the thing, I'm talking about.
43:08
I don't know, right? There's a, there's a shroud of, there's a shroud of mystery surrounding the injured players. Mm-hmm.
43:13
We'll know more tonight how they look, and then we'll get a better vibe, but then the number's gonna adjust. Right.
43:18
Yeah, I also don't know, that's also my way of saying I wouldn't go out tonight, like I'm not going, I've, I've brought up this Daniel Gafford, uh, y- you know, feeling from the beginning.
43:26
As soon as the series price got, uh, series price and series got announced, I, this is the way I've felt about Gafford.
43:32
I'm not going in tonight hammering unders on Gafford though, because we've s- how many times have we seen the team wants to stick with what's been working well- For at least one game... and then they adjust, right?
43:41
So it's- If they get blown out tonight, they adjust. I, I, I think the, I think the, the way we handle the series tonight from Boston's perspective, old reliable. Tatum rebounds, has been a money maker- Yep...
43:51
the entire post-season. He's over in 11 out of 14 games. The dude just, just is always around the basketball if he plays major minutes, and we expect him to play major minutes tonight.
44:01
And I, I really like the angle of trying to figure out guys that are gonna get more or less minutes based off of match-ups. We're guessing, but if you guess right, you're probably gonna win your bet.
44:12
All right, uh, hour number one in the books. We will continue. A lot more NBA. I'll get to some baseball. Your free Nerfy talk on the other side on Numbers Game.
44:19
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