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Jun 6, 2024
A Numbers Game | June 6, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | June 6, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:32
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
All right, we are back, hour number two of a numbers game powered by our friends at ZYN Nicotine. I'm Jared Smith in for Gil Alexander today. This is Thursday morning. We're live at the D.
0:18
Kelly Bidlin is here with us as well.
0:20
Coming up, uh, very soon on the other side of our next break, Stormy Bonatoni, very excited to get her thoughts on the NHL Stanley Cup Final, Singular Cup Final, and we'll get some UFL talk as well as she continues to, uh, globe trot around this great country of ours covering, um, the UFL, which has been a very exciting season.
0:39
The conference championships this week, correct? I believe. Yes, conference championships, yes. Excited for that.
0:44
Um, maybe I'll make my first wager on the UFL this week based off of what our friend Stormy- I think I've made two... tells us. I think I've made two this season.
0:52
I just, I struggle with making bets on leagues that I don't watch or handicap. Sure, yeah. Because I feel like I'm just guessing.
1:00
Now, I feel like I'm guessing a lot with the YERFY NERFY stuff too, but let's be honest, at least I have some data to back up the guesses. Yes, you do. Speaking of, um, there are a couple games today of interest.
1:10
So I have noticed, um, and we'll get back into more NBA talk, uh, at the end of this show. We also have some awards segments in, uh, Major League Baseball to get to as well.
1:20
But let's go micro here for a minute because, um, I have noticed over the last week, magically, since the calendar turned to June, all of a sudden the offenses in baseball are perking up.
1:31
And I'm not saying it is anything malicious on Commissioner Manfred's part. I don't think he made a call to the Rawlings people to juice the baseballs.
1:39
I just think we have entered the time of year where the weather gets hotter. I think naturally you see offenses kind of figure things out after a month or two, and some of the pitching arms get a little bit stale, right?
1:54
We've seen these guys, the Imanagas and the sensations, the rookies, Jared Jones has been hit around a little bit, even though he pitched well against the Dodgers a couple of days ago.
2:02
You get- It's a combination of all of it, right? It's a combination of all those things. Okay. I think that is great- But I also think the balls are juiced.
2:09
[laughs] I, uh, again, not malicious, I just think over the course of the year, even the commissioner has admitted this, balls get cycled in and out. They go through thousands of baseballs- Oh, yeah...
2:22
a, a week, and they have to create them in a, in an assembly lab somewhere, and if the, you know, composition is just slightly off from one batch to the next, inconsistency is the word that has been used.
2:38
And I think we are now in a time, at least over the last week, based off of the sound that some of the ball... The ball that Otani hit off of- Woo... um, off of Skeens last night. That was fun yesterday.
2:51
And then Judge hit one off, I think, I forget who, in San Francisco the other day, and I tweeted out, I was like, "This ball made that sound." Like, and I know it's Judge and it's Otani, these guys are superhuman, but...
3:05
And it's funny, as I say that, they just played the highlight here, um, on one of the TVs here at the D. The ball just jumps in a certain way that you're like, "Oh, wow, that made a sound I haven't heard yet this year."
3:18
And I think we're kind of in that time now. So my point being all of this, the YERFY, I think it's the, June is the YERFY month. I call it the YERFY Yeti. Would you like the baseball count real quick? I'd love it.
3:30
I've never looked this up before. Estimated that Major League Baseball teams use more than 900,000 baseballs each season. If you- So each team. That is each team... each team uses almost a million baseballs a season.
3:44
Each baseball is created and s- I don't know how they're made. I'm not, I'm not there in the lab, but- In the same report, Rawlings estimates it makes more than 2.4 million baseballs for Major League Baseball each year.
3:55
If you- So that math's not exactly adding up, but whatever. [laughs] The math's not mathing there. But if, if you think that all 2.4 million baseballs have exactly the same composition, you're crazy.
4:06
Even the commissioner has admitted there's inconsistencies with how these balls are made.
4:10
And if you can kind of time the market in a sense, you know that the weather's heating up, you know that things are kind of percolating in the offensive sphere. Well, then it's the right time to pivot, right?
4:23
We've been very NERFY focused. May, for the NERFY, was ridiculous. It hit at almost 61%. I have been tracking the first inning of every baseball game for almost three years.
4:36
I have never seen a month in that span that has been more than 53% NERFY. 52 and a half was the high. Really? Interesting. May was 60.9% N- NERFY in May.
4:51
That is ridiculously skewed to one side, more so than I've ever seen. And in my- That's wild. It, it was. It was crazy. And I think it was, again, combination.
5:01
Bad weather, bad baseballs, good pitching, great young sensations like Jones and Skeens and all these guys coming out of the woodworks and gassing people in the first inning, but it's gravity.
5:13
What comes up has to come down, and I do think we will see more run scoring. I think home runs will be up, runs will be up. I think overs, YERFYS, that's the vibe I'm getting this month.
5:23
What, what is-- I love having this conversation with you. Yeah, me too. I love when you're on, uh, w- 'cause I love picking your brain on it. The, uh, so first inning over under a half run.
5:30
What is the average pricing- Great question... you, you would say that you're seeing on that- I have the data... on a daily basis? Okay. I track it 'cause I'm a s- I'm a sicko. [laughs] I'm a sicko.
5:40
I sit in my room every night with my dog on my couch, and I just track first inning stats. I will give you the number.
5:46
Not only do I know what the average odds are for each YERFY, I could tell you each team's average NERFY odds- Oh, beautiful... because I'm a sicko. Beautiful.
5:54
So the average YERFY odds this season are even, straight up plus 100, even odds. The average NERFY odds this year, minus 117. So again, that's about 55-ish percent. Right?
6:09
You're kinda, you need to get to 60% if you wanna be profitable on every nerfy. Right, yeah. Yeah, yeah. But we were there in May.
6:15
I guess I actually, I expected those odds to be flipped based off of just the percentages that you were looking at. The nerfy's the more popular wager. The nerfy gets more handle. It's not profitable in terms of ROI.
6:28
Yeah, I was gonna say, based off those odds and percentage it- Both, both were down last year. Yeah. This is, listen, this is a coin flip market. This market is a coin flip. That is why the price matters.
6:40
That is why when you see me put out write-ups for free every day on X, follow me @jaredleesmith, when you see me put out write-ups, the first line of the write-up is comparing the nerfy/yerfy price to the first five total.
6:52
Mm-hmm. Because in my eyes, four and a half is kind of flat for a first five total.
6:57
You get to a lot of fours, you get the crazy pitching match-ups that are three and a half, but for the most part I see four and a half's juice varies on the over under.
7:05
So for me, four and a half is kind of par for a first five total. I was like the, and the, and the point of starting there as your baseline is because- Minus 110 on both sides...
7:13
is because you're still, the first five is still factoring in a starting pitcher and not factoring in a bullpen in that scenario. That's why I don't factor in the full game total. Yeah, that makes sense.
7:20
Now, you can factor in the full game total, I just think it's a less efficient- I agree, yeah... baseline. You can do it, it's just less efficient.
7:29
So you take the first five total, you compare it at four and a half minus 110 on both sides, that's what the yerfy/nerfy price should be minus 110 on both sides. Four and a half, straight par.
7:39
So I adjust 10 cents for every half run. So if a first five total is four, you bump the nerfy price up 10 cents to minus 120.
7:48
Well, if you see a first five total of four and a nerfy price of minus 110 or even odds, well then there's value on the nerfy in my eyes. Mm-hmm. Yep, yep. Usually it's the other side.
7:59
Usually most days what I see is first five total four and a half, yerfy price even odds. Well, that should be minus 110. Right. Right.
8:08
Now, after you have to make the adjustments for lineups, you have to make the adjustments for starting pitchers, you have to make the adjustments for weather. Is the game played in twilight? Are there shadows?
8:19
Rain, wind, all of those things then factor into the manual adjustments you make.
8:23
And when you say lineup, it's, that's where the first five changes to first inning because you d- you don't care about the back end of the lineup at all. This is why I love these bets.
8:32
We say this in life all the- control what you can control. When I bet a first five, y- you have a lot less control. Mm-hmm.
8:42
I know, in the first inning I know exactly who's coming to the plate and exactly who's on the mound, and I don't care who's batting sixth. If I'm betting a yerfy, if I'm getting to the sixth guy in the inning,
8:56
unless it's bases loaded, two outs- [laughs]... I've already won the bet. Right, yeah. [laughs] So I, I don't have, I don't, I'm not handicapping...
9:03
And the odds, I, I s- by the way, some books post the odds of a bases loaded inning. It's like 20 to 1, so I'm not even considering a bases loaded inning.
9:12
It's really the top five hitters and the starting pitcher, and you kinda can, you can make very simple manual adjustments ba- for, I'll give you a great example.
9:20
Yesterday, this was a late one, but it was a very obvious value to the nerfy. Alex Bredman got, Alex Bregman got scratched an hour before the game. I had already made the price right around minus 110 for a nerfy.
9:33
Bregman gets scratched, they bump up Pena. I love Jeremy Pena, he's not Alex Bregman. Mm. Y- you have to make at least a 5 or 10 cent adjustment- Sure...
9:42
just based off of the, I would argue with Tucker also out for the Astros, you take Tucker and Bregman out of the lineup for the Astros, their first inning turns into a very subpar lineup.
9:53
It goes from above average to below average just like that. Right. A lot of times
9:59
the full game total will adjust, then maybe it'll trickle down to the first five total, but the derivatives rarely adjust off of stuff like that. They kept that nerfy price the same. That's crazy.
10:10
I got the same nerfy price before Alex Bregman got announced out than when he got announced out, and these are- That's a massive difference now. Yeah... huge difference. Massive difference. Yeah. At least 10 cents.
10:20
It's a massive difference. So these are the types of things I look for when I'm analyzing the first inning. It is...
10:27
Now, then you get random stuff like Patrick Corbin yesterday, who gave up two smoke bombs to Lindor and Nimmo, 100 miles an hour off the bat to Lindor, ground ball out, expected batting average of 400.
10:41
105 off the bat to Nimmo, an expecting batting average of 630. Luis Garcia made a crazy picket at second base, then turned a double play and ended the inning- [laughs] Right...
10:49
on a, on a ball that had an expecting batting average of 630. Now, the variance in a first inning market, significantly higher- Sure, yeah...
10:55
because one play like that completely ruins the bet, whereas you bet a first five, longer time horizon- Yeah...
11:02
eventually Patrick Corbin folded like the $6 tent he is, and the Mets won the first five, but I didn't get that run home in the first inning because of some good defense and some bad variance.
11:13
So you have to kind of fight both things. You know a lot more information and you can make a much solid number than I think a fir- you can in a first five, but then you're dealing with the variance.
11:22
Yeah, I think it's, a- a- that was a great, I think that was a great breakdown. Gil often, o- will often say baseball is a team sport, or it's an individual sport disguised as a team sport. Yes, he's right. Right?
11:31
And that breaks it down even more when you just look at the first inning. Team sport here on VSiN. Our teammate Stormy Bonatony joins us next to talk NHL.
11:39
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:00
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12:10
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12:21
Visit omahasteaks.com, use the promo code VESON at checkout. Jarrett Smith in for Gil Alexander today and tomorrow. This is a numbers game. Kelly Bidlin along with us as well live from downtown Las Vegas.
12:34
And speaking of groan-worthy dad jokes, I'm sorry I had to do it, um, not only myself, but also our next guest. Um, she is the host of The Lombardi Line. She also does fantastic work covering the UFL for ESPN.
12:46
She is our colleague here at VSON, Stormy Bonatony. Good morning, Strony. I appreciate you, and I am, I am a big fan of dad jokes, by the way. My favorite.
12:56
I'm that pers- I'm that person who, when I go to check out at the grocery store and they ask you if you want the milk in a bag, I say, "Keep it in the jug," ba-dum-tss. So [laughs] there you go.
13:05
That's, that's something that I would do too. Well, Stormy- [laughs] It's the best... we, we, we have to appreciate laughing at oursel- if we can't laugh at ourselves, who can we laugh at?
13:15
Um, and you are, are again, a champion of that. I'm excited to get to some UFL before we talk puck here, because it's a market that I haven't dabbled in much this year. You of course on the sidelines every week.
13:25
Where are they sending you this week for conference championship weekend? Yeah, I'm out there for the USFL Conference Final, which will be a blast.
13:31
Birmingham, who's been the best team in the league all season long, um, has faltered a little bit the last couple of weeks, and so the market has certainly changed on them a bit, which I think is a good opportunity from a betting standpoint for people.
13:44
Um, but yeah, Birmingham against Michigan, they were very quickly bet down from a 6 1/2 point favorite to five this week, and I would say jump on that- Mm... to be honest with you.
13:54
They're a team that the last handful of weeks, so they, they played a close game against Houston, who's one of the worst teams in the league. They lost their first game in over a calendar year.
14:03
And then last week they played about as bad and as a vanilla of a game plan as you could play, because they're facing the same opponent in back-to-back weeks against Michigan last week.
14:13
And they haven't been getting the most out of Adrian Martinez, and people are like, "Okay, fade Birmingham, they're not as good as they were at the beginning of the season."
14:20
And I'm like, "Nah, dude," they've been coasting the last three or four weeks. They've known that they're gonna be in the playoffs.
14:26
They've known because Michigan had a scheduling conflict with Ford Field that even if they made the conference championship, like, that they wouldn't be able to have home field advantage.
14:35
Birmingham was gonna be in the playoffs, they were gonna have home field. So they haven't had to do everything that they were doing earlier on in the season.
14:42
And I think with that in mind, they're gonna go all out now that it is must-win games, let's win a third straight spring football title, and this is a great buy low spot in my mind on Birmingham in, in this game and in the futures market right now.
14:57
Yeah, Birmingham right now -115 to win the UFL championship. The other game on Sunday, San Antonio, St. Louis, uh, the Battlehawks, three-point home favorite there. So we think Birmingham all the way.
15:09
You're okay with laying it in the futures market as well? I do, I think so. They've been a favorite all year long.
15:14
They've been odds on since week seven, got as high as -165, and because of the performances the last handful of weeks, that's come back down to the -125 range right now. So I, I say jump on it.
15:25
I think they're still gonna be the best team in the league and most likely to walk out of this thing a champion. Stormy Bonatony joining us now.
15:31
She is the host of The Lombardi Line, also does fabulous work for the UFL over on ESPN.
15:36
All right, let's switch gears here, because you and I were in the building last year, a few miles down the road from us right here, downtown Las Vegas, um, when the Florida Panthers succumbed to our Las Vegas Golden Knights in the Stanley Cup Final.
15:48
I think that revenge narrative just, to me, I know you're not getting revenge, uh, on Edmonton in that situation, but just battling back and getting back to the Stanley Cup Final, to me, is so difficult to make it through this postseason.
16:01
I think they are going to finish things off. The odds think that as well. Where does Stormy, uh, think the Panthers and Oilers are gonna end up? I'm right there with you.
16:09
And I gotta say, w- was that game five last year not one of the- Oh... coolest experiences ever? The best. That- I wouldn't trade that for anything, watching the cup being, uh, delivered. It was so cool.
16:19
That was my first time ever seeing a live- Yeah... Stanley Cup post-game on the ice, and it was, it was unbelievable, and it was so fun.
16:26
And with that in mind, I am so on board with everything that you're saying about Florida here. I think they're gonna be back with a vengeance, and they're not the Cinderella, lucky-to-be-here eight seed anymore either.
16:35
They won the Atlantic. They were the two seed in the Eastern Conference. They have a lot of that experience that's coming back with them on this roster.
16:42
And you think about what they had to go through from a health standpoint last year in that series with Vegas, where, like, Ekblad had a broken foot, Montour's beat up- Yep...
16:51
Tkachuk could hardly function in the finals and was unavailable that closeout game- Yep... with a sternum injury.
16:57
This year they are healthy, they have great depth, they have far better balance in my opinion than the Oilers.
17:04
Um, yes, Edmonton has the best player on the ice and probably more high-end skill at the top of that lineup, but top to bottom, Florida's get, got the better roster.
17:11
And it's not all Matthew Tkachuk, it's not all Alexander Barkov and Sam Reinhart carrying the load. They can roll lines. I love their defense. They have the edge in, in net to me as well.
17:22
And I'm curious your thoughts on this one, because a lot of people have kind of combated that with me of, look what Stuart Skinner did last round against Dallas, 195 goals against average.
17:32
He had the series of his career, probably best player on the ice, best game of his career in that closeout game against Dallas.
17:39
And I say, okay, yeah, he just played the best of his career, and now you need him to play better- Yep... than that against Florida? Like, that's where I'm coming from with this one.
17:49
Yeah, I, I think you, you let teams show you m- who they are, and Edmonton is who they are. Like, I d- I think those last three games against Dallas is not a good representation of who the Oilers are as a team.
18:02
And I'll be honest, that series against the Rangers, the Rangers had every magic potion going in their direction going into that series, and Florida just said, "Screw it, we don't care.
18:12
We're the better team and, and, and, and we're gonna kinda put you to bed." I th- I would be shocked. So I bet Florida for the series. I bet Florida laying one and a half games. I wanted some plus money on there as well.
18:22
I love what they've done in the third period. They lead the NHL in third period goal differential in the playoffs. I think that is a huge leading indicator of winning games in the post-season.
18:31
I, I, I don't see a lot of positives. Like, if you were stacking up the series, like, you know, tale of the tape, the only edge I think the Oilers have is probably the best player on the ice.
18:42
But you know this as well as anyone, when you have four lines deep, it's hard... It's like a Mike Trout effect.
18:47
Like, how much is Draisaitl and McDavid going to have an impact on a series when Florida has the deeper of the lines?
18:55
Yeah, and I think it'll be great evidence as the series goes on that just because you have the best player doesn't mean you have the best team. Yep.
19:02
And, like, that's, y- that's how I feel about this series, and I love what you said about the third period scoring differential. I was also looking into a couple other numbers that kind of go with that thought process.
19:12
No team's been able to close out games like this team, big picture. Like, you look at their, their... When leading after two periods this season, 42-0-3, including the playoffs. Wow. I had to triple check that.
19:23
That's insane to me. Going back to last post-season, they're 17 and 5 in one-goal games. That's the best win percentage in the league in that time for those post-seasons.
19:32
They're comfortable in the moments where other teams are uncomfortable, and we can talk about their toughness. We can talk about how they're probably an annoying team.
19:41
Like, they play a, a, a rough, gritty brand of football that I don't think that the Edmonton Oilers quite can compete with in a seven-game series.
19:48
But also, that killer instinct, I just feel like for them is a little bit different. They've won four games in the post-season when trailing after the first period. Yeah. That, I mean, they are...
20:01
And I, I think hockey is such a sport where [laughs] obviously you have to be physically gifted, but the mental grind of what Florida has been through last year, you mentioned it.
20:12
They could barely field a team in game five. Mm-hmm. And to get back to the mountaintop now, it's almost like, [laughs] "We ain't losing this time around. Like, we made it all the way back.
20:22
We are going to fight blood, tooth, and nail to get over the hump here." I don't know if Edmonton has that killer instinct. Yeah.
20:29
And we'll, we'll see, because if they come out and steal game one, and McDavid and Draisaitl are still out there doing their thing, and, and Skinner's, you know, rock solid in net, it, it'll be very interesting.
20:38
But I absolutely think, uh, the year of the rat, um- [laughs]... is, is upon us i- i- as the Florida Panthers try to descend, um, and, and win the, the franchise's first Stanley Cup.
20:49
I always like when new franchises win for the first time. It's always interesting to kind of see the dynamic there.
20:55
I think that we as a fan base, like, just in general with the sport of hockey, it's gonna be a win no matter who walks out of this. Sure. I agree with you. I want a first franchise win.
21:03
I think that would be unbelievable, but you think about the drought for the Oilers to win a Cup. The Panthers weren't even a franchise yet the last time that Edmonton won, and the Canadian team, since 1993 too, right?
21:16
Like, the team across the border, can they finally get one? I think it's gonna be great storylines either way.
21:22
I just feel like everything keeps on showing up to me slight edge Florida, slight edge Florida, that you're getting, quote, unquote, "value" as we like to [laughs] say- Oh, yeah...
21:31
on the short favorite line for them in the series. Anything in game one? We still have another two days until game one. I mean, it's crazy. The NBA had a long break. I know. We have a even longer break in the NHL.
21:41
You just gotta wait for- Stop bashing just the NBA. Come on. I know. The NHL has some scheduling issues too. [laughs] Anything intriguing in game one?
21:47
Um, I do think, again, to go back to the goaltending side of it, I know that the Panthers have been...
21:51
I mean, the, we've seen a lot of unders with both of these teams, but I actually lean over the five and a half, because goaltending wise, Bobrovsky is just... I, I think this is, like, a four-two type game. Sure.
22:03
As far as what Florida has faced goaltending wise, they've faced Andrei Vasilevskiy, Jeremy Swayman, Igor Shesterkin. Stuart Skinner's probably gonna be the easiest goaltender they've faced so far- 100%...
22:13
in the post-season. I think they're gonna get to him, and I think Bob stands up largely. So I see this as, like, a four-two type game with, um, with the Panthers winning and that total going over five and a half.
22:22
Stormy Bonatony, host of The Lombardi Line, UFL on ESPN, thanks for the time. Thanks, guys. I appreciate you, and we finally had our debut together. I'm so excited.
22:31
[laughs] Two years working at the same network, it's the first time that we've appeared- We did it... on air together.
22:36
Congratulations to both of us, and congratulations to you, 'cause you get more Numbers Game on the other side. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:55
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23:37
We appreciate our colleague, Stormy Bonatony, hopping on in that last segment. Also, Zachary Cohen in our first hour talking NBA. We had the NBA finals, the Stanley Cup final. Stormy threw in some UFL talk.
23:50
We have all three major sports covered. Now let's get back to the fourth.
23:55
Um, because Major League Baseball to me, and thank you very much to, uh, this viewer, Sky High, um, awesome stuff, um, sending us a tweet, uh, uh, just a few moments ago complimenting us for the Yearfy Nerfy analysis, the first five information and, and the questions that you were asking me, and kind of the back and forth that we were having.
24:12
Yeah, I got a couple. A couple of, "Who's this guy on with you? This is great."
24:16
All right, so that's the guy, that's the man, Jared Smith right there I love that, um- The Yerfy Nerfy man The, the f- as Dustin Sweetelsen says, the father of first innings. [laughs] Which is my favorite.
24:28
So you know this- That's a good one... you've been around the sports world a long time, you can't pick your nickname. Sure, yep. It has to be given. It has to be anointed like the Knight of the Round Table.
24:37
You are s- you a- you arise Sir Robin of Loxley. [laughs] Um, that is how I felt after that. It was last year, Dustin and I did a show, I think it was over at the South Point together, and I love Dustin.
24:50
The dude prepares his tuchus off when he's h- in the hosting chair. He doesn't get to do it a whole lot, and he did research on me.
24:57
He's like, "Oh, I see you like to do the, the first inning stuff," and he came up with that nickname before the show to kind of use it on the show as like a, as like a segment. That's great. That's perfect.
25:07
And it stuck because I'm not a gimmicky guy.
25:12
I'm very, just like our pal Stormy, how we talked in the last segment, I'm a very corny dad joke guy, but I'm not like, I don't need to have like a nickname to be like anointed into the gambling world.
25:21
Like, I'm fine with just being Jared. But J- you went to Jared. But this- [laughs] But, but this nickname is very apropos because I have really fallen in love with this market, and I think this market is a very good,
25:37
I wanna say litmus test for how the average recreational bettor handles betting on sports every day. Mm-hmm. Because there are a few things about this market that are
25:54
a microcosm of betting on sports every day.
25:56
Well, well, I think in that, that, I think that conversation, and I, I know we'll be po- we'll be putting it up on the social- Yeah, I'll be putting it up later- Yeah, yeah, we'll put it up...
26:02
'cause it was very valuable, I think. I mean, I think that's a, it was a good example of a conversa- a- I, I don't know how Jared handles this stuff. Th- this, but I love listening to handicapping processes, right? Yes.
26:11
And where do you start, right? And, and that's usually the, the biggest question.
26:15
I think that was, that let, I mean, all of it made sense to me, but as we were talking more and more, it's great to know where you start and where you go from there, and everything that needs to be included in the handicap.
26:26
And like you're talking about, you can use that as a smaller example, and when you go into full games or seasons, whatever, whatever- So much un- That's a perfect example of how it ends up blowing up... unknowns. Yes.
26:35
There's so many unknowns. The more you, it's like the muffin top theory, like when you start, the muffin grows past- Right, [laughs] exactly, yeah.
26:42
Once it's, goes past the, the stump and it starts gr- it goes in a bunch of different directions. That first inning is a microcosm of betting on sports every day because it's obviously a grind.
26:55
There's information, there's data that you can use to help you, but at the end of the day, I call them the Nerfy Yerfy gods, right? I have the Nerfy nymph and the Yerfy yeti.
27:05
[laughs] I guess I am a little more gimmicky than I lead on. Yeah, ap- apparently. I guess I'm very gimmicky. I apologize for lying to you a few moments ago. But
27:12
that, to me, is, at the end of the day, we can handicap this stuff till we're blue in the face. I can create, I can create a good number. I can base it off of a bad number that the sports books hang.
27:22
I could bet that number. It could move in my direction.
27:24
Everything could be working in your favor, and then Brandon Nimmo with a runner on first could hit a ball directly at 106 miles an hour at the second baseman, who turns an insane double play on an expecting batting average, uh, swing of, of 630.
27:40
I- I- it, and it's just like, what do you do? You're, you're sitting there and you're like, "I, I handicapped this game perfectly," and you still lost. That is a microcosm of sports betting.
27:51
We only have control [laughs] until the game starts, and it is cruel the way that we lose sometimes. Baseball is, every sport has its cruel, cruel ways of losing. Baseball is no different.
28:02
But I, but the way that I approach it is, it has taught me to not let it affect and impact how I handicap because you could lose four or five bets in a row like that in excruciating fashion, and we're human beings.
28:18
Our natural instinct is to say, "Well, that's not working. Let's change." Mm-hmm, mm-hmm.
28:22
But consistency, discipline, and the ability to create a system that is repeatable and that you can derive value from based off of numbers. Yeah. I'm not a math guy.
28:34
I don't have this advanced, you know, actuary degree like our friend Steve Fezzik that can create all these probabilities in his head. But he has helped me, and other professional gamblers have helped me
28:46
take the recreational mindset and apply it to sports betting. So we're not making the sharpest bets out there. There's always gonna be someone sharper.
28:55
But we're at least giving ourselves a fighting chance because we're not just throwing crap against the wall and hoping that it sticks, and I think that is where the first inning, 'cause it's very, it's, it's simple.
29:05
There's only a few batters you have to worry about, one pitcher. It's a very, I think, repeatable, kind of like a good diet, right? If you have a good diet, it's repeatable.
29:14
You don't, you don't have to do these crazy things. Now, now you've lost me. I, I know, I know. [laughs] And, well, I, I think it's more like when you have a routine, like a workout routine- Yeah...
29:23
the more complicated it is, the harder it is to do every day. And if it's hard to do something every day and repeat it, you're not gonna have success unless you're consistent. Yeah.
29:32
Consistency in sports betting is the key.
29:34
If you're over here one day, and then you're doing this, and then you change your thing every day, you have to have a goal, and then you have to work to achieve it, and you have to just every day chip away and just find new ways to be more efficient at what you're doing.
29:46
Yeah, I think that's a, it's a, I think that's well said.
29:48
I think it, it, it's, especially when you're isolating first inning, like it's not e- it's not even comparable to like, uh, first quarter betting i- in, you know, NFL or NBA, 'cause it's, it's even a smaller, [laughs] smaller size than that.
30:00
So it is, you're gonna get, you're going to get crazy variance in it. Yes. And that is- Baseball is nuts so varied... like you say, you, it's something you gotta live with.
30:07
Like there, it's, it's kind of like being at a blackjack table, right? You're gonna lose five hands in a row. It happens. Like the, the point is that hopefully, like you said, gravity, right?
30:14
Don't double your bet- Yeah... when you're going bad. You need to stay consistent. I'm not a big blackjack guy.
30:20
I wanna get more into it because I think it's a good game that I think, you know, helps the numbers side of my brain. I, I'm more of a craps guy, but that's more for recreational. That's another story for another day.
30:30
But, but- Now let's zoom way out. Mm. Yes. So we were zooming in on the first inning, now let's zoom way out because I think the first inning markets are fun, but let's be honest, it's [laughs] it's Plinko.
30:42
I, I think the more intriguing wagers to make in baseball on a daily basis is to track the future's market and to see... 'Cause baseball's a regression sport. We now have two months of data.
30:54
Now we can kind of say, "You've overachieved. We think you're coming back down to earth," or vice versa. Let's start with the odds to win the American League MVP. I have two bets open in this market right now.
31:02
I made Kyle Tucker last week. He got hurt, unfortunately. Okay. Yep. His numbers dropped. I'd still bet him at 10 to 1. He looked, he popped in the recent straw poll. He got a lot of votes.
31:12
Obviously, the hard part of this market, the other bet I have, shout out Dustin Svites, and he, he's on Jose Ramirez, which I also think is a bet that's gonna come down if he continues to lead the, uh, league in RBIs.
31:21
But obviously, the two guys at the top, the Yankees, i- it's hard not to gravitate towards them. The question is which one? I- that's what's fascinating. How do you pick one between the two?
31:30
Yeah, I don't, I, like, much like we just talked about with, with the first inning stuff, like, this is, it's, it's much more of an individual sport than it is- 100%... a team sport. Like, if this was the NBA, right?
31:41
Like, the, you, you, you couldn't, you couldn't price like this, right? No.
31:45
I guess you can a little bit more with Major League Baseball, but at the end of the day, you still- How often do you see two players that are priced the same this late in the year? Right. Yeah.
31:51
I mean, like, but- Very rare on the same team... but you're still talking with Major League Baseball, them being on the same team, and voters that, uh... I mean, writers that are voting on this.
31:58
You think, i- my, my, my first instinct says they're gonna split the vote, and it's g- it's gonna open up s- for someone else to win this thing. Right. But also- That's my first instinct, too...
32:07
but then- That's why I wanted to talk to you about it... but then, so then we get to the next step. Who's going to win? Who's gonna get those first place votes? I don't understand how you can...
32:17
If the Yankees win 110 games this year without Gerrit Cole for most of the year- Mm... how do you not give one of these guys [laughs] the MVP? Well, no, uh, e- Especially if both of them play the full season.
32:26
Now, injuries could work this out. I agree with you, but it goes back to point, that's, if that's point two, it goes back to point one immediately, right? Uh, who's- Who are you voting for?
32:34
Yeah, who are we voting for, and if the votes end up getting split, then- I don't think they'll get split as much as we think they're gonna get split, but our instinct says they're gonna get split because- Right...
32:45
we have this view of society that we like to see people dragged down to our level. So we see this embarrassment of riches for the Yankees- Okay, so-...
32:54
with two players at the top, we're like, "Nah, they're both, yeah, they both cancel each other out." Okay, so then the, then it's the narrative game, right? And does Aaron Judge always win that?
33:02
Like, i- it's the- I give it to Soto this year. Okay. Like, yeah, but, like, isn't Aaron Judge always gonna be the most po- more popular name? Yes, but new team, new environment, new league.
33:13
For him to hit the ground running like he did, I think that's the more impressive season. Okay. That's just my opinion. I'm not a voter.
33:19
We'll have a little more on this because I think we're actually getting information from people who are voting, which thank you. We'll wrap up the Numbers game, a numbers game, on the other side.
33:30
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33:52
We are this close. You can't see me right now, but I'm giving the, the little small, you know, minuscule finger sign here.
33:59
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34:09
That's code VSiN. New customers, 150 in bonus bets when you bet just five bucks. Only on DraftKings. The crown is yours. All right, let's wrap up a numbers game. Been a fun show.
34:21
I'll be back tomorrow in for Gil Alexander, and he will be back next week. Kelly Bidlin here with us as well. Excited to get to tomorrow's show. A- again, breaking news if you were not with us a little earlier.
34:33
Chris Felica, The Bear, um, will be on tomorrow to talk, uh, some ponies. The Belmont. He is likely in Saratoga right now. The Belmont Stakes at Saratoga. Um, and we'll get that full breakdown tomorrow.
34:44
Anyone else of note? Should be joining us tomorrow. Should be joining us. I, I, I, w- I, I don't want to oversell because- That's fair... I know he is doing a lot of rehearsals tomorrow for Fox.
34:51
Uh, it is gonna try to squeeze us in. Balance the schedule. Yes. Let's leave it at this. In Major League Baseball, we call it the projected starter. Right. Correct. It could- Exactly... it could change.
34:59
Projected to be with us. Projected. [laughs] Lou Finoccharo will definitely be with us, with us. Lou Finoccharo will absolutely be on. Little college baseball, a little NHL with him, a little USC, new time of year.
35:07
I love talking to Sweet Lou, Gam Blue. Um, talk a little, uh, puck and whatever else is on his mind. Um, and hopefully we'll get The Bear on as well to talk, uh, uh, ponies. Again, I, I don't handicap horse racing.
35:18
I love betting horse racing. It's another one of those sports, kind of similar to hockey, great watch, not a market that I, you know, spend a lot of time in.
35:28
But when the big things are happening, I'm always, I always got a few pennies, a few shekels- Yeah... uh, invested. I, I'll tell you, Jared, I, I, um, I'm definitely the guy who bets on, on all the Triple Crown races.
35:40
Uh, usually bet, like, on that... I'm, I'm the average Joe be- better, right? I'll pick, like, two horses to win. Yep. That's it, and I, I- Couple long shots in the Derby always.
35:47
And then in the Preakness and the Belmont I tend to go a little more favorite heavy. Yeah. Yeah. But the Derby, we hit the Derby, which was awesome. Yeah, we did. Me and you did. Live. That's right.
35:55
[laughs] I was live on this air, what was it, like, a month ago? Yeah. Feels like 10 years ago based off of all that's happened since then. Um, but horse racing is just, it's such a great...
36:04
I always tell, if you're trying to get involved in gambling, like, y- you, you're turning on, if you're watching this show, you're involved in gambling in some capacity. Mm-hmm. This advice is not for you.
36:13
But if, I get a lot of friends that reach out to me, "Hey, your career's going so well. I saw you on this show." Like, what are you talking about? Y- obviously not a gambler.
36:22
I always tell them horse racing and soccer are the best two sports to start, and here's why. Soccer, of all the sports that involve a ball or a puck, it's the lowest of all the totals.
36:35
Two and a half is usually the total. Right. Sometimes it's two You're not handicapping a lot. Like, you, you, you need two things to happen in the, in the match in order for you to win.
36:44
So it's like less, right, control what you can control, and I know it's a boring [laughs] sport to watch, I get that, but when you're handicapping it, if you're really interested in getting involved in gambling, understanding the odds of something happening
37:00
is hard enough. Understanding the odds of something happening in the NBA 200 and something times in, in points-wise- Yep... it's a lot of volume. Baseball, [laughs] weird.
37:14
Hockey, niche sport, totals can be a little bit higher, but still relatively low. I think hockey's a good introductory sport too, 'cause the totals are still low, five, five and a half, six.
37:23
Football, most people get involved in football because they watch it, but there's a lot of moving parts. It's also the sharpest of all the markets- Yeah... hardest to win in.
37:31
I always tell people soccer because it's, it's palatable from a total perspective, and I always tell people horse racing, because horse racing helps you understand odds. And, like, betting on something happening
37:44
is a much longer shot because of the odds associated with it and the implied probabilities.
37:50
Again, this i- this is not for you guys, because you all are, you know, experienced gamblers if you're watching this show, but I think hockey and horse ra- or excuse me, soccer and horse racing are my two favorite sports to get involved in for- Yeah, I think, I think the only thing, the only thing I, I'd warn with, with horse racing is just the parimutuel markets, right?
38:05
That's very- Like, you're never, you're never gonna get that-... tricky... in sports betting.
38:07
[laughs] No, you're n- p- the parimutuel is actually, to be fair, it throws off a lot of people, and a lot of people get really upset about it. I understand why, but it, it is what it is.
38:16
All right, let's wrap up, um, the show by, by continuing our discussion about what we were doing in the MLB futures markets. Um, the, the, the thing with Soto and Judge, so MLB.com does this straw poll. NBA does it too.
38:29
Tim Bontemps does it periodically throughout the year. Baseball's done this now for the last couple years.
38:33
It's a little bit more quiet on the baseball side, because let's be honest, in May and June, we're not really focused on baseball a whole lot, unless you're a diehard like us.
38:40
Well, in the most recent straw poll, which came out on May 21st, Juan Soto went from 38 first place votes in April down to 28.
38:50
Still the leader by far in terms of first place votes in the MVP market, but significantly less.
38:57
Aaron Judge went from zero to three, so you saw Judge get off the mat and start to gather some first place love, and Kyle Tucker was the big riser, going from zero to six. That's why I made a bet on Tucker.
39:08
It was obvious to me that the voters were starting to respond to his numbers. [laughs] I didn't expect him to get hurt the next week, so- Yeah... that obviously was an unexpected derailment.
39:18
I would not recommend making a bet on Kyle Tucker now, because he fouled a ball off his shin.
39:23
He should be back tomorrow, but obviously a little more- You might as well wait and see the odds on him come down, yeah You might as well wait.
39:28
10 to one is gonna be there in another week or two, and you'll get another straw poll come mid-June, and you'll be able to base your odds then. But I think Ramirez makes sense.
39:37
He didn't get any love in the markets, but I think the narrative makes sense based off of what the Guardians are doing. Big win for them yesterday. Actually, they were rained out yesterday.
39:44
Two days ago, they came back and beat the Royals. I think they're going to win that division. I think Jose Ramirez is going to be among the league leaders in RBIs. I think that number, 20, 25 to one, will come down.
39:55
But I also think either Soto or Judge are gonna win this award. It's about picking the right guy. Soto makes sense based off of the intangibles I just told you, but if Judge smacks 55, 60 home runs- Yeah.
40:08
[sighs] That's where that, though the headlines and the nar- the narrative might take that over. It might overtake it.
40:13
I will, I will say, though, that is, Tucker and Ramirez, the par- par- the past few weeks, and you've heard it on this show, uh, but, you know, I've heard it from many other baseball guys that I respect, it feels like those are the bets right now.
40:23
R- Ramirez specifically. I, I- Yeah... his name keeps coming up over and over again I would lay off Tucker because of the injury. Right, yeah.
40:28
Because naturally there's gonna be a dip in the market there any time you miss. He missed two games. He might miss another one tomorrow. We'll see.
40:36
Um- I- it's a long season, not worth betting till you know he's back and he's fine, yeah. And exactly.
40:40
Y- if the Astros, they have no desire to rush him back, although to be fair, the Astros are not exactly, uh, sunshine and rainbows in the standings right now.
40:47
But, uh, they have enough there to last a week, that if he misses four or five games, his number's gonna take a dip just based off of the initial impact of that. But I don't think his odds to win the award in the end,
41:00
if he's gonna win this award, it's not gonna be in June. He's gonna win it in August and September because he's gonna lead the, the Astros back on this crazy comeback and they're gonna win the division.
41:08
To me, that is the value with betting Kyle Tucker. It's do you think Houston can come back and make, make a name for themselves in this division? Right now, it looks like it's Seattle's division to lose.
41:17
Um, but we'll see. Obviously a lot of season left, and I do think the Astros have a lot of talent. I think Gunner Henderson and Bobby Witt are a year away, and I love those guys to death.
41:30
They are shooting star players in this league. Obviously Gunner won Rookie of the Year last year. I don't think either, well, I don't think Baltimore's winning the AL East.
41:40
I think Yankees are winning the AL East, and I don't think Kansas City's winning the AL Central. So I think it's hard for me to bet on those guys knowing that they're gonna be playing second fiddle in their own division.
41:51
I don't think the same is true with the Astros or with the, with the Guardians. I do think the Astros are gonna come back and win that division.
41:59
I do think the Guardians are gonna win that division, and that's why I'm a little more comfortable with Tucker and Ramirez, but at the end of the day, at some point in the next month or two,
42:12
I will make a bet on either Judge or Soto to kind of balance my action a little bit. I don't know which one and I don't know when. I'm leaning Soto, but I ain't there yet.
42:22
Yeah, it's, it, it's gonna be interesting to see what happens with their, with those odds too, right? [laughs] Like, let's just see. I think they're both gonna stay the same for most of the summer. Right?
42:29
Yeah, like, if they both keep up the same, same-ish level of play- Unless one of them gets hurt. Yeah, I'm with you. That's the only reason that one of them would dip dramatically. Yeah. I, I think you're right.
42:37
I think you're right. So any, uh, d- any NBA finals bets for you tonight? Was there, was there one you said you were gonna look at? I'm going to do, I'm gonna bet Tatum over rebounds. I'm gonna bet Kyrie over rebounds.
42:48
I think w- I think naturally we're gonna see a lower scoring game tonight, but I don't think it's gonna be... I don't necessarily think it's gonna be an, a stone cold under. Hmm.
43:00
Like, I think it'll be a game, if you want me to script it out, one of the teams is going to be impacted by the rust, shooting wise. I think it's gonna be Dallas, but I'm not 100% sure.
43:14
Yeah, I think if I was, if I was looking that way, it's what you brought up earlier in the show, I think I'd look maybe first half, first quarter, something like that. First quarter under if you really wanna get sweaty.
43:22
I think they'll shake it off. You know I love the, you know I love the first quarter, the first inning bets. But I do think there will be a point in this game where both offenses get into a rhythm. Yeah, me too.
43:33
And then just like any NBA game, honestly, the best way to bet the NBA is live. That, that has been my feeling this entire post season. We do these shows, we have to give out our opinions. Hmm.
43:45
So we don't have the advantage of just, you know, being on the air 24/7. We can just tell you exactly the moment we bet live. That's what social media's for.
43:53
But I, I think I'll bet a lot of rebounding pro- I love Zachary's, uh, Maxi Kleber prop. Yeah, yeah. I, I, I think, I love props where it's one and done. Um, and I think Boston wins.
44:04
I think Boston covered, but I'm not 100% sure on that. I think game one is much wait and see. Yeah, I'm in on the over pregame. I'm with you.
44:12
I might get attracted to Dallas side live, but I, I, I'll probably be staying away from the side this game one. We'll break it all down tomorrow. Exciting to have to start.
44:18
It's been a great, uh, show, and I will be back tomorrow in for Gill Alexander here on A Numbers Game. For Kelly Bidlin and our entire decent crew and all of our guests, thanks for joining us. [upbeat music]
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