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Jun 7, 2024
A Numbers Game | June 7, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | June 7, 2024 | Hour 1
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. It is Friday morning. Happy Friday.
0:11
I am Jared Smith in for Gil Alexander today. This is a numbers game powered by our friends at ZYN Nicotine. Kelly Bidlin here with us as well, live from the D in downtown Las Vegas.
0:22
Um, Kelly, let's jump right into it because, uh, we waited a whole week and we got, I- what I called a hellacious blowout. Wasn't quite that bad final score wise.
0:31
Uh, NBA finals game one last night, Boston, uh, 107-89 the final. Obviously they covered the spread. Did they, did it go over? Did it barely go over? No, no, no, no. Stayed under, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah.
0:42
So that was a, a good call, um, to the under bettors. I know this as an over better [laughs]. Well, I know the first half was like right on the number, right?
0:48
[laughs] Yeah, it w- yeah, it was tighter because of that massive first quarter from Boston, yeah. Yes. So the first...
0:52
It's actually funny, it's the exact opposite of how I thought in my mind it would play out, which would be first quarter under, first half under. I guess technically it did. And then eventually,
1:02
I think in the second half, Boston just kind of went into their classic cruise control and, and didn't really, uh, sweat much. Although there was a moment in the game where Dallas made it interesting.
1:12
I believe they cut it to eight. Yep. But right at that moment, Boston just hit the gas again and, and, and it was bye-bye, see you later in the afterburner.
1:20
So I, I think obviously what we learned last night is Boston's a really good team and when they need to turn it on, they can, and they look... I mean, they look very different with Porziņģis.
1:31
We haven't seen him in a month. He got hurt in I think it was game four, game three or game four of the, of the Heat series in the first round, and Boston has looked great without him.
1:41
But with him, Jayson Tatum didn't hardly have to do anything last night offensively. Porziņģis came in and scored a bunch of points.
1:47
I think he scored, like, the first s- I think he's made three or four out of his first five shots and he just looked absolutely, uh, fantastic. So Boston gets the win, they cover, game stays under.
1:57
Celtics now obviously, uh, a, a massive favorite in the series. I just, I, I don't know if there's anything Dallas can do to win four out of the next six based on how deep the Celtics are.
2:08
Yeah, I'm try- I'm trying not to overreact from game one. It, it's- I know, it's hard not to after how that first half looked. It- It's very hard not to. It is hard not to. Don't get me wrong, that was a, a...
2:17
I, I, me- Porziņģis was amazing. I, I, I, you know, I w- Floodgates... I was cautioning people for a week, okay, we still don't really know. We can't assume this guy's gonna be 100%.
2:26
Then we get the report before the game that he's gonna come off the bench. And while I think that- Yeah, I'm sure that scared everyone who was on Porziņģis overs [laughs]. Right.
2:34
I mean, in, in, in the rear view, now that we're past this game- He's not coming off the bench in game two, I don't think... it looks like a smart... I don't know. It looked like a smart move.
2:41
They, they kept the rhythm going of what they had done with Horford. That's fair. Maybe they really like Horford.
2:45
Yeah, it, it, it worked out well for those minutes when he was on at the beginning of the game, beginning of the second half.
2:50
So I'm inter- I w- that was surprising though, simply because Porziņģis doesn't come off the bench. No. He's not a guy that they've ever tried to do that- He's been the starter the whole year... anywhere he's been.
2:59
That's why I think he'll be back in the lineup at some point. Maybe not game two. Maybe he needs to build his minutes up. How many minutes did he play last night? Was he- Uh, he was- Was he north of 25?
3:07
No, he w- um, let's see, what did he finish with? He was only at 20. He was exactly at 20. What, what- And, and I think that's probably fa- a fair number.
3:14
I, I think my guess is the point total's gonna move up, and I don't know if the minutes will move up next game, and I think you might get an opportunity to go under if you're brave.
3:21
You mean mi- the minutes total goes- The minutes won't go up, but the point total will. Like, his point prop will likely increase- Oh, oh, I see what you're saying... in game two. I see what you're saying, yeah.
3:29
But I don't know if he's gonna play north of 25 minutes. Now, the blowout didn't help his cause. Right. If it was a close game, he might have played more minutes. But maybe not his first game back.
3:38
Maybe he wouldn't have gone north of 25. I guess w- yeah, that's a good point. I guess that is one unknown we have actually out of this game. How many minutes is he really gonna play?
3:45
What's the, what's the max minutes he's actually going to play? I, I mean, they, they said before the game there was no minutes restriction whatsoever. Okay.
3:51
But, you know, they, it's easy to say that to, you know, to everybody. Yeah, they'll say anything to get, yeah. Exactly. Um, I mean, look, I thought the, I thought the Boston offense...
3:59
A- a- and look, the Porziņģis, Porziņģis is where you got to start. First quarter- Yeah... they were amazing. Unbelievable. Porziņģis was amazing.
4:05
Um, they came out and punched Dallas in the mouth, and it was tough for them to recover from there.
4:10
I, I will say, Jared, I think after that first quarter, okay, if you look at, like, the next two and a half, 'cause, you know, the second half and the first, fourth quarter was just garbage time. Yeah. Uh, okay.
4:20
The, the, uh, Boston offensive rating was, was just fine. It was good. It was kind of their normal level. They, Dallas defense settled in a bit more. What I'm- They did...
4:29
what I'm way more concerned about as a Dallas backer, a guy who has Dallas futures tickets, is the other side of the ball. Offense.
4:35
Where series after series, the Clippers, Oklahoma City, Minnesota, were not able to slow down De Luca options, right?
4:44
The screenplay where it's gonna open up options either for the alley-oop or in the corner three, where Boston had that all covered. Yeah.
4:53
And I think the most concerning thing for me, Jared, is a lot of this stuff we kind of knew what Boston was gonna do coming in, and it sure looked like Boston spent a lot of time preparing for this, watching a lot of tape, and Dallas, and I even said this on air once or twice, Dallas kind of had the attitude of, "Nobody's stopped us yet.
5:14
Why are we gonna change up anything?" And oh boy, they got stopped immediately and all game long because all this turned into was Luka Dončić iso for the entire game, and that was the only thing that was working.
5:27
Yeah, I think the, the Porziņģis stat that you put in the rundown here, second player in the last 50 years to score 20 in 21 fewer minutes in the finals.
5:34
One, arguably one of the most efficient games in [laughs] NBA finals history.
5:39
Um, my guess is, and I'm assuming there are props out for game two, my guess is his points prop will increase, everything across the board will increase, and you as the bettor will have to make the decision if, if the minutes, uh, you know, the, the, the, the short time span he was on the floor was
6:00
a blowout, the reason for the blowout- Yeah... or he could- 14 and a half. I don't remember what it was in game one I think it was right around there. I don't remember Yeah, I, I th- m- my guess is that'll get bet up.
6:12
Um- Minus 130 to the over already. Yeah. I, I don't recall what the game one number was. If you bet it, congrats. I saw some people I trust on the first quarter over. That ended up hitting easily.
6:23
Um, the other big takeaway for me last night, besides the fact [laughs] that the Celtics are really good. N- newsflash, the Celtics are a good basketball team. Um, they're now a $4 favorite to win the finals.
6:33
But the biggest takeaway for me last night was Kyrie.
6:38
And I don't want to say it was 'cause he didn't burn sage before the game, or because there's just this magic juju when he goes to Boston, but he's o- he's 0 and 11 his last 11 games against the Celtics now.
6:49
Um, he did not look efficient. He was six for 19 from the floor. He only had two assists. The rebounding numbers were down. This is a guy that when he's at his peak, is
7:01
on the glass, dishing the basketball, getting into the paint and scoring. Of all the Mavericks starters last night, he had the worst plus/minus at minus 19.
7:08
So I, I think that is a bigger concern for me for Dallas' offense than Luka not making shots. And Luka was okay, 12 to 26, not great. He made 30 points. He was four of 12 from three.
7:19
I would say that's average from three. Mm. You know, 33%. I think he, in, in his mind, he probably didn't play well, but statistically speaking, he was maybe average, slightly below average last night.
7:29
But Kyrie was well below average. Um, the Gafford, um, uh, analysis we gave out, that his n- his minutes were gonna be down, that was correct. He only played 14 minutes last night. Um, you saw Kleber at 19, Lively at 18.
7:43
Yeah, baby. So I think that's the adjustment you see maybe with some of the prop numbers going forward, is you'll see Gafford's go down and you'll see Kleber, even though Kleber [laughs] was...
7:51
I, I, we had Zach going on yesterday, gave out over two and a half points. I was on it. He finished on two. He was on the floor. He was on the floor though. Yeah.
7:57
If, if you tell me he plays 19 minutes, I say that prop goes over easy. Yeah. Uh, that was one I was watching the whole time. Yeah.
8:03
Th- thinking of both you guys [laughs] 'cause we had seen the s- shooting troubles from him the series before. I saw the analysis was right. Yeah. 19 minutes, he played the most of all the big men for the, for the Mavs.
8:11
Yeah, I, I mean, Lively got in foul trouble. I- Yeah... it, uh, there's a lot of... So like the Kyrie thing, that was big, right? But for me, that's bad game. That's, it w- Okay... he had, he had a bad game.
8:21
I- You don't think it's bad juju? No, I don't think- Okay... I don't think this is a bad sign. Karma's weird with this, with this sport sometimes. What...
8:27
I think what everything else on the Dallas offense happened was a bad sign. Okay. The fact that Luka was not able to work the screen game and find that w- that open big man for an alley-oop because- Sure...
8:37
of the coverage that Boston- Yeah, only had one assist. Is that the... That has to probably be the lowest assist game for Luka ever, all year. Ev- he's ever had, ever had in the playoffs. That's wild. Um, uh- Wild...
8:44
one assist with, what is it? Nine, nine blocks, nine blocks for Boston, nine assists for Mavericks. That's the biggest thing. That's all you need to know from this game. Yeah.
8:52
The Da- the Dallas offense, the ball ended up sticking in Luka Dončić's hand, hands, and they weren't able to move the ball around, find open guys like they had in past series.
9:01
And what we all know, Boston's defense is really good. It was the second-best defense in the NBA all season. Yep.
9:06
Why I didn't, why I didn't think this was gonna be a huge problem for Dallas, and they will make adjustments, but why I, I didn't think this was gonna be a big problem, Jared, is i- it wasn't a problem.
9:15
They picked apart Minnesota, who had by far the best defense in the NBA- Yeah... uh, this regular season. They picked apart OKC, who had s- who at least has similar type pieces to what Boston has.
9:26
The Clippers, they picked apart.
9:27
It's just, I, uh, it's gonna be really interesting to see how they make adjustments going forward, um, when, uh, Boston seemed prepared for everything that Luka Dončić was gonna throw at 'em.
9:38
And what it reminded me of, Jared, we talk about this a lot with Nikola Jokić. It was, we're gonna take away all these passing opti- options to wide open guys- Yeah, make you a scorer... and you can score.
9:50
Go ahead and score all you want. Well, I think if you take that at its core, right, if you just take it at face value, then you would say Luka's points prop has value to the over, the assist prop has value to the under.
10:03
We'll see what kind of adjustments are made. Usually, the points prop hovers around... I saw last night, I think it was 31 and a half. Yeah. Just stayed under, barely stayed under. Yeah.
10:10
[laughs] Probably a bad beat that it stayed under when you take 26 shots. I think I saw some 30 and a halves out there, and yeah, he, uh, yeah, goes to the bench with a few minutes left in the game. Yeah, the blowout.
10:20
See, see, this is the... And I, I, I don't bet the NBA during the regular season. Yeah. It's in the middle of October, November, December. There's football.
10:26
I'm focusing on football, and then we get to April, and then obviously things wake up. Mm. But then baseball starts to take some of my attention, and I, I would call myself a co-pilot in the NBA markets. Right.
10:36
Like, I, I rely on a lot of people like you and JBT and other people I trust in the industry to kind of point me in a direction that at least is gonna, you know, uh, you know, hopefully, uh, make some sound analysis.
10:47
When I watch the games now, it's obvious to me that, that Luka needs... There, there, there needs to be some adjustment made. Yeah. We'll see what that adjustment is. The number didn't adjust much for game two.
10:58
It's still kind of sitting right around seven, which is where kind of we closed last night. Yeah, yeah, and it's, I, it's side and total I think are really tough for me to kind of get on board right now.
11:05
Yeah, not, not a big adjustment off of game one. Yeah. I, I, I don't have, I don't think I'll have much game two for side or total.
11:11
I was, again, I was on the over last night, so I gotta see this Dallas adjustment first on offense before I can get back on that side of things. Yeah.
11:19
Um, uh, look, if you wanted to go on a da- if you were saying, to pound on the table here going Dallas team total under next game, it's really hard for me to argue.
11:26
The one bet I know I'll be making now that we did just pull up some player prop numbers, uh, PJ Washington over 11 and a half points.
11:33
I thought one of the few things that looked like it was working with Dallas' offense was PJ Washington attacking these smaller defenders on Boston. Love it. Fun Friday show plan. Lou Finocchario, Chris Fallica coming up.
11:43
This is the Numbers Game on VSiN. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network
12:02
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12:13
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12:26
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12:38
Use the promo code ANG. VSiN, the sports betting network. A numbers game here, Friday morning, downtown Las Vegas, live at the D. Jarred Smith in for Gil Alexander today. Gil will be back on Monday.
12:49
Uh, Kelly Bidlin here with us as well. Very exciting show planned. Um, Kelly did a fantastic job booking, as he always does.
12:55
We're gonna have Lou Finaccaro coming up on the other side of this segment, um, talking NHL, the Stanley Cup Final. Singular, one cup, uh, final. Tomorrow starts, uh, Edmonton and Florida.
13:07
I saw our friends hanging out there in sunrise. Beautiful sunrise, Florida. Hey. Kelly, you know that area very well. [laughs] Um, just a, a hop, skip, and a jump away from the Evergl- literally- Yes...
13:17
a hop, skip, and a jump. Like, if you jump over the highway, you're in the Everglades. A very unique place to be holding a sta- [laughs] a hockey championship, but that is where we are.
13:27
Um, Panthers, Oilers, I'm sure the scene will be much more wintry when they go back to Edmonton- Yeah... um, a little later [laughs] on in the series. Uh, we'll get Lou's thoughts.
13:35
We've, we've talked about this last week, though, on the show. It- it's the, what, what they're, the, the, the, uh, the strategy of putting the arena where it's at, it's the same- I was there the day it opened...
13:45
it, it's the same idea as where they put the Hard Rock down there, right? Where you can draw from Miami, Fort Lauderdale- Yeah... the Palm Beaches, but it's- What they didn't do with the Marlins stadium... out west.
13:54
Do what they didn't do with the Marlins stadium. The Marlins stadium, they plopped down in the middle of a very bad part of basically, like, you know, Coral Gables area, South Miami.
14:03
Not the nice part where University of Miami is, kind of on the other side of the tracks. It is in a weird, very weird spot. N- not to get too much into the Florida geography, but I, I was...
14:12
So I moved, I was born in New York City. Here you go, I'm sorry, just gonna get the whole picture. No, go for it, man. I was born in New York City. In 1991, my parents moved down to South Florida.
14:22
I was five years old, four and a half. Just a crazy story. You never hear about New Yorkers moving to South Florida. Never, New Yorkers never move down to Florida. It's just not how it goes.
14:28
It was unfortunate, my dad got sick. The kidney doctors were better in South Florida than they were in New York, and you know, living in New York, not as healthy as living in South Florida.
14:36
Um, so we moved down to South Florida, a New Yorker living in South Florida, growing up in South Florida in the '90s during the, the Miami Heat, New York Knick rivalry days [laughs], and then of course the Panthers, who were in the Stanley Cup Final in 1996.
14:49
I went to one game in every series that... We were big hockey fans. I played hockey growing up. I was a goalie. I was a big Mike Richter fan. That was, he was my idol growing up. Um, and we went, we had tickets.
15:00
It wasn't the hottest ticket back then. Right [laughs]. We went, we saw, they faced, this is 1996, they went on this unbelievable Stanley Cup Final run. They faced the Boston Bruins in the first round.
15:10
I got to see Cam Neely, which was awesome. Then in the second round, they faced the Flyers. I got to see Eric Lindros in the playoffs. The Panthers were obliterating these teams with Lindros and Neely.
15:20
Then in the Eastern Conference Final, they faced the Penguins with Lemieux and Jagr. [laughs] I mean, you wanna talk about a gauntlet. And then in the final, they finally succumbed to Joe Sakic- Yeah...
15:31
uh, and Patrick Roy and the Avalanche, but the year of the rat wa- that was that year. And I remember we had great seats, third, fourth row up from the ice, fantastic seats, and they would throw the rats on the ice.
15:43
I'm 10 years old, and I was scared out of my mind because they would score the goal and your brain would be going crazy, 'cause you know, you're a 10-year-old and they're ringing that crazy horn- Yeah...
15:52
when they score the goal. And then you would turn around, and it was just like an avalanche, no pun intended, or I guess pun intended- [laughs]... of plastic rats that they would...
16:02
[laughs] And not all of them made the ice. Some of them would fall in short. I u- I caught a couple of them. Core childhood memories- It's, uh-... in, in that 1996 final run...
16:11
a plastic rat, though, better than, uh, like real catfish and stuff like that being thrown, so. Well, yeah, they, well, they throw the catfish, they throw the octopus in Detroit. Yeah, the octopus, yeah [laughs].
16:18
I know that's a thing. Um, I never understood, not to go cl- crazy off-topic here, and we'll get Lou Finaccaro's hockey thoughts, real hockey thoughts on the other side.
16:27
I never, I never liked the hat trick, throwing of the hat. If you bring a nice hat to the game- Oh, gosh, yeah, I'm not throwing my hat... I'm not throwing that. You're never getting that back.
16:36
I always wondered about, how do you- I would never do that... like, how you sneaking in a catfish or an octopus? You know what I mean?
16:41
Well, they have, I think they look the other way for some of this stuff, 'cause they kinda- Like, you concealing that under your shirt or something?
16:47
I think- Like, that's gotta be a nice smell for like the rest of the day... but although in these, in these post-COVID times, they don't let you do anything that you're not allowed to do in these arenas.
16:54
[laughs] Um, but that, that is an interesting dynamic. All right, let's, uh, um, uh, that tangent, I'm gonna- Yeah, hard transition...
17:00
I'm gonna, I'm gonna ask you to clip that tangent, because I don't think I've ever told- [laughs]...
17:03
that story on air of me, um, going to all these hockey games growing up as a kid and the Panth- And the irony is, last year on VSiN, when the Panthers were in the Cup and they were in Vegas, Bill Lindsay, who's the Panthers radio play-by-play guy, um, or color, uh, commentator, came into the studio and did a segment, and the irony was, I posted a picture on my Twitter, like in '96, I was watching him play in the Stanley Cup Final with the Panthers, and then 20 years, some odd later, I'm interviewing him before a Stan- It just, life and, and, and hockey comes full circle.
17:35
That's a great story. It, it really- Yeah... it really was. And I, I...
17:38
See, when, when you're able to share those stories with you, the audience, I think, I hope it connects you more to my life story, because it allows you to add some context and, and connect to the audience, 'cause that's what this whole thing is.
17:48
We're all just spinning on this crazy earth together, um, as we watch what, last night was, I, I'll be honest, a very uneventful, um, uninspiring game one in terms of entertainment value.
17:59
If you were on the Celtics, obviously, you know, there was [laughs] good value there. You didn't have a sweat, um, when you covered your bet. But I, I think overall, when you look at where the futures market shifts-
18:12
I, I don't really see anything.
18:13
Like, if, if you really think Dallas' game, you know, betting them at 3 to 1 right now, you know, you're getting a better price, but you're down on one in the series and they've got to win four out of six.
18:21
Like, what, like, what's the win equity of betting the, the Mavericks to win this series right now? Like, I don't know if they can win four. I don't know if anyone can beat the Celtics 4-6.
18:28
Yeah, I'm, I, I'm, I'm not freaking out yet. I, I'm also not running to add, though, to my positions. I would not add anything on the, in the, in that regard. Yeah, from a series price perspe- uh, perspective.
18:38
I was interested to see where this game two line was going to go because it opened, like, seven, seven and a half. Yeah. And I, I- We saw some buyback on Dallas. See, I think it'll flip.
18:46
I think, uh, like, the, the, the public was on the dog last night. My guess is the public will be on Boston in game two. Yeah, I, I mean, Circa just went to six and a half, so obviously, obviously- There you go...
18:54
Dallas getting bet again. I w- I was interested to see if it... I kind of thought what you thought. Even, even with it being reopened, uh, for game two at seven, seven and a half- Yeah...
19:03
I kind of thought we might see an eight, and at that point I'd probably be in on Dallas- Yep... um, gambling on them.
19:09
You know, making the offensive adjustments that they're going to need to be able to attack this Boston, uh, Boston defense. Again, that was, that was the biggest part of the game to me. I, I...
19:18
What the Celtics did offensively, I think that first quarter really covers up how... Okay, it was still, it was a, it was a good offensive performance, but that first quarter was amazing.
19:29
That was the part of the game that it was at another level. They know they didn't need to play at that level for the rest of the game, and, and when they were pushed in the third quarter, they answered right back.
19:39
I, I think that was so, I, that's what I always look for. Well, they got sloppy, too, in the beginning of the third quarter. They got very sloppy in the beginning of the third quarter. Yeah, Tatum started holding it.
19:46
It's all, all the things we've knocked the Celtics for, for before, that's where the, how they started the third. It was, "Ah, this game's in the bag." Yep. "We don't really need to be as active."
19:55
And then when it became an eight-point game, it was, "Okay, boys, time to flip the switch again." It's kind of an enigma because that was my initial read on the Celtics.
20:02
That's why I bet them not to sweep the Pacers, and I think that read is correct.
20:09
I just think the di- like, our instinct as gamblers and experienced, savvy sports watchers, when you see teams play with their food, your first instinct is to say, "That ain't gonna last.
20:21
You're gonna get beat eventually if you play like that." I think the difference, at least what I've noticed in this run for Boston, they have the abi- not all teams have this ability.
20:32
They have the ability to turn on the switch. Yeah, it's- And just magically say, "Okay, time to play defense now. Nobody else scores." And that's what they did in the late third quarter, early fourth.
20:41
And that's where it starts. That's, a- a- I know it's, like, the old cliche, but it, it, it- You can't flip the switch? Maybe not all- No, I'm talking, I'm talking more on the defensive side. Oh, okay.
20:49
It starts with the defense. Yeah. Right?
20:50
'Cause the offense, we talked about this yesterday, and you saw it within the actual game, but this is where I was making the point of I think it's unfair for us, it, it's fair to expect Boston to be great because they had a, a top 10, top 15 all-time regular season- Yeah...
21:06
is where they ended up, ended up finishing, if you just look at net rating ver- versus strength of schedule. That's where Boston, the Boston Celtics ended up fin- finishing.
21:13
In a seven-game series, I think it is unfair almost against any team they play to expect them to sweep because of how many threes they take. It's shooting regression- Variance... and variance.
21:23
It's just gonna happen, right? Yep. And you saw that within a single game last night- Yep... between they ca- they came out hot as hell in that first quarter, and then the- Then cooled off...
21:32
okay, and then third quarter kind of cooled off. Dallas started making some shots. All of a sudden you got a game again before they picked some things back up.
21:39
But as long as that defense is there, that's where I'm concerned about Dallas. Is it fair to say that Boston covering and winning is good for the under, and Dallas covering and winning is good for the over?
21:50
Yeah, pro- I, I, I, uh, I think that's a great question right now, Jarred. I think absolutely as you're going into game two, that's how I'm looking at it. So that's my analysis right there.
21:59
Dallas is getting some, some money at seven, seven and a half. That number hasn't changed from game one, but the total's dropped a point.
22:06
Yeah, I don't, I don't really think that, I don't think that Boston offense is going anywhere, and the- No... and the Dallas offense cannot- Has a lot of upside...
22:13
they cannot be any worse, really, than they were last night. Yeah. So my initial read based off of that is maybe there's a hair of value to the over, and maybe that over- Yeah...
22:21
which is now sitting at 214 and a half at DraftKings, maybe by Friday night, Saturday morning, into Sunday morning maybe goes back up to 215, 215 and a half, which is where we saw game one close.
22:32
All right, switching gears completely. We'll go full segment into the ice. NHL, Lou Finoccharo next here on VSiN, a Numbers Game.
22:40
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22:55
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23:24
Friday morning, downtown Las Vegas here at the D. It is A Numbers Game. Jarred Smith in for Gil Alexander today. Kelly Bidlin with us as well.
23:32
And joining us now, VSiN contributor, does a fantastic job with the About Business podcast. He is Lou Finoccharo. Follow him on social media @gamblou. And Lou, we've got a full plate today.
23:42
We were joking, uh, before we came on that, um, not only hockey, UFC, and also the Super Regionals starting today in college baseball.
23:49
We'll put the fighting and the hardball to the side for just a minute because the Stanley Cup, uh, i- is going to be awarded at some point in the next couple of weeks. Game one is tomorrow night down in South Florida.
24:00
It's the Oilers and the Panthers. Florida is a favorite in game one, getting a lot of handle. They're a favorite in the series.
24:06
Um, Lou, your overall analysis as we start to get ready, um, for a Stanley Cup Final that is the longest in terms of distance between the two cities that we've ever seen.
24:16
As well-- well, first of all, guys, thanks so much for having me on. Pleasure to be with you.
24:21
As far as the Cup is concerned, this is a compelling Cup, and it's really compelling simply because we have a team north of the border in Edmonton there.
24:30
It would be so great for hockey to get an, a Canadian team into the final, and we have that. And now, uh, I usually say that it would be outstanding for hockey to have a Canadian team hoist the Cup.
24:46
However, with Florida futures, I temper that expectation.
24:50
That said, I do believe that the overall populace, we may get some, a few more eyeballs viewing this final series, and we may get a few more dollars on Edmonton even though we're not seeing that right now, simply because of the desire to see a Canadian team hoist.
25:09
Hmm. It, it is always interesting when you see the regional splits. I always say this when there's teams in certain states that have strongholds at certain shops, the bias sometimes can impact the number.
25:22
Um, the Canadian markets I don't think have, uh, as much or any effect, frankly, on, on the American markets, but it is always interesting to see how the regional bias kind of plays into account.
25:30
Um, brass tacks with this series. Um, Panthers, I think are the deeper team, but the Oilers have more firepower at the top. The great equalizer is always in net, right?
25:42
Edmonton's gotten some pretty good play from Skinner in net, and that's, I think, the only reason that they're in the final is 'cause they were able to shut down the Stars the last three games of that series, but is that sustainable?
25:49
'Cause we know at their core, Lou, Edmonton is not a defensive-minded team. Well, traditionally, Jared, they have not been. However, their blue line has insulated Skinner and taken a lot of the pressure off of him.
26:04
Consequently, he's playing with great momentum, and their defense is really the story of the Oilers in this playoff run. Now, can they hold up against the big, heavy, thick, pressured Florida forecheck?
26:21
Florida's gonna go out and try and bludgeon this defensive squad on the forecheck. And I do believe, uh, that you gave Florida the depth advantage. I agree with that.
26:33
The issue, however, is can Florida stay out of the box?
26:37
Because special teams swings wildly to the Oilers, and so Florida's gonna have to play physical, but they're also gonna have to play disciplined, and if they play physical, can soften that defense up, I think they can get to Skinner.
26:52
I surely give Bobrovsky an advantage in net. Hmm. Great stuff. Lou Finoccharo, of course, VSiN contributor, host of the About Business podcast. Follow him on Twitter, @GamBlue.
27:02
All right, before we pivot to some other sports, the futures market probably pretty settled right now, but maybe the awards market in the Conn Smythe Trophy market, you might be able to find a hair of value on the Oilers.
27:14
Well, if you're looking, if you're an Oiler fan and you're looking at the Oilers series price, you've seen it go up from 105 to 115.
27:23
However, I think there's a great correlation that if the Oilers win, it's gonna be on the back of McDavid, Draisaitl, and McDavid would be the Conn Smythe favorite. He's currently priced at DraftKings plus 195.
27:38
So to me, especially holding Florida futures, the hedge or the cover or to protect myself surely would be McDavid Conn Smythe at plus 195 to squeeze out another 75 cents or so off of that series line over Edmonton being plus 120 or so right now.
27:57
Great stuff. All right. College baseball, I, so I used to work in college baseball. I, I love the College World Series.
28:04
Um, I think it is a fantastic, uh, event a- and it's become more bettable over the last few years that we now have more markets available. I'm looking at the lines now.
28:12
College World Series Super Regionals starts today, very soon actually. The, uh, Athens Super Regional starts in about, um... Actually, they all kind of start in the next couple hours or so.
28:20
Um, I'm seeing Evansville alive in the Super Regional. They are the big long shot underdog against Tennessee this weekend. Um, a lot of the other prices are a little bit closer, um, to evenly matched.
28:32
Is there a specific side, a specific total, a specific match up that you think we should be isolating this weekend in the Super Regionals?
28:40
Well, one, one thing I would say is that I give tremendous credibility to teams that were in Omaha last year. They know how to get through regionals, super regionals, and we have three teams.
28:52
A Florida team that everyone thought shouldn't be there that's playing their best baseball right now, senior laden. A Virginia squad coached by a guy that went to Creighton in Omaha, who's from Omaha.
29:04
If they get to Omaha, they will be lay down the crowd favorite. And then finally, Tennessee, the number one ranked team.
29:11
We know a number one ranked team hasn't won the College World Series in many years, and between Tennessee and Texas A&M, two SEC teams with stout pitching, you have the two chocks, and there's a as quick a breakdown on it as, as you can.
29:27
I think Tennessee and A&M should be favored, but I think there's a dog or two in the regionals that could be considered- Yeah, I love it... in the Super Regionals. I, I just threw those, uh, picks into a parlay here.
29:38
So Florida's an underdog against Clemson, plus 135. The others are favorites. A&M's minus 425, Virginia's a $3 favorite, and Tennessee, as I mentioned, the big favorite against Evansville.
29:49
But if you think those four teams are gonna qualify for the, uh, College World Series, you can throw that into a parlay, plus 314.
29:55
And again, I, I do like parlaying series prices because you can play games off of each other, especially if one series wraps up early and there's only one left. Again, it gives you flexibility and options.
30:05
I know you can debate the merits and the plus EV value of parlays on your own time. We have, we have UFC fights to talk about, right, Lou?
30:11
Um, uh, I, I am not familiar with, um, whoever's fighting this weekend, but I hope you can fill me in. Is there a UFC pick or bout on your card, um, that is of noteworthy to us?
30:22
The main event is a five-round middleweight bout between Jared Cannonier and a f- f- a, a Russian fighting out of France, uh, Nazar dean Il'ya. Il'ya, a slight favorite here. Uh, he's stepping up in class.
30:36
Uh, Cannonier has fought the elite in the division, only been beaten by, um, Adesanya in a championship where he was hurt in that fight. And so I think Cannonier at an underdog price is a great value.
30:50
He's at an underdog price bec- because he's coming off an MCL surgery, hasn't fought in 18 months.
30:57
Uh, but this is a guy that's fought at heavyweight, light heavyweight, and he's absolutely ripped at middleweight, can go five rounds.
31:04
And I believe that once this fight hits the third round, and I believe it does, that Cannonier will begin to show his, uh, color and class and start to take this fight over as it gets later.
31:16
Lou Finaccaro's always ripped, I can tell you that, man. I love it. Great stuff. All right, Lou, before we let you go here on a Friday, uh, who's winning the Stanley Cup Final? How many games?
31:27
Uh, we're gonna go Florida in seven, only because I'm selfish and I wanna see seven games. [laughs] I, I... So, and we talked about this, um, on other shows.
31:37
I don't think I've ever discussed it with you 'cause, um, you know, we don't get to do a lot together, but the NHL playoffs compared to the NBA playoffs in terms of the entertainment value, I don't think, uh, Kelly, would you agree, like, there's no comparison there?
31:50
You know what? As being the NBA guy- I know, but I, just the playoffs... I feel like I should push back, Jared- Just the playoffs... but it's hard to this, uh, this season, that's for sure.
31:57
Very hard to, very hard to push back on anything. Hockey's always great in the playoffs. Yeah, that's what I'm saying. That's great journalism, Jared. Thank you. Great journalism, Jared.
32:04
[laughs] Getting the NBA guy to come my way a little bit, I love it. And Kelly, great answer. That said, uh, the NBA's not done yet. Let's see if Dallas can come back, win a game or two, and make that compelling as well.
32:16
I'm open. We didn't, we didn't ask Lou about the NBA, but he gave us a little bit of a tease. That is Lou Finaccaro, VSiN contributor. He basically covers every sport in, in the spectrum today.
32:24
College baseball, UFC- Yeah... NHL, and a little NBA analysis. Why not? Lou, have a great weekend, pal. It's great to talk to you. Good luck, everyone. Thanks again so much for having me on, guys. There he goes.
32:33
Lou Finaccaro does a great job, of course, with the About Business podcast contributor here at VSiN. So it, it, we had Stormy on yesterday, Panthers. Mm-hmm.
32:42
I'm on the Panthers, you like the Panthers, Lou likes the Panthers. I don't know if I like the Panthers, but I'm on them because everybody I know- Yeah [laughs]... and respect is.
32:48
Which, you know, y- y- you know how that goes in this business. What could go wrong? What could possibly go wrong with that, Jared? We're all on the Panthers.
32:55
I, so- You know what's different about a numbers game with Jared Smithson, by the way? Uh, the celebrity status is just so overwhelming that it de- God...
33:03
it demands one, two, three, four, five security guards to be out here just for Jared Smith. You gotta be careful. Guys, interviews after the show. [laughs] And autographs, call my agent. We'll charge you a lot.
33:16
Don't worry, I carry around headshots all the time for Jared. Yeah. I, I sell those for 20 bucks a pop. Yeah, and I'll sign them if you're nice. But you have to be nice, you have to buy me a drink.
33:24
[laughs] Um, all right, we'll continue on the other side. I- I'll wrap up a little bit of this hockey stuff and we'll start to touch on the baseball card today. Big card. I was looking at some Nerfy stuff this morning.
33:33
Haven't pulled the trigger yet. Maybe we'll do so live on the air, who knows? Things will get weird here. Friday, a numbers game on VSiN.
33:38
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33:55
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34:00
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Just deposit $25 [laughs] or more, complete the play-through requirement, wager on your favorite horses, and then when the wagers, uh, watch the wagers [laughs] come in. That, that is horse with an R.
34:21
Don't, don't get- Download the DK Horse app now. So no one knows why I'm laughing at myself re- doing that read. So I'm from New York. My friends, we all grew up listening to WFAN Sports Radio in New York.
34:34
Mike Francesa, the legendary- The legend... um, legendary, um, uh, radio host there, he has a parody account on social media that will mock him, um, because of his accent, and amongst other things.
34:46
Listen, when you get to that level of status, you have people on, that take their time, their, their hard-earned time during their day to, to make fun of you on social media.
34:52
It just comes with the territory of, of being famous like he is. Um, but the, the jokes that I always would laugh at is when they would actually imitate him and spell phonetically all the things [laughs] that he says.
35:05
[laughs] And, and, and he talks a lot about horse racing. He owns a horse. I think it's called Francesa. I for- I actually don't know what the name of the horse is. What was the, uh, did he fall asleep on air once?
35:14
Oh, that's legendary stuff. [laughs] Always used to have the Diet Coke too. Um, but the phonetic for how he would say horse was hawse, H-A-W-C-E.
35:25
[laughs] And so any time my friends and I talk about horse racing, usually it's three weekends a year, that will be, we'll just message each other, "Hawse." [laughs] And so- I, I used to get-...
35:36
now I get to do this read and I get to crack myself up. Yeah, I used to get a lot of crap from Matt Brown about, uh, pronouncing the Atlanta Hawks wrong.
35:43
App- apparently, I don't, I don't pronou- pronounce Hawks correctly. Ironic. I love you, Matt. It's like H-O-X.
35:48
This comes from a place of love, Matt, but it's ironic that Matt's making fun of you of how to pronounce things. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. [laughs] Yeah, ask him to pronounce Cincinnati Bengals because- Yeah...
35:56
it's the Bengals every time, the Bengals. And it's okay. I have my idiosyncrasies on the air as well. We were talking about it too off air. I'm, I'm like a duck on the pond.
36:04
You, it seems very calm here on the surface, but if you saw what my feet are doing right now, it's like I'm, it's like I'm Michael Phelps, like swimming the 100 meter freestyle.
36:12
I, I'm gonna guess our s- our s- our smart au- audience members know that there's nothing calm about the two of us when we're together. No.
36:20
Like we, like when we're doing a two-hour show, you guys may hit, hit a commercial break. Jared and I just keep talking. We don't hit a commercial break. We just keep talking for f- two straight hours.
36:28
During the, during this commercial break, we were discussing- The crew probably hates us... Miles Michaelis and where he's from- [laughs]... because we were talking about Florida Atlantic. Yeah.
36:35
Um, because- The college baseball super regionals, I had a chance, very fortunate during my career working for Florida Atlantic, of course, Kelly from that area as well. Like, you went to FAU, right?
36:44
No, no, but covered- But you covered, you covered them in the-... the program for so long, yeah...
36:47
'cause I remember we were talking about this last year during the Final Four run, I was fortunate during my time working at FAU to call an unbelievable baseball season for them.
36:56
They made it to the regional in Gainesville.
36:58
Um, they made it to the championship game at the Sun Belt Conference Tournament and had a walk-off home run by the captain to get to that game, and it was just the, you know, reminiscing off of that stuff early in your career, formative stuff.
37:09
All right, speaking of formative stuff, uh, your fee nerfy pricing, baseball odds, uh, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year awards markets, all of those things very pertinent.
37:16
We will get to all of them over the next hour plus of the show.
37:20
At the top of this hour, we will also pivot to the horse racing, um, as Chris Felica, host of, uh, Bear Bets Podcast and of course, uh, fantastic work for Fox Sports, he will be there up in Saratoga this week covering the Belmont.
37:31
I know that sounds weird. We'll explain it at the top of the hour. But baseball today, so I, I'll give you the one game I was looking at from a nerfy perspective, and I do this all the time.
37:41
I write something up the night before, and I don't send it because I think to myself, "Man, if the market moves against me, or if this guy wakes up with the flu and, and, and I make this bet..."
37:51
For those unaware, first inning bets are action no matter who starts. Pitcher, hitter, no matter what. Obviously, the lineup doesn't matter.
37:59
But a lot of sports books for a full game, for a first five, will void if a starting pitcher gets, gets scratched. Um, you can not bet it that way, where you can bet action- Action, yeah...
38:13
and no matter what, your bet is action, but depending on where you bet and how you bet and what your drop-down menus are and what you toggle, you might get a refund if your starting pitcher wakes up with the flu and doesn't start, whereas in a first inning bet, you're, you're locked in no matter what.
38:27
So I- It's action no matter what... I hesitate sometimes- That's interesting... to pull the trigger the night before. Is it superstition? Is it paranoia? Probably. Um, but I just don't.
38:36
So last night, DraftKings was hanging -110 for the Marlins Guardians nerfy, and I'm looking at the pitching matchup, I'm looking at the first five total, and I'm like, "Yeah, this probably should be -115, -120."
38:49
So I wrote up this huge long write-up on it, and I saved it in my drafts as I do with a lot of stuff on social media, and I wake up this morning, and it was -120.
38:56
So I'm like, "Well, now the price is right, and now I've got to kind of push to get to where I want to go." So long story short, I have not bet it yet. I have not given it out yet. Circus hanging -130.
39:06
I saw some -120 available at South Point. There's other shops that you can probably find a -120 on the Guardians Marlins nerfy. If you need action tonight, I would bet this.
39:17
If I can't find a -110 or a -115, or if the lineup is not missing a key member, I probably won't bet this because I think the price is probably fair.
39:29
But now with that pregame, uh, total sitting there at seven and a half, we're seeing the first five total now trend towards four, almost 3.75 frankly, um, it's less valuable to me. I do like the matchup.
39:41
Weathers has been fantastic to the nerfy. Logan Allen is average, but the Marlins cannot hit lefties- [laughs]... for save their life. They are one of the worst... They, they're the worst hitting team full lineup.
39:54
The top five is not good either. I ran the numbers last night. They're basically, uh, uh, I would call them like a C-minus, D-plus lineup against lefties.
40:04
Um, and I think that's why Logan Allen has some value tonight against the Marlins. But again, price matters in this market. Yeah.
40:10
I'm not running to the window to bet, to lay 20 cents on a nerfy that I priced at around 20 cents. Um, even though after the adjustment with situation and matchups, I probably make it -125, -130.
40:22
Great conversation I thought we had yesterday- Yes... on how you approach the first inning betting that I, I know you tweeted that out last night. Yep. So check that out, um, for more detail.
40:31
I, I've got more questions on it. The, uh, first of all, just with regular baseball bet- are, are there shops that is shop dependent whether it's action or not, right? Are there shops that have that list both?
40:40
Usually there's a toggle. Usually there's a drop-down menu. I know on certain shops you put the baseball bet in your queue- Yeah... and then there's like a toggle sometimes, like action listed pitchers.
40:52
They'll give you the option. You can even do it, some books I've seen you can even do one pitcher definitely starts. So it's like- Oh, okay... maybe like Chris Sale or some guy, you know, uh- Yeah...
41:00
Gerrit Cole or whatever, and you're like, "I want this bet to be action unless this guy is not starting. If the other guy's out, I'm fine with it, but this guy's got to be the starter."
41:09
There's w- there's- And then first inning, first inning's, uh, always action. I have never seen a shop in this town, I can't speak for the other towns- [laughs]... or in faraway lands.
41:20
I have never seen a shop in this town void a nerfy year fee bet on a pitching change. Okay. I always get action no matter what. Which also tells me, like, that it, it, the... just as a bettor, right?
41:32
Doesn't that automatically tip the hand of, "Okay, there's, there's value in this market when they're not willing to do stuff like that," right? They want action on- Yeah... on your bet every single time.
41:42
I think it's a mix of both things. I think the whole action, no action thing, there's a technological element to it that maybe
41:51
it needs to be, like, connected to a certain algorithm in order for you to bet it in that way. Okay, oh, yeah, that's fair. I don't know how the whole back end works.
41:59
That, that's fair because- And it's like n- it's like this bet, no matter what, like, like for example, you make a bet, and then it goes to like the next level of like the, you know, uh, approval process, and then if there's three or four different layers, action, no action, pit- list the pitcher, this pitcher, this pitcher, it has to go to a different- Yeah...
42:15
technology server- Right... compared to this bet that no matter what happens, it's gonna be a, an action bet. I, I do- I don't know how this back end stuff works- I, I do think you are-... with all the technology...
42:24
yeah, I do think you are probably right about some of that only because- Probably, and probably wrong about some of it too...
42:28
where, where I've heard, uh, the explanations in Nevada about why they can't post each way golf betting is, uh, is- Yes... just- Great example...
42:36
yeah, just hurts your brain because the technology just doesn't exist to do it, yes. Great example because there are shops in other places that I love those bets.
42:43
You could bet not only to win the event, but then up to a certain place. Right, correct. Now, you're obviously giving up some of your odds, but you're not giving up as much odds just betting a top five. Yes.
42:52
So it's like a in between. I compare it to the kind of Asian handicap in soccer- Correct, yes, yeah... where you're doing a 3.75 instead of a three and a half.
43:00
You know, if it's four goals, you'll push half your bet and you'll win half your bet. Again, those nuances to certain sports is what makes those sports unique.
43:09
I've heard bettors love the Asian handicap in soccer- So, hey... and I've heard bettors hate it. And I probably don't say this enough about golf- We don't talk a lot about golf enough...
43:16
like, I, I bet golf a l- I bet golf every single week. Yeah. Right? Each way betting, I do not have avail- Long Shots podcast, check it out. Yeah. Thank you.
43:22
Uh, do not have available to me out here, I do not bet each way at all. I would, overwhelming number of bets that I would make, you know, quote-unquote, "in the outright market" would be each way bets- Yep...
43:32
um, if I was l- even we do it, there are some shops on the East Coast that do offer. So if you are a golf bettor out there, I would definitely consider mixing that into your portfolio.
43:40
So the long story short, the actionable part of this segment, the Marlins Guardians nerfy at -120 has, I would call a modicon, an iota of value, just because I think the matchup pushes this thing to maybe -125 or -130.
43:55
I loved the bet last night at -110. I didn't send it out because I was worried that Logan Allen would wake up with the case of the South Beach flu.
44:03
Um, and I didn't want [laughs] I didn't wanna be left out to dry if it was gonna be a weird bullpen game for the Guardians. But that's my superstition. Bet the Marlins nerfy tonight. I think it's gonna hit.
44:13
All right, on the other side, we will talk to Chris Felica. He hopefully has some winners for us on the track tomorrow at Belmont. This is the Numbers Game on VSiN.
44:22
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