Search
Login
Sign Up
Jun 7, 2024
A Numbers Game | June 7, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | June 7, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:33
1×
Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. So, one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Friday morning, downtown Las Vegas, the Numbers Game, powered by our friends over at Zyn Nicotine. I'm Jarrett Smith in for Gil Alexander today. Kelly Bidlin with us as well.
0:17
And joining us now, um, from the very prestigious Homewood Suites up in, uh, Saratoga.
0:21
We were having some hotel analysis before he came on here, but Chris Fallica of Fox Sports, of course, host of the Bear Bets podcast, joining us on the progressive guest line.
0:29
So those, the Homewood Suites, that is the elite level status for you? Top tier hotel power rating right there? Yeah, I, I, I think if you're, if you're looking at like that, that Courtyard by Marriott- [laughs]...
0:42
Courtyard, Homewood Suites, Hampton Inn, Wind- I, I, a- at that level, yeah, the effect that you get the kitchenette, you get the couch and the separate living area.
0:50
Yeah, that, that's, uh, I, I think that would certainly get the, uh, the, the power rating a- at the top of this hotel level. Now, if you wanna go up to the, like the JW Marriott level and- Mm...
1:01
the Westin and the, and, and, and Ritz and then Quattro Seasons, now that's a different story.
1:06
But, uh, for a good just standard, solid, you, you know what you're gonna get and you know you're gonna get a good sleep and you can bring some stuff back to the room and throw it in the fridge, hard, hard to top the Homewood Suites.
1:17
Yeah, this is the high-level analysis you come for here- [laughs]... on a Numbers Game. Hard-hitting stuff.
1:21
I wanted to know what Ch- like, of the years of Chris covering college football games, going all over the country- Oh, yeah... like, you know, which...
1:28
Like, does he have a favorite in like, you know, Stillwater, Oklahoma- Certain town... or something like that? You stumped him. [laughs] No. No, there, there, there, there's n- there's nothing favorite about Stillwater.
1:38
[laughs] Actually, I take that back. The, the, we, we actually, one year we were fortunate enough where we got to stay at the Golf Lodge on Oklahoma State's golf course. Oh. The Golf Lodge and everything. That's fancy.
1:48
That place was awesome. See? This is what I'm looking for. Un- unbelievable. There you go. Insider stuff. All right. We could do an hour on it. We really could, yeah. We probably could do an hour on college towns.
1:56
I know in state college, if you w- if you wanna go to the Nittany Lion Inn, to me, that is like the, you know, that's the top tier, crème de la crème. But again, we'll digress. We'll get some thoughts- [laughs]...
2:04
on college football, uh, coming up at the end here. But we definitely wanna get into Belmont. It's a unique year.
2:10
Um, it could be unique, uh, for multiple years because you, you move the location to Saratoga, shorter track. It changes everything, right?
2:17
You go from a mile and a half, right, to now a mile and a quar- it just, it changes the entire tenor of the race. Um, Sierra Leone's the favorite. You'll have Mystic Dan in there. Uh, handicap the field for me.
2:26
Is there any value here as we get close to the race tomorrow? I really have a hard time seeing someone other than Sierra Leone or Mind Frame win the race. Uh, we just don't know how good Mind Frame is.
2:39
He's only raced twice. He's had two open length wins. But at the same time,
2:44
going from a maiden special at Gulf Stream and an optional allowance at, at Churchill on Derby day into facing Sierra Leone, the Derby winning Preakness winner, that's a, that's a bit of a step up in class.
2:54
We just don't know how good he is or isn't right now. I think he's the only horse that pr- uh, that possesses the upside to beat Sierra Leone. I mean, we, we've heard it with Sierra Leone.
3:05
Like, I thought he was the best three-year-old, uh, going into the Derby. He had a brutal trip.
3:10
He probably would've won the race if he didn't lug in, or maybe if Tyler Gaflione had the stick in a different hand or the, they would've made the change to the bit, a different bit like they did for, uh, for this race.
3:20
But I, I think if you add up, uh, Sierra Leone getting a shorter field, which will be less distance, uh, le- less traffic, like he's gonna get an honest pace in the race with, with Dorneck and a couple of others.
3:31
Um, you get the home field advantage now with Chad Brown in his own backyard. You got the equipment change, you got the rider change. It, it's basically put up or shut up here.
3:39
I, I think if he doesn't win Saturday, I would be, I would be p- pretty, pretty surprised.
3:44
If you were looking for, uh, maybe a, a price horse to put underneath, uh, i- in your exacta to maybe hit the board, I would take a look at the number two horse, Resilience, at, uh, at 10 to one in the morning line.
3:55
Uh, Belmont wasn't necessarily planning on running him in the race. He wasn't sure about the mile and a quarter.
4:01
Uh, but at the same time, he was right there in the Derby after b- breaking from post sev- uh, 18, I think it was, and, uh, he just flattened out in the stretch because he had a wide trip.
4:10
The horse has kind of grown up and matured since adding blinkers right before the Wood. He won that race, ran really well in the Derby. Uh, he might be a little bit more forwardly placed in this race as well.
4:19
So if you're looking... Basically, in order to make money in the race, you're gonna need to break up Mind Frame and Sierra Leone.
4:26
If it r- if it runs 9-10 or 10-9, unless that's the only bet you're making in the race and you're just gonna hammer a cold exacta at 9-10, 10-9, um, it's gonna be hard to make money, unless you can get Resilience or another horse in there to kind of separate the nine from the 10 in the, uh, in the trifecta or in the exacta.
4:45
Chris Fallica, Fox Sports host of the Bear Bets podcast. In fact, I'm on his page right now on foxsports.com checking out his picks for the Belmont Stakes, which will be taking place at Saratoga this year.
4:54
He listed out the exacta that he just mentioned on the air. Um, great stuff, of course.
4:58
For a lot of the novice horse bettors like myself, I bet on usually three races a year, um, it, it's a different, it's a different sport to bet on than, uh- Yeah...
5:07
just, you know, picking a winner, uh, you know, in the Celtics Mavericks game last night. So you did a great job laying it out, and of course, understanding what you're betting is usually half the battle. Um, all right.
5:17
Right. Speaking of the battle, um, we got news yesterday, I think it was either yesterday or, or, or, uh, earlier this week, about the college football playoff schedule.
5:25
And I'll be honest, Chris, to me, any argument against expansion died the moment that schedule came out.
5:32
[laughs] Because my, my counter every single time someone tries to argue against expansion, "Did you look at this schedule?" Eight games, it's like March Madness for football.
5:43
Eight games in that 10-day stretch Christmas week, and then of course the semifinals and the championship, which is the more traditional that we've experienced over the last few years.
5:51
But this schedule, i- i- pun intended, is an absolute bear. [laughs] Yeah, yeah, there are two... You can have, like, two separate thoughts and hold, hold them concurrently in your head at the same time.
6:03
You can say- That expanding the playoff hurts the regular season. You can say expanding the, the, the playoff really doesn't increase the number of teams that legitimately can win the national title.
6:15
But at the same time, uh, y- you can't sit here and argue that more football is bad. Yep. More, more marquee games i- in a playoff-type setting. I'm gonna watch, you're gonna watch, Kelly's gonna watch.
6:27
We're all gonna bet them, but we're all gonna be fully, uh, i- invested in them.
6:31
So yeah, I, I, I think i- in getting, getting weeks of football in between, uh, like, the Army-Navy game and once you get the conference championship game, getting those through Christmas and New Year's, and then finally you get the break right before the, the title game on, I think, on the 20th it is.
6:46
Yeah, i- it's, it's... I, I, I'm looking forward to it.
6:48
But like I said, does it mean that more th- uh, more teams other than, say, Georgia, Ohio State, and then maybe Texas or Oregon can ultimately win the national title? Probably not.
7:02
But at the same time, getting, getting maybe a, an LSU in a playoff or a Michigan in the playoff or an Ole Miss in the playoff or, uh- Penn State [laughs]... someone else.
7:12
Penn, Penn, Penn State can- As an alum, I'm praying that we get in one of these years, Chris. [laughs] Dude, what, what's, what's going on?
7:18
Like, I couldn't believe when I was looking at the preseason Heisman odds and, like, odds at, at, to be picking the, at, number one pick in the draft next year. What are people, like, seeing with Drew Allen that I'm not?
7:30
No idea. I don't think we're see- I, I think what they're seeing is the program that he plays for is gonna have a lot of high-profile games. When, now, again, I'm, I'm not, like, the quarterback guru.
7:40
Um, but I- when I watched him play last year, I saw someone who was a little bit timid in the moment, and they didn't ask him- Yeah... to do a whole lot. And that's not gonna fly in the Big Ten. No.
7:50
That's certainly not gonna fly in the Big Ten now that you got, you know, offensive teams like USC and all these great, uh, you know, uh, spread-it-out type teams like Oregon coming in.
7:58
But it, it, it'll be an interesting dynamic. I, I think you made a great point, too, because
8:03
when you don't have the win equity maybe of a team in that lesser tier that can win the championship, but we see a lot of this in college basketball. FAU is a great example. San Diego State's a great example last year.
8:14
The run themselves to get into the Final Four and the championship game, to me- Mm-hmm...
8:20
is kind of the, the pureness of college sports, and I think that's what makes this tournament and this format a little bit more unique compared to what we've seen in prior iterations. Yeah.
8:31
I, I, I, I would agree with that. And who... Maybe, maybe, maybe you get one of the, uh, a, a Boise, whoever your, your non-Power, Power Four, I guess we should say now, uh, conference team that gets in there.
8:41
I mean, maybe they do wind up pulling an upset as well. And, and who knows? If the Big 12 is such a balanced conference, uh, who- whoever gets in there, may- maybe they win a game and create a little excitement.
8:51
Say, it's... Look, I, I am, I, I liked it at four. I thought it should be hard to get in, but like, I'm not gonna sit here and complain- [laughs]... about having more football. Yeah, I, I think more football, right?
9:01
What's, it's, what's good for the goose is good for the gander. I think more football, good for all of us, and that is gonna be that 10-day stretch right there between, uh, the 20th and, and, and New Year's.
9:10
I mean, it always is good with the bowl games, but now you get that initial kick with those, uh, you know, those first round games right out of the gate, makes that bowl season just that much more intense.
9:20
All right, uh, Bear, before we let you go, a big month, couple months coming up for footy. We got the Euro, we got Copa. I, I'll give you the floor here, because I, I'm like a- [laughs]... you know, a duck in the water.
9:30
I have no idea. I'm just trying to search for some nibbles here, um, with the soccer. But what are you looking for with the, uh, international competitions coming up this summer? Yeah. Yeah.
9:38
We, we, we got Euros starting a w- a week from today, and then we got Copa starting on the 20th.
9:44
And it, I, I, I was, I made some bets this week where, uh, the first bet I made was, uh, the Netherlands, they're make, to make the quarterfinal at around plus 135 is what I found them at. Uh, if you look at their...
9:56
Where they're probably gonna finish second in their group behind France, and that's gonna get them a, a pretty favorable draw o- once you look at the, the knockout round.
10:05
They're gonna get, like, a, like, like, like, a se- a second type, place-type team in the round of 16. And then the quarterfinal is probably ultimately where they'll get knocked out.
10:15
But, but the Netherlands to reach the, uh, the quarterfinal plus 135 was something I looked at. And, and then I pl- and then I played England at plus 170 to reach the final and France at plus 190 to reach the final.
10:29
They're probably go- both going to win their groups, which means that is the most likely semifinal matchup o- on the bottom half of the draw.
10:37
The, something would have to go very wrong for France or England not to reach the final. So again, you're getting plus money on both.
10:45
As long as one of them do make the final, uh, you, you're in, you're in a good spot there. So, uh, you can get a nice little, uh, little scalp, little arm there potentially.
10:53
And then, then in Copa, I played Argentina to win at plus 175. Uh, they're gonna be on the easier side of the draw and likely avoid, uh, Brazil and Uruguay until the final. Uh, they're the best team.
11:06
Uh, they're deep up front, even b- beyond Messi.
11:09
Uh, I think Argentina should be in the final, and then you're gonna be in a position, depending on who they play, either just let it ride or take the underdog for a little bit to guarantee yourself a profit. Great stuff.
11:18
Chris Fallica, Fox Sports, host of the Bear Bets podcast. Enjoy Saratoga, enjoy your Homewood Suites, and enjoy that kitchenette, pal. I will.
11:25
The rain, rain looks like it's holding off tomorrow, so it's gonna be a great weekend. Love it. Great stuff. Could not ask for a better segment covering multiple sports, um, with our pal Chris "The Bear" Fallica.
11:35
All right, on the other side, we will wrap up a little college football talk, and we'll get into some baseball awards markets to wrap up this Friday show. Down the stretch they come here on the Numbers Game.
11:44
This is VSiN. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
Well, from grown-worthy dad jokes to patching up skinned knees, your dad is one of a kind. This Father's Day, give him a gift that's guaranteed to take him to his happy place, Omaha Steaks, packages start at 99 bucks.
12:11
Go to omahasteaks.com, use the promo code VSiN checkout to get $10 off your order. Show your dad the love he deserves with a gift as unforgettable as he is. Visit omahasteaks.com, use the promo code VSiN.
12:23
I gave our pal Stormy Bonatony some, uh, uh, you know, a little shade yesterday of her dad jokes. My dad- I'm still laughing about it... my dad jokes are even worse. I'm Mr. Corny.
12:32
You've heard- I mean, if you've, you've ha- been with me for two days now, you probably already know, but that's pretty much my entire life in my head. Well [laughs] what- I, I'm terrible with dad jokes... what was it?
12:39
You like, would you like the ba- milk in a bag? Would you like the milk in a bag? No, I would prefer it in, in the carton please. And, uh- I laughed too hard at that yesterday...
12:45
but like, that's the thing, and that's why I love Stormy, that's why I love everyone who works in this space that understands that we're all corny, but most of us are just afraid to show it- Yeah, yeah... because we're
12:56
a f- we're, we're, we're not comfortable and confident enough with ourselves to be ourselves. Stormy's not one of those people. I'm not one of those people. Kelly, Dustin, like again, the people that,
13:07
the big personalities that you see on this network, the reason that they are personalities, [laughs] think of the word that I just used, personality. Unfortunately, most people are corny.
13:18
Not everyone can be as funny as, like, Chris Rock or have the timing- Correct [laughs]... of Kevin Hart. Most of us are awkward individuals. It's ti- we just have to lean into it.
13:25
Um, not awkward during that segment, fantastic stuff from our pal Chris "The Bear" Fallica. Again, we were talking, uh, off air, I didn't wanna bring this up on the air 'cause I'm not trying to be like Mr.
13:34
Fan Boy, but I grew up, not really grew up, but more late 20s, you know, when I really started to get into the gambling thing for real,
13:42
they were one of the first podcasts, him and, and Stanford C., that I really listened to.
13:45
Our friends o- that actually work for us now, the Sports Gambling Podcast, another one that I, uh, caught on to later on in life, Todd Furman and, and Payne on Bet the Board. Um, they...
13:53
again, these are like formative gambling podcasts that helped me- Mm-hmm... formulate my personality, my gambling thoughts, the way that I view the markets, the way that I handicap the process.
14:05
You pull all of these different things and strands from other smart people that you respect and look up to, and then you eventually formulate your own personality.
14:13
On the air you find your voice, you find your, your, your brand. Um, but that was a thrill for me because I'd never talked to... like that was the first time we ever had talked before. Yeah, yeah.
14:21
No, I, I, I- You booked two great guests... and Chris is- Stormy yesterday and Chris today, two on-air debuts for me, bucket list checks... eh, good. Well, I'm gla- I'm glad we got that done for you.
14:28
But you know, Chris is awesome. I mean, it was all, it was all for me [laughs]. And he's, he's nice enough to do this almost- He's the best... every single week with us.
14:34
And yeah, I mean, d- for yes, from our work, work life perspective- You're, we're in the same age groups... like, yeah. I'm sure you are the same way.
14:40
I mean, that, that sort of way and what those guys did with their careers, right? I mean, it's... when you're talking about Chris Fallica- Paved the way for us...
14:45
Chris Fallica and Stanford C., like what those guys did both behind the scenes and on the air is a lot of- They made gambling cool for the mainstream. Yeah.
14:53
Well, like, I'm even just talking back in just regular sports days, right? Oh, yeah. Like, of just- Just their o- just their regular job... yeah, just their regular jobs. Like, it, it's very...
15:01
I'm, I'm m- uh, mirroring that path quite a lot- Yep... with my own career. So those are b- guys that I have always looked up to. For sure.
15:08
Yeah, I think this industry has a funny way of being very negative towards people that are up and coming. I mean, look what's happening [laughs] to Kaitlin Clark right now.
15:18
Um, it, it's hard when you're trying, you know- Thanks, Jared. I, uh, me and Kaitlin Clark, I- Exactly the same... we, we get compared all the time. Well, it- It's, it's very s- we're very similar people... you would...
15:29
y- y- it's a joke. He's joking, but he's more comparable than you think because... and I'm not saying that the athletic prowess is the same, but when it c- [laughs] Neither with me either, frankly. But when it comes to
15:45
you're having success in your industry and you are trying to climb the ladder, there are always people ahead of you. How those people treat you- Yes... is a very clear indicator of their class, their
16:02
personality, whatever words you wanna use to describe- What type of people they are... exactly. Yes, yes. Yeah, is what they are at their core.
16:08
Chris Fallica is a guy that does not [laughs] have to come on this show every week and do this, but he does because he respects you, he respects Gil, he enjoys doing it, he loves what he does. Yeah.
16:16
And he helps you because you get to talk to him, you get to pick his brain. Yep. He, he gets to be a- 100%... a bit of a mentor to you, even though in his mind he's just doing a guest segment.
16:24
But it means more to us than it does to him, and when you... the way you treat people lower than you on the food chain is, to me, how you measure someone as a human being. I completely agree. I completely agree.
16:35
And- I was, I was lucky to have a lot of great mentors coming up my, uh, uh- Same... working-wise, and it's, if you don't...
16:41
I, for myself, it's, it's, it's, you know, spitting on what they've d- given me if I don't, if you don't pass it down, right? So that's what we try to do. Yeah.
16:50
And on the flip side, I've had a lot of people on higher on the food chain basically try to stamp, stamp me down- Right [laughs] me too [laughs]... to make sure I don't get up to where them. It goes both ways.
16:58
Again, everything, everyone in life is a lesson.
17:01
Uh, speaking of lessons, let's, uh, piggyback a little bit off of what Chris just said 'cause he, he, he used a couple buzzwords for me during the college football portion of, of, of our discussion.
17:10
I'm not gonna, [laughs] I'm not gonna analyze his soccer stuff. Go bet whatever he said. Netherlands to make the quarterfinal sounds great in the Euro. I have no idea what I'm talking about soccer. I'm excited.
17:18
We'll ha- we'll have Paul Carr on next week. We'll get, we'll get- Yeah, you guys could get some Paul Carr thoughts... yeah, much deeper into that. But I w- I'll be honest, the...
17:23
I can handle, I can handle World Cup, Champions League, Premier League just fine. Euro's pretty cool, too. The, the... when this, w- well, it's really cool- I got smoked in the Euro in 2020-...
17:33
but I get tripped up on dates... but it's really fun. I get tripped up on dates, right? Oh, it's always happened. It's the most stuff that happens.
17:36
So last week was the first time I literally had to text Paul and I'm like, "Hey, just, uh, let me know when the next time you need to come on," [laughs] 'cause I'm really messed up with this calendar.
17:44
Soccer calendar is like, it doesn't end. It doesn't end. It's almost like the football news cycle. It's just 24/7, 365.
17:50
But besides the horse racing insight, which again, was fantastic, you can go to Chris's site, foxsports.com. He has an entire article posted with his picks. Uh, Mike Somich has his picks for Belmont.
17:59
I saw Adam Burke with a great story as well on vsin.com talking about the Acorn Stakes, which are happening in a few hours. Um, there's some, maybe some value there as well. So lots of horse racing stuff.
18:08
But the college football portion of our discussion I thought was intriguing because he mentioned a few teams, Ole Miss, Oregon, teams that are kind of, I would say, on the cusp, right?
18:20
And I know Oregon will might take a step back 'cause you lose Bo Nix. You'll get Jaxson Dart back for Ole Miss. But, you know, Oregon gets Dillon Gabriel in, in, in Bo Nix's stead.
18:28
And w- I, I think that's, you know, I don't wanna say apples to apples, but I'd say that's a pretty even comparison. I would say Oregon won't drop off too much with Dillon Gabriel if he stays healthy.
18:38
That has been the problem with Gabriel over the years. But my point being- The college football futures market is changing now.
18:45
Before, you really only had a stone's throw that the top maybe five, six, seven, eight teams were even gonna make the playoff. Now, the field expands. And I think we use the word win equity a lot.
18:58
Maybe the win equity of Oregon or Ole Miss or LSU, one of these teams that is not the top, isn't as high as an Alabama or a Georgia or Ohio State, Texas, et cetera.
19:10
But if you're in the dance, you're on the dance floor, you're on the bus, as Herm Edwards say, "We're on the bus," it opens up opportunities. And now you get 16 teams, which means more teams make the field.
19:22
So while the college football futures market to me, you're trying to find the needle in a haystack TCU 100 to 1 that makes the playoff, very hard to do.
19:29
Now I think there's more opportunity, I'll call it fertile landscape, for a team like a Notre Dame or a Michigan or Florida State down there at the bottom of the board- Mm-hmm...
19:37
25 to 1, just to be in the field, and that allows flexibility later on in the quarterfinal, semifinal rounds if they're able to make it that far. Yeah. Man, I, I hope you're right. Me too. But we'll see. But we'll see.
19:50
Because I, I like that, I, I mean, you're a much bigger college b- uh, football guy than I am, and the...
19:55
I just keep going back to, like, am I gonna watch, like, get excited for an LSU, Alabama game on October 27th or whatever, and it just feels like after I watch a great game, feels like it's not gonna really matter in the long run 'cause both these teams are gonna be there.
20:09
But, you know, at the same [laughs] uh, you know, the other side of that coin, Jarred, it's, it's, well, I don't watch that much college football on Saturdays, so when we hit the holidays like you're talking about- Yeah...
20:19
you get this amazing stretch where you can lock in and... I don't know, I just, I, I, I hate it when people, when people bring up from an NBA perspective where they're like, "Oh, the regular season doesn't matter.
20:30
Like, the playoffs are here," right? And it's like, is that what college football's about to turn into? I don't- Hmm... I don't know if that's good or bad for the sport. I really don't. I don't think it's to that extent.
20:40
Okay. Because there's still only 12 games, whereas the NBA there's 82. So each game does have more of a sense of urgency. I agree,
20:47
if Alabama plays LSU in, let's say, mid, late October, both teams are 7, 8 and 0, you're right, the loser of that game probably still gets into the playoff, but the loser of that game might also be the 15 seed. Mm. Yeah.
20:58
And have to face the toughest opponent in the first round and not get the advantage of an early draw, and I think there's home sites as well. Don't you think those teams wanna play for the home, right? Yeah, absolutely.
21:07
So I think there's, like, like, there's, there's nuance there. I don't think it's as cut and dry as, well, now teams aren't gonna care in the regular season.
21:16
Maybe there's a li- maybe you care a little bit less at the end of a game that you're losing and you don't go all out for. But I still think Alabama and LSU t- [laughs] you're still gonna care. Yeah.
21:26
Like, y- you know, it, it- I think the other- 7 and 0 Alabama, 7 and 0 LSU on Halloween night, I think that game still matters. Yeah. Yeah, yeah.
21:35
The, I think the other thing that Chris brought up that just, it, it's tr- it's funny how many new formats we've seen with sports over the recent years, it feels like.
21:43
The one thing that holds true for ev- for everybody, every g- bettor out there, which is our entire, entire audience, what Chris said there, uh, when we talked to him, more games is always better.
21:55
[laughs] That's why the argument- Is always better... against expansion doesn't- Right. [laughs] Like, if it's almost like a scale, right, and you're weighing, okay, expansion, the bad, right?
22:04
So you're doing a pros and cons list. Mm-hmm. The pros for ex- or the cons for expansion is obviously a diluted field, regular season means less. Right. The pro for expansion, did you see the schedule?
22:14
To me, that's weighted higher. Yeah, yeah. A, a, bigger pr- you know, spotlight games, right? More spotlight games. Yeah. So a- and it's, you know, for, I, I just think back to the NBA. In-season tournament, play-in.
22:26
In-season tournament was a great example. I, I- I thought it was fantastic... I don't hear anybody complaining about those anymore- Not anymore... when they were complaining about the beginning of it.
22:31
They complain at the beginning because people don't like change. I was one of these people that I hated change, and then the change would happen, I'd be like, "Oh, that's not so bad." Right. Embrace change, people.
22:39
That's the only way you grow, is if you leave your comfort zone. We will leave our comfort zone in the baseball futures market next. Numbers Game. VSiN. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:55
Act now, save big. Limited time annual subscription, VSiN Pro. It's an unbeatable price. Normally 240 a year, you can now subscribe for just $199. We'll throw in an extra month free.
23:06
13 months of VSiN Pro access, less than 50 cents a day. With VSiN Pro, you'll gain instant access to our daily best bets, real-time betting splits, exclusive systems, premium analysis, and 24/7 video content.
23:18
Don't miss this incredible offer. VSiN.com/subscribe right now. Use the promo code ANG, claim your discount and bonus month. That's a special deal which will not last long. VSiN.com/subscribe today.
23:29
Use the promo code A-N-G, which stands for A Numbers Game. Gil Alexander off until Monday. I am Jarred Smith, uh, steering the ship with my trusty co-pilot here, Kelly Bidlin, doing his usual, uh, producing routine.
23:43
A fantastic show for us so far. Um, really enjoyed talking to Chris Fallica, of course.
23:48
That was a thrill for me personally, but professionally he gave some incredible advice about the Belmont Stakes taking place at Saratoga, um, this weekend.
23:56
Also, some Euro and some Copa, uh, soccer, uh, advice, and we had a brief discussion about the college football playoff, if you wanna go back and relive that segment.
24:05
I believe there's a podcast that'll come up at some point today, right? Yep. Yep. Check out the podcast. I'm sure we'll tweet it out. I'll have some video and all that fun stuff, um, for it as well.
24:14
And then of course, uh, Lu- uh, Finocchiaro, um, uh, we had him in our first hour talking NHL, Stanley Cup final, which starts tomorrow. Very busy weekend for Lu.
24:23
Uh, sports gauntlet, college baseball, UFC, all of that stuff of course will be on the podcast which will be up, uh, shortly after the show concludes. But let's pivot to baseball.
24:32
We again, we gave you a little baseball a little earlier in the show. I'm kinda lukewarm on the Marlins, uh, Guardians moneyline tonight, although the price move overnight is making that bet less valuable.
24:43
If you can find minus 120, which is currently available at DraftKings, I think it is a, I'll call it a fair wager to make if you want some baseball action tonight.
24:50
But we had action last night, and I'll be honest, sometimes I feel like I can speak things-... into existence.
24:57
I have so much power on this microphone that we can do a segment on the American League MVP straw poll- [laughs]...
25:04
and talk about how great Juan Soto looks, and the difficulty in choosing between the two star Yankees, Soto and Judge, and the only thing that could derail one of them from having an MVP season is an injury.
25:18
And guess who left the game with a, I believe, a forearm injury of some kind last night? We'll call it an upper body injury, for the hockey fans out there. Yeah. I don't know, have we, have you seen any more details?
25:28
No, I have not. 'Cause one thing that w- I, I kind of had that game on TV number two last night, and one thing that- Let's check if anything happened last night...
25:34
one thing that was very apparent was that there was a weather delay. There was a weather delay. And, and I was kind of- And then Juan Soto didn't return after the weather delay.
25:40
Okay, so that, that's why I was wondering when the timing of it occurred, because that's, uh, like, mayb- maybe, uh, maybe it's not as bad.
25:47
Maybe, uh, you know, maybe it just kind of cramped up and, uh, felt tight during the delay, and he didn't want to go back out there. That is the best case scenario. Best case scenario.
25:56
Odd shift right now, 'cause we did talk about this yesterday. There was an odd shift. If Aaron Judge down to plus 180 wants Soto out to plus 235, so what that moved, like, 20 cents, 15 cents, something like that? Yeah.
26:07
And, and I think the uncertainty there, I would say that move is half-baked. If we get news today that Soto going to the IL, that number drops more.
26:17
Um, how I would react to this from a betting standpoint is do nothing, because you are not the Yankees orthopedic surgeon or whoever is, you know, looking at the Yankees, you know, looking at Soto today from a, a medical standpoint.
26:30
Um, when we are betting the awards markets, that factor...
26:34
frankly, when you're betting anything, even if it's a one game roll of the dice, one inning roll of the dice, that happened with Kenta Maeda the other day, two pitches into the game he left, and all of a sudden the Yearfy got thrown into a loop.
26:43
But injuries is the one thing you cannot predict. Mm-hmm. So I don't waste my head space trying to predict them. Now, you can say that certain guys are injury prone. That's not Juan Soto.
26:55
He's played every game this year. So it's, it's one of those things where if it happens, you bet Soto. Like, I bet Tucker last week, he got hurt. What am I gonna do? Like- Yeah.
27:05
Obviously i- if I knew that he was going to ha- you know, foul a ball off his shin and miss two games- Right, right, yeah... I wouldn't have bet him the week before.
27:11
I would have waited until after, but you cannot predict injuries.
27:14
Now, okay, question on that, 'cause I thought this was an interesting discussion we had probably three weeks ago, a month ago on the show, and it was completely agree with you, m- especially when we talk MVP.
27:23
Do you feel any different about Cy Young, just because of, just because of how many injuries we've seen to st- we saw to star pitchers at the beginning of the year?
27:32
The conversation we were having was, is, i- is it now we've hit the day and age with these injuries with these pitchers in th- in, in their arms, that you should be maybe waiting a little bit before you jump into this mar- uh, into this market betting-wise?
27:46
Well, it's impossible to time the injuries, unfortunately. Right. I agree with your sentiment that there are more pitcher injuries than to hitter injuries. That's just natural these days. Mm-hmm.
27:57
Um, and I think the other part of that is teams are more careful with pitchers. So Jones- Yeah, you're not gonna rush them back, yeah... Jones and Skeens are perfect examples.
28:07
You're getting great value on Skeens to win Rookie of the Year. The Pirates in mid-August could say, "Screw this, we're 20 games out. What, why, why are we extending this kid and making him throw over 100 innings?
28:17
We need him to throw 150 next year when we're in the race." And the Pirates have been more conservative with how they handle pitchers than other teams. Look at how they handle Gerrit Cole.
28:25
But I think to your original point, no, I am not changing my strategy on betting the futures market based off injuries. Okay. Here's what I am doing. I'm betting less. Gotcha.
28:38
I'm not going to not bet on someone because he might get hurt. I'm just gonna avoid those markets completely, where I would prefer
28:48
in the futures markets to swim in more team waters, but sometimes bets just smack you right in the face. Mm-hmm. I think the Jose Ramirez bet that Dustin Sweeterson was hot on a couple weeks ago- Yep...
29:00
is gonna be a fantastic wager at the end of the day. Is it gonna win? Eh, maybe. But it ain't gonna close 25 to 1 in September if the Guardians win the division and he's leading the league in RBIs.
29:15
It's probably gonna be a, closer to a coin flip with whichever one of these Yankees- Mm-hmm... ends up at the end of the rainbow here. Now again, Jose Ramirez could get hurt. Can't predict that.
29:26
I can't look you straight in the eyes and say, "Don't bet on this player because he's gonna get hurt." I, I, that would be disingenuous of me to say. I think this futures market in baseball this year is very intriguing.
29:41
I think we have more information from the voters than we've ever had. We are now getting monthly updates from pollsters, and the polls could be unreliable, just like in politics, but at least you have... I always use the
29:58
lighthouse analogy. It's dark, you're, you know, a, a captain of a ship, and you're trying to find land. If the lighthouse turns on, you're not there yet, but at least you know what direction to go in.
30:10
And that's where I think we are now in the baseball futures market.
30:14
Based off of the two polls that we have, the data that we have, knowing what we know about the numbers and the analytics, I know what direction to look in. Am I firing on every player that's in that direction? No.
30:27
But I know that in the MVP in the American League, Kyle Tucker's getting a lot of votes, more votes than he got last time. The injury doesn't help, but that's a direction that we should be looking in.
30:38
I bet in the next straw poll in June, I bet Jose Ramirez has more votes than he had, which was zero in the last one. Right.
30:44
Now, if that's true, and we do get a straw poll with big Jose Ramirez, you know, e- exposure i- in early mid-June, I'm gonna be betting more Ramirez.
30:54
Probably at 20, 15 to 1, and just kind of play that number down as it keeps going down. The Cy Young, I, in the American League side- Scubal's the guy. Do you want to bet that now plus 150? No, but he's the guy. Okay.
31:06
Barring injury, he's going to win this award, I think. Barring some kind of setback where he just completely falls off the map. Burns' numbers to start the year were not as good.
31:16
Baltimore's not going to win the division. Tanner Houck could... He almost pitched a no-hitter last night, but he, he, he's not at that level. Actually, Logan Gilbert's a guy at 25 to 1.
31:27
If Seattle wins that division, I think I would look at, because that's a guy that has that A plus stuff, but he also is going to split votes with Castillo, who is the more noteworthy pitcher in that rotation.
31:37
That rotation's unbelievable, by the way. Bryan Wu, who you've probably never heard of, pitched yesterday. I mean, Seattle's got three aces right there with Castillo, Gilbert, and Wu.
31:46
The other guys on that list, I would call them middling, and, and I'm not... It's not a knock on Cole Ragans or Seth Lugo, but- Oh, yeah... they play, they play for the Royals.
31:53
Like, you're not going to get a lot of attention if you're not doing what Tarik Skubal is doing, which is just blowing the world up in his pitching numbers.
32:02
Like, th- Skubal's numbers are off the charts right now compared to every other guy on that list. I think- To your point real quick, I was- Yeah, go ahead...
32:08
I was just g- I was just gonna say, too, like, you look at the, you look at the names on this graphic, uh, two- Not a lot of world beaters on this list...
32:15
w- were you like, two, two years ago, uh, uh, could you even get odds on some of these guys? You know what I mean? [laughs] Where were they at? I mean, Corbin Burns, obviously- Corbin Burns was a different league...
32:23
that's a recognizable name, but some of the different- But he was in a different league. He was in the National League... right, he was in a different league. Some of these other guys, you, you don't even know.
32:29
Corbin Burns would be interesting because I don't remember the last time a, both leagues have won the Cy Young. I want to say, I want to say it happened. I want to say Fred Lynn. I could be wrong, though.
32:41
He could be a hitter. Efforting? Yeah. The... I'm actually curious. Won the Cy Young in both... It's definitely happened. You know who else might have done it? Hold on a minute. Hold on a minute.
32:52
Uh, the one guy I was actually thinking of, uh, is- Fred Lynn's a hitter. I was way off with that... Roger Clemens. That's right. With the Astros, right? Yeah. And then with the Blue Jays, or with the Red Sox,
33:03
and that was when the Astros were in the National League, I think. Oh, I think there... I, I think, actually think there's a lot of answers to this. Hold on. Now I'm curious.
33:11
I'll have to get, I'll have to get back to you on this one. This is an int- that's an interesting one. There are multiple answers.
33:14
I don't think Corbin Burns is gonna win the Cy Young this year, but he would l- join a list of very prestigious pitchers that have won it in both leagues. I think on the American side it's Scubal.
33:23
National League side is interesting. We'll come back, talk about the National League Cy Young and Rookie of the Year on the other side. We'll wrap up Numbers Game here on VSiN.
33:30
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:54
We are so close to crowning an NBA champion, and with the action heating up on the court, it's even hotter at DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NBA.
34:03
Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app now. Use the code VSiN, that's code VSiN for new customers. Get $150 in bonus bets when you bet just five bucks. Only on DraftKings. The crown is yours.
34:15
All right, final segment here on a Friday. It has been a fun Numbers Game, uh, journey with you. Myself, Jarred Smith, in for Gil Alexander today. Kelly Bidlin with us, of course, as well, live in downtown Las Vegas.
34:26
Let's wrap up the show with a little more baseball futures talk because I want to, um, move the conversation to the National League, the senior circuit.
34:35
Um, but before we do, we got some answers to our trivia, uh, extravaganza during the break.
34:40
The reason why Fred Lynn was hot on my mind is because Shōta Imanaga, who we'll talk about in a moment, in the National League, is doing something that, uh, not a lot of people have ever done, which is perhaps win the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year in the same year.
34:54
Fernando Valenzuela, uh, one of, I think, the only ones to ever do it. There might have been one other player that have, that has done that, but Fred- Come on, Jarred. I know, I know. We just had a break, man.
35:02
[laughs] I know, but Fred Lynn... All right, we'll forget I even said that. But Fred Lynn is on my mind because he is the only person to win Rookie of the Year and MVP in the same year. He's not a pitcher.
35:15
I'm sorry for even mentioning him in that same breath as Cy Young. Oh, man. But that is why Fred Lynn was, uh, top of mind. But speaking of- Valenzuela the only one.
35:25
Valenzuela, the only player to ever win Rookie and Cy in the same year, and it's ironic that it's the National League with the Dodgers.
35:32
It's ironic that we get a National League pitcher trying to do it again with Shōta Imanaga, but I'll be honest, if you've watched Imanaga the last two starts, I think underwhelming is the word I would use.
35:44
Now, it hasn't impacted the market a whole lot just yet. Wheeler was the favorite to win Cy Young. He's still the favorite.
35:52
Imanaga's still the second favorite, despite the fact that Imanaga's had two, I'll call them, clunkers.
35:57
The Rookie of the Year is still Imanaga as I would call it a pretty substantial favorite, but the gap is shortening with Skeans now in the rear view mirror. He was a $4 underdog before his last start against the Dodgers.
36:11
Now Skean's a $2 underdog, but I would still say Imanaga the favorite at plus 115, saying it's about a 45% chance, uh, he's gonna win the award, where Skeans is more in the 30, 35% range.
36:23
I, I, I do think the name that I would really look to is a guy who pitches tonight in the Bronx, and that's Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Two reasons why I think this guy's a good bet. So I bet him plus 650 earlier this week.
36:37
I bet him before the Skeans start, hoping the Dodgers would get to Skeans. I wasn't really right on that prediction, and the odds shortened on Skeans. The Imanaga fade, to me, is becoming more pronounced by the day,
36:52
and it doesn't mean that this guy is gonna suck down the stretch. But for him to pitch to a sub two ERA for the entire season is bonkers. It is... He doesn't have that kind of stuff.
37:03
He has, I would call it Average stuff with elite location, and he has an elite brain when it comes to pitching. He's not a thrower, he's a pitcher. But he's now made, what, 12, 13 starts. The book is out.
37:19
This is a guy that I think doesn't have the kind of stuff that Yamamoto has, which is just a little bit more, I'll say, variety when he's pitching. His fastball is harder. He'll throw 96.
37:36
Imanaga's more in the 92, 93 range. Obviously, Paul Skenes is [laughs] is like Superman.
37:41
But the reasons against Imanaga and the reasons against Skenes, I think are pronounced enough for me to view the three pitchers at the top of that list as a little more equal than what the odds are saying.
37:58
I think Imanaga has pitched over his skis the first month. He's come back to earth the last couple of weeks. Paul Skenes is like a shooting star.
38:09
He's gonna burn hot, he's gonna burn fast, but I don't think he's gonna burn for the duration. Whereas Yamamoto, he went to the, the first game of the year, uh, he struggled in that game.
38:20
He's come back since and has pitched very well. His numbers are better than Skenes in terms of wins above replacement, but he is significantly beneath Paul Skenes in the Rookie of the Year odds board.
38:32
I think Yamamoto and Skenes should be closer to even. And not even odds, but even in terms of their standing. Right, right, yeah.
38:40
And I think Imanaga deserves to be the favorite, but I think he's gotten, again, over his skis to where you will s- if he keeps pitching like this, he's gonna really drop.
38:49
But even if he's average, and Yamamoto's above average, I think the gap between Imanaga and Yamamoto should be much tighter. And I think Skenes,
38:59
I don't think he has as much win equity in this market as we think, because I don't think he's gonna pitch the full season.
39:04
Yeah, I, I, I can only chuckle when we talk about this, 'cause I think, I think it was James Wigarted last week or, or on Wednesday who sa- who said this, where it feels like everybody's trying to get out in front of, in front of betting against Skenes and fade him 'cause he's, he's just, like you said, a- A shooting star...
39:18
he's a shooting star, and, and, and he's kinda- Hot and fast... he's, he, I think a lot of people are kind of assuming he's at the top, right? But James kinda put it this way. Or he- He's pitched four games...
39:27
or he's just really all that good and we're all gonna be wrong [laughs] at the end. He is going to be really good, but that doesn't mean he's going to win Rookie of the Year.
39:37
Again, this is why the awards markets are so baffling for the average public Joe Bettor.
39:46
It's easy to have an opinion on a game, to watch the game, and to have it play out in the way that you thought that game was going to play out.
39:54
It's not like after the game is over, they're going to the booth for three random judges to grade who wins the game. Right. [laughs] That is how awards markets work. That'd be awesome. Like figure skating.
40:08
[laughs] Yeah, it's like gymnastics.
40:09
When I was in college, I took a class at Penn State called the Introduction to Sports Media, and they had us write dissertations, thesis papers at the end of the year, and my topic was what is a sport?
40:20
And my conclusion was, if the sport is decided by the people on the field, it is considered a sport. Baseball, a sport. You could argue that the umpires have a lot of influence. All right, that makes it less of a sport.
40:35
Mm. The end conclusion was the purest sport is, is a marathon. It's, [laughs] I'm gonna beat, or- Oh, yeah, yeah. Or like a shot put.
40:43
Like- I've al- I've always said if you can comfortably drink beer during it, it's not a sport.
40:47
[laughs] But my point being, the definition of a true sport in the purest form of the word is something that is decided purely by the competitors that are competing in that whatever competition. Awards markets are weird.
41:01
The people competing do not have any say in who wins.
41:04
All they do is compete, and then the judges in the booth, in this case the voters, are the ones that have the final say, which is why you, as a viewer and a bettor, have to remove your bias from the equation.
41:16
Is Paul Skenes gonna be the best thing since sliced bread at the end of the day? He might, but he also might pitch 70 innings this year, and might be shut down by August 30th. How will the voters respond to that?
41:30
That is the question you have to ask yourself, not if you think Paul Skenes is the best rookie pitcher in baseball. Doesn't matter, yep. We, we talk about this all the time. Irrelevant. It's irrelevant. Irrelevant.
41:38
You're handicapping. [laughs] Er- erroneous. Erroneous on all counts. It's all erroneous. Erroneous. Yeah. You're, you're handicapping what you think the voters are thinking. Yes.
41:47
And it is- That is the only thing that matters...
41:49
it's very tough, 'cause we spend a lot of time on this show, we spend a lot of time on this network, and when it comes to betting, it is hard for you not to have your own personal- Very hard to remove your bias...
41:57
yes, your own personal bias and feelings on these things, but you have to remove them. You have to remove them, n- and usually you can at least look, uh, with a lot of these, at what historically has come into cash.
42:08
Voter trends. Yes. But some of that stuff changes, some of that stuff changes. That's why these straw polls are very helpful. Now, the straw poll again- They, they are. I, they, uh- Really helpful...
42:17
glad you circled back to that, 'cause I think, like, you know, yeah, Tim Bontemps been doing it in the NBA for a long time. Yeah.
42:22
I made a Jokic bet two years ago based off that straw poll at, like, plus 120, plus 130 to win MVP. In, like, a week, he was, like, mi- like, minus two elephant. They're, they're great.
42:31
What I love about them, it doesn't just help us bettors. I love the idea of it forcing to make these voters think about it multiple times throughout the season. 'Cause you can- I didn't hear from that angle...
42:41
'cause you can also wonder, I think a lot of times we wonder- They just wake up and [laughs]... how off, y- yes, how serious are these guys taking it? Wake up on the last day of the year and vote.
42:48
And, and I know we've got a lot, I know there's a lot of people, including myself, that had Victor Wembanyama ticket to Defensive Player of the Year.
42:54
One of the things that's killed me after the fact, Jared, it's the, it's the guys like Kendrick Perkins and stuff saying, "Oh," like, "We should rip away the award from Rudy Gobert," and I'm like, like- What?...
43:04
and, and you're like, the sample size, it pains me more for you to stand up there and say, "I voted wrong," after 10 games of the playoffs.
43:15
Like, that's ta- that is way worse than you screwing up the vote in the first place to me.
43:19
Like, I, the fact that you can change your mind like that, and I know you're a voter, like, it again, just goes back to this is the difficulties of betting these markets.
43:28
You're not handicapping what you think- You have no idea what these guys are thinking... what you think the player should be. You're handicapping a voter and what they think.
43:35
You have to take your brain out of your skull and try to insert it into another human's brain. It's very hard to do. It's impossible to do, unless you're, like, some kind of weird mad scientist and young Frankenstein.
43:44
But that is the only way to accurately assess the probabilities of a specific player winning a specific award. Conclusion? Ichiro, MVP and r- uh, Rookie of the Year? We just got that tweet. Thank you for that. Um,
44:01
Fred Lynn and Ichiro, the only two players that have won MVP and Rookie of the Year in the same season. It's not gonna happen this year, because I think Imanaga's gonna fade. He's definitely not gonna win Cy Young.
44:09
I think Yamamoto, plus 650. If he pitches well in the Bronx tonight, shuts down that Yankees lineup, who might be without Juan Soto, by the way, I think his odds will shorten when we recircle on Monday.
44:20
Great stuff by our guests, Lou Finocaro, Chris Felica, Kelly Pidlin booked it. Awesome stuff behind the scenes as well, behind the glass. This is a Numbers Game on VS. And have a great weekend, everyone. [upbeat music]
A Numbers Game
Listen on
Apple Podcasts
Apple Podcasts
Pocket Casts
Pocket Casts
Castro
Castro
Recent episodes
A Numbers Game | September 17, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 17, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
