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Jun 9, 2025
A Numbers Game | June 9, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | June 9, 2025 | Hour 2
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44:48
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:10
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel one fifty-eight. It's Gil Alexander.
0:20
Kelly Bidlin's on assignment, everybody. I don't know. I think the assignment goes till tomorrow. He'll be here tomorrow.
0:26
By the way, I'll let you know about Sharp Plays, uh, unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, alerts directly from the pros.
0:35
Don't forget to check out sharpplays.com. Still to come this hour, Carl Sack to talk NBA finals with us, and Wes Reynolds standing by. Wes, uh, not in a great mood after the Pacers game two, uh, performance last night.
0:48
We get tweets at Beating The Book. Let's get to these first. Chris Heath, "I got the worst possible live number on Carlos, minus one oh five, when it was four to four in the first set. Very exciting nonetheless."
0:59
Martel J, "Did Kelly"... Oh, no, I already read-- Oh no, I d- didn't read this one. "Did Kelly go to a Ludacris concert on Thursday?"
1:06
Did he go to the Ludacris concert on Thursday and then assign himself too many Jack and diets for the rest of the weekend? That could be a possibility. That might have happened.
1:14
Johnny Barack also seizing on the commercials. He says, "Every commercial break, an ad for getting out of your timeshare, which is why people keep bringing it up, I assume." [laughs] Yes, we have solved the case.
1:23
Oh, let's see. A frugal listener, a Willie Colonna adds, he says, "A frugal listener can escape their timeshare and save money by switching to Consumer Cellular, all by listening to a Numbers Game."
1:33
Uh, Charles in Connecticut, Hoop Homer, "I like how Todd only denied the living in the attic part. Perfect."
1:39
[laughs] Brian Schaefer, "I just turned the, uh, on a Numbers Game and Gil says, 'Thank you for going crapless there, Todd.'" Did he s- did he soil himself before? No.
1:48
He chose that word over something, uh, a word, an alternative word that was much worse, so I was complimenting him on that.
1:54
And then three Jack points out, he says, "What was the over under on the word crap from Todd today? I don't know, uh, who that Mezic guy is, but it sounds difficult to work with. Toddy, always a great listen."
2:04
Yes, he was actually, uh, awesome. There were a lot of nuggets in there for, for baseball betting hardos, um, that I hope, uh, folks caught on to, and that's, that's the stuff we're texting about nonstop all day long.
2:16
Um, so shout out to Todd for coming on the show. Star of the Megapod, uh, during football season. Uh, this gentleman is part of the glue that holds this whole operation together.
2:24
I just mentioned he's not in a good mood because his hometown Pacers laid an egg last night, but they still get the one-to-one split from the two games at OKC.
2:33
Wes Reynolds joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @wesreynolds1. That's the number one.
2:39
And Wes also added, uh, before that, "You also had s- Sam Burns yesterday," so not the fu- not the most fun day. I get it. No, uh, it was not Sunday fun day.
2:50
Uh, we're able to g- was able to get out a little bit with Ryan Fox, but, uh, had Sam Burns in the playoff, and he's the number one putter on the PGA Tour per all the, all the metrics, and didn't look like it in the playoff, was, was, was absolutely a horror show from a putting standpoint.
3:05
And then they gotta do something, though, and it's not because of the result not going my way. They gotta do something about playing a par five over and over and over again in a playoff.
3:16
It, it, it gets to be just tedious, where it's almost like if I win, I win. I just want it to be over. But, uh, it got over in a hurly, hurry.
3:24
Ryan Fox, uh, on the fourth playoff hole actually stiffed one to about six feet, and, uh, it didn't even make the putt. But Sam Burns, three putts and, uh, ends up losing the playoff.
3:34
So two and two in playoffs so far this year on the PGA Tour. Sil- silly question, and one that I've never really even thought of before. Do you think they would ever standardize that playoff across the board?
3:44
Do you think the PGA would ever step in and say, "This is how you have to do it every time now"? I, I wish that they would do something.
3:50
Well, you have different courses and different layouts and different signature holes. But just to go back to that par five, they actually changed the pin placement.
4:00
Uh, uh, I think every two holes they changed the pin placement. So they only had to change it once.
4:05
But Burns, uh, actually on the fourth playoff hole hit a good shot, but would've been to the previous pin placement, not the one that they had switched to.
4:14
Uh, so unfortunately it was like 70 feet away for eagle instead of being maybe within 10 feet. But yeah, I, I, I, it just gets to be random.
4:22
I, I don, I like going, you know, okay, if you're gonna do a par five, then go to a par four, and then go to something else. You know, make it different.
4:29
I, I had somebody propose to me, like, almost like a, like a, like a Wheel of Fortune type of thing where they, like, you know, spin the wheel around where you land- [laughs] Oh, yeah...
4:37
that's where you go, and that's where you start the playoff. Actually, that wouldn't- That's kind of cool, actually... kind of be kind of freaky. Yeah.
4:42
Yeah, I would actually like that, but they never do anything that's cool and, uh, practical like that. Oh, that would be crazy.
4:48
All right, I wanna circle back to golf on the next 'cause I wanna get your US Open, your preliminary US Open thoughts obviously, uh, with golf's third major taking place this week.
4:56
Um, but first let's talk about the NBA finals and your Pacers, and I just wanna, I wanna pose it this way 'cause we're one to one now after two games. Again, there's two ways you can look at it.
5:07
Hey, we got the split, so we got home court going back to Indiana.
5:10
Um, or you can just be like, "Wow, uh, maybe that's the real thing that happened last night and the first game was just what it was, this amazing miracle."
5:20
Um, my question to you is this: So what does it feel like to you? By the way, game three, the Thunder installed as a four and a half point road favorite, game three at Indiana. Um, does it feel...
5:32
I, I think of a couple sporting events, so follow me here. So there was the, let's, let's stick with the NBA for the first one. There was the Iverson Sixers, you remember, against the Lakers. They won the first game.
5:43
Iverson scored 48, uh, still a record for the most points in one game. By the way, SGA just exceeded, uh, the record for the, uh, the most points in the first two games for someone starting in their first NBA finals.
5:55
Um, but the, the Sixers won that first game, and then the Shaq Kobe Lakers housed them the next four, and that was the end of that in the early part of this century.
6:03
Does it feel more like that, or, and I'll use a baseball, uh, comparison for this one, or does it feel like it could perhaps be, this is before you and I were around, Wes.
6:13
The 1960 World Series famously was the Bill Mazeroski, uh, World Series. It was the Pirates and the Yankees, where the Yankees outscored the Pirates 52 to 27, right?
6:24
The three games the Yankees won were all by double-digit runs, and then the Pirates managed to cobble together four wins despite that and win the series.
6:32
Of those two, and maybe it's somewhere in between, but of those two, what does it feel more like to you, this Pacers-Thunder series?
6:40
I don't wanna give the cop-out answer and not pick one or the other, but it does kind of feel a little bit in, in the middle to me still. I think Wednesday is gonna be the ultimate determinant of that.
6:50
I, I really do to see, okay, where is this absolutely going? Uh, but I, I, look, I felt that the Pacers could compete in, in this series. And, and I still do.
7:01
Last night was what last night was because I think what we saw last night was just
7:06
maybe as simple as a 68-game w- or 68 game-winning team playing like a 68 game-winning team in the regular season where, okay, they felt they let one get away, and they just came out ready to go and, and, and just caught the Pacers.
7:21
And when the Thunder get a lead, that's obviously when, when they're at, when they're at their best because they haven't played a lot of close games this year.
7:30
Uh, they've been, you know, one in either comfortable or dominant fashion, and then they didn't have that. You know, it got kind of to like, you know, real tight late, and that's where I think the Thunder can be had.
7:42
I think that's what the Pacers want. They want a chaotic, you know, kind of wild, wacky, weird game, and they want close games. If these are more close games, then they're, I think, gonna be the Pacers games.
7:53
If they're comfortable margins like last night, then they're gonna be the Thunder because I don't think the Thunder, other than the MVP, as ridiculous as this sounds, have a closer.
8:04
Like, I don't think they have anybody that they really trust in a close game other than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, where I feel like the Pacers feel like they've got five guys that can make a shot at any time if the game is a one-possession game late.
8:16
So I, I don't feel like this is over after what we saw last night.
8:21
I know that's been the common refrain that I've been seeing and hearing this morning, but I don't think that this is over just because the Thunder won comfortably in game two.
8:29
Uh, five and a half, by the way, the spread at this point. Pardon me, five and a half in favor of the Thunder on Wednesday night. Total at 228.
8:36
By the way, I had the under in the game, so I can lament with you about, uh, just having brutal losses yesterday. What about, what about Halliburton, though, and this notion? You know, again, gr- amazing, epic finishes.
8:48
I was comparing, you know, the Pacers earlier to the, uh, the 2019 Virginia Cavaliers of if they somehow pull this off, it is the ultimate team of destiny what they have done in this, in this playoffs.
8:59
However, right, Halliburton does have these games where he then sort of disappears. Five points through three quarters last night.
9:05
And Kendrick Perkins on ESPN yesterday, and I won't try to imitate Kendrick, but you know, they, they, they started a segment, Malika did, by saying, "Well, you know, Halliburton's gotta have a big game," and I think Bob Myers chimed in.
9:17
Um, and, uh, P- and Perkins said, "I don't believe he can, to be honest with you, have a big game in this series." I mean, we have to think of who we're talking about right now.
9:25
We're talking about one of the best defensive teams in NBA history. We're talking about a team that just made the best player in the world have the worst series of his career. By the way, Myers chimed in about Jokic.
9:34
What Perkins meant, he goes, "And then we just watched them shut down Anthony Edwards," and these are guys that are known as elite scorers. Tyrese Halliburton is not known for elite scoring.
9:43
He only averaged 18 points in the playoffs. And when you have guys like Caruso and Dort and Wallace, all these guys are being thrown at you. I don't know if he's capable of having one of those monster scoring nights.
9:52
You agree? He, he might not be.
9:55
Uh, I, I, I think Dort's defense, obviously, is, is the major headliner here of why Halliburton kind of struggled, and he got a lot of garbage points late when the game was, was well decided.
10:06
But you have to get him on the move here, and I just think a lot of the Pacers' possessions last night were half-court possessions.
10:14
And the best thing for the Pacers is to get in transition where they get the ball up the floor quickly.
10:19
It doesn't mean, okay, run it up and just shoot it willy-nilly, but you wanna get into your s- into your set while they're still getting settled defensively.
10:28
And they weren't able to do that last night, I, I think, with, with Tyrese.
10:31
And one-- another thing with Tyrese I noticed, you know, when he misses the first shot or two, you know, it kind of throws him a little bit off kilter.
10:39
When he hits his first shot or two, like against the Knicks he did when he had that big, you know, 30-plus point game, then he's got confidence.
10:46
Then he feels like he's in his bag, if you will, where it's like, "I can go and take the ball wherever I want to. Even if I get myself into trouble, I can get myself out of it."
10:57
And when he feels like he has that confidence, that's a good thing. But he has not had that through the first two games.
11:03
Hit the big shot, and he's willing to take the clutch shot, obviously, and he's done so throughout all these playoffs. But it's-- he's a, he's a momentum player. He's very much a momentum player.
11:13
If he gets something going good early, then he keeps it usually for the rest of the game. And he has provided us with one of the greatest playoffs ever.
11:20
Bobby Belt, uh, tweeting, "Tyrese Halliburton made it-- has made his last eight shots to tie or take the lead in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter in overtime. Just unreal." It has been unreal.
11:31
And if somehow, again, I'll say it again, if they pull it off, man, we just have to go through what has happened in this playoffs and just relive it again 'cause it's, it will, it will be incredible if that is the case.
11:43
I hope it-- I, I'm rooting for it as a fan, but, uh, OKC obviously the monster here in this finals. We shall see. We'll come back. More west next.
11:52
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12:09
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12:15
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12:21
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12:32
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12:43
Uh, DP, Vegas DP: "I would love to see Wishnev Wednesdays make a comeback." So would I. So would I. Off in the dark, Weird Wes is taking the pro Pacers side and saying it's not over. Would never have expected that.
12:55
I hope he's right, though. I do too, actually. Uh, Bill Hooker, "I bet Coco plus 190. I watched the match. I agree with Sabalenka 100%. Do I agree with her saying it? No, not at all." Bill, that's a great tweet.
13:10
100%, again, for those who don't know what Bill's talking about, uh, after the, uh, women's final at the French Open, Coco Gauff wins it as a plus 190 dog.
13:17
Aryna Sabalenka, uh, in a post-game or post-match presser says, "Well, you know," uh, she basically, I'll paraphrase, was saying, "Coco didn't really win it. I lost it." Um, and she got a lot of backlash for it.
13:29
She even went as far as saying, "If Iga had beaten me in the semis, Iga would have beaten her in the, in the, uh, in the finals," and Coco took umbrage. I like when people take umbrage, by the way. You only take umbrage.
13:38
Do you notice that? You never give umbrage.
13:40
Um, he, uh, she, she took umbrage with that, and she was, and she's right to take umbrage because, again, part of tennis is you've got to keep the ball in play, and Iga completely gave the third set to Sabalenka, and Sabalenka probably did play poorly, uh, in the, uh, in the final.
13:55
She had 70 unforced errors, but you don't say that out loud. It's part of tennis, man. She was the better player. She kept, she kept the ball in play. Um, so I'm with you, Bill Hooker.
14:04
And then Dan Groche when shopping the most June wins market, Atlanta seemed like a sneaky pick. [laughs] If the odds weren't only 12 to one, I would have taken a flyer. It's now, what is it?
14:16
I don't know what he's saying the odds are. And the Rockies have three more wins this month in Atlanta. Sometimes the best bets we make are the ones we don't. Oh, I say it all the time. Copyright A Numbers Game.
14:24
Absolutely. Uh, by the way, for those wondering what he's talking about, the Braves this month, June wins update. Let's do the MLB June most wins update. We're on the Tigers at 16 to one.
14:34
Tigers are right around seventh right now. Yeah, seventh at five and three. The Mets and the Giants lead the way at six and two.
14:40
Piece- Mets just got off a series with the Rockies, thus their cartoonish run differential of plus 23. Whole bunch of games left for everybody, but the Braves are O and seven.
14:52
O and seven, and O and five in one-run outcomes, including their last five in a row. Minus 12 their run differential on O and seven. There you go. Let's go, Tigers. Let's get this done for us.
15:05
Uh, Wes Reynolds kind enough to join us for a, uh, second segment. Before we go to golf here, I got a couple things we gotta wrap up. One, so did you have a play?
15:12
Are you taking the Pacers plus the points in game three, Wes? Uh, I have not done that s- yet, but, uh, five and a half now seen, uh,
15:21
I may end up being on the Pacers there, and I'm gonna be in attendance on Wednesday, so really wanna root, root for a Thunder bet, uh, uh, when I'm in attendance in Gainbridge on, uh, Wednesday.
15:31
So, uh, flying back on Wednesday morning, so excited about that. So more than likely, I'm going to have a Pacers ticket in hand. Okay. Uh, and then before we get to golf, only you can answer this question.
15:42
Uh, Wayne Lewis passing away at the age of 68, one of the singers, uh, in the group Atlantic Starr, R&B slow jam sensations. You have what to say about Atlantic Starr, Wes?
15:54
Yeah, and they were, they were a big-time unsung group. I don't know if you've ever watched that show on TV One- I have... called Unsung. Of course.
16:00
It's kind of like a behind the music a little bit, but on, uh, on TV One, where they profile predominantly R&B and hip-hop acts. And Atlantic Starr had a bunch of hits, uh, i- in the 1980s and into the 1990s.
16:14
Uh, their two biggest hits were "Always" and "Secret Lovers," classic ballads- That's right... that David Lewis was actually the lead singer on.
16:21
But Wayne Lewis, who was the keyboardist, uh, was, uh, the co-writing partner with his brother David.
16:28
And, uh, if you've ever heard some of them slow jam, uh, shows that air late at night on various radio stations across the country, "If Your Heart Isn't in It," uh, "Send for l- Send for Me," some cla- Gil, you know these 'cause you played these in, in, uh, in, in- Of course I know them, but you, you have no idea how happy it makes me that you know all these.
16:47
[laughs] That's the point. Yes. I love that you know these. A- absolutely. Yes. Absolutely, but, uh, w- we lose Wayne Lewis at, at 68, the, uh, Atlantic Starr out of White Plains, New York.
16:57
So lot of classic R&B ballads throughout the, uh, 1980s, and then they close with "Masterpiece," which was a big hit in the early 1990s.
17:05
Ladies and gentlemen, that was an Atlantic Starr eulogy of, of, of the highest proportion right there. That was fantastic. All right. Um, U- [laughs] US Open, Oakmont in Texas.
17:17
Um, okay, I know you're gonna have all your plays on long shots. You do that with Matt Brown and Kelly Tilghman, of course, Kelly Tilghman on assignment. Um, you're gonna have your full card then.
17:28
But let's get, go through some preliminaries here. Scottie Scheffler, plus 275, Wes, good God, to win this thing. Uh, obviously coming off his, uh, his title.
17:40
Uh, and Rory the other one to win a major, so Rory wins the Masters. Scottie obviously, uh, wins the PGA. Rory's plus 850. Not sure where we stand on Rory now with his current mood.
17:51
DeChambeau the only other person in single digits at nine to one. Then it's Rahm at 12 to one, and then the gap between everybody else. Um, let's just talk about those top four. Where do we stand?
18:02
You, you can't make a bet on Scheffler pre-flop, can you? I guess you could, and you- Not a bet number, I mean... you'd get paid if you have, but- Yeah...
18:10
yeah, but I, n- I'm not, and I'm not going to either because, uh, you know, this is the great equalizer. It's not just a physical test.
18:18
It's the biggest mental test of the year because you have this, you know, five-inch thick rough and very narrow fairways.
18:26
They're only about 28 yards wide on average, so these are some of the most narrow fairways that they're gonna get at Oakmont.
18:32
Oakmont, by the way, is more of a classical US Open design, and there's a reason why this is the 10th time that Oakmont is gonna host the US Open, uh, because they've tried to go and mix up in different places.
18:44
But this is your classical design based in the Northeast, and, uh, and, uh, I think that this is arguably the toughest test that they have in the US Open rota, where I think somewhere Very low single digits under par or maybe even even par is gonna win this thing, because if you get it in the thick stuff, you've basically, it's a penalty shot.
19:06
It's like hitting it in the water or hitting it out of bounds, basically.
19:10
So you're almost taking a penalty shot where you just gotta pitch it back in the fairway and take your medicine, and that affects everybody, even, even the best player in the world like Scottie Scheffler.
19:19
So it's gonna be a tough test, so that's why it's hard for me to bet plus 275, 11 to four on, you know, who is the best player in the world.
19:28
But in terms of those four, Rory did miss the cut last week at the RBC, which that course up in Toronto is, seemed like it was, like, tailor-made for him, and he played, he played bad. So I don't know.
19:40
I'm willing to kind of forego Rory here. But Jon Rahm's a little bit interesting, because for the first time in about a year and a half, he actually did contend in a major at the PGA.
19:51
Remember, he tied Scottie Scheffler on Sunday when Scheffler was making the turn to the back nine. Yeah. And then Rahm got to that tough green mile at Quail Hollow. That's right.
19:59
Went five over his last three holes and ended up finishing T8. But that was the first time Rahm has really been back in the mix for a major, so I think maybe he carries some confidence despite the horrible finish.
20:11
He carries some confidence here. So Jon Rahm at 12 to one. Bryson obviously is a proven commodity at the U.S. Open, so he's a guy that's won bomb and gouge before. Hit it as far as you can.
20:22
If you get it in the rough, chop it out. He was able to do that at Wingfoot a couple years ago, uh, in 2020 for his first of two U.S. Opens. So I like DeChambeau and Rahm over Scheffler and Rory, at least at the top.
20:34
Okay. Um, give us a name, and again, we're not holding you to it, but I, but I think you probably have some idea of where you'll have a better two.
20:43
What's the name further down that leaderboard that you think is built for a U.S. Open-type golf course?
20:52
You know, uh, uh, because he's been so erratic this year, I'm a little bit hesitant to give this name out, but I'm looking at Viktor Hovland at 60 to one.
21:01
And, and, and I feel like he's got the game, but he just, he, he messes with the swing all the time, and that's what concerns you about him. It's kind of like a, you know, paralysis by analysis, if you will.
21:12
But the, the guy, I think, has the game, and I think if the scoring is lower to par, that's gonna favor him a little bit. So Viktor Hovland, also in that similar price range, about 45 to one.
21:25
Shane Lowry was the runner-up here back in 2016, uh, the co-runner-up behind Dustin Johnson. How far Dustin Johnson has fallen. He won the last time the U.S.
21:34
Open was here at Oakmont in 2016, and I'm looking at the board now. He's 170 to one. Hundred seventy to one. Well, he's got all that LIV money. What does he care, you know? Yes, he does. Yeah.
21:45
And, and, and has a, uh, has a, has a, has a wife and a family that he enjoys very much. Yes. Uh, [laughs] yes, he does. Oakmont Country Club, Oakmont, Pennsylvania, for the U.S. Open, which begins on Thursday.
21:55
And I've asked you this an, a number of times. I'm just gonna do it one more time here, um, because this is my favorite event to watch, right? I like to see adversity on a golf course.
22:04
I hate these tournaments, Wes, where someone's shooting 20 under or, or lower to win it. Who's the Andy North or the Curtis Strange of this generation?
22:13
Is there a guy who you wouldn't consider for other tournaments, but this kind of difficulty suits him? Mm. I would probably... I mean, I, he, uh, some of these guys are proven players, though, where they have won.
22:27
But, uh, you know, Matt Fitzpatrick is a real grinder at a U.S. Open. He of course won at Brookline a couple years ago up in Massachusetts, so he's always, like, that grinder a little bit.
22:39
Uh, Harris English is a, is a guy that I think I'm gonna like this week. Uh. Okay. A little bit longer course, very accurate in the fairway. So, uh, we shall see. Uh, I don't know. Maybe there's not an Andy North.
22:50
Maybe there- Maybe... this is just a top-heavy generation here. Thank you, Wes. Thanks for the Atlantic Star as well, my man. [upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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23:55
Uh, we get tweets at Betting the Book. Always appreciate the feedback from y'all. Best listeners in the game. Missed you.
24:00
Scott C, scottybook17, "Love the bullpen breakdown from Todd Wisniew on a numbers game earlier with first five bets so ubiquitous. I think people are missing value on bullpen advantage and disadvantage."
24:13
Uh, Scott, 100% agree. I hope everybody found huge value in what Todd had to offer. I, I agree with you completely. Frank Chukagian, uh, Chukagian. I hope I'm pronouncing that right.
24:25
frankiebaby4, let's go with his Twitter handle. "I thought the roof left open at the Roland-Garros women's final hurt Sabalenka's serve advantage in the match." I- you know what? We can speculate on that.
24:35
The one thing that I will say about, uh, Roland-Garros, 'cause the big controversy is they didn't have the, the ladies matches at night ever. Um, but the other thing was the, the sort of arbitrary is the roof closed?
24:46
Is the roof gonna be open? 'Cause what was it? Alcaraz's semifinal where they just kinda left it closed, and there was no reason for it to be closed. So it was like they just were doing it arbitrary.
24:57
And by the way, as far as the, uh You know, the, the, the heat that they got about not having any women's matches on primetime, there is one counterargument to it.
25:06
Because by and large, I'm on the side of the people who are, who are anti-French Open on this. But the only problem with, with having women's matches at night is they are best of threes.
25:18
And, and, you know, it's one thing that the US Open, a lot of American female tennis players really highly ranked.
25:25
But if you go elsewhere, there's no other country that has so many, uh, ladies tennis players highly ranked as we do.
25:32
So the French Open probably views it as, well, you know, the rest of the world still likes the men's matches. But the, the, the mechanical problem also in their favor is women's matches are best of threes.
25:42
And if you only schedule one women's match for the night session, and then let's say it's the Coco-Boisson semifinal, and it's like, what, six-one, six-two, well, you're out of there in 56 minutes.
25:56
So that's really the only argument they ha- they have in their favor. They don't usually use that argument, but that's the one they should.
26:03
Nemesis Enforcer, uh, Nemesis Enforcer, "Sabalenka plays like she's always a double fault away from losing control. Good player, way too much grunting." [laughs] "Haphazard command.
26:12
She didn't see Coco whoop Iga in straights a few weeks ago. I had Coco two to one sets, figured it would go like their US Open final." Um, yeah, easy with the Iga stuff. She's just, something's wrong with her mentally.
26:24
Ace DiCardano, "Welcome back, Gil. You know what this segment needs? More Wishnev. Love to hear Todd thinking out different ways to attack sportsbook weaknesses." Yes, E was fantastic.
26:34
Doug Tuttle, "Can we give some love to Shane Lowry? Maybe first round leader, 50 to one." And the numbers guys, "Regarding the men's final, greatest match ever. No hyperbole.
26:43
I know the old-timers will point to Borg-McEnroe, however, Johnny Mac keeps saying these guys are so much more advanced than even the big three in such a short time. Make Todd permanent, by the way.
26:52
Where's the clouded smoke dude?" Oh, there's a lot in that tweet. One, you're right.
26:57
Um, McEnroe was the first person to say that, that Nadal, Federer, and Djokovic were way better than he and his cohorts were, like Bjorn Borg back in the day.
27:05
And he is now saying Sinner and Alcaraz would be favored over Rafa on clay at Philips, at Philip Chatrier. I don't know about that, but that's an interesting comment.
27:15
Uh, make Todd permanent, I would love to, but Todd's, you know, he's big time. And, uh, where's the clouded smoke dude? Yeah, Jason, uh, Jason decided he didn't wanna, he didn't wanna come on all the time anymore.
27:25
So we're just acquiescing there, uh, to, uh, Jason's wishes. Uh, Carl Sack joins us now. By the way, no beef between me and Jason. We're still boys. This is all my guy.
27:35
Uh, Carl Sack joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him, of course, at Killer Sports and Killer Cappers, and he's a man who moves NBA markets. How you doing, Carl? I'm doing well.
27:45
How are you, Gil? Good. Can we just thank you once again for the recent Killer Sports contest, where yesterday Steve Fezzik tailing your pick of OKC minus the points, Fezzik knocked me out with his win.
27:58
I had lost on the total anyway. I went under, and somehow that lost. So it was down to Fezzik, Zach Cohen, me, and Doug Kazerian. I am knocked out. Doug is only mathematically alive. He'd have to win out.
28:09
Fezzik would have to lose out. So it's really between Steve Fezzik and Zach Cohen, man. This was great. Yeah. Yeah, it's been fun.
28:16
Um, props to, uh, to Bill to help organize all the logistics on this, and, um, yeah, looking forward to, uh, to competing, uh, personally competing a little bit better, uh, in the future.
28:32
We, uh, we, we made it a point here on the Numbers Game to protect the names of the innocent that weren't quite as, uh, competitive at the top. So we- [laughs] Yeah, we, we didn't, we didn't really stress on that.
28:41
But it was, it was so much fun. And now again, Zach and, uh, Steve, what's the first prize again? How much money? Uh, 3,000. 3,000, and second place is 500? Um- Yeah...
28:52
Steve has pledged if he wins to the Circa room attendants, he's giving all his money to the Circa room attendants, and he adds, "Good luck" for, uh, [laughs] to them to figure out how they're gonna distribute that.
29:03
But that's how he's pledged his money. But Zach has something to say about that. All right, uh, you were on OKC last night minus the points.
29:10
We go back now to, well, not we go back, but we're going to Indiana for game three, where the Pacers, despite getting shellacked last night, still now have home court, having won game one in miraculous fashion.
29:21
OKC's a five-and-a-half-point road favorite. 228 remains the total. How do you see this? Yeah, you know, this is a tough one. I, I don't-- From a side perspective, I, I don't know that I'm gonna get involved.
29:35
I, I make the number a little bit lower. OKC has not really played well, um, on the road.
29:43
Uh, they, they just, they have a really good home court advantage, and it, and it makes sense because they are a young team, and, and young teams do tend to play better at home.
29:51
[lips smack] Um, I'm curious to learn a little bit more about this Halliburton, um- Yes. Yeah... I just saw a couple reports last night and, and some video that he was limping, uh, post-game.
30:05
Uh, it, it may not be anything significant, but at the end of the day, um, from a side perspective, I, I suspect that I'm not gonna get involved here.
30:16
Uh, I think the best way to attack it is probably focusing on the total. Um, these two teams, in the, in the first three rounds, they really pushed the pace, and, and I think, you know, they could rely on their depth.
30:31
They were playing teams that were top-heavy, so it made sense. They were playing every other day. Uh, in these finals, they're both well-rested, and they're not playing every other day.
30:42
And, and both teams, because they rely on their depth and, and the opposite team isn't top-heavy, I don't think there's as much incentive for them to push the pace.
30:53
We've got, um, you know, we got a t- tied series in the finals. Finals games historically, you know, there's a lot of pressure. And, and mathematically, I, I'd make the number, uh, 226 and a half.
31:06
So I think there might be a little bit of value focusing on the under here in game three. Uh, not to mention, you know, the, the, the wild card of, of Halliburton
31:18
But again, I, I, I suspect that's not gonna be a major variable. Uh, but I, I do think there might be some value here going on the full game under.
31:26
Yeah, Halliburton noticeable slight limp arriving and leaving his press conference. Again, well, you know, who knows if that's a thing or not a thing.
31:34
I guess if you're the Pacers, you know, one of the things you can sort of hang your hat on, or whatever cliche you wanna use is, you know, okay, they did get 20 from Caruso. They got, um, 18 from Wiggins.
31:47
The two of them were a combined nine of 16 from three. You certainly can't count on that every night. Um, so good on them, they did it.
31:56
But if, uh, if we could just get Halli- I'm just thinking out loud here, if you're Rick Carlisle, if, if, if Halliburton could be a little more aggressive early on, 'cause again, five points through three quarters, that's been his thing, right?
32:07
That's always his thing, right? He has these, you know...
32:09
What we will remember if, if the playoffs were to have ended tonight, what we would, you know, today, what we would remember more than anything is his unbelievable heroics, not once, not twice, not three times, but four different times during this playoffs down the stretch.
32:24
Um, so look, it's, it's a de facto best of five. They've got the home court. They've gotta, they just, you know, they gotta put that game yesterday out of their minds. So there's a lot for them to hang their hat on.
32:34
I think I'm inclined to take the points here. And I, I will say this, and I'm curious if you, you know, this is not quantitative, but this is more just a feel.
32:42
I do feel like if OKC manages a split here, minimum with them, that the Thunder are gonna, are gonna get this done. I, I kind of feel like the Pacers need to take both of these. Yeah. I, I agree. And, and I,
32:59
it, it's hard to not think that Indy's not gonna get at least one of these. I agree. Um,
33:05
and, and for that reason, like, I've got some situational stuff that, that favors Oklahoma City, and I think that's what's keeping me away from, um, from playing Indy here.
33:16
But Indy is a five-and-a-half-point home dog off of a, you know, double-digit loss. It's enticing. Oh, I see.
33:24
Carl just dropped a nugget there which, um, some people may not have caught, which is this is sort of like a Dr. Bob thing, which is like- Mm-hmm...
33:30
your model tells you one thing, but there are some historical trends that sort of back you off of it. And so those historical- Yeah...
33:36
trends are, are saying in favor of OKC that back you off of what otherwise would've been a Pacers play is, is what I'm getting there. Yeah. Yeah. All right, Carl, appreciate it, man. Thank you so much.
33:47
Have a great week, Gil. You too. Good talking to you. You too. Carl Sack, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. We'll recap the bets next.
33:53
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:09
Back on The Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander. Kelly Midlin back tomorrow. Is Kelly back tomorrow? Yes? Yeah, get him, get it. Kelly's back tomorrow. The assignment ends.
34:19
I don't know where the assignment was, but he's back tomorrow. Um, we get tweets at Beating The Book. Nemesis Enforcer, uh, adds, um, "Figured it out. Sabolenc a fail. She has one gear 'cause she's the media darling.
34:31
Nobody says it out loud." Uh, and then he says, "LMFAO. Easy with the Iga stuff. My bad, bro."
34:36
[laughs] James Sod, "With barely any points to defend, I see Iga's clear head returning and making a run here in the second half of the year, starting with a Wimbledon championship, which no one will see coming."
34:45
Oh my, good God. Could you imagine? Uh, and then RobbieJ920, "Draisaitl seems like a bit of a wise guy character with the media and press conference from clips I've seen. Could factor into the voting, unfortunately."
34:57
Oh, you think that's a negative 'cause he's a wise guy? Interesting. Uh, speaking of Draisaitl, let's recap all of our best bets again on the show. Every show, every host, every guest, every sport.
35:06
Recapping the best bets courtesy of gbank, the official bank of VSiN. I don't have anything today 'cause I'm, uh, I'm gonna watch some grass tennis for a week or two before I dive in, if at all. I will.
35:15
I'm gonna dive in after that probably. Uh, but, uh, what I have going on, again, Tigers 16 to 1, most wins in June. Again, they're five and three right now. They're in seventh place.
35:25
Uh, only the Mets and Giants with six wins right now atop the Tigers in the win column anyway. And then I have Leon Draisaitl, the aforementioned Leon Draisaitl, nine to win to win the Conn Smythe.
35:37
Uh, you could've gotten him at a better number than I did before that. But again, for me, I, I sort of, the first round of the, uh, Stanley Cup playoffs, I said Edmonton looks like a team that could win the Cup.
35:46
My very blink, Malcolm Gladwell, you know, non-deep dive analysis of the Oilers. And of course, I didn't bet it. So Draisaitl was my way of getting back in, and he's still seven to one.
35:58
Three overtime goals in this playoff for Leon Draisaitl. That ties the record.
36:02
Um, are we to really say that if he could-- Let's say he gets a fourth overtime goal and breaks the record for overtime, uh, postseason goals. He's really not gonna win Conn Smythe at that point?
36:11
I get it, Connor McDavid is great. Jake Hahn is on the Oilers tonight in game three of the Stanley Cup final. Series knotted up at one game a piece.
36:19
Edmonton trying to become the first Canadian team to win the Cup since 1993 when the Canadiens did it. Uh, Jake is on the Oilers at plus 126.
36:29
Uh, Wes only had leans, so we did not include, uh, Wes's play on the Pacers 'cause that was not official, nor was there anything from, uh, Carl Sack, uh, officially speaking.
36:37
Um, gbank, of course, responsible for all of our best bets, the official bank of VSiN. Introducing the $500 trifecta from gbank, First Bet, and VSiN. All you need to do is open a gbank Visa signature credit card.
36:48
In the first 90 days, deposit and play through $1,000 at First Bet to trigger the $500 trifecta. You'll receive $200 in cashback rewards on your gbank Visa signature credit card.
36:57
First Bet will give you a $100 deposit match. VSiN completes the trifecta with a free VSiN Pro subscription through October 31st, a $200 value. That's the $500 trifecta from gbank, First Bet, and VSiN.
37:10
Head to vsin.com/gbank. That's V-S-I-N.com/gbank. This one-time promotion is limited to customers opening a new account in response to this offer and will not apply to requests to convert existing accounts. Apply today.
37:21
Terms and conditions apply. Um- Kevin Downes, by the way, tweets an "Add West to my list, brother from another, my God, Atlantic Star. Thanks for the info. Those were the days." Yes, they were.
37:33
Slow jamming back in the day. Um, this caught my eye during a week off, and it's a, uh, lawsuit.
37:39
I was gonna save this for Crack later in the week, and maybe we will t- we will talk with, uh, Bill Krackomberger about this.
37:44
But a man is suing DraftKings, uh, for fourteen point two million dollars, um, DraftKings and its subsidiary, Crown IA Gaming, uh, Crown Iowa Gaming, alleging he is owed fourteen point two million after placing a series of bets on the twenty twenty-four Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
38:05
Uh, the PGA Tour signature event, uh, was affected by weather. If you recall, Wyndham Clark led after the third round.
38:12
He was eventually declared the winner when officials ended the tournament after fifty-four holes due to unplayable weather conditions on Sunday.
38:20
Now, per Golf Week Magazine, so this is after the third round, before what would have been the fourth round on Sunday. So this is Saturday evening.
38:29
Nicholas Babis of Iowa placed five bets on the tournament with DraftKings, which was still accepting wagers, including parlays that relied on current leaderboard positions, despite the possibility, once again, of the final round not taking place.
38:46
And according to the lawsuit, uh, Babis placed five bets. Could be "Babis," uh, but we'll go with Babis here.
38:51
Placed five bets between around ten PM on that Saturday evening and twelve O one AM on Sunday, so in a two-hour window, and they were basically parlay bets, um,
39:03
that relied on the fourth round or the final round getting canceled and everybody remaining in the same order they were on the leaderboard.
39:11
So he made a parlay bet of, uh, four-- So f-four of the bets totaling three hundred dollars were for an identical twenty picks parlay, where Babis selected Clark as the winner and every other player in the bet to finish the tournament where they placed on the leaderboard at that time, which obviously, once they canceled it, stayed that way.
39:33
Um, the parlay bet, of course, everything hits the hit, but he would've returned, combined, those four bets hitting all twenty, right, would've returned over thirteen point nine million of the fourteen point two million.
39:47
Apparently, he made one other bet for twenty-five bucks, uh, second parlay predicting the top twenty placings in no particular order, which would've returned a, a mere quarter of a million dollars added onto that.
39:59
So anyway, um, storms in Monterey Peninsula, um, crushed the tournament. Strong winds forecast. They, they manifested, and in the early hours, the PGA Tour canceled the final round, uh, at six PM local.
40:13
I think they, they canceled it on Sunday and then canceled on Monday, or maybe it was Monday. Anyway, the final round was canceled, uh, through an abundance of caution was their phrase as to why they did it.
40:22
So, so here's the deal. So the guy, Babis, the guy b- you know, who's, who's putting forth the lawsuit, he said, "Hey, look, you owe me fourteen point two million."
40:33
And it says that DraftKings unilaterally voided all five of his bets, refunded him instead, citing rules on futures bets which state that they are canceled if they are placed after the last shot of what is later deemed to be the final round of the tournament.
40:46
Uh, his lawyer -- So, so on the one hand, so my first reaction to this was, "Yeah, man," like, you know, "they shouldn't have left it up."
40:55
And if that's the f- you know, and, and so I, I'm sort of, my first instinct was the sportsbook's right. But I re- I recall a, a case here in Las Vegas. Chrissy used to tell me about this.
41:06
Uh, there was a David Toms tournament back in the day where bets were left up at some shops here in Nevada, and bettors saw that the, the markets were still up, and they bet David Toms to win a tournament, and that round was, had started already.
41:22
So what, it wasn't that the round wasn't played.
41:24
The round had started already, and so, uh, those bettors who bet on David Toms, the books tried to refund them, and Gaming actually backed the bettors in Nevada and said, "Yeah, but you left them up.
41:35
You, you gotta pay 'em, and you gotta pay 'em." Um, so, uh, you know, so there's a couple ways to look at that.
41:41
But the lawyer, and this is where I really wanted to bring this up, the lawyer basically said if he had lost the bet and said, "I want my money back because I didn't think the weather was going to cancel things," DraftKings would've kept his money.
41:56
The rules that DraftKings had in place at the time of the tournament did not allow them to void the bets. They changed the rules after this tournament.
42:02
The lawsuit also alleges that DraftKings has a, quote, "dizzying array of interlocking sets of rules that may or may not govern each bet depending on the type of wager placed, the specific event, and the particular sport.
42:14
However, when DraftKings makes an error or accepts a bet it should not have or when unforeseen events occur that require an unanticipated large payout by DraftKings, then it seems different rules apply."
42:24
And I just wanna, I wanted to bring it up, and I'll bring it up later with Crack of the Week, because we have to do something about this kind of thing in sports betting. We really do.
42:34
Um, many of you know, and I'm, I'm not trying to bring this up on, on any given occasion, but regardless of how you feel about my dispute with the Westgate from some years ago, two of the tenants that I leaned on were the very two tenants that this guy -- It's a little different circumstance 'cause mine was not a fourth round wasn't played.
42:50
Mine was a tournament was moved.
42:53
But two things remain consistent, which is, one, you have vague rules that you are applying in a very sort of haphazard way, and usually when that's the case, tie goes to the runner.
43:09
The bettor gets the, uh, the call on the vague rules. That's usually how it works. So books have this ability to interpret the rules however they want in these situations.
43:20
And secondly, and the other point that the guy is making is you also didn't reach out to, you know, you, you're also, in my case, you didn't reach out to others and say, "Oh, by the way, you get your, your money back."
43:31
Those people didn't know that they lost their money in, in certain bets. In other words, you only took the money back from the winner, but what did you do?
43:39
You free-rolled everybody else, and that's kinda what this guy is saying with, "Yeah, if I had lost the bet and said I want my money back because I didn't think the weather was going to cancel things," obviously DraftKings wouldn't have given his money back.
43:50
Anyway, it's an interesting case, and we'll see how it goes, and I'm curious how f- how this will be adjudicated in the end. Fourteen point two million dollars, and I don't know.
44:01
It's, it's in the state of Iowa, so this is also a state-by-state thing. So we have no real precedent there to know how this will go.
44:07
But again, just one of these things in sports betting where it's like we gotta, we gotta be more clear about this stuff 'cause these suits will just keep on coming up. People will have creative, quote-unquote, "bets."
44:18
Books will look askance at them, but they might be on the hook. We shall see. Uh, Money Moves is next. Stormy and JVT, they're from noon to two, after which Prop Points with Nick Whelan.
44:30
Nick's got a bunch of, uh, guest hosts, uh, on the show with him. Oxymoron, by the way, guest host. Nick Whelan will, uh, be at the helm for Prop Points after that. And a little later on, Make It Rain.
44:40
It's VSiN, the sports betting network. Enjoy. [upbeat music]
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