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Mar 11, 2025
A Numbers Game | March 11, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | March 11, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:33
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. It's a Numbers Game. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bittling in the hizzy at Circa.
0:23
How you doing, man? I'm doing great. How about you? I'm doing wonderfully. Uh, good show. Dr. Bob, what Dr. Bob could not finish yesterday, Dr. Bob will today on the show. That's right.
0:32
We barely got started with him yesterday. We shortchanged him. I, I always forget how- That was our fault. Yeah, it was. I always forget how much great stuff he has this time of year. Yeah.
0:39
He, uh, he's got a lot to say, let's put it that way. Right. [laughs] And I should've anticipated that. So Dr.
0:44
Bob will join us, talk college basketball conference trends, and, uh, to which those teams apply, or to which those trends apply, to which, uh, specific teams those trends apply today. Paul Carr will talk soccer with us.
0:56
Paul just chilling in spring training- Yep... with his, uh, True Media Networks analytics thing that he does. This, uh, Champions League stuff is, uh, sort of the, the secondary life of his.
1:06
Um, but he will, uh, discuss his picks here today. Will Hill, with all his college basketball conference plays, um, almost got there last, last, uh, week with Queens, not quite.
1:18
See if he's got a long shot here in any of the conferences today. Plus I wanna ask random college basketball questions that might not have anything to do with betting.
1:26
I went to the, uh, the West Coast Conference, uh, tournament semis at the majestic Orleans Arena yesterday courtesy of the great Christy Andrews, my mishpucha.
1:34
Uh, Jeffru- Jeffrey Parlet in the house as well, and Parles and I got to talking about just random college basketball stuff, so I wanna get, uh, Will's opinion on.
1:42
Uh, for, for the random friend that you have who just shows up for March Madness- Mm... we all have them, right?
1:49
But now particularly with the transfer portal at NIL, what is the most recognizable college basketball team in the country to that person? Ooh, great question.
1:57
That, um, was one of them, just to give you an idea of what the kind of thing I'm talking about. Uh, Drew Dincic, of course, joining us on, uh, Thursday, but I'm noticing 15 minutes later than normal.
2:06
What's going on with Drew, that he c- he's moving it back? He's got work to do. He's got work to do? He's got work to do. Yeah, yeah. In the, uh, seismology world? No, no. I think in the broadcasting world. Oh.
2:15
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. Well, he mentioned, he mentioned on the, uh, on the Indian Wells podcast, which I did with both he and Zach, that there are bigger things to come for Drew Dincic. There we go. Yeah.
2:26
Maybe we'll- There we go... maybe he'll spill 'em out here on the show. Uh, Kelly's got some stuff to say about NBA awards as well. Um, but we gotta start with, uh...
2:33
And I'll have a tennis pick, so I'll have two tennis picks. We, uh, went one and one yesterday. Daria Kasatkina up a set, gacked it, so we lose four-tenths of a unit yesterday.
2:41
Dimitrov did get it done late night, great match. Uh, so tennis picks- Grigor. Grigor. Tennis picks coming up. Um, football though, the free agency carousel, my goodness.
2:52
And it, and it strikes me that we are right now in this moment living what we talk about here on the Numbers Game so often through the years, which is, you know, again, you can only win a Super Bowl with a Hall of Fame quarterback or a quarterback that is over-performing on a rookie deal.
3:10
And the window, the window to win Super Bowls oftentimes, unless you have a generational exception like Patrick Mahomes, the window is small typically, and we are seeing in real time, you know, both ends of the spectrum, and everything in between, quite frankly.
3:27
And what I'm referring to obviously, first of all, is the, the short window of the San Francisco 49ers, who got to two Super Bowls.
3:34
In this era, obviously, I'm not talking about the Montana young years, but in this era, one with Garoppolo, one, uh, with Brock Purdy, and it's over, Kelly. The window is shut.
3:45
Uh, we knew going into last year that the window was going to be either this year and maybe next year, um, because they had contracts coming up, but this is the very swift ending of a, uh, of an era that had so much promise, but ultimately, uh, I don't think it's gonna produce any Super Bowl titles.
4:02
I think we can say that now. Uh, yesterday, perhaps the most symbolic of all of them, beyond just stats, Kyle Juszczyk let go. Yeah. [laughs] The, the heart and soul of that team in so many ways. Yeah.
4:16
Um, Juszczyk released, and that on the heels of, uh, the Niners obviously trading Deebo to Washington, Deebo Samuel, and then yesterday, um, Charvarius Ward gets signed by the Colts, which is a great pickup by the Indianapolis Colts.
4:31
And then a couple of injured players on defense that were once great. Dre Greenlaw, uh, ends up, uh, in Denver. Dre Greenlaw, who, uh, ruptured his Achilles famously in the Super Bowl.
4:41
And, uh, Talanoa Hufanga, who at one point looked like the second coming of Troy Polamalu, maybe he gets back there, but he's a guy who tore his ACL, uh, torn ligaments in his wrists of all things as well.
4:56
He ends up, both of those guys, Greenlaw and, uh, Hufanga, both get signed by the Denver Broncos.
5:02
Denver hoping that they can add to their already great defense, third, uh, best in terms of points allowed last year, obviously with the player of the year in Patrick Surtain.
5:10
They're hoping that they, that those guys can return to some form of glory.
5:15
Um, but that's, that's the Niners, and you, you know, you think about, they know that the Brock Purdy extension is coming up, so they have to plan for that as well.
5:24
But the biggest thing is, and I'll say this, and this gets to the next part of this, which is the biggest thing they lost was Adam Peters to me.
5:29
And while, uh, John Lynch is their GM, Adam Peters, what he did and what he has done in Washington, this is beyond, again, the Jayden Daniels pick at number two, which again, Kelly, you and I not only could have picked, but talked about picking, right, as so many people did.
5:42
Anybody could have picked that out of a magazine if you just picked up a draft magazine. Mm. But it's everybody else, right? And- What did they do yesterday?
5:51
What did Washington do yesterday on, on, you know, on the heels of the Deebo trade? Which again, you can... And here's my point. You can quibble, you can argue.
5:58
Reasonable minds can, reasonable minds can disagree if Deebo will ever return to his past glory of 2021. Um, but when you have a quarterback, this is, this is the Niners two years ago, right? Or three years ago.
6:09
All the promise of a, of a guy over-performing on a rookie deal. Um, Washington goes ahead yesterday and makes a big trade for Laremy Tunsil, offensive tackle of the, uh, formerly of the Houston Texans.
6:22
What Houston is doing letting Laremy Tunsil go on an already bad offensive line, I have no idea. Their best player on their offensive line.
6:28
Washington gets Tunsil and a fourth rounder next year for a fifth, excuse me, a third next year, a seventh next year, and then a second and fourth in 2026.
6:38
So not a, not a negligible sum to give up for Tunsil, but they're going for it, 'cause this is what you do when your window is there. You go for it. And you got the cap space. And you have Jayden Daniels as your anchor.
6:49
Uh, Tunsil, if you want some, uh, some advanced stats, 'cause we don't usually talk about offensive linemen, uh, advanced stats, but this comes to us from our buddy, uh, Seth Walder over at ESPN.
6:58
93% pass block win rate, 10th best in the NFL. 75% run block win rate, 39th best. He also led the entire NFL in penalties regardless of position, with only 19. Yeah.
7:10
And, uh, Walder had him when he did his MVP story, 100 best players in the NFL, he had Tunsil 72nd. Uh, and C- Tunsil is consistent. It's not just a one-year thing.
7:20
92% or 93% pass block win rate in each of the last three seasons over 48 regular season games.
7:26
And then they s- and then Washington goes ahead, former Niner and through the Jets obviously for one season, Javon Kinlaw, who, yes, they're hoping that they get some modicum of his past glory.
7:37
Three years, 45 million, probably overpaid with 30 million guaranteed.
7:41
But with the Jets, while he only had four and a half sacks, uh, along with a 10% pass, uh, rush win rate at defensive tackle, that's actually, that, that pass rush win rate is 15th best in the NFL.
7:53
Slightly best, uh, slightly above average. 35% run stop, 19th best, slightly below average. Both were career highs, though, for Kinlaw. So depends how you look at it.
8:02
Anyway, you have one team in the Niners that the window is shutting, and you wonder, how can their odds still be as short as they are?
8:08
And the other is Washington, which is like, they've got Philadelphia in their minds with everything they do. Oh, you got a good defensive line? Here's Laremy Tunsil.
8:16
Um, you got, you want somebody who'll stick u- you know, who'll, uh, stand up to them in a postseason? Here's Deebo Samuel.
8:21
And so along with Davante Adams going to the Rams, the other sort of, uh, you know, contender, the, the next sort of, uh, closest team to the Eagles in a game of red light, green light, um, that's the big news in the NFC to me.
8:34
The r- what the Rams and Washington have done to try to close the gap with the Philadelphia Eagles. And then there's everything in between. There's everything in between. First of all, here's the...
8:42
Have you seen the Kinlaw? This is, uh, excuse me, the, uh, the Tunsil. Was it the, uh, the Tunsil, uh, tweet was the first one? Yeah, yeah. Uh, this comes to us.
8:50
This, [laughs] this is about Houston giving up on Laremy Tunsil, which i- it's from I, uh, from Ian Hartitz, who says, "Been saying all off-season C.J. Stroud needs a worse offensive line in order to rebound in 2025."
9:01
[laughs] And then when I was talking about every team in between, right?
9:04
The teams that are going forward, the teams whose windows are shutting, and then there's th- guys who are just moving, you know, everything else we talk about.
9:11
So Sam Darnold does end up with the Seahawks as we speculated. Mm-hmm. Gino before that, of course, going to the Raiders with Pete Carroll. Uh, okay to both of them. Like, I still don't know what Seattle doing.
9:20
Like, I don't. I get it what you were saying yesterday. I- They just don't figure they can win a Super Bowl, so they're blowing it up. Okay. Uh, DK goes to the, to the Steelers.
9:28
I love the combination of Pickens and Metcalfe, though you could say they both are kind of the same receiver with the same roots, and they also don't have a quarterback yet. Is it gonna be Aaron Rodgers? Is it not?
9:38
Is he the right guy? Um, and there's just other, like, little things that happened where, like, you know, the Saints signed Chase Young to a big three-year deal. I'm like, "What are you doing?" Mm-hmm. Yeah.
9:49
Why would you spend that money on Chase Young just to continue to be mediocre? Yeah, like, sounds like, like, they're running a lot of it back. Like, what? What are you, what are you doing?
9:57
And then there's, and then there's, you know, the Cowboys. This is a stat. I didn't know this stat. Connor NFL Draft, Connor Live say, uh, "The Cowboys have not signed a free agent over $6 million per year.
10:08
They've not signed one in free agency since Greg Hardy in 2015." UFC legend. And the salary cap over that time period has increased over $135 million since then.
10:19
There was also one other trade, and this, uh, this, again, just reactions to free agency yesterday, that symbolized great franchises and bad franchises, and this is a trade that will not go noticed by many.
10:30
But did you see that the Eagles and the Browns swapped backup quarterbacks? Oh, yeah. Oh, yes, I did. This represented everything to me. The Eagles send Kenny Pickett to the Browns for DTR, Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
10:42
We, d- d- uh, d- we should probably say his name once in a while, right? [laughs] For DTR and a fifth. Why are you giving the Eagles a fifth for no reason whatsoever? Why are you doing that?
10:54
And then, and Howie Roseman is just like, "Sweet, I'll take your fifth." Mm-hmm. Yeah. "Sure, I'll make that trade." But it is, it's just like- Like take advantage of desperate franchises, right?
11:02
Great franchises, bad franchises. Yeah. It just, little things like that during free agency are so, you can see it so clearly. Yeah, there's a few. We might have to continue this talk on the other side. Yeah.
11:12
But there are, some of these were, uh, like the Laremy Tunsil one too. Like, I mean, for your, for your squad, great get. Yeah. Is there something we're missing though, Houston? I have no idea.
11:21
Like, wh- is there a problem we're unaware of? I mean... That was a great tweet. You know what I've been saying all off-season? You know what C.J. Stroud needs? A worse offensive line.
11:29
[laughs] I mean, that was one of the biggest storylines of the NFL last year was, was C.J. Stroud taking a step back somehow, and now we're, now we're getting rid of good offensive linemen? Okay.
11:38
How are the Rams not shorter than the Niners- Oh, we gotta talk about that... in the West? I just pulled up those odds. Wait, what are we doing? They're not hearing the news? Ah, we'll come back.
11:46
More NFL and NBA awards next. Numbers game, Visa, the sports betting network. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network Hey, if you wanna bet smarter, start with smarter insights.
12:03
Right now you can check out articles like conference tournament previews for the ACC, Big 12, SWAC, WAC, Metro Atlantic, and Conference USA, Greg Peterson's best bets in college hoops, and later today you can check out Zach Cohen's best bets in the NBA, Jonathan Davis' best bets in the NHL, and Wes Reynolds' Players Championship preview.
12:21
Get access to all the articles on vsin.com for free. That's free, don't cost you nothing. Through Selection Sunday, that's this Sunday, vsin.com/champweek. What a day in college hoops today.
12:34
Tomorrow's where it really gets buck wild. Yeah. Do the kids still say buck wild anymore? Oh, yeah, yeah, totally. Of course they do. Yeah. Absolutely. I'm sure, sure they do. Yeah.
12:41
Um, [laughs] but, but to- How would I know? [laughs] Oh, you're a kid still. Uh, but today, man, um, we got a lot of conferences starting.
12:50
First of all, yesterday, in case you missed it, um, couple more, uh, tickets punched to the Big Dance. Troy wins the Sun Belt.
12:58
Um, Su- uh, and then s- Wofford win, no, Wofford wins the Southern as a six seed at 5-1 pre-flop odds at that conference. They are so far the longest odds to win a conference tournament thus far of the, uh,
13:11
seven auto bids that have already gotten there. Really? Yeah. What were their odds, do you know? 5-1, that's what I just said. Oh, okay. Sorry. Yeah. Yeah.
13:17
Um- Uh, Wofford making, set to make its, uh, unofficial seventh NCAA tournament appearance in the past nine years. Is that true? Based off, based off my memory. Based off your memory? [laughs] Yeah, yeah, yeah.
13:27
Today, um, Horizon League championship, Robert Morris and Youngstown State. Northeast Championship, St. Francis, uh, Pennsylvania, Central Connecticut State.
13:34
The, uh, West Coast Conference championship back at the Orleans tonight, the, the big one, I guess, in college hoops. That's a good one, yeah. St. Mary's and Gonzaga, everybody saw that coming.
13:42
Um, th- the San Francisco Dons gave them a fight, gave, uh, Gonzaga a fight for at least 35 minutes yesterday. And then the Colonials, uh, championship, Delaware versus UNC Wilmington.
13:53
This is the best story of week one in, uh, college conference tournaments. Delaware was the 12th seed in the Colonial Athletic Tournament. They were 12 and 19 before the tournament started.
14:04
That was their record this year, the Blue Hens of Delaware. Uh, and they beat Stony Brook, Campbell, William & Mary, and Towson to get to the final against UNC Wilmington today.
14:15
So everybody's a Blue Hens fan as they try to steal a bid for the Big Dance.
14:18
And then the semis in the America East, semis in the Big Sky, semis in the Southland, uh, and then the conferences that start today, Big 12, ACC, Conference USA, SWAC, Metro Atlantic, and the WAC.
14:28
Do, do you like these teams that steal bids or no? Yes. Okay. I love this. I, I- I know some people hate it. Yeah, yeah. I think this is the greatest thing about college basketball.
14:35
This is such a polarizing topic, I feel like. Oh, it's so awesome. I was like, "Jeff, who's your favorite player in the history of University of Delaware basketball?" Jeff Parlet yesterday. He goes, "Uh, Joe Flacco."
14:45
[laughs] I was just gonna say the same thing. I'm like, did Flacco play on the basketball team? No, no, of course not. I have no idea. Did he practice squad maybe? No. Fighting Blue Hens, baby.
14:53
8.5 point dogs against the Seahawks of UNC Wilmington. Can't wait for that. Back to the NFL for a second. Um, the other sort of notes, by the way, Jonathan Allen, longtime great, um- Yeah... Skin
15:06
Woofter, Washington Football Teamer- Mm-hmm... and, uh, Commodore, Jonathan Allen goes to the Vikings, three-year, $60 million deal, so the Vikings doing things there. That's a good pickup.
15:16
Um, Jonathan Allen, who did nothing ever that wasn't great in Washington, by the way.
15:20
But, uh, Adam Peters just decided, um, you know, like Johnny Newton better, wanna go youth there, and so, uh, they viewed Jonathan Allen as expendable. But that's a great pickup for the Vikings.
15:30
Big signing, re-signing for the Bucs in Chris Godwin, who is criminally underrated, and they got him for a good deal, by the way.
15:37
44 million guaranteed, 66 million over three years, which by wide receiver standards, elite wide receiver standards is, is a good deal. And then Cooper Kupp, the Rams might just have to cut him.
15:48
It's [laughs] how the mighty have fallen on that. Um, and then I don't know if you cared about this, but Najee Harris going to the Chargers which- I kinda did actually. Really? I didn't, I didn't really.
15:57
I was like, "Oh, okay. Whatever." I, okay, so he's one of those guys j- okay, it's running back, running backs, right? So I f- first we gotta, you know, put it, uh, set it up with that.
16:05
But this is a guy that, like, I expected big things from, and he seemingly disappointed in Pittsburgh, but if you go back and look what he did like every season, he was a very productive back. So- Yeah...
16:16
I'm actually interested to see what he can do with, with Harbaugh and that offense. Was he very productive? No. No, I wouldn't overly.
16:22
How many times do you think you thought or said some version of the phrase, "Jalen Warren's better than him"? [laughs] Oh, oh, multiple times. Yes.
16:29
[laughs] And N- Najee Har- or, and then Najee Harris would have one run, and you're like, "Where's that Najee Harris, like, that been at for the past couple years?" He had, he had a pretty good year last year, right?
16:37
Yeah. Great kid, but yeah, I don't know if he's... I, that didn't move the needle for me. You wanted to say something about this?
16:42
Well, yeah, just like going back to what you were talking about, kinda the windows closing and everything, I, I, there's some moves, whether I understand them or not, I respect.
16:51
And, and I think it is, it's McDonald, like, okay, we talked about the Seahawks yesterday. Did we think they were, that roster was good?
16:59
Uh, they were a good team last year, but do we really think they're a Super Bowl contender? No. So like, I re- I respect the guy that's seemingly gambling on himself, right? It's I wanna overhaul this roster- Yeah...
17:09
do things my way- No, I don't, you're right... and see how far that can go. And- I'm with you...
17:14
if it's not working, I, I've, I, I respect someone b- g- bold enough to gamble on themselves and their vision of what they think they can turn this into.
17:22
Though if you, though if you're bringing in Sam Darnold, like, what was wrong with a DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba duo at wide receiver? Like, you know, it just, it's just odd to me.
17:31
They're great, just, I mean, you're just stockpiling draft picks, right? To try to rebuild the entire team. Yeah. And then, I mean, Justin Fields is the other one, right? Like, we joked ab- we talked about it yesterday.
17:39
I kinda don't mind that move for the Jets. Like, I'm like, you know what? You never know. He still could be something. Absolutely. Yeah.
17:45
Yeah, you're still getting a young quarterback, and from his perspective, it was the, "Yeah, I'm gonna go gamble on myself in a place that actually might want me there, and not bench me right away." Yeah.
17:53
So I, just a lot of those stories it feels like going around in the NFL. And he's familiar with Gary Wilson. Yeah, right. Exactly. Yeah.
17:59
So I, I, I, I don't know, any time there's someone gambling on themselves I, I, I, I, I support that. So- I appreciate that... you're glad I brought up the NFC West odds though, huh? Because- Oh, yes...
18:09
because- I'm very glad you brought it up... someone, uh, everything we were talking about in the first segment, how, how are the Niners at even money to win the West? How?
18:16
These are the draft picks- And then the Rams are two to one. How, I, I, I still don't get that. Uh, Seahawks and Cardinals, by the way, both seven to one.
18:24
Um, and then the Niners in the NFC, in the NFC pecking order, where do the Niners fall there if we go to the NFC? Or what is it? Philadelphia's the short shot. Yeah, like you said, I don't think this really moved.
18:35
So Philly three to one, Lions plus 425, Niners seven to one, Commanders nine to one, Packers plus 950, Rams 10 to one. Yeah, I'm sorry, I don't, I- So, like, little movement there, right?
18:46
I, I, I just don't, I don't [laughs] I mean, maybe they'll prove me wrong, but it just seems like a big talent suck to still have, and my, and I mean that literally, right?
18:55
The, you know, not literally, but the- I mean, ev- I mean, I don't mean suck in terms of bad, but just that's the talent going out the, out the door, and all right, we'll see.
19:04
I mean, every move you mentioned in that opening segment, Gil, those are, uh, sure, they might not be household names to everybody, but those are significant moves for, for a team.
19:13
Those are significant losses for a team that has had a good run. Like you said, it feels like a window has closed with them. They had a lot of bad games last year, where they just...
19:22
Remember they had leads that they just forked over? Mm-hmm. Um, anyway. And they- I j- this feels, I, I mean, it just feels like this entire division's priced incorrectly, Gil.
19:31
[laughs] Like, I, I would have the Rams as a favorite over the Niners, and I would have the Cardinals shorter than the Seahawks. I mean, the Seahawks are starting over. We just went over it.
19:41
I, but we raced to bet the Bengals last year in the Central, in the A- in the AFC, where, excuse me, in the, uh, AFC North, pardon me. It's what we said during the break. I got a little old school there for a second.
19:50
Um, but we're not gonna do this with the Rams just yet. I'm excited about two to one, Gil- [laughs]... but no, I'm not. I'm gonna, I'm gonna restrain myself and not bet the, uh, Rams right now. Okay.
19:58
NBA awards, what did you wanna say here? I just wanna update the MVP race, 'cause this has, uh, gotten interesting over the weekend. Friday, Jokic had the silly game. I know you were at Indian Wells.
20:09
Did you catch the 30-20-20 game from Nikola Jokic? No, but I heard about it. Just absurd stat line there.
20:15
Um, so he does that, then it's Jokic takes money, and then SGA, uh, and, and, oh, Jokic meet up, uh, on Sunday to, uh, face each other, and then it's, okay, all this money goes back SGA's way, and now we're kinda all back where we started at SGA minus 500, Jokic plus 320.
20:33
Um, I've been trying to avoid this conversation basically for as long as possible, Gil, because if you forced me to send in a ballot, it'd be on Jokic.
20:40
However, I don't know that I can really recommend anybody betting this right now. It, it's, uh, the, it, it just seems like the writing's on the wall with MVP.
20:48
It, it has been the media narrative all, all season long of this Thunder team. And look, this is not to take anything away from SGA. This is what's always tough about these conversations, right?
20:58
Both guys are having great seasons. The Thunder are, are have, have the greatest point differential in NBA history right now for this season. He's the leading scorer in the NBA, best player on that team.
21:08
It's really hard to argue against, except for Nikola Jokic just having the best season that he's ever had in the NBA. So-
21:15
C Spackler on Twitter, expert, "Just because multiple NBA bettors and journalists think Jokic is the MVP just shows how much the pub- the betting public is ignorant of the real MVP requirements.
21:25
Must be not Jokic regardless of stats." [laughs] "Hashtag Jokic MVP not." You two are excellent, thanks. Yeah. And then, uh, I just one more on, uh, the NBA.
21:34
This is from, uh, N- ND Money, "How why do you bother handicapping NBA? No idea who's playing and zero defense. Teams are scoring 40 plus per quarter. I hate the NBA. It's unwatchable. How do you do it?
21:45
Better yet, why do you do it?" Little NBA hate from ND Money. Yeah, it's tough. I mean, look, I, I like, I get it. I'm, I'm betting it all season long. It's, uh, been profitable for me over the years. I get it.
21:55
It's not for everybody. Um, the other one I wanted to bring up was clutch player of the year. Yeah. I wanna ask Drew about this too- Oh, clutch... on the other side. Yeah.
22:02
I got back in on Trae Young a little bit yesterday. Look, Jalen Brunson did enough over, like, a month span that this might be over. It might be done.
22:09
He might have accomplished enough, and if you just look at clutch time stats, uh, his case might be overwhelming.
22:15
But Trae Young has still played more minutes, scored more points in the clutch, and if some wins start to go his way, he has a couple more m- uh, moments down the stretch, I think he's live.
22:25
I think Nikola Jokic is actually more live than he was before. He's at six to one, Trae Young seven to one in that market. I put a few more bucks in on Trae Young yesterday.
22:33
[laughs] The definition of the NBA clutch player of the year, an award given to an NBA player who, quote, "Best comes through for his teammates in the clutch," unquote. That's g- thanks for, thanks for that definition.
22:43
Very clear. [laughs] Drew Dincic on that award, and more on the other side. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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23:17
Gil Alexander, we had tweets that made it a book, best listeners in the game. Best every single day. Um, this is from Lance Schaefer. Lance Schaefer, "I've been saying since fall Rogers will go to the Vikings.
23:30
Um, he'll do what Favre could not, win a Super Bowl in Minnesota. He is that petty." [laughs] "Plus it's the best spot with that line and weapons." All right. Uh, l- as we've said on this show, yeah, maybe.
23:41
Maybe that's the landing spot. What is it down to? Minnesota, Pittsburgh, and the Giants? I guess so. And the Giants makes no sense whatsoever.
23:48
Uh, this is from Vic, "Would have never even considered going to the Burrito Bowl stand at, uh, the Orleans Arena last night if it weren't for you, Gil.
23:54
Let the people know if you have any suggestions for Thomas and Mack for later in the week." [laughs] I had the Burrito Bowl last night at the Orleans. You know what?
24:01
Not as good as I remember it Not as good as I remember it. Thomas and Mack, uh, no real standouts for me. Wyatt Tomchek might have to, uh, text me if there's something I'm missing, but- At Thomas and Mack, yeah. Yeah.
24:10
Right. For- And, uh, like you don't have a go-to spot there, do you? No, I do not. Yeah. No. Me either.
24:14
Uh, Nature on Bets, I, uh, retweeted a, uh, Matt Grissom, uh, college baseball tweet this morning from a month ago, exactly a month ago. "I love when you talk college baseball."
24:22
Also added Florida State 18 to 1 off of Grissom's power rankings. Remember Grissom gave out Virginia, Clemson, and Arkansas for, uh, teams to make the College World Series and to win it.
24:33
Those teams with a combined record of, uh, what is it? Uh, 39 and 7 out of the chute. Trip Tepper, uh, "Grissom total boss on college baseball capping. Thrilled the numbers game is giving that sport some shine.
24:46
That being said, college baseball bullpens embody the classic Nick Bogdanovich line, 'You need whiskey and a revolver to bet baseball.'" [laughs] Such a good line.
24:54
[laughs] C Spackler, just because multiple NBA bettors and journalists think you... Oh no, that's a different one. He says, "Giannis has a calf strain and he only has two MVPs.
25:02
He's my new front runner for this year's most goodest player award." He's still talking about the Jokic thing. It's bothering him. Hey, I can always get on board with, uh, Giannis being the most goodest player, okay?
25:12
[laughs] DJen Southern Gent, 'cause, well, Wes and I were talking about Dwayne Wiggins for Tony! Toni! Tone! yesterday, says, "Didn't get to share yesterday, but I moved to Oakland in 2016 for work.
25:20
First place I lived was with a couple I found on Craigslist seeking a roommate. Weird, I know, but Gil knows, tough finding affordable housing in the Bay." Yes, I do.
25:26
"The couple frequented Jack London Square, and over the years made friends with Dwayne Wiggins, had the pleasure of hanging out with him several times, and even got to hear him perform his number one hit Diary, which he wrote for Alicia Keys.
25:35
He was always humble, gracious, and a giving human being.
25:37
Sorry for the long tweet, but wanted to make sure to give flowers to a man who was so kind to me and so many others, and whose impact on music is criminally underrated." Completely agree.
25:46
Uh, I had met him a few times myself. I was not close with him, but I have friends who are extremely close with him. Always a gentleman. Um, we'll get to more tweets. Oh, one more tweet, Brian Schaefer.
25:55
"I like the moves that the Commanders are doing. The only one I don't like is Deebo. Dyami Brown, better than Deebo. I would've kept him." Dyami goes to the Jaguars, by the way.
26:02
Most important thing I've gotta say about Thomas and Mack, uh, real quick is just if the- Let's get back to that. Yeah, yeah. Yeah.
26:07
If the, if the Golden Tee, uh, game still exists there, uh, post NBA Summer League, I got the high score, so come after my high score, okay? Oh, get out. Yeah, watch out. Kelly Billin, everybody.
26:17
Drew Dincic joins us, um, not on a ski slope today. He is back in, uh, Long Beach in the LBC, co-host of both The Deep Dive and Bet The Edge podcast at NBC Sports. How you doing, Drew? I could not be better.
26:29
It's great to see you guys. It's great to be home. And, uh, yeah, it's a hell of a week, uh, for sports. You got, uh, a lot of great action in Indian Wells right now.
26:37
I'm excited to hear what you have to say about the goings-on in the desert. Oh, yeah. And, uh, yeah, it, I'm, I'm, I'm rested, I'm refreshed. Good. Uh, although it was a very physically demanding trip.
26:48
Of anyone who hasn't been to Jackson Hole, it's the most, uh, difficult, uh, ski resort in North America, surely, if not the world. Um, and, uh, yeah, got about 100,000 vertical feet in over four days. Uh, and, uh, yeah.
27:00
Look at, look at this kid. Probably, probably as good as I'll ever do in life. Good for you, man. Good for you. And there's not a, there's not a slope you won't go down, you were saying. You are, you are a fearless guy.
27:06
[laughs] Well, there was one. Corby's Couloir is this, like, very narrow, very scary 20-foot drop in, uh, that, uh, I looked at and I said, [clears throat] "Best of luck to anyone who takes this on."
27:17
Uh, otherwise, uh, the, the rest of the mountain was mine. Uh, Indian Wells, my reaction, I'm curious yours too, my reaction is, first of all, I had four disaster days to start the tournament- Mm...
27:26
in terms of betting matches. Um, so that has been, that, that was obviously not, not what I was looking for. The, the, the courts ended up being as, pretty much as slow as they always were with the new surface.
27:41
Um, players are sort of corroborating that generally. Some, some might say it's a tick sm- uh, tick faster. Uh, the balls may bounce a tick lower.
27:50
Um, but it's been an interesting tournament because there were a, there were massive upsets early. Mm.
27:55
Too massive to really predict, and then the, the, the upset range that I usually succeed on, none of those really came home. [laughs] Right? Yeah. So it was, it was interesting in that regard, and yet
28:08
here we are now in the round of 16, all of my futures are still alive. All of them. Yeah. So- Yeah... um, with the exception of Osaka, but I had Pegula in that one quarter to make up for that. So- Mm...
28:18
they're, but they're all, I mean, um, one of them had to lose anyway, so they're all ready to, you know, at least two rounds. That's a long way to go still, but they're all there.
28:25
You, sir, you, you kinda didn't dabble as much as I thought you would. No, I got, uh, Alcaraz to ship in the men's. I didn't really see any reason to go anything more sophisticated than that.
28:36
Uh, and I feel very strongly about that, that he will be the champion on the men's side. And then on the women's side, I'm doing my rollover with, uh, b- Miss, uh, Belinda Bencic. Uh, s- that's up to plus...
28:49
It's not a very big number actually. I think I'm at plus 237. Um, the big one's coming in here against, uh, uh, against Goff. If she can get Goff, then her quarter price rollover is gonna be...
29:00
And she gets Goff and then probably Keys. Um, so she's gonna be a, uh, you know, probably a four to one dog against Keys at least.
29:06
So if she, uh, can win these next two matches, that rollover is gonna be, you know, kind of in the, um, I would say the three to one, or sorry, the, uh, the 13, 14 to 1 ballpark, which is pretty nice.
29:17
Wait, did you say you thought Belinda Bencic would be a four to one dog against Keys? I would guess, yeah. Oh, come on. The way Keys is being priced right now? Yeah. Four to one? Yeah. Oh my God. She's, there's, no.
29:28
I don't- Did you see the price on, uh, on Bencic against Goff? I'm, I'm into that, by the way. Yeah. Goff is, uh, uh, fine, but not worth, you know, na- And you're giving me Bencic at plus 220? I'll take it.
29:39
I have, I haven't gotten to tomorrow yet. By the way, do we have my two picks for today? This would be a good time- Yep... to throw in my two, uh, tennis picks today.
29:44
By the way, I'm behi- I, I do not have CLV in either of these. You can get a better price than I could on either of these. Mirra Andreeva, I took at minus 115 versus Elena Rybakina.
29:54
Andreeva's a little lower in the minus money now.
29:57
And, uh, we'll go to it again 'cause we had him against, uh, Frances Tiafoe at plus 193 as a winner, and the announcers acted like it was the largest upset that has ever occurred on planet Earth.
30:07
[laughs] This is the difference between bettors and actual announcers. I'm watching, I'm like, "No, I predicted this," right? And they're like, "This is the most amazing thing that's ever happened."
30:15
I'm like, "He's," I'm like, "He's plus 193. Relax." Uh, he's plus one- [laughs] I got him at plus 170 against Tallon Griekspoor. He's around plus 180 now, so you can get him at a better number.
30:24
Uh, Watanuki, uh, coming as a quali And I believe, uh- Yeah... was he a lucky loser or did he qualify? I can't remember now. He qualified. He qualified. Yeah. Yeah, so Wozniacki coming as a quali.
30:34
So it's Andreva and Wozniacki for me. You have anything today? I agree with you on Andreva.
30:39
I took her money line, I took over 22 and a half games, I took over two and a half sets, and I took exact sco- correct score Andreva 2-1. Um- Ooh. Okay...
30:49
of those, if you said you could only have one, it would be over two and a half sets at, uh, plus 127. I think that should be closer to pick. Okay. So Andreva in a three setter for Drew.
31:00
Is that the only thing you had today? Uh, I played the games with Pegula too. I agree with you. I think she's, uh, in really good form and, uh, I like her head-to-head, you know, kind of the...
31:10
A- and you know, a lot of the head-to-head you gotta toss because it was when Pegula was kind of rising up, uh, through the ranks to become a top 10 player, whereas Svitolina was coming back from maternity leave.
31:20
And, um, and so some of those are a little bit, uh, little bit shaded.
31:24
But I do think that, uh, the, the, the recent data kind of would tell you that playing on a hard court, this has gotta be, um, a bigger price for, um, for Pegula.
31:34
Uh, I, yeah, I would've made her about minus 220, minus 215. Uh, and I laid the, uh, three and a half games. Yeah, I'm, I'm peeking at, uh, Bencic's number for tomorrow. Bencic is only a plus 114 dog against Goff.
31:46
Did you indicate that it was more than that? Oh, really? Yeah. Oh, okay. I, I thought I got a bigger number than that. Bet that two to one, man. Yeah. I was, I was- Oh, you know what?
31:53
I'm confusing my E- E- EU odds and my, uh, uh, my, my US odds. And she was 2.24 when I played her. Oh, okay. Yeah. Yeah. I was wondering. I'm like- My bad... "What are you, what in the world?" [laughs] My bad.
32:04
I wanna sh- I wanna shop at your sportsbook. My God. I was like, "What are they talking about?" Uh, okay.
32:10
It is a wild price though, because they played in Australia and Bencic was, uh, almost a, was, like, three to one in that, that match. Uh, of course, Goff won.
32:19
Uh, so and we'll see if, uh, she can get some revenge tomorrow. But, uh, yeah. Coco has had some janky performances in this tournament too, though. Oh, man, her double fault s- show in the first match she played- Oof...
32:29
I c- I have no idea how she won that. That was actually, I, I wanna say,
32:34
I don't know if I can say this with high confidence, but I'd say with medium confidence, I think that's the worst tennis match I've seen all season. [laughs] I think that's pretty good confidence.
32:43
[laughs] I think you're right. By the way, you ever, do you ever go to Indian Wells, Drew? I haven't been, I mean, I've been to the desert 5,000, 59 times. Right But never to the actual tournament, no. Neither do I.
32:53
I don't know what you're doing. You gotta go. [laughs] You gotta go. It's, it's ski season, man. [laughs] All right. I forgot who I'm talking to. This is the, this is the golden- Yeah...
33:00
this is the golden window for skiing because- [laughs] The golden window... you know, the, the, the kids are back in school, the spring break hasn't started.
33:08
Uh, and, uh, yeah, and you know, like I, I always end up skiing beginning of half of March, and then March Madness second half of March, and never make it to, never can make it to Indian Wells, but one day I will.
33:18
I forgot who I was talking to, Drew. You got life beat. [laughs] You got life figured out. You got life beat. It's a tough life, but someone's gotta do it, Gil. Yep. Uh, more with Drew on the other side.
33:25
We will get his thoughts on NBA Clutch Award, and any NBA, uh, Clutch Player Award, and any other award that he may have a thought or two on, what he's playing in the NBA.
33:33
Drew Dincic, courtesy of the Progressive guest line, on the other side. It's a Numbers Game right here at VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:39
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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34:17
We get tweets that beat me to the book. Uh, GB, New Jersey, New York, who does such a great job with, uh, tracking the college basketball formula, which once again, we updated yesterday for those who missed it.
34:26
Still the same three teams all three weeks, Duke, Auburn, and Houston.
34:30
Uh, he says, uh, to the question I'm about to ask Will Hill coming up next hour, "Who's the most recognizable team to a March Madness casual this season?" He says it's probably the Houston Cougars.
34:40
That's what his vote is for. Roster this season versus the last season is the same with the exception of, uh, no Jamal Shead. Five consecutive March Madness runs of Sweet 16 or better, same style of play.
34:51
Um, I have a different vote, which I'll get to. Uh, James Sott talking about that, uh, that fifth round, [laughs] DTR and a fifth for, uh, Kenny Pickett. He says, "Maybe this was like the Brock Osweiler type trade.
35:02
To take the massive fifth round contract of DTR, they had to include a fifth rounder." Makes sense.
35:07
Uh, NCI 95 gambler, I-95 gambler, "As a Pats fan, with all the defensive moves they made yesterday, they have to draft an offensive lineman with the fourth pick.
35:15
Maybe trade back a few slots and pick up more picks, and then draft offensive line. Please, not Travis Hunter," he says in all caps. Um, let's see here. And, um, let's see.
35:27
Uh, Prime Time @primetime_bets, "Went to dinner with some people on Saturday. Two people were talking about the coincidence that they both know Dr. Bob. Dr. Bob.
35:34
Imagine my disappointment when I found out they were talking about a local veterinarian." [laughs] That is, that is pretty disappointing. [laughs] Dr. Bob coming on the show.
35:42
Um, and, uh, Chris Heath says to Kelly, "Hate to break it to you, Kelly, but they pulled the Golden Tee game." Oh, no. Yeah. Yeah. Well, then my high score will live forever. That's what I'm gonna choose to believe.
35:53
Uh, Joe C714, "Back at the petting zoo at Indian Wells. Carlito's taking a page out of Rafa's book. He always signs for the fans every single time. Such a class act at his age."
36:02
And Brian M, "What the people need to know, did Drew have a coincidental meeting with Tom Brady while at Jackson Hole?" We go back to Drew Dincic, courtesy of the Progressive guest line, @whale_capper.
36:12
Did you see Tom Brady up there on the hill? Much like Matt Stafford, I will not be taking a job with the Las Vegas Raiders this upcoming fall, although it's always good to see Tommy out on the slopes.
36:22
[laughs] Tom, Tommy, it's always good to see you out there. Did you, uh, do any of these free agent signings trigger a bet for you? Oh my gosh, this is such a weak class, man. No way.
36:33
This is, I guess the major takeaway is it just- It's hilarious to look at the news in a macro sense and be like, "Wow, look at all those Jets quarterbacks." [laughs] They're all there. Yeah. They're all here.
36:48
Former Jets, current Jets, you name it, they're, uh, up and down the whole list. Uh, you, you know, Geno Smith, Darnold, Fields now added to the mix. Everybody's speculating about Aaron Rodgers.
36:57
Like, yeah, this is, uh... Jack Wilson got signed yesterday, yeah. It's like this is a who's who of, uh, played quarterback for the Jets is kinda stealing all the, uh, sucking all the air out of the room.
37:06
Um, I don't think the Raiders or the Seahawks are really contending either way. I, I didn't think that sort of the, the immediate outrage over the Seahawks trading Geno Smith was warranted. That was kind of silly.
37:17
Um, and honestly, I think they got maybe a, a, you know, going younger and cheaper [laughs] with Darnold is fine.
37:25
Uh, you know, I, I don't think either of those quarterbacks is really good enough to contend in a very crowded N- NFC now.
37:31
Um, I am, I'm, um, I guess I, I, I will say I was excited about what the Commanders were doing, but the more I've kinda dug in, I'm starting to get a little disappointed that they're not uti- utilizing their, their opportunity a little bit more effectively.
37:45
Um, don't know why we're bringing in, you know, injury question marks and, and, you know, guys like Bobby Wagner, who I think were part of the problem on the defense last year, but that's fine.
37:54
Um, and, uh, I guess the most interesting takeaway from any of the free agency stuff is Bears/Vikings. Um, both of those teams, I think, have done a really nice job of doubling down in building the trenches.
38:06
Um, and I guess if you get your teeth kicked in by the Detroit Lions twice, you know, twice in one season, and you know you have to go through them in the division, that's why you do that.
38:17
And, uh, I just kinda give those two front offices some, some acknowledgement for, um, you know, attacking in that direction as, you know, both...
38:25
All, all, all the big bodies that those guys are getting on the offensive and defensive lines can play, so, um, NFC North is gonna absolutely rock next year. Wow.
38:33
One, one move just coming down a few minutes ago, uh, Eagles will be trading- Mm-hmm... CJ Gardner Johnson to the Texans. Yeah, they had a little issue with CJ Gardner Johnson, right, in the locker room as well.
38:44
Um- He's a, [laughs] he's a flamboyant character. Uh, to the NBA, clutch player of the year. Your thoughts? Hmm. Kelly had a thought. What is yours?
38:53
Well, I was watching last week when, uh, Brunson went down, and, uh, when it happened, he had scored all eight points for the Knicks in overtime [laughs] at that point. And you're like, "Okay, it's over. Seal the deal.
39:07
This is, this is the performance that basically ends this market." Uh, I don't know if you've been kind of following the prices across the NBA awards. It's a fun little horse race throughout the season.
39:17
Not a lot of drama right now, um, but the Brunson injury does kind of open up the door for some drama, um, because again, if he, if he wins that, if he wins that game, if he just finishes that game, if he is healthy throughout the month of March, I think this thing is a wrap.
39:30
It is over. It is Brunson. Um, this opens up the door, though.
39:34
Uh, the, my general read on the Brunson injury situation, it looked like a grade two plus-ish to me, which, uh, I kind of ascribe to, hmm, three, maybe four weeks.
39:47
Um, then as you kinda look at the calendar, the Knicks have a bunch of important games in April, and Brunson is 10 games away from hitting his, uh, 65.
39:55
And I know that, uh, that 65 is not a threshold that matters for clutch, but it matters for all NBA.
40:02
And I think with all the other kind of key obvious guys who would get looks for first team all NBA this year, um, Brunson, to me, has a very credible case to be the fifth.
40:15
Um, and so my guess is he's probably going to, to play the 10 games needed to make that, uh, to cross that threshold, uh, which puts him back in play, like, April 1st, April 3rd, something like that.
40:27
Um, and he's gonna have some opportunity to accrue some stats in that w- time window. Now, whether or not they're clutch stats, anyone knows.
40:35
This is the absolute or the most ridiculous time of the basketball calendar in terms of effort. Um, but, uh, you know, that said, I, I think his, his case is not closed.
40:44
Um, the scarier player in the mix is certainly Trae Young, no question. Trae Young right now has a five-point lead in the clutch, and Gil, if you're wondering, how do you handicap clutch [laughs]
40:55
cl- clutch, most clutch player in the NBA? It is a very straightforward, uh, way.
40:59
You click on nba.com/stats/players/clutch.trans, uh, traditional, per mode equals total, and that just gives you the list of most points scored in the clutch that the NBA is tallying, and that's what everybody who votes on this award goes and looks at.
41:15
And right now, Trae Young has a five-point lead over Jalen Brunson. Trae Young's, the, you know, the, the dings in his case, he's barely over 500 in games played in the clutch.
41:24
He's played the most minutes in the clutch, so the fact that he has the most points isn't that shocking. Um, and his shooting in the clutch has been actually pretty poor.
41:31
Like, he's shooting 37% from the field, which is real, real rough. Um, Brunson on the other hand is shooting 52% from the field.
41:39
Brunson also has one of the most absurd usages in the clutch that I've ever seen in my life. Um, every time that the Knicks games are close, it is just the Jalen Brunson show.
41:49
Um, and, uh, you know, so I, I think people who dig in will probably still lean Brunson. Um, but, uh, the Hawks are not a very good team, and they're gonna be scuffling with the bad teams.
42:00
Uh, they have an easy schedule remaining. They're gonna get enough wins. They're probably gonna win the Southeast, which is gonna hurt.
42:05
Um, but, uh, the, um, their opportunity for them to accumulate more clutch counting stats is very, very real. Uh, so I think as long as Trae Young stays healthy, he is, uh, he is a very scary player in this market.
42:18
Right now, I would make it 50/50 between Brunson and Young. Um, really, I, well, you know what?
42:22
We'll say 45/45, and we'll carve out a 10% slice for Jokic just because, um, you know, there, there is a pretty good statistical profile for the, him there, and, uh, he was the, the heavy favorite in this market at one point.
42:34
Give the URL again, because if you go to nba.com/stats- [laughs]... /players/ /clutch-traditional, I don't get the list that I'm looking for. Well, NBA makes- I'll send you the link.
42:46
Yeah, the NBA, I'll send, I'll send you the link. It's clutch-das-dash traditional, question mark, per mode equals total- Oh, there's more... and, yeah, yeah, there is. More. [laughs] Okay, and sort equals points.
42:55
There you go. Uh, and that just, that just lists the clutch- S-... the regular season total clutch points for every player, and, um, yeah, it's, uh- Is there, is there better radio than a long URL?
43:05
[laughs] Oh, that's great. Better radio. Hey, hey, Drew, it's been a couple weeks since we've talked to you.
43:09
Uh, are you, uh, part of the, uh, the, the, the people out there that were, uh, betting Dyson Daniels', uh, most improved player, uh, over and over again, I guess, uh, last week?
43:18
I was not, but I saw that, and I had a good belly laugh.
43:20
Um, I think, again, like, yeah, like, I don't think there's much drama in here, and I also don't think you win bets for getting two second places with Dyson Daniels, so I guess.
43:29
Is there drama in any of these awards at this point? [sighs] I mean, cl- it's clutch. That's kind of the only thing. Clutch. It's the only one.
43:35
And it really just, and clutch, clutch is, is, you know, if you like, if you like drama, this is, it's for real because- Yeah... like,
43:43
you know, Jokic went, like, I wanna say close to two months barely having any clutch minutes just because the Nuggets were either winning by so much or just not competitive that, uh, he accumulated nothing.
43:54
And so you're kind of at the whim of game stay, which is fun. Any plays tonight? Uh, I, I think the, uh, I think the Bucs take care of the Pacers.
44:03
The Pacers' defense right now is in absolute shambles, and, uh, uh, I like the two and a half. Okay, there you go. Drew Dincic off the ski slopes and back on level land. Good to see you, man. Drew Dincic, @whale_capper.
44:17
Thanks for the Indian Wells pod. Again, Deep Dive and Bet The Edge, and maybe in the future, more from Drew, which we'll talk to him about next time as well. Will Hill on the other side. College hoops, numbers game.
44:30
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