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Mar 11, 2025
A Numbers Game | March 11, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | March 11, 2025 | Hour 2
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44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:08
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course [clears throat] SiriusXM channel 158. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bedell.
0:20
What's happening to my voice? [clears throat] It's a Numbers Game right here at Circa. Sorry about that, guys. It's a Numbers Game. It is. Um. [laughs] We, we have a move in the NFL. Yeah? We do.
0:29
Daniel Jones to the Colts, and to answer your question that you had during the break, apparently Joe Flacco's still on the roster, so.
0:35
Joe, Joe Flacco, Sam Ehlinger, and now Daniel Jones to compete with Anthony Richardson. Daniel Jones, Colt.
0:43
I mean, it makes sense if you're gonna ru- if you're g- whatever offense you're gonna run for Anthony Richardson, we saw Daniel Jones get used far more in the running game last year for the Giants.
0:51
Not to say that's exactly what you should be doing with Daniel Jones, but at least you don't have to change the plays up, uh, a ton between the two.
0:58
Cut to a shot of Daniel Jones, uh, playing meaningful playoff c- potential contention games late in the season. Eduardo, we get tweets of beating the book, Htown88, "Texans with another O-line trade.
1:09
Extreme culture change in that O-line room. Doesn't matter how much you get paid or where you were drafted." Green was a first-round pick. I think he's talking about Kenyon Green. Mm.
1:18
RichPSM, "100% agree with you, Gil, yesterday when you said, uh, this. I will never be used to Maryland in the Big Ten. Their ACC basketball history includes the 1974 Maryland-NC State ACC championship.
1:29
In my opinion, the greatest game ever, and Maryland was the greatest team to not make the field due to the ridiculous small field size." People forget.
1:36
I'm, I'm a little too young for '74, but people don't understand, like, growing up in the DC area in the '80s, college bask- nothing was bigger than college basketball.
1:46
We used to go over to, like, our friends' houses to watch Duke-Carolina, or if Maryland, like, if Albert King and Buck Williams were playing Virginia. Yeah. Like, it was such a big deal. Make Georgetown hoops.
1:55
Geor- and then the Big East, Georgetown. So it was the middle of Big East and ACC country. It was just unbelievable. And, um, yeah, Maryland's in the Big Ten, and it just [laughs] it blows our mind.
2:05
James Sott, "I compared that Coco Gauff match that Drew was talking about to my non-tennis friends, and I was watching Titans-Browns with Levi [laughs] with Levi's, Billy Levi's at DTR at quarterback.
2:15
It was so hard to watch." [laughs] And then Justin D telling me, "Not sure about Circa, but DraftKings has the most April wins market up already." Oh, there we go. Oh, [laughs] I got work to do. I love that market.
2:28
I didn't see, yeah, I don't see it anywhere in Vegas. I looked. No Circa, no William Hill. Nothing. Man, this is... Yeah, they added, [laughs] wow, they added a lot. They added a lot.
2:39
Start of season, race to 10 wins, 5-0 start. Yeah. A team last to lose. Uh, let's see. There are April win totals? That's what we're talking about here. Oh, April win totals. Win totals I believe- Oh...
2:53
is what I'm looking at. Oh, not most wins? Oh. No, there's, like, groups of teams to hit 15, 20 ga- 20 win.
2:59
I, there's a ton, yeah, a ton of options on the DraftKings- A numbers game where we give out really long URLs, and Kelly scrolls through DraftKings menu. No, I was right. I finally got you.
3:06
There are win totals for April- Yeah... for every team this year.
3:09
Uh, also Sean Fox plays, "The problem with clutch award in the NBA is there is prevailing thought that this will be a de facto second place MVP award, similar to what most outstanding player just is in the NBA non-quarterback award.
3:19
Gio- Jokic didn't win MVP, so maybe he'll be given clutch. No, um, no defense," no defense, I think he says, "and voters clueless." You know, I'm trying to have... navigating through his tweet.
3:30
Anyway, that's an interesting point, that clutch plays could be the, the offensive player award e- equivalent of the N- the NFL Offensive Player of the Year award sort of depository.
3:39
If you don't win MVP, here's your award kind of thing. Yeah, it could be a little bit. Could be a little.
3:42
I mean, they usually hang on those clutch stats a fair amount, but if there's a tiebreaker, right, you could see it going that way. Will Hill joins us. He's the, uh, host of the Shoulda Bet More podcast.
3:51
That's his podcast, and he also stars of the Megapod.
3:55
The March Madness edition will drop this coming Monday, where of course he famously called FAU to the Final Four a couple years back, and he's part of, uh, Chris Falica's Beare bets empire over there at Fox Sports.
4:06
He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive guest line at not the, with two Es, at not the Will Hill. How you doing, man? Gilly, what's going on? I'm great. Uh, the best betting week of the year.
4:16
We are about an hour or so away from games starting, and once they start, they never end. I, I was up deep into the night, late night wa- uh, watching them. So, uh, I love this week.
4:25
N- the next, like, 10, 12 days is just nonstop basketball. You get a little breather, then you get the NCAA tournament, uh, starting here. So i- it just, it's so good.
4:34
I'm a little jealous 'cause I'm not in Vegas, and you, Fez, Wishnev, you guys are hanging out, you're playing tennis, you're having sleepover parties. [laughs] I wish I was there, but, uh, this is the best. Sleepover.
4:44
I didn't get invited to the sleepover. Do you, you see the thing with that? You know the Chappelle thing where like- Making pillow forts...
4:48
Chappelle did this bit where his friends were like, "You didn't, you didn't go to the Diddy freak offs?" He was like, "No." And they were like, "Yeah, sure." And then he was like, "And then it dawned on me, I'm ugly."
4:56
[laughs] I must be ugly. Um, uh, it's not quite the same thing, but anyway, it triggered in my head. All right, uh, Will, uh, what golf course are you playing on today, by the way? That's a beautiful outfit.
5:06
What are you doing? What's going on? That's funny. That's funny. It's a good look. I, I, I kind of rotate the v-neck. You wanna throw a little collared shirt on and, uh, I don't know, m- mix it up a little.
5:14
By the way, breaking news, Jim Sorgi re-signs with the Colts to throw in in that quarterback competition- [laughs]... with, uh, with Daniel Jones and with, uh- Scott- Boy, that's a, that's a group right there.
5:22
Daniel Jones, Anthony Richardson, and whoever else they got. Jesus. Scott Tolzien. Flacco. Scott Tolzien is, uh, is next. Uh, okay.
5:29
Before we get to your, your bets here in college hoops with conference tournaments that are, that have yet to start here, and anything you might have in individual games tonight, 'cause there's a bunch of games, um, with some of the conferences starting and others finishing, and sort of semis as well in, in other conference tournaments.
5:43
Uh, I was sitting with Parlay and Chrissy yesterday at The Orleans.
5:46
We're watching the West Coast Conference championship, and Parlay got, Parlay and I got into this side conversation where, uh, where I just sort of started
5:52
thinking of stuff as we're watching these games, 'cause they were blowouts. And one of them was, I think of my friend Tommy in DC. He's my oldest, he's my longest friend. He's a casual college basketball fan.
6:01
He represents the community of college basketball fans, in quotes, that shows up for March Madness. They don't know anything else.
6:08
What is the most familiar team, this is a non-betting question, the most familiar team to the casual fan who just shows up, especially in this era of transfer portal
6:19
The most familiar team in terms of, like, guys you can name on- Yes... current rosters? More-- The most players you can name- Ooh... in a starting lineup. We had one- That is-...
6:28
vote earlier, we had one vote earlier for Houston. Mine was Alabama. That's, that's-- I, so I was gonna say that, yeah. Houston or Bama. That is a great freaking question. I'll give a weird one.
6:38
I'll say UConn just because I think it's, like, by the way, a 30-way tie between, you know, 30 teams of guys that can name one, one guy on each team. Yes.
6:45
Just because Karaban was on the team last year, and we've seen them in the final four in the championship. That's right. So if you're watching- He counts...
6:50
March Madness, you've seen Karaban win two titles in a row, and maybe you can name one other guy.
6:55
But other than that, I mean, we watch this stuff all day and night, and we know trends of these teams and how they play and, uh, their style. But we can- e-even us as- Yes... we're gonna watch nonstop.
7:04
I mean- I was just talking to Dave-... once you get past, like, two or three guys, it, it's really, really hard. I was just talking to Dave Ross before the show.
7:09
I said, "We bet m- we have millions of college basketball bets every day. Do we know rosters at the end of it? Probably not." So, so I think the Houston tweet's a great point.
7:18
When you first brought it up, I thought Bama, but only stylistically. It's not like I could name anybody more. No. Oh, but do people remember Nelson from last year? They obviously remember Sears.
7:27
I shouldn't say obviously, but I think they remember- Yeah... Sears, right? Hol- you know, I just think it, it-- Anyway, the point of the question is, good God, like, if you're just showing up, you-- These teams are...
7:38
I just compared it to, like, growing up in the '80s where, you know, Ewing's playing Jordan and Olajuwon and all that. Obviously, that's a, a, a era gone by. It's just so different now.
7:48
Th- that Dream Team documentary I recommended to you, and I think on a numbers game a couple weeks ago, it made you realize that it's the We Beat the Dream Team documentary.
7:54
It's, it's Mashburn, it's Penny Hardaway, it's Bobby Hur-- It makes you realize, man, those guys were stars, absolute, like, mega stars before they ever stepped into the league. Absolutely. All right, let's get to it.
8:04
Any game plays today? Let's start with that. I actually like the one that tips at, uh, 9:30 your time, Oak State and the under.
8:12
I, I kinda like both of them, and I, I don't-- I, I think that's sort of a correlated parlay because if Oak State covers the seven and a half, it, it's probably gonna cover because it's a close game, and the closer the game, the less likely for fouls.
8:22
I just think Oak State, uh, has played better. They're, they're good on defense. They, they are not good on offense. These teams actually just played on Saturday. Oklahoma State shot 78% from three.
8:31
I think seven of nine from three, so, uh, you can throw that out. They, they are not a good offensive team. I just think this is a close, ugly, low-scoring game. So I will, uh, I will take the points. I'm surprised.
8:42
This opened six, and it's gone the other way. I, I thought even the six was maybe a touch too high. So maybe I'm just completely missing things with this Oak State team.
8:49
But I, I think this is a close, kind of a grind-it-out game. So I like Oak State plus seven and a half, and I do like the under as well. And, and first half under 65 and a half.
8:56
Again, this is an early tip time, nobody in the building, no energy in the building. We kinda make fun of Fez 'cause he loves these- Loves them... early tip time trends. Loves it.
9:04
But, uh, they, they tend to work out more than they don't, I have to admit. Yeah, that kid knows something. Uh, anything else in terms of individual games today? No. Okay.
9:12
Um- Let's go to- I'm not, I'm not, I'm not oppo- Again, another Fez show. I'm not opposed to the, the, the title game unders. I think those aren't bad. I mean, the F- the Furman Wofford one was an outlier.
9:21
The shot making in that game was just incredible. I mean, there was, like, a...
9:23
And, and, you know, I, I was on the under at halftime because they were just shooting the ball so well, and I, I jumped in live on the under again late.
9:30
They, the, some of the shot making, like, an eight, 10-minute stretch was insane in that game. And I actually had Furman plus 750 to win that tournament, so I'm a little bitter they let that get away.
9:38
But for the most part, these title game unders are, are, are decent looks. But man, the, uh, as much as we're excited about these games, the, the games themselves are not that great today.
9:47
[laughs] But, uh, it's just the volume of games is so exciting. And tomorrow the volume gets ratcheted up even further.
9:52
By the way, four championship games today, Horizon, Northeast, West Coast Conference, obviously Gonzaga, St.
9:56
Mary's, and then our favorite, the Colonial with Delaware, the Blue Hens of Delaware, uh, 12 and 19 before the tournament and now trying to steal a bid as they play UNC Wilmington today. All right.
10:05
I, I didn't listen to the first hour of the show 'cause I was doing, uh, my, my pod. I don't know if you mentioned this. They, these teams played 10 days ago. UNC Wilmington won by 30.
10:13
It was the 11th loss in 12 games for Delaware, and now they rematch the title game. [laughs] That's... Let's go. Uh, the con- Of course I mentioned that, Will. Yeah. Kelly- You think that would've gotten past me?
10:23
Come on, man. Kelly was all over it. Jeez, man. Um, conference tournament plays, outrights, what you got? We're running out of time here. I'll throw a, a bomb out there. First of all, I like Texas Tech plus 425.
10:34
I think they match up well with Houston. I think that's a really good team. I think the list of teams that could win it all is very short, like four, and then you start to get to, like, the Texas Tech, Iowa State.
10:42
Iowa-- Texas Tech is, is a team that to me is on the fringe, but won at Houston without one of their best players who got ejected early, and almost won without a couple starters a, a couple Mondays ago.
10:52
Rutgers at 200 to 1 to win the Big Ten. They're probably not gonna win. They're 200 to 1 for a reason, five wins in five days, but they do have two lottery picks.
11:00
They start with a USC team they just beat a, a week or so ago, and then the, the path after that is Purdue and Michigan. Michigan beat them twice by four points, one on a buzzer beater.
11:10
Could they look up with their NBA talent and get to a, a q- a semifinal, a quarterfinal?
11:14
And, and you, you'd probably have to get to a semi to be able to hedge, but I thought Rutgers at 200 to 1, if you're just looking to throw pizza money on, on a real long shot, I thought that one was interesting.
11:22
Oh, let's go. Ace, Bailey, Dylan, Harper. Oh, oh, by the way- I mean it... before that, five-second answer. Uh, the, one of the other things, by the f- I was spitballing with Parlay.
11:30
Is there a Steph Curry/Ja Morant mid-major-ish kind of player in this tournament coming up? In March Madness we're referring to. I don't think so. [sighs] Yeah. Okay. Yeah. We didn't come up with anybody either.
11:41
Will Hill, everybody, @NotTheWillHill, March Madness Megapod on Monday. Thank you, Will.
11:47
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the- Sports Betting Network. Back on a numbers game live from Circa, Gil Alexander, Kelly Billingsley.
12:04
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12:42
Juice Reel, that's R-E-E-L. Download Juice Reel today. My, my team looked into this, by the way. Oh, your team? If, if you punch in any combination of what we went over yesterday- It works? It'll, it'll work. Really?
12:52
Yeah, yeah. Oh, wow. My team's Rob Moreno, that's it. I didn't know you had a team. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he, uh, he is a guy who, uh, let's put it this, he has many lives. He comes here and he gives us soccer plays.
13:04
He moves the chains, uh, when you're betting accounts, when he's talking about soccer. But we also mentioned he's the, uh, the host of the Expected Value podcast, and he also, uh, is, uh, you know, I don't...
13:14
I can't remember what his title is. He'll tell me right now, but he works at True Media Networks. He's like the Director of Content. I don't know what his title is. We'll find out now.
13:22
Paul Carr, everybody, @paulcarr, C-A-R-R, who, uh, spreads analytics, by the way, courtesy of Progressive Gasline, who spreads analytics throughout sports. Uh, he's in Scottsdale, Arizona. Cactus League.
13:34
No, that's Grapefr- no, it's Cactus. Yeah. That's right. Cactus League. Got it. He joins us now from his hotel room. How you doing, man? I'm good. I'm good. I was waiting for the Office Space line.
13:41
What would you say it is you do here? [laughs] What do you say you do here? That's one of the great [laughs] lines said that when they were going through each employee. "What do you say you do here?"
13:53
Um, such a quotable movie. Office Space, so great. Um, what do you say you do here? Uh, Senior Director of Media and Business Operations. Oh, there you go.
14:03
So overseeing the media side and help out with everything else is basically it. That's a, that's a very big title. That's fancy. How was I supposed to remember that? It's too long. Yeah. I don't know.
14:10
Did you get to make your own title, Paul? That sounds like one you made. Yeah, pretty much. Yeah, yeah, okay. [laughs] Yeah.
14:14
We're small enough that it's kinda, "Uh, well, here's your level, and then throw some words after it and we'll call it good." What is it that you say you do here? Um, okay.
14:22
Tell, but so you're go- you're at, uh, you're at the Grapefruit... Excuse me. I go on, I can't get it right. You're in the Cactus League. You're in Arizona. Yeah.
14:27
You're in Scottsdale, where the Giants, by the way, do their thing. Yeah. Um, are there still teams, so for those who don't know, True Media Networks does what specifically?
14:36
We make analytics websites for teams in bunch of sports, baseball being number one. So we take all their data. You know, they have data from internal stuff.
14:44
They have the stat cast data, your traditional data, other third parties, and we turn it into one easy-to-use website, uh, to generate reports, to do player developments.
14:51
They can find whatever stats and graphics they're looking for. So we're really just like a, we're about saving time, and it also all connects to video and so it makes their lives a whole lot easier.
14:59
And, you know, a coach who may not know how to code or program but can use a website can find what he's looking for about, you know, what does this guy throw on three-two counts- Wow...
15:08
against lefties with somebody on base, and things like that. What team wouldn't want that? Teams that want to do it internally- Ah... and do it their own way.
15:15
So there are, I think, four teams we don't have at the moment. We have 26 of the 30 on the NL side. Really? Oh, wow. Uh, can you tell us the four teams, what they rhyme with? Could you tell us?
15:25
No, you can't do this then? Uh- No? Okay. I will say you could probably guess a couple of them based on teams wanting to do it their way. The Tampa Bay Rays wanna do it their way kinda thing?
15:35
I cannot either confirm or deny that. Okay. I was just curious. I can tell, I, he doesn't tell. They're one, they're one of the four. I'm deciding they're one of the four.
15:42
[laughs] Um, I guess that's how they do things, Tampa Bay. Um, okay. Well, congratulations on all that success. If it's 26 out of 30 in baseball, what is it in football? Football, our business is a little different.
15:54
We have a league-wide deal, so every team has access to the site. Ah, got it.
15:58
Of those, I would say about a third of them use it pretty regularly or heavily, a third of them may have, like, one or two people that use it, and a third of them haven't logged in- [laughs]... or something like that.
16:09
Oh, man. That's, uh, that's like when I used to go to Sloan, uh, MIT Sports Analytics Conference. Right.
16:15
And, uh, Matthew Berry, who, uh, famously is a fantasy guy but also a Skins fan, I would always say to him, I'd be like, "Are you upset, as, like, angry as I am that the Skins aren't here?"
16:22
He would think you'd be like, "Yeah, matter of fact, I am." [laughs] Just no interest in, in those years. Uh, okay. The Champions League. Yeah. We are now on the second leg of the round of 16, correct? That's right.
16:35
All right. That's right. First leg last week, second leg this week. How'd the first leg go?
16:38
Uh, went one and two, hit a 105, so yeah, I think I got unlucky on one of the games where I think I had the handicap right and didn't get there, but that's okay. Explain- We'll move on...
16:47
explain to the uninitiated, if you would, the quirks of second legs. Yeah. Second legs are the weirdest thing to bet, I think, because, uh, it's aggregate score over the two legs.
16:57
So we'll use, for example, Aston Villa and Bruges. Aston Villa won the first leg three to one, so Aston Villa will advance on aggregate score unless they lose by more than two goals.
17:08
So if Aston Villa loses this one one-nil, they don't really care. I mean, they're at home, so there's a pride factor, but they'd still go through.
17:16
So it makes for some wonky lines, uh, which I will touch on a couple of those. These, they just look weird because they're not just a straight measure of who's better than whom.
17:26
It also factors in what they need to advance. So you get some funny looking lines in this leg. By the way, before we get to your picks, um, I, it sort of begs the question and the previous talk we were just having.
17:36
Does True Media Networks, have you, have you guys ever thought of approaching Premier League or other- Oh, we do soccer, yeah. You do? We have about 80, 80 soccer clubs worldwide. Oh my God. Yeah. Interesting.
17:46
Majority in Europe, but also some MLS, Mexico, South America. You buried the headline, or I buried the headline. Yeah. That's amazing. Oh, good for you. Okay. To, uh, today we have a couple plays.
17:56
Tomorrow we have another one. Let's start with today's. What do you got? Today. Okay, so Liverpool, PSG. This is a good example where Liverpool won the first leg one-nil in Paris, so a draw will put Liverpool through.
18:08
That's all they need. So Liverpool, I like Liverpool to win at plus 125. I've seen some plus 130s out there this morning. That's obviously better.
18:17
Uh, I, I just don't think Liverpool will play for the draw at home, and that's, th- if this were a normal line, Liverpool would be, I don't know, minus 120, something like that, to win the game.
18:29
But you get a really good price here because they don't have to win to advance. And, and obviously, that is something, but Liverpool played very defensively in the first leg.
18:38
They were out, actually outshot 27 to two, but won the game one-nil.
18:43
It was the definition of what we in soccer like to call a smash-and-grab job, where they just convert their one of their two chances and, and take the win and run home. Uh, but they were a little bit better than that.
18:53
They gave up a ton of shots, not a ton of high-quality shots. So I, I just can't see Liverpool trying to park the bus and play for a draw at home. It's just not what they do.
19:03
They've scored two g- goals in I think every home game since September, so I like Liverpool to win a plus 125 here.
19:09
Okay, so again, based on Champions League round of 16, uh, format, Liverpool does not need to win, but you are overriding that based on talent- Right... or just their nature. Yep, absolutely.
19:20
Plus 125, too good of a price to pass up on Liverpool win. All right. And I'll reiterate, this is a 90-minute bet. Yes.
19:27
So if pur- ch- yeah, it really wouldn't come into play this time, but, so I guess if they draw and Liverpool goes through, you don't win this bet, 'cause this is a 90-minute, three-way money line bet.
19:37
90 minutes plus, uh, eh, plus added time bet. Right, right. Not extra time- Not extra time... just like overtime. Added time.
19:43
Just the, the injury time, the added time they put at the end of the, the second- We, we're, we're never, we're never wrong going over soccer basics to, to new audiences, so yeah.
19:51
Everybody has done th- I've made these mistakes, where you think you win a bet and you lose, or vice versa, and then y- the cash does or doesn't show up in your account and you realize what happened.
20:00
Th- the time they're talking about when they says 90 plus five, and you're like, "Well, what does that mean?" Yeah. How many minutes exactly, Gil? We ever gonna get that- Eh...
20:07
we ever gonna get a 30 for 30 on, uh, added time in soccer, where we're gonna figure this out? Uh, I don't think so. Yeah.
20:12
It goes around every once in a while where they talk about why don't we just stop the cl- the clock every time the ball goes out of play,
20:19
but then you'd really ha- then the game would really only be like an hour of in-game time, and it, it's, it, I don't think it's gonna happen. Yeah. But it would be interesting.
20:26
Kelly, would you like to pronounce the next matchup between, uh- Let's go... Inter Milan and, uh- Inter Milan and Fire Nudes are back at it. [laughs] Feyenoords. Feyenoord.
20:36
Uh, yeah, I, I don't think Feyenoord's gonna do much here. Uh, it took both teams to score no in the first leg, and that got home. That was a pretty easy win. Doing it again here. Both teams to score no, minus 135.
20:47
Uh, can probably find a little bit better out there. Uh, Inter just dominated that first leg.
20:51
Or, or really, Feyenoord, Feyenoord wasn't bad in about two-thirds of the field, but they generated almost no s- real scoring chances. And Inter Milan, solid defense. They'll do the same thing here.
21:01
Inter won that first leg two-nil. I expect this to be more low scoring, a one-nil type of game for Inter, but either way, I don't think Feyenoord particularly is gonna score.
21:10
But you play both teams to score no, even if Inter loses this one one-nil, they'd still go through, so that's another, uh, scoreline that you get here. Okay, so today Liverpool to win, plus 125 versus PSG, shop around.
21:21
And then Inter, Inter Milan and Feyenoord, the Dutch, uh, both teams to score no, minus 135. So you need a nil somewhere in this point. You need a nil. At least one nil. All right. Tomorrow, what you got? Tomorrow.
21:36
All right, uh, Club Brugge, double chance versus Aston Villa, uh, plus 130 is the price I have. Uh, had Brugge in the last week in the first leg, and they really outplayed Villa for about 70 minutes.
21:47
Villa got one goal, just kind of got through traffic. Uh, Brugge hit the woodwork. Uh, and then Villa got, what, did I think they got an own goal and then a late penalty to make it, uh, look worse than it was.
21:57
So Brugge also went to Man City earlier in the season and played them very well on the road. So I like the Brugge double chance at plus 130. And, and again, the scoreline is coming into play here. Villa won 3-1.
22:09
So if, if Villa's down one-nil late in the game, they don't care. They're still going through. Uh, they're probably more likely not to go for a goal, 'cause they just wanna play defensively.
22:19
So Brugge win or draw, uh, either one of which could easily see Villa through anyway. That's what double chance means, boys and girls, win or draw. Club Brugge to play tomorrow, plus 130 versus Aston Villa.
22:31
Uh, three-pack as always from Paul Carr. Paul, enjoy Scottsdale. Thank you. It's lovely this time of year. Oh, yes, it is. Paul Carr, everybody, @paulcarr, C-A-R-R, on Twitter.
22:41
And again, also the host of the Expected Value podcast. Check it out. Dr. Bob picks up where he left off yesterday, college basketball conference trends and to whom it applies next.
22:50
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN free until Selection Sunday.
22:57
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23:14
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23:25
That's V-S-I-N.com/champweek. We get tweets at Beatting The Book, always appreciate it. Brian M., "For soccer added time," he says, "draw a card out of a deck.
23:37
The first diamond/heart is how many minutes they'll tell you, uh, they're going to play. The first spade/club is how many minutes they'll actually play." [laughs] I guess.
23:47
It, it is a, uh, it, it is a f- I don't, I don't wanna use the word fun, 'cause it's not always fun, but tr- talk about the added sweat.
23:54
If you're, if you're home, Gil, and you just need this game to be over, and it's like, "Uh, when, uh, when, uh, when is this gonna happen? It, it says six. Why are we at 97 minutes plus right now? Like, I, I'm home.
24:06
Just end this game." He said face cards are worth five minutes alone. You get a face card, five minutes. Um, Dell, mind the gap radio. Don't forget to wish Dustin a happy 40th. Is it Dustin Sweetelson's 40th?
24:16
Wow, I did not know that. Happy birthday, Dustin. All right. If that's true. We don't know if it's true, but happy birthday anyway. It was just Patrick's birthday like a week ago, too. Yeah.
24:22
Well, you know, you know what they say about people. Their, their clocks sync. No, is that something else? I'm sorry. It's apparently it's something else. Uh, primetime, Cowboys underscore Cubs one.
24:30
Yo, chief, I have to agree with your pick as Houston being the most identifiable college basketball team. That wasn't my pick. That was a, that was a listener's pick. Mine was Alabama.
24:39
He says, "Reed Get," [laughs] he said, "Reed Gettys, Michael Young, Drexler, and that Akeem kid, iconic." [laughs] Congrats on, uh, Washington winning day one of free agency.
24:51
Hang that banner next to those one after Bruce Smith and Dion were picked up. Hey, that was a different organization. Sorry about that.
24:59
Um, ladies and gentlemen, uh, yesterday we got a tweet after the show, uh, I wanna say it was from Steve the Proxy, uh, who said, uh, "You know, for a guy who, uh, loves college basketball so much, you'd think he'd play the shot clock better," talking about Dr.
25:11
Bob's appearance. But really it was our fault. Yes. And I'll take full responsibility. I know that Bob is thorough when he talks college hoops, and so I ran him into the wall.
25:19
It's all my fault, so we give him the mulligan. Ladies and gentlemen, Dr. Bob from, uh, DrBobSports on Twitter, drbobsports.com. That's drbobsports.com, predictive sports modeling pioneer talking college hoops with us.
25:32
How you doing, Bob? I'm doing all right. Glad to be back. You know, it's just my way of getting on your show back-to-back days. That's right. That's my goal. No, I, I really appreciate you doing it.
25:42
And I did the whole bad radio form where I asked him on air, "Hey, will you come back tomorrow?" And he's like, "Uh, sure." [laughs] That's a good point. We always blame it on, on us, Gilb. Yeah.
25:50
But yeah, maybe Bob just did want... He knew how we were gonna play that. It, it's the same trick you use like we go to, we go to Osha Thai food one day. He's like, "See you here tomorrow?" [laughs] I, I, I guess.
26:00
Yeah, okay. Bob and I went to this Thai place in San Francisco maybe 300 times together- That's great [laughs]... back in the day. Uh- Three times a week. Yes. [laughs] Uh- See you tomorrow? See you tomorrow.
26:12
Kinda tired of it. Sure. It was an interesting period in our lives, let's put it that way. Um, okay. Bob, let us pick up where we left off yesterday. For those who didn't listen, this is...
26:22
So Bob is a, a great handicapper in multiple sports.
26:25
But this con- conference basketball season, these two weeks, are really big with him, and he's always done very, very well, and he, 'cause he has, in addition to just his model that he does, uh, he has something called, uh, you know, something that we refer to as trends.
26:39
We're not really a trends show, but sometimes trends mean something. And Bob has a database, uh, technical analysis, another way that he calls it, of things that are tried and true through the years.
26:48
So Bob, uh, I give the floor to you where you wanna go next with this. Yeah, like I said, I mean, our plays are model based, but I do layer on the situational or trends or with a technical analysis on top of it.
27:01
It keeps me off some plays. But in the conference tournaments, there are so many good situations.
27:06
I'm not gonna give those away, but I'll give s- away some general ideas, uh, that I do tend to play some of these angles, uh, if, as long as the line is fair, and it's proven to be really good over the years.
27:17
It's 56% in conference tournament play over 17 years and over 700 plays. It's a little bit better than my normal win percentage in college basketball.
27:26
Um, so last night I think I gave out Idaho, which, which won straight up as a dog. Um, that didn't apply to any angles, but there are some today that I like both in the model and apply to some angles.
27:37
I talked about immediate revenge yesterday.
27:39
I think I got to that one, where teams played each other, uh, in the, in the previous, the last game of the regular season, and they're both meeting in the first game of the conference tournament, and immediate re- revenge on neutral courts is 59% against the spread over many, many years in the conference tournaments.
27:55
And it works best as long as the team come with the, with the immediate revenge is at least a 200 or better, or greater than 200, uh, win percentage in the conference, so they can't be a really crappy team.
28:05
And those are 101, 62 and five against the number over the years. And today there's Cincy and TCU, so two of them that apply. Cincy just lost to Oklahoma State, and they're minus six and a half right now.
28:15
I think they'll get, uh, get that back, and I like that one as far as value and the, and a, and a good angle. And TCU's another one. They're minus two and a half against Colorado. They just lost to Colorado.
28:25
Colorado historically is a horrible team away from home, much worse away from home than they are at home. Uh, and TCU is immediate revenge and, and the model liked them as well.
28:35
So Cincy and TCU are a couple plays that I made today, not based on the immediate revenge angle, but it certainly, uh, doesn't hurt.
28:41
Um, we talked about single revenge favors the two or more being 59% on over 400 games going back many years. [clears throat] There's a couple I wanna talk about today.
28:50
[clears throat] One is in general, conference tournament, teams that enter the conference tournament off a loss tend to perform relatively better than teams coming off a win.
28:59
So if you got a team off a loss against a team off a win, just blind, and this is 2,000 games going back 30 something years, it's 53%.
29:08
Now, that's not enough to play a game just 'cause a team's off a loss and other team's off a win, but it is worth something.
29:13
So maybe if you're a power ratings guy, maybe add half a point to a point if you got a team coming off a loss versus a team coming off a win.
29:21
And the bigger the loss and the bigger the win, the, the margin, the better it gets.
29:25
In fact, teams coming off a loss of six points or more are 58 and a half percent against the number against teams coming off a win of six points or more. Hmm.
29:33
Uh, there, there are three of those, and that's 900 games going back to 1991, 58 and a half percent. And that's Cincy again, TCU again, and utep, which I also play for o- for other reasons.
29:44
Um, so those three are, are three that I like today based on not only the, the model, but also a little bit of support with the, uh, with the situation or trend.
29:53
Um, there's some other ones I wanted to talk about that I've talked about in the past. This one doesn't apply to any of today, but one bid conferences, teams like Drake or UC San Diego, their tournament's coming up.
30:03
Teams that have dominated their conference, but probably still need to win the conference tournament to get into the, get into the field.
30:09
Those teams tend to be pretty good l- as long as they're laying 12 or less in their tournament. They tend to cover those spreads, especially in the final, uh, which we saw with Drake. They just beat Bradley.
30:20
UC San Diego's coming up. They're gonna be one of those teams.
30:23
So any team with a, any number one seed with a conference win percentage of 900 or better, those teams are 57% against the spread laying up to 12 points going back 30 something years.
30:32
So those are sort of the one big conference, you know, it works best with the one big conferences, but it applies to even major conferences if you've got a, a favorite of 12 or less that, that won, a number one seed that won 90% or more of their conference games.
30:45
Those tend to be, tend to be pretty good, especially if facing a team that was less than 75% in conference play. So as long as they're facing a mediocre to bad team, those teams tend to cover.
30:54
Uh, speaking of bad teams, um, I've given out this one before.
30:58
Teams that are really, really bad maybe give up a little bit at the end of the regular season, but now it's conference tournament time, like, "Okay, we've got a chance." They feel like they've got a renewed enthusiasm.
31:08
Teams that won less than 15% of their conference tournament games are 152 and 113 against the spread in the conference tournament. Like I said, it's not something I play automatically.
31:18
It's not strong enough to, to play on automatically.
31:21
But, but if a, you got a really crappy team that's been horrible in conference all year, less than 15% win percentage in conference, don't look to play against them, uh, would be my advice. Maybe look to play on them.
31:32
So, uh, that's, uh, you know, unless they're playing another really crappy team. It works best if the opponent is 400 or better in conference, and maybe you overlooking that, that, uh, really bad opponent.
31:43
In that case, those, uh, bad teams are 105 and 65 against, uh, the number if they're facing a team that was 400 or better in conference. So that's a situation to look for. Don't go against it.
31:54
Uh, the other one I like is another similar to that one, teams coming off two really bad games, two losses of more than 10 points in their, in their most, in, in their most recent two games.
32:02
If they lost both games by more than 10 points, they tend to rebound a little bit, uh, maybe re-energized by the fact it's the conference tournament and they can start over again.
32:10
Those teams are 106, 66, and one against the spread as long as they're facing a team coming off a win. Like I said, it's one of those loss versus win angles, and that's just a subset of that.
32:18
So those are some of the angles that I, you know, I've got much, much better [laughs] angles than that that I use in the conference rooms. These are ones like don't go against any of these.
32:26
I wouldn't necessarily bet on them just for the sake of the angle 'cause they're not necessarily strong enough.
32:30
But it's just kind of things to keep an eye on and maybe add to whatever else you, uh, ever else you're doing. I love it. Um, and again, you are on the two, the two early Big 12 games.
32:42
You're all, you all are, you are on Cincinnati and, uh, and, uh, UTEP, um, or excuse me, TCU. Uh, TCU. TCU. Yeah, Cincinnati, TCU. And then in the conference- I'm also on UTEP, yeah.
32:52
Yeah, and then Conference USA you are on UTEP. But the Cincinnati and TCU applies to two of those that you just mentioned. Okay. Yeah. Yeah, they do. Yep. Okay.
32:59
And then of course there's subsets which, uh, Bob will keep closer to the vest. But that, that's awesome.
33:03
Really appreciate that, and this is a great segment for people to sort of, again, you can use the VSiN app and re-listen to it by going into the Numbers Game past episode.
33:12
So just do this date, uh, March 11th, if you're, you know, tomorrow or the next day, hour number two, and just chime into the Dr. Bob segment. You'll get all these again. You can listen to them at your own leisure.
33:23
UTEP on the move. Get your bets in now. Bob, thank you. Appreciate it so much, man. All right, guys. Have a good, uh, good luck this week. You too. Dr. Bob, the great Dr. Bob. That's great stuff every year. Uh, Dr.
33:35
Bob Sports, drbobsports.com courtesy of the Progressive guest line. Coming back with more NFL. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:53
Back on The Numbers Game live at Circa. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin. Uh, time for our G-Bank Best Bets of the Day.
34:00
Every show here on the network, uh, every host, every guest, all their picks in every sport, we recap at the end of every show. G-Bank, the official bank of VSiN.
34:07
Today, a couple tennis picks after, uh, again, going one and one yesterday, losing on Kasatkina, winning on Dimitrov. Uh, today I'm on Mirra Andreeva versus Elena Rybakina in a round of 16 match at Indian Wells.
34:20
Big time match on the, uh, ladies' side. Couple great ones today. Iga Swiatek being the other one. But I'm on Mirra Andreeva.
34:28
Uh, you can get a slightly better number than I got, and you could also get a slightly better number than I got on my men's play. I'm on Yasuke Watanuki once again.
34:36
Had him in the, uh, upset over Frances Tiafoe the other night. Got him over Tallon Griekspoor today. So Andreeva on the ladies' side, Watanuki on the men's side as we try to simultaneously root our futures home.
34:47
What you got? Yeah, let's go. I got a lot. Yeah, the futures are looking good, Gil. I got a l- I've been on four tennis futures, all of them still alive.
34:54
Uh, nothing specific for me today, but I will b- actually that's, that's a lie. I bet, I made Michael Kim bets yesterday. Liar. Rest of the golf bets are coming later this morning.
35:04
Uh, Michael Kim I did get in on a top 10 and top 20 for the players already at plus 250 and five to one. Sorry Brendan for not punching these in. I'm terrible at my job.
35:13
Um, and then the, the growing list of, uh, bets to make, so I do have that. Uh, I, I w- I f- I w- m- will probably be in on the Bucs later. I do agree with Drew, but I haven't made that bet yet.
35:24
Uh, I'll probably join you guys on Mirra Andreeva. Uh, Liverpool sounded good from Paul Carr today, think I'm gonna tail that one, and then Rutgers 200 to 1. Sure, let's go. Rutgers 200 to 1. Let's go, Will. Yeah.
35:33
Little Big Ten bet there. Again, Ace Bailey, Dylan Harper, you got two lottery picks on the team. That's right, yeah. I mean, that's how I just play the NCAA tournament anyways.
35:41
I'm like, "Who's got the better NBA players that I need to watch?" Ace Bailey, who was, when I was a kid, was a player on the Washington Capitals. Don't even know that. There you go.
35:48
Uh, Drew Dincic, he is also on Mirra Andreeva. We did not know that about each other. Uh, Mirra Andreeva, he got a better number than I did, minus 102 versus Rybakina.
35:57
He's on Jessie Pegula, who, uh, we have to win the quarter minus three and a half games versus Elina Svitolina, Miss Gael Monfils, by the way. You may know her as. Uh, he's on Pegula minus three and a half games.
36:07
He's also in the Andreeva/Rybakina match. He's also on over 21 and a half games and over two and a half sets. So he thinks it's a long match, and Andreeva wins in three.
36:16
And as Kelly mentioned, he's on the Bucs tonight minus two and a half versus the Indiana Pacers. Uh, Will Hill. Oh, are we Will Hill next? Yeah. Yep. Next, Will Hill.
36:26
Uh, Rutgers 200 to 1 to win the Big Ten we just mentioned. Texas Tech to win the Big 12 Conference tournament at plus 425, and then a couple games. He's Oppo Bob's trend- Bump, bump, bump...
36:37
on Oklahoma State plus seven and a half versus Cincinnati. Uh, or as Will kept referring to 'em, Oak State. I caught that as well. I was like, uh- I'm glad you're bringing this up right now. Is that like a thing?
36:49
It's either Oklahoma State or it's Okay State. I don't think it's Ok- Yeah, yeah. Uh Yeah... okay. Uh, and then- Not the same thing...
36:54
then he's on the under in Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, under 138 and a half for our G Bank Best Bets of the Day today. You got the b- Dr. Bob wrapping it up. He's on Cincinnati, again, oppo.
37:06
Cincinnati based on the trends he just mentioned, minus six and a half versus Oklahoma State. TCU minus two and a half versus Colorado. Both of those apply to a couple of the trends he just mentioned.
37:16
And then UTEP in the Conference USA, the first two were in the Big 12 today. Conference USA, UTEP minus two and a half versus Han- uh, Sam Houston State.
37:24
G Bank Best Bets brought to you by G Bank, the official bank of VSiN. G Bank upping the ante with up to a $750 bonus for new G Bank Visa Signature Card customers.
37:31
First, new customers who spend $1,000 on eligible purchases within 90 days from account opening receive a $250 bonus.
37:38
In addition, if you spend $50,000 on gaming and sports app loads within the 30 days of account opening, you'll receive another $500 bonus. That's potentially a $750 bonus. Apply now at visin.com/gbank.
37:49
That's visin.com/gbank. Subject to credit approval. Terms and conditions apply. We get tweets @BeatingTheBook, uh, best listeners in the game.
37:57
Chance Copper Pot, "As a lifelong diehard Seahawks fan, I was re- I was really happy about the trades," he says, "and then they signed Sam Darnold." Yeah. He didn't like that. I mean, that's the problem, right?
38:09
It's the... I, I'm okay if you feel like you need to rebuild a- a- and sell off the parts and rebuild, build up, but I d- I'm not, I'm not there on Darnold. I, I just- Yeah...
38:20
we think he's gonna be that good without the weapons he had around him in Minnesota, like I don't, sorry. Well, I- and I'm with you on the Seahawks.
38:27
Like in the end, I, I respect if you, if you feel like you gotta tear it down, great. Yeah. Right. Uh- And maybe I'm wrong. Maybe I'm way wrong on Darnold, right? And, and this is the perfect move.
38:37
I just, I agree, I agree with whoever tweeted that. I don't think there's anybody who thinks you're wrong. J- uh, three Jack, H3131, "Gil, Dr. Bob [laughs] Dr.
38:46
Bob couldn't feel his face because of all that Thai food, not because he was in love?" [laughs] This is... And by the way, we got two of these, Roger Jones and Bronco Wins. Just for clarifying timelines.
38:55
Yeah, yeah, I remember. The Thai food three times a week was before Dr. Bob felt his face melting. [laughs] Uh, for those that don't know, this is a reference to an old story. Oh, man.
39:02
Uh, Bob and I once, uh, after a Thai food, so it's right around the same time, we're walking down Union Street in San Francisco.
39:07
This is when The Weekend's smash, uh, I Can't Feel Your Face, was a big hit, and Bob says to me, he goes, "Gil, you know that song I Can't Feel Your Face?
39:14
Have you ever, have you ever been so in love that you can't feel your face?" [laughs] And I said, uh, "Bob, I don't think that's what that song's about." Uh. He goes, "No, pretty sure that's what it's about."
39:22
[laughs] He was, he was dating his, uh, fiancee at the time, soon to be his wife. [laughs] And I said, "I think it's about, uh, drug use, Bob." He goes, "Nah, uh, I don't think so. I think it's about being in love."
39:32
There we go. Anyway. That is great. That was at the same time. Fantastic. To, to answer y'all's question, it was right around the same time, and thank you for remembering, by the way. Best listeners in the game.
39:40
[laughs] You got multiple tweets about that story. They're the greatest. I don't remember the last time you've told that story on, on air. Oh, it's been years. Maybe like a year or two ago. Yeah. Yeah. It's been years.
39:48
Have I mentioned my Achilles at any point in the last year? [laughs] Um, anyway, uh, back to, uh, back to NFL free agency once again.
39:55
Um, so right now at this point, and again, I think Drew's p- Drew's points were interesting on this, right? 'Cause Drew had a different spin on a couple things.
40:04
One, uh, when it came to the Washington, uh, Commodores, he made an interesting point, which is, I get that you now have the cap space and that you are making a run for it. I'm paraphrasing now.
40:16
But why would you take on injury concerns like Deebo? Which is fair. Totally understood. But Adam Peters, again, has a connection, uh, also talking about, uh, um, Kinlaw, right? Like, totally fair.
40:30
But he's familiar, Adam Peters is, with these players also from having been in San Francisco, so maybe he feels a certain way about them. But, but it's a valid, it's absolutely a valid comment.
40:39
Um- I, I don't care, though. Lo- load up on weapons. It's an arms race in the NFC, right? It's an arms race. And there is not a single team that I... Like Lions, Eagles, sure, expe- I, I...
40:51
Of course I expect them to be good next year. But they're not unstoppable. Like this isn't the AFC- Oh, no... right, where you have a gauntlet of quarterbacks- Yeah... that you feel like you have to get through.
41:01
Th- this is the only, my only pushback on Rogers to Steelers, where, okay, yeah, that would be the most logical landing point if you were him.
41:09
But you look up at who's in the AFC standings, you still, if you're Aaron Rogers, you're going to one of these teams 'cause you still wanna try to win, right?
41:16
But you still gotta get by Patrick Mahomes, [laughs] Josh Allen- Yeah... Joe Burrow. Like, it's tough. They're right. You know, Chrissy, I was with, with, at the tournament last night with Chrissy and Parley.
41:25
And Chrissy, I, you know, Steelers fan. I was like, "Are you excited if it's Rogers?" He's like, "Yeah, actually I am." And, um, you know, I made my stupid comment like, "I can't even picture him in that uniform."
41:34
He's like, "I can." [laughs] But, um, but you know, what I mentioned was the sort of Joe Peta thing when he talks about baseball, which is, well, what you're replacing is Russell Wilson's production.
41:44
And Russell Wilson's production was pretty damn good last year, right? When they decided to finally go with him.
41:49
And then, by the way, Tomlin, remember when he decided to go with him, we were all like, "What are you doing?" Going away from the kid. Yeah. Um, so that's, that's, you know,
41:57
it's not necessarily an upgrade, to say the least. And clearly with Aaron Rogers, there shouldn't be any expectation of that.
42:03
By the way, the other big thing in sports, we went a whole show without mentioning, yesterday the biggest news in baseball, Gerrit Cole is going to have- Mm... to have Tommy John surgery.
42:11
Uh, we probably should have mentioned that, but we didn't get into baseball today.
42:13
And that is, you know, s- I don't know if it's seismic, but if you were high on the Yankees and you thought they were the, the team that was going to come out of the American League, or at least the rightful short shot, uh, they ain't anymore after that.
42:26
Um, their season win total drops to 89 and a half, um, from 91 and a half. That's a monster deal.
42:33
If you think about the American League as a whole now, and you were to say, okay, and someone asks you, "Okay, who's coming out of the American League?"
42:39
Obviously this is a fool's errand to even try to, to guess it now at this point, um, as it is in most years. But, you know, 'cause obviously the, the postseason is a, a randomized gauntlet in, uh, in baseball. Who is it?
42:53
Is it a team like the Rangers or the Red Sox now at this point from the American League? Like, it's that kind of random. Well- What's already random is going to be that much more random.
43:02
All those Red Sox bets, though, uh, that we heard over the past couple weeks looking better and better. I wouldn't be surprised if it's like the Rangers. Like Bochy somehow gets his team back.
43:11
But again, it's, it's the postseason makes it all like an impossible, a possible thing to judge.
43:15
But Gerrit Cole, the old elbow tingling or whatever, elbow pain, and then got one opinion for he needed Tommy John, and then that was corroborated, so that's what he's doing, out for the entire season.
43:25
Yeah, that was, when I kind, kind of quoted, he, he said he was in like in a lot of pain after that, after that outing, which that's a, that was a little surprising.
43:33
It's almost like human beings were not supposed to throw a baseball, this, this ball that we've created, at ridiculous speeds with torque in addition- Yeah... on your arms. Almost. For years and years and years.
43:47
The, the Nolan Ryans of the world are the exceptions, right? He got all the way to age 44 before he ever had arm trouble. Now it feels like everybody's gonna have to go through it at some point in their career.
43:59
Just feels like a, a, you know, part of the deal- Yeah... at this point. So anyway, that was the, uh, the biggest news obviously in baseball. Uh, I will look for those monthlies and I will do my, uh, my March/April
44:10
analysis. You got a lot of homework to do. DraftKings got like 19 markets up for a month. Problem is we gotta mule those out from here. [laughs] Sorry. Meant to, meant to think that- Drive down to Arizona...
44:21
meant to think it, not say it out loud. Uh, Stormy is next. Stormy and Matt Brown on Money Moves. Next two hours right here at VSiN. Enjoy, from the Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music]
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