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Mar 11, 2026
A Numbers Game | March 11, 2026, Hour 1
A Numbers Game | March 11, 2026, Hour 1
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46:08
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Transcript
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1:02
They always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
1:10
This is a Numbers Game at VC Sports Betting Network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, Sirius XM Channel 158. Gil Alexander, Kelly Midland. Hey-oh. Live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas.
1:23
Anything happen last night? We have to go through last night as it, as it went down, in chronological order, 'cause I just... That was the most out of nowhere night in sports- It really was... in a long time.
1:36
By the way, the show brought to you as always by Profit X. We appreciate it. Um, we got a treat today in studio as well. First of all, Nick Whelan will join us to talk NBA.
1:46
Then it's a whole bunch of college basketball, as it should be on this Wednesday morning, with the final big conferences starting their tournaments tonight. I know the Ivy still exists and the, and the MAC does.
1:58
Those, those tournaments will not have started after today. But everybody else will be in action today. Um, and some more tickets punched, which we'll get to momentarily. But Greg Peterson will join us with his Fab Five.
2:10
Will Hill with his college basketball plays. He might have some baseball as well. Matty Cox a little later from Three Man Weave to talk college hoops with us. And ladies and gentlemen, a special treat.
2:20
We were talking about him all season, how unbelievable his performance has been inside his Discord. 160-plus units, I believe, last we checked. Todd Awishnev in studio.
2:30
And the interesting part about this is, first of all, if you've ever had the Todd Awishnev experience before, I'm sure he will have dressed up for this. [laughs] I was just gonna ask. As we start there.
2:39
But secondly, uh, there are games going on in the final hour, so maybe, just maybe, we will have sort of his Discord come to life- I like it... with in-game bets. We shall see. Uh- No pressure...
2:53
real quick, last night in college basketball, four more tickets punched for auto bids. Uh, we had eight prior to last night. Last night, uh, Hofstra goes into the Coastal Conference.
3:02
Wright State, with a dramatic block at the end of that game, they go in, uh, from the Horizon. Metro Atlantic, Siena, Jerry McNamara's Siena team, plus 330 pre-flop in that tournament. They advance to the Big Dance.
3:15
And then, uh, no surprise, Gonzaga, as a minus 210 pre-tournament favorite, goes in for the West Coast Conference here at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.
3:24
So far, Kelly, of all the, uh, auto bids, the longest shot pre-flop of any of these tournaments to advance thus far is Northern Iowa out of Missouri Valley at plus 475. Not really that sexy, but tonight
3:40
we are guaranteed a longer shot in either the Patriot League or the Big Sky. Southland also tonight. Southland is the two favorites, McNeese and, uh, Stephen F. Austin. That's today.
3:50
That will determine another auto bid out of the Southland. But Big Sky, it's, uh, Montana versus Idaho. Montana's a seven to one pre-flop shot. Idaho was plus 950. Okay.
4:01
And in the Patriot League tonight, BU, Boston University, plus 850 versus Lehigh. They were eight to one before that tournament started. So three more tickets punched today in college basketball.
4:10
We, we might have to play a game later this week, uh, Gil. Like I... Some of these teams I can't keep track of anymore. My...
4:15
It feels like, it feels like four teams you just named are in the NCAA tournament every other year. Like, it's just- It's kind of- That's what it, that's what it feels like... kind of true. Yeah, like I- Yeah...
4:25
like Wright State? Wright State feels like they're in there every three years. [laughs] That was a great finish. Um, okay. So what I really wanted, and we'll get to tennis, we'll get to everything. I-
4:35
Last night was just bizarre, 'cause we're watching college basketball, um, watching with, uh, Awishnev, with Sam Ginsburg, loyal listener to the show. Sam, all right.
4:44
Um, we're watching college basketball, and you know, you, you just, you, you're doing your bets, you're, you're playing in-game, all this stuff.
4:50
And then the first of what ends up being a trio of just bizarre sports news comes down, which is Adam Schefter reporting that the Ravens backed out of the Max C- Crosby trade. That's the first thing that happens.
5:03
By the way, our buddy Danny Higgins here, very smart, gets on Calci. He ends up immediately betting Trey Hendrickson to go to the Ravens at, I think, over $7. And he hits that eventually. Yeah. Yeah, he did.
5:16
So, so the Ravens, and this is the, the terminology again, Ravens backed out of the Max Crosby trade. That's from the Raiders.
5:21
And then Adam Schefter this morning reporting the Ravens and Trey Hendrickson reaching an agreement on a four-year, $112 million contract.
5:29
Hendrickson stays in the AFC North, now will be facing Joe Burrow and the Bengals twice a season. So Trey Hendrickson finally gets his money, and he gets it from the Ravens,
5:39
who, according to the Raiders, the, the terminology again, back out of the deal. Now, from the Ravens perspective, this is where it, uh, interpretation is key, right? From the Ravens perspective, they say, right?
5:50
Take them at face value. They say, "Hey, um, our doctors had an issue during the physical. He did not pass his physical. They had an issue with Tr- with, uh, Max Crosby's knee He had meniscus issues- Mm-hmm...
6:07
that they feel were being downplayed, and they were much more concerned after the physical about Maxx Crosby's health, uh, with his knee and the meniscus, and so they backed out of it because of that.
6:19
And by the way, they're entitled to. Every trade in the NFL is subject to a physical. That's how this works. Yep. You don't see it often, but that's the, the, the kosher part of it is okay in that respect.
6:29
It, it feels like we're starting to see it, like, once every other year in the NBA, Gil, but it's like you know what happens with those usually? It's the, "Okay, like, this showed up. You didn't let us know about it.
6:39
Like, we're gonna take off some of what we were gonna give you, and we'll still take, put this through." Well, the gambling example in the NBA is Terry Rozier, right? The Terry Rozier trade, I can't remember which way.
6:49
You'll, you'll tell me which way it went, but eventually w- did he go to the Heat? Was that the last or w- Yeah... yeah. And they were like, "Hey, you didn't tell us about this gambling stuff."
6:58
And so eventually they got an extra pick. [laughs] Right. So, so there's that kind of thing that happens, too, right? But in the case of Crosby, it's okay. If you take the Ravens at face value, failed the physical.
7:07
They were more worried about the knee and the meniscus because again, there's every doctor... This is, this is, this is not a pass-fail thing. This is not, this is not, there's not right answers- Mm. Right...
7:17
and wrong answers. There's subjectivity to it. If you're a cynic, which some are being,
7:24
what you're saying is the Ravens knew they could get a better deal all of a sudden with Trey Hendrickson, and they found themselves a doctor who came up with this diagnosis. Just saying. Those are the two sides of that.
7:37
Either way- You never know... either way, the Ravens now have Trey Hendrickson as their standout pass rusher, and Maxx Crosby may just stay right here in Las Vegas. Still feel...
7:49
I, I mean, it, it, it feels like this is probably the better deal for the Ravens, right? I, I think it is. So, like, I get why you say it, right? Like, you're, you're saving the draft picks.
8:00
Like, the, the, the timelines that people were talking about with Crosby and Lamar, okay, even more aligned now with Trey Hendrickson, right? You don't need, you don't need a star for seven years from now.
8:10
You need a star right now for the next few years while Lamar Jackson is there. Yeah. So that's, that's the first thing. We're watching college basketball.
8:17
That's the first thing that goes down, and you're like, "Okay, wow, that's big news." Mm-hmm. "That's unbelievable." But your brain can sort of process one thing. Then as we're leaving, we kind of got, like...
8:26
We, we just left early 'cause we get tired. I see on the screen USA baseball falls behind Italy. I don't really process it 'cause I'm like, "Oh, okay, whatever. I'll just plant that in my brain."
8:37
[laughs] Portent of things to come, right? [laughs] The next thing that happens is not actually that.
8:41
The next thing that happens is all of a sudden people start texting each other, and I'm sure this happened in most people's lives who follow e- sports. Oh. "Are you seeing what Bam is doing?"
8:50
I'm like, "What are you, what are you talking about, what Bam is doing?" I'm, uh, meaning it's one, in one of these tanking games, right? Bam and the Heat playing the Wizards. Well, apparently- Oh...
9:01
apparently, like that kid on, on, on, uh, YouTube. Can, can I give you my where I was at when this happened? Okay. So I'm r- I'm runn- same thing. I'm running around, uh, yesterday afternoon.
9:10
The, the, the, the Raven stuff comes down. Okay, I think my brain can handle this. That's fine. I'm going home. I'm sitting on the couch to watch NBA. I'm got, I got multiple screens up.
9:19
I'm getting caught up on everything. I've got the scores, right? I've got the scores. That's all I'm looking at, Gil.
9:24
And then halftime of some game, I just see a, on the bottom sc- the bottom crawl, and I'm like, "What did that just say next to Bam?" So my first text, I wonder, was it Will who? Somebody texted me first.
9:36
Might've been my buddy Ray, too. And, and all of a sudden I'm like, "Whoa, Bam has, Bam has 70"... Like, at this point he had, like, 72 or something. [laughs] And I'm like, "What is happening?"
9:45
So apparently he had 31 points in the first quarter. Yeah. I caught it at halftime, yeah. He had 43 at the half, 62 by the end of the third quarter, and then from that point on, I'm just refreshing the box score.
10:00
I'm like, "Oh, they're gonna try to get him to 80. Oh, they're gonna try to get him to Kobe."
10:04
Kobe, who famously had the second-most points in any game in NBA history behind Wilt's 100 with 81 against the Raptors so many years ago.
10:11
And sure enough, all that happened, and Bam ends up with 83 before they take him out in a 150-129 blowout of the Wizards.
10:22
Now, just like with the Maxx Crosby case where there's two interpretations of this, we have two viewpoints on this, which is- Oh, this... on the one hand, 83 points. Oh my God, I don't care how you get to 83.
10:37
83's only been done once before in NBA history by a guy named Wilt. It's incredible no matter what. Hard stop. Hard stop. 'Cause this is the two separate thoughts, right? Mm-hmm. I'm s- I'm, I'm sorry.
10:49
I'm going full two separate thoughts Kelly today 'cause that is one thing, Gil, and that should be left on its own. Okay. And then [laughs] And then, and then, before I was rudely interrupted- [laughs]...
11:00
the second part of this, the opposite side is, all right, how'd he get this 83? It's incredible. How'd he get this 83? In fact,
11:09
Ime Udoka, a head coach, an actual head coach in the NBA of the Houston Ast- of the Houston Astros, of the Houston Rockets, pardon me, says after the game, "How'd he get it?" Oh, that's how he got it?
11:20
Because Bam has never scored half this many points- Mm-hmm... in a game, and the real sort of stat that leaps off the page is obviously the free throws. Yes.
11:30
Bam Ade- uh, Bam Adebayo in getting his 83 points was 36 of 43 from the line. 36 free throws made is a new record in NBA history. 43 free throws attempted is a record now in NBA history.
11:49
So 43 of his 83 at the line and, and Kelly Bidlin, and the Heat purposely fouled at the end of this game so that they could get more possessions- Uh... for him to get to the number he got to.
12:06
Purposely fouled, missed foul shots. Uh, it was It was a bizarre scene. 83 points is 83 points. I thought they were, I thought they were gonna go to 70, take him out, and that would be it.
12:18
And then I was like, "Okay, they're gonna match Kobe and that will be it." Nah, it was... It got pretty gross at the end of the game. [laughs] It got pretty gross. I have more to say about this. Yeah, yeah.
12:26
And one of the thi- and one of the things I wanna say about this is, what kind of league is this? You- First you, first you have tanking.
12:34
Now on top of the tanking you got these shenanigans But that's the biggest thing, right? Like, this is the part I don't feel bad about at all. The Wizards, you deserve every second of this.
12:42
[laughs] And then there's the other side of my shenanigans call, which is any time you score this many points, it's kinda shenanigans. More on the other side, right here on The Numbers Game.
12:51
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Use promo code VSiNMM, that's March Madness, VSiNMM, and become the King of March. I was rudely interrupted by a, uh, commercial when I was going on these, on this rant of how, w- what went down last night.
14:10
Let us continue here just back to the Bam thing. So we're, we're watching college basketball. First the Max Crosby thing comes down. Two interpretations of that. Danny Higgins
14:19
cashing in on Trey Hendrickson going to the Baltimore Ravens. Again, do you believe the Ravens at the physical? You know, he failed the physical, Max Crosby.
14:28
Or do, or do, are you the cynic that says, "Yeah, they figured out they'd get a better deal with Trey Hendrickson. Let's find a doctor to, uh, sort of say this is a bad knee." So there's that, and then Bam happens.
14:39
83 points, second most in any game in NBA history behind Wilt's 100 famously in the early '60s in Hershey, Pennsylvania, a game that nobody has footage for and nobody saw. Yep. Um, and again, is it 83 points?
14:52
Unbelievable. No matter how you get there, it's incredible. And the other side of that is, yeah, but how'd he get there?
14:56
Again, a record field go- of free throws made and a record for free throws attempted, including, by the way, a ridiculous amount down the stretch of this game where the Heat were purposely fouling the Wizards so they'd get more possessions- Yep...
15:09
in a 150 to 129 game. Joe, by the way, the Wizards are a tanking team. So I just wanna say something else. C- and we even had the Wizard...
15:19
Oh, as the Wizards coach said, "Yeah, that wasn't basketball in the fourth quarter," Eme Iduka. Oh, come on. Yeah. Really? Yeah. Uh, Eme Iduka of the, the Rockets says, "Yeah, how'd he get there?"
15:28
He also is one of those, like, uh, "83, really? With all those free throws," that kind of thing. I just wanna say a couple things. One, yes, it's shenanigans for sure, but can I just sort of say that
15:41
any time you score this many points in the NBA, there's usually shenanigans involved. Yes. So when I was a kid, and I mean a little kid,
15:50
1977-78, the end of the 1978 season, for those of a certain age you will remember this, the last day of the NBA season, Kelly, David Thompson scored 73 points. Why? Because he was trying to win the NBA scoring title.
16:07
Mm-hmm. Points per game. Scored 73 points for the Denver Nuggets, I believe it was at the time. He scored 31 in the... 32. Uh, how many did he score in the first quarter?
16:15
I think it was 31 in the first quarter, which at the time was a record, and then he ends up with 73.
16:21
So he's the leader in the clubhouse, and then George Gervin, The Iceman of the San Antonio Spurs, that night playing for the Spurs, he breaks the quarter where he scores 32, I believe it was, in the second quarter.
16:31
On his way to 63, he ends up with the NBA scoring title, okay? So these kinds of... The, the shenanigans always happen with this. By the way, if you go back to Wilt's 100-point game that nobody saw- Even that a bit...
16:46
they, Philly was letting the Knicks in that game. Wilt played for Philly at the time. Philly was letting the Knicks score quickly in that game- Mm-hmm... so they could get the ball back to Wilt- Yep...
16:55
so he could get to 100, and famously holding the piece of paper that says 100, which the Heat paid tribute to by having Bam hold a pa- piece of paper that's had 83 on it last night.
17:03
So even that game when Wilt scored 100, there were shenanigans in that game as well. The great Adam Sandler joke, "This is my imitation of the opposing coach playing Wilt in Hershey, Pennsylvania in 1962.
17:18
Who's got Wilt?" [laughs] I love that joke. Anyway- All of them, though... it was a perfect, perfect joke. I'm glad you brought this up. All- Okay.
17:23
Oh, oh, and then one more, the more modern one, because people love to romanticize the late, great Kobe Bryant- Yes. Yep... in a way that oftentimes isn't reality.
17:33
And I'm just saying in his 81-point game against the Toronto Raptors, he took 13 of Los Angeles' last 17 field goal attempts, and all 13 of their free throw attempts in the fourth quarter to get to 81, and they were up by 17 with four minutes left and he was still doing this.
17:49
He stayed in. He scored 10 more. No one else on the team even took a shot for the next three minutes. So again with the Bam thing, I just... And we'll leave it at that.
17:58
There are so many different interpretations of it, but let's not act like this was in any way worse than s- any of those others. Thank you. Thank you, thank you. So that needs to be said.
18:06
I, I, I agree, and, uh, like the Kobe 60-point game finale is a good reminder. He put up 50 shots. Yes. Like, like- Yes... there's, there... It was, it was one of... And, and I think it was worse.
18:16
It was one of the worst- Stat chasing performances I've ever seen. I, yeah, it was, it was a little gross to watch down the stretch. 83 points is 83 points though, and I...
18:28
There is no part of me, and I am- I just pulled up the Wizards q- post game quotes. You, didn't, it turned into not a basketball game. It turned into not a basketball game.
18:36
That Wizards, you haven't been a basketball team for years. Scream it. You got this whole season, you're a joke. Scream it, Killer. I don't feel bad for the Washington Wizards being on the other side of this one bit.
18:46
And I, Adam Silver had to sit at home and watch this and say, "This is what's happening to the league. Tanking teams are getting destroyed by Bam Adebayo, Gil. By Bam Adebayo." I love Bam. Everybody loves Bam.
18:59
Bam doesn't score 80 points.
19:01
Those- There's no, there's no, there's no sense of reality or history where Bam Adebayo goes off for 83 points in an NBA basketball game Those of us who grew up in DC kept shooting back the t- same joke on text to each other, which is, "Man, this many people haven't watched a Bullets game since '78."
19:17
[laughs] It's great. Then there's that part. I know there's a lot of people that are gonna be upset about the way this was done today. I, I understand.
19:27
No part of me f- will stop and feel bad for the Washington Wizards or that organization at all. And then the third thing that happened yesterday.
19:34
So again, it's, it's like you're just, we're casually watching college basketball on a conference week on a Tuesday night, the Max Crosby thing happens, the Bam Adebayo thing happens, and then [laughs]
19:45
the, the Team USA World Baseball Classic team is getting rolled by Italy to the tune of eight to nothing at one point.
19:53
And by the way, thank goodness the USA managed to get six runs on the board before losing on the final. They had a, they actually had the tying run on at the end, Aaron Judge strikes out.
20:05
But because of the eight to six loss, the United States of America is not guaranteed to get out of the pool round to advance. In fact, the Mexico-Italy game determines that today.
20:16
I wanna shout out Dmitri Cordes, who, uh, is in Greece, who was the first one to sort of spell this out on Twitter yesterday. Um, essentially the tiebreaker is lowest runs allowed quotient.
20:27
So it's runs allowed per, divided by the number of defensive outs- What?... recorded in games between the tied teams. So if Italy beats Mexico today, we're in, we being the United States.
20:39
Italy beats Mexico, Italy and the US are in. If Mexico wins, scores five-plus runs, Mexico and the USA advance. But if Mexico wins and scores four runs or fewer, Mexico and Italy advance.
20:55
So there is a scenario today, by the way, this game is 1:00 PM Pacific, I believe, 4:00 PM Eastern, or I might, might have that time wrong, but it's right in the middle of the...
21:01
That is correct, Danny's telling me, middle of the day. And by the way, there's another quirk. If Mexico happens to score its fifth run to walk it off with one out or more in the bottom of the 10th, Italy would advance.
21:13
So it's not completely 100% what you're seeing on screen. There is another, there's another quirk where we could also lose if Mexico scores five more runs, but if it's a, a walk-off late.
21:23
So, and it all comes down to that tiebreaker of, once again, fewest runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in games only between tied teams. Now, this would all- Sure... be amazing in and of itself
21:36
if it weren't for the fact also that USA Skipper Mark DeRosa seemed to have no idea about this when interviewed by our buddy Matt Vasgersian on Hot Stove on MLB Network yesterday. Ton of respect for Italy.
21:49
It's, it's weird. We wanna win, we wanna win this game even though our ticket's punched to the quarterfinals because Mexico plays Italy actually tomorrow.
21:58
So this, the way, the way the schedule lines up, this is an important game for us. Not so much, man. What's he talk- what, what's he talking about, Gil?
22:07
He, uh, he thought before the game last night against Italy, he thought that it didn't matter what happened, USA was in, meaning they would advance out of the pool round. He did not know the rules of his own tournament.
22:17
Well, surely, surely in a national tournament like this, there are many, many assistants to back him up and help him out with these rules. Yeah, apparently not.
22:26
Might have misspoke on live TV, that's understandable, but surely this entire organization has to know what the rules are, right? He did a mea culpa later, but yeah, he didn't know. He did not know.
22:35
And you would think, you would think at a bare minimum, a manager of a inter- of a team in an international tournament should know that. Yes. I'm, this was mind-blowing.
22:44
Da- Danny started texting us about this, and I completely ignored Danny last night. I'm like, "I don't, I don't really care about what's going on in a qualifying game in the World Baseball Classic."
22:51
'Cause like, even- Yeah... that was your first e- uh, take too. I was like, "Yeah, we don't-" I was like, "Well, how big of a deal could this be? Oh, wait, it's this? What?"
22:58
Well, they just, they just kept kidding, hitting homers. You know, remember, in early in this tournament, it was Logan Webb pitching for the U- for Team USA. It was, uh, Skeens, it was Skubal.
23:08
And so ye- yesterday it was Nolan McLain. And s- [laughs] and at that point you're like, "Uh," he just kept serving up BP to big bad Team Italy.
23:18
This is- And so now Team USA, by the way, goes from even money to win the whole thing to now over $2 because we don't even know if we're getting past today.
23:25
This is like, this is like the United States screwing up a, a, a, a apple pie competition or something like that, man. It's kind of like that. Like what? Yeah.
23:34
Yeah, I, I could not believe this story, and the tiebreakers are all over the place. Anyway, what a bizarro day. Very, very. We just, it was just all these stories that came out of nowhere, one after the other.
23:44
You're like, "What is happening?" And so, um, all have, all have betting implications short-term, long-term, uh, but just an interesting night. I'll give you my tennis picks. Two and one yesterday in tennis.
23:54
I'll give you my three for today at Indian Wells. We'll do that on the other side. Tankapalooza, our second straight loss, once again at the hands of the Chicago Bulls. Mm-hmm. We'll talk about that again.
24:06
Oh, geez, how we lost that. Man, oh, man. Will Hill, Greg Peterson, College Hoops next on a Numbers Game at Visa, the sports betting network.
24:18
[upbeat rock music]The numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network Right now you can check out lots of stuff at vsin.com, SEC, Mountain West, Big East, Atlantic 10, MEAC, American, WAC, and Big West Conference tournament previews.
24:33
They all start today. Wes Reynolds player, uh, players championship preview, golf's fifth major, and Greg Peterson's college basketball best bets. We got Greg coming up on the show.
24:42
And later today, you can check out Zach Cohen's NBA best bets, Jonathan Davis' NHL picks and props, and Tyler Shoemaker's men's and women's college basketball projections.
24:50
Right now you can get VSiN Pro access through May 1st for just $29.99 with our Hoops Mania special. Sign up today at vsin.com/subscribe. So many tweets. Where do we begin? Uh, let's read a few here.
25:01
We get tweets meeting the book. Sam Ginsburg from Pittsburgh, PA, "For Todd's intro later, Bam goes for 83, but it's overshadowed by the event of 2026, Gil versus Todd tennis.
25:12
I'll let them tell you who won on the court, but for sure Todd surviving the grueling match made winners of Discord followers yesterday [laughs] and all VSiN viewers today." Todd survived, in other words.
25:20
He beat- He won... he beat me 6-4. But if we were playing in a tournament, I would have advanced 'cause he had to retire at that point. Mm. Sounds like he won. He did, 6-4. Okay. All right.
25:30
What's interesting about that is he used to destroy me, but it's funny how the goalposts have moved. Now people are like, "I beat you." I'm like, "Uh-huh. 6-4, guys." By the way, this show brought you by Prophet X.
25:40
Ray in Texas, "Hey, uh, Gil Kelly, do you know the, uh, do you know what Bam's PRA total was last night? I wonder if he went over or not. Had to have been close to being a bad beat, right?" Say what now? Yeah, y- you...
25:51
Yeah, come on, Ray. You're better than that. Is that a joke? That was a joke. Dan Groeschel- Bad joke, but okay. Come on, Ray...
25:54
last night we learned, last night we learned that Linda Noskova ain't no Yala- Yala back girl. [laughs] Ain't... Yeah, that's true.
26:01
I guess the dream of, uh, cashing the 22 to 1 ticket was B-A-N-A-N-A-S to, uh, continue the, uh, the Gwen Stefani theme. Yeah, we, uh, we were two and one in tennis yesterday.
26:11
Two and one, hit both of the men's matches, hit Arthur Fils as a dog, hit on Learner Tien, what a match that was, and then lost badly on, uh, Alexiala. So we lose that match and we also lose the future on Alexiala.
26:25
So we still have the ego futures, but a future goes down, but another, uh, a consecutive winning day in tennis. I do have three plays in tennis today. Jack Draper on the men's side, plus 120 versus Novak Djokovic.
26:36
And on the ladies' side, uh, Bencic Pegula over 22 games, and Elina Svitolina to knock down Katarina Siniakova two sets to nothing at minus 127. Those are your three tennis plays. Draper on the men's side versus Novak.
26:50
Bencic Pegula over Elina Svitolina, two sets to none over Siniakova. Sc- I'm scared to do what you know I'm gonna do in front of you. Let me check what time these are. See, see what fits Kelly's viewing schedule tonight.
27:00
Brian Shafer31, "NFL exploring playing a game that n- the night before Thanksgiving. Will that be its own week in Circa Survivor?" [laughs] Oh, no. Oh, don't get any ideas.
27:10
Johnny Brock, "I think the 36 and 43 from the free throw line speaks volumes as to why the NBA is tough to watch these days."
27:17
Kevin Ryan Gill, "I'm sorry, but as a guy who grew up in the Jordan era, this league is a joke. I didn't even watch it now till late in the playoffs when they take a little m- when they take it a little more seriously."
27:26
It's part of what I was touching on, that j- what, this, the league itself, good God. By the way, the Takapalooza play loss last night, Chicago Bulls got us.
27:35
We hit the first three legs of four, easy-peasy, and then the Warriors up three late, they do the correct thing and they foul. Yeah. And they still managed not to be able to pull it off 'cause they lose in overtime.
27:50
It was brutal. Brutal loss on Takapalooza. So the, the lesson is we gotta stay away from the Chicago Bulls.
27:57
It bulls, and man, I'd hate to say it, but- Mike Theus III says, "Can't wait to hear the bad beat rant tomorrow about the, the Dubs correctly fouling up three with 10 seconds left, then failing to run more than one second off before missing free throws and blanking us in overtime."
28:10
Yeah. That's all I gotta say about it. It's bad. And then, uh, one more before we get to, uh, to Nick here.
28:15
Chance Copperpot, "If you asked me at the beginning of the season to pick a player going over 70 points, Bam isn't even a consideration. And then you see how it was accomplished.
28:21
Frankly, I'm glad I was watching a 12 to 1 money line USA go down [laughs] to the Italians instead." A minus 1,200, I should say, not a 12 to 1. Oh, man.
28:32
Um, and PAW says, "Believe David Robinson also scored 70 to 71, 70 or 71 points in the last game of his season, uh, to win a scoring title in the '90s. Great point. Always shenanigans." It always is. Mm.
28:44
Nick Whalen has some thoughts on Bam Adebayo. Um, impressive, tremendous accomplishment, shenanigans. We'll start there.
28:50
Nick Whalen joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, co-host of Prop Points, which he does with Jeff Erickson here every day after the show. How you doing, Nick? What do you think? I'm doing well, guys.
29:00
I mean, what a sports night in general, right?
29:02
We get, uh, we get Bazelis going for 40 plus in that, that Bulls-Warriors game, the craziness of the WBC, this blackout Wednesday game, uh, in the NFL, that news coming through.
29:12
Uh, I don't, I don't know if that's just a Wisconsin term, by the way. Do you guys have a blackout Wednesday in- No... in Vegas? I, I've never heard- No, never... the term you just used before in my life. Never once.
29:20
Never once. Okay. Okay. I was wondering that.
29:22
Yeah, I mean, that's when, you know, especially when you're, like, in college or just out of college, everybody comes home and everybody goes to the bar on Wednesday night 'cause everyone's in town before, you know, celebrating family Thanksgiving on Thursday.
29:34
Okay, good to know. Just a Wisconsin term. Oh, oh, no, no, no. Nick, I'm right there with you now, I just didn't know, like, Wisconsin was so cool they had a whole, their own term for it.
29:41
[laughs] Like, I, I, I didn't know they had their own name for it. Oh, yeah. This is, this is a statewide holiday in Wisconsin. V- no, very common though, yes, especially, like, college and stuff. Yes.
29:48
You go home, yeah, and you see old friends, for sure. Real q- real quick- Yeah... just give me 30 seconds on Bam. You, you, you said something off air- Yeah... that I thought was great. You said a, an ethical 70.
29:57
Was that your point? Yeah. So I, I was at the gym last night, and I'm, I'm tracking this game.
30:01
You know, I'm watching the highlights, I'm watching the box score, and I got home, turned the game on, and watched the entire fourth quarter.
30:07
And look, it was the perfect storm for something like this to happen because Miami had three starters out, plus Khalil Ware. Mm-hmm. You're at home against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.
30:16
And really until the fourth quarter, Washington kept this game close enough that it was justifiable to keep Bam out there.
30:22
You know, it was, like, within 14, 15 points And then eventually, of course, Miami pushes the lead up to 25. That's where we see Erik Spoelstra challenging a charge up 25- Oh, my... with three minutes left- Oh, boy.
30:31
Man... against the Wizards in mid-March. But yeah, the, the first 70 or so I, I thought were ethical. That's the term I would use. I was very surprised.
30:39
You know, once it, once it hit 70, I thought, "Okay, maybe that's the milestone. This game is in hand. They'll pull him out." Mm-hmm. And there wasn't that much time left.
30:46
Once Miami started intentionally missing free throws, intentionally fouling, Washington is triple teaming Bam Adebayo in the back court, and he's just rumbling down the court, drawing fouls, whipping the ball at the rim.
30:57
Uh, that's when it got a little bit out of hand.
30:59
So I, I don't think we can just completely wash this away and say, "Oh, he was stat padding from start to finish," because with the, with the injuries that Miami had, like, they, they kinda needed a big night- Yeah...
31:08
from Ba- from Bam Adebayo to win this game comfortably. Got way out of hand at the end, but that's kinda what it takes.
31:14
Like, look, I, I'm, I am glad that we saw a player gun for this, and we saw a coach, even though it's the last guy I would've expected in Erik Spoelstra, allowing his player to do it.
31:23
Because so many times, guys, we've seen these huge performances in the first half, or Klay Thompson's got 60 through three quarters, and then they're pulled out of the game in the fourth.
31:31
I, I think it was kinda cool to, to see a guy have that opportunity and say, "All right, let's go. Let's see if you can get to 80." Okay, what do you have in the NBA tonight? All right, guys.
31:42
So what we'll have a, a deeper breakdown, of course, coming on, on Prop Points, but a few spots that, that I'm looking at here. We have Cavs/Magic, of course, in Orlando. Uh, big game for both teams.
31:50
Orlando quietly starting to play a little bit better. I, I think they're gonna have a good chance now to avoid the play-in with, with the Philadelphia 76ers just sliding and, and not having Maxey.
32:00
Uh, you know, could be a, a look-ahead spot, you wonder, for Orlando. They do have Washington on the schedule on Thursday. Uh, who knows what's possible now when you play the Wizards- Oh, man...
32:08
so you gotta keep that in mind. Cavs have dominated the first two match-ups.
32:11
I do lean Cleveland here, but, uh, one thing I would look at in the prop market is Orlando's allowing the fewest assists in the NBA, like barely 20 assists per game to opponents over the last 10.
32:21
So maybe a spot where you, you look to fade James Harden under seven-and-a-half assists, under 33 and a half on the points, rebounds, assists.
32:28
Uh, Knicks/Jazz, to me, uh, you know, the Knicks are coming off of back-to-back losses in LA, both of those a little bit surprising. I think this is a bounce-back spot in Utah.
32:37
I know they're on a long road trip right now, but Utah played most of their guys on Monday.
32:42
They accidentally beat the Warriors, and if you look at the standings right now, Dallas, New Orleans, Memphis all starting to close in on Utah, uh, in the loss column. And Utah has a top eight protected pick.
32:53
Like, they, they need to start losing more games down the stretch. They do not want to lose that pick, and I think this is a, a good spot for the Knicks to get right here. Would like...
33:00
Would look at Karl-Anthony Towns over 12 and a half rebounds. OG Anunoby over five and a half boards at, at plus 120 is interesting as well, uh, because there's a decent chance Josh Hart might sit this game out.
33:12
And you're on Charlotte tonight as well? I, I'm always on Charlotte, guys. I'm always on Charlotte. I, I know the, the, the road's been a little bit rougher over the last week or so.
33:21
They really did not deserve to win that game, uh, last night, but they did. Uh, the Kings, another team that I, I think accidentally won a game last night.
33:29
Uh, the battle for the worst record in the NBA, uh, against the Pacers. But they also lost Malik Monk in that game, which really matters at this juncture of the season for the Sacramento Kings.
33:38
They're still limiting guys like Russell Westbrook and DeMar DeRozan. We could see those guys even rest on the back-to-back. Hornets meanwhile have been excellent on back-to-backs.
33:46
11 and two against the spread this season. They're covering by almost 14 points per game in those situations. Uh, Kings just four and seven ATS on back-to-backs.
33:55
And one prop I would look at here, Kobe White's, who was rested last night, over one and a half threes for him. Uh, 45 seconds left, Nick.
34:03
Give us your headline on where you and Jeff might go talking NFL free agency on Prop Points today. I mean, we gotta start Max Crosby, of course, right?
34:12
I, I think that is, that is the story right now in the NFL, so we'll give our take on that.
34:17
Uh, Jeff being a Bengals fan, I think will, will have some thoughts on Trey Hendrickson being the, uh, all too convenient replacement- [laughs]... for the Baltimore Ravens now- All too convenient...
34:26
with, with Max Crosby- Yeah... back on the open market. And, uh, look, outside of the NFL world, we're gonna have my guy John Henson, uh, ex-UNC star, ex-Milwaukee Buck- Yeah...
34:36
on the show helping us talk some college hoops. So I'm, uh, I'm, I'm currently scheming, you know, like how can I get a what was it like to play with Larry Sanders question in for John Henson? [laughs] Wow.
34:45
John Henson, also the, uh, the former host of Talk Soup on E! back in the day. You remember that? Is that right? Yes, I do. [laughs] Uh, it may not be the same one, but- Not the same one [laughs]...
34:52
maybe he'll show up on Prop Points. Thank you, Nick. Appreciate it. Thanks, guys. Nick Whelan, everybody. Uh, follow him on Twitter at Whelan, just replace the L with the number one.
35:02
Prop Points follows us each and every day right here at 1:00 PM Eastern, 10:00 AM Pacific. Nick and Jeff do a great job with that. Greg Peterson, College Hoops next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
35:15
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35:31
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36:03
Gil Alexander, we get tweets speedy the book. Y'all are the best.
36:06
Moneygun Guz, who did so well in the, uh, Circuit Millions contest, he said, "And let's not forget to add the MLS scandal yesterday, where two players got banned for sports betting. Not sure if you heard about that."
36:17
Yeah, it was an old betting scandal. That's right. Um, Dgen Southern Gent is, uh... This is not true, but he's just sort of saying what he thinks FanDuel would say.
36:26
He goes, "Dear valued customer," he said, "We regret to inform you that your live event prop bet of Bam Adebayo over 82 and a half points minus 176 has been refunded due to the fact that the Wizards suck and because we hate you Didn't actually happen, he's just making that up.
36:39
Minkymonkeyman, "Gil, I was at the David Thompson 73-point game." Wow. "My buddies and I were huge David Thompson fans and went on, and went out after the game to celebrate, then the Iceman dropped 63 on us. Oopsie."
36:51
Vegasregular, what did I say? Kobe stans are gonna come out. He says, "Kobe's 81-point game became a blowout because of him. It was a four-point game with 7:25 left. Paint a full picture."
37:02
Well, Vegasregular, none of what you say takes away from my point, which is every one of these performances does have some shenanigans. We just had Nick Whalen on, who said it was an ethical 70 from Bam. Guess what?
37:14
It was an ethical 70 from Kobe. It's the same thing. Again, Kobe Bryant, after the game, after they were up 17 with four minutes left, he stayed in, scored 10 more.
37:27
No one else even took a shot on the team for the next three minutes. So again, yes, great game. Yeah. But there's always shenanigans in these games, always. No exception with Kobe.
37:37
Superjerk, "Good on Kelly for saying it. The Wizards aren't tanking." The Wizards aren't tanking? This never happens. How can you even watch a league when half the teams are not trying to win?
37:46
Newyorkfootballgiants42, "Steve, second time the Bulls have cost us. Is it time to take them off the list of teams we trust, or was that just an indictment on how bad the Dubs are without Steph?"
37:54
Oh, we have rearranged categories. What are we up, a, a unit and a half, a unit and something like that still on, on those tankers? And then, uh, Mike Rao says, "What do we have here?
38:04
How do you mess up an apple pie contest using canned apples versus real apples, using pre-made pie versus make it from scratch?" Talking about, uh, Team USA.
38:12
And Michael Burns, "I love David Skywalker Thompson, and Der- and DeRosa needs to go back to the MLB Morning Show couch next to that smoke show Lauren Shehadi," he says. Lauren Shehadi. All right.
38:24
Called her a smoke show. And the numbers, guys. I don't wanna tell any tales outside of school, but these ain't your typical money line plays this morning, Gilly, in tennis, are they? Well, we'll get to those.
38:31
We'll recap the, uh, tennis plays and the Tankapalooza here at the top of the hour, but we wanna get to our buddy Greg Peterson for his Fab Five in college basketball.
38:40
What a day it is in college basketball, with all kinds of, uh, big tournaments starting. Yesterday, of course, we had a bunch of tournaments starting. Three more...
38:49
Or excuse me, four more auto bids were punched yesterday. Hofstra, Wright State, Siena, Gonzaga. Big Sky, Patriot League, and Southland determine, uh, auto bids today.
38:59
Uh, Greg Peterson joins us now courtesy of Progressive Gasline. GUNIT_81. How you doing, Greg? I'm doing great.
39:06
It is a great time of year as well, because the college basketball action starts before noon Eastern Time, gonna be going past midnight Pacific Time most likely.
39:15
It is an absolutely epic time, so I absolutely love the all-day, all-night hoops. Uh, today the American, the Atlantic 10, the Big East, the Big West, the MEAC, the Mountain West, the SEC, the WAC, they all get started.
39:27
Uh, including some late-night games here in Vegas. Are you attending any of these games, Greg?
39:32
I will not be in attendance because I will be hard at work on the Coast to Coast Hoops podcast, and hard at work trying to be able to find some winners as these games get final.
39:41
But absolutely, I will try to make the Big West Final. I've made it there the last few years. Yeah, we're thinking about a Big West game today, late night- I mean-... when most games are over...
39:49
hey Greg, you should be able to go. We'll get an intern to just hold up computer screens for you- Right... and we'll carve out some space so you can get all your work done right in the arena. Todd's doing that.
39:58
[laughs] Yeah, Todd's doing it. All right, let's start with your Fab Five. Let's start in the ACC, NC State and Pitt. What you got?
40:05
We need AI to be, like, using my voice, being like, "Oh, and I like the money line on so-and-so," [laughs] but that said, with regards to this one, I do like the over at NC State versus Pittsburgh.
40:17
Early game, and for NC State, they have been rock solid with their offense when they've been away from home. Seventh in the country in terms of three-point shooting percentage away from home, at over 40%.
40:25
Seventh in the country in terms of total points scored on a per-possession basis away from home, and they are outside the top tier in terms of points allowed on a per-possession basis away from home.
40:34
Have a Pittsburgh team that's starting to heat up a little bit. They've been able to do an okay job with their three-point shooting.
40:39
They themselves were outside the top 175 in terms of points allowed on a per-possession basis.
40:44
Recognize that Pittsburgh team has been looking to slow things down a little bit, but if you think that this is gonna be coming down to the point spread, right now it's between eight and eight and a half.
40:52
If a team is down eight with about a minute remaining, you are gonna get fouls to the end in these conference tournament games.
40:58
I think that's gonna be helping out a little bit, along with NC State and having so many different guys who are able to pop it from three. Like the over at NC State versus Pittsburgh. Over NC State, Pittsburgh.
41:09
Uh, all right, UCF and Cincinnati. How are you playing this game? We are on to Central Florida in this case. We are not on to Cincinnati, because I like Central Florida here outright on the money line with Cincinnati.
41:22
They were able to get past Utah yesterday, but they were unable to cover the spread, and I've noticed this with Cincinnati, just not the same defense when they're away from home.
41:30
They're overall 17th in the country in terms of points allowed on a per-possession basis.
41:34
They fall outside the top 110 in a road or neutral court environment, allowing over 18 and a half points more per 100 possessions when they leave home.
41:42
Have a Central Florida team that has been a top 35 team in terms of their three-point shooting percentage. Demus Fogg to Michael Soho were teammates over at UW-Milwaukee.
41:50
They made a very nice dynamic duo, and with that total of 147 and a half, also do like that over, because Central Florida, they themselves have been outside the top 140 in terms of points allowed on a per-possession basis, but also a team that does a top 50 job in terms of their overall rebound percentage.
42:05
And you just can't trust in Cincinnati in a tight spot, because with Cincinnati, they shoot less than 68 and a half percent of the free throw outside the top three areas, so like that over, and Central Florida on the money line.
42:16
All right, let's go back to the ACC. Traditional ACC rivals, if you will. Cal and Florida State. Some of us around here have some interest in this game- That's right... with Florida State involved.
42:25
Uh, Florida State five-point favorites here against Cal. Total 152 and a half. What are you playing? And nothing screams a classic ACC conference tournament game- [laughs]... like California taking on Florida State.
42:37
That's right. I, this is what our forefathers were [laughs] envisioning with regards to the ACC. But that said, I do like the points here with Cal I personally made them the favorite with Florida State.
42:47
This team takes a bunch of threes. They're a top 15 team in terms of percentage of their shots that come from three-point range. They shoot 32.7% from three-point range.
42:55
A physical team that away from home allows teams to shoot less than 30% from three.
42:59
Meanwhile, Cal, they themselves away from home are a top 30 team with regards to their own three-point shooting percentage, and they do the little things really well.
43:07
Cal team is in the top 20 with regards to their free throw shooting percentage. They've also been able to take care of the ball, top 30 team in terms of fewest turnovers on a per possession basis.
43:16
I do think that the little things are gonna win out because Florida State, really the only thing that they do well on defense is generate turnovers.
43:22
They're a top 45 team in terms of turnovers generated on a per possession basis. Cal being able to take care of the ball, I think that that wins out for them.
43:29
So I do like the points here with Cal, and I do like that total over as well. All right, pick number four is in the Patriot League Championship game tonight.
43:38
Championship, uh, tournament championship game between the BU Terriers and Lehigh Mountain Hawks.
43:43
Uh, I mentioned earlier before the tournament started, BU was plus 850, Lehigh eight to one to win this tournament, the Patriot League tournament. It's basically a coin flip. BU's, I think, a one-point favorite here.
43:55
Total's at 138. What's the play? Yeah, but I do like the Lehigh Mountain Hawks here on the money line, which you're finding in a lot of places right around even money.
44:04
I think this will be the first time they made the NCAA tournament since C.J. McCollum, by the way. So- Wow... it has been a while for the Lehigh Mountain Hawks.
44:11
But that said, I do like them in this spot just because they force teams inside. Boston U's strength is shooting it from three. They shoot 39 and a half percent from three-point range.
44:21
That's a top 10 mark in the country. Lehigh, 13th in the country in terms of percentage of opponents' field goal attempts that come from inside the three-point line.
44:28
What has been the kryptonite of Lehigh has been rebounding. They're outside the top 30 with regards to rebounding percentage, not like Boston U, who's generating a lot of second and third chances.
44:36
They're well outside the top 375 with regards to their offensive rebound percentage. And Boston U is atrocious on defense. They're outside the top 305 in terms of points allowed on a per possession basis.
44:46
Monsieur Whitlock for Lehigh shoots over 40% from three, 21 points per game. Think that he's gonna be the top scorer in this game. So I do like Lehigh here at about even money on the money line. And then Greg,
44:57
at 200 South Green Valley Parkway, Lee's Family Forum, formerly the Dollar Loan Center Arena, Big West Basketball, Cal Poly against the US, uh, excuse me, the UCSD Tritons. Tritons favored by five and a half here.
45:11
Total, 159. And pretty close to where I am, and I do like the points here with Cal Poly. They do have their turnover issues. Outside the top 330 in terms of turnovers on a per possession basis.
45:23
Unlike last year, UC San Diego not generating a bunch of turnovers. Country average team with that regard. You have a pair of teams that shoot it much better from three-point range away from home rather than at home.
45:31
And Cal Poly guns it. Number one in the country in terms of total possessions per game.
45:36
With the way that Cal Poly has been able to do a relatively solid job as well of knocking down their free throw shooting, over 78 and a half percent from three five, think you get a high-scoring expose, like the 159 over, and the points here with Cal Poly versus UC San Diego.
45:49
NC State pit over. Central Florida catching the points versus Cincinnati. Cal catching the points versus Florida State. Lehigh money line versus Boston University in the Patriot League tournament championship.
45:59
And UCSD, Cal Poly over. Greg Peterson. Thank you, Greg. Thank you, Gil. The great Greg Peterson, everybody. Country Clubin' next
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