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Mar 19, 2025
A Numbers Game | March 13, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | March 13, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:33
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
Just 24 hours away, 24 hours and a little change, from March Madness. It is a numbers game. VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course Sirius XM Channel 158. Gil Alexander, Kelly Midlin on Sharp Week.
0:23
There's a wave to the crowd, Kelly. Very nice. Yeah, that's right. Sharp Week, let's go. Sharp Week. Good show. Jim Root from Three Man Weave will join us momentarily, uh, to, uh, for a couple segments.
0:33
We'll just go, we'll go bracket by bracket. I don't know about bracket by bracket. Let me not say that, 'cause we don't have enough time for that, but region by region, and we'll get his best bets for the round of 64.
0:44
See if there's anything tonight in the, uh, two play-in games, maybe some NIT. And then of course, uh, get his Elite Eight Final Four, so on and so forth, uh, with Jim Root coming up.
0:54
Kelly, we'll talk some golf, some Valspar Championship, uh, thoughts as well. Um, we will do, I, I promised to do this, I will try to navigate my way through a little Survivor strategy a little later on in the show. Yep.
1:07
Um, we'll see how that goes. I'm sure, sure it'll go fine. [laughs] I like when I just write things in the rundown without talking to Gil. Kelly's like, "Gil, Gil's gonna talk Survivor strategy." Like, Survivor.
1:17
[laughs] I'm like, "I am? Okay." So I'll see if I get that one. I thought we were signing up, though. We're signing up, right? Oh, yeah, I gotta get you on there. Yeah, you gotta get me in there, man. All right.
1:24
I, I, okay. Yes, I will. You were throwing out promises yesterday. Remind me. Did that just me? No, no, no. I, I got Ben Wilson on there. I'll get you on there. Okay. And who was, and Will Hill was the other guy.
1:32
Well, I, I, I was really hoping you weren't gonna ask me who else you promised. Yeah. It was Will. It was Will. I think I got Drew on there and Feliko on there, too. We'll get- Okay... we'll get you in there.
1:39
Um, and then, um, we got a whole bunch of other stuff going on, too, but it's mainly college basketball today. Um, Rick Gamin will be here to talk bracket strategy with us.
1:48
JVT as well, who's obviously an NBA guy, but he's got college basketball thoughts, which means we have so much college basketball let me just vomit out everything else we wanted to say here.
1:56
Uh, one, the Aaron Rodgers thing. This is fantastic. Can I just say this? Uh, the last- Which part?
2:01
Last week I'm on the show kind of screaming, not really, but you know how it goes, where I, where I was kind of passionate about the fact that will he just pick a team already? Yeah.
2:09
Like, look, can you be a normal human being and just tell us where you wanna play? No, he can't, 'cause he's Aaron Rodgers. It's all about him. That Achilles thing still bothers me.
2:17
That's where the, that's where my hatred for Aaron Rodgers started. Yeah. [laughs] Yeah, we know. I was personally offended by it. We know. "Oh, yeah, I can come back this year," and all his hack doctors
2:24
on Twitter just backing him up. Anyway, uh, Cam Heywood, Cameron Heywood is like, "Yeah, like, if you wanna be a Steeler, be a Steeler, but, like, I'm not, I'm not recruiting you." I'm paraphrasing.
2:34
I was- "I'm not recruiting you anymore. You know, if you don't, if you come here, great. If you don't, it's no skin off my back." I love this.
2:40
By the way, the Vikings are out on Aaron Rodgers, so what does it come down to now?
2:45
Steeler, uh, you have three choices now: A, Steelers; B, Giants, which makes no sense for either the Giants or Aaron Rodgers; or C, get yo' ass out of here. Yeah. Go. Yeah. Just leave.
2:57
I still [laughs] think, I think it's funny where it's like I think Aaron Rodgers clearly wants the Vikings. The Steelers- You said, you said, Kelly Midlin had the best analysis on this of anybody.
3:06
May I give you your props on this? You said, "Aaron wants to be with the Vikings. Russell wants to be with the Steelers." And- The S- S- [laughs] And the Steelers- The Steelers want Aaron Rodgers...
3:16
and the Steelers want Aaron... Wait, no. Yeah, and the Steelers want Aaron Rodgers. [laughs] That's right. It's like a triangle. Yeah, it's like this triangle where no- nobody wants to work together.
3:23
No, and I referenced Evan Cohen bringing that up on an ESPN radio show. I think it's dead on. Ergo. It's like this weird musical chairs going on where nobody actually wants to be with each other. Ergo, the delay.
3:32
I, I mean, it's, it, just real quick on that, the,
3:36
if you're a Steelers fan out there, I really hope that you are still old school Steeler fan enough to not care as much about Aaron Rodgers and look at what Cameron Heyward said and said, "That's why we're the Pittsburgh Steelers."
3:49
Well, you know what? I have two Steelers fans very close to me. One is on one side, one is the other. Todd Wishnev absolutely is on that thinking. He's like, "Forget that guy," right? Yeah.
3:58
Chrissy Andrews, my mishpucha, he's like, "Yeah, I kind of want Aaron Rodgers." I mean, like, I get it. I get it. It gives you a better chance to win, but- Does it?... it's a culture.
4:05
Well, well, did, have we watched the last year of football? I mean, we just saw him blow up a franchise that's gonna take years to recover from it. Oh, no.
4:11
And, like, the Steelers have been the model of consistency in the NFL. You can't, I, I don't think you can gamble with that. Um, tennis has, uh, how can I put it?
4:19
I was not expecting this, [laughs] this much on Aaron Rodgers. Tennis has not been going well. Uh, O and two yesterday. I don't, this is kind of out of the blue for me.
4:26
I don't, I don't know what's going on here with the hards. Um, but I am firing away with three more today in Miami. Miami just started yesterday.
4:32
Um, Naomi Osaka, by the way, our, uh, futures play just got through, um, against Starod, Starodubseva. Starodubseva is how you pronounce that. Okay. I forgot I tailed you on that.
4:43
Uh, so Naomi got through, but it, she, her body language was awful. Oh, no. Way off. She was down, she was down five-love before you could blink. I'm like, "What is this?" And she came back and won.
4:53
Um, today, two on the men's side, one on the ladies' side. These are all dogs, and they're all kind of big dogs.
4:57
Sebastian Baez, who's a clay court guy, going against, going up against Alexander Bublik, who is a hard court guy who hates clay. This is hard, but Bublik has been playing terribly on hard courts.
5:08
Uh, Baez, who is a pain to eliminate, plus 146 the play for me. Then Fabian Marozsan plus 167 versus the great Gael Monfils.
5:18
Taking a shot on Marozsan, whose, uh, hard court numbers are as good, if not better, than that of Monfils. And then on the ladies' side, this is a, uh, this is a real long shot. This is, uh, Yulia Grabher.
5:30
She is, um, she's Austrian. Or if you're looking at your sports book. Spelled Yulia Grabher. [laughs] But it's pronounced Yulia Grabher.
5:40
Uh, plus 237 versus Tyra Catarina Grant, who is not used to playing on the, uh, on the main tour, and we'll see. Like, I, Grabher's, I'll say Grabher. Grabher has not been playing well either. May I just admit that?
5:54
That's why it's plus 237. But it's always interesting when someone who's a veteran plays someone brand new. Will the stage be too big? So that's worth a plus 237 shot. So those are the three plays in tennis.
6:05
By the way, I have, like, four more, and right now I'm kind of, I'll be honest, I'm kind of gun shy. Yeah. Kind of gun shy. So those are gonna be my three, and we'll try to, uh, turn this around in the old tennis game.
6:16
I don't, like, it, it obviously gets frustrating then when you're You get gun shy, you don't play the things- Oh, those, the others- And those win The other four will absolutely go four and O.
6:24
It's still the ma- I don't know. Should I give you those? It's- Should I give you those four [laughs]? Sure, I'm sure people want them. Yeah. But it's still the m- it's still the right mentality. Dial back.
6:31
When you're getting into the- Yeah... getting into the slumps- Yeah... you gotta dial back and reevaluate things. Uh, consider it dialed back. All right, March Madness. Um, we have the VSiN Bracket Challenge.
6:41
VSiN Bracket Challenge, are you entering this? You're in? Yeah, I'm not in yet, but I'm going to, yes. But you're, okay. Yes, Gil. So again, now VSiN hosts and ga- look, VSiN hosts, we can't win the prize.
6:49
The prize for the VSiN Bracket Challenge, uh, for first place, 3,000 United States dollars. Second place, $1,500. Third place, $500.
6:59
Um, but you get to beat all of us if you, you, that's the bragging rights on top of the money, right? You can bet, you, you can say, "Oh man, I crushed Kelly Bidlin. Man- That's right... oh, that guy, he ain't nothing.
7:09
Look at me." So w- here's the deal. Again, it's 20 ATS or totals picks in round one. Then it goes to 10 in the round of 32, or round two. Then it goes four, three, two, one the rest of the way. 20.
7:22
We gotta come up with 20. 20 [laughs]. 20 in round one. And by the way, I have made eight actual bets. I have- I, I started firing this morning too, yep Okay. So should I go first? Yeah, you go first.
7:32
So, so my- Yeah, yeah, yeah So the, let's do the three that I already had. Do we have those handy? I'm on Grand Canyon plus the points against Maryland. Uh, that was one of them.
7:40
I'm on Georgia plus the points against Gonzaga. And then, uh, what was my third? I can't even remember what the third one was. Uh, San Diego. San Diego plus three. Yeah, three.
7:47
Yeah, that's the one I hate, that I took UC San Diego plus the three against Michigan, and I, like, had instant regret about it. By the way, let me just say this before I get to more of the picks.
7:55
Last night, first four, uh, Alabama State, in a great game, uh, beat St. Francis. You see the ending of that game? Little, uh, little Hail Mary pass down the court- Yeah...
8:05
that somehow caromed right under the basket and they score. And then, uh, St. Francis didn't do the same thing.
8:10
They're like, "I'll just bounce pass this real short to my teammate with one second left, see if that works out." Uh, so Alabama State out of the SWAC gets to play Auburn. They're 32-point favorites.
8:18
But anyway, that was a great first four game. Or as the crew there was saying, they were like, "Oh my God, this is, uh, there's nothing as good as first four games." Seth Davis was saying that. Oh my gosh.
8:27
I'll say it again. There's nothing as great as, as first four games. So Alabama State wins. They, they, they're 32-point dogs against Auburn in, uh, the round of 64. But- It was a fun finish, Gil. It was a fun finish.
8:37
Was it a, was it a good game? Yeah, it was a good game. Okay.
8:40
Uh, the other game was not, and you're unlikely to see as bad a performance as you did from San Diego State as, uh, for the rest of the tournament perhaps, but North Carolina just destroys, uh, San Diego State.
8:50
And so North Carolina, remember, all of the mainstream media buzz, right? How they shouldn't have been in this tournament. And we said here on the show and we're like, "None of that matters."
8:58
On the podcast, on the Megapod, I'm like, "I'm not even interested in talking about that because it has nothing to do with betting," right? And this is the main, the main takeaway from that game. By the way, 95 to 68,
9:09
just squeaking by the four-and-a-half-point cover for North Carolina.
9:12
The main point of that game last night should be to remind everybody when you're making your bets or when you're filling out your brackets, but specifically when you're filling out your brackets, nobody knows anything.
9:22
I'm on this network. This network, they know.
9:23
But I'm just saying, like, all the buzz, all the noise, there is n- there is never a worse signal-to-noise, uh, ratio than there is before March Madness, because within three minutes or five minutes of that game starting last night, you knew, "Oh, Carolina's gonna destroy them."
9:38
And remember, when these games start tomorrow and, and Friday, it's gonna take three minutes of some of these games before you're like, "Oh, everything everybody's been saying is dead wrong." Mm-hmm.
9:46
That's the big takeaway. Anyway, I added five more this morning on our, on our way to 20 to, uh, get in this bracket challenge.
9:53
So in addition to the three I just mentioned, uh, I did grab Liberty plus the points, the Liberty Flames plus the points. Uh, that game, I wanna get the, uh, schedule right on all this.
10:04
The Liberty game is in the, uh, west, excuse me, is in the east region. That's on Friday morning. Uh, they're catching seven against Oregon, against Dana Altman's Oregon, uh, Ducks. Liberty 25 and 0.
10:17
When you don't crack 70 points against them, they allow 63 points per game. Uh, the total is really low and you're catching seven points, the Conference USA tournament champs. Thank you very much, I'll take the seven.
10:29
I am on North Carolina. Um, speaking of that, a first four team has gotten to the round of 32 very often, and I am taking North Carolina. Uh, that one is in the south region. That's on Friday against Ole Miss.
10:43
North Carolina now a tick of a favorite even, so I'm taking the Heels there. Yale plus seven, that's in the south region on Thursday. That's tomorrow.
10:51
I'm taking, uh, the Bulldogs, back-to-back Ivy champs, taking them plus the touchdown against Texas A&M. Texas A&M, 17.0 second chance points per game this year, highest in D1.
11:02
I will expect Yale's fundamentals to work out and box out. Yeah, I'm on Yale, too. I'm with you on that one. Okay. Then I'm taking Drake. This is, uh, also tomorrow. This is in the west region.
11:12
Drake, the 11/6 game against Mizzou, the fighting Ben Wilson and Jeff Parlays of Mizzou. I'm taking Drake. They've got the, uh, number one scoring D in the nation, holding their opponents to 58.4 points a game.
11:22
They slow the game down. I like a slow pace if you're giving me six and a half, so I'm taking Drake there.
11:28
And then the only other one I've, I've got so far, Arkansas, uh, taking an SEC team plus the points, plus the five against Kansas. That's a Thursday game in Providence in the western region. So that's tomorrow as well.
11:39
So I've added five, so eight total plays. I gotta come up with 12 more for the VSiN Bracket Challenge. Vsin.com/champweek. Coming back with Jim Root from Three Man Week next.
11:57
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Wanna bet smarter? Start with smarter insights.
12:02
Right now you can check out March Madness futures from Mike Zamich and Dave Tooley, Greg Peterson's best bets in college hoops, and previews of today's first four, and for all first round games.
12:11
Later today you can check out Zach Cohen's best bets in the NBA, Jonathan Davis' NHL best bets, and Josh, and pardon me, Josh Applebaum's college basketball sharp report.
12:20
To get access to all the articles and betting guides on VSiN.com right now, you can sign up for as little as 9.99. Just head to VSiN.com/subscribe to sign up today That piece embedding guy looking good too, by the way.
12:32
Mm-hmm. The, uh, college basketball March Madness betting guy. There is a lot in there. Lot in there. Let's go, Alexander. We got tweets @BeatingTheBook. Always appreciate the, uh, feedback.
12:41
Let me navigate towards, uh, through some of these. This is from, from yesterday's show. Let's see. Uh, Nick Zimmerman, "Love the, uh, A&G show, fellas," [laughs] as Todd called it, the A&G show. [laughs] The A&G show.
12:53
"Fellas, and listen daily since the beginning of vsen. Going through my dad's old sports card collection, found a gem. Now I need to get this bad boy signed by the legend."
13:00
He's got a Brent Musburger card that he'd like signed. I think we can make that happen maybe. That's very nice. I got a Brent Musburger action figure. I do, too. Misspelled action figure. Misspelled action figure.
13:09
I have that as well. Uh, QC, quote, "Coach." Glad to have QC back on the old Twitter talk. He says, "So glad to have Joe Peta back on baseball. He's truly," uh, what does he say? "Sweet generous thinker on the game."
13:21
I don't know about Latin there. Sweet generous? Is that, is that Latin? Um, let's see here. This is, and this is utopia. This is typ- typical Twitter talk. You ready for this? Mm-hmm. Talking about Joe Peta.
13:30
He goes, "Where can I find his previous picks?" He cited, claiming he offered eight total wins picks. What? I love when tw- claims? Yeah, we're making it up.
13:39
He totally wasn't on last week giving out five before he gave out three yesterday. We, we lied. May- maybe he's just so stunned. We just made it up. He's claiming. So stunned that Joe's, uh, coming out of retirement.
13:48
Claiming. I love the words. Uh, this is, uh, oh, Prime Time, Cowboys_1. "Yo. Hey, man. I was filling out my bracket and suddenly had this overwhelming sense of comfort.
13:57
I remember that America's team, our Dallas Cowboys, have won three, count them, three Super Bowls since the, uh, the w- whiffed Skins last appeared in one." Oh, God. Is that what you're going with?
14:09
[laughs] Is that what you're going with? Really? [laughs] He's like, Jaden Daniels of the Skins guys in the championship game. He's like, "What can I hold on to? I'll come up with something."
14:17
Uh, by the way, baseball overnight, just can I just say this again? Man, um, Dodgers beat the Cubs again, so 2-0 in Tokyo. Not good for our Mets first to 10, nor our Twins to win March, April. Hmm.
14:30
The hope was a split there in Tokyo. So- Hot take, I think this Ohtani kid's gonna be pretty good. Yeah, he hit a homer. That's his first of the year.
14:37
Bainbridge, Deweese, Fezzik's NIT overs angle was six and one last night. Curious if that applies first round. We'll ask Fezzik about that.
14:44
And, uh, let's see, Joe Cagney says, "As a Steelers fan since Dick Shiner was the quarterback, and with all due respect to Mr. Andrews, uh, absolutely no Steelers fan wants Aaron Rodgers." Okay.
14:55
Uh, and then JasonH11, "Any chance Grabhair will match up with volynets or volleyball?" He said, "No, no, no, no chance here in the first round." Let's talk some college hoops.
15:03
Jim Root, ladies and gentlemen, from Three Man Weave, one-third of the Three Man Weave crew, who's actually on the strip right now. You can follow him at Second Chance Points. That's with the number two.
15:14
Second Chance Points, @3ManWeave3MW_CBB. He's on the strip, but, uh, he's a prima donna, so he couldn't come down here to the studio. How you doing, Jim? [laughs] I'm good.
15:23
Yeah, guys, it's good to get boots back on the ground here.
15:26
They used to let me live here, and, and now it's only like, uh, five days they let me stop in, in, in March and hang out, and then they sh- then they kick me out again. Let, let's start with tonight. First four games.
15:37
We have two again tonight, and we have the NIT and Rando College hoops. Do you have anything tonight? I will be on Xavier tonight.
15:46
That, that's, that's the one I like the most of those two games, and I think those six key games can be pretty toss-up-y, as we saw last night with the, the seesaw back and forth and the frenetic final minute.
15:56
But, uh, I like Xavier against Texas. I think they're a better coached team. They're both teams pretty reliant on, on guard shot making, and I just trust the shot makers a little more on Xavier.
16:07
Conwell's 38 points in the Big East tournament showed he's really gonna show up in the postseason. Uh, and there's a little sneaky revenge angle here on the 2023 NCAA tournament when Texas beat Xavier in the Sweet 16.
16:20
Uh, Deshaun Miller was here, Zach Freemantle, Xavier's big man, was here, and Jerome Hunter, uh, their, their, uh, forward off the bench was there.
16:27
So maybe a little extra incentive for a team I already think is better coached and, and just a little bit better overall. Okay. Um, just making fun, by the way. You didn't have to come down here. Where are you?
16:37
Are you mid-strip? [laughs] Where are you? Mid-strip, north strip, south strip? We wanna narrow you down so the paparazzi gets to you. Sapphire, I know. Where are you? We're, we are mid-strip.
16:44
Yeah, no, do you want my room number, see if people come pound on the door? [laughs] Social Security number, all that. Yeah, be good. Yeah, yeah, you got it. What'd you say, Sapphire, right? Yeah. [laughs] I got that.
16:52
All right. Yeah. [laughs] Let's, let's do this, uh, let's do this for, since the, uh, the way that this goes chronologically on Thursday and Friday is it's kind of groups of four, right?
17:01
We play eight games before there's a little mi- not, this is not really a mini break, but there is kind of a natural break in the middle. But let's do this in groups of four chronologically.
17:10
So we'll start with Thursday morning when we are, uh, just leaving air tomorrow. Creighton and Louisville will, uh, start the festivities.
17:19
Creighton, Louisville, High Point, Purdue, Montana, Wisconsin, and SIU Edwardsville, Houston, which is the lowest line total in the entire round of 64. We'll start with that group of four.
17:30
Creighton, Louisville, High Point, Purdue, Montana, Wisconsin, SIU Edwardsville, Houston. Any plays in that first group?
17:38
I'm gonna, I'm gonna play Louisville small in the opener, but that's one I'm, I'm not overly strong feeling about. It's just the first game. I gotta get something out there.
17:45
I feel like I lose the first game every single year, so that's, that's not one I'm gonna push people to follow. I like the total in the second game, though. High Point, Purdue, the over, sitting at 153 and a half.
17:55
I'm actually surprised it hasn't moved at all this, this, uh, this week, but I think both these teams are just gonna score like crazy against each other.
18:04
Purdue's ball screen offense against High Point's drop coverage defense I think should really light them up.
18:10
Braden Smith living in the mid-range pull-up jumpers, and if they do end up sending help, he's such a great passer, and I, I don't know that High Point's got a great answer for Trey Kaufman Renz, uh, as a post-up guy.
18:21
But on the other end, uh, High Point's got a ton of talent. They, they really mined the transfer portal for some down transfer guys, and they've got scorers that can get downhill.
18:30
Uh, Purdue's got no rim defense, one of the worst two-point percentage defenses in the entire country.
18:35
I, I think both teams can score at will, and the fact that they're gonna score Should let it get up and down a little bit. Team's not getting stops. So I, I think that sets up well for, for a lot of points there.
18:45
And you mentioned the low total in Houston SIUE. I'm gonna be playing that first half under.
18:51
Uh, I think Houston's defense is just gonna be a major rude awakening for SIUE, who hasn't seen anything like that, uh, for a long, long time, and especially not in the OVC.
19:01
And maybe that game loosens up in the second half when it turns into a blowout, so I'm gonna try to guard against that by just playing the first half under, uh, and maybe even the SIUE first half team total under if I really wanna get specific with it.
19:14
All right.
19:14
High point Purdue total is 153.5, and the, uh, Houston SIU Edwardsville, uh, game total is 126.5, and, uh, Jim's gonna play the first half under, and maybe the SIU Edwardsville team total under in the first half as well.
19:26
Next group of games, Alabama State, Auburn, obviously a 32-point spread there. McNeese, Clemson, VCU, BYU, and Georgia, Gonzaga. What are you doing with that group? Man, this, this, this is a tough one.
19:38
I, the, all these one-seed spreads are so high, I'm, I'm kind of like th- it's up to the favorite. Like, does Auburn wanna win by 40? 'Cause they can.
19:46
Uh, and I, I just, I, I'm not really willing to, to gamble much on that. My favorite in this group is the McNeese, Clemson under. Um, 133.5, maybe you can find 134 out there in the market. I still like it at 133.5.
20:00
I just think both teams, the way they defend i- is more to slow you down. Like Clemson will throw out a press, but it's truly just to make you eat up the shot clock.
20:09
Uh, they have the second-longest average defensive possession length in the entire country per KenPom.
20:15
Just really make you get into the shot clock, take some, some tough jumpers late as your back is against the wall there. And McNeese is somewhat similar.
20:23
Uh, and, and they've also shown a propensity to slow it down when they play top competition.
20:27
I think back to the, they played at Alabama in Tuscaloosa in November, and it, it was like one of the slower games Alabama's played this season. So I think as they play up in competition, they're willing to slow it down.
20:38
Clemson really wants to slow it down, so low possession game there. Hopefully the athleticism and size on both sides keeps the efficiency down. I like that under 134, 133.5. What about tomorrow night then?
20:50
Wofford, uh, Tennessee, Arkansas, Kansas, Yale, A&M, Drake, Missouri to start things out. Oh man, Drake, Missouri could be painful for me, Gil. [laughs] I'm not excited about that one.
21:02
Just the, the stylistic clash between the slow-down Drake well-coached team and, and uptempo Missouri. Uh, but I think my favorite here is Yale.
21:10
Uh, I, I will acknowledge that the spot is not awesome, having played on Sunday and then having to ship west and play Thursday at, uh, altitude in Denver a- against a really physical team, but I just think Yale sets up well in the matchup.
21:24
Like, they can battle on the defensive glass. They've got some real size, one of the rare Ivy teams that has big size and athleticism. And then they're just simply the better shot-making team.
21:34
John Poulakis, you know, was a bit of a star in March last year against Auburn. I think he can do the same against Texas A&M that's really compact defensively and lets you shoot over the top.
21:44
And then Bez Mbeng, their, Yale's point guard, is a three-time Ivy Defensive Player of the Year. Perfect guy to throw at Wade Taylor and, and hopefully take him away.
21:51
As long as they're on the defensive glass, I, I really like that matchup for Yale. Uh, Jim is a Mizzou grad for those who missed, uh, why he's, uh- Yeah. Yeah... not looking forward to that.
22:00
And then finally, we got 30 seconds. Utah State, UCLA, and Omaha, St. John's, UCSD, and Michigan, and UNC Wilmington, Texas Tech. Anything in that final group? I'm jumping on UC San Diego. Love the matchup.
22:11
I think they forced a million turnovers in that one against Michigan.
22:15
Uh, and then my favorite one of the first round here, I love these first to 10, first to 15 bets, you know, and I'm gonna go Omaha first to 10, first to 15. They make threes. You just catch St.
22:25
John's a little sleepy, and then that's a, that's a fun little plus money cash there to cap the night. All right. We'll do Friday's games with Jim.
22:32
We'll get his, uh, Elite Eight, Final Four, and champion on the other side as well. Jim Root from Three Man Weave right here courtesy of Progressive Guest Line on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:43
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Are you ready to take your sports betting to the next level? The sharp plays at sharpplays.com is your secret weapon.
22:59
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Get access to the best betting insights at sharpplays.com. Gil Alexander, Kelly, uh, Bidlin here as well. Um, Jim Root joins us once again, one-third of the Three Man Weave crew.
23:47
And before we launch into the, uh, Friday games, uh, chronologically, we'll do them once again on Friday in, in groups of four.
23:54
Um, what Jim was referring to in the last segment, again, for, for those who are new to sports betting, the first to 10, the first to 15.
24:00
So sports books, and I wanna give Jay Rude, uh, my buddy, former vice president of racing sports at, uh, MGM, credit for this. He was the first person to put these up.
24:08
At MGM Books, I don't know, was it like 10 years ago, 11 years ago? Somewhere in that pocket. Sounds right. You would be in an MGM book. They, they tried first to 20 and then the first to 10.
24:18
First to 20 was too favorable for the books. First to 10 was too favorable for the bettors. First to, first to 15 was the proper strike zone.
24:26
But the biggest cheer in any sports book during any game was if a dog got to 15 before the favorite did. Mm-hmm.
24:33
And then that same group of people cheering that they won that bet would then turn, because they're all betting the favorite anyway, and so they would root for the other team the rest of the way. It, it's still- Yeah...
24:41
it's still, I think, my favorite just being in Las Vegas for a big sporting event, and if you're just randomly in one of the big books- Awesome... like Circa. Yeah.
24:50
And you, you ha- you most likely have no idea what's going on, right? When someone hits 15 in the second game of the NCAA tournament in the ha-Half the place goes nuts. You're like, "What? Wait, I don't get it."
25:03
That is so great "I don't get it. We're in the first half. The score is 15 to nine." I remember some of those great Kentucky teams fading them first 15. It's always like a $2 cash.
25:10
It's like, you know, ba- basically hitting, like, you know, a s- a sucky baseball team against the, uh, the best team in baseball on a given night in a fif- in a s- race to 15 point kind of thing in every one of these games.
25:21
Jim joins us once again @, uh, Second Chance Points, @3MW_CBB for all of Three Man Weave stuff. Let's go to Friday, Jim. Uh, first group of four games when we get off the air here.
25:31
The first to tip on Friday will be Baylor Mississippi State. Also, uh, early Robert Morris Alabama, Lipscomb Iowa State, and Colorado State Memphis.
25:40
They just keep sta- sticking us with a challenging eight, nine game to start the day. So I'm, I'm staying [laughs] away from Baylor Mississippi State, but I like Memphis.
25:48
That- that's been one of my favorite bets throughout, as soon as this bracket came out and the lines, uh, and we saw that Colorado State was favored.
25:54
I, I know Colorado State's ahead of Memphis in KenPom and, and Bart Torvik and some of the predictive sites, so that's, that's kind of why the line is where it is.
26:02
But that's based on all games, and Memphis is terrible as a big favorite. That's kind of kept their analytical rankings down all season.
26:10
But when they're across from a team that's e- equal or, or even better than them, uh, when they're an underdog, they've been awesome this year. Against top 50 competition, they're a top 25 team.
26:21
Against top 50 teams, Colorado State is 100th for Bart Torvik.
26:24
So this kind of game is where Memphis is better, and maybe it's gonna play out like UNC did last night, where that's the right level of competition for Memphis, for U- for Memphis, for UNC.
26:36
So I like getting e- even a point or anything, or just taking the plus money money line with Memphis against Colorado State. And plus, get to fade the Mountain West again there, Gil.
26:44
I, I can't, uh, I can't take any issue with that after how it went last night. A lot of Colorado State love out here for Cali- uh, for, uh, for the Mountain West team, but, uh, Memphis just got athletes, man.
26:54
I, I'm with you on that. Second flurry of games on Friday. Vandy Saint Mary's, Carolina after their destruction of San Diego State yesterday against Ole Miss. Grand Canyon Maryland and Norfolk State and Florida.
27:07
Yeah, I like Saint Mary's and North Carolina here. Um, both match-up wise. I think Saint Mary's is gonna slow Vanderbilt down. I mean, Saint Mary's slows Gonzaga down three times a year and, and frustrates them.
27:18
I think they can do that against Vandy. And Saint Mary's one of the best rebounding teams in the country. Vandy's really small up front.
27:25
They sacrifice size for speed in recruiting, and I, I think Saint Mary's can out-physical them, handle them on the glass.
27:30
And as long as Saint Mary's doesn't turn it over a ton, which I do not think they will, uh, I, I think they're gonna be okay there, so laying the, the three and a half or the four.
27:39
And then UNC in a tight spread, I was a little surprised to see them favored, but, uh, you know, the difference between pick'em and, and one and a half isn't all that much. And I just think it's a wonderful match up.
27:50
Uh, Ole Miss is, is, is a little smaller defensively, so they switch a ton.
27:55
Their goal is to keep you on the perimeter, force you to play isolation, and North Carolina is, like, totally content in isolation, whether it's RJ Davis, Seth Trimble, uh, even Cadeau getting downhill.
28:06
They've been a great isolation offense all season, both in frequency and in efficiency.
28:11
I think that ends up setting well, setting up well for them, and, you know, we often see these play-in teams be real successful i- in the 11-6 game in the second round.
28:18
I think the Heels are gonna be the next one in line there. Yeah, Heels favored by one in the aforementioned game, and, uh, Saint Mary's favored by four.
28:27
And once again, what, what, uh, Jim was talking about with the first four, first four team has reached the round of 32, meaning they win their first round game, 12 of the last 13 years.
28:36
At least one first four team has gotten to the round of 32 12 of the last 13 years. To the, uh, evening games on Friday. Troy Kentucky, New Mexico Marquette, Akron Arizona, Oklahoma Connecticut.
28:51
I'm certainly tempted to, to fade the Mountain West again with Marquette and going against New Mexico. It, it, since 2006, the Mountain West is 33% against the spread in NCAA tournament games.
29:02
It's, it's pretty staggering. Uh, so thinking about Marquette, uh, sure I love Shaka Smart as a favorite. He's more of an underdog type of coach. So instead, I'm looking at the over in Akron Arizona.
29:13
Uh, Akron is built to play up-tempo. They play four guards basically at all times. They've got four guys, like, 6'3" and smaller on the floor, and Arizona is going to dominate them in the paint.
29:25
Uh, I know Tommy Lloyd's has his str- had his struggles in the NCAA tournament, Gil. I know you're not a [laughs] huge fan yourself, but, uh, this is the match up they can, they can thrive.
29:33
Getting up and down, high possession game. This isn't Princeton that's gonna slow them down and make them execute in the half court.
29:39
I think this one is, is set up well for a lot of points, uh, back and forth, and potentially even an Arizona, you know, 20-point win given their strength in the paint.
29:48
I, I love that you remember my disdain for Tommy Lloyd through the years. [laughs] Thank you, Jim. I sure do. [laughs] Yeah. All right.
29:54
And then, uh, we, we don't have four yet obviously lined for the late games on Friday, because we have, uh, two games, uh, two teams still to be decided tonight. But Bryant Michigan State, Liberty Oregon on Friday night.
30:05
Anything in either of those two? I'm thinking about Michigan State.
30:10
Uh, the numbers a tad high, but Bryant is a little bit like Akron, where they're gonna play at a breakneck pace, and that does great for them in the America East when they're the most athletic team and can kind of take down Maine and whoever they're playing against and, and just out-athlete them, out-physical them.
30:27
But you're not gonna do that against Michigan State. That front line is just entirely too physical. They're gonna dominate the glass.
30:33
I mean, Bryant played Grand Canyon this year, another team that's, like, roughly equivalent to them in athletes. It was a 91 possession game, and Bryant lost by 46.
30:42
And their, their leading scorer was out, but I, I just fear their style playing up against a team with more talent, and Michigan State's certainly plenty well-coached.
30:52
So that, that's one where I'm leaning towards the favorite.
30:55
Um, it, it, we don't know the match up yet for Illinois, as you mentioned, but I kind of like whoever wins, whether it is Xavier, who I'm betting on in the first four game, or Texas Uh, I just think they're kind of set up offensively to take advantage of Illinois' defensive structure, which is basically, we'll let you live in the mid-range and take jumpers.
31:14
But then Xavier and Texas are happy to do that because they've got real good off-the-dribble shot creators.
31:19
So it, I think that ended up being a tough draw for Illinois, uh, probably right again with the, the play-in team.
31:24
We'll, we'll go back to that stat you mentioned at the top that, uh, those teams have been really successful over the years. Yeah. It's interesting.
31:30
Illinois is, uh, we got all kinds of opinions 'cause Will Hill has them going to the Elite Eight as well. So Elite Eight versus a first round knockout.
31:37
Uh, speaking of the Elite Eight, who do you have in your Elite Eight? Yeah, Elite Eight, uh, I'm looking at, at a lot of chalk for the one seeds. I've got all four one seeds making it.
31:47
Uh, so Auburn, Duke, Florida, Houston all getting there. I mean, they're, they're all, like,
31:51
not generationally good teams, but they're darn close, uh, just with the way they grade out analytically and I, I think they're all that good. Um, I would go with Michigan State and Auburn in the south regional.
32:03
Um, in the west region I got Florida and Texas Tech. Midwest, Houston, and I've had a real tough time with who to pair them against- Hmm... 'cause I don't trust really any of those teams.
32:14
I'm thinking about a Texas, Xavier, uh, Elite Eight run there out of the, out of the play-in game. So taking on Houston there in the Elite Eight.
32:21
And then Duke and Wisconsin in the east is where I'm, where I'm landing on that one. Final four, all the ones?
32:29
No, I'm, I'm gonna, I'm gonna knock one out here, and it kind of is the darling that, that everybody's into right now. I'm gonna say Texas Tech beats Florida in the west regional final. I, I think Florida's fantastic.
32:40
I, I get, I'm impressed with them every time I watch them. But I picked Texas Tech to the Final Four in the preseason, and they haven't done a whole lot to really knock me off that take.
32:49
Um, and I think they're healthier, especially by that game. Darian Williams, Chance McMillen will hopefully be close to 100%. I think they can somewhat match Florida's physicality.
32:58
And, uh, Texas Tech's my surprise to go with Houston, Duke, and Auburn. And who wins the championship game? Who over who? Oh, I've gone back and forth with this.
33:09
Auburn was my preseason pick, but they've kind of lost their joy. They seem to be playing under pressure rather than enjoying themselves, enjoying playing basketball. So I'm gonna go with Houston.
33:19
Houston taking down Texas Tech in an all Texas final game there. Wow. And a victory for the formula it would be. Uh, three man weave podcast, you go bracket by bracket, Jim? Yep, every single game in the first round.
33:32
Check it out. It's out there, two plus hours right now on our podcast feed. Two plus hours. We only did an hour 15. They got two plus hours. I'm halfway through. Thank you, Jim. Enjoy. Kelly on golf. Falspar next.
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A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Take your betting to a whole 'nother level with First Bet, whether it's Santa Anita, Gulfstream Park, or the road to the Kentucky Derby and Preakness.
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34:13
Bet smarter today at firstbet.com. Can we talk about, before we get back into, uh, country clubbing, tennis and golf, could, uh, and college hoops with JBT of course. Heavy on the college hoops. 24 hours away.
34:27
24 hours and change away from March Madness. Uh, can I just give a brief White Lotus review? White Lotus season three. Have you been watching this at all? No. No, no, I was, I was waiting for...
34:34
Remember I was waiting for you guys to tell me if it, if it actually got good, then I'd start. You said, you said- Did you watch, did you watch seasons one and two? Yeah.
34:41
'Cause you said the first couple episodes were pretty slow/bad, right? All right. Season one, a masterpiece. In- incredible, yeah. A masterpiece of the da- of, of the nuances and the dynamic of human behavior, right?
34:53
You had the, uh, that, uh, couple with the teenagers who had the friend over. Mm-hmm.
34:57
Like, the dynamic between the teenagers, the dynamic from teenagers to parent, the dynamic between the parents, like, everything was so nuanced. Remember there was that young couple, he was super controlling.
35:07
She wanted to be independent. Like, it was just brilliant. It was fantastic. I- in fact, it was so good, I believe the second season's a little overrated because of it. That's probably true.
35:16
There was a bit of a drop-off on season two. Yeah. Like, I still liked it. There was st- it was still great. It's all, by the way, it's all against great, beautiful backdrops.
35:24
Maui the first year, Sicily the second season, this year Thailand. The, th- the second season was great, particularly between the two young couples, right?
35:32
That those kind of, like, you know, jealousy dynamics, um, the Italian, you know, the, the guy from, uh, Sopranos, what's his name in real... Anyway, the three, the grandfather, father, and young son- Mm-hmm...
35:42
and Italians that, that, with the, with the, with the lady, the ladies of the, uh, the hotel who were working there, if you will. Mm-hmm. Anyway, it was great. Season three took, i- has taken forever to get going.
35:53
And we're five episodes in. By the way, that's the other thing. Season one was six episodes. Season two was seven episodes. This is eight episodes. That's part of the problem. Oh.
36:01
So they took way longer, I think, Mike White, who's the genius behind this, Mike White, uh, not that same guy. Th- he took longer to get this going.
36:09
So it's like five episodes in and I'm still like, "Uh, I don't know why I'm watching." This is where... Do you ever watch Game of Thrones? No, I didn't watch that.
36:16
So like this, the Game of Thrones had a similar problem, in my opinion- Yeah... of like, it, it, it got so popular, right?
36:22
But like season three, four, five, you're like, all right, there's like a million storylines going on that they have to somehow conclude- Yeah... at the end of this show.
36:32
[laughs] And the last like, like the last season or two, Gil, you were like, "Oh, I remember when it took a whole season for them, for them to travel from this location to this." Yes.
36:41
And now it's the next episode they're there. Well, that was most famously, you remember Lost? Mm, yeah, Lost. Oh, I just- Same problem... I was obsessed with Lost. Me too.
36:47
And I was like, "How are they gonna put all these together?" [laughs] The final episode you're like, "This was terrible." You're like, "Wait, they didn't answer this, this, this. They skipped through this all quick."
36:55
How disappointing. Yeah. Anyway, season three, not quite as good so far.
36:59
See, now maybe they'll magically make it amazing in the last three episodes, but I, I seriously doubt it Although there, although one dynamic is cool between- I didn't really get an answer though, so should I fire it up?
37:08
'Cause I thought you guys were starting to get a little crazy about last episode. Stormy was, but I'm not into, I, I still- Really? I didn't think it was that great. Man, I'm holding.
37:13
The, the, the, there is a dynamic between three ladies that is great. Okay. Which is essentially, I'll just give you the conceit of it, once w- any one of the three disappears, the other two talk smack about her.
37:23
So it's a, that's a funny little thing that goes on. This, this is like our Michael Craig. Yeah. Like, I need the hold f- hold cancel fire from you, okay? [laughs] I'm holding right now. I'm still, I'm still holding.
37:32
I miss Michael Craig. I miss Philly Mike. Time to country club. Let's go country clubbing everybody. Yeah. Bam. [upbeat music] This guy's got such great hair.
37:47
You ever been so happy, like that guy on the left there, where your mouth just stays open like him when he's smiling? No, probably never. [laughs] Probably, I've probably never been that happy, Gil, no.
37:55
That guy's starring in a B-roll, a commercial of some kind. It's just fantastic. I gave out, uh, three tennis picks earlier, all dogs. Two on the men's side, uh, Fabian Marozsan against, uh, Gael Monfils.
38:08
Also, uh, I'm on, uh, Sebastian Baez against Alexander Bublik. And on the ladies side, big dog, +237, Yulia Grabher, spelled phonetically Julia Grab Her, over Taylor Katarina Grant, +237. So three tennis plays.
38:24
As far as the future, uh, Naomi Osaka, who was our one future, I have her at the quarter, Q2, seven to one, and also for the, uh, tournament at 66 to one.
38:33
She barely got by her first round opponent, uh, Staru, Staru Dupsova yesterday. She was down five-love before you can blink. She came back, she won it. Her body language was terrible, so we'll see how that goes.
38:45
But as far as what exists now, and the, and the big players besides Osaka have not really started yet. Um, but you have the usual suspects.
38:53
Do we have those odds by any chance on, or, or we didn't, or I'll just do 'em on the, uh- Mm-hmm... screen here. But they, um,
38:58
you know, y- again, what I love about this on the ladies side is we have a lot of, uh, and this is, uh, this is, uh, directed at me, right? 'Cause I, I am such a Iga proponent, uh, Iga Swiatek.
39:10
I wish that the betting odds felt like those haters did. I wish Iga's numbers would, would bounce. But they know what I know. She's awesome. So her numbers are still not good.
39:19
And really, I played her in her quarter at minus 115. I know mathematically it's just a, uh, it's not that, uh, smart of a play.
39:27
I didn't play her to win the whole thing 'cause it's not a, it's not a juicy enough number, but I could d- totally see her winning it. But, um, it's not like her numbers are getting, what is she, three to one?
39:36
She's currently three to one at DraftKings, yeah. Yeah, three to one to win this, so, um- Sabalenka the only one shorter. Sabalenka's the, uh, short shot.
39:43
Sabalenka, who lost in the Indian Wells f- uh, finals to a 17-year-old Mirra Andreeva.
39:50
And, um, if you wanna look at the entire sort of thing on the, on the ladies side, Sabalenka +225, Iga plus, uh, or excuse me, three to one.
39:57
Mirra is plus 675, and everybody else is double digits, starting with Coco at, uh, 10 to one. Shop around for all these.
40:04
So again, the, the only value I found was on Osaka, who, um, after her first [laughs] after her first round win, and I put win in quotes 'cause it was not pretty, she's still 50 to one even after that.
40:17
Um, so there really is no play besides that to me, because I do think that, uh, the only reason Osaka was a play 'cause it's a weak quarter, and otherwise everybody's too short to play.
40:25
And on the men's side, uh, Carlos Alcaraz, two to one is the short shot. Novak is eight to one. Zverev is 10 to one. I did not make a play, by the way, Indian Wells champ Jack Draper also 10 to one.
40:36
I did not make a play on the, uh, men's side. What are you smiling at? Uh, these odds. Djokovic n- I'm at DraftKings right now. Djokovic nine to one, Jack Draper 10 to one? Yeah, well.
40:47
That's the difference between those bl- two players? Well, I mean, look- Right now?... Djokovic is, uh- I know he just won, but... Djokovic is not a young man. What is he, 38? Might have to make a principle bet here.
40:57
Thir- Nine to one. 38. No, I'm with you on that, by the way. I mean, look, this is, uh, this is one of those things where you wonder, okay, what, w- does Djokovic care about anything as much as he does the Slams? No.
41:08
Right. Um, so you know, will he get far? He's the fourth seed here, by the way. So he's properly, I, I hate to say, but I think he's properly priced. Nine to one. I know. I know.
41:20
When's the last time he's entered, he's, he's started a tournament at o- odds this long? I could not tell you. I mean, it's gotta be years, right? Years and years. Thir- he's gonna be 38 in May.
41:31
Completely unfair question of me to ask, Gil, right now. No, no. But, like, that's, right? It's been, it's been forever. I don't ever remember seeing odds that long.
41:36
Like, there's not one he entered where he was kinda hurt or something and was still this long. E- even when, even the tournaments he entered where he was kinda hurt, he was still only, like, four to five to one.
41:45
If you play anything here, I would play something, uh, in the double digits, and I would take, like, a rando player. Like, I would take a, uh, Daniil Medvedev at 14 to one, something like that.
41:56
Now I, I did not, just to be clear, but if I were, that's how I would play it. Miami fast, hard court. So the o- again, for the futures market, just to let you know what they are, but the only thing I played was Osaka.
42:06
To golf, Daniil. The Valspar. The Valspar, yes, last event of the Florida Swing. Uh, you are going to see odds board, Tommy Fleetwood your short shot at 11 to one. Xander Schauffele 12 to one. Sepp Straka 16 to one.
42:18
Everybody else 20 to one or longer. Uh, what you got here, Gil, is a lot of kinda everybody starting to prepare for the Masters, right?
42:25
So everybody who's either hot right now or, or needs to work on some things plays in this [laughs] tournament usually. Uh, it's actually, it's a great tournament.
42:33
Just runs into, you know, first week of March Madness, obviously takes all the headlines, but this is one of the tougher courses you see on the PGA Tour.
42:40
Uh, if you're doing, doing your own handicapping at home, uh, this is a heavy, heavy less than driver course. You're gonna see them club down, uh, fairly often.
42:49
This is driving distance, distance off the tee, third shortest on the PGA Tour because of how much clubbing down, uh, you have to do. So keep that in mind.
42:57
Heavy approach, long approach course is what you're gonna see here. A little bit of scrambling gonna be important. Uh, pu- hot putter obviously comes into play.
43:06
As far as what I did betting-wise for this, um, light on the outrights. Played Sepp Straka, my guy, the Big Ox. We're going back to him, Gil. 18 to one in a, uh, little bit weaker field here.
43:17
Uh, played him, and then 35 to one on Shane Lowry. Biggest thing I can say about this tournament, though, uh, watch w- your timing on bets. Right now it looks like it is setting up for a bit of a wave advantage.
43:28
It looks like the winds are gonna pick up late in the afternoon tomorrow, and then will remain through the morning on Friday.
43:35
So right now it does appear like there's gonna be a little bit of a wave advantage for those, uh, for everybody that's teeing off early on Thursday and then playing in the afternoons, uh, on Friday.
43:44
Lowry is one of those guys that's in the afternoon on Thursday. It's a little bit why you're getting the number that you are on him. Uh, but too big of a number for me to pass up. Top 10s real quick.
43:52
Fleetwood, uh, Straka, and then Nicolai Højgaard. Also played top 20s on Fleetwood, Straka, and then Michael Kim, going back to him. Matchups, Michael Kim over Tom Kim, Alex Smally over Victor Hovland, which I love.
44:04
[upbeat music] Uh, Vic- Vic's a mess right now. And then Grayson Sieg over Matt Kuchar. Should I give my three tennis picks that I did not play that are destined to win? I'll, yeah, let's, yeah.
44:13
Because I did not play them? Burel, Bondar, and Boulter on the ladies side. Oh, the Bs, like NASCAR. Burel, Bondar, and Boulter.
44:21
Didn't play 'em, so now I will be actively rooting against them, just so I don't feel bad about it. Play as you, uh, deem necessary. JBT, all his college hoops plays, March Madness next
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