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Mar 17, 2025
A Numbers Game | March 17, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | March 17, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:35
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Monday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course Sirius XM channel 158.
0:19
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin in the hizzy on a selection Sunday, post-selection Sunday, Monday morning. How you doing, man? Doing great. Doing great, just- Brack- brackets filled? You already got your champions?
0:30
I filled out a bracket this morning, Gil. I don't know if I would stand behind it with much money, but yes, I filled out a bracket. Are you one of these people who does multiple brackets? Depends.
0:40
That depends year to year. Oh, one of those. Yeah, depends year to year. You're one of those. As opposed to what? Just, like, one bracket and stand by it for every contest that you enter? Yeah, man.
0:50
I mean, like, there's some though that you enter with multiple entries. Well, here's the thing. We're gonna get into bracket strategy here momentarily, uh, on the show. We'll do, we'll maybe not do it this segment.
0:57
We'll do it next segment, which is, yes, there, there's a, there's a way to answer that question. There is a reason to have multiple brackets. Mm-hmm. Right.
1:05
Um, I'm just referring to those who are in the same contest, and they're like, "Here's four different brackets. Let me see if I can w- win this."
1:11
Um, by the way, we have our own bracket challenge here at VSiN, um- That we do... $5,000 first prize, and, uh, that's about against the spread as well. So again, you gotta know the rules of everything you're doing.
1:22
Are you gonna enter that? Oh, I'll be in there. Yeah, I've- You are not, you are not eligible for the win, nor am I.
1:27
I feel like I've got three unread emails in my inbox that need to, uh, need to be taken care of with things. Ah. That's one of them, yes. You should really check your email.
1:34
I've been telling you for years now, you should really check your email. But, but, [laughs] that's right. Gil's been- [laughs]... Gil's been on me about that for years.
1:43
[laughs] Uh, the, uh, March Madness betting guide best bets, we gotta get our best bets in. Yeah. Adam Burke working late on that. TBD for the show today. TBD because he's been working late.
1:53
Yeah, I, I think, poor guy, I think he's sick. I think he was up till, like, 4:00 AM working on that stuff last night, so.
1:58
Well, we will have Tim Murray on the show to give his, uh, bracket thoughts, how, uh, selection, the selection committee did.
2:04
I'm gonna, I'm gonna leave the selection committee stuff for others, like the Tim Murrays and the Wes Reynoldses of the world.
2:10
Pardon me, Wes is gonna be on the show a little later as well to talk both golf and, uh, college hoops, um, because obviously, uh, people are outraged at North Carolina, um, going, what was it, one in 12 in, in quad one games and, and still getting in because the, uh, the selection committee chair, Bubba Cunningham,
2:31
uh, we sh- we should all be named Bubba by the way, or get the nickname Bubba at some point.
2:34
He's also, uh, UNC's athletic director, but he was out of the room when they made all the decisions about North Carolina, so fear not, Kelly, there was no, no shenanigans whatsoever. He recused himself, right?
2:45
They all recuse themselves, and they leave the room physically when things are, uh, discussed about their own school. So anyway, somehow North Carolina still got in without him being in the room. Imagine.
2:53
It's like nobody would wanna disappoint the chair or something. Yeah, we'll get, W- Wes is gonna have some thoughts on that because Wes is an Indiana guy, so I'm sure he's, uh, doubly outraged.
3:02
But, um, again, you know, those are arguments over the 35th best team in the country or something like that. Doesn't help us win bets, and, uh, we'll do brackets and bets all day today.
3:10
And by the way, at, uh, noon Pacific, 3:00 PM Eastern, that is when Todd Wishnev, Will Hill, and I convene for the Beating the Book Megapod, where we literally will go through every single game in the first round, and we will talk about it from an ATS perspective and also from a brackets perspective.
3:26
So we will do all of that. Uh, first things first, though, by the way, Carl Sack on the NBA as well today. Uh, first things first, a update to the formula. Shall we do that first?
3:35
The tried and true college basketball formula, the formula that has, uh, that has isolated the eventual national champion in almost all cases over the last 29 to 34 years, depending on the category.
3:49
A couple of them are just over 20 years. But you get it, more than two decades, more than three decades of this.
3:54
With a rare exception, this has isolated the winner, and let me just say what I said last week once again, which is I've never felt the formula to be more vulnerable than it is this year because of one team.
4:07
Again, the criteria, last 34 champs, more assists than turnovers. 32 of the last 34 had a head coach with Sweet 16 experience. File that one away.
4:17
That's 2014, the exception, 2014, Kevin Ollie with UConn, the Shabazz Napier UConn Huskies, 2023, Danny Hurley and the UConn Huskies.
4:25
28 of the last 29 champs went into the tournament with at least three wins versus teams in the top 10% of RPI. That's how long we've been doing this, that we still use RPI in this formula.
4:36
The exception, the 2014 UConn Huskies. Last 29 champs had a top 75 strength of schedule. And then the two KenPom categories. 21 of the last 22 champs were in the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency at KenPom.
4:48
The exception, the 2014 UConn Huskies. And then 21 of the last 22 champs were in the top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom. The only exception, the only non-UConn exception in all of this,
5:01
the 2021 Baylor Bears, who finished 22nd. So we've done this three weeks. This is our fourth week. This is the selection Sunday, post-selection Sunday version of this, our fourth installment.
5:12
The first three weeks, in case you missed it, the three teams this year that qualify for this, very simply, Auburn, Duke, and Houston. Those were the three teams.
5:22
This week, Auburn, Duke, and Houston still qualify, but we have added two teams. Two teams have entered. We alluded to this earlier, uh, at some point last week. Iowa State now qualifies.
5:36
Iowa State now qualifies for this, uh, 'cause they have entered now the top 20 of both adjusted, uh, offense and defensive efficiency at KenPom.
5:44
The problem with Iowa State, of course, here is that, uh, now they have injury issues that they're going to have to deal with no matter how long they play in this tournament.
5:54
So that's the issue with Iowa State, even though they enter the formula. And then the fifth, the fifth team is Tennessee. Tennessee finally gets there in the offensive a- adjusted efficiency over at KenPom.
6:06
So Tennessee is the fifth team that qualifies. Again, this is to win it all. Now, why do I believe that this is the, the year where the formula is the most vulnerable?
6:15
And I don't ever remember, Kelly, ever having a year going into the tournament, going into the big dance where I thought, "Oh, the formula's not gonna make it happen." I'm always confident in it. I just think Florida,
6:26
and I think this is a consensus opinion right now, right? Florida seems to be the best team in the country right now, if you absolutely just hold people to that.
6:35
Um, and Florida only, the only except- the only reason Florida does not qualify, 'cause they qualify in everything else, is that Sweet 16 head coach exception, that Todd Golden has not coached in a Sweet 16 prior to the year of the tournament in question.
6:50
And so that's the case right here. But we already have two exceptions to that, as we mentioned with Hurley and Ollie. Could this be exception number three? Yep. That's where the formula stands.
6:59
I mean, that one we bring, you, you bring up almost every year. It's like that, that's a, that's a trend until it's broken, right? [laughs] It's a trend. So you got a good team, it b- it gets broken.
7:08
Yeah, I mean, again, all these, we're talking, you know, 30 years here, right? Well, generally speaking, the average of all these categories. I mean, this is, it's a rare exception. We'll see.
7:17
Uh, obviously Florida, uh, has to get there still, six games to win before so, uh, before they, uh, can, uh, proclaim the formula busted.
7:25
The other thing is, um, with this, Joe Peta did a great job of, of uncovering this this year, because one of my quick reactions to the bracket is I think it's really, again, the reason that we do the formula, the reason that it's there, is because it's a reminder that while March Madness is rife with upsets the first weekend, right, and specifically Thursday and Friday, but also Saturday and Sunday to an extent as well, that once you get to the Sweet 16 and beyond, it does become a Chalk McChalkerson kind of event, and that's why the formula works in terms of isolating a champion.
7:58
And then you look at this bracket this year, and I'll, if, I don't know if you saw the ESPN Bracketology show afterwards, and they were asking everybody on the panel, Reece Davis was, you know, "What are your predictions?"
8:08
And they went to Jay Williams, and they went to, uh, Seth Greenberg, they went to Billis. Williams and Billis, Williams and Billis all had, are you ready for this, when they predicted their Elite Eight?
8:20
One, two, one, two, one, two, one, two. Whew. And when it got to their Final Fours, you know what they had? One, one, one, one. I believe our own Greg Peterson had, uh, that as well last night.
8:30
So this is the point I wanna make about this bracket.
8:32
It is really, at, at most, usually your reaction to that kind of prediction in a mainstream media thing, Greg Peterson aside, 'cause we love Greg, but usually when you see that in mainstream media, your reaction is, "Ah, of course that's what they picked.
8:47
Like, it's not gonna be right." Uh, I don't know. Who are you advancing to the Final Four that's not a one? Who are you advancing to the Elite Eight that's not a one or a two? That's an interesting question this year.
8:59
And for those who would immediately raise their hand, [clears throat] pardon me, for those that would immediately raise their hand and say, "Well, how about Michigan State? How about St. John's?"
9:10
Joe Peta uncovered this great thing. Now, Ken Pomeroy, who of course we, we just referred to Ken Pom, we don't even...
9:16
W- Ken Pom is so entrenched in the college basketball culture and the sports culture of America, that we don't even explain it. It's Ken Pomeroy, right?
9:21
He used to be a weatherman, and, uh, then he, uh, turned his, uh, analytics to, uh, from evil to good, right, into college basketball. But one of the things, when he used to tweet, he doesn't tweet anymore.
9:31
Ken Pomeroy doesn't tweet anymore. But when he used to, he talked about how,
9:37
and we, we, we talked with Ed Feng about this last week a little way, so it dovetails nicely in with what we were talking about here on The Numbers Game. This is Ken Pomeroy from a few years back.
9:45
He says, "In the 64 team era," that's since 1985, "there have been 36 teams." Now, he tweeted this two years ago, right?
9:53
"There have been 36 teams to enter the tournament as a one or two seed that weren't ranked, were not ranked in the preseason AP poll.
10:00
They have combined for zero Final Fours, averaging fewer than two wins per tournament." Now, that year he said, "Good luck to Purdue and good luck to Marquette."
10:11
Well, that year, you may, uh, find it interesting to know, that, uh, well, it didn't go out, it didn't go well with Purdue and Marquette either.
10:20
Uh, Purdue lost as a, uh, number one seed to a number 16 seed, Fairleigh Dickinson. We all remember that. And Marquette lost in round two.
10:29
As Joe Peta points out, then last year, just to update the Ken Pom stuff, it applied to Iowa State, who lost in round three as a two seed. So again, let's review that. Now it's 39 teams.
10:40
Updating the Ken Pom, the Ken Pom tweet. 39 teams that ended up, right, as, uh, we can put that tweet up once again. 39 teams here who qualify since 1985, since they went to the 64 team field, right?
10:56
That have been, that, uh, ended the tournament as a one or a two seed that were not ranked in the preseason AP poll. And so who are the two teams this year that this applies to?
11:07
Well, the two teams that a lot of people think might get to the Final Four that aren't number one seeds, but it's Michigan State and St.
11:15
John's, who are both two seeds, that a lot of people, when they look at their bracket this year, like, "Oh, those are the teams that I think have value. Those are the teams that'll get to the Final Four."
11:23
Well, if they do, they will have completely broken this, because of those 39 teams that qualify, five have made their seed. Zero have ever exceeded their seed.
11:36
So a number two seed that has not been in the preseason AP top 25 has never gotten to the Final Four since we've expanded to 64 teams. So put that in your old bracket-making procedure.
11:50
We'll come back, more on college hoop- [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSIN, the-The Sports Betting Network Turn tournament chaos into betting opportunities with a VSiN Pro subscription.
12:04
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12:26
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12:38
That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Sharp Week. You like that graphic? Yeah. Let's go. Very nicely done. We got a lot of fancy Sharp Week graphics going on. We got the bug up in the upper left-hand corner.
12:50
There's bites out of our names. Oh, there is, huh? Yeah, little shark bites. Oh. Yours is closer to your name, by the way. Yeah. Um- Your Twitter handle got affected, my name got affected. [laughs] Uh, this is...
13:01
Let, let me just review real quick in 30 seconds or, or a minute what we just talked about.
13:05
So again, the formula that we've done through the years to isolate the champion, five teams qualify, Duke, Auburn, Houston, Iowa State, and, [clears throat] and, um, Tennessee.
13:17
Florida's an exception 'cause Todd Golden hasn't coached in a Sweet 16 before. Or as we put up on a graphic form here, here it is very nicely, the, uh, green check marks are the team that qualified.
13:27
By the way, those are KenPom adjusted offense and defensive rankings in the parentheses.
13:31
Florida, just because of the Sweet 16 exception, but that's the team that most, and by the way, the betting market says, right, is the short shot to win it all, is Florida. So formula vulnerable.
13:42
The second thing I talked about had to do with, for those filling out brackets and trying to say, "Okay, where's the exception to, you know, making it all four number one seeds that make the Final Four?"
13:53
By the way, the last time all four number one seeds made the Final Four was 2008, right? Or getting it all one, two, one, two, one, two into the, uh, Elite Eight.
14:02
There's the, the biggest sort of reason that the biggest two teams that people come up with typically, anecdotally, are Michigan State and St. John's, both two seeds.
14:10
And KenPom has pointed out, and then Joe Peta updated it, that 39 instances since 1985, since we went to a 64-team tournament, there's been 39 instances of ones or twos, right, tournament ones or twos that did not appear in the pre-season AP Top 25.
14:29
And of those 39 instances, zero of them have ever exceeded their seeding. So a number two seed, for instance, has never gotten past the Elite Eight when they weren't also in the AP Top 25 pre-season.
14:41
Does that make sense? Mm-hmm. Five have made their seeding, but zero of those 39 have exceeded it. So for those s- you know, for those who are like, "Well, what does all that mean?" Right?
14:51
We'll get to some stuff that means nothing. But my answer to, what does all that mean, just because, because a lot of people are gonna be like, "What does that historical stuff mean?"
14:57
Well, this was Ed Feng's point last week, that pre-season AP Top 25 matters because a college basketball season, right, we tend to think of, oh, college, you know, uh, the NFL's only 17 games season, right?
15:11
The, uh, college football's even shorter, especially if you don't go to bowls. But you know, the college basketball season's not all that big of a sample size either. It's roughly 30 games.
15:21
And so there is some wisdom in that top 25 poll in terms of a broader look at those teams or a broader feel for how good they actually are. So anyway, that's just one thing to, uh, what is, what's the expression?
15:33
Put in your pipe and smoke it- Mm-hmm... when you're filling out your brackets. Uh, let me just talk about brackets because again, we're, we're all very close to the sun.
15:40
We'll get ATS picks here coming up from our guest Tim Murray, from Wes Reynolds. I'll have a couple here as well that I think, uh, look big. Can I just give one of them right now? Yeah. What do you got?
15:49
Um, I hang out with a lot of Maryland guys. Know a lot of guys who graduated from the University, University of Maryland.
15:55
They are about as hype on Maryland, uh, as you can imagine, as hyped up on Maryland as you can possibly imagine.
16:01
And I would agree with them that this is the best Maryland team since the 2002 team that won the national title against Indiana, uh, famously of Juan Dixon, Blake, Wilcox fame back in the day. Uh, this is the Crab Five.
16:17
You like that nickname? That's the best nickname- Yeah... I've done in college basketball. Not the Fab Five, the Crab Five. Do you get why? 'Cause Maryland's into crabs. Yeah. [laughs] Crab cakes and basketball.
16:25
Crab cakes and football, baby. [laughs] Um, what was that from? Wedding Planners? Uh, Wedding Crashers. [laughs] Wedding Crashers. Yeah, Wedding Crashers, not Wedding Planners. Yeah.
16:31
Wait, Wedding Planner was the Jennifer Lopez one? Jennifer Lopez. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. That's a little different. Matthew McConaughey? Uh- Am I making that part up? I, I think so. I don't remember. Yeah.
16:40
When Matthew McConaughey only used to do chick flicks, like in the late '90s. That's right, and then he decided, "You know, my career would be better if I didn't do this." [laughs] Yeah.
16:47
Um, so Maryland, obviously, you know, they're, there's a, they're another team. It's all Maryland if it all went right for Maryland.
16:53
Like, if they played like they did against Illinois during the Big E- the Big Ten tournament, uh, you know, you'd think they could beat any team on, on planet Earth.
17:00
By the way, you can bet everyone to win it all, to get to the final- you, to get to the championship game, to get to the Final Four, to get to the Elite Eight, to get to the Sweet 16. Ev- every level. It's awesome. Yeah.
17:13
Every level you can bet, like at a DraftKings for instance. Um, odds to win the West region, by the way, Maryland is the fourth shot behind Florida, Texas Tech, and St. John's, the aforementioned Johnnies.
17:23
Maryland's seven to one. But they play Grand Canyon in the first round. And, uh, and we w- like, we went to the, to the WAC tournament at the Orleans and watched a little Grand Canyon. Um, they good. They real good.
17:36
And they were catching 11 against Maryland, now it's 10. I still think that's a good play, plus 10.
17:41
I don't think Mary- like, Maryland on their best day could blow them out, but I'll, I'll take those 10 points, easy peasy, in round one. And that's the other thing we pointed out also, uh, and this, this exists.
17:51
I wanna give the, the guy the proper credit, but there's someone throwing out somebody, the, there, there's somebody out there throwing out a, uh, tweet about, um, you know, when you look at these 16, 15s, 14s 13, 12 seeds, that kind of thing.
18:06
Eric Haslam did this, uh, on Twitter. Um, let me get Eric's, uh, Eric's Twitter handle correct.
18:13
Um, but he's-- But basically you look at teams that are ranked 16-- uh, that are seeded 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, and you wanna have some sense of how do they perform against teams in the top 100?
18:23
And Grand Canyon is one of these teams that actually does perform credibly. So give me Grand Canyon plus the points. I'll even take it at the 10.
18:30
Um, it's in the account at 11, but I would take it at 10 right here against Maryland.
18:33
But about brackets, 'cause again, we are w- on this network, and, and rightfully so, we're close to the sun and we're, we're betting these ATS.
18:40
But bracket strategy, 'cause 95% of our listeners are still filling out brackets.
18:45
I'm all about survivor, we'll get to that, but, uh, bracket strategy, and I wanna give a shout-out to, uh, Tom Federico and everybody at, at, uh, Team Rankings who used to do this very well. There are
18:56
9.2 quintillion possible combinations to your bracket. I did the math. 9.2 quintillion. You know how many zeros that is? [chuckles] No, I have no idea. Eight- 11? 18 zeros. [laughs] 9.2 quintillion.
19:11
The first thing you have to understand is your scoring system, right? This is what Kelly and I were talking about with, with how many brackets you fill out.
19:17
If you are entering different pools that have different rules, then it makes sense to fill out brackets, uh, different brackets.
19:24
The most, the biggest example of this is, um, if you are in a, just a standard pool that goes two, four, six, eight, 10 or, or two, four, eight, 16 in terms of how many points you get per, per round when you advance, um, you fill it out one way, right?
19:40
You are not incentivized to pick upsets. So, and also by the way, within that, then you have to know the size of your pool.
19:47
The smaller the pool size, let's say you're in a pool with 10 other people, you should be more conservative. The wider it is, 100, 1,000, whatever it is, you should try to be a little more contrarian.
19:58
But when you are in an upset rewarded pool, and those are usually scored, hey, if you successfully pick a 13 over a four, not only do you get the points of that round, of the first round that you would've gotten on any first round win that you cor- correctly predicted, but you also get the nine points additionally, 13 minus four.
20:15
Or a 12 minus five, you get seven, 11 minus six, five, and so on. In those pools, in upset rewarded pools, you should be picking upsets left and right. Yeah. You should be going crazy on them.
20:26
In other words, you should enter that pool knowing and actually understanding that a lot of your picks are going to be wrong. That's a different kind of bracket.
20:37
You shouldn't be upset if you're, you're like, "Well, I don't want all that red mark on my bracket." No, no, that's what you should be doing in that pool.
20:43
So that, that's the one consistent and the biggest money one that I play in every year, Gil, is y- y- uh, you get the points for the seed differential for the upset. Yeah. And that's the, uh...
20:53
Yeah, yeah, you, you fire first, second round, you, you're trying to pick a lot of those u- u- upsets 'cause those points matter so much going forward.
21:00
That's, I mean, those are the biggest, biggest sort of macro advice one could give to brackets are for those who are, you know, new to filling out brackets or new-ish to it and haven't, you know, haven't participated in an upset rewarded pool, that's the, that's the thing you should know.
21:11
Other one I'll add onto that is just I, I assume a lot of our listeners do this already, but if you're on one of the upset, uh, rewarded pools, make sure you're looking at betting lines, [chuckles] right?
21:20
Like there are some- Make sure you're looking at betting lines for that... some of these games that are way tighter or the higher seed is favored, right? We have one of those right now.
21:28
And also, and also when it comes to just, let's say it's not an upset rewarded, let's say it's just your standard one, and a, an upset rewarded, but just a standard one, how do you find out if you w- when I said, okay, a standard pool and it's 100 or 1,000 people, when it's, when it's more than just a small group of people in a, in a bracket pool.
21:45
Look at a site like espn.com to get a sense of the percentage of people that are picking a certain team, and try to be contrarian based on that data.
21:53
'Cause that kind of data from a, from a big site like espn.com is a great tool to sort of- Yep, great tool... play off of. Yep. Um, what else? And, and there's more, right?
22:03
Like we've talked about with Survivor and stuff, a lot of great sites out there that can kind of give you an idea of what- Yeah...
22:08
the percentage of selections are and stuff like that, and that's, uh, you know, depending on how serious you take it and how big your pool is and how much money's involved, you wanna, you wanna use all these tools, uh, [chuckles] to help you out.
22:18
And the other thing is, you know, you hear a lot from, from mainstream media. What's the biggest thing we hear, Kelly? "Oh, you gotta pick a 12 over a five." No, you don't.
22:27
I mean, it might happen that there's an upset there, but a 12 over a five historically is barely more likely to happen than a 13 over a four. There's nothing specific to those numbers.
22:38
I hope you know that, but there are some people who are gonna be like, "Oh, you gotta go 12 over five. It always happens." Uh, there's n- there's no statistical value specifically to that over something else.
22:47
We'll come back, NBA with Carl Sack next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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23:20
Skill Alexander, we get tweets @bettingthebook, always appreciate the, uh, feedback from everybody. Uh, New Jersey, New York, updating his, uh, spreadsheet with a formula. I love that he does this.
23:29
He's got a whole spreadsheet with all the categories, all the teams. Um, so if you're following him on Twitter, he could also have told you that Iowa State and Tennessee added and are now formula compliant, as he says.
23:39
DGen Southern Gen, congratulations to DGen Southern Gen. He says, "I backed the right horse, Gil.
23:44
You know how rare it is to catch a men's, uh, to catch, to cash," pardon me, "a men's long shot in 1,000s in Grand Slams, so I'll cherish this one for a while.
23:52
Only regret was not having the country club and theme ready to fire up when the match ended yesterday." He hit Jack Draper 33 to one- Whew... to win the men's side of Indian Wells.
24:01
Congratulations to you, and I'm glad you had a better tournament than I did, 'cause mine was a, uh, keisterization- [laughs]... is what it was. A keisterization. [chuckles] It was. W- absolutely was. Just out of...
24:11
And I don't know if it was the new service. I don't know what it was. Maybe I should've just applied clay numbers, but it was awful. Just out of the blue, too. LasVegas514, "Yo, forget about a bracket.
24:20
Survivor is the way. Let's go." Oh, I'm with you, man You play NCAA survivor? Um, no. I have before. I don't do it regularly, but- Dr-... I, [laughs] I could be talked into it, Gil... Dr- Drew and I are, are in one.
24:34
I think I got Will into it also, and Felika. It's, it is, again, the reason that, the reason that NCAA survivor is the best betting vehicle of anything ever.
24:45
I used to say this about the old off the grid stock market thing where I was betting adjusted season win totals, now adjusted season win totals are a whole thing.
24:52
This is still the best thing going because unlike a bracket and unlike NFL survivor, those things are two-dimensional.
25:00
NCAA survivor is three-dimensional, meaning that not only are you trying to have teams survive, but you must plan from the back end to still have them available as the field shrinks. So you can lose two ways.
25:13
You can lose by getting knocked out, but you can also lose by surviving and just running out of teams if you don't plan the brackets properly. You do it for a round or a weekend?
25:25
Oh, no, you d- what do you mean you do it for a round or a weekend? For how many teams you pick. Oh, no, daily. Daily, okay. Daily. Daily. Early, yeah, daily. Prime time. Yo. Word.
25:33
[laughs] Everybody's starting their, everybody- [laughs] Las Vegas and prime time start with yo. It's my favorite thing.
25:40
Uh, I was feeling pretty, pretty good about my 121 to ticket on Izzo's crew to simply make the final four, found a very bad number in a faraway locale.
25:46
Then Joe Pita finds this stat and my bubble is burst before opening tip of madness. I need angry, angry country club and K. Michael Bidlin rant. Um, I'm, by the way, I'm totally Ron Burgundy-ing through this.
25:58
Uh, Rip Rick Sabski, the problem with the top 25 discussion is that c- yeah, this is a great point. Rick, I was gonna make this point as well.
26:05
He says that college basketball's completely changed, yes, with NIL and transfers. Half the top 10, Kansas, UConn, Gonzaga, Baylor, UNC aren't ranked. Absolutely.
26:14
By the way, that's also, that's also, that's the biggest thing with that top 25 AP thing.
26:20
They can be more wrong now than they ever were before because with the ch- with the portal, you have less of an idea what you're gonna get. So I'm with you. I'm with you on that. Um- Yeah, makes sense...
26:32
but I think that makes more sense for the teams that were on the inside out than it does for the outside in, if that makes sense, but it's a good point nonetheless.
26:39
Um, we'll get to more, well, more tweets, but we gotta get, get, get to, uh, Carl. Um, Carl Sack I'm referring to specifically, once again.
26:47
Oh, oh, oh, and before Carl, did you have Rory McIlroy to win the, uh, the Players Championship? No, I did not. I had Rory McIlroy to win the playoff today though, so that was nice. Oh, there you go.
26:54
Did, did help get some money back for, uh- What did you lay, what did you lay on that? Minus 150. Wow. Why- Thank G- I was out. Thank God Matt Brown texted me yesterday.
27:01
He's like, "You looking at these odds for the playoff?" What- I'm like, "Minus 150?" Why was- It was real short... why would you g- do you think it was real short?
27:08
Why would you feel so confident in laying that big of a price on just a three-hole aggregate?
27:11
Well, partially 'cause it's a three-hole aggregate, not just one hole, so it ta- it takes a little bit of the variance out of it. Little bit. You get the par, par five that Rory's gonna have an advantage on.
27:20
A little bit, but not much with that, with that pond there, right, with that island green. Sure, yeah. That's like the king of variance, right? Yeah. But then Spohn 10 hit into that one. [laughs] Then Spohn got lucky.
27:27
No, what, what I'm saying is it worked out for you. Yes, it did. It did. But I'm, but I'm surprised you guys were that confident.
27:32
I think with a guy that's been there that many times like Rory has in these big time moments compared to JJ Spahn, that has a lot to do with it.
27:39
Rory McIlroy, the, uh, champion of second time, right, for the fifth major, the Players Championship. Two wins this year, man.
27:45
I, I've been, it, hats off to Rory 'cause I was really high on him last week, Gil, did, and then he didn't do anything for me last week. This week he gets it done. I stayed away. Carl Sack joins us now to talk NBA.
27:54
You can follow him on Twitter @killercappers, uh, killercappers.com, killersports.com. He joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Carl? Good morning, Gil. How you doing, man?
28:04
Let, let me just ask you the first question. You are so in your NBA, you know, blinders bubble, are you even aware, like I know you're aware that March Madness is happening, but do you care at all?
28:14
Do you even look at a bracket? Um, sometimes.
28:19
Sometimes if, uh, you know, a friend is like, "Hey, you wanna get involved," and I've got some free time, um, this, this survivor that you're talking about sounds interesting.
28:28
I, I'd be interested to maybe get involved with that. Okay. All right. Everybody, everybody lining up now [laughs] for, for survivor. You know what the rules are on these survivor things?
28:36
Like you have to vouch for everybody you refer, and if they don't pay, it's on you. So don't, don't- All right, Gil... don't be a deadbeat, Carl. I'm, I'm, I, I'm gonna stiff you. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Definitely.
28:46
That's right. Gil, vouch for both of us and we're definitely gonna pay you, bro. [laughs] Definitely. [laughs] Um, okay. J- Gil, you have- Is keysterization a word? [laughs] Yeah. Oh, it is now. Keysterization. Awesome.
28:57
I like it. Toe, that tournament totally keysterized me. That's a Todd Wishnet word. All right, um, I just wanna say this about the Cavaliers and the Thunder. Uh, obviously everybody loves the Thunder. They're 56 and 12.
29:09
The Cavaliers who are 56 and 11, we've talked about before, like if there is value, it just feels like this team is, is, is that.
29:16
No, uh, uh, the, the general market is not taking them as seriously perhaps as they should be. And I just wanna say this from a historical perspective.
29:23
With the 56 and 11 Cavs and the 56 12 Thunder, the greatest team ever record-wise in NBA history were the Bulls, right? Uh, 73 and 9 Bulls. Excuse me, the 73 and 9 Warriors followed by the se- Right, yeah.
29:35
Yeah, followed by the 72 and 10 Bulls. The Warriors did not get to the promised land, right? They lost a three to one lead against the Cavaliers, LeBron and the Cavs, um, back in 2016.
29:46
But we're, with the Cavs and the, and the, and the, um, Thunder, literally if they like, if they went on like a 10 to one run the rest of the way, they end up being like the third or fourth greatest teams record-wise in the history of the National Basketball Association.
30:04
Not saying they're gonna do that, right, but, but there's a world where that happens. Do you consider these teams in any way as good as those, the great Warriors and Bulls teams of, of yesteryear?
30:17
Oof, that's a great question. Yeah, they could totally end up being 69, 70, 70 win teams. Um, gosh I,
30:27
neither of them have the playoff experience, uh, to, for me to say, "Oh, Bulls, Warriors are, you know, up there with those great teams."
30:35
Certainly in terms of regular season performance, they're, they're pretty darn close. But, um, I, I would hesitate to put them quite in that category, uh, yet.
30:45
I would too, but they, but it needs to be brought up, I think. It just, that's how good they could possibly be when all is said and done. Totally, yeah.
30:51
Their season-long plus-minus for Oklahoma City right now is bordering on, uh, record-setting. Yes. Yeah. Absolutely. Yeah, gre- greatest point differential in NBA history right now.
31:00
What was your, uh, injury, uh, your case study that you wanted to ask Carl about? Oh, just making a bet last night. So Carl, I almost never do this. I just wanted to, wanted to get your, uh, insight on this.
31:10
So I made a bet last night where I thought the number would kinda move my way by this morning. It did. Um, and I, what I b- what I bet was the Nuggets at plus five and a half. They're playing Golden State la- uh, today.
31:22
Um, thought that would move, that number would get a little shorter. It's sitting about four and a half now, but there are a lot of questionable tags on the board. I made a light bet there.
31:30
I rarely do it in games with this many guys listed questionable.
31:33
Just wanted to get your insight on how often you're doing that, if you're betting any openers or any, uh, anything with any in- major injury questions like that. I do a lot of that.
31:42
Do you, did, did you make that bet when the, um, after the injury report had come out? Yeah. Okay. Yeah. Um, I mean, you have to be able to assess, um, the likelihood of...
31:55
I think there's a lot of value to be found out there i- in being able to interpret and see through some of these injury reports.
32:01
You know, we've seen Joker listed questionable a number of times in the last week and a half, and he's played every time. So something like that, I think, I don't think he's truly 50/50 questionable.
32:12
Um, conversely, we look at, like, the Lakers game tonight.
32:15
We don't have an injury report, but if you can anticipate that, hey, this is a four and five for the Lakers, and they're probably gonna sit Luka, or they're probably gonna sit, uh, Finney-Smith or somebody, um, yeah, I think if, if you can get ahead of these things and anticipate stuff, I definitely think there's value.
32:31
You bet anything yet today? Um, I bet the Spurs, actually, kind of anticipating some of these, uh, Lakers to be out. Um, and I think I'm just a little bit, uh...
32:42
I feel differently than the market does as far as Fox's value now with him out for the Spurs. What's the difference? What do you feel about it?
32:50
He, you know, they, when he was on Sacramento, they were better when he was off the court, and now even with San Antonio, they've been better when he's off the court.
32:59
And I just think that their depth with Champagnie and Cassell, um, I think, I don't think he's gonna make much of a difference, honestly. Anything else besides the Spurs that you're looking at or at least anticipating?
33:11
Um, I would say the, maybe the Knicks-Heat under.
33:15
Um, it's come down since the opener, but with Brunson out, um, and, and with how slow Miami's been playing lately, um, I think that that ends up going below the 210 and a half that we've got right now. Okay.
33:30
Carl, appreciate it. Good luck with the bets. Thanks. Thank you so much. Thank you. Thanks for having me on. Carl Sack, everybody, looking to get in on Survivor as well. Yeah. Cut to great note.
33:38
Yeah, I'll tell you on the other side. Oh, okay. Tip Murray on the other side, talking more college hoops, what he's bet so far in round one next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:55
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34:19
We got tweets at Beating The Book always appreciated.
34:21
Jack in a Prius 2.0, "Had George Mason plus eight and a half pre-flop, then late second half I live bet VCU minus four and a half and managed to middle with that crazy ending with VCU getting those two free throws.
34:33
Chowda and Mills," that's what Massachusetts does. What a, what a great finish that was. Um, VCU, another one of those teams, right, where it's like, oh, they could go far,
34:43
but then there's a sort of ceiling where you can't, where you can't really... You're trying to, can I advance them past a certain...
34:50
This is the thing with the bracket also just generally speaking, and I was talking about how this might be the year to me where it is the Jay Williams, you know, uh, Jay Billas, you know, oh, it's one, two, one, two, one, two, one, two in the, in the Elite Eight, and it's all ones in the f- in the Final Four.
35:04
The way that the brackets came down from the selection committee, VCU has to play BYU in the first round. They could win three games or they could get knocked out in the first round.
35:12
It's like those are two teams people really liked. Um, and then some of the ones like Auburn, you know, you look at their section, people are like, "Okay, well, Auburn's not playing very well."
35:21
Right, but then they had a, uh, is, is Iowa State in their bracket where Keyshawn Gilbert is out?
35:26
So they get that, that sort of break, and then, you know, you have some match-ups where Yale could win and, and, and, uh, UCSD could take out Michigan.
35:38
So the way that the bracket also played out, injuries and just the s- the way the selections were, it sort of feeds into some of the top seeds in a way that it might not have otherwise.
35:48
Also with Alabama, you know, what's the story with Grant Nelson and his knee? That could play in. Yeah, it feels like some big injury questions.
35:55
Uh, by the way, VCU in the Kelly Bidland database, I'm gonna go with, uh, has made the NCAA tournament 14 out of the last 17 years. There you go. That's what it feels like.
36:03
Coach Brian, "Please post the KenPom reference about the polls again." Is he talking about the formula? Uh, Torch D, "I'm just gonna say it.
36:11
Waiting at night for Greg Peterson's picks this season has been the closest thing to Christmas I've experienced as an adult. Watched him with Matt Humans last night and that show was a banger.
36:19
Then I heard The Gillionaire on Cashing Out with Joe Cirillo afterwards."
36:22
Hey, listen, I, you, also what happened was while it was coming out, we had Tim Murray on air with JVT, and they did a spectacular, bang-up job, and Tim Murray joins us right now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line.
36:35
Appreciate your time, Tim, at T- what is it, @, uh, now I'm getting confused with Wes Reynolds. It's @1TimMurray, correct? Sure. 1TimMurray, whereas Wes Reynolds is @WesReynolds1. These guys. Great work, great work.
36:47
They're always spinning it on us. [laughs] How you doing, Tim? It's Christmas morning. How you doing, man? Oh, it is, yeah, Selection Sunday, one of my favorite days of the year. And, you know, we got the outrage.
36:56
I was, uh, talking briefly to Kelly off air. It was fascinating to watch FanDuel and the odds shift for the bracket and who would be in, who would be out.
37:05
You know what was interesting, I wish I had a little bit more insight, uh, with some friends over at CBS.
37:11
I was listening to Gary Parrish and Matt Norlander discuss, uh, their, the, you know, the, the selection process over at CBS, and they were told ahead of time that Bubba Cunningham would be accompanied by another member of the selection committee because of the UNC situation.
37:30
And that should've been the alarm bell that UNC was going to be in the field, because Bubba Cunningham is the AD of UNC, and, uh, ultimately cannot be in the room when UNC is discussed.
37:41
But yeah, there were some juicy odds out there. I believe you could have got, uh, Indiana at around 10 to 1 to miss the field, uh, when the bracket was about to be announced. Ooh.
37:52
So it was kind of fun to just keep an eye on, on the fluctuation of the market. But, uh, all of the, uh, the complaining to the side now, and we've got to focus on 68 teams. Yeah. What do you mean by accompanied?
38:03
Bubba Cunningham was accompanied. What do you mean by that?
38:05
Yeah, so there was ano- so when you're the chair of the, the selection committee, you go on and CBS, CBS Sports Network, et cetera- Oh, accompanied on air, you mean. I see...
38:14
they usually don't, you're, you're by yourself. Gotcha. But because North Carolina got in- Yeah...
38:18
and they knew there would be questions about that, they had to add someone to that, and they knew that for the last, like, 24 hours. So that was the alarm bell- Oh, man...
38:28
at least to them, like, "Hmm, maybe UNC is gonna get in after all." His, his deputy was there with him, by the way. [laughs] Yeah. I was gonna say, what were you thinking, like there was a polite es- No, no...
38:35
police escort, like detaining him or something? No. When you said accompanied, I was like, you know, 'cause he's r- uh, Tim is right.
38:39
Bubba Cunningham is the, uh, is the committee chairperson, but also the AD at North Carolina. When they're talking about your team, you have to be outside of the room. You recuse, you recuse yourself.
38:48
But I thought what Tim meant was- Right, so he can't answer questions... he was escorted [laughs] out the room. Right. [laughs] That's what I thought. I was like, "Come here, Bubba." [laughs] "I know you wanna stay."
38:56
Um, yeah, that was a, uh, that was an interesting interview because Seth Davis did the whole, "I know these questions are coming, so it's not me who's asking them." Right. "But they're gonna be asked by others."
39:07
It's like, Seth, just ask the question about why- Yeah... you know, does it look like conflict. All right. Round one, maybe even the play-in games, right? Maybe even the first four- Yeah...
39:16
you have some thoughts on, speaking of North Carolina. 'Cause now that they're in, right? Yeah. None of that stuff matters. L- you know, mainstream media's gonna have that, uh, discussion.
39:24
Sports talk radio's gonna, gonna bust on that. But, uh, they're in. North Carolina is, at least in the first four. Do you have a play on that game? I don't.
39:32
Uh, but in the first four, I'll go to, uh, I'll go to Wednesday night. Um, I, I imagine not many people, uh, were, uh, locked in on the MAAC Tournament in Atlantic City, but Mount St.
39:42
Mary's was the sixth seed in this conference, and, uh, they've lost their two best players, uh, due to injury.
39:49
So they have really just uglied games up, and every game in the MAAC Tournament, uh, for the Mount was a dead under game.
39:57
And you saw the market move about five or six points on every single one of their games, and it still went under every number. And guess what, guys? We're seeing market movement again in the Mount St.
40:06
Mary's American game under. Uh, I took 131 and a half under last night. Uh, it's at 129 and a half.
40:13
I just, I think the way that, uh, this team has gotten here, which is to really ugly things up, kind of bleed the b- bleed the clock, uh, I would be, uh, assuming that we're gonna hit another under, uh, in this spot.
40:25
So of the first four, that's the one that I have, uh, taken a little bit of a swing on, is a under in, uh, Mount St. Mary's and American. That's the, uh, the DMV Showdown, Bill.
40:35
I was gonna say, everybody for the DMV got a good chuckle out of that matchup- Yeah... for sure. Yeah. Um, okay, to round one then. Yes, sir.
40:43
What, what were the lines where you first saw them and you're like, "Ooh, what is that?" Well, I, I think there's a couple.
40:49
Um, I, and I, [sighs] you know, you always get worried about the, the team that you know everybody's going to be telling you about at the water cooler on Monday, and that is gonna be UC San Diego.
41:00
I saw them in person on, on Thursday, or excuse me, on Saturday night here in town. Uh, they're as good as, you know, advertised.
41:07
This is a team that, uh, doesn't have a ton of size, but I think for Michigan, when you look at them, you know, you win the Big Ten Tournament, hey, congratulations, you get a five seed despite- That was brutal...
41:17
picking up two, two extra Quad 1 wins over the weekend, and now you've gotta face the best 12 seed in the field, a team that very well could have made it as an at-large bid.
41:28
Um, I do get concerned a little bit, uh, for UC San Diego from a size standpoint.
41:33
Uh, this is a team that, you know, is about 6'8" at its peak, and, you know, for Michigan, they've got Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolfe down low. Danny Wolfe not really a banger, so to speak.
41:43
He's more of a stretch, even though he's seven foot tall. But I looked at that line, I'm like, "Ooh, buddy, people are gonna be racing to take UC San Diego." So that was a one that, uh, was interesting.
41:53
And then I, I think you gotta go to the 12-5, uh, in the west region, guys. Colorado State is the favorite over Memphis here. Mm-hmm.
42:02
And Colorado State, I just tweeted this out, Colorado State, if you look at since February 15th, so over the last month, they're the eighth-best team in the country heading into, uh, into this per Bart Torvik.
42:15
This is a Colorado State team that me and JVT took a future on to win the Mountain West Tournament, and Niko Medved's squad was, uh, was rolling. Now, you do wonder a little bit about Niko Medved.
42:26
So from everything that has been reported, it seems like he has got his bags packed to go to Minnesota.
42:33
So you do always wonder about, you know, the, the, the rumors that are out there and the mindset of Colorado State's squad after, uh, taking care of business.
42:40
But, uh, obviously you guys were just talking about injuries, you know, Keyshawn Gilbert being the big news, uh, that he's out for Iowa State. Tyrese Hunter, the starting point guard for Memphis- Yeah...
42:49
did play in the AAC Championship game. Now, they still took care of business.
42:53
They won and covered against UAB, but that's a, that's a fascinating, uh, spot there, where Colorado State, the 12, is actually the favorite over Memphis. Yeah.
43:02
A 10-game win streak for the Rams after they, uh, started, uh, 15 and 9. And you're right about Tyrese Hunter. Yep. Fastest pace in the nation for Memphis, by the way, as they're two-point dogs.
43:13
In a bit of a coaching mismatch, would you say, Medved over, uh, over Penny as well in this one? Yeah, I would say, I mean, I'll, I'll give Memphis credit for this, though.
43:20
When you look at what they did early on in the year, opened the season with a win over Missouri, went out to Maui, beat UConn and Michigan State, beat Ole Miss, uh, beat Clemson on their home floor.
43:30
They've been able to elevate their game, especially in the non-con early part of the season.
43:35
And just to clarify, when you were talking about UCSD and Michigan, and you'll tell me if I'm, if I got what you were, were dishing out here, you're saying it, it feels like it's almost too popular of an opinion- It does...
43:45
on, on UCSD? It does. Yeah. It does a little bit, yeah. Yeah.
43:48
Uh, I think, you know, and, and that's where, like, you know, you mentioned VCU, and I know we gotta hit a break, but, like, VCU, I'm intrigued by this team quite a bit.
43:55
You know, BYU, as hot as any team in the country, but this is gonna be a challenging matchup. Uh, but I'll, I'll say this, uh, to, to get out of here. Look at these mid-majors, the 12 through 14s.
44:05
A lot of one seeds in their conference tournaments. I think this is a very strong mid-major field that could do some damage in the early couple of rounds. Who'd you end up with in your Final Four?
44:15
Did you fill out a bracket? Uh, I'm, I'm working on it now, but I think ultimately I'm gonna have the Coogs of Houston making a, a pretty deep run as one of the one seeds. But I'll, I'll have it finished later today.
44:26
Okay. Tim Murray. Thank you, Tim, appreciate it. Thank you. That was 1TimMurray. Great job, him and JVT yesterday when the brackets were coming out. Wes Reynolds next
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