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Mar 17, 2025
A Numbers Game | March 17, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | March 17, 2025 | Hour 2
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44:36
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. Sharp week. Look it, here you see the shark bites. Like it.
0:20
Very nice. [growls] It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly- That was like a lion- It's Kelly Bidlin-... but a shark... it's like live look in on a shark is what that was. [laughs] Kelly.
0:28
Um, by the way, baseball season starts tonight. You familiar with that? Major league baseball. Yeah, in the, in the wee hours of the morning, right? In the wee hours, a little Dodgers and Cubbies.
0:36
Um, nobody has a dime line in baseball here in Vegas. Really? It's gone. They're all gone. We're legislating baseball betting out of this place.
0:45
Boy, I tell you, when we get sports betting legalized in this, in this state, like real sports betting, that's gonna be something. Very upsetting. Yeah, you're right. Wow. Yeah. Yeah, I don't like that development.
0:56
Um, we got tweets at Beating The Book. ABrownDownInJungleLand, he said, "Don't worry, you'll be happy to know with all the teams having to go play, quote, 'at altitude,' unquote- [laughs] Yes...
1:06
once again this year a number of tourney games will be taking place on flying hardwoods." JasonH11, "Yo." That's it. I just felt jealous everyone else was getting in a yo and I wasn't.
1:15
JasonIceColdGambler, "Will vouch for me. I want in on Survivor." Ke- uh, he said, "Gil will vouch for me. I want in on Survivor." What is he saying? "I'm good for it. Trust me, I'm not a degenerate, LOL."
1:25
Yeah, that always makes you feel better when you end the sentence that way. Yeah. Yeah. Don't worry, Gil. Yeah. Uh, ShooterMcGamblin, "Yo, using the KenPom angle to fade St.
1:33
Johns and using the wouldn't it be awesome angle, I'm penciling in Mizzou versus Kansas Sweet 16." Oh, no. Let's go. All right.
1:40
You know, y- you know, Primetime Cowboy- Primetime Cowboys1, I forget the exact handle, but sorry, that's, that's- Cowboys_Cubs1. Yeah. Thank you. Thank you. Yeah, mm-hmm.
1:49
Um, he listened to me the one time I was like, "Please start including yo in every tweet." Yeah. I don't know why did today it finally got picked up on. I know. Everybody's doing it today. Great job.
1:57
[laughs] Great work out there. Wes Reynolds is kind enough to join us. He is part of the glue that holds this entire operation together here at VSiN.
2:04
He, uh, WesReynolds1, that's the number one, is where you can find him on Twitter. And he joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
2:11
Wes, of course, also part of the, uh, Long Shots team, which, uh, Kelly Bidlin and Matt Bidlin. How you doing? Uh, Matt Bidlin. Yeah. [laughs] Kelly Bidlin and, and Matt Brown. I didn't know you guys were brothers.
2:21
How you doing, Wes? Good morning. I'm well, guys. How are you? Doing very well. Let me start real quick with golf. Uh, Rory wins in the three-hole aggregate.
2:29
He destroys JJ Spaun in the three-hole aggregate 'cause, uh, JJ got wet on 17. Uh, any takeaways generally from the tournament for you heading, heading forward?
2:39
Yeah, look, uh, the, The Players Championship, uh, and, and we talked about it at length on Long Shots last week, you don't really have a lot of consistent form in this event.
2:49
You could win this event and then miss, like, four cuts in a row the next four years.
2:54
So, you know, we've, we talked a lot about how The Masters is kind of, like, the most predictive of the golf events, guys that continuously play well, play well. Players, not so much.
3:05
But, you know, uh, one takeaway I guess for Rory is if he's gonna hit his irons like this, this is gonna be the year of the Rory, and that's been kind of the drawback, uh, with Rory in recently years.
3:15
We know how great he is off the tee.
3:17
He's probably the best pure driver of the golf ball, not that he's the longest hitter, even though he's one of the longest, but he's the best driver, I think, consistently of the golf ball in the game.
3:27
But the irons can be a little, a little bit out of whack. But third this week in the field on strokes gained approach, uh, I believe he gained over eight strokes on approach for this event.
3:37
So if he's gonna do that, then he's gonna have a big year like Scottie had last year. Yeah, Wes, we talked a little bit about it on the podcast last week.
3:44
I think the only other note, uh, kind of c- taken away from a Rory win is we, we discussed how since they moved the tournament to March, how it's been, it's been all major winners that are, have wi- uh, that are winning this tournament now.
3:58
Do you, do you take, uh, a- anything away from that with Rory getting it done again this year? Yeah. I think it, think it very well could be, uh, uh, that you're seeing a lot of these, a lot of these shorter shots.
4:09
Scottie obviously the last two years. Rory, I think, what'd he open, around eight to one- Yeah... on market average this week. So in the past you've seen some bobs. You've seen a lot of triple digit guys win this thing.
4:21
But, uh, yeah, Rory just in, in very good form and obviously peaking for The Masters, and that's gonna be the running storyline over the next month until we get to Augusta.
4:31
Rory's still trying to complete that career grand slam, which he's s- still been trying to do, I believe, since 2014. So it's been now over 10 years- Mm-hmm...
4:39
he's been trying to win The Masters, 'cause he had already won the US Open, the Open Championship, and the PGA. So is this finally the year? I think that's gonna be the big story heading into, uh, Augusta week.
4:49
All right. To college basketball. You're an Indiana guy. Uh, we spoke about this a little off air. I expected you to be, uh, upset about Indiana.
4:55
You're said, you said you're less so upset about Indiana being left out than you are North Carolina being put in. Yeah. Look, I, I, I think North Carolina does not belong at all in, in this tournament.
5:09
They were one and 12 in Quad 1 games, and the committee kind of tends to talk out of both sides of their mouth, which they really do every year. It doesn't matter who's the chairman.
5:17
It just so happens that the North Carolina athletic director was the, uh, selection committee chairman this year. So I'm not accusing of any impropriety. I would, I would never do that. No.
5:27
But, but, you know, 'cause, 'cause he, he left the room, right, when North Carolina got discussed. [laughs] But, uh, with Indiana, they had plenty of opportunities.
5:37
Uh, if, if they win probably one more of those games- Uh, in February. They're probably in the tournament. They have a lame duck coach.
5:45
It's easy to le- it's easy to leave this team out be- because Mike Woodson, of course, is not gonna be back. Indiana's, uh, looking and, uh, develop- uh, really enveloped in their coaching search right now.
5:56
But I thought Indiana had a better profile than North Carolina, because over the last three weeks, Indiana had beaten Michigan State, on the road by the way, the Big Ten regular season champion, and Purdue, who the selection committee, by the seeding process, is telling us those are two of the top 16 teams in America.
6:12
Meanwhile, North Carolina's best win was against UCLA, who's a seven seed. So I, I just, I didn't think North Carolina should be in. I thought West Virginia had the biggest gripe.
6:22
Having all those Quad 1 wins, I think they had six of them, going four and two in Quad 1 games without Tucker DeVries, by the way, the Drake transfer who's the coach's son down there in Morgantown.
6:33
So I would have personally had West Virginia and Indiana in over North Carolina and Xavier, but the selection committee did not agree, so let's play the games.
6:42
Maybe this happens every year, but did you get the impression when the, when the selections, when the, when the brackets were announced, did you have a lot of moments, or at lea- at least a few moments, where you were like, "Oh, man, I would've loved to have advanced VCU deep, but oh, they get BYU.
6:57
Oh, man, I would've l- uh, loved to advance UCSD, but they get Michigan"?
7:01
I felt like that was sort of the biggest theme of the brackets for me where I'm like, oh, this does feel like a lot of teams are gonna get sort of cut out from under...
7:11
Now, now, now a double-digit seed has gotten to the Sweet 16 almost, uh, what, I wanna say almost every year here. I wanna get the exact stat. At least one doul- double-digit seed has reached the Sweet 16 since 2008.
7:25
Couple years ago, it barely survived. We only had one. But we always have some double-digit advancing. Probably will to the Sweet 16.
7:31
But, but when you look at these brackets, did the, did they cut a lot of these teams out from under their, theirselves if they had'a gotten a different sort of path? You know, I think a little bit.
7:41
I, I think, I think that that's certainly accurate.
7:43
Uh, but just I, I think that the seeding, uh, is, is really what I, what I have gripes with, with, with, with a lot of these teams, the, these teams that are dramatically underseeded. Like, you look, you look at Gonzaga.
7:56
Now, I don't have them as a top 10. Like, the metrics guys all love these guys. Ken Pomeroy and Torvik and all these guys have them in, like, the top 10. But you look at a Gonzaga, and they're an eight seed.
8:07
They're a true, I think, five or six seed, even though they are down from their usual standards.
8:13
Uh, but th- th- they didn't do Houston any favors i- in that, in that draw, uh, where Houston gets by the 116, and then you get potentially Gonzaga in the second round, who looks like they're underseeded.
8:25
Then you potentially could get a Clemson, who's probably the best of, uh, best of the five seeds, and then Tennessee down at the bottom. So, you know, some of these teams got the easier draw.
8:34
I think Duke kind of got the benefit of the, the, of the doubt, and, and they've got a relatively easy draw, I think, for a one seed, whereas Houston got a tough one. But yeah, it's tough, dude.
8:44
You're, you're kind of trying to find that needle in the haystack. It's like, what is that on The Price is Right, Gil? The Punch Out game? Mm-hmm.
8:49
Where you only get, like, a couple punches, and you're trying to get the grand prize. That's what you're trying to figure out, which double-digit seed is gonna advance into the Sweet 16.
8:58
Uh, so, you know, I don't know how... I don't think it's gonna be overwhelmingly chalk heavy, but I don't think that we're necessarily getting chaos in this bracket this year either.
9:08
By the way, back to Gonzaga, and let's get to some of these numbers. Georgia catching six. Does that seem like a lot to you? It does. Uh, uh, Geo- Georgia's a good team.
9:16
They got a kid, Asa Newell, that's probably, he played at, uh, Montverde Academy, uh, with Derek Queen at Maryland, with Leila McNeely, who's a star at UConn.
9:25
How the hell did that team ever lose in high school basketball? Seriously. Oh, by the way, they didn't, because they were [laughs] number one in the country. Uh, uh, Asa Newell probably a first-round draft pick.
9:33
Georgia's got some athletes. Uh, uh, uh, and, uh, the former Florida Gator coach that is, uh, that is now the Georgia coach, they got some athletes.
9:41
So yeah, with Gonzaga, I'm like, I'm not just gonna totally push them through.
9:46
I may advance them in my bracket, but I think everybody kind of sees that as like a foregone conclusion that we're getting Gonzaga and Houston. Uh, maybe not so fast. I might like the Bulldogs here.
9:56
But with the SEC, they're the best team, uh, they're, they were the best conference all year. Of course, 14 teams get in the field of 68.
10:04
So you gotta be careful with, like, overvaluing or undervaluing conferences, because how many years have we crapped on the ACC where they've been horrible in the regular season the last few years, and then they do well in the tournament, and then all the ACC guys come out and beat their chests like, "See?
10:19
See? We were really good," when they were really terrible. And then, and they were historically terrible this year, uh, uh, getting, uh, getting the four teams in.
10:27
And another thing about seeding, how does Louisville get an eight seed when they were like top 15 in the country? I know. And, and yet North Carolina gets in the tournament.
10:36
I'm like, if Louisville's an eight seed, then North Carolina is, like, out of the tournament altogether, but that, but that's what happens.
10:43
But yeah, the ACC historically low, and I know you grew up in that part of the country, Gil. This is not your old ACC that you grew up when you were back in the district, sir. No, no. Not, not even close.
10:54
What, what is this, the, uh, the fewest ACC teams since, what year is this now? Um, I wanna say it's since 2000, it's 2016, the fewest ACC teams? I'll have to look on that. Maybe I'm- Doesn't go further back than that?
11:07
Or, or 2013, the few. There was one year where it was really bad- Okay... the ACC, but that, that's the exception. By the way, again, uh, what Wes was alluding to, uh, the SEC of course, a record 14 teams in the field.
11:19
I think that's a record by a, by a few. Uh, 14 SEC teams. In fact, so many that you have three potential SEC versus SEC match-ups in round two, in the round of 32. [laughs] That's crazy.
11:32
So, 'cause you can't, you can't spread it out enough, right? Yeah. Um, more with Wes Reynolds.
11:36
We'll get his thoughts on what, what was the first line that came up, uh, yesterday, first, uh, betting line where he was like, "Oh, that is not correct. Let me bet into that."
11:45
That and more, his top three, let's say, on those. Wes Reynolds right here on The Numbers Game at VS, the eSports betting network.
11:58
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12:08
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12:17
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12:35
Download Juice Reel today. We got tweets @BeatOfTheBook. This is, uh, let's see, Kevin Ryan.
12:43
Um, "Gil, I have to ask, is Hoops Peterson reading from crib notes or a prompter, or does he know all these teams and players from memory? Either way, it's amazing." It's all from memory. It's all in his dome.
12:54
He is a college basketball encyclopedia, this kid. I used to-- when he used to come on a numbers game, I would just go, "Abilene Christian, go." Or, like, pick a random team. It's insane. Yeah, it's wild.
13:03
And then he would, like, just vomit out information. And by the way, I would have no idea if he was telling the truth or not. Oh, he could be lying to me every time. [laughs] Yeah, yeah. No, there are no notes involved.
13:12
I- No... it is one of the most impressive things. It's amazing.
13:14
I, when I first started working at VSiN, it was, like, I'd sit back, I'd sit back there listening to the show and I'm like, "Did he just rattle through 13 deep on Stephen F. Austin?"
13:24
Like, they, he just went through 13 guys on their roster. Like, nobody knows this in November.
13:28
Last Name Nash, "Yo, the part I can, the part I can ignore about UNC," or can't ignore, I think he means, "the chairman earns an additional $100,000 in a bonus anytime UNC makes the tourney.
13:40
There's no way that didn't come across Cunningham's mind when making a decision on his team." Again, he was out of the room.
13:44
[laughs] Rich PSM, "The Sweet 16 requirement in the formula has already created 20% variance in the last 10 years. The other criteria haven't. Good chance at 30%. Great coaches win faster than average.
13:58
Pat Riley, Belichick, Leland, think you really gotta rethink keeping in the Sweet 16 requirement in the formula." All right, well, you know, one more, one more exception, maybe we, maybe we'll have to, uh, adjust on it.
14:09
By the way, this is a source of, uh, pride for some of us. Can we show this? Speaking of coaches, three number one seeds. Three out of four. This is from Darren Heitner.
14:20
He's a, uh, he's a s- he's a teacher over there, I think he teaches NIL at the University of Miami, at The U. He says, "History in the making." I, believe me, I've been thinking about this the whole time.
14:29
"John Shire, Duke, Bruce Pearl, Auburn, Todd Golden, Florida, a trio of Jewish head coaches to lead number one seeds in the same NCAA tournament. A mazel-filled mishpocha affair. #MarchMeshugana." Good for you, Darren.
14:43
Point it out. Just wanna point out that Danny Wolf would also be a leaflet, uh, candidate if things go well for Michigan. Just point that out as well. Um, so that's a source of pride. Name the last- That's great...
14:55
Jewish head coach to win March Madness, Kelly. Go. No idea. 1989, Steve Fisher, Michigan, back-to-back with Larry Brown in '88, Danny Manning and the Miracles. Yeah. Wow, okay. Interesting information. And now you know.
15:09
For, for some of us, that's a big source of pride. Uh, Wes Reynolds joins us now. I'm sure he knew the answer to the Steve Fisher, uh, Larry Brown kenella, courtesy of the Progressive Gasline. How you doing, Wes?
15:19
What's up? Gil, you are, you are kvelling, uh- [laughs]... uh, with, with, uh, you are bursting with pride or excitement, especially for these, uh, these, uh, three Jewish head coaches here.
15:28
So, uh, uh, yeah, look, three [laughs] number one seeds, uh, how about that? With, uh, with Shire, Pearl, and, uh, Golden. So kvelling with pride here on St. Patrick's Day, are you? That's right. I-- we're on St.
15:40
Patrick's. I was, I just wanted to read it for the mishpocha and the meshugana. [laughs] That's all I was doing for there.
15:44
All right, so what was the line that you saw when they first came out yesterday as, as the, uh, the betting lines emerged? What were the one, two, or three of them where you're like, "Whoa, that is, that is off"?
15:54
Well, there were a couple of them that, that kinda jump out to you, and, and this has probably been a popular answer over the last 12 hours since the bracket has been out. But, uh, UC San Diego and Michigan, I...
16:06
There was a three and a half at one point. It's now pretty much two and a half. But you're looking at a, at a 12 against a five. You're like, "Wow, Michigan, they are the Big Ten tournament champion."
16:16
They just beat three top 16 teams at the bare minimum, and they were underdogs in all three games, by the way. They beat Purdue on Friday night. They beat Maryland on Saturday.
16:25
Trey Donaldson goes coast to coast for the layup and the win. And then they beat Wisconsin on Sunday. So they go through that grind of the Big Ten tournament, and now you gotta go play on, on Thursday, uh, out in Denver.
16:38
'Cause that Big Ten tournament, you know, physical games, and you saw it in the t- in the championship yesterday with Michigan and Wisconsin. That game was a grinder in the low 50s, low-scoring game.
16:47
I think it was 23 to 21 at halftime for two pretty good offenses. So you could tell that fatigue wears in, and now you gotta go play on Thursday against UC San Diego.
16:58
I actually, in terms of raw power ratings, made it, like, Michigan minus a half point. So I agree with the move, and I know it's becoming that popular upset, and you never wanna totally be on- Mm-hmm...
17:09
the popular upsets. But, but UC San Diego, very good at turning teams over. I think they're the second-best in the country at turning teams over.
17:18
Michigan turns it over on over 20% of their possessions, so they are way down there i- in, in, uh, in the, in the rankings.
17:25
Uh, Michigan, of course, has the Twin Towers with the aforementioned Danny Wolf and also Vlad Golden, the former FAU center, was on the Final Four team a couple years ago.
17:34
So they're gonna be outsized, as you kinda saw on Saturday out here in Henderson against UC Irvine with the kid Luchin, uh, uh, the seven-footer for Irvine. But I think these UCSD guards, they run good stuff.
17:46
They're very well-coached. Uh, I, I don't think this would be that much of an upset if it happens. I did take a, a little piece of the three and the three and a half overnight.
17:54
Wow, three and a halves were out there as well. I didn't see those. I saw the three. UCSD, by the way, longest winning streak in the country, 15 in a row, going for 16 in a row when they play, uh, Michigan.
18:03
What was another one, Wes, where you were like, "Okay, I get it. They should be dogs, but that big of a dog"? Well, it, it, it was maybe a favorite that I think, uh, comes out bigger than, than what you expect.
18:15
Because we all, of course, in the last segment, and we've all over the last se- you know, half a day here, have been crapping all over North Carolina. And now I'm gonna bet North Carolina.
18:26
[laughs] Because I always do that, Gil. Yeah. I always do that with the one or two teams that's like, "They shouldn't be in this field at all. What the hell are they doing in this field?"
18:35
But with Carolina, one thing I will say, because if you watched on Friday night, they played Duke without, of course, Cooper Flagg, who's gonna be the player of the year and the number one draft pick this summer in the NBA draft, and North Carolina made a furious comeback, and they got it to within one possession, and they have a chance to tie the game, and Jalen Withers gets in the lane a little early and a lane violation, so that's basically how they lose the game in that moment.
19:01
So they're devastated walking off the floor in Charlotte on Friday night, not knowing if they're gonna be in, and looking at all the bracketology and saying, "Oh man, we're gonna be the first team out," you know, "We're, we're not gonna make the field."
19:13
So they get a reprieve. So I think that there's a little energy there for North Carolina, and I, I will have some money line. I think you get, like, 165, 170, 175, in that range.
19:24
I think they beat San Diego State, who kinda, you know, leaked a little oil in, into the tournament, whereas North Carolina I think is, should have that energy on Tuesday night in Dayton.
19:34
I think this is such a great point about North Carolina with, with the, with everybody just laying into their selection, right?
19:40
And obviously the Bubba Cunningham angle, but also just the fact, again, their Quad 1 record is miserable, 1 and 12.
19:45
But your point is a great one, because as far back as I can remember the NCAA tournament in my life, and now we're talking about 48 games, right?
19:53
Like, I'm old enough to remember when it was 48 teams before they expanded to 64, and I remember there was a selection show, this was early '80s, don't hold me to the year, it was '81 or '82, something like that, and Boston College was let in to the field of 84 at the expe- uh, s- field of 48 at the expense of Bradley.
20:12
And I remember the Bradley coach just was going ballistic about it, like, outwardly.
20:17
And then BC, I think they were led by John Bagley, I think it was before Michael Adams, I think it was the Bagley-led BC team, made a run in the NCAA tournament. So exactly what you're talking about.
20:28
By the way, first fours, it should be mentioned, um, yes, two have o- two have gotten to the Final Four, but a first four team has reached the round of 32, meaning that they even win a round of 64 game, 12 of the last 13 years.
20:43
So that's just another historical thing about this. So i- it's almost like all the piling on of the mainstream media might actually, you know, help bettors in this case. We'll see where the line goes. Yeah, 100%.
20:56
Uh, y- you know, and, and I think that there's something to that.
21:00
Those teams that play in the first four, especially the 11 versus the 11, they've had their tournament fate on the line, so they often have an advantage playing, uh, you know, once you get to Thursday to Friday, because they've had to deal with, "Oh man, we could be going home here," and then they get a game under their belt.
21:15
And you kinda see that sometimes in the conference tournaments, you know, with the teams that were rested against the team that had to play the night before, you get a little bit of advantage there.
21:24
So that's why you always see, I think, those 11s, at least one of them, advance, uh, in the main draw. All right, I don't know if you filled out your brackets or, or not, Wes, but, um, who you got winning it all?
21:34
And if you have looked at the brackets, what is your Final Four? Yeah, Final Four for me would be, would be Auburn. Uh, I think Auburn is one of those mission teams. I pointed that out on the X last night @westreynolds1.
21:46
The... You've seen in recent years these teams that get bounced early the year before and then they return a lot of their core, like Auburn does, they tend to be a mission team the next year.
21:56
Uh, we saw that with UConn a couple years ago. We saw it with Virginia a couple years ago. Virginia, sure. We saw it with, we saw it with Purdue. Didn't win it all, but got to the Final Four. Uh, so Auburn for me.
22:06
Uh, everybody's picking Florida, but I like the Texas Tech Red Raiders, another mission team. By the way, both those teams, Texas Tech and Florida, got knocked out in the first round last year.
22:15
So Auburn, Texas Tech, Duke for me, I'm assuming Cooper Flagg is going to be good to go, uh, and, uh, and Tennessee. Uh, I think Rick Barnes', uh, it's been about 20 years since he's been to the Final Four.
22:27
I think he's gonna get there this year. So Auburn, Texas Tech, Duke, and Tennessee, my Final Four. I like it. All right. Formula would like that Texas Tech upset over Florida as well. Wes, always a pleasure, man.
22:38
Thank you so much. You bet, fellas. Thanks for having me. Wes Reynolds. Wes Reynolds1, the number one on the old X machine. He's always saying, uh, something pithy and interesting. We'll come back.
22:49
More college hoops next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Are you ready to take your sports betting to the next level? The sharp plays at sharpplays.com is your secret weapon.
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Sound like I said, like, a sharp a plays at one time. [laughs] A sharp a plays. Sharp a plays. Um, Skill Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin.
23:53
Don't forget, after the, uh, show today, well, not after the show, but a little later today, 3:00 PM Eastern, 12 noon Pacific, it is the Beating The Book March Madness Megapod.
24:03
This is, even more so than the Vegas Lifestyle Podcast, the biggest episode of the year download-wise every year More people tune into the March Madness Megapod than any other episode we do all year long, and it has to do with the fact that we go through every single bracket, uh, from a bracket and from an ATS standpoint.
24:24
It's Will Hill, Todd Wishnev, and I. And, uh, two years ago, famously, Will called Florida Atlantic- Mm-hmm... to get to the Final Four, and Todd called a, um, a final between UConn and, um, and, uh, San Diego State.
24:43
So, and he also called Michigan State to go deep in that tournament as well, and it got so amazing with Todd. By the way, the Will call, FAU, was just- [laughs] Incredible, yeah... unbelievable.
24:51
But Todd did so well, I, I said twice to him on the, on the, on the Megapod, I said to him twice, I go, "Hey, Todd, you know, your bracket is unique enough that you should really enter it into one of these big contests."
25:03
I forgot about this. I said it, I said it a few t- uh, at least twice on that podcast. He's like, "Yeah, yeah, whatever," 'cause he never listens to it. And then all of this stuff started to manifest,
25:13
and then we had a moment, I don't know if it was headed into the Final Four or what it was, but he got the epiphany. He's like, "Oh my God, what would I have finished if I had entered this in the DraftKings bracket?"
25:27
Because Doug Wedge, one of our listeners, ended up finishing, I think, second overall, or did he win it? I don't know. He, he, from listening to the Megapod, from listening to the picks on the Megapod.
25:38
And so we were worried, we were terrified for, like, a, about an hour or two that Todd would've finished first and would've won a million dollars.
25:48
Thank God he only would've finished second, so he only cost himself $35,000. Only. Oh, that's a huge drop. Okay. [laughs] Only, only cost himself $35,000 by not entering.
26:00
The, when I say only, obviously it's bad, but the difference in that is if, you know, he l- $35,000 is one thing, but if he had lost out on a million just simply by not entering, there's no telling what his reaction would've been.
26:12
And by the way, he had driven to Arizona to place bets at DraftKings, so he had every opportunity to do so because you can, you can enter the contest, and he just forgot to do it, so. Oh, brutal, man. Yeah.
26:26
That story's brutal every, every year. So T- uh, late recording time, uh, today f- because of Todd? Yes, 'cause Todd is coming back from LA. [laughs] How was the week of Todd? I missed the end of it.
26:37
Uh, the week of T- oh, what do you mean? I was just, oh, no, we just w- betting college basketball at the South Point primarily. By the way, what a collection of misfits over there. Ah. Well, can I say this?
26:45
Chrissy Andrews and then the South Point taking 10 large on every game. Wow, good for them. 10 grand on every NCAA game. It's so funny.
26:53
Uh, Spanky was retweeting yesterday, oh, this Chrissy and all these guys, uh, Jimmy and Vinnie are putting out $10,000, or taking $10,000 on every NCAA game. And of course there's people on Twitter, right?
27:03
Of course there's people on Twitter who are like, "Really? I don't believe it. Show me a ticket." It's like, [laughs] it's just so ridiculous. It's like, really? You, you don't believe it? We're just making it up?
27:14
I mean, like, I, gosh, it's, I mean, we get annoyed by it when we get those- Oh my gosh... when we get those just about our bets, but, like, a, a shop posting- It's so...
27:21
and taking bets is far more [laughs] it's way easier to check that out whether that's true or not. Let's go through some random NCAA historical stuff.
27:29
And again, I said earlier on the show, you know, when they make sense, when there's something to them, like the whole AP Top 25 thing and 39 teams that were not in the AP Top 25 that end up as one and two seeds never get past their seeding, zero and 39, um, since we've gone to 64 teams.
27:47
When, when you can, when there's some justification to it, right? When you can give a, a reasoning for it, that's one thing.
27:54
Then there's other trends that they throw out, and I'm not sure, like, we'll go through a bunch here and you tell me what you think matters or not.
27:59
Um, one, a, a number one seed has won the title six out of the last seven NCAA tournaments. Let's start there, okay? So again, this gets back to the formula. A lot of upsets early, but in the end it's kinda chalky.
28:10
Uh, at least one one seed has reached the Final Four in 10 of the last 11 tournaments. Remember, the only time that didn't happen was the, the year I was just talking about with Todd- Mm, yep...
28:22
and Will when, uh, San Diego State, a fifth seed, a ninth seed FAU, a fifth seed Miami, and a fourth seed UConn got there. It's wild. I thought San Diego State was even worse than that.
28:32
Highest seed to never win March Madness, and this one doesn't mean exactly anything to me, but it's just interesting to note, a five seed. A five seed has never won. Never won. Okay. All right.
28:42
Well, that 12, that 12 verse five, Gil, they lose every time. [laughs] A two seed hasn't reached the title game since 2016. How about that? That's pretty interesting. Two seed has not reached the title game since 2016.
28:56
I don't know if there's anything to that, it just interests me. Yeah, yeah, it's just interesting. But nine years, n- nine plus tournaments? At large teams have won seven of the last 10 titles. That is interesting.
29:07
So in other words, you didn't win your conference tournament. That's pretty interesting. It's not as interesting as it sounds though because, you know, like, if Flor- like, just take the SEC. Yeah.
29:17
You could see an SEC team that didn't win the tournament get in as a, quote-unquote, "at large team," right? Correct, but I think that's als- Yeah... that's also easier to see this year, right- Yeah...
29:26
than any year ever before. Uh, I mentioned this when Wes was on. First Four teams, so talking about the games tomorrow night and Wednesday night.
29:33
A lotta, a lotta guys, a lot, a lot of folks liking Xavier, just sort of anecdotally we're hearing. A First Four teams have reached the Final Four twice, I mentioned that. VCU, remember Shaka Smart's VCU team in 2011?
29:45
Yep. And then UCLA, um, 2021, the fighting Alvares of UCLA in 2021. [laughs] They got there.
29:53
And First Four team, as I mentioned, a First Four team has reached the round of 32, I think this is the more significant one, 12 of the last 13 years.
30:02
So again, with all the, the criticism of North Carolina being in, none of that matters now moving forward, and would anybody, would anybody be surprised to see North Carolina not only get out of the First Four, but maybe win a first round game?
30:14
Or, or any of those teams. Xavier, perhaps. Um, so again- A first four team has reached the round of 32 12 of the last 13 years. The last team from the Pacific/Mountain time zones to win the title,
30:29
you know how long it's been? Arizona 1997. Wow. Last team from the Pacific or Mountain time zones to win the title, Arizona 1997. Was it UCLA in one of the f- championship games against Florida?
30:48
Or was that a final four? Yes. Yeah, no, they've gotten close. Yeah. Right. They've gotten close. That's pretty wild. Yeah. Uh, top eight, so this is, this is now an interesting one.
30:58
Top four seed, a top four seed has lost in the first round in 15 of the last 16 tournaments. So again, it's never chalk early. It's never like the first, it's never like all top four seeds get to the Sweet 16.
31:12
That goes back to, to if we're p- if you're pa- playing in the upset- Yeah... uh, rewarded pools, keep that one in mind for sure. But I, but this, this, this line is, I'm talking about the first round.
31:20
Forget e- forget even the round of 32. In the round of 64, a top four seed has lost in the first round in 15 of the last 16 tournaments.
31:30
Only once the last 16 years have the top four gone un s- gone unscathed into the round of 32. At least one Dibble, uh, d- Dibble, [laughs] or- Rob... Rob Dibble making a, uh, appearance on the show.
31:41
At least one double-digit seed, I mentioned this earlier, at least one double-digit seed has reached the Sweet 16 since 2008. Two years ago, 15 of 16 were single digits, though. We g- we almost broke that streak.
31:54
But at least one double-digit suite has, uh, double-digit seed has reached the Sweet 16 since 2008. A double-digit seed has made the Final Four in four of the last eight tournaments.
32:06
Gotta l- gotta watch out for those Swedish schools. [laughs] I thought Dustin Swedelson was here. Uh, and then I, I mentioned this, all four number one seeds have reached the Final Four only once, 2008,
32:19
where it was one, one, one, one. So if, uh, Jay Will- Williams and Jay Billis' predictions, uh, are gonna come true yesterday, that would be the first time since 2008. Uh, three teams
32:31
have reached the first, oh, three teams, oh, no, that was, that was a different one from last year. Here one. No team has three-peated. We should probably have started with this, right? UConn is trying for a three-peat.
32:41
We don't even mention UConn because, uh, let's just say, gonna get tough, gonna be tough for them to get out of the second round, out of the round of 32. But no team has three-peated since UCLA 1967 through '73.
32:52
They won seven in a row. No team has three-peated since, and we've had, we've had tries at it.
32:57
And then the AP number one at the end of the regular season, which is Duke today, the AP number one at the end of the regular season has won the tournament only three times since 2000.
33:09
Last year's UConn team, Kentucky in 2012, and Duke in 2001. Yeah, that's a good one, but it makes more sense after you brought up the stat about the conference tur- the at large bid w- uh, winning so often. Yeah.
33:21
Yeah, that's right. AP number one at the end of the regular season, which would have won their conference tournament- Right... right, won the tournament only three times since the year 2000.
33:29
So again, just, you know, some stuff to, uh, chew on- Mm-hmm... as you fill in your brackets. Some of them just sort of narrative. Some of them might have some, some basis to it.
33:37
Uh, we'll come back, more college hoops and more. Some more of our first round bets. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:44
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Doug Wedge, uh, posted the original video we had of that, uh, that whole Todd story with the, uh, the brackets a couple years ago.
34:02
Doug Wedge winning or finishing in second, I think he did, in, uh, DraftKings. He says, "I really do owe Todd a nice steak dinner at least." At least. Yes. At least. [laughs] That would cover it.
34:12
Um, but we did a whole thing about it here on the show, so the video is out there. Um, it's time for our G Bank, best bets of the day. G Bank, the o- r- the official bank of VSiN.
34:22
Here, uh, on this show and every show on the network, every host, every guest, all of their bets recapped. Uh, I've got three college basketball plays. I, I talked about Grand Canyon plus 11 against Maryland again.
34:32
Uh, I love the Crab Five, but this is one of these things where it's, you do wonder if, uh, Queen, Gillespie, Miguel, Reese, Rice, it, like you wonder if that lack of depth eventually catches up with them in the tournament.
34:46
Not to say that it would game one, but I just think Grand Canyon is a good enough team where this number was way inflated. It's still 10. I would bet it at 10 still. Uh, Georgia, I alluded to this with, uh, Wes.
34:56
I thought that's a little too much against Gonzaga. I don't know what to make about the, this version of the Zags, but six seemed like a lot.
35:03
And then this one, which I made sort of on the spur of the moment, I kind of regretted right afterwards. UC San Diego plus three. It's two and a half now. Um, I bet it when the lines came out yesterday.
35:13
But it, it's just, I really like that Wolf golden twin towers thing- Yeah... that Michigan does.
35:19
And I do wonder if this became too sexy of a, uh, not too sexy, but too common of a, of a thought that the Tritons are gonna win 16 in a row, and Michigan, despite winning the, uh, the Big Ten tournament, um, they're vulnerable.
35:33
They did, again, the committee did Michigan no favors at five having to face UCSD. Um, but I don't know. I, I don't feel great about that play even though I have it in pocket.
35:42
Well, that's, uh, maybe I'll end up on the other side then and- Instant regret... and I'm feeling more comfortable 'cause you and Wes both, both on, uh, San Diego, but I kinda had that same thought afterward.
35:51
I'm like, "Wow, Michigan's got, they got some things to deal with on that side of the ball with, uh, with the size." Um, that'll be interesting. Nu- nothing for me yet in college hoops.
36:00
One NBA play for me tonight, Nuggets plus five and a half. Uh, if you're looking at the board now, wait on some of these injury reports to come out.
36:09
Uh, Jokic questionable, Steph questionable, a lot of questionables, uh, in that game tonight.
36:14
Are you as, I'm, I mean, I know I'm kinda nerdy with that kinda stuff, what I was bringing up earlier with Carl Sack, which is if OKC and Cleveland Have a flourish here to end the season, and their whole seasons have been flourishes, quite frankly.
36:27
But let's just say they, they go, what do, what do they need to go? Like, 10 and one or what is it down the stretch now?
36:33
'Cause one of them is, you know, basically they could end up, either one of them could end up with the third best all-time record in NBA history. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
36:41
Um, only the 73 and nine Warriors who lost the title in 2016, and the 72 and 10 Bulls who won the title when they went 72 and 10, uh, only they could possibly have a better record if the 56 and 11 Cavaliers or the 56 and 12 Thunder go crazy here down the stretch, and that's an amazing thing to me.
36:59
That's amazing. I was, I was, uh, glad you brought it up. It's very fascinating.
37:03
We'll get back to finishing best bets here in a second, but I, I, it's, it's great 'cause I was sitting there listening to Carl answer it and it's,
37:10
I wouldn't put these two teams in that same stratosphere, but here- I wouldn't either... but here's the reason why, Gil. It's not, Carl's partially right.
37:18
I mean, it's just y- y- you haven't accomplished something, something yet until you've accomplished it, right? But it's the, the overwhelming star power that was on Golden State and on the Chicago Bulls. You were not,
37:31
there wasn't really many concerns about how far could they get in the playoffs, right? I think because of the lack of playoff experience, bec- yes, SGA's, SGA is most likely gonna win MVP.
37:41
Donovan Mitchell's a star, but that is not Steph Curry and Michael Jordan when you're talking about it, right? No, of course not.
37:46
So I, I do think there is, there's regular season success, and they're gonna go down as two of the best regular season teams in history, and they deserve that, but I understand why there's still questions of how w- could that translate to playoff success.
37:59
Yeah. But it, it would, it would beat the, let's put it this way. It would beat the, uh, 69 and 13 Lakers of '71, '72, Bulls of '96, '97, another Jordan squad- Mm-hmm...
38:11
and the Sixers before either of us were born, '66, '67. And then the 68 and 14 Celtics from early in the '70s, also don't remember.
38:20
There was a 67 and 15 version of the Celtics in the mid, uh, '80s, and one of the early Jordan teams was 67 and 15. So anyway, just it's rare air. I, I mean Thun- No pun intended...
38:28
Thunder great, [laughs] Yeah No pun intended. Thunder great, I mean, greatest point differential in NBA history right now in the regular season. That's incredible. That is incredible. Kobe and Shaq had a 67 and 15.
38:42
Um, the Mavericks had a s- I don't remem- wow, the Mavericks were tw- were 67 and 15 in 2006, 2007. I don't remember that. Hmm. And another Steph Curry team was 67 and 15 also. There was a bunch of 67 and 15s.
38:55
A couple, uh, Warriors teams were 67 and 15. Anyway, that's the kind of rare air. Carl Sack is on the Spurs plus nine tonight against the Lakers. That's plus eight and a half now.
39:05
Um, he's thinking about a total too, but he did not o- uh, officially release that. So Spurs plus nine from Carl Sack. Uh, then to college basketball, Tim Murray joined us. Mount St.
39:15
Mary's and American, a, uh, [laughs] as Joe Peter was saying, anybody who's lived in the DMV, it's like a, uh, Congressional page rivalry game between Mount St. Mary's and American.
39:26
He's going under 131 and a half, the committee, uh, doing that with a little, uh, twinkle in their eyes it seemed like. Did, did you have any thoughts on that one, Gil?
39:33
I thought it was interesting Tim mentioning the, the top two guys out for Mount St. Mary's. I have zero thoughts on that one.
39:38
And then he, I, I guess I was, I was, I thought he was gonna go American for the side, and then he went under, and I was thrown a little bit. Um, Wes Reynolds joined us.
39:48
He also is on UC San Diego, the Tritons of UCSD, uh, against Michigan, taking the points. And then, um, this is, uh, in terms of the, the first four game. Mm-hmm.
40:00
This is, uh, Carolina, uh, laying four, Carolina laying four, and, um, again, just because they, you know, most people believe, by the way, they're playing San Diego State, um, that's tomorrow.
40:15
Just because they're th- just because most people think they don't deserve to be in the tournament, well, they're in it now, so there's no use complaining about it. Try to make money.
40:22
And UNC, if you, again, believe those first four stats, maybe they're one of these teams that not only could they get by UC, U- uh, excuse me, San Diego State, but they could also win a first round game. We'll see.
40:32
I think, I think what's interesting about that one, Gil, is w- how does that get bet between now and tomorrow, right? 'Cause I think usually you would, you would say, "Hey, bigger name team.
40:42
A lot of the lo- lot of the public money's gonna come in on a North Carolina with that storied history." But I don't know, the way they've been talked about for the past few days- Yeah...
40:51
is it gonna kind of fl- uh, you know, flip over to the San Diego State side? And more importantly, this is where it gets to betting is one thing, your brackets are another. Mm-hmm. Right?
41:00
Betting is one thing, your survivor pool is another. Forget betting for a second in terms of the way we talk about betting ATS, but the other form, the more co- the more widespread form of, of bracketology, right?
41:11
Like filling out your brackets. That would be, to me, if you're in one of these pools, that's more susceptible to folks following the mainstream media, media narrative, right?
41:22
The betting market's a little more sophisticated one would think. Yeah. One would think. Yeah, you would think.
41:25
But in your brackets, y- let's say you're in a bracket with just your buddies or whatever, a bunch of people, they're all listening to these shows and, "Yeah, UNC sucks." Right? That, yes.
41:34
That's, that's the one where you're like, "Oh, really? You think that? Watch this." And you have UNC advancing to, you know, the round of 32 or whatever. Right. So I'm just saying, there, there are ways to do it.
41:43
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42:10
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42:15
Uh, I'm glad the three hole aggregate playoff at the, uh, Players Championship did not start- After our show started, but started rather beforehand, 'cause I would've totally tried to talk you out of laying the, laying the juice with Rory.
42:29
I wouldn't have, by the time the price it got out to, where it, where it opened up at is where I wanted to get in at. P- minus 150, I thought was good bet. Yeah. It got out to, like, minus 180.
42:37
I don't even know what the height of that was.
42:40
Now, I know it worked out for everybody, and, and mazel tov to everybody that it did work out, but again, on a three-hole aggregate with, which includes an island green, I'd have been like, "You sure you wanna do that?"
42:49
I wouldn't have said bet Spawn necessarily. No, I hear you. I hear you. But, but I would've been, yeah.
42:53
It, it's, look, for any playoff, I mean, the three holes, it helps a little bit, uh, right, as opposed to one, but you're right, all the water that's in play at TPC Sawgrass, uh, yeah, you gotta be careful with playoff betting, that's for sure.
43:03
Any Masters bets? I added another one. I got two. Oh. The Big Ox, Sepp Straka, my boy. He fi- hey, hey, if you just, if you played all my plays DFS for, like, top 20s, you did pretty well this week.
43:15
I just didn't because- Saturday, I had Straka. I, I rode you on the Straka play. Uh, that was the only bet I had. Saturday was so disappointing because the leaderboard was there for the taking- Yes... and nobody moved.
43:25
Yeah. He had an opportunity and just didn't come through. Yeah. Uh, I did, look, you've heard his name pro- probably brought up a c- past couple years, lefties, uh, at the Masters.
43:33
I did a- add Akshay Bhatia yesterday at a long price. Oh, what price? Uh, 90 to 1 on him. So 90 to 1 on him, Sepp Straka 100 to 1. Would you like a couple- S- Straka is longer than Bhatia. Yeah, he was when I bet it.
43:45
I think he's shorter now. I would imagine. Yeah. Yeah. I think he's shorter now. Would you like a couple random, uh, thoughts I had throughout the show? Please. [laughs] Yes.
43:52
San Diego colleges, best team names of any city that's out there, right? You got like, what, the Aztecs, the Tritons- Yeah... the Toreros. Yeah. Whoa, it's a good call. Right? Yeah.
44:01
Like, there's no other city that comes close. The mind of Kelly Bidlin. The m- mind of Kelly Bidlin. Uh, and then, uh, happy St. Paddy's Day. Uh, can you still pinch people?
44:10
Like, are kids going around in school pinching people, or is that like- Don't come near me. W- wait, what? Yeah. I don't know. Do they pinch? Oh, 'cause I should get pinched 'cause I'm not wearing green.
44:17
Yeah, I need to pinch you. No. Or is that, like, an HR violation? Well. I don't know these days. It's only an HR violation if I make it one, Kelly. [laughs] If I report you. Money Moves is next.
44:27
I see Matt Brown standing out there in the window. I'm gonna pinch him. Is Stormy with him, or is it just Matt and- He's just talking to himself. Oh, okay. Coming up right here on Vesin. Enjoy.
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