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Mar 17, 2026
A Numbers Game | March 17, 2026 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | March 17, 2026 | Hour 1
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46:09
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Transcript
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0:59
[electronic sound effects] The numbers tell the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
1:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM channel 158. Gil Alexander, Kelly Midlan- Heyo... in the house. Oh, playing games begin tonight.
1:24
I like what people call it, the first four. It's playing games. We'll always be playing games. I know, they're the first four. That begins tonight.
1:31
Two tonight, two tomorrow, and then the dance in earnest begins Thursday morning. This show brought to you by Prophet X, by the way. On the show today, Jay Cohn on hockey. We will talk about another sport.
1:42
Drew Ditzik, NBA and tennis. We will sprinkle in a little of that, and a little Mark Borchardt on Major League Baseball. But generally speaking, college basketball.
1:51
Matty Cox from Three Man Weave will join us with all of his plays in round one and his thoughts on his brackets.
1:58
Who is he gonna advance to the Elite Eight, Final Four, championship game, and who is he, who is he gonna crown the champion?
2:05
And then in studio for the third time in a week, and this will be the end of it because he's leaving town- [laughs]... Toddy Wishnev. Todd Wishnev- Yeah... um, who was on the Megapod.
2:17
We did the Megapod yesterday, the, the annual March Madness Megapod. It's me, it's Todd Wishnev, it's Will Hill. We brought the band back together with Jeff Parlet yesterday, the Grover Cleveland of producers.
2:28
We go through every bracket, round of 64. So if you want a deeper dive, every single bracket straight up in ATS, I say, uh, after this show, you should go to the Beating the Book podcast and listen to that.
2:39
Give that a listen. That is out now already. How'd it go? It went great. Good. And the reason I bring it up is because Todd is on today. One thing we did not get to, one thing we did get to will be on the show today.
2:50
One thing we did not get to is, who are the coaches he trusts and does not trust? Mm-hmm.
2:55
We will get, uh, Todd Wishnev, who's had the greatest college basketball season, maybe the greatest sports betting season I've ever witnessed in my life, uh, who watches more college basketball than any human being alive, or as much as any human being alive.
3:06
Uh, we'll get his thoughts on that. And let me just say this, you have to wait for him. He'll be on, in with us next hour because I'm gonna ask him to once again give his Elite Eight... Do I say elite wrong? Elite Eight.
3:22
Elite- You're fine. Okay. Just curious. When it came out of my mouth, I'm like, "What, what am I saying?" Eh, like I heard a, there was a, it's like a l- it was a hard L at the beginning.
3:29
No, no, no, for me, it was like my ill eight. You know what I mean? Oh. The Elite Eight. That just sounds cool. Yeah. Thanks very much.
3:35
Uh, Elite Eight Final Four championship game, and t- you will be shocked by who he has in the Final Four. Ooh. That's all I'm gonna say. All right. Let's go. And when I mean shocked, I, I'm not, I'm not overselling this,
3:50
okay? Over, under seven and a half seed. Well. Over? Over? Over. Okay. Over. Or... Yeah. It's like we're talking that big, okay. Over. Like it. Like it. That's all I gotta say. Let's go, Todd.
4:03
We don't, dude, whatever Kelly and I do for the next 90 minutes, not gonna matter now. That's, that- [laughs]... that's the headliner. Um, so couple things. Let's get a couple things out of the way. One, Tankapalooza.
4:15
There is a three-teamer to be played today, but it's only gonna get you, like, three bucks at the mo- uh, thir- 30 cents on the dollar at most. Mm.
4:22
Um, probably less than that, and one of them's the Spurs, and I don't know if I trust that they're gonna play Wembanyama- Yeah... on the back to back. So I'm not gonna play a Tankapalooza. Tankapalooza returns tomorrow.
4:32
The schedule lends to a Tankapalooza play. We're up three units in Tankapaloozas. That will return tomorrow. Um- I'm r- I'm right there with you.
4:40
I mean, look, I think there are, there are a couple legs you could be, I think you can be pretty confident about tonight, uh, in the Pistr- Pistons and the Knicks, right?
4:48
But it's massive money lines that you're laying there. If you wanna combine with others, though, like, y- you can if there's other things you're trying to do. Yeah. Like, I, I like the Thunder tonight.
4:55
I think the Cavs, uh, are a good look tonight. They just don't follow, they don't follow the Tankapalooza. That's right. Uh, tennis does return today in Miami, the second half of the Sunshine Double.
5:07
We'll get, uh, Drew Ditzik's thoughts on any matches that he has today. They, they, it turns on the women's side. Men's begins tomorrow.
5:15
Again, the, the l- early part of the hard court season ends with Indian Wells, followed by Miami, and then we go to clay. Clay court season begins.
5:24
Um, then we go grass, then we go back to hard court for the rest of the season. I have three plays in Miami today on the ladies' side. There's about 20 matches. I have three plays.
5:33
They're all dogs, one of which you can get a much better price than I can get, which I don't love to hear that I'm on the wrong end of the CLV, but Lord knows I've, uh, I've been on the bad result of good CLV before.
5:44
Mm-hmm. So hopefully I'm the good result of bad CLV here. Magdalena Frech is the first play, and that's the one you'll get a better price on. I got her last night, plus 114, vsin.com/uh, picks for subscribers.
5:57
Usually they get the better of it. Not this time. Frech is, I, I, like, out to plus 135 versus the American McCartney Kessler, but I'm on Frech.
6:04
I like her, uh, I like her hard court numbers here at this price Anna Blinkova plus 135 versus the American Sofia Kenin, and then Varvara Gracheva plus 117 versus Magda Linette.
6:18
So three dogs on the ladies' side today in Miami. Varvara. All right. Yeah. That's a name. V- V- Varvara. The, uh- Not Barbara or Barbara I feel like, I feel like it's 36 hours now of me just waiting for...
6:31
It, it's 2026, Gil. Can you explain to me how this is still a thing? How, we, like I'm just waiting for oddsmakers to post stuff. Yeah. I- it, whether it's golf, whether it's NBA, whether it's tennis futures. Yeah, yep.
6:43
They, even- Like I understood this 30 years ago where it's like, all right, we gotta get everything- I know... figured out for the NCAA tournament.
6:48
Well, the Indian Wells, there's a s- there's a s- very small turnaround between the draw and the first round matches, like 36 hours. Mm. Like Danny, we got DraftKings odds up for, uh, the men's side now for Miami. Yeah.
7:01
Been waiting on that for 24 hours. So they, they just, with some of these sports, they, they just, uh, they, I don't know what the excuse is here necessarily 'cause it's not nearly as tight of a window.
7:11
I mean, it's a tight window still, but it's not nearly as tight. The real big thing was like the NIT. Yeah. Right? Right, that one too. The NIT- That's up now... it's, it's sort of like, okay, well, can we...
7:19
But they can't do anything unless they get the matchups first, right? So they're, they are- Sure... beholden to that. But yeah, I agree with you. It's kinda, they kinda lollygag.
7:27
Also, like we're not, you know, maybe 40 years ago, right? Yeah, I need to pull, I need to pull one of my NBA guys off to help with the NCAA tournament stuff. I- okay, fine, right? Mm-hmm.
7:37
I don't know if I really believe that's how things work these days. I don't think it they do, they do. They're also well aware of their handle and what matters to them, right?
7:44
I, yeah, I mean, I think it's, I think it's that. No pressure, right? No pressure. Yeah. Yeah. But- Except for me, I'm putting the pressure on books.
7:52
I just wanna say this though, the, the thing that I am spending the most time on, just as if we wanna do a reflection of what my days are gonna be spent on here in the next couple days, next few days.
8:02
Well, and this is where it's b- uh, I know where you're going. This is where it's irritating me though 'cause I can't get like, I'm trying to get my golf out of the way, right? Right. I'm trying to get NBA stuff out.
8:10
Exactly. And then I can finally dive all the way into NCAA tournament stuff- Yes... and I'm being held back.
8:15
I agree that that's, okay, that's a great, that's actually well said because tennis in Miami is actually, 'cause I do it every day, it's just going to be a, a w- workmanlike distraction. Right. But I'll do it.
8:30
Gonna try to make money doing it, obviously. Expecting to make money doing it, but I really am more, my brain is all about Survivor. I, and I want it, that's where I want my brain to be too. That's right.
8:41
So it's- Like yesterday, I do all my golf handicapping. I'm ready to make all my bets, Gil. Yeah. I'm ready to bet. Just, just need books to post. So the Survivor obsession has begun. Yeah.
8:50
I went through the rules yesterday. We posted, uh, something online about it, uh, for those who missed it on the show. Went through the basic strategy tenets that I think you need to keep in mind.
9:00
Today I started, or last night and this morning, started looking at, okay, so who am I actually gonna pick? By the way, here's our Splash Sports Survivor contest, million-dollar high-stakes Survivor madness.
9:10
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9:22
app.splashsports.com/contests. Which means overlay, overlay as of right now. Right. We are overlay. Like that is- Overlay. We, we've almost gotten like too used to that, right?
9:30
Like this is [laughs] this is another massive contest with major potential for you guys to, uh, earn something. Fantastic.
9:36
So they're guaranteeing that prize, and they don't have the entry fee money to be commensurate with that prize, so it's an overlay. So okay,
9:46
whether you're in that one or in your own Survivor play, uh, Survivor pool, the one that I'm in, Kelly, is three entries max. We're in. We're in. Mm-hmm. Got you in. Three entries max,
9:58
one mulligan, one rebuy before the Sweet 16. Right. But you shouldn't use the mulligan as this crutch.
10:07
Ideally, you never have to use one because if you get bounced and you have to use one, you don't get the points for that round, and the other quirk is the team that knocked you out, you can't use them either.
10:17
But you don't get the points for that round. So ideally you don't use that, right? You wanna have points every single, not round, by the way, every single day. Pardon me.
10:23
10 days, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday this week, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday next week, Saturday, Monday, final four-week championship game. So 10 days total.
10:34
So I was mentioning yesterday how ideally you want a team that's gonna lose right afterwards, but I also said in the first round and the second round, that's not quite as important as it is in the Sweet 16 and the Elite Eight.
10:50
Mm-hmm. Then it's really important because the idea is you have to have teams left at the end.
10:55
So people who are thinking that kind of stuff now and thinking about their exact path to the end now, I would actually argue you're overdoing it. I don't think in the round of 64 you should really pay...
11:09
You, you should be aware, but you can't be like totally sacred with that- Mm-hmm... kind of stuff. So just looking at Thursday's game without sort of the longer term approach, Thursday and Friday. Thursday, Kelly,
11:22
I'll do Thursday here, we'll do Friday on the other side. Thursday, I think there's a conservative way to go about it. I think there's a friskier way to go about it. The conservative way about it is in the South,
11:36
fourth seeded Nebraska's taking on 13th seeded Troy. If Nebraska wins, first NCAA conference, you know, NCAA tournament win that will ever be for the, for Nebraska Cornhuskers. That would be history.
11:48
The next team they would most likely have to play is Vanderbilt. Mm-hmm. So a conservative play would be Nebraska, right?
11:53
Also, a conservative play would be in the West, the six seed BYU, they're gonna take on a play-in team, and if they win, they would take on Gonzaga. I think a lot of people would think Gonzaga would knock them off.
12:05
Maybe you don't, but I'm just saying if you, if you're looking to play conservatively, maybe number four Nebraska in the South is a play, maybe number six BYU in the West is a play. Yeah, I like both those. Okay.
12:17
On the other side, though, I'm gonna give you the more what some would consider riskier way to play this, which I think you have to take your shots because remember, ultimately, the tiebreaker is
12:32
the, the higher number of seeding, right? Mm-hmm. So you add up your seeds at the end. If all things are equal, if we're both at the end, me and you, but I've taken more shots at, uh, lower seeds, then I'll win.
12:45
So we'll get to the, the friskier version of that, the f- that and Friday on the other side. Numbers game. VSiN. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners.
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[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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14:03
Use promo code VSiNMM, as in March Madness, and become the King of March. Hey, if they just came to you out of the blue and were like, "Hey, we, we, we got an extra seat open to go to space"- Yeah... would you go? No.
14:18
Me neither. No. No interest. [laughs] No interest. I kinda figured that would be your answer. Sort of like- There's just certain things- [laughs]... that sound better on paper. I'm good. Let me tell you that thing.
14:29
When I- I'm good... when I was at KML back in the day, the Blue...
14:32
So every October in San Francisco, although they didn't do it last year, so I'm not sure if they still do it, but every October in San Francisco, the Blue Angels do a show. Mm-hmm. Fleet Week, right?
14:40
Blue Angels do a show where San Francisco- Oh, I know exactly where you're going with this By the way, they come out of nowhere sometimes. Uh, if you're on a roof of a building, it's terrifying. But it's, but it's all...
14:46
But so we as, as jocks at the st- at the station, we had an opportunity the week prior to, to the show to fly with the Blue Angels. Mm-hmm. And at one point, I signed up for it. I'm like, "Oh, man. I'm gonna go up there.
15:03
This is gonna be awesome." Yep. And then, like mercifully, two guys who had seniority over me, Trace and Franzen, Franzen, who's a DJ over at Hakusan now, [laughs] they, they bumped me out. So they ended up doing it.
15:15
And after I got bumped down, I'm like, "Who in the hell am I kidding?" Yeah. I... First of all, I woulda passed out in 1.3 seconds. So th- that is th- things of working in local news, right? Yeah.
15:27
In down South Florida, sure, the Blue Angels come once a year, right? S- they always do that. They grab a reporter or something to jump in. That's either, it either goes really well, Gil, or really bad.
15:36
The, it's, it's like, it- Oh... thing, things that, things that I would pass up, that every time and then the, the first pi- uh, the, the first pitch for, at a game.
15:45
Just like you, you gotta be real confident and you know exactly what you're doing. You don't go off the mound. You g- you go off, go off the ground.
15:53
Everybody gets all confident to go off the mound, and then it just, it just ends in disaster. You gotta, you gotta take some warmups. You gotta take some warmups, yeah. As, as George W.
16:01
Bush famously did before his great pitch right after 9/11. Yeah. Those are, uh, those are two things, though, that I have seen people far too confident in- Yeah... that have gone badly.
16:10
Chrissy, didn't Chrissy Anders do one at, uh, the local Aviators stadium here, I think? I believe he did, yeah. He did. I believe he did. I wonder how that went. Um, I'd love to do that, though.
16:19
Sure that would [laughs] sure that would. At least I'm on the ground for that one. I would, I would- Yeah... yes. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. I would do that. The other one at KML was, oh- I would be incredibly nervous...
16:26
we had this jock this afternoon, jock, Rick Chase, back in the '90s. He was a famous jock. He, he used to go skydiving, and one time he was like- Oh, no... "Hey, Gil, you wanna go skydiving?" I'm like, "Yeah, absolutely.
16:35
Sure." And then ag- again, something happened and I'm like, "Who [laughs] who am I kidding?" Well, I, I would even... Again, when you're in your 20s, you're like, "Whatever. I'm invincible." Yeah. Yeah.
16:44
Uh, back to Survivor for a second. So
16:48
Thursday, by the way, if you, if you think, if you think you're not gonna get sick of me talking about Survivor over the next few days, I apologize in advance 'cause it's gonna happen.
16:56
So Thursday, the conservative way, again, Nebraska, a four seed out of the South, I think versus Troy makes a lot of sense 'cause then Nebraska would have to play Vanderbilt. Mm-hmm.
17:07
Be history for Nebraska, then they'd have to take on the Commodores. I think they would lose there. So that would be a conservative way to play.
17:13
And I think BYU, the six seed out of the West, again, playing a play-in winner, then they'd have to take on Gonzaga the next game. And whether they won that or not, I don't think you'd wanna play that game.
17:22
I don't hate Wisconsin either, but I know, I know there's some people- I think, see, I, I think Wisconsin's better than most, so I wouldn't wanna use them early. Okay. All right.
17:32
The f- the friskier, the riskier or friskier way to u- to play Thursday, again, tiebreakers matter, so you're incentivized to take lower seeds. By the way, I, again, we do this every year.
17:45
I consider myself a fairly intelligent human being. I still can't get the higher and lower seeds thing right. Lower is what? The 11s, 12s, 13s, 14s, right? 15s, 16s. Ri- uh, yes. Correct. Okay. Yes.
17:56
So you're incentivized to take the lower seeds. So I think on Thursday, Kelly Bidley, who I'm competing with in this competition, I shouldn't say it out loud with Kelly sitting here, but for you and your survivor pool,
18:06
South Florida is an 11 seed in the East. They take on number six, Louisville. Mm-hmm. I think that's an option because then Michigan State would probably be your opponent in the next round.
18:16
So I think if you think the Bulls of South Florida beat Louisville That's an option. Mm-hmm. Maybe you don't. Maybe you're like, "I'm not doing that." And I'm... This is all opinion-based, right?
18:24
But I'm just saying in my head, here's what I'm kind of considering. And also, the 11 seed in the South, VCU taking on a banged-up UNC team, right? Mm-hmm. At number six. UNC not the team they were when they were
18:39
at full strength. And then the next round would be against the Illini, so most likely. So I think VCU is an interesting... The two 11 seeds, South Florida and VCU on Thursday are real survivor options.
18:52
Again, teams that you think you can use, they'll get a win, but then will be bounced shortly thereafter, if not the next round itself. Friday becomes a little more
19:04
interesting to me because I don't think I have it as clear.
19:07
I, one, one play that I do think I have clear is number seven Miami is taking on number 10 Mizzou in the West, the winner of which will probably play Purdue, the s- the two seed.
19:18
I think Miami is a good survivor play on Friday 'cause I don't think Mizzou is very good. By the way, Jeff Parles, who went to Mizzou, the Harvard of Boone County, [snorts] copyright Ben Wilson.
19:28
Um, I think Miami's a play there in Survivor. The other, the other sort of bucket from which I think there is another survivor play or two is, are both in the Midwest.
19:45
There's that little bucket of four that features Texas Tech taking on Akron. Oh, yeah. The winner of which might play Alabama. Alabama's a four seed taking on Hofstra.
19:57
Now, the Aidan Holloway thing yesterday, 24 hours ago- Crazy... Kelly and I were on air. We're like, "Aidan Holloway just got... They found a pound of, of weed at his h- at a residence. We're assuming it's his." Mm-hmm.
20:10
And we're like, "Ah, you know, the wheels of justice, whatever, he's still gonna play." Well, turns out he made, he looks like he's not gonna play 'cause apparently, uh, [laughs] I...
20:20
By the way, can I just repeat what you said off air? 'Cause I agree with it completely. Can I say it? No, of course, yeah. I'll say it right now. It's a complete setup. [laughs] Uh, really?
20:28
They showed up at a residence for a pound of weed? Coincidental timing. Oh, let me, let me just randomly roll up to this place. Also, like the, I was talking about it with JBT also. Just, like b- it's 20- 2026. Oh, bro.
20:41
How, how many states were even- Bro... this would be illegal in, right? You, you, you forgot I, I lived in California all my adult life. Ca- yeah, California in the 19, uh, 60s called.
20:51
[laughs] And they're like, "What are you doing?" Exactly. "What are you doing?" We gotta update some laws.
20:55
Like, I'll never forget when the Texas- But- When the Texas Rangers played the San Francisco Giants in the, uh, 2010 World Series, and I'll never forget Josh Hamilton in right field.
21:04
He's like, "This place smells like weed." He was so outraged by it, right? And by the way, I was like, [laughs] "We resemble that remark."
21:10
And there was like a, there was a Rangers reporter who would, who was broadcasting from McCovey Cove, and while he was doing his broadcast, there were kids openly, now you're not supposed to do this, right?
21:20
But openly [laughs] openly just at a, at a blunt. And, and the reporter was just mortified. This is 2010.
21:31
And so you have to understand that for some of us in this country, these sensibilities, like the fact that he would get nabbed for this, is just so ridiculous. Anyway. Anyway. It, it's one thing, though.
21:40
The timing is just... W- really? Yesterday morning? Well, exactly. It's a complete setup. But anyway, he may not play. So maybe Alabama is a four seed over Hofstra 'cause without Holloway, can they still beat Hofstra?
21:51
Probably. Mm-hmm. But I don't know if they can beat the winner of Texas Tech, Akron after that. So Alabama's an interesting play. Also, Akron is an interesting play. Yeah. Right? At, as a 12 seed.
22:03
And some may say, some actually may say Texas Tech is the interesting play. But I actually, Akron as a 12 seed would be the, the in- more interesting one.
22:10
The- So, so I think the, I think this bubble's still fascinating though- Yes... if you're taking different paths, right? You and I were talking off air. Yes.
22:16
I think I'm gonna go very much like I've done NFL recently of like we get three entries, so this makes it very easy for me anyways. Three is what I usually play in Circa NFL.
22:25
One's gonna kinda be my true kinda North Star path, what I would normally do, and then I'm gonna do one that's very conservative, one that's very aggressive.
22:32
And I think the conservative and aggressive routes you could tie in to this. Yes. You know, go Alabama, maybe you wanna go real aggressive and go into Akr- uh, go with Akron then if they make it the next round.
22:45
They set up that kid. Who, who, who's got an agenda? I... Ah, those, those sharp kids from Hofstra always looking to, uh, looking to one, one-up people, you know? What, what Auburn kid was over at- [laughs]...
22:56
having a party at Alabama was like, "Oh, I noticed something in, uh, Holloway's dorm." La- Lane Kiffin, uh, really getting, uh, his roots in down the, down there in the SEC. Uh, you know what this means.
23:06
You gotta step up Houston Mallette. Do your thing. Uh, the other one in, in the Mountain West is I think however you handicap the, the 7-10 game between Kentucky and Santa Clara is an interesting thing. Mm-hmm.
23:16
'Cause if you lean Santa Clara, I think a 10, playing a 10 is interesting. But maybe you think Kentucky's better than Santa Clara.
23:22
Playing a seven ain't the worst thing in the world either 'cause the winner of that would most likely play Iowa State. Ah, yes. So anyway- I, I wish I had a better feel for that game...
23:33
just food for thought, Thursday, Friday survivor. And again, ideally you're thinking of your path all the way, but I would just argue doing it in the round of 64 is a little premature. Mm-hmm.
23:45
Unless you have just, like, you know, computer brain. I'm just saying. Great stuff. I love it. Yeah. I, this, this, so I just- I love it...
23:52
if you really wanna know what I wanna think about every day all day this week, it's not the handicapping tennis. This is what I wanna think about. And you're right.
23:59
You just wanna, like, okay, let's, let's handicap our stuff- Right. Yeah... so we can get to the good, the fun stuff. No. That's right. Um, we'll come back. Cavalcade of guests.
24:08
Matty Cox will join us, but before that, Jake Hahn on hockey. How about that? Next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the eSports betting network.
24:14
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24:30
Splash Sports offering a $1 million guarantee in to- in, uh, contest prizes in a high-stakes survivor contest, and as Kelly just said, there's an overlay currently. $1,000 to enter, one million on the line.
24:43
It's NFL survivor, but for the big dance. Just make one pick per day. You cannot use the same team twice, which adds a strategic element. Outlast everyone else, and you're n- you're in for a share of a million dollars.
24:53
Right now, new players using promo code VSiNMM26 get a 50% deposit match up to $100, a free Quick Picks entry up to $20 on them, plus a 100% Quick Picks payout boost on an entry up to $20.
25:05
Entries close March 19th, Thursday morning. Do not wait. Head to splashsports.com/vsin. Use code vsinmm26. Gotta be 21 and over. Available in select states only. Nevada not one of them, correct? Yeah. Mm.
25:19
Awesome contest. It's great. An awesome, uh, setup that we're giving people. 50% deposit match. Yeah. Free DFS entry. That's nice. For sure. We get tweets beating the book.
25:32
Uh, T Pars too, "Big thank you to Gil, Will, Todd, Parlay for the March Madness beating the book mega pod. Great minds breaking down the bracket, and who could forget the Florida Atlantic run from a few years ago?
25:42
Let's cast some winners, gents." Yeah, he's referring to 2023 when Will called FAU to get to the Final Four. It was incredible.
25:49
And Todd, had he paid heed to my advice, had entered the DraftKings contest, would have tied for second and made $35,000. Did he do it? No, he didn't do it. It's gonna be tough.
26:00
The only thing is, thank God he d- wouldn't have finished first 'cause I don't think Todd would be here today. He would be so distraught. It's gonna be tough for, uh, to beat that FAU run here anytime soon.
26:10
That was so much fun. So great. Uh, just like, hey, m- me having ties to that school and then Will having the ticket. Remember we were having Ken Lavica on the show, like, every week? Ken Lavica.
26:18
That was, that was a blast. Jesse Welch, "Odds on Kelly showing up today looking like an 18th century British monarch." What does that ever mean? I brought that up yesterday about the Oscars. Oh, right.
26:26
One of those guys at the Oscars- Yeah, that's-... who's wear- That's right... wearing ridiculous glasses. Uh, Doug Wedge, "Time for my yearly name drop.
26:32
Back with a Fantastic Four March Madness betting," talking about the mega pod. Doug Wedge was the guy how he, he did finish tied for second, I believe, in the DraftKings contest.
26:40
That's how we knew Todd would have as well. Used all of Todd's picks. Um, let's see. Doopa doopa doo. This is from, uh, Johnny, let's see. Jeff Kuykendall, "You got me into handicapping tennis. Thank you. It's a ball.
26:55
I only handicap women for now, and I was wondering how heavy you take into account Elo and, and, uh, DR into your handicapping. Have a great day, guys. Daily listener." I take it into account, but I have my own numbers.
27:05
Um, but Jeff, I'm so glad you're doing it. I love that you're involved now. The RGB, the social beacon, "Kelly, you should think about a trip to Antarctica.
27:12
They now offer flights via passenger jet that land on an ice runway, and you stay a few days. Very rare experience." Okay. Okay? Put it on my list. I'd do that.
27:21
And then we're getting a lot of this with the, uh, with the Aiden Holloway thing.
27:23
Nate King says, "Could the police or someone in the area wanted to bust someone with Bama hoops because they're upset how the Miller situation was handled?"
27:30
A lot of people bringing up the Brandon Miller thing as a sort of- I mean, who knows on all this? Yes. Who knows? Who knows? Who knows?
27:37
It's ju- It- Yes, it's just hard for us to sit here doing a show yesterday and think, oh yeah, this is, this is not coincidental at all. Yeah. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he comes to us from north of the border.
27:47
Toronto, Canada. The T-dot. They call it the T-dot anymore? Uh, JCon, ladies and gentlemen, @JHan4, H-A-H-N on Twitter. J-H-A-H-N, the number 4.
27:59
Uh, he, of course, the co-host of The Point and the Fantasy Hockey Show, not to mention co-host of NHL Fantasy on Ice, SiriusXM NHL for the first two, uh, and of course, NHL Fantasy can be the, uh, or, or is the Twitter handle for the other.
28:12
Jake, good morning to you, sir. Good morning to you both. Happy to be here. Obviously a very fun, busy sports week as well with March Madness, and hey, we've got a World Baseball Classic final tonight- Yes...
28:23
with the US represent- US, Venezuela. That should be a lot of fun.
28:26
That Venezuela team is, uh, has been an exciting watch throughout the course of the tournament, and obviously the US is a, a heavy favorite in that game, but that should be, that could be an interesting game tonight, guys.
28:34
US a heavy favorite. Was it minus 280 I saw on this game, uh, for the United States? Uh, Venezuela, though, great team. Maybe not quite as stacked as Dominican Republic and the US team, but a great team nonetheless.
28:45
Um, it's gonna be Nolan McLain. Didn't go so well with Nolan McLain the last time, as I recall. Uh, and Eduardo Rodriguez going for Venezuela. There it is, minus 285, mi- uh, plus 225 on the comeback.
28:56
By the way, USA, uh, uh, we mentioned this yesterday, Jake, they, they win on, on a very, uh, generous strike three call to end the game the other night against the DR, and then today, like Venezuela had, they played last night.
29:10
Th- Didn't the World Baseball Classic think this through? I, I was wondering that as well with the rest factor, and I, I see, uh, [laughs] I see Kelly shaking his head. I don't think they really thought this one through.
29:20
I, I think it's just, you know, uh, scheduling and obviously they gotta get these games in, right, and everybody's gotta get back and, and get the MLB season going.
29:27
So I, I get, I understand that you kind of have to, to do your best with it. One team's gonna be at a bit more of an advantage. But hey, maybe, maybe Venezuela just rides that wave from last night.
29:36
It was a, a fun win for them over the Italian squad who was also a great story in this tournament. So, uh, I, I don't mind Venezuela there on the run line. Maybe, uh, maybe at least keep it tight with the US.
29:44
I don't know about win, but, but maybe keep it within a run. All right, Mr. Man. You gave us Cameron Young last week. Congratulations at the Players Championship. Well done. Thank you. Thank you, guys.
29:54
It's, I, I, I briefly talked with you before we, uh, I jumped on here, and golf betting is, uh, can be a very fickle game, and you s- you know, some years, like last year I hit eight winners, and everything was going my way, and, you know, every playoff went my way.
30:06
This year it's been a, it's been a struggle. I got Daniel Berger 200 to 1 at API thinking here we go. Oh. This is gonna be a big, big win, and we all kind of saw how that unfolded if you watched golf on that Sunday.
30:17
So you're kind of down, you're thinking, man, am I ever gonna hit one again? And then the next week, uh, Cam Young steps up and, and wins like that. And there was a lot of guys in contention there late.
30:25
Fitzpatrick, obviously. Ludwig, who had the lead most of the weekend, uh, blows up there on the back nine. So, uh, glad to see all the Cam Young tickets out there.
30:32
And, uh, uh, Valspar is up this week, which is a tournament that has actually probably been my most successful tournament betting- Uh-oh... uh, in history. So, uh, so here we go. Way to ride the wave into Valspar, guys.
30:41
Okay, so who's your guy? Yeah, who's winning, Jake? Who's your guy at the Valspar? So I got two bets in here right now, guys. I got Rio Hitsatsune. I grabbed a, an early 55 to one on Sunday night.
30:50
Uh, you know this, when you hit a winner on Sunday, you immediately are, you're looking at the odds board for next week thinking, "Hey, can I find some odds?"
30:56
That there was a couple sites that did have odds out on Sunday night. So I, I grabbed the Hitsatsune. I felt like he was gonna be very popular. Good finish at Valspar last year.
31:03
He's just been striking the ball really well this year, so he comes in with some good form.
31:07
So I grabbed him, and guys, I gotta do it for the first time since he's returned to the PGA tour, I'm going with Brooks Koepka here at the Valspar. I, I like, I like where his game is trending. He can't putt.
31:16
He cannot make a putt right now at all, so that's gonna have to flip in some fashion, but he's been striking the ball sneaky well here, and I think this course sets up nicely for him, and you're getting a pretty good number.
31:25
Uh, you could probably shop at close to around 30 to one for Brooksie this week. Jay Kahn, ladies and gentlemen. I know I'm supposed to talk hockey with you, and we'll get your hockey picks.
31:33
One more question before we get your hockey plays today. Uh, the NCAA tournament, we're obsessed, obviously, this country is, the United States, with March Madness, the Big Dance, all kinds of monikers for it.
31:43
Do you in Canada, I always say this, like, the US, again, we take our amateur sports for granted. US is unlike any other country in the world with this.
31:50
As I like to say, uh, East Moscow Tech does not take on Southwest Russia State, right? Though those games don't happen. [laughs] Uh, in Canada, are you aware of March Madness? Do you play brackets?
32:03
It, it, honestly, it's massive up here for sports fans. Guys, I, I don't know if we follow it as much during the, the regular season.
32:10
I think that's where, you know, the coverage isn't quite there, but TSN, which is one of the big networks here, one of the big sports networks here, they have all the games, all the different channels.
32:17
Uh, w- it is covered heavily up here. So if you're going to a sports bar or if you're watching at home, it's very easily accessible, and people do get into it.
32:25
The bars are packed, uh, especially on the, on this opening weekend, Thursday, Friday, uh, into the weekend as well. I love it. It's one of my favorite, uh, sporting events of the year, especially this weekend coming up.
32:35
I don't claim to be a, an expert on college basketball, and I can't follow it as much as I used to. You know, you get a little busy with other sports, but, uh, I, I ramp it up for March Madness, guys.
32:43
I'm, I'm really excited for this week, and I, I would speak for, uh, I think a lot of Canadian sports fans that are in the same boat as me. All right. Just wanted your perspective on that.
32:51
To something you are expert in, the National Hockey League, let us get your plays. Starting with the Bruins and the Canadiens, you have a total play in this game.
32:59
So always a sneaky good rivalry here, Boston and Montreal. This one goes way back, guys, and a ton of importance for the playoff race in this game.
33:05
The Habs with a couple of bad losses over the weekend, both in regulation, and all of a sudden, that playoff spot gets a, a little dicey, so this is a big game for Montreal.
33:13
Boston played last night, so this is second half of a back-to-back for the Bruins, but they saved Jeremy Swayman for this game. So they saved their better goaltender for this one.
33:20
That's why I'm liking the under six and a half. I, I like how Swayman's been playing lately. Uh, you could certainly make it a, a case for the Vezina Trophy with how good he's been this year.
33:29
So I like him to keep it tight, uh, and with Boston on that second half of a back-to-back, maybe just don't have the juice offensively.
33:34
Six and a half feels like a pretty high total for this game with, uh, if Jeremy Swayman's involved. Um, did Montreal and Boston ever play in the Stanley Cup Final back in the day? Did they back in the day? Hmm.
33:45
Yes, 1978. Who could forget it? Classic. And '77, back to back in the '70s. Montreal won both times, I believe. Yeah, four, 4-0 in, uh, '77, 4-2 in '78. Scotty Bowman, the coach for the Canadiens back in the day.
34:00
All right, Predators at the Jets. You're on the Jets tonight. Two teams here that are probably going to miss but still think that they can make it, guys.
34:07
If you're asking me if either of them make it, I'd probably say no, but you can't tell them that right now while they're still mathematically alive. These teams are gonna fight it out here down the stretch.
34:14
I like the Jets on, on home ice. It's been a really bad season for Winnipeg coming in with high expectations. I think this is a fair price.
34:20
A Nashville team that's had a b- bit of a tricky schedule lately, while Winnipeg's been able to, to kind of hang out and, and chill at home.
34:26
This would be three in a row for, for the Jets, and they're trying desperately to climb themselves back in in here. Okay. Uh, by the way, Montreal and Boston also played in '53, '57, and '58, Kelly.
34:35
I know you remember those ones as well. Oh, yeah. Uh, Edmonton in regulation tonight against the Sharks. Third road game in four nights for the San Jose Sharks.
34:43
With travel now, they go from Eastern Canada over to Western Canada, so I think this is a really tough scheduling spot for this young Sharks team.
34:50
Maybe they're just so young they won't care, guys, but I don't like the scheduling spot for San Jose. I like Edmonton on the puck line or Edmonton regulation in this game tonight.
34:57
Okay, and lean Blue Jackets, but you're not gonna pull the trigger on that? I, I haven't got there yet, guys, but I just, I love the way this Jackets team is playing. Caroline is very, very good.
35:06
Tough to fade them, but, uh, I don't mind the Jackets as a home dog tonight. All right. Jay Kahn, everybody. Thank you, Jay. Enjoy the madness from north of the border. We appreciate it. You, you too, guys. Good luck.
35:15
Matty Cox next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Numbers game brought to you by Prophet X. Forget the bracket.
35:33
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36:04
We get tweets at Beat the Book. This is from, uh, Del Mymecap Radio.
36:08
He says, uh, "Fairleigh Dickinson women's team, 40 straight NEC wins, headed for Carver Hawkeye Arena Saturday w- versus number two seeded Iowa, a powerful mid-major located on the banks of the Hackensack River in North Jersey.
36:18
Go Knights. What a ride." There you go. Let's go. Shout out for, uh, Fairleigh Dickinson. FDU. JasonH11, "Disappointed that the free trip on Prophet X there is only for this planet.
36:27
Was hoping to invite Gil and Kelly to go to Mars." We wouldn't go anyways. We wouldn't go. Yeah. We'd, we'd politely decline. By the way, numbers game brought to you by Prophet X.
36:36
Brian Shaver, "Gil, can we do a, a numbers game survivor? For the listeners, winner gets a Todd Father T-shirt." I was saying yesterday we should do it where the, the first prize again, one day with Todd Wishnow.
36:46
Second prize, two days with Todd Wishnow Um, but the Todd Father T-shirt is interesting too. Uh, Deanna, Todd's friend, Deanna loves Todd. She's so, she's so thrilled that he ca- he's being called the Todd Father.
36:59
She's very, she's very excited about that. [laughs] Uh, James Saad, "Annual trek to Vegas for the madness, hoping to, uh, visit you guys.
37:05
Any quarter picks for Miami, or is this just so different than Indian Wells that players may struggle initially to get accustomed?" I don't usually play futures in Miami in the same way that I do Indian Wells.
37:17
So nothing from me at this point. Maybe Drew will have some coming up. Uh, Brian M., "One thing JCon missed on the Bruins-Canadiens game is Cole Caufield anytime goal scorer." I don't know if he missed it.
37:27
"Six games over the last two seasons he has nine goals. Their own Suzuki assists, seven in those games, and it's a plus 160, same game parlay." Well- Get it together, Jake...
37:35
sounds like, [laughs] sounds like you just want to bet that. [laughs] Uh, and then Ankit Kadi- uh, Kadakia, I hope I'm pronouncing that right, he says, I can't say these words o- on the radio.
37:44
Uh, the, a couple words Todd used on the podcast, again, I would point you- Ah... to the Beating the Book podcast. Will those words be referenced on ANG today? God, I hope not, Ankit. I hope not. Um,
37:56
let's talk with Matt Cox from Three Man Weave. One-third of the Three Man Weavers joins us now courtesy of the Progressive guest line. You can follow him on Twitter, @MattyCox. That's Matty with a Y, underscore C-O-X.
38:07
Three Man Weave's @3MW_CBB. He joins us now with the play-in games tonight, the NIT tonight, and of course, the madness in earnest beginning Thursday morning. Matt, what kind of, kind of week are you having so far?
38:19
How long was your podcast yesterday? Uh, two hours, Gil. Uh, short and sweet. Got through all of the...
38:27
I, I do feel like we disrespect the play-in game breakdowns, 'cause we're sort of, um, projecting how they play out into the round of 64. So it's one of those brackets sort of are built like that, right?
38:36
You're sort of picking sort of a, a package portfolio. Um, but no, uh, broke it all down.
38:41
I think we are, I, if I'm guessing, I think our hit rate should be about 99%, so perfect bracket, uh, loading for the Weave, so excited for that to kind of come to fruition. Okay, so do, l- let's start there.
38:53
Do you have any plays tonight or tomorrow night? Do you have any plays in the NIT tonight? Uh, I have nothing, uh, official. I'm sorry, no, I do have one play tonight. I forgot this is a Tuesday.
39:05
I have South Alabama, actually, as a big dog, NIT. Um, I'm not really a big believer in, like, the Auburn doesn't care narrative, but certainly I can see why some people would, would agree with that.
39:15
Um, bet down to 17 and a half. I got 18, uh, opened at 19 and a half. Richie Riley, really good coach. You remember last season, they got snubbed from the NIT.
39:25
They got the invitation, and they got a call back and said, "Oh, no, by the way, sorry, you're not invited," 'cause they had failed or they messed up sort of the scheduling and booking process.
39:33
Um, and so now they get the invite back this year after a pretty successful season. I think he's just a coach that needs to be at a better program, frankly.
39:39
They play a really, really, really funky zone that's hard to prepare for on short prep.
39:44
Uh, historically much better as a dog, as a, than a favorite, so that's my only action tonight, a situational play on a coach I like against a team that might just be sort of walking as a zombie team after their, uh, kind of tumultuous fall toward the end of the year and, and missed bid for the tournament.
39:59
Okay, so nothing play-in tonight or tomorrow night. Nothing? No. Uh, tomorrow night I have Prairie View. Oh, okay. Um, against Lehigh. Yeah, very weird matchup, SWAC versus Patriot. Um, should be a chaotic game.
40:14
It- it's actually got bet under. A lot of these Dayton first fours get bet under, it feels like. I know it's sort of historically, I think a, an under venue. Um, it's played, played more neutral lately.
40:23
I just think Prairie View's the better team, and Byron Smith is a really good coach who I think people forgot about because he had just a really bad run of injuries the last few seasons.
40:31
I mean, he basically took his program from the, the de- you know, the depths of hell and brought it back to prominence before COVID. COVID set him back. Now he's finally got a good team this year, some talent.
40:41
They're the more athletic team, and I think they're well-coached enough to kind of deal with Lehigh's, um, Lehigh's stuff. So I like the Panthers tomorrow, uh, plus three and a half, plus three.
40:50
Prairie View to keep it going, or at least to cover the spread anyway against Lehigh.
40:53
And Gil, hey, he, if they can win this, and then they upset Florida, which I know we all think is very likely, uh, they can march on to the Houston Regional and play a home game. That's right.
41:03
[laughs] So it'd be fun to see a- That's right... a potential Prairie View versus Houston Elite Eight matchup. Two Houston-based schools. Should be an epic battle if that comes to pass.
41:10
See, Matty, this is why w- this is why we have you on, for angles that no one else has thought of. It's already on my bracket. That kind of stuff right there.
41:16
They're, they're extra motivated, Gil, because they have the close regional. That's right. Extra motivated, yeah. Extra motivated. They're like, "Wait, what?" [laughs] Um, okay. What about, what about round of 64 games?
41:26
What are your favorite bets? Um, I'll be honest, I don't have any really big bets this year. A lot of smaller bets. Um, I did take UCLA, a minus five. Okay.
41:37
I think the obvious angle there is they've not been great going west to east. That has sort of been, that's been the kind of bugaboo for a lot of these West Coast power conference teams.
41:45
Um, but against USF, UCF, excuse me, Donnie D- Donnie Dent should be fully healthy. I think Bill Udou should play and be effective, and I think they match up really well with this UCF team.
41:55
So I think Nick Cronin, um, sort of eschews the, uh, perception that they can't win, uh, outside of their own, the friendly confines of the West Coast. I think this, this number is, is shaded that direction.
42:07
Uh, so that's priced in. Um, and just so if you account for that, the other matchup angles I like, my numbers I have is seven and a half, so I'm gonna trust it, and I took UCLA, uh, as one of my first round plays here.
42:17
Uh, Cronin versus Dawkins. I know Dawkins's been very good this year, but I think it's a big coaching mismatch in my opinion. Okay.
42:22
And this is just also just a reflection for, for some who are, you know, listening who just landed on college basketball.
42:28
A lot of folks who bet college basketball year long, by the time you get to the madness, you don't have much, right? Historically, you don't play a lot ATS in the madness, right? Correct. Yeah.
42:36
Yes, and just to, like, even my, uh... You know, I do a lot of, um, you know, I have my own qualitative power ratings.
42:42
I have certain situational angles I track, and I have a model, so it's kind of a fusion of those three things.
42:46
Uh, none of them, uh, have historically done well consistently year to year in the tournament, and the way the game's changing recently at a r- more rapid pace, um, especially the last two years.
42:57
I just, it's, uh, you kind of have to trust small, um, inklings of intuition. I mean, the one thing that people have talked about, I think sort of real, is the gap between the haves and the have-nots. Yeah.
43:07
Look at the spreads, uh, ATS trends, the top four seeds against the 13s through 16. Um, I think that's being priced in this year too, so I don't know if that's, there's any meat left on that bone.
43:16
Um, but I think you have to really target some small sample, um, types of edges here, and a lot of those come with scheme and coaching.
43:23
Uh, but again, not a lot of certainty to those edges either, so I can't, doesn't warrant any big bets, uh, at all. Did you fill out a bracket, Matt? Can we get into that? Yeah, still doing that. Okay.
43:32
I know my family and friends are blowing me up with like 20 different bracket re- requests, which I, uh, I hate doing. I should probably get more into bracket strategy, but I will probably go all chalk.
43:41
I was trying to find some good pricing on the, uh, four one seeds to make the Final Four, yes/no. I think there's some big gaps in market out there.
43:49
I, in- intuitively, I think it's a, a yes is gonna be shaded, you know, poor pricing wise, but I do think I will have all four seeds, the one seeds, uh, march on. See, that, that's what I ended up with. So this is...
43:59
I'll just take- Yeah... so that's what I did, and then of course since then I'm hearing all these wacky picks from everybody else, and now I have this deep regret of like, "Am, am I messing up on this?"
44:10
But I feel like, and I know if you listen historically, the only time all four number ones have advanced is last year, and in the year 2008. That's it. That's the list. But I really do.
44:20
I got Duke, Florida, Arizona, and Michigan, and I'm sticking with it. That's what I got. Um, you're the same then.
44:27
I, I am, but I don't feel as confident as I did probably three weeks ago, because you look at some of these ones, Duke, for example, with their injuries. Yeah. Um, a big pat up front, I think that's a huge potential.
44:36
Pete Michigan loses, uh, Cason, who's a really key, you know, point...
44:40
N- not critical pieces, but key depth pieces that over the run of four games, you know, you have to account for maybe there's a game in there, a matchup where they could miss that specific, uh, you know, weapon.
44:50
In Florida, they can't shoot. Maybe they just go ice cold and, you know, they can get every rebound.
44:55
So yeah, there is some risk to some of these top one seeds that, but I still think they're just a, on a different tier than the rest of the- It is-... country right now... it is, feels like that kind of year.
45:04
G- Before you go, let me ask you, uh, this one, which is, I'm, I'm asking, I'm asking of everyone, which is, since 2008, a double digit seed has gotten to the Sweet 16, at least one every single year. Last year- Yep...
45:15
we got real close to not having it, but a 10 seed, Arkansas, did get there. Who's the double digit seed or who are the double digit seeds that get to the Sweet 16 this year? Uh, I like South Florida.
45:27
Um, I think a decent matchup first round against Louisville, and they actually could pose some mis- matchup issues for Michigan State.
45:33
Uh, super athletic, not necessarily tall, but very, um, you know, grizzled, like chiseled, athletic, strong, power conference athlete type dudes. Well-coached.
45:42
Bryan Hodgson, who's gonna probably be at Providence or Syracuse, uh, in a week's time if they don't advance, so really well-coached.
45:48
I think that's a potential mismatch for Harvey, um, in the second turn of the weekend if they can get it done against Louisville. A popular pick. That's a very popular answer. Yeah, popular. I know. Matt, enjoy.
45:59
Appreciate it. I appreciate you. Thanks. Good luck. Thank you. Drew Dincic. NBA, tennis, who knows? Does he fill out a bracket? We'll find out next.
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