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Mar 18, 2025
A Numbers Game | March 18, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | March 18, 2025 | Hour 2
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44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the e-sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 158.
0:16
Gil Alexander to my left, my little buddy Kelly Midland, losing weight like it's going out of style. Yeah. Like it's going, what is it, going out of business? Is that the expression? Going out of business, yeah. Yeah.
0:25
Or, or going out of style. Or going out of style. Both of those, yeah. Either one, either one. How are you do- you losing more? Just ke- keeps going? Yeah, you know, yeah, yeah, yeah. Oh, good for you.
0:31
It's getting tougher and tougher, but, you know, trying to grind away. Good for you.
0:34
Jason Lisk from, uh, Team Rankings and Pool Genius gonna be here a little later to talk, uh, strategery, bracket strategy and stuff, survivor, that kind of thing. Gonna find out what he likes playing best.
0:45
What do you like playing best, Jason Lisk, of all these? Uh, Drew Dinsick standing by as well. Uh, we get tweets that beat in the book. Liam Friend, "Thanks for having Joe Peter back.
0:54
I remember the year Joe Peter was on a Numbers Game and correctly predicted every Major League Baseball playoff series, including the one-game wild cards." Yes, he had a sweep of a postseason.
1:04
Money Capper Letty, "Can you delay Will's sentence for saying at altitude until after the tourney? The people need him." Yes. I don't let people get away with that on the, uh, on the Megapod.
1:14
Chance Copper Pot, "Finally watched We Beat The Dream Team. It was phenomenal. I forget who suggested it on a Numbers Game, but thank you." That was Will who suggested it. That was Will.
1:23
Uh, you guys see the Last Week Tonight thing yet? No, apparently, uh, what's my man's name on Last Week Tonight? John Oliver, I watched it. John Oliver. I watched it yesterday.
1:30
Thank you Chance Copper Pot for pointing it out. I thought it was a pretty well done piece. I, I think it was- You explain to folks what it is...
1:36
I just, just, uh, the, just a vast, I mean, in-depth story, 30-minute-long story, uh, just on sports betting, how it's evolved in the United States, the challenges that both the companies and consumers are- Okay...
1:49
uh, running into. And then, and then, yeah, I mean, most heavily, uh, addressed, I would say, w- is some of the addiction problems and practices and stuff by some of the sports books and companies, so.
2:00
Last Week Tonight, one of the most exhaustively researched shows on television. It's great. I- Yeah... you and I were talking about it yesterday.
2:06
It's one of those shows that, like, when it first started, I watched all the time, never missed an episode, and then it, now it's been on a while, and you just kind of forget- Yeah... when it's on, off.
2:15
Well, it's a bit of a commitment. Like, you c- Yeah... you have, it- it's sort of a, you have to be engaged. Yeah, I mean, in this specific- Yeah... this was a 30-minute-long piece they did on sports betting.
2:24
Uh, last night, NBA real quick, uh, Warriors lose only their third game since Jimmy Butler has arrived, only their second game since he was actually in the lineup. They fall to 14 and 3 since the Jimmy Butler trade.
2:36
They lose to the, uh, the Nuggets, who didn't have Jokic, Jamal or Brown in their lineup. J- just a great example. We've talked about this with Carl Sack yesterday, Gil. Terrible bet, gets home. Terrible bet gets home.
2:49
Just happens. Terrible bet. Steph- We talked about that process of betting the Nuggets when all those guys were questionable. Steph looks tired, by the way. He looks tired. And Steve Kerr- Literally said that, yes...
2:58
yeah, he looks tired. Um, then the- Let's go Bucs... then the Rockets come back. Did you see the Rockets come back yesterday? [laughs] I, I was out at dinner. You texted me- Yeah... about this this morning.
3:06
I didn't realize it was that, uh, crazy. I saw it went to overtime. They were trailing the Sixers by 25 in the third quarter. They caught up by the end of the quarter.
3:16
Then they fell back down double digits by, back down 10 points I think it was. They were down eight in the last minute, tied it, never led once in regulation, won it in overtime.
3:28
Which is just shocking because the 76ers all season long have just been putting teams away once they get up, up on top of them, okay?
3:35
Uh, and then the other thing, I don't know, did you see this, this, uh, at the Knicks-Heat game yesterday, Tracy Morgan had a medical emergency? No, you told me that this morning.
3:42
That's, uh, I, I, that was- Pictures- I saw it on Twitter. I, I don't know. That's kind of concerning. Oh my God, these pictures of him, like mid-vomit. Uh, yeah. Yeah, just vomiting, nosebleed. Not good.
3:52
Hope everything's okay with him. Drew Dinsick, who likes himself some NBA and some tennis, joins us right now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
3:59
You can follow him on Twitter at whale_capper, the host of both the Deep Dive and Bet The Edge podcast at NBC Sports, who now has a, uh, has another thing that we want to, uh, talk about as well.
4:11
What are you doing every morning now, Drew? [laughs] We're doing the Deep Dive daily. Uh, basically just, uh, uh, shooting the, uh, shooting it with, uh, Andy [laughs] for, uh, for 15, 20 minutes in the morning.
4:25
Um, it's kind of a good opportunity. Um, you know, you, you, you mentioned, you know, I like the NBA. Um, the quality hasn't been great lately.
4:34
Uh, some of the, uh, you know, some of the experiences where, you know, you bet the, the Timberwolves minus four, they close minus 10 and a half, and then they can't stop Obi Toppin.
4:45
Um, you know, it, it tests your patience with the association, and you know what's nice? It's nice having a little daily opportunity to, uh, to vent [laughs] about
4:55
w- what, what, when we are in the stupidest time of the year for one of the stupider seasons that I can remember, uh, for the association.
5:02
It's nice to, nice to vent a little bit, and, uh, that was kind of, that was kind of a nice, uh, nice opportunity for me today. What was it, uh, specifically last night that got your goat? Uh, well, you know, um,
5:15
the Warriors, like,
5:17
similarly, like getting six, getting six and a half points of CLV and not feeling good about it as the game tips and then immediately just being like annoyed by everything that you're seeing is, is, is pr- is pretty tough.
5:30
Um, and, uh, that happened to me twice yesterday.
5:32
And, um, uh, also, you know, you know, betting on a team when you don't really like them that much and you're disappointed with their effort recently and they, they give you a good first half effort like the Miami Heat do, and then they come out for the third quarter and they don't play, uh, and they lose 41-15, um, you know, those types of swings are, uh, are, are brutal.
5:52
Do we have- And, um- Let me interrupt for one second. Yeah. Do we have that Miami Heat stat from the fourth quarter?
5:57
Just from what I can remember, Tim Bond saying on, uh, the Hoop Collective the other day, and it's their net rating. Like, ch- I'll pull it up. But Drew, you, have you seen this at all? Yes.
6:04
Their fourth quarter net rating, and it's like minus 28 or some absurd number, uh, for what they're doing in the fourth quarter. It, it's wild, so.
6:13
I, I know there's been a lot of people betting them, like, first half, doing the whole, like- Yeah... one team first half, the other team full game. And it- Like the White Sox bet? Yeah, and it's been working out. Yeah.
6:22
Yeah. Yeah. You know, the, if we, if this was blind resume season and you put up a, a blind resume of the Heat with their fourth quarter numbers, you know what I would say? They're magnificent job taking.
6:34
[laughs] What in the world is going on? Like, you almost have to try to be playing this poorly at late in games as they are. It's absolutely wild.
6:42
And, um, yeah, I mean, the Heat, uh, are, they, you know, they're, they're tacking hard for the 9-10 plan, um, and out of the playoff mix entirely, which, okay, good luck.
6:53
Um, and yeah, the rest, the rest of the NBA is wild, too, because, like, at, y- you know, with the closing lines yesterday, and though, especially in the West, you're like, "Okay, well, like, here we go."
7:04
Like, seeds two through seven in the West pr- as of yesterday before the game started were, um, you know, were only separated by about one and a half games, which is unbelievable.
7:16
Like, it makes pricing futures virtually impossible because everybody in the West has, like, specific, um, matchup problems with some opponents, right? Like, if the Nuggets draw the Timberwolves, like, look out.
7:29
Like, Nuggets are in trouble. If the Nuggets draw the Warriors, then they're probably fine. [laughs] Like, like, the, you know, if the Nuggets draw the Lakers, they're probably fine.
7:37
If the Lakers draw, uh, you know, the Warriors, they're, they're, they're probably fine, right, right? Like, if the Wa- Lakers draw the Grizzlies, they might be fine, right?
7:45
Like, th- there's a bunch of, like, specific head-to-heads where you're feeling relative high confidence based on just sort of matchup particularities.
7:55
Um, and we have no idea how the, how this is gonna shake out right now. Like, I'm holding an uncomfortably large bet on the, uh, or the Oklahoma City Thunder to win the West. Me.
8:06
And, like, you wake up one day and you're like, "Oh, man." Like, their half of the draw could be Grizzlies, Rockets, Kings. Like, yes. Like, heck yes.
8:17
Like, two, three, six, and seven could be all the teams I don't really wanna play. Like, you're only gonna have to play one of those? Like, that's awesome. And then you wake up the next day and you're like, "Oh, great.
8:27
Like, we're gonna get the Warriors in the 1-8? Like, ugh, come on. Like, this can't be happening."
8:32
Um, and then, yeah, so, like, there's a path where they go Warriors, uh, in the eighth seed, uh, you know, Timberwolves in the, uh, in the fourth, you know, the winner of the four or five, and then Nuggets as the, you know, the winner of the two seed.
8:45
And, like, that, that price is out still as slight edge for me, uh, over current West f- you know, that's, like, the worst possible, and that's a slight edge for me over the West, uh, futures price right now.
8:56
But then the other world where they play Kings, Grizzlies, uh, you know, Lakers or something like that, like that's, you know, they should be, like, minus 300.
9:04
What's the, uh, what are the potential, and this I'll say for the whole NBA, but it feels like it's more of a Western Conference question ba- sort of based on what you just said.
9:12
What are the series matchups that you would anticipate, that you would look most forward to as being completely mispriced by the market- Yeah...
9:21
where you are like, "This is so exploit- I can exploit the heck out of this"? Um, Timberwolves-Lakers would be a great one. Uh- Because the market will love the Lakers, but you won't. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
9:36
That, if the Lakers-Timberwolves is four or five, I'm gonna be pretty stoked, especially if the Timberwolves are the four. Uh, I don't know if that's very likely, but that would be, that would be pretty cool.
9:46
Um, the one I'm least looking forward to is easier. [laughs] Grizzlies-Lakers. [laughs] I do not wanna see this series again, no way, no how.
9:55
Um, my numbers are gonna say bet the Grizzlies even as, as unimpressive as they've been in the absence of JJJ.
10:00
This, it's still, the Grizzlies are a more complete, better team than the Lakers, but the Lakers are gonna be favored in that series I would guess, and, um, probably gonna have to go to war with the Grizzlies and feel very uncomfortable about it as Ja Morant goes flying up to the rim in game one and breaks his wrist again.
10:15
But, um- [laughs]... you know, the, the, the Warriors-Nuggets is a fun one because, kinda based on last night when it was kind of, it was expected at least that, uh, um, Jokic was gonna play.
10:27
The market price was basically telling you that the Warriors might be pretty compellingly priced similarly to the Nuggets in that series.
10:35
And I don't know, man, like, there's, the Warriors do not have an answer for a lot of what the Nuggets like to do.
10:41
Um, and I don't know how much, how many more matchups we need to see between those two teams to kinda just say, "Well, this is just, they don't have it. Like, they don't have it solved."
10:49
Um, and, you know, so I think that, that's an interesting one where I would probably lean favorite Nuggets if they draw the Warriors in three-six.
10:57
I'm gonna give you my most concerning Western Conference, uh, situations as I, I, I heavily staked on the Thunder with you, Drew, so we, we'll be, uh, riding that.
11:05
I'm terrified of the Thunder seeing Luka Doncic just at any point- Sure... 'cause, like, there's still lingering, like, that, uh, you know, lingering stuff from last year with that.
11:13
And then I'm really looking forward to Jimmy Butler costing me a lot of money again, uh- Oh, yeah... this off-season. It will happen. Yep. I'm just keeping my mouth shut about that.
11:19
Yep, yeah, it'll probably happen, Gil- [laughs]... 'cause I, I think I'm aligned with Drew on most of those matchups. Yeah.
11:23
We need, we need Nuggets to take care of the Warriors in the three-six, to take care of Luka in the two-three, and then the Thunder have the Nuggets dead to rights.
11:32
If, if Jimmy Butler does this to, to you specifically, but all- [laughs]... but a lot of NBA hardos again, I will have much to say. Oh, man.
11:41
Because that, that'll go, that'll play into my theory that you're too close to the sun watching the entire regular season. [laughs] Yeah. Um, more with Drew. Let's see if he's got some Miami Open thoughts and beyond.
11:50
Let's see if that means college basketball next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. We mentioned this at the top of the show. It bears repeating again.
12:03
Our March Mania betting guide is out. March Mania betting guide, Adam Burke deserving, uh, most of the kudos, but, uh, so many working on this.
12:12
Profiles of every NCAA tournament team, trends for every round, strategies for brackets and futures. Comprehensive guide packed with team profiles for every squad in the field, every one of them.
12:24
Key trends, expert strategies for building your brackets, betting futures, and of course, best bets from VSiN's top analysts. Start your VSiN Pro subscription today for just $9.99.
12:32
Get instant access to the guide, plus daily best bets, 24/7 video, and our exclusive betting splits throughout the tournament. Sign up today VSiN.com/subscribe. That's VSiN.com/subscribe.
12:44
Everybody's final four picks in there. You got your final four in there? I do. I'm noticing Cooper Flagg is sweating quite a lot on this, uh, in this graphic.
12:52
It's, uh, it's really, uh, really not, uh, nice of him to sweat that much all over the other players there. [laughs] Um, check it out though, only $9.99 for your first 30 days, and you get the guide.
13:01
Who wouldn't do that? Drew Dincic joins us once again, um, from the Progressive guest line. Again, a whale_capper. Deep Dive podcast, Deep Dive daily with Andy Molitor. You gotta add that to the mix.
13:14
And of course, uh, Bet the Edge, uh, with Jay Croucher as well. This, by the way, this was the Miami Heat thing that we were talking about. This is, uh, this is their, uh, net rating. It's the last 15 games, yeah.
13:24
Last 15 games net rating. Is that good? Oh my God, is that bad. Not great, Bob. Heat, minus 27.6 [laughs] net rating. They're in the Brooklyn Nets sphere of the world. Yeah, that is.
13:38
Uh, it's always interesting to pull up stuff like this 'cause you get- What about the C- what about the Celtics? That's kind of surprising. Well, so you get-- That's actual tanking.
13:43
I would, I'm just gonna assume that's- Yeah... Celtics just blowing out teams, so it doesn't really matter- Right... in the fourth quarter as much, right? Sure. Yeah. It's interesting. Um, we get tweets, by the way.
13:54
Just wanna read a couple. 15 games. Be careful, people. Don't go, don't go crazy [laughs] like... I know we had that White Sox one last summer that was great, but- Yeah... you know.
14:03
The, the, the, the, yeah, the five inning full game thing- Yeah... with the White Sox was unbelievable.
14:07
Um, I would love to hear, this is Duck Fan for Life, "I would love to hear Gil's and Drew's thoughts on whether they think Amira Andrejiva is for real." Oh, [laughs] is she ever. She's coming for the throne for real.
14:18
She wins at Indian Wells.
14:20
Uh, she has the same four victories down the stretch, meaning round of 16, quarterfinals, semifinals, finals, as did Madison Keys at the Australian Open, which is to say Rybakina in the round of 16, Svitolina in the quarters, Iga in the semis, and then Sabalenka in the finals.
14:39
Drew, Drew and I were talking about Andrejiva a couple years ago, weren't we, Drew, on the Megapod? No, we don't think- Man, she could be world number one someday. Turns out someday is maybe this week or this year.
14:52
[laughs] Like, what? Holy smokes. Um, the, uh, is she for real? Absolutely. You're referencing her, um, her run and the parallels to the Madison Keys. Beyond just being really kind of weird, I would say that her- Mm...
15:09
actual performance was more impressive than Keys. I mean, the Keys, obviously that comes on a Grand S- you know, a, a Grand Slam stage. So there is that. But, um, her u- utter destruction of Rybakina was eye-opening.
15:25
Um, Svitolina was a warm-up for the Iga test. The surface favored Iga more so than Melbourne.
15:32
Like this is, this is, this, th- she was absolutely in, um, you know, Iga's kind of sweet spot as far as a hard court's, you know, court speed.
15:42
And then Sabalenka was much more in form in this tournament than what we've seen from her so far this year. And so the fact that she got those, particularly those last two wins, was absolutely incredible.
15:52
And if you watch much of the Sabalenka match, or the Iga match for that matter, the shot-making was, like, absurd. Absurd. She is doing this forehand slice that is absolutely diabolical.
16:04
Um, it is kind of the perfect weapon for players like Sabalenka, uh, in terms of making them uncomfortable with the, you know, moving around the court.
16:13
And, uh, you know, the, the fact that she could go to toe to toe in rallies with Iga and find ways to get, uh, clean winners, or her backhand was magnificent.
16:22
Um, you know, it, it, it is, uh, it is absolutely, uh, awesome when this sort of thing happens.
16:28
And, um, it's rare, but it just happened with Alcaraz and then to a lesser extent with Sinner, where, you know, when you have a breakout like this, you, we don't know what the ceiling is for her.
16:41
This time next year she could be the clear number one in the world with margin. Yep. Just because she's not even 18. She's getting better at this.
16:50
It's like she's learning more, uh, you know, she adding more tools to her tool, tool chest, and she's well-coached. She seems to be coachable. Um, and you know, I think, uh, you know, sh- she's also still growing.
17:03
Like, she's huge now. [laughs] Like, she continues to get even bigger, which is a problem for everybody else on tour.
17:10
Um, yeah, I mean, I think, uh, if you don't have her kind of current f- you know, form rated in, in or around the top of the women's tour, then you've made a huge mistake.
17:19
Um, and, uh, yeah, I'm kinda surprised that she's this price for Miami, but going back to back to back would be pretty amazing. And, um, and you know, she's gonna have another tough test here.
17:30
It is, it, it's fascinating to watch, and she's playing loose, and that's the reminder, right? The reminder is- Sure... on the come-up, you're not in your head. You're not being chased. Right.
17:40
And it reminds you of the Iga rise, where it's like, oh, you play free. You're not thinking about anything. So we'll see.
17:46
We'll see what the, uh, what the ceiling is, if, if the, if a ceiling could even be seen in the next several years with her. Exactly.
17:54
And, um, you know, I think, uh, the, the prices that existed for her to win the three sl- remaining Slams this year before she won Indian Wells have been absolutely annihilated. [laughs] They're c- slashed correctly.
18:08
Um, you know, there is a, there is a world we wake up in July and we're like, you know, you know, we have, we, we've, we've previewed w- women's Wimbledon.
18:18
We've talked about Mirra Andreeva's played, like, seven matches in her life on grass, and then we see her perform, like, two rounds at Wimbledon. We're like, "Oh, actually she's the best women's grass player now."
18:28
[laughs] Surprise. Like, that's, that, that's the way these things happen, and that's the way they go, and you have to kind of prey on those sort of tail outcomes that she continues to improve and get better.
18:38
And you know, just again, from what I'm, from what I can tell, and just her style of play and her kind of youth and just, you know, and just general physicality, like, it doesn't look to me like she's gonna bear the cost of, like, fatigue, which ha- does Generally cause a lot of younger players to, um, kind of underwhelm when you get later in the season after, you know, they're kind of going through the first year full grind, you know, playing 20 tournaments.
19:04
You d- you didn't bet her in Miami, though. She's in a ridiculously tough quarter.
19:09
Yeah, I've- the whole, I mean, the whole women's draw in Miami is tough, and the vibe you get is because so many of those ma- you know, the, the, the end of Indian Wells is compressed in terms of, like, the high leverage tennis, which usually means that, like, getting back up for, um, you know, another high leverage tourna- you know, tournament is very, very difficult.
19:28
Uh, and I would be surprised if, um, uh... You know, I, this, this doesn't feel like s- mega chalk out at the top, right?
19:37
This feels like something like Pegula comes through at, at a monster price or Zheng Qinwen comes through at a monster price.
19:43
Um, those w- at right now at 28 to one for Pegula and 35 to one for Zheng, those, that would be where I would be looking. I went Osaka 66 to one. A lot of ifs there. That's another, that's another good one. Yeah.
19:53
You know, she's, she's a, she's much fresher than a number of these women, if she can- Mm-hmm... and honestly, like, she's always played better in Miami than at any of the other thousands.
20:02
I have to, I have to end the tennis by saying, and if Iga wins the French, she'll have six majors, and Serena will have seven at that same time.
20:08
[laughs] Because Iga still has the best numbers, not only on clay, but on hards. [laughs] So everybody relax. It's still Iga. I get Andreeva. Andreeva's your second choice, though, pretty clearly. Yeah. No, that's true.
20:18
That's true. Um, okay. College hoops. Do you do any brackets or survivor or Calcutta or anything? Yeah, all of the above, man. All of the above.
20:27
You s- you, you, you tapped me into one of the most fun survivor pools on earth- That's right... for, uh, I don't, we won't, we won't give away the ghost here.
20:34
But, uh, yeah, the, the, um, the, uh, the survivor is, is super fun. Definitely bracket pools with friends and family on top of, you know, some, some higher, higher stakes one. I'm out on Calcuttas this year.
20:46
Um, last year was such a negative experience for me. I just need a, need a year off to, to rethink my strategy there.
20:52
Um, and, uh, and I would say, though, just broadly, like, the t- the tournament kind of lacking a little juice for me this year. I don't know. Why, why do you say that? 'Cause, like, Duke's just gonna win. Duke's who?
21:05
Oh, 'cause he bets [laughs] with Drew. Wait, I forgot. [laughs] I forgot who I was talking to. Duke. Yeah. Has to run this Duke athletics bet.
21:12
Duke is not, is not really- For like a- It's like there's, there's no drama, guys, right? For like a second and a half I was like- [laughs]... why does he, why is he so sure ab- oh, yeah.
21:18
You, you know what my first thought was actually, was like, oh, Cooper Flagg, NBA, NBA guy. Oh, no. But no, Duke. I forgot about Duke legendary swimmer Drew Dincic.
21:26
Drew, [laughs] legendary swimmer Drew Dincic at Duke University. You don't wanna see him in the 400-meter fly. Um, no you don't. Uh, you would l- you, yeah, 400-meter fly, I would be, uh, I would be in deep trouble.
21:37
Uh, butterfly was not my, not my strength, but, uh, that's okay. Mm. So- Just trying to guess. Okay. [laughs] Just took a shot at it. Um, what is, what is the most fun for you? Survivor, though? It's gotta be, right?
21:48
Uh, definitely, yeah. That's- Yeah... I, because there's the most game theory involved, right?
21:52
And I, I mean, like, the, the, if you're, if you're c- if y- I'm curious to hear what your, your future guests have to say about game theory for brackets this year in particular, but, like, it does feel extremely chalky this year.
22:02
I feel like if you're winning a bracket pool, you either have to be the rightest on a chalky year, or you have to be sort of, you know, kind of nail some of the contrarian stuff because, um, yeah, the way, it's very balanced this year.
22:15
There's just, there's not a lot of obvious sort of game theory ways to take advantage of the way they put together this bracket this year.
22:21
So, um, yeah, no, Survivor is much more, much more, uh, you know, kind of game theory- Yeah... applicable this year, I think.
22:28
A lot of the, uh, the mega pod with Todd yesterday and Will was Todd complaining about all the teams that he likes end up playing the teams that he likes in the first round. So makes it a little more complicated.
22:38
Drew, thank you as always, man. Appreciate it. Best of luck. Have fun this week, guys. Drew Dincic with the Deep Dive Daily every day with Andy Molitor at whale_capper.
22:47
Jason Lisk from Team Rankings Bracket Strategy next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Eliminate all the fake handicappers who are pitching fake records.
22:59
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23:29
Download Juice Reel today. Let's get Alexander Kelly Bidlin alongside. Let's talk some, uh, bracket strategy. It's our old friend Jason Lisk joining us from both Team Rankings.
23:38
He's the, uh, content analysis, um, he does content analysis for Team Rankings. He also, uh, works over there at Pool Genius. You can follow him on Twitter at Jason Lisk. That's L-I-S-K.
23:48
Joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Good morning to you, Jason. How you doing? I'm doing great. Excited.
23:54
We get to, we get NIT action and, and play-in action tonight, so basketball's back after a one-day hiatus. Do you bet the NIT voraciously?
24:03
I, I, I actually, not vor- not, not vociferously, but I did actually sit up and handicap it last night because I just can't help it. And so I did, uh- [laughs] Can't help it... put a few recommendations out. Okay.
24:16
Um, care to share one of those with us by any chance? Do you have one? Uh, yeah. Loyola Chicago's been a team I was backing through the A10. They were covering much better with their current lineup.
24:26
Uh, I'm looking for teams that play, uh, their ro- their rotations are vastly different than earlier in the year, and there's value on the current rotation 'cause people price these on the full season numbers.
24:36
So Loyola is one. Now, obviously they're traveling to San Jose State, and so that's a l- a longer trip. But I think even with building a large home court advantage, there's, uh, this, this Loyola team's closer to-
24:51
A 12 or 13 seed quality could have been, you know, they almost beat VCU if they could have hit any layups, and, uh, I think they're, they're a, a solid value in that tournament. There you go.
25:02
Bonus NIT pick from Jason as well. There we go. I like it. All right, so sort this out for us, Team Rankings, Pool Genius.
25:07
Uh, by the way, Team Rankings, uh, wrote a, uh, post in the, uh, college basketball, in our college basketball betting guide, um, which is out now, um, so we're pumped about that.
25:16
But tell us what Team Rankings is known for at this time of year and what Pool Genius is known for.
25:22
Yeah, so, so our, our, our site Pool Genius is where we host all our, our pool subscriptions, and that includes bracket picks. That includes survivor picks for March Madness.
25:32
Uh, we have subscription packages for all those things, and, and Veesun listeners can, can get discounts on those by going to poolgenius.com/vesun and checking it out. But yeah, we have Calcutta.
25:43
I know a lot of Calcutta auctions have already taken place, but we have tools related to that. Bracket picks, women's brackets this year if you pl- if you dabble in that. Ooh. We've got all sorts of tools. Nice.
25:53
Um, okay, so again, for the Pool Genius, not to enter, this is to get advice on your brackets- Yep... and your survivor picks, and Calcutta as well. Um, what do you personally like to, to play most?
26:05
Brackets, i- uh, upset rewarded brackets, survivor? What's your favorite thing? Uh, some of my favorite things are, like, the pick X where you...
26:13
Like, seed-based contests where you get points for, like, the seed number, 'cause they lead to some really wild, like, strategies.
26:23
Like, 'cause if you get a bunch of points for every time an eight seed wins or an 11 seed wins, those are high variance events right away.
26:29
Like, they're not fa- they may not be favored, but if you hit them, uh, the, the, that's who wins those pools.
26:35
And so the year, like, I had Loyola Chicago back in '19 and I w- or '18 and, and won a pool because I had Loyola Chicago [laughs] the Final Four, and I got so many points.
26:43
So I love those kind of pools 'cause they're strategy. Like, you don't wanna block your picks. You wanna have, like, you wanna play upside. Uh, so those are some of my favorite.
26:52
Survivor pools are, like, great for, like, if you love to, to play against the high leverage events, pick upsets in the Sweet 16, Elite Eight, where half the crowd's on the other side, and you, and the pool gets wiped out, survivor pools are a fun thing to do for that.
27:08
Let's start with the more standard pools, but w- let's, let's put a bookmark in survivor 'cause I wanna get to that, but let's start with the more standard pools.
27:15
So yesterday I was on the show, and I'm curious if, if there's a more macro thing than this. Um- Yeah... for the standard, you know, two, four, six, eight, 10, or two, four, eight, 16.
27:24
In other words, you get more points- Mm-hmm... as you advance. Not an upset rewarded pool. Yep. Uh, the smaller- Yep... the pool, the more conservative. The larger the pool, the more sort of frisky you should get, yes?
27:35
Yes, generally speaking, that's right. Generally speaking, the smaller the pool, the more conservative. Obviously you wanna know the crowd you're playing with if you've played in the pool before.
27:43
You wanna know how they pick and think about that, um, and how they might play it. But yeah, generally speaking, smaller the pool, and not just pool size by the way.
27:52
We, we think of effective pool size or pot, kind of your odds of getting a prize, right?
27:57
'Cause you may be in a pool that has a flat payout structure, so you might wanna play it more conservatively to place in the money and not go all out on a risky champ pick, even if it's 100 people, 200 people.
28:08
Um, so think about not only pool size but, but, but po- uh, prize structure. Um, and then I would say generally yes. There are some exceptions. Like, if you can catch a team that you pick to the final against a...
28:23
This is just a strategy point.
28:25
If you take, like, a team like Duke or Florida, and you compare them in certain size pools with a team you think might not even be picked as a champion 'cause the pool's not large enough, let's say 20, 30 people, and, and you don't think
28:39
5, 10% are gonna pick that team, uh, to reach, to win the championship, then just having them in the final gives you leverage, and you almost get, like, two champ picks.
28:48
'Cause if they reach the final, nobody has them going further. And so that's a, that's another strategy that does come up, but generally speaking, you wanna be conservative. Is there an optimal, optimal percentage?
28:58
Let's say there's 100 people in a pool. Is there an optimal percentage of entries you should have that's, like, the strike point that you think is, is the best? I mean, you wanna ha- a- any entry keeps you alive.
29:10
Um, I would not probably play above 3 to 5% of the total pool size 'cause I want most of the money to not be mine, if that makes sense. Makes total sense. Like, you wanna, you wanna have- Yeah...
29:20
everybody ki- kicking in.
29:22
And so a three to five i, in small pools, I mean, larger obviously you're not gonna even go get there 'cause you- it's probably so many entries that it would be, uh, cost prohibitive or just wouldn't have time [laughs] to go through them all.
29:32
But yeah, I would, I would limit it to 3 to 5% on a pool under 100 entries. I wouldn't wanna have more than, say, one entry in a 20 entry pool.
29:39
And then upset rewarded pools, which you described, again, if you pick a 13 over- Mm-hmm... a four, you get the extra nine points. If you pick a 12 over a five- Yep... 12 minus five, you get the extra seven.
29:48
You should be, if you're, if you're in those, first of all, you should know that rule. That's the ver- very first thing you should know. Yes. You should be going- Yeah...
29:54
pretty crazy betting the, or, or picking these, right? Because being wrong isn't what you should care about, right? You should expect to be wrong about a bunch. Yeah, uh, yeah. You're not, you're not...
30:06
Your goal is not to maximize how many wins you get. It's to how many points you get, and so you gotta think of it that way.
30:12
Now a lot of times we'll see in wha- in those kind of pools you're talking about, you still wanna have a champ pick that is highly likely to happen, right?
30:19
You wanna have, say, your fi- your champ and your final B teams that are, that give you the best chance of getting 32 points or whatever, but then in the early rounds, you're knocking out the teams that you aren't picking to, as the champion more.
30:32
You're taking those 12s and 11s on a deep run in a bracket where you don't have that high seed going far anyway. And so that's how you should think about it is get your champ picks.
30:43
You still need to get those points probably to win that pool, but you need to then rack up points on big upsets- Was there any-... and big runs...
30:50
was there anything, Jason, about the way that this particular bracket shook out on Selection Sunday that has led to a specific thought or strategy? Um, it,
31:06
I, I think generally speaking the one seeds are, are really strong. And so I'm hesitant until I get to large pool sides to take deep runs by anybody else.
31:15
Um, I'm p- you're probably thinking more conservative, but there are some things you can mix in. Um, I'm watching the, the situations like Alabama.
31:24
I'm watching situations like Iowa State, like, 'cause those are teams you could take to the Elite Eight, but do you? Uh, 'cause those may matter.
31:33
And if, if it is chalky this year, then you're probably gonna have to hit some of those Elite Eight picks too to win. Mm-hmm. And so, you know, keep an eye on those.
31:40
Th- uh, that's what I'm thinking is I'm not concerned about, like, the upset picks. I'm conc- or, like, the, the, the long shot picks to beat me.
31:48
I'm concerned about the teams like whether I have an Alabama or not, and get that right. Yeah, referring to KeShawn Gilbert's injury with Iowa State and Grant Nelson's with, uh, Alabama.
31:57
To survivor real quick here, um, the, I, I love survivor more than anything. I've described it. It's multidimensional. You can lose at the front end- Mm-hmm... by just getting knocked out.
32:05
You can lose at the back end by not- Yes... having teams left. Um, isn't, uh, I like to make this point about survivor that I think doesn't get said enough, which is the schedule, right? Thursday, Friday- Yep...
32:16
Saturday, Sunday.
32:17
When it goes to the next week, isn't it true that most survivor players make the mistake of, oh, well, the Thursdays and the Saturdays must play on the Thursdays and Saturdays Sweet 16 week, and you've gotta be aware- Yeah...
32:30
of that? Absolutely. I'm gonna lay that out for our subscribers in an article, uh, by tonight where I lay out the schedule grid. But yeah, you gotta not only think about risk now, you gotta think about combos.
32:42
'Cause if you show up to a Sweet 16 or a region and you've used both teams that match up in the Sweet 16, you're pretty much done. Yeah. Right?
32:49
'Cause, 'cause you can't pick either of those teams there or in the Elite Eight, and so you're, you're kind of screwed.
32:55
So your, your ideal is to have either of the teams you pick in the first round lose right away, or only one still alive in a region when you show up to the Sweet 16, and so you gotta think about it that way.
33:04
Jason, I really appreciate it. Give us the, uh, Pool Genius discount URL again, if you would. Yeah. Poolgenius.com/veson for discounts. Check it out.
33:15
And again, bracket picks, survivor picks, all that stuff, check us out. Lots of, uh, content going up today. See, if you wanna game the game, if you're in a pool, Jason will hook you up. That's right.
33:24
All the Pool Genius people will help you along. Uh, thank you so much, Jason. Always great to see you, man. Yep. Thanks so much for having me on. Jason Lisk, everybody, from Team Rankings and Pool Genius.
33:34
Follow him on Twitter at Jason Lisk, L-I-S-K. Kelly and I on the other side wrapping things up on The Numbers Game with Veeson, the sports betting network.
33:42
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on Veeson, the sports betting network.
33:55
Back on The Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas, majestic downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, sharp week. See the shark bites and everything? That's right. The sharp bites.
34:07
Uh, we get tweets at Beat the Book. Can I, uh, go through those first? Is that allowed? The show. A little audible. First of all, did you and Dave Ross have some kind of a climate control, uh, argument in here?
34:15
What are these tweets I'm seeing from Tronsky? Uh, Da- Dave always likes to sit in, like, 64 degrees in here, and it's, uh... I love Dave.
34:22
It's nothing, it's nothing, uh, intentioned or anything, but I like giving him crap about why, why is he sitting in a, in an ice box for three hours. [laughs] Remember the- He's also got a jacket on, though.
34:32
We come, and we're not wearing jackets... at South Point, they used to try to smoke us out of there, was it so humid sometimes? There was that- The sweat... then liter- lit- the literal smoke.
34:39
Remember we'd get like- Oh, yeah... they'd, like, overcook the burgers, and, uh, what was that, what was the, the burger place called? Wow, I'm blanking on it. No, not, no, no Ortega not Del Mar Deli.
34:49
What's the burger place that was right behind the studio? Shake Shack. No, it wasn't even Shake Shack. Uh- Oh, I don't know what you're talking about... Steak and Shake. Oh, Steak and Shake.
34:57
That's right, Steak and Shake. Brian Ortega, unsolicited in your ear. [laughs] Typing away here- Jeff Cam-... with multiple wrong answers.
35:03
[laughs] Jeff Cam, uh, on Twitter, "Looking forward to the mega pod as I do spring cleaning later. Kelly, I missed the name of the show that you were talking about sports betting. Could you mention once more please?"
35:13
Um, last- No, last week tonight... last week tonight- With John Oliver... on HBO, on Max with John Oliver. Jordan Pagel, "Did Will mention if he bet San Diego to make the Final Four?" Talking about UCSD.
35:23
Uh, "Found an 80 to 1 at a faraway place." Well, he should, if that's what he, his conviction is. He should as well. He did not mention, though, specifically that he did. Uh, this is from, let's see.
35:32
He said he was going to, though.
35:34
Uh, Tom F, T4Three, he had tweeted a, a while back, I think it was a couple weeks ago, about, uh, or not even a couple weeks, one week ago, about Mirra Andreeva's slam futures, 22 to 1 to win the US Open. He grabbed it.
35:47
Uh, that is not out there anymore. He said, "This is aging well. Now I just wish I took her at Wimbledon, too." Listen, she's great. She's 17 years old.
35:54
We've been talking about her on the, uh, podcast for at least a year, maybe two. Um, remember JBT bet Erika Andreeva that morning? [laughs] Ladies and- I was like, "That's not even the good sister."
36:04
Um- Well, how old's Erika? Erika's old. Erika is older than Andreeva, yeah. So but she has to be, right? Yeah, Erika's older, but Erika is, I mean, she's good. She's just not Mirra good.
36:15
I mean, if there was, like, multiple teenagers from the same family, uh, doing things on tour, that'd be pretty damn impressive. Erika's 20. She's 20. Mirra's 17. But again, right, like, she's great, but
36:30
we'll see, 'cause there's a ceiling, right? There's, she's, she's on the way up, and it's, you know, Iga was saying, she's like, "Man, it's so great. She was better in the clutch points. She plays loose.
36:39
I w- you know, she longs to be back there," 'cause she's always in her head messing, messing up in the clutch. But, um, you know, we'll see. We'll see what happens here moving forward.
36:48
I'm gonna take that as Gil's not, uh, not as high- No, I am-... on Andreeva as-... I am every bit as high.
36:53
She's outstanding, but I'm just s- I'm secretly smiling at everybody out there who's taking shots at the real queen, and I'm like, "Okay, if she w- if, if Iga wins the French, she's got six slams."
37:06
I'm like, "What are, what are y'all talking about?" That's all, that's all I'm gonna say. Uh, Joe Pita, thank you. Oh, uh, he says, "Ah, the memories of the perfect bracket in 2016," responding to the earlier, uh, tweet.
37:16
He says, "I should have walked away from the game like Jim Brown after that World Series."
37:21
Uh, Jesse Welch, "Since, uh, Adam Burke and the betting guide are getting so much love, let's add on the fact that Burkey put out the MLB guide and March Madness guides back to back."
37:29
Oh, yeah, well, that's, I, I mentioned that about the MLB guide, that that was his true, amazing calling, but this is, uh, as good. Uh, Brandon Pierce, Brandon Priest, sorry about that.
37:39
He says, "Talking contests, my favorite by far, 20 people in a pool, all one to 15 seeds dropped into a hat, and each person pulls three teams out of a hat.
37:47
If you're holding a team that wins it all, you win half the pot. Other half the pot goes to the person who accumulates the most points." Oh, that's a simple one. Everybody's got a, uh, an angle on this. Mm-hmm.
37:56
Uh, New York Mess 16, "S- uh, Pool Genius is a great tool. I used it for the NFL season, where I have weekly and season payouts. They customize to both, uh, and you decide the route you wanna take.
38:06
I had my best season yet and won weekly three times." There's a shout-out to Jason Lisk. Nice. That's awesome, yeah. Um, and, uh, let's see. Oh, James Scott's coming by to visit us after the show.
38:15
He said he had to listen to Drew before he left the house to come in. [laughs] Cool. One of our sponsors. Now, uh, Pool Genius is awesome.
38:21
This is always one of those, like, I'm sure you have specific websites you go to for, like, small tools, right?
38:27
And I always feel bad where I'm like, like, y- Team Rankings, they do so much on that site, such a great website.
38:33
But one, I always go there for one specific thing, Gil, and it's always to check out, I think they do the best job laying out kind of the ATS records and then the ATS plus minus, you know, how much you're exceeding the spread by or so- Mm-hmm...
38:46
you know, when we talk NFL, NBA. There's always, like, it is, it is bookmarked on my computer. You know what's so funny? There's sites that we, we all do that for, like, one specific matter. Right, right.
38:55
Remember when we had, who was it that we had on from Our Lads? Do you remember that? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. And I said to him, I go, "Can you guess what it is that I use your website for?"
39:04
And he goes, without, before I could even finish the sentence, he goes, "Oh, you do it for my depth charts." I'm like, "Exactly." Yeah, [laughs] that's what I like to see. Every time I go to Our Lads for depth charts.
39:12
Um- Good call. This is the same exact thing. I'm like, "Should I bring this up to Jason? I don't know if I should bring this up or not," 'cause there's a lot more on their website than just that.
39:19
Paper Mike points this out, too. He goes, "I remember this one. I kept live betting Mira versus her sister Erika, and I got my bankroll cleaned out. She got smoked by her sister."
39:27
[laughs] It's always a weird Venus, Serena thing happening, too, uh, back in the day. Um, time for our G-Bank Best Bets of the Day, courtesy and brought to you by G-Bank, the official bank of VSiN.
39:38
I will start with mine. Uh, in Miami, the second half of the Sunshine Double, which, uh, Iga won both halves of two years ago. Olga Danilovic versus Hailey Baptiste is my first play. That's a little later.
39:49
And then, uh, I think happening right after the show, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, plus 119 versus Lucia Bronzetti. Again, all picks from all hosts and guests in every sport at vsin.com/picks for survivor.
40:00
I put mine out the night before. And I also took Naomi Osaka, my only futures in Miami. Uh, she's in a really easy quarter. It's the Coco Goff quarter, and Coco's not playing well.
40:10
But Osaka's hardcore numbers are spectacular, and if things break her way, uh, meaning that she's going to play up to her, her talent level and not be hampered by injury, and that Indian Wells was just a weird hiccup, which I think we're all finding out, 66 to one to win it, but more importantly, also seven to one to win the quarter.
40:28
Um- Fair, fair to say you're, uh, semi-fading Coco Goff here, uh- I am semi-fading Coco Goff... for the past few months. Yes, for sure, and that's worked out fine. That's the one thing that's worked out fine.
40:37
By the way, I did take Iga to win her quarter, but it's, I know mathematically it's not the correct thing to do, but I did take her at minus 110.
40:44
Um, three college basketball plays that I've made for March Madness, UC San Diego plus the three against Michigan. I don't really love that play, to be honest with you.
40:51
Grand Canyon, I did take the 11 versus Maryland when that first came out, and Georgia plus six versus the Zags of Gonzaga. I gotta come up with 17 more s- totals or sides for the, uh, VSiN bracket challenge.
41:03
That means I gotta come up with 20.
41:05
Uh, NBA for me, [laughs] the Bu- Bucks tonight, uh, I bet this, yes, uh, while the Warriors were playing last night, afterwards Steve Kerr said Steph Curry looks really, really tired, so that number has swung the other way.
41:17
He do. I think it's Bucks minus three, minus four right now, I believe is where it's at. So, uh, unplayable, sorry. Cavs minus three and a half, that's out to, like, four, four and a half. Uh, would still play that one.
41:28
Meaning Steph won't play is what you're saying. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. I mean, that's, that, that's what they were hinting, that's what Kerr was hinting at- Yeah... last night at least. Joe Pita came back on the show today.
41:36
Always great to see Joe. He, uh, added a few NL season wins. Diamondbacks, he l- says he loves this more than any of us. Mm-hmm. Diamondbacks over 86 and a half wins in the NL West.
41:47
Um, and then the Mets over 90 wins and the Phillies under 90 wins. He is a lifelong Phillies fan, so, uh, that has a little extra meaning when he, uh, says begrudgingly, "Mets over 90, Phillies under 90."
41:58
If the Mets could win, uh, 10 of those in the first 10, you know, first 10 games, that would be wonderful for some of us. [laughs] Uh, Will Hill, UC San Diego to the Final Four at 70 to one. Tritons, we shall see.
42:12
He's also got San Diego State plus the points against, uh, or here in the f- in the, uh, first four game. Then he's got Grand Canyon as well, plus the 10 and a half versus Maryland.
42:21
Oklahoma catching four and a half in the, in the, in the Mount St. Mary's American play-in game, the first four in the, uh, DC game. First half under 60 and a half.
42:31
I say a DC game 'cause both schools are, uh, American, actually, in DC. Mount St. Mary's not really close, but also a Mid-Atlantic school. Um, under 60 and a half in the first half of the Mount St. Mary's American game.
42:43
By the way, Steve Fezzik loves first half unders in the first four games, the play-ins. Okay. Uh, Jason Lisk. Make sense. Got an, got an, uh, squeezed an NIT pick out of him. Mm-hmm.
42:53
Loyola Chicago laying the point and a half as well. Uh, best bets always brought to you by G-Bank, the official bank of VSiN.
43:01
Each show, every host, every guest, every sport recapped right here on the network at the end of every show. Everybody's at the, at the end, correct? Is that correct? Of course they do it at the end. Yeah.
43:11
They don't do it, like, halfway through. That would be dumb. Um, G-Bank upping the ante with up to a $750 bonus for new G-Bank Visa Signature Card customers.
43:19
First new customers who spend $1,000 on eligible purchases within 90 days from account opening receive a $250 bonus.
43:25
In addition, if you spend $50,000 on gaming and sports app loads within 30 days of account opening, you'll receive another $500 bonus. That's potentially a $750 bonus. Apply now at vsin.com/gbank.
43:36
That's vsin.com/gbank, subject credit approval, terms, and conditions apply.
43:40
By the way, uh, with baseball having gotten underway this morning with the, uh, Dodgers four to one win over the Cubbies in Tokyo, they play game two tonight, just a reminder that our baseball bets, the three season longs that I've given out, not the three season longs, but the three futures bets,
43:55
Cleveland Guardians under 82 and a half wins,
43:58
March, April most wins, Minnesota Twins at 15 to one, and the race, in case you missed this at the end of last week, the race to 10 regular season wins, even shorter than the most wins March, April, the race to 10, the New York Metropolitan 17 to one.
44:13
So ideally, the Cubs will win tonight and beat the Dodgers so that neither team, then the, the s- sp- specifically the Dodgers in this case, will get to two wins in Tokyo. Sounds like a plan. Stormy Mattoni. Good enough.
44:27
Matt Brown. Money Moves next right here at VSiN, the sports betting network. Enjoy. [upbeat music]
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