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Mar 20, 2025
A Numbers Game | March 20, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | March 20, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander.
0:19
That right there is Kelly Bidlin, everybody, producer number nine. So much more than a producer. Um, is there anything happening today that I should know about for the show? Anything at all? The Celtics just got bought.
0:30
How much? [laughs] How much? 6.$6.1 billion for the Boston Celtics. Bill Chisholm buys, uh, the team. Yeah. For how much? 6.1 billion with a B. That's like a Washington football team purchase price.
0:42
They are, I mean, they are one of the more valued NBA franchises 'cause they have a, they, they've got- What? Six billion for a basketball team? Yeah. Wow. It's where we're at these days. Nice.
0:52
Jesse Pagula could afford it. Mm-hmm. Um, March Madness today. We are just over two hours away. Uh, Zach and Crack in full effect today. Zach Cohen, all his college basketball.
1:03
Uh, Bill Krackomberger on scripted of course. Throw in Adam Burke with all of his Thursday plays in March Madness. Uh, Dalen Cuff from ESPN standing by.
1:12
We will check in with our own Grace Remington, uh, here with, for the, for the vibe report. That's right. She'll be out in the book. Here at, uh, the Circus Sports Book, the, the grandest sports book of them all.
1:22
Uh, we don't usually start... And by the way, I will give out my 20 plays ATS/totals that I have entered in the VSiN bracket challenge. I hope everybody enters. Still have, uh, what?
1:32
An hour and 45 minutes to enter at vsin.com/contest. Vsin.com/contest. $3,000 first prize, and, but there's almost, like, 50 VSiN employees in there. Mm. Yeah.
1:43
Including all your favorite hosts, so you can have bragging rights over them. Even if you don't win the three grand, you can be like, "I crushed Kelly Bidlin." That's right. And that right- Come get it...
1:51
right there is currency. I believe, uh, what did I text you yesterday? Buddy, 20 is tough. 20. I mean- [laughs]... what? 20.
1:58
I'll give my 20 picks that I went with there, and then I will also give my three survivor plays. Did you put in your survivor plays? Survivor's in, buddy. All right. Sweet. Survivor's in.
2:06
Now, we don't usually start with a guest, but because this is March Madness this morning, uh, and by popular demand, do we have those two tweets, or do we have them up? We have them up? Yeah, we got those.
2:15
Uh, this is, uh, we just put a couple of these as a sample. Uh, this is from Bets Contrarian, who said, "Uh, do you still do the giant killer segment, or who was that? Uh, used to really enjoy that. Thanks.
2:26
Love the show." Thank you, Bets Contrarian. And this one from, uh, fr- another one from Sean Gaff. "Hey, uh, Pool Genius is a great tool. I use it for the NFL." See, that's something else.
2:35
But then he was, uh, oh, then he goes on and he goes, "Do you still do that giant killer segment? Who was that? Used to really enjoy that. Thanks. Love the show."
2:41
Well, it's not called the giant killer segment anymore, 'cause, uh, he and Jordan Brenner went to Underdog or w- or started doing their Underdog podcast over at, uh, MetalArc Media, and now they call it, uh, I believe they call it Bracket Busters.
2:53
Is that what they call it? Bracket Busters instead of Giant Killers. Ladies and gentlemen, it's my old friend, an annual tradition on the show, a tradition unlike any other, Peter Keating joins us, um, from- Gil. Gil.
3:03
No, no one- [laughs]... no one I'd rather play the numbers game with. Yes, thank you so much. Oh. And, uh, I appreciate you reading those tweets. We have a very [laughs]...
3:11
We're, we're trying to figure out if it's more than 74 people, but we have a very dedicated, uh, group of fans out there. [laughs] So I appreciate that. Oh, no, I'm sure it's more than 74. Peter, uh- [laughs]...
3:20
let's, let's start with, as we always do, with the criteria. What i- what does it require to be, what are the, what is the profile of a giant killer, or let's call it a bracket buster, in March Madness?
3:33
It's really simple. We, we've been doing this for 20 years now. It's called Bracket Breakers.
3:37
It's at The Athletic, and we're on our Underdogs podcast, and we look at match-ups where there's a difference of at least five seeds, so your, your 11s and 6s, 12s versus 5s, but also in subsequent rounds, like a two versus a seven qualify as a game, and we look at past tournaments to see what the statistical criteria are that have been associated with teams doing better or worse than you'd expect.
3:59
Then we look to see which teams this year have those, uh, criteria. So as you might expect, you, you, you're a really smart betting audience, um, uh, good underdogs tend to play high risk, high reward styles, right?
4:11
They, they press for turnovers. They crash the boards. They shoot a lot of threes. Teams that take on intelligent risk can broaden their scoring, and that gives you a puncher's chance to beat a better team.
4:23
It's simple, pretty simple in theory, not easy to do in practice because look, let's face it, all these teams are playing better opponents, so it takes a lot to put together. Okay.
4:32
So with just two hours left for folks to, uh, submit their brackets, uh, who are the bracket breakers? What teams apply to the bracket breaker profile? Here's the good news.
4:44
So many years these teams pop up early in the year. We follow them. We fall in love with them. Our statistical model loves them, then they either lose in conference tournaments, or they get really bad match-ups.
4:54
This year there's a few that are actually still in line, and I'll give you a few. One that we love is Drake. Um, you may have already talked about Drake.
5:02
Drake is the only team in the country that plays less than 60 percent, uh, uh, 60 possessions per game. They keep things close with everybody, so they're gonna hang tough. They get tons of offensive rebounds.
5:13
They force more steals at a higher rate than anyone in the country. Uh, we love Drake. Another one, UC San Diego. They've gotten a little trendy lately.
5:21
I think they're only a two and a half point underdog now against Michigan. Look, uh, l- like Drake, they've gotten a, a bunch of talent from D2.
5:29
Um, uh, they took four years, you know, the NCAA makes you wait four years when you move from D2 to D1 to be eligible to be in the tournament. They spent that time recruiting players from all around the world.
5:38
Now they have guys who execute all these giant killing strategies almost perfectly. They build a massive turnover advantage.
5:45
They, uh, the, the turnovers they generate compared to the ones they give up, it's like a 10 percentage point difference.
5:52
Meanwhile, they're playing Michigan, who throws the ball away one out of every five times that they touch it. So they got a great match up, and they got great giant killing skills.
6:00
And I'll also mention just as an off the wall long shot, keep an eye on a couple of deep underdogs. Uh, number one, High Point Because, um, they're just good enough to give a, a, a, a superior team trouble.
6:13
And Purdue is what we call a generic giant. They don't dominate the boards, they don't dominate turnovers at either end.
6:19
They require a good shooting night to win, and there's a bunch of teams floating around the, the, the t- top bracket, top parts of the bracket this year, Gil, where if you don't have a shooting night, you go home for the summer, and you need something to support you.
6:31
You need to build possessions in other ways to support you in case you don't have a great shooting night. And another one deep down in the brackets, Troy, because we think, uh, Kentucky's vulnerable. There's a lot of...
6:41
Troy does everything that we love in a giant killer. They kind of don't do anything else. They shoot a lot of threes. They force a lot of turnovers. They're sixth in the country in offensive rebounding percentage.
6:49
I mean, who had that on their bingo card? And Kentucky plays with a lot of risk.
6:52
They still haven't exorcised all of the demons that have led to a couple of early round upsets the past couple years, and, um, they got a puncher's chance there. They got a puncher's chance.
7:01
Drake, UCSD, High Point against Purdue, Troy against Kentucky. Um, yes, some of those that we have mentioned, uh, ad nauseam this week, but others we have not. [laughs] I'm sure.
7:12
Yeah, the UCSD one, I, I, I, I have put it in in all kinds of things. Uh, bracket- They're starting to get popular, right? Yeah. They're, they're way too popular, Peter. [laughs] It terrifies me. Way too popular, right?
7:22
Like- Well, you know, I, I, I tell you, we've noticed in the past few years that the money line catches up very rapidly with what our statistical model says.
7:30
So sometimes we're in the uncomfortable position of having to say, "We like the favorite because they're a better value bet," you know? But I don't think that's the case here yet with any of these teams.
7:39
The, the flip side, and you alluded to it with Purdue against High Point, with Kentucky against Troy, is there, there are the, the bracket breakers, and then there are those giants, if you will, that are susceptible to the carnage, Purdue and Kentucky perhaps being among them.
7:54
Are there other cl- are there other teams that are sort of the usual suspects of, of- Well- Yeah... you know, yeah, yeah, if I said to you, "What do you, what's the one thing you know BYU for?"
8:04
You would probably say three-point shooting, right? Now, there's more to that team, but if you find giants, like, like overdogs, like what I call overdogs, nobody else seems to like that word who I work with.
8:14
[laughs] But you find overdogs who, who carry a lot of risk in their play, right?
8:18
Um, if they, if they, if they, uh, you, you, you know, if they allow opponents to disrupt them by, you know, giving up the ball too often, or if they just take too many threes.
8:28
I mean, I think there's, there's risk in, uh, in Wisconsin's style.
8:31
And, and the reason I bring up BYU is because VCU is, uh, is just, you know, Shaka's, Shaka Smart's long gone, and so are all the coaches from his tree, but somehow in that team's DNA, they still have this extremely high turnover, play smart, uh, disruption opponent style.
8:48
And, um, I could see them eas- I mean, if you think about how, you know, they're a team that could play two of these vulnerable favorites in a row and, and ride giant killing to the Sweet 16.
8:58
That, that's a great point to make, that this is not just a first round thing. This is oftentimes a second round thing. I've, I've two things. One, keep workshopping overdogs. One of these years, it's gonna catch on.
9:07
[laughs] I think we're gonna get there.
9:08
And two, do you remember, like, your greatest, uh, I'm sure there were many of these, but do you remember a particularly, a particular historic call on one of these, what used to be giant killers, now we're calling them bracket breakers, that you take pride in?
9:21
Um, the first time I ever did this, back I think it was 2009 or 2010 I think, you know, betting was not legal hard- betting was legal hardly anywhere in the country, right?
9:32
And I was looking at Cleveland State playing in their conference tournament, and the numbers just started screaming at me. Here is, here is a team that forces so many more turnovers than its opponent.
9:42
It had lost twice already to the team it was facing, but I was really confident, and I was sitting there late at night at ESPN thinking, "How can we, you know, operationalize this information?"
9:54
I ended up calling an editor I knew who called the guy who allegedly placed the bet in Russia over the phone. [laughs] And Cleveland State came through.
10:01
I never saw any money from it, but that, but that's what you had to do back then, you know? You had to do back then. We will, I will say, talking about V- uh, VCU, our model loved VCU.
10:10
VCU played, seemed like it played a different giant killing style in every game on their way to the Final Four in, in, uh, as an 11 seed in 2011. That's a pretty good one.
10:20
Yeah, they were a first four, as a matter of fact, before getting the 11 seed. Yeah. That's right. Yes, they were. Yes. Um, Peter, let's tell everybody where... I, I, we met when you were at ESPN The Magazine.
10:30
Now you're at The Athletic. You also do the Underdog podcast with Jordan Brenner, your cohort for many years. Uh, how often do you do that podcast, and is that the best place to find your stuff?
10:39
Yes, you can find our podcast, which just basically talks about why unexpected things happen in sports, uh, everywhere you find podcasts, uh, uh, Apple, Spotify, anywhere. It's called the Underdog Podcast.
10:49
It's Jordan Brenner and me, Peter Keating. Uh, you can also hit us up on Twitter. We're easy to find. And right now, yes, we are on The Athletic with, with too many thousands of words of this March Madness coverage.
11:00
I, I, I don't even know which piece is up now. I should mention we're, I, I don't know how much you cover it, but we are also, we've extended our analysis to the women's game.
11:07
So if you're interested in the women's bracket, we've got our, our analysis of that up there, too, at The Athletic. Can you give us one team in the women's bracket that you think is, uh, is rife for upset potential?
11:16
[laughs] The women's bracket, the teams, the, the teams that we love did not get good matchups this year. Oh, okay.
11:23
The women's bracket is gonna look, is gonna look pretty chalky, although I love in a second round matchup, I, we love Vanderbilt against Duke. Ooh. So watch Vanderbilt.
11:32
They got, they force tons of turnovers, and they got, uh, uh, uh, they got two women who scored 50 points in a game this year who can take the game over.
11:40
That'll be like a, a really cool giant killer matchup for the eighth. Peter, Peter Keating, everyone. Peter, I love you. Thank you so much. Gil, anytime, and, uh, let's figure out how to...
11:50
[laughs] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. There's still time to sign up for VSiN's March Bracket Challenge. It is free to enter. Wish everyone was asking me this. "How much does it cost me?"
12:07
It's free, dude Free, and you can showcase your handicapping skills for a chance to win $5,000 in cash prizes, $3,000 for the first prize.
12:16
Participants will make 40 picks against the spread or on totals over the course of six tournament rounds.
12:23
It's 20, either, uh, ATS or totals in the first round, then 10 in the second round, then it's four in the Sweet 16, three in the Elite Eight, two in the Final Four, one in the championship game.
12:34
That's how it breaks down. Registration open now. Contest runs through championship game on April 7th. To sign up and review the official rules, visit vsin.com/contest. That's vsin.com/contest.
12:45
Hurry, entries will close soon, and by soon, we're talking 90 minutes from now. You got 90 minutes to do this. 8:45 Pacific, 11:45 Eastern for the deadline on the VSIN March Bracket Challenge. Vsin.com/contest.
13:00
And I will give my 20 coming up later on the show, plus my three Survivor plays as well. Very excite for Survivor. 20 was tough, man. All right. 20- I just pulled up my- 20 was a chore...
13:10
I had to find my text that I sent you. I was like, "Well, I, uh, I think my 20th was I'm going under in the St. John's game because, uh, I hear St. John's is pretty good on defense."
13:19
Ellie Midlin with the in-depth analysis, ladies and gentlemen. That's what you have come to love about this program. Dallin Cuff is in between gigs. What, is he going from radio to TV now? I believe so. I believe so.
13:29
Radio to TV. I think he's at the, in the parking lot in Bristol.
13:32
Uh, Dallin Cuff, who will be on all over, who will be all over ESPN today talking college basketball with us, joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
13:39
You can follow him on Twitter @Dallin, D-A-L-L-I-N, Cuff, C-U-F-F. What's happening, Dallin? Good morning to you. Guys, I'm, I'm, I'm trying to get into ESPN.
13:49
Remember that old Drew Brees commercial where he's driving, like, the Mardi Gras float- [laughs] Yes... through a huge line? Yes. I'm, they're, I'm, I'm at 10 deep to get to the turnstile here.
13:56
[laughs] What the heck is going on? Like- It's horrible... what are we doing? That's great. Just keep shouting at Brees up front, just, "Come on, Drew." [laughs] I, I, I was gonna wind down my window, "What are we doing?
14:05
We gotta go." [laughs] We gotta go. There's stuff going on today. Yeah. Um, well, while you're 10 deep, let's just, uh, let's make the t- let's make the wait better for you here. You can make it better for our audience.
14:16
Let's start with the macro. Yeah, a- and I don't know if you have a, a bracket in front of you- Yeah...
14:20
so m- you'll have to do this off of the top of your dome here, but do you remember your Elite Eight, your Final Four, and your championship game? Uh, I do and I hate them. So there's two different things here.
14:31
We have to fill out this bracket so fast when this thing comes out that it's our first blush, and I stick with it because we start talking about it on TV and radio right away, and podcasts. So I stick with it.
14:40
But the reason I hate it is I have Florida, I like Florida. I was just talking to you guys or a different show on VSIN back in November, and I liked Florida when at the time was, I think, 22 to, between 20 and 25 to 1.
14:49
It was what I was, one was long shot play from a book you were looking at.
14:53
Now that you can r- burn that ticket right now, boys, because every single one of us bozo analysts are picking Florida, and it's just never, it never ever works out like that. Never. UConn was different last year.
15:02
We'd seen 'em, we'd seen 'em do it already. It's a different team, generationally great. This is different. It's just not gonna happen.
15:07
So yeah, so my Elite Eight, so starting in the top left, it is Auburn against Michigan State. How novel that is, I know. Bottom left, you have, uh, Florida taking on Texas Tech.
15:18
Bottom right, you have Houston and Tennessee. I'm pretty boring. I have to look at this. Uh, top right, you do have Arizona beating Duke. So Arizona- Oh... and Bama. So those are my, those are the Elite Eight.
15:29
The Final Four are all one seeds with the exception of Alabama. Now granted, guys, this is when, when it filled out Sunday night, the hope was that Grant Nelson would be playing and we'd hear about that.
15:39
Not hearing much here. So that, that pick could be, uh, could be trash.
15:43
So I d- I do think that that's something to take a, to take note of before we finish this, is the amount of injuries to key teams, I've never seen this before, this many.
15:51
Duke's got not just Cooper Flagg, but Malik Brown. Texas Tech, Darion Williams, Williams and Chancellor filling, but I've heard good things there. You got I- Iowa State, no Keshawn Gilbert, he's out.
16:00
Houston's Juan Roberts, ankle. We can keep going. Like, there, there are so many key teams that have injuries that have to be, you gotta be aware of. So, um, that is that Bama pick is caveated with that.
16:11
I have Houston playing Florida in the final, Florida beating Houston. Florida beating Houston in the final. By the way, I said that same thing about the injuries Sunday night.
16:17
I was on a- another show here, uh, uh, Cash It Out with Joe Serallo here Sunday night, and I said the same thing where I was like, "I don't want to be prisoner of the moment," but did we ever have this many injuries heading into a March Madness- No...
16:26
for key players on key teams? Uh, with Grant Nelson at, at Bama, with the, with the Cooper Flaggs of the world at Duke. The f- the first round might not be the problem, right? You just want them for the weekend. Yep.
16:35
Uh, for sure. Uh, let's, let's backtrack before we get to some, some plays today. What is your b- uh, what is your love for Arizona based on here for a deep run that you just said? It's less about just love for Arizona.
16:47
It's more about the questions around Duke, and it's not just Flagg. Malik Brown is the bigger, not the bigger injury, the injury concern that I think is w- there's more questions around.
16:54
Remember, he missed four games in February. He just got back against Carolina, and he was the difference in that Carolina game in the regular season, regular season finale. Remember, they were up, then they went down.
17:02
He came in and w- he's their most switchable, defensive, versatile, ver- defensively versatile piece with great length.
17:08
Today he made a couple threes, which was abnormal, but his ability to impact the game defending, rebounding, I think can't be understated.
17:14
And I, I think with him out of the lineup is important, and one concern that I continue to have with this Duke team is, guys, they've played in, like, four games all year that had true game pressure at the end where you had to make plays on both ends of the floor, and they lost three of them.
17:26
And, and then, and, and the last one that happened was Clemson in February ac- and they went at Cooper Flagg defensively.
17:32
They were able to isolate him, whether that be in the post or driving him, and Chase Hunter was great in that game. But then late game, he's got the ball in his hand, turnover.
17:39
And it, we gotta rewind all the way to Kentucky and Kansas in November to find the last game that was a really tight game late, turnover by Flagg, turnover by Knueppel. So you grow as a freshman.
17:48
They're different players now. I get it. The team is different.
17:51
But still, with this amount of pressure and this amount of attention with a team that may be dinged up that hasn't played in those games, whereas Arizona has guys that are a little older, great guard play.
18:01
Granted, Caleb Love's been much better as of late, very efficient. Bigs inside, Base are a physical guy, and they've seen Duke. Now, they got handled at home.
18:09
They were a different team before, but they've seen the length, they've seen the athleticism, they know what the team's about. I think that experience helps them.
18:14
So we, we need to have some kind of chaos, which I don't have much of, so that was the, that was the, uh, the attempt there. We do have a lot of upsets in the early part, and some double-digit seeds in the Sweet 16.
18:23
But when it got to Elite Eight and Final Four, I was kind of chalky and tried to mix it up a little bit. There was your rationale. What are your favorite upsets first round? Uh, VCU. I like VCU. I, I...
18:33
That's what sucks is I like both those teams, man. I wanted to... This is what we...
18:36
We always have teams in mind you wanna make a deep run before you see the bracket come out, and then they're playing each other, BYU and VCU. I do think it's not a great matchup for BYU.
18:43
VCU, first in the nation effective field goal percentage defense. They limit your threes, which is really the key to BYU. They also have a top 10 team in terms of blocks, so they have great rim protection.
18:52
So when B- BYU gets you spread out, which is what they do, and then they attack, they got bigs in there that can, uh, that can block shots. Also an elite offensive rebounding team.
18:59
They turn you over, which VC- BYU has problems with. I don't think it's a great matchup for the Cougars. So we got VCU. Also VCU beating Wisconsin 'cause it's a similar method to how Wisconsin plays.
19:08
So VCU into the Sweet 16, uh, playing Bama. And if Grant Nelson's not healthy, VCU could find a way in the Elite Eight I think is possible. There's, uh, quite a bit of value on, on that play.
19:17
Um, the other one is Yale to the Sweet 16. I think Yale playing Texas A&M. We've seen it. A lot of these guys were on the team last year that beat Auburn. Uh, John Paul Asied had 28 points in that game.
19:26
He's back, lefty, NBA level shooter. They've got bigs and big guards to help rebound. The whole, that whole game comes down to rebounding the ball with A&M. A&M is unskilled and can't shoot.
19:34
If they can rebound the ball, Yale, which is top 25 in defensive rebounding percentage, I think they're right there. They are the more skilled team. They have more shot makers. They have more playmakers.
19:42
I think they can win that game. I have UCSD beating Michigan opposite them, so those two teams will be a 12, 13 matchup. Really like UC San Diego. They turn you over. They don't turn it over. They make shots.
19:53
Michigan got kind of hosed here. They play M- what, Sunday till 5:00, then they gotta fly to, fly to play at Denver Thursday at 10:00 PM at altitude. It's really not the ideal situation for them.
20:03
So I like UCSD in that game, so that gives me Yale in the Sweet 16. I think they beat them. Um, Ole Miss in the Sweet 16, not as much of a, a, a shot there.
20:12
Um, Texas Tech I think is a lot of value to get, um, to get to the Sweet, to get to the Elite Eight. They gotta beat St. John's. I think they can do that if fully healthy.
20:20
I like the Johnnies, but lack of three-point shooting, lack of free throw shooting concerns me, uh, late game with the Johnnies. So I think that's like plus 170 for Texas Tech to get to the Elite Eight.
20:29
Um, those are some of the, some of the upsets, I guess. Texas Tech, not a big one, but the other ones, some of the double digits. Yeah, you also like Georgia plus the points against Gonzaga? This is fascinating, guys.
20:39
And you'll... I mean, how often do you ever remember an eight, nine game with a po- with a power conference opponent where there's a spread of... Now, I'm going against the money here.
20:46
It was once six and a half, now it's seven and a half in a lot of books, um, that is this big. And, and I understand, like Vegas loves the Zags, and the, all the numbers do.
20:54
In, in Ken Pomeroy's rankings, Gonzaga's the ninth overall team.
20:57
They're an eight seed 'cause their, their performances and their resume doesn't, doesn't match the metrics in terms of the efficiency by which they played in big opponent, a- against big opponents.
21:06
I don't know if that plays out here, too, 'cause if you can make, if you can make them play in a half-court game and be physical with them like we saw St.
21:11
Mary's do twice, they did not do in the West Coast Conference final, mainly St. Mary's turned it over and, uh, well, I think they gotta be much more comfortable in that game. But Georgia's gonna grind it.
21:19
They're gonna play a half-court game. They have good neutral court wins. They have obviously good wins within the league.
21:23
I mean, they beat Florida, they beat Texas at, on the road at Texas when they kind of had to, uh, late season. But they, they... Newell's physical inside. They can shoot it with a couple guys.
21:31
But they're gonna make it a challenge and make it a fight. I think they can win outright, so if you're gonna get seven and a half, I, I'll take the seven and a half. All right.
21:38
Did I see the other graphic, guys, where, where Dalen had, uh, other picks from just this morning?
21:41
So the first half of the day today, uh, already mentioned VCU, but you're also on the, uh, Purdue over against high point 154. Houston team total over at 77 and a half, uh, that against, uh, Edward- Edwardsville today.
21:55
And then also early today, Clemson laying the wood minus the seven and a half. All this morning from Dalen. So, uh, that, there's four games right there in add- in addition to VCU.
22:05
Those are all in the first half of the day today. Dalen, it sounds like by the echo that you got through the barrier and you're ready to start your day at ESPN, so we're gonna let you go. Appreciate it, man. All right.
22:15
Thanks, guys. Have a good one. You too. Dalen Cuff, everybody, @dalencuff, D-A-L-E-N C-U-F-F, from ESPN, and he's got a full day of, uh, Sports Centers galore. Not Sports Center, but what do they call it?
22:26
The, uh, whatever they call their- ESPN Bet Live, I believe... Bet Live, I believe. Yeah. Over, under. I'm gonna go two and a half sets that you'll see Dalen Cuff on this weekend. Oh, over, easy. I think so, too.
22:36
Over, easy. 'Cause, like, college basketball, ESPN Bet, and then SportsCenter. Yeah. Uh, Zach and crack, beginning with the Zach part of that.
22:43
Zach Cohen joins us with some tennis plays and all his college hoops plays today and beyond. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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23:22
I think when you type it in, you kind of have to do it with that kind of, like, oomph. Let's go. Let's go. Type it like Kelly Bidlin style. He hits the, uh, keyboard hard. It's free in the App Store.
23:31
Juice Reel, J-U-I-C-E-R-E-E-L. Download Juice Reel today. We get tweets at Beat the Book. Always appreciate the feedback.
23:39
SquareBob2022, "As all Big West alumni know, this whole conference is filled with, uh, D2 athletes. This UCSD-Michigan game will be over by halftime.
23:50
This line would be 15 if it was UC Irvine, and should be 10 plus today. Your regret is justified." He's talking about my regret 'cause as soon as I bet UCSD, I'm like, "Oh, no. This is not gonna go well." Okay.
24:00
There is... Look, I, I'm not even gonna bring up the side of how many people we've heard betting San Diego to, uh, senior. It's r- it's ridiculous. I'm gonna go the- It's all one-way traffic...
24:08
I'm gonna go the other side. Have you heard a single person say they're betting Michigan? Not one. Not one. And that terrifies me. And Michigan is good, man. They got twin towers Leaflet, by the way, on Danny Wolf.
24:20
Brian M., Brian, uh, Moriana, "The arm swing is coming in like a wrecking ball today." Talking about you. That's right. Kelly Billington, the pronounced arm swing, ladies and gentlemen. Drew at Mr. Drew 50.
24:30
I'm totally just Ron Burgundy-ing through these. "Yo, who was the expert you had on last year discussing the race to, uh, 10 points? They were amazing, and I would love to follow their work this year."
24:40
Did we have a race to 10 expert on? No, I don't, I don't remember that. I don't remember that either. Here's my advice. Just bet dogs. Like, $2 dogs, just keep betting them.
24:48
I mean, that's the only ones you're really- Just keep betting them... looking at, right? It's- Well, to 10, if it's a race to 10, um, by the way, I, I, y- I, if it's a race to 10, you should absolutely be doing that.
24:58
15 is also very cool. Don't do a race to 20. I mean, like, that's- 'Cause that's when in the, the power, you know, manifests. The better team will manifest by then.
25:07
But personally, if I'm looking race to 10 ones, and those are the ones I actually will bet one, and I bet one of them. I bet Omaha. Um, that was a Jim Root, uh, suggestion.
25:15
But I'm looking at dogs, and I'm looking at three point, uh, good three point shooting teams. Yeah. 'Cause, like, hit a couple threes, and then all of a sudden you're right there.
25:22
Uh, Chance Copper Pot, "Today's a beautiful day. Not only is it tourney time, but the Celtics have been sold, paving the way for the return [laughs] of a beloved C- of, of our beloved Seattle SuperSonics."
25:32
He thinks the, uh, Celtics are [laughs] gonna move to Seattle. Yeah, no, I don't think that's gonna happen. D Gen, Southern Gen, "Merry March Madness morning, fellas. Best of luck today.
25:38
I'm curious, was Wyatt, Savannah, or anyone on the Numbers Game staff involved in making Stadium Swim's Mania Under the Sun commercial? Not sarcasm. It's such a great ad. I get jacked every time I see it."
25:49
Have you seen that? I haven't seen that. Savannah? I don't know. I don't- Wyatt? You guys in that? I don't think so. I don't think so. Um. [laughs] She says, "I have no idea."
25:57
Savannah's like, "I have no idea what you're talking about." I don't think Savannah was in it. [laughs] Jack and a Prius 2.0, "Absolutely looking forward to going 0 and 20 in the VSAN Live bracket pool today."
26:06
Hey, me too, Jack. Let's go get 'em. Let me tell you, if you guys go 0 and 20, or if I go 0 and 20, it is quite a feat. [laughs] There is no booby prize, however. We'll get to more of these.
26:13
I wanna get to Zach Cohen, who joins us now. Zach joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, part of the Zach and Crack Comedy Hour here on the, uh, on the show. You can follow him on Twitter at BettingOnX.
26:24
We got much to get to. We will start with tennis. I will give you, uh, my four tennis plays today. We'll get yours. Yesterday was a, uh, winning day at the Miami Open based on one match for me.
26:35
Yulia Grabher, otherwise known as Yulia Grab Her. Yeah, way to go, Grab Her. She won in straight sets against, uh, against, what's her name? Tyra Katarina Grant yesterday. Katarina? Not Katarina. Uh, Tyra Grant.
26:47
She, she beat her in straight sets. So a plus 237 dog gets home. So I got four today. Uh, the four that I am on, one on the men's side, I'm on Zizu Bergs against Nuno Borges. That's Bergs over Borges.
27:00
Very tough to remember. Uh, and then on the, uh, on the ladies' side, do we have a graphic on that? We don't. Uh, on the ladies' side then, um, I've got
27:10
Naomi Osaka minus 119 against Ludmilla Samsonova, Magda Linette a plus 170 dog against a Katarina Alexandrova, and Rebecca Sramkova a plus 170 dog against Jasmine Paolini.
27:23
So two big dogs, Naomi, and on the men's side, Zizu Bergs. Zach, what you got? I actually have Alexandrova to win quarter two, uh- Ooh...
27:31
just a little sprinkle, so hopefully [laughs], hopefully I, I'm not rooting against you, or may- maybe I am. I don't know. [laughs] I have, uh, I have Sophia Kenan plus one and a half sets today against Coco Goff.
27:40
I, I also sprinkled some money line. I, I just think we're back in a phase where we need to start fading Goff a little bit. I, I think her serve numbers are terrible. Uh, her forehand is kind of falling apart again.
27:50
Kenan kind of got hot in the Middle East, uh, is playing some much better tennis now than she was earlier in the year when they met at the Australian Open. That was a straight set win for Goff.
27:58
I, I think this is gonna be a close match. And then I have two others. Uh, Linda Frodleva, uh, plus one and a half sets against Beatriz Haddad Maia.
28:06
Uh, that's a fade on Haddad Maia, who has been terrible since the start of the year. I believe she's two and eight and just has horrible service and return numbers.
28:13
And a, and a similar thing with, uh, Elena Gabriela Ruiz, money line against Magdalena Frech.
28:18
Uh, Frech is another player that just has not been able to win since the start of the year, and I know I am getting everybody excited that came here for March Madness talk. Ru- Ruiz was the one that I almost played.
28:28
Her numbers are way better than Frech, so we'll see how that goes. Good luck to you on that.
28:31
And we are completely opposite on Osaka and Alexandrova, not only in the match today, but also in the quarter, 'cause I have Osaka in the quarter. All right.
28:37
You wanted to mention something before we get to college hoops about the Minnesota Timberwolves. What would that be?
28:42
I just think we've been looking all year in the NBA for the second-best team in the Western Conference, and I think it's pretty clearly Minnesota.
28:48
Of course, I'm saying this after a two-game losing streak with some, you know, bad losses [laughs] in there. Yeah.
28:53
But since, uh, an eight and 10 start to the season, they are the fourth-best team in efficiency differential at cleaning the glass. Uh, they're second best of the league in defense in that time, 10th best in offense.
29:04
They have really figured out how to play with Julius Randle since he came back from his injury.
29:08
I think that kind of people wrote them off early in the season because obviously, you know, the Towns trade looked bad on paper, but now that Randle's playing well and DiVincenzo's shooting well, this is a team that I don't think anybody's gonna wanna see in the Western Conference, and there's a good chance they're on the opposite side of the bracket from the Thunder, and, oh, by the way, [laughs] they're two and two against OKC this year.
29:26
Man loves the T-Wolves. It's what he loves. All right. They're looking good. March Madness, the big dance, the NCAA tournament, an event so great we have three names for it. What do you like today, Zach?
29:36
I just texted Kelly. I have, I have a nice surprise for you guys. I am on Michigan, so you found somebody- There you go. Wow. Wow. Yep. [laughs] I knew if we did this five days, we'd find somebody.
29:46
I have the Wolverines minus 135. I didn't lay the points, but I do think that Michigan's size advantage is going to be a little bit overwhelming in this game.
29:53
I think that a lot of the common thinking is that with two seven-footers, maybe you could speed things up, shoot them off the floor, but Danny Wolf moves his feet really well.
30:02
I, I don't think you're gonna be able to do that with him. Maybe you can with Golden, and I am a little bit nervous about, you know, all the people saying that Michigan's turnover rate is high.
30:10
I think a lot of that has to do with playing in a really good conference with a lot of good defensive teams.
30:13
So I think the Wolverines are going to look better today, and I think it's a team that obviously is battle tested. They just won the Big 10 tournament, beat some really good teams.
30:21
I don't think they're going to tr- get tripped up here. I think there's a chance that this ends up being, you know, uh, not a blowout, but pretty lopsided. Yale, Michigan, and Israel.
30:30
Danny Wolf has played for all those squads. And that's a, that's a heck of a trio right there. I, I kind of like really, really, really wanna bet Michigan. I just haven't done it yet. [laughs] Yeah.
30:39
And I hate Michigan, by the way. As a guy that went to Wisconsin, I grew up in New York, like I do, I can't stand Michigan. So it, it took a lot for me to get here.
30:46
Zach won't have any trouble finding TruTV 'cause he loves Impractical Jokers, we learned. [laughs] He loves Impractical Jokers. That's true. His TV is set to TruTV around the clock. I love it. Um, all right.
30:57
There's talk of me changing my Twitter handle, by the way. I should make it Imzactical Jokers or something. Oh, I like that. Ooh. [laughs] Imzactical Jokers. No, your Twitter handle's awesome, Betting On X.
31:05
Uh, okay, besides Michigan, what do you like? I like Clemson. I laid seven against McNeese State. I, I just think that the Tigers, it's another game. I think they're gonna be a little bit too big.
31:15
Uh, McNeese's tallest player in their rotation is six foot nine. Clemson has a really good pair of bigs, uh, and I do really like the Clemson back court.
31:22
I also just kind of wonder what the motivation's gonna be like now with Will Wade looking giddy at his press conference the other day, uh, being asked about the, you know, the NC State interviews, and obviously a couple hours later we find out he's gonna be coaching them.
31:34
I feel like Wade has already turned his attention to that NC State job. I wouldn't be surprised if he's trying to get some of his McNeese players over there. And Clemson obviously just locked up Brownell.
31:43
I, I think it's a really good team that is very good defensively, is just not going to, you know, kind of let McNeese speed things up and get going.
31:50
Yeah, there was a ti- 1989, Bill Frieder, uh, took a job right before the Big Dance. Steve Fisher took over and Michigan won the national title. Um, but, uh, Will Wade will be coaching today for McNeese State.
32:02
Um, okay, anything else today besides those two? No, m- I have two that I really like tomorrow. Okay. I, I, I have Colorado State minus one and a half against Memphis.
32:12
That's probably my favorite play of the tournament so far. I just think the Rams, you look at their statistical profile this year, KenPom and Bart Torvik, they're a better team than Memphis over the entire season.
32:21
But when you look at just February 1st and beyond, Colorado State was a top 25 team in the country, and is just kind of peaking at the right time.
32:28
I think that they have the best player on the floor in Neek Cl- uh, Clifford, and I do think this is going to be a game that they win, uh, pretty comfortably too.
32:34
I, I think that that spread should've been closer to four and a half or five. Uh, so you like Colorado State tomorrow. Well, you said there were two. What was the other? Uh, Xavier money line against Illinois.
32:44
I wrote that game up last night right after Xavier won that game. If you break down what happened to Illinois late in the season, they were awful defensively.
32:52
They were actually the fifth worst team in the nation in three-point defense. Uh, in that same span of February 1st and later, Xavier shot 40% from three.
33:00
I also don't think Illinois is great when it comes to two-point defense, so I think that Zach Freemantle is going to get going in a way that he didn't against, against Texas.
33:07
So I, I think that that's a game that Xavier really should win, and they're out there plus 142. Xavier, great come from behind win over Texas to get into the, uh, field of 64 last night.
33:16
And Illinois, what interesting different opinions. You have them getting knocked out early.
33:20
I think we had somebody else having them knocked out early, and yet we have Will Hill on the, uh, Megapod who has them going to the Elite Eight, and Todd was just screaming at him, uh, about that play.
33:30
Uh, who's your national champion before we go? I have Houston. I just think that that defense is really good. It's the best offense that Sampson's had there. There you go. Zach, appreciate it, man.
33:39
Good luck with all the plays. Zach Cohen, everybody. Thanks, guys. Betting On X. Adam Burke with all his college plays next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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34:35
Get access to the best betting insights at sharpplays.com. Skill Alexander, we get tweets at Beat Of The Book. People getting pumped for the VSiN bracket challenge.
34:44
You have exactly one hour left to submit at vsin.com/contest. Please do this. This is so much fun. Um, again, $3,000 first prize, 1,500 for second place, 500 for third.
34:57
And again, it's all your VSiN, uh, your favorite VSiN host are in this as well. C Spackler, "I'm in the NCAA contest for the money. You mentioned we can get props for beating the, uh, numbers game bros.
35:06
Having some trouble evaluating the CV [laughs] of such a prop. Maybe a digital high five?" Uh, we'll shout you out for sure. Hey, if you win it, I'll give you a physical high five. That's right.
35:15
Kelly- You, you just have to come all the way down to Vegas and be outside Caesars Oh, I was gonna say, Kell- I was gonna say Kelly Billings will fly to your home and give you a hug. No, maybe not.
35:21
No, on my dime, but sure, yeah. Uh, Charles in Connecticut, Hoop Homer, he says, "I love the bracket challenge idea.
35:26
I don't expect to win anything, but being able to see the VSiN host picks and watching how I do versus them is what I'm looking forward to the most. As long as I beat college hoop savant Kelly, I did well."
35:37
You're the barometer, Kelly. Yeah, Matt Youmans- He's trying to beat you... Matt Youmans did just email me, uh, about 10 minutes ago wondering why I was laying 17 points with Michigan.
35:45
[laughs] It was supposed to be Michigan State. I screwed up apparently. Oh. Yeah. [laughs] Nice job. That's where we're at. You're off to... Kelly's off to a great start.
35:53
And, uh, K Browskowski, he said, "I'm ex- I'm excited to get my 15 seconds of fame when Gil and Kelly are looking up at me in the bracket challenge." How about that? Talking smack already. There you go.
36:04
Again, vsin.com/contest. Um, you have one hour, now 58 minutes, to enter.
36:10
Uh, Adam Burke, while all that's going on with our vsin.com, uh, with our, uh, VSiN bracket challenge, he put together the VSiN college basketball betting guide.
36:18
Not just him, but he is, of course, the lead on all of our betting guides, and they are spectacular. A very weary and tired, uh, Adam Burke joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line from his lair here in Vegas.
36:31
A golf clap to you, Mr. Burke, sir. Another fine job on your part Well, I appreciate that, boys. I mean, I, I gotta give a lot of credit to Zachary Cohen too.
36:40
I mean, my senior editor is my right-hand man, and he's, he's fantastic. He's a great guy to work with. I know you guys are very familiar with him, having him on to talk tennis and NBA.
36:48
But, uh, Zach, Steve Makinen, Matt Devine, all the hosts that contributed and participated, a total team effort here with that guide, and I'm really proud of the product we put out. Man, Adam, your voice.
36:59
You are really... Yeah, he's tired. He's been working on this. He's been working hard. Around the clock. Yeah. I'm just glad Zach could fit his work in between the commercial breaks of Impractical Jokers.
37:07
[laughs] That's right. He's got- The ultimate true TV fan. That's what we love... Is there a sh- is there a show that's on more than that show? No, I don't know.
37:12
[laughs] His wife is, like, pulling him away from the TV, "Do your guide already." Uh, Adam, let's start with today's games. What do you like today? What have you bet so far?
37:21
Yeah, so I mean, I know it's a really trendy underdog pick, but, uh, I do like High Point getting the points against Purdue. I mean, this is a Purdue team that doesn't get to the rim at all.
37:29
Uh, you know, they got a 28% shot share on close twos. Their offense is completely changed without Zach Edey in the lineup.
37:35
And if we're talking about a jump shooting contest, High Point can hang around in a type of game like that. They're a team that shoots the ball very, very effectively, very well-coached.
37:43
They've been a great team for two years even though last year they squandered the conference tournament with it at home. This year, they won it in more of a neutral setting.
37:52
So I just think High Point is a team that, you know, they can hang around here. They can get hot from three, and Purdue just doesn't force the issue enough for me getting to the rim.
38:00
The other thing, guys, a lot of these teams in the Big Ten don't play very aggressive defense, don't force a whole lot of turnovers.
38:06
If you're not forcing turnovers, that's how these Cinderella low major types of teams are able to stick around.
38:12
So I think High Point, in kind of a distance shooting contest, because Purdue, about 34% of their shots are mid-range jumpers. Over 38% of their shot attempts are threes.
38:22
I think it's the type of game that High Point wants to be in, and so I think that the Panthers have a good chance to hang around here. So I took them plus the points against the Boilermakers.
38:31
Um, what of your underdog plays do you have advancing to the Sweet 16? Is there a team that you think has legs? Yeah, I mean, I, I think Utah State has legs here tonight.
38:41
I know that we've all kind of been, uh, you know, taking a dump on the Mountain West after what we saw from San Diego State, but this Utah State team, I mean, again, you know, shot selection is a really important thing for me, especially when you talk about the NCAA tournament, where you're playing in a lot of these neutral settings, [clears throat]
38:57
excuse me, and stuff like that. But this Utah State team, I mean, they have one of the highest rim in three rates in the NCAA tournament. They're a team that gets to the rim about 46% of the time.
39:07
They shoot a lot of threes. UCLA is a team that doesn't get to the rim, settles for a lot of mid-range jump shots.
39:13
I know that's worked for Mick Cronin's teams in the past, but, you know, I think Utah State's able to take care of the basketball against them.
39:20
Utah State forces almost the same rate of turnovers that UCLA does, and they're a better three-point shooting team.
39:27
So I think Utah State is a team that can not only cover the spread here today, but also one that has the opportunity to advance. Wow. First of all, couple things.
39:35
One, technical term, Adam saying, uh, taking a dump on the Mountain West. Yep. Very aggressive term. Uh, we appreciate that.
39:41
And then two, again, with the dis- uh, we know with the disparate views, uh, Utah State, Adam, uh, proponent of, and then, uh, Todd Wishnev on the, uh, on the Megapod loves UCLA. He's got them going to the Elite Eight.
39:52
So again, we'll see, uh, where this all falls. Uh, what about your Elite Eight? Who do you have in your bracket, Adam? Yeah, I mean, you know, I filled out a bracket for the Visa and March Mania guide.
40:03
And, you know, look, I mean, I, it, it's such a high variance tournament, because for me, I have a really difficult time with the fact that we go from nothing but conference play to playing non-conference games.
40:14
You know? It, it's a really high variance type of event.
40:18
So for me, it's, it's not an event where I, I feel overly confident in terms of, you know, the picks that I make, just because again, you go from playing similar styles, similar talent levels, stuff like that, to going out there and, you know, playing a lot of different teams that you haven't really seen before.
40:34
Coaching matters so much as well. But in terms of my Elite Eight, uh, you know, in the top left bracket, I mean, I have Louisville and Michigan State, who are two teams that a lot of people probably don't have- Wow...
40:45
making super deep runs. But I think the Cardinals are extremely well-coached under Pat Kelsey.
40:50
I know that a lot of people don't like the ACC for a variety of different reasons outside of Duke, but I think this Louisville team is really, really, really strong.
40:59
I think they're capable of matching up with Michigan, who I think makes the Sweet 16 in that little pod there.
41:04
Uh, so I have Louisville and Michigan State up in the top left, Duke and Alabama, no shocker, in the, in the top right.
41:10
Um, you know, Duke is a team that I expect to make the national championship game, and Alabama's a team that can just shoot the hell out of the basketball. Gonzaga and Illinois in the bottom right for me.
41:20
I think Gonzaga knocks off Houston.
41:21
You know, I know Houston is shooting 40%, or, you know, shooting much better from three this year than they typically do, but this is still a team that get, really gets bogged down in the offensive half court.
41:30
I'm not a fan of them in the NCAA tournament.
41:33
They play great defense, but in a game that's going to be played to low possession numbers, you know, they just, they don't do enough offensively for me to get excited about them.
41:42
So I think Gonzaga does ultimately beat them, does get to the Elite Eight here. And Illinois in the bottom of the bracket, this is a team where a lot of guys were sick throughout the course of the, of Big Ten play.
41:52
I think this is a much better team than we saw during the season. They're healthier now. They're going to be more physically strong in this tournament.
42:00
I, you know, I think that's a team that can really make a deep run there as a six seed in the Midwest region. And then Florida and Texas Tech coming out of the, of the west region there.
42:10
I really, really like this Texas Tech team. I think they beat St. John's in the Sweet 16. I don't think they cover today. I actually like UNC Wilmington getting a boatload of points in that game.
42:19
But I think Texas Tech is a really, really strong team that we're not talking enough about. The problem is running into Florida in the Elite Eight. Florida, to me, is the best team in the country.
42:29
So I do have Florida winning it all, but my Elite Eight, Louisville, Michigan State, Duke, Alabama, Gonzaga, Illinois, and Florida, Texas Tech. Wow, that's pret- that's, well, you got some outliers in there for sure.
42:40
Illinois in there is, is, is probably the one that leaps off the page the most. Will Hill also had Illinois in his Elite Eight based on some of the, uh, the same reasoning.
42:48
Um, and then your national championship game or your Final Four and your national championship are? Yeah. Uh, I got Florida and Duke in the title game.
42:55
I mean, you know, this Duke team, obviously they fit the criteria, and that's an understatement to say, being a top five team in, in offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency.
43:04
I know you've got your checklist, the criteria of teams that can actually win a natty. Duke is definitely on that list. Yep.
43:10
I mean, as long as Cooper Flagg is able to be okay, and seems like he's going to be, not that they need him here today, uh, in the game against, uh, whoever it is that they play.
43:19
Doesn't really matter with the, the number 16 teams. [laughs] But, you know, I mean, I just think this Duke team is, is very, very strong. But I think Florida, you know, the...
43:28
And this should come as no surprise to you, Gil. You know my baseball handicapping. You know what I prioritize there.
43:35
Florida is the most analytically savvy team in the NCAA tournament, and I think that's something that's really going to benefit them when you combine that with the talent that they have, the shot making that they have, the shot selection that they have.
43:47
I just think this Florida team, I mean, they earned it through the gauntlet of the SEC, and I think that, you know, the little edges that they can get over the course of a game ultimately make the difference, and the Gators cut down the nets in San Antonio.
43:58
Yeah, Duke plays Mount St. Mary's, of course, who, uh, got in after, uh, American, uh, lost yesterday to the Mountaineers. Uh, big injury obviously in that game that, uh, torpedoed American.
44:09
Um, five seconds, we let you go with this. Trendy dog you don't buy is? UC San Diego. Give me Michigan. Woo-hoo. I don't know how the Tri- I don't know how the Tritons cover two seven-footers in this game today.
44:22
I, I think you're right. What's going on in the- I hate that you're right, but I think you're right... What's going on in the Visa newsroom down there- I know... with the writers? Wow.
44:28
It's all, it's a Michigan, it's a Michigan flurry. Thank you, Adam. Get some rest. Have a good one, guys. Crack next unscripted numbers game
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