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Mar 20, 2026
A Numbers Game | March 20, 2026 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | March 20, 2026 | Hour 2
00:00
45:21
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, part of Sharp Week. VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, Sirius XM channel 158. Gil Alexander. The show brought to you by Prophet X.
0:21
Kelly behind the glass 'cause, uh, Fezzik's about to join us here, but I wanna read, uh, some more tweets here. This is from... This was, uh... I wanna give the, uh, the person the credit here.
0:30
Ryan Klaus, uh, queued me, uh, into this quote. Iga lost yesterday. Iga Swiatek, the world number three, lost yesterday in the first round of the Miami Open. This breaks a run of 73 consecutive opening match wins.
0:45
Until yesterday, you could say, well, she never loses early. Well, she lost to her countrywoman, uh, her countrymate Magda Linette yesterday, 1-6, 7-5, 6-3.
0:55
And Iga said, quote, "The worst nightmare a tennis player can have. Um, tennis feels complicated in my head." And as I've said many times on this show, something is definitely going on between the ears.
1:08
There's no question something is going on between the ears, and there is, there is the verbal confirmation of it from the great Iga Swiatek. But you know, clay's happening, so we'll see if that changes.
1:19
We'll see if that changes. Uh, this is from, let's see. Boop, boop, boop, boop, boop. Boop, boop, boop, boop, boop. Sorry. This is from, uh, I wanna get to the, uh, ones we haven't read here. This is from, uh,
1:28
Greg Jones. Oh, they're in a, they're in a listener-to-listener, uh, compa- uh, conversation. This is Justin D., says, "I watched TNT's formula yesterday.
1:36
The criterion that, uh, you mentioned that knocked Florida out was that they weren't ranked in the top 12 of the AP ranking in week 16." Excuse me, week six, pardon me. They weren't in the top 12 of week six.
1:48
The last 20 champs were. Chuck and Kenny were calling that out. Yeah, that seems a little, uh, seems a little data mining-ish. RaiderNation75 was the one who pointed out the DK Prediction Markets.
1:57
Thank you, RaiderNation75. He says, "I notice they're up now. Not sure worth mentioning. Maybe I'm reading this wrong. If I, if I am, I will blame it on the beers." No, it was absolutely worth mentioning.
2:06
Thank you to that. And he says, "Happy Friday." Uh, Shrek says, "Jesus, this really is the worst tournament. Miami just rained out again."
2:13
Well, at least they'll try to get in, but it's raining again, so no matches have just have started. Scott C., "Riddle for a numbers game. What had two thumbs up and went 10 and one in the VSiN March betting challenge?
2:23
This guy," pointing to himself. Nicely done. Well done, Scott C. JasonH11, "I thought Nessler was trying to channel his inner Keith Jackson." Maybe he was.
2:32
MMA Bottlehe- uh, Bobblehead, "I saw Fezzik in the Best of It documentary and he was about 30 to 40 pounds heavier. Can you ask him what he did to lose so much weight?" Why don't we use that as a segue?
2:43
Time for Fezzik Fridays Early Edition. [upbeat music] Whether it's at the sportsbook or anywhere else in the casino, he's always helping us find an edge. It's time for Fezzik Fridays.
2:54
Starring Steve Fezzik, the only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest, the man who laid the wood once again on Michigan and Duke yesterday. Winners. How many, "Oh dears," did you say?
3:06
How many times during the Duke game were you like, "Oh dear"? You know, it's funny because- Oh dear... oh dear, people are gonna get mad at me. You know, you got people that are struggling, you know?
3:17
They can't put two nickels together, telling you what an idiot you are in terms of how you wager, and it's all you can do not to say, "You know what? You probably have some good input.
3:26
Maybe, could you come on over and we can, we can go ahead and discuss it as we overlook the golf course about, you know, how you can help me win?" I mean, the bottom line is- Wow, the golf course flex...
3:38
the bottom line is when you have a team that is favored, uh, by 24 points, they win a little over, just over 99% of the time. When you go north of 24, it's well over 99%.
3:51
So if you can lay 99 to win a dollar today on Arizona and Florida, I'll be doing it, and if you can lay 50 to win a dollar on Iowa State today, I'll be doing it. And you've adjusted it from 23 points to 24 and a half?
4:05
Famously, because I lost- Slight adjustment... I, you know, you know what? I, I lost Purdue. Yeah. And I, and I'm the first to... People are like, "Fezzik doesn't learn." I'm... I get it.
4:14
I, I made a bad bet, and the reason I made a bad bet, for several reason, but p- but the num- the primary reason is that Purdue was only laying 22 and a half. So it was kind of on the cusp of where- Mm-hmm...
4:25
if you had a Duke, Siena type of game, you know what? When you're laying 28, you've got more of a margin for error, obviously, than when you're laying 22 and a half.
4:34
I mean, and that ultimately was the difference in the Duke game. I mean, they were f- they were dan- it, we're in the danger zone, but, um, it's been three years. I'm- It's been three years. Three years.
4:43
And I've lost one of these things. And they, and they still bring it [laughs] up. And I'm almost broke even. Per- Purdue lose it, a fairly Dickinson. Um, I'm glad you got home.
4:52
I am also, if I'm being honest, I am also, I also giggle just a little bit when I think of you going, "Oh dear." [laughs] Just as you watch it. But I'm glad you got home nonetheless. I, I got, I got GRP wins- Yeah...
5:02
and he's like, literally, it's funny, criticizing how stupid I am, and then he bets on the second half, he bets after, um, Howard makes like a zillion three-pointers in the first half against Michigan- Yeah...
5:12
and he bets Howard at 40 to 1 in the s- to, to win the game at halftime. And it's like literally I'm getting flack from a guy that's making a 40 to 1 bet on something that should be 300 to 1. Okay, fine.
5:24
Steve Fezzik, everybody. Coming in hot. All right, what about this question from MMA Bottlehead? Uh, y- "You were in the Best of It documentary famously. Allan Boston was, uh, featured in that documentary.
5:33
You were about 30 to 40 pounds heavier," he says. "How did you lose so much weight?" I think I was featured on Life on the Line, and Allan Boston was in The Best of It, so we were in different- Oh, you were Life o- okay.
5:42
Yeah. But, but, but they're- Okay... but they're both outstanding, you know, to go ahead and list. My favorite is when Allan is in his upscale, um, Summerlin neighborhood walking his Great Danes without a leash. Yes.
5:52
And I'm like, and I'm thinking to myself- Yes... "Well, boy, when Allan left that neighborhood, I bet, I bet his neighbors were very upset with their small children.
5:58
Oh, that, that dude with the Gor- with the Great Danes [laughs] that he takes out. That's a shame he's not in my neighborhood anymore. Oh dear." [laughs] Um, sorry, Allan. Put a leash on your dog, though.
6:08
Uh, but- There, there's a segue. The walking Alan is doing is excellent, and Alan's in great shape, obviously.
6:16
And I get the little, um, on my phone, it tracks my steps, and if you can walk four miles a day and drink half a gallon, like those, of water a day- Pound water is Stevie's phrase... pound water.
6:30
You know, the, the beauty of walking four miles a day is literally that's an hour and a half that you're not eating and you're not drinking. And don't drink Coke. Stop drinking regular Coke.
6:40
I, I would say if there was a go-to, you know, that that absolutely would be the way to go. Now, obviously, intermittent fasting, don't eat until the sun goes down.
6:49
It's probably even better- Intermit- Don't eat after the sun goes down. Intermittent fasting really helps. You don't need to eat- Yeah... three meals a day. The three meals a day is a killer.
6:57
I- if you're gonna eat three meals a day, you're going to be fat. The, the food pyramid was the biggest lie told to us, right, as kids.
7:04
The food pyramid, uh, yes, three meals a day, three square meals a day kind of thing is, is... Intermittent, no doctor will tell you intermittent fast- intermittent fasting is bad. Yeah.
7:13
Where you'll have disagreements on lots of stuff. Brought to you by Bob Evans and McDonald's Breakfast. [laughs] Have three meals a day. Yeah. One, one more question from a- Mm-hmm...
7:20
from a listener before we get to what you wanna talk about. John B. said earlier, he said, "Could you please weigh in how to bet games with sites promoting early payouts on money line bets?
7:28
If a team is up 10, you're paid out as a win." Uh, that would seem a little weird there at the end. He says, "What about up 10 early payout promos? Curious best way to play those."
7:39
I'm, I'm sure that's a money line bet, right? If your team goes, goes up 10. It's, I mean, it's, it's, it's a great bonus because, I mean, [laughs] North Carolina. Hey, by the way, wellness check on Dr. Bob. Oh, dear.
7:50
Oh, well, let's- North Carolina... oh, well let's talk about that. Up 19. No good. South Carolina. So what should Dr. Bob have gone yesterday? Four and one. And what did he end up? Two and three.
7:59
'Cause he had Louisville and Carolina. Yes, Louisville, and he, and he gave it out minus the four and a half. Yeah. And, and Carolina a roughly pick 'em.
8:07
You know, but, but what, the one thing that I b- I've been arguing with Dr. Bob with for years, a- is that, and let's assume he'll hit 55% of his plays. I don't want the hate mail that he's gonna hit more.
8:17
I don't want the hate mail that he's gonna hit less. Let's just assume 55%, people. That means he's gonna have, for every 100 plays, he's gonna have 55 games in the end game that should win and 45 that should lose.
8:29
Well, guess what? It's not gonna even out. Dr. Bob always writes, "It's going to even out." Well, one, it's not gonna even out because he's gonna have 11 bad beats for every nine lucky wins. Right.
8:38
'Cause he's got more winners. But more importantly, and this one I, I, I don't understand why he does this every year, he's always like, "I'm so unlucky in overtime. Woe is me. I'm so unlucky."
8:48
Well, you p- you play more unders [laughs]- Yeah... than overs. Yeah. They don't call it under time. [laughs] They do not.
8:55
I mean, overtime has cost me, I mean, easily millions of dollars over my, my career because I bet way more unders. Way more unders. Yeah.
9:02
By the way, explain to folks, 'cause you said something there and I don't want it to go by 'cause I love this, 'cause I've always believed this, but you articulate it better.
9:08
I always say that things do not break even on the, on the, the ones that could go either way, if you are a really good bettor like Bob, they don't, they don't even out. Of course. Why?
9:18
Be- because you've got more games that should win than games that should lose, and so you're, you, you have a bigger sample size of, of games you can get train wrecked on.
9:27
Now, poker players understand this totally, because poker players get it in good so many times.
9:33
They've got a set, three of a kind, their opponent has a flush draw, they're gonna win 63% of the time or whatever, and then they get train wrecked on the river over and over and over again.
9:44
So, like, like, a great poker player, like, finds himself, like, taking vicious bad beat after bad beat almost on a nightly basis because he's getting it in good. Right. And Dr.
9:55
Bob as a sports bettor is getting it in good much more often than getting it in bad. But why does that explain? So most sports bettors listening to this are not gonna accept that explanation though.
10:03
So, but why does it, why does it not even out on the coin flip w- and results?
10:08
Be- be- because I, if I bet 1,000 games, I'm about to win 550 of them, and I'm about to lose 450 of them, so I've got a much, I've got 100 extra games b- basically- I, I see...
10:19
that can go, that can go south [laughs] on me. Okay. 'Cause 450 and the 450, you'll be break even as far as good and bad luck, but then I got 100 extra winners, and of that 100, maybe 15 or 20 of them I'm gonna lose.
10:30
I have always felt this way. If you're good at what, what you're doing, it does not even out.
10:34
Um, let's talk about numbers, how critical they are during the NCAA tournament, um, which is, you think is, is really good to bet.
10:42
You're not one of these people that necessarily comes in to say conference week is better than the NCAA tournament. Duke was minus 17. Michigan was minus 17 second, these are second half numbers.
10:50
Vanderbilt was minus seven second half. All three landed right on the number. Yeah. Now, conference is better to bet for various reasons.
10:57
However, I would argue the NCAA tournament for getting rogue numbers on underdogs is the bestest, because you just brought up three great examples where Duke is laying 16 and a half to 17, as is Michigan. All right?
11:09
Both are available. If you bet that second half and you had outs and you bet on Duke it, or Michigan, you won. If you bet on Howard or Siena, you won because there are plus 17 and a halves that were available as well.
11:23
Now, does that happen during the regular season? No. There's not enough action that's being bet. There's not enough liquidity in the marketplace.
11:30
But with so many places, you know, dealing so many different numbers and looking, and the sports books looking to balance, inevitably all it takes is one baccarat player to, like, stumble over and say, "I want 10,000 on Michigan minus 17."
11:43
You won all three on the dog? All three. Stevie Fezzik. So did the Crack Man. @FezzikSports. Follow at your own peril. More with Steve on the other side on The Numbers Game.
11:51
Let me get your attention real quick, podcast listeners. It's March, which means the madness is officially upon us, of course, and the folks at VSiN have really gone crazy with this one.
12:00
I'm being told right now, in my earpiece, being told that for just $29.99 you can get unlimited access to VSiN Pro through May 1st.
12:08
I'm talking picks throughout the tournament, public betting data for every single game, plus sharp tools, projections, articles, and more. Never sleep on And More. Just click the link in the description to get started.
12:18
It's March, baby. All right, now back to the show. [upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:36
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12:46
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12:55
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13:03
Use code VSiNMM, as in March Madness, and start winning King of March only on Prophet X. Uh, this is, uh, we get tweets on, uh, beating the book.
13:13
Mike Rouse, "FanDuel has an early payout if your team goes up by 10-plus points. Few people had Siena at 55 to one on the money line and it paid out once they went up by 10." Is that right? Wow.
13:23
Uh, NCI 95 gambler, "Just so you guys know, uh, those early payouts you guys are talking about, went up 10 points or so on college basketball, are limited," oh, "to 10 to $25 max bets, hence they are meant for recreational gamblers," meaning to myself.
13:36
50 to one, that doesn't sound recreational to me, though. [laughs] Yeah, but that, there's the, there's the catch. There's always something, right? Mm-hmm. Uh, let's see. So many this morning. Y'all are the best.
13:46
Moneygun Guz, our guy from Millions, he says, "What's this? The NFL's preparing to hire replacement officials for 2026 due to stalled contract negotiation.
13:54
I don't wanna be dramatic, but if this happens, I'm not sure I'll be in football contests this coming season." Gran- uh, Green Bay versus Seattle, back in the day in the end zone. Oh, you remember that.
14:03
Now, Moneygun Guns- Golden Tate, huh?
14:05
Finished top 20 Circa Millions, was in top five most of the year, and as sure as the sun gets up tomorrow, I don't care if they have to take the waitresses from the Circus Swim and put them as officials.
14:18
[laughs] Moneygun Guns, you need survivor, and you need Millions, and you're gonna take your little thumb [laughs] and you're gonna hit submit, and you're gonna be in all the contests regardless of whether they're scab scrub officials or good officials.
14:31
Come on, now.
14:32
You know, every once in a while I think this guy right over here, Steve Fezzik, is a bit of a robot with a, uh, actuarial brain that can't be, uh, can't be brought into the real world, but you an ex- you expressed an actual emotion which I was shocked to hear from you, which is you're actually sad because after today specifically, but certainly after the weekend, it's kind of the end of college basketball.
14:51
You're bummed. I am. You have emotion. It, because really Sunday is the last day of college basketball.
14:57
After that, I, I mean, I know we still got the NIT and the Crown Tournament comes to Vegas April 1st, but, uh, if there's only 16 teams left alive, do-do-do-do-do, that's 15 games left.
15:10
And we're used to having like 100 games on Saturday. That's way too much. I can't process all of it, but boy, I gotta tell you, as far as the perfect, perfect schedule, it really is today- Yeah...
15:20
and yesterday where you have- Yes... four games going concurrently. It's great. You can follow them all. And I gotta, you know, shout out to the great Todd Wisniew.
15:28
Gosh, I was lazy at the end of the day and I missed two winners. So Todd jumps on the Houston game, I believe, to go under. I believe he did. Um, if he didn't, eh. He, uh, I know he was on the Georgia game over, so St.
15:41
Louis was up like almost 20 against Georgia at half time. Georgia hasn't- But get this- Georgia hasn't, uh, won a tournament game since 2002. I, um, that was just a absolute butt-kicking.
15:52
We talk about conferences, the West Coast Conference struggling. Boy, this, what's this? The Atlantic 10. All right, VCU, somewhat of a miraculous win. Nothing fluky about that St. Louis win, and what's this?
16:03
The Dayton Flyers, Marion's Pizza, goes into Butler, wins out right. Um, so- That's right... the A10 is- A10 look good... looking good, yes.
16:11
You agree with me though, 'cause, uh, I, I have Santa Clara plus the points, but in survivor, in my rebuy entry, I took [laughs] Kentucky 'cause after seeing, uh, Gonzaga, but really St.
16:21
Mary's yesterday, I'm like, "Ooh, I don't know about the West Coast Conference." You know, it's funny because the West Coast Conference, obviously two horrendous... Now, St.
16:27
Mary's best player was, had a, um, an illness and barely played, so that was- Yes... uh, and that's a big reason to follow. These teams are so, um, uh, they really rely on specific players.
16:39
North Carolina being without a guard really hurt them as well. But, um, eh, I was all stoked. The good doctor was on Santa Clara. It made a lot of sense. I like the way Santa Clara's smacked around St.
16:49
Mary's in the West Coast Conference tournament. I'm ready to like fire on them, and then after watching [laughs] Gonzaga and St. Mary's just completely lay eggs, it's... I will use a line from Rocky, um, II, all right?
17:01
And so Apollo Creed's manager is, they're talking about who, uh, Apollo should fight next, and he's like, "That first fight against that Rocky dude, you beat on him like no one you ever beat on before, and the man kept coming.
17:15
We don't need this kind of trouble." [laughs] All right? And my, my take on Santa Clara is I, I, I watched the West Coast Conference teams. I don't need this kind of trouble. You don't wanna be involved. Don't.
17:25
You know what? I can get just as much money betting on the next five- [laughs]... you know, contenders here. Yeah. We're gonna avoid this Rocky game. Yes.
17:32
If, if Santa Clara, Kentucky was in the middle of a college basketball Saturday, would you gravitate towards it at all? Not after what I just saw. You, you bring up a good point, though. Injuries obviously
17:42
really, right, you know, obviously we, we think of injuries in other sports mainly, but college basketball, these are kids. They're, they're great shape. We don't usually think about like a spate of injuries.
17:51
It feels like there's more injuries this year than ever before.
17:53
And even at the top, so just two weeks ago, we were like, "Oh, these number ones are infallible," and now we're thinking, you know, Michigan loses their sixth-man guy. Duke- But is that an overreaction after two games?
18:05
Well, Duke is injured. Duke is injured. That's the thing. All right. So the key is- Yeah... I think, um, the fact that Michigan has been scuffling, you know, for, you know, their last five games.
18:15
R- frankly, they've, haven't been, I mean, they were an NBA team back in November when they're beating good teams by 30. Yes, they were. So- And by 40. Yeah... I mean, D- Duke is kind of a linear regression.
18:26
Michigan has been like regressing throughout the year, and I do think it's a concern. You are having a- You know, through one day anyway. You're having a, you're having a darn good college basketball tournament so far.
18:36
But your last 30 days of college hoops, you're up 45 units. Is that true? How bad am I, Gil, that- Wait, wait, wait, stop there. Let me answer that. No, go ahead. Sorry, go ahead. [laughs] Go ahead. I, um, how bad am I?
18:48
I'm having an epic great March, and I'm still down 30 units since 1/1/2025. Mm-hmm. All right? Yeah. So, um, so this is, this is what's everything that's wrong with the tout business.
19:01
It would be easy for me to beat my chest, "I'm up 60-plus units just the last 32 days, and, like, 66 units since the start of the year." Yeah, but I had a terrible 2025. So don't listen to the hype.
19:13
All that matters is, like, the three-year and the five-year record- That's right... on all plays. Everything else is just nonsense. Stop buying games of the year from people who are on a documented eight-and-one run.
19:25
It's really an eight-and-two run, by the way. [laughs] Um, who cares? That's just- Feels like-... random variance... feels like someone specifically is annoying you, Steve, if I, if I know you well enough.
19:34
No names, but- No names at all... feels, feels like that. Nope. Um, okay. [laughs] You- this, this is in- this is not a controversial thing, but I think it's worth noting.
19:44
While this is happening, so the w- the women's tournament is, is about to go full effect, right? It's, it's a UConn invitational, some people think. Um, others do not. Gotta bet them on the money line.
19:55
[laughs] I guess you probably will.
19:56
[laughs] You, you feel like, though, if, if you had, if you had women's basket- college women's basketball acumen, though, you're guessing that those lines are way softer, and there's, there's stuff to be exploited there.
20:08
I know. I'm, and maybe it's funny because I, I, I, I texted Doug, and he must be busy. I'm like, "Hey, who do we like in the women's tournament?" He is, uh, Doug, still waiting to hear from you, by the way.
20:17
Um, [laughs] but, but, um, the, I am certain there's lines that are off by five-plus points. Because, like, in St. Mary's, when their best player is sick and he's out, the market gets wind of it, right?
20:28
And during the live wagering- Yeah... like, you see the algorithms get adjusted. Maybe not enough. I'm sure that doesn't happen in the women's tournament.
20:36
I remember I was watching a game, like Texas A&M's, um, their second-best player, she goes down with a hor- with a horrible leg injury, and it's like, like, no one's paying attention to that.
20:45
So this is, like, controversial because Circa deals the women's lines. You got Bookmaker deals. Enough places deal the women's tournament, if you did nothing but focus on the women's tournament from this point forward,
20:58
I, I refuse to believe that you would lose. You'd win every year because there would be game after game where you'd just say, "That, that line is just completely off." Now, I get it.
21:06
Someone out there's like, "Well, Steve, the St. Louis line was completely off yesterday," so but those games are few and far between. Uh, Tyler Shoemaker, our own Tyler Shoemaker, great at women's college basketball.
21:16
You can see all his stuff at vsin.com. He's als- obviously on throughout the day on the network, different shows, uh, with his T-Shoo index. So he's a guy to follow for, uh, women's college hoops.
21:26
Where, take me through your day yesterday and today. So you wake up in the morning. Are you making bets before the first tip-off of the day? Yeah, so I woke up- And then where do you end up? I woke up.
21:36
Um, I get a, I do the Dr. Bob, um, releases at 7:00 AM. Mm-hmm. All right?
21:41
And what, every Monday, he gives out a play, and then famously, there's some books out there that are calling, "These are the sharp syndicate plays that we are, we are receiving." Oh, God. No, they're just Dr. Bob. Yeah.
21:51
Um, Dr. Bob- It's just Dr. Bob... moves the market more than every other- Why won't they just say it's just Dr. Bob's plays? Why won't anybody say this out loud? I, I, I, they either are incompetent or dishonest or both.
22:02
I might bet the parlay. Mm-hmm. Uh, but the, um, so I, I, then I, I rocketed down to the Wynn because the Wynn had some off numbers. I lost a little bit. I play- Wow, you rocketed down there. Wow. Da, da, da, da.
22:13
I got my helicopter- Yeah... and I went down to the Wynn. Yeah, yeah.
22:15
I love the Wynn so much, and so I bet some rogue first-half unders, and I think I went, like, five and six playing them, so I didn't, I did not do well there. Ran into a really nice couple. They were very complimentary.
22:27
Um, uh, you know, down there, had a great talk about the industry. I'm like, "I gotta go. I gotta go." [laughs] I, "Wish Nev's gonna start giving out live plays," and- It'll... Really nice people. "I gotta go."
22:36
I gotta go. So I, I, I get my coffee. I get my old fashioned. [laughs] Um, light on the alcohol, and I drive, I drive back home, and then I'm basically just live wagering and betting halftime.
22:47
And part, a big part of live wagering is betting the halftime, so- Oh, you didn't go watch any of the South Point yesterday? No, I did not, but, but- You highly recommend it. Oh, I, you know, I love the South.
22:56
I watched the Super Bowl at the South Point. It's like the one game, like the second half, I'm, I like to just watch the Super Bowl in a sportsbook. I miss it. I miss being in a sportsbook. Now, Todd is great with it.
23:04
He's got his multiple phones, and he's navigating. Sure. But I'm, like, too old and stupid to do that. I mean, I need to have my three monitors.
23:11
You know, I've got my, my Don Best screen does show the lines that are at Circa and, and, and other places, and because it's speed. It's oftentimes it's speed, getting to the, the, the best number first. Okay.
23:21
More with Fezzik on the other side. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:36
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23:47
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24:07
That's juice, like orange juice, Reel, R-E-E-L, Juice Reel. [laughs] As always, I appreciate the clarification on Juice, Juice Reel. Thank you very much. You know this audience. Uh, we get tweets made to the book.
24:21
Always appreciate it. This is from, uh, AyaOyaS69, who says, "We need to add Georgia to the no-bet list. Did you peek at Georgia State line? That's pure comedy." Georgia, I, I said it quickly, but I'll say it again.
24:33
University of Georgia has not won an NCAA tournament basketball game since 2002 So congratulations, by the way, Nebraska with their win yesterday. They finally get off the schneid.
24:42
Uh, historically, they are the last power conference to have not won a NCAA tournament game. They finally do that yesterday after going 0-8 previously. But Georgia now, f- since 2002, not a single victory.
24:54
Uh, LosVegas514, "Yo, RIP Chuck Norris." Chuck Norris has passed away this morning. No. "What's your favorite Chuck Norris movie?" he says, he asks. They're all the same. It's like REO Speedwagon.
25:05
[laughs] Like REO Speedwagon. Sure. Every song sounds the same. What's your, what's your favorite REO Speedwagon song? Heard it from a friend who- [laughs] REO Speedwagon song...
25:11
heard it from another that Chuck Norris is beating up the bad guys. [laughs] Yeah. Ladies and gentlemen, I did not, I did not have the Fezzik singing REO Speedwagon kitty howl today.
25:19
Torch D: "The one to put the sand in your panties. When betting the dogs in the quick markets, is it better to bet them first to 10 or first to 15?" Well, that's a layup.
25:28
First to 10, obviously, again, if you have the lesser talent, quote-unquote, the small sample size is, is to your benefit. Now, your price won't be as high, right?
25:36
Your bang for your buck won't be, but that's clearly the answer to that. Y- you know, yeah, clearly, and obviously, you know, f- first to 20 is, a- and first to 30 becomes more like a first-half money line bet.
25:46
So, um, but sh- I'm sure there's somebody listening that, like, clock, he, he, he actually pays attention to, like, who's tipping, you know, for the, for, for the opening tip, and which teams are more likely they have, like, a, a webanyata so they can win the opening tip and get the ball first.
26:01
Yeah. 'Cause on a race to 10, it's gotta be very significant to start with the first possession. I mean, that's- Yeah... that's a significant edge. We were with Kraken here yesterday. We were sweating out one of these.
26:10
Or I wasn't, but the crew, the whole crew had. What was that team? Was it nine to nine yesterday, guys? Troy. Tro- Troy, that's right. And a roar goes from the- And a roar goes crazy It's like, "What, what happened?"
26:19
[laughs] Speaking of that, basically 24 hours later, a much more straggling crowd out here on a Friday than once yesterday. What, did they, A, lose all their money, B, drunk and are hungover, right- [laughs]...
26:32
or C, are, uh, sleeping because they were in the sun all day? All of the above. Yes. [laughs] D, I gotta tell you, glorious March Madness.
26:40
Now, the, the- they'll hype the Super Bowl, but it's, it's these first two days of March Madness when get the weather cooperates. To- it's gonna be 98 degrees today in Vegas. Yeah. That Stadium Swim- Whoo...
26:53
over under, um, com- combination of alcohol and, and the heat, uh, over under one and a half trips to the emergency room. Here's the thing- No one w- no one will die, but yes... here, here's the thing with Stadium Swim.
27:04
I love Derek, and I love the whole concept. It's awesome.
27:06
But when Wishnev was here last week, it was like 74 degrees, and we went out there for, like, 15 minutes, and it was brutal in the Stadium Swim sort of cocoon, if you will.
27:17
When it gets to this temperature, what is it like out there? It must be ridiculous. Well, someone needs to tell Toddy that he's allowed to wear a swimsuit. You see, thus- No, don't tell him that... the swim aspect.
27:27
Don't tell him. Todd- Don't tell him that... when the weather is hot- No... you can jump in the refreshing, cool- No, don't tell him that...
27:32
water, and that will prevent this discomfort of sweating through three layers of clothing that you're wearing. Back to the, uh, Race to 10. You said off it you wanted to throw Kelly under the bus. Did you wanna do that?
27:44
Uh, no. Okay. Good answer. Why? Kelly was having fun betting them. He went three and O this time. You, you know, I, a- actually, I'm not fun adverse.
27:53
I think, I think one of the, uh, I- You, dude, you're the most fun adverse guy I know in my life.
27:57
I, I bet, I, i- i- if you bet t- five to $10, like, on all of this, like, first to 10 along with every game all year long, you would learn so much more about these games because all it takes is to have a tiny, tiny piece, and I famously talk about season wins.
28:12
Bet every MLB team, you know? Yeah, yeah. Boom. Bet the Colorado Rockies over 55 and a half. Everyone has told me to make this bet. I refuse to make it, but you know I'm gonna bet $10 on it.
28:21
You don't think you're fun adverse?
28:23
If we make, if any of us in the group chat, like, makes a bet that we know you're gonna disapprove of, we go to a sidebar like, "Dad, Dad will not like this bet, but I'm about to do this right over here."
28:30
We've, uh- You know, it's funny, I owe, I owe, I owe Will Hill money, and he's like, "Oh, you know, when can you send this over to me, Stevie?" And, yeah, yeah, and, and obviously I'm so busy with...
28:37
And I'm just like, "I'm busy. Leave me alone. Talk to me next week, Will." Fred- Sorry.
28:42
Fred Leonards on Twitter, he says, "Interesting thought about West Coast n- uh, West Coast Conference not looking good and pivoting into Kentucky for survivor.
28:48
Would you also consider going for the middle with Kentucky minus three being you have Santa Clara plus four in pocket?" No, I'm happy where I am.
28:55
I'll take Kentucky on surv- survivor, and I'll, and I have my plus four bet. You know, this is actually a great question. Yeah. All right? And here's why.
29:03
Because what I want, a minus three and a plus four, laying minus 110 in each direction on that portfolio, and it turns out the, the standard response would be, "Well, no, it's just a one point middle on the side.
29:19
It's just not quite good enough." But now it's, it's, it's the time where the numbers are tighter, right? Yeah.
29:23
So it's really, really close because a lot of people believe you should buy onto the three, you know, pay the 10 cents.
29:29
Well, if I'm w- i- if that was indeed the answer, then the, a one point middle would be profitable to lay two and a half to take plus three and a half or to lay three and to take four.
29:38
Um, so it's basically if you wanted to get out of a plus four bet and lay minus three and you're laying minus 110, I think you're gonna break even in the long run basically.
29:47
JohnnyBeast on Twitter corroborates the instinct on the women's tournament.
29:51
He says, "For women's NCAA last year, DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel, Bookmaker, they'd be off four to five points pregame for spread and/or total. Example, UConn minus seven and a half, Duke plus 12 over 143, under 148."
30:06
Huh? What? Oh, from book to book I guess he's saying. "Would stay like that in game, middles all day. Would have to hit one out of 20 to break even. Some days I'd hit half of them or more."
30:15
And again, you don't have to just go for the middle. You can say, "Oh, I'm gonna bet 500 under that against the Dumbo book, and I'll bet 200 over against the sharp book," right?
30:24
That, like, you can bet more against the book that's catering to the casual bettors. Yes. And JasonH11 about Chuck Norris says, "Chuck Norris didn't die. He just allowed everyone else to live." Well said.
30:34
All right, uh, off sports betting for one second, Boo, 'cause before you go, we always like to get your thoughts on this kind of thing. Uh, you were, I guess you were in a casino yesterday.
30:43
You're in a casino every day, Steve Fezzik is. What is your, what's your instinct on who's sh- how many people out of 500, in your opinion, are sharp? Gamblers? Gamblers. Generally speaking, gamblers. One.
31:00
One out of 500? Yes. What made you solidify this thought? Uh, as I drive into the strip, I drive past the M Resort and the South Point.
31:08
Now, I love the South Point, so oftentimes I'll just go in, like, here's the South Point, look how pretty this is. Like- It's very nice. Colorful...
31:14
I, I, I color-coded and I, and I, and I, and I, and I use my, my markers for who likes what, and guess what? There's all kinds of conflicts.
31:20
Like, right at the very first game, I got yellow for Akron, I think that's Alan Boston, and I got green for Dr. Bob's Texas Tech. What am I gonna do with that?
31:28
Um, but the, the, the bottom line is, as I'm walking along, the things that I see, you've got, like, like, the T-bones in Colorado, the World Advantage slot player guy, super sharp, and, and the Frank B's.
31:40
But for every one of them, there's 500 that are trusting their instincts. They say trust your instincts. Don't trust your instincts. They have no idea what they're doing.
31:48
And just like, like the other night, I saw at a blackjack table, I saw someone double for less with an ace two against a dealer four. Okay?
31:56
Now, ace- Is, is it worse in blackjack than anything 'cause it's so easily viewable? Yes. Yeah.
32:01
So, so, so, but, like, like, for, for me, like, like, how can someone not realize, well, people are like, "Well, ace two against a four is a really close play whether you double or not," so but the person doubled for less, so they had like a $200 bet, and then they put $50 up, and they said, "I'm gonna double down for less," all right?
32:16
But now think about this. They are screwing themselves so bad because they're restricting themselves to one card. So if you double the ace two, [laughs] and you get a three, now you gotta stand on six, okay?
32:27
So it's, it just should be, like, the most intuitively obvious thing that you would never double for less on a hand like that.
32:34
I think what's interesting about this to me is let's, okay, whatever the number is, you say it's one out of 500, is it, is it amazing to you that the drop-off is so dramatic?
32:44
In other words, there's not this sort of sliding scale. It feels like it just goes, here's the sharp guy, everybody else you think is just ridiculously dumb. It's pretty much that way when it comes to slots. All right?
32:56
Yeah. Now, in blackjack, there is a middle class, if you will. Right. There is a, a middle class of folks that pretty much have the basic strategy card memorized, or they bring it to the table and they follow it.
33:07
So to be fair, on the blackjack side, or craps, people are taking their odds, you know, not betting the hard ways and everything else.
33:14
But when it comes to just slot, the, the, the, I mean, the, the edges are, like, 15%, 18% to the house, just randomly playing slot machines.
33:23
So when you see someone playing those slots, I mean, there's a few people there chasing the mini jackpots, and they actually have an edge in slots. Yeah.
33:30
But everyone else is just four standard deviations below, you know? So here's the, here's the million-dollar question to close: Where does sports betting stand on this? Where, where, where is that?
33:39
Is it more bla- That's a great, you know what? Is it more slots, or is it more the other stuff? I think it's the exception to the rule.
33:43
I really think sports betting is much more of a, of, of, of a bell curve rather than just two different distributions of really bad and really good.
33:52
I think there's a lot of sports bettors that are excellent that are just good enough to just barely eke out a profit or just barely lose, and that's why they need to gravitate to Minus 105 and reduced vigs, because they'll literally go from a break-even player to a player that is kicking you know what.
34:08
I don't know what, Steve. Would you like to share what you mean by that? I don't wanna say that, one of those words that you get angry at. [laughs] Good instinct.
34:15
Steve Fezzik, ladies and gentlemen, as the games are, oh, about a half an hour away from tipping off. Slow it down. Unders today. Fezzik Sports at your own peril on Twitter. Thank you, Steve. Coming back.
34:25
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:41
Numbers Game, brought to you by Prophet X. Have I mentioned that before? And they're making March Madness about more than just your bracket. It's King of March, and there are free trips worth up to $10,000 on the line.
34:51
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35:07
Sign up with promo code VSiNMM, as in March Madness, and compete to become the King of March, only on Prophet X. Back in his chair, Kelly Bedlam, everybody. How was your, uh, your exile for three segments? You okay?
35:20
Oh, it was good, man. Yeah? Yeah. Chatted it up with the crew, watched some golf.
35:24
So the, the Fezzik thing was he was gonna th- he was going to, his words, "throw you under the bus" because he [laughs] he's such a Fezzik thing. He's just, he's so much fun. Kelly, Kelly- Just a kick of fun...
35:35
the, the guy who says that he is not averse to fun, right, has a issue with...
35:39
Kelly was just making these gag bets on the f- on the Race to Ten, which by the way, I think the crew's about to do for the first tip-off here again, if I'm not mistaken.
35:46
Oh, I, I, I think we're all loaded up again back there. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I know you guys, you guys are ready to go. Troy, Troy worked out well. Yeah. Loaded.
35:49
They said they're locked and loaded on the, on the dog coming up here. Yeah, there you go.
35:52
Um, but he could not, this is just how his brain works, which is fascinating, the man who says he's not averse to fun, you're having fun, and he's like, "Did Kelly really research Northern Iowa and all their- You don't know their first half efficiency.
36:05
You don't know who, hey- They can have-... what, what's the t- the number of tips won for that team? Yeah, I don't know anything. You know what else I know, Steve?
36:12
Is that I watched a whole lot of college basketball games yesterday with 19-year-old kids blowing easy layups and missing free throws, too, so.
36:19
I love it because there's also a percentage of the audience that'll say to us, "You guys aren't allowed to make any non-serious bets ever." Yeah, so I guess- Guess what? He's a human being, Kelly Bedlam.
36:28
Let him be a human. Yeah, also me, I, I, I think me and you are very transparent with where our money lies. Yes. I mean, this is, my, my college basketball day yesterday was sick. Guess what?
36:39
It was about a break-even day with two NBA losses. [laughs] We get tweet-speeding the book. Uh, Uncle Bush says, "Did Fezzik just say he owed Will Hill money? Is Will gonna have to go all Stewie Griffin on Steve?
36:52
'Why you ducking me, man?'" Yeah, Steve was saying he got paid off on something that he had Will involved in, and of course Fezzik is, just got paid himself. Um,
37:02
Johnny Vegas, "Since you're asking Fez percentages, ask him what percent of men in the casino wash their hands after. I'm at casinos every weekend and it's disturbing how many do not. I almost wanna call them out."
37:11
That's terrible. I, I actually asked him this question off air so that we could get Fezzik's answer. Fezzik said he believes 9 out of 10 do wash their hands. However, asterisk,
37:21
he said to that 9 of 10, he says there is a group of that nine, his percentage was unclear, that performatively go to the sink, use the water, but not the soap.
37:34
I think that's a- Dude, people are animals I, I actually love this conversation. Oh, my God. I think he's right. Yeah. I think that's a sub 10%, though, so if we're going out at 10, I don't- Oh...
37:43
even think we can count it up to one. But, like, it's, it's really bad. I mean, I'm gonna go 6 out of 10. Jesus, Murphy. W- uh, 6 out, 6 out of 10 guys actually wash their hands.
37:54
If they're, if they are playing the casinos will actually wash their hands after. Animals. Just awful. All right, uh, Santa Clara, Kentucky. Midwest 10-7 game, which we've been talking about on and off this morning.
38:04
That's about to tip off. That's gonna tip off 12:15 Eastern, 9:15 Pacific, so, uh, what's that? 27 minutes from now. That's the first game to tip off, and then we're gonna have another one here in the last hour.
38:14
Akron and Texas Tech, the 512 game in the Midwest. That's gonna tip off at, uh, 12:40 Eastern, 9:40 Pacific. Same sort of schedule as yesterday. The schedule gets annoying on the weekend. Round of 32.
38:25
Get ready for the annoying schedule tomorrow and, and the next day, where the games are staggered so poorly.
38:30
Man, there were, there were a couple lulls yesterday that I, like, I didn't remember either, like, on the first- There's a, there's a middle of the day- Yeah... there's a middle of the day halftime kind of thing.
38:39
Yeah, there was like a solid 45 minutes almost where it was lack of action. Well, and then when the last four games all kind of suck. Yeah. I mean, Gonzaga, Kennesaw State was mildly competitive, I guess. Um, yeah.
38:50
Some three and a halves- There's that... hit the board for Kentucky. So Kentucky's a three-point favorite, some three and a halves hit the board. So this, these two games have massive survivor implications for me.
38:59
Oh, we've got, and Akron's taking money. This is six and a half, seven. Seven and a half's completely gone off my board.
39:05
This is, so this is the part where we are too close to the sun, 'cause we've been living with this for the whole week. Akron's at a half. We're gonna bet this. We bet it.
39:13
And now, all of a sudden, like right, right the last hour before game time, people are like, "Wait, they're seven and a half?" Mm-hmm. Well, they're, they, we- this hit, like- Yeah... eights yesterday.
39:21
We were s- eight and a half, eight and a half yesterday. At circa eight and a half, we're down to seven on that game. So that's- So yeah, Akron money coming in So those are moving.
39:29
The first two games of the day, I got Kentucky on my rebuy entry. I got Akron, as you do, on, uh, one of our living entries from the start here in, in Survivor.
39:38
Akron going up against the JT Toppin-less Texas Tech Red Raiders. And you know what, Gil? Christian Anderson playing. As this, uh, as Akron takes money- Mm-hmm...
39:46
full game, that also means I'm gonna get CLV in the first to 10 with Akron, 'cause that number's gonna be going down, too. Wow. How about that, Stevie? Christian Anderson says he's close to 100%. He's a go.
39:59
No Toppin, obviously, though, for Texas Tech. Um, yes, so you guys, you and the crew, are on both dogs here, race to 10? I can't speak for the crew. Oh. Maybe I can, but I won't. Yeah. I'll speak for myself.
40:11
They're on it. I'm on Santa Clara, yes, and I'm on Akron. Your numbers again are? Well, you know what this is, uh, let's see, plus 105 Santa Clara, plus 140.
40:19
I, I did hear, was it off air Steve was talking about the prices and straddle this- Yes... yeah, okay. Yes. So, like, it is- The straddle's not good... ab- no, he is 100% right.
40:27
This is where I'm gonna, I will ab- another great shout-out for Circa, 'cause this was, I was back there yesterday actually while Crack was on, and I was kind of starting to price shop these first to 10s.
40:38
It wasn't even close. Circa had the be- best price for every one that I looked at. They did. Yeah. Okay. So theirs is less than what most books are doing.
40:46
This has made you more excited about college basketball than anything. Uh, you know, you know what, you know what's so great about it?
40:50
I mean, I know everybody has these, whether it's, like, the first inning yes no bets or anything. I just don't do most, most... Like, NBA, I'm a big full game bettor.
40:59
I like the full, I like my handicap to play out entirely, right?
41:02
I'll dabble with some first round leaders in golf, but even golf, I'm mainly let- I'm w- counting on the whole tournament to play out for the b- uh, my biggest bets, right?
41:10
Even round by round bets are not nearly as big in size, 'cause I'd rather have the entire time of the tournament play out. That's how I'm handicapping it.
41:18
Um, so this is, yeah, Gil, th- like, I don't do much like this, but it is fun when, uh, when, when, when one of those hits and you're like, "I don't care for the rest of the game."
41:26
Like, I don't, whatever the result is after this, I don't care. Brian Young, Notorious Guns, "Epic end of the, uh, week rant by Kelly about Fezzik and college basketball. Enjoy the games today, gents." Oh, we will.
41:35
You too. What did I just rant about? I guess 'cause you- That's just, that's like mor- normal me and Steve, isn't it? David Chalifour, "Yo, when I'm in town, I wash my hands before and after when using the restroom."
41:45
And Merle Betts says, "Realized this morning I'll be in Kansas City this weekend, and could drop," [laughs] I don't know. I don't know. I, I can't even u- understand what, what some of these are.
41:55
"Drop, drop a case of," oh, "beer to you, Kelly, and the boys cheaper than purchased at Caesar's Lobby Bar. Cheers, guys. Have a great weekend." Oh, thank you, Merle Betts. That's very nice of him to offer.
42:04
Well, what happened? Merle Betts is buying us a case of beer? He said he's, he could dr- he could- Yes, he could-... drop/ship a case of Y- uh, was it Yuengling? Yuengling, yes.
42:14
Yuengling beer to you and the boys cheaper than purchased at Caesar's Lobby Bar. That's very nice of him, though. You're absolutely right. But Merle, you don't have to do that. J. Con does.
42:21
And Steve, New York Football Giants 42 says, "Since we don't have ANG on the weekends, I figured I'd ask, do you guys have any early thoughts on tomorrow's games?" Are you talking ATS or survivor?
42:32
'Cause that's where my brain is, is with survivor. And again, eight games tomorrow. Michigan favored by 12 and a half over St. Louis to start things off.
42:42
And then, uh, Sparty four and a half points over Louisville is the second game.
42:46
And by the way, those are, that's, those are the only two games you will get before 5:15 Eastern, 2:15 Pacific tomorrow That's, that's the worst. And this is what I, I went over this earlier in the week. The schedule for
43:01
the round of 32 is just brutal these days. When we were kids, we used to be of these fantastic finishes left and right.
43:09
But again, the round of 32 schedule, which runs through 2032, extended back in 2024, stipulates that the same number of windows are provided to CBS as before.
43:19
Although unlike with the previous schedule, where all games in a window start within 10 minutes of each other, resulting in the possibility of multiple close games ending at once, the start times of games now on CBS, TBS, TNT, and Tru are staggered with action lasting later in the night and fewer simultaneous games than in the previous format.
43:36
The new TV deal will allow for more staggered starts of games, they say, so all those buzzer beaters aren't happening at the same time. I want them to happen at the same time. Yeah, me too.
43:43
Also, you, you're looking at five of eight games tomorrow, double-digit spreads. I'll tell you just, so to answer the question, though, the, the just sort of...
43:51
'Cause I haven't really looked that closely at tomorrow, tomorrow, but Texas Gonzaga, where the Zags are six-and-a-half point favorites. I don't know, man.
43:58
This Texas team, obviously they've had, they had to play in the first four, so a little more, uh,
44:05
a little more sort of, uh, travel and, and games obviously for them involved in this than, than it would be for Gonzaga heading into this.
44:13
But I don't know, man, Texas looks like if there is a double-digit seed, remember a double-digit seed has gotten to the round of 16, at least one since the year 2008.
44:23
We got close to that being snapped last year when only number 10 Arkansas got in. But I don't know, Texas with the, with the outright upset tomorrow feels like a real possibility tomorrow.
44:32
Kind of figured you would like that. Same, same thing. I pulled, I, I pulled these up this morning and was looking through. Nothing jumped out to me.
44:40
I would probably, I'll probably end up laying it with Arkansas again, 11 and a half. Yeah. They have high point. Vandy, a one-and-a-half point favorite over Nebraska. I'm surprised it's that low.
44:51
Oh, and I think that's come down. I thought that this morning too- Yeah... when I saw it. I think I saw two and a half this morning. Yeah. So what, uh, whatever.
44:59
I thought the same thing, Gil, so I'll let that one come in. I might play that. Some people think Duke is vulnerable to TCU. I do not, however. But I could see TCU covering that for sure. Dallin had TCU- Yeah...
45:09
covering that earlier. Michael Monasano, all of his plays today. We're still 20 minutes away from tip-off. He's got his bets on this Friday next on a Numbers Game right here at Visa and the Sports Betting Network.
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