Search
Login
Sign Up
Mar 23, 2026
A Numbers Game | March 23, 2026 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | March 23, 2026 | Hour 3
00:00
44:58
1×
Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story, they always do. So, I'm one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number three of a Numbers Game at VSiN, eSports betting network, vsin.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, Sirius XM channel 158. Gil Alexander. Kelly Billin, my little buddy. Hello.
0:20
Alongside, you can follow Kelly on Twitter @kellybythelon. You can. Beware, though. I'm @beatingthebook. You know, you're nice on Twitter, right? No, I'm nice. Yeah. Yeah. I, I'm, I'm always nice.
0:29
You're not a tre- or tread lightly. What, what is my line with Fezzik? Uh, follow at your own peril. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. Steve the Proxy points out, I was doing the commercials earlier and the, uh, the bad announcer stuff.
0:41
He points out there's a, there's a commercial we missed. He says, "I literally turned off the March Madness fast break product because literally every 90 seconds was a Capital One commercial with Barkley and Samuel L..."
0:51
I didn't say... I said before- This-... there's a ton of them, okay? This, the same one over and over. "Then later, the same group performed a rendition of Sorry, Miss Jackson as Sorry, Sam Jackson." Yeah.
1:00
"That in addition to a few bad beats, I tapped out of the madness by Saturday afternoon. Kelly, my wife thought I was mean for how hard I would crush that you might remember me from my old job commercial for years.
1:10
Steve, you gotta give it up." He's talking about, uh [laughs] Yeah, he used to drive me nuts. That's, that's what his wife said to him. "Steve, you gotta give it up with this Jennifer Garner stuff."
1:16
I am more okay, and I understand most people would disagree with this, I am more okay than the nine different Capital One commercials they're, they're forcing on us right now. Yeah.
1:26
I'm more okay with that than the inaccuracy of the Jennifer Garner, uh, pretending to work at, be- Right... work at Hollywood. [laughs] Numbers Game brought to you by ProphetX, by the way.
1:34
If you met Jennifer Garner, if she was in this casino after the show and you ran into her, what would you say to her? Oh, Ms. Garner, so nice to meet you. I love you and everything you've done. No, no, no, no, no.
1:44
Wouldn't you ask her? Nah, I'd be like- Wouldn't you be like- I'd be dead serious. I would not bring up- Do you-... the Capital One commercial stuff... you wouldn't? No. Oh. No.
1:49
I, I would think you would go up to her and say like, "What do-" Would not insult her profession. No, no, no. You would say to her, "Ms. Garner, what do you want to be known for?
1:57
Do you wanna be known for this new business that you're in right now?" No, no, no. Get me wrong, I would love to have that conversation with her. Yeah. That's, I would have that conversation with her.
2:03
But it's also like that's also confusing, right? Because she's acting in a commercial about r- running a new business, so, like, she's theoretically doing her old job. Hmm. While talking about her new job.
2:15
Hey, one question before we get to Country Club and then back to, uh, College Hoops with Andrew or- What's up?... with, uh, Adam Burke. I almost said Andrew. Um, the Lakers having this big streak,
2:26
and Chris Foster jogged my memory of this 'cause I meant to ask you this last segment. Do you think any of this translates to the playoffs? 10 in a row for the Los Angeles Lakers. Um, do I think some of it translates?
2:39
Yes. I think that LeBron playing much more efficient offensive basketball and deferring to Reaves and Luka Dončić more is always, was the only way that this was gonna work.
2:51
Uh, so I believe that can, uh, carry, carry forward. And look, I think we've seen LeBron do that before.
2:58
I think w- even with Miami in the early days when they were trying to figure out how the balance between Wade and Bosh and him was going to work, I think LeBron as a very, very smart basketball player knows that he can impact a game without having the ball in his hands, and I think he's learning that here more in recent weeks.
3:15
Also, the lineup change where they have Marcus Smart now starting. I mean, Marcus Smart is incredibly important for how well this team do- uh, does going forward.
3:26
And to say that in the year 2026, nah, I think I'm a little concerned about their chances. All right, let's try this a different way. The playoffs were to start today, this just in, they don't.
3:35
But if they were to start today, the thr- third seeded Lakers would take on the sixth seeded Timberwolves in a best of seven, 'cause remember, the NBA refuses to knock it down from seven games.
3:49
Who's the, what's the line and who are you betting? Is it Anthony Edwards healthy- Yep... in this situation? He sure is. Uh, Minnesota Timberwolves are small favorites, and I'm betting them. Thank you.
3:59
That was what I was going for. Yeah. Yep. That's all I wanted to hear. I mean, really, no, no. What you- That's all I wanted to hear...
4:04
what you're really trying to get me to say, is this, Gil, is there's no way in hell the Los Angeles Lakers are getting past the San Antonio Spurs- Right... or the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference.
4:13
That's right. What are we talking about? I, look, I think the rest- Yeah... of the West is enough of a mess that third place Lakers kinda checks out, actually.
4:21
The Rockets have come down to earth 'cause they lost their MVP, Stephen Adams. Just, just being it, just keeping it real.
4:27
Stephen Adams was the most valuable player to the Houston Rockets all season long with what he did on the offensive glass and giving them extra possessions because they have limited offense.
4:36
Every, everybody else struggles on offense outside of Kevin Durant. So Houston's that. Denver, getting healthy, but has shown major issues here over the past couple weeks. There's not much trust there.
4:47
Minnesota's got their problems. Everybody else has their problems. So, like, Lakers might be the best of the rest, but it's San Antonio and Oklahoma City. That's the only conversation.
4:56
And you're saying they might not even get past the first round. Yeah. Yeah. Shall we do it? Country Clubbing, let's go. [upbeat music] You know what I'm really impressed by?
5:14
Turn the seats down. Oh. The, the, the glow sticks that, that we, every time that music comes on- Uh, Lake Glow Stick. Yeah, Lake Glow Stick. Lake Glow Stick infraction. Who is that?
5:23
It's a L- Lazy Glow Stick for Larry, I think. Why? Is that Larry's night? Smythe? Um, that no one steals the glow sticks. They al- they remain back there. Oh, I think those are, I think that's Darnell's private property.
5:34
Oh, that's why. He keeps it under lock and key. Yeah. Think so. [laughs] Well, we appreciate it. Yeah, enthusiasm. He does a better job with the show props than I do. Should I do my tennis plays first again? Yeah.
5:44
Recap my tennis plays? Yeah, let's do that. I'll do this one more time on the show, but- I bet, I bet one of them. Did you? Mm-hmm. I like, I love th- sh- uh, let me guess, 'cause it's the earliest one?
5:51
Is that why you played it? Well, I didn't know that, but I did find out it was early 'cause it starts here in about an hour. That's right. Sure. You're talking about Cirstea in golf. Yeah.
5:59
I am on Sorana Cirstea +164 versus Coco- Uh, Kerstae's hard court numbers are better. She's playing the best tennis of her career in her last year of her career. And Coco's Coco. She just has this, um,
6:14
she has this flaw in the serve and it's just not, she doesn't, she's not threatening to win any tournaments. I think she goes out in this one. Also on the lady side, Hailey Baptiste
6:24
from the streets of DC, minus 106 versus Jelena Ostapenko. Come on, Baptiste. Give her a little bit of her own medicine. Real quick on Kerstae, just best I could find was plus 160. Yeah.
6:34
But we're still, we're still within range. Still within range. Baptiste, uh, minus 106. What's her number now? May- maybe- Let me pull it up... maybe you can even get better on Baptiste. I don't know.
6:43
Let's find out what she is against Jelena Ostapenko. Uh, Baptiste I am seeing at- 109... minus 10- DraftKings... minus 109? Yep. Yeah, so a little worse, but still playable.
6:54
And then on the men's side, Kelly, you want to give us a shot again? Oh my God, I don't even remember. Quentin Halys. Qu- Quentin. Plus 111 versus Kamil Majchrzak. Good luck, Quentin. Quentin Halys.
7:08
H-A-L-Y-S is how you will find it. Um- Oh, man... so there's that. Uh, plus 102 over at DraftKings. Yeah, not as good So not quite as good either again. No. Uh, CLV store, we've swept again.
7:19
But we'll see if they, uh, we, they can all get home. Halys on the men, Halys on the men's side, Baptiste and Kerstae on the lady side. You have a question for me about the, uh- Oh, yes. Yes. Glad.
7:32
Uh, okay, futures board. Alcaraz goes out. Alcaraz loses to Seb Korda. Woo, Korda. Sebastian Korda is playing. He won Delray. That's right.
7:42
And now he, he takes down Alcaraz, and Alcaraz after this was like, "Great match by Seb. I'm going home before I go to, to, uh, the clay swing in Europe." Okay. Be with the family. So- Yep...
7:53
the obviously the running Dinsic joke of it starts on the last weekend, right? Yeah. Ain't gonna be the case. Not gonna be the case. Is Sinner minus 200 a bad bet? No. Think I'm gonna bet it.
8:06
It is not a bad bet 'cause he's Jannik Sinner, for God sakes. Yeah. Uh, yeah. It doesn't matter what you throw at him. I mean- I mean, the point of that is one of those two has gotten out of the way, right?
8:14
Like i- i- it could be Alcaraz and Sinner could've lost, I would've been asking you the same question. Here's the thing, Medvedev, though, gave him a run at Indian Wells, right? That's true. Took him to two tiebreakers.
8:23
Medvedev is the next shot at eight to one. They're on the same side of the bracket. The really interesting thing is who's going to play Sinner or whomever in the final? Because the other side of the bracket is Korda,
8:37
our guy, Landaluce, who we've won twice on now at big money, Lehečka, Fritz, Echeverri, who we won on yesterday, Tommy Paul, Vacherot, Valentin Vacherot, who we won on yesterday, and Arthur Fils.
8:49
One of those guys is gonna be in the final in Miami. Who, who does Sinner have to get through again on his side? Sorry. Sinner has to get through, we don't know yet.
8:58
After today we'll have a better, clearer picture of it, but the biggest competition for him on his side of the bracket right now is Medvedev, Sasha Zverev. They're all over. Okay. Yeah. Gotcha. He's got...
9:08
It, it's, it's much more top-heavy on that side. So [coughs]- Jannik Sinner, Taylor Fritz, exactly? Is Fritz on the other side? Taylor Fritz is on the other side. All right.
9:19
I don't think- I think I'm laying minus 200 on Sinner. Would anyone be offering a Jannik Sinner, Taylor Fritz bet? I, I doubt it. I don't think so. I doubt it. [laughs] Yeah. No.
9:27
Um, but anyway, it's interesting w- again, with Carlos Alcaraz out, it's very interesting.
9:30
On the lady side with Iga out, Iga with her 73 match first, it wasn't her first round, it was the second round, but her 73 match, first match of a tournament streak broken by her countrywoman Magda Linette, where Iga was like, "I'm not good enough to have any expectations.
9:46
This is how I felt on my way up. It felt more organic on my way up. It doesn't feel right now," as I've said for a long time now, something between the ears. Uh, it is Sabalenka and Rybakina and Pegula
9:57
with Drew's pick and Zach's pick, Mboka now the fourth shot at nine to one. Mboka plays Andreva, who was the fifth shot today, 10 to one. Doubles partners who are facing each other, that's the match of the day.
10:07
Um, and then you see everybody else. My girl Kerstae, a 50 to one. I, I have no futures plays in this tournament, had nothing pre-flop in this tournament. Yeah.
10:16
Didn't want any part of it, and based on the rain and the delays and all that and all the, uh, the strange upsets, I'm good playing it match by match, that's how I'm comfortable.
10:23
If you had to make one right now, men or, men or women, what would you play? Well, Sinner minus 200 is the easy answer. Oh, that's what... I was just trying to- Yeah... I was trying to reinforce my own ideas. Yeah.
10:33
Thank you. That, if that's the easy answer- Yep... then I think I'm gonna bet it. Golf, Matt Fitzpatrick with the, uh, win at the Valspar, one stroke winner over, uh, David Lipsky. Let's go.
10:42
Two strokes over Jordan Smith, and then three over Schauffele, Penge, and Im, Sungjae Im.
10:48
Well, you know, s- for, for somebody to make a three-shot comeback and win a, win an event like this, Gil, someone's gotta choke it away, and that would be one Sungjae Im. Thank you, Sungjae.
10:57
W- it was, I said it on Thursday, it was, Sungjae Im got off to this great start. Look, he's coming off an injury. You just really haven't seen much of it at the beginning of the year.
11:08
If he had won this event, and it looked like he might just wa- uh, cruise, cruise away with it at one point, it was gonna be one of those days for the books of like, just, just clean up all the money, 'cause nobody was betting him coming in w- out of form like that.
11:21
And then it flips on a Sunday, you gotta love this as a bettor, Gil. Flips on a Sunday to Fitzpatrick, who I know myself [laughs] and a lot of other people were on as well.
11:30
So what a go from, go from the books clean it up to getting punished. Love it. David Lipsky I thought was very impressive, as was Jordan Smith.
11:37
Uh, Wes brought it up, I think Fitz and Schauffele bouncing back to play this well after last week, very impressive. That was my plus 550 on Penge winning Rookie of the Year.
11:47
That was big yesterday, him getting in the top five. Adam Burke coming back on a numbers game, right? You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners.
11:55
But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home. Pros win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline, and now so can you. VSiN Pro gives you access to the same real-time insights the sharps use.
12:06
No secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with VSiN Pro.
12:21
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network A numbers game brought to you by Profit X. The tournament is underway, but it's not too late to become the King of March on Profit X.
12:31
Win 10 pre-game spreads or totals, hit your volume goal, and you're entered to win a free trip worth up to $10,000. No entry fee required. Hit $1,000 in volume and you're in for the $5,000 trip.
12:41
Hit $10,000 and you're going for the $10,000 trip. Download Profit X, use code VSiNMM, as in March Madness. Win 10, hit the volume, earn your shot, and you're on your way.
12:51
We get tweets to Beat the Book, I just wanna read this one, Kelly, because it's always funny to see what people, uh, react to. K219 says, "Gil, let Kelly know that Garner has three kids, nine, 12, and 15.
13:01
Maybe she has taken the time to raise them as her full-time job." I, uh, not, I'm sure she's a great human being- Mm... and she, yes, is probably a great mother.
13:09
We're not really getting that from you, so I think people are, a, a backlash on Twitter about that. [laughs] I, I'm just saying sh- we might be... No, lying's not the right word.
13:15
We're misrepresenting ourselves in a commercial.
13:18
Hey, uh, before we get to Adam, I, uh, my apologies 'cause earlier I, I alluded to the VSiN bracket challenge, and I only talked about the, uh, the shows, the VSiN shows, 'cause we're all entered in as one show, uh, entry, not individually.
13:31
In the numbers game, we're 15 and 15. We're only two games back, and we had a b- again, a bunch of bad beats. We're 15 and 15, we're only two games back of the l- of the leader, VSiN Prime Time, who are 17 and 13.
13:42
They are in the lead. So Matt Humans and Tim Murray- Yeah, jumped by Money Moves... Money Moves is 16, 13, and one. Then it's, it's really cashing out at 15, 14, and one in front of us at 15 and 15.
13:55
But it is a dog fight at the top in terms of the shows.
13:58
But as far as, like, the real bracket challenge, forget the VSiN shows for God sakes, the real bracket challenge where you, the listener, has, uh, entered, shout out to D Clark.
14:10
D, I don't know what your first name is, but you're 23, 6, and one. Good on you. 23, 6, and one, in the lead. Uh, what a performance.
14:19
In the first 30, you had to pick 20 games, ATS or totals in the first round, then 10 in the second round. D Clark is 23, 6, and one, uh, followed somewhat closely by Jay Creech at 21 and nine.
14:31
Oh, actually, uh, P Van Getty at 21, eight, and one with a bunch of other 21, eight, and ones in there, slightly ahead of the Jay Creech entry of 21 and nine. Yeah, the pushes, pushes don't count though.
14:41
It's all just the wins. Just the wins. Yeah. Pushes don't count. Two point lead. Good on you, D Clark. Yeah. Dude, 23, 6, and one. Stop it. We go with Daryl. You must be living right.
14:52
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, Adam Burke joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @skatingtripods. The man is busy. Adam, good morning, sir. Hey, how we doing, boys?
15:03
We're doing very well. So now you are redoing... Well, first of all, you're doing all the Sweet 16 game write-ups, and then you're redoing the whole baseball thing?
15:12
So I wouldn't say I'm redoing the whole baseball thing, but, you know, uh, people have been paying attention to March Madness. They've been paying attention to the World Baseball Classic.
15:19
Probably everything other than Major League Baseball spring training.
15:22
So I'm going through, honestly, this is kind of self-serving too, but I'm going through and looking at some of the story lines for each team, the injuries, a player that maybe has some fantasy or betting impact, whether it's from a prop standpoint or, you know, just kind of looking for guys to fill out your roster as you're going through your fantasy drafts the next couple of days.
15:40
So, uh, just doing that to kind of catch up, help myself catch up, 'cause it's been very busy with the NCAA tournament and all the conference tournament stuff as well.
15:47
So that'll be dropping sometime this afternoon here on Update on All 30 MLB Teams over at vsin.com. Nice. Is there, was there any, what would you say your biggest, what was the biggest impact?
15:58
What, what moved the needle in spring training for you? I don't know if I would say it moved the needle, because I really like this team anyway.
16:06
Uh, but it looks like Kevin McGonigal's probably gonna make the opening day roster for the Tigers.
16:10
Um, kind of keeping an eye on social media to see when that's actually announced, but, uh, kid's probably gonna bat lead off for this team. And, I mean, it's just unreal. 206 plate appearances at double A.
16:22
Hasn't had a single plate appearance at triple A, but the dude can hit, and he can do so many special things. He's a good base runner as well. Uh, you know, a guy who's pretty good in the field.
16:31
He's just gonna elevate the ceiling that much more for Detroit, a team that I still really, really love. I think the AL Central is very weak this season, and I think Detroit is a team that has the chance to win it all.
16:41
Uh, certainly win the American League, but a chance to win it all. So McGonigal breaking camp with this roster, uh, again, the Tigers are going for it, you know? And that's, uh, it's, it's good to see.
16:51
It's refreshing to see a team, you know, not play service time manipulation games with its top prospects. I took McGonigal in our draft. Rookie of the Year, American League.
16:59
Off to a, off to a good start administratively anyway, uh, with that. Uh, let's get to the Sweet 16. You did the write-ups on all these.
17:07
I'm curious, after doing the write-ups, which is, I mean, this is, these games, the, the upside of not having many upsets in the first couple rounds is that you have these tremendous match-ups in the Sweet 16.
17:18
Which is the one that excites you the most after doing all these write-ups? You know, I, I obviously think they're all pretty exciting in their own way, um, which is, you know, kind of the PC answer to give.
17:29
But, uh, I'm, I'm really, really, really interested in this Iowa State and Tennessee game. You know what I mean?
17:35
Um, Iowa State, you know, has played very well, and of course, if they get Joshua Jefferson back, which who knows, I mean, the way that he was kind of limping around and, you know, unable to walk without the walking boot.
17:45
He was on crutches and all that. We'll see if he can, you know, come back for this game. Uh, at least the game's not until Friday, so he's got a little bit of extra time, you know, to maybe get back into the lineup.
17:54
But, you know, Tennessee with Rick Barnes, man. I mean, Rick Barnes maybe has figured this thing out in the NCAA tournament finally. He couldn't figure it out when he was at Texas.
18:02
Uh, he's done a much better job here at Tennessee over the last few years, a guy that I repeatedly would beat up at this time of the year. Um, you know, this is a, a pretty interesting situation here.
18:12
Iowa State's gonna play relatively close to home in Chicago, uh, so we'll see if they have a decent crowd edge here at the United Center.
18:19
Uh, but these two teams, you know, pretty different types of teams here, I think, where Iowa State- Shooting a three is a big part of their offense. Tennessee, it's not a big part of their offense at all whatsoever.
18:29
And in fact, there are a few games like that, you know, here in this round. Arizona's a team that does not shoot threes at all. They have one of the lowest three-point rates in the country.
18:38
Um, I thought maybe it would come back to bite them against Utah State and that game would be a little bit closer than, you know, what the expectation was.
18:44
But, you know, there's some interesting stylistic match-ups here in the Sweet 16, uh, that I think are gonna make for some challenging handicaps. What was your take on Alabama? I'm curious.
18:53
I haven't really focused that much on them today. I would, I would imagine most people, I don't know about most, but a lot of people are surprised they got to the Sweet 16 without Aiden Holloway.
19:03
There is no indication, Adam, that we will see Aiden Holloway here come Sweet 16 and Elite Eight if they were able to beat Michigan. No indication that we'll get that either, that he'll return to the lineup.
19:13
We shall see. Um, end of the road, in your opinion, for them, or a fi- or a puncher's chance here? Obviously, it's a really, really [laughs] difficult match-up, right?
19:23
Against a Michigan team that just has length for days. I mean, you know, they got two wings at 6'9", they got a 7'3" guy in the middle.
19:29
So this basically is gonna be a high variance game in the sense that if Alabama shoots really well from three, that's their path to winning this game.
19:36
'Cause I don't think they're gonna get the ball inside on Michigan with any success whatsoever. So it's gonna come down to three-point shooting.
19:42
And Holloway's a guy, 44% three-point shooter during the regular season, uh, then the one appearance that they had in the conference tournament against Ole Miss.
19:50
Um, this is the type of game where I think you're gonna wind up missing him quite a bit. That being said, I mean, they made 31 threes in their two NCAA tournament games so far without Holloway.
20:00
Uh, it seems like a lot of guys kind of stepping up. You know, White sell played really well. Bull Bowen played really well, uh, you know, in that first weekend of the tournament. So they seem to have adjusted.
20:09
They seem to have adapt to, adapted to life without Holloway, and Nate Oats is a very, very good coach at this time of the year. So I think Alabama can keep it close.
20:19
I, I don't know if they can win necessarily because they're going to be so dependent on shooting threes. Guys, they may shoot 50 threes in this game and it wouldn't surprise me at all.
20:26
They shot 42 in the game against Texas Tech and they won by 25. So I think they're just gonna have to bomb away from three and hope for the best.
20:34
Um, Michigan obviously familiar with the United Center, just played the Big Ten tournament there, so maybe that gives them a little bit of an advantage and of course gonna have a crowd advantage too.
20:42
Uh, but for Alabama, high variance, right? If they shoot the three well, they got a chance to win. If they don't shoot the three well, they got a chance to get blown out. Yep. I think that's how, uh, most see it.
20:52
Nate, Nate Oats and Alabama can only really play one way at this point. Uh, here's a self-serving question. I have a prop that I did before the tournament started. Uh, all the number one seeds, total number of wins.
21:05
I went over at 14 and a half. Now, that looked good until Florida lost to Iowa, so I'm at seven. The issue here is with the remaining three seeds, uh, three number one seeds. If one of them loses in the round 16, I lose.
21:20
I lose. I can't get to 15. So I have to have all three win at least this next round before I can afford to have, uh, a one loss, uh, or one of the se- of the three teams lose heading into the Final Four.
21:32
Will I win this bet or not? Will... Let's just start with the first question. Will all the one seeds remaining, will Duke, Michigan, and Arizona all advance to the Elite Eight? I think Duke will. I think Michigan will.
21:47
I think the one that you have to worry about is Arizona- Hmm... just because of what Tommy Lloyd does in the NCAA tournament. Now, in fairness, this is the best team that Tommy Lloyd has had in his time at Arizona.
21:59
I think we can all agree on that. But this is a guy who squanders talent. And it is a little bit fortunate for Arizona that, as I mentioned earlier, they don't shoot threes at all. Their three-point rate about 27%.
22:11
That's one of the bottom five in the nation. But Arkansas doesn't like to shoot threes either. They can do it, and they're very good at doing it. They're a top 10 offense in three-point percentage.
22:20
They just don't like to do it. So I'm curious to see how this game plays out. Arkansas may have to shoot more threes than they're comfortable with in this game, and it might actually be to their benefit.
22:31
It's very, very hard to get inside on this Arizona team. Shot share against on close twos is just 28.6%. That's one of the lowest in the nation.
22:39
So Arkansas's probably not gonna have the same measure of success slashing to the basket. They're gonna have to shoot threes, and that scares me from an Arizona standpoint 'cause they don't like to take them.
22:49
Adam, all the baseball and the Sweet 16, uh, write-ups are all available? Uh, baseball will be up today. Sweet 16's already up at vsin.com. Okay. Adam Burke, everybody. Thank you, Adam. Great seeing you. Appreciate it.
23:00
Have a good one, guys. Adam Burke. Skating Tripods on Twitter. The glue. I always say part of the glue. He's really the glue that holds this whole operation together. He's just gonna redo the baseball.
23:09
He's just gonna redo the whole thing. Coming back on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:20
Unmatched transparency with records updated daily. It's the sharp place. AI betting analysis, real-time global betting info and alerts directly from the pros.
23:27
You can scan that QR code for more information on sharpplays.com. Check it out. No NIT tonight, in addition to no NCAAs, but you know what there is right now, Kelly?
23:39
NCAA second round women's college basketball tournament. Bama up on Louisville 21 to 17. I learned that Zach Randolph's daughter is on Louisville. Oh, okay. So they'll probably win. [laughs] You think just based on that?
23:54
Just on that. They're three and a half point live favorites, 127 and a half. You're live told. Hey, I got Tennis Hardo news for Tennis Hardos. It was rumored all day yesterday Iga has broken up with her coach.
24:06
She split with her coach.
24:07
This is big for, for those who are big in tennis, this is a big deal 'cause, uh, her first coach, Tomasz Wict- uh, Wiktorowski, who she won five Grand Slams with, she, he coached her up from the beginning.
24:18
Obviously, yeah. When he broke up with h- with him, when she broke up with him, that was a massive bit of news Kind of ground like- Was this like a year ago? Yeah, like s- seismic, yes. Okay. Little more than a year ago.
24:30
Okay. Well, Wim Fissette, it didn't go as well with her latest coach, Wim Fissette. She did win Wimbledon with him though, it should be pointed out.
24:37
But she, she has, uh, she has split up with him, and I think the tennis community, and I will say this as an E- as an Iga guy who has won
24:44
untold amount of money betting on her, I think this is a terrible decision because she's keeping her psychologist, Daria. She's the problem. Oh, you figured it out? The psychologist is the problem.
24:56
Well, because- Are we sure Iga's coachable? Oh no, she's coachable. She's not one of these others that's not coachable. She's coachable. She's not Daniil Medvedev. She's coachable, but- Wait, Daniil's not coachable?
25:06
That's a th- that's like a thing is? I don't even think he has a coach. Really? That's awesome. I, I- Yeah, I, I- I mean, he didn't for a while... I never know how some of these like- Yeah...
25:12
the golfers and tennis players. Yeah. Like, it always shocks me the ones that lean almost too much into coaching and the ones, and then the ones that don't quite want anything. Yeah. Anyway, big news.
25:22
So, and, and the rumor is that she, her next coach will be Caroline Wozniacki's father. Okay. Yeah, we'll see. We'll see. Caroline Wozniacki was, uh- I don't think that's the real root of the problem...
25:35
very kind to me once. Caro- Carol- Caroline Wozniacki was- Yeah... or Wozniacki? Yeah, yeah. She- Wozniacki, sorry... she, she maybe stepped in for a Williams sister that was supposed to do an interview with me.
25:44
Oh, that was very sweet of her. Yes, it was very sweet of her. Yeah. She's good friends with Serena too. Maybe, maybe she was like, "I'll take it, Serena." They were li- they were living in the same neighborhood.
25:50
Let's put, that's how I had, uh, that's why I was there. Hey, uh, so I, I am still alive in Survivor. As I said early on in the show, I hope you are still alive in your Survivor pool.
25:59
And while I am, but while I am still alive, alive is... Kelly's still alive as well, by the way. He's pulling out his sheet.
26:08
While I am still alive, there are people who are alive and then there are people who are alive on life support. Yes.
26:12
I would consider myself the, the latter because the way that the cookie crumbled on my three entries, the really good one got bounced when V- when Vanderbilt lost. Mm-hmm. But not, they didn't get bounced.
26:23
I could rebuy after that, but it got bounced 'cause I- You're forced, this is what I was trying to explain all last week, you are forced at some point if you are behind, if you are actually trying to win this, you are forced into taking lower seeds.
26:33
And so I tried taking UCLA yesterday, kinda had to. Kinda had to take, um, who was the team that Purdue beat, uh, earlier for God sakes? Um, had to do Miami earlier in the day as well.
26:48
So I just have one entry remaining that I've gotten through to the S- to the Sweet 16, but now I'm sort of forced, this, and this happens now when there is a, when the nature of the big dance is that Cinderellas are not getting through.
27:00
In other words, AKA lower seeds are not getting through. And the only real ways you have to advance, remember ties are decided by the sum of seeds that you end up picking.
27:11
There's only four seeds that aren't top four seeds that are still available. That's number five, St. John's. That's number nine, Iowa. Number 11, Texas. And number six, Tennessee.
27:22
And by the way, Texas I've already used in this pool, in this entry. Yeah. So it's the worst of all luck. So I am forced, me personally, when we're going through options, and remember, this is every day.
27:32
It's not every round. It's every day. I am forced to take Iowa against Nebraska. By the way, I don't hate that play, but that's kind of my only option.
27:41
Like, if I'm going to get ahead in any way, I've got to take the nine seed Iowa Hawkeyes while I have the chance to. And if I lose, I lose, but at least that will advance me forward. You on Thursday?
27:52
I think I'm in the exact same boat. So I have- How many total points do you have right now? I don't know. I don't know exactly. I haven't added up.
28:00
Um- Ladies, ladies and gentlemen, Kelly Bidlack not, uh, adding up the points. Yeah. It, no, no, I'm like middle of the road like you though. This is- Yeah...
28:06
th- definitely my best, my best entry that could have gotten through did not get through, like when you- Right... had VCU early- Yep... and stuff like that. Um, Ark- like Arkansas I have through.
28:16
They've been used already. Tennessee I got through. It's been used already. But then, you know, then you gotta go to the other, other side of it too, right? Where it's like Nebraska bounced out one of mine.
28:27
Can't, can't use them either. So that's three already I can't use. Can't, can't play the team that bounced you out either. Yeah. Yeah.
28:31
Um, so I think I, look man, just like, like you just said, I think naturally I'm just gonna end up on Iowa on Thursday. Yep. Texas is an option, but I've already used them in the entry I have, right?
28:44
They're, they're the only longer seed than Iowa on Thursday. But I've already used them, so I can't use them again against Purdue. Not that I would necessarily want to.
28:51
So Iowa I think is the natural play, not only from what I have to play to try to advance, but also I think it's probably the play I'd make. So, so this is that- Yeah... that's my decision. Yeah.
28:59
I guess it's Texas or Iowa. I do have Texas available, but I kind of feel the same way as y- as you. Yeah. I don't know that I wanna use them.
29:07
I mean, I think I, I think Iowa has a better chance of beating Nebraska than Texas does of Purdue, and by the way, the lines reflect that, right? Right. So I think that's the play on Thursday.
29:15
Now, if we are fortunate enough to get through that, then you go to Friday. I think at that point I'm forced to take Tennessee over Iowa State, and oh by the way, I'd probably take them even if I wasn't forced to. Mm.
29:29
So kind of, uh, on the one hand I'm, I might not be really in this. On the other hand, if I stay alive with both Iowa and Tennessee, let's talk again on Saturday morning. Let's see how close to the top I am.
29:40
Yeah, that- If those both win... that one's gonna be tough for me on Friday. So if I, yeah, so if we get, if I get through, Tennessee I've used. So man, am I looking at that Michigan State Yukon game already? Maybe.
29:55
See, I wouldn't want any part of St. John's Duke. I wouldn't want any part of Mi- I don't want any part of St. John's Duke, yes. Yeah, I wouldn't want any part of Michigan State Yukon.
30:04
And I don't think Alabama's beating Michigan. So do you wanna squander a number one seed there? So, so Tennessee is really the only play for me on Friday. These are actually- No, I hear you.
30:12
This- These are actually pretty clear, right? This, and this is what I mean by the pool happens to you in a, in a, in a, in a tournament where there are very few upsets, meaning lower seeds get through.
30:23
Let's forget about betting lines for a second, but lower seeds get through. Then, then the pool actually starts to happen to you where you're forced into a couple plays.
30:31
It just so happens that this time, as I look at Thursday and Friday, those are actually the plays I'd make anyway based on the other match-ups.
30:38
And then starting Saturday with the Elite Eight, at that point, wherever I am, I am, and it's just a knockout stage. You're just gonna have to survive- Yeah...
30:45
at that point, 'cause there's no seeds at that point that are gonna advance you that much that I haven't used, right? [laughs] Mm-hmm, mm-hmm. If Iowa and Tennessee get in. So that's the problem.
30:55
And of course, part of that then is also, well, you wanna be, you wanna be very sensitive to, you know, are they in the same bracket kind of thing. Mm-hmm. But at that point, y- you know- So that I'm pretty balanced on.
31:07
I guess that's the good thing, right? I'm super, I'm super balanced on that. Yeah. Yeah. I don't have one region where I've got multiple teams- No... that I can't use.
31:15
And when all the number one seeds and most of the, when all, you know, when three of the ones are still available and all the twos are still available,
31:22
it's not like you, and you probably haven't used them anyway, it's not like you even have to worry about that in the end. Right, right.
31:27
If those are the teams you're gonna pick in the Eli- you know So this is what I'm kind of thinking, like you put, okay, I go Iowa Thursday, and then Illinois, Houston, whoa, like, you know, s- assuming you get through, Illinois, Houston, whichever one of those probably in that, that Elite Eight, um, to win that region,
31:43
I'd go there. I don't know what I'm gonna do on that Friday, man. That's really tough, 'cause you're, I don't have any confidence in St. John's-Duke right now in either one of those sides.
31:51
Do you have Ten- you don't have Tennessee available? Tennessee I've used. Oh. I've used Tennessee. Yeah.
31:55
So it's, uh, honestly, it's more do I, I, I might have to look Iowa State, Burton, Michigan State, Connecticut, but I'd like to u- leave those two teams alone 'cause I kinda wanna see more of what's gonna happen here with Duke through the- these next two rounds, right?
32:08
Yeah. Like, is it- Let's put it this way. I could still be in the money. I just can't, I don't think I can win it at this point, but you never know, right? Maybe there's just some- You never know. You never know...
32:15
maybe once the Elite Eight come around, maybe there's some confluence of events where you just happen to get the rest of it right and everybody else in front of you gets knocked out, who knows?
32:22
I mean, the other part worth asking, and, and should we care, i- uh, should we even care, is Iowa going to be the most used team or one of the most used teams this week? They should be. Yeah.
32:34
If people are playing it correctly. Yeah. If, I mean, if they haven't been used, and anybody who's not at the, like in the very, when I say very top, if you're not, like, in the top 10 to 15,
32:46
you can, you could afford to play it differently if you're, if, if you're at that stage. But if you're anything below that and you're trying to advance- Mm-hmm...
32:53
you probably have to, you're probably in the same boat we are, which is you gotta, you gotta take some risks. Mm-hmm. You have to be okay. [laughs] It's like, again, I'll just bring my buddy Tommy up again.
33:01
It's like, good for you, Tommy, you got through it. You have less points than I would- [laughs]... than I have when I got knocked out, right? Oh, man.
33:08
You have fewer points when you got all the way through than I had when I got knocked out. That's, like, you know, the comedy of it for, for some people.
33:15
But it's so enjoyable, and I think it's, and I think most people who have, who are signed up for it now, after we've been talking about it for years on this show, I think most people get it.
33:25
You'll never play a, you'll never play a bracket again. Maybe an upset rewarded bracket, but generally speaking, people sort of go away from brackets once they discover Survivor. Yeah.
33:35
Wait, what are you, what are you shaking your head about? I'm, I'm, uh, I'm in, I'm in two brackets. I- Yeah... could not tell you where I'm at in it. Oh, no, no. The Mega Pod bracket, I had Florida winning it all.
33:43
It's like set it and forget it, right? Filled it out, I haven't che- I haven't checked it once. Todd is up 180 units on the basketball season. He couldn't pick a bracket to save his life this year. [laughs] Yep.
33:52
I mean, that's, that's brackets. No, it is. Once again, Becky from accounting, she's the one to beat. [laughs] Becky, why are you so good at this?
34:00
We'll recap all the bets next on a Numbers Game at VSIN, V Sports Betting Network.
34:04
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSIN, the sports betting network. A Numbers Game proudly brought to you by Profit X.
34:22
I haven't spoken to them and to see how prideful they are about the sponsorship, but I'm just gonna go with proudly brought to you by Profit X.
34:27
I know Buddhist Man tried to get the, uh, graphic changed to, uh, my face on it and- It's great seeing Buddhist Man the other day in the crowd. Awesome seeing him, yep.
34:34
Um- Hung out with him for a few minutes on Friday... forget the bracket, Profit X taking March Madness to a whole new level with King of March. Win 10 free game spreads or totals across the 67 tournament games.
34:43
Hit your volume goal and you're entered to win a free trip of your choice. Hit $1,000 in volume and you're in for a $5,000 trip. Hit $10,000, you're in for a $10,000 trip, flights, hotels, wherever you wanna go covered.
34:53
Every additional 10 wins earns you another entry. Download Profit X, create your account, and use promo code VSINMM, as in March Madness. Win 10, hit the volume, earn your shot only on Profit X.
35:05
We get tweets of beating the book all the pre- I got 17 points. That good? Oh, you're lower than I am. Yeah, we're both in the same boat though. 'Cause I had Arkansas, UCLA, Tennessee, right?
35:18
It's just three 'cause I got bounced- Yeah... on one. Yeah. Yeah. I'm, I'm not that low. I think I have 20. It's still low though. I bet you were, I bet you were in better positions than a bunch of people though.
35:28
Yeah, but in a pool size that has thousands of people, there's always somebody, right? Yeah, that, Gil, you're right. There's always somebody that picked high points, and they got Texas. Yeah.
35:37
And they got, like, Kentuc- you know, like, uh, oh, I don't know. We'll pick another one. And they're, they're well ahead of us. Uh, this is from, let's see. We got tweets beating the book.
35:47
Buddhist Man, "Speaking of multiple boozers, there's no more mail it in moment than packing back up the suitcase after four 14-plus hour days of the tournament. Great seeing you both."
35:57
You know, it's funny on Twitter, so great seeing you, Buddhist, by the way. Yeah. Always a pleasure seeing you. Um- Missed him on Friday. I know he was over at, uh, Durango...
36:03
most consistently funny guy on Twitter for us, uh, avid listeners, not only of this show, but I think others as well.
36:09
Um, but we, uh, it's funny, after, after the weekend of March Madness, everyone is so excited to be here, and most people [laughs] once the weekend is done, they are so exhausted. Like, "I gotta get out of here."
36:18
It's a, it's a hell of a weekend. Yes, it is. If you come in here to v- come here to Vegas and you do it right like Buddhist Man was and many others that I ran into this weekend, yes, it will take a lot out of you.
36:28
And it was also 98 degrees, so a lot of people were at the pool drinking So it was a co- it was a, it was a basketball drinking sunshine confluence Oh, I, I heard multiple stories of, of not, not, not just here, but other places of, "Hey, you know, we [laughs] were planning on maybe hanging out at the pool for a little bit."
36:48
Yeah. They're like, "Nah, we didn't wa- end up wanting to do that 'cause it was too hot." Too hot. Can you imagine? Mikey P, definitely agree about Survivor. Much more fun than brackets.
36:56
First year playing and it made it through the first four days. He made it through the first four days. He going Michigan State, Texas Tech, Illinois, and Iowa State. Now my brain will be in knots for the next four days.
37:05
See now for him, see, he's got... What was Texas Tech? They were five, so he's got what, three, five, eight, 11. He's only at 13. See, that's the thing. He's playing it- Yeah... like my buddy Tommy played it.
37:17
Mikey P, you will know in subsequent Survivor years, you will play it more aggressively, and you will become a better Survivor player as you go on. Brett Liedtke, I love when people, uh,
37:27
tell you the Survivor advice you dispensed for many years. Who knows, maybe even he learned it on this.
37:31
Brett Liedtke, he goes, "Most important strategy to remember in Survivor is pick a team that you think will lose in the next round." You don't say.
37:37
Uh, if you survive to a championship game, no matter what, you will only have one option to select. Getting there means you selected a finalist correctly.
37:44
Brett, what I say always about this is ideally when you play Survivor, right, your team, the team that you pick loses the next round.
37:51
But in the round of 64 and the round of 32, that doesn't mean nearly as much as it does now moving forward. Now you really want that ideally because now it matters. Mm-hmm.
38:04
I think if you start thinking about it in the round of 64, round of 32, you're doing too much. Um, Mark V. Uh, Mark V thought I was a little tough on Lapis in his opinion.
38:14
He says everyone loves Raftery, but he's the king of don't need a three. Yeah, but for L- for Lapis, Mark, Mark V, it was a, uh, it was a trio of c- of comments. [laughs] It wasn't just that one.
38:23
The m- the, the, uh, the Lapis one once again was 40 seconds left, Tennessee down two. Oh, excuse me, Tennessee up two, were... And Virginia with the ball. Work as long as you have to to get a good one.
38:36
Work as long as you have to. There was that. Then 77-71 with 11 seconds left, he's losing his mind about the foul. It's the one that you cannot... Well, it's not the only thing. It's one of two things you couldn't do.
38:47
You couldn't give up a three, and you couldn't foul that quickly. Actually, it's not the worst thing in the world to foul there.
38:52
And then the late, later down, 77-72 with 9.6 seconds left, it was the, "Would you like to have a three? Absolutely, but it's not the end of the world if you get a quick two.
39:00
Either way, you're gonna need another basket." It was a trio of events within a 40-second game span, so Lapis gets the award in my opinion. We have a recap of the bets beginning with tennis today.
39:12
They have already started play in Miami. Uh, Ayala got rolled in two sets. I was not involved in that, but she should've been my Mahova. That would've, uh, that was properly priced.
39:22
You know who's getting rolled by Tsitsipas? Medvedev. Did you get in your Sinner play? No. Tried to. I was wondering- Oh... why the futures books were down, 'cause it started. Oh.
39:31
We'll see if Medvedev can bounce back in that, but that would make the path even clearer for Jannik Sinner. I mean, w- what if Medvedev loses, what is his re-post at tonight? Minus 400? Yep. Cool.
39:43
[laughs] Uh, I am on three plays again today. Uh, 12 and four run in tennis for plus 10.45 units as the hard court season... I, you know what? This happened last year too.
39:54
The, so there's hard courts, then it goes clay, then it goes grass, and then it goes back to hard courts. The second part of the hard court season, the late part, phenomenal. Archers?
40:03
Remember starting at the end of Wimbledon on the rest, it was just ridiculously good. True hards? Was it- Har- hard, true. Hard true. No, but there is a hard true tournament coming up next week in Charleston. Oh, nice.
40:13
[laughs] Charl- w- that's their s- that's their transition to clay. They play on a hard true in Charleston.
40:19
Uh, so this happened last year in the first part of the hard court too where like the data wa- hadn't manifested quite yet, and in the end it's a massive flourish, and it's what we're experiencing right now.
40:28
I'm on Quentin Halys, Quentin Halys today versus Kamil Majchrzak. Halys is plus 111 is where the scribers got it last night, or apparently Jonathan Davis gave them out- Mm-hmm... on the longonebeast.com/picks.
40:43
I think we corrected that. Hailey Baptiste is the oth- is on the ladies' side versus Jelena Ostapenko and Sorana Cîrstea, plus 164 versus Coco Gauff. So Halys on the men's side, Baptiste and Cîrstea on the ladies' side.
40:56
The Cîrstea match starts in about, ooh, I don't know, half an hour, but you know how tennis start times go. Depends on the match that precedes it. Uh, I also have UConn to win the national championships.
41:06
The only futures play I have in college basketball is UConn to win it all at 16 to one. Ask me if I like that pick right now. Hey, do you like, uh, UConn to win it all, man? Yeah, not really. No.
41:16
Uh, the total number one seed tournament wins over 14 and a half. Let me explain what I was talking about with Adam Burke earlier. So with seven wins, now with Florida getting bounced, I'm at seven,
41:27
and there's only three number one seeds left now with Florida's absence. If one of those three loses this round, I lose the bet 'cause I can't get to 14 and a half with only two teams the rest of the way.
41:40
But if those three teams do win, talking about Michigan, Duke, and Arizona, as they're expected to, then I can afford a loss in the next round and still win this. Brackets are funny like that.
41:52
And then we haven't talked about this, I... Special numbers game investigation Kelly reveals that the Major League Baseball season starts two nights from now, Wednesday night with the Giants and the Yankees.
42:04
How about that? Um, kidding of course. Reds most wins by the end of April, 35 to one. I got that at Caesars. Has Circa put theirs out yet- Hmm... for April? Check. Have to check on that. I can check.
42:16
I did this and then Hunter Green of course then was like, "Oh, I, I'm gonna be out for a while." So do I feel as good about it?
42:22
Of course not, but I still kinda feel good about it because again, this is, a lot of this was schedule based, and I think the Reds at a really long number is a great play. The other one I like the most though,
42:35
I have to say, and now I fear will be the one that wins because it's always the bridesmaid The New York Mets to have the most wins by the end of April. That's the March games plus the April games.
42:45
That's how Caesars does it. Ties are a dead heat, sadly. What are you checking on there, over there? Uh, to see if Circa has wins up. Well, yeah. I don't think they do.
42:56
I don't think they do 'cause they'll, they'll wait till April, I think. Yeah, I don't think- That's probably the, yeah... I don't see. They got a lot up, but. That's probably the case. Um, you sir, what do you have?
43:04
Uh, let's see. For me today, I am tailing you, uh, on the one tennis bet. Kerstaja. Let's go Kerstaja. Mm-hmm. Lakers money line minus 125 against the Pistons tonight.
43:15
I did at, add Matt Fitzpatrick to win the Masters 35 to one. We'll repeat what Wes said earlier though. I, I... Look, I played it, played it small.
43:24
I don't think his number's gonna move too much, uh, from this 35 to one range, so y- no re- you don't have to rush. You can wait probably till week of the Masters.
43:33
I'm thinking he should be, like, 30-ish, something like that, Gil. So I put in a small bet, 35, uh, to one. And then, uh, let's see.
43:40
A couple college basketball bets I've made for Sweet 16 here this morning, just watching some of these numbers move. Grabbed eight with Texas and laying two and a half with Houston.
43:50
That, uh, Texas-Purdue game been on the move a little bit here this morning. All sevens or six and a halfs on the board now with Purdue favored. Oh, I did have a college basketball play that I made as well. I took St.
44:00
John's plus the seven against Duke. That's the only one I've played so far. Only one I've played so far on the, on the line. Otherwise, just the, uh, the old Todd Wishnæv live betting, uh, train on these. Love it. So St.
44:12
John's plus seven. That is on Friday night. But I haven't played any of the, uh, Thursdays. Thinking about, thinking about Houston, but I don't know. Illinois could, uh...
44:24
That, that's gonna be an interesting game 'cause that's... I think that's the most interesting... Well, I don't know. Arkansas or Arizona. These are great games. Illinois-Houston Thursday night. They really are.
44:32
Arkansas-Arizona Thursday night. St. John's-Duke Friday. Michigan State-UConn Friday. I mean, again, the upside of not having upsets, hell of a Sweet 16. Mm-hmm. We've done all we can do, sir. Yes, we have.
44:46
Thank you as always. I never thank Kelly. I thank you. I always thank the people behind. I never thank Kelly. Hey. Thank you, Kelly Billings. Thanks for being here. Thank you. [laughs] Prop Points next.
44:56
Enjoy from Visa, the sports betting network.
A Numbers Game
Listen on
Apple Podcasts
Apple Podcasts
Pocket Casts
Pocket Casts
Castro
Castro
Recent episodes
A Numbers Game | September 17, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 17, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
