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Mar 24, 2025
A Numbers Game | March 24, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | March 24, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of another of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. What was I about to say right there? VSiN.com Game Plus- Uh, another game.
0:15
[laughs] iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Billings. What's happening, party people? How you doing? Hope your brackets are good. Hope you're still in Survivor.
0:29
Uh, hope any contests you're in are going well. Hope you made money betting. It's the greatest event on earth. It's gonna be different moving forward.
0:35
As we said, we started the show by saying, "I think it's gonna be different," right?
0:38
The, the transfer portal has made this different, and I'm not so sure that streak of double digits getting to the Sweet 16, which just barely continued with Arkansas getting into the Sweet 16, uh, since 2008, I'm not sure that's not getting snapped some year soon here, where it's just gonna be all single digits.
0:54
And again, all four top seeds, all those predictions of one, one, one, one getting to the, uh, Final Four may yet prevail here, uh, in this tournament. Wes Reynolds standing by.
1:03
And matter of fact, let's bring Wes in for our, uh, Numbers Game tradition here. Um, Wes, good morning to you, sir. How are you? Good morning, Gil. I'm well. How are you, sir? I'm doing very well.
1:12
Before we get into, uh, your com- well, first of all, let me, let me just say that, that part that I just mentioned. Do you feel that that is, uh, the driving...
1:19
Do, do you feel that the transfer portal has changed this forever moving forward?
1:26
In p- in part, yes, because I think if you look even, even at the top teams going into this tournament and still left in this tournament, go down every roster and see where these players started.
1:38
And like you'll see Walter Clayton at Florida, he started at Iona. Ji- Jai Broome at Auburn, he started at Morehead State.
1:46
So all of these guys that don't get recruited by the high major programs end up there because of the portal and, and they get developed at these middle to lower major programs, and they wanna play on a bigger stage.
2:00
That's only natural, and then now you've got the money involved. So of course they're gonna go to these bigger programs.
2:05
And, you know, it's just very rare to see kind of a team of, a team of seniors, uh, stay together for multiple years.
2:13
You kind of had that a little bit at McNeese State, even though a lot of those kids transferred in from other programs.
2:19
But McNeese kind of ran it as far as they could, which is to win a game and then go to the second round and bow out. So I think that's what you're gonna see.
2:27
And then the fact that you have this conference consolidation now. I believe this is the, the, the lowest amount of conferences that we have had in, in, in well over 20 years. You've got pretty much the- Four...
2:41
yeah, four now... that's it. Four now. SEC, Big 10, Big 12, and then the lone Duke in, in the ACC. So, you know, you don't have the Missouri Valley. You don't have the Ohio Valley.
2:52
You don't have the West Coast Conference or the Mountain West or add in any conference you want, and that's just the way it is because, because football runs television, and that's why you have these super conferences.
3:03
That's why it kinda, you know, gave me a gripe when everybody would talk about, "Oh, they didn't play this schedule." It's like, "You guys at ESPN and Fox and CBS and all the major networks, you wanted this.
3:15
You started this 'cause you offer all this money, so now you get 20 teams in a conference, so of course they're not gonna play a balanced schedule."
3:23
Yeah, and, and, you know, I harken back to 1985, you remember it well, Wes, um, where three Big East teams got to the Final Four, right? Georgetown beat a Chris Mullen, Walter Berry, Mark Jackson, St.
3:36
John's team in one semi. And then, uh, Villanova beat Memphis, I believe it was, in the other. Yeah. So you had Villanova and Georgetown. True. Keith, Keith Lee being the star of Memphis in those days.
3:46
And there was Villa- and then obviously Villanova-Georgetown, one of the biggest upsets ever, where Villanova shot 79% from the field and lo- and won by two against Georgetown in just the, one of the more amazing nights in college basketball history.
3:59
But if you get three teams from the same conference now to the Final Four, it ain't quite the same, is it? It's not.
4:05
And, and look, there's a possibility that you can have that when you have seven, I think seven of 16- Yeah... in the SEC.
4:13
But it could be OG SEC, like an Auburn or a Tennessee, and then throw in, uh, uh, uh, uh, these other schools like Arkansas.
4:22
Now they've been in the SEC a long time, but they were in the Southwest Conference in, in, in the, in the 1980s. So you're getting them all spread out. It, it just doesn't seem the same.
4:31
It doesn't seem like, you know, Arizona is a true Big 12 team or, uh, or if Oregon would advance that they're a true Big 10 team.
4:39
I was just marveling last night because that was the last game on the air, by the way, Oregon and Arizona, and, uh, unfortunately the big redhead, Bill Walton, is no longer with us, so he couldn't say the fate of Western civilization is in the balance here- Yes...
4:52
between Ore- Oregon and Arizona. But, you know, that's Pac-12 After Dark. It was gonna be Pac-12 Daybreak with all the reviews that we had at the end of that game.
5:00
But, uh, uh, nevertheless, the, uh, Big 12 has an extra team with Arizona.
5:05
What, uh, as we go, by the way, Oregon was my last survivor play and, uh, at 19 to four, I felt like I was a genius, and then Arizona just dominated them after that.
5:14
The fact that it even got close at the end was kind of shocking, 'cause I thought Arizona was just, they, they, they just got to the boards with so much more energy than Oregon did.
5:23
There were so many balls that were a- you know, were available to be rebounded by both teams and, and it looked like for a big spell of that game, Oregon had no interest in it.
5:32
So Arizona gets there again with a 17-year college basketball player, Caleb Love, uh, as their star. Uh, as you look at the...
5:39
Before we get to who you, if you were making a bet right now to win it all, who would you make? Before we get to that, what Sweet 16 games did you immediately say to yourself, "That's a bet"?
5:50
None yet, because I think the, the, the numbers are, are really tight. I'm gonna be, uh, looking at, looking at those, uh, this afternoon and, uh, you know, seeing. Because now we at least have time.
6:00
Because when these are all, you know, four days in a row, you, you don't have a lot of time really, really to look at it.
6:06
You kinda go with your first instinct immediately, and, uh, you don't wanna have recency bias on the basis of, of what you just saw and then, you know, if there's an injury that popped up.
6:16
But I think, I think when I did look initially, it's hard to say, but Duke against Arizona. D- Duke still looks like the best team in this tournament. Mm-hmm. I know Mount St.
6:28
Mary's and Baylor, that's not a murderer's row, even though Baylor's a solid team. But Duke to me, I, I think still, they didn't really show a chink in the armor.
6:37
If you look at the, the three, uh, other number one seeds, if you look at, at Auburn, eh, they were a little shaky in the first round, uh, against Alabama State.
6:46
A little sloppy, and then they got down to Creighton at the half. Creighton I think hit nine threes in the first half. So you saw a little bit there with Auburn.
6:54
You saw Florida I thought really got taken out of their offense yesterday, and credit to UConn. They really defended well and, and slowed the game down.
7:02
And then Houston got out to a lead against Gonzaga, and Gonzaga came firing back, uh, that late game on Saturday, and Houston was just kinda able to hang on. But meanwhile, Duke, Duke has been rolling.
7:14
So you're probably gonna see some movement with that Duke game. I think it's nine. I wouldn't be shocked if it got to 10 by Thursday night. Yeah, what was that BYU total, 170-something?
7:25
That, I mean, that, that's expected that it would be that high. BYU, Bama, uh, what was it guys, 172 is that in that game? Yeah, it's now 175- Yeah. Wow... and a half- Wow... that I, that I, that I am seeing.
7:36
Like we're- Yeah... seeing movement on that like we've seen in like NIT and CBI totals. Uh, like if, if you're still betting those games, there's, there's opportunities there.
7:45
And oh by the way, and we've seen it in the NCAA tournament, if you like overs, bet 'em early.
7:49
And I know this is kind of an old school credo, overs early, unders late, but it's absolutely worked out that way, 'cause you have seen three or four totals all the way about, a- already in this NCAA tournament where these have middled.
8:02
You know, where if you're getting the early number, you're cashing the ticket. If you're betting the late steam, you're losing. Man, there's a eight and a half out there on that Duke l- uh, Duke game too, Wes.
8:12
Look, it looks like this is coming down? This is a little weird.
8:16
Yeah, I'm seeing, I'm seeing mostly nine, but, uh, I, I do think Duke, I, I think that they o- that they overwhelm Arizona a little bit just with all posit- all, at all positions, and the fact that you've got the number one pick in the draft and the guy that's gonna win the College Player of the Year as a freshman.
8:32
He did not look injured at all. We were kind of worried a little bit about his health coming into the tournament. He looked just fine, that being Cooper Flagg.
8:40
Yeah, I, I just think the UConn thing deserves one more mention, which is, 'cause, 'cause obviously we mentioned them earlier too, but it just, we do shows here obviously five days a week.
8:49
In the morning after sporting events, we, you know, there's always a, a narrative.
8:54
If UConn wins that game against Florida, not only does the formula, does the formula look clear, right, in terms of who's, you know, what bucket of team's the champions coming from, 'cause Florida's the only fly in the ointment.
9:05
But from a UConn perspective, our entire, right, sports media's entire narrative- Mm-hmm...
9:10
today is, "Oh, well, maybe we should be talking about this three-peat possibility that hasn't happened since UCLA won their seventh in a row in 1973."
9:20
And from a betting perspective, Wes, we would probably go into this mode of, "Well, you can't get in front of UConn now. You can't bet against them in any game," right? No matter who they played at that point.
9:32
Probably true. Yeah, no, no question about it. And, and, and it would probably change the narrative a little bit too because the tournament I think has been predictable, and that's what you're gonna hear- Mm-hmm...
9:43
across a bunch of platforms today. Even though UConn not exactly like the sleeper, the Cinderella, because they've won two in a row, now they, they were an eight seed.
9:52
But yeah, you've seen a lot of predictability here, and we mentioned it early, earlier in the segment that you just haven't seen a lot of those upsets.
10:00
The 10 seed that you mentioned, Gil, is Arkansas, who has, what, four or five, five-star McDonald's All-Americans- That's right... players.
10:07
Uh, you know, that's why it wasn't shocking even though that was an upset point spread wise, but it's like Arkansas' got a hell of a lot of talent. You know, th- this isn't, uh, this isn't, you know, mid-major dom.
10:17
This isn't St. Peter's from a few years ago going to the Elite Eight as a 15 seed. So yeah, those are gonna be fewer and far between, so I think it would've changed that narrative for certain.
10:27
But, but I think we got good match-ups at least in the Sweet 16, because that's what the networks want. They want maybe that one Cinderella so they can tell that story, and then they want that Cinderella to die.
10:37
[laughs] They want that Cinderella out. They do not want a St. Peter's in the Elite Eight. They do not want Loyola Chicago in the Final Four.
10:45
They absolutely do not want that, and they're not gonna get it based on this slate of teams this year.
10:50
Yeah, that's the flip side of, of, you know, being chalky is that now you have in the Sweet 16 really almost as great a match-ups as you could possibly want, right, across the board with a rare exception.
11:01
So that's, that's the flip side of this. Your Final Four is still intact, right, Wes? It is, uh, that being Auburn, uh, Texas Tech, Duke, and Tennessee. Okay.
11:11
He's got a couple outliers in there, Texas Tech and Tennessee, uh, all intact. Um, Texas Tech is gonna be a very popular survivor play. So there's again, survivor strategy with folks.
11:21
If you're behind, the, the move to make, the optimal strategy move would be to take Arkansas, the, the seed that, the 10 seed that gets you points, while everybody else would get knocked out with Texas Tech.
11:34
But now do you have the cojones to do that in practice is another story. Well- More with Wes on the other side.
11:39
Um, more college basketball with him, and we will finally get to that numbers game tradition, amusing announcer remarks throughout the tourney. That's next. Numbers game. VSAN, V Sports Betting Network.
11:59
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12:07
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12:29
That's J-U-I-C-E-R-E-E-L. Download Juice Reel today. We get tweets at Beat of the Book, always appreciate this, uh, all the feedback. Xavier82, "I'm riding with you Gil. Guardians under 82 and a half."
12:42
Let's go, baseball. 72-plus hours away. Commish, at Pick5 Commish, "No hate for the unfunny Capital One commercials? Chuck, Spike Lee, et cetera, that they keep beating us-" Oh... over the head with each year." Oh.
12:54
Oh, I'm so with you. I'm glad, I'm glad this was brought up. Yeah, they're so bad. Every single one of them. Even, even- Have, have you ever laughed at any of them? I'm gonna go back before the tournament.
13:03
One of the commercials that drives me the most nuts is Jennifer Garner on her farm or whatever- Oh... and be like, "You might know me my, from my other job." No. No, Jennifer Garner, you don't do any acting anymore.
13:12
Nobody knows you from your other job. Commish adds, he says, "Also, can we stop with the incessant replay reviews in the last two minutes?" Oh, Commish, I've been crying about this all college basketball season.
13:23
You know what we should do here? We should really stop this nine-point game with, uh, 30 seconds left to really review this ad nauseam. It's the worst.
13:31
Keno Walker, "Yesterday cracks talking about staying out of jail, now it's the interrogation wall from Tyler Shoemaker. March Madness fans can get a bit crazy close to the, uh, end, so everyone be safe out there."
13:41
And Jack Olick where he, uh, tweets again. He says, "Gil, bringing my daughter Jackie to Vegas for her birthday next weekend. Hoping to stop by to say hi to you and Kelly next Monday.
13:48
Will give you the correct pronunciation of our last name, but you're pretty close." [laughs] We look forward to meeting you. Um- I look forward to the pro- correct pronunciation.
13:56
Uh, Jesse Welch, "I hate to incite listener on listener crime here, but the person who tweeted that Blake Griffin is bad for commercials is insane. He might be the funniest NBA player along with Jeff Teague."
14:06
[laughs] I agree with you about Blake Griffin. And finally Corbin, uh, 'cause we read a bunch more of these, "Preach. Screw HBO. I'm still pissed off at them for canceling the Winning Time, the Lakers dynasty show.
14:15
They had a bunch of characters that were played well even if some weren't completely true, AKA Jerry West. It was so good and we only got two seasons."
14:21
I said throughout the run of that show, I'm like, "What are they doing to Jerry West? Why are they killing Jerry West on this show?"
14:26
I'm- But this is, this is by the way because I, uh, am so disappointed with White Lotus.
14:30
I mean, I was, I, I was, uh, uh, you know, I was kind of joking about the HBO remark, but you and I, I don't think have more on the same page been upset about something of a, as the Winning Time and what happened- No...
14:40
with that. We loved that. Loved that show. Season One, are you kidding me? It was great. It was great.
14:44
Time for another numbers game tradition after the, uh, first two rounds of March Madness, the most amusing announcer remarks segment that begins with what we went over Friday, for two of them were on Thursday.
14:56
Uh, this is Steve Lapus, color guy, uh, in the McNeese game against Clemson. You can jack up the music a little, guys. He says, "You need a three here 'cause you need two threes."
15:06
That was in a 68-62 game with 19 seconds left. Thanks, Steve. We do need three here 'cause you need two threes. Deb Antonelli, color, "The madness of day one," she says, "We're not even halfway through the day. Oh, boy."
15:20
That was with eight minutes left in the Gonzaga-Georgia game with Gonzaga up 24. The average margin of victory of the first eight games, 16.875 points, with only Clemson-McNeese artificially close. Yeah, more madness.
15:33
Dan Bonner, to the weekend. Dan Bonner, color, for the Ole Miss-Carolina game. Carolina down 66-61 to Ole Miss with just over a minute left, "You get the feeling this is a must score for Carolina."
15:47
Clark Kellogg in studio, "Reminding everyone the tournament is win and go on, lose and go home." [laughs] "Agony for those who lose, excitement and exhilaration for those who keep playing."
15:57
[laughs] Yeah, Clark, you're right. Oh, man. Not to be outdone, the always milk toast Grant Hill. Grant Hill, who seems like a lovely guy, seems like a lovely guy. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Lovely family.
16:10
To me, a wildly talented and beautiful. But man, say something. Say something. This is, uh, Grant Hill, Baylor hanging, he goes, "Great awareness, great leaper, Baylor hanging in," as they lose to Duke by 23.
16:23
Was that, was that the game, too, that they couldn't get the pronunciation right on the kid's name? Oh, what? Yeah. I th- I think it was, yeah, yeah. He says things like, "Gonna need this toughness down the stretch."
16:34
He has, like, that Bill Raf- Rafferty, uh, Raftery inflection also. Dan Bonner again, Illinois round of 32 down eight to Kentucky with just over two minutes left. They clang a three-point try that goes out of bounds.
16:46
"Kevin, you got the feeling that was a must score possession for Illinois." Bonner's great at that. [laughs] He's, he's great at telling you what is a obvious must [laughs] score possession.
16:55
Stan Van Gundy in the Kentucky-Tennessee game. Or no, Kentucky about to play Tennessee. He said, "Kentucky is gonna have to try to beat Tennessee for the third time this season. Never easy."
17:04
The biggest sports cliche- Yeah, yeah... that isn't true ever. Spiro Dedis. Is that how you pronounce it, Spiro Dedis? Yeah.
17:12
Spiro Dedis, who can make a, uh, layup to put the game at nine to eight sound like it's winning the NBA championship. He says, "Buckle up, down the stretch we come."
17:21
That was with Michigan State up nine on the free throw line to increase the lead over New Mexico with under four minutes to play. [laughs] And then finally, Lisa Byington, Jalen Rose, and Robbie Hummel.
17:33
Oh, my God, that trio. First of all, Lisa Byington, you don't have to be Beth Mowins light. Why do you have to talk like this when you're doing a game? We don't need that.
17:44
Lisa Byington, uh, Jalen Rose, there was a floater that's got scored in the Oregon, uh, Arizona game, and Jalen Rose immediately starts singing The Floaters' Float, Float On, which is like Stuart Scott SportsCenter stuff.
17:56
Like, uh, you probably shouldn't do that during a game. And then Robbie Hummel On a, uh, sky hook by a supreme cook of Oregon. Mental error on the goal tend by Arizona.
18:05
That ball was not going in on a supre- [laughs] on a supreme cook sky hook that totally looked like it was going in, and he kept saying it over and over again.
18:13
Announcers throughout the, uh, college basketball tournament, just absolutely annoying. Wes, is there a particular group of announcers that annoy you more than the others? Oh, man.
18:23
Uh, th- th- that's, that's, that's tough to determine, uh, as I'm listening to that, uh, music. I was waiting for you to go Gene Rayburn, Gil- [laughs]... like Match Game and go, "Dumb Dora is so dumb. How dumb is she?"
18:35
How dumb is she? Yeah. I, I, I lo- I lo- I love that. Uh, but yeah, y- you get, you get the cliches going on. I, I will give a shout-out to Steve Lapas, though. He did make me laugh.
18:44
He was on the crew with Andrew Catalon, uh, during the, uh, St. John's Arkansas game, and he had the two bigs w- for Arkansas in foul trouble, and the one guy, Big Z, Visnic, had four fouls.
18:55
He goes, "What would you do s- here, Steve?" Steve's like, "I'd let him foul out, to be honest with you." [laughs] It just made me laugh. It's like, "Let, let him, let him foul out.
19:04
Just leave him in there," 'cause the other big guy, Aidoo, had four fouls. So, uh, that did at least make me chuckle.
19:10
But yeah, you do get into these, uh, these cliches where it's like, "Okay, it's, uh, 64 to 62, 35 seconds left. Need to stop here. You need to stop here." [laughs] Once you've cut it to two, it's like, "Oh, really?
19:22
No, you need to just let them score," and then there'll be five seconds left and the game is over. So man, you, you, you get that a lot.
19:29
Uh, we were lamenting over the break, Gil, about the NCAA tournament, where we don't wanna be the old guys here, but it's not the same. No. It's just not the same.
19:38
I was watching a YouTube video last night with some buzzer beaters, and the ones that happened within the last several years, I didn't even recognize or remember because I looked at the generic floor designs, which is like a real pet peeve of mine, and I couldn't remember them.
19:52
But you look in the 1980s or the 1990s, like, "Oh, I remember that. That was in the Omni in Atlanta." Right. "That was in the Meadowlands. That was in Salt Lake City." Right.
20:00
You know, Danny Ainge going coast to coast for BYU against Notre Dame. I'll always remember Omni in Atlanta. These other ones I don't remember.
20:07
I don't remember what arena these were in or what towns they were in, and, and I think that takes away. I hate these generic floor designs. Agree completely. The Omni in Atlanta was such a great example of that.
20:17
If you're, if you're of a certain age, you remember exactly what Wes is talking about. Capital Center, right, in Landover- Yeah. Oh, yeah...
20:23
had a certain look to it, where they never turned the lights on, um, that, that brightly, quite frankly. Uh, okay. If someone came now to you and said, "Wes, I wanna make a bet to win it all," where's the value?
20:36
I- in terms of the value, it's a little hard to find, 'cause I, like I said, and, and this isn't reinventing the wheel here, I think Duke is, is clearly the team to beat right now.
20:45
And, uh, I don't wanna say I'd be shocked if they didn't win, but they, they've been the best team, I think, so far. So I think, you know, maybe to reach the Final Four, if you wanna go with Texas Tech at plus 320.
20:58
Oh, wow. I bet that before the tournament at six to one because I think that they could get Florida, and especially if they get the kid Williams back that did not play, uh, i- in the, in the first couple games.
21:09
You know, and then you might get Texas Tech here at full strength, and now you got some, some days in between.
21:14
Uh, so if you get, uh, the, the injured player that was injured in the Big 12 tournament back, I think they're at full strength. But, you know, I, I think probably that would be a way to go.
21:26
Maybe you could fade Houston in the Midwest region in Indianapolis, even though Houston will travel. 'Cause you've got almost, like, three home teams, by the way, in Indianapolis.
21:35
You, of course, have Purdue, who's the longest shot playing Houston, and then you have Tennessee and Kentucky, who will travel really well to Lucas Oil Stadium in Indy.
21:44
So Houston of the one seed seems to be the most vulnerable to me. Interesting. Okay. Uh, golf real quick. You did not have Viktor Hovland at the Valspar, or did you? No, I did not.
21:55
Uh, Kelly, Matt, and I had about everybody else. Yeah. But didn't, didn't have Viktor Hovland, considering he was 169th in strokes gained putting coming into this week. Oh, by the way, he was second this weekend.
22:07
Uh, and, uh, V- Viktor Hovland even said after the round, "God, I didn't think I was gonna win." He shot 80 at the Players Championship last week to miss the cut.
22:16
So this is a funny game, but Kelly and I, and I'll give Kelly the hat tip on this, on long shots, we were like, "You're probably never getting this guy at this big of a price."
22:25
And now you certainly aren't because he's probably gotten a lot of Masters bets this morning. Yeah, just, uh, just replaying in my mind how many missed birdie putts I saw from Shane Lowry over the weekend.
22:35
Good times, good times. Masters. Masters just 17 days away. Houston Open and Valero in between. Long Shots, Wes, Kelly, and Matt. Thank you, Wes. Appreciate it, man. Thank you, guys. NFL picks one and two next.
22:50
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With the Sharp Plays, you're joining a team that's never had a losing year. What do you have to lose? Start today. Get access to the best betting insights at sharpplays.com. Uh, we get tweets, we get texts.
23:44
Here's the tweet from Trip Tepper. Uh, Trip Tepper talking about Kenny Smith, talking about the announcers.
23:50
He said, uh, "Kenny Smith gets the Announcer Said What award for smugly declaring everyone stupid for calling the Maryland buzzer beater a travel." I noted that as well. I was like, "Okay, that was completely smug."
24:03
It's not stupid. It was kinda three and a half steps Um, fake follower still getting a laugh from the wee, wee, wee pig hater with his barbecue this weekend. I will have a pulled pork sandwich.
24:13
[laughs] I'm still laughing at it. Great show. That's funny. And Stevie Fezzik has texted in. He goes, uh, and these are actually really good suggestions.
24:20
He says, "The worst commercial was the Daisy cottage cheese commercial." Mm-hmm. "Only Daisy will do." Uh, Steve goes on to say, "Just because all cottage cheese is exactly the same, how can that be your catchline?
24:32
Could anyone really distinguish Daisy from their five competitors? Not to mention, I hate cottage cheese." Uh, but he says he, his vote for the worst commercial is, "We quilt this city."
24:42
He says, "We quilt this city," is the worst commercial. March Madness, four days of that, of just the same commercials over and over and over again.
24:50
Yeah, this, so this is where I'll push back on the cottage cheese one 'cause I, I, I know where he's coming from. Five competitors? There's five competitors in the cottage cheese business?
24:58
'Cause, like, that's the only brand I can name. I don't understand the commercials when they're like, "Avocados from Mexico." And you're like, "Why do I need a commercial for avocados?
25:06
I just go to the grocery store and fi- find avocados." Like, you don't really need to se- I know they exist. True. It's very true, Kelly. It's a good point about avocados. You're right.
25:16
There, there are some where you're like, "What, what is, what is this getting at? Why do we need this?" Like, I can't believe it's not butter. Like, we get it. It's margarine. There's like- [laughs]...
25:22
there's like three brands. Like, we're... What are we doing? Um- Duracell batteries. Can we talk, can we have a little brief NFL aside before we get back to college basketball? Yes, we can.
25:32
Um, so there's the number, we, we can bet on the number one pick. We can bet on the number two pick. Now, the number one pick, Cam Ward, prohibitive favorite, he remains.
25:39
While all of us were watching college basketball, Cam Ward remains the prohibitive favorite to be the number one pick in the NFL draft.
25:47
Um, so right now, Cam Ward is, you know, minus, at, at MGM it's as high as minus 1,100. You might be able to find minus 700. At DraftKings, you see their FanDuel minus 750, but you get the idea. It's Cam Ward.
26:01
Any which way this goes, even if Tennessee just hangs onto it. By the way, you believe Tennessee will pick Cam Ward if they hang onto it? I don't know. It's get- these numbers are coming back down a bit, Gil, and
26:15
it's, it's been a little quiet out of the Tennessee camp, I feel like, recently. Yeah. I mean, yes, I'm still fairly confident it's gonna be Cam Ward, but I don't know.
26:26
I, we're not hearing the same types of things we heard a week, two weeks ago. If a, if a team is trading with Tennessee, are you confident that it's for Cam Ward, for, to, to pick Cam Ward? Yes. I think I am, too.
26:36
Which is, which is a good point for the odds, yeah. Because if you're trading up to get anybody else, you're doing this wrong, 'cause you can get them where you're probably at. Now, what about the number two pick?
26:46
This is somewhat more interesting. I made bets. You, oh, you did make bets. Yeah. Okay.
26:51
Right now, again, just as a refresher, uh, NFL draft order 2025, um, the Tennessee Titans are your, are your number one pick right now on the clock, a month away still for the, uh, 2025 NFL draft, followed by the Cleveland Browns, who are quarterback needy,
27:10
but a lot of them are mocked. You know, a lot of mocks have them going with Abdul Carter at number two. The Giants are third, quarterback needy. The Patriots, who are not quarterback needy, are fourth.
27:21
Jacksonville, who I believe are quarterback needy, but they don't, are fifth. [laughs] For real, right. Um, so the number two pick, Abdul Carter, is the favorite, but not by much, 'cause Shador is right there.
27:33
It's not quite a coin flip, but it's minus 125, plus 115. You basically have a dime line at DraftKings and BetMGM. Cam Ward is six to one at Drem- okay, there's a big difference- Yeah...
27:47
in Cam Ward's number two pick odds. Six to one at DraftKings, as high as 18 to one at BetMGM. Travis Hunter, fourth. Jackson Dart, fifth. The Jackson Dart thing is kinda interesting. Did you bet this? That's what I bet.
28:02
I think I might do that. Said it end of last week. It's the, with all this conversation about...
28:07
I, I, and look, I don't know what's, maybe it's a complete smokescreen, but man, has there been a lot of conversation and not much of it positive around Shador Sanders here, um, you know, s- I mean, since, since basically the season's ended.
28:18
But, uh, into the combine and some of these reports, I mean, uh, not, not just the, how he's handled some of the front office stuff, but then there's qu- i- all these questions more and more seemingly about his arm strength and everything.
28:30
Look, I, there's just to me, Gil, where we look at where the quarterbacks land, I don't know that there's that big of a difference between Shador Sanders and Jackson Dart. Been saying it for, for two months.
28:41
And if you're giving me, uh, like I bet that 80 to one at M- MGM last week, um, and it's still up there. I checked, checked this last night when I put this graphic together. How much did they let you have on it?
28:50
Um, I don't know what I bet. I b- I only bet, like, 50 bucks or something, so maybe they'll let you, uh, get more than that. Um, I, so g- circle it back to the Browns side of it, too. Osaka break.
29:01
What do you do after you break, Kelly? You consolidate- Consolidate... the break. That's what you gotta do next. Nice. All right, good, good. Mm-hmm, mm-hmm. Keep, keep, keep track of that for us. I'm sorry, go ahead.
29:09
[laughs] Sorry. Like, the Browns thing. Okay, I, I'm not gonna sit here and say having two great pass rushers is, isn't bad. Like, that's a good thing.
29:17
That's a good thing, but they did just get Myles Garrett back, right? Mm-hmm. Yes, correct.
29:20
I feel like this whole, like, Abdul Carter to the Browns, that, that thought process made a lot more sense when Myles Garrett was a little bit more up in the air. Don't you think?
29:31
Like, this is- I mean, this would be a good thing to have Cleve on, Cleve TA, our buddy who's a, uh, huge Browns fan. I mean, do you... Listen, or do you go the route of let's just have such a ridiculously
29:47
star-driven defense- Right... with Garrett and Carter for years now, that we'll worry about, [laughs] we'll worry about the rest later. And by the rest, I mean, oh yeah, there's still the quarterback thing.
30:01
Okay, the only way I'm... I'm not saying that's impossible. The only way I believe that could be the case, though, is if they just don't think Shador Sanders or Jackson Dart is all that good. Which is very possible.
30:11
Which is possible. Right? Which is possible. Every time Faleek is on, I go, "What are the chances that none of these guys are any good at quarterback?" He goes, "Oh, it's very much a possibility." Yep.
30:20
Who's, uh, who's J- who's three, Giants, right? Again, just as a reminder, yeah, the Giants are three. Just a reminder, the C- the Cleveland Browns quarterback depth chart is- [laughs]... Deshaun Watson, Kenny Pickett.
30:31
Yeah. Remember that happened.
30:33
Okay, a- and sure, there's the argument that for what I'm talking about with quarterbacks, you could say, "Well, they just brought in Kenny Pickett," but do we really believe Kenny Pickett's the, like, the...
30:42
Kenny Pickett, Deshaun Watson is somehow the plan for the next couple years? If that's your plan, I think you're in trouble. No, I thought the Browns got fleeced on the DTR for Kenny Pickett trade. Right. Yeah.
30:51
The fact that they traded a fifth round pick in that deal.
30:54
And I, I'm not gonna give even s- uh, single credit 'cause I think I saw this joke about 17 times on Twitter over the weekend, so I, I know T- uh, Timo Risk, is that how you say his name over at Pro Football Focus?
31:04
I, I know he tweeted it out as well.
31:06
But, uh, yeah, the old Travis Hunter to the Giants thing makes a lot of sense, Gil, 'cause, uh, you know, with Jameis there, he could be playing, uh, both sides of the ball just on one play with Jameis' interceptions.
31:16
[laughs] By the way, the, the Giants quarterback depth chart, for those who need a reminder, and by those I mean me, is Jameis, Tommy DeVito. Those are the only two quarterbacks under contract currently.
31:29
I, I might get, uh, I might get suckered into betting a Malik Nabers Offensive Player of the Year.
31:34
And did you see, by the way, this has nothing to do with the number one and two pick, did you see the latest Aaron Rodgers thing? They had a, uh, he and the Steelers had a positive discussion, and, uh,
31:43
you know, they'll revisit it. Well, what do we do? What, what? If I'm the Steelers, I'm like, "Dude, are you playing here or not?" You gotta put him on the clock somehow, right?
31:52
Like, especially after what Hayward said too, right? Like, you're just... You're, you're not any organization, you're the Steelers. I, I don't, I don't- Have more respect for yourself. We need an answer.
32:04
The Steelers quarterback depth chart, for those who need the reminder, has nothing to do with Russell Wilson or Justin Fields. Is there anybody on there? Remember Justin Fields is a Jet.
32:13
The S- the Steelers quarterback room, I know I love this expression- We got The Room... The Room, is Mason Rudolph, Skylar Thompson. Oh, yeah, I forgot about Mason Rudolph going. Back, back with the Steelers, so yeah.
32:26
Anyway. Yeah, gotta do something there. Anyway, anyway, back to the number two pick. I do think if, if Jackson darted 80 to one, talk about dart, literally throwing a dart. Mm-hmm. That's a heck of a dart to throw. Yeah.
32:38
I, I like it. Um- 'Cause all it takes is one team to just become enamored of him, and that's all you need. I mean, exactly that, and hey, it's still, this is early in the process still, right?
32:47
Like, I'd rather take some of these longer shots and we're- What if the Browns secretly love him? I don't know. I hope they do. Very well, [laughs] very much hope they do. Who are sitting at number two right now.
32:56
And, and, and going back to what you brought up with the first one, Browns or someone trades, right? Someone could get, "Hey, we really want him. We're gr- we're trading up." Yeah. No, 100%. Um,
33:08
I just get the feeling that in all of this, Shedeur feels like the guy who is destined to f- to drop. At least a month out, it just feels like- Yeah...
33:19
the only consistent thing I know is that no one seems to love Shedeur. Where is he, where is he mocked generally? It's the only consistent thing we've heard. Right now it, could it be all a smokescreen? Yes, it could.
33:31
Yeah. But it's the only consistent thing we've heard. It's the only consistent thing. Now, we're a month out. Could that change between now and then? Of course it could. Of course it could.
33:39
Although, you know, some mock drafts, Yahoo has Shedeur in the top three, so it's not, uh, universal. New York Times has him going early. Coming back. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:56
Back on our numbers game. She couldn't consolidate the break. She couldn't do it. Back on serve. Get it together, Naomi. Come on. Osaka and Paolini. Um, time for our G Bank Best Bets of the Day.
34:06
Official bank of, uh, VSiN, G Bank, and, uh, all hosts, all guests, every sport, every bet they have, uh, not only at vsin.com/picks for subscribers, but also recapped at the end of every show in which those picks happen.
34:19
Um, the ones that happen on the air anyway. Um, starting with mine, uh, f- in tennis, three picks today.
34:25
In what has been a choppy tournament, we had a lot of withdrawals this weekend, like three walkovers, three, like, just retirements. What happened to, uh, with, uh, Carlito? He got beat by Goffin. Man.
34:37
Should have- He, he said he was pl- he played terribly. By the way, things that- Medvedev knocked out, Alcaraz knocked out... things that I always do on the show, right? The principal bet, 9 to 1 on Djokovic.
34:47
I gotta make this, Gil. Never made the bet. Ah. Never made the bet. Of course. I g- I got three today on the men's side. Zizou Bergs at plus 169 over Matteo Berrettini.
34:56
Joao Fonseca, who right now, I don't know if that's playable, let me check the price here on Joao Fonseca real quick. I got him at plus 104 last night. Again, VSiN subscribers, vsin.com/picks.
35:08
Right now Fonseca is, yeah, he's back to plus 104. You can play him. He's right on the number. Arthur Fils, you probably have a better number than I do, but not by much. Minus 125 as opposed to my minus 135.
35:18
That's significant. So Fils even better, uh, than what I got him at last night. Those are the three tennis plays.
35:23
And then Osaka, why we keep referring to Osaka is we have her, um, and again, she's got two break points here to break, to, uh, break again, um, against Jasmine Paolini. Yes.
35:32
We have her to win the quarter, quarter two, Q2, in Miami, and then to win the tournament as a, uh, 66 to one shot.
35:39
But the, the q- the quarter is what we're really gunning for here early, because once you win the quarter, then you have to play the Sabalenkas and Igas of the world. Um, but let's just do one step at a time.
35:48
To get to that match to perhaps win the quarter, she's gotta win today, uh, right now, early against Jasmine Paolini. I did play one Sweet 16, uh, game already, Michigan plus 7 and a half against Auburn.
36:00
That struck me as way too many points. And, uh, Tyler Shoemaker, who's coming up with his picks later, uh, he sort of corroborated that with his numbers as well. Yeah, that was the one- So I felt good about that...
36:10
that was the one that he was most off on, right? Yeah, he said, he said- He was like five points or something... yeah, he said Auburn minus two and a half by his numbers as opposed to the seven and a half point spread.
36:18
Kelay Bitalan, what do you have? Yeah, one in the association tonight, I am on the Suns, who I have bet very little of this season, so this will be scary, against, uh, the Milwaukee Bucks.
36:27
No Damian Lillard in there tonight. The Suns over their last nine games, five and four, eighth best net rating, second-best offensive rating outside of garbage time, and in that over g- uh, cleaning the glass.
36:37
Uh, they've been playing well. So, uh, th- yeah, look, this time of year I'm not betting anything big in the NBA 'cause these games can get wonky, but weekend was good, like the Suns tonight.
36:46
Um, and then one Sweet 16 bet for me. I got Florida on the opener five, had to lay 220 on it.
36:51
Uh, but that's up like six and a half now, so l- like I can get a nice, uh, nice stuffed animal or something at the CLV store when it loses.
36:58
I, I, I'm hearing a lot of love for Maryland in that game, just sort of anecdotally. I'm with you though. I think Florida could win that game by 15 points. I wouldn't be surprised.
37:07
Um, by the way, y- again, let me just say this, in the, uh, VSAN Bracket Challenge, congratulations right now, right now, this is not complete obviously, but right now in the VSAN Bracket Challenge, first prize $3,000, $5,000 in prizes, 3,000, 1,500 and 500, first, second, third place.
37:23
Omar and his, for the first three letters of his last name, Ara. Omar_Ara2361. We, uh, remind folks again what a performance that is. Couple Brandons, Sig and Parr in second and third place.
37:39
And in the VSAN bracket, I, I'll say this again, Kelly you're in 12th place. I'm coming. I'm coming for that money. Karina Mitchell in first. We don't get money, Kelly. We don't get money. We're not eligible.
37:49
Well, you know, am I g- wanna make a side bet or anything like that? Who f- who fin- who finishes higher, me or the doggie in the window over there? Oh. Oh, that's- Matt Brown?... that's what I was getting to.
37:56
Karina Mitchell first, Sean Green from the Sports Gambling Podcast. Kar- Karina, who does all of our, uh, all of our live reads. Yes.
38:03
Uh, a- actually, I mean, she's been at the network forever, great, great television director. She's 18, 11 and 1. Um, these are weighted per round, right?
38:11
So the more the, the first round does not count as much as the second round, does not count as much as the Sweet 16 and so forth.
38:17
So, uh, Sean Green is in second, Miles Gwinn, our buddy's in third, and Matt Brown and Jared Moore tied for fourth. I don't know if anybo- any members of management should be able to win. Mi- Miles gets eliminated.
38:31
Oh, you just [laughs] you just wanna keep knocking off people? [laughs] Anyway, Kelly is 12th. What, what's my record? You're 14, 15 and 1. I think I did okay over the weekend, 'cause Fr- Thursday, Friday wasn't great.
38:43
Um, and I- But I did do okay... I am in 23rd after having lost eight games in a row at one point. You know, pr- I, all I can do is speak for myself, Gil.
38:51
It makes it a lot easier when I only have to pick 10 bets instead of 20. Oh, that was rough that first day. I'm, I'm looking at these standings. Clearly I'm the man to beat here. Clearly.
38:59
[laughs] Everybody's looking over their shoulder. They're like, "Eight in a row he's lost. What if I win this thing if I lost eight in a row?" Yeah, I don't know. Yeah, I don't think it's gonna happen.
39:07
If, uh, I, I mean, I'll, I'll include Matt Brown with me and you. If Matt Brown wins it, oh boy. Oh boy. [laughs] Oh boy. We will not speak of what we are thinking.
39:16
[laughs] Uh, Carl Sack is on the Bulls tonight in the association. He's got the Bulls plus the points. Uh, and then Tyler Shoemaker joined us as well to talk both women's and men's basketball.
39:26
Uh, he is on Michigan State plus six and a half in the women's tournament, and FSU plus 11. You ever catch your name by the way? I'm, I'm tailing that. You ever get Florida State, the- Nah, I l- I looked it up earlier.
39:37
Uh, I looked it up like a week ago and I forgot it already, sorry. Uh, I will be tailing Florida State. A little Florida State fun tonight. That sounds good.
39:43
I think we've got TGL, the golf league, uh, tomorrow's golf league, sorry. Um, their finals start tonight. I think it's a best of three or something. I don't know.
39:52
I just wanna thank the crew when we did Tyler's picks up there, they put, they put women's in parentheses.
39:57
How many times do you, are you watching a game on ESPN and something will come across the crawl and you're like, "Oh my God, Georgetown only beat Howard by two? Oh, women's." Yep, yep, yep. I hear you.
40:08
Our crew does a great job. Yeah. This is why I'm, uh, this is why I bother Chris Felica. I need a track, race number, horse, name, what number horse [snorts] trainer, jockey. Okay, stop.
40:20
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40:30
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40:48
That's visa.com/gbank. Subject to credit approval. Terms and conditions apply. Uh, Naomi did get another break, now she's gonna try to consolidate. You gotta consolidate.
40:57
If you break it and you don't consolidate, there's no point in breaking. That's right. Get it done. You know that. Did you add any Masters picks? Uh, no. I've got, the two I have are Substraka,
41:08
annoying tournament from him as, again as well, uh, and then Akshay Bhatia. So Bhatia at 90 to 1, Substraka at 100 to 1. Yeah. Okay. Um- We're not running it... how many do you anticipate having?
41:20
How many do you think you'll have? Well, the, the Masters is usually the, probably the tournament, I'm not gonna say the tournament, uh, that I will have the most outright bets in.
41:30
It, this year sometimes there's one tournament that sticks out more than others, but you, I would say over the years, the Masters probably has the most outrights 'cause you do add stuff earlier, months in advance, right?
41:40
Yes, because it exists for the entire winter. Yeah, exactly. Yes, the Masters is the one where I, I, I give you, I give the golf bettor a pass on having multiple. G- g- 'cause that's what we're doing. Right.
41:49
I, I think the one that, I don't do this as much as other golf bettors have. Actually, I don't usually really do it at all.
41:54
Because I rely so much on recent form, um, the Masters is the only one I'll kinda play that game with.
42:00
Like, I, I think, uh I think Rick or Byron, who, who we had on a couple weeks ago said this about how they made a bet on a guy like in the US Open. I'm just, I can't get that far, uh, in the fu- down the road.
42:11
Like I, you just don't know what guys are gonna be like form wise, uh, when you're talking several months down the road. So Masters is usually the only tournament I do this with.
42:19
We get tweets of betting the book Master of Puppets. Uh, best one this weekend was the announcer saying over and over that Clifford was the Mountain West Player of the Year, when in fact it was Dent from New Mexico.
42:29
I missed that, that he kept, that he kept saying that. Uh, and this is from Wet Willy Colon. "That was the loudest I've ever screamed consolidate in my life." [laughs] I guess Naomi consolidated, uh, 5-3 in the first.
42:39
All right, we just gotta get her to win today, and then it'll be, uh, it'll probably be Coco Gauff in the quarterfinal for the money. Yeah, she is. Coco minus 750 versus Magda Linette today. Yeah.
42:51
Naomi is minus 425 right now live. Yeah, she was like minus three something. No, no, she was like minus 160 by, by match time today. Okay. She's a favorite to win. So we'll see. Um, again, one match at a time.
43:04
All right, so I'm on Michigan, you're on Florida, and then again, starting from where we started at the beginning of the show, the formula has not really changed. It remains Auburn, Duke, and Houston that have qualified.
43:15
Uh, all these weeks that we've been doing it this year, the, on the run-up to the tournament, the only add-ons were Tennessee and Iowa State.
43:21
We did sacrifice Iowa State, but remember they had the injury to Keyshawn Gilbert, so nothing has changed there. And the fly in the ointment remains Florida. Nothing has changed there.
43:29
And if you break down the form- the formula based on sort of categories, what you have are, you know, just sort of putting them in pockets here.
43:38
Um, it is, you know, in pocket one, again, Auburn, Duke, Houston, Tennessee. Talking about the Sweet 16, Auburn, Duke, Houston, Tennessee. Florida is singular in its own category.
43:49
Then just on the outside looking in beyond Florida, Alabama, Michigan State, Maryland, Arizona, and Ole Miss, who are sort of bumping up against the, the qualifications but can't seem to get over that hump, so they are not qualified.
44:01
And then there's the group at the bottom of six, Texas Tech, Kentucky, Purdue, Michigan, BYU, Arkansas, which the formula says has no shot whatsoever. None of them.
44:11
I think people would probably nod their head at most of that. Um, we've done all we can do. Stormy is next with Money Moves, heavy on college hoops of course.
44:19
And Matt Brown, the aforementioned Matt Brown, tied for fourth in the VSiN portion of the bracket challenge. Oh, I'm sure he'll, he'll be gloating. [laughs] Matt Brown and Stormy next.
44:29
Enjoy from VSiN, the Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music]
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