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Mar 25, 2025
A Numbers Game | March 25, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | March 25, 2025 | Hour 1
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57:47
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Transcript
0:00
Eczema isn't always obvious, but it's real, and so is the relief from EVLISS. After an initial dosing phase of 16 weeks, about four in 10 people taking EVLISS achieved itch relief and clear or almost clear skin.
0:14
And most of those people maintained skin that's still more clear at one year with monthly dosing.
0:18
EVLISS, lebrikizumab-lbkz, a 250 milligram per two milliliter injection, is a prescription medicine used to treat adults and children 12 years of age and older who weigh at least 88 pounds or 40 kilograms with moderate to severe eczema, also called atopic dermatitis, that is not well controlled with prescription therapies used on the skin, or topicals, or who cannot use topical therapies.
0:36
EVLISS can be used with or without topical corticosteroids. Don't use if you're allergic to EVLISS. Allergic reactions can occur that can be severe. Eye problems can occur.
0:43
Tell your doctor if you have new or worsening eye problems. You should not receive a live vaccine when treated with EVLISS. Before starting EVLISS, tell your doctor if you have a parasitic infection.
0:51
Searching for real relief? Ask your doctor about EVLISS and visit evliss.lilly.com or call 1-800-Lilly-RX or 1-800-545-5979. What's up, everyone? Julie Swiercinski here, along with former NHL player Nate Thompson.
1:05
We're doing a new podcast together. Here we go. The name? Energy Line with Nate and JSB. Each week we'll get together and talk about hockey, life. All topics are fair game, right? Exactly.
1:17
And you'll never know who will drop by to join us. Julie is pretty well-connected. She has text threads going that you wouldn't believe.
1:24
Listen to Energy Line with Nate and JSB on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is Mel Reid, LPGA Tour winner and six-time Ladies European Tour winner. And Kira K.
1:37
Dixon, NBC Sports reporter and host. And we've got a new podcast, Quiet Please with Mel- And Kira.
1:44
We are bringing you spicy takes on sports and pop culture, some interviews with incredible people who have figured out how to make golf their superpower.
1:51
An iHeartWomen's Sports production in partnership with Deep Blue Sports and Entertainment. You can find us on iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by e.l.f.
1:59
Beauty, founding partner of iHeartWomen's Sports. Ever wonder what it would be like to be mentored by today's top business leaders? My podcast, This Is Working, can help with that.
2:10
Here's some advice from Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, on standing out from the leadership crowd. Develop your EQ. A lot of people have plenty of brains, but EQ is do you trust me? Do I communicate well?
2:21
Develop the team, develop the people, and create a system of trust, and it works over time. I'm Dan Roth, LinkedIn's editor-in-chief. On my podcast, This Is Working, leaders share strategies for success.
2:32
Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The numbers told the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics.
2:42
This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you. It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158.
2:55
Gil Alexander, that is Kelly Bidlin, everybody. Hi, little friend. How's it going? Losing weight, uh, left and right is Kelly.
3:03
Um, but he actually knows the cause of his weight gain, unlike, uh, Mookie Betts, which is a whole nother story. Uh, yes. Yes. Yes. Very different. Yeah.
3:10
Which by the way, until, until the good news of, at least we hope it's good news, that Dave Roberts, uh, the Dodgers manager now says that Mookie has turned a corner and can actually hold down solid food.
3:21
Until we got that news, it was kind of a harrowing story. I, betw- I mean, between him and Porzingis e- earlier in the, in the month, like, man, weird, weird stories.
3:30
For those who missed it, Mookie has lost 18 pounds since right before the trip to Tokyo for the Dodgers, and, uh, they do believe now though that he will play in the opener against Tarik Skubal and the Tigers on Thursday.
3:43
But he went down to, he's down to 157 pounds. You see the picture of him with the jersey on? He looked completely skinny. No, I didn't, but I mean- Yeah... I was gonna say, that guy's already skinny enough. Yeah.
3:51
Him losing 18 pounds, that's a, that's a lot. Anyway, so for baseball itself, let alone Dodgers fans, we hope that, uh, Mookie is a go and that, uh, this is behind him.
3:59
Even though it's undiagnosed, they still have no idea what happened. I mean, that's- None whatsoever... like, that would still scare the hell out of me.
4:05
And like the, you know these guys are getting the best medical treatment on the planet. I mean, it's- Oh, for sure...
4:10
we've heard st- so many stories over the years of, uh, you know, guy, what was it, Caris LeVert when he went to the, when he went to the Cavaliers and they fi- they found a, they found like a cancerous tumor, the medical, the team doctors, you know?
4:24
It's, it's- Oh, right... just stuff like that, like they- That's right... you know, they get access to things. If he, if he doesn't get traded, they don't discover it. Right, exactly. Yeah.
4:30
Like these guys get access to things that the rest of us don't. So it's just, just kind of wild when you hear these stories about they don't know what's going on.
4:36
On the show today, Drew Dinsick will join us, in his new time slot, by the way. Yeah. Because Drew's got other things to do now, um, in terms of, uh, his media.
4:44
So we have him now in the second hour every Tuesday, Drew from the Deep Dive and Bet The Edge podcasts, both, to talk NBA and tennis with us a little later on. Paul Spohrer will join us.
4:53
We're not sure if Paul is joining us for one or two segments. Kelly has decided after being inspired by, uh, Maryland coach, uh, Kevin Willard, he has just decided to say to the guests, "Which one of you wants the ball?"
5:03
[laughs] "Which one of you?" And Spohrer is like, "Maybe, we'll see." So we don't know if it's one segment or two. We'll find out. That, that applies to multiple guests today, yeah. [laughs] That's, that's right.
5:11
That's, that's Paul and Matt Brown. Matt Brown. And Matt Brown might be in the last segment. I don't really know. We don't know if- But... we don't know if he's showing up.
5:17
Uh, we do know Al Bernstein will show up though. Al Bernstein wants to talk a little bit about George Foreman, so that's always a pleasure.
5:22
And then Will Hill will join us here momentarily, uh, to talk about all of his Sweet 16 plays and anything else he's betting these days. Um, a couple, let's go to a couple just sort of betting case studies here.
5:33
Uh, yesterday we got bounced from our future play in the Miami Open, the second half of the Sunshine Double in tennis, when Naomi Osaka lost to Jasmine Paolini in three sets. Boo. Um, yeah. Boo.
5:48
And this is just a, this is, uh, so this is for the new or newish bettors.
5:52
This is a PSA about being able to sort of handle negative variance and not being able to sort of handle negative variance and, and sort of not being on the other s- y- y- you know, being able to process that in a sort of objective way.
6:06
So when you lose a bet, you're gonna have a section of people who are, uh, they're either haters or they have the bet. They're like, "Ah, you suck, you lug," right? There's that, there's that group.
6:14
You try not to be that group. Um, so yesterday, uh, Naomi Osaka went three for 15 on break points. Now this is not an excuse, by the way. This is the other thing about a PSA for betting that w- we should say. Uh, Dr.
6:26
Bob gets a lot of criticism for this, too. When he loses bets he's always telling you, "Well, here's why we lost," and all this other- Mm. Okay. It's, it... I, I'm, I'll only speak for myself.
6:34
This is not a, and by the way, Bob doesn't mean it as an excuse either. But what it is, is tennis, right? Sometimes you are not gonna be the, on the side of positive variance. So she ends up three of 15 on break points.
6:45
By the way, Paolini was three of five at the same time, uh, while Osaka was going three of 15.
6:51
If Osaka converts just one of those 12 m- of those 12 missed chances; by the way, three of 15 is a very low perce- uh, percentage on break points in a match.
7:02
F- you, the fact that you have 15 opportunities to break is an incredible thing in a match. Um, but the point I'm trying to make is that's tennis, and sometimes it's not going to go your way.
7:14
It's sort of like the poker, it's sort of like the poker hand where you're s- all set up mathematically. All you need is for there not to be a queen on the last- Right. Yeah... on the last card- You get river...
7:22
that is flipped over, and bam, there's a queen. S- it's still, even if the handicap is good, it's still gotta go your way.
7:29
And so in the case of Osaka, just I'm just trying to point out the thin line between hitting a future or two of these versus not winning at all is she doesn't convert one of the other 12 chances, she loses to Paolini, and then right after that Coco Gauff gets bounced from her quarter, and we would've had it set up as Osaka as a favorite over Linette in the quarterfinal to try to hit our quarter future.
7:53
So I just wanna point out, once again, this is part of being a, part of being a good bettor long-term for the newer bettors is going to be able to process, hey man, w- it's still a good bet.
8:05
It was still a great handicap. By the way, if I'm, if I'm playing a future on someone not named Iga Swiatek, you know I mean business in a ladies tournament.
8:13
And, uh, it was, you know, that was the quarter to play her in. Again, seven to one, some people got better on her quarter, 66 to one we had her to win it all.
8:21
Um, in what has been a hard court season, let me be the first to say, that has not been the hard court seasons we've been accustomed to around here. Uh, sort of the, uh, the wife that is about to get divorced.
8:32
She goes, "I want the lifestyle I'm accustomed to." This has not been 2021, '22, or '23 hard courts, or '24 for that matter.
8:39
Um, this has been a hard court season where the upsets that we normally, that I normally hit on aren't manifesting, but the ridiculous upsets of the top players like the Carlos Alcarazes and the Daniil Medvedevs, and the top players like Coco, the ones that I would not necessarily predict, are actually the ones coming through.
8:59
So that's just been the nature. Nothing is ever static. But I think the, the Osaka thing is a good case study for folks who are like, it's not an excuse. Sometimes you're going to, sometimes you're...
9:09
It's just tennis, right? Sometimes it's not gonna go your way. Yes, can it be frustrating?
9:13
I'll tell you when it got frustrating for me yesterday is when Arth- Arthur Fils, our first play yesterday, then he started out like one of nine on break points, and the two of those combined, I'm like, "Is this a joke?"
9:22
Yeah. Right? But you have to be able to understand, wow, think about the thin line we had from getting bounced completely and perhaps winning at the very least the quarter at a seven to one.
9:32
That's, that's betting sometimes. By the way, we do have three tennis plays today, uh, after a one and two yesterday where Fils was the only winner ultimately.
9:40
Um, and one of those was Fonseca who was up a break in the third, and then he just gassed against De Minaur who's a, he's an Energizer bunny. Um, and then the third one we were just wrong on.
9:52
But Minette, uh, excuse me, Magda Linette, speaking of Magda Linette, plus 150 versus Paolini is the play, and I believe we're on a, we're on a really good CLV on that.
10:01
Again, this is for, uh, all subscribers, veson.com/picks. Every host, every guest, every sport, all their plays for subscribers at veson.com/picks.
10:09
Uh, played, all these were, were, uh, given out last night, and Bill Ade does that, where he puts 'em up for us.
10:15
Linette right now, and I just wanna make sure that it's, that it's in the playable range here on her, 'cause we get plus 150, and right now Linette is at plus 131. Mm, not exactly the same.
10:28
Don't, I wouldn't play it any lower than plus 135, let's put it that way. Nakashima plus 160 versus Dimitrov is, uh, play number two. I think that's way too, uh, too high on Brandon Nakashima. Plus 144 now.
10:42
Don't let it, don't get below plus 145 on that. And Gaël Monfils plus 127 against Sebastian Korda. Monfils is plus 112. That one I would not play at plus 112. So we got, again, great CLV on all of 'em.
10:56
You know what that means, Kelly. Not a damn thing in the end. Yeah, you can get a nice stuffed panda at the CLV store- Yeah. Not a damn thing... on the way out.
11:01
I, I wanna ask you about these futures, 'cause I was typing this up this morning.
11:05
On the men's side now, I don't remember the last time we've been in a tournament, I, I mean, period, that you and I have talked about that you've been betting and we looked at futures prices, which is, yes, usually the Grand Slams and then some of the other bigger ones.
11:18
But you are talking 10 guys that are 18 to one or shorter over at DraftKings to win the Miami Open now- Yeah... with the field that is remaining. That's 'cause Carlitos got bounced. It's wild, though. Yeah. Yep.
11:32
I mean, I mean, Djokovic, Zverev, Sebastian Korda down to seven to one. Like, this is, uh, it's just wild. It's just so odd. Yeah, that's too short on Korda. We're actually against him today.
11:40
Um, I, I would think everybody else, though, is justified. I don't know why Korda would be in there. But, uh, Djokovic's Ve- Sasha Zverev, De Minaur, Fritz.
11:49
You know, you could even make a case for Dimitrov even though I'm fading him today as well I, I think that's, that, that's all justified now that Carlitos is out. And there's Novak, who you called and didn't bet- Yeah...
11:58
beforehand. The other sort of case study in, in betting, yesterday, so, uh, Cam Ward finally had his pro day. He did show up.
12:05
He did have one signature pass where he was, uh, fading to or sort of flushed out to the left, threw it across his body, and it was beautiful, and everybody's going crazy.
12:14
But the, what we're looking for, for betting purposes, we're looking for a tell on anything. Like, is Tennessee absolutely going to draft Cam Ward number one?
12:23
And Kelly, uh, in addition to them sending their brass, their front office brass- Mm-hmm... which by the way, Cleveland did not. Kevin Stefanski, uh, Andrew Berry, their GM, neither were there for it.
12:35
So Cleveland is like, "We're clearly not drafting this dude. He's going one." Um, Tennessee had their social media folks out there. They had their social media folks out there and a crew, a film crew.
12:48
Isn't that the tell? More than them having their coach and their GM and all that, isn't that part the tell that they are absolutely drafting Cam Ward at this point? Yeah, this is a, a great tweet from Zach Jackson.
12:58
"Titans have their head coach, GM, team president, and more from their football staff here in Miami. In case you wanted more of a tell, Titans also have their in-house TV and website production team here for Cam Ward."
13:10
Now, maybe they're just really good forward-thinking, Gil- Or-... and they don't wanna have to do this again later. Or may- Maybe.
13:16
Or maybe it's a tremendous elaborate scheme to throw people off the scent and say, "Oh, we're drafting him. Make your offers." You could say that. And there is a, there is a draft history, right?
13:25
Like, w- I can remember the morning you woke up and you thought Rocket Ismail was going number one, and then you found out it was Russell Maryland right before the draft. Mm-hmm. Yeah. Yeah, yeah.
13:32
There was the Baker Mayfield. My, my pinned tweet still from 2018 where, you know, I w- again, the Will Hill people were like, "You knew Baker Mayfield was going number one." No, I didn't.
13:41
Nobody knew until the last few hours that Baker Mayfield was going number one. He was supposed to be in the middle of the draft. So there's still a month. We still don't know 100%.
13:49
We'll never know 100% till the, the card is actually up there- Right... and Goodell actually says the name, but it sure looks like it's Cam Ward at one. I mean, are you not...
13:57
I woke up this morning, though, when I checked those odds, I was shocked that they didn't move at all. I mean, at DraftKings, that number did not move at all. And after- It's still at what? S- minus 700.
14:07
At that, after that information, I thought we were gonna be seeing minus 1,200, minus 1,500. Is that because of the draft history, they just don't wanna get caught? I think it's that, Gil. I do.
14:16
Like, I think it's partially that. Or people are just slow to react also. Or that. We're too close to the sun on the draft, and no one [laughs] no one else is really betting it.
14:25
Uh, coming back, Will Hill, Sweet 16 next on The Numbers Game. [gentle music] Eczema isn't always obvious, but it's real, and so is the relief from EVLISS.
14:36
After an initial dosing phase of 16 weeks, about four in 10 people taking EVLISS achieved itch relief and clear or almost clear skin, and most of those people maintained skin that's still more clear at one year with monthly dosing.
14:47
EVLISS, lebrikizumab-lbkz, a 250 milligram per two milliliter injection, is a prescription medicine used to treat adults and children 12 years of age and older who weigh at least 88 pounds or 40 kilograms with moderate to severe eczema, also called atopic dermatitis, that is not well controlled with prescription therapies used on the skin or topicals, or who cannot use topical therapies.
15:05
EVLISS can be used with or without topical corticosteroids. Don't use if you're allergic to EVLISS. Allergic reactions can occur that can be severe. Eye problems can occur.
15:13
Tell your doctor if you have new or worsening eye problems. You should not receive a live vaccine when treated with EVLISS. Before starting EVLISS, tell your doctor if you have a parasitic infection.
15:21
Searching for real relief? Ask your doctor about EVLISS and visit evliss.lilly.com or call 1-800-LILLY-RX or 1-800-545-5979. [ominous music] On November 5th, 2018, at 6:33 AM,
15:35
a red Volkswagen Golf was found abandoned in a ditch out in Sleep Hole Valley. The driver's seat door was open, no traces of footsteps leaving the vehicle.
15:49
No belongings were found except for a cassette tape lodged in the player. On that tape were 10 vile- No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. Ah!... grotesque- Oh my God.
16:06
Oh my God. Oh my God... horrific stories that to this day have been kept restricted from the public until now. [laughs] Don't lick me. You Feel In This Too: A Horror Anthology Podcast.
16:24
Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. [upbeat music] It's Julie Stewart-Binks.
16:31
I'm doing a new podcast from iHeartPodcasts and the National Hockey League, and I'm paired up with one of my favorite players, the always quotable Nate Thompson.
16:39
I wore nine NHL sweaters, and I have story after story to share. And believe it or not, I have plenty to say, and not just about hockey. Believe me, he does.
16:48
Energy Line with Nate and JSB is the name of the podcast, and it's gonna be, well, it's gonna be quite the ride. We're officially linemates, Nate. We're the Energy Line.
16:59
We'll have plenty of folks join us: current players, some of my former teammates, Hall of Famers. And wait till you see some of the connections that Julie has. She has quite the Rolodex. Okay.
17:09
We'll lean into Nate's playing experience and tap into our interests away from hockey and try to do what energy lines are supposed to do: provide an emotional boost. How do you feel about all that, Nate?
17:20
I'm vibing, Julie. I'm ready to roll. Listen to Energy Line with Nate and JSB on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
17:29
[gentle music] My name is Brendan Patrick Hughes, host of Divine Intervention. This is a story about radical nuns in combat boots and wild-haired priests trading blows with J.
17:40
Edgar Hoover in a hell-bent effort to sabotage a war. J. Edgar Hoover was furious that somebody violated the FBI, and he wanted to bring the Catholic left to its knees.
17:53
The FBI went around to all their neighbors and said to them, "Do you think these people are good Americans?" It's got heists, tragedy, a trial of the century, and the goddamndest love story you've ever heard.
18:06
I picked up the phone and my thought was, "This is the most important phone call I'll ever make in my life." I couldn't believe it. I mean, Brendan, it was divine intervention.
18:18
Listen to Divine Intervention on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
18:35
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Wanna bet smarter? Start with smarter insights right now.
18:41
You can check out Sweet 16 game previews, Greg Peterson's best bets in college hoops, and Adam Burke's MLB team previews.
18:47
Later today, you can check out Zack Cohen's best bets in the NBA, Jonathan Davis' best bets in the NHL, and Wes Reynolds' Houston Open preview.
18:55
To get access to all the articles and betting guides on vsin.com right now, you can sign up for as little as 9.99. Just head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today.
19:03
We get tweets at Beating the Book, always appreciate the feedback. This is from, uh, Jesse Welch. "Please tell me we're talking some NBA awards today because I'm sitting with Green and SGA and I'm so confused."
19:14
Guess he's talking about d- uh, Defensive Player of the Year there. Draymond getting, uh, gotten steamed big time in the past week or two. Do you believe that? Do you buy into that? That that's justified?
19:25
What is SGA right now, Defensive Player of the Year? Mm. He's still ridiculous number? Pulling up. Look, this market's be- look, this market's been out of whack since Wemby went out. A- and there is...
19:36
All I'm gonna say is it's a very unclear Defensive Player, Player of the Year field right now of players. Right now, Draymond Green minus 130, Mobley plus 110, Dyson Daniels 14 to 1, Jackson Jr.
19:48
20 to 1, Lou Dort 50 to 1, Vucevic 150 to 1, and SGA 150 to 1. So SGA went down to 151, or, or up, however you wanna describe that.
19:59
And s- and but how does Draymond, like, what did Draymond do to justify this all of a sudden?
20:04
Um, I mean, look, it, it is, it's a combination of, it's a combination of where the Warriors team defense is at when he's on the court b- and, uh, you know, and some of the individual stats.
20:14
But the problem is now that w- the thing that w- with Wemby out now, and you don't have the same kind of Rudy Gobert cases you've had in the past couple years where he's kind of anchoring that w- number one defense with all the blocks.
20:27
Now you got a bunch of dudes who kind of are not pure rim protectors, so they don't get the cl- the clean block stats as much, and everybody's having to try to read into this market a little bit more.
20:39
I'm just saying, this, this just feels to me, and I'm a Warriors guy, but this just feels to me like it's the March of the Penguins thing where it's like, and then one day, one penguin takes a step to the left, right?
20:47
And then every penguin follows him across and they migrate. I'm- Like, I just think there's, somebody made a bet on Draymond and moved a little and everybody's like, "Oh my God, Draymond." It's been a lot of that.
20:55
E- ever since Wemby's b- been out, it's been that. Dyson Daniels got steamed huge, you know, what was that, three, four weeks ago? Now he's back to 14 to 1. Draymond Green the past week and a half gotten steamed huge.
21:05
Dan Groeschel, "I was able to catch Paolini at plus money yesterday as a hedge. Would rather have one Osaka, but I still came out ahead." Good for you, Dan Groeschel.
21:12
Stringfellow Hawk, "Gil's tennis picks owe us nothing. We ride or die, #ANGMossad." [laughs] Stringfellow's my dude. Corbin, "So yesterday I ripped HBO for canceling the Lakers winning time.
21:22
Slightly going back on what I said yesterday, I have a documentary suggestion, not sure if it's been brought up on the show yet, but the Celtic City on HBO, only two episodes in, but it's fantastic so far."
21:32
Is that the Bill Simmons one? Yeah. Yeah, the chances- Yeah, I haven't seen it yet, but-... the chances of me watching a Bill Simmons Celtics doc is slim to none.
21:39
Ever since I sent him that email as a kid, and he's like, "What's the biggest comeback in, uh, in, uh, NBA history?"
21:44
And I gave him a Bullets comeback where they scored the last 18 points in a playoff game against the Malone, Dr.
21:50
J, Barkley Sixers in a playoff game, and they scored the last 18 and won the game, and he's like, "Yeah, some teams aren't as important." That's what he sent me back. That was the end of me and Bill Simmons right there.
21:59
Uh, and then Trip Tepper, "Gil, can you coax Todd Wishnam and Will Hill to perhaps do a Sweet 16 pod this week on your Beating the Book feed?"
22:05
Well, I don't know if I can coax them to do that, but I can coax Will Hill on to talk about it now. How about that? Will Hill joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
22:12
You can follow him on Twitter at NotTheWillHill. He's the c- host of the Shoulda Bet More podcast, in addition to doing the Megapod and Chris Fallica's Bear Bets pod over at Fox Sports. How you doing, Will?
22:23
Gilly, Kelly, what's going on, guys? I'm good. Uh, y- you can always coax me. I'm always down for some coaxing. Okay. All right. I know you l- you like to coaxing- Mm... on some stuff.
22:31
All right, Sweet 16, the lines come out, which is the one or two that y- that popped up and you're like, "Oh, that's not good. I'm betting that"?
22:38
You know, it's, uh, uh, I, I tweeted about it, I think I texted you guys too, and it's kind of jokingly exaggerating like, oh, Bama BYU, that's gonna be 180. And I was exaggerating, but you know what?
22:46
That, it, it, it's k- it's getting there. We're up to like 175 and a half in some spots. Mm-hmm. I still like the over.
22:51
If you just look at when Bama has totals of these one, uh, 170 or higher, so, you know, we go into the game thinking it, it's a team that's gonna run and gun with them. Let me just read you some of the scores.
23:02
Uh, they played Florida three times. The final score, total points, 193, 202, 186. Uh, Kentucky 179, Missouri 208. Two times they played Auburn, 179 and 184, and then Texas 183.
23:15
So it's like you can't make these totals high enough, uh, w- when you get these teams that want to shoot the three with them. BYU, I think 18th in the country in three-point attempts per game. Bama's eighth.
23:25
They both shoot about 29 per game. So the pace is gonna be there, the attempts are gonna be there. Obviously you have to worry, all right, big game, uh, do they get tense? Do they get tight?
23:33
Do they, you know, miss shots or is it slow down? I, I don't think it's gonna slow down at all. I think the winner's probably in the 90s here. Uh, so I like the over in this one.
23:41
Yeah, Bama themselves, what, they averaged 91 points a game this year? 91 an average. Average points for a college basketball team. Um- Not enough for those of us that had a live over [laughs] in St.
23:50
Mary's, Bama, which is just- No... I, I didn't listen to it all yesterday yet. I'm not sure how much you just, some of these live ones that- Oh... oh my goodness.
23:58
The, the, you know, Florida the other n- [laughs] the other night where they needed one point with three minutes to go.
24:02
Some of these, it's like you can't even make it up, some of the, uh, the bad breaks we've been getting with these live ones.
24:06
I do, uh, half joking, I do worry about Todd Wischnev's sanity, mental hea- me- mental wellbeing because he's made some great bets that are just like, man, how did that one lose? And they just, they keep coming.
24:17
Even yesterday in the CBI, CIT, what- whatever that one was, we need like four points in three minutes and missing free throws all over the place. Man, they, uh, they come in bunches.
24:24
It's almost, I think you've made this point before. You was just like, it's like somebody's playing a cruel joke on you. That- that's certainly how it seemed lately.
24:30
When it is relentless, it is relentless, and at some point you're like, "This is a joke, right? This can't keep happening."
24:35
The, the, the in-game stuff, which is what we spend most of our time doing with college basketball, yes.
24:40
Uh, he was on, talking about Todd, he was on a ridiculous streak, um, prior to the conference tournaments, the, the second week of conference tournaments, so in other words, the big conferences, and then, yes, all of those started to happen.
24:50
It was just a, uh, an avalanche. Uh, besides the total in the Bama-BYU game, any, any sides? Uh, I like Arkansas plus five and a half. Now wouldn't it be ironic if, uh,
25:02
after all these years of Calipari underachieving with hi- you know, high lottery picks, big, big-time talent- [laughs]... if he's like the Cinderella of the tournament?
25:09
He's actually, if you look, JVT brought this up on the show the other day, he's been great as an underdog in the tournament.
25:14
Uh, and you could take the, their 10 seed in the regular season performance and kind of throw it out because coming into the year, they were the 16th team in the country.
25:21
They're, they, they got a pro back in Flan, who's gonna be a first-round pick, and they might be getting Theo back.
25:26
There's, uh, I can't tell if it's gamesmanship and, uh, they were saying that he was close to playing against St. John's. He should be good to go this week. We'll see, but he's another NBA guy.
25:34
They've just got athletic, they got big bodies, they've got athletes, they've got shot makers. Uh, to me, five and a half is a lot.
25:41
To me, it's a, it's just, it's a house money game with Calipari, who was, uh, 0-5, 0-6 in conference play, and now you look up and you're like, man, they're not, they're not even gonna make the NIT.
25:49
Now they get, uh, onto the bubble, through the bubble, uh, win a couple games and, and to me anything from here is gravy. I wouldn't be shocked if they won this game.
25:57
Who knows, you know, McMillan's status for Texas Tech. To me, this will be a close game, and I'll take the five and a half with, uh, with, with Arkansas.
26:03
Are you buying into what I and so many others probably said, uh, this weekend and yesterday, that, uh, we may not, we may not, uh, have the NCAA tournament or what we've become accustomed to for all of our lives moving forward, maybe it's already started because of the transfer portal?
26:18
And I, and I go back to the mega pod, and I, I don't say this to, in any way, you know, you and Todd are much more granular on college basketball than I'll ever be, and you guys had the great calls two years ago.
26:28
You had FAU in the Final Four. He had, um, San Diego State against UConn in the finals. He had Michigan State going far that year. It was just epic. And then this year, you know, you guys sprinkled it into, right?
26:38
You had UCSD going to the Final Four. Um, I think you had, uh, Illinois in the Elite Eight. Todd had some, some brazen calls as well.
26:47
This is the first year, and by the way, I went one, two, one, three, one, two, one, two.
26:51
This is the first year where I have my fi- my Elite Eight intact going into the Sweet 16, and I'm not the guy to, to get that right.
26:58
So it's just, it's just a reflection of how different this seems to be, and, um, I'm just curious if you think this is a portent of things to come. I do. In, in the original bracket I did, it was like a lot of chalk.
27:11
It was all ones and twos. I was like, "You know what? I can't do this. This never happens. This isn't the tournament. This isn't any fun." There is a fun element to it, like, uh, and, and not only just the fun element.
27:19
I mean, just look at past tournaments. It's usually a blend of, all right, this is what you'd expect, and then you get one or two teams out of nowhere, and that's why we love it. Uh, I do.
27:26
I, I do think that the, the gap is wide, and you talk about this in baseball, the gap between the haves and the have-nots.
27:31
It's, when you can pick off these best players from the mid-majors, these mid-majors basically now have to hit a two-leg parlay- Yeah...
27:36
of finding the, finding the undervalued talent, which is one, and that's the easier part.
27:40
The, the harder part is keeping them because if they're any good, they're, they're gonna get bought off by one of these bigger schools. I mean, look at Clayton Junior was at Iona, now he's at Florida.
27:48
Wolfe was at Yale, now he's at Michigan. Uh, you go down the line. Broome was at Morehead. You can't, you just, you can't keep these guys, and it makes it really hard.
27:56
It used to be the last 10, 15 years, once you started to have the one-and-dones, these mid-majors were on somewhat equal footing because they had the continuity, they had the experience.
28:04
They had 21, 22-year-olds that would stay, while the Power Five conferences, they had the lottery picks, the NBA guys, but they were one-and-done. They were 18, so it was a fair fight.
28:13
It, it, it's, it's looking like if this continues, it's gonna be hard, you know, for that fair fight to continue.
28:18
It's almost like in football, if the Chiefs, the Ravens, the Bills, the Eagles were able to pick off players from, like, the Jets and the Giants, and Malik Nabers could go in the transfer portal and go to the Chiefs, like wow, the Giants are worse and the Chiefs are better, and that's, that's kind of what we're seeing in college hoops.
28:31
Yeah. There, by the way, here's, if, flash that up, guys, if you could. There's my Elite Eight from the mega pod. That's Tennessee at the bottom that I had advancing, and then I have, uh, Duke over Florida in the finals.
28:39
The, the f- I'm sure there's a mil- I'm sure there's millions like me who still have their Elite Eight intact because of the way this, the cookie crumbles now. Um, all right, before you go, Will, you're a Yankees fan.
28:49
Season's about to start. Give me their final record. Uh, 90 and 72. Ooh, you give them 90 still. Okay. Is that a playoff team? They win the division with that? Y- uh, not, a wild card. Wild card.
29:02
That's more bullish than I thought you'd be. I thought you were gonna go like- Yeah... 85 and 77. They still have Judge, if he's healthy, good bullpen, decent starting pitch... Uh, I, I could see it being worse.
29:11
Trust me, I could see it being worse. He's back. Thank you, Will. Appreciate it, man. See you guys. Will Hill, everybody. Had not the Will Hill, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Uh, we'll come back, Paul Spore.
29:20
I don't know if it's one segment, two segments. Kelly's doing the Kevin Willard thing. Who wants the ball? We'll find out next on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
29:28
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30:12
Start today. Get access to the best betting insights at sharpplays.com. We get tweets at Beating The Book. Skill Alexander, how you doing? Jack in a Prius 2.0 Okay.
30:23
When does the hedging start for these and how the hell should I do it? Arkansas to win the title at 1000 to 1 and Michigan to win the title at 190 to 1.
30:32
Well, Jack in a Prius 2.0, uh, you don't really have a natural hedge at the current moment. Uh, what you could hope for perhaps is Arkansas or Michigan to take leads in their respective games, right?
30:45
And then get some plus money price on the other side. I don't know how much you can get down. I don't know how much you put down on these futures, but that's, that would be the first sort of opportunity anyway.
30:55
But right at this moment, eh, there's really not much to do. I don't know if I... I wouldn't, I wouldn't even be considering anything till, till like the Final Four. Yeah.
31:04
There's just no, there's no real clean way to do this. There isn't. Um, A Brown down in jungle land. My childhood equivalent to Gil cutting ties with Bill Simmons.
31:12
Well, I didn't have any ties with him, but yeah, the story I was telling about, uh, when he was the Boston sports guy, and I loved Bill Simmons as the Boston sports guy.
31:19
But it's funny when something like that happens to you when you're younger, it's like, I'm sorry, your 18 point comeback to score the last 18 in a playoff game against Moses Malone, Dr.
31:27
J and Charles Barkley doesn't count because it's not the s- basically saying it's because it's not the Celtics or Lakers. You know, I was like, okay, that's it.
31:35
He goes, his childhood equivalent to cutting ties with Bill Simmons was Mitch Williams when he skipped over nine-year-old me waiting for an autograph during batting practice.
31:43
Guy was a Philly legend, but I never forgave him for it. Well, that and giving up a walk-off moonshot to Joe Blankin Carter. Yeah, that too, of course.
31:52
You ever have somebody like that where you're like, I can't- I was just trying to think, like- I can't do that anymore. I kind of only remember like the, the, the nice ones. My brother had one. My older brother had one.
32:01
Uh, Sonny Jurgensen's mother-in-law. This is, this is when my brother was a kid, so this is ancient. Yeah, we're just talking when we were kids, right? Yeah. Can't be like members of the media.
32:10
Oh, that's a different story. Are you kidding me? Yeah, I could go on for days. Yeah. No, kids. Stuff when you're like young and it makes an impression on you.
32:14
I wasn't like super young with Bill Simmons, but I was young enough.
32:17
Um, the, uh, the, uh, Sonny Jurgensen's mother-in-law lived around the corner from us, and one morning it got out that Sonny Jurgensen was at his mother-in-law's.
32:27
So my brother and his band of friends went over there to get autographs from Sonny, and Sonny couldn't be bothered to come to the door. So they took their paper, and then they came back with the Sonny.
32:37
The mother-in-law came back with Sonny Jurgensen's autograph. So they're so, they were so upset that they didn't meet him that for the rest of his life, my brother called him Sonny Jerkensen.
32:46
That was his come, that was his comeback on him that he made him happy the rest of his life.
32:49
I feel, I feel like I'm blanking on one or two, but as we're about to lead into Paul Sporer, I've got, I've got a, at least a funny baseball one for you. Oh, all right.
32:56
So I'm at a Mar- I'm at a Marlins game when I'm like, probably like 14, 15 years old, something like that, right? Probably like 15. It's a Marlins game.
33:05
I went because the Giants are in town, and the greatest, uh, player to ever hit a baseball was, uh, in the game, right? So that's who I wanted to go see was Barry Bonds. And I'm at the game. It's a Marlins game.
33:19
The Marlins being the Marlins are so bad nobody's there, right? And they try to do a dizzy bat contest during like the seventh inning stretch with like kids from the stands.
33:30
There's not enough kids at the game, Gil, that I get selected when I'm like 15. And I'm like, all right, fine, cool. Like Barry Bonds is out there. Like this is fine.
33:37
And I got a little fist bump from Barry, uh, Barry Bonds. Barry Lamar Bonds. Yeah, yeah. There you go. Because he was running out after we finished the dizzy bat. And you loved him forever.
33:43
And I crushed those kids in the dizzy bat contest. Paul Sporer joins us from FanGraphs now, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. He's actually on a meeting right now, but he's taking time out to talk to us.
33:52
You have a similar thing, Paul, for anybody that snubbed you? I'm try- no, n- not anybody that snubbed me. I have, I have some positive experiences. Oh, okay. I met Chris Berman at Tiger Stadium, and he let my
34:06
dweeby 12-year-old ass talk his ear off all night, man. [laughs] That'd be great. I'd love to have seen that. But he was the nicest. It was unbelievable.
34:13
So, um, you know, even as, uh, maybe he lost his fastball a little bit, I always held an affinity for Ber- That's very- In the Berman... that's super nice of you. And he, that, that makes sense.
34:23
Even when he lost his fastball, you still have that soft spot for him. All right, Paul, you have come on this show multiple times, uh, heading up to the baseball season.
34:31
I know we've had our two games in Tokyo, but generally, opening day is in a couple days. Mm-hmm. You've given lots of plays, teams with divisions, other team futures. You've given individual awards.
34:42
If I ask you right now, which I'm about to, so it's not an if, but I ask you, which are the ones that you feel the most solid about?
34:49
Uh, if someone is just tuning into you now, give me three that you're like, "I still love these more than any of them." Ooh, that is, that is good. I like that. I think, okay, kind of going back to some of my team ones,
35:02
still pretty hot on the Athletics. They have no city. We cannot call them [laughs]- We cannot. Athletics. Athletics. That's it. If you do, we'll, we'll shank you.
35:12
But yes, I, uh, I, I'm still, I'm still pretty keen on that ball club. I like a lot of the things they've got. They're not like an amazing team. I want to say that it was, uh, over under 77 and a half.
35:23
Is that, is that still the right number? Oh, of course it might have changed from where we were originally, but that's a team that I still like. And there were a couple of the lower tier teams
35:34
that, that stood out to me, and the other one i- in the Amer- in the National League that is kind of a, of the same variety would be the Nationals.
35:42
And these are two teams that are kind of like upstarty that I think, uh, are really putting some things together. And I think both of them kind of start on offense.
35:51
You know, Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler kind of get all the juice in Oakland, and they really are the, kind of the guys who lead it, but they've got some competent pitching as well.
36:00
But then when you look at the Nats, I think their lineup runs deep. The whole lineup, I think i, is compelling. And we could see that this team really take a step forward.
36:11
You know, we're doing bold predictions over at FanGraphs and, um, mine when it comes out is that, uh, they're gonna be a top 10 team in WRC plus the Nats. I love the Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell signings.
36:22
Josh Bell coming back out there where he put up a 127 OPS plus, uh, out in Washington before. It's a great place to hit.
36:28
Uh, they've got the young guys at the top, Abrams, Cruz, Wood Add with Bell and Lowe, who both are gonna play, DH first base, Luis Garcia, uh, Keibert Ruiz.
36:38
You know, he lost a bunch of weight, had a really rough season last year. I'm kind of eager to see him bounce back, 232 BABIP, I don't really buy that.
36:44
And even Jacob Young and Paul DeJong as, as kind of the two lower end guys, you know, d- Jacob Young just played great center field. I don't really necessarily need you to hit.
36:53
Paul DeJong, the one thing he does kind of smash bombs, so he's gonna be playing some third. I'm a Jose Taina guy. But they're 72 and a half, and I think that they've got the juice to beat that. It's a tough division,
37:03
and their bullpen, uh, doesn't excite me, but I do like a lot of their rotation. Gore showed a lot of things last year.
37:09
Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker really showed the ability to take turns throughout the rotation and put up quality starts. Michael Soroka, two up, two down in spring. He had two great starts, two horrendous ones.
37:19
We don't really know where he's at. As long as the two horrendous starts aren't indicative of another injury, because that's been the issue with Soroka his entire career,
37:29
I think that the, the Nats are kind of a compelling team to kind of win upper 70s, maybe even mess around and push 500. So those two low-end teams were two that I really like.
37:39
And then, uh, my Fernando Tatis home runs, um, and then kind of, you could put a little extra on, on, uh, MVP with him, although he's a MVP favorite. But he's more of a home run, middle of the board or even dog.
37:51
I just think there's an MVP season i- in, uh, Tatis' bat still. So I'm still very, very interested in him.
37:58
Um, I don't think he's getting a lot of run for MVP, and so that's where I went with, uh, with MVP, was Fernando Tatis. He's still 21, so he's still fifth on the board. The, or that's home runs. That's home runs.
38:07
So he's still, you know, not an uber favorite, but also not a long shot dog that you can't possibly see how it gets there. So I love Tatis. I still think he's gonna be a monster.
38:18
By the way, hello, Charlotte, who has made an appearance in the back there, taking her seat on the bench, on the couch. Yeah. [laughs] That's 'cause, yeah. He said dog, too. [laughs] He did say dog. Long shot dog.
38:26
Uh, okay, I need one clarification, and then I need you to be the arbiter. I need you to be the, uh, the tiebreaker on something. The clarification, Nationals, I assume you mean they'll go over their season win total.
38:35
Yeah. I assume you mean they're not going to win their division. But- No... would you play plus 850 for them to make the playoffs? I could get, I could get down with that, yeah. Actually, I could.
38:45
'Cause it, it's, it's like kind of my long shot playoff, uh, dark horse.
38:50
I'm focused more on the wins, you know, the, I, I like to say, you know, if I'm gonna go full unit on something like that, I'm doing a quarter, half unit on the playoffs just in case things get really crazy.
38:58
'Cause the pitching is still a little wobblier than I would feel super confident in saying they can make the playoffs, but that offense, again, it runs one to nine deep, and even with some bench guys that are interesting.
39:08
Jose Taina, Ahmed Rosario can hit lefties. I- if I had a little bit more confidence in their pitching, I would probably be a little bit more gung ho on the playoffs. All right. And then I need you to settle this dispute.
39:18
Again, two Numbers Game guests. Steve Fezzik is betting the over on the Dodgers season win total. By the way, they're already 2-0, so you'd have to find an adjusted at this point that's still up there. Um,
39:30
Joe Peta wanted no part of that. He thinks it's priced to perfection. It's 103 and a half. Where is your take on this? Boy, I hate to go against Fezzik, but I'm on the Peta side. Yeah.
39:41
I, I, it is, it is really well priced.
39:43
And I know I keep making an outdated reference to them to call them the, the load management Spurs because that team doesn't exist anymore, but that's what they remind me of, is the load management Spurs of the Manu, Tony Parker, Tim Duncan era where they just, not that they don't have to try, but that they can kind of take it easy throughout the season and just massage their way through the six months so that they've got what they need going into October.
40:07
So I think 103 and a half is perfectly priced. I lean with Peta towards the under. Paulie, always great to see you. Enjoy opening day, my friend. Thank you. You guys, too. Talk to you later.
40:16
Paul Sporer, @Sporer, S-P-O-R-E-R on the old Twitter machine, coming back right here on the Numbers Game. Eczema isn't always obvious, but it's real, and so is the relief from EVLISS.
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41:24
I'm doing a new podcast from iHeartPodcast and the National Hockey League, and I'm paired up with one of my favorite players, the always quotable Nate Thompson.
41:33
I wore nine NHL sweaters, and I have story after story to share, and believe it or not, I have plenty to say, and not just about hockey. Believe me, he does.
41:42
Energy Line with Nate and JSB is the name of the podcast, and it's gonna be, well, it's gonna be quite the ride. We're officially line mates, Nate. We're the Energy Line.
41:52
We'll have plenty of folks join us: current players, some of my former teammates, Hall of Famers, and wait 'til you see some of the connections that Julie has. She has quite the Rolodex. Okay.
42:02
We'll lean into Nate's playing experience and tap into our interests away from hockey and try to do what energy lines are supposed to do: provide an emotional boost. How do you feel about all that, Nate?
42:13
I'm vibing, Julie. I'm ready to roll. Listen to Energy Line with Nate and JSB on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On November 5th, 2018, at 6:33 AM,
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43:01
God... horrific stories that to this day have been kept restricted from the public, until now. [crying] Please don't hurt me. You Feeling This Too?, a horror anthology podcast.
43:18
Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. [upbeat music] We ready to fight? I'm ready to fight. [laughs] You are ready. I, is that, is that what...
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44:01
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44:13
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44:19
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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44:56
It's Radio's Gil Alexander. How you doing? We got tweets of beating the book. Rick Ollier, "Hey guys, no basketball last night, so I got caught up on White Lotus season three," and, uh, that's his whole tweet.
45:07
[laughs] I did too. And, uh, yeah. Wow. This is destined for w- what's the opposite of destined for greatness? Yeah, whatever that is. Destined for failure. Two more episodes. It's not gonna go well.
45:22
I, I mean, I'm not- In terms, in terms of a satisfactory ending. I mean, this is gonna be unfair because I'm not gonna start it until Gil or someone convinces me to a- No...
45:29
that it's actually worth it, but w- we are now talking about, in my opinion, a severe decline- Oh... in this show's quality since, since season one. I, don't get, again, don't get me started.
45:38
White Lotus one, a masterpiece. White Lotus two, season two, just a notch below that. White Lotus season three, it's like they forgot that plot development mattered.
45:48
Yeah, I just think this, Rick brought this up last week, but I think if season two was season one, if you flipped the two- Yeah... we wouldn't have been nearly excited about this show. Well, is that how it happened?
45:57
Uh, Primetime, Cowboys_Cubs1, "Yo. Hey man, tell, uh, Country Club and Kelly Michael Bidlin, K Michael Bidlin that I want that ball. Yo, you want me to have that ball. You need me to have that ball.
46:07
And in Bill Simmons' defense, I believe he [laughs] meant- [laughs]... he meant that some cities' teams like DC don't matter as much as others." That's a shot at DC from Primetime right there.
46:16
There was a, uh, I mean, this was not the play designed, Gil, but, uh, Brook Lopez ended up with the final shot for the Bucks last night, and I was just kinda laughing.
46:25
I, every NBA ga- game last night, as soon as there was a timeout, I'm just laughing about what the conversation, "All right, guys, who, who wants the ball here?" Who wants the ball?
46:32
Brook- Big moment, last shot, who wants the ball?
46:35
[laughs] Novak, not that Novak, uh, @seskers, he has, uh, futures on, let's see here, Texas Tech 60 to 1, uh, to win it all, Arkansas 50 to 1, Florida 50 to 1, and he has Creighton.
46:48
Creighton's not gonna get home, but the others have a shot. Johnny Ringo, "Yo, Kelly Dizzy Bat Bidlin," we finally found the nickname. [laughs] JackNapieris2.0 checks back in. He said, "Is that right?"
46:57
Said, "Thanks guys, you said exactly what I was thinking. No real hedge opportunity quite yet. I just figured if there was something I was missing or not thinking of, you guys would know what it was.
47:03
Had Oregon to make the Sweet 16 hedge with Zona in game at plus three and a half." Jamie Leyva, "Kelly at the Dizzy Bat contest, pre Bonds fist bump. Have a fantastic day, gentlemen."
47:13
I, I mean, legit, Gil, I th- like, Bonds, Bonds had a smile on his face. I think he legit was getting a kick out of, like, me in this Dizzy Bat contest- [laughs]...
47:22
being like seven years older than the next da- the next youngest kid in there, or oldest kid in there. And yeah, he was nice enough, though. Barry ran, was running out to left field.
47:30
I was like, "I'm making my way over to Barry Bonds, well, they can kick me out if they want." Barry Lamar Bonds, misunderstood. Yeah. There he goes. Jack14770548, "1979 Reading Phils, Dicky Noles on rehab assignment.
47:42
Just heard on the radio Big Phils had, uh, taken lead," uh, the Big Phils, the, uh, Major League Phillies, "had taken the lead in their game. I run down to the bullpen, excited to tell Dicky the Phils are winning.
47:51
His response, 'What the blank do I care?'" [laughs] He hated Dicky Noles ever since. [laughs] That's so funny. It's all it takes. Roger Jones, "Guys, dumb guy question.
48:00
Do you guys think it's possible persons or groups are manipulating these award markets by tickling the wire to get the best prices on the top contenders, or it's just that volatile?"
48:08
Oh, this is not a dumb question at all. Nah, it's not a dumb question at all, man. Th- th- this is ver- very much what's going on. I mean, there are...
48:16
I, I, the Dyson Daniels steam in Most Improved Player, I mean, I know directly links back to a person, a group. Like, this is, this is what happens when there's a little bit- Yeah...
48:27
some of these awards are up in the air.
48:30
Guy- guys look for, groups look for, I'm not gonna say that they're unreasonable cases, but a good case that's too far out, and bet it, and then like you said, the steam picks up, people pick up, that it's getting bet, and they bet.
48:43
Some people acu- some people accuse us of doing it. Right, exactly. [laughs] You're using your bully pulpit to do, you know, to get this, you know, manifest this. It absolutely happens, though.
48:51
I mean, that is the biggest reason for N- no matter what, what you think about Draymond Green and what, i- if he should be Defensive Player of the Year or not, that is the single biggest reason of why his odds have moved- Yes...
49:01
and moved as quickly as they have in two weeks. The march of the penguins. Telling you.
49:05
Um, I wanna c- I wanna circle back to something 'cause this w- I was actually having this conversation over text with, uh, with Matt Brown over this weekend. We were talking about golf. I know that guy.
49:12
Which, Jack in the Prius, this kind of goes back to your question about betting futures, and I think it's, I think with some of the betting options we have available to us now, Gil, and it, we don't have as many here in Las Vegas, so we don't often think about the different options.
49:28
And I think you and I, a- a- and others here in Nevada sometimes laugh at some of the cash out options that we see, right, uh, on some of the bets.
49:35
And some of it's just mistimed and it's, "Hey, they're trying to get you to, they're trying to get you most of the time to get your money out early when you're in a good position with your bet," right?
49:44
I think it's interesting if you're betting some of these futures, let's say it's two shops that have the same odds, uh, for the s- for the same bet that you're trying to make, and you know it's two shops or one of the shops has a cash out option.
49:58
I think it's a smart, probably a smart strategy going forward that instead of making that bet at one of the shops is splitting up the bet and betting at both shops to give yourself that cash out option at some point down the line, because then you have a clean hedge out opportunity where you could let that one bet ride at one shop.
50:16
Hmm. And the other shop you could cash out and take a little back, back. If you're really, if that's what you're really trying to do, if you're determined to monetize this ticket somehow- If you're determined, yes...
50:26
determined to monetize the ticket somehow. Bet. That's, I, I think that- That's a whole nother discussion- It is... which, which I have my opinions on, 'cause some people are way too determined. Correct. Right?
50:34
Why'd you make the bet in the first place then? What changed, right? That all, that kind of stuff. But, uh, but I understand what you're saying. And I think it's- I don't hate it...
50:40
for me, it, it's, it's something that I do 'cause, you know, like, like you, I'm very hesitant to hedge or hedge too much in most sports.
50:48
In golf, when you're betting it every week, I have stronger feelings about locking in some profit when you have the opportunity. So Matt and I kind of got talking about it because of that.
50:57
He, he had a Jacob Bridgeman ticket last week and was being offered a cash out at MGM, and it just kind of, kind of got me thinking about this, where it's, you look, uh, the, the, the times that you're gonna get offered the same price at multiple books is gonna be few enough alone that here I don't think you're gonna have the opportunity to do this very often, but it's something I'm logging in the back of my mind going forward.
51:17
Yeah, just the cash out math is so bad so often. Todd got a really unbelievable one like last week where a, a team that he was betting on, and the details will be, will be wrong here, but you'll get the idea.
51:30
Some college basketball team he was betting on was like up 20 points. Mm-hmm.
51:34
Like, there was no possible way they could lose it, and the cash out was literally like 20 cents less than what he would have gotten if he won the bet. Oh, yeah. Yeah.
51:44
To which, right, we immediately said, "Well, just take the money. Like, don't even worry about the bet. The bet's over. Take the money minus 20 cents. You're done." And he's like, "Right?
51:52
Like, I had to stare at it like three different times- [laughs]... to make sure that that's what they were offering me." 'Cause you never see that, right? Yeah.
51:57
And wouldn't you know, that team ended up in a dog fight at the end of the game. They might have even lost. Mm-hmm. I can't even remember the detail on it.
52:03
But so every once in a while you'll get this cash out thing where you're like, "Wow, is this for real?"
52:08
I, I, I mean, I have seen it both shockingly too high it feels like and shockingly, I mean, a lot of times shockingly too low. I, I have never once seen it shockingly too high for me, but in that case it was. Okay. Yeah.
52:18
Um- I just wonder how much they follow. That thing follows directly. Like, how many times do we laugh at like the e- the win pro- ESPN win probability- Oh... 99%.
52:27
Like, we bring up 70 games a year where it was 99% with a minute left and somehow it got blown. I wonder if they're just kind of following that stuff and that's how they're setting the cash out.
52:37
Hoops by Hoots, "Mine is Larry Bird. 2004 as a 10-year-old diehard Carmelo Anthony fan, my parents took me to see him in Indy and got great seats. Bird is sitting two rows behind us. I walk up to ask for an autograph.
52:49
He looks to his bodyguard," in quotes, "next to him and says, 'Get him away.'" Yeah- That old- That'll make you hate Larry Bird. Yeah. Whatever.
52:56
Uh, you know where I thought you were going with alternative things- Mm-hmm... in betting?
52:59
I thought you were going with the, the thing that Vegas Chump brought up on Twitter, which, you know, it's not just him bringing it up, but he's the one that I remember bringing it up, because it's true.
53:06
We, we always talk about to win the title, right? But you could bet to win the final f- to get to the Final Four, and I do feel like we don't pay enough attention to those kinds of markets- Yeah... right?
53:17
Um, and right now you can still bet, uh, to make the Final Four, even though we have now, we're down to what, four teams per bracket, four teams per region.
53:25
And so, uh, if we could flash those up, guys, 'cause I think, I think here you may have some opportunity.
53:31
Um, you know, let's just- Yeah, what they're doing, most books are doing now, it's odds to win whichever region, right? Well, that's- You kind of had Final Four prices beforehand.
53:38
Well, that's, that's to make the Final Four, still. Right. To win region, right. Same w- however it's phrased, right? So to win the South region, you have Auburn, Michigan State, Ole Miss, and Michigan.
53:47
If, if you're forced to make a bet here, you know, is Ole Miss the interesting play at plus 650? Because even though I'm on Michigan against Auburn, I don't think they're beating Auburn.
53:58
But Ole Miss is only a two and a half point favorite against Michigan State, and I think they're actually live. So plus 650, I don't know.
54:06
I, you know, you'd have to obviously project what their, what their number would be- Right. Yeah...
54:09
against Auburn, but plus 650, if you, if you gave me one here, it feels like Ole Miss might be the play, even though I have Auburn getting there. Um, but these are interesting, right? 'Cause we go region by region.
54:20
Let's go to another one here real quick. It, see, like I'd probably go Michigan State, but I think because, like you're talking about, that game being so tightly lined, e- either one of those could work.
54:28
Uh, Houston, this is the Midwest now, Houston, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Purdue. Houston plays Purdue. They're seven and a half point favorites. Kentucky is a four and a half point dog against Tennessee.
54:38
I mean, I have chalk here, so I'm, there, there's nothing I love here. So far Ole Miss. To, to the west, Florida, Texas Tech, Maryland, and Arkansas. Some people think Maryland's live against Florida.
54:49
Maybe you want that plus 470. Only have to win two games, right? Um, so if, if, if you have conviction on Maryland, that might be an alternative way to play them. Let's put it that way.
54:59
I'm not, but just, uh, these options are available. Uh, those numbers courtesy of FanDuel, by the way, per region. We will come back. Um, how about some Drew Dincic? Let's talk some NBA and tennis next.
55:13
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56:16
Have you guys seen this new commercial from Stand Up To All Hate? It's basically Snoop Dogg and Tom Brady going back and forth with reasons that they hate each other.
56:23
But then when you really listen to them, the reasons for the hate, uh, are just so stupid. I don't know, this, this commercial really got me.
56:30
It's a strong reminder that hate in our country continues to be out of control. So join us at iHeart in standing up to it. If you see hate, speak up, call it out. Your voice is a powerful tool in this fight.
56:42
You can learn more by following @whatsupwithhate. What's up, everyone? Julie Swiercinski here, along with former NHL player Nate Thompson. We're doing a new podcast together. Here we go. The name?
56:53
Energy Line with Nate and JSB. Each week we'll get together and talk about hockey, life. All topics are fair game, right? Exactly, and you'll never know who will drop by to join us. Julie is pretty well-connected.
57:06
She has text threads going that you wouldn't believe. Listen to Energy Line with Nate and JSB on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
57:16
[upbeat music] This is Mel Reid, LPGA Tour winner and six-time Ladies European Tour winner. And Kira K. Dixon, NBC Sports reporter and host. And we've got a new podcast, Quiet Please with Mel- And Kira.
57:28
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57:36
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57:44
Beauty, founding partner of iHeartWomen's Sports.
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