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Mar 26, 2025
A Numbers Game | March 26, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | March 26, 2025 | Hour 1
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57:42
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Transcript
0:00
Eczema isn't always obvious, but it's real, and so is the relief from EVLISS. After an initial dosing phase of 16 weeks, about four in 10 people taking EVLISS achieved itch relief and clear or almost clear skin.
0:14
And most of those people maintained skin that's still more clear at one year with monthly dosing.
0:18
EVLISS, lebrikizumab, LBKZ, a 250 milligram per two milliliter injection, is a prescription medicine used to treat adults and children 12 years of age and older who weigh at least 88 pounds or 40 kilograms with moderate to severe eczema, also called atopic dermatitis, that is not well controlled with prescription therapies used on the skin, or topicals, or who cannot use topical therapies.
0:36
EVLISS can be used with or without topical corticosteroids. Don't use if you're allergic to EVLISS. Allergic reactions can occur that can be severe. Eye problems can occur.
0:43
Tell your doctor if you have new or worsening eye problems. You should not receive a live vaccine when treated with EVLISS. Before starting EVLISS, tell your doctor if you have a parasitic infection.
0:51
Searching for real relief? Ask your doctor about EVLISS and visit evliss.lilly.com or call 1-800-LILY-RX or 1-800-545-5979. What's up, everyone? Julie Swiercinski here, along with former NHL player Nate Thompson.
1:05
We're doing a new podcast together. Here we go. The name, Energy Line with Nate and JSB. Each week we'll get together and talk about hockey, life. All topics are fair game, right? Exactly.
1:17
And you'll never know who will drop by to join us. Julie is pretty well-connected. She has text threads going that you wouldn't believe.
1:24
Listen to Energy Line with Nate and JSB on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is Mel Reid, LPGA Tour winner and six-time Ladies European Tour winner. And Kira K.
1:37
Dixon, NBC Sports reporter and host. And we've got a new podcast, Quiet Please with Mel- And Kira.
1:44
We are bringing you spicy takes on sports and pop culture, some interviews with incredible people who have figured out how to make golf their superpower.
1:51
An iHeartWomen's Sports production in partnership with Deep Blue Sports and Entertainment. You can find us on iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by e.l.f.
1:59
Beauty, founding partner of iHeartWomen's Sports. I'm Tomer Cohen, LinkedIn's Chief Product Officer. If you're just as curious as I am about the way things are built, then tune into my podcast, Building One.
2:12
I speak with some of the best product builders out there. I've always been inspired by frustration. It came back to my own personal pinpoint.
2:19
So we had to go out to farmers and convince them- Following that curiosity is a superpower. You have to be obsessed with the human condition.
2:27
Listen to Building One on the iHeartRadio app, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts. [upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. So I'm one of those idiots who believe in analytics.
2:37
This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you. This is Numbers Game at VSiN, V Sports Betting Network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158.
2:50
Gil Alexander, my little buddy Kelly Bidlin, everybody. Producer number nine. Yo, yo. So, so much more than a producer. Oh, want no wave today? Just want yo, yo? Okay. There you go.
2:58
Well, I got, I got tennis bets, Statter. Oh, do you guys have a bet beforehand? Yeah, we, we might. Hey, we work at a betting network. There's a lot of side bets that go on behind the scenes around here. Oh.
3:07
I was looking for action today on whether or not, on a yes-no price, if Gil Alexander was gonna send me tennis bets, because it was getting late. Yeah.
3:14
I hadn't gotten anything from you, but we're late enough in the tournament that it's possible for you to not have any bets. That's correct. I do have one. By the way, let me just say this again.
3:22
This is, uh, this ain't your mom and dad's hard court season. Um, not the, not the hard court season we've been accustomed to. Three p- three dogs yesterday, all three with great CLV. All three didn't get home.
3:33
[laughs] This is just how it's been. It's been the year of, again, I'm a dog bettor- Right... and a short favorite bettor.
3:40
And unless it's a massive, like, beat Carlitos kind of thing, uh, or beat Coco kind of thing, which I don't usually bet on, the numbers won't take me there, um, those are the only ones that are getting home.
3:51
And the, and the standard dogs that I play that usually get home aren't. And so, um, it's been a favorites kind of season. I do have one today. Francisco Cerundolo.
4:01
Francisco Cerundolo plus 102, um, today at, uh, in Miami. This is, uh, the... What is this, the first half or the second half, I should say, of the round of 16? I've already lost track.
4:13
Where there are no- Yeah, 'cause there's ra- it's been raining, right? The rain- Wait, no, no, no, the rain is fine. But it's the- Oh... second half of the semis. This is the quarters.
4:19
This is the quarters, pardon me, of the, uh, of the men's side. Do I have that right? Yes, I think I do. Anyway, it's, it's, uh, Cerundo- Cerundolo today plus 102 over Grigor Dimitrov. Um, and that is at vsin.com/picks.
4:32
Again, for all subscribers, every host, every guest, um, every sport for subscribers. Vsin.com/picks, gave that out last night. Um, and we'll see if that's in range here this morning.
4:42
I do have the, uh, the Swiatek quarter, though, right? That's, uh, she's minus 1,000 to win her, uh, quarterfinal match today against Alexandra Yala, who I hated myself for not betting against Ostapenko.
4:54
Didn't hate myself against her other one, against, uh, Maddie Keys. But, um, [laughs]
5:00
Iga Swiatek, who w- I don't know why we didn't put it on the graphic, but I mentioned at the time, you know, it's mathematically minus 115 to win her quarter is not, like, mathematically sound. I got it.
5:10
But you bet it auto. Um, you bet it auto, by the way, Cerundolo is, uh, plus 102 exactly now, so you can get the same price. Uh, Iga, if you all... You know, if you, if you are like, "Why does he always bet on Iga?"
5:23
Okay, if you don't believe in terms of her winning a tournament, but quarters. She has played in 69... She has played in 70 tournaments since sh- uh, from the beginning.
5:34
When she won the French Open in 2020, that was the first... Let, let's start there. That's the first of 70 tournaments that she's, she's played since. Okay. She has won 22 titles. Mm-hmm.
5:43
She's gotten to the finals three other times. So that's 25 out of 70 she w- she got to the finals. 22 of them she won. She got to additional 15 semifinals. So- So she's 22 in three in finals? Correct. Wow. So she's...
5:57
And, but 15 other semifinals. So out of the 70 tournaments since that French Open title in 2020, she has won her quarter 40 of those times. That's 57%. That's pretty good. She's won her quarter
6:10
She has gotten to the quarterfinals seven additional times. Shows she's, she's played for the quarter 67% of the time. Jeez. I don't know if you know, that's two out of three tournaments.
6:21
And that's even with this, quote unquote, you know, period of time where she's not playing as well according to some, right?
6:29
So 67% of the time she's, she's played for the quarter, including today where she's minus 1,000. We have her at minus 150. Just a last thing on this. Since 2022, she has not won her quarter a grand total of five times.
6:43
You can count them on one hand. Wow. It's all... So if, if you wonder why I just bet it auto minus 115 and just walk away, even though it's not mathematically sound necessarily, it's not even worth doing the math. Yeah.
6:55
Well, the, uh, uh, this is like the Paul Carra-Kelly system play today of the, uh, tennis player I've heard of [laughs] for s- Who is she playing today? Uh, Alexandra Eala, a Filipina. No idea. Yeah.
7:09
Uh, who, who's been awesome, who's best part of her career. Anyway, didn't plan on starting with tennis, but since you had a side bet, there you go. Uh, Russell Wilson signed by the Giants. Ugh.
7:18
Can we talk about this for a second? Because I find this fascinating now. We are- So sad... by the way, by the way, we're gonna get to baseball.
7:25
Mark Borchard, uh, base winner, has finally shown up with his season-long baseballs today. We've had, uh, Sporer on. We even had Joe Peta on. Mark Borchard, base winner, on today on the show.
7:34
We'll talk golf with Kelly Houston, open preview. Zach Cohen on the Sweet 16. Matty Cox will join us here momentarily to talk Sweet 16 with us. Uh, Jason Weingarten from Under a Cloud of Smoke later.
7:43
But I wanna start with the Russ- with the Russell Wilson thing because the very [laughs] it says, I saw, so the Giants signed Russell Wilson, in case you missed it, in case you were trapped under a heavy object.
7:52
This on the heels of them signing Jameis Winston literally moments before that. Okay, not moments, but you get the idea. Um, so now their quarterback room, we love a room, Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, Tommy DeVito.
8:06
Oh, by the way, they also have the third pick in the draft. So pushing this forward to the draft where we all like bets, and let me just say again with the NFL draft, this is no longer the ATM machine it used to be.
8:16
We can, we can say that now, right? This is no longer something we should assume we're gonna win money on. It used to be a cash cow. It may not necessarily be.
8:25
But the Giants, and I wanna give you three options here, Kelly, and you tell me what's at play here. Option number one, the Giants with the third pick in the draft, they sign Winston and Wilson now.
8:35
They figure they can't trade for Cam Ward. The cost is too prohibitive.
8:41
They're not gonna be able to pull off a trade to number one for Cam Ward, and they feel like the Browns are going to take Shedeur Sanders, so therefore they decided we're gonna sign two veteran quarterbacks, and then with the third pick we'll either go with Travis Hunter or, I don't know, Jackson Dart- Yeah...
8:55
if they thought something else. So there's two offshoots to, to, to scenario number one. Abdul Carter, yeah. Or Abdul Carter, right. Uh, so option one again, they can't trade for one.
9:05
They're convinced the Browns are, are taking Shedeur at number two. Option number two, they figure they can't trade for Ward. The price is too high at number one.
9:13
That the, um, that the Browns are not, they're not convinced the Browns are gonna take Shedeur, but they don't like Shedeur themselves or any other quarterback, so they decided to do this. And then what was option three?
9:26
I already forgot what option three was. Well, option three would be- Oh, option three is, right, option three is they can't trade for Ward at one. Right.
9:34
Um, they don't really know what's gonna happen at two, but it's immaterial to them because they've decided they wanna go into the season with these two veteran quarterbacks and not worry about anything this year.
9:44
Uh, I guess three most likely to me. I, I, I think their thought process is they, I agree with you. I think you, you set it up perfectly with the Cam Ward and tra- trading up for him.
9:54
I think they've accepted that they have no chance of, of getting into that, uh, into that area anymore.
10:01
So now I think they're playing, I, I guess that they're playing the game of we're just gonna take best, best guy available at three, and no matter what the Browns do.
10:10
I'm, I am not ruling out, Gil, that they could still bring in a q- a rookie quarterback though at all. Okay.
10:14
So th- this, this then generates other questions which is, okay, if you've decided to, first of all, did you tell Jameis you were gonna also sign Russell Wilson? Of course not, 'cause they never treat my guy right, man.
10:25
[laughs] I'm so upset about that. Okay. That's the first thing. Did you tell Jameis you were gonna do this? Did you tell Malik Nabers he lost his Offensive Player of the Year award?
10:31
The second thing, [laughs] second thing is if you are gonna draft a quarterback, if, if it's Shedeur or Jackson Dart or whoever after, let's say it's Shedeur, you have the opportunity to do so and you do draft him and have the mentorship of the Winston-Wilson administration, what k- what kind of mentorship is that when you have one guy saying it's like, "Oh, you gotta be unlimited," like that's Wilson's biggest contribution, where Winston will be like, "You gotta eat W's."
10:56
Like I just don't know how that's gonna work out.
10:59
So it, 'cause the biggest thing of that scenario, the biggest thing of the scenario where you're just, you, you've just decided you're, you don't, you can't trade for Ward.
11:08
You are either convinced the Browns are taking Shedeur or you don't like Shedeur. That then screams the Shane thing, right? Joe Shane, their, their general manager. Yes.
11:16
That just screams back to what we saw with, you know, the, the, what resulted from them signing Daniel Jones, which then begat them letting Saquon go essentially, right, much to the owner's chagrin, much to his ultimate dismay, where he s- said he out loud he was gonna lose sleep, to now you are just, how do we win some football games?
11:39
This is the general manager, you know, his thought bubble. Mm-hmm. How do we win football games where I can keep my job in the short term? Which is horrible for the organization if that is your strategy. You're nodding.
11:51
You think that, yeah. It, it, well, it's, it's one of two. Yeah, yeah. And we've been talking about this for a while now.
11:55
I don't understand how, if you're the Giants, how you can enter the, enter the off season, uh, with these two guys in place, coach and, coach and GM, when they're now making moves that make it seem obvious that that is the strategy for them, and it's, like We, we, we brought it up at the time.
12:10
You go out and draft a rookie quarterback, it almost seal, it almost guarantees you more time. The other thing that might guarantee you another year, though, is winning more games than you should, right? Right, right.
12:19
So it's- Which is- I think they're r- putting themself in the situation where I'm not gonna rule out them drafting a quarterback, 'cause that could...
12:25
That plan, let's call it plan A, could still exist, of draft a quarterback and they're not gonna fire us 'cause they'll give us time to develop him.
12:33
Or plan B, if our win total is three and a half and we go out and win seven wins- Right... maybe it buys us one more year. Right. So maybe that's what they're thinking.
12:40
The other thing is, i- if you're a Giants fan, are you really thinking like, "Well w- that sucks, 'cause now we can't tank for Arch Manning, 'cause we'll win some games now." Yeah. Right? There's that, too.
12:51
Anyway, for, for all of that is- But, but you hit on... I didn't, I didn't bring it back to what you, you said, and you said it perfectly. You are hurting the future of your franchise- Yes... regardless.
12:59
For your own personal security. For your own personal security. Which is true of many jobs and many industries, if that's the case. Which I don't know if I necessarily blame on them.
13:07
By the way, I don't know the answer to any of that. It's, it's within... Something is, is, is true in all of that, and I don't know which option it is.
13:15
Um, the one thing that I'm pretty convinced of, though, is this notion that the Browns would not take a quarterback, I have always pressed against. I, I... They absolutely have to take a quarterback at two, right?
13:27
So I don't... I think it's... I would hope that it's the Giants thinking, "Well, we can't trade for Ward. They are, the Browns are gonna take Shedeur, and therefore we're not interested in a quarterback at three."
13:40
I would hope that's what's at play. Because by the way, the Browns defense wasn't terrible in terms of pressure rate. Right. It was actually pretty good. Why would you add Abdul Carter to that?
13:49
Why, why do- Yeah, so we keep drafting the end, yeah... you need a quarterback. So you need... I mean, so I hope it's that. I hope for Giants fans [laughs] it's that.
13:56
But as far as our bets, it to me now sounds like it's one, two quarterback and then Giants are going elsewhere.
14:02
I'll tell you, Gil, with one signing of Russell Wilson, I went from sort of a Giants fan this year to not at all. I wanted Jameis. I wanted to watch Jameis. I wanted to watch him be terrible. It's your guy, FSU.
14:14
Uh, we'll come back. Maddy Cox on the Sweet 16 on the other side. It's a numbers game at Feaster, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] Eczema isn't always obvious, but it's real, and so is the relief from Epglesk.
14:32
After an initial dosing phase of 16 weeks, about 4 in 10 people taking Epglesk achieved itch relief and clear or almost clear skin, and most of those people maintained skin that's still more clear at one year with monthly dosing.
14:43
Epglesk, librocizumab, LBKZ, a 250 milligram per two milliliter injection, is a prescription medicine used to treat adults and children 12 years of age and older who weigh at least 88 pounds or 40 kilograms with moderate to severe eczema, also called atopic dermatitis, that is not well controlled with prescription therapies used on the skin, or topicals, or who cannot use topical therapies.
15:01
Epglesk can be used with or without topical corticosteroids. Don't use if you're allergic to Epglesk. Allergic reactions can occur that can be severe. Eye problems can occur.
15:08
Tell your doctor if you have new or worsening eye problems. You should not receive a live vaccine when treated with Epglesk. Before starting Epglesk, tell your doctor if you have a parasitic infection.
15:16
Searching for real relief? Ask your doctor about Epglesk and visit Epglesk.lilly.com or call 1-800-Lilly-RX or 1-800-545-5979. It's Julie Stewart-Banks.
15:26
I'm doing a new podcast from iHeartPodcast and the National Hockey League, and I'm paired up with one of my favorite players, the always quotable Nate Thompson.
15:35
I wore nine NHL sweaters, and I have story after story to share. And believe it or not, I have plenty to say, and not just about hockey. Believe me, he does.
15:44
Energy Line with Nate and JSB is the name of the podcast, and it's gonna be... Well, it's gonna be quite the ride. We're officially line mates, Nate. We're the Energy Line.
15:54
We'll have plenty of folks join us, current players, some of my former teammates, Hall of Famers. And wait till you see some of the connections that Julie has. She has quite the Rolodex. Okay.
16:04
We'll lean into Nate's playing experience and tap into our interests away from hockey and try to do what energy lines are supposed to do: provide an emotional boost. How do you feel about all that, Nate?
16:15
I'm vibing, Julie. I'm ready to roll. Listen to Energy Line with Nate and JSB on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. [tense music] On November 5th, 2018, at 6:33 AM,
16:31
a red Volkswagen Golf was found abandoned in a ditch out in Sleep Hole Valley. The driver's seat door was open. No traces of footsteps leaving the vehicle.
16:45
No belongings were found, except for a cassette tape lodged in the player. On that tape were 10 vile- No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. Ahh!... grotesque- Oh my God. Oh my
17:03
God... horrific stories that to this day have been kept restricted from the public until now. [crying] Please, don't hurt me. You Feeling This Too?, a horror anthology podcast.
17:20
Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. My name is Brendan Patrick Hughes, host of Divine Intervention.
17:29
This is a story about radical nuns in combat boots and wild-haired priests trading blows with J. Edgar Hoover in a hell-bent effort to sabotage a war. J.
17:40
Edgar Hoover was furious somebody violated the FBI, and he wanted to bring the Catholic left to its knees. The FBI went around to all their neighbors and said to them, "Do you think these people are good Americans?"
17:54
It's got heists, tragedy, a trial of the century, and the goddamndest love story you've ever heard. I picked up the phone, and my thought was, "This is the most important phone call I'll ever make in my life."
18:07
I couldn't believe it. I mean, Brendan, it was divine intervention Listen to Divine Intervention on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
18:31
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Numbers game live from Circa. If you wanna bet smarter, start with smarter insights.
18:38
Right now, you can check out Sweet 16 game previews, Greg Peterson's best bets in college basketball, and Wes Reynolds' Houston Open preview.
18:46
Later today, you can check out Zach Cohen's best bets in the NBA, Jonathan Davis' best bets in the NHL, and Josh Applebaum's college basketball sharp report.
18:53
To get access to all the articles and betting guides on vsin.com right now, you can sign up for as little as $9.99. Just head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today.
19:05
We get tweets at Beating The Book, always appreciate it. People love, or as soon as you transition to football in any sense, right, even for five minutes, people are like, "Oh, football." Mm-hmm.
19:13
Jud O'Connor, "Did we see what happened last year? The Giants have no idea what's going on ever." [laughs] It's... I can't really re- I can't really refute that point. You can't argue it. That's kind of my point earlier.
19:22
James Sott, "Thanks again, Gil and Kelly, for taking some time to talk with us last week. Back to reality here, but let's go Iga." He's on Iga as well. All right. Let's go. Um, yes, great meeting James and his crew.
19:33
Mm-hmm. Uh, it was great meeting, um, Donnie earlier this week, who gave me just a really nice gift. Uh, yesterday, John stopped by, um, who was really nice. He was here for the pizza convention. [laughs] Great voice.
19:46
We need to hire him. Yeah, he should be on radio. Yeah. Yeah. We sh- uh, we should have told that to him. Yeah. He should probably be on radio. Uh- Great voice.
19:51
Yeah, he's here for the pizza convention, which I've never been at. Chance Copper Pot twee- uh, DM'd me about it yesterday. Pizza convention. Uh, really sounds like we're missing out, Gil.
19:59
Uh, Shrek McPhee, who has no longer decided to trip us up with other kind of, uh, monikers. Thank you. [laughs] Thank you, Shrek. Ever since we met his, ever since I met his parents, he's kind of piped it down.
20:09
I met your parents, Shrek. Um- Oh, is that what happened? [laughs] Yeah, at the South Point. Um, Genty, "25 to one to be drafted by New England," he says.
20:16
"Mini Derrick Henry that Vrabel had in Tennessee helps a young quarterback, especially after the Diggs signing. All that money spent on defense, it cannot be a defensive player unless Carter falls to four."
20:25
NCI 95 Gambler, "What are your thoughts on my Pat signing Stefon Diggs? I don't like it one bit, and it's not because of the ACL.
20:32
I feel like it's like Devontae going to the Raiders, and now that Vrabel is a run first coach." Yeah, I didn't really move the needle for me either- I mean-... NCI 95, quite frankly... two, two quick thoughts. Yeah.
20:42
I think it's the, it, it's, I, I mean, I think it, on paper, it, it just looks like an awful signing to me. Like, I don't understand it. I just, I don't think it's the piece.
20:50
I think you're spending too much on a guy that's coming fr- off an injury, that we don't really know where he's at at 31 years old.
20:55
But as you bring up so well so many a times, y- you got, you've got a quarterback that you're trusting on a rookie deal. You got money to burn. Yeah. Go out and spend it if it helps develop. Go out and spend it.
21:05
It's how you win. Stringfellow Hawk, our buddy who we met also, he says, "Don't know why the Giants signed Winston, nor does it matter if he's playing. The season is gone in the crapper.
21:12
Draft the best available player at three and a quarterback in round three or later." Stringfellow, I would go with that strategy as well if I were them. Mm-hmm. Let's hope that that's what they're thinking.
21:20
G Je- uh, D Gen Southern Gent, "Gil, you mentioned Arch Manning possibly getting drafted next year.
21:24
Are we sure that he's not going to stay in college for three to four years and continue to build his brand on his own before the NFL has the chance to conform him to their own?" You're 100% right, D Gen. I'm not sure.
21:34
He, he could, he could end up be- look, a lot of these guys might be like, "This is really comfortable. There's girls here. I'm making money. I don't have the pressure of the league. Sure, I'll stick around."
21:44
I'm interested to see with some of that stuff 'cause the,
21:48
I get a- like, I'll get asked about some of the college basketball guys at the NBA, and I'm like, I, I understand that there's money, but i- the NBA, you wanna get into the NBA so you get on the clock as soon as possible with the contract stuff, so you can reach a super max with your team- Yeah...
22:02
as soon as possible, so. Well, he mi- he might be good enough where that's the proper way, right? Go to the league, right? Go to the NFL. But there's a, there's a whole bunch underneath a guy of that level- Mm-hmm.
22:12
Yeah... who might just be like, "Wow, this UCLA campus, let's just choose one. It's kinda nice here." Mm-hmm. "The weather's kinda nice, and I'm making money. Why bother?" Um, let's talk some college hoops.
22:22
Sweet 16 is, uh, upon us tomorrow night. A special numbers game investigation reveals that it begins tomorrow night with four games and then four more on Friday, of course.
22:30
We're gonna hang out with, uh, Montesano Carl Sack watching Sweet 16. Yeah, we are. Looking forward to that. Matty Cox joins us from the Weavers, three-man weave, uh, back at his, uh, his, he was in Vegas last week.
22:40
He didn't say hello, which, you know, we're okay with. Yeah. 'Cause you know they're big-timers. Uh, but he's back to his, uh- Where, where you at? Mother-in-law's? Is that where you are, you are today?
22:47
D- yep, yeah, down in the, uh, Naples community here in Florida. Nice. So- Oh... working coast to coast this week and all over the place. In Florida, he says. Yeah.
22:56
Wait, Matt, real quick, what is the casino game of choice for the m- uh, three-man Weavers? Uh, we, uh, I mean, blackjack I guess, but, uh, certainly don't consider ourselves card counters or have any sort of edge.
23:09
Uh, I, I will say with the youngsters who are part of our group this year, my brother's bachelor party, which turned out splendidly by the way, uh, craps was their game. Okay.
23:16
Basically riding random guy, hot streak, befriending that guy- [laughs]... that friendship manifest into lifelong friendships, those types of things, so. I see.
23:24
Certainly not plus EV type players with us today, but, uh, it was, it was- Nor those... this weekend, but it was a fun- Yeah... a fun experience. No, but that's what casinos gambling about.
23:31
That's why it kills me inside a little bit, Gil, when I see all these, all, like, the electronic machines now post-COVID, where it's like, no, you take away the fun of a craps table where that stuff happens.
23:40
Where you get to emote. Yeah. That's right. And you make friends. All right. Let's do this night by night. Let's start with, uh, we'll do chronologically.
23:46
Let's start with tomorrow night, four games, two in the east, two in the west. Arizona, let's start with the east. Arizona Duke and BYU Alabama. These aren't actually chronologically, uh, tomorrow night.
23:56
The first game is BYU Alabama in terms of a tip. Alabama favored by five and a half. The total now 175 and a half. Let's start with that game. Any thoughts? I think there's, so there's been money coming on Bama early.
24:10
I think we see even more money toward, uh, closer to tip here. I think this closes six. Uh, I got some minus five at Bama. I think this is my, uh- I guess my strongest, uh, bet of the, uh, of the Sweet 16 round.
24:21
I mean, BYU's really good. I think we- you can't discount how, how well they've played. I think Kevin Young's a terrific coach. They have a ton of depth, uh, all types of versatile pieces.
24:29
That- that's what makes them so unique is that they have a lot of individual, unique, uh, unorthodox match-ups, uh, with, you know, with, with Deming as sort of that point forward. They got some bullies up front.
24:39
They got some shooters. Um, and the way they play i- is just a little bit different with Kevin Young kind of running an NBA type of offense there. Uh, but Bama's gonna be ready for all them.
24:47
It's a great coach, great staff there. I think their talent plays up in this game. The key handicap here is BYU I think was somewhat fortunate to play in altitude those first two games, right? I think that was so...
24:58
It's rare to see an opening pod, uh, be at altitude, right? At Denver, they play all year at home. It's sort of one of the reasons a lot of team- people don't take this, uh, the Mountain West or the WCC team seriously.
25:09
So BYU kind of rode that wave of momentum, uh, to get past that first pod. I think they kind of come back down to earth, uh, figuratively with the drop in altitude against Bama here. I think the Tide roll.
25:19
What about a drop in elevation, though, in addition to the drop in altitude? No, this is a question for the listeners. Uh, D- Duke later in that same region. Duke a nine-point favorite over Arizona.
25:29
Do they run out another opponent here, or does Arizona have a puncher's chance? Uh, I, I do think so.
25:34
I'm, I'm not gonna lay it, though, c- I, I think the fact that they played once this year, uh, Tommy Lloyd, who I know you're no fan of, the fact that they have seen this prep before does make me feel like it's gonna be harder for Duke to blow them out again.
25:45
Um, that's just a dumb anecdotal. It's hard to blow a team out twice, but I think in this matchup in this spot, um, it, it might be harder than usual for Duke to extend.
25:53
That said, I think if you're gonna bet this game, uh, why not bet Duke? I think they've just completely, uh, on both sides of the ball, I think Jon Scheyer as a, as a schematic coach has actually been very impressive.
26:03
Um, he's really attacked some good mismatches the first two rounds. I think he can maybe do that again in the rematch. Uh, but at minus nine, I don't think there's a ton of value there. Okay. Um, so I passed.
26:12
What about the two West Regional games tomorrow? We'll take them as a pair. Uh, Texas Tech, five-and-a-half point favorites against the only double-digit seed still a- alive, John Calipari's, uh, Arkansas squad. Yep.
26:22
And then Maryland, Florida. Florida's favored by six. I'm hearing a lot of love for Maryland, and I, I, as a Maryland sort of guy- Really?... I have a lot of friends who went to Maryland. I just don't get that.
26:33
Well, yeah, I'm curious what your take is. I think Florida's the, the bet here. I do too. I haven't officially played it yet. Nice.
26:37
I think there might be some Maryland buyback, but, uh, I'm hoping it doesn't go to seven.
26:40
I think the Florida bigs, uh, the army of bigs they have is, is a good kryptonite to, to the Crab Fives dynamic duo up front in, in Reese and, um, uh, Queen. Thank you. But I...
26:53
The Florida, the, the depth they have in the perimeter as well, I think they come at you in waves of bodies. I'm not sure the Terps can continue to burn the nets at the rate they have.
27:01
I thought the, the Ram Colorado State scout was great against Maryland. You make them shoot a ton of threes. They made a ton of threes, and they still had, had to have that crazy buzzer beater just to get by the Rams.
27:12
The depth has been a concern that Willard cited all season. If it doesn't show up in this game, I think it does show up in the second leg. If they are able to get by Florida, I still think Florida overwhelms.
27:21
I think Florida had their toughest test of the tournament until next game with that tough Hurley scout. I think they roll here. Uh, again, six, no b- is no bargain.
27:30
I'm hoping it comes back down to five with some of that intraskill you mentioned it seems like is out there. It might be coming. Uh, but I will probably lay Florida at six if it doesn't move close to post.
27:38
I think I am too. It's just, for me, it's just a depth thing with Maryland too. Like, at, at some point, your lack of depth has to matter. And Florida- Right. It's not the Crab 10, it's the Crab Five threes, so.
27:47
That's exactly right. That's exactly right. Friday, we'll just give you the quartet of games. You tell me what you like best in chronological order. In the, uh, again, these are in the, uh, South and the Midwest.
27:56
But in chronological order, it's, uh, Mississippi, Michigan State, the Spartans favored by three and a half. Kentucky, Tennessee, the Vols favored by four and a half. Then it is Michigan, Auburn.
28:06
Auburn up to nine-point favorite now. And then Purdue, Houston, with the Cougars favored by eight. What do you like best?
28:12
I got one bet in this, uh, of the, I guess the, uh, this quadrant here or this quartet, as you said. I like Michigan. You kind of alluded to it. I think this spread's too big.
28:20
Uh, the whole narrative is how lucky Michigan is and how much of a fraud they are because they've been winning close games, but a lot of those games they were favored by big numbers, right?
28:27
I think is, this is actually a good spot where they're playing up as a dog, and I think they can keep it really close. Um, Dusty Mason, terrific coach.
28:33
I think the size they have up front with Wolfe and Golden, um, you know, I'm not saying they're gonna outplay Broome and Cardwell, but I think you can at least call that close to a wash.
28:42
And the way Trey Donaldson's playing, stud point guard, a little revenge on his mind playing his old team, I think there's a lot to like here with the, uh, the Wolverines going against the, uh, the big, bad Auburn Tigers.
28:51
So I will take nine if that's... That's just a big number to me. Yeah. I'm on Michigan, and I got the worst of it. I bet it at seven and a half. I was like, "This is too much." Now it's down- I don't get the Auburn run.
29:00
I don't. I really don't. Yeah. Um, I- SEC. SEC steam probably is what it is. Well, they're doing well so far, that's for sure.
29:08
Seven SEC teams, a record in the Sweet 16 as they try to, uh, advance it to record numbers moving forward to the Elite Eight and Final Four as well. Thank you, Matt. Appreciate it. Appreciate you fellas.
29:20
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30:03
With the Sharp Plays, you're joining a team that's never had a losing year. What do you have to lose? Start today. Get access to the best betting insights at sharpplays.com It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Billings.
30:13
This, uh, this gentleman, um, we always have on during the Major League Baseball season. He and I have known each other for, I don't know, what is it going on 14 years, 15 years now?
30:25
Um, we met in like a betting forum in a, and just, we just sort of like game recognized game. We sort of were like simpatico. We understood how we looked at baseball handicapping wise. Uh, fast friends ever since.
30:36
We used to hang out at spring training making up metrics 'cause we're dorks. [laughs] Making up metrics. 'Cause we're total dorks. Oh. Ladies and gentlemen, it's Mark Borchard at Basewinner on Twitter, basewinner.com.
30:47
I'm laying back. Got my mind on my money and my money on my mind. He can also spit some rhymes from time to time. Well, and I, I actually waited for that, so I didn't even step over myself, so that's wonderful.
30:57
[laughs] Uh, yeah, no, I'm happy, happy to be on your show, Gil. It's, it's really great to talk to both of you guys and, uh, yeah, you're right, we, we go back, I think it's 17 years, Gil. Oh my God. Long time.
31:08
Oh my God. Long time.
31:09
And, and, uh, you know, uh, the, the game, to me, the handicapping game, Gil, has, has changed significantly and I think that, uh, maybe you would agree with me, uh, back then you could do XFIP and- Yes...
31:21
maybe a little bit of base runs and, and run it in a Davenport formula and you'd, you, you know, you'd be able to beat the market and it's just really, I think, gotten a little bit more difficult, uh, to do that because everybody, the market's using those same numbers and, uh- Yeah...
31:34
but at the same time, uh, gosh, Gil, the, hmm, the markets have really expanded. I mean, I remember back, oh, I'm, I'm, you know, I'm hearkening back to when I met you.
31:47
You know, maybe you had the three, the three si- you had the run line, you had the money line, and then you had the total, uh, but you didn't have any props, you didn't have any split, split bets, five innings you can go three innings.
31:58
You didn't have- I don't know... you didn't have five innings. People forget that. You didn't have five innings even as recently as like six, seven years ago. They weren't widespread, you know?
32:07
It just sort of in the, in the Vixen era have they, have they sort of come to, to pass. It is incredible, right? I mean, now it's vast, the menu of stuff to bet on.
32:15
It's really amazing and I think challenging, uh, to me, af- with, you know, pretty much half my adult life doing this, Gil, uh, you gotta really kind of pick your spots and there's so many different ways to go and there's so many, so much depth you can get into.
32:30
And really if you look at, at, at, at, at you wanna talk about depth and just Major League Baseball in general, you look at a, at a, at an organization, well, any organiza- z- sorry, organization, uh, in baseball, particularly the Diamondbacks who I'm very high on this year, but they have a, a GM, he's an MIT, uh, PhD, and then they have four or five guys working under them in their, uh, analytics department.
32:56
So I think if that doesn't show you with 30 teams doing the same thing, how vast and how, oh, I guess perplexing, challenging, fun for me, but, but definitely the, the, the former that I just said, uh, baseball data is, then I don't, I don't know what does, Gil.
33:11
Okay. Well let's, let's see how many of these season longs I can coax out of you 'cause I understand you have, uh, you have clients, they're paying for your information as well.
33:18
So we're gonna just, we're, we're not gonna get everything from you, but I just wanna get a couple things. You alluded to the Diamondbacks. Uh, you are high on them. We had somebody else on the show.
33:27
Was it Joe Peta who was very high on the Diamondbacks as well, as I recall? We'll have to check on that one. Yeah, I think it was Joe. You are, someone was though. I think it was Joe.
33:34
Um, w- tell us w- how you are going to bet your bullishness on the Arizona Diamondbacks.
33:39
Well, you can bra- basically bet it a, a mu- many different ways, but I have 'em for best record in the, uh, in baseball at 25 to one. I've got 'em for number one seed in National League at 16 to one.
33:52
Another thing I'm doing is Torey Lovullo, manager of the year at 11 to one.
33:57
And then, uh, pitcher with most wins, uh, close to my heart, Corbin Burns, uh, he elected to stay here, uh, in Phoenix, uh, and, and take a little bit less money.
34:07
I think that's good and I think that, that the stuff is best in baseball or, or maybe second or third best in baseball. I think it's 16 to one, uh, Burns with the most wins is a good opportunity, Gil. Wow.
34:19
So, so number one seed, what was your number on that? Uh, I'm getting 16 to one and, uh, just, I haven't run it today, but I think I ran it a few days ago, uh, a couple days ago actually for the, for the seed.
34:34
Um, and- Because I, I, the, the reason I seize on that obviously is because- Yeah... part and parcel with that is you, that, that would mean that they would ha- win the division, right? And beat the Dodgers.
34:46
Um, so that's pretty incredible also the fact that you would think, you know, that, that it's worth a bet on that. Like, you think whatever number you got, you said 16 to one, that that represents good value. Yeah.
34:56
And so, like, be- before people like, like throw, throw stones at me I guess. Yeah.
35:02
I mean [laughs] I don't know because the Dodgers are getting so much love in the betting market and they're like, "This guy actually have the, the Diamondbacks projected for more wins than the Dodgers."
35:12
Although I do like the Dodgers as well.
35:14
Uh, but, but the way that I'm, I'm projecting things within my simulations and m- and modeling for the futures market is I'm looking at, I'm not looking at like these made up stats, I'm looking at for the, for the bullpen last 300, uh, plate appearances for walk percentage, last 150 plate appearances for strikeout percentage and ground ball percentage.
35:36
And then I evaluate, I get, I come up with a base winner, uh, ERA based on those numbers. So I'm not li- I'm not like totally, you know, making stuff up and then- Oh, no... uh, yeah.
35:45
And so, and then for the offense I'm looking at last 500 plate appearances and I, I'm using base runs created based on an OPS adjusted for, for, uh, for the park factor.
35:56
So they're, they're not these outlandish numbers and then I run 'em in a, in a 5,000 simulation and, and that's, that's what I'm getting, Gil, so.
36:03
Yeah, no, I, I, I really, no, I appreciate you saying that because for, for new listeners who are not familiar with you, there is no one more granular, um, and relevant granular, granular stuff than Mark is with Major League Baseball.
36:15
So these are not just, again, as he put it, he's, he's not just pulling these out of you know where, this is, this is with simulation and then mathematically what represents value. So 16 to one Diamondbacks.
36:27
'Cause, 'cause intuitively I would think 16 to one is not long enough, but you're telling me otherwise and I, and I'll, and I believe you on that. So 16 to one for best record for the Arizona Diamondbacks.
36:38
Well, well check this out, talking about the NL West, Gil. And I, I run this, the Dodgers I understand have two wins, but it goes into the simulations.
36:45
And, and based on the, on the component factors that go into the this, the stuff, uh, I've got the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers with the exact same thing.
36:52
I, I don't think I've ever seen this, 49.3%, uh, to win that division would, would give you plus 103 odds from a true odds standpoint, Gil. So definitely there's value in, in the division plays and really- Yeah...
37:03
everything you can, you can think of on the Diamondbacks, Gil. But, but not l- not World Series, not pennant, because you don't wanna deal with the vagaries of the postseason.
37:14
Oh, no, no, no, I actually have s- I have some plays on them. I just have a lot of futures this year, Gil, so I just, uh, as far as getting to all of them, it's, it's, uh, probably not possible in, in a segment of, of...
37:25
And, and talk about 'em, you know, cohesively, uh, in, in a, in a, in a, even a 15, 30 minute segment. But yeah, a- and then I simulate the playoffs. I, I, I just, just because.
37:34
I, I mean, I think a better play is, is to either make the playoffs or to win in the division. Right.
37:42
I think probably, Gil, the, the, to make the playoffs for me, uh, would, would be, if you had to make one bet on the, on the futures for, for this season, the Diamondbacks to make the playoffs I think would be your bet, Gil.
37:55
Okay. So if you, if you had to distill it to one, that's the way you would go on that.
37:59
Um, before we get to the break, 'cause I wanna get to individual stuff on the other side, give me one more sort of, uh, what might be an outlying base winner projection on a team, like a team that no one i- that, that most people don't have on their radar that you think might be a postseason team, or, or perhaps the opposite, a team that most people think is a done deal that they'll be in the playoffs that you are not nearly as high on and think could miss.
38:22
Well, I'm certainly bullish on these Twins, Gil, and I, I just wanna pull up the, uh, the projections that I have for them, uh, as from, from a wins standpoint.
38:33
And I, I don't have it sorted correctly, but I, I will find them, um, maybe. Uh, there, [laughs] there we go. I've got 'em with 94 roughly wins. Wow. And in the, in the market they're at 83 wins.
38:46
So, uh, there's definitely some value there.
38:49
Some of the fun, uh, plays that I, that I made in this division was I did a, a Minnesota first to Cleveland second division exacta, and, uh, I have that at, at, at plus 760 getting the odds a- and a significant value there based on the, on the, uh, on the projections, Gil.
39:06
A Minnesota Cleveland exacta. For, uh, for those of us who have the under on C- on Cleveland season win total, that's not music to my ears. What do you have projected as the Guardians win total?
39:17
Well, I, I got, I had this thing all sorted, Gil, and now I've gotta- [laughs] Sorry... gotta, gotta look at it. Sorry. Just sorting. No, no, no, it's all, it's all good.
39:24
It's just like, I don't, I mean, I don't even have it sorted by, by a team, like, like alphabetically or whatever. I've, I've got, I've got Cleveland at 84.4 wins, so it's pretty close to market. Okay. Pretty close.
39:34
A little bit- Yeah... little bit, bit over. Yeah. Okay. So we have, uh, Adam Burke and, and Mark Borchardt base winner on one side of Cleveland, uh, Cleveland season win total.
39:42
We have me and Joe Peta on the other going under. Ba, ba, bum. So we have a, we have def- dif- different opinions on that. Okay, I like that.
39:48
So again, the, uh, the Twins Guardians exacta, one two exact in the American League Central. By the way, these are widely available.
39:56
I love the books that put these out, um, at, at over seven to one, plus 760 I believe you said on that? Um- Yeah, it's a, it's great value, Gil. All right. Okay. And he's very bullish on the Diamondbacks.
40:06
We'll get back to, uh, Mark on the other side, some season-long individual stuff, home runs included. It's the numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
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44:51
Gil Alexander, Kelly Billin alongside. Uh, before we get back to, uh, Mark Borchardt, Base Winner at basewinner, basewinner.com, uh, for those interested in all his baseball season longs and his daily baseball plays.
45:02
That's obviously what he does, uh, here starting tomorrow, and, uh, I'm sure he's got his, uh, day one plays. We'll see if we can coax one of them out from him. But, uh, here's what I have.
45:10
Here's the three bets I've made so far, and again, I say so far 'cause there's still time. Um, I, the bottom there are the aforementioned Guardians, under 82 and a half wins. Did a whole, uh, dissertation on that.
45:22
And then the two, the, the monthly and the race to 10, we'll just do these from the bottom up. Twins most wins March, April, 15 to 1. Obviously, the Dodgers with a two-win head start now on that.
45:34
We were hoping for the split in Tokyo, but instead the Dodgers had to go win both of them.
45:38
And then the race to 10 regular season wins, where that's even a bigger deal, the Mets at 17 to 1 are the plays that I made so far in baseball. We bring back Mark Borchardt, Base Winner.
45:48
Um, Mark, opening day, really domestic opening day, right? We, we had the two games in Tokyo, but for real opening day tomorrow, how many plays do you have typically on an, on an opening day? Mm, that's a good question.
46:02
I usually on, on a daily basis will pro- definitely will have the Base Winner parlay. That's an everyday occurrence. [laughs] Uh, e- even if I don't have two players, I'll find one and make the Base Winner parlay.
46:12
But, uh, probably about five to six, Gil. Five to six. Wow. Uh, Steve Fezzik's favorite thing in the world. He goes, "You know this Mark Borchardt, he's so intelligent.
46:20
Clearly he's doing everything by the book, and he's, he's a grand- And then he throws out a parlay at the end." It really drives him crazy. It goes against him.
46:25
[laughs] Well, I can certainly make a case for why play parlays. Yeah. As a matter of fact, I will.
46:29
You know, Gil, one of the things, I, I'm gonna be able to, to, to post, uh, articles and, and analysis on my site this year, which I'm really excited to do.
46:38
And I, that's one of the things I've already written, uh, why play the parlay, a- and that'll, that'll come up here in the next few weeks, Gil. So- All right...
46:44
I, I will re- I will refute that because it's been very, very good for me, Gil. Uh, give us one that you love tomorrow, a game. Well, I'll tell you what, I'm gonna give you, I'm gonna give you a Base Winner parlay.
46:55
Oh, there we go. Uh, and I'm just, I'm gonna go, I'm gonna do it especially for you. Oh, thank you so much. And- We should sponsor this. Oh. We should [laughs] get a sponsor for this. Yeah. [laughs] Brought to you by...
47:04
Yeah. Well, I, I, I guess if it was... No, no, I'm gonna put the Giants in the parlay, Gil. Thank you so much. I guess if it, I guess if it was specially for you, I would do, oh,
47:15
I'll do Balti- Ul- For the Gil Alexander, Baltimore, San Francisco parlay. That's as me as it gets right there. Wow. Wow. A- and, and they all... I'm not just, I'm not just doing this because of you.
47:24
They actually have value according to the model and the components and everything that I do, Gil. All right. So tomor- oh, tomorrow again, opening day Major League Baseball. What did you call it off air?
47:33
What did you call opening day in baseball? What was, what was your term for- New, New Year's Day. New Year's Day for baseball. Uh, Giants- The countdown, the ta- the countdown is right now inside of 24...
47:42
No, not, not quite inside of 24 hours. There's, there's I think maybe 28 hours 'cause there's, there's some, some, uh, early baseball tomorrow, Gil.
47:49
By the, by the way, both of those games that you refer to are basically coin flips.
47:53
Giants, Reds is minus 105 on each side, and then the, uh, the Birds, the Orioles, they are, uh, minus 108 favorites against the, uh, the Jays tomorrow. I got plus 264 on that parlay. Plus 264. Okay.
48:05
Well, and Gil, I think you'll be proud of me because I spared, e- going into Zach Eflin's starting [laughs] for, for the Orioles, and I didn't relate, and now I'm doing it, uh, didn't relate him to Zac Efron, so. I know.
48:17
We, we, we were hoping you would. We, we were [laughs] we can expect those from you in the future, I know. I couldn't resist those. Yeah. All right. Let's get to season-long individuals 'cause I wanna get some of these.
48:25
Let's start with home runs. You have a bet in this market.
48:30
Well, yeah, this was a really fun market for me, uh, to, to get into because for, for me, Gil, I think it's be- if, if Judge stays healthy, I don't think anybody's gonna, gonna get him. And so I was able to...
48:45
So, so and that's a big question, so if he gets healthy. Mm. And I was able to, to run simulations on this and say, "Well- Judge is not gonna be healthy in 25% of these simulations. And so what did it come up with?
48:58
He's still winning 60% of the, of the simulation skill. Even with that, even with that, um- Wow. Interesting... that adjustment there. And, and really if you look at it, if you look at the...
49:10
And this is kind of the f- the, the, the number that I use for home runs, uh, projecting this market, is home runs per plate appearance. And, and I'll just give you the last three years.
49:21
And Judge's 8.4% of his plate appearances result in a home run. And then the next, next best guy is, is Shelley. And, uh, Ohtani's 6.6%, uh, home runs, uh, in his plate appearances.
49:36
And then it goes to Matt Olson, who's, uh, a 5.5% Gil. Aaron Judge with the second, with the second-best home run per plate appearance in the history of baseball. Is that true? Am I reading that right?
49:49
McGwire one, Judge and George Herman Babe Ruth second, followed by Shohei Ohtani. Well, yeah. No, I'm not familiar with, uh- Yeah... I'm not familiar with those two guys, but, but I would believe it.
50:01
[laughs] I can tell you 8 point, 8.4- Yeah... percent is, uh, is, is, is really high. I mean, it's, you know, I think the average is 3%, so he's 5% better than average, uh, from a home runs per plate appearance.
50:14
But one of the things I, I do a- and I think that, that is unique to, to my handicapping style, and I wanna emphasize that as, as somebody who's been in the game for so long.
50:24
You know, guys, take this and, and make it your own style. This is the funnest part about handicapping. But having said that, what I do for these markets is I do a base winner group of five, and I was able to get...
50:36
On, on this market, I was able to get, if you group them and you bet them according to plan, uh, I was able to get plus 219 for these five players.
50:44
And Aaron Judge of course leads it, but I was also the, able to get Matt Olson, Mike Trout, Tyler O'Neill, and Ketel Marte in that group to get those plus 219 odds, Gil. Okay. Repeat that again for folks. Say that again.
51:00
Okay. So, uh, the, the five players in my group betting- Mm-hmm... and you have to split it up. Uh, I'll, I'll put this out for everybody. Uh, I'll send this out, uh, to, to everybody that follows me.
51:12
Uh, so Judge, Olson, Trout, O'Neill, and Ketel Marte in this group. Okay. Um, and what was your price on... Oh, so, so you didn't bet Judge individually? No, I put... So this is kind of how I did it.
51:26
So we'll do, do it from a unit size. Gotcha. So five units. So, so 3.45 units on Judge,.79 on Olson,.31 on Trout,.28 on O'Neill, and.15 on Marte.
51:38
And if you do that, it, it, it comes out to, to odds of plus 219 for that group. Gotcha. Okay. Let's go to Cy Young. What did you come up with here? Well, let's start with the Ame- the National League.
51:51
And basically this is a, a, a methodology, just really quickly. Uh, it's, it's the base winner 150 rank versus market odds. And so the, the National League, I have Skeens, Glasnow.
52:06
I'll, I'll give you the odds too with it. Skeens plus 300, Glasnow plus 1,700, Yama be there at plus 2,500. Sonny G, and you guys know that I rapped about Sonny, Sonny, Sonny, can't you see- Oh...
52:19
the pitches you throw hypnotize teams, uh. And I just love your strikeout rate. I guess I'm gonna bet on you and gonna get paid. Boom. Okay. So anyway, he's, he's at 30 to 1, and then Corbin Burnes at 12 to 1.
52:34
And so you get all those guys and you, you Dutch it a certain way, and I, I, I put that out for everybody that, that supports me. Uh, the group odds are, are plus 121, Gil. Okay.
52:45
Uh, could you define Yama be there for everybody, just in case everybody's wondering? That's, that's Yamamoto- Thank you... from the Dodgers. Okay. Yes. Yeah.
52:51
I just thought I'd throw that out there, 'cause I was so distracted by what was happening during that Well- [laughs] A certain way... well, hopefully we can count on hi- Yeah... so hopefully we can count on him, brother.
52:59
Yeah. You know? [laughs] I see what you did. I- All right. I don't know. I just- I've heard it before, Gil, and I just lost it again. Me too. Me too. Uh, [laughs] American League Cy Young, what did you do there? Okay.
53:11
This is Gerrit Crochet plus 450, Framber Valdez 17 to 1, Jacob deGrom 14 to 1. I've heard of that guy. Cole Ragans 10 to 1, and You Say, You Say Kikuchi 80 to 1.
53:30
And they do play that song, at least they have. I don't know if the Angels are gonna do it. Every time he strikes out a batter, they play You Say, and it's annoying when you're listening to it on the radio, Gil.
53:40
Oh, they go with the, the... Was that the Lisa Loeb? Is that her, is that her song? You Say? I knew you would know that one. Is that Lisa Loeb? I knew you would know that one. I don't know. Yep.
53:47
You know I don't know that song. Oh, he's right. He's right, I think. You Say? Oh, really? Okay. Yep. Um- We got nothing in common. That one? I thought you were gonna go You Say Kikuchi. Yeah, I say...
53:55
You know, that one. Um, okay. Um, wow. That's, uh, [laughs] that was great. All right. So we have all of those bets, and you have made those, um, again, with unit sizing. Or you could... Not flats, right? You...
54:10
The, like you described with home runs. Yeah, no, no, they're, they're, they're adjusted based on the odds. Gotcha.
54:14
So you're gonna get the same return, you know, no ma- if you hit one of those five, you'll get the same return no matter which one of those five hits, Gil. All right.
54:22
Mark, we'll have you on, uh, weekly if you're willing. I know you have a day- Yeah... where you can allot to us, 'cause you're busy otherwise. This is your time of year, man. For sure. We'll definitely fill it in.
54:31
I love talking to you guys. I love this show. I, I love, I, I love being a, a, um, oh, I wanna say consumer, but a listener. A listener's probably a better word, of the show. You...
54:41
Great stuff, great guests, and I'm, I'm glad, I'm proud to be part of one of, one of- Listen, listen... part, be part of one of your guests, right, I guess.
54:47
Listen, we re- we really enjoy baseball/pop culture/music references. We enjoy that from you as well. Don't ever change. Gotta have fun with this stuff. Absolutely. Work hard, have fun. Absolutely.
54:57
That's a good philosophy Thank you, Mark. Appreciate it. Base Winner, everybody, @basewinner, basewinner.com. We'll talk some golf Houston open on the other side right here on the Numbers Game at Feast.
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56:19
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56:26
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56:37
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56:48
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57:02
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