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Mar 3, 2025
A Numbers Game | March 3, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | March 3, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:35
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. If you're one of those idiots who believe in analytics- This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Monday morning to you.
0:10
It is the Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:21
This is Kelly Biddle, everybody, producer number nine, so much more than a producer, live from Circa. How you doing, man? Doing great. How about you? I'm great. Good show. Yeah. Uh, Wes Reynolds will join us.
0:32
Did he hit another golf feature this weekend or not so much? No, I do not believe he was on Joe Highsmith. Okay. I was gonna say. It was- He didn't have Alonzo Highsmith to win the golf tournament? No, no. No.
0:40
That was a very annoying tournament for the Long Shots crew, or I guess I could speak for myself. [laughs] Oh. Did- didn't go so well that one? I remember our text conversation on Friday, it just continued that.
0:49
Like, every outright had a chance, but no, not in the end. Uh, Todd Bubba Horwitz will join us.
0:55
He is a, uh, a veteran options trader who will join us to talk about, uh, sports betting as it relates to trading, h- how you can become a better bettor. We'll discuss things with Todd next hour.
1:06
Uh, we'll talk first pick in the upcoming NFL draft, which we can now officially say is next month. Uh, the n- the moves this weekend in the NFC, Stafford, Deebo, we'll get into all that.
1:16
Carl Sack from Killer Sports to talk NBA, whatever he's playing today. Um, what a luck box win for, uh, Carl yesterday, and for those of us who, uh, tailed him. Did you see this?
1:27
Uh, one of his plays yesterday was the Lakers team total under. I was wondering what last night w- I forgot what number he had gotten it at. It was 109. I got it at 108 and a half.
1:36
The Lakers go into the fourth quarter with, let me do the math here. Boop, boop, boop, boop, boop. I think with, uh, well, they needed 20 points to go over and for us to get sunk. They end up with 19,
1:52
which is just the luck boxiest win of all time. Yeah. Of course Fezzik was on it. That's why it happened. [laughs] So I, so I went on, I went ahead and, like, did the math.
1:59
I went ahead and researched every quarter of the Lakers play this year. Uh, they had played, up until the fourth quarter last night, 235 quarters of basketball.
2:07
They had scored fewer than 20 points in 11 of them- [laughs] That's great... or 4.68% of the time before that 19 point output last night. A- and- So we're all winners...
2:16
as we have often said, and you say a bunch, Gil, recognize when you're getting a little lucky. Oh, my God. And like you said, uh, when, when Steve Fezzik's on the side, you, you know you got something going for you.
2:25
He really pulled out his, his most, most ardent luck boxy, and he dug deep for it, and we got it. I did text Carl, uh, yesterday.
2:32
I was like, "I can't do it again, man," 'cause I was already in lockstep with him on Friday. I know he ended up on the Clippers on Friday. I had hammered the Clippers on Friday.
2:40
This Lakers team, man, oh, boy, it is, uh, six in a row, second in the Western Conference, and it's, uh, I'm not getting in front of them a- anymore right now, Gil. It is, uh, it's impressive what they're doing.
2:51
Uh, Lakers end up winning that game 108 to 102, by the way. Um, okay. Uh, did you watch the Oscars at all yesterday? Uh, for, I don't know, 15 minutes when you and I were texting.
2:59
And the o- the only reaction- I, I forgot when it started... we, we had the same reaction. [laughs] The only thing we said, the only thing we texted each other is, "Good God, Halle Berry's gonna be 59 in August."
3:08
Yeah, 59. That's it. 59. That's all we have to say. Has not aged at all. No. It is incredible. The, you know what I had to do, though?
3:15
You texted me, I kind of forgot they had started, so I flipped it on after you and I were texting. It started, like, 4:00 PM our time.
3:20
Yeah, but, like, you know, it's, it feel like, it feels like it's nine hours of red carpet stuff beforehand, right? So I kn- it's, it's kind of like the Kentucky Derby.
3:27
You never know exactly when it's gonna start because there's so much, there's so much prelude, so much stuff going on. Oh, I thought they started exactly at 7:00 PM Eastern. But you're- I don't know.
3:34
You're probably right... well, I was sweating out clay in Santiago, clay court tournament. I was watching NBA, yeah. By the way, congratulations to everybody who ta- held on, uh, Lazlo Jerry- Oh, nice...
3:44
at plus 330 to win, uh, in Santiago, in Chile. Um, as we head into Indian Wells, by the way, this week, uh, tennis' de facto fifth major. The draw is today for Indian Wells.
3:54
I do a half the pod with Drew this afternoon, the other half with Zach tomorrow, then we'll put it in podcast form. Um, where was I going with that? Oh, the Oscars. Mm.
4:02
So, you know, I was sweating clay whi- watch- watching the Oscars. We should do a sports betting Oscars. Okay. Like, for best achievement in live betting kind of thing, you know, like, categories like that.
4:12
[laughs] I mean, we've done, like, award stuff before around it. Like, the nominees are. Yeah.
4:15
And, like, Wishne- when Wishnev wins his award for best achievement in live betting, he, like, shows up on stage with, like, clothes that he's worn for six consecutive days. [laughs] He's like, "Thanks.
4:24
Really appreciate the award." Yeah, that's a true sports bettor right there. That's right. Really appreciate the award.
4:28
And he give, the impassioned speeches they give, he'll be like, "I hope that, uh, you know, uh, renounced Orthodox Jews like myself who come after me won't have to pay to watch the Summit League College basketball package."
4:39
[laughs] Like, that kind of thing. It'd be a very different kind of show.
4:42
So, so the, the, one of the other parts of, like, why I kind of tuned out again, though, I, I feel like it's becoming more of this every year, but it's like there's a, there's too many, like, intermissions.
4:52
There's too many, like, halftime shows. Like, there's always, like, big shows that I just don't care about. Oh, it's, it's a very unwatchable broadcast. Yeah, yeah.
4:59
I- Unless you're Brian Ortega, and then you like that stuff. Yeah, and I just, like, that part makes me tune out, and then I turn on Clippers-Lakers, and I forget to turn it back again. Like, that's what happens.
5:07
I texted Ortega 'cause Demi Moore got, uh, she got upset for best actress, and I texted him like, "Oh, wow, Demi Moore gets screwed." He goes, "She did not get screwed," and he, like, gets all passionate about it.
5:17
[laughs] I'm like, "Easy. I d- was just mentioning she was the favorite." She was- It's not that big a deal... she was the favorite. [laughs] She's- She's an upset... like, going all in on me. Mikey Madison deserved it.
5:26
All right. Yeah.
5:27
Uh, every Sunday, or excuse me, every Monday leading up to the tournament, the, the tournament itself, the big one, March Madness, the big dance, uh, which is now Selection Sunday, two weeks away, 13 days away now.
5:40
Uh, we started with the first installment last week, but every Monday morning, first thing, we will update the famous college basketball formula. Do we have, we worked on an intro for this at all? Nothing? No, nothing?
5:50
No. Okay. Nothing on college basketball, okay, great. Uh, it's our tried and true college basketball formula, and again, we just update it once, uh, every Monday morning when we start the, uh, week on the show.
5:59
Again, the tried and true formula, six- Bits here. Last 34 champs, more assists than turnovers. 32 of the last eventual NCAA champions, 32 of the last 34 had a head coach with prior Sweet 16 experience.
6:13
28 of the last-- By the way, the exceptions there, Kevin Ollie for the 2014 Yukon Huskies and 2023 Dan Hurley with the Yukon Huskies tw- as well.
6:22
28 of the last 29 champs went into the tournament with at least three wins versus teams in the top 10% of RPI. That's how long we've been doing this, that we had RPI as part of this.
6:31
The only exception, the 2014 Yukon Huskies, the Shabazz Napier led Huskies. Last 29 champs had a top 75 strength of schedule. And then the two KenPom categories.
6:41
21 of the last 22 champs were in the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency at KenPom, the only exception being the 2014 Yukon Huskies. And 21 of the last 22 were in the top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
6:53
The only exception there, the only non-Yukon Huskies exception, the 2021 Baylor Bears, who finished 22nd.
7:01
So last week, uh, the three current teams that qualified to win it all based on those criteria, the, uh, the, the only three teams that qualified last week, uh, Kelly, were Auburn, Duke, and Houston. Mm-hmm.
7:17
Do you know who the teams that qualify this week are? Ooh, I do not. Auburn, Duke, and Houston. I was gonna [laughs]... I wasn't guessing we were gonna have a ton of movement. You gotta be excited. Good job.
7:28
By the way, Auburn plus 340 to win it all. They're the short shot. Duke right behind them at plus 370. Houston at plus 750.
7:35
Now, once again, Florida, which is fourth on the big board at plus 950, the only thing that is excluding them from consideration here, or from qualification I should say, is that their head coach, Todd Golden, never coached in a Sweet 16 before.
7:51
Remember, there's been a couple exceptions to that, Kevin Ollie and Dan Hurley, both of the Yukon Huskies.
7:56
So if Florida is to win it, they will have to be the third exception over three decades' worth of ball to, uh, to get to the promised land on that. Some people believe that.
8:06
Some people believe they're gonna, that Florida's gonna get there, and that they're the best team. So Florida's excluded on that grounds, and they can't ma- obviously he's not coaching a Sweet 16 before.
8:15
This year's doesn't count. So they can't make up for that, uh, you know, that bullet point in the formula.
8:21
Um, the three teams that were closest, that were the, the three teams closest on the outside looking in from Auburn, Duke, and Houston, with Florida being the exception because they have the Sweet 16 disqualifier with the head coach, the three teams last week were Iowa State, just on the outside looking in,
8:42
21st adjusted offense on KenPom, ninth adjusted defense on KenPom. So literally one ranking spot in the KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency rankings. Guess what? Iowa State remains 21st and ninth.
8:54
The closest team on the outside looking in, big win for Iowa State this weekend as well. The second team last week that was the closest on the outside looking in right behind Iowa State, Arizona.
9:06
Arizona remains a, uh, KenPom qualifier in everything else. Tommy Lloyd has coached in Sweet 16 before. That was last year. But Arizona remains on the outside looking in because of the RPI qualifier. Ah.
9:19
Which is they've only beaten Texas Tech and Iowa State. They lose to Iowa State this weekend, their only chance before the conference tournament now, um, to, to make it
9:32
to the qualifier, to, to join Auburn, Duke, and Houston that is, is they still play Kansas. Okay. Okay. So Iowa State and Arizona remain the two closest teams on the outside looking in to Auburn, Duke, and Houston.
9:44
The third closest team has changed. That's the one change from last week to this week, which was last week the, the team that was in third position on, in terms of the outside looking in was Michigan State.
9:55
And Michigan State, despite, despite the buzzer beater win against Maryland... By the way, did you see that? Yeah. Yeah. [laughs] It's unbelievable from beyond half court. By the way, there's March Madness.
10:06
I cannot wait. We've, we've already had March Madness quality finishes in that Michigan State/Maryland game. Obviously, uh, Tennessee and Alabama this weekend was also a buzzer beater.
10:16
How Alabama lost at all in, in regulation, I have no idea.
10:20
Um, but, uh, Michigan State, despite that win against Maryland, despite their win yesterday, uh, they drop offensive a- adjusted efficient, offensive efficiency on KenPom to 32nd.
10:32
So while they're spectacular defensively, and you hear a lot of Michigan State love, they're 28 to one to win it all. Mm. They did drop to 32nd in the, uh, KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency.
10:42
The third team replacing Michigan State is Clemson. Clemson right now, which is 17th adjusted offensive efficiency, 24th adjusted defensive efficiency. So they're the third closest on the outside looking in.
10:57
But that's the only change.
10:58
Uh, the, the three teams that qualified haven't changed, and the, and the two teams closest, uh, remain the same, Iowa State and Arizona, obviously to the qualifiers, Auburn, Duke, and Houston, with Florida having the strange, you know, one category to themselves where they just can't get over it with the, uh, Sweet 16 qualifier.
11:15
Do you, do you have any outright bets? Uh, Alabama from la- I think, okay... from almost at the end of last season. I think, I thought that was true. What number do you have on them? 18 to one. 18?
11:24
I mean, not, not tremendously better than it is now. Like, yo, I think this is... I know they're losing games here, but I'm like kind of okay with it, 'cause just keep drifting. I think I'm gonna get in on them.
11:33
Alabama 37th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Tennessee 27th in adjusted offensive efficiency, if you're wondering about those two squads. We'll come back.
11:44
The National Football League and all the transactions this weekend, our thoughts next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
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12:09
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12:26
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12:32
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12:46
For those of us, uh, who are baseball nerds, and for those who have followed not only this show, but, uh, the Beating the Book podcast and Betting Dork before that, um, 'cause I think he went back all the way to Betting Dork.
12:56
Maybe I'm wrong about that. Maybe it was just Beating The Book. Joe Peta comes out of baseball retirement tomorrow to talk season wins. Nice. Cannot wait for this.
13:06
Uh, Joe, before he wrote his baseball book, Trading Bases, used to have a blog on the Squarespace, uh, tradingbases.squarespace.com, something like that, and he wrote the greatest Major League Baseball, um, season previews i- in his own kind of, in his own kind of numbers way.
13:23
Mm. Um, where, where Adam Burke was, was more volume, Joe's were at a, just a beautiful, you know, Wall Street, um, inspired angle I thought. And, uh, Joe returns to the show tomorrow, comes out of baseball retirement.
13:36
Hasn't done baseball season win totals in I wanna say about five years. Maybe I'm wrong about that. I think it's, like, five years. Wow, okay. Yeah, so looking forward to that. Yeah, it's awesome.
13:45
Always great to have Joe on the show. Uh, yeah, awesome that Circus posted these alts this year, too, so we have those to, uh, go through and everything. That's, it's, it's awesome, man.
13:53
Uh, we get tweets at Beating The Book, always appreciate the feedback. Apparently, uh, Wet Willie Colon and JVT are involved in a little spat. Have you seen this on Twitter? Oh, yeah, it's very entertaining.
14:01
I'm gonna skip over this. It's very entertaining. [laughs] Did, did JVT back the Lakers irrationally or something? Is that what he's saying? Nah, no, no, no. And JVT's like, "I know I didn't."
14:08
I mean, I thought he, I thought he fair- fairly rationally came on here- Yeah, I did too... last week and said, "Hey, I just need to, like, like, I'm not pro or..."
14:15
I mean, I feel like it's a lot of what I've been saying, which is why I kind of feel bad for JVT. He's, he's catching your strays. Yeah, he's, I feel like he's catching my strays- Yeah...
14:22
of just the, "Look, I don't, I don't believe what they're doing with this defense is what we're gonna be able to see throughout the entire, entire run here." Maybe I'm wrong, Gil.
14:31
This team's looked great, but, uh, yeah, I think JVT wasn't fully buying in last week, and, uh, Wet Willie Colon, who, uh, hey, we love, man. We, we like him. He tweets it all the time. Yeah.
14:40
He always tweets good stuff about us. Yeah, we love him. But, uh, apparently, uh, JVT hit a nerve with the Lakers. [laughs] Apparently so. Jeff Cam, "Morning, fellas. Best two hours of my day." Thank you, Jeff.
14:49
"Can we stop giving two-hour windows for college basketball games? Replay is horrible the last two minutes of a game." Jeff, I could not agree more.
14:57
This is an epidemic in college basketball, stuff that should ju- that has no impact on the game, right? No real impact.
15:06
You know, it's like, uh, even games that are out of contention, even, even spreads that don't matter, they will take 30 s- they will take two and a half minutes on some stuff, and you're like, "Oh, for God's sakes, can we just wrap this up?"
15:17
Yeah. There was some game last week that had like three seconds left in it, and we were totally like, "Yeah, you guys should totally take two minutes reviewing this." It's horrible. Uh, Bentley at, uh,
15:27
VT Bentley, "Let's go Lazlo Jerry. My app wasn't offering futures. Their mistake, I rolled three money lines for nearly five to one at the end. Thanks again." Good for you, Bentley. Love it, yeah.
15:37
By the way, if you're a subscriber, vsin.com/picks, if you're a VSiN subscriber, we also had Jerry in the semis at Plus Money.
15:45
We also had Jerry in the finals yesterday at Plus Money against Sebastian Bias, so we ended up with kind of the same number as well. Uh, and this is from Kevin Ryan, "Gil, tuned in late this morning.
15:54
Did I miss the 10-minute rant on Deebo to the Skins? Yes, the Skins." You did not. [laughs] But there's no time like the present. Uh, let's start with Deebo Samuel.
16:04
Deebo Samuel goes to the Washington Commodores, uh, for a, uh, for a fifth-round pick, a fifth-round pick, and, um, this is what you do.
16:17
If you have listened to this show for however long, you have probably heard me say more than once, you can only win Super Bowls one of two ways.
16:26
One, you have a Hall of Fame quarterback, or two, you have a quarterback on a rookie contract that over-performs, so you can pay everybody else big money and surround him, a la Russell Wilson with the Seahawks, for instance, right?
16:41
Um, this is what Washington should be doing. Now, we can quibble, right? [clears throat] Some people are gonna say, "Well, Deebo wasn't any good last week, last year. He's always hurt. You know, this is bad.
16:52
This isn't the guy." Well, you know, in Adam Peters we trust.
16:56
Adam Peters, uh, who came from San Francisco, so obviously already knows Deebo better than everybody, this is a guy that he felt would be a great wide receiver two, complementing the great and comparable Terry McLaurin.
17:08
Um, perfect in Kliff Kingsbury's offense is the, uh, is the angle here. As George Kittle said, pictured there on the screen there briefly, "You can't replace Deebo." You can't.
17:18
Uh, he brings a specific, specific set of skills to every... It sounds like Liam Neeson, uh, to each offense.
17:24
[laughs] And, uh, Adam Peters, uh, the GM, and Kliff Kingsbury, obviously the OC, they feel like this is a perfect fit. And I just wanna say this about Adam Peters.
17:32
It is so great, I'll say this about being a Washington fan, it is so great being a fan of a team that finally has a GM that is making prudent moves in terms of what they're giving up. I get it.
17:46
Deebo has a $17.5 million hit on the salary cap, but you have the space. Right. Right? This team has the space to do it, so do it, and this is the guy they decided they wanted to go after.
17:57
But they only gave up a fifth, only. Let's just sort of give a comparison. The Cowboys gave up a fourth. Yes, I know they got a seventh back, but they gave up a fourth for Jonathan Mingo. Mm-hmm. Um, Adam Peters himself
18:14
And I know they traded also, uh, in addition, I wanna get the, uh, the details of this ex- exactly correct. But Philadelphia traded a th- a third, right? Was it the Eagles when they added Jahan Dotson, right?
18:27
Former first round pick of a previous administration in Washington. Um, Washington got a-- they, they sent Washington a third and two sevenths. Washington traded them Dotson and a fifth, I believe, if I'm honest.
18:39
Mm, yeah, that's what it is. So, but, but Washington, Washington-- So Peters got a third for Dotson, traded a fifth for Deebo, with all of those other qualifications that, all those qualifiers that I just mentioned. But
18:51
regardless of your quibbling on, on the, the details of all of those, generally speaking, we now have the-- Washington now has a GM that makes prudent deals.
19:01
There are so many franchise, and Washington was one of them for twen- for, for a sil- for a quarter century, that was always making stupid trades like the Jerry Jones four.
19:10
"Here's, here's a fourth rounder for Jonathan Mingo," kinda thing. So I think that was awesome, too.
19:15
Um, from a 49ers perspective, it's clearly we need money to pay Brock Purdy, so here's the first guy outta here, um, if there's anybody else. But we had to clear some space for Brock Purdy.
19:25
And I just, I love it for Washington. I get it for San Francisco. But you can't tell me that's not worth the sh- even if Deebo went-- Let's say Deebo ends up being the biggest bust of all of it. You still go for it.
19:37
This is their year. This is their window now. You, you gotta make that trade. It's a home run move. It's a home run move.
19:43
But you can't, like you, it, it's-- Usually you can't say that about deals because you wanna see what the end result is with said player, but it's a home run move because of everything you just said.
19:53
You've got the cap space to do it. Yes. It, it, worst case scenario, it doesn't work out and you miss, you're missed out, missing out on a fifth round pick.
20:01
It, the u- upside that you're gambling on here is completing a team, like you've talked about, Jayden Daniels, yo- star young quarterback on a rookie deal, and you are surrounding him with a bunch of potential great talent.
20:14
Yeah. I, and I love Eagles fans. They're like, "What are you talking about? John Dotson almost scored a touchdown in the Super Bowl." Shut up. [laughs] Enjoy your Super Bowl. It's funny, that one's almost tougher.
20:23
Like the, like Jonathan Mingo one, I guess I could sit here and say, "Well, we don't know it's terrible yet," because we- Yeah, we kinda do... like, we, I guess we haven't really seen him play much with the team, but.
20:34
Anyway, Washington nine to one to win the NFC, double that to win the Super Bowl. They are the fifth shot on the board. The defending champion Eagles are the short shot, followed by the Lions.
20:43
Oh, excuse me, this is to win the NFC. Yeah. The co- commanders are the fifth shot on the board. Eagles, the short shot, followed by the Lions, Niners, and Packers. Well, Packers and Commanders, same number.
20:54
So tied for fourth short shot, uh, is Washington at DraftKings to win the NFC. Um, I'm gonna say that's a little, little long, little long on Washington to win the NFC.
21:07
I really do think the Eagles and Washington are gonna be in this mano a mano in the NFC East for a long time now. Very long time. Now, of course, all of us in Washington were joking.
21:15
As soon as, uh, everybody was thrilled about getting Deebo, the next sentence was, "Now watch the Eagles get Miles Garrett." [laughs] That's right, yeah. Yeah. Now watch the Eagles get Miles Garrett.
21:23
Uh, the other big move, of course, we, we've spent a week with the Matthew Stafford drama wasting our time. [laughs] Goddamn, I guess. And then as soon as, as soon as the show ended, right, it's like, oh, guess what?
21:33
The Rams are re-signing Matthew Stafford. As they should. They'd be so much better with Matthew Stafford.
21:37
Remember I said last week, I'm like, "There's no football person in the Rams organization who thinks they'd be better off with, say, Aaron Rodgers than Matthew Stafford."
21:46
It was just maybe they just couldn't come to terms. Well, they did. And I mentioned Kelly Stafford last week. I'm sure she had a lot to do with this, and reports confirm that she did.
21:56
And so the Rams remain with Stafford. They're right behind Washington, by the way, to win the NFC in terms of the odds at 13 to one. Great for the Rams. Where does Aaron Rodgers end up now? I got no idea.
22:09
Oh, by the way- Man, it's gonna be so tough... all these rumors about the Giants, forget about it. 'Cause w- well, there were also simultaneous rumors, and we'll get to the number one pick here in a couple segments.
22:17
But there was also rumors about the Giants trying to trade up to get number one. Yep. I think that's way more likely than the Giants. Why would the Giants want Aaron Rodgers? I have no idea.
22:26
What, what does that do for them? A- and I d- do we know that Aaron Rodgers even wants to go there? Like the Aaron Rodgers stuff is so tough because of that.
22:33
Palika even mentioned a, a very New York-focused comment about that, where she goes, "There's no way the Mara family is gonna take the Jets' seconds." Mm. Yeah. He used a word before seconds, but you get the idea.
22:45
[laughs] Carl Zack on the NBA next. It's a numbers game at VS, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSIN, the sports betting network.
22:56
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23:07
Sign up today at edgeboost.bet with promo code ANG. ANG as in A Numbers Game. Deposit $25, and Edge Boost will match the deposit. That's edgeboost.bet. Gil Alexander. Kelly Biddle, everybody, live from Circa.
23:20
How you doing? What's going on? Yeah. Doing great. Doing great. I was just talking, I was talking about people, not really to you. Oh, okay. Yeah. Well, I'm sure they're doing okay. Yeah. I'm sure they're great.
23:27
It's Monday. Um, it is Monday. Well, Monday's not great. College basketball tourneys, by the way, this week. Yesterday, uh, began. The Atlantic Sun had a couple games yesterday. It's March, baby. We're finally here.
23:40
Uh, the Atlantic Sun tod- uh, ye- started yesterday. Today nothing starts. Tomorrow it's the Horizon League, the Patriot League, and the Sun Belt.
23:49
Uh, then on Wednesday it's the Big South, the Northeast, Ohio Valley, and Summit League. Uh, Thursday, Missouri Valley, West Coast Conference, which is right here at The Orleans, the lovely Orleans Hotel arena.
24:02
And then Thursday it's, or did I get to Friday already? Colonial Athletic, Southern, America East, Big Sky this weekend. And then of course, next week, all the big conferences. Can't wait.
24:12
Nobody this week at the, uh, the glorious Dollar Loan Center, whatever it's called now. Oh, that's a good question.
24:17
That's a good question I think that's, no, I think that's next week 'cause that's the Big West, I believe Mm. I think you're right. I think that's next week.
24:24
That's the same day where all, like, the, uh, you know, the Big 10 and the Big Easts of the world, uh, all start theirs. Uh, we will get some college basketball thoughts from Wes Reynolds a little later on.
24:32
Maybe he has some futures plays in some of these tourneys. First, though, the NBA with our buddy Carl Sack. Uh, you may know him from, uh, days gone by as the NBA guru with Dr. Bob.
24:41
Now you can find all his stuff at killersports.com and killercappers.com. He joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Carl? I'm doing well. How are you? Good.
24:50
I was just saying off-air, and I said earlier on the show, did you, were you watching the na- the, your cl- your, uh, Lakers team total under get home with 19 fourth-quarter points last night? I was. I was.
25:01
I saw that, uh, missed free throw with about three seconds left, too. That helped. Yeah. [laughs] Yes. Yes, it did.
25:08
For those of us who had 108 and a half and couldn't get the 109, which would've been a push, that helped tremendously. Mm-hmm. That was a hu- a huge swing.
25:15
Um, we, listen, the, we have to recognize when it goes our way sometimes and, um, you know, be honest about those, and, uh, recognize also that the bad beats don't necessarily, uh, outnumber them sometimes.
25:27
But if you're good, I always say this, 'cause people say, "Oh, these things even out." No, I, I, I disagree. I think if you're good at a sport,
25:34
most of those bad, most of them actually go against you, the close ones, 'cause you're usually winning with margin. Do you agree with that? I think that's a really fascinating debate mathematically. Um,
25:48
I will take 500 in those coin flip games personally.
25:52
Um, I, I find that the years that I do, you know, have a down year, it's because I lost a ton of those close games, but, um, yeah, that's, uh, that's an interesting debate to have. Okay.
26:05
It sounds like you d- it sounds like you're, you're, you're on the fence on that. I get it. Okay. Uh, let me talk about some s- some stuff going on here tonight. Houston and OKC.
26:13
Uh, we're looking at, uh, five guys on Houston listed as questionable. Ay. What up with that, and is that a portent of things to come with the Rockets down the stretch do you think?
26:26
You know, so they've, they ruled VanVleet out yesterday, and then all of a sudden five guy- yeah, uh, Eason, uh, Sengun, Thompson, Brooks, Adams all pop up.
26:37
Um, I suspect that with them playing in Indiana tomorrow, uh, in an earlier game, um, relative to tonight's game, that they may just punt on this and just sit everybody practically and, you know, 'cause they're in OKC tonight, and I know, like, OKC's on a back-to-back, but they're, you know, they're about 10-point dogs, and, um, so yeah, this is a tough one.
27:01
I've got some angles and situations that point towards Houston in this game, but, um, I've got a feeling that we're gonna see some more come, come down the injury line here later today.
27:10
The re- the reason I ask that is because if you look at the NBA standings, right, and you even mentioned this, uh, before the show,
27:17
Thunder are, you know, number one with a bullet, 10 games ahead in the loss column, right? Yeah.
27:21
Two through five in the West, with the Lakers being two and the Rockets being five, are separated by two games in the loss column, so one and a half games total to be exact.
27:31
And then six through 10, which of course gets you through the play-in teams, six through 10 is separated by a grand total of a half a game. Half. Yeah. That's it. Talking Cl- Right...
27:45
Clippers, Dubs, T-Wolves, Kings, and Mavericks.
27:48
So if you're the Rockets, I guess because you're the, on the, in the five slot and you have a bit of cushion, right, a bit meaning a lot between now and the end of the season, five games in the loss column, you could conceivably play it cleverly.
28:03
Yeah. Yeah, I think, I think that there's a calculated,
28:07
uh, increasing your chances of winning tomorrow and kind of punting tonight might make more sense than, um, than trying to get both and ultimately ending up getting neither. Carl, where, where are you at right now?
28:20
Houston just in general, this is a team we were all pretty high on earlier in the season. Um, I, I think my expectations have come down a little bit with what, how far I think this team can go out west.
28:30
Uh, the other one I'll throw at you too then is the Lakers and how you're viewing them right now with this six straight wins. How sustainable is this defensive play?
28:37
I, I've got questions, but man, they have looked impressive so far.
28:41
So as far as Houston goes, I, I was really high on them, and they were looking good, but I th- I think that s- part of their recent slump has correlated with VanVleet being out.
28:52
Um, so I'm, I'm still decently high on them. Um, as far as the Lakers go, um, you know, I think a really, an underrated, um, uh, m- move that they made was ch- was trading Russell for Finney-Smith.
29:09
Finney-Smith has been fantastic for them. He brings a level of defense that Russell definitely d- did not. Um, and then they got Vanderbilt back, which is a nice little bench piece. He's a good defender.
29:21
Um, so I mean, yeah, they're playing really well, and, and I don't n- necessarily think it's a fluke.
29:27
Is there a, is there a team or teams that generally on a night-to-night basis when you see the market price on them, if you will, that you sort of nightly have rated higher or lower than the general market consensus?
29:46
Um, recently I think that the market's been a little, I mean, it's been this way all season, but recently still, um, Phoenix and Philly I think are overrated in the market. Um, I think
30:02
there's definitely been a number of games lately where I thought Golden State was underrated in the market, although that might be catching up to them here.
30:08
I'm, I'm, I'm gonna see how the injuries shake out on today's game, um, with Charlotte, but, 'cause that line has caught up. Um, and I would say Boston is a team that I think
30:22
You know, you, you gotta pick your spots with them. Sometimes, um, when they're... Like yesterday's game, I thought that they were underrated. You th- they're coming off of a loss.
30:31
Um, they're playing a Denver team that they had lost to twice last year. Um, so I expected them to be focused. But also
30:40
in games where they're coming off of wins, they're just awful against the spread, and they've been awful against the spread as double-digit favorites too. So it's, it's kinda situational, I guess.
30:48
A math guy like yourself, when they, when they're beating Cleveland 25 to three, and it's sort of this big brother-little brother thing, and they come back, Cleveland does, and beats the Celtics, do you read anything extra into that?
30:58
Or are you so sort of agnostic on this that it just doesn't, doesn't penetrate your thinking on anything? In terms of, like, how I'm adjusting my numbers, my, my base power numbers, no, I don't think it changes anything.
31:13
I really just for the most part look at the final score. Um, but in terms of how that game is going to stick in Boston's mind, um, I think it's, it stings.
31:24
It's a little embarrassing, and I think that, uh, next time they play it'll be on their minds. We have a 254, if I'm not mistaken, tonight between the Hawks and the Grizzlies.
31:33
This has gotta be the highest total of the year, right? It is, yeah. I think it w- the highest one coming into tonight was 250. Um, and my numbers actually make this a little bit higher than the 254 that it's at. Wow.
31:45
Although Morant is questionable, so that could impact things a little bit. But Memphis is, Memphis has pushed things all year.
31:53
Um, these two teams have the fastest pace in the league, and, um, Memphis is the fastest, and then since the All-Star break it, they still have a, or since the start of the year, they still both have been the fastest team.
32:07
So they've continued to push. And like I said, even with Morant out, they will still, um, both these teams are still gonna run. What did you land on tonight, or what are you, uh, close to landing on?
32:17
What are you looking for? You know, to be honest, I, I need some of these injuries to shake out. I'm not wild about this card.
32:25
Normally I'll have a number of bets on the overnight lines and, um, have some good positions that I like at this point, but I'm not wild about anything, to be honest. Um, I guess it,
32:37
you know, I think the Sacramento under is worth a look right now with Sabonis out. Um,
32:43
and Dallas has struggled to find offense, um, now that Luka's gone, and then Gafford and Lively have left a pretty big hole at the center of their team. Uh, Powell came back and he slows things down a little bit.
32:59
But, um, yeah, I think, I think maybe that's worth a, a look towards the under at 230. What is it, 232-ish right now, something like that? All right, 231 and a half is where we have it right now. Yeah.
33:11
Not an official play though. Carl, uh, still, uh, trying to determine that. And again, killersports.com is where you can, uh, find all, excuse me, killersports.com and then killercappers.com.
33:21
The latter is where you can find all of his plays. Um, Carl, appreciate it as always. Thanks for having me on, Gil. You got it.
33:29
Carl Sack, everybody, a man who moves NBA lines when he releases his plays, courtesy of aggressive guest line. We'll come back, back to the National Football League. Thoughts on the number one pick.
33:39
Where does this stand now? It's the Numbers Game at VSIN, the Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSIN, the Sports Betting Network.
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34:19
Skill Alexander, we get tweets at Beating the Book. Jack in a Prius 2.0, "Can we talk about the mindless foul with.1 seconds left before halftime of the St. John's game that put the first half over 62 and a half?" Oof.
34:33
#badbeat. Oh, there are so many of these. If you watch college basketball enough, you will run into these. That was particularly bad. That's rough. Yeah.
34:40
Hey, the, the other, like, when you, uh, Carl said it last segment, but the missed free throw helping them out too.
34:45
I'm like, missed free throws in the NBA versus missed free throws in college basketball are not the same thing. There was a, um, no they are not. There was a, what was a over, we had an over yesterday.
34:56
I wanna say it was LIU. Don't hold me to that. No, uh, where that was the other day. There was some game yesterday where we had an over that needed, like, five points in the last four minutes and didn't get there.
35:06
Oh my gosh. It's just impossible. So as im- as impossible a win that Carl's was, that was as impossible a loss.
35:13
I mean, if you do this enough, if you, if you're betting, you know, double-digit games or double-digit bets a day, you will inevitably run into these. In college basketball, man, you, you'll see everything in that sport.
35:22
Oh, everything. Like, in, in a season. Everything. Like, you know, just a missed free throw parade. Right, yes. Yeah. Like, I mean, you'll see it all. How did Alabama lose that game in regulation?
35:33
It was like missed free throw, foul, foul again, five-second violation, Tennessee buzzer beater. We were dissecting the last 3.8 seconds of that game, by the way. Did, did the clock start a little late?
35:47
Did the shot get off? The shot definitely got off. It was 0.1 seconds left on the clock, uh, Tennessee's buzzer beater to beat Alabama. Alabama in a murderer's row here to finish the regular season.
35:56
Um, and maybe the clock started a little late, but, like, human beings can't, like, physically start it any faster than that, so I don't think there was anything wrong with it.
36:06
Uh, New Jersey, New York, "I'm going to explain the Giants rumors as simply as possible," he says. "John Mara in his Black Monday presser said the roster isn't better now, is not better now than when the regime came in.
36:16
Quarterback is the number one priority, priority, and he had better be happier at the end of next season." Oh, I remember that from Hard Knocks. "Shane and Day Ball are very desperate." Yeah. Well, yes they are.
36:25
But what does Aaron Rodgers do for you? Seriously. Moneyline Marv, "I was hoping your take on the Deebo trade was, 'I'm just happy we have a GM that isn't just signing, drafting Alabama defensive players anymore.'"
36:36
[laughs] Yes, that too. As a matter of fact, Jonathan Allen might be on the way out Speaking to that. Nathan Henry: "Rogers is going to Minnesota.
36:43
Only team that makes perfect sense unless the Niners bail on Purdy," which the Niners are not gonna do. And I mentioned that last week, that it does feel like Minnesota strangely, in a, in a Brett Favre- Mm-hmm...
36:54
kind of way, right? You know, legendary Green Bay quarterback somehow ends up in their archrival's uniform. That's kind of the only team that makes a little sense to me. There's very few. I'm with you. Very few.
37:06
I'm with you. Like, they're one of them- I have-... but there are very few to me. I have a better idea. Just take your toys and go home and retire.
37:12
I, and I think that's, I think that's way more live than other people do apparently. Just go away. The Numbers Guys: "Man, Michigan State going the wrong way in KenPom offensive efficiency.
37:21
That'll make you shake your head. They went through a murderer's row in February and March. I'm not sure how to calculate that, but I'll say this, Big Ten might be overrated, but Michigan State is definitely its best."
37:30
I'm with you, The Numbers Guys. I know that the, the formula is harsh on them, but man, you can't say a bad word about Izzo's team right now. What is it, uh, what's it January, February Izzo? That's the expression.
37:41
Um, that is a scrappy little team. I just don't know if they have enough offense. 'Cause re- again, March Madness, a six-game gauntlet, right? You gotta get through six. That's what we were talking about Alabama affairs.
37:51
Yeah. Well, Alabama could conceivably shoot you to a title, but they gotta do it six times in a row. Right. I, I think I'm gonna bet 'em, Gill. Like, I, I don't have a problem- Yeah... with these losses here.
38:01
I think I'm gonna be joining you on that because, because of that, just the variance. You get in the tournament, you have s- you have a hot shooting streak in a few games- I know... you're looking pretty good.
38:09
The Real Joby: "Will there be an Indian Wells betting preview podcast this week to set the stage for tennis' de facto fifth major?" Yes. Thank you for us- [laughs] Thank you for using my language. Yes.
38:17
Again, uh, the draw comes out today. This is such a quick turnaround 'cause the draw is this afternoon, I think 3:00 PM Pacific. The tournament starts on Wednesday.
38:27
So Drew Dincic is actually getting off the ski slopes, this is a true story, coming off the ski slopes to do the first half of the pod with me, and then Zach Cohen will do the second half tomorrow morning.
38:38
I think the Zach Cohen part will be on Twitter Live. We'll put them together. We'll have a podcast for you tomorrow. A full less than 24 hours before the actual tournament starts. But yes, can't wait.
38:48
And I'm going on Friday. I'm so excited, Kelly. I was just gonna ask- Oh my God... you, it's this weekend, right? Yeah, you're going.
38:52
Oh, I, the, the second the show leaves on Friday, my mind- What a- My mind will be there. You driving out there? How long is that drive? I drove there two years ago through the desert.
39:02
Maybe the most irresponsible thing I've ever done in my life. [laughs] Um, I'll, I'll take a flight this time. Yeah. Wait, wait, why? 'Cause of the, 'cause, 'cause your car situation?
39:09
'Cause, 'cause my car's an electric car. Yeah. [laughs] And if the battery somehow goes out in the middle of...
39:14
And by the way, you see the battery thing, like all of a sudden jump down in the middle of the desert, you're like, "Oh my God." You have a heart attack? Yeah.
39:19
[laughs] If, 'cause if you get stalled out there, it's like you're, you're done for. Done for. 'Cause it is total desert. Yeah. Yep. You have no idea how remote you get. So what's the al- what's the alternative then?
39:28
It, from Vegas to Palm Springs, the alternative is, 'cause you have three routes and they're all through the desert in some form, the alternative is I fly to Phoenix and then to Palm Springs.
39:39
It's too close for a direct flight. Oh my gosh, that's hilarious. Yeah. Oh, I'm doing that. So, so is that, is that what you're doing? That's what I'm doing this year.
39:44
You're going to Phoenix then [laughs] And then once having done both of them- That's nuts... I'll decide what I'll do in the future. You gonna pick up Zach Cohen on your way? [laughs] Yeah, pick up Zach.
39:51
Meet me at the airport, Zach. Oh, is he in Phoenix? Yeah, yeah. He lives right outside of Phoenix. Oh, I, oh, I had no idea. Yeah. Okay. Um, this is from now NFL Combine. This is from Lindsay Rhodes.
40:01
Lindsay Rhodes, one of the many who attended the NFL Combine. She works at Sumer Sports, which is where our buddy Eric Eager used to work, at Sumer Sports. She used to be on the NFL Network as well.
40:10
She said, uh, "As I leave Indy, a thread of my takeaways," and the first couple of her takeaways are this, "Cam Ward is more highly regarded than I previously thought.
40:19
People I talked to rattled off comfort- comfortably quite a few things they liked about him as a prospect. I would not be surprised if he went number one."
40:29
She went on to say, two, "I think the gap between Ward and Shedeur Sanders is bigger than it's being described. A chasm," according to Mike Renner, our buddy, called it. Mm-hmm.
40:39
"He thinks Sanders is closer to Dart than he is to Ward.
40:44
I didn't talk to anyone who had Sanders as their QB1, and everyone," in quotes, "I talked to about why he might go in the top five," talking about Sanders now, "mentioned quarterback-needy teams as the top reason.
40:56
That feels like poor process to me. Risky. I wouldn't be surprised if he went later than expected." So that's an interesting take, and I think a relatively consensus, just anecdotally what you've sort of taken in- Yep...
41:08
from people at the combine. Um, now getting to, okay, so does that make you wanna bet Cam Ward at number one? [laughs] I gotta tell you, man, it does not. I just have no, I have no real sense of this draft because
41:23
is Tennessee really not gonna take a quarterback? I think they will. I actually, I actually made a bet. You did. What did you bet? I made a bet, first overall Cam Ward. How, what was your price? Minus 190. You took it.
41:35
And I was maxed out at the shop in town that posted this at a total of $30, Gill. 30- So I have a $30 bet on Cam Ward. Hey, look, don't, don't sell yourself short. Those were 30 United States dollars.
41:47
[laughs] Cam Ward now minus 200 at DraftKings and FanDuel, minus 210 at MGM to go number one.
41:54
Abdul Carter from Penn State is, uh, second on the list at plus 180 in a couple of those spots, plus 185 in a third, and then it's Travis Hunter, followed by Shedeur, followed by Jaxson Dart, who's way longer than the rest of them.
42:08
Um, I just don't... Have, have you seen Cam Ward play football? Yeah. Okay. He is not exactly, how can I put this, a quick processor of information.
42:18
I, I don't think Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders, I'm just gonna say right now, I don't think they're gonna be great.
42:24
And as we look back on Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix, they both played college football forever at two big-time programs. Mm-hmm.
42:32
That is the one thing those two guys had in common, and that's going to be more of a rule moving forward, right, with the transfer portal as, as our football lives progress. I just don't think Ward or Sanders is
42:47
going to be great. I could very well be wrong, right? I, that's my in- in, that's my impression. But does that still mean that teams won't desperately try- Right... to overdraft a quarterback?
42:58
Of course not, because you're nothing without a quarterback. The question becomes will someone, will someone just send to the Titans an offer?
43:06
Like, if the Titans don't, or don't care about drafting a quarterback, which seems like the, the consensus right now, which I don't get, because what, you're gonna go into a season and you still don't have a quarterback?
43:15
Okay, and they wanna draft Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter, great. But then what's a better bet?
43:21
Is a better bet to bet at how you did, that Cam Ward minus 190, now minus 200 to go number one, or is it better to take a flyer on a team like the Giants to trade up where you can still get, I think, very short plus money to go number one?
43:34
Um, yeah. You, you didn't wanna risk it. I, I, yeah, I hear you. I know, uh, Michael Montesano made that bet, right? Yeah. Uh, late, late last week. Great on him. Uh- He got it at, he got it at, like, five to one.
43:43
Yeah, like five to one now. Yeah. Like, yeah, there's signal kind of pointing that the Giants might try to make that move. It's...
43:48
I, I think for me it got to the point, Gill, of regardless, Tennessee is quarterback needy, and the demand out there for, from these teams to just need a quarterback, it, whether it's a trade or not, I think it ends up being Cam Ward at this point that goes number one.
44:02
This is not nearly as, as fun, and I know it didn't work out, but, like, the year that C.J. Stroud, like, I was convinced C.J. Stroud was going number one. Yeah. Surely Carolina is trading up to draft C.J. Stroud.
44:13
Maybe I'm better off not having convictions [laughs] because that obviously led to ruin there. And maybe it's Carter.
44:18
Like, look, even, even if I could have bet it bigger, which I would've liked to, I still wouldn't be a massive bet for me at this point 'cause there's still a lot of questions out there. Yeah. It's gonna be interesting.
44:28
Draft more than a month away, but we can say now next month. Wes Reynolds on the other side. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
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