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Mar 4, 2026
A Numbers Game | March 4, 2026 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | March 4, 2026 | Hour 1
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45:07
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
There's a numbers game at VSiN, eSports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM channel 158. Gil Alexander, Kelly Midlin. Hello. On this Wednesday at Circa Resort Casino.
0:23
A beautiful morning here at Circa, which is jam-packed by the way. Yeah, what's going on? I have no idea. Do you, do you re- ever remember seeing it this busy though at this time? It's gotta be a convention of some kind.
0:34
Uh, yeah, it's something like that. Yeah. Yeah, it is. Let's make up a convention. I don't know. There's a lot of lanyards and, uh, pullovers upstairs running around. Lanyards. I remember when I learned that word.
0:44
[laughs] I'm like, "What's a lanyard?" [laughs] "What's a badge? Is that what you're talking about?" Well, was the- A lanyard...
0:48
was the one, you know, I, I learned, like, just in VSiN history, uh, was the, uh, stanchions. Stanchions. Stanchions, 'cause we used to have to protect the South Point studio.
0:57
Well, we have, actually the stanchions work quite well out here as well too. Wait, what's the thing that holds up a basket in a basketball game? I, I don't, I don't know. That's not a stanchion? Maybe.
1:06
What am I thinking of? No, no. Oh, yeah, yeah, like the NBA ones? Yeah. Yeah, I think you're right, or, like, the professional ones. Well, I think we're done here today. Oh, that was a great show. Good show, man.
1:14
Nice job. Did I learn something? Nice job. Thanks for coming in. On the show today, I guess we'll stay, Greg Peterson, college hoops.
1:20
He's got his Fab Five picks today, and this is that week, remember, where some teams are playing regular season, your, your regular r- restaurant variety regular season basketball games, and others
1:34
are in conference tournaments. So he will have a, uh, little mix of that in his Fab Five. Couple conference tournament games today, ASUN being one of them.
1:44
Uh, that tournament kicks off, or tips, tips off, I should say, today, uh, as does, uh, one of his other picks, so, uh, three other standard ones from bigger conferences.
1:53
The triumphant return of Joe Sheehan to the show today, talking MLB with us. That's right. We- Looking forward to that. We had him on when you were out, well, you were out of town.
2:00
Oh, so- But he's look- he's looking forward to talking to you. Well, then, uh, no- not triumphant anymore. Just a return. He, he's already had his victory. Well, the triumphant, uh, reunification of you and Joe Sheehan.
2:11
Well said. Will Hill later, all of his bets. Um, Nick Whelan, who's coming off his, uh, moderation of the MLB draft yesterday here at VSiN, talk NBA with us. Prop points is Nick Whelan.
2:24
And then, uh, later on in the show, Kelly, if, if I was not privy to the, if I was not a part of this, I would not believe it. If someone told me about Todd Wishnev and his college basketball performance- Mm...
2:36
I'd be like, "You're lying." Even more in fuego in the past week? Or you're, or you're, or you're fudging it, or- Yeah, yeah... you're doing something wrong. The dude is ridiculous. He's absolutely ridiculous.
2:45
So we will throw, I know we did a little bit of this last week, but we will throw conference tournament, uh, numbers at him, actual numbers to win said tournaments, and, um,
2:55
we'll, he'll get his sort of instant reaction to who might be good bets in those small conference tournaments that have been lined already.
3:02
By the way, I mentioned Nick Whelan moderated the, uh, first ever MLB draft, futures draft, MLB futures draft here at VSiN yesterday. A good time was had by all. Nice. Good job by Nick.
3:12
I'm sure that's gotta be the toughest job- Yeah... is just, uh, directing all you guys. Moderating. Yeah. Um, let's see.
3:21
I thanked Lance Lynn for his, uh, starting pitching performance, opening day 2013, when both Joe Peta and me, uh- [laughs]... hit on a plus 158 dog with him on the mound. Yeah, I mean, it was right- I was-...
3:30
right after us yesterday, so I didn't catch any of this. I- I was finishing up stuff with Danny. I was greeted with a blank stare. [laughs] Uh, I told Jeff Erickson I hated him- [laughs]...
3:39
when he, uh, picked Logan Webb for Cy Young in the NL. Uh, let's see, what else? Tried to get people to bet jerks and profar- props off air to no avail. Matt Youmans under cashed on- [laughs] I heard that...
3:53
on All Monitor. [laughs] That was an easy under. [laughs] Blank stares abounding once again. Adam Burke, uh, apparently believes that, uh, I'm, I'm an actual stooge, not one that plays that on the radio.
4:03
[laughs] He's like, "Do you even know how many categories you have left?" I'm like, "Yes, Adam, I'm very well prepared over here. I don't know what you're thinking, man." Uh, it was fun.
4:09
It was really fun, and everybody, like you saw, [laughs] when Mark Borchardt recited Jensen Lewis's career stats at one point, which got a little awkward. [laughs] That was a whole thing. It's a whole thing.
4:19
It wa- it wasn't- Yeah... met with la- laughter or... It was, it was a, it was, it was a very serious room. Okay, yeah. I tried, tried, you know- Yeah... some of us tried to quip.
4:29
Hey, man- I don't think not everybody loved quips... it, it, you do drafts- Yeah... like this, it gets competitive. [laughs] Matt Br- Matt Brown, by the way, a, a documented 2-0 to start the draft yesterday.
4:38
He went, uh, I think Dodgers to win the World Series and, and Shohei to win, or the other way around, Shohei to win MVP and then Dodgers to win the World Series. I believe those were her fir- his first two picks.
4:48
Maybe I'm wrong. And he just declared victory? It is 2-0. He's out of here, 2-0. [laughs] Was trying to go 10-0 at one point. Um, but everybody loves their draft.
4:54
Mark, uh, Borchardt, base winner, he was pumped about his draft. He's like, "I love my draft," afterwards. He was super thrilled to be included in it. Um, I love mine, love my draft as well.
5:04
What was interesting was, and I know we'll talk about this a little later, but it was interesting that with drafts like this, right, you never know how they're, how the other folks are going to go.
5:14
When does the run begin? Right. And it sort of reflects actual drafts, right? Oh, those are one, run on wide receivers. Everybody grab their wide receiver, right? Yeah, we had a Bengals run in the NFL one, right?
5:22
[laughs] I believe I was, I was sadly part- Oh, yeah, you caught up in it... part, I might have started the Bengals run.
5:28
Yeah, I think there was a Bengals run, and then, and then side by side it was Dave Ross betting Cowboys players in the sa- [laughs]... in the same categories, but nobody was challenging him with that.
5:36
Well, well, yesterday it was a AL MVP run. Like, all of a sudden people just- Oh... started grabbing AL MVP. So I, I wasn't gonna take Julio Rodriguez that early.
5:44
I figured I could wait, but I was at, at one point early I was like, "Yeah, I better, I better grab him real quick." Um, but yeah, I, I'm pretty pumped by it.
5:52
We'll find out how it all goes between now and the end of the season. I mean, it's looking- So there was that... looking pretty damn good to me. Who, who, so who did you start? What were your first few?
5:59
I had the fourth pick. I went with Tarik Skubal, AL Cy Young, plus 350. Okay. I wanted to grab that. A little bang for your buck on the plus 350. Um- Like that one makes sense to me as being your first pick.
6:10
I have no idea what, like these, there's a bunch I could say that I would think is your second pick. My second pick was, I don't even remember. I can- Jackson Merrill? No, no, no. Okay. That was way down.
6:21
I'll tell you what my second pick was. I don't- Rangers? I don't even remember. [laughs] I want you to stop peppering me with e- [laughs] Every single one of...
6:28
Uh, no, let me just- Well, I know it's a lot of the bets you like, so I can't, you know, it's all the strategy, right? Do you wanna get out in front so someone doesn't steal it- That's correct... or can you wait on it?
6:36
Well, that's where I think the Julio Rodriguez thing came in. I wasn't planning. So my second was Julio Rodriguez AL MVP, which I was sort of forced into, I felt, which I wasn't gonna do.
6:45
My third was Texas to win the AL Pennant. Baltimore to win the AL East was fourth, then Jackson Merrill 'cause I wanted one long shot in there. Kevin McConnel, AL Rookie of the Year.
6:54
Katse, AL Manager of the Year with the Oakland Athletics. Wheeler, NL Cy Young was still on the board. I needed to fill that category, so I had to do it. Then the season win total, right? Cleveland under 79 and a half.
7:05
Oh, Texas World Series 30 to one, and then White Sox over 66 and a half to close it out. So there was that. I'm a little surprised that one was still left on the board. Well, you know, what is it, 110 picks, I guess?
7:18
Yeah, I was surprised it was there too. Yeah. Uh, okay. Let's, uh, let's talk about what we wanna talk about here, which is NBA Tankapalooza. Let's start there. How about a six-legger? What a night, Gil. What a night.
7:30
For 1.3 units yesterday. We gotta talk about this league in general. What a product this is. And by product I mean, oh my God. Brain dead Tankapalooza six-leg parlay hits yesterday for, uh, 1.377.
7:42
Actually, more like 1.378 units. So we are now 3 and 0, 12 and 0 on legs- Mm-hmm... if you wanna put those together, for plus 2.67 units. And again, this is something we haven't done in eight years.
7:55
Again, shout out to whoever pulled up the gr- the, uh, font for Tankapalooza 2018 up at the top. That looks so 2018 too, doesn't it? But, but, bruh, I, I don't, I don't, like, wait. You still don't know who did that?
8:06
Y- I'm, it's the greatest mystery in VSIN history. Really? Ryan Pineda apparently drew this freehand over the weekend. And I'm like, I, I still don't know if he was... I, I don't know, man.
8:19
I don't- Well, we got- It doesn't make any sense... we, we got the original Tankapalooza from Lollapalooza. Right. So the re- Which looks much like that. That's right, and so this is what we used in 2018.
8:28
Anyway, point is- [laughs] A, a easy-peasy, can we call it, relatively easy six-legger. I guess the, uh, the T Wolves played with their food for a little while last night.
8:37
I ended up watching way more of that game than I thought I was going to. Um, OKC without Shay, by the way. What did I say about ab injuries? Mm-hmm. They're gonna manage it. He missed the game yesterday.
8:46
OKC still won in our six-leg parlay. Anyway, we hit it. Um, and so congratulations to all. And this is something we do just in the background.
8:56
There's a reason we call them brain dead, but it really is just sort of capitalizing on the eight teams that are clearly tanking. We can show the tiers, uh, that we have.
9:07
By the way, today we have, yes, to answer your question, 'cause I know you're asking it, do we have one today? We do. Um, this is a Sixers-Blazers-Clippers three-legger today.
9:19
This one pays, uh, was it 85 cents on the dollar? 83 cents on the dollar? Something like that.
9:25
And, um, that's the, that's the three-legger today, so we're gonna continue this and try to just sort of incrementally add units. We're early March. NBA regular season goes all the way into April.
9:36
[laughs] We'll do this as long as it's working. Um, so that's the one tonight.
9:42
Sixers-Blazers-Clippers, which just to, uh, be more, uh, be more thorough about it, the Sixers are hosting the Jazz, the Blazers are at the Grizzlies, and the Clippers are hosting the Pacers. Three tanking teams, Jazz,
9:58
Grizzlies, Pacers. Grizzlies on a back-to-back. [coughs] So there you go. That's tonight's. But, but last night's- God, the Blazers better win that game. [laughs] Yeah, they better.
10:08
I got these win totals and I'm starting to sweat, man. And Denny, Denny just, ugh, sucks. This sucks.
10:13
Ye- yesterday's was a Hornets over, oh, so Hornets over Mavs, Magic over Wiz, Heat over Nets, Thunder over the Bulls, T-Wolves over the Grizzlies, Suns over the Kings late night. That's w- last night.
10:28
So a- as Kelly said yesterday, we probably won't have another day where six of the eight are, are in action, but we took advantage. Yeah, man, it was a clean sweep by me yesterday for NBA too. It was great.
10:37
It was- Spurs were easy. Knicks, Knicks in the under, all that stuff got home, man. I think Carl Sack went four in one or something like that too. I mean, I mean, what kind of league is this?
10:46
So you have the tanking teams, right? And then the Spurs, at one point I looked up, they were beating the Sixers by like 46 points. Yeah, it was 40-something. It's, uh, yeah, at one point.
10:55
Does, does Adam Silver sit in his chair and go, "This is a beautiful product I have here"? [laughs] Yeah. Even, check out your rundown. How often do I put...
11:02
You know what I, like, I went through the college basketball notes from last night, and then I was like, "All right, important NBA notes." I'm like, "Besides the Tankapalooza, there's nothing to write here."
11:11
There's nothing there. Like, there's nothing of significance to take away from, from what happened in the association last night.
11:17
And, uh, we'll show, we'll show the streaks again, streaks in quotes, to the, to the bottom of the league, uh, after the break. But we also have country clubbing to do, 'cause I got some Indian Wells matches today.
11:28
I got three of them. One on the men's side, two on the ladies' side. Nice. And I have three quarters that I bet on the ladies' side as Indian Wells begins this morning, tennis' fifth major from the desert in California.
11:43
We'll do all that next, and some golf as well on a numbers game at VSIN, the Sports Betting Network. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners.
11:55
But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home. Pros win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline, and now so can you. VSIN Pro gives you access to the same real-time insights the sharps use.
12:06
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12:21
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back with the Numbers Game live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas.
12:33
Don't forget about our Major League Baseball betting guide, the great work of Adam Burke and Jensen Lewis. I don't even wanna say there's a crew with this.
12:41
Th- these two guys really, obviously, people put it together, but they were the two prominently featured in this as well. I don't wanna take away credit from anybody else.
12:49
Um, MLB betting guide, in-depth previews for all 30 teams, deep dive into whether money really buys championships, MVP, Cy Young awards analysis, complete stats, glossary, and key terms to know, expert betting insight from VSiN pro team, plus player perspective from former MLB pitcher and VSiN host Jensen Lewis.
13:05
Download the guide right now for just $19.99, or become a VSiN pro subscriber and get the guide included along with daily best bets, real-time betting splits, AI-powered prop tools, and 24/7 video on the VSiN WATCH app.
13:15
Visit vsin.com/guide. That's V-S-I-N.com/guide. We get tweets at Beating The Book. Y'all are the best. Best listeners in the game. Appreciate it, as always. This is from, uh, [laughs]
13:29
Buddhistman starts the morning with, "Good morning, Cat." That's a reference to Schrodinger's cat. You know, cat, you don't know if the, you don't know if the cat is alive or dead until it is seen with your eyes.
13:40
Yeah, man. When it's in the box, you don't know if it's alive or dead until you see it alive afterwards. What he's referring to is waking up to see that the brain-dead parlay hit. "Good morning, Cat," he says.
13:50
I did the, yeah, I did the same thing. I did not make it to the end of that Suns game. I, I had it tied into a couple.
13:54
Roger Jones ATM, he says, "Nick, Slick Nick 312, easy work last night on the NBA brain-dead parlay six for six." Um, Mike P. informing us that Aryna Sabalenka got engaged. Ha. Fade. Fade.
14:11
As I said on the podcast, on the Indian Wells podcast, which you can still listen to on the Beating The Book feed, I just have a feeling about her in this tournament that she's gonna go early.
14:19
Eric Pock, "Since quarter winners don't seem to be available, what are your thoughts on rolling money lines for some of your top picks?" Well, quarters are available, which we'll get to momentarily, Eric, @BetMGM.
14:29
We'll talk about those momentarily. Las Vegas 514, "Yo, the MLB Baseball Draft has to become an annual occurrence. Very informative, quite entertaining. Nick Whalen, permanent moderator per Matt Humans.
14:38
Run it back next year." Oh, did Matt say that? Okay. Nick coming up on the show. Jason H11, "Kelly, to sum up the draft, Gilly and Matt Brown were the two children in the room full of stiffs," he said. Yeah.
14:48
[laughs] What? Why you calling everybody that? We were children, though. Mikey P.- I was gonna say it sounds right, but the, uh, I didn't wanna agree with the f- well, the, the latter part No, not the stiffs part.
14:58
Yeah, no. The two children part I'll agree with, yeah. Mikey P., "Lanyards and quarter zips, never met a work conference or convention they didn't like." [laughs] Exactly. Kelly rockin' the quarter zip right now.
15:07
Exactly, man. [laughs] Chris Heath- Yeah, but you know, like, the company quarter zip, right? It's always like that. Yeah. Chris Heath, "How do you manage tank-on-tank?" We don't touch it.
15:15
We don't touch tank-on-tank teams. Not a part of this. LFC Title Records, "Six-leg tanker paid plus 188 on Prophet X. Thank you, Gil." Thank you.
15:25
Minky Monkey Man, "Hit a seven-leg tankapalooza tailing you cats last night. I just threw in the Lakers. So much fun and a reason to watch a Jazz game." See, everybody's getting frisky with it.
15:34
Gil, you had to sweat out that Lakers finish. And then HoopsByHoots, "What's your unit sizing for tennis quarter futures?" Um, I'm not doing a bunch of sizing, to be honest with you, on the futures. I pretty much go
15:49
evenly with all. So I'm not, like, lessening my number with a longer shot, which I know a lot of people do. When it comes to tennis, I am kind of flat unity when it comes to the futures. Oh, that's interesting.
16:04
Well- We've had this chat before 'cause- Yeah... I was gonna say the, you usually are same, roughly same size on futures as you are on match bets too, right? Correct.
16:12
But in terms of- I guess we haven't talked about- But, but I don't alter between future and future, which I know a lot of people do. Yeah, which I do in golf. Right. Yeah.
16:19
No, no, I don't do that if I, because I don't do that many, right? Gol- you guys in golf are doing, like, eight- Mm... nine of them, so I understand why you're unit sizing. Not me. Yeah.
16:27
No, 'cause if I hit Spurs-Celtics to win to a matchup in the NBA finals, oh, I'm cashing. There's no unit sizing there. Without further ado, let's go country clubbing. Let's do it. No? Oh, a little start. Look at that.
16:42
[upbeat music] There we go. Got frozen. Oh. [laughs] That's too quick. Of course, toys were, uh, just getting the glow sticks ready. Ben W- Ben Wilson's family, very excited.
16:53
You know, Danny, you don't need to give me that face now. I called him out the other day for not looking very excited. Now he's doing the way over the top excited face. [laughs] With the glow sticks? Yeah. Okay.
17:03
So Indian Wells, tennis' fifth major today. Again, it's hard courts, but they are super-duper slow hard courts. Um, pl- players complain. Like a Daniil Medvedev, loves playing on hard courts and hates clay kinda guy.
17:14
He hates these hard courts, complained about it over the years. So y- last year they, they switched surfaces. They're like, "We're gonna make this faster." Didn't make it faster. Ball bounces a little lower, still slow.
17:24
Maybe even slower, some players say. Um, I kinda dig it. I kinda like that it's different from other hard courts. I have three plays today. Before we get to the quarters, I have three plays today. On the men's side,
17:36
a guy who does not love clay at all, he's a, he loves fast hard courts, but I, uh, I stayed in the same hotel as he did last year. A little flex there for you. Oh, there you go. Adrian Mannarino plus 223.
17:48
I saw him studying these matches. He would watch them as he got knocked out early. He is taking on Matteo Berrettini. Matteo Berrettini has been playing clay courts early this season.
18:00
Uh, Berrettini's best days behind him, and he has not played on anything but clay here in the early going. I think Mannarino at plus 223 with a game that can very much frustrate Berrettini is a play today.
18:14
Not only do I think it, I made it, uh, Mannarino plus 223 versus Matteo Berrettini. On the ladies' side- One dog, one favorite. Zeynep Sönmez, our girl, Turkish, +118 versus the American McCartney Kessler.
18:28
Sönmez has done very well for us, her early in the season. And on the lady's side as well, Xuai Zhang, -120 versus Dayana Yastremska. I believe you say Zhang Xuai, by the way.
18:38
-120 versus Dayana Yastremska, who is a player who can try to hit through you, but on this surface that will work against her. So Mannarino on the men's side, big dog. Sönmez, small dog on the lady side.
18:52
Zhang Xuai, a slight favorite on the lady side. Those are the three day one Indian Wells plays. Those came out, uh, for VSAN, uh, subscribers late last night because they had...
19:03
took a long time for them to parse out the schedule where they're like... 'Cause every f- they just throw out tons of matches- Mm... and you're like, "Okay. Well, which are these on the first day?"
19:11
Took 'em a while to get to that. The, uh, the Quick Kelly reactions on Gilbet's, uh, Matteo Berrettini I feel like has been a guy you've backed a fair amount- Oh, yeah... uh, here recently. Oh, he's been great. Yeah.
19:21
He, he's had a great career. Okay. That stuck out to me. And then Zey- old Zeynep. Zeynep. Zeynep you've bet at least three times here- Well-... in the past couple weeks... numbers are good. All right. Numbers are good.
19:29
Um, then in addition to the Iga Świątek outright, which I mentioned yesterday at +650, she has won this tournament twice. I have not one, not two, but three quarter plays all on the lady side. First quarter, Eva Jovic,
19:45
the teenage American, 12 to 1 in the first quarter. That's Aryna Sabalenka's quarter. I was talking about this on the podcast. I just don't believe that this is Sabalenka's tournament.
19:57
This has not historically been her tournament, I don't think it is here either, and I think Jovic could pull the, uh, shocker and win this quarter at 12 to 1.
20:06
Second quarter, which is the Coco Gauff quarter, which is the most up in the air, Coco with all of her serving problems, I'm going with the Filipina sensation Alexandra Eala at 14 to 1. Eala. Is that what the kids say?
20:19
Eala. Yeah, it's... Yeah. Uh, and then the fourth quarter I'm taking Iga. That's what the Eala fans say. Iga +175. Iga in the fourth quarter as well.
20:26
So Jovic 12 to 1 first quarter, Eala 14 to 1 second quarter, Iga fourth quarter +175, and Iga outright. Those are the futures.
20:34
Um, it's not what the West Gate calls them, but those are the futures in a tennis tournament, and that is the story there.
20:41
Now, the problem again with this tournament is there's only a 36-hour turnaround between draw and start of tournament.
20:48
Takes even longer than, makes it an even shorter window by the time odds come out for outrights, makes it even shorter when the quarters come out. So I only saw them at BetMGM. Stations put these out yet?
20:58
I keep forgetting about Stations. Hmm. Y- yeah, you do, you do, man. You do. Okay. You do, you do. Okay. You do. I was looking at DraftKings right now. Oh, okay. Iga...
21:07
Yeah, Jovic 11 to 1 there, so you get a better number. Always, I'm always fascinated by the quarters. I like the number better. Yeah, so that's the deal. That Rybakina-Pegula quarter looks pretty boo- brutal.
21:17
Well, we hit, just to give you a little, uh, you know, in the Australian Open, remember, we hit Pegula at four to one to win her quarter. Yep. And we were one set away from hitting Lorenzo Musetti at +650 in his quarter.
21:31
He was up two sets on Djokovic, one set away from winning his quarter, and then he retired with an injury, which was brutality for us in the, uh, in the Australian Open.
21:40
So running it back here with, uh, three ladies in their respective quarters here at Indian Wells. Yeah, y- and then Eala, that, uh, shop around for that price. See, I'm seeing a 20 out there. Oh, okay. There you go.
21:52
You get a better number than I did. But that's, that's another one. Is that another one? Where are you seeing the 20? Uh, over at DraftKings. Oh, okay. The, um- Good on DraftKings for putting out quarters...
21:59
is that one where it's, uh, like you're, you're just not high on Coco still, right? No, I just think that's, the second quarter is the most up in the air. Mm-hmm. There's, there's a bunch of...
22:07
Like, Alexandrova's in there. Townsend is in there. Paolini is in there. And Coco- Linda Nosková...
22:13
Linda Nosková is in there, but, but Coco Gauff just has too much trouble with her serve and where she's shouting at the coach in the middle of it.
22:21
She goes, "I'm doing everything you're telling me to do," right, that kind of thing. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. So, um, that's very much up in the air. And, uh, anyway, those are the bets for me.
22:29
That's where I believe the value is. You tailing? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Gonna shop around. I will be in.
22:34
I li- I, as I texted you yesterday, I lo- I love these, the sunshine double, 'cause I, I tail G- Gi- Gil Tennis bets 'cause I like to watch the events, so I don't get to ta- I don't tail every one when it's- If you tail, you don't watch.
22:44
Yeah, ex- yeah, pretty much, yeah. Yeah. And I love watching these events. I love tennis. [exhales] Just wish more of it was in the US. [laughs] Well, I don't know if you know this, but they play it all over the world.
22:54
Yeah. Uh, there might be some trouble with folks getting back from Dubai, by the way. Dude, I, I- So I don't know... saw a report yesterday. I think LIV Golf is kind of on hold this week because of that.
23:03
There's like eight golfers stranded. It's, it's terrible. Yeah, not good. Not good. We'll come back. Nick Whelan, senior analyst at Rotowire, talk NBA with him and how he felt the MLB draft went yesterday.
23:14
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23:26
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23:36
The sharp plays at sharpplays.com. We got tweets. Meet in the book. Larry Fresh, "I got Iga 6 to 1 to win Indian Wells after listening to the podcast.
23:45
Brain dead parlay hit yesterday and a breakdown on lanyards and stanchions. Gotta love a numbers game." Yeah, stanchions, lanyards, we do it all. JB Uncle Bush, "Eala 22 to 1 at DraftKings," he points out, as we have.
23:58
Yeah, I didn't think anybody else would have... First of all, we don't have DraftKings here. Nobody else I don't think has quarters here in town when I looked. Colin Murphy- Stations, 22 to 1. St- oh, Stations does.
24:08
That's right. I always forget about Station. Okay, we're good. Just told it to you like 45 seconds ago. [laughs] No, no, no, I know. I forgot again. Colin Murphy, "Let's go two in a row.
24:17
Let's go with your boy Chris Kirk first round leader. Florida swing is when he heats up and he has a couple of low first rounds on this track." I don't hate it. Okay. Chris Kirk, good approach numbers.
24:27
Uh, he is a, if you wanna go the big picture, take a step back sort of thing overview, right, of just strokes gained total, like in Florida, I think he's like third on that list. Billy Horschel's up there too.
24:39
Dan Groeschel, PSA, I got Ayala to win the quarter 22 to 1 on DraftKings. Oh, and Tronsky, John Osher. So he's, he's betting at Bet365. Did you see this? They put up completely wrong Indian Wells futures numbers.
24:57
In a good way? In like a spectacularly unbelievably bad... Right. Well, good from, good if they pay them. Right. Yeah. I don't know what the story is. Tronsky's asking me why. Are they gonna... Yeah, I don't know.
25:09
I don't know what their policy is. He, he grabbed Iga at 28 to 1 and Nisimova 125 to 1. Taylor Townsend the favorite at plus 120. Yep. Like, they completely botched it.
25:23
I know what I would do, and I know other gamblers would have different opinions on this, but, uh- What would you do?...
25:27
I, I'd hit them and I'd hit them hard, and then you're probably gonna plan on not being able to bet there again.
25:32
Well, if they, if they give you the deal of, "You can have this money, but you'll never bet here again-" Yeah... I, I would take the deal. Like me and you have talked about. Yeah. Well,
25:40
I'll take the money every time there. Yeah. Take the money. Well- There's other shops... if it's significant enough, yes. Absolutely. Nick Whelan joins us now.
25:47
He is the co-host of Prop Points, which follows us each and every day, he and Jeff Erickson. Of course, he is a RotoWire senior writer as well, and he was the moderator of the MLB Futures Draft yesterday.
25:59
He's also multitasking. He's also taking care of his months old baby, who is at his, at his foot right now, I believe, lying down comfortably. Nick Whelan, everybody.
26:10
@Whelan, substitute the one for the letter L on Twitter. How you doing, Nick? Doing well, guys. Can, can exhale a little bit after a, an intense MLB Futures Draft. Yeah.
26:21
You know, just herding cats yesterday with- [laughs]... uh, all the baseball experts on there. I think we had, what, 10 or 11 people on screen at once, but, uh, felt pretty good about how it went.
26:30
You know, would've been nice to, to be able to participate in the draft. Uh, I, I see why VSIN did not allow me to do that.
26:35
I wouldn't say I'm, I'm the noted, uh, baseball portion of Prop Points, but, uh, encourage everybody to go check that out. I know the YouTube version is already up over at VSIN Live.
26:44
Did Nick just say he would crush all of us if he was participating? Is that what just happened? Uh, no, I think he just said- Absolutely not...
26:49
he wished he would, would have been- It, it would, it would just be all Brewers... yeah. Oh, it'd just be all Brewers. [laughs] All Brewers. Yeah. [laughs] Every Brewers...
26:53
But yeah, he do, he was very excited every time- Y-... every time a Brewers thing was picked. Yeah, you had the toughest- Yeah... job, Nick, so great job. Yeah. Great, great job. Thank you. Thank you.
27:01
Um, can I just ask you before we get into your, 'cause you have a bunch of props here in the National Basketball Association, some thoughts on some games.
27:07
Yeah, just I, I sort of mentioned this to Kelly in the first segment. So, you know, six tanking teams last night, and they all were tankerrific. Uh, in addition to that- Mm-hmm...
27:18
you had games that w- didn't even involve tanks, where the Spurs just obliterate the Sixers. What do, what do you have to say about this product at this point?
27:27
Is it more bettable, less bettable, or just as bettable as ever? I, I would say about as bettable as ever.
27:34
You know, I think there actually is some value in these, like, tanking on tanking games if you're, if you're following the rotations.
27:41
Um, you know, teams like Sacramento and Memphis have kinda fallen into some predictable patterns. You know, the Grizzlies, for instance, play just, they just play everybody, like, 20 to 26 minutes every single night.
27:51
Uh, you know, we, we did see the reintroduction of Ty Jerome, of Cedric Coward last night, so we'll see if that continues.
27:57
But, uh, I, I think the, you know, be- because so many of these teams have been tanking for weeks or months already, uh, you could track some of those patterns. Now, we do still have some unpredictability.
28:06
For instance, Trae Young just coming back tomorrow night for the Wizards for some reason. I have no idea, uh, why they're making that decision. Where did that come from?
28:13
I don't know if it's just to- Yeah, where did that come from? I have no idea. And it, it makes you wonder- And Adam Silver, you know, he-... it's like, are we gonna see Anthony Davis at some point for the Wizards?
28:20
I don't know. Hmm. We were convinced that we weren't gonna see Trae Young at all this year- Well, it was-... with the Wizards.
28:24
And- With- within 24 hours, you heard Giannis was coming back and Trae Young, Trae Young was coming back. I was like, "All right, show me the email that Adam Silver sent out." Yeah.
28:31
Like, this is- And, and Taj Gibson is signing with the Grizzlies... take that. Yeah. Yeah. Taj. Uh, let's start with, uh, Giannis, since Kelly brings up Giannis. Mm-hmm. You have thoughts on Giannis back in the lineup.
28:41
You have a prop on him tonight. Yeah, looking at Hawks-Bucks, a tight spread here. Uh, you know, Milwaukee, I, I think, has shown us for, for better or for worse, they are trying to win games.
28:51
Uh, they're kinda stuck in the middle right now.
28:53
They've had a couple terrible losses these last few nights, probably their worst loss of the year on Sunday against the Chicago Bulls, so it's gonna be an uphill battle to get into the play-in, but it's even more of an uphill battle to fall the way, you know, fall all the way down in the lottery odds to the point where you would feel good, uh, about your pick jumping up.
29:08
So I think this should be a competitive spot against the Hawks, both teams mostly healthy. I'm looking at Giannis over 10 and a half boards tonight at plus 107.
29:17
Did play just 25 minutes against Boston the other night, but obviously that was his first game back. The game turned into a blowout.
29:23
Still went over this number against a Boston team that allows the third fewest rebounds in the NBA. Atlanta, on the complete other end of the spectrum, they're one of the 10 worst rebounding teams in the association.
29:34
Uh, one previous matchup earlier this season, Giannis went for 17 boards against this Hawks team. All right. Sixers boat raced by the Spurs last night by 40. They are hosting the Jazz tonight, the tanking Jazz.
29:48
You have a play on Tyrese Maxey here. Yeah, I mean, the Sixers are in a free fall right now. Like you said, got, uh, I guess we'll use the term shellacked by the, the San Antonio Spurs on national TV last night.
30:00
Kind of ruined what was a very cool throwback broadcast for, for NBC, but- Yeah...
30:04
the Sixers are now one and seven straight up in their last seven, or one and six, excuse me, in their last seven games without Joel Embiid, who is still out tonight. Uh, they're 24th in net rating over the last 10 games.
30:15
They're just four and six straight up in that span. However, this is an interesting trend spot. Second night of a back-to-back, you're going up against a bad team at home.
30:22
Philly's 10 and one ATS on the second night of back-to-backs this season. They're covering those games by over nine points per game. It's also an im- important loss tonight for the Utah Jazz.
30:32
Uh, they have the fifth worst record right now. They're still in position to, to maybe move into the bottom four, where you get the, the smooth odds.
30:39
Uh, and their pick is top eight protected, so they're as incentivized as just about anybody to, to continue losing down the stretch. I look at this as a potential over spot, 237 and a half.
30:48
I don't really trust either of these defenses, especially without Embiid, and both of these teams have been terrible on the glass. So Adem Bona over five and a half boards is intriguing.
30:57
We saw Andre Drummond play only five minutes last night, picked up three fouls in those five minutes, so maybe they lean more heavily on Bona. Uh, and then you mentioned Maxey.
31:05
He kinda just has to do everything right now for the Sixers. When Embiid isn't out there, it's the Tyrese Maxey show. The usage rate is insane, so I'm looking at the over 43 and a half on the PRA.
31:14
Hornets at the Celtics, interesting Eastern Conference game tonight. Brandon Miller has a, uh, a PRA of 27 and a half. Which way you going on that? Yeah, I, I lean over here.
31:25
You know, it's, it's a tough match-up in the first meeting of the season, by the way, between these two teams, so we don't necessarily have, you know, even a one-game sample to pull from.
31:33
Charlotte has just been rolling over bad teams of late. They, they smacked around the Mavericks last night.
31:38
Uh, they are 10 and 2 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back, by the way, uh, so it could be a decent spot for them to, to hang around here.
31:45
I would lean toward grabbing points with Charlotte, but I like the Miller prop as well, over 27 and a half on the points, rebounds, assists.
31:52
He can be inefficient night to night, but he's just launching a ton of threes, a ton of shots in general. Uh, Charlotte has been a great defense in terms of limiting opponent threes.
32:00
Boston has been closer to league average, and, you know, that's just looking at, you know, opponent three-point attempts per game.
32:06
And considering how slowly Boston plays, I mean, they're giving up one of the highest three-point attempt rates, uh, in the league.
32:11
So there's always the fear with Brandon Miller that he could go, like, 2 of 13 from three, which he does, like, every four or five games, but I think the volume will be there, uh, against the Celtics tonight.
32:20
Pacers have lost 10 of 12, just your run-of-the-mill tanking streak. Uh, you have a play on their team total. You going under on this against the Clippers tonight? [sighs] Yeah, I, I think you gotta go under.
32:31
Um, you know, we do have some injury situations we need to monitor here. Siakam, NeSmith, Nembhard, all questionable. Zubac has already been ruled out.
32:38
It does seem like Obi Toppin is going to play, but I'm not really sure that matters all that much. Clippers have been a great defensive team. Uh, they've been playing really slowly, uh, as well.
32:47
Pacers are one of the top teams in terms of pace, but I see this as a spot more so, uh, where the Clippers could kind of exert their style on what will likely be a very limited version of the Pacers.
32:57
You know, the, the way that Indiana and most of these bad teams can hang around or, or put up points, you know, against even average teams like the Clippers is putting up a bunch of threes.
33:05
Clippers have been one of the best defenses in the NBA over the last month, top five in terms of limiting opponent three-point attempts, uh, limiting opponent three-point efficiency.
33:14
So, uh, I don't have high hopes tonight for the Pacers making the, the cross-country road trip out to LA. I'll go under on that team total. Uh, before you go, last 30 seconds, Thunder are at the Knicks tonight.
33:25
Obviously a game of intrigue. Mm-hmm. Uh, do we know if Shay is going after last night? Uh, I have to check if they officially announced it. He... They're listing him as probable. Yeah. Uh, I, I think he's gonna play.
33:36
You know, they, they gave him the, the injury management tag- Yeah... last night, so it doesn't appear there's actually, you know, anything going on with that abdominal injury.
33:43
I think this was a, "Hey, we could beat the Bulls without you, and we want you out there against the Knicks tonight." They plan on managing, quote-unquote, this abdominal strain down the stretch with- Manage away...
33:53
the, with the 65-game- Yeah... floor in mind. Manage away, me and Gil say. Yes. Manage and get too close to the line, and then don't have it in your control suddenly- Yeah... for those of us who have bets.
34:06
Thank you, Nick. Appreciate it. Anytime, guys. Nick Wale, co-host of Prop Points after this show, 1:00 PM Eastern. Coming back on a Numbers Game right here at VSiN.
34:15
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on the Numbers Game, live from Circa Resort Casino, Downtown Las Vegas.
34:32
Gil Alexander, Kelly Midland. My little buddy, Kelly Midland. Sup? Who, uh, went through my weight, now has me way in the rear view. Eh, yo-yoing. What are you doing with the hair? Are you doing a man bun at some point?
34:47
What's going- No, it's looking damn good today though, I'll tell you that much. Total, total physical transformation for this kid. [laughs] Lose over 100 pounds, grows out the hair. The hair's an adventure.
34:55
It was a nightmare on this show on Monday. I think it looks pretty good today. We get- It's just growing... we get tweets. Edward Lefever, "Gil, why no love for Vicky Mboko? Great, uh, pretty good form so far.
35:05
PS, I still think you're sleeping on Paula. Just kidding." [laughs] Love Paula Badosa. Uh, Vicky Mboko was, is, was absolutely someone that I looked at as well in this, uh, in the quarters. I expect her to do very well.
35:17
V- Victoria Mboko will win a slam at some point in her life. Um, Mboko is in that first quarter as well with Sabalenka and Jovic. I just like Jovic better in this tournament.
35:33
Uh, this is from, uh, let's see, Trevor Warwick, "Question for Todd. Will you be opening up a Discord before March Madness?" We will ask him that. I'm not sure if he will or not. He might.
35:42
Chance Copperpot, I'm like Kelly, I have no idea how to spell or say any of these names. "I'm looking for the quarter and wondering where this is no yalla. I found a 22 to 1."
35:49
You said to parlay all these quarters, right? Right? [laughs] Chance, you, these people will do whatever they want to- Well done. Was that Chance?... to get a parlay out of it. Chance. Chance, well done, Chance.
35:58
Well done... he's like 10 American dollars at 647 to 1. Well done. Man. And Chris Heath, "Such a great time of year ahead of us with all this day betting to be had.
36:05
If I wasn't a remediated math teacher, I would fly to Vegas and stay Sunday to Friday from the Bay." Is he quoting, uh, quoting some lyrics there? He says, "Ring any bells, Gil?" I'm not sure. Hmm, I don't know.
36:16
Ladies and gentlemen, he is, uh, on a streaks, massive streaks, of running 12 miles a day. Talking about thousands of days of doing a college basketball podcast.
36:29
We're talking thousands of days in a row on that as well, and the part that we'd really sort of minimize when he comes on the show, he is also a beer connoisseur. Yeah.
36:38
It is the great Greg Peterson, everybody, @gunit_81. Conference tournaments, who better to talk to than Greg? Greg, good morning to you.
36:48
Good morning to you, Gil, and yes, about 2,300 straight days on the College Basketball Podcast. So many straight days on the run, so many great days on just consecutive beers reviewed as well. It doesn't matter.
37:02
We're a man of consistency here, and it's a great time of year. Would you, would you, uh, just a couple beer questions, we'll get to college basketball. One, when was the first time you had a beer? How old were you?
37:12
I had to have been like 10, maybe 11 years old. I was at, like, my cousin's wedding. [laughs] My parents are like, "Oh, we're having beer. You wanna try a little sip?"
37:22
It was, at the time, I'm not gonna name the, uh, product, but it's one of the most well-known products out there. I was like, "Sure." I thought that it was very disgusting. Still not a fan of the beer to the day.
37:33
I thought that it was awful, but let's just say that I tried other products that I thought were much better than this mainstream product. Wow. It's a tough question, 'cause, like, I don't...
37:41
When did you have your first sip of beer? Like, yeah, like, when I was like, I don't know, eight probably from my dad. Oh, my dad, same thing.
37:48
Like, when's the first time that, like, you puked on your front lawn from, like, a long night out, you know? Yeah, like, high school. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Bro, Skins were playing the Houston Oilers.
37:56
Benny Malone was carrying the football, and my dad goes, "Have a shlook of this Schlitz." [laughs] Shlook was his word for sip. It was disgusting. I never had a beer again. Schlitz.
38:04
Well, just give us one beer that, that you recommend that you loved yesterday or the day before. Oh, Treehouse. If you ever have the King Julius beer, they're out there in the great state of Massachusetts.
38:15
One of the best beers ever. And if you ever go to the great state of Wisconsin, Spotted Cow. I will live by Spotted Cow. Our very own Brett Musburger a few years ago- Hmm... had a Spotted Cow in studio as well.
38:25
I'm sure that he was a fan as well. Always will recommend the Spotted Cow. There it is. I've enjoyed a few, uh, Spotted Cows. I'm with you, Greg. That's a good beer. Yes. Great.
38:33
Greg Peterson, college basketball plus on a Saturday. Oh, yeah. Yeah. All right, Greg, to college basketball.
38:38
I just want to point this out before we get to your fab five picks today, which include conference tournament games and not conference tournament games. Miami of Ohio squeaks by again. Ooh. Again. Let's go, RedHawks.
38:50
They are making this fascinating. One more regular season game at Ohio on Friday. It's getting dicey, but that's it. They win that, they're 31 and 0.
39:00
Uh, do you believe they do that, first of all, and then is this even a controversy? I keep, s- I keep seeing it being a controversy. This can't be a controversy, right?
39:11
31 and 0 no matter what happens in the MAC they're in, correct? The Big Dance. They have to be in, in my opinion.
39:17
Like, how could the committee look themselves in the mirror and be like, "Oh, this team went 31 and 0 in the regular season.
39:24
TCU, who lost to New Orleans in the regular season on their home floor, you get in, but the team that went 31 and 0 does not."
39:32
Like, a lot of people are gonna poop on their schedule and everything like that, be like, "Oh," this, that, and the other. Like, I...
39:38
You've got Gene from accounting who didn't know what a Quad 1 win was 48 hours ago- [laughs]... trying to leave out Miami of Ohio. It's absolutely ridiculous right now. You play to win the game.
39:49
They've went 30 and 0, and I believe they do get there. This Ohio Bobcats team, it's a big intrastate rivalry that they're gonna be having. They are not the same team that they've been in the past.
40:00
I think that they get the job done if they're 31 and 0 in the regular season. If you leave them out of the tournament, like, what are you saying?
40:06
You're saying that the regular season for these mid-major teams just simply does not matter. I don't think that college basketball wants to go down that rabbit hole, so they have to be in, in my opinion.
40:15
Gene from accounting catching some strays there from Greg, by the way. Gene, get back to work, man. Sorry, Gene.
40:20
Be- better q- better question, if they lose and they go 30 and 1, and then they don't win the MAC, are they in then? 'Cause if you lose one game, you're still always in, right?
40:34
I think that there have been four teams that have won 30 and 0 to start a season ever since the, uh, the, uh, turn of the millennium, since 2000. Every one of them got a one seed.
40:45
Like, if we're saying that the first four teams got a one seed and you get left out of the NCAA tournament, again, what are we doing here? And now they use something called WAB, wins above bubble. Miami is a top 35 team.
40:58
They're all the teams in, I believe, the top 40 last year made the NCAA tournament. In my opinion, again, they've won 30 regular season games.
41:06
In the eyes of Committee 27, because three of those games were against NAIA teams, so you throw those out, and I agree with that, I still think you put them in. I do, too. Okay, to Greg Peterson's fab five picks.
41:18
Let us begin with an early game. This one tips off in just over an hour. This is an Atlantic Sun tournament game. First rounder between Bellarmine, Kelly, Bellarmine and Jacksonville.
41:30
Bellarmine favored by one and a half. What do you got? Yep, we are gonna be fading the Dolphins, even though it's in the city of Jacksonville. It's over at North Florida Arena.
41:39
But that said, with Bellarmine, they are an awful defense. They are out of 365 Division I teams, they are 65th. Typically, I don't back these bad defenses, but Jacksonville, they're not doing a whole lot right.
41:49
They've got one double figure scorer in Haywood. You got a Bellarmine team that as bad as they are on defense, they're really good on offense.
41:55
They're a top 20 team in terms of two-point shooting percentage, three-point shooting percentage. If they need to cover at the free throw line, they shoot 78.8%.
42:02
At the charity stripe, that's a top 20 mark in the country. Jacksonville not doing a whole lot right in terms of guarding the three-point line. They've been fragile on the inside.
42:11
I think that Bellarmine in a shootout gets the job done. I personally took the over. I like 147 half to the over, and I took Bellarmine laying a point half. Bellarmine laying the point and a half.
42:20
Okay, this not a conference tournament game. This is your run-of-the-mill Atlantic 10 game, Fordham and LaSalle. Total at 133 and a half. We're showing 132 here. What do you got?
42:31
Yep, this total has went down, and these are not two run-of-the-mill offenses. They are very bad in terms of offense because they're both very slow. Fordham outside the top 350 in terms of total possessions per game.
42:41
LaSalle more around three hundred. LaSalle 340th in terms of points scored on a per possession basis.
42:46
No second and third chances to be had here against Fordham team that is in the top 30 in terms of points, or in terms of rebound percentage. Top 65 team in terms of points allowed on a per possession basis.
42:56
LaSalle is not getting any offense going whatsoever. This has all the makings of a slog. Right now, seeing a total of 132, I like the under.
43:04
A10 tournament begins next week, as does the ACC tournament, but you have a play on SMU Miami today. Yes, I think that SMU goes bombs away from three-point range.
43:13
Miami in games played away from home outside the top 290 in terms of opponents' three-point shooting percentage. SMU is a team that's in the top 25 with regards to their three-point shooting percentage.
43:23
SMU not playing a lot of defense outside the top 150 in terms of points allowed on a per possession basis, but when you've got a guy in Kevin Miller who's able to give you 20 or 19 points per game, BJ Edwards and all these other guys, they're able to shoot it really well from three.
43:35
I think that you get a high-scoring shootout and a game that SMU gets the job done in. So like SMU laying a point and a half, two points, and I like that over about 160 and a half.
43:44
All right, pick number four is a conference tournament game. The Northeast Conference tournament begins today. This is actually a quarterfinal already right out of the chute. Fairleigh Dickinson and Mercyhurst.
43:53
What do you got? Yep, and this is not the Fairleigh Dickinson team that knocked off Purdue a few years ago. That is very clear.
44:00
They're outside the top 350 in terms of total possessions per game, outside the top 300 with regards to their three-point shooting percentage.
44:06
Mercyhurst, top 125 team in terms of points allowed on a per possession basis. They do a nice job in terms of generating turnovers. Khadeer Martin is the guy that gives you two and a half blocks per contest.
44:15
I think that they turn this game into a slog, and I like Mercyhurst to be able to get the job done here against a Fairleigh Dickinson team that doesn't have the same backcourt as in past years.
44:23
I laid four and a half with Mercyhurst and like a total of 132 to the under. All right, and finally, Big East game. Obviously, Big East tournament starts next week.
44:30
Villanova's a three and a half point favorite against the Demon Deacons. What do you have? Yep, and with DePaul, they've actually been very good on defense. Not a lot of offense.
44:40
248th in terms of points scored on a per possession basis. Villanova should have the top rebounder in Duke Fredenburg.
44:45
Right now, seeing that line at three and a half, willing to lay it with Villanova despite DePaul being at against the spread juggernaut. Villanova three and a half point favorite over DePaul in that ball game.
44:53
Those are Greg Peterson's fab five. Greg, thanks for the beer recommendation. Thanks for the college basketball. We'll talk to you next week. Always fun. Thank you, Gil. Greg Peterson, everybody.
45:04
Coming back, uh, MLB draft
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